Analysis Of QQQ, IWM & DIA ETF’s Price:200 Day Moving Average In Relation To Their Peaks & Troughs Over The Past Five Years

Following yesterday’s analysis of SPY ETF’s relationship between their Price & 200 Day Moving Average it seemed worthwhile to apply the same methodology to the other three major indexes.

The methodology for obtaining the data for each index is the same as the one outlined in the link above (for those who missed the SPY post), seeking to find how peaks & troughs of the major index ETF’s have been impacted both by time between the two points & distance covered in the declines based on the relationship between the securities’ prices & 200 day moving averages on the day of the peak.

QQQ ETF’s Price:200 Day Moving Average’s Relationship To Peaks & Troughs Over The Past Five Years

Analyzing The Relationship Between QQQ ETF’s Price & Its 200 Day Moving Average In Relation To Its Peaks & Troughs Over The Past Five Years
Analyzing The Relationship Between QQQ ETF’s Price & Its 200 Day Moving Average In Relation To Its Peaks & Troughs Over The Past Five Years

Some interesting findings on QQQ from the past five years:

The average approximated distance between the 200 Day Moving Average & price was -11.41% for all dates used, but the average for all differences that were 10%+ between the 200 DMA & price was -16.7%.

The average decline for all peaks & troughs was -15.32%, while the average decline from all peaks & troughs when the price was 10%+ higher than the 200 DMA was slightly better at -14.35%.

The average number of days between all peaks & troughs considered in the table was 42.38, but when the price was 10%+ above the 200 DMA the troughs came in 2 days sooner at 40 days.

QQQ’s most recent peak was at $449.34 while their 200 DMA was $386.63, which was reached on 3/21/24 (same date as SPY) & reflects a -13.96% difference between their price & their 200 day moving average.

Applying the average days between peaks & troughs, that would result in a trough 40-43 days out, which would fall in the range of 4/30/24 to 5/2/24.

QQQ ETF – Invesco QQQ Trust ETF’s Technical Performance Over The Past Five Years
QQQ ETF – Invesco QQQ Trust ETF’s Technical Performance Over The Past Five Years

IWM ETF’s Price:200 Day Moving Average’s Relationship To Peaks & Troughs Over The Past Five Years

Analyzing The Relationship Between IWM ETF’s Price & Its 200 Day Moving Average In Relation To Its Peaks & Troughs Over The Past Five Years
Analyzing The Relationship Between IWM ETF’s Price & Its 200 Day Moving Average In Relation To Its Peaks & Troughs Over The Past Five Years

The average approximate distance between IWM’s price & 200 day moving average was -7.59%, but when only looking at days with a 10%+ range between them it becomes -17.97%.

Oddly enough (due to the more oscillating in a range nature we frequently note in our weekly posts compared to SPY & QQQ), the average declines for all dates included in IWM’s data is -16.41% peak-to-trough, while when the difference between price & 200 DMA is 10%+ the decline is reduced to only -9.6% on average.

This relation continues when applied to the number of days between peaks & troughs, with the average for all days being 46.46, while when only counting the days where the price peak occurred while the price was 10%+ different from the 200 DMA the number of days between peak & trough is reduced to only 35.33.

IWM‘s most recent peak was on 3/8/2024 at $209.88/share while their 200 DMA was ~$184.86, reflecting a -11.92% difference between the price & 200 DMA.

Applying the average days between peaks & troughs results in a rather wide date range, where 4/12/24 would be about where a 10%+ spread on price:200 DMA would be the case, to 4/23/24 using the average for all peaks & troughs.

IWM ETF – iShares Russell 2000 ETF’s Technical Performance Over The Past Five Years
IWM ETF – iShares Russell 2000 ETF’s Technical Performance Over The Past Five Years

DIA ETF’s Price:200 Day Moving Average’s Relationship To Peaks & Troughs Over The Past Five Years

Analyzing The Relationship Between DIA ETF’s Price & Its 200 Day Moving Average In Relation To Its Peaks & Troughs Over The Past Five Years
Analyzing The Relationship Between DIA ETF’s Price & Its 200 Day Moving Average In Relation To Its Peaks & Troughs Over The Past Five Years

The average distance between DIA‘s price & 200 DMA is -6.43% for all dates in the table above, but when only averaging dates with a 10%+ spread between the two it becomes -10.83%.

The average decline between all peaks & troughs above is -13.5%, while when the spread between the price & 200 DMA is 10%+ it goes down to only -10.34% on average.

The average number of days between peaks & troughs in the table above is 51.1, but when the spread between the price & 200 DMA is 10%+ it increases by a calendar week to 58.

DIA’s most recent peak was 3/21/24 at $398.82/share, while their 200 DMA was $352.6, which is a spread of -11.59% between the two.

Applying the average number of days between all peaks & troughs results in 5/11/24, while using only the dates with the 10%+ spread between price & 200 DMA results in an estimated average date of 58.

While this is not an exact science & is relying on averages across time periods that were all very different, it is certainly food for thought & something interesting to keep an eye on over the next couple of months.

DIA ETF – SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF’s Technical Performance Over The Past Five Years
DIA ETF – SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF’s Technical Performance Over The Past Five Years

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACTS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM OR DIA AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE – THIS IS NOT INVESTING ADVICE, JUST SOMETHING INTERESTING TO LOOK AT WHILE DOING YOUR OWN DUE DILIGENCE – ALL DATA WAS GATHERED VIA STOCKCHARTS.COM ***

Analysis Of SPY ETF’s Price:200 Day Moving Average In Relation To Its Peaks & Troughs Over The Past Five Years

This morning while looking at charts I took a look into the relationship between the price level of SPY at various peaks over the past 5 years in relation to where the 200 day moving average was (approximated via the “inspect chart” for each date) at the time.

After calculating the percent change from price to 200 DMA the next closest major trough was added in with the total percent decline between the peak & trough prices & then counted the total days that were between the two dates (with the option of “Include End Date” selected from the date counter).

Analyzing The Relationship Between SPY ETF's Price & Its 200 Day Moving Average In Relation To Its Peaks & Troughs Over The Past Five Years
Analyzing The Relationship Between SPY ETF’s Price & Its 200 Day Moving Average In Relation To Its Peaks & Troughs Over The Past Five Years

Some of the interesting findings:

The average approximated distance between the 200 Day Moving Average & the price was -8 .24% for all dates used, but the average for all differences that were 10%+ was -12.84% between the price & the 200 DMA.

The average decline for all peaks & troughs was -14.93%, while the average decline for all peaks & troughs when the price was 10%+ above the 200 DMA was -18.79%.

The average number of days between all peaks & troughs was 47.33, while the average number of days between all peaks & troughs for dates when the 200 DMA was -10%+ below the current SPY share price was 49.67.

SPY’s most recent peak price was $524.11 while their 200 DMA was ~$453.63, which was reached on 3/21/2024 & reflects a ~-13.45% difference between the price & the 200 day moving average.

Applying the average days between peaks & troughs, that would result in the next trough being 5/7/24 (5/8/24 technically, as the 7th is a Sunday), or 5/9-5/10.

While this is not an exact science & is relying on averages across time periods that were all very different, it is certainly food for thought & something interesting to keep an eye on over the next month & a half.

SPY ETF - SPDR S&P 500 ETF's Technical Performance Over The Past Five Years
SPY ETF – SPDR S&P 500 ETF’s Technical Performance Over The Past Five Years

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE – ALL DATA WAS GATHERED VIA STOCKCHARTS.COM ***

Weekly Stock & ETF Market Review 3/24/2024

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF gained +2.23% last week, faring second best of the major four indexes in a week that was bullish across the board.

SPY ETF - SPDR S&P 500 ETF's Technical Performance Over The Past Year
SPY ETF – SPDR S&P 500 ETF’s Technical Performance Over The Past Year

Their RSI is trending back from near-overbought conditions & is currently at 67.93, while their MACD is currently bullish, but looking to be losing steam & setting up for a bearish crossover in the coming sessions.

Volumes were -11.69% below average last week compared to the year prior (69,050,161 vs. 78,190,894), with Monday’s advancing session being the strongest volume day, while Friday’s declines into the weekend came in a close second highest for the week.

Monday kicked the week off on an uncertain note, with a spinning top candle that stayed above the 10 day moving average‘s support, however it closed lower than it opened, indicating that there was some risk-aversion.

However, Tuesday’s bullish engulfing candle showed that the bulls were back in the marketplace running up to Wednesday’s FOMC announcement.

Tuesday’s candle tested lower & temporarily dipped its lower shadow below the 10 DMA, but was able to close higher.

Wednesday saw a bullish advancing session on the heels of the interest rate announcement, where Chair Powell hinted that there is still a possibility of three rate cuts in 2024 (although he did not explicitly say it), which got market participants excited.

Thursday started off with a gap up & tested higher, setting a new all-time high for SPY, but began to signal trouble for the week’s rally, as the session closed lower than it opened, resulting in a filled candle.

This set the stage for Friday’s risk-off declines going into the weekend, which also indicated further uncertainty as the day resulted in a narrow-range spinning top candle on a -0.19% decline for the day.

The high volume level of Friday’s session compared to the other sessions of the week will be something to keep an eye on going into this week, where we will see if it was just a one-day risk off/profit taking event, or if the losses will spark a wave of near-term declines.

As has been mentioned in previous weeks’ posts, the 10 DMA will be an area to watch closely, where it is currently ~-1.2% below Friday’s closing price acting as the first line of support.

It will also be important to keep an eye on the 50 day moving average as well, which is currently the third support touch-point, but advancing higher daily & currently sits ~-3% below the 10 DMA.

As the two moving averages draw nearer to one another we will either be seeing a consolidation of sorts, or else declines that will cause them to act as resistance levels applying downward pressure on the price of SPY.

Their Average True Range has been trending downward the past few days due to the week’s lack of volatility, but it is likely to begin perking up this week.

SPY has support at the $515.49 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $501.94 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $498.30 (50 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $489.20/share (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), with resistance at the $524.11/share (All-Time High; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price level.

SPY ETF's Price Level:Volume Sentiment Over The Past 2-3 Years
SPY ETF’s Price Level:Volume Sentiment Over The Past 2-3 Years

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF advanced +3.01% last week, as market participants rushed into the tech-heavy index after hearing that there may still possibly be three FOMC interest rate cuts lined up for the remainder of this year.

QQQ ETF - Invesco QQQ Trust ETF's Technical Performance Over The Past Year
QQQ ETF – Invesco QQQ Trust ETF’s Technical Performance Over The Past Year

Their RSI is currently 60.47, but is beginning to show signs of rolling over bearishly in the near-term, while their MACD is currently bullish, but relatively muted & hugging the signal line tight, indicating a lack of bullish strength & a likely bearish crossover around the near-term corner.

Volumes were very low last week at -19.01% below average compared to the year prior (40,263,908 vs. 49,715,249), which is problematic due to the fact that last week was five advancing sessions for QQQ.

The lack of volume shows significant weariness about QQQ being at these high price levels, as it recently reached a new all-time high on Thursday following the FOMC announcement & press conference (like SPY).

Another troubling trend with last week’s volume is that it was highest at the beginning of the week & began to decline as the week wore on, until Friday’s lowest volume session of the week.

Monday saw the highest volume on a session marked with uncertainty, as the day opened above the support of the 10 day moving average, tested higher, and ultimately settled lower than the day’s opening price, but above the closing price of Friday & beneath the resistance of the 10 DMA.

Tuesday opened even lower beneath the 10 day moving average’s resistance, tested lower (lower shadow on day’s candle), before closing higher, closely aligned with the 10 DMA.

Wednesday began on a cautious note as QQQ opened in line with the 10 DMA’s support, tested beneath it, before ultimately rallying into the close following the FOMC rate decision.

Thursday is where the weakness began to be exposed however, as the session gapped higher, tested slightly higher than the open, before resulting in a filled candle due to the day’s close being lower than the open.

It is also worth noting that Thursday’s volume was lower than the tight volume range the first three days of the week shared.

Friday continued the theme of uncertainty & fear beginning to creep into the NASDAQ, as the session closed with very low volume on a spinning top candle, but up +0.11% on the day.

Due to the consolidation range of the previous two weeks & Thursday’s gap up QQQ is a bit better positioned away from its 10 & 50 day moving average’s support levels (~-1.3% from Friday’s close for the 10 DMA; ~-3.5% for the 50 DMA) & it has more near-term support levels that may ease any declines in the near-future.

This week will require a close eye on volumes to see if profits are taken from last week’s 5 straight advancing sessions, as well as a look at the relationship between price level:10 DMA, price level:50 DMA & 10:50 DMA relationships to see what sort of near-term support/resistance levels influence the broader direction of QQQ & the NASDAQ 100.

Their Average True Range has been declining recently, as the past week featured very little volatility, and any uptick in that will be important to keep an eye on in the event that it spurs a correction in pricing.

QQQ has support at the $445.99 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 5:1), $440.35 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $438.56 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.27:1) & $433.08/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.5:1), with resistance at the $449.34/share (All-Time High; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price level.

QQQ ETF's Price Level:Volume Sentiment Over The Past 2-3 Years
QQQ ETF’s Price Level:Volume Sentiment Over The Past 2-3 Years

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF added +1.57% last week, as investors were not as eager to dive into small cap names as they had been in weeks prior.

IWM ETF - iShares Russell 2000 ETF's Technical Performance Over The Past Year
IWM ETF – iShares Russell 2000 ETF’s Technical Performance Over The Past Year

Their RSI is trending back towards the neutral level & currently sits at 55.30, while their MACD is still bearish & approaching the signal line weakly, looking as though it won’t have the strength to cross over bullishly this week & will continue on bearishly.

Volumes were +5.85% above average last week compared to the year prior (36,542,969 vs. 34,524,424), most attributed to Wednesday & Thursday’s advancing session volume after the FOMC interest rate decision announcement, which does not necessarily indicate that there is much strong sentiment in IWM currently.

Monday kicked the week off on a downhill note, with a declining session on relatively muted volume indicating that there was not much in terms of interest & bullish sentiment among market participants.

Tuesday signaled a glimmer of hope, but still no rush by the bulls as the session advanced, but on volumes that were near as weak as Monday’s, as investors were still skeptical of the IWM with the FOMC interest rate decision looming.

Wednesday opened below Tuesday’s close, tested a bit lower, before rallying on the announcement from the Fed & Chair Powell’s press conference, busting through the resistance of the 10 day moving average, testing higher, but ultimately settling below the day’s highs, leading to the upper shadow on the session’s candle.

This sentiment carried into Thursday, where the session gapped up, but ultimately sent warning signs for IWM, as the day’s candle resulted in a shooting star (near-term bearish implications) on volumes that were just below the levels seen the day before in the wide-range session rally of Wednesday.

Friday ended the week on a risk-off/profit taking note, but the wide range of the day’s candle & limited upper shadow with no lower shadow has further near-term bearish implication for IWM.

Much like SPY & QQQ, IWM’s fate this week will be heavily dependent on how their moving averages hold up as support, with the price in close proximity to the 10 DMA & the 50 DMA trailing just behind it.

The closer that the two moving averages get, the more likely it is that we will be a cool down period & should their support be broken it will be important to watch how the downwards pressure that their resistance causes impacts IWM’s price performance.

IWM has a decent amount of nearby support levels that can help slow down any declines in the near-term, but caution should be taken this week, particularly with how jumpy prices have been over the past few weeks.

Their Average True Range has flattened out after being in an uptrend in the wake of the previous week’s volatility, but should the 10 DMA’s support break down expect to see it increase & there to be a jump in volatility for IWM.

IWM has support at the $204.97 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.71:1), $204.25 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.71:1), $203.86 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.58:1) & $199.16/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.18:1), with resistance at the $209.88/share (52-Week High; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price level.

IWM ETF's Price Level:Volume Sentiment Over The Past 2-3 Years
IWM ETF’s Price Level:Volume Sentiment Over The Past 2-3 Years

DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF climbed +1.95% last week, with the bulk of the advances thanks to Wednesday & Thursday’s sessions.

DIA ETF - SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF's Technical Performance Over The Past Year
DIA ETF – SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF’s Technical Performance Over The Past Year

Their RSI is currently 62.23 as it comes down from overbought conditions & their MACD is currently bullish, but beginning to show signs of curling over towards the signal line which would result in a bearish crossover in the near-term.

Volumes were +3.56% above average last week compared to the year prior (3,537,777 vs. 3,416,152), which is interesting given that aside from Wednesday & Thursday the rest of the week contained relatively low volume, signaling that market participants are beginning to become exhausted & losing interest in adding risk to DIA.

Monday kicked the week off on very muted volume & a rather uncertain note, as the day opened above the 10 day moving average’s support, tested a bit higher, before ultimately closing lower than its open & beneath the resistance of the 10 DMA.

Tuesday opened about where Monday left off, tested a bit lower (lower shadow), before surging beyond the 10 DMA, but volumes were still not indicative of much strength behind the move in price.

Wednesday opened above the 10 DMA, tested lower but the support level was able to hold up & ultimately power prices higher once the FOMC announcement took place.

An observation about Wednesday’s session for DIA: there was a very small upper shadow, signaling that there was not much appetite for risk much higher than the day’s close.

Still, Thursday saw a gap higher, which will it did test a bit lower than where it opened, went on to result in a new all-time high being reached.

Wednesday had the highest volume of the week, with Thursday’s session following closely behind it leading into Friday’s risk-off/profit taking session that filled most of the window created by Thursday’s gap up.

Friday’s volumes imply that there is still more risk-off sentiment in the market, which will be something for market participants to keep an eye on in the coming week.

They also will want to be mindful of the 10 & 50 day moving averages, which are currently drawing nearer to both one another & the current price level.

DIA has limited near-term support levels due to the nature of the slow/steady gains that they have made in 2024, as well as their consolidation periods that have marked the better parts of February & March of 2024 following their aggressive ascent that took place between late October & mid-December of 2023.

Their Average True Range has ticked up following the latter half of last week as volatility has expanded since the aforementioned consolidation range(s).

Expect to see a continued uptick in DIA ATR, as volatility looks to be increasing in the near-term.

DIA has support at the $390.97 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $387.87 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $384.66 (50 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $378.95/share (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), with resistance at the $398.82/share (All-Time High; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price level.

DIA ETF's Price Level:Volume Sentiment Over The Past 3-4 Years
DIA ETF’s Price Level:Volume Sentiment Over The Past 3-4 Years

The Week Ahead

Monday kicks the week off with New Home Sales data at 10 am.

There are no earnings reports of importance being released on Monday.

Durable-Goods Orders & Durable-Goods minus Transportation data is released Tuesday at 8:30 am, followed by S&P Case-Schiller Home Price Index (20 Cities) data at 9 am & Consumer Confidence data at 10 am.

Tuesday morning before the bell’s earnings calls include GDS Holdings, McCormick, & TD Synnex, with Concentrix, GameStop, nCino & Progress Software all scheduled to report earnings after the day’s closing bell.

There are no major economic data announcements scheduled for Wednesday.

Wednesday morning before the bell’s earnings reports include Cintas, Paychex & UniFirst, with Braze, H.B. Fuller, Jefferies, MillerKnoll, Sprinklr & Verint Systems scheduled to report earnings after the closing bell.

Thursday brings us Initial Jobless Claims & GDP (2nd Revision) data at 8:30 am, Chicago Business Barometer (PMI) data at 9:45 am & Pending Home Sales & Consumer Sentiment (Final) data at 10 am.

Walgreens & BRP are scheduled to report earnings before the opening bell on Thursday, followed by Oxford Industries, Semtech, Sharecare, Torrid & Vuzix reporting after the day’s closing bell.

The week winds down Friday with Advanced U.S. Trade Balance in goods, Advanced Retail Inventories, Personal Income (Nominal), Personal Spending (Nominal), PCE Index, Core PCE Index, Core PCE Index, PCE (Year-over-Year) & Core PCE (Year-over-Year) data at 8:30 am.

Friday will not have any earnings reports due to the market being closed for Good Friday.

See you back here next week!

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM OR DIA AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***

Price Level:Volume Sentiment Analysis For SPY, QQQ, IWM & DIA ETFs 3/19/2024

With most market indexes sitting near all-time highs & the FOMC interest rate decision being announced tomorrow, it is worth taking a look at the strength of each support & resistance level of the major four indexes.

Doing so can help market participants be prepared if prices should go back to re-test each level, as it shows the sentiment that market participants had in recent history at the same valuation levels.

This document will focus on the support & resistance levels from the past year for SPY (S&P 500), QQQ (NASDAQ 100), IWM (Russell 2000) & DIA (Dow Jones Industrial Average); for a technical analysis of each index ETF’s recent performance please see yesterday’s note.

Each section below shows the past year’s chart for each of the above mentioned ETF’s, as well as tables listing their support & resistance levels, with what their historic volume sentiment has been at each, followed by a list of volume sentiments for price blocks that they have traded at.

SPY, QQQ & IWM has ~2-3 years worth of data in their numbers, while DIA has ~3-4 years worth of data for their numbers.

Note that “NULL, 0:0*” values denote areas that each name has traded at but with limited volume data to work with from a comparison standpoint in terms of creating a ratio of buyers:sellers (or vice versa).

Also, prices that do have a ratio of buyers:sellers (or vice versa) where the denominator is 0 are denoted with an asterisk “*” as well.

In the written lists of the price levels & volume sentiments the price levels that contain support & resistance levels are marked in BOLD.

This is not intended to serve as investing advice, but rather as a barometer or compass rose that can be added into your due diligence toolkit for added context in assessing the strength or weakness of upcoming support or resistance levels.

Price Level:Volume Sentiment Analysis For SPY (S&P 500) ETF

SPY ETF - SPDR S&P 500 ETF'S Technical Performance Over The Past Year
SPY ETF – SPDR S&P 500 ETF’S Technical Performance Over The Past Year

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF has seen consistent growth over the past year, advancing 32.59% (ex-distributions).

Due to their rapid ascent that began in November of 2023 their support touch-points are most densely situated near the bottom of their chart, which makes it important to have an idea as to how the ones closer to their current price will hold up in the event of a re-test.

Below is the price level:volume sentiment analysis for SPY using data from the past ~2-3 years.

SPY ETF'S Price Level:Volume Sentiment Over The Past ~2 Years, With Sentiments For The Past Year's Support & Resistance Levels
SPY ETF’S Price Level:Volume Sentiment Over The Past ~2 Years, With Sentiments For The Past Year’s Support & Resistance Levels

$520 – NULL – 0:0*; +1.39% From Monday’s Closing Level

$515 – NULL – 0:0*; +0.42% From Monday’s Closing Level

$510 – NULL – 0:0*; -0.56% From Monday’s Closing Level – Current Price Level & 10 Day Moving Average**

$505 – NULL – 0:0*; -1.53% From Monday’s Closing Level

$500 – NULL – 0:0*; -2.51% From Monday’s Closing Level

$496 – NULL – 0:0*; -3.29% From Monday’s Closing Level

$492 – NULL – 0:0*; -4.07% From Monday’s Closing Level – 50 Day Moving Average*

$488 – NULL – 0:0*; -4.85% From Monday’s Closing Level

$484 – NULL – 0:0*; -5.63% From Monday’s Closing Level

$480 – NULL – 0:0*; -6.41% From Monday’s Closing Level

$476 – NULL – 0:0*; -7.19% From Monday’s Closing Level

$472 – NULL – 0:0*; -7.97% From Monday’s Closing Level

$468 – NULL – 0:0*; -8.75% From Monday’s Closing Level

$464 – NULL – 0:0*; -9.53% From Monday’s Closing Level

$460 – NULL – 0:0*; -10.31% From Monday’s Closing Level

$456 – NULL – 0:0*; -11.09% From Monday’s Closing Level

$452 – Buyers – 1.56:1; -11.87% From Monday’s Closing Level – 200 Day Moving Average*

$448 – Buyers – 3.6:1; -12.65% From Monday’s Closing Level

$444 – Buyers – 1.87:1; -13.43% From Monday’s Closing Level

$440 – Sellers – 1.14:1; -14.21% From Monday’s Closing Level

$436 – Buyers – 1.57:1; -14.99% From Monday’s Closing Level

$432 – Buyers – 1.09:1; -15.77% From Monday’s Closing Level

$428 – Sellers – 1.23:1; -16.55% From Monday’s Closing Level

$424 – Sellers – 1.11:1; -17.33% From Monday’s Closing Level

$420 – Sellers – 1.8:1; -18.11% From Monday’s Closing Level

$416 – Sellers – 1.41:1; -18.89% From Monday’s Closing Level

$412 – Buyers – 1.41:1; -19.67% From Monday’s Closing Level

$408 – Buyers – 2:1; -20.45% From Monday’s Closing Level

$404 – Sellers – 1.23:1; -21.23% From Monday’s Closing Level

$400 – Sellers – 4.83:1; -22.01% From Monday’s Closing Level

$396 – Buyers – 1.26:1; -22.79% From Monday’s Closing Level

$392 – Buyers – 1.48:1; -23.57% From Monday’s Closing Level

$388 – Buyers – 1.94:1; -24.35% From Monday’s Closing Level

$384 – Sellers – 1.54:1; -25.13% From Monday’s Closing Level

$380 – Sellers – 2.74:1; -25.91% From Monday’s Closing Level

$376 – Sellers – 1.85:1; -26.69% From Monday’s Closing Level

$372 – Sellers – 1.44:1; -27.47% From Monday’s Closing Level

$368 – Sellers – 1.39:1; -28.25% From Monday’s Closing Level

$364 – Sellers – 2.5:1; -29.03% From Monday’s Closing Level

$360 – Sellers – 1.5:1; -29.81% From Monday’s Closing Level

$356 – Buyers – 1.14:1; -30.59% From Monday’s Closing Level

$352 – Sellers – 1:0*; -31.37% From Monday’s Closing Level

$348 – Sellers – 1.6:0*; -32.93% From Monday’s Closing Level

SPY ETF'S Price Level:Volume Sentiment Over The Past ~2 Years
SPY ETF’S Price Level:Volume Sentiment Over The Past ~2 Years
SPY ETF'S Price Level:Volume Sentiment Over The Past ~2 Years
SPY ETF’S Price Level:Volume Sentiment Over The Past ~2 Years
SPY ETF'S Price Level:Volume Sentiment Over The Past ~2 Years
SPY ETF’S Price Level:Volume Sentiment Over The Past ~2 Years

Price Level:Volume Sentiment Analysis For QQQ (NASDAQ 100) ETF

QQQ ETF - Invesco QQQ Trust ETF's Technical performance Over The Past Year
QQQ ETF – Invesco QQQ Trust ETF’s Technical Performance Over The Past Year

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF has also had a strong year, advancing +44.11% over the past year (ex-distributions).

They have made their gains in a less rapidly rising manner than SPY, which does give them more support closer to their current price, but given the nature of the tech-heavy index (QQQ) vs. the S&P 500 (SPY) it will be important to understand the strength of these touch-points.

QQQ is more at risk of a more serious decline based on fundamentals compared to SPY, making it worth reviewing the tables below.

QQQ ETF's Price Level:Volume Sentiment For The Past ~2 Years, With Sentiments For The Past Year's Support & Resistance Levels
QQQ ETF’s Price Level:Volume Sentiment For The Past ~2 Years, With Sentiments For The Past Year’s Support & Resistance Levels

$452 – NULL – 0:0*; +3.32% From Monday’s Closing Level

$448 – NULL – 0:0*; +2.4% From Monday’s Closing Level

$444 – Buyers – 5:1; +1.49% From Monday’s Closing Level

$440 -NULL – 0:0*; +0.58% From Monday’s Closing Level

$436 – Sellers – 1.27:1; -0.34% From Monday’s Closing Level – Current Price Level & 10 Day Moving Average**

$432 – Buyers – 1.5:1; -1.25% From Monday’s Closing Level

$428 – Sellers – 1.07:1; -2.17% From Monday’s Closing Level

$424 – Sellers – 1.9:1; -3.08% From Monday’s Closing Level – 50 Day Moving Average*

$420 – Buyers – 5.5:1; -4% From Monday’s Closing Level

$416 – Sellers – 0.8:0*; -4.91% From Monday’s Closing Level

$412 – Buyers – 0.6:0*; -5.82% From Monday’s Closing Level

$408 – Buyers – 2.33:1; -6.74% From Monday’s Closing Level

$404 – Buyers – 5.2:1; -7.65% From Monday’s Closing Level

$400 – Sellers – 2.29:1; -8.57% From Monday’s Closing Level

$396 – Buyers – 1.11:1; -9.48% From Monday’s Closing Level

$392 – Buyers – 0.4:0*; -10.4% From Monday’s Closing Level

$388 – Buyers – 3.22:1; -11.31% From Monday’s Closing Level

$384 – Buyers – 1.22:1; -12.22% From Monday’s Closing Level – 200 Day Moving Average*

$380 – Buyers – 4:1; -13.14% From Monday’s Closing Level

$376 – Buyers – 1.16:1; -14.05% From Monday’s Closing Level

$372 – Sellers – 1.02:1; -14.97% From Monday’s Closing Level

$368 – Buyers – 1.04:1; -15.88% From Monday’s Closing Level

$364 – Buyers – 1.33:1; -16.8% From Monday’s Closing Level

$360 – Buyers – 1.42:1; -17.71% From Monday’s Closing Level

$356 – Sellers – 1.44:1; -18.62% From Monday’s Closing Level

$352 – Buyers – 1.36:1; -19.54% From Monday’s Closing Level

$348 – Buyers – 1.61:1; -20.45% From Monday’s Closing Level

$344 – Sellers – 1.61:1; -21.37% From Monday’s Closing Level

$340 – Buyers – 2.53:1; -22.28% From Monday’s Closing Level

$336 – Sellers – 2.53:1; -23.2% From Monday’s Closing Level

$332 – Buyers – 1.1:1; -24.11% From Monday’s Closing Level

$328 – Sellers – 1.36:1; -25.03% From Monday’s Closing Level

$324 – Buyers -2.24:1; -25.94% From Monday’s Closing Level

$320 – Buyers – 1.53:1; -26.85% From Monday’s Closing Level

$316 – Sellers – 1.52:1; -27.77% From Monday’s Closing Level

$312 – Sellers – 2.12:1; -28.68% From Monday’s Closing Level

$308 – Sellers – 1.02:1; -29.6% From Monday’s Closing Level

$304 – Buyers – 1.07:1; -30.51% From Monday’s Closing Level

$300 – Sellers – 1.35:1; -31.43% From Monday’s Closing Level

$296 – Buyers – 2.25:1; -32.34% From Monday’s Closing Level

$292 – Buyers – 1.68:1; -33.25% From Monday’s Closing Level

$288 – Sellers – 1.19:1; -34.17% From Monday’s Closing Level

$284 – Sellers – 2:1; -35.08% From Monday’s Closing Level

$280 – Buyers – 1.06:1; -36% From Monday’s Closing Level

$276 – Buyers – 1.03:1; -36.91% From Monday’s Closing Level

$272 – Sellers – 1.5:1; -37.83% From Monday’s Closing Level

$268 – Buyers – 1.13:1; -38.74% From Monday’s Closing Level

$264 – Sellers – 1.21:1; -39.65% From Monday’s Closing Level

$260 – Sellers – 3.46:1; -40.57% From Monday’s Closing Level

$256 – Sellers – 2.7:0*; -41.48% From Monday’s Closing Level

QQQ ETF's Price Level:Volume Sentiment For The Past ~2 Years
QQQ ETF’s Price Level:Volume Sentiment For The Past ~2 Years
QQQ ETF's Price Level:Volume Sentiment For The Past ~2 Years
QQQ ETF’s Price Level:Volume Sentiment For The Past ~2 Years
QQQ ETF's Price Level:Volume Sentiment For The Past ~2 Years
QQQ ETF’s Price Level:Volume Sentiment For The Past ~2 Years

Price Level:Volume Sentiment Analysis For IWM (Russell 2000) ETF

IWM ETF - iShares Russell 2000 ETF's Technical Performance Over The Past Year
IWM ETF – iShares Russell 2000 ETF’s Technical Performance Over The Past Year

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF has advanced +18.5% over the past year, as it tends to oscillate more around a centralized price level compared to the rapid uphill sloped growth of SPY or QQQ.

This provides it with more support levels between its current price & its 52-week low than the previous two index ETFs have in the event of a near-term correction.

However, due to the nature of small caps, in a larger move downward across the board they will not be immune from declines & as a result the tables below are important to review.

IWM ETF's Price Level:Volume Sentiment From The Past ~2 Years, With Sentiments For The Past Year's Support & Resistance Levels
IWM ETF’s Price Level:Volume Sentiment From The Past ~2 Years, With Sentiments For The Past Year’s Support & Resistance Levels

$212 – NULL – 0:0*; +5.34% From Monday’s Closing Level

$208 – NULL – 0:0*; +3.35% From Monday’s Closing Level

$204 – Buyers – 3.71:1; +1.37% From Monday’s Closing Level – 10 Day Moving Average*

$200 – Buyers – 1.58:1; -0.62% From Monday’s Closing Level – Current Price Level*

$198 – Buyers – 3.18:1; -1.61% From Monday’s Closing Level – 50 Day Moving Average*

$196 – Buyers – 1.22:1; -2.61% From Monday’s Closing Level

$194 – Sellers – 1.21:1; -3.6% From Monday’s Closing Level

$192 – Sellers – 2.09:1; -4.6% From Monday’s Closing Level

$190 – Buyers – 1.58:1; -5.59% From Monday’s Closing Level

$188 – Sellers – 1.5:1; -6.58% From Monday’s Closing Level

$186 – Buyers – 3.62:1; -7.58% From Monday’s Closing Level – 200 Day Moving Average*

$184 – Buyers – 1.56:1; -8.57% From Monday’s Closing Level

$182 – Buyers – 1.03:1; -9.57% From Monday’s Closing Level

$180 – Sellers – 1.09:1; -10.56% From Monday’s Closing Level

$178 – Buyers – 1.40:1; -11.55% From Monday’s Closing Level

$176 – Buyers – 1.74:1; -12.55% From Monday’s Closing Level

$174 – Buyers – 1.17:1; -13.54% From Monday’s Closing Level

$172 – Buyers – 1.35:1; -14.53% From Monday’s Closing Level

$170 – Sellers – 2.15:1; -15.53% From Monday’s Closing Level

$168 – Sellers – 1.64:1; -16.52% From Monday’s Closing Level

$166 – Sellers – 1.27:1; -17.52% From Monday’s Closing Level

$164 – Sellers – 1.88:1; -18.51% From Monday’s Closing Level

$162 – Sellers – 1.11:1; -19.5% From Monday’s Closing Level

$160 – Sellers – 2.29:1; -20.5% From Monday’s Closing Level

IWM ETF's Price Level:Volume Sentiment From The Past ~2 Years
IWM ETF’s Price Level:Volume Sentiment From The Past ~2 Years
IWM ETF's Price Level:Volume Sentiment From The Past ~2 Years
IWM ETF’s Price Level:Volume Sentiment From The Past ~2 Years

Price Level:Volume Sentiment Analysis For DIA (Dow Jones Industrial Average) ETF

DIA ETF - SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF's Technical Performance Over The Past Year
DIA ETF – SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF’s Technical Performance Over The Past Year

DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF has advanced +23.55% over the past year (ex-distributions & much like SPY its current support levels are primarily concentrated well below its current price level in the wake of the rally that kicked off in November of 2023.

While DIA houses some of the largest stocks in the market, they are not immune to declines & investors should be prepared for how they may behave at the support levels outlined below in the event of a near-term re-test.

DIA ETF's Price Level:Volume Sentiment For The Past ~3-4 Years, With Sentiments For The Past Year's Support & Resistance Levels
DIA ETF’s Price Level:Volume Sentiment For The Past ~3-4 Years, With Sentiments For The Past Year’s Support & Resistance Levels

$396 – NULL – 0:0*; +2.13% From Monday’s Closing Level

$392 – NULL – 0:0*; +1.1% From Monday’s Closing Level

$388 – NULL – 0:0*; +0.07% From Monday’s Closing Level

$384 – NULL – 0:0*; -0.96% From Monday’s Closing Level – Current Price Level & 10 Day Moving Average**

$380 -NULL – 0:0*; -1.99% From Monday’s Closing Level – 50 Day Moving Average*

$376 – NULL – 0:0*; -3.03% From Monday’s Closing Level

$372 – NULL – 0:0*; -4.06% From Monday’s Closing Level

$368 – NULL – 0:0*; -5.09% From Monday’s Closing Level

$364 – NULL – 0:0*; -6.12% From Monday’s Closing Level

$360 – NULL – 0:0*; -7.15% From Monday’s Closing Level

$356 – NULL – 0:0*; -8.18% From Monday’s Closing Level

$352 – Buyers – 1.92:1; -9.22% From Monday’s Closing Level – 200 Day Moving Average*

$348 – Buyers – 1.87:1; -10.25% From Monday’s Closing Level

$344 – Sellers – 1.06:1; -11.28% From Monday’s Closing Level

$340 – Buyers – 2.17:1; -12.31% From Monday’s Closing Level

$336 – Buyers – 1.31:1; -13.34% From Monday’s Closing Level

$332 – Buyers – 1.26:1; -14.37% From Monday’s Closing Level

$328 – Sellers – 1.06:1; -15.41% From Monday’s Closing Level

$324 – Sellers – 1.26:1; -16.44% From Monday’s Closing Level

$320 – Sellers – 1.29:1; -17.47% From Monday’s Closing Level

$316 – Sellers – 1.25:1; -18.5% From Monday’s Closing Level

$312 – Sellers – 1.1:1; -19.53% From Monday’s Closing Level

$308 – Buyers – 1.23:1; -20.56% From Monday’s Closing Level

$304 – Buyers – 1.07:1; -21.59% From Monday’s Closing Level

$300 – Buyers – 1.19:1; -22.63% From Monday’s Closing Level

$296 – Buyers – 1.41:1; -23.66% From Monday’s Closing Level

$292 – Sellers – 1.78:1; -24.69% From Monday’s Closing Level

$288 – Even – 1:1; -25.72% From Monday’s Closing Level

$284 – Buyers – 1.25:1; -26.75% From Monday’s Closing Level

$280 – Sellers – 1.4:1; -27.78% From Monday’s Closing Level

$276 – Buyers – 1.17:1; -28.82% From Monday’s Closing Level

$272 – Buyers – 4:1; -29.85% From Monday’s Closing Level

$268 – Buyers – 2.33:1; -30.88% From Monday’s Closing Level

$264 – Sellers – 1.17:1; -31.91% From Monday’s Closing Level

$260 – Buyers – 1.72:1; -32.94% From Monday’s Closing Level

$256 – Buyers – 1.11:1; -33.97% From Monday’s Closing Level

$252 – Buyers – 1.5:1; -35.01% From Monday’s Closing Level

$248 – Buyers – 1.55:1; -36.04% From Monday’s Closing Level

$244- Buyers – 3.8:1; -37.07% From Monday’s Closing Level

$240 – Buyers – 1.5:1; -38.1% From Monday’s Closing Level

$236 – Buyers – 1.25:1; -39.13% From Monday’s Closing Level

$232 – Sellers – 4:1; -40.16% From Monday’s Closing Level

$228 – Buyers – 3:1; -41.2% From Monday’s Closing Level

$224 – Even – 1:1; -42.23% From Monday’s Closing Level

$220 – Buyers – 2.22:1; -43.26% From Monday’s Closing Level

$216 – Buyers – 1.22:1; -44.29% From Monday’s Closing Level

$212 – Sellers – 0.2:0*; -45.32% From Monday’s Closing Level

$208 – Buyers – 1.8:0*; -46.35% From Monday’s Closing Level

$204 – Sellers – 1.67:1; -47.39% From Monday’s Closing Level

$200 – Sellers – 0.6:0*; -48.42% From Monday’s Closing Level

$198 – Buyers – 0.4:0*; -48.93% From Monday’s Closing Level

$196 – Buyers – 4.5:1; -49.45% From Monday’s Closing Level

$194 – Sellers – 0.4:0*; -49.97% From Monday’s Closing Level

$192 – Buyers – 0.8:0*; -50.48% From Monday’s Closing Level

DIA ETF's Price Level:Volume Sentiment For The Past ~3-4 Years
DIA ETF’s Price Level:Volume Sentiment For The Past ~3-4 Years
DIA ETF's Price Level:Volume Sentiment For The Past ~3-4 Years
DIA ETF’s Price Level:Volume Sentiment For The Past ~3-4 Years
DIA ETF's Price Level:Volume Sentiment For The Past ~3-4 Years
DIA ETF’s Price Level:Volume Sentiment For The Past ~3-4 Years

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM OR DIA AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***

Weekly Stock & ETF Market Review 3/17/2024

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF dipped -0.06% last week, as the larger cap indexes were the safe-haven favorite of the major four.

SPY ETF - SPDR S&P 500 ETF's Technical Performance Over The Past Year
SPY ETF – SPDR S&P 500 ETF’s Technical Performance Over The Past Year

Their RSI is currently trending back towards neutral & sits at 58.09, while their MACD is bearish in the wake of last week’s volatility.

Volumes were +3.44% above average last week compared to the year prior (81,706,660 vs. 78,989,814), which should raise eyebrows given that most of the stronger volume was on declining days & the only bullish day of the week had the 3rd highest volume of the week.

This signals that there is skepticism among market participants about the strength of the recent rally & that profit taking is becoming more & more prevalent recently.

It is also noteworthy that the 52-week high that was set with the upper shadow of last Friday’s session’s candle was not challenged during the last of the week, with three sessions having highs in the $515/share range, unable to break towards the $516.62 level set Friday.

The bearish volume sentiment became especially strong on Thursday & Friday, signaling risk-off sentiment going into the weekend, which should be noted falls days before Wednesday’s FOMC interest rate decision announcement.

Based on how the support of the 10 day moving average broke down on Friday, it appears that some folks decided to hop out of the pool in the event of a hawkish/longer for higher message from Jerome Powell (there are also a handful of big earnings calls next week, all of which are outlined in the next section).

Monday kicked the week off on a bearish note, with the day opening at the 10 day moving average’s support level, testing lower (lower shadow), but ultimately closing higher, spurring the next three session’s last attempts higher.

Volumes were relatively light on Monday, before Tuesday opened higher, tested the 10 DMA’s support briefly, before climbing to the highest level of the week, also on lackluster volume levels though, which does not indicate much strength.

Wednesday & Thursday showed back-to-back hanging man candles, with Wednesday’s staying in a tight price range on the lowest volumes of the week, as investors were unsure of what to do leading up to Thursday’s PPI announcement.

Thursday brought more volatility & a major uptick in volume, ultimately having the most volume of the week.

Thursday also began to flash the warning lights that the uptrend is at least temporarily in trouble, as the lower shadow broke the 10 DMA’s support & set the stage for Friday’s decline that opened & closed below the 10 DMA.

Friday’s candle is also a doji, representing uncertainty by market participants, which is also cause for concern given how tight their daily range was & how high the declining volume was.

Their Average True Range is ticking higher, signaling an increase in volatility, which should likely continue higher given how tight the price range has been (~2%) following the gap up session three weeks ago at the end of February.

A key area to watch will be how price react to the resistance of the 10 day moving average, particularly if it applies more downwards pressure on their price level.

This is particularly important here as the next support level is ~2% below the current price of SPY, with the 50 day moving average’s support another percentage point lower.

One percent below that is the last standing support level before the next support level, which is 6.62% from Friday’s closing price & the other support levels below that have a decent amount of space between them.

The 200 day moving average will be moving higher to stand in as support should prices dip that low, but the current layout of support levels is sparse & may become problematic in the event of any decline of over 3% from Friday’s close.

To the upside, volumes & the highs of last week do not suggest much strength at these levels & the resistance looks sturdy & sustainable to force consolidation.

SPY has support at the $501.94 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $493.51 (50 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $489.20 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $467.07/share (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels, with resistance at the $511.03 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $516.62/share (All-Time High; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

SPY ETF's Price Level:Volume Sentiment Over The Past 2-3 Years
SPY ETF’s Price Level:Volume Sentiment Over The Past 2-3 Years

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF fell -1.16% last week, faring second worst of the major indexes for weekly performance.

QQQ ETF - Invesco QQQ Trust ETF's Technical Performance Over The Past Year
QQQ ETF – Invesco QQQ Trust ETF’s Technical Performance Over The Past Year

Their RSI has just crossed below the neutral level of 50 & currently sits at 48.92, while their MACD is bearish, as it has been throughout most of the month of March, but has recently been trending even more bearishly than at the beginning of the month.


Volumes were +5.14% above average last week compared to the week prior (52,864,720 vs. 50,281,257), and much like SPY are a cause for concern as there was slight upticks in volume, but the week resulted in minor loss/treading water.

Monday the week kicked off on a gap down that fell below the support of the 10 day moving average, and closed with a doji candle, indicating uncertainty & a lack of enthusiasm given the mediocre volume level.

Tuesday attempted to recover, with the market opening just below the 10 DMA’s resistance, dipping below Monday’s close, before roaring back to close higher & above the 10 DMA.

This was short lived however, as Wednesday delivered a low volume declining day that closed below the 10 DMA, leading into Thursday & Friday’s risk off action.

Thursday opened above the 10 DMA, but was unable to stay afloat & ultimately tested much lower before closing just beneath the 10 DMA’s resistance level.

It is worth noting that the declining volume of Thursday was just short of the advancing volume of Tuesday’s session, especially as we look at Friday.

Friday was purely risk off heading into the weekend, with a gap down that attempted higher on the upper shadow but was unable to reach Thursday’s close, nor the 10 DMA’s resistance & ultimately it sank &* settled lower on high volume.

Much like SPY, it appears that profit taking was the primary theme of the day & signals warning lights for next week.

QQQ’s Average True Range is also beginning to tick up, indicating a rise in volatility, which appears likely to continue into next week.

Like SPY, the 10 DMA’S resistance is an area to keep a close eye on heading into next week,particularly as the 50 day moving average is much closer to the 10 DMA & current price than SPY’s instance.

While QQQ has more densely distributed support levels below its current price, it still warrants the same caution as outlined for SPY in terms of potential downside action, especially if Wednesday’s FOMC meeting leads a sell off in the tech-heavy index.

QQQ has support at the $433.65 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.5:1), $429.85 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.07:1), $427.28 (50 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.9:1) & $421.63/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 5.5:1) price levels, with resistance at the $439.14 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.27:1), $439.77 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.27:1) & $448.64/share (All-Time High; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

QQQ ETF's Price Level:Volume Sentiment For The Past 2-3 Years
QQQ ETF’s Price Level:Volume Sentiment For The Past 2-3 Years

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF declined -2.14% last week, as investors shied away from the uncertainty that comes with small cap stocks.

IWM ETF - iShares Russell 2000 ETF's Technical Performance Over The Past Year
IWM ETF – iShares Russell 2000 ETF’s Technical Performance Over The Past Year

Their RSI is neutral at 50.84, while their MACD has been in bearish decline following the bearish start of last week.

Volumes were +6.64% above average last week compared to the year prior (37,049,240 vs. 34,724,721), which will be interesting to watch coming into a new week as the highest volume day was Friday’s advancing session.

The small cap index has moved much more in an oscillating fashion around a price range compared to the other members of the big 4 indexes, meaning that their recent price action will be different compared to SPY, QQQ & DIA to a degree.

Monday kicked the week off with a move downward on very low volume, signaling bearishness, but with a kick of caution, as the price still managed to settle at the 10 day moving average’s support.

Tuesday had more market participants out than Monday, moving still bearishly for the day, but on a wide-range, high-wave session based on the size of the candle’s long lower & upper shadows.

This shows peak uncertainty about where to value IWM & its components, as there was a lot of motion on the up & downside, but volumes were not large enough to write home about & the open & close were about at the same level & roughly in line with the 10 day moving average.

Wednesday showed a spark of hope to the upside, as the day opened in line with the open & close of Tuesday, but ultimately the support of the 10 DMA prevailed & forced the closing price higher.

The upper shadow indicates that there was a push higher, but the low volume on the day shows that not many market participants were willing to jump into the pool & push IWM meaningfully higher & indicates that there was some silent profit taking, despite the day’s session trending higher.

Thursday featured a bit of a shock for IWM, as the day opened near the 10 day moving average, ducked beneath it & tested down to almost the 50 day moving average’s support on the second highest volume of the week.

Unlike SPY & QQQ, investors poured into IWM on Friday, as the session had the week’s highest trading volume, as there was an appetite for risk in small cap stocks heading into the weekend.

This week it will be interesting to see how prices of IWM behave & if they are contained within the 10 & 50 day moving averages like they have been the past two sessions, or if they will be able to break out to the upside or downside.

Monday’s volume will give some clues to this, as if there is another high advancing volume session there runs a greater risk of profit taking which would force prices lower throughout the rest of the week.

IWM has support at the $200.10 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.58:1), $199.41 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.18:1), $198.43 (50 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.18:1) & $197.10/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.22:1) price levels, with resistance at the $204.76 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.71:1), $204.87 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.71:1), $205.49 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.71:1) & $210.41/share (52-Week High; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

IWM ETF's Price Level:Volume Sentiment Over The Past 2-3 Years
IWM ETF’s Price Level:Volume Sentiment Over The Past 2-3 Years

DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF inched downward -0.02% last week, and was the best performer out of the major four indexes, despite still closing the week down.

DIA ETF - SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF's Technical Performance Over The Past Year
DIA ETF – SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF’s Technical Performance Over The Past Year

Their RSI is relatively neutral & sits currently at 51.8, while their MACD has been bearish throughout the entire month of March.

Volumes were +6.44% above average last week compared to the year prior (3,660,660 vs. 3,439,304), which should be a cause for concern given that the two declining sessions at the end of the week had the heaviest trading volumes.

Monday kicked the week off with a hammer candle that was contained under the resistance of the 10 day moving average.

Tuesday was able to open around the 10 DMA, tested lower, but ultimately climbed higher & was able to close above the support of the 10 DMA.

Wednesday featured an uncertain note, as the lowest volume session of the week resulted in a spinning top that closed below its open on a bullish session.

This signaled that there is a lack of appetite for DIA & its components, which have had a very strong performance since November of 2023.

Thursday continued the theme of caution & led the risk-off into the weekend move with a high volume session that tested below the support of the 10 DMA but was able to gather enough support to close above it.

Friday though signaled the real weakness, where the second highest volume session of the week resulted in a spinning top that neither opened nor closed above the 10 DMA.

This is particularly worth noting as the 10 DMA’s resistance is now pushing down on prices as the 50 DMA is rising ~1.5% below the closing price of Friday.

That will be an area to keep an eye on in the coming week, as it will likely be the key to figuring out where prices close out on Friday.

DIA has support at the $382.74 (50 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $378.95 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $353.26 (200 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.92:1) & $351.92/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.87:1) price levels, with resistance at the $387.87 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $387.92 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $391.90/share (All-Time-High; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

DIA ETF's Price Level:Volume Sentiment For The Past 3-4 Years
DIA ETF’s Price Level:Volume Sentiment For The Past 3-4 Years

The Week Ahead

Monday the week kicks off with Home Builder Confidence Index data at 10 am.

Science Applications is scheduled to report earnings before the opening bell on Monday, with dLocal & Stone Co. scheduled to report after the closing bell.

Housing Starts & Building Permits data is released on Tuesday at 8:30 am.

On Tuesday morning Caleres, Endeavour Silver & Tencent Music report earnings before the opening bell, with ZTO Express reporting earnings after the session’s close.

Wednesday s a big day, with the FOMC Interest Rate Decision at 2pm, followed by Fed Chair Powell’s press conference at 2:30 pm.

Micron is scheduled to report earnings on Wednesday, with BioNTech, BRP, General Mills, Kingsoft Cloud, Ollie’s Bargain Outlet & Signet Jewelers scheduled to report earnings before the session’s open & BlackBerry, Chewy, Five Below, Guess?, KB Home, Steelcase, Wheaton Precious Metals & Worthington Enterprises scheduled to report earnings after the closing bell.

Initial Jobless Claims & Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey data are released at 8:30 am on Thursday, followed by S&P Flash U.S. Services PMI & S&P Flash U.S. Manufacturing PMI data at 9:45 am & U.S. Leading Economic Indicators & Existing Home Sales data at 10 am.

Thursday’s major earnings reports comes from FedEx & Nike after the bell, with Academy Sports + Outdoors, Accenture, Darden Restaurants, Designer Brands, FactSet, Shoe Carnival, Titan Machinery & Winnebago scheduled to report before the day’s session & AAR Corp, Lululemon Athletica & Worthington Steel all scheduled to deliver earnings results after the close.

Friday does not have any major economic data scheduled to be released.

There are no noteworthy earnings reports scheduled for Friday.

See you back here next week!

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM OR DIA AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***

Weekly Stock & ETF Market Review 2/25/2024

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF advanced +1.16% over the past week, leading all of the major indexes in the wake of the NVDA earnings report.

SPY ETF - SPDR S&P 500 ETF's Technical Performance Over The Past Year
SPY ETF – SPDR S&P 500 ETF’s Technical Performance Over The Past Year

Their RSI is currently flat following the past two sessions’ tight range, near the bounds of overbought at 68.63, while their MACD is slightly bullish in the wake of Thursday’s gap up session.

Volumes were -15.4% below average last week compared to the year prior (68,897,680 vs. 81,441,800), as market participants were not overly eager to add risk at all time highs for SPY components.

Monday kicked the week off on a sour note, with a bearish day that tested the support strength of the 10 day moving average, before an additional declining session Tuesday pushed SPY below the 10 DMA.

Wednesday opened lowed than Tuesday, but ultimately rallied enough to close higher, before the NVDA earnings in the after-hours gave the spark that catalyzed a jump back above the 10 DMA on Thursday.

The week ended on another note of uncertainty though, with a spinning top candlestick, that while the session ended in an advance, it closed lower than it opened, signaling weakness & risk off sentiment going into the weekend.

SPY’s Average True Range is currently declining following Thursday’s gap up, after there has been increased volatility over the prior seven sessions.

An area to watch this week will be the strength of SPY’s MACD, as Thursday & Friday were able to turn it slightly bullish, but it is still relatively muted compared to what you would expect to see at the beginning of a strong trend.

The Fed speakers this week will likely be some of the biggest influences on this (a schedule of them is listed in the following section).

Earnings continue into this week as well, with a number of names that can sway markets due to report this week, in addition to regularly scheduled economic data that is set to be released.

SPY has support at the $503.50 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $500.57 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $490.71 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $483.26/share (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), with no resistance levels in the past year as they are at an all-time high.

SPY ETF's Price Level:Volume Sentiment Over The Past 2-3 Years
SPY ETF’s Price Level:Volume Sentiment Over The Past 2-3 Years

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF inched forward +0.52% this past week, underperforming SPY, as it appeared investors were treading cautiously around the risks surrounding technology stocks.

QQQ ETF - Invesco QQQ Trust ETF's Technical Performance Over The Past Year
QQQ ETF – Invesco QQQ Trust ETF’s Technical Performance Over The Past Year

Their RSI is currently declining back towards the neutral 50-mark & sits currently at 61.33, while their MACD is bearish, but moving towards the signal line in a manner that could result in a bullish reversal if there is a strong advancing session or two early in the week.

Volumes were -2.18% below average last week compared to the year prior (50,304,580 vs. 51,424,090), which is worth noting as QQQ had four declining sessions last week, which is not an indication of strength.

The week began on a weak foot, with Monday’s declining session falling below the support of the 10 day moving average.

Tuesday followed suit & continued the decline before Wednesday’s session decline, but formed a hammer candle (indicating a reversal was likely), while closing higher than it opened (another signal of near-term strength).

QQQ gapped up above the 10 day moving average on Thursday, but Friday gave another bearish signal, as the day opened higher than Thursday, but ultimately declined -0.29%.

Friday’s volumes were low, but given that three of the previous four days were declining sessions as well that isn’t as strong of a signal as it might normally be & really just amounts to general skittishness & anxiousness among market participants.

Much like SPY, QQQ’s Average True Range is declining in the wake of Thursday’s gap up session after it had shown signs of increased volatility in the couple of prior weeks.

This week all eyes will remain watching the tight rope walk along the 10 day moving average’s support, waiting to see when it finally gives way & becomes resistance & downward pressure on QQQ’s price.

QQQ has support at the $432.70 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $421.63 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $417.16 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $412.92/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.85:1), with resistance at the $439.14/share price level (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*).

QQQ ETF's Price Level:Volume Sentiment Over The Past 2-3 Years
QQQ ETF’s Price Level:Volume Sentiment Over The Past 2-3 Years

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF declined -2.23%, as small cap names were viewed unfavorably, following in the wake of all of the large cap related news.

IWM ETF - iShares Russell 2000 ETF's Technical Performance Over The Past Year
IWM ETF – iShares Russell 2000 ETF’s Technical Performance Over The Past Year

Their RSI is near neutral at 54, although slightly trending up following Thursday & Friday’s gains, while their MACD is slightly bullish, but very muted & not signaling much strength & optimism at current levels.

Volumes were 5.67% above average last week compared to the year prior (36,697,760 vs. 34,728,798), led by Monday’s declining session which had the highest level of the week.

Monday’s session created a bearish harami pattern with the previous Friday’s candle, setting the stage for Tuesday’s gap down decline.

Tuesday also signaled much uncertainty among investors, as the day resulted in a spinning top candle that temporarily dipped below the support of the 10 day moving average.

Wednesday the charge continued lower, but a late session rally forced IWM’s close to be higher than the open, as there was optimism about NVDA’s earnings report.

The rest of the week did not signal strength though, as Thursday’s session tested lower but ultimately closed right along the 10 day moving average’s resistance.

While it tested slightly higher than the 10 DMA it was unable to close there & Friday’s session signaled indecision & uncertainty heading into the weekend, ending the day in a spinning top candle that was also right along the 10 DMA ($0.06 above it).

IWM’s Average True Range has been in decline for most of February, as the small cap index has experienced some volatile swings, but its price has remained clustered around the same general price levels throughout the entire time.

The 10 & 50 Day Moving Averages will be something to keep an eye on this week, as once the support of the 10 DMA breaks down the 50 DMA will become an important support level that is creeping closer & closer to IWM’s current price.

Should the price break below the 50 DMA it will begin putting downwards pressure on IWM’s price along with the 10 DMA.

While IWM’s trading patterns over the past year provide it more support touch-points than SPY or QQQ’s in the near-term & in ranges closer to the price, they might not mean much if the price is being forced downwards by heavy selling volume & both moving averages.

IWM has support at the $199.83 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.67:1), $199.41 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.67:1), $197.10 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.21:1) & $196.61/share (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers 1.21:1), with resistance at the $204.76 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $205.49/share (52 Week High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*).

IWM ETF's iShares Russell 2000 ETF's Price Level:Volume Sentiment Over The Past 2-3 Years
IWM ETF’s iShares Russell 2000 ETF’s Price Level:Volume Sentiment Over The Past 2-3 Years

DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF gained +0.94% last week, finishing the week in second of the major indexes.

DIA ETF - SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF's Technical Performance Over The Past Year
DIA ETF – SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF’s Technical Performance Over The Past Year

Their RSI is approaching overbought levels again & sits currently at 66.77, while their MACD is slightly bullish, but does not show convincing strength in its current state.

Volumes were +6.12% above the past year’s average (3,708,300 vs. 3,494,490), mostly due to Thursday’s gap up sessions following the NVDA earnings report.

Monday the week began on a bearish note, with a bearish session that resulted in a doji on Tuesday (uncertainty) declining into Wednesday, when a hammer reversal candle closed near the 10 day moving average.

Thursday resulted in a gap up, which tested higher on the day based on its upper shadow, but Friday signaled danger on the horizon.

Friday’s candle was a shooting star, indicating that there was investor sentiment higher based on the tall upper shadow, but the spinning top real body signals uncertainty, which begins to look bearish when you factor in that the bullish candle is filled in, meaning that it closed lower than it opened following a gap up.

It will be interesting to see if Monday’s session creates an evening star pattern & leads into declines this week, as volumes do not indicate that there is much optimism & strength behind recent price moves & that there will likely be profit taking from the late-week gains coming up.

Additionally, the 10 & 50 day moving averages will be an area of focus in the coming week(s), as unlike IWM, DIA does not have many support levels near their current price & if the 50 DMA is broken to the downside the nearest support level is ~10% from their closing price from Friday.

Their ATR is currently declining following Thursday & Friday’s price action, but a bit more volatility will have it on the rise again should we get some this week.

DIA has support at the $388.80 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $386.69 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $379.86 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $378.73/share (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), with no resistance levels in the past year as they are at an all-time high.

DIA ETF's Price Level:Volume Sentiment Over The Past 3-4 Years
DIA ETF’s Price Level:Volume Sentiment Over The Past 3-4 Years

The Week Ahead

Monday the week kicks off with New Home Sales data at 10 am.

ADTRAN, AES, Albany International, BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, CarGurus, Domino’s Pizza, Dorman Products, Elanco Animal Health, Fidelity National Information Services, Fresh Del Monte, Freshpet, HEICO, Helios Technologies, Hims & Hers Health, Innovative Industrial Properties, iRobot, Li Auto, ONEOK, Pilgrim’s Pride, Playtika, Public Service, PubMatic, SBA Communications, STAAR Surgical, Trex, Unity Software, Workday & Zoom Video Communications are all scheduled to report earnings on Monday.

Durable-goods Orders & Durable-goods minus Transportation data are released Tuesday at 8:30 am, followed by S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index (20 Cities) data at 9 am & Consumer Confidence data at 10 am.

Tuesday’s earnings reports include Macy’s, 3D Systems, Acadia Healthcare, ACADIA Pharmaceuticals, AdaptHealth, Agilent, Alcon, Ambarella, American Electric, American Tower, Array Technologies, AutoZone, Axon, B&G Foods, Beacon Roofing Supply, Beyond Meat, Boston Beer Co, Bumble, California Resources Corp, Carter’s, CAVA Group, Chemed, Civitas Resources, Clean Energy Fuels, Constellation Energy, Coupang, Cracker Barrel, Credo Technology Group, Cytokinetics, Darling Ingredients, Devon Energy, eBay, Extra Space Storage, First Solar, Gaming and Leisure Properties, Green Dot, Grocery Outlet, Henry Schein, Interface, International Money Express, J.M. Smucker, Jones Lang LaSalle, Klaviyo, Lemonade, Luminar Technologies, Masimo, Myriad Genetics, Norwegian Cruise Line, Opko Health, OraSure, Pan Am Silver, Park Hotels & Resorts, Perrigo, Pinnacle West, Portillo’s, Redfin, Revolve Group, Ryan Specialty Group, Sealed Air, Splunk, Stitch Fix, TimkenSteel, TKO Group Holdings, Universal Health, Urban Outfitters, Virgin Galactic, VIZIO & Xenia Hotels.

Things get busier on Wednesday, with GDP (first revision), Advanced U.S. Trade Balance in Goods, Advanced Retail Inventories & Advanced Wholesale Inventories data at 8:30 am, followed by the Chicago Business Barometer (PMI) at 9:45 am & at 12 pm Atlanta Fed President Bostic speaks.

Salesforce, AAON, ACM Research, Advance Auto Parts, AMC Entertainment, Ameresco, Amicus Therapeutics, C3.ai, Cactus, Chart Industries, Chemours, Clearwater Analytics, Compass Diversified, Dine Brands, Donaldson, Duolingo, Dycom, Editas Medicine, EPR Properties, Forward Air, Frontdoor, Geron, Gogo, Greif, Holley, HP Inc., Integra, James River Group, Jazz Pharma, Kinetik, Kontoor Brands, Magnite, Marathon Digital Holdings, Marqeta, Monster Beverage, National Storage Affiliates, Nexstar, NRG Energy, Nutanix, ODP Corporation, Okta, Patterson Companies, Payoneer, Sarepta Therapeutics, Sinclair Broadcast, Snowflake, Sociedad Quimica y Minera, Sovos Brands, Squarespace, Steven Madden, Stoneridge, Taboola, Talos Energy, TJX, United Parks & Resorts, Viatris, Vipshop, Warby Parker, Wheaton Precious Metals, WW & Zuora will all report earnings on Wednesday.

Thursday brings us Initial Jobless Claims, Personal Income (nominal), Personal Spending (nominal), PCE Index, Core PCE Index, PCE (Year-over-Year) & Core PCE (Year-over-Year) at 8:30 am, Pending Home Sales at 10 am, Atlanta Fed President Bostic speaks at 10:50 am, followed by Chicago Fed President Goolsbee speaking at 11 am & Cleveland Fed President Mester speaking at 1:15 pm.

Birkenstock Holdings, ACI Worldwide, American Woodmark, Anheuser-Busch InBev, Arlo Technologies, Autodesk, Bath & Body Works, Best Buy, BRP, Celsius, Certara, Cogent Communications, Cooper, CubeSmart, Dole, Endava, Evergy, Everi, ExlService, First Advantage, Fisker, Frontline, GoodRx, Hewlett Packard Enterprise, Hilton Grand Vacations, Hormel Foods, International Seaways, MasTec, Melco Resorts & Entertainment, Navitas Semiconductor, NetApp, Pacira BioSciences, Papa John’s, PTC Therapeutics, Quaker Chemical, Royal Bank of Canada, Six Flags, Strategic Education, Sweetgreen, Toronto-Dominion Bank, TTEC Holdings, Uniti Group, Utz Brands, Veeva Systems, Vertex & Zscaler are all scheduled to report earnings on Thursday.

The week winds down with Dallas Fed President Logan & Fed Governor Waller speaking at 10:15 am, Atlanta Fed President Bostic speaking at 12:15 pm & San Francisco Fed President Daly speaking at 1:30 pm.

Friday’s earnings calls include Bank of Montreal, Plug Power & RadNet.

See you back here next week!

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM OR DIA AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***

Weekly Stock & ETF Market Review 2/18/2024

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF dipped -0.34% last week, most caused by Tuesday’s gap down session, as the S&P 500 struggled to recover from the loss later in the week.

SPY ETF  - SPDR S&P 500 ETF's Technical Performance Over The Past Year
SPY ETF – SPDR S&P 500 ETF’s Technical Performance Over The Past Year

Their RSI is trending downwards towards neutral & sits at 63.05, while their MACD is slightly bearish entering the new week.

Volumes were -8.25% below average last week compared to the year prior (75,026,700 vs. 81,771,964), which should be seen as a cause for concern, given that the highest volume session of last week was Tuesday’s gap down, followed by Friday’s risk off into the weekend session.

Monday set the stage for the week’s decline with as a new 52-week high resulted in a doji candle with the open & closing prices in the lower end of the day’s range.

Tuesday resulted in a gap down session that straddled the 10 day moving average’s support, ultimately closing below it on the day, as another doji session signaled that there is still much uncertainty among market participants, including about the strength of the 10 DMA’s support.

Tuesday’s high volume signaled that profits were being taken & folks have become a bit uneasy now at these levels & this deep into earnings season.

Wednesday’s session signaled some optimism & began filling the window created by Tuesday’s gap, but the 10 DMA’s strength was still uncertain, as the day opened just above it, tested lower, but ultimately advanced further.

Thursday saw further advances & set up what would be an evening star pattern if we were at lower price levels & each day was not so tight-range near the all-time highs & Friday was risk off decline into the weekend.

As noted prior, Friday saw the second highest volumes of the week & ended the week just above the 10 day moving average.

Investors this week will want to keep an eye on how strong it holds up as support, as well as to see if a new ATH is able to be set, as otherwise this market looks set to let off some steam & seems ripe for profit taking.

Their Average True Range has flattened out, as there has been a lack of volatility over the past few weeks, aside from Tuesday’s gap down.

SPY has support at the $497.93 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $490.71 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $479.63 (50 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $477.55/share (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels, with resistance at the $503.50/share (All Time High; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price level.

SPY ETF's Price Level:Volume Sentiment Over The Past 2-3 Years
SPY ETF’s Price Level:Volume Sentiment Over The Past 2-3 Years

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF declined -1.48% last week, as the technology heavy index was the least favored by market participants for the week.

QQQ ETF - Invesco QQQ Trust ETF's Technical Performance Over The Past Yearx
QQQ ETF – Invesco QQQ Trust ETF’s Technical Performance Over The Past Year

Their RSI is trending downwards towards neutral & sits at 57.87, while their MACD is currently bearish & trending lower following Tuesday’s gap down.

Volumes were -8.7% below average compared to the year prior (47,049,060 vs. 51,553,969), which comes with the same warnings as SPY, given that their highest volume day was also on Tuesday’s gap down, followed by Friday’s session.

Monday reached a new all-time high briefly, before trending lower on the day & signaling uncertainty among market participants by closing the day out as a spinning top candle.

Tuesday began the picking apart of the 10 day moving average’s support, as the session gapped down to open below it, tested lower, but did ultimately test going back above the 10 DMA, before closing higher than it opened right in line with the 10 DMA.

Wednesday gave a third spinning top candlestick of the week, signaling that investors had become rather cautious & are unsure if QQQ would be able to advance higher, as the session opened on top of the 10 DMA, tested lower, but ultimately was able to advance on the day.

Thursday flashed the brake lights for QQQ, as the day resulted in a dragonfly doji, which can signal a continued march higher, had it not been a weak volume session, but the 10 day moving average managed to maintain its support.

Friday things began to unravel for QQQ, as the day opened slightly lower, declined below the 10 day moving average & had the second highest volume of the week, indicating that most investors are beginning to think about taking more profits off of the table in the near-term.

This week the 10 & 50 day moving averages will be important to keep an eye on, particularly if the 10 DMA becomes resistance, as they will eventually be closing in on the price from the top & bottom & likely be the cause of the next breakout (up or down).

Their Average True Range is flat, due to a lack of volatility recently, but after the earnings reports on Wednesday (NVDA in particular) this should begin to trend upwards again as volatility picks up.

QQQ has support at the $432.01 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $429.85 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $425.33 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $416.79/share (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels, with resistance at the $439.14/share (All-Time High; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price level.

QQQ ETF's Price Level:Volume Sentiment Over The Past 2-3 Years
QQQ ETF’s Price Level:Volume Sentiment Over The Past 2-3 Years

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF advanced +1.16% last week, having the strongest week of the major indexes as investors sought smaller market cap names.

IWM ETF - iShares Russell 2000 ETF's Technical Performance Over The Past Year
IWM ETF – iShares Russell 2000 ETF’s Technical Performance Over The Past Year

Their RSI is trending downward towards the neutral level & currently sits at 56.89, while their MACD is currently bullish, but looks to be curling over bearishly over the coming few days.

Volumes were +54.23% above average last week compared to the year prior (53,319,320 vs. 34,572,181), which looks to be primarily due to profit taking after a week of IWM jumping around with gaps up/down every session.

Much like SPY & IWM, Tuesday’s gap down session had the most volume of the week, followed by Friday’s declining session, which is not indicative of good investor sentiment.

Monday began the week on a gap up session that covered a wide range of prices, following in the wake of last Friday’s gap up.

Tuesday on the other hand showed great weakness, as profit takers overwhelmed IWM following three straight days of large advances.

Tuesday blew through the support of the 10 day moving average, but closed right at the 50 DMA, despite having dipped below its support level during the day.

Wednesday opened at the high level of Tuesday’s upper shadow, but declined down to test the 10 DMA’s support before edging higher on the day’s session.

Thursday gapped higher on a wide-range session, was unable to test the 52-week high set in December & set the stage for declines when Friday’s session formed a bearish harami pattern, while the day resulted in a spinning top, indicating uncertainty.

As noted prior, the high levels of volume occurring after these advancing sessions are signals of weakness in the market, as participants are more eager to collect their profits & get off the field, rather than risk losses at these high price levels.

IWM’s Average True Range has been dipping lower the past few sessions, but it looks primed to go higher as volatility looks to be increasing for the small cap index.

All eyes this week for IWM will be on the $199.41 support level, their MACD as it begins to curl over bearishly, and the strength of support that the 10 & 50 day moving averages can provide, as they are two of the next three support levels.

IWM has support at the $199.41 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.67:1), $197.71 (10-Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.21:1), $197.10 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.21:1) & $195.50/share (50-Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.46:1) price levels, with resistance at the $204.76 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 5:1) & $205.49/share (All-Time High; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 5:1) price level.

IWM ETF's Price Level:Volume Sentiment Over The Past 2-3 Years
IWM ETF’s Price Level:Volume Sentiment Over The Past 2-3 Years

DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF remained mostly flat last week, only gaining +0.02% as investors have become more cautious as we sit at all-time high price levels.

DIA ETF - SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF's Technical Performance Over The Past Year
DIA ETF – SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF’s Technical Performance Over The Past Year

Their RSI is currently trending downwards towards the neutral level & sits at 58.32, while their MACD is currently bearish & declining further.

Volumes were +5.69% above average last week compared to the year prior (3,694,440 vs. 3,495,700), which like all of the aforementioned index ETFs is on account of Tuesday’s high volume declining session & Friday’s declining session as well, as investors raced to get profits off of the table.

Monday set the week off on an ominous note with a shooting star candlestick on very low volume.

Tuesday opened below the strength of the 10 day moving average & only tested lower throughout the session, but managed to close midway through the day’s candle, resulting in a long lower-shadow.

Wednesday the uncertainty continued, with a dragonfly doji candle that closed lower than it opened, which while it was technical an advancing session from Tuesday, did not wind up anywhere near the resistance that the 10 DMA was now providing.

Thursday gapped higher & had a wide-range candle with only a tiny lower shadow (compared to recent sessions), but the volume levels did not indicate that there was enthusiasm among investors, although the session did close above the 10 day moving average.

Friday wound the week down with a spinning top that closed just above the support of the 10 day moving average, signaling uncertainty, but the day’s low did dip below the 10 DMA & the volume was rather high on this day, signaling bearish sentiment.

Much like the other indexes mentioned prior, DIA’s 10 & 50 day moving averages will be an area of focus this week as they both approach the price closely & have begun to round off as though rolling over into declines in the near-term.

They will also be important for DIA as once they’ve been broken through by the price, there are no support levels otherwise until ~9% from Friday’s closing price.

Their ATR is flat/slightly declining, as their chart shows that there has been hardly any volatility for DIA in quite some time.

DIA has support at the $385.91 (10-Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $380.46 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $377.13 (50-Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $353.33 /share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.22:1) price levels, with resistance at the $389.41/share (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price level.

DIA ETF's Price Level:Volume Sentiment Over The Past 3-4 Years
DIA ETF’s Price Level:Volume Sentiment Over The Past 3-4 Years

The Week Ahead

Monday will be quiet next week as it is President’s Day in the US, so there will be no data releases, nor earnings reports.

Tuesday brings us U.S. Leading Economic Indicators at 10 am.

Home Depot, Walmart, Alcon, Amplitude, Andersons, Barclays, Beyond, Inc., Caesars Entertainment, Celanese, CenterPoint, Chesapeake Energy, Choice Hotels, Community Health, Cushman & Wakefield, Diamondback Energy, DigitalBridge, Element Solutions, Equitrans Midstream, Expeditors International of Washington, Flowserve, Franco-Nevada, Fluor, Globus Medical, Graphic Packaging, Halozyme Therapeutics, International Flavors & Fragrances, JBT Corp, KBR, Keysight Technologies, La-Z-Boy, Matador Resources, Matterport, Medifast, Medtronic, NeoGenomics, Palo Alto Networks, Pan Am Silver, Public Storage, Realty Income, SolarEdge Technologies, Sun Communities, Teladoc, Toll Brothers, TRI Pointe Homes, UFP Industries, Visteon & Westlake Corporation are all scheduled to report earnings on Tuesday.

Atalanta Fed President Raphael Bostic speaks at 8 am & the Minutes of the Fed’s January FOMC meeting are released on Wednesday at 2pm.

NVIDIA, Alamos, Analog Devices, ANSYS, Avista, B2Gold, Bally’s, Bausch + Lomb, Camping World, Canadian Natural Resources, Cheesecake Factory, Chesapeake Utilities, Chord Energy, Churchill Downs, Clean Harbors, Coeur Mining, DigitalOcean, Dutch Bros, Etsy, Exact Sciences, Exelon, Fidelity National, First Majestic Silver, Forward Air, Garmin, Gildan Activewear, Glaukos, HF Sinclair, Host Hotels, Huntsman, Ionis Pharma, Jack In The Box, Jackson Financial, Kodiak Gas Services, LivaNova, Lucid Group, Marathon Oil, Marriott Vacations, Medical Properties Trust, Mister Car Wash, Mosaic, NiSource, Nordson, Olo Inc., ONE Gas, Photronics, Physicians Realty Trust, Pulmonx, Q2 Holdings, Range Resources, Rivian Automotive, Shutterstock, SM Energy, Sturm Ruger, Suncor Energy, Sunnova Energy, Sunrun, Synopsys, Tandem Diabetes Care, United Therapeutics, Valmont, Vimeo, Wingstop, Wix.com & Wolverine World Wide are all scheduled to report earnings on Wednesday.

Initial Jobless Claims are scheduled to be released Thursday morning at 8:30 am, followed by S&P Flash U.S. Services PMI & S&P Flash U.S. Manufacturing PMI at 9:45 am, Existing Home Sales at 10 am, at 3:15 pm Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker speaks & at 5 pm Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari is scheduled to speak.

Thursday’s earnings reports include ACCO Brands, Alarm.com, Altair Engineering, American Homes 4 Rent, Arcadium Lithium, BigCommerce, BioMarin Pharmaceutical, Block, Booking Holdings, Brady, Builders FirstSource, Cars.com, Carvana, Cheniere Energy, Chuy’s, Clearway Energy, Copart, Coterra Energy, Dominion Energy, Edison, Enovis Corporation, Entergy, EOG Resources, Evolent Health, eXp World Holdings, Fiverr, Floor & Decor, Fox Factory Holding, Genco Shipping & Trading, Guardant Health, Harmony Biosciences, Hillman Solutions, Intellia Therapeutics, Intuit, Iron Mountain, iRhythm, Keurig Dr Pepper, LegalZoom.com, Live Nation, MercadoLibre, Moderna, Newmark Group, Newmont Goldcorp, NICE, Noble, Northern Oil & Gas, Nutrien, Oceaneering International, Pembina Pipeline, PG&E, Pioneer Natural Resources, Planet Fitness, Pool, Quanta Services, RE/MAX Holdings, Rocket Companies, Sleep Number, Sprouts Farmers Market, SPX Corp, Starwood Property Trust, TechnipFMC, Teck Resources, Teleflex, Trinity Industries, Universal Display, VICI Properties, Wayfair, Wheaton Precious Metals, XPEL & ZipRecruiter.

There are no major speakers or economic data reports due out next Friday.

Friday’s earnings calls include AerCap, Bloomin’ Brands, Docebo, Frontier Communications Parent, Gray Television, Lamar Advertising, RB Global, Scripps, Sunstone Hotel, TransAlta & Warner Bros. Discovery.

See you back here next week!

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM OR DIA AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***

Weekly Stock & ETF Market Review 2/11/2024

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF gained +1.39% last week, mostly attributed to a gap up session on Wednesday, as the 10 day moving average continued to show strong support (last week’s note discussed this here).

SPY ETF - SPDR S&P 500 ETF's Technical Performance Over The Past Year
SPY ETF – SPDR S&P 500 ETF’s Technical Performance Over The Past Year

Their RSI has trended into overbought territory following the midweek gap up & currently sits at 72.8, while their MACD is currently still bullish.

Volumes were -22.21% below average last week compared to the year prior (63,559,973 vs. 81,704,876), as market participants have become anxious as the S&P 500 sits at all-time highs.

SPY kicked the week off on Monday with a declining session on the heaviest volume of the week,a and despite testing lower than they opened, the 10 day moving average was able to hold up as support & the candle’s real body set the stage for the advances of the rest of the week.

Tuesday showed some hesitancy, but ultimately marched slightly higher on low volume, with the candle’s real body concentrated on the upper end of the candlestick, signaling that there was still a muted appetite for higher prices.

SPY gapped up on Wednesday, for the second highest volume session of the week & continued to be supported by the 10 day moving average, but Thursday’s spinning top candle began to show that uncertainty had begun creeping into investors’ minds.

Friday closed the week out on a +0.58% advancing session, however much like the rest of the week, volumes were low & the session’s upper shadow is taller than the lower shadow, signaling that market participants are beginning to lose steam & pump the brakes.

Their Average True Range has cooled off in February, as there has not been much volatility, but it is beginning to flatten out, which may indicate that there is some volatility on the horizon in the near-term.

Much like last week, all eyes this week will be on the strength of the support from the 10 DMA, as well as the high of Friday’s session as it marks the new all-time high.

SPY has support at the $493.24 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $477.55 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $475.20 (50 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $466.43/share (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels, with no current resistance levels as they are at all-time highs.

SPY ETF's Price Level:Volume Sentiment For The Past 2-3 Years
SPY ETF’s Price Level:Volume Sentiment For The Past 2-3 Years

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF climbed +1.87% last week, as Wednesday’s session spurred strength that would last into the end of Friday’s session.

QQQ ETF - Invesco QQQ Trust ETF's Technical Performance Over The Past Year
QQQ ETF – Invesco QQQ Trust ETF’s Technical Performance Over The Past Year

Their RSI is overbought at 71, and their MACD is still bullish following the week’s advances.

Volumes were -30.27% below average compared to the year prior (35,983,751 vs. 51,606,828), which gives cause for concern as the highest volume session of last week was Monday’s decline.

Monday kicked the week off in line with where Friday left off, with the support of the 10 day moving average being tested, but the close was ultimately just below Friday’s close, resulting in a dragonfly doji, which set the stage for the moves higher later in the week.

Tuesday followed in the same range as the prior two sessions, with the 10 DMA’s support held up before a gap up open on Wednesday kick started the rally into the end of the week, but the spinning top candle implies that there is a bit of uncertainty still as we sit near all-time highs.

Thursday continued the theme of uncertainty, with a doji candle whose real body was concentrated near the lower end of the candlestick on the weakest volume session of the day.

It is also of note that the sentiment was ultimately bearish on Thursday, as the day opened higher than Wednesday, but closed below where it opened, signaling that there was some profit taking taking place.

Friday saw investors eager to take risk into the weekend with a gap up session that resulted in +0.98% on the day, with volume similar to Wednesday’s level.

QQQ’s Average True Range has flattened out after the small range sessions of the past week, signaling that volatility has quieted down recently, which will be something to watch for when it begins to climb again & the markets see an increase in v0latility.

Another area to watch again this week is how strong the 10 DMA holds up as support, as well as if there are any new all-time highs hit, which seems probable given that investors are anticipating NVDA’s earnings call a week from Wednesday.

QQQ has support at the $429.85 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $427.92 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $416.79 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $412.92/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.85:1) price levels, with no current resistance levels as they are at all-time highs.

QQQ ETF's Price Level:Volume Sentiment Over The Past 2-3 Years
QQQ ETF’s Price Level:Volume Sentiment Over The Past 2-3 Years

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF advanced +2.54% last week, the most of the major indexes as investors favored the small-cap names over large.

IWM ETF - iShares Russell 2000 ETF's Technical Performance Over The Past Year
IWM ETF – iShares Russell 2000 ETF’s Technical Performance Over The Past Year

Their RSI is trending higher but currently sits at 59, while their MACD has just completed a bullish crossover following today’s gap up session.

Volumes were +10.46% above average last week compared to the year prior (37,361,510 vs. 33,824,176), primarily driven by Monday’s declining session & Friday’s advance into the weekend.

Monday tested the support of the 50 day moving average, breaking lower but settling around the level on a spinning top, signaling uncertainty, but with the highest volume of the week it showed that there was some eagerness to both take profits from late last week & to also hop into the pool.

Tuesday opened below the 50 DMA, but was able to climb above its resistance throughout the day & close higher, but the low volumes of the session did not inspire much confidence in the strength of the move.

Wednesday saw IWM open higher on a gap, test lower all the way to below the 50 DMA, but recover during the day’s session to end on a decline, but with the 50 DMA acting as support.

On Thursday IWM opened above the 50 DMA, tested below it briefly before roaring back & advancing on the day to close above the resistance of the 10 day moving average.

IWM gapped higher on Friday, leaving both the 10 & 50 DMA’s in its wake, on the second highest volume of the week, signaling an increased appetite for risk heading into the weekend.

Their Average True Range has flattened out & currently sits in the middle of its range, indicating that there has been an average amount of volatility for IWM recently.

In the coming week it will be interesting to keep an eye on how volumes fluctuate in relation to this past week’s movements, as well as how strong the support/resistance levels of the 10 & 50 day moving averages hold up.

IWM has support at the $197.10 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.21:1), $195.40 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.46:1), $193.67 (50 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2.25:1) & $190.27/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.57:1) price levels, with resistance at the $199.41 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.67:1) & $205.49/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 5:1) price levels.

IWM ETF's Technical Performance Over The Past 2-3 Years
IWM ETF’s Price Level:Volume Sentiment Over The Past 2-3 Years

DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF stumbled forward +0.08% this past week, faring the worst of the major indexes, as it looks that investors have run out of appetite for the larger cap names.

DIA ETF - SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF's Technical Performance Over The Past Year
DIA ETF – SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF’s Technical Performance Over The Past Year

Their RSI is trending towards neutral following the recent price consolidation & currently sits at 65.72, while their MACD is currently bullish, but laying relatively flat, which is not an indicator of strength.

Volumes were -12.92% below average last week compared to the year prior (3,026,681 vs. 3,475,833), as enthusiasm was put on hold near these all-time high levels, and it should be noted that Monday & Friday had the highest volumes of the week by a significant amount, which shows bearishness is beginning to creep into one of the most consistent indexes.

Monday started off with declining session that tested the 10 day moving average, with Tuesday advancing from Monday’s close & forming a bullish harami pattern that set the stage for Wednesday’s gap up session.

Wednesday & Thursday were both doji candle’s indicating indecision, although Thursday’s was a dragonfly doji which can often lead to more advances following it.

However, the mood became risk off on Friday, but the day resulted in a spinning top candle, indicating that there is still a great deal of uncertainty around DIA’s near-term prospects.

Their ATR has begun to fall indicating that there has been a lack of volatility & that most days have had small ranges in the past couple of weeks, and it will be important to keep an eye out to see if there are any upticks in volatility in the coming weeks, as that will spur greater profit taking following the recent ascent of the past 3-4 months.

The 10 day moving average will also be something to watch, as should its support be broken the next true support level will become the 50 DMA, which is still advancing towards the price.

There may not be much sturdy footing for DIA in the event of a decline, which would make sense should market participants want to begin taking profits from the past 3-4 months.

DIA has support at the $384.98 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $374.48 (50-Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $353.33 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.22:1) & $348.47/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.3:1) price levels, with resistance at the $387.78/share (52-Week High; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price level.

DIA ETF's Price Level:Volume Sentiment For The Past 3-4 Years
DIA ETF’s Price Level:Volume Sentiment For The Past 3-4 Years

The Week Ahead

Monday kicks the week off with the Monthly US Federal Budget at 2 pm.

Arista Networks, Avis Budget, Blackbaud, Brighthouse Financial, Cadence Design Systems, Federal Realty, Goodyear Tire, Hudson Pacific Properties, Lattice Semiconductor, Monday.com, Medpace, Otter Tail Power, Principal Financial Group, Service Co, Teradata, Trimble, Vornado Realty Trust, Waste Management, Watts Water Technologies & ZoomInfo are all scheduled to report earnings on Monday.

Consumer Price Index, Core CPI, CPI Year-over-Year & Core CPI Year-over-Year will all be reported on Tuesday at 8:30 am.

Tuesday’s earnings calls include Airbnb, Akamai Technologies, Alcon, American International Group, Angi, AutoNation, Biogen, Coca-Cola, Comstock, Corsair Gaming, Datadog, DaVita, Denny’s, Ecolab, Encore Wire, Entegris, EQT Corp., Franklin Electric, GlobalFoundries, GoDaddy, GXO Logistics, Hasbro, Hawaiian Electric, Herc Holdings, Howmet Aerospace, IAC Inc., Incyte, Instacart, Invitation Homes, Kratos Defense and Security, Krispy Kreme, Leidos, Lyft, Marriott, MGM Resorts, Molson Coors Brewing, Moody’s, Pan Am Silver, Primerica, Restaurant Brands International, Robinhood Markets, SiTime, STAG Industrial, Topgolf Callaway Brands, TPG Inc., TransUnion, Upstart, Watsco, Welltower, Wesco, WK Kellogg, Zillow & Zoetis.

Wednesday has no major economic data reports.

Cisco, Albemarle, Altice USA, American Water Works, Antero Midstream, Antero Resources, AppLovin, Arch Capital, Avient, Canadian Natural Resources, Cenovus Energy, Ceva, CF Industries, Charles River, Chefs’ Warehouse, Chemours, Chefs’ Warehouse, CME Group, CNH Industrial, Conduent, Energy Transfer, Equinix, Fastly, First Majestic Silver, Four Corners Property Trust, Franco-Nevada, Generac Holdings, Global Payments, Hecla Mining, Herbalife Nutrition, HubSpot, Informatica, IQVIA, JFrog, Kinross Gold, Kornit Digital, Kraft Heinz, Lithia Motors, Louisiana-Pacific, Magnolia Oil & Gas, Manitowoc, Manulife Financial, Martin Marietta Materials, NerdWallet, Nu Skin, Occidental Petroleum, Owens Corning, Paramount Group, Parsons, Patterson-UTI, QuantumScape, Royal Gold, Ryder System, SAGE Therapeutics, Suncor Energy, Sunoco, Taylor Morrison Home, Tower Semiconductor, TripAdvisor, Twilio, Upwork, Veeco Instruments, Waste Connections, Williams Cos & Wyndham Hotels & Resorts are all scheduled to report earnings on Wednesday.

Thursday will be busy on the data front, starting at 8:30 am when we get Initial Jobless Claims, Empire State Manufacturing Survey data, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey data, Import Price Index, Import Price Index Minus Fuel, U.S. Retail Sales & Retail Sales minus Autos, followed by Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization data at 9:15 am & Home Builder Confidence Index data at 10 am.

Thursday’s earnings calls include Coinbase Global, DraftKings, Agnico-Eagle Mines, Applied Materials, Arch Coal, BJ Restaurants, Bloom Energy, CBRE Group, Cohu, Con Edison, Crocs, Deere, Digital Realty Trust, DoorDash, Dropbox, Genuine Parts, Globant, Hanesbrands, Hyatt Hotels, IdaCorp, Ingersoll-Rand, Insight Enterprises, InterDigital, Ironwood Pharma, Laboratory Corp, Lincoln Electric, LTC Properties, LXP Industrial Trust, Mercer International, Organon, PENN Entertainment, Reliance Steel, Roku, Sabre, Shake Shack, SharkNinja, ShockWave Medical, Southern, SunPower, Tanger Factory, Texas Roadhouse, The Trade Desk, Toast, TriNet Group, US Foods, Vontier, Walker & Dunlop, Wendy’s, West Fraser, Yelp, YETI Holdings & Zebra Technologies.

Housing Starts, Building Permits, Producer Price Index, Core PPI, PPI Year-over-Year & Core PPI Year-over-Year are released on Friday at 8:30 am, followed by Consumer Sentiment (prelim) at 10 am.

Friday’s earnings reports include American Axle, Barnes Group, Cinemark, DT Midstream, Healthcare Realty, Portland General Electric, PPL Corp, TC Energy, TreeHouse Foods & Vulcan Materials.

See you back here next week!

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM OR DIA AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***

Weekly Stock & ETF Market Review 2/4/24

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF advanced +1.42% last week, faring the best of all of the major indexes for the week.

SPY ETF - SPDR S&P 500 ETF's Technical Performance Over The Past Year
SPY ETF – SPDR S&P 500 ETF’s Technical Performance Over The Past Year

Their RSI is 68.83 (per Friday’s close) & approaching overbought conditions, while their MACD is still bullish, but lost some steam following last Tuesday & Wednesday’s sessions.

Volumes were +6.52% above average last week compared to the year prior (87,398,320 vs. 82,048,124), led by Wednesday’s gap down session that broke through the support of the 10 day moving average.

Friday’s session featured the second highest volumes of the week on a day with a +1.05% gain going into the weekend, but that isn’t convincing enough that a bullish sentiment has returned to markets.

Monday the week kicked off with an advancing session following the Friday before’s doji close signaling uncertainty heading into the weekend.

Tuesday’s session returned to the theme of uncertainty, with a doji candle marking the session that was contained near the top of Monday’s candle’s real body & upper shadow.

Wednesday featured a gap down that broke through the support of the 10 day moving average, indicating that investor sentiment is waning, particularly as it had the strongest volumes of the week, mostly due to Chairman Powell’s press conference following the interest rate decision.

Thursday opened higher & climbed back through the 10 DMA, closing the day slightly above the real body of Wednesday’s candle & leading to Friday’s advancing session heading into the weekend.

SPY’s Average True Range has been steadily climbing since the last week of January, signaling that volatility in the index is heating up.

Two areas to watch in the week ahead are the upper shadow on Friday’s candle, as it may be the head to the bearish head & shoulders pattern that we have written about over the past few weeks, but the markets have continued to defy, as well as the 10 DMA.

Should the support of the 10 day moving average give way, there is -3.4% from the current price to the next lowest level of support.

Given that we have been setting new 52-week & all-time highs recently, there is limited volume data for the price levels below that are within a 7.76% range of the Friday’s closing price.

However, as time passes & more trades take place in these price ranges there will be more meaningful data to replace the NULL values.

Also note that due to the recent setting of 52-week highs the higher levels with data will be skewed towards buyers until a consolidation has taken place, which may make them appear stronger than they actually are.

SPY has support at the $487.77 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $477.55 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $470.80 (50 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $466.43/share (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), with no resistance levels over the past year as they are at a new 52-week high.

SPY ETF's Price Level:Volume Sentiment Analysis For The Past 2-3 Years
SPY ETF’s Price Level:Volume Sentiment Analysis For The Past 2-3 Years

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF added +1.23% over the past week, weathering through the losses of Wednesday & Thursday’s sessions.

QQQ ETF - Invesco QQQ Trust ETF's Technical Performance Over The Past Year
QQQ ETF – Invesco QQQ Trust ETF’s Technical Performance Over The Past Year

Their RSI is trending back towards overbought levels & currently sits at 65.77 after Friday’s close, while their MACD is hanging on bullishly but approaching the signal line for a bearish crossover.

Volumes were -3.94% below average last week compared to the year prior (50,007,040 vs. 52,056,892), looking similar to SPY’s in terms of Wednesday’s bearish session being the week’s heaviest volume, followed by Friday’s advancing session.

Monday kicked the week off on a bullish note, advancing following the Friday prior’s risk off into the weekend move.

Tuesday’s candles created a bearish harami pattern with Monday’s, which was confirmed by Wednesday’s declines on a gap down that broke the support of the 10 day moving average.

Thursday nudged higher, but was still contained by the resistance of the 10 DMA, which Friday’s session used as a support level on a gap up open, briefly tested below (lower shadow) & resulted in a +1.65% gain on the day.

Given that lack of volume & the way volumes were dispersed throughout the week Friday’s session does not look like a signal of strength, nor a green light for prices to begin going higher from here.

QQQ’s Average True Range has also been steadily climbing since late January, indicating that volatility has been increasing & will likely continue to do so in the coming weeks.

Much like SPY, the same two variables will be something to keep a close eye on.

If the support of the 10 DMA is able to hold up, there is increased likelihood of setting a new 52-week high & creating a new potential head in the bearish head & shoulders situation mentioned prior.

Else, Friday’s upper shadow will be the ultimate resistance line in the weeks that move forward.

Like SPY, QQQ’s price levels near the 52-week high have limited data to work with, leaving the table below filled with NULL values until there is a 3% decline.

Recall that the data on the outskirts of highs/lows is often skewed & it will be interesting to see how the Sellers:Buyers data changes the table below in the event of consolidation.

QQQ has support at the $424.25 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $412.92 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.85:1), $404.98 (50 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 5.2:1) & $395.34/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.4:0*), with no past year resistance levels as they are currently at a 52-week high.

QQQ ETF's Price Level:Volume Sentiment Analysis For The Past 2-3 Years
QQQ ETF’s Price Level:Volume Sentiment Analysis For The Past 2-3 Years

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF declined -0.8%, as investors were less enthused with the small cap names than larger market cap stocks this past week.

IWM ETF - iShares Russell 2000 ETFs's Technical Performance Over The Past Year
IWM ETF – iShares Russell 2000 ETFs’s Technical Performance Over The Past Year

Their RSI is currently trending downwards, but remains neutral at 50.30, while their MACD is bearish & trending downwards.

Volumes were +44.66% above average last week compared to the year prior (48,557,260 vs. 33,565,873), led by Wednesday’s wide range bearish session, followed by Thursday’s advancing session that also tested down further but was supported by the 50 day moving average & Friday’s profit taking & risk off behavior moving into the weekend.

Monday kicked IWM’s week off on a bullish note, setting a new resistance level at $199.41, but Tuesday’s session resulted in a bearish harami pattern, setting the stage for the rest of the week’s declines.

The low volumes of Monday & Tuesday should be noted & taken as a sign of weakness.

Wednesday was a wide-range session downward, which led the week in volume & broke through the support of the 10 day moving average.

Thursday opened midway through Wednesday’s candle’s real body, tested below to the 50 day moving average which held up support, before rallying higher & closing just beneath the resistance of the 10 day moving average.

Friday wound the week down on an uncertain note, as the day’s candle opened lower than Thursday’s close, tested lower before rallying to test higher & closing above the open but with a large upper shadow.

This is showing that the direction of IWM will likely be determined by whether the resistance of the 10 day moving average or the support of the 50 day moving average gives out first.

Interestingly, their Average True Range has been declining after spiking up a bit in late-January, signaling a slowdown in volatility recently, and marking uncertainty as we get deeper into earnings season.

IWM has support at the $191.95 (50-Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.57:1), $191.53 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.57:1), $190.27 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.57:1) & $187.67/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.06:1), with resistance at the $195.87 (10-Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.46:1), $196.34 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.21:1), $197.10 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.21:1) & $199.41/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.67:1) price levels.

IWM ETF's Price Level:Volume Sentiment Analysis For The Past 2-3 Years
IWM ETF’s Price Level:Volume Sentiment Analysis For The Past 2-3 Years

DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF gained +1.4% over the past week, just shy of SPY showing investor appetite was favoring larger cap stocks last week, mostly on account of earnings reports.

DIA ETF - SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF's Technical Performance Over The Past Year
DIA ETF – SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF’s Technical Performance Over The Past Year

Their RSI is trending back towards overbought levels & is at 69.82 per Friday’s close, while their MACD is still slightly bullish, but not signaling strength.

Volumes were -3.04% below average last week compared to the year prior (3,390,540 vs. 3,496,925), as investors were not overly eager to jump into the pool near 52-week highs.

One thing to note though s that the support of DIA’s 10 day moving average held up, which shows that investors do feel more safe investing in the larger cap components of the Dow Jones Industrial Average than the other major indexes.

Monday’s session for DIA was a conservative advance, as was Tuesday’s.

Wednesday saw a declining session where the 10 day moving average held strong & kept the index afloat, while Thursday flashed signals of uncertainty with an advancing session whose real body was almost the exact same size as that of Wednesday’s candle.

Friday nudged higher 0.34%, leaving mixed signals about how market participants feel about the valuations of DIA’s components & their valuations relative to the interest rate decision that was announced on Wednesday.

As with SPY & QQQ, the 10 day moving average & how strong its support remains & the upper shadow on Friday’s session’s candle will be the main areas of focus in the coming weeks for clues into whether there will be a cool down & consolidation period, or if that resistance level becomes support for an irrational leg higher.

Since late January DIA’s Average True Range has been increasing, signaling that there is increased volatility following months of narrow-range candles in a steady ascent.

The same notes regarding 52-week highs on price levels from SPY & QQQ’s segments above also applies to the data below for DIA.

DIA has support at the $381.95 (10-Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $371.09 (50-Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $353.33 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.22:1) & $348.47/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.34:1), with no one year resistance levels as they are at a 52-week high.

DIA ETF's Price Level:Volume Sentiment Analysis For The Past 4-5 Years
DIA ETF’s Price Level:Volume Sentiment Analysis For The Past 4-5 Years

The Week Ahead

Monday the week kicks off with S&P Final U.S. Services PMI at 9:45 am, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee has a TV appearance at 10 am, along with the ISM Services data report & at 2 pm Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic gives welcoming remarks.

McDonalds, Affiliated Managers, Air Products, Allegiant Travel, Amkor, BellRing Brands, Cabot, Caterpillar, Chegg, Coherent, Crown Holdings, Estee Lauder, Fabrinet, Golub Capital, Hillenbrand, IDEXX Labs, J&J Snack Foods, Kforce, Kilroy Realty, NXP Semiconductors, ON Semiconductor, Palantir Technologies, Rambus, Simon Property Group, Simpson Manufacturing, Skyline Champion, Tyson Foods, Varonis Systems & Vertex Pharmaceuticals are all scheduled to report earnings on Monday.

Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester speaks at 12 pm on Tuesday, followed by Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari speaking at 1pm, Boston Fed President Susan Collins speaking at 2pm & Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker speaking at 7pm.

Tuesday’s earnings reports include: Eli Lilly, Advanced Energy, AGCO Corp, AllianceBernstein, Amdocs, American Financial Group, Amgen, Aramark, Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Assurant, Atmos Energy, Autohome, Carlisle Companies, CAVA Group, Centene, Check Point Software Technologies, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Cincinnati Financial, Cirrus Logic, Cognizant Technology Solutions, Cummins, DHT, Diodes, Douglas Emmett, DuPont, e.l.f. Beauty, Edwards Lifesciences, Energizer, Enphase Energy, Equitable Holdings, Essex Property, Exelixis, FirstService, Fiserv, Ford Motor, Fortinet, Freshworks, Frontier Group Holdings, Gartner, GE HealthCare, Gilead Sciences, H & R Block, Hertz Global, Himax Technologies, Jacobs Engineering, Klaviyo, KKR, Kyndryl, Lear, Linde, Lumen Technologies, Madison Square Garden Entertainment, MSG Sports, MicroStrategy, Nabors Industries, O-I Glass, Omnicom, Pan Am Silver, Precision Drilling, Prudential, Rexford Industrial Realty, Sensata Technologies, Silicon Motion, Snap, Spirit Aerosystems, Spotify Technology, Sonos, Tradeweb Markets, UBS AG, Valvoline, V.F. Corp, Werner Enterprises, Western Union, Willis Towers Watson, Xylem & Yum China.

Wednesday begins with U.S. Trade Deficit data at 8:30 am, followed by Fed Governor Adriana Kugler speaking at 11am, Boston Fed President Susan Collins speaking at 11:30 am, Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin speaking at 12:30 pm, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman speaking at 2pm, Consumer Credit & CBO Briefing on Budget & Economic Outlook data at 3pm.

Walt Disney, Adient, Alibaba Group, Allstate, Ares Capital, Arm Holdings, ASGN, Axcelis Technologies, B2Gold, Black Hills Corp, Bunge, Cameco, Carlyle Group, Confluent, CoreCivic, Coty, CVS Health, Dayforce, Emerson Electric, Encompass Health, Enersys, Envista, Equifax, Everest Group, First American Financial, FleetCor, Fox Corp, Franco-Nevada, Globe Life, GoPro, Green Plains, Griffon, Hain Celestial, Hilton, Kennametal, Kinross Gold, Knowles, Kodiak Gas Services, Manulife Financial, MasterCraft, Mattel, McKesson, MKS Instruments, Molina Healthcare, Monolithic Power, Murphy USA, National Fuel Gas, NETGEAR, New York Times, News Corp., Omega Health, O’Reilly Automotive, Paycom Software, Paycor, PayPal Holdings, Penske Automotive Group, Performance Food Group, Radian Group, Radware, Reynolds Consumer Products, Roblox, Scotts Miracle-Gro, Silicon Labs, TechTarget, Thomson Reuters, TTM Technologies, Vishay Intertechnology, XPO & Yum! Brands will all report earnings on Wednesday.

Initial Jobless Claims data is released Thursday at 8:30 am, followed by Wholesale Inventories at 10 am & Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin Speaking at 12:05pm.

Thursday’s earnings calls feature Affirm, Apollo Global Management, ArcelorMittal, Ares Management, Arrow Electronics, Asbury Automotive, AstraZeneca, Axalta Coating Systems, Baxter, Bill.com, BorgWarner, Boyd Gaming, Canadian Natural Resources, Capri Holdings, Cenovus Energy, Colliers International Group, ConocoPhillips, CyberArk Software, Dexcom, Doximity, Duke Energy, Dynatrace, Expedia Group, First Majestic Silver, FirstEnergy, Flowers Foods, Fortis, Genpact, Gildan Activewear, Harley-Davidson, Hershey Foods, Illumina, Intercontinental Exchange, The Interpublic Group of Companies, ITT, Kellanova, Kenvue, Kimco Realty, Leggett & Platt, Lincoln National, Lions Gate Entertainment, Lumentum, Masco, Mettler-Toledo, Mohawk Industries, Motorola Solutions, NNN REIT, Omnicell, Paylocity, Philip Morris International, Pinterest, PROS Holdings, Ralph Lauren, RBC Bearings, S&P Global, Snap-On, SolarWinds, Spectrum Brands, Spirit Airlines, Synaptics, T. Rowe Price, Take-Two Interactive Software, Tempur Sealy International, Tenet Healthcare, Transdigm Group, Under Armour, VeriSign, Warner Music Group, WEX, Wheaton Precious Metals & Zimmer Biomet.

Friday winds the week down with CPI Seasonal Factor Revisions at 8:30 am & Dallas Fed President Lori Logan speaking at 1:30 pm.

Algonquin Power & Utilities, AMC Networks, Catalent, Enbridge, Essent Group, Magna International, Mr. Cooper Group, Newell Brands, PepsiCo, Plains All American, Restaurant Brands International, TELUS International & W.P. Carey are all scheduled to report earnings on Friday.

See you back here next week!

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM OR DIA AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***

Technical Analysis & Price Level:Volume Sentiment For Alphabet Inc. GOOGL Stock

Alphabet Inc. stock trades under the ticker GOOGL & has advanced +39.5% over the past year.

Their current share price (per last night’s close) is -8.9% below their 52-week high, which was achieved two days prior on 1/29/24, while their share price has recovered +58.16% since their 52-week low in February of 2023.

Given their recent fall from a 52-week high, it is beneficial to take a look at how buyers & sellers have interacted at each price level they’ve traded at in recent history to gain insight into how strong or weak support & resistance levels will be in the future.

Below is a brief technical analysis overview of GOOGL stock’s past year & recent week, along with a section that outlines the ratios listed above for each price level & notes their support & resistance levels from the past year.

It is not meant as investing advice, but rather as an extra resource to review in addition to your due-diligence process.

Please note that at price extremes, such as the recent 52-week high that there is limited data for both sides, which will skew things near tops towards the Buyers & towards Sellers near the lower end of the range.

Also, any price level that did not have enough meaningful data is denoted with a “NULL” & any ratio that has a 0 for consequent value is marked with a “*” after the ratio.

Technical Analysis Of Alphabet Inc. GOOGL Stock

Alphabet Inc. GOOGL Stock's Technical Performance Over The Past Year
Alphabet Inc. GOOGL Stock’s Technical Performance Over The Past Year

GOOGL stock’s RSI is currently below neutral & sits at 43.62 following their recent declines after spending a week & a half in overbought conditions.

Their MACD has also recently completed a bearish crossover following yesterday’s major gap down session.

Volumes were +18.65% above average over the past week compared to the week prior’s averages, mostly due to yesterday’s steep declines from their 52-week high, as investors rushed to take profits following their earnings report.

The high volume levels of yesterday’s session were the 6th highest of the past year, indicating that there is likely to be more bearish sentiment for GOOGL in the near-term, particularly if today’s session is unable to produce any meaningful gains.

Yesterday’s gap down created a -7.5% window, where the support of the 10-day moving average was completely blown through on the open, while the 50 DMA was able to provide some support, along with multiple support touch-points in the $138-139 support zone.

All eyes will be on how strong the 50 DMA & consolidation range that GOOGL stock spent most of the last 6 months of the year in holds up as a support level, as otherwise only the $135.15 & $133.74 price levels are providing support until there is a zone with multiple touch-points at $129/share.

Their Average True Range shot through the roof yesterday, as there had been limited volatility for the prior week or two as prices climbed relatively slowly & without much volatility.

The following section leads off with an image showing all of their current support & resistance levels, as well as the ratio of Buyers:Sellers (or vice-versa) at each price level over the past 2-3 years.

Below that is a table that outlines all of the individual price levels with their ratios, as well as a text list version where the support/resistance levels are noted in bold.

Price Level:Volume Sentiment Analysis For Alphabet Inc. GOOGL Stock

Alphabet Inc. GOOGL Stock's Price Level:Volume Sentiment Over The Past 2-3 Years At Key 1 Year Support & Resistance Levels
Alphabet Inc. GOOGL Stock’s Price Level:Volume Sentiment Over The Past 2-3 Years At Key 1 Year Support & Resistance Levels
Alphabet Inc. GOOGL Stock's Price Level:Volume Sentiment Over The Past 2-3 Years
Alphabet Inc. GOOGL Stock’s Price Level:Volume Sentiment Over The Past 2-3 Years
Alphabet Inc. GOOGL Stock's Price Level:Volume Sentiment Over The Past 2-3 Years
Alphabet Inc. GOOGL Stock’s Price Level:Volume Sentiment Over The Past 2-3 Years
Alphabet Inc. GOOGL Stock's Price Level:Volume Sentiment Over The Past 2-3 Years
Alphabet Inc. GOOGL Stock’s Price Level:Volume Sentiment Over The Past 2-3 Years

$154 – NULL – 0:0*; +9.92% From Current Price Level

$152 – Buyers – 1.2:0*; +8.49% From Current Price Level

$150 – Buyers – 1.17:1; +7.07% From Current Price Level

$148 – Buyers – 0.6:0*; +5.64% From Current Price Level – 10 Day Moving Average*

$146 – Buyers – 1.2:0*; +4.21% From Current Price Level

$144 – Sellers – 0.9:0*; +2.78% From Current Price Level

$142 – Buyers – 1.56:1; +1.36% From Current Price Level

$140 – Buyers – 1.18:1; -0.07% From Current Price Level – Current Price Box*

$138 – Buyers – 2.61:1; -1.5% From Current Price Level – 50 Day Moving Average*

$136 – Buyers – 1.84:1; -2.93% From Current Price Level

$134 – Buyers – 1.02:1; -4.35% From Current Price Level

$132 – Buyers – 1.57:1; -5.78% From Current Price Level

$130 – Sellers – 1.15:1; -7.21% From Current Price Level

$128 – Buyers – 1.2:1; -8.64% From Current Price Level – 200 Day Moving Average*

$126 – Buyers – 5:1; -10.06% From Current Price Level

$124 – Buyers – 1.76:1; -11.49% From Current Price Level

$122 – Sellers – 1.93:1; -12.92% From Current Price Level

$120 – Buyers – 2:1; -14.35% From Current Price Level

$118 – Sellers – 1.27:1; -15.77% From Current Price Level

$116 – Buyers – 1.88:1; -17.2% From Current Price Level

$114 – NULL – 0:0*; -18.63% From Current Price Level

$112 – NULL – 0:0*; -20.06% From Current Price Level

$110 – Buyers – 1.3:0*; -21.48% From Current Price Level

$108 – Buyers – 1.7:0*; -22.91% From Current Price Level

$106 – Buyers – 1.92:1; -24.34% From Current Price Level

$104 – Sellers – 1.03:1; -25.77% From Current Price Level

$102 – Sellers – 3.46:1; -27.19% From Current Price Level

$100 – Buyers – 2.88:1; -28.62% From Current Price Level

$99 – Sellers – 1.07:1; -29.34% From Current Price Level

$98 – Buyers – 9.75:1; -30.05% From Current Price Level

$97 – Sellers – 1.25:1; -30.76% From Current Price Level

$96 – Buyers – 1.73:1; -31.48% From Current Price Level

$95 – Sellers – 4:1; -32.19% From Current Price Level

$94 – Sellers – 1.67:1; -32.91% From Current Price Level

$93 – Buyers – 3.33:1; -33.62% From Current Price Level

$92 – Sellers – 2.08:1; -34.33% From Current Price Level

$91 – Sellers – 2.62:1; -35.05% From Current Price Level

$90 – Sellers – 3.62:1; -35.76% From Current Price Level

$89 – Buyers – 4.67:1; -36.47% From Current Price Level

$88 – Buyers – 1.63:1; -37.19% From Current Price Level

$87 – Sellers – 1.7:1; -37.9% From Current Price Level

$86 – Sellers – 2.09:1; -38.62% From Current Price Level

$85 – NULL – 0:0*; -39.33% From Current Price Level

$84 – Sellers – 1.3:0*; -40.04% From Current Price Level

$83 – NULL – 0:0*; -40.76% From Current Price Level

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN GOOGL STOCK AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***