Author: OptimizedValue

Since our last check in on SPY, QQQ, IWM & DIA’s Price Level:Volume Sentiment markets have seen an uptick in volatility & descended ~4-5% from their recent 52-week highs (all-time highs for 3 of the 4, IWM being the exception).

While there have been a few bullish days this week, the trend of increased volatility looks to continue, particularly as we are in earnings season & experiencing geo-political tensions that are higher than they’ve been in the past year.

With this in mind, the article below outlines the Buyer:Seller (or Seller:Buyer) sentiment at the various price levels that SPY (S&P 500), QQQ (NASDAQ 100), IWM (Russell 2000) & DIA (Dow Jones Industrial Average) ETFs have traded at over the past few years to gain insight into how market participants may feel at different support & resistance levels.

Each section below contains a view of each index ETF’s chart (for a technical breakdown of each ETF’s chart please see this past weekend’s market review note), as well as a list of their current one year support & resistance levels with the volume sentiment noted beneath it on the table.

There is an additional table beneath this table with each price level’s sentiment, as well as a typed text version below that is able to be copied & pasted.

Note that “NULL, 0:0*” values denote areas that each name has traded at but with limited volume data to work with from a comparison standpoint in terms of creating a ratio of buyers:sellers (or vice versa).

Also, prices that do have a ratio of buyers:sellers (or vice versa) where the denominator is 0 are denoted with an asterisk “*” as well.

In the written lists of the price levels & volume sentiments the price levels that contain support & resistance levels are marked in BOLD.

Recall that at price extremes such as the highs that we have recently hit there will tend to be skewed data due to the small sample size & factor that into how you interpret each price level’s sentiment.

This is intended to serve as an additional tool to use during your due diligence process & is not meant to replace doing your own research & is not financial advice.

Also, captions & images are not aligned due to a JavaScript issue, apologies for the inconvenience & working on a solution to fix it.

Price Level:Volume Sentiment Analysis For SPY (S&P 500) ETF

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF has recently fallen from a new all-time high in the wake of increased volatility & looks set to continue cooling down in the coming week(s).

With limited support levels due to the rapid ascent of its price between late October 2023 & March of 2024 it is important to have an understanding of how market participants have behaved at the price levels that will be serving as support.

Below is a list of the price levels with the volume sentiment each has traded at over the past 2-3 years.

$525 – NULL – 0:0*; +3.83% From Current Price Level

$520 – Even – 1:1; +2.84% From Current Price Level

$515 – Buyers – 2.5:1; +1.85% From Current Price Level

$510 – Sellers – 2.31:1; +0.86% From Current Price Level

$505 – Buyers – 1.29:1; -0.13% From Current Price Level – 10 & 50 Day Moving Averages – Current Price Box***

$500 – Sellers – 3.5:1; -1.12% From Current Price Level

$496 – Buyers – 2.25:1; -1.91% From Current Price Level

$492 – Buyers – 1.25:1; -2.7% From Current Price Level

$488 – Sellers – 2.25:1; -3.49% From Current Price Level

$484 – Buyers – 2.2:1; -4.28% From Current Price Level

$480 – Buyers – 2.33:1; -5.07% From Current Price Level

$476 – NULL – 0:0*; -5.86% From Current Price Level

$472 – Buyers – 1.71:1; -6.65% From Current Price Level

$468 – Buyers – 1.73:1; -7.45% From Current Price Level

$464 – Sellers – 2.33:1; -8.24% From Current Price Level – 200 Day Moving Average*

$460 – Buyers – 0.4:0*; -9.03% From Current Price Level

$456 – Buyers – 1:0*; -9.82% From Current Price Level

$452 – Buyers – 3.11:1; -10.61% From Current Price Level

$448 – Buyers – 1.84:1; -11.4% From Current Price Level

$444 – Buyers – 1.67:1; -12.19% From Current Price Level

$440 – Buyers – 1.3:1; -12.98% From Current Price Level

$436 – Buyers – 2:1; -13.77% From Current Price Level

$432 – Even – 1:1; -14.57% From Current Price Level

$428 – Buyers – 1.35:1; -15.36% From Current Price Level

$424 – Sellers – 1.49:1; -16.15% From Current Price Level

$420 – Buyers – 1.25:1; -16.94% From Current Price Level

$416 – Sellers – 3.79:1; -17.73% From Current Price Level

$412 – Buyers – 2.04:1; -18.52% From Current Price Level

$408 – Buyers – 1.35:1; -19.31% From Current Price Level

$404 – Sellers – 1.16:1; -20.1% From Current Price Level

$400 – Sellers – 1.37:1; -20.89% From Current Price Level

$396 – Sellers – 1.7:1; -21.68% From Current Price Level

$392 – Buyers – 3.82:1; -22.48% From Current Price Level

$388 – Buyers – 1.73:1; -23.27% From Current Price Level

$384 – Sellers – 1.36:1; -24.06% From Current Price Level

$380 – Sellers – 3.29:1; -24.85% From Current Price Level

$376 – Sellers – 1.67:1; -25.64% From Current Price Level

$372 – Sellers – 2.57:1; -26.43% From Current Price Level

$368 – Sellers – 1.49:1; -27.22% From Current Price Level

$364 – Sellers – 1.53:1; -28.01% From Current Price Level

$360 – Sellers – 1.93:1; -28.8% From Current Price Level

$356 – Buyers – 1.43:1; -29.6% From Current Price Level

$352 – Sellers – 3.2:0*; -30.39% From Current Price Level

$348 – Sellers – 3.6:0*; -31.18% From Current Price Level

$344 – NULL – 0:0*; -31.97% From Current Price Level

$340 – NULL – 0:0*; -32.76% From Current Price Level

Price Level:Volume Sentiment Analysis For QQQ (NASDAQ 100) ETF

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF tracks the performance of the NASDAQ 100 & has also recenly descended from its all-time high.

It has more consolidated support levels than SPY does as it did not rise as rapidly as SPY, but given the tech-heavy nature of the index it is still susceptible to increased volatility in the coming week(s), making it worth reviewing the strength of the support levels beneath it.

Below is a list of the price levels with the volume sentiment each has traded at over the past 2-3 years.

$452 – NULL – 0:0*; +6.34% From Current Price Level

$448 – NULL – 0:0*; +5.39% From Current Price Level

$444 – Buyers – 3.67:1; +4.45% From Current Price Level

$440 – Buyers -1.3:1; +3.51% From Current Price Level

$436 – Buyers – 1.32:1; +2.57% From Current Price Level – 50 Day Moving Average*

$432 – Sellers – 2.36:1; +1.63% From Current Price Level

$428 – Buyers – 2.5:1; +0.69% From Current Price Level – 10 Day Moving Average*

$424 – Sellers – 2.08:1; -0.25% From Current Price Level – Current Price Box*

$420 – Buyers – 9.5:1; -1.19% From Current Price Level

$416 – Sellers – 0.7:0*; -2.13% From Current Price Level

$412 – Buyers – 0.6:0*; -3.07% From Current Price Level

$408 – Buyers – 1.8:1; -4.02% From Current Price Level

$404 – Buyers – 4.4:1; -4.96% From Current Price Level

$400 – Sellers – 1.36:1; -5.9% From Current Price Level

$396 – Buyers – 3:1; -6.84% From Current Price Level

$392 – Buyers – 1.33:1; -7.78% From Current Price Level – 200 Day Moving Average*

$388 – Buyers – 4.8:1; -8.72% From Current Price Level

$384 – Buyers – 1.13:1; -9.66% From Current Price Level

$380 – Buyers – 1.85:1; -10.6% From Current Price Level

$376 – Buyers – 4.25:1; -11.54% From Current Price Level

$372 – Sellers – 1.25:1; -12.49% From Current Price Level

$368 – Sellers – 1.47:1; -13.43% From Current Price Level

$364 – Buyers – 1.82:1; -14.37% From Current Price Level

$360 – Buyers – 1.16:1; -15.31% From Current Price Level

$356 – Sellers – 1.21:1; -16.25% From Current Price Level

$352 – Even – 1:1; -17.19% From Current Price Level

$348 – Buyers – 1.86:1; -18.13% From Current Price Level

$344 – Sellers – 1.23:1; -19.07% From Current Price Level

$340 – Buyers – 3.6:1; -20.01% From Current Price Level

$336 – Sellers – 1.08:1; -20.95% From Current Price Level

$332 – Buyers – 1.44:1; -21.9% From Current Price Level

$328 – Sellers – 1.33:1; -22.84% From Current Price Level

$324 – Buyers – 3.17:1; -23.78% From Current Price Level

$320 – Buyers – 2.2:1; -24.72% From Current Price Level

$316 – Sellers – 1.42:1; -25.66% From Current Price Level

$312 – Sellers – 2.09:1; -26.6% From Current Price Level

$308 – Sellers – 1.12:1; -27.54% From Current Price Level

$304 – Buyers – 1.51:1; -28.48% From Current Price Level

$300 – Sellers – 1.68:1; -29.42% From Current Price Level

$296 – Buyers – 2.07:1; -30.36% From Current Price Level

$292 – Buyers – 1.66:1; -31.31% From Current Price Level

$288 – Buyers – 1.31:1; -32.25% From Current Price Level

$284 – Sellers – 2.29:1; -33.19% From Current Price Level

$280 – Sellers – 1.08:1; -34.13% From Current Price Level

$276 – Buyers – 1.13:1; -35.07% From Current Price Level

$272 – Sellers – 1.94:1; -36.01% From Current Price Level

$268 – Buyers – 1.26:1; -36.95% From Current Price Level

$264 – Sellers – 1.25:1; -37.89% From Current Price Level

$260 – Sellers – 2.17:1; -38.83% From Current Price Level

$256 – Sellers – 3.3:0*; -39.77% From Current Price Level

Price Level:Volume Sentiment Analysis For IWM (Russell 2000) ETF

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF is coming off of a 52-week high, but it did not set an all-time high this past year like its three larger peers in this article.

They tend to trade more in an oscillating range, rather than the steeper ascent taken by SPY, QQQ & DIA, so they have more support levels around their current price than their peers.

However, the small cap index is not immune from the same volatility that the other indexes are experiencing.

Below is a list of the price levels with the volume sentiment each has traded at over the past 2-3 years.

$212 – NULL – 0:0*; +6.76% From Current Price Level

$208 – Buyers – 2.75:1; +4.75% From Current Price Level

$204 – Buyers – 1.83:1; +2.73% From Current Price Level

$200 – Buyers – 1.08:1; +0.72% From Current Price Level – 50 Day Moving Average*

$198 – Buyers – 2.47:1; -0.29% From Current Price Level – Current Price Box*

$196 – Buyers – 3.38:1; -1.29% From Current Price Level – 10 Day Moving Average*

$194 – Buyers – 1.06:1; -2.3% From Current Price Level

$192 – Sellers – 2.97:1; -3.31% From Current Price Level

$190 – Buyers – 1.3:1; -4.32% From Current Price Level

$188 – Sellers – 1.15:1; -5.32% From Current Price Level – 200 Day Moving Average*

$186 – Buyers – 2.56:1; -6.33% From Current Price Level

$184 – Buyers – 2.71:1; -7.34% From Current Price Level

$182 – Sellers – 1.04:1; -8.34% From Current Price Level

$180 – Sellers – 1.5:1; -9.35% From Current Price Level

$178 – Buyers – 1.76:1; -10.36% From Current Price Level

$176 – Buyers – 2.07:1; -11.37% From Current Price Level

$174 – Buyers – 1.31:1; -12.37% From Current Price Level

$172 – Buyers – 1.53:1; -13.38% From Current Price Level

$170 – Sellers – 2.07:1; -14.39% From Current Price Level

$168 – Sellers – 1.14:1; -15.4% From Current Price Level

$166 – Sellers – 3.13:1; -16.4% From Current Price Level

$164 – Sellers – 1.29:1; -17.41% From Current Price Level

$162 – Buyers – 1.5:1; -18.42% From Current Price Level

$160 – Sellers – 0.8:0*; -19.42% From Current Price Level

Price Level:Volume Sentiment Analysis For DIA (Dow Jones Industrial Average) ETF

DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF is also coming off of all-time highs set in March of 2024.

Below is a list of the price levels with the volume sentiment each has traded at over the past 3-4 years.

$396 – Buyers – 0.6:0*; +2.85% From Current Price Level

$392 – Sellers – 3.5:1; +1.81% From Current Price Level

$388 – Buyers – 1.08:1; +0.77% From Current Price Level

$384 – Sellers – 1.25:1; -0.26% From Current Price Level – Curren Price Box & 50 Day Moving Average**

$380 – Buyers – 2.67:1; -1.3% From Current Price Level – 10 Day Moving Average*

$376 – Buyers – 2.25:1; -2.34% From Current Price Level

$372 – Buyers – 3.33:1; -3.38% From Current Price Level

$368 – Buyers – 1.57:1; -4.42% From Current Price Level

$364 – NULL – 0:0*; -5.46% From Current Price Level

$360 – Buyers – 7:1; -6.5% From Current Price Level – 200 Day Moving Average*

$356 – Sellers – 2:1; -7.54% From Current Price Level

$352 – Buyers – 0.1:0*; -8.58% From Current Price Level

$348 – Buyers – 3.43:1; -9.62% From Current Price Level

$344 – Sellers – 1.03:1; -10.65% From Current Price Level

$340 – Buyers – 1.38:1; -11.69% From Current Price Level

$336 – Buyers – 1.64:1; -12.73% From Current Price Level

$332 – Buyers – 1.18:1; -13.77% From Current Price Level

$328 – Sellers – 1.12:1; -14.81% From Current Price Level

$324 – Buyers – 1.1:1; -15.85% From Current Price Level

$320 – Sellers – 1.44:1; -16.89% From Current Price Level

$316 – Sellers – 1.14:1; -17.93% From Current Price Level

$312 – Sellers – 1.64:1; -18.97% From Current Price Level

$308 – Buyers – 1.04:1; -20% From Current Price Level

$304 – Buyers – 1.69:1; -21.04% From Current Price Level

$300 – Buyers – 1.06:1; -22.08% From Current Price Level

$296 – Buyers – 1.28:1; -23.12% From Current Price Level

$292 – Even – 1:1; -24.16% From Current Price Level

$288 – Sellers – 1.56:1; -25.2% From Current Price Level

$284 – Buyers – 1.31:1; -26.24% From Current Price Level

$280 – Sellers – 1.36:1; -27.28% From Current Price Level

$276 – Buyers – 1.17:1; -28.32% From Current Price Level

$272 – Buyers – 4:1; -29.35% From Current Price Level

$268 – Buyers – Buyers – 7:1; -30.39% From Current Price Level

$264 – Sellers – 1.17:1; -31.43% From Current Price Level

$260 – Buyers – 1.46:1; -32.47% From Current Price Level

$256 – Sellers – 1.17:1; -33.51% From Current Price Level

$252 – Buyers – 2.2:1; -34.55% From Current Price Level

$248 – Buyers – 1.46:1; -35.59% From Current Price Level

$244 – Buyers – 4:1; -36.63% From Current Price Level

$240 – Buyers – 1.8:1; -37.67% From Current Price Level

$236 – Buyers – 1.25:1; -38.7% From Current Price Level

$232 – Sellers – 4.5:1; -39.74% From Current Price Level

$228 – Buyers – 6:1; -40.78% From Current Price Level

$224 – Buyers – 1.17:1; -41.82% From Current Price Level

$220 – Buyers – 2:1; -42.86% From Current Price Level

$216 – Even – 1:1; -43.9% From Current Price Level

$212 – Sellers – 0.3:0*; -44.94% From Current Price Level

$208 – Buyers – 1.8:0*; -45.98% From Current Price Level

$204 – Buyers – 0.3:0*; -47.02% From Current Price Level

$200 – Sellers – 1:0*; -48.05% From Current Price Level

$198 – Buyers – 0.4:0*; -48.57% From Current Price Level

$196 – Buyers – 0.9:0*; -49.09% From Current Price Level

$194 – Sellers – 0.8:0*; -49.61% From Current Price Level

$192 – NULL – 0:0*; -50.13% From Current Price Level

$190 – Buyers – 0.8:0*; -50.65% From Current Price Level

$188 – NULL – 0:0*; -51.17% From Current Price Level

$186 – Buyers – 0.7:0* -51.69% From Current Price Level

$184 – NULL – 0:0*; -52.21% From Current Price Level

$182 – NULL – 0:0*; -52.73% From Current Price Levels

$180 – NULL – 0:0*; -53.25% From Current Price Level

$178 – Sellers – 0.7:0*; -53.77% From Current Price Level

$176 – NULL – 0:0*; -54.29% From Current Price Level

$174 – NULL – 0:0*; -54.81% From Current Price Level

$172 – Sellers – 0.8:0*; -55.33% From Current Price Level

$170 – NULL – 0:0*; -55.85% From Current Price Level

$168 – NULL – 0:0*; -56.37% From Current Price Level

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM OR DIA AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF fell -3.07% this past week, having the second worst weekly performance of the major four indexes, in a week where the VIX closing at 18 indicates anticipated one day moves of +/- 1.18% & a monthly anticipated move of +/-3.41%.

Their RSI is approaching oversold territory & currently sits at 31.21, while their MACD continues lower in a bearish trend that began at the beginning of the month.

Volumes were +7.08% above average last week compared to the year prior (83,634,580 vs. 78,101,687), which should be noted by market participants given that all five days of the week resulted in declines.

It’s not unreasonable for folks to begin hopping out of the pool to protect their profits after the rapid ascent SPY has had over the past six months, but it appears that there may be more to it under the hood.

Monday kicked off the week on a very sour note for SPY, with a large bearish engulfing candle that eclipsed Friday’s entire session, while being denied by the resistance of the 10 day moving average & then proceeding to crash below the 50 DMA & close below it.

Tuesday continued the declines, but in a more cautious manner as it didn’t have near the volume of Monday (second highest of the week) & resulted in a spinning top, which cast uncertainty onto how the rest of the week would go.

The sellers came back on Wednesday, forming another bearish engulfing pattern & testing the waters out below the $500/share price level for SPY, although on similar volumes as Tuesday.

Thursday painted a more bearish image, as the declines continued on similar volumes, but price action was focused more towards the bottom of the day’s candlestick in terms of the real body, which has bearish implications.

Friday the week ended on a wildly bearish note, as the 10 day moving average crossed bearishly through the 50 day moving average on the highest volumes of the week, resulting in a -0.87% decline.

While SPY tested above $500/share briefly on Friday, its open & close were both below it, meaning that the $501.94 resistance level is holding strong.

As we enter a new week there will likely be some form of a consolidation range beneath this price mark before a move lower to test the support at $489.20.

With prices now no longer enjoying the support of the 50 DMA, one thing to keep an eye on moving forward is in the event of future declines, how the support levels are spread out.

After SPY’s rapid ascent over the past 6 months or so there are not as many support levels nearby compared to other indexes that grew at more controlled rates.

This leaves SPY open to potential declines as there isn’t much to find footing on should a couple more declining sessions occur in the coming week(s).

Their Average True Range is still climbing after a week rocked with volatility, which will be another area to keep an eye on this upcoming week, as increased volatility will result in the testing of these unstable support levels.

SPY has support at the $489.20 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $476.07 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $464.99 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $463.56/share (200 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), with resistance at the $501.94 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), 508.42 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $509.66 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $524.61/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF that tracks the NASDAQ 100 declined -5.39% last week, as investors & market participants shunned the technology heavy index during a week widely spent profit taking.

Their RSI is in oversold territory & currently sits at 29.78, while their MACD continues its bearish nosedive that began at the beginning of the month.

Volumes were +17.85% above average last week compared to the year before’s average (57,927,820 vs. 49,155,742), which is cause for concern given that there was only one bullish session, which had the second lowest volume of the week.

Much like SPY, QQQ began last week opening above the 10 day moving average, before ultimately declining beneath it & being unable to be supported by the 50 DMA.

Tuesday continued the negative theme for QQQ, as the session resulted in a gravestone doji on the second weakest volume of the week.

The weakness carried into Wednesday when another wide range declining day set a bearish engulfing pattern & volumes were higher than Friday’s “slight advancing” session.

Thursday we saw further declines but on the lowest volumes of the week, which begged the question of if market participants were maybe becoming tired of selling & if they’d be happy with the current price levels.

Friday arrived & showed that they weren’t, as the highest volume session of the week pushed prices down below the $415/share price level to enter the weekend at $414.65/share.

Friday’s volume was also noteworthy as in addition to being the largest of the week, it is one of the largest in the entire past year, and still came in the wake of a week filled with declines, signaling investor sentiment is currently weak.

Another area for concern is that after Friday’s close, the next support level for QQQ is ~-0.5% away, and from that support level should it be broken, the next one is an additional ~-4.2% lower from there (~4.7% total decline from Friday’s closing price).

The good news is that the support level is question happens to be the 200 day moving average, but given how slow that average moves it is unlikely to advance much higher & save the decline.

Volatility has kicked up dramatically for QQQ & their Average True Range is nearing the top of its chart as a result.

Like SPY, there should be some form of early week consolidation, particularly with no major economic data being released on Monday.

How long that range can hold up will hinge on the strength of the $412.37 support level, but it should at least provide the decline with a breather & some time for oscillators to cool down.

QQQ has support at the $412.37 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.6:0*), $395 (200 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers 0.4:0*), $394.82 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers 0.4:0*) & $392.63/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers 0.4:0*), with resistance at the $416.24 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 0.8:0*), $421.07 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 5.5:1), $429.28 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.07:1) & $433.08/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.5:1) price levels.

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF dropped -2.79% this past week, as market participants were eager to sell their small cap holdings.

Their RSI is currently moving away from the oversold level, but sits at 33.79, while their MACD is still suffering from a bearish April.

Volumes were +18.01% above average compared to the year prior (41,142,740 vs. 34,864,840), as market participants were eager to take profits off of the table.

However, Friday’s session had the second highest volume of the week on its only advancing day, which we’ll dive into shortly.

Monday was a wide range declining session that set the stage for the rest of the week’s bearishness.

Tuesday was a high wave candle with a spinning top that temporarily flashed perhaps there was some hope for the bulls as it closed above where it opened, despite being a declining session on what was the highest volume day of the week.

Wednesday IWM completed a bearish engulfing pattern, swiping down any chances of there being bullish sentiment for the week & Thursday’s candle followed suit, trending & testing lower with the candle’s real body showing that at the open & close, market participants were feeling bearish.

Then we get to Friday, which was the primary options expiration date for April of 2024, where it appears that there was quite an appetite for covering positions, as IWM advanced only +0.16%, but on the highest volume of the week.

The small advance on high volume is not bullish, but Monday does not feature any major economic data releases, so there may be momentum carried over into this upcoming week.

Much like SPY & QQQ were noted earlier, it would not be surprising to see IWM form a consolidation range early in the week as we wait for earnings data & economic data to be reported.

IWM has more support levels nearby than the aforementioned index ETFs due to the way it trades in more of an oscillating manner compared to larger cap index peers who trade more in terms of ascent & descent without spending much time in trading ranges.

Their Average True Range is currently declining after the gap down last week had it advancing, but it will likely see an uptick in the coming week(s).

IWM has support at the $189.78 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.5:1), $189.58 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.5:1), $188.53 (200 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.5:1) & $187.19/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.62:1), with resistance at the $195.89 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.21:1), $196.60 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.22:1), $198.37 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.81:1) & $198.90/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.81:1) price levels.

DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF inched forward +0.09% last week, having the only positive week of the major index ETFs.

Their RSI is rebounding from oversold territory, but still sits at 38.74, while their MACD is beginning to curl over, while still remaining bearish.

Volumes were +33.94% above average compared to the year prior’s average volume (4,698,620 vs. 3,508,088), which is interesting as the highest volume session of the week was Friday’s risk-on into the weekend day.

Monday kicked the week off with the second highest volumes of the week, but on a bearish note, with a bearish engulfing pattern created that set the stage for the week’s consolidation range that occurred within it.

Tuesday attempted to open roughly midway through the real body of Monday’s session, but despite opening higher than Monday’s close there was not enough bullish momentum to keep price levels high & the session closed lower than it opened, while also forming a bearish harami pattern.

Wednesday the bearish sentiment got turned up, as the session opened just below Tuesday’s opening price, tested slightly higher, before declining to the lowest point of the week’s consolidation range & setting up a new support level at the $375.94/share price level.

Thursday attempted to recover, opening higher & testing higher, but ultimately ended in a bearish indecisive manner as the session closed lower with a spinning top candle.

Friday gave the most interesting candle of the week though, where the highest volume session resulted in an advance of +0.57%.

This could well have been a side effect of short covering as Friday was the primary expiration date for April 2024.

Based on the size of the upper shadow, there was appetite, even if only temporarily, for higher DIA prices, but market participants shied away from approaching the 10 day moving average.

This week will be important to see how strong the resistance of the 10 DMA holds up & whether or not it is able to push the price of DIA lower, and or if the consolidation range continues & the price then becomes wedged in between the 10 & 50 DMAs.

This is especially true as their RSI is trending back towards the neutral level, which would leave it open again for DIA to be faced with more declines in the coming week(s).

Their Average True Range is still elevated, but has cooled off slightly following the consolidation range of last week where there was limited volatility.

In the event of onset volatility, the issue of one year support levels (or lack thereof) that has been raised multiple times over the past month(s) will become relevant again & something to keep an eye on.

DIA has support at the $378.75 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $375.94 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $359.57 (200 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $351.74/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.87:1), with resistance at the $381.54 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $387.53 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $387.66 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $398.61/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

The Week Ahead

Monday does not have any major economic data announcements scheduled.

Albertsons, AZZ, Bank of Hawaii, Truist Financial, Verizon Communications & Zions Bancorp all report earnings on Monday before the opening bell, with AGNC Investment, Alexandria RE, Brown & Brown, Cadence Bank, Cadence Design, Calix Networks, Cleveland-Cliffs, Crane, Equity Lifestyle Properties, Globe Life, HealthStream, Hexcel, Independant Bank Group, Medpace, Nucor, Packaging Corp of America, Pinnacle Financial Partners, SAP & Simpson Manufacturing scheduled to report earnings after the closing bell.

S&P Flash U.S. Services PMI & S&P Flash U.S. Manufacturing PMI data will be released Tuesday at 9:45 AM, followed by New Home Sales data at 10 am.

Tuesday morning’s before the bell earnings include Banc of California,  Danaher,  East West Bancorp,  First Bancorp,  First Commonwealth,  Fiserv,  Freeport-McMoRan,  GATX,  GE Aerospace,  General Motors,  Halliburton,  Herc Holdings,  Invesco,  JetBlue Airways,  Kimberly-Clark,  Lockheed Martin,  MSCI,  NextEra Energy,  NextEra Energy Partners,  Old National Bancorp,  Pentair,  PepsiCo,  Philip Morris International,  Polaris Industries,  PulteGroup,  Quest Diagnostics,  RTX,  Ryder System,  Sherwin-Williams,  Spotify,  United Parcel Service,  W.R. Berkley,  Webster Financial & Xerox, with Tesla, Baker Hughes,  Canadian National Railway,  Chubb,  CoStar Group,  Enphase Energy,  EQT Corp.,  Equity Residential,  Hawaiian Holdings,  IDEX Corp,  Matador Resources,  Mattel,  Range Resources,  Seagate Technology,  Steel Dynamics,  Stride, Texas Instruments, Trustmark, Veritex Holdings, Vicor, Visa, WesBanco & Zurn Elkay Water Solutions all reporting after the closing bell. 

Wednesday brings us Durable-Goods Orders & Durable-Goods Minus Transportation data at 8:30 am.

Amphenol, AT&T, Avery Dennison, Biogen, Boeing, BOK Financial, Boston Scientific, Bunge, CME Group, Constellium, Entergy, Evercore, Fortive, General Dynamics, Group 1 Auto, Hasbro, Healthcare Services Group, Helen of Troy, Hilton, Humana, Interpublic, Lennox International, Masco, Mr. Cooper Group, Navient, New Oriental Education & Technology, Norfolk Southern, Old Dominion Freight Line, Otis Worldwide, Owens Corning, Pacific Premier, Silicon Labs, Synchrony Financial, TE Connectivity, Teledyne Technologies, Thermo Fisher Scientific, Travel + Leisure Co, Vertiv Holdings, Virtu Financial, Wabash National & Watsco are scheduled to report earnings Wednesday morning, followed by Meta Platforms, Align Technology, Antero Midstream, Antero Resources, BioMarin Pharmaceutical, Century Communities, ChampionX, Chemed, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Churchill Downs, Community Health, Core Labs, Encompass Health, Ethan Allen, First American Financial, Ford Motor, Graco, International Business Machines, ICON, Impinj, Kaiser Aluminum, Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings, Lam Research, Landstar System, MaxLinear, Meritage Homes, Moelis, Molina Healthcare, Nabors Industries, Oceaneering International, O’Reilly Automotive, Pegasystems, Plexus, Prosperity Bancshares, QuantumScape, Raymond James, Rollins, Sallie Mae, ServiceNow, Sleep Number, Teradyne, Tyler Technologies, United Rentals, Universal Health Services, Viking Therapeutics, Waste Management, Western Union, Whirlpool & Wyndham Hotels & Resorts after the session’s close.

Thursday kicks off with GDP, Initial Jobless Claims, Advanced U.S. Trade Balance in Goods, Advanced Retail Inventories & Advanced Wholesale Inventories data at 8:30 am & Pending Home Sales at 10 am.

A.O. Smith, ADT, Allegion, Altria, American Airlines, Applied Industrial, Arch Resources, Asbury Automotive, AstraZeneca, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Brunswick, California Water, Carrier Global, Caterpillar, CBIZ, Check Point Software, CMS Energy, CNX Resources, Comcast, Cullen/Frost, Dover, Dow, DTE Energy, Expro Group, FTI Consulting, Grainger, Harley-Davidson, Hertz Global, Hess, Honeywell, IMAX, Insteel Industries, Integer Holdings, International Paper, Keurig Dr Pepper, Kirby, Laboratory Corp of America, Lakeland Financial, Lazard, Merck, Mobileye Global, Nasdaq, Newmont, Northrop Grumman, Oshkosh, PG&E, Pool, Reliance, Royal Caribbean, S&P Global, SAGE Therapeutics, Sanofi, Sonic Automotive, Southside Banc, Southwest Air, STMicroelectronics, TechnipFMC, Textron, Tractor Supply Company, Tradeweb Markets, TransUnion, TRI Pointe Homes, Union Pacific, Valero Energy, Visteon, West Pharmaceutical Services, WEX, Willis Towers Watson, WNS & Xcel Energy will all report earnings before the opening bell on Thursday, followed by Microsoft, AllianceBernstein, Alphabet, AppFolio, AptarGroup, Arthur J. Gallagher, Atlassian, AvalonBay, Boston Beer Co, Boyd Gaming, Capital One, Carlisle Cos, Casella Waste, Cincinnati Financial, Columbia Sportswear, CubeSmart, DexCom, Eastman Chemical, Edwards Lifesciences, Exponent, Fair Isaac, Federated Hermes, First Financial Bancorp, FirstEnergy, Gaming and Leisure Properties, Gilead Sciences, Hartford Financial, Healthpeak Properties, Hub Group, Intel, Juniper Networks, KLA, L3Harris, Mohawk, NerdWallet, Olin, Phillips Edison & Company, Principal Financial Group, PTC Therapeutics, ResMed, Robert Half, Roku, Skechers USA, SkyWest, Snap, SPS Commerce, Teladoc, Terex, T-Mobile US, VeriSign, Western Digital, Weyerhaeuser & WSFS Financial after the session’s close.

Personal Income (Nominal), Personal Spending (Nominal), PCE Index, PCE (Year-over-Year), Core PCE Index & Core PCE (Year-over-Year) are all released Friday morning at 8:30 am, followed by Consumer Sentiment (final) data at 10 am.

Friday morning AbbVie, Aon, Autoliv, AutoNation, Ball Corp, Barnes Group, Centene, Charter Communications, Chevron, Colgate-Palmolive, Exxon Mobil, First Hawaiian, Gentex, HCA, LyondellBasell, Newell Brands, Piper Sandler, Roper, Saia, T. Rowe Price, TriNet Group, U.S. Silica & WisdomTree are all scheduled to report earnings before the opening bell.

See you back here next week!

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM OR DIA AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF fell -1.46% last week, having the second best week of the major indexes behind the NASDAQ 100 (QQQ).

Their RSI is currently in a downtrend just beneath the neutral mark of 50 (currently at 45.4), while their MACD is also in a bearish decline following the recent consolidation during the month of April.

Volumes were -6.99% below average last week compared to the year prior (72,349,420 vs. 77,787,156), mostly due to Monday’s very low volume session, with the highest volumes of the week coming on Friday’s risk-off into the weekend play.

Monday began the week on a very low volume note & ultimately signaled uncertainty among market participants, as the session closed with a spinning top candle.

The session’s high was able to test the resistance of the 10 day moving average overhead, but ultimately the session closed lower than it opened, adding more fuel to the bearish fire.

That same sentiment carried into the rest of the week, as the ten day moving average became a solid resistance level & continued forcing prices lower as it began to sink as well.

Tuesday volumes began to perk up again, but the session itself still resulted in a candle that lacks confidence on the part of market participants.

The session opened on a gap up above the 10 day moving average, before testing lower almost to the level of the Friday prior’s open & ultimately settling right at the 10 DMA, but with a close that was lower than the open.

That certainly did not inspire confidence as the week continued on, leading to Wednesday’s gap down session that stuck with the theme of uncertainty, as the day resulted in a spinning top candle.

There was a glimmer of hope on Wednesday though, as the session despite declining did close higher than it opened, which provided some momentum for Thursday’s performance.

Thursday was the highest volume for an advancing day last week, but still was unable to outperform the volumes seen on either of the two declining days’ sessions.

The day resulted in a close that was just beneath the resistance of the 10 DMA, signaling that investors still generally believed in its strength, while also testing a lot of ground to the downside, as the candle’s shadow extended to about the low range of the session prior’s candle.

Friday saw the week come to a close on a bearish note, where the closing price sat just above the support of the 50 day moving average, while the top of the candle’s upper shadow was well beneath the 10 day moving average’s resistance.

Friday also was the highest volume session of the week, as market participants were eager to take their chips off of the table heading into the weekend in the wake of a week that showed the bears were coming out.

Much like the message of the last couple of weeks, this upcoming week will be largely dependent on the resilience of the support of the 50 day moving average, and the resistance of the 10 DMA.

SPY’s Average True Range has continued to climb, indicating an increase in volatility, which should be expected to continue as earnings season continues on & geo-political tensions continue to escalate.

If volatility continues at these heightened levels & the 50 DMA’s support is broken, SPY only has 5 support levels in the next -10% from their current price, including the 200 day moving average which is continuing to move higher towards the price.

This will be something to keep an eye on if declines continue as there are not a lot of places for SPY to establish footing in the event of a slide.

SPY has support at the $508.80 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $501.94 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $489.20 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $476.07/share (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels, with resistance at the $517.29 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $524.61/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF that tracks the NASDAQ 100 performed the best of the major indexes last week, losing only -0.5%.

Their RSI is trending downward after recently crossing over the neutral 50-mark & currently sits at 48.23, while their MACD is also trending bearishly.

Volumes were -6.81% less than the prior year’s average (45,649,180 vs. 48,987,675), which much like SPY’s were attributed to low volumes on Monday’s session, as well as a low volume Tuesday as well.

The week kicked off on a very low volume session on Monday, where uncertainty & hesitance reigned supreme as the day closed in a spinning top candle that featured a lower close than opening price that was unable to break the resistance of the overhead 10 day moving average.

Tuesday also signaled hesitancy, as despite the gap up session that opened above the 10 DMA’s support, the close came in lower than the open, volumes were still relatively low & the candle’s lower shadow came near to testing the support of the 50 DMA.

Wednesday the bearish view was confirmed with a declining session that contained the week’s highest volume levels, as the session opened on the 50 day moving average, tested below it, but ultimately closed above the open.

The day’s range was narrow though & despite the close being higher than the open there was not much bullish activity in the day, as noted by the small upper shadow & the spinning top candle.

Thursday showed a glimmer of bullishness, with a gap higher than tested back down the the day prior’s price range before ultimately advancing & closing above the support of the 10 DMA.

Friday however showed the true feelings of market participants, as the day opened at the 10 DMA, tested just higher, before ultimately testing below the 50 DMA & closing just above its support.

Unlike SPY, QQQ has many more support levels in the near-term from where the price currently sits, as their ascent was not as steep as SPY’s.

Their Average True Range is also still climbing, showing an increase in volatility for QQQ.

Should volatility continue into this week (which it should), all eyes will be watching how the 50 DMA holds up as a support level & if it winds up becoming a resistance level & putting downwards pressure on QQQ’s price.

They look ready to cool down & consolidate for a little while, but when exactly hinges upon the strength of the 50 DMA’s support/resistance.

QQQ has support at the $437.41 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.27:1), $435.11 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.5:1), $433.08 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.5:1) & $429.28/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.07:1) price levels, with resistance at the $438.56 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.27:1), $440.88 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $445.99 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 5:1) & $449.34/share (All Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF declined -2.82% last week, as market participants were eager to flee from small cap names.

Their RSI is trending towards oversold levels & sits currently at 40.67, while their MACD is in bearish decline.

Volumes were+1.07% above average compared to the year prior (34,868,760 vs. 34,500,618), which confirms that market participants had reached a point where they wanted to take some risk off of the table & pocket some of their profits from the past six months.

IWM’s week began in a similar manner as SPY & QQQ’s in terms of a spinning top candle on low volume, followed by another test of the 10 DMA on Tuesday, although IWM closed Tuesday with a dragonfly doji candle, which can often point to an impending reversal.

While Tuesday morning & afternoon found price equilibrium for IWM, it all evaporated on Wednesday, as a wide gap down occurred to put IWM below the resistance of the 50 DMA.

Wednesday echoed the bearish & uncertainty tone as well, as the day was the largest volume session of the week for IWM, they closed in a spinning top that was bearish, and on a high wave candle.

A high wave candle is a candle where the upper & lower shadows are both very long in relation to the (usually) spinning top real body & it indicates a lot of rapid motion & volatility, as well as a bit of uncertainty with the current trend’s direction.

Thursday showed a glimmer of hope for bulls, as the day’s high aligned with Wednesday’s high, while its low point was higher, but the spinning top resting right on the 50 DMA’s support was enough to keep most folks skeptical about the strength of the session (although it did have the second highest volume of the week).

Friday confirmed that the bullish sentiment would be short lived, as the day opened, pushed higher but could not overtake the 50 DMA’s resistance level & as a result sent the price of IWM into freefall during the day, resulting in a -1.78% decline.

Due to the nature of how IWM’s price tends to oscillate vs. the high velocity day-over-day gains of SPY, they do have more local support options nearby, but unlike SPY & QQQ, IWM is already beneath its 10 & 50 DMA’s, meaning that the two price levels are actively pushing down against IWM’s share price & applying pressure to push them lower.

IWM’s Average True Range has perked up, signaling an increase in volatility & should continue higher in the coming week.

IWM has support at the $196.60 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.22:1), $195.89 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.21:1), $189.78 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.5:1) & $189.58/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.5:1) price levels, with resistance at the $198.90 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.18:1), $202.11 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.58:1), $204.07 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.71:1) & $204.25/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.71:1) price levels.

DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF dropped -2.31% last week, as market participants were quick to exit the pool when it came to the big cap & name stocks.

Their RSI is trending towards oversold levels & currently sits at 34.08, while their MACD is heavily bearish.

Volumes were +20.57% above average last week compared to the year prior (4,177,140 vs. 3,646,527), which is troubling given that the three highest volume sessions were all bearish & the lowest volume session was an advancing day, but on heavily muted volume.

Monday kicked the week off with a gravestone doji, which while it was an advancing day was on such low volume that it confirmed that it was going to lead to more bearish sentiment in the week.

Tuesday’s session tested beneath the support of the 50 DMA but managed to close above it in a spinning top candle, indicating indecisiveness.

Wednesday showed a hard gap down on high volume, followed by Thursday temporarily rebounding, but also testing lower & higher than Wednesday & closing below where it opened for the day (bearish).

Friday set the stage for an interesting upcoming week, as in addition to the high volume -1.21% declining day, the 10 DMA bearishly crossed over the 50 DMA & will now be an area of focus for investors & traders as DIA begins to feel bearish pressure from above.

Much like SPY, DIA does not have much in terms of support nearby, with its next nearest level being within 1% of Friday’s closing price & the next level being the 200 DMA, which is currently -5.6% below the closing Friday price.

Their ATR has been rapidly advancing, and likely will continue into this week as more volatility looks set to be on the horizon, which will also be an important area to watch, as there is limited nearby support in the event of volatility ticking higher.

DIA has support at the $378.95 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $358.74 (200 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $351.92 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.87:1) & $347.09/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.06:1) price levels, with resistance at the $387.87 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $388.00 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $388.31 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $398.82/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

The Week Ahead

Monday kicks off early this week, with Dallas Fed President Logan speaking in Tokyo on Monday morning at 2:30 am, followed by the Empire State Manufacturing Survey, U.S. Retail Sales & Retail Sales minus Autos at 8:30 am, Business Inventories & Home Builder Confidence Index data at 10 am & San Francisco Fed President Daly speaking at 8pm.

Charles Schwab, Goldman Sachs & M&T Bank are all scheduled to report earnings before the opening bell on Monday.

Housing Starts & Building Permits data is released Tuesday morning at 8:30 am, followed by Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization data at 9:15 am.

Tuesday earnings season heats up, with United Health, Bank of America, BNY Mellon, Commerce Bancshares, Johnson & Johnson, Morgan Stanley, Northern Trust & PNC all reporting earnings before the opening bell & Fulton Financial, Hancock Whitney, Interactive Brokers, J.B. Hunt Transport, Omnicom & United Airlines reporting earnings after the closing bell.

Wednesday is relatively quiet, with the Fed’s Beige Book data released at 2pm & Cleveland Fed President Mester speaking at 5:30 pm.

Abbott Laboratories, ASML, Citizens Financial Group, First Horizon, Prologis, Travelers Companies & U.S. Bancorp all report earnings before the market opens on Wednesday morning, followed by Alcoa, Bank OZK, Brandywine Realty, Crown Castle, CSX, Discover Financial Services, Equifax, F.N.B. Corp, First Industrial Realty, Kinder Morgan, Las Vegas Sands, Rexford Industrial Realty, SL Green Realty, Synovus & Wintrust Financial after the closing bell.

Initial Jobless Claims & Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey data are released Tuesday at 8:30 am, followed by New York Fed President Williams speaking at 9:15 am, Existing Home Sales & U.S. Leading Economic Indicators data at 10 am, Atlanta Fed President Bostic speaking at 11 am & again at 5:45 pm.

Thursday morning’s earnings reports feature Alaska Air, Ally Financial, Apogee Enterprises, Badger Meter, Blackstone, Comerica, D.R. Horton, Genuine Parts, Home Bancshares, Iridium Communications, KeyCorp, Manpower, Marsh & McLennan, Snap-On & Texas Capital, with Netflix, Glacier Bancorp, PPG Industries & Western Alliance Bancorp all scheduled to report after the closing bell.

Friday ends the week on a quieter note, with Chicago Fed President Goolsbee speaking at 10:30 am.

Proctor & Gamble, American Express, Fifth Third Bancorp, Huntington Bancshares, Regions Financial & SLB are all due to report earnings before the opening bell of Friday’s session.

See you back here next week!

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM or DIA AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF fell -0.89% last week, performing second best behind QQQ for the week as bearish sentiments began to creep into the markets.

Their RSI is currently trending towards overbought after recently bouncing off of the neutral level & sits at 56.38, while their MACD is bearish in the wake of Tuesday’s gap down session.

Volumes were -5.6% below average last week compared to the year prior (73,416,960 vs. 77,775,567), and likely would have been lower had Thursday’s wide-range volatile session not taken place.

Monday kicked the week off with a bearish note, as a bearish engulfing candle resulted from the second-lowest volume session of the week.

While they declined, the price remained firmly above the 10 day moving average’s support (a key area we’ve mentioned over the past few weeks to keep an eye on) & prices were able to close above the lows of the day’s session.

Tuesday the narrative changed dramatically, as a gap down session broke through the 10 DMA‘s support on 18.8% higher volume than the day prior, as market participants began to get worries & looking for the exits.

There was marked indecision as the session resulted in a spinning top candle, but the open-close price action stayed on the higher end of the session’s candle, indicating that there was still some bullish appetite, but that it was becoming markedly more bearish than the last couple of months.

Wednesday confirmed this, as there was a daily advance on the session, but the resistance of the 10 day moving average was unable to be broken & help up, with the real body of the candle forming a tight range with Tuesday’s.

The lack of certainty & confidence in the market was also confirmed, as the session resulted in a spinning top, on the weakest volume of the week (-20.5% volume decline day-over-day), as market participants signaled they clearly were not sure what is coming in the near-term, leading to a chaotic Thursday.

The session opened on a large gap up, clearing the resistance of the 10 day moving average, but signaled that the uncertainty was being replaced by fear as the day declined on a wide range bearish engulfing candlestick that went up to just shy of the all-time high price level, but ultimately was sold off into violently.

The declining volume of Thursday was +64.1% higher than the lowest volume of the week which occurred the day prior & marked a significant shift in investor confidence in the near-term.

While Friday was able to hold on to a +1.04% advance for the day, the theme of the week remained in tact as prices tested higher, broke above the 10 DMA’s resistance briefly, but wound up settling below it & just barely above the 20 day moving average (not pictured in the chart above).

This is going to be an area to keep an eye on heading into this week, as while the price of SPY was able to briefly test over the 10 DMA, the support of the 20 DMA will be tested & if broken all eyes move down ~3% to where the 50 DMA is currently.

While the is one other support level along the way from the current price to the 50 DMA, it’s hard to gauge what its strength will be at these high price levels for SPY & given that it is the point that Thursday’s declining session established when it pivoted off of its daily low it is too soon to tell how strong it will hold up.

If SPY breaks towards the downside, the 10 & 20 DMAs will be applying downwards pressure on their price, which will also result in trouble for their price.

This is especially true given how we’ve been recently consolidating after many months of advancing prices that have left a small number of support levels in its wake.

Another area to keep an eye on now is their Average True Range, a measure of volatility that has advanced to the high level where it has pivoted back from over the past couple of months.

While Monday will be a light day on the news front (which may see an additional advancing pump, else most likely a muted session), the rest of the week may find the ATR continuing higher once we receive the reads on CPI & PPI data.

Due to prices being near all-time highs, much of the data below is currently NULL for the neighboring price levels of SPY’s current price,as volatility amps up & there begin to be more tests of these price levels there will be more complete data, which will be published in the coming week(s).

SPY has support at the $512.76 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $505.84 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $501.94 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $489.20/share (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels, with resistance at the $ 519.79 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $524.61/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price level.

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF that tracks the NASDAQ 100 dipped -0.8% this past week, faring the best of the four major indexes in the wake of a week that featured a lot of bearish sentiment in markets.

Their RSI is currently at 51.3 & is climbing higher, while their MACD is in bearish decline.

Volumes were -4.31% below average last week compared to the year prior (46,956,000 vs. 49,072,125), which is a bit troubling given that three of the sessions were advances & does not inspire much near-term confidence.

Monday started off on an uncertain note, as the session advanced slightly with a doji candle, signaling uncertainty & that in the moment the market participants viewed it as being in equilibrium, but without much conviction given the low volume of the session.

Tuesday confirmed that with a gap down session that broke the 10 DMA’s support & tested lower trying to reach the 50 day moving average, also on low volume, which kept the uncertainty narrative alive & well given it resulted in a spinning top candle.

Wednesday is where things got more interesting, where the session’s candle resulted in a bullish engulfing pattern, however its upper shadow was unable to test the 10 day moving average’s resistance & its day-over-day advance was only +0.11%.

Much like SPY, QQQ had a large bearish engulfing candlestick pattern emerge following the wake of Thursday’s wide-range session.

QQQ declined -1.22% on Thursday on the week’s highest volume, opening above the 10 DMA, before ultimately diving through it & finally settling atop the 50 DMA’s support.

Friday’s session opened just above the 50 DMA, climbed back +1.18% to form a bullish harami pattern, but was unable to press above the 10 DMA & wound up resting right beneath their 20 DMA (not pictured*) on the second highest volume session of the week.

This volume trend is going to result in an interesting week for QQQ, as it is clearly signaling that the price belongs beneath the 10 & 20 DMAs, but that the 50 DMA’s support is still valid & well.

Unless Monday’s session results in a doji where the candle’s real body can still fit between all of these points, there will need to be a breakout one way or another.

While Friday’s candle created a bullish two day pattern, it directly followed a much more violent two day pattern where the majority of the volume went on the declining side.

Pair this with the downwards pressure being applied by the 10 & 20 DMAs while the 50 DMA is currently rising still & looks to be the start of a volatile week for QQQ.

With that said, their Average True Range has been climbing over the past few days & is nearing where it has peaked twice in March, which will be another area to keep an eye on as an indicator of increased volatility.

Their Price Level:Volume Sentiment table below should also be read with a grain of salt as we are currently near all-time highs, meaning that there is limited data on the volumes at these prices currently, leading to the NULL values, as well as some values that are more stretched in one direction than the other due to a low sample size of trades at each price.

The extreme values will be retested & in the process become more diluted upon a correction/shake off in QQQ’s price.

QQQ has support at the $438.56 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.27:1), $435.67 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.5:1), $435.11 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.5:1) & $433.08/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.5:1) price levels, with resistance at the $442.73 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $448.05 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 5:1) & $449.34/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 5:1) price level.

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF declined -2.78% last week, as market participants took profits off of the table following a strong weekly performance for the small cap index during the week prior.

Their RSI is currently neutral at 50.42, as over the past week it reverted back to the mean from approaching overbought territory near the end of March, while their MACD is bearish following the cool-off period that brought their RSI back to neutral.

Volumes were -12.83% lower than average last week compared to the year prior (29,888,040 vs. 34,286,871), with the two highest days coming on declines, followed by the two advancing days & the weakest volume session being Monday’s.

Monday set the stage for the rest of the week’s declines, when a bearish engulfing pattern emerge over the Thursday prior’s doji candle, signaling that market participants were ready for a bit of profit taking & getting out of the pool.

It should be noted that the low volume on this session would normally signal uncertainty & a lack of strong conviction in the move downward, but the rest of the week’s bearish sentiments overcloud that.

Tuesday saw a gap down beneath the support of the 10 day moving average that continued to test lower, as shown by the lower shadow of the candle on the highest volume of the week, adding conviction to Monday’s bearish sentiment.

Wednesday showed my inclination to take risk with a bullish engulfing candle pattern emerging in the wake of the window down, however, the weak volume is not indicative of much strength behind the move, which made the head-fake of Thursday’s gap up open easy to see through.

Thursday gapped up on the open to above the 10 DMA’s resistance, tested slightly higher (upper shadow) before crashing down through the 10 DMA & settling just above the open of Wednesday on the second highest volume of the week.

Friday resulted in a +0.33% advance on similar volume to Wednesday’s, indicating weak demand.

Another bearish implication from Friday is that the session opened lower than Thursday’s close, tested a little lower before powering higher but was unable to come near the 10 DMA.

Atop that, the day’s close is ~50% of the way through the entire day’s price range as you can see in the long upper shadow.

Pair this with the 10 DMA that has already curled over to apply bearish pressure downward on price & the fact that the 50 DMA is still ~1% below the Friday’s closing price & there looks to be bearish expectations for IWM this week.

Like SPY & QQQ, IWM’s moving averages listed above will play a similar role to what has been outlined above, but the volumes in IWM’s case will likely be a more determining factor in terms of how the week performs.

With more support & resistance levels nearby the current price for IWM, the tug of war this week will likely be won based on the volume, particularly given how last week the bearish volume outperformed bullish.

If that makes investors less eager to hop back in the pool then expect to see the week end in declines for IWM.

Their Average True Range is currently declining but is about at the middle range, and will likely begin climbing again as this week does not appear to be a placid one on the horizon.

IWM has support at the $204.25 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.71:1), $201.42 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.58:1), $199.16 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.18:1) & $198.90/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.18:1) price levels, with resistance at the $204.97 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.71:1), $206.26 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.71:1), $209.88 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $211.88/share (52-Week High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price level.

DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF fell -2.24% last week, faring second worse of the four major indexes, only behind IWM, as the largest & small cap names were all viewed unfavorably.

Their RSI is trending back towards neutral & currently sits at 47.41, while their MACD is still bearish following last week’s declines.

Volumes were +21.39% above average last week compared to the year prior (4,171,780 vs. 3,436,708), which is a strong signal of caution given that four of the five sessions resulted in declines.

As noted last week, the evening star pattern was completed with Monday’s declining session, paving the way for the rest of the week’s declines.

Tuesday followed the same gap down story as the other major indexes as market participants were eager to get chips taken off of the table.

Tuesday’s hammer behaved more like a hanging man (hanging man would be the name if it occurred in an uptrend), as DIA continued to sink lower throughout the week, with a long-legged doji on Wednesday & a bearish engulfing candle on Thursday’s wide range declines, which kicked off at the 10 DMA & declined all the way below the support of the 50 DMA.

SPY, QQQ & IWM were not able to break through the 50 DMA to the downside, which given the velocity of how DIA climbed from November until its all-time high in March should have market participants alert & thinking of taking more risk off of the table this week.

Friday saw a high volume bullish session that resulted in a bullish harami pattern where the open was near the close of Thursday but the session closed above the 50 DMA.

While the volume on Friday was almost as high as Thursday’s declining volumes, it’s not a strong sentiment indicator in this instance as the three beginning days of the week had strong bearish volumes.

The 50 DMA & the $387.87 & $385.60/share price levels will be a key area of support to watch this week, particularly as if the 50 DMA’s support is broken there will be downside pressure from both that & the 10 DMA with only one other support level before the 200 DMA, which is currently ~8% below the closing price of Friday’s session.

Their Average True Range is still climbing as volatility has increased in the wake of a relatively smooth four month ascent & will be important to watch when prices break to one side or the other this upcoming week.

DIA has support at the $387.87 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $387.83 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $385.60 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $378.95/share (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels, with resistance at the $392.88 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $398.82/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price level.

The Week Ahead

Monday does not feature any major economic data releases or Fed speakers, nor will any noteworthy earnings reports be released.

NFIB Optimism Index data is released Tuesday at 6 am.

Tuesday morning kicks off with earnings from Cognyte Software, Neogen & Tilray before the opening bell, before PriceSmart, SMART Global & WD-40 report after the session’s close.

Consumer Price Index, Core CPI, CPI Year-over-Year & Core CPI Year-over-Year data are scheduled to be announced on Wednesday morning at 8:30 am, followed by Wholesale Inventories data at 10 am, Boston Fed President Collins speaking at 12 pm & the Minutes of the March FOC Meeting & Monthly U.S. Federal Budget data at 2pm.

Wednesday will feature Delta Airlines’s earnings call.

Thursday morning begins with Initial Jobless Claims, Producer Price Index, Core PPI, PPI Year-over-Year & Core PPI Year-over-Year at 8:30 am, followed by Chicago Fed President Goolsbee speaking at 12:45 pm & Atlanta Fed President Bostic speaking at 1:30 pm.

CarMax, Constellation Brands, Fastenal & Lovesac will all report earnings before the opening bell on Thursday.

The week winds down with Import Price Index & Import Price Index minus Fuel data at 8:30 am on Friday, before Consumer Sentiment (prelim) at 10 am, Atlanta Fed President Bostic speaking at 2:30 pm & San Francisco Fed President Daly speaking at 3:30 pm.

Friday features JP Morgan Chase’s earnings, as well as BlackRock, State Street & Wells Fargo before the opening bell.

See you back here next week!

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM OR DIA AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF remained relatively flat this past week, adding +0.18% week-over-week at Thursday’s close (Friday the market was closed for celebration of Good Friday).

Their RSI has recently flattened out in the wake of the past few days’ consolidation, coupled with the last two days of the week remaining flat, but sits near the bounds of overbought territory at 67.6, while their MACD is bullish, but muted due to the same reasons as the RSI.

Volumes were -5.82% below average last week compared to the year prior (73,299,775 vs. 77,829,780), in a week that was marked by declining volume on narrow range trading sessions.

Monday kicked the week off on very light volume in a declining session, followed by Tuesday where we saw a slight uptick in volume & a wider trading range, as Tuesday’s candle formed a bearish engulfing pattern with Monday’s doji.

However, the doji’s uncertainty ruled the day on Thursday as SPY advanced on what became the second highest volume of the week, but was unable to touch the 52-week & all-time high that was set the previous Thursday.

Thursday’s candle was also a hanging man, as the real body is concentrated in the upper third of the session, while the lower ~60% of the candle is in the lower shadow & it came in the wake of a three day decline.

The lower shadow shows that for the day at least market participants were favoring higher values on SPY, as the open was on the high end of the candle & the close was above the open, despite testing lower during the day.

Friday’s session brought back the theme of uncertainty though, as the highest volume day of the week came off of a -0.02% declining session, where a minor gap up resulted in a gravestone doji for the day, showing outright uncertainty among investors.

For a day with limited price action there was a lot of volume, signaling that a lot of market participants are unsure about the near-term future & wanted to not be holding any risk going into the weekend, after rejecting the higher prices that it moved to throughout the day shown by the upper shadow.

Next week it will be important to keep an ear to what the many Fed speakers that are lined up to speak (detailed in the next section), as that will likely be one of the leading forces at play in determining SPY’s direction next week.

SPY’s 10 DMA will also be an area to keep an eye on, currently ~1% from their closing price on Thursday, as the next nearest level of support is ~4% from Thursday’s close (50 DMA).

Their Average True Range is still declining due to a lack of meaningful volatility (the early week declines were modest) & watching for an uptick in their ATR will be helpful for identifying if there is going to be weakness coming in the near-term.

At such high price levels a sudden uptick in volatility will likely queue some type of at least minor selloff/consolidation move as market participants will be quick to protect profits & take them off of the table.

SPY has support at the $518.71 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $502.11 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $501.94 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $489.20/share (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels, with no one year resistance levels as they closed Thursday at a new all-time high.

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF that tracks the NASDAQ 100 dipped -0.53% last week, as market participants shied away from the technology-heavy index in favor of the other major three.

Their RSI is also relatively flat & sits closer to the neutral level of 50, currently at 56.83, while their MACD is bearish but at a muted level, also due to their recent consolidation.

Volumes were well below average last week compared to the year prior, coming in -28.89% less (35,025,325 vs. 49,253,412), as market participants didn’t know which way was up & displayed clear uncertainty about the near-term future.

Much like SPY, QQQ kicked Monday off with very weak volume on a declining session.

However, Monday’s spinning top signaled uncertainty with optimism, as despite being a declining day the candle is hollow, indicating that the close was higher than the open.

However, based on the size of the upper shadow in relation to the lower shadow it is clear that market participants were not eager to test much higher.

Tuesday saw a bit more volume, an opening gap up to the top of Monday’s range that tested slightly higher (upper shadow), but ultimately was rejected & prices declined to close beneath the open of Monday’s session.

Wednesday got a bit more interesting, as the session resulted in an advance on the highest volume of the week, but the candlestick for the day reflected a heavy dose of bearishness & uncertainty, while validating the strength of the 10 day moving average’s support.

Despite being an advancing session that formed a bullish harami pattern with Tuesday’s candle, it comes in the wake of Tuesday & Monday’s bearish engulfing pattern & neither the open nor the high of the day (which occurred just above the open) were able to break Tuesday’s high & the day’s close was ultimately lower than its open.

While the open-close price concentrated at the upper end of the candle & there were many lower prices beneath it that were rejected & it was the highest volume of the week, the 10 DMA’s support kept the consolidation range in tact, and the week’s only advancing session did not appear to reflect any meaningful strength that bulls are looking for.

Friday confirmed this, with a bearish decline of -0.18% on the second highest volume of the week, where the risk-off into the weekend sentiment was alive & well.

While Friday’s real body opened within Thursday’s body, the close resulted in a move below Thursday’s & the shadows of the doji did not show much of a test to the upside or downside, meaning that market participants viewed the day’s price level as being in equilibrium, even if only temporarily.

As has been the case for much of 2024, QQQ’s 10 DMA will be an area to keep an eye on this week, as the support level was able to hold up on Thursday but has not been as sturdy of support as SPY’s 10 DMA.

Due to the nature of QQQ’s consolidations during its ascent it has more near-by support levels than just the 10 & 50 DMAs, but if the price falls below either (or both) there will begin to be downwards pressure applied to QQQ’s price which will intensify the tests of support.

Their Average True Range has been declining since mid-March, but an uptick in it will likely avalanche into the previously mentioned downside test based on the market sentiment of the past week & Thursday’s close.

QQQ has support at the $442.23 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $438.56 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.27:1), $433.64 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.5:1) & $433.08/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.5:1) price levels, with resistance at the $445.99 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 5:1) & $449.34/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF advanced +2.55% last week, faring the best of the big four indexes in terms of weekly performance, as small cap names were heavily favored.

Their RSI is flattening out after making a run for overbought territory & currently sits at 63.67, while their MACD is bullish, but due to Thursday’s gap up & shooting star candle will be an area to watch in the coming days to see how sustainable the move actually is (currently it looks to be on thin ice).

Volumes were -15.23% lower than their annual average last week (29,055,200 vs. 34,276,900), which can be seen as a sign of bearishness given that three of the four sessions resulted in advancing prices.

Monday kicked off the week with a gravestone doji that kicked off an unconventional week of price movement on low volume, signaling quite a bit of uncertainty.

Tuesday was the week’s only declining session which resulted in a bearish engulfing pattern when combined with Monday’s session, where the day began on a gap up, tested a little bit higher, before being sold off & resulting in a decline for the day.

Wednesday came as a surprise, where higher volumes came into play & a wide-range session resulted in prices advancing after temporarily testing lower, but the session’s high of $209.71 was unable to reach the 52-week high that was established in the first half of March ($209.88).

Thursday wrapped the week up with even more confusion, as the day opened on a gap up, tested higher (reaching a fresh 52-week high), but bulls were not in control & the session resulted in a gravestone doji.

Their 10 day moving average will be an area market participants keep an eye on this coming week, as if its support gives out then there are 2 support touch-points in the $204-204.99/share range before the 50 DMA appears 2% lower than that zone.

Their Average True Range has been declining over the past few sessions & is approaching the level that it has been pivoting off of recently, which may lead to an increase in volatility in the coming week.

IWM has support at the $209.88 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $205.35 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.71:1), $204.97 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.71:1) & $204.25/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.71:1) price levels, with no current one-year resistance levels as they closed after reaching a new a 52-week high on Thursday.

DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF gained +0.82% last week, having the second strongest week of the big four indexes, behind only the small cap index Russell 2000 in weekly performance.

Their RSI has also recently plateaued, and currently sits at 65.7, while their MACD is still bullish.

Volumes were relatively in line with their average for the past year, coming in -0.79% below average for the week (3,378,175 vs. 3,405,069),

The week started off on a quiet, but downward note, as Monday’s session resulted in a gap down on muted volumes (lowest of the week).

Tuesday was also a declining day, but stayed in a similar range to Monday, but more market participants were involved in the session as the volume was higher than Monday’s.

It is worth noting that the 10 day moving average’s support was able to prop up prices for DIA on each of the two declining days.

Wednesday was the highest volume day of the week on a wide-range session that advanced higher, but Thursday’s close appears to have set the stage for an evening star pattern to form pending how DIA fares on Monday.

An evening star pattern is a bearish reversal pattern, which seems likely given the high price level DIA is trading at & all of the bullish volume late in the week before Thursday’s close on a doji that closed lower than it opened, signaling uncertainty, with a hint of bearishness.

In the event of the evening star pattern forming, it will be important to watch how the 10 & 50 DMAs function as support levels, as prices are just off of their 52-week high & there are limited other support levels near them.

Their Average True Range has been declining, but is near a reversal point from the past month, indicating that there may be an uptick in volatility in the coming weeks.

DIA has support at the $393.40 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $387.87 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $386.43 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $378.95/share (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels, with resistance at the $398.82/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price level.

The Week Ahead’s Events

Monday morning the week kicks off with S&P U.S. Manufacturing PMI (final) data at 9:45 am, followed by Construction Spending & ISM Manufacturing data at 10 am.

PVH is scheduled to report earnings after the closing bell on Monday.

Chicago Fed President Goolsbee speaks at 9:05 am on Tuesday, followed by Factory Orders & Job Openings data at 10 am, Cleveland Fed President Mester speaking at 12:05 pm & San Francisco Fed President Daly speaking at 1:30 pm.

Tuesday also has U.S. auto sales at a time that will be announced later.

Dave & Buster’s Entertainment is the headliner earnings report due Tuesday, with Paychex also reporting before the opening bell & Cal-Maine Foods scheduled to report after the session’s close.

ADP Employment data is released Wednesday at 8:15 am, followed by S&P U.S. Services PMI (Final) at 9:45 am, ISM Services data at 10 am & New York Fed President Williams moderating a discussion at 12 pm.

Acuity Brands is scheduled to report earnings before Wednesday’s session, with Levi Strauss, Resources Connection, Simulations Plus & Sportsman’s Warehouse all due to report earnings after the closing bell.

Thursday delivers Initial Jobless Claims & U.S. Trade Balance data at 8:30 am, followed by Philadelphia Fed President Harker speaking at 10 am, Chicago Feed President Gooslbee speaking at 12:45 pm & Cleveland Fed President Mester speaking at 2 pm.

Lamb Weston, Lindsay, Radius Recycling, RPM & Simply Good Foods are all due to report earnings before the opening bell on Thursday.

The week winds down Friday with U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls, U.S. Unemployment Rate, U.S. Hourly Wages & Hourly Wages Year-over-Year data at 8:30 am, followed by Consumer Credit data at 3pm.

Friday does not have any major earnings reports scheduled to be released.

See you back here next week!

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM OR DIA AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***

Following yesterday’s analysis of SPY ETF’s relationship between their Price & 200 Day Moving Average it seemed worthwhile to apply the same methodology to the other three major indexes.

The methodology for obtaining the data for each index is the same as the one outlined in the link above (for those who missed the SPY post), seeking to find how peaks & troughs of the major index ETF’s have been impacted both by time between the two points & distance covered in the declines based on the relationship between the securities’ prices & 200 day moving averages on the day of the peak.

QQQ ETF’s Price:200 Day Moving Average’s Relationship To Peaks & Troughs Over The Past Five Years

Some interesting findings on QQQ from the past five years:

The average approximated distance between the 200 Day Moving Average & price was -11.41% for all dates used, but the average for all differences that were 10%+ between the 200 DMA & price was -16.7%.

The average decline for all peaks & troughs was -15.32%, while the average decline from all peaks & troughs when the price was 10%+ higher than the 200 DMA was slightly better at -14.35%.

The average number of days between all peaks & troughs considered in the table was 42.38, but when the price was 10%+ above the 200 DMA the troughs came in 2 days sooner at 40 days.

QQQ’s most recent peak was at $449.34 while their 200 DMA was $386.63, which was reached on 3/21/24 (same date as SPY) & reflects a -13.96% difference between their price & their 200 day moving average.

Applying the average days between peaks & troughs, that would result in a trough 40-43 days out, which would fall in the range of 4/30/24 to 5/2/24.

IWM ETF’s Price:200 Day Moving Average’s Relationship To Peaks & Troughs Over The Past Five Years

The average approximate distance between IWM’s price & 200 day moving average was -7.59%, but when only looking at days with a 10%+ range between them it becomes -17.97%.

Oddly enough (due to the more oscillating in a range nature we frequently note in our weekly posts compared to SPY & QQQ), the average declines for all dates included in IWM’s data is -16.41% peak-to-trough, while when the difference between price & 200 DMA is 10%+ the decline is reduced to only -9.6% on average.

This relation continues when applied to the number of days between peaks & troughs, with the average for all days being 46.46, while when only counting the days where the price peak occurred while the price was 10%+ different from the 200 DMA the number of days between peak & trough is reduced to only 35.33.

IWM‘s most recent peak was on 3/8/2024 at $209.88/share while their 200 DMA was ~$184.86, reflecting a -11.92% difference between the price & 200 DMA.

Applying the average days between peaks & troughs results in a rather wide date range, where 4/12/24 would be about where a 10%+ spread on price:200 DMA would be the case, to 4/23/24 using the average for all peaks & troughs.

DIA ETF’s Price:200 Day Moving Average’s Relationship To Peaks & Troughs Over The Past Five Years

The average distance between DIA‘s price & 200 DMA is -6.43% for all dates in the table above, but when only averaging dates with a 10%+ spread between the two it becomes -10.83%.

The average decline between all peaks & troughs above is -13.5%, while when the spread between the price & 200 DMA is 10%+ it goes down to only -10.34% on average.

The average number of days between peaks & troughs in the table above is 51.1, but when the spread between the price & 200 DMA is 10%+ it increases by a calendar week to 58.

DIA’s most recent peak was 3/21/24 at $398.82/share, while their 200 DMA was $352.6, which is a spread of -11.59% between the two.

Applying the average number of days between all peaks & troughs results in 5/11/24, while using only the dates with the 10%+ spread between price & 200 DMA results in an estimated average date of 58.

While this is not an exact science & is relying on averages across time periods that were all very different, it is certainly food for thought & something interesting to keep an eye on over the next couple of months.

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACTS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM OR DIA AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE – THIS IS NOT INVESTING ADVICE, JUST SOMETHING INTERESTING TO LOOK AT WHILE DOING YOUR OWN DUE DILIGENCE – ALL DATA WAS GATHERED VIA STOCKCHARTS.COM ***

This morning while looking at charts I took a look into the relationship between the price level of SPY at various peaks over the past 5 years in relation to where the 200 day moving average was (approximated via the “inspect chart” for each date) at the time.

After calculating the percent change from price to 200 DMA the next closest major trough was added in with the total percent decline between the peak & trough prices & then counted the total days that were between the two dates (with the option of “Include End Date” selected from the date counter).

Some of the interesting findings:

The average approximated distance between the 200 Day Moving Average & the price was -8 .24% for all dates used, but the average for all differences that were 10%+ was -12.84% between the price & the 200 DMA.

The average decline for all peaks & troughs was -14.93%, while the average decline for all peaks & troughs when the price was 10%+ above the 200 DMA was -18.79%.

The average number of days between all peaks & troughs was 47.33, while the average number of days between all peaks & troughs for dates when the 200 DMA was -10%+ below the current SPY share price was 49.67.

SPY’s most recent peak price was $524.11 while their 200 DMA was ~$453.63, which was reached on 3/21/2024 & reflects a ~-13.45% difference between the price & the 200 day moving average.

Applying the average days between peaks & troughs, that would result in the next trough being 5/7/24 (5/8/24 technically, as the 7th is a Sunday), or 5/9-5/10.

While this is not an exact science & is relying on averages across time periods that were all very different, it is certainly food for thought & something interesting to keep an eye on over the next month & a half.

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE – ALL DATA WAS GATHERED VIA STOCKCHARTS.COM ***

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF gained +2.23% last week, faring second best of the major four indexes in a week that was bullish across the board.

Their RSI is trending back from near-overbought conditions & is currently at 67.93, while their MACD is currently bullish, but looking to be losing steam & setting up for a bearish crossover in the coming sessions.

Volumes were -11.69% below average last week compared to the year prior (69,050,161 vs. 78,190,894), with Monday’s advancing session being the strongest volume day, while Friday’s declines into the weekend came in a close second highest for the week.

Monday kicked the week off on an uncertain note, with a spinning top candle that stayed above the 10 day moving average‘s support, however it closed lower than it opened, indicating that there was some risk-aversion.

However, Tuesday’s bullish engulfing candle showed that the bulls were back in the marketplace running up to Wednesday’s FOMC announcement.

Tuesday’s candle tested lower & temporarily dipped its lower shadow below the 10 DMA, but was able to close higher.

Wednesday saw a bullish advancing session on the heels of the interest rate announcement, where Chair Powell hinted that there is still a possibility of three rate cuts in 2024 (although he did not explicitly say it), which got market participants excited.

Thursday started off with a gap up & tested higher, setting a new all-time high for SPY, but began to signal trouble for the week’s rally, as the session closed lower than it opened, resulting in a filled candle.

This set the stage for Friday’s risk-off declines going into the weekend, which also indicated further uncertainty as the day resulted in a narrow-range spinning top candle on a -0.19% decline for the day.

The high volume level of Friday’s session compared to the other sessions of the week will be something to keep an eye on going into this week, where we will see if it was just a one-day risk off/profit taking event, or if the losses will spark a wave of near-term declines.

As has been mentioned in previous weeks’ posts, the 10 DMA will be an area to watch closely, where it is currently ~-1.2% below Friday’s closing price acting as the first line of support.

It will also be important to keep an eye on the 50 day moving average as well, which is currently the third support touch-point, but advancing higher daily & currently sits ~-3% below the 10 DMA.

As the two moving averages draw nearer to one another we will either be seeing a consolidation of sorts, or else declines that will cause them to act as resistance levels applying downward pressure on the price of SPY.

Their Average True Range has been trending downward the past few days due to the week’s lack of volatility, but it is likely to begin perking up this week.

SPY has support at the $515.49 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $501.94 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $498.30 (50 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $489.20/share (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), with resistance at the $524.11/share (All-Time High; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price level.

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF advanced +3.01% last week, as market participants rushed into the tech-heavy index after hearing that there may still possibly be three FOMC interest rate cuts lined up for the remainder of this year.

Their RSI is currently 60.47, but is beginning to show signs of rolling over bearishly in the near-term, while their MACD is currently bullish, but relatively muted & hugging the signal line tight, indicating a lack of bullish strength & a likely bearish crossover around the near-term corner.

Volumes were very low last week at -19.01% below average compared to the year prior (40,263,908 vs. 49,715,249), which is problematic due to the fact that last week was five advancing sessions for QQQ.

The lack of volume shows significant weariness about QQQ being at these high price levels, as it recently reached a new all-time high on Thursday following the FOMC announcement & press conference (like SPY).

Another troubling trend with last week’s volume is that it was highest at the beginning of the week & began to decline as the week wore on, until Friday’s lowest volume session of the week.

Monday saw the highest volume on a session marked with uncertainty, as the day opened above the support of the 10 day moving average, tested higher, and ultimately settled lower than the day’s opening price, but above the closing price of Friday & beneath the resistance of the 10 DMA.

Tuesday opened even lower beneath the 10 day moving average’s resistance, tested lower (lower shadow on day’s candle), before closing higher, closely aligned with the 10 DMA.

Wednesday began on a cautious note as QQQ opened in line with the 10 DMA’s support, tested beneath it, before ultimately rallying into the close following the FOMC rate decision.

Thursday is where the weakness began to be exposed however, as the session gapped higher, tested slightly higher than the open, before resulting in a filled candle due to the day’s close being lower than the open.

It is also worth noting that Thursday’s volume was lower than the tight volume range the first three days of the week shared.

Friday continued the theme of uncertainty & fear beginning to creep into the NASDAQ, as the session closed with very low volume on a spinning top candle, but up +0.11% on the day.

Due to the consolidation range of the previous two weeks & Thursday’s gap up QQQ is a bit better positioned away from its 10 & 50 day moving average’s support levels (~-1.3% from Friday’s close for the 10 DMA; ~-3.5% for the 50 DMA) & it has more near-term support levels that may ease any declines in the near-future.

This week will require a close eye on volumes to see if profits are taken from last week’s 5 straight advancing sessions, as well as a look at the relationship between price level:10 DMA, price level:50 DMA & 10:50 DMA relationships to see what sort of near-term support/resistance levels influence the broader direction of QQQ & the NASDAQ 100.

Their Average True Range has been declining recently, as the past week featured very little volatility, and any uptick in that will be important to keep an eye on in the event that it spurs a correction in pricing.

QQQ has support at the $445.99 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 5:1), $440.35 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $438.56 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.27:1) & $433.08/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.5:1), with resistance at the $449.34/share (All-Time High; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price level.

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF added +1.57% last week, as investors were not as eager to dive into small cap names as they had been in weeks prior.

Their RSI is trending back towards the neutral level & currently sits at 55.30, while their MACD is still bearish & approaching the signal line weakly, looking as though it won’t have the strength to cross over bullishly this week & will continue on bearishly.

Volumes were +5.85% above average last week compared to the year prior (36,542,969 vs. 34,524,424), most attributed to Wednesday & Thursday’s advancing session volume after the FOMC interest rate decision announcement, which does not necessarily indicate that there is much strong sentiment in IWM currently.

Monday kicked the week off on a downhill note, with a declining session on relatively muted volume indicating that there was not much in terms of interest & bullish sentiment among market participants.

Tuesday signaled a glimmer of hope, but still no rush by the bulls as the session advanced, but on volumes that were near as weak as Monday’s, as investors were still skeptical of the IWM with the FOMC interest rate decision looming.

Wednesday opened below Tuesday’s close, tested a bit lower, before rallying on the announcement from the Fed & Chair Powell’s press conference, busting through the resistance of the 10 day moving average, testing higher, but ultimately settling below the day’s highs, leading to the upper shadow on the session’s candle.

This sentiment carried into Thursday, where the session gapped up, but ultimately sent warning signs for IWM, as the day’s candle resulted in a shooting star (near-term bearish implications) on volumes that were just below the levels seen the day before in the wide-range session rally of Wednesday.

Friday ended the week on a risk-off/profit taking note, but the wide range of the day’s candle & limited upper shadow with no lower shadow has further near-term bearish implication for IWM.

Much like SPY & QQQ, IWM’s fate this week will be heavily dependent on how their moving averages hold up as support, with the price in close proximity to the 10 DMA & the 50 DMA trailing just behind it.

The closer that the two moving averages get, the more likely it is that we will be a cool down period & should their support be broken it will be important to watch how the downwards pressure that their resistance causes impacts IWM’s price performance.

IWM has a decent amount of nearby support levels that can help slow down any declines in the near-term, but caution should be taken this week, particularly with how jumpy prices have been over the past few weeks.

Their Average True Range has flattened out after being in an uptrend in the wake of the previous week’s volatility, but should the 10 DMA’s support break down expect to see it increase & there to be a jump in volatility for IWM.

IWM has support at the $204.97 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.71:1), $204.25 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.71:1), $203.86 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.58:1) & $199.16/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.18:1), with resistance at the $209.88/share (52-Week High; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price level.

DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF climbed +1.95% last week, with the bulk of the advances thanks to Wednesday & Thursday’s sessions.

Their RSI is currently 62.23 as it comes down from overbought conditions & their MACD is currently bullish, but beginning to show signs of curling over towards the signal line which would result in a bearish crossover in the near-term.

Volumes were +3.56% above average last week compared to the year prior (3,537,777 vs. 3,416,152), which is interesting given that aside from Wednesday & Thursday the rest of the week contained relatively low volume, signaling that market participants are beginning to become exhausted & losing interest in adding risk to DIA.

Monday kicked the week off on very muted volume & a rather uncertain note, as the day opened above the 10 day moving average’s support, tested a bit higher, before ultimately closing lower than its open & beneath the resistance of the 10 DMA.

Tuesday opened about where Monday left off, tested a bit lower (lower shadow), before surging beyond the 10 DMA, but volumes were still not indicative of much strength behind the move in price.

Wednesday opened above the 10 DMA, tested lower but the support level was able to hold up & ultimately power prices higher once the FOMC announcement took place.

An observation about Wednesday’s session for DIA: there was a very small upper shadow, signaling that there was not much appetite for risk much higher than the day’s close.

Still, Thursday saw a gap higher, which will it did test a bit lower than where it opened, went on to result in a new all-time high being reached.

Wednesday had the highest volume of the week, with Thursday’s session following closely behind it leading into Friday’s risk-off/profit taking session that filled most of the window created by Thursday’s gap up.

Friday’s volumes imply that there is still more risk-off sentiment in the market, which will be something for market participants to keep an eye on in the coming week.

They also will want to be mindful of the 10 & 50 day moving averages, which are currently drawing nearer to both one another & the current price level.

DIA has limited near-term support levels due to the nature of the slow/steady gains that they have made in 2024, as well as their consolidation periods that have marked the better parts of February & March of 2024 following their aggressive ascent that took place between late October & mid-December of 2023.

Their Average True Range has ticked up following the latter half of last week as volatility has expanded since the aforementioned consolidation range(s).

Expect to see a continued uptick in DIA ATR, as volatility looks to be increasing in the near-term.

DIA has support at the $390.97 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $387.87 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $384.66 (50 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $378.95/share (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), with resistance at the $398.82/share (All-Time High; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price level.

The Week Ahead

Monday kicks the week off with New Home Sales data at 10 am.

There are no earnings reports of importance being released on Monday.

Durable-Goods Orders & Durable-Goods minus Transportation data is released Tuesday at 8:30 am, followed by S&P Case-Schiller Home Price Index (20 Cities) data at 9 am & Consumer Confidence data at 10 am.

Tuesday morning before the bell’s earnings calls include GDS Holdings, McCormick, & TD Synnex, with Concentrix, GameStop, nCino & Progress Software all scheduled to report earnings after the day’s closing bell.

There are no major economic data announcements scheduled for Wednesday.

Wednesday morning before the bell’s earnings reports include Cintas, Paychex & UniFirst, with Braze, H.B. Fuller, Jefferies, MillerKnoll, Sprinklr & Verint Systems scheduled to report earnings after the closing bell.

Thursday brings us Initial Jobless Claims & GDP (2nd Revision) data at 8:30 am, Chicago Business Barometer (PMI) data at 9:45 am & Pending Home Sales & Consumer Sentiment (Final) data at 10 am.

Walgreens & BRP are scheduled to report earnings before the opening bell on Thursday, followed by Oxford Industries, Semtech, Sharecare, Torrid & Vuzix reporting after the day’s closing bell.

The week winds down Friday with Advanced U.S. Trade Balance in goods, Advanced Retail Inventories, Personal Income (Nominal), Personal Spending (Nominal), PCE Index, Core PCE Index, Core PCE Index, PCE (Year-over-Year) & Core PCE (Year-over-Year) data at 8:30 am.

Friday will not have any earnings reports due to the market being closed for Good Friday.

See you back here next week!

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM OR DIA AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***