Author: OptimizedValue

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF advanced +1.16% over the past week, leading all of the major indexes in the wake of the NVDA earnings report.

Their RSI is currently flat following the past two sessions’ tight range, near the bounds of overbought at 68.63, while their MACD is slightly bullish in the wake of Thursday’s gap up session.

Volumes were -15.4% below average last week compared to the year prior (68,897,680 vs. 81,441,800), as market participants were not overly eager to add risk at all time highs for SPY components.

Monday kicked the week off on a sour note, with a bearish day that tested the support strength of the 10 day moving average, before an additional declining session Tuesday pushed SPY below the 10 DMA.

Wednesday opened lowed than Tuesday, but ultimately rallied enough to close higher, before the NVDA earnings in the after-hours gave the spark that catalyzed a jump back above the 10 DMA on Thursday.

The week ended on another note of uncertainty though, with a spinning top candlestick, that while the session ended in an advance, it closed lower than it opened, signaling weakness & risk off sentiment going into the weekend.

SPY’s Average True Range is currently declining following Thursday’s gap up, after there has been increased volatility over the prior seven sessions.

An area to watch this week will be the strength of SPY’s MACD, as Thursday & Friday were able to turn it slightly bullish, but it is still relatively muted compared to what you would expect to see at the beginning of a strong trend.

The Fed speakers this week will likely be some of the biggest influences on this (a schedule of them is listed in the following section).

Earnings continue into this week as well, with a number of names that can sway markets due to report this week, in addition to regularly scheduled economic data that is set to be released.

SPY has support at the $503.50 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $500.57 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $490.71 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $483.26/share (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), with no resistance levels in the past year as they are at an all-time high.

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF inched forward +0.52% this past week, underperforming SPY, as it appeared investors were treading cautiously around the risks surrounding technology stocks.

Their RSI is currently declining back towards the neutral 50-mark & sits currently at 61.33, while their MACD is bearish, but moving towards the signal line in a manner that could result in a bullish reversal if there is a strong advancing session or two early in the week.

Volumes were -2.18% below average last week compared to the year prior (50,304,580 vs. 51,424,090), which is worth noting as QQQ had four declining sessions last week, which is not an indication of strength.

The week began on a weak foot, with Monday’s declining session falling below the support of the 10 day moving average.

Tuesday followed suit & continued the decline before Wednesday’s session decline, but formed a hammer candle (indicating a reversal was likely), while closing higher than it opened (another signal of near-term strength).

QQQ gapped up above the 10 day moving average on Thursday, but Friday gave another bearish signal, as the day opened higher than Thursday, but ultimately declined -0.29%.

Friday’s volumes were low, but given that three of the previous four days were declining sessions as well that isn’t as strong of a signal as it might normally be & really just amounts to general skittishness & anxiousness among market participants.

Much like SPY, QQQ’s Average True Range is declining in the wake of Thursday’s gap up session after it had shown signs of increased volatility in the couple of prior weeks.

This week all eyes will remain watching the tight rope walk along the 10 day moving average’s support, waiting to see when it finally gives way & becomes resistance & downward pressure on QQQ’s price.

QQQ has support at the $432.70 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $421.63 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $417.16 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $412.92/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.85:1), with resistance at the $439.14/share price level (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*).

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF declined -2.23%, as small cap names were viewed unfavorably, following in the wake of all of the large cap related news.

Their RSI is near neutral at 54, although slightly trending up following Thursday & Friday’s gains, while their MACD is slightly bullish, but very muted & not signaling much strength & optimism at current levels.

Volumes were 5.67% above average last week compared to the year prior (36,697,760 vs. 34,728,798), led by Monday’s declining session which had the highest level of the week.

Monday’s session created a bearish harami pattern with the previous Friday’s candle, setting the stage for Tuesday’s gap down decline.

Tuesday also signaled much uncertainty among investors, as the day resulted in a spinning top candle that temporarily dipped below the support of the 10 day moving average.

Wednesday the charge continued lower, but a late session rally forced IWM’s close to be higher than the open, as there was optimism about NVDA’s earnings report.

The rest of the week did not signal strength though, as Thursday’s session tested lower but ultimately closed right along the 10 day moving average’s resistance.

While it tested slightly higher than the 10 DMA it was unable to close there & Friday’s session signaled indecision & uncertainty heading into the weekend, ending the day in a spinning top candle that was also right along the 10 DMA ($0.06 above it).

IWM’s Average True Range has been in decline for most of February, as the small cap index has experienced some volatile swings, but its price has remained clustered around the same general price levels throughout the entire time.

The 10 & 50 Day Moving Averages will be something to keep an eye on this week, as once the support of the 10 DMA breaks down the 50 DMA will become an important support level that is creeping closer & closer to IWM’s current price.

Should the price break below the 50 DMA it will begin putting downwards pressure on IWM’s price along with the 10 DMA.

While IWM’s trading patterns over the past year provide it more support touch-points than SPY or QQQ’s in the near-term & in ranges closer to the price, they might not mean much if the price is being forced downwards by heavy selling volume & both moving averages.

IWM has support at the $199.83 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.67:1), $199.41 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.67:1), $197.10 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.21:1) & $196.61/share (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers 1.21:1), with resistance at the $204.76 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $205.49/share (52 Week High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*).

DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF gained +0.94% last week, finishing the week in second of the major indexes.

Their RSI is approaching overbought levels again & sits currently at 66.77, while their MACD is slightly bullish, but does not show convincing strength in its current state.

Volumes were +6.12% above the past year’s average (3,708,300 vs. 3,494,490), mostly due to Thursday’s gap up sessions following the NVDA earnings report.

Monday the week began on a bearish note, with a bearish session that resulted in a doji on Tuesday (uncertainty) declining into Wednesday, when a hammer reversal candle closed near the 10 day moving average.

Thursday resulted in a gap up, which tested higher on the day based on its upper shadow, but Friday signaled danger on the horizon.

Friday’s candle was a shooting star, indicating that there was investor sentiment higher based on the tall upper shadow, but the spinning top real body signals uncertainty, which begins to look bearish when you factor in that the bullish candle is filled in, meaning that it closed lower than it opened following a gap up.

It will be interesting to see if Monday’s session creates an evening star pattern & leads into declines this week, as volumes do not indicate that there is much optimism & strength behind recent price moves & that there will likely be profit taking from the late-week gains coming up.

Additionally, the 10 & 50 day moving averages will be an area of focus in the coming week(s), as unlike IWM, DIA does not have many support levels near their current price & if the 50 DMA is broken to the downside the nearest support level is ~10% from their closing price from Friday.

Their ATR is currently declining following Thursday & Friday’s price action, but a bit more volatility will have it on the rise again should we get some this week.

DIA has support at the $388.80 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $386.69 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $379.86 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $378.73/share (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), with no resistance levels in the past year as they are at an all-time high.

The Week Ahead

Monday the week kicks off with New Home Sales data at 10 am.

ADTRAN, AES, Albany International, BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, CarGurus, Domino’s Pizza, Dorman Products, Elanco Animal Health, Fidelity National Information Services, Fresh Del Monte, Freshpet, HEICO, Helios Technologies, Hims & Hers Health, Innovative Industrial Properties, iRobot, Li Auto, ONEOK, Pilgrim’s Pride, Playtika, Public Service, PubMatic, SBA Communications, STAAR Surgical, Trex, Unity Software, Workday & Zoom Video Communications are all scheduled to report earnings on Monday.

Durable-goods Orders & Durable-goods minus Transportation data are released Tuesday at 8:30 am, followed by S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index (20 Cities) data at 9 am & Consumer Confidence data at 10 am.

Tuesday’s earnings reports include Macy’s, 3D Systems, Acadia Healthcare, ACADIA Pharmaceuticals, AdaptHealth, Agilent, Alcon, Ambarella, American Electric, American Tower, Array Technologies, AutoZone, Axon, B&G Foods, Beacon Roofing Supply, Beyond Meat, Boston Beer Co, Bumble, California Resources Corp, Carter’s, CAVA Group, Chemed, Civitas Resources, Clean Energy Fuels, Constellation Energy, Coupang, Cracker Barrel, Credo Technology Group, Cytokinetics, Darling Ingredients, Devon Energy, eBay, Extra Space Storage, First Solar, Gaming and Leisure Properties, Green Dot, Grocery Outlet, Henry Schein, Interface, International Money Express, J.M. Smucker, Jones Lang LaSalle, Klaviyo, Lemonade, Luminar Technologies, Masimo, Myriad Genetics, Norwegian Cruise Line, Opko Health, OraSure, Pan Am Silver, Park Hotels & Resorts, Perrigo, Pinnacle West, Portillo’s, Redfin, Revolve Group, Ryan Specialty Group, Sealed Air, Splunk, Stitch Fix, TimkenSteel, TKO Group Holdings, Universal Health, Urban Outfitters, Virgin Galactic, VIZIO & Xenia Hotels.

Things get busier on Wednesday, with GDP (first revision), Advanced U.S. Trade Balance in Goods, Advanced Retail Inventories & Advanced Wholesale Inventories data at 8:30 am, followed by the Chicago Business Barometer (PMI) at 9:45 am & at 12 pm Atlanta Fed President Bostic speaks.

Salesforce, AAON, ACM Research, Advance Auto Parts, AMC Entertainment, Ameresco, Amicus Therapeutics, C3.ai, Cactus, Chart Industries, Chemours, Clearwater Analytics, Compass Diversified, Dine Brands, Donaldson, Duolingo, Dycom, Editas Medicine, EPR Properties, Forward Air, Frontdoor, Geron, Gogo, Greif, Holley, HP Inc., Integra, James River Group, Jazz Pharma, Kinetik, Kontoor Brands, Magnite, Marathon Digital Holdings, Marqeta, Monster Beverage, National Storage Affiliates, Nexstar, NRG Energy, Nutanix, ODP Corporation, Okta, Patterson Companies, Payoneer, Sarepta Therapeutics, Sinclair Broadcast, Snowflake, Sociedad Quimica y Minera, Sovos Brands, Squarespace, Steven Madden, Stoneridge, Taboola, Talos Energy, TJX, United Parks & Resorts, Viatris, Vipshop, Warby Parker, Wheaton Precious Metals, WW & Zuora will all report earnings on Wednesday.

Thursday brings us Initial Jobless Claims, Personal Income (nominal), Personal Spending (nominal), PCE Index, Core PCE Index, PCE (Year-over-Year) & Core PCE (Year-over-Year) at 8:30 am, Pending Home Sales at 10 am, Atlanta Fed President Bostic speaks at 10:50 am, followed by Chicago Fed President Goolsbee speaking at 11 am & Cleveland Fed President Mester speaking at 1:15 pm.

Birkenstock Holdings, ACI Worldwide, American Woodmark, Anheuser-Busch InBev, Arlo Technologies, Autodesk, Bath & Body Works, Best Buy, BRP, Celsius, Certara, Cogent Communications, Cooper, CubeSmart, Dole, Endava, Evergy, Everi, ExlService, First Advantage, Fisker, Frontline, GoodRx, Hewlett Packard Enterprise, Hilton Grand Vacations, Hormel Foods, International Seaways, MasTec, Melco Resorts & Entertainment, Navitas Semiconductor, NetApp, Pacira BioSciences, Papa John’s, PTC Therapeutics, Quaker Chemical, Royal Bank of Canada, Six Flags, Strategic Education, Sweetgreen, Toronto-Dominion Bank, TTEC Holdings, Uniti Group, Utz Brands, Veeva Systems, Vertex & Zscaler are all scheduled to report earnings on Thursday.

The week winds down with Dallas Fed President Logan & Fed Governor Waller speaking at 10:15 am, Atlanta Fed President Bostic speaking at 12:15 pm & San Francisco Fed President Daly speaking at 1:30 pm.

Friday’s earnings calls include Bank of Montreal, Plug Power & RadNet.

See you back here next week!

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM OR DIA AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF dipped -0.34% last week, most caused by Tuesday’s gap down session, as the S&P 500 struggled to recover from the loss later in the week.

Their RSI is trending downwards towards neutral & sits at 63.05, while their MACD is slightly bearish entering the new week.

Volumes were -8.25% below average last week compared to the year prior (75,026,700 vs. 81,771,964), which should be seen as a cause for concern, given that the highest volume session of last week was Tuesday’s gap down, followed by Friday’s risk off into the weekend session.

Monday set the stage for the week’s decline with as a new 52-week high resulted in a doji candle with the open & closing prices in the lower end of the day’s range.

Tuesday resulted in a gap down session that straddled the 10 day moving average’s support, ultimately closing below it on the day, as another doji session signaled that there is still much uncertainty among market participants, including about the strength of the 10 DMA’s support.

Tuesday’s high volume signaled that profits were being taken & folks have become a bit uneasy now at these levels & this deep into earnings season.

Wednesday’s session signaled some optimism & began filling the window created by Tuesday’s gap, but the 10 DMA’s strength was still uncertain, as the day opened just above it, tested lower, but ultimately advanced further.

Thursday saw further advances & set up what would be an evening star pattern if we were at lower price levels & each day was not so tight-range near the all-time highs & Friday was risk off decline into the weekend.

As noted prior, Friday saw the second highest volumes of the week & ended the week just above the 10 day moving average.

Investors this week will want to keep an eye on how strong it holds up as support, as well as to see if a new ATH is able to be set, as otherwise this market looks set to let off some steam & seems ripe for profit taking.

Their Average True Range has flattened out, as there has been a lack of volatility over the past few weeks, aside from Tuesday’s gap down.

SPY has support at the $497.93 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $490.71 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $479.63 (50 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $477.55/share (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels, with resistance at the $503.50/share (All Time High; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price level.

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF declined -1.48% last week, as the technology heavy index was the least favored by market participants for the week.

Their RSI is trending downwards towards neutral & sits at 57.87, while their MACD is currently bearish & trending lower following Tuesday’s gap down.

Volumes were -8.7% below average compared to the year prior (47,049,060 vs. 51,553,969), which comes with the same warnings as SPY, given that their highest volume day was also on Tuesday’s gap down, followed by Friday’s session.

Monday reached a new all-time high briefly, before trending lower on the day & signaling uncertainty among market participants by closing the day out as a spinning top candle.

Tuesday began the picking apart of the 10 day moving average’s support, as the session gapped down to open below it, tested lower, but did ultimately test going back above the 10 DMA, before closing higher than it opened right in line with the 10 DMA.

Wednesday gave a third spinning top candlestick of the week, signaling that investors had become rather cautious & are unsure if QQQ would be able to advance higher, as the session opened on top of the 10 DMA, tested lower, but ultimately was able to advance on the day.

Thursday flashed the brake lights for QQQ, as the day resulted in a dragonfly doji, which can signal a continued march higher, had it not been a weak volume session, but the 10 day moving average managed to maintain its support.

Friday things began to unravel for QQQ, as the day opened slightly lower, declined below the 10 day moving average & had the second highest volume of the week, indicating that most investors are beginning to think about taking more profits off of the table in the near-term.

This week the 10 & 50 day moving averages will be important to keep an eye on, particularly if the 10 DMA becomes resistance, as they will eventually be closing in on the price from the top & bottom & likely be the cause of the next breakout (up or down).

Their Average True Range is flat, due to a lack of volatility recently, but after the earnings reports on Wednesday (NVDA in particular) this should begin to trend upwards again as volatility picks up.

QQQ has support at the $432.01 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $429.85 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $425.33 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $416.79/share (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels, with resistance at the $439.14/share (All-Time High; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price level.

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF advanced +1.16% last week, having the strongest week of the major indexes as investors sought smaller market cap names.

Their RSI is trending downward towards the neutral level & currently sits at 56.89, while their MACD is currently bullish, but looks to be curling over bearishly over the coming few days.

Volumes were +54.23% above average last week compared to the year prior (53,319,320 vs. 34,572,181), which looks to be primarily due to profit taking after a week of IWM jumping around with gaps up/down every session.

Much like SPY & IWM, Tuesday’s gap down session had the most volume of the week, followed by Friday’s declining session, which is not indicative of good investor sentiment.

Monday began the week on a gap up session that covered a wide range of prices, following in the wake of last Friday’s gap up.

Tuesday on the other hand showed great weakness, as profit takers overwhelmed IWM following three straight days of large advances.

Tuesday blew through the support of the 10 day moving average, but closed right at the 50 DMA, despite having dipped below its support level during the day.

Wednesday opened at the high level of Tuesday’s upper shadow, but declined down to test the 10 DMA’s support before edging higher on the day’s session.

Thursday gapped higher on a wide-range session, was unable to test the 52-week high set in December & set the stage for declines when Friday’s session formed a bearish harami pattern, while the day resulted in a spinning top, indicating uncertainty.

As noted prior, the high levels of volume occurring after these advancing sessions are signals of weakness in the market, as participants are more eager to collect their profits & get off the field, rather than risk losses at these high price levels.

IWM’s Average True Range has been dipping lower the past few sessions, but it looks primed to go higher as volatility looks to be increasing for the small cap index.

All eyes this week for IWM will be on the $199.41 support level, their MACD as it begins to curl over bearishly, and the strength of support that the 10 & 50 day moving averages can provide, as they are two of the next three support levels.

IWM has support at the $199.41 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.67:1), $197.71 (10-Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.21:1), $197.10 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.21:1) & $195.50/share (50-Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.46:1) price levels, with resistance at the $204.76 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 5:1) & $205.49/share (All-Time High; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 5:1) price level.

DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF remained mostly flat last week, only gaining +0.02% as investors have become more cautious as we sit at all-time high price levels.

Their RSI is currently trending downwards towards the neutral level & sits at 58.32, while their MACD is currently bearish & declining further.

Volumes were +5.69% above average last week compared to the year prior (3,694,440 vs. 3,495,700), which like all of the aforementioned index ETFs is on account of Tuesday’s high volume declining session & Friday’s declining session as well, as investors raced to get profits off of the table.

Monday set the week off on an ominous note with a shooting star candlestick on very low volume.

Tuesday opened below the strength of the 10 day moving average & only tested lower throughout the session, but managed to close midway through the day’s candle, resulting in a long lower-shadow.

Wednesday the uncertainty continued, with a dragonfly doji candle that closed lower than it opened, which while it was technical an advancing session from Tuesday, did not wind up anywhere near the resistance that the 10 DMA was now providing.

Thursday gapped higher & had a wide-range candle with only a tiny lower shadow (compared to recent sessions), but the volume levels did not indicate that there was enthusiasm among investors, although the session did close above the 10 day moving average.

Friday wound the week down with a spinning top that closed just above the support of the 10 day moving average, signaling uncertainty, but the day’s low did dip below the 10 DMA & the volume was rather high on this day, signaling bearish sentiment.

Much like the other indexes mentioned prior, DIA’s 10 & 50 day moving averages will be an area of focus this week as they both approach the price closely & have begun to round off as though rolling over into declines in the near-term.

They will also be important for DIA as once they’ve been broken through by the price, there are no support levels otherwise until ~9% from Friday’s closing price.

Their ATR is flat/slightly declining, as their chart shows that there has been hardly any volatility for DIA in quite some time.

DIA has support at the $385.91 (10-Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $380.46 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $377.13 (50-Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $353.33 /share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.22:1) price levels, with resistance at the $389.41/share (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price level.

The Week Ahead

Monday will be quiet next week as it is President’s Day in the US, so there will be no data releases, nor earnings reports.

Tuesday brings us U.S. Leading Economic Indicators at 10 am.

Home Depot, Walmart, Alcon, Amplitude, Andersons, Barclays, Beyond, Inc., Caesars Entertainment, Celanese, CenterPoint, Chesapeake Energy, Choice Hotels, Community Health, Cushman & Wakefield, Diamondback Energy, DigitalBridge, Element Solutions, Equitrans Midstream, Expeditors International of Washington, Flowserve, Franco-Nevada, Fluor, Globus Medical, Graphic Packaging, Halozyme Therapeutics, International Flavors & Fragrances, JBT Corp, KBR, Keysight Technologies, La-Z-Boy, Matador Resources, Matterport, Medifast, Medtronic, NeoGenomics, Palo Alto Networks, Pan Am Silver, Public Storage, Realty Income, SolarEdge Technologies, Sun Communities, Teladoc, Toll Brothers, TRI Pointe Homes, UFP Industries, Visteon & Westlake Corporation are all scheduled to report earnings on Tuesday.

Atalanta Fed President Raphael Bostic speaks at 8 am & the Minutes of the Fed’s January FOMC meeting are released on Wednesday at 2pm.

NVIDIA, Alamos, Analog Devices, ANSYS, Avista, B2Gold, Bally’s, Bausch + Lomb, Camping World, Canadian Natural Resources, Cheesecake Factory, Chesapeake Utilities, Chord Energy, Churchill Downs, Clean Harbors, Coeur Mining, DigitalOcean, Dutch Bros, Etsy, Exact Sciences, Exelon, Fidelity National, First Majestic Silver, Forward Air, Garmin, Gildan Activewear, Glaukos, HF Sinclair, Host Hotels, Huntsman, Ionis Pharma, Jack In The Box, Jackson Financial, Kodiak Gas Services, LivaNova, Lucid Group, Marathon Oil, Marriott Vacations, Medical Properties Trust, Mister Car Wash, Mosaic, NiSource, Nordson, Olo Inc., ONE Gas, Photronics, Physicians Realty Trust, Pulmonx, Q2 Holdings, Range Resources, Rivian Automotive, Shutterstock, SM Energy, Sturm Ruger, Suncor Energy, Sunnova Energy, Sunrun, Synopsys, Tandem Diabetes Care, United Therapeutics, Valmont, Vimeo, Wingstop, Wix.com & Wolverine World Wide are all scheduled to report earnings on Wednesday.

Initial Jobless Claims are scheduled to be released Thursday morning at 8:30 am, followed by S&P Flash U.S. Services PMI & S&P Flash U.S. Manufacturing PMI at 9:45 am, Existing Home Sales at 10 am, at 3:15 pm Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker speaks & at 5 pm Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari is scheduled to speak.

Thursday’s earnings reports include ACCO Brands, Alarm.com, Altair Engineering, American Homes 4 Rent, Arcadium Lithium, BigCommerce, BioMarin Pharmaceutical, Block, Booking Holdings, Brady, Builders FirstSource, Cars.com, Carvana, Cheniere Energy, Chuy’s, Clearway Energy, Copart, Coterra Energy, Dominion Energy, Edison, Enovis Corporation, Entergy, EOG Resources, Evolent Health, eXp World Holdings, Fiverr, Floor & Decor, Fox Factory Holding, Genco Shipping & Trading, Guardant Health, Harmony Biosciences, Hillman Solutions, Intellia Therapeutics, Intuit, Iron Mountain, iRhythm, Keurig Dr Pepper, LegalZoom.com, Live Nation, MercadoLibre, Moderna, Newmark Group, Newmont Goldcorp, NICE, Noble, Northern Oil & Gas, Nutrien, Oceaneering International, Pembina Pipeline, PG&E, Pioneer Natural Resources, Planet Fitness, Pool, Quanta Services, RE/MAX Holdings, Rocket Companies, Sleep Number, Sprouts Farmers Market, SPX Corp, Starwood Property Trust, TechnipFMC, Teck Resources, Teleflex, Trinity Industries, Universal Display, VICI Properties, Wayfair, Wheaton Precious Metals, XPEL & ZipRecruiter.

There are no major speakers or economic data reports due out next Friday.

Friday’s earnings calls include AerCap, Bloomin’ Brands, Docebo, Frontier Communications Parent, Gray Television, Lamar Advertising, RB Global, Scripps, Sunstone Hotel, TransAlta & Warner Bros. Discovery.

See you back here next week!

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM OR DIA AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF gained +1.39% last week, mostly attributed to a gap up session on Wednesday, as the 10 day moving average continued to show strong support (last week’s note discussed this here).

Their RSI has trended into overbought territory following the midweek gap up & currently sits at 72.8, while their MACD is currently still bullish.

Volumes were -22.21% below average last week compared to the year prior (63,559,973 vs. 81,704,876), as market participants have become anxious as the S&P 500 sits at all-time highs.

SPY kicked the week off on Monday with a declining session on the heaviest volume of the week,a and despite testing lower than they opened, the 10 day moving average was able to hold up as support & the candle’s real body set the stage for the advances of the rest of the week.

Tuesday showed some hesitancy, but ultimately marched slightly higher on low volume, with the candle’s real body concentrated on the upper end of the candlestick, signaling that there was still a muted appetite for higher prices.

SPY gapped up on Wednesday, for the second highest volume session of the week & continued to be supported by the 10 day moving average, but Thursday’s spinning top candle began to show that uncertainty had begun creeping into investors’ minds.

Friday closed the week out on a +0.58% advancing session, however much like the rest of the week, volumes were low & the session’s upper shadow is taller than the lower shadow, signaling that market participants are beginning to lose steam & pump the brakes.

Their Average True Range has cooled off in February, as there has not been much volatility, but it is beginning to flatten out, which may indicate that there is some volatility on the horizon in the near-term.

Much like last week, all eyes this week will be on the strength of the support from the 10 DMA, as well as the high of Friday’s session as it marks the new all-time high.

SPY has support at the $493.24 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $477.55 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $475.20 (50 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $466.43/share (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels, with no current resistance levels as they are at all-time highs.

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF climbed +1.87% last week, as Wednesday’s session spurred strength that would last into the end of Friday’s session.

Their RSI is overbought at 71, and their MACD is still bullish following the week’s advances.

Volumes were -30.27% below average compared to the year prior (35,983,751 vs. 51,606,828), which gives cause for concern as the highest volume session of last week was Monday’s decline.

Monday kicked the week off in line with where Friday left off, with the support of the 10 day moving average being tested, but the close was ultimately just below Friday’s close, resulting in a dragonfly doji, which set the stage for the moves higher later in the week.

Tuesday followed in the same range as the prior two sessions, with the 10 DMA’s support held up before a gap up open on Wednesday kick started the rally into the end of the week, but the spinning top candle implies that there is a bit of uncertainty still as we sit near all-time highs.

Thursday continued the theme of uncertainty, with a doji candle whose real body was concentrated near the lower end of the candlestick on the weakest volume session of the day.

It is also of note that the sentiment was ultimately bearish on Thursday, as the day opened higher than Wednesday, but closed below where it opened, signaling that there was some profit taking taking place.

Friday saw investors eager to take risk into the weekend with a gap up session that resulted in +0.98% on the day, with volume similar to Wednesday’s level.

QQQ’s Average True Range has flattened out after the small range sessions of the past week, signaling that volatility has quieted down recently, which will be something to watch for when it begins to climb again & the markets see an increase in v0latility.

Another area to watch again this week is how strong the 10 DMA holds up as support, as well as if there are any new all-time highs hit, which seems probable given that investors are anticipating NVDA’s earnings call a week from Wednesday.

QQQ has support at the $429.85 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $427.92 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $416.79 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $412.92/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.85:1) price levels, with no current resistance levels as they are at all-time highs.

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF advanced +2.54% last week, the most of the major indexes as investors favored the small-cap names over large.

Their RSI is trending higher but currently sits at 59, while their MACD has just completed a bullish crossover following today’s gap up session.

Volumes were +10.46% above average last week compared to the year prior (37,361,510 vs. 33,824,176), primarily driven by Monday’s declining session & Friday’s advance into the weekend.

Monday tested the support of the 50 day moving average, breaking lower but settling around the level on a spinning top, signaling uncertainty, but with the highest volume of the week it showed that there was some eagerness to both take profits from late last week & to also hop into the pool.

Tuesday opened below the 50 DMA, but was able to climb above its resistance throughout the day & close higher, but the low volumes of the session did not inspire much confidence in the strength of the move.

Wednesday saw IWM open higher on a gap, test lower all the way to below the 50 DMA, but recover during the day’s session to end on a decline, but with the 50 DMA acting as support.

On Thursday IWM opened above the 50 DMA, tested below it briefly before roaring back & advancing on the day to close above the resistance of the 10 day moving average.

IWM gapped higher on Friday, leaving both the 10 & 50 DMA’s in its wake, on the second highest volume of the week, signaling an increased appetite for risk heading into the weekend.

Their Average True Range has flattened out & currently sits in the middle of its range, indicating that there has been an average amount of volatility for IWM recently.

In the coming week it will be interesting to keep an eye on how volumes fluctuate in relation to this past week’s movements, as well as how strong the support/resistance levels of the 10 & 50 day moving averages hold up.

IWM has support at the $197.10 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.21:1), $195.40 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.46:1), $193.67 (50 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2.25:1) & $190.27/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.57:1) price levels, with resistance at the $199.41 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.67:1) & $205.49/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 5:1) price levels.

DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF stumbled forward +0.08% this past week, faring the worst of the major indexes, as it looks that investors have run out of appetite for the larger cap names.

Their RSI is trending towards neutral following the recent price consolidation & currently sits at 65.72, while their MACD is currently bullish, but laying relatively flat, which is not an indicator of strength.

Volumes were -12.92% below average last week compared to the year prior (3,026,681 vs. 3,475,833), as enthusiasm was put on hold near these all-time high levels, and it should be noted that Monday & Friday had the highest volumes of the week by a significant amount, which shows bearishness is beginning to creep into one of the most consistent indexes.

Monday started off with declining session that tested the 10 day moving average, with Tuesday advancing from Monday’s close & forming a bullish harami pattern that set the stage for Wednesday’s gap up session.

Wednesday & Thursday were both doji candle’s indicating indecision, although Thursday’s was a dragonfly doji which can often lead to more advances following it.

However, the mood became risk off on Friday, but the day resulted in a spinning top candle, indicating that there is still a great deal of uncertainty around DIA’s near-term prospects.

Their ATR has begun to fall indicating that there has been a lack of volatility & that most days have had small ranges in the past couple of weeks, and it will be important to keep an eye out to see if there are any upticks in volatility in the coming weeks, as that will spur greater profit taking following the recent ascent of the past 3-4 months.

The 10 day moving average will also be something to watch, as should its support be broken the next true support level will become the 50 DMA, which is still advancing towards the price.

There may not be much sturdy footing for DIA in the event of a decline, which would make sense should market participants want to begin taking profits from the past 3-4 months.

DIA has support at the $384.98 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $374.48 (50-Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $353.33 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.22:1) & $348.47/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.3:1) price levels, with resistance at the $387.78/share (52-Week High; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price level.

The Week Ahead

Monday kicks the week off with the Monthly US Federal Budget at 2 pm.

Arista Networks, Avis Budget, Blackbaud, Brighthouse Financial, Cadence Design Systems, Federal Realty, Goodyear Tire, Hudson Pacific Properties, Lattice Semiconductor, Monday.com, Medpace, Otter Tail Power, Principal Financial Group, Service Co, Teradata, Trimble, Vornado Realty Trust, Waste Management, Watts Water Technologies & ZoomInfo are all scheduled to report earnings on Monday.

Consumer Price Index, Core CPI, CPI Year-over-Year & Core CPI Year-over-Year will all be reported on Tuesday at 8:30 am.

Tuesday’s earnings calls include Airbnb, Akamai Technologies, Alcon, American International Group, Angi, AutoNation, Biogen, Coca-Cola, Comstock, Corsair Gaming, Datadog, DaVita, Denny’s, Ecolab, Encore Wire, Entegris, EQT Corp., Franklin Electric, GlobalFoundries, GoDaddy, GXO Logistics, Hasbro, Hawaiian Electric, Herc Holdings, Howmet Aerospace, IAC Inc., Incyte, Instacart, Invitation Homes, Kratos Defense and Security, Krispy Kreme, Leidos, Lyft, Marriott, MGM Resorts, Molson Coors Brewing, Moody’s, Pan Am Silver, Primerica, Restaurant Brands International, Robinhood Markets, SiTime, STAG Industrial, Topgolf Callaway Brands, TPG Inc., TransUnion, Upstart, Watsco, Welltower, Wesco, WK Kellogg, Zillow & Zoetis.

Wednesday has no major economic data reports.

Cisco, Albemarle, Altice USA, American Water Works, Antero Midstream, Antero Resources, AppLovin, Arch Capital, Avient, Canadian Natural Resources, Cenovus Energy, Ceva, CF Industries, Charles River, Chefs’ Warehouse, Chemours, Chefs’ Warehouse, CME Group, CNH Industrial, Conduent, Energy Transfer, Equinix, Fastly, First Majestic Silver, Four Corners Property Trust, Franco-Nevada, Generac Holdings, Global Payments, Hecla Mining, Herbalife Nutrition, HubSpot, Informatica, IQVIA, JFrog, Kinross Gold, Kornit Digital, Kraft Heinz, Lithia Motors, Louisiana-Pacific, Magnolia Oil & Gas, Manitowoc, Manulife Financial, Martin Marietta Materials, NerdWallet, Nu Skin, Occidental Petroleum, Owens Corning, Paramount Group, Parsons, Patterson-UTI, QuantumScape, Royal Gold, Ryder System, SAGE Therapeutics, Suncor Energy, Sunoco, Taylor Morrison Home, Tower Semiconductor, TripAdvisor, Twilio, Upwork, Veeco Instruments, Waste Connections, Williams Cos & Wyndham Hotels & Resorts are all scheduled to report earnings on Wednesday.

Thursday will be busy on the data front, starting at 8:30 am when we get Initial Jobless Claims, Empire State Manufacturing Survey data, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey data, Import Price Index, Import Price Index Minus Fuel, U.S. Retail Sales & Retail Sales minus Autos, followed by Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization data at 9:15 am & Home Builder Confidence Index data at 10 am.

Thursday’s earnings calls include Coinbase Global, DraftKings, Agnico-Eagle Mines, Applied Materials, Arch Coal, BJ Restaurants, Bloom Energy, CBRE Group, Cohu, Con Edison, Crocs, Deere, Digital Realty Trust, DoorDash, Dropbox, Genuine Parts, Globant, Hanesbrands, Hyatt Hotels, IdaCorp, Ingersoll-Rand, Insight Enterprises, InterDigital, Ironwood Pharma, Laboratory Corp, Lincoln Electric, LTC Properties, LXP Industrial Trust, Mercer International, Organon, PENN Entertainment, Reliance Steel, Roku, Sabre, Shake Shack, SharkNinja, ShockWave Medical, Southern, SunPower, Tanger Factory, Texas Roadhouse, The Trade Desk, Toast, TriNet Group, US Foods, Vontier, Walker & Dunlop, Wendy’s, West Fraser, Yelp, YETI Holdings & Zebra Technologies.

Housing Starts, Building Permits, Producer Price Index, Core PPI, PPI Year-over-Year & Core PPI Year-over-Year are released on Friday at 8:30 am, followed by Consumer Sentiment (prelim) at 10 am.

Friday’s earnings reports include American Axle, Barnes Group, Cinemark, DT Midstream, Healthcare Realty, Portland General Electric, PPL Corp, TC Energy, TreeHouse Foods & Vulcan Materials.

See you back here next week!

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM OR DIA AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF advanced +1.42% last week, faring the best of all of the major indexes for the week.

Their RSI is 68.83 (per Friday’s close) & approaching overbought conditions, while their MACD is still bullish, but lost some steam following last Tuesday & Wednesday’s sessions.

Volumes were +6.52% above average last week compared to the year prior (87,398,320 vs. 82,048,124), led by Wednesday’s gap down session that broke through the support of the 10 day moving average.

Friday’s session featured the second highest volumes of the week on a day with a +1.05% gain going into the weekend, but that isn’t convincing enough that a bullish sentiment has returned to markets.

Monday the week kicked off with an advancing session following the Friday before’s doji close signaling uncertainty heading into the weekend.

Tuesday’s session returned to the theme of uncertainty, with a doji candle marking the session that was contained near the top of Monday’s candle’s real body & upper shadow.

Wednesday featured a gap down that broke through the support of the 10 day moving average, indicating that investor sentiment is waning, particularly as it had the strongest volumes of the week, mostly due to Chairman Powell’s press conference following the interest rate decision.

Thursday opened higher & climbed back through the 10 DMA, closing the day slightly above the real body of Wednesday’s candle & leading to Friday’s advancing session heading into the weekend.

SPY’s Average True Range has been steadily climbing since the last week of January, signaling that volatility in the index is heating up.

Two areas to watch in the week ahead are the upper shadow on Friday’s candle, as it may be the head to the bearish head & shoulders pattern that we have written about over the past few weeks, but the markets have continued to defy, as well as the 10 DMA.

Should the support of the 10 day moving average give way, there is -3.4% from the current price to the next lowest level of support.

Given that we have been setting new 52-week & all-time highs recently, there is limited volume data for the price levels below that are within a 7.76% range of the Friday’s closing price.

However, as time passes & more trades take place in these price ranges there will be more meaningful data to replace the NULL values.

Also note that due to the recent setting of 52-week highs the higher levels with data will be skewed towards buyers until a consolidation has taken place, which may make them appear stronger than they actually are.

SPY has support at the $487.77 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $477.55 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $470.80 (50 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $466.43/share (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), with no resistance levels over the past year as they are at a new 52-week high.

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF added +1.23% over the past week, weathering through the losses of Wednesday & Thursday’s sessions.

Their RSI is trending back towards overbought levels & currently sits at 65.77 after Friday’s close, while their MACD is hanging on bullishly but approaching the signal line for a bearish crossover.

Volumes were -3.94% below average last week compared to the year prior (50,007,040 vs. 52,056,892), looking similar to SPY’s in terms of Wednesday’s bearish session being the week’s heaviest volume, followed by Friday’s advancing session.

Monday kicked the week off on a bullish note, advancing following the Friday prior’s risk off into the weekend move.

Tuesday’s candles created a bearish harami pattern with Monday’s, which was confirmed by Wednesday’s declines on a gap down that broke the support of the 10 day moving average.

Thursday nudged higher, but was still contained by the resistance of the 10 DMA, which Friday’s session used as a support level on a gap up open, briefly tested below (lower shadow) & resulted in a +1.65% gain on the day.

Given that lack of volume & the way volumes were dispersed throughout the week Friday’s session does not look like a signal of strength, nor a green light for prices to begin going higher from here.

QQQ’s Average True Range has also been steadily climbing since late January, indicating that volatility has been increasing & will likely continue to do so in the coming weeks.

Much like SPY, the same two variables will be something to keep a close eye on.

If the support of the 10 DMA is able to hold up, there is increased likelihood of setting a new 52-week high & creating a new potential head in the bearish head & shoulders situation mentioned prior.

Else, Friday’s upper shadow will be the ultimate resistance line in the weeks that move forward.

Like SPY, QQQ’s price levels near the 52-week high have limited data to work with, leaving the table below filled with NULL values until there is a 3% decline.

Recall that the data on the outskirts of highs/lows is often skewed & it will be interesting to see how the Sellers:Buyers data changes the table below in the event of consolidation.

QQQ has support at the $424.25 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $412.92 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.85:1), $404.98 (50 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 5.2:1) & $395.34/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.4:0*), with no past year resistance levels as they are currently at a 52-week high.

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF declined -0.8%, as investors were less enthused with the small cap names than larger market cap stocks this past week.

Their RSI is currently trending downwards, but remains neutral at 50.30, while their MACD is bearish & trending downwards.

Volumes were +44.66% above average last week compared to the year prior (48,557,260 vs. 33,565,873), led by Wednesday’s wide range bearish session, followed by Thursday’s advancing session that also tested down further but was supported by the 50 day moving average & Friday’s profit taking & risk off behavior moving into the weekend.

Monday kicked IWM’s week off on a bullish note, setting a new resistance level at $199.41, but Tuesday’s session resulted in a bearish harami pattern, setting the stage for the rest of the week’s declines.

The low volumes of Monday & Tuesday should be noted & taken as a sign of weakness.

Wednesday was a wide-range session downward, which led the week in volume & broke through the support of the 10 day moving average.

Thursday opened midway through Wednesday’s candle’s real body, tested below to the 50 day moving average which held up support, before rallying higher & closing just beneath the resistance of the 10 day moving average.

Friday wound the week down on an uncertain note, as the day’s candle opened lower than Thursday’s close, tested lower before rallying to test higher & closing above the open but with a large upper shadow.

This is showing that the direction of IWM will likely be determined by whether the resistance of the 10 day moving average or the support of the 50 day moving average gives out first.

Interestingly, their Average True Range has been declining after spiking up a bit in late-January, signaling a slowdown in volatility recently, and marking uncertainty as we get deeper into earnings season.

IWM has support at the $191.95 (50-Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.57:1), $191.53 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.57:1), $190.27 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.57:1) & $187.67/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.06:1), with resistance at the $195.87 (10-Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.46:1), $196.34 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.21:1), $197.10 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.21:1) & $199.41/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.67:1) price levels.

DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF gained +1.4% over the past week, just shy of SPY showing investor appetite was favoring larger cap stocks last week, mostly on account of earnings reports.

Their RSI is trending back towards overbought levels & is at 69.82 per Friday’s close, while their MACD is still slightly bullish, but not signaling strength.

Volumes were -3.04% below average last week compared to the year prior (3,390,540 vs. 3,496,925), as investors were not overly eager to jump into the pool near 52-week highs.

One thing to note though s that the support of DIA’s 10 day moving average held up, which shows that investors do feel more safe investing in the larger cap components of the Dow Jones Industrial Average than the other major indexes.

Monday’s session for DIA was a conservative advance, as was Tuesday’s.

Wednesday saw a declining session where the 10 day moving average held strong & kept the index afloat, while Thursday flashed signals of uncertainty with an advancing session whose real body was almost the exact same size as that of Wednesday’s candle.

Friday nudged higher 0.34%, leaving mixed signals about how market participants feel about the valuations of DIA’s components & their valuations relative to the interest rate decision that was announced on Wednesday.

As with SPY & QQQ, the 10 day moving average & how strong its support remains & the upper shadow on Friday’s session’s candle will be the main areas of focus in the coming weeks for clues into whether there will be a cool down & consolidation period, or if that resistance level becomes support for an irrational leg higher.

Since late January DIA’s Average True Range has been increasing, signaling that there is increased volatility following months of narrow-range candles in a steady ascent.

The same notes regarding 52-week highs on price levels from SPY & QQQ’s segments above also applies to the data below for DIA.

DIA has support at the $381.95 (10-Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $371.09 (50-Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $353.33 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.22:1) & $348.47/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.34:1), with no one year resistance levels as they are at a 52-week high.

The Week Ahead

Monday the week kicks off with S&P Final U.S. Services PMI at 9:45 am, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee has a TV appearance at 10 am, along with the ISM Services data report & at 2 pm Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic gives welcoming remarks.

McDonalds, Affiliated Managers, Air Products, Allegiant Travel, Amkor, BellRing Brands, Cabot, Caterpillar, Chegg, Coherent, Crown Holdings, Estee Lauder, Fabrinet, Golub Capital, Hillenbrand, IDEXX Labs, J&J Snack Foods, Kforce, Kilroy Realty, NXP Semiconductors, ON Semiconductor, Palantir Technologies, Rambus, Simon Property Group, Simpson Manufacturing, Skyline Champion, Tyson Foods, Varonis Systems & Vertex Pharmaceuticals are all scheduled to report earnings on Monday.

Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester speaks at 12 pm on Tuesday, followed by Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari speaking at 1pm, Boston Fed President Susan Collins speaking at 2pm & Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker speaking at 7pm.

Tuesday’s earnings reports include: Eli Lilly, Advanced Energy, AGCO Corp, AllianceBernstein, Amdocs, American Financial Group, Amgen, Aramark, Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Assurant, Atmos Energy, Autohome, Carlisle Companies, CAVA Group, Centene, Check Point Software Technologies, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Cincinnati Financial, Cirrus Logic, Cognizant Technology Solutions, Cummins, DHT, Diodes, Douglas Emmett, DuPont, e.l.f. Beauty, Edwards Lifesciences, Energizer, Enphase Energy, Equitable Holdings, Essex Property, Exelixis, FirstService, Fiserv, Ford Motor, Fortinet, Freshworks, Frontier Group Holdings, Gartner, GE HealthCare, Gilead Sciences, H & R Block, Hertz Global, Himax Technologies, Jacobs Engineering, Klaviyo, KKR, Kyndryl, Lear, Linde, Lumen Technologies, Madison Square Garden Entertainment, MSG Sports, MicroStrategy, Nabors Industries, O-I Glass, Omnicom, Pan Am Silver, Precision Drilling, Prudential, Rexford Industrial Realty, Sensata Technologies, Silicon Motion, Snap, Spirit Aerosystems, Spotify Technology, Sonos, Tradeweb Markets, UBS AG, Valvoline, V.F. Corp, Werner Enterprises, Western Union, Willis Towers Watson, Xylem & Yum China.

Wednesday begins with U.S. Trade Deficit data at 8:30 am, followed by Fed Governor Adriana Kugler speaking at 11am, Boston Fed President Susan Collins speaking at 11:30 am, Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin speaking at 12:30 pm, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman speaking at 2pm, Consumer Credit & CBO Briefing on Budget & Economic Outlook data at 3pm.

Walt Disney, Adient, Alibaba Group, Allstate, Ares Capital, Arm Holdings, ASGN, Axcelis Technologies, B2Gold, Black Hills Corp, Bunge, Cameco, Carlyle Group, Confluent, CoreCivic, Coty, CVS Health, Dayforce, Emerson Electric, Encompass Health, Enersys, Envista, Equifax, Everest Group, First American Financial, FleetCor, Fox Corp, Franco-Nevada, Globe Life, GoPro, Green Plains, Griffon, Hain Celestial, Hilton, Kennametal, Kinross Gold, Knowles, Kodiak Gas Services, Manulife Financial, MasterCraft, Mattel, McKesson, MKS Instruments, Molina Healthcare, Monolithic Power, Murphy USA, National Fuel Gas, NETGEAR, New York Times, News Corp., Omega Health, O’Reilly Automotive, Paycom Software, Paycor, PayPal Holdings, Penske Automotive Group, Performance Food Group, Radian Group, Radware, Reynolds Consumer Products, Roblox, Scotts Miracle-Gro, Silicon Labs, TechTarget, Thomson Reuters, TTM Technologies, Vishay Intertechnology, XPO & Yum! Brands will all report earnings on Wednesday.

Initial Jobless Claims data is released Thursday at 8:30 am, followed by Wholesale Inventories at 10 am & Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin Speaking at 12:05pm.

Thursday’s earnings calls feature Affirm, Apollo Global Management, ArcelorMittal, Ares Management, Arrow Electronics, Asbury Automotive, AstraZeneca, Axalta Coating Systems, Baxter, Bill.com, BorgWarner, Boyd Gaming, Canadian Natural Resources, Capri Holdings, Cenovus Energy, Colliers International Group, ConocoPhillips, CyberArk Software, Dexcom, Doximity, Duke Energy, Dynatrace, Expedia Group, First Majestic Silver, FirstEnergy, Flowers Foods, Fortis, Genpact, Gildan Activewear, Harley-Davidson, Hershey Foods, Illumina, Intercontinental Exchange, The Interpublic Group of Companies, ITT, Kellanova, Kenvue, Kimco Realty, Leggett & Platt, Lincoln National, Lions Gate Entertainment, Lumentum, Masco, Mettler-Toledo, Mohawk Industries, Motorola Solutions, NNN REIT, Omnicell, Paylocity, Philip Morris International, Pinterest, PROS Holdings, Ralph Lauren, RBC Bearings, S&P Global, Snap-On, SolarWinds, Spectrum Brands, Spirit Airlines, Synaptics, T. Rowe Price, Take-Two Interactive Software, Tempur Sealy International, Tenet Healthcare, Transdigm Group, Under Armour, VeriSign, Warner Music Group, WEX, Wheaton Precious Metals & Zimmer Biomet.

Friday winds the week down with CPI Seasonal Factor Revisions at 8:30 am & Dallas Fed President Lori Logan speaking at 1:30 pm.

Algonquin Power & Utilities, AMC Networks, Catalent, Enbridge, Essent Group, Magna International, Mr. Cooper Group, Newell Brands, PepsiCo, Plains All American, Restaurant Brands International, TELUS International & W.P. Carey are all scheduled to report earnings on Friday.

See you back here next week!

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM OR DIA AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF gained +1.21% this past week, having the second strongest week of the major indexes.

Their RSI is trending towards overbought levels again & is currently 68.23, while their MACD line is currently bearish, but trending upwards towards the signal line following the past two sessions.

Volumes were +4.46% above average this past week compared to the year prior (85,804,734 vs. 82,139,551), which emphasizes the squeezes set for 1/19 options contract expirations of Thursday & Friday’s sessions, as the three prior sessions in the week were on weak volumes.

Monday the week kicked off on a cautious & uncertain note, as the candle’s real body was near exactly the same as Friday’s & despite the session opening slightly above Friday’s close, the close was lower than the open, indicating weakness.

Tuesday continued that theme, as the day resulted in a doji candle whose upper shadow tested the closing price of Monday’s session to the upside, while also testing the support of the 10 day moving average before closing right in the middle of the day’s range.

The declines continued into Wednesday with a more bearish tone, as the day opened on a gap down below the 10 DMA, tested lower, but ultimately closed near the open at the top of the day’s range, creating a dragonfly doji & setting the stage for the reversal of fortune going into the end of the week.

Thursday opened at the 10 DMA support level, tested lower to Wednesday’s open/close area, but trudged higher & signaled that there may be some more appetite to go higher based on their small upper shadow, indicating that the squeeze was going to continue.

Sure enough, Friday showed the strongest volume of the week as shorts were covered & SPY rallied +1.25% heading into the weekend.

While a new 52-week high was set Friday, unless earnings go exceptionally well moving into next week, yesterday’s session is a candidate to be the head of the bearish head & shoulders pattern that has been emerging & mentioned in our other posts over the past few weeks.

There now is a better chance of a consolidation range appearing moving into the near future, as the support of the 10 & 50 day moving averages are now both within -4.29% of the current price.

On a note of caution though, in the event of a larger decline those moving averages will begin putting downwards pressure on SPY’s price & force them to retest the $455.98 & $450.25 support levels, which if they are unable to hold up will lead it down to the $436-437 zone where there are currently two support levels.

Currently the $440-443.99 price zone is weak in terms of support, as you can see in the chart below & there are no support levels in the $440-450 price zone.

There is currently not enough meaningful volume data for the closest levels of support for SPY due to them being at an all-time high.

Their Average True Range is moving higher slowly, indicating that volatility has begun to uptick from the quieter sessions of the month leading into the new year.

SPY has support at the $477.55 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $475.21 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $466.43 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $461.74/share (50 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels, with no resistance levels from the past year as they reached a new 52-week high on Friday.

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF advanced +2.84%, as investors favored the technology-heavy NASDAQ 100 names over other major indexes.

Their RSI is overbought at 72.09 following Thursday & Friday’s back-to-back gap up sessions.

Volumes were +8.45% above average last week compared to the year prior (56,881,446 vs. 52,450,027), like SPY most of which occurred on Thursday & Friday, although the risk off Wednesday session also saw volumes that were notably higher than Monday & Tuesday.

Monday set the stage for the declines into midweek, opening above Friday’s candle’s body, but declining to about Friday’s open, resulting in a hanging man candle, signaling further declines on the horizon.

Tuesday’s spinning top candle indicated that there was uncertainty, but the movement was to the downside, setting up Wednesday’s hammer candle, where the price temporarily broke below the 10 day moving average’s support, but ultimately closed higher than it opened, despite the open being a gap down.

This set the stage for the two following days’ gap up sessions, as price action was primarily focused higher & there was a good deal of volume.

All eyes this week will be on how the $412.92/share support level holds up, as well as how the gaps of last week hold up as well, which will receive some aid from the 10 DMA’s support.

Much like SPY, QQQ has also been signaling that a bearish head & shoulders pattern may be emerging in the medium-term, with Friday’s session currently primed to be the head & the left shoulder being the $412.92/share support level that occurred about one month ago (12/28/2023).

The 50 day moving average’s support would also aid in this, as it currently is creating a support zone in the $395-396 price level.

Should it test lower though, all eyes will be on whether or not a consolidation range is established in the $386.44-341.49/share level, like the one that QQQ traded in from June of 2023 until a mid-November gap up session that led to the most recent run up.

Due to QQQ being at an all-time high, there is too little data to assess the historic strength & weakness of buyers:sellers at their current support levels.

Their Average True Range is advancing higher, signaling that there has been a recent increase in volatility, which is expected to continue moving into this week.

QQQ has support at the $412.92 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $408.58 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $396.04 (50 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $395.34/share (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels, with no resistance levels for the past year after reaching a new 52-week high on Friday.

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF lost -0.41% this past week, as investors shunned the small cap stocks in favor of larger names.

Their RSI is trending back to neutral & currently sits at 49.68, while their MACD is bearish still in the wake of the declines that they suffered since mid-December 2023.

Volumes were +38.71% above average last week compared to the year prior (45,336,017 vs. 32,683,625), driven primarily from Friday’s squeeze rally & some early week declining sessions, which is not an indicator of strength.

Monday’s session kicked off the bearish week opening at the 10 day moving average, testing higher, but ultimately diving beneath the support of the 10 DMA & testing lower on the second strongest volume of the week.

The weakness continued Tuesday, as the session gapped down, tried to recover, but could not even make it up to the 10 DMA’s resistance & continued its bearish descent, with the lower shadow signaling that there was appetite for IWM to move even lower.

Wednesday it gapped down again, almost testing the 50 day moving average’s support level, but pushed higher & wound up closing higher than it opened, but still nowhere near the day prior’s close.

Thursday opened on a gap up in the wake of Wednesday’s price recovery & movement higher & despite testing much lower (almost down to Wednesday’s opening price) resulted in a dragonfly doji, which led to Friday’s gap up.

While there was heavy volume on Friday & average volume Thursday, the 10 day moving average’s resistance will be a key area to watch this week, particularly as the lower shadows on the past two bullish day’s candles show that there was still a great deal of bearish sentiment at these price levels.

There have been a number of consolidation ranges in the past year that may act as support zones should IWM continue its slide downward, but it will be interesting to see how historic volume sentiments hold up for this name, as IWM has many gaps on their chart, leading to skewed data.

Their Average True Range is at the midway level & flat, indicating that there is some volatility.

The price’s interactions with the constricting 10 DMA (resistance applying downward pressure) & 50 DMAs (support applying upward pressure) will prove important in the coming week, as it will dictate which way IWM moves in the near-term.

IWM has support at the $190.27 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 5:1), $187.67 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.5:1), $187.52 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.5:1) & $187.41/share (50 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.5:1) price levels, with resistance at the $193.02 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2.8:1), $196.34 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2:1), $197.10 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2:1) & $205.49/share (52-Week High; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF inched forward +0.72% this past week, as investor sentiment for the large cap components of the index seem to have halted after a months-long run up in price.

Their RSI is trending towards overbought & currently is at 66.09, while their MACD line is currently bearish, but moving closer to the signal line for a potential crossover.

Volumes were +27.69% above average this past week compared to the year prior (4,476,521 vs. 3,505,776), which like IWM, were mostly on account of Friday’s squeeze session & some selling pressure early on in the week.

Monday opened just below Friday’s close, tested much lower, but retreated back to the support of the 10 day moving average in time for the close.

Tuesday followed in the bearish sentiment, not being able to break the 10 DMAs resistance & trudged lower, with the candle’s lower shadow indicating more moves to the downside were coming.

Wednesday’s inverse hammer candle signaled that there would be near-term moves higher, particularly after it opened on a gap down, tested higher & closed above the open.

Thursday was a wide range session that was unable to beat the strength of the seller sentiment at the 10 DMAs resistance level, but Friday gapped up to open above it, briefly tested below it, before charging onwards higher to reach the new 52-week high.

Much like SPY & QQQ, DIA forming a bearish head & shoulders has also been a topic of discussion in previous articles & we will be watching to see if the head was established during Friday’s session.

Another area to watch will be the 10 DMA’s ability to remain a support level after last week’s falling apart, and once it does break down how the downwards pressure moves DIA in the coming weeks.

Should the downward pressure be applied & the 10 DMA be broken downward, the 50 DMA will become a critical support level, as it is the only support between the current price & the next support level which is a -6.6% decline from the current price.

Their Average True Range is moving higher, indicating that volatility is picking up after a month & a half of relative calm trading for DIA.

DIA has support at the $375.65 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $363.76 (50 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $353.53 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 6:1) & $348.67/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.27:1) price levels, with no resistance levels in the past year after reaching a new 52-week high on Friday.

The Week Ahead

The week ahead will be relatively quiet in terms of economic reports & data, but promises to be busy on the earnings report front.

Both Monday & Tuesday there are no major economic reports scheduled.

Agilysys, AGNC Investment, Brown & Brown, Independent Bank Group, TFI International (TFII),  United Airlines & Zions Bancorp are all scheduled to report earnings on Monday.

On Tuesday Netflix, 3M, Baker Hughes, Canadian National Railway, D.R. Horton, General Electric, Halliburton, Intuitive Surgical, Invesco, Johnson & Johnson, Lockheed Martin, Old National Bancorp, PACCAR, Procter & Gamble, RTX, Synchrony Financial, Steel Dynamics, Stride, Teck Resources, Texas Instruments, Trustmark, Veritex Holdings, Verizon Communications & WesBanco all report earnings.

Wednesday brings us S&P Flash Services PMI & S&P Flash U.S. Manufacturing PMI data at 9:45 am.

Tesla, Abbott Labs, Agnico-Eagle Mines, Alamos, Ameriprise Financial, Amphenol, ASML, AT&T, Canadian Pacific, Cohen & Steers, Columbia Banking, Crown Castle, CSX, Elevance Health, Ethan Allen, Freeport-McMoRan, General Dynamics, International Business Machines, Kimberly-Clark, Knight-Swift, Lam Research, Monro Muffler, Packaging Corp, Plexus, Raymond James, ResMed, Sallie Mae, SAP, Seagate Technology, ServiceNow, SL Green Realty, TE Connectivity, Teledyne Tech, Textron, United Rentals, W.R. Berkley & West Fraser all are scheduled to report earnings data on Wednesday.

Q4 GDP (prelim), Initial Jobless Claims, Durable-Goods Orders, Durable-Goods Minus Transportaton, Advanced U.S. Trade Balance In Goods, Advanced Retail Inventories & Advanced Wholesale Inventories data will all be announced on Thursday at 8:30 am.

Thursday’s earnings reports include Intel, Alaska Air, American Airlines, Arthur J. Gallagher, Blackstone, Capital One, CNX Resources, Comcast, Cullen/Frost, Dow, Eagle Materials, Fair Isaac, Federated Hermes, KLA Corp, L3Harris, Marsh & McLennan, McCormick, Mobileye Global, Murphy Oil, NextEra Energy, NextEra Energy Partners, Northrop Grumman, Olin, Precision Drilling, RPC, Sherwin-Williams, STMicroelectronics, T-Mobile US, Union Pacific, Valero Energy, Virtu Financial, Visa, Western Alliance Bancorp, Western Digital, Weyerhaeuser & Xcel Energy.

All eyes will be on the American consumer to wind the week down on Friday, with Personal Income, Personal Spending, PCE Index, Core PCE Index, PCE (Year-over-Year) & Core PCE (Year-over-Year) all being reported at 8:30 am.

American Express, Autoliv, Badger Meter, Booz Allen Hamilton, Colgate-Palmolive, First Hawaiian, Fortis, Gentex, Imperial Oil, Norfolk Southern, Southside Banc & Stellar Bank wind the week down on the earnings report front on Friday.

See you back here next week!

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM OR DIA AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF gained +1.87% over the past week, having the second strongest week out of the major indexes.

Their RSI is currently moving flatly near the overbought mark of 70 & currently sits at 65.41, while their MACD is bearish but also moving relatively flat towards the signal line, which often is an indication that there are further declines on the near-term horizon.

Volumes were -16.1% below average this week compared to the year prior (68,801,160 vs. 82,000,643), which signals a lack of enthusiasm among investors as they take a “wait & see” approach heading deeper into earnings season.

This lack of volume supporting the upwards price movement of last week confirms that there RSI & MACD “flattening” trends of the past year are likely to occur again & seem to think that next week will provide SPY with a downward catalyst.

SPY’s week began with a bullish crossover of the resistance level from the 10 day moving average, gaining back what was lost in a week of declines the week prior on a wide-range candle session.

The following day signaled further uncertainty & weakness at these levels with a bearish candle that opened above the 10 DMA, but there was appetite for slightly higher prices as it tested higher than Monday’s high, but ultimately fell through the 10 DMA’s support, as investors took some profits from the day prior’s gains.

Wednesday continued the theme of caution, as the candle’s real body lacks much of a lower shadow but does have an upper shadow, indicating that there could be room for slight advances, but market participants are still on the fence.

Thursday’s session produced a hanging man candle, an ominous signal, particularly as it tested & broke through the 10 day moving average’s support temporarily, despite opening & closing above it.

Friday the week closed out on an uncertain, but not overly bright note, as the session ended in a spinning top candle, that while bullish day-over-day, had a bearish twist to it given that the day closed lower than it opened.

SPY’s Average True Range is also trending downwards after the past week, indicating that there has been a lack of volatility & no strong trend, which typically precedes an uptick at these low levels.

Something that will be worth continuing to keep an eye on is the 50 day moving average, which is now the second support touch-point.

Given that we are at a new 52-week high, there is limited insight into how strong the 10 & 50 DMA support levels will be, which often means that sellers will be itching to take profits off of the table at these levels.

If true, that would mean that there is a risk of a -4.34% move for SPY to the downside before it reaches a support level that has past tendencies to be Buyer oriented ($455.98/share has been 2.33 Buyers to each Seller over the past 1-2 years).

Should that level be tested, it may pave the way for further consolidation, as aside from the $436-439.99/share price zone (-7.62% from current price), the Buyer dominance dilutes until a -9.3% drop in price, at which point a seller dominated price zone is entered at $431.99/share, where the seller influence stays strong until a decline of -12.65% from the current price.

That’s not to say that this will be the case, but based on past buyer & seller behavior it is something to keep an eye on should SPY find itself needing to find support.

SPY has support at the $473 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $457.95 (50 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $455.98 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.33:1) & $450.25/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.13:1) price levels, with no past year resistance levels as they are at their 52-week high.

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF advanced +3.23% over the past week, having the strongest weekly performance of the major indexes.

Like SPY, QQQ’s RSI is also relatively flat & currently sits closer to overbought than neutral at 63.16, while their MACD line is also relatively flat, but approaching the signal line.

Volumes were -19.76% lower than average last week compared to the year prior (41,937,420 vs. 52,265,769), which is not a signal of strength following the +3.23% advance of last week.

The previous week & a half had been steady declines, which notably featured the breakdown of the support of the 10 day moving average, so this weak level of volumes on a week of only advancing sessions indicates extreme caution & that folks aren’t eager to jump back into the pool just yet.

Monday opened the week up with a wide range candle that was unable to break the resistance of the 10 day moving average.

Tuesday opened midway through Monday’s candle’s real body & marched higher to close narrowly above the 10 DMA, with a slight upper shadow indicating that there was some slight risk on apetite.

Wednesday the support of the 10 day moving average was maintained as the session moved QQQ higher.

Thursday is when things began to get a bit more dicey & cracks began to show for QQQ’s near-term outlook.

The highest volume session of the week looks to have contained a bit of profit taking by market participants, who ultimately decided that they were uncertain of QQQ’s valuation at its current price level.

The dragonfly doji candle marked the session, but the test to the downside did temporarily break the support of the 10 day moving average, signaling that there is not much conviction behind its strength at these price levels (also indicates the profit taking from the prior sessions of the week).

Friday’s session also resulted in a doji that only budged forward +0.05% from Thursday, which is not a strong indicator of confidence.

Much like SPY, QQQ’s Average True Range is also trending downward, but the price action of the past few sessions looks to have formed an inverse head & shoulders pattern in the ATR line, which would indicate there is volatility on the horizon.

QQQ has more support near the current price than SPY does, which will help some of the near-term volatility, however a -5.65% decline is facilitated by the fact that there is limited volume data for these levels before a support level that is historically 1.55 Buyers to every Seller occurs.

Due to the five & a half month floundering around in the consolidation range of $386.44-341.49 there may be some strength here for support, but sellers will still be coming out at these levels.

There is a -13.96% potential decline that currently has mostly buyer dominated sentiment over the past 1-2 years, but it seems most likely that if there is a downside test that breaks that $386.44 price level that the Buyer zones below will either become more diluted, or become Seller dominated in the near-to-mid term.

QQQ has support at the $404.09 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $395.34 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*)$392.08 (50 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $386.44/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.55:1) price levels, with resistance at the $412.92/share (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price level.

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF had the weakest week by major index, declining -0.01%.

Their RSI is neutral at 50.14, while their MACD is in bearish decline following the declines of the new year.

Volumes were +15.74% above average last week compared to the year prior (37,456,920 vs. 32,362,470), which casts a bearish picture given that the two strongest sessions by volume were Thursday & Friday’s declines.

Monday’s session stopped the bleeding from last week with a wide range candle, however the lower shadow is longer than the upper shadow meaning that there was still a test for more downside & Monday’s session also had the lowest volume of the week, despite having the widest real body (also bearish).

The rest of the week became a consolidation range that filled in the window left by a gap up from early-to-mid December.

Tuesday’s session produced a bearish harami pattern, while Wednesday’s candle was a hanging man, signaling indecision & a probable reversal to the downside.

Thursday confirmed this & gave us a test to the downside, with the very long lower shadow hitting -1.94% lower than the session prior’s close.

Friday opened markedly higher as investors wanted to test the resistance of the very bearish looking 10 day moving average.

While IWM temporarily broke out above it, it was short lived & the day closed lower & tested even lower than where it closed.

Given the high volume of these sessions & their continuance to test to the downside, it appears that the near-term outlook for IWM is also bleak & will feature further consolidation/declines.

Their ATR is currently trending upwards, meaning that we may begin to see some even larger, more volatile moves in the coming week.

There is a lot of historic Buyer sentiment for IWM at their next support levels from the past 1-2 years, which is mostly all Buyer dominated for the next -10.85% minus the $188-189.99 zone that the sellers dominated & the $180-181.99/share zone which has been even Buyers:Sellers 1:1.

Given the way IWM tends to oscillate around a more centralized zone of prices compared to the aggressive growth of other indexes this may hold up, but if it breaks down there is nothing but Seller sentiment all the way down to their 52-week low.

IWM has support at the $191.30 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 5:1), $190.27 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 5:1), $187.67 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.5:1) & $187.27/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.5:1) price levels, with resistance at the $195.49 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 7.67:1), $196.34 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2:1), $197.10 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2:1) & $205.49/share (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF edged forward +0.34% last week, as they have slowed down over the past two weeks after a couple of months of explosive growth & being an investor favorite.

Their RSI is trending back towards neutral from overbought, but still sits high at 64.58, while their MACD is declining.

Volumes were +5.57% above average last week compared to the year prior (3,693,380 vs. 3,498,473), indicating that there is a great deal of indecision among investors at this price level, given how small their week’s advance was.

Monday kicked the week off on a bullish note, with a wide range session that briefly tested lower before powering through the resistance of the 10 day moving average.

Tuesday thought began to indicate that there is weakness in the current price sentiment, as the day closed with a spinning top candle that completed a bearish harami that opened & closed below the 10 DMA & was unable to break through it to the upside during the day’s session.

Wednesday opened below the 10 DMA, but was able to break through the resistance, but it should be noted that this move was done on the weakest volume of the week, which is not a signal of confidence.

Thursday confirmed this, when a hanging man candle closed the session indicating that there is far more interest in prices being lower than their current mark (as noted by the lower shadow, which broke deep below the 10 DMA’s support) & the candle itself’s real body closed lower than it opened, indicating weakness & uncertainty.

The risk-off theme continued on Friday, with a declining session that broke through the support of the 10 day moving average, tested much lower, before closing just beneath it.

The 10 DMA is also beginning to curl over bearishly, which would mean that its resistance level would be applying downward pressure on DIA’s share price.

This is troubling, as like SPY & QQQ, DIA’s 50 DMA is the next highest level of support, but currently does not have meaningful enough data to gauge whether it is a buyer or seller dominated zone over the past 3-4 years.

The next support level is -5.95% below the current price, which while it is Buyer dominated 6:1, it has not faced any downside pressure over the past 3-4 years, so it will likely not hold up particularly strongly (at least as strongly as the 6:1 ratio implies).

The $319-321 support zone will be an interesting area to keep an eye on should prices decline towards there, as it is seller dominated, but has not been tested much to the upside.

In the event that it does not hold up, there is likely going to be a re-test of the 52-week low based on the Seller Sentiment at those price levels.

Their ATR is beginning to perk higher, indicating that there is slightly more volatility in DIA’s trading, which will likely continue into earnings season as investors begin to take chips off of the table in the beginning of the new year.

DIA has support at the $360.70 (50 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $353.53 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 6:1), $348.67 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.27:1) & $342.91/share (200 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.08:1) price levels, with resistance at the $375.91/share (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price level.

The Week Ahead

Monday there are no major data announcements or earnings reports as the markets will be closed for Martin Luther King day.

Tuesday Fed Governor Christopher Waller is scheduled to speak at 11 am.

Goldman Sachs, Calavo Growers, Fulton Financial, Hancock Whitney, Interactive Brokers, Morgan Stanley, Pinnacle Financial Partners, PNC & Progress Software are all scheduled to report earnings on Tuesday.

Wednesday kicks off with Import Price Index, Import Price Index minus Fuel, U.S. Retail Sales & Retail Sales minus Autos at 8:30 am, Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr & Fed Governor Michelle Bowman speak at 9 am, before Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization data are released at 9:15 am.

After that on Wednesday, the Fed’s Beige Book is released at 2pm, followed by New York Fed President John Williams speaking at 3pm.

Kinder Morgan, Alcoa, Charles Schwab, Citizens Financial Group, Discover Financial Services, H.B. Fuller, Prologis, Synovus, U.S. Bancorp & Wintrust Financial all report earnings on Wednesday.

Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic speaks at 7:30 am & 12:05 pm on Thursday, in addition to Initial Jobless Claims, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey, Housing Starts & Building Permits data being released at 8:30 am.

Bank OZK, F.N.B. Corp, Fastenal, First Horizon, Home Bancshares, J.B. Hunt Transport, KeyCorp, M&T Bank, Northern Trust, PPG Industries, Texas Capital Bancshares & WNS are all reporting earnings on Thursday.

Friday the week winds down with Consumer Sentiment (prelim) & Existing Home Sales at 10 am, Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr speaking at 1om & San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly speaking at 4:15pm.

Travelers, Ally Financial, Comerica, Fifth Third, Huntington Banc, Regions Financial, SLB & State Street are all scheduled to report earnings on Friday.

See you back here next week!

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM OR DIA AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF declined -1.54% this past week, faring second best of the major indexes only to the Dow Jones Industrial Average, as market participants sought the safety of larger cap names.

Their RSI has trended back towards neutral after spending most of December in overbought territory & currently sits at 55.25, while their MACD is currently in bearish decline following the declines of the past week & a half.

Volumes were 20.73% above average compared to the year prior (99,250,522 vs. 82,211,072), with the first two sessions of the week’s declines being the heaviest, following last Friday’s footsteps as market participants were eager to take chips off of the table following the new 52-week high set the week prior.

This will be something to keep an eye on, given how weak the inflow volume has been the couple of weeks before that, especially now that the support of the 10 day moving average has been broken.

Another key area to be watching is the wide range candle from 12/13/2023, whose high & low for the session were $468.86 & $462.25.

While that range is only 1.4%, when compared to the other candles of the past 2 months it is one of the largest, and is currently keeping the gate before prices would decline into a range that would begin the creation of the right hand shoulder, with the 52-week high as the head.

The 50 day moving average is currently set up in a manner that would be able to provide support & an easing into said shoulder, which would likely be caused by a weaker than anticipated earnings season on the horizon.

The 10 DMA was able to support last Friday’s spinning top session, but Tuesday’s session opened below the 10 DMA, tested it & ultimately closed below the open, resulting in a spinning top candle.

While the real body is concentrated towards the top of the candle, the close being below the open on an already down session set a bearish tone for the week.

Wednesday the declines continued, although seller volume slightly dipped from the higher levels of Friday & Tuesday.

Another sign of uncertainty came Thursday when a spinning top candle was the result of the day’s session, but the real body of the candle was confined to the bottom 30% of the candle, which signaled that the ice may be starting to crack.

Friday continued the theme of uncertainty, with a +0.14% gain on a doji candle; which isn’t exactly risk off, but showed that there was hardly any appetite for more risk either.

Friday did see a little participation than Thursday, but given the resulting candle was a doji that was on the lower half of the day’s range it does not signal much confidence moving into the coming week.

The candle from 12/13 is not a support level, but the open of that day’s range will be something worth looking at now, as Friday’s candle entered into the range of it.

The next support level is ~2.5% below the current price where buyers have historically dominated the sellers 2.33:1 over the past 1-2 years, however given that we are near the 52-week high these numbers are skewed towards the advancing volume.

Looking at the chart below you can see that the buyer volume sentiment is currently winning the battle for the next -7.68%, but that the sentiment wanes the further down the prices go.

Sellers step in from there historically until a -11.1% decline, which would bring us to the $415.99-412/share range, where buyers have historically stepped back in 1.54:1.

Their Average True Range is still very low, due to the low volatility & tight trading ranges of the past couple of weeks, which will likely be increasing by the end of the coming week.

SPY has support at the $455.98 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.33:1), $451.72 (50 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.13:1), $450.25 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.13:1) & $439.84/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.6:1) price levels, with resistance at the $472.71 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $477.55/share (52-Week High; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF fell -3.12% this past week, as the tech heavy index was the second least favorite of market participants.

Their RSI has dipped below the neutral mark of 50 & sits at 48.19 following being in overbought territory for most of December, while their MACD is bearish & signaling further declines.

Volumes were -9.78% below average this week compared to the year prior (47,239,585 vs. 52,357,932), as market participants were skeptical following Tuesday’s declines that were steeper than last Friday’s risk off price action.

Last Friday the support of the 10 day moving average held up, but Tuesday opened, closed & tested further below the 10 DMA’s resistance, before the rest of the week was riddled with indecisive candles.

Wednesday featured a spinning top that’s real body was concentrated on the lower end of the day’s range, while Thursday & Friday’s sessions each resulted in gravestone dojis, signaling uncertainty, but with market participants favoring the bearish end of the days’ ranges.

The $400/share mark will be where to keep an eye on now, as the past two days’ sessions upper shadows tested the level, but the bodies of the candles closed ~1% below (near where they opened).

In terms of support, there are two touch-points ~2.5% below the current price of QQQ, one being the 50 day moving average at $386.03 & the other being at $386.44/share, which is a candidate for being the left shoulder in the event a head & shoulders pattern emerges, using the 52-week high as the head.

Something to keep an eye on it the 10 day moving average, as it looks identical to a head & shoulders pattern & has begun to descend into the right hand shoulder, which from where we stand today looks like it would form by the end of January.

Given that the 50 DMA is moving up at the price level though this may become interesting, as if the price breaks through its support it would then become an added layer of resistance & force QQQ’s price lower.

The 200 DMA also is something to keep watch on over the next month, as it currently is -9% below the price of QQQ & is moving higher day by day (slowly).

Given the below average volumes it does appear that there is waning sentiment towards the NASDAQ names, particularly after some of its largest components led the entire market higher on their own for the past handful of months while other companies did not perform nearly as well.

This will likely give way as market participants take some chips off of the table earlier into the year to secure profits before a year that is sure to be marred with uncertainty.

Like SPY, their Average True Range is also on the lower end of its range, due to the small price range declining sessions that we’ve seen over the past week & a half, but once earnings season begins there should be more volatility & the ATR will march higher.

This may not occur until next week as the earlier names reporting earnings may have little impact on the NASDAQ.

The $380-383.99/share mark will be a critical area to watch, as that is the strongest buyer dominated price zone over the past 1-2 years at 4:1 Buyers:Sellers (-4.22% from current price), with the $360-363.99/share level being next (-9.26% from current price) in terms of buyer strength.

While the other price zones are relatively buyer oriented or even, this looks primed to even out in the course of the coming few months & will be something to watch.

QQQ has support at the $393.15 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $386.44 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.55:1), $386.03 (50 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.55:1) & $383.35/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 4:1) price levels, with resistance at the $405.27 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $412.92/share (52-Week High; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF has the worst week of the major indexes, dipping -3.69% as investors were weary of small cap names that had been enjoying a solid run up from a 52-week low in October of 2023 to a new 52-week high in December.

Their RSI has just retreated to the near neutral level & sits at 51.34, after spending most of December in overbought territory following a +27.57% run from a new 52-week low to 52-week high that began at the end of October & ended mid-December 2023.

Their MACD is also currently in bearish decline due to the declines from the 52-week high.

Volumes were 44.12% above average compared to the year prior (46,084,180 vs. 31,976,621), as market participants were eager to take their winnings off of the table, signaling that the “January Effect” may not be taking place this year.

All of this week’s bearish volumes eclipsed the volumes of the week & a half prior, signaling that there looks to be blood in the water.

Much like SPY & QQQ, last Friday’s session was held up by the support of the 10 day moving average for IWM.

However, Tuesday opened, tested & broke above the 10 DMA, before closing well below it on a doji candle, signaling uncertainty, but also a risk off attitude.

Wednesday kicked off with a gap down, which tried briefly to break higher but left a large window, before declining ~1.7% in a wide range session to the downside.

Thursday the painful outlook continued, as IWM opened near the close of the day prior, tested higher but couldn’t reach the $196/share mark, before closing lower on a spinning top candle.

Friday’s session offered a glimmer of hope that was still tainted with uncertainty, as the session opened below Thursday’s close, tested to Thursday’s high but ultimately closed lower thant he day’s open on volume that was not much weaker than Tuesday & Thursday’s.

It will be interesting to see how support levels for IWM hold up in the coming weeks, as they have been the most apt to fluctuate back & forth index compared to the others that mostly have just continued to climb before oscillating around a range near the tops.

While the next 11% decline is mostly buyer dominated levels by volume, it will be worth consulting this price level:volume sentiment analysis to see the breakdown of their support levels & prior volume sentiments at each level.

Should an 11% decline be on the cards, that hits the $172/share mark, which will test support zones created by prior consolidation ranges, however the sellers takeover there all the way down to the 52-week low, which will make it interesting to see if that low level is tested again & if it holds up or not.

Their Average True Range is near its mean & will be another area of interest to watch in the coming weeks to see whether we get more volatility & a strong trend to one side or the other, or if there is more of a weak ranged consolidation period on the cards for us.

The small cap IWM index has shown on average wider range sessions than the other indexes this past year though & will likely continue this trend.

IWM has support at the $190.27 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 5:1), $187.67 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.5:1), $187.27 (volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.5:1) & $186.19/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.5:1) price levels, with resistance at the $196.34 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2:1), $197.10 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2:1), $199.56 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $205.49/share (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF had the strongest week of the major indexes, but still slipped down -0.58% for the first week of the new year.

Their RSI is slightly under overbought territory & currently sits at 68.16, after spending most of the prior two months above 70 (overbought).

It is worth noting that a head & shoulders pattern in their RSI developed during that time, signaling that there should be a reversion towards the neutral level in the near-term, particularly after the ascent they took over the past 2 months.

Their MACD is bearish & continuing lower since around the time that they set a new 52-week high at the end of 2023.

Volumes were 55.6% above average this week compared to the year prior (5,449,479 vs. 3,502,129), which is a source of confusion, as it shows investors are still flocking to the larger cap stocks in times of shakeup & 3 of the past 4 sessions were bullish.

However, it is worth noting that the highest volume session of last week was Wednesday’s bearish declining session, which is the second highest volume session of the past 9-10 months.

Their 10 day moving average will also be an area of interest to keep an eye on, as it is now acting as resistance just above Friday’s close.

Last week kicked off on Tuesday with a move up that was supported by the 10 DMA, setting the 52-week high to $337.82/share.

Wednesday saw declines that closed beneath the support of the 10 DMA on the highest volumes of the week.

Thursday resulted in a gravestone doji that opened & closed just beneath the 10 DMA on weak volume, but was an advancing session, indicating that there is extreme uncertainty at these levels.

Friday the indecision continued, with a doji candle that’s real body was also contained by the resistance of the 10 day moving average, which is now curled over & applying more downwards pressure on the share price than it had been earlier in the week.

While Friday’s session had more volume than Thursday’s, it still signals that there is great uncertainty & a lack of confidence in prices at these levels.

12/13’s candle will also be an area to keep an eye on, as the opening level, while not a formal support point, is the gateway to what would be the right hand shoulder should a head & shoulders pattern emerge using the 52-week high as a head.

The $336-340 zone will also be a place to keep an eye on should prices dip that low.

Those are the strongest current buyer dominated zones within -12.5% of the current price & the sellers come out in droves for an additional 4-5% below that, which would pose a challenge to the support of the 52-week low from March of 2023.

Given that this is ~18% below their current price there is time to see how things may go should declines venture that far south, but given the space between the current price & support levels it may come sooner than we think.

DIA has support at the $355.76 (50 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 6:1), $353.53 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 6:1), $348.67 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.27:1) & $342.39/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.08:1) price levels, with resistance at the $375.40 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $377.82/share (52-Week High; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

The Week Ahead

Monday the week kicks off with Consumer Credit data reported at 3pm.

Accolade, Helen of Troy & Jefferies are all scheduled to report earnings on Monday.

Trade Deficit data is scheduled to be released at 8:30 am on Tuesday.

Acuity Brands, Albertsons, AZZ, Neogen, PriceSmart, SMART Global, TD Synnex, Tilray & WD-40 are all scheduled to report earnings on Tuesday.

Wednesday brings us Wholesale Inventories data at 10 am & at 3:15 pm New York Fed President John Williams is scheduled to speak.

KB Home is set to report earnings on Wednesday.

Things heat up on Thursday with Initial Jobless Claims, CPI & Core CPI Year-over-Year data released at 8:30 am, followed by the Budget Statement at 2pm.

Friday the week winds down with PPI & Core PPI Year-over-Year data at 8:30 am.

Delta Airlines, Wells Fargo, Bank of America, BlackRock, BNY Mellon, Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase & United Health are all due to report earnings on Friday.

See you back here next week!

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM OR DIA AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***