Category: Market News, Research & Commentary

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF gained +3.6% last week, while the VIX closed at 19.23, indicating an implied one day move range of +/-1.21% & an implied one month move range of +/-5.56%.

Their RSI istrending towards overbought conditions, currently at 63.83, while their MACD is extended higher bullishly.

Volumes were -22.2% lower than the prior year’s average (60,416,000 vs. 77,471,640), which casts doubts upon the strength of the mid-to-late week gap & rally that we saw, as even with Wednesday’s high volume the rest of the week was muted.

Monday the week opened up for SPY on a light volume slight gap higher open that tested & temporarily broke through the 200 day moving average’s resistance, but was unable to remain above it into the close, adding +0.47% on the day.

Tuesday opened lower, tested down to the support of the 10 day moving average, but it held up & pushed SPY higher on the day on the second highest volume of the week, but the resistance of the 200 DMA held up heading into the close.

Wednesday things really heated up, as exuberance surrounding the war in Iran forced a gap up open +2.6% above the resistance of the 50 DMA on the week’s highest volume, but there was something amiss.

While SPY did gain a little bit after the open, it also sunk throughout the session to form a hanging man candle & it closed lower than it opened; both of which are not bullish & express skittishness & speculative behavior.

Thursday’s open reflected this, as SPY opened lower, but the support of the 50 day moving average held strong & pumped SPY higher, albeit on mediocre volume, which proved to be a subpar follow up after such a grand gap up session the previous day.

Friday opened higher, but the second lowest volume session of the week sunk throughout the session as profits were taken off of the table & risk was reassessed heading into the weekend.

Heading into the new week, SPY’s upside case relies on an increase in advancing volume to push forward prices following Wednesday’s big gap session.

There will likely need to be some major developments on the war-front, as January’s all-time high that is <2% higher has remained in-tact & not much has changed for the better since, making it seem unlikely that we will see a new ATH this week, particularly given where SPY’s RSI sits.

The consolidation case focuses on the support of the 50 DMA holding up, whereby SPY will oscillate range bound around it as we await an upside/downside catalyst & the 10 DMA catches up to price.

To the downside, the 50 DMA’s support will be a critical level if retested, as if the medium-term trendline is unable to keep price propped up the $665-659.99/share price level is Seller oriented historically, which would then push price down towards the 10 DMA’s support which is rapidly approaching from below.

It will be interesting to see where these averages are when SPY begins filling in Wednesday’s window, particularly given earnings calls may be the catalyst.

SPY has support at the $673.95 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.39:1), $672.87 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.39:1), $670.13 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.39:1) & $663.30/share (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.92:1) price levels, and resistance at the $681.08 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.74:1), $685.79 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.17:1), $695.24 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $695.94/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF advanced +4.46% for the week, as the tech-heavy index had the strongest week of the four majors.

Their RSI is trending towards overbought conditions, currently at 63.52, while their MACD is bullishly extended.

Volumes were -18.52% lower than the prior year’s average (44,006,000 vs. 54,006,560), which like SPY’s is questionable given the magnitude of Wednesday’s gap up move.

Monday QQQ opened on a gap up, tested lower, before running higher on the week’s lowest volume.

Tuesday opened lower, tested down to the support of the 10 day moving average, to run higher and close the day as an advancing session on the week’s second highest volume.

Wednesday opened on a +3.42% gap higher, the major contributing factor for QQQ’s weekly outperformance, but like SPY sunk throughout the session to test the support of the 50 day moving average before closing lower than it opened on the week’s highest volume.

Thursday opened lower, tested lower, before rallying higher to close on a daily advance just above Wednesday’s open.

Friday opened on a gap higher, but a sense of foreboding crept into the air as after a brief test higher investors went risk-off temporarily breaking below the $610/share level & closing as a spinning top that favored the lower end of the day’s range.

Heading into the new week, the upside case sees the $627.61/share as the gatekeeper to QQQ all-time high, and crossing it to make a realistic sustainable run at the ATH will require an increase in advancing volume.

The consolidation case will likely see oscillations around the 10 & 50 day moving averages (maybe even 200 DMA depending on how long it lasts for) as we await an upside or downside catalyst (likely the war in Iran or earnings).

To the downside the moving averages mentioned above will play a critical role in providing support to stop any declines.

The trouble here is that those retests will likely prove daunting as they are all in Seller zones & Seller zones can see price walked down to $579.99/share before we enter another Buyer zone, which will be important to watch for as the window from last week begins to fill to the downside.

QQQ has support at the $599.87 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2.28:1), $598.75 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2.28:1), $597.15 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2.28:1) & $595.71/share (200 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2.28:1) price levels, and resistance at the $611.62 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.13:1), $616.74 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.25:1), $623.27 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.19:1) & $627.61/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.08:1) price levels.

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF climbed +3.98% for the week, as the small cap index was the second favorite of the major four indexes.

Their RSI is trending towards overbought conditions at currently is at 64.35, while their MACD is extended bullishly.

Volumes were -20.28% lower than the prior year’s average (30,568,000 vs. 38,345,520), which casts doubts upon the strength of Wednesday’s gap up session.

Monday opened the week on a higher note, but on low volume.

Tuesday opened lower, tested down to the 10 DMA’s support before trending higher to close the day positive.

Wednesday opened on a gap up above the 50 day moving average, but like SPY & QQQ, IWM sunk throughout the session, with a long lower shadow as profits were taken from the early morning gap up open.

Thursday opened lower, but promptly ran higher to close just below Wednesday’s open, which also casts doubt upon the strength of the gap up.

Friday opened on a gap higher, but promptly sunk lower as risk was taken off heading into the weekend & profits for the week were collected.

For IWM the upside case this week involves breaking above the $268.48/share gatekeeper level to make a run for their all-time high.

This will require an increase in advancing volume that is sustainable if there is to be a meaningful breakout.

The consolidation case see IWM beginning to fill in Wednesday’s window & then oscillate around the 10 DMA inside the window as we await an upside or downside catalyst.

To the downside there is a Seller zone that begins at $259.99-256 which leads to a retest of the support of the 50 DMA, should that break down the $251.48/sharelevel will be an area of interest to keep an eye on, as it is the gatekeeper to the $240’s & the low $250’s support levels that are above $252 are in a Seller zone.

IWM has support at the $256.88 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.88:1), $256.13 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.88:1), $254.60 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.03:1) & $254.25/share (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.03:1) price levels, and resistance at the $268.48 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.4:0*) & $271.11/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.4:0*) price levels.

DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF added +3.05% for the week, as the blue chip index was the least favored of the majors.

Their RSI is trending towards overbought at 60.51, while their MACD is heavily extended bullishly.

Volumes were -30.2% lower than the prior year’s average (3,684,000 vs. 5,278,120), which either reflects a wait & see approach for the blue chip stocks, or is a sign that we may see investors begin jumping out of the pool.

Monday saw DIA open higher, test below the 200 DMA briefly, before rising to close above it.

Tuesday opened lower, broke below the 200 DMA, but managed to rise up to close as a dragonfly doji, a sign of optimism paired with caution.

Wednesday opened on a gap higher to be in-line with the 50 DMA, but it did test lower and ultimately close as a dragonfly doji candle.

Thursday opened lower, tested slightly lower, before breaking out above the 50 DMA’s resistance to close above it.

Friday managed a higher open, but risk was taken from the table & investors forced DIA’s price down to rest just atop the support of the 50 DMA.

This week’s upside case relies on more advancing volume among the “buy & hold” blue chip crowd, with $483.27 being the gatekeeper to break above if there is to be a run at their all-time high.

The consolidation case focuses on oscillations around the 50 DMA as we await the 10 DMA to catch up to price & or an upside/downside catalyst.

To the downside, if the window from Wednesday begins to fill it will come down to the 200 DMA’s support, especially given that there is Seller & Even Buyer:Seller pressure within the window itself.

DIA has support at the $479.09 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.33:1), $476.95 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.33:1), $470.09 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Even, 1:1*) & $467.24/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.2:1) price levels, and resistance at the $480.92 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.6:1), $483.27 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.6:1) & $503.59/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.9:0*) price levels.

The Week Ahead

Monday the week begins with Existing Home Sales data at 10 am, before Fed Governor Miran speaks at 6:20 pm.

Goldman Sachs & Fastenal report earnings Monday morning before the opening bell, with FB Financial reporting after the session’s close.

NFIB Optimism Index data comes out at 6 am on Tuesday, followed by Producer Price Index, Core PPI, PPI Year-over-Year & Core PPI Year-over-Year at 8:30 am, Fed Presidents Collins, Barkin & Paulson speak on a panel about the rural economy at 1 pm & Fed Governor Barr speaks at 5:50 pm.

Tuesday morning’s earnings reports begin with news from Albertsons, BlackRock, CarMax, Citigroup, Johnson & Johnson, JP Morgan Chase & Wells Fargo.

Wednesday brings us Import Price Index, Import Price Index minus Fuel, Empire State Manufacturing Survey data & Fed Governor Barr speaking at 8:30 am, before Home Builder Confidence Index data at 10 am, Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman speaks at 1:45 pm & Fed Beige Book data comes out at 2 pm.

Wednesday morning’s earnings include ASML, Bank of America, First Horizon, M&T Bank, Morgan Stanley, PNC & Progressive,with Home Bancshares, J.B. Hunt Transport & SL Green Realty after the closing bell.

Initial Jobless Claims & Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey data come out Thursday at 8:30 am, followed by Fed President Williams speaking at 8:35 am, Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization data come out at 9:15 am and Fed Governor Miran speaks at 10:35 am.

Thursday morning’s earnings calls feature PepsiCo, Abbott Laboratories, BNY Mellon, Charles Schwab, Citizens Financial Group, Insteel Industries, KeyCorp, Manpower, Marsh McLennan, Prologis, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, Travelers, U.S. Bancorp & Wealthfront, with Netflix, Alcoa, Cohen & Steers & Simmons First National reporting in the evening.

Friday the week winds down with Fed President Daly speaking at 11:30 am, Fed President Barkin speaking at 12:15 pm & Fed Governor Waller speaking at 2 pm.

Ally Financial, Autoliv, Badger Meter, Fifth Third, Regions Financial, State Street & Truist all report earnings before Friday’s session’s open.

See you back here next week!

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM OR DIA AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***

Quite a lot has taken place since our last check-in on Volume Sentiment Analysis in January, between international relations, wars & Federal Reserve policy & shakeups there’s been an escalation in volatility.

MACDs have been bearish & Average True Ranges rising for the major indexes for much of 2026, with seemingly limited upside catalysts coming anytime soon.

In such situations it is imperative to understand market participants behavior when assessing the strength/resistance of support/resistance levels whether you’re day-trading in short time intervals, swing trading, or just a buy & hold investor who’s looking for places to put their stop orders in.

What’s become more interesting is that the two pairs of SPY & QQQ and IWM & DIA which tend to move similar to one another are all now showing similar behavior, indicating that there is some fear out there.

The data from this post is based on Friday 3/20/2026’s close, where the VIX closed at 26.78, indicating an implied one day move of +/-1.69% & an implied one month move of +/-7.74%.

Given that SPY was already ~6.8% below the January all-time high & the sparse support levels gatekeeping the unfilled gaps of May & June of 2025 it is a solid time to check in on volume sentiment at each price level the four major indexes have traded at historically.

Each section below contains a view of each index ETF’s chart (for a technical breakdown of each’s chart, see last week’s market review note, this week’s will be published tomorrow), as well as a list of their current one year support & resistance levels with the volume sentiment noted beneath it on the table.

There is an additional table beneath this table with each price level’s sentiment, as well as a typed text version below that is able to be copied & pasted.

Note that “NULL, 0:0*” values denote areas that each name has traded at (or gapped through, in some instances) but with limited volume data to work with from a comparison standpoint in terms of creating a ratio of buyers:sellers (or vice versa) or is the outlier above the highest/lowest level with price data.

Also, prices that do have a ratio of Buyers:Sellers (Sellers:Buyers) where the denominator is 0 are denoted with an asterisk “*”.

In the written lists of the price levels & volume sentiments the price levels that contain support & resistance levels are marked in BOLD.

Recall that at price extremes such as the highs that we have recently hit there will tend to be skewed data due to the small sample size & factor that into how you interpret each price level’s reported sentiment.

This is intended to serve as an additional tool, similar to a barometer to use during your due diligence process & is not meant to replace doing your own research & is not financial advice.    

Price Level:Volume Sentiment Analysis For SPY, The SPDR S&P 500 ETF

SPY, the SDR S&P 500 ETF‘s Bollinger bands expanded as predicted in the January 6th note on Volume Sentiment, welcoming in the beginning of months of volatility, which only looks to increase.

In addition to the factors mentioned above, there is also delayed data from government shutdown periods impacting the upcoming performance for SPY.

This makes the tables below well worth reviewing, as the top one highlights the volume sentiment at one year support/resistance levels using the past ~1-2 years worth of data for each price level.

The tables below show the full on data for each price level, and beneath that is a copy & pastable list to aid in your due diligence.

This is a barometer to aid in research & due diligence and is not financial advice.

$700 – NULL – 0:0*, +7.93% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$695 – NULL – 0:0*, +7.16% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$690 – Buyers – 1.16:1, +6.39% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$685 – Buyers – 1.17:1, +5.62% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$680 – Buyers – 2.74:1, +4.85% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price – 50 Day Moving Average*

$675 – Sellers – 1.45:1, +4.08% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$670 – Buyers – 1.39:1, +3.3% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$665 – Sellers – 1.63:1, +2.53% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price – 10 Day Moving Average*

$660 – Buyers – 1.92:1, +1.76% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$655 – Buyers – 1.53:1, +0.99% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price – 200 Day Moving Average*

$650 – Sellers – 3.75:1, +0.22% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$645 – Sellers – 3.63:1, -0.55% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price – Current Price Level*

$640 – Buyers – 4.14:1, -1.32% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$635 – Buyers – 1.61:1, -2.09% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$630 – Sellers – 3.17:1, -2.86% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$625 – Sellers – 1.11:1, -3.63% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$620 – Buyers – 2.64:1, -4.41% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$615 – Sellers – 1.46:1, -5.18% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$610 – Buyers – 1.67:1, -5.95% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$605 – Buyers – 1.6:0*, -6.72% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$600 – Buyers – 5.2:1, -7.49% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$595 – Buyers – 13.4:1, -8.26% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$590 – Sellers – 2.08:1, -9.03% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$585 – Buyers – 1.34:1, -9.8% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$580 – Buyers – 2.64:1, -10.57% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$575 – Sellers – 2.83:1, -11.34% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$570 – Buyers – 1.71:1, -12.11% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$565 – Sellers – 1.03:1, -12.89% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$560 – Buyers – 1.38:1, -13.66% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$555 – Buyers – 1.07:1, -14.43% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$550 – Buyers – 3.42:1, -15.2% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$545 – Buyers – 1.15:1, -15.97% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$540 – Buyers – 2.85:1, -16.74% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$535 – Buyers – 1.67:1, -17.51% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$530 – Sellers – 1.5:1, -18.28% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$525 – Buyers – 2.67:1, -19.05% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$520 – Buyers -2.13:1, -19.82% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$515 – Buyers – 1.25:1, -20.59% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$510 – Buyers – 1.69:1, -21.37% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$505 – Buyers – 1.27:1, -22.14% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$500 – Sellers – 1.14:1, -22.91% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$496 – Sellers – 2.89:1, -23.52% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$492 – Sellers – 1.08:1, -24.14% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$488 – Sellers – 5.2:0*, -24.76% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$484 – Buyers – 1.33:1, -25.37% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$480 – Sellers – 1:0*, -25.99% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$476 – NULL – 0:0*, -26.61% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$472 – NULL – 0:0*, -27.22% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

Price Level:Volume Sentiment Analysis For QQQ, The Invesco QQQ Trust ETF

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF has also shown an uptick in volatility in 2026, as it seems that folks have begun to realize that the AI/tech trades have gotten ahead of themselves.

While they’ve moved similarly to SPY over the past few years, it is worth examining them more closely on their own in the coming volatile environment.

Referencing the tables below can be of value both for QQQ & for understanding how their major components may move in the future when comparing the two.

The$570-574.99/share level is the primary anchor point in terms of Buyer strength, but that also may become heavily diluted given it is currently leaning 13:1 in terms of Buyers:Sellers, which will be important to watch.

$640 – NULL – 0:0*, +9.95% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$635 – NULL – 0:0*, +9.1% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$630 – Buyers – 3.6:0*, +8.24% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$625 – Buyers – 2.08:1, +7.38% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$620 – Buyers – 1.19:1, +6.52% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$615 – Buyers – 1.25:1, +5.66% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$610 – Buyers – 1.13:1, +4.8% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price – 50 Day Moving Average*

$605 – Buyers – 1.18:1, +3.94% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$600 – Sellers – 1.24:1, +3.08% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$595 – Sellers – 2.28:1, +2.22% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price – 10 Day Moving Average*

$590 – Sellers – 1.2:1, +1.36% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price – 200 Day Moving Average*

$585 – Sellers – 1.27:1, 0.51% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$580 – Sellers – 2.14:1, -0.35% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price, Current Price Level*

$575 – Buyers – 2.24:1, -1.21% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$570 – Buyers – 13:1, -2.07% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$565 – Buyers – 1.11:1, -2.93% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$560 – Sellers – 1.06:1, -3.79% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$555 – Sellers – 1.36:1, -4.65% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$550 – Buyers – 1.04:1, -5.51% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$545 – Buyers – 2:1, -6.37% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$540 – Buyers – 0.7:0*, -7.23% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$535 – Buyers – 2.1:0*, -8.09% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$530 – Buyers – 2.25:1, -8.94% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$525 – Buyers – 1.5:1, -9.8% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$520 – Buyers – 1.14:1, -10.66% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$515 – Buyers – 1.86:1, -11.52% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$510 – Sellers – 1.3:1, -12.38% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$505 – Sellers – 1.14:1, -13.24% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$500 – Sellers – 1.5:0*, -14.1% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$496 – Buyers – 1.17:1, -14.79% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$492 – Sellers – 1.6:0*, -15.47% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$488 – Buyers – 1.7:0*, -16.16% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$484 – Sellers – 1.46:1, -16.85% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$480 – Buyers – 2.4:1, -17.53% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$476 – Buyers – 1.71:1, -18.22% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$472 – Buyers – 1.64:1, -18.91% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$468 – Sellers – 2:1, -19.6% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$464 – Buyers – 1.35:1, -20.28% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$460 – NULL – 0:0*, -20.97% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$456 – Buyer s- 0.6:0*, -21.66% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$452 – Buyers – 2.1:0*, -22.34% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$448 – Sellers – 1:0*, -23.03% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$444 – Sellers – 1.6:0*, -23.72% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$440 – Sellers – 1.5:1, -24.41% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$436 – NULL – 0:0*, -25.09% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$432 – NULL – 0:0*, -25.78% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$428 – Sellers – 0.7:0*, -26.47% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$424 – NULL – 0:0*, -27.16% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$420 – Buyers – 1.44:1, -27.84% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$416 – NULL – 0:0*, -28.53% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$412 – Sellers – 1.5:0*, -29.22% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$408 – NULL – 0:0*, -29.9% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

Price Level:Volume Sentiment Analysis For IWM, The iShares Russell 2000 ETF

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF‘s Bollinger Bands are contracting cururrently, but look set to expand within a week, which indicates heightened volatility.

While the small cap index is likely to follow the lead of its larger peers in terms of macro sentiment, it is still worth having an understanding of where it may catch support/break resistance based on the difference of speculation between the market cap sizes, shown below.

$272 – NULL – 0:0*, +12.29% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$268 – Buyers – 0.4:0*, +10.64% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$264 – Buyers – 3.39:1, +8.99% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$260 – Buyers – 1.59:1, +7.34% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$256 – Sellers – 1.86:1, +5.69% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price -50 Day Moving Average*

$252 – Buyers – 1.04:1, +4.04% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$248 – Buyers – 1.86:1, +2.39% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price – 10 Day Moving Average*

$244 – Sellers – 1.27:1, +0.73% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$240 – Buyers – 1.11:1, -0.92% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price – Current Price Level & 200 Day Moving Average**

$236 – Buyers – 1.23:1, -2.57% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$232 – Buyers – 1.47:1, -4.22% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$228 – Sellers – 2.23:1, -5.87% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$224 – Buyers – 1.41:1, -7.52% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$220 – Buyers – 1.23:1, -9.17% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$216 – Buyers – 1.16:1, -10.82% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$212 – Sellers – 1.11:1, -12.48% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$208 – Buyers – 1.36:1, -14.13% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$204 – Buyers – 1.76:1, -15.78% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$200 – Buyers – 1.04:1, -17.43% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$198 – Buyers – 1.12:1, -18.26% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$196 – Sellers – 1.28:1, -19.08% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$194 – Buyers – 1.76:1, -19.91% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$192 – Buyers – 1.56:1, -20.73% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$190 – Buyers – 1.21:1, -21.56% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$188 – Sellers – 5.2:1, -22.38% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$186 – Buyers – 1.42:1, -23.21% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$184 – Buyers – 2.42:1, -24.04% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$182 – Buyers – 1.22:1, -24.86% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$180 – Buyers – 1.5:1, -25.69% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$178 – Sellers – 1.11:1, -26.51% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$176 – Sellers – 3.3:0*, -27.34% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$174 – Buyers – 2:1, -28.16% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$172 – Buyers – 1.83:1, -28.99% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$170 – Sellers – 1.12:1, -29.82% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$168 – Buyers – 2.5:1, -30.64% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$166 – Sellers – 2.1:1, -31.47% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$164 – Buyers – 1.67:1, -32.29% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$162 – Sellers – 1.1:0*, -33.12% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$160 – Sellers – 1.2:1, -33.94% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$158 – Buyers – 1.67:1, -34.77% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$156 – NULL – 0:0*, -35.6% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

Price Level:Volume Sentiment Analysis For DIA, The SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF

DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF has finally shown surging volumes and signs of fatigue from the “buy & hold” blue-chip crowd.

Tie in the fact that the first two support levels are Seller oriented & there may be more declines on the horizon, especially given how resilient the index has remained vs. the other 3 majors.

The charts & data below may lend aid to analysis of where DIA winds up going next in terms of breaking through support/resistance levels.

$505 – NULL – 0:0*, +10.77% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$500 – Buyers – 0.9:0*, +9.68% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$496 – Buyers – 4.25:1, +8.8% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$492 – Buyers – 5.86:1, +7.92% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$488 – Sellers – 1.81:1, +7.04% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$484 – Sellers – 1.31:1, +6.17% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$480 – Sellers – 1.6:1, +5.29% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$476 – Buyers – 1.33:1, +4.41% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$472 – Sellers – 1.07:1, +3.53% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$468 – Even – 1:1, +2.66% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$464 – Buyers – 1.2:1, +1.78% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$460 – Buyers – 1.15:1, +0.9% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$456 – Buyers – 2.53:1, +0.02% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$452 – Sellers – 1.26:1, -0.85% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price – Current Price Level*

$448 – Sellers – 1.9:1, -1.73% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$444 – Buyers – 3.75:1, -2.61% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$440 – Buyers – 1.86:1, -3.49% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$436 – Buyers – 1.23:1, -4.36% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$432 – Sellers – 1.55:1, -5.24% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$428 – Buyers – 1.63:1, -6.12% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$424 – Buyers – 1.14:1, -7% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$420 – Buyers – 3.43:1, -7.87% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$416 – Sellers – 1.08:1, -8.75% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$412 – Buyers – 1.05:1, -9.63% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$408 – Sellers – 1.41:1, -10.5% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$404 – Buyers – 1.06:1, -11.38% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$400 – Buyers – 4.17:1, -12.26% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$396 – Buyers – 2.39:1, -13.14% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$392 – Seller s- 1.05:1, -14.01% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$388 – Buyers – 2.08:1, -14.89% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$384 – Buyers – 2.38:1, -15.77% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$380 – Even – 1:1, -16.65% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$376 – Sellers – 1.03:1, -17.52% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$372 – Sellers – 1.49:1, -18.4% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$368 – Sellers – 1.06:1, -19.28% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$364 – Buyers – 1.6:1, -20.16% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$360 – Buyers – 2.04:1, -21.03% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$356 – Buyers – 2.22:1, -21.91% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$352 – Buyers – 0.3:0*, -22.79%% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$348 – Buyers – 1.78:1, -23.67% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$344 – Sellers – 1.5:1, -24.54% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$340 – Buyers – 10:1, -25.42% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$336 – Buyers – 1.68:1, -26.3% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$332 – Buyers – 1.29:1, -27.18% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$328 – Buyers – 2.29:1, -28.05% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$324 – Buyers – 1.34:1, -28.93% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$320 – Buyers – 1.16:1, -29.81% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$316 – Buyers – 1.1:1, -30.69% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$312 – Sellers – 1.2:1, -31.56% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$308 – Sellers – 1.43:1, -32.44% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$304 – Buyers – 1.62:1, -33.32% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$300 – Sellers – 9:1, -34.19% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$296 – Buyers – 2.2:1, -35.07% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$292 – Buyers – 3:1, -35.95% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$288 – Sellers – 5.5:1, -36.83% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$284 – Sellers – 1.08:1, -37.7% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$280 – Buyers – 1.5:1, -38.58% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$276 – Sellers – 1.11:1, -39.46% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$272 – Sellers – 6.5:1, -40.34% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

$268 – NULL – 0:0*, -41.21% From 3/20/2026’s Closing Price

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM OR DIA AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF fell -2.07%, while the VIX closed the week at 26.78, indicating an implied one day move of +/-1.69% & an implied one month move of +/-7.74%.

Their RSI is trending down & approaching the oversold 30-mark, currently at 30.42, as well as an MACD that continues to be bearish, like it has for the overwhelming amount of time since mid-January 2026.

Volumes were +32.92% higher than the prior year’s average (105,220,000 vs. 79,160,359), which is rather chilling when you consider that each session of the week declined from its opening price.

Monday opened higher, made a run at the 10 day moving average’s resistance, but ultimately sunk lower throughout the session on low volume, closing the day as a skinny spinning top, indicating that there was a bit of hesitency among market participants.

Tuesday was similar, where a gap up open ran at the 10 DMA’s resistance, temporarily broke through it, but ultimately sunk lower to close below its opening price on slightly higher volume than Monday.

Wednesday the cracks became exposed and the fear market participants were feeling came into plain view, as a gap down open made one lasts attempt at the resistance of the short-term trendline, only to decline -1.4% on the day, bringing the support of the 200 day moving average into play.

Thursday the quiet part was said aloud, as SPY opened in-line with the 200 DMA, sunk lower, but managed to rally higher, temporarily retracing into Wednesday’s range, before closing -0.25% and signaling that there was limited faith in the long-term trendline.

Friday opened lower, again in-line with the 200 day moving average, and risk-off sentiment carried SPY to its first close below the 200 DMA since 5/21/2026 on the week’s highest volume, signaling that there was a bit of fear & loss of confidence in the S&P 500.

Heading into a new week there will be a few things to be mindful of.

Firstly, the lower shadow on Friday’s candle signals that there is still downside appetite, but that some bulls stepped in thinking they’d found a buying opportunity.

Secondly, the 10 DMA is quickly approaching the 200 DMA bearishly, which will likely result in a death-cross by EOW.

Third, the volume sentiment numbers below show support levels to be sparse and with Selling pressure still near the closing price of Friday’s session

The upside case revolves around SPY gaining traction with advancing volume that enables an uptrend, but based on last week’s volume trends there appears to be reluctance towards that at the moment, particularly with the moving 10 & 50 DMA’s coming down on the 200 DMA.

There also is a Seller zone that houses SPY’s first resistance test, so that adds to the difficulty of a significant breakout taking place immediately following last week’s declines.

The consolidation view figures oscillations around the 200 DMA until the 10 DMA draws nearer, which likely then leads to more near-term declines.

In the declining case things get interesting, as the next two support levels are in historic Seller zones, leaving SPY to look for footing at their third support levels, $634.47.

Should the footing not be found, a proper -10% from SPY’s all-time high in January 2026 would be ~$626.35, bringing that fourth levels below of $614.08 into play potentially.

$614.08 becomes the gatekeeper to the unfilled gaps of last May & June as well, which means there could be further breakdowns if it doesn’t hold strong.

Use the table below to identify strength/weakness of support/resistance levels.

SPY has support at the $647.16 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 3.63:1 ((updated volume numbers used in this article, will be published in Volume-centric post by mid-week))), $634.47 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 3.17:1), $614.08 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.67:1) & $588.79/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.34:1) price levels, with resistance at the $649.47 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 3.63:1), $656.52 (200 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.54:1), $657.46 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.54:1) & $660.59/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.92:1) price levels.

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF dropped -1.96% for the week, having a similar looking chart to SPY.

Their RSI is trending bearishly towards the neutral 30-mark, currently at 35.22, with an MACD that is bearish & breaking off more bearishly per its histogram.

Volumes were +17.42% higher than the prior year’s average (63,976,000 vs. 54,485,139), which has bearish implications for the same reasons cited above for SPY, all sessions ended lower than they opened & the top three volume sessions were outright declines.

Monday opened higher, tested higher to get rejected by the 10 day moving average’s resistance, before closing lower on the day as a skinny spinning top on low volume, indicating hesitency & uncertainty.

Tuesday opened on a gap up in-line with the 10 DMA, broke above temporarily, then dipped below it, ultimately closing as a doji in-line with it on the week’s lowest volume, which did not project any signals of confidence among market participants.

Wednesday opened on a gap lower, and proceeded to decline -1.39% and volume perked up above the levels of the week’s first two sessions.

Thursday opened on another gap lower below the 200 day moving average, signaling that the tech-heavy index had broken down the long-term trend, but after briefly declining more bulls stepped in to push its close higher than the open, on the second highest volume of the week.

This volume spike is attributed to both the original gap down selling, as well as the buying pressure that it took to push back to close above the 200 DMA.

Friday opened lower, in-line with the 200 DMA & sunk throughout the session in a selloff into the weekend, as nobody wanted to take risk home with them given the current international/war environment.

Heading into the new week, the upside case relies around breaking out above the 200 day moving average’s resistance & then breaking out above the 10 DMA, which along with the 50 DMA are approaching the 200 DMA bearishly with the 10 DMA looking to death cross by Wednesday.

The consolidation case sees QQQ oscillating around the 200 DMA awaiting an upside or downside catalyst (else the arrival of the moving averages mentioned above).

The downside case gets intersting, as the first support level is in a Seller zone, the next two are in Buyer zones & the fourth is in a Seller zone.

Should we see those passed through all eyes should go to the gatekeeper support levels of $550.33, as should that break down the gaps of last May & June look likely to fill to the downside.

QQQ has support at the $581.89 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2.14:1), $579.99 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.24:1), $573.23 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 13:1) & $557.47/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.36:1) price levels, with resistance at the $589.37 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.27:1), $592.03 (200 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.2:1), $594.76 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.2:1) & $597.90/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2.28:1) price levels.

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF lost -1.77% for the week, as the small cap index had the strongest week of the four major index ETFs.

Their RSI is trending bearishly towards the oversold 30 level & is currently at 33.58, while their MACD is still bearish, as it has since late January 27, 2026.

Volumes were +38.6% higher than the prior year’s average (53,712,000 vs. 38,752,390), which should catch some eyeballs given there was only one true advancing session throughout the week.

Monday opened on a gap higher, made a run at the 10 day moving average’s resistance, but was stopped short & sunk to close lower on the day on the week’s third highest volume.

Tuesday opened on a gap higher, ran up & through the resistance of the 10 DMA, before slumping back down to test lower & ultimately close as a doji +0.63% on the day on weak volume, indicating that there was uneasiness in the air.

Wednesday showed a gap down, that attempted to run higher, but ultimately sunk throughout the session.

Thursday opened on a gap lower, tested lower, before powering higher to temporarily break above the 10 DMA’s resistance, but settled lower to post daily gains of +0.65% on the week’s second highest volume.

Friday opened lower, made a brief attempt higher, before risk came off the table & IWM sunk-2.18% on the week’s highest volume heading into the weekend, while also temporarily breaking down below the 200 day moving average.

Heading into the new week, the upside case revolves around breaking out and staying above the 10 day moving average’s resistance, as the short-term trend has remained sustainable& sturdy for the better part of since mid-January.

This will require a lot of increased advancing volume to accomplish, as you can see it has either held resilient, or been sticky with IWM oscillating around it for the majority of that period.

IWM has support at the $240.03 (200 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.11:1), $239.53 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.23:1), $236.34 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.23:1) & $235.07/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.47:1) price levels, with resistance at the $243.96 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.11:1), $245.12 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.27:1), $245.42 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.27:1) & $247.20/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.27:1) price levels.

DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF declined -2.26% for the week, faring the worst of the four major index ETFs as investors dumped blue chip names.

Their RSI is in oversold territory, currently at 25.87, while their MACD is bearish, as it has been for the majority of the past month and a half.

Volumes were +49.21% higher than the prior year’s average levels (7,752,000 vs. 5,195,299), which paints quite a risk-off story for the blue chip index, especially after its resilience through times where other indexes saw volatility.

Monday opened on a gap up, fell short of reaching the 10 DMA’s resistance & ultimately closed the session as a doji on the week’s second lowest volume, not inspiring confidence & showing that there was not much bullishness or enthusiasm to be found anywhere.

Tuesday opened on a gap up just below the 10 DMA, temporarily poked its upper shadow through it, but then declined throughout the rest of the session to close below its opening price.

Wednesday opened on a gap down & continued lower to close just below the 200 day moving average, as even the long-term trend of the blue chipswasn’t spared.

Thursday opened on a gap lower below the 200 DMA, but managed to run higher and close down for the day but above its opening price as a spinning top candle that never breached the resistance of the 200 DMA, signaling bearish indecision.

Friday also opened on a gap lower, temporarily breaking above the $400/share mark, but ultimately sank -0.91% on the day.

Heading into the new week the upside case revolves around being able to break out above the 200 DMA with strong advancing volume.

Without that volume mentioned there will not be much strength of support behind the move & it should be viewed with skepticism.

The consolidation case revolves around staying within the range of Thursday & Friday’s candles while awaiting an upside or downside catalyst as the 10 DMA crosses below the 200 DMA bearishly to catch up to price.

The downside case shows the next two support levels are in Seller zones, while the following two are in Buyer zones.

The fourth support level is the gatekeeper to the gap ups of May & June of 2025, which will make it a key area to watch in the event of a decline.

DIA has support at the $454.43 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.26:1), $451.15 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.9:1), $445.34 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.75:1) & $428.67/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.63:1) price levels, with resistance at the $461.53 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.15:1), $462.49 (200 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.15:1), $465.67 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.2:1) & $466.85/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.2:1) price levels.

The Week Ahead

Monday the week begins with Construction Spending (Delayed Report*) data at 10 am & there are no major earnings reports scheduled for release.

U.S. Productivity (Revision) data is released Tuesday at 8:30 am, before S&P Flash U.S. Services PMI & S&P Flash U.S. Manufacturing PMI data comes out at 9:45 am & Fed Governor Barr speaks at 6:30 pm.

Tuesday’s earnings reports start off with Concentrix, Core & Main and Smithfield Foods before the opening bell, followed by AAR Corp., Braze, KB Home & Worthington Enterprises after the session’s close.

Wednesday features Import Price Index & Import Price Index minus Fuel data at 8:30 am, followed by Fed Governor Miran speaking at 4:10 pm.

Chewy reports earnings Wednesday morning, along with Cintas, Kingsoft Cloud, Paychex & Winnebego, followed by Enerpac Tool Group, H.B. Fuller, JBS SA, Jefferies, Karman Space & Defense, MillerKnoll, Navan & Worthington Steel after the session’s close.

Initial Jobless Claims data comes out Thursday at 8:30 am, followed by Fed Governor Cook speaking at 4pm, Fed Governor Miran speaking at 6:30 pm, Fed Vice Chair Jefferson speaking at 7pm & Fed Governor Barr speaking at 7:10 pm.

Thursday morning’s earnings reports include BRP Inc., Commercial Metals, Lovesac & Shoe Carnival, before Argan, BitGo Holdings & Oxford Industries after the closing bell.

Friday the week winds down with Consumer Sentiment (final) data at 10 am.

Carnival & Legence Corp. report earnings before Friday’s opening bell.

See you back here next week!

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM OR DIA AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF fell -1.5% last week, while the VIX closed the week at 27.19, indicating an implied one day move range of +/-1.71% & an implied one month move range of +/-7.86%.

Their RSI is trending down, approaching the oversold 30-mark at 33.54, while their MACD is bearish, as it has been for most of 2026 so far.

Volumes were +13.29% higher than the prior year’s average (88,696,000 vs. 78,290,000), indicating that there is more of a risk-off sentiment creeping into the market.

Monday opened the week off with a bullish engulfing pattern formation on solid volume, likely baiting smaller fish into buying into the market.

Tuesday confirmed this when the session opened lower, climbed above Monday’s high, only to decline in a high wave gravestone doji, indicating that there was still bearish sentiment left among market participants.

Wednesday this theme continued, with a lower open and another doji candle indicating uncertainty & complacency at once, on the week’s lowest volume (Tuesday had the second lowest).

Something of note here is that the 10 day moving average has been signaling that there is no faith in the short-term trend & has held up robustly as a resistance level.

Thursday opened on a gap down that broke down the lower Bollinger Band on the highest volume of the week signaling that there was a bit of panic spreading & that folks were moving towards the exit.

Friday opened higher, but slumped throughout the day as there was a risk-off heading into the weekend sentiment, indicated by the second highest volume of the week.

Heading into the new week keep an eye on how high prices can break out above the short-term trendline or if it holds staunch & forces price lower, particularly if there is a break made towards the 200 day moving average which is now within <1% of the week’s closing price level for SPY.

This is particularly interesting as it is currently in a Seller dominated price zone that sits atop another Seller zone, which may show us the breakdown of the 200 DMA as support levels are spread rather thin, as outlined below.

SPY has support at the $659.26 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.55:1), $656.41 (200 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.55:1), $651.25 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 4.56:1) & $648.93/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.6:0*) price levels, with resistance at the $662.39 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.52:1), $671.96 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.4:1), $675.79 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.28:1) & $676.57/share (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.28:1) price levels

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF dipped -1.01% for the week, as the tech-heavy index fared the best of thefour major index ETFs.

Their RSI is trending down, currently at 39.85, while their MACD crossed over bearishly towards the end of the week.

Volumes were +29.62% higher than the prior year’s average (70,054,000 vs. 54,047,720), as investors hopped into the tech heavy index on Monday & Tuesday in droves, before rug pulling their money out by week’s end.

Monday opened lower, but like SPY managed to power higher to form a bullish engulfing pattern with Friday’s candle on the highest volume of the week for QQQ.

Tuesday opened higher, ran up towards the upper Bollinger Band, but ultimately sank down for a slight advance, but forming a gravestone doji which signaled that pessimism was strong.

Wednesday is when the cracks began to show, as a bearish engulfing doji emerged that closed in-line with the 10 day moving average, signaling that there was a problem for the short-term trendline.

Thursday opened on a gap down that ultimately sank lower to touch the lower Bollinger Band, indicating that there was trouble in the air for the tech-heavy index, particularly as it was the second highest volume session of the week.

Friday the trend continued and was confirmed, with a higher open that ran up to test the resistance of the 10 day moving average, only to be rejected & sink back down to close below the lower Bollinger Band on comparable volume to Thursday’s sell off.

This week shares a similar outlook to SPY, the 10 DMA will be an area to watch as it will either walk QQQ down further, or a breakout may occur, but the former seems the more likely case.

Below is a list of the Buyer:Seller sentiment for QQQ.

QQQ has support at the $591.33 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.59:1), $590.15 (200 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.59:1), $589.37 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.31:1) & $581.89/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2.33:1) price levels, with resistance at the $594.76 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.59:1), $597.90 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.45:1), $599.51 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.45:1) & $604.33/share (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.78:1) price levels

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF sank -1.74% for the week, as small caps had the second worst week of the major indexes.

Their RSI is bearish at 33.61, while their MACD is continuing a bearish streak that began on January 27, 2026.

Volumes were +49.56% higher than the prior year’s average (57,218,000 vs. 38,256,360), as there was clearly a risk-off sentiment for the small cap index.

Monday was exactly like SPY & QQQ in that IWM opened lower, but managed to trudge higher throughout the session to form a bullish engulfing pattern on the highest volume of the week.

Tuesday opened lower than Monday’s closing price, ran higher to test the 10 DMA but was rejected & ultimately sank lower to close higher than its open, but signaling weakness.

Wednesday was similar, except the run up did not make it to test the 10 DMA, but ultimately straddled the lower Bollinger Band & closed above the opening price, but still down on the day.

Thursday the fun began, as the second highest volume session of the week resulted in a gap down that continued lower to close below the lower Bollinger Band.

Friday saw this trend continue, as IWM opened higher, but ultimately sank down to form a bearish engulfing pattern on the week’s third highest volume, indicating severe uncertainty heading into the weekend.

Much like SPY & QQQ, IWM’s week will be focused on whether or not the resistance of the 10 day moving average holds up or not.

Should it, expect further declines & a meeting with the 200 day moving average, but if it breaks out above expect a consolidation while the 20 DMA approaches the 10 DMA.

IWM has support at the $245.86 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.32:1), $244.39 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.32:1), $239.96 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.57:1) & $239.38/share (200 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.57:1) price levels, with resistance at the $247.65 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.32:1), $251.92 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 4.67:1), $254.63 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $255.05/share (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels

DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF declined -1.85%, as the blue chip index had the worst week of the major index ETFs.

Their RSI is in oversold territory at 28.49, while their MACD is looking similar to IWM’s in terms of prolonged bearishness (minus 4 sessions in February 2026).

Volumes were +51.93% higher than the prior year’saverage (7,734,000 vs. 5,090,480), as the buy & hold blue chip index had market participants spooked.

DIA also started the week with a bullish engulfing pattern, which notably opened below the lower Bollinger Band, continued lower, before powering back higher to close in-line with it; not a great sentiment indicated.

Tuesday showed a gravestone high wave doji, signaling that the wheels were coming off of the truck.

Wednesday opened lower and continued so, but managed to close near the lower Bollinger Band after temporarily dipping beneath it.

Thursday opened on a gap lower & the second highest volume session of the week showed more selling and closed below the lower Bollinger Band.

Friday followed suit, opening slightly higher, only to sink back down to the lower Bollinger Band on the week’s third highest volume.

Heading into the new week, reference the data below with a keen eye on the 10 DMA to see if there’s a breakout to the upside.

DIA has support at the $462.52 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 7:1), $462.34 (200 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 7:1), $455.41 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 10.73:1) & $452.12/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 10.73:1) price levels, with resistance at the $466.68 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.17:1), $467.86 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.17:1), $477.98 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.8:0*) & $478.18/share (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.8:0*) price levels

The Week Ahead

Monday the week begins with Empire State Manufacturing Survey data at 8:30 am, before Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization data comes out at 9:15 am.

Dollar Tree, KE Holdings & Science Applications announce earnings Monday morning before the opening bell, followed by Getty Images & Semtech after the closing bell.

Pneding Home Sales & Home Builder Confidence Index data comes out Tuesday at 10 am.

Tuesday morning features earnings reports from Academy SPorts + Outdoors, HUYA & Tencent Music, before Oklo, DocuSign, Kestra Medical Technologies, Lululemon athletica, Titan America & ZTO Express after the closing bell.

Wednesday delivers the highly anticipated Producer Price Index, Core PPI, PPI Year-over-Year & Core PPI Year-over-Year data at 8:30 am, followed by Factory Orders data at 10 am, the FOMC Interest-Rate Decision announcement at 2pm & Fed Chair Powell’s Press Conference at 2:30 pm.

Almonty Industries, General Mills, Hello Group, Jabil, Macy’s, Sail point, Weibo & Williams-Sonoma report earnings Wednesday before the session’s open, with Micron Technology, dLocal, Five Below & Heartflow reporting after the session’s closing bell.

Initial Jobless Claims & Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey data come out Thursday at 8:30 am, before Wholesale Inventories & New Home Sales data at 10 am.

Thursday morning features earnings reports from Accelerant Holdings, Accenture, Alibaba, Arcos Dorados, Caleres, Canadian Solar, Darden Restaurants & Signet Jewelers with earnings from FedEx & Planet Labs after the closing bell.

Friday has no major economic data nor earnings reports scheduled for release.

See you back here next week!

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM OR DIA AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF dropped -0.35% for the week, while the VIX closed the week at 18.83, indicating an implied one day move range of +/-1.19%, and an implied one month move range of +/-5.44%.

Their RSI is trending down towards the neutral 50-level, sitting currently at 57.25, while their MACD crossed over bearishly mid-week.

Volumes were +7.45% higher than the prior year’s average (78,824,000 vs. 73,359,365), hinting that there may be some bearishness creeping into markets given that three of the week’s five sessions were declining.

Monday the week kicked off on a note of somewhat muted enthusiasm, as the lowest volume session of the week resulted in a gain of +0.16%.

Tuesday opened higher, but bears stepped in to take profits, forcing SPY lower on the day, with a lower shadow that indicated that there was still downside appetite.

This became evident with Wednesday’s gap down open that managed to break down the support of the 10 day moving average, continued lower, but was able to rally higher to close down -0.49% on the day on the highest volume of the week.

Market participants were clearly beginning to show signs of exhaustion & fear.

Thursday this theme continued, as SPY opened on a gap higher, advanced slightly higher, before declining to close lower than it opened as profit taking & general uneasiness drove market participants into selling.

Friday the week continued to wind down on the cautious note mentioned above, as SPY opened higher, but continued to slide throughout the session, temporarily breaking through the support of the 10 day moving average but closing $0.10 above it.

Looking to the week ahead, the advancing case revolves around folks regaining faith in the support of the short-term trend line, as the 10 day moving average has been showing weakness based on the second half of the week.

In terms of a consolidation case, look for SPY to oscillate back & forth, and around the 10 & 50 day moving averages as they draw closer together & we await an upside or downside catalyst.

To the downside, the most important level to be watching this week is the 50 day moving average’s support, as it closed on Friday in a historically Seller oriented price zone.

Should this break down, the $671.96 support levels resides in a Buyer zone, but far enough deep within it that sentiment may become overwhelming to the downside, leading to the next two support levels which also reside in Seller zones.

Should all of these retests occur & see breakdowns, $648.93/share will be where to focus on SPY possibly finding support.

SPY has support at the $691.59 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $687.67 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.4:0*), $682.94 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 6.23:1) & $679.88/share (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.28:1) price levels, with resistance at the $696.09/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF declined -0.86% for the week, as the tech-heavy index was the least favored of the four major index ETFs.

Their RSI is trending downwards just above the neutral 50-mark, currently at 51.86, while their MACD crossed over bearishly a few sessions ago & still is in bearish territory.

Volumes were +9.32% higher than the prior year’s average levels (53,892,000 vs. 49,297,023), signaling that there was a bit of profit taking & fear creeping into the market.

Monday started the week off in a similar manners to SPY, where QQQ advanced +0.08% on the weakest volume of the week, indicating that there was not strong sentiment among market participants.

Tuesday opened slightly higher, but was unable to break above the $630/share level, ending the day as a high wave doji, but with the inability to break above that psychological hurdle mentioned above, it signaled for downside appetite on the horizon.

Wednesday opened on a gap down in-line with the 10 day moving average’s support, declined on the highest volume of the week to even temporarily break down the 50 day oving average’s support, but managed to close just below the 10 DMA’s resistance, indicating a sharp change in sentiment.

Thursday confirmed that there was blood in the water, as a gap up open was able to run up to the $630/share level, before slinking back down to close the day lower than it opened on the third highest volume of the week.

While it was able to advance slightly, it wasn’t enough from an advancing volume perspective to continue higher.

Friday opened slightly higher, but bears stepped in quickly & sold to force QQQ to break down & close below the 10 day moving average’s resistance for the second time in three days, signaling that there may be broader trouble ahead.

While the second highest volume of the week coming on Friday’s declines can be viewed as risk off heading into the weekend, it is likely symbolic of something larger at play.

Heading into the new week, the upside case revovles around breaking above the $630 newly established resistance level & folks finding strength in the short-term trendline of the 10 DMA.

After that, they just need the support of participants to run beyond the all-time high of $636.19/share.

The consolidation case sees QQQ oscillating around the 10 & 50 day moving averages while awaiting an upside or downside catalyst, which may be next week when the FOMC interest rate decision is announced on Wednesday.

To the downside, QQQ’s next two support levels are in historically Buyer zones, but their next two levels fall in Seller zones historically.

Any moves towards/through these levels bring all eyes to $589.37/share, as if support doesn’t hold up there the next two price zones are Seller oriented historically, which will likely result in a slide down to test the $579.99/share level.

QQQ has support at the $615.75 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.22:1), $612.39 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.04:1), $599.51 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.45:1) & $597.90/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.45:1) price levels, with resistance at the $622.85 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.23:1), $624.06 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.23:1), $628.40 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.75:1) & $630.00/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 4:0*) price levels.

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF advanced +2.13% for the week, being the only major index ETF that was able to turn out a week in the green.

Their RSI has flattened out in overbought territory, currently at 72.13, while their MACD is very extended bullishly, looking to settle down in the coming week.

Volumes were -6.35% lower than the prior year’s average (33,354,000 vs. 35,616,825), indicating that there was not much strength behind the move higher & that it should be viewed with skepticism.

Monday opened the week up on a note of optimism for IWM, as a bullish engulfing pattern emerged, but there was a sense of skepticism in the move as it came on the lowest volume of the week.

Tuesday the enthusiasm continued temporarily with a gap up open, but soon deflated to close just below Monday’s close on slightly more robust volume.

Wednesday opened lower, tested down to the $260.19/share level, but was able to power higher & close to form a bullish engulfing pattern with Tuesday’s candle on the week’s highest volume, indicating that there was still some bullish sentiment to go around.

Thursday confirmd this with a gap up open than ran up as high as $267.05/share, setting at a new all-time high & closing +0.88% on the day.

Friday opened on a gap up, but sent the weekend sentiment into the unknown, closing the day as a doji candle +0.09%.

The upside case heading into the new week is simple, closing out just below an all-time high set by Friday’s high price on the day means a continued rally can see higher prices set, but volume trends should be abided by (waning volume = less confidence in moves higher).

The consolidation case looks like a filling of the windows created by the late-week gap ups while awaiting the 10 day moving average to approach price & then IWM will begin oscillating around it while awaiting an upside or downside catalyst.

To the downside, the $257.34/share level is where to keep focused in the event of a breakdown of the 10 day moving average while the 50 DMA inches higher.

At price extremes like this there is either insufficient data (for the high price levels) or Buyer-skewed data, but the $257.34/share level is the gatekeeper to keep in focus.

IWM has support at the $260.01 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $257.34 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $251.92 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 4.67:1) & $248.37/share (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 4.67:1) price levels, with resistance at the $267.21/share (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

DIA, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF fell -0.32% on the week, having the second strongest week of the four majors.

Their RSI is trending down towards the neutral 50-mark, currently at 60.53, while their MACD is still bullish, but looks primed to cross over bearishly in the coming day or two.

Volumes were +48.64% higher than the prior year’s average (6,566,000 vs. 4,417,500), which paints an interesting picture as much of it came from Thursday’s high volume advancing session which lead the week, but three of the five sessions were declining, indicating that there is somewhat strong bearish sentiment in the market.

Monday the week kicked off forming a bullish engulfing pattern while also setting a new all-time high, but while elevated vs. the prior year’s average, volume was about average.

Tuesday opened lower, pushed all the way down to test the support of the 10 day moving average, but support held firm & the beginning of a flag pattern began to emerge.

Wednesday opened on a gap down in-line with the 10 day moving average’s support, before sinking below it & ultimately rallying higher to close above the open, but still -0.07% for the day on the week’s second highest volume.

Thursday managed to open on a gap higher, temporarily break the $495/share level, but ultimately settled to just below it on the week’s highest volume.

Friday opened higher, and while the support of the 10 day moving average held up, ended the week as a spinning top candle, indicating indecision on the horizon for the primarily “buy & hold” index.

Heading into the new week, the upside case stems around the flag bearing a bullish breakout to set a new all-time high.

The consolidation case sees oscillations around the 10 day moving average while awaiting an upside or downside catalyst, with the $485/share mark being the lower end of the range.

The 50 day moving average is still climbing, but won’t enter the picture unless there is some form of decline (or a prolonged consolidation).

To the downside, eyes should be on the 50 DMA’s support as it creeps higher.

Should it break down, the $468.44/share level is the gatekeeper to Seller-zones & limited support levels.

DIA has support at the $492.76 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $482.56 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.8:0*), $479.05 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.8:0*) & $478.57/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.8:0*) price levels, with resistance at the $496.16/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

The Week Ahead

Monday is Martin Luther King Jr. Day & the markets will be closed in observance of the holiday; there will be no major earnings announcements or economic data released.

There are no economic data announcements scheduled for Tuesday.

Tuesday morning begins with earnings from 3M, D.R. Horton, Fastenal, Fifth Third, Forestar, KeyCorp & U.S. Bancorp before the opening bell, followed by Netflix, Bank OZK, Hancock Whitney, Interactive Brokers, Progress Software, Simmons First National, United Airlines, Wintrust Financial & Zions Bancorp.

Wednesday features Construction Spending (Delayed Report) & Pending Home Sales data at 10 am.

Ally Financial, BankUnited, Charles Schwab, Citizens Financial Group, Haliburton, Johnson & Johnson, Old National Bancorp, Prologis, TE Connectivity, Teck Resources, Teledyne Tech, Travelers & Truist all report earnings before Tuesday’s open, before Banc of California, CACI International, FB Financial, Fulton Financial, Kinder Morgan, Knight-Swift, Pinnacle Financial & RLI Corp after the session’s close.

Initial Jobless Claims & GDP (first revision) data are scheduled for release at 8:30 am on Thursday.

Thursday morning kicks off with earnings from GE Aerospace, Abbott Labs, Atlantic Union Bankshares, Cadence Bank, FirstService, Freeport-McMoRan, Huntington Banc, McCormick, Millrose Properties, Mobileye Global, Northern Trust, OFG Bancorp, Old Republic, Procter & Gamble, Rogers Comms & Texas Capital, before Intel, Alaska Air, Alcoa, Assoc Banc-Corp, Capital One, Cathay Bancorp, Cohen & Steers, Columbia Banking, CSX, Customers Bancorp, East West Banc, Glacier Bancorp, Intuitive Surgical, Pathward Financial, Sallie Mae & SouthState Bank Corp. report after the session’s close.

Friday the week winds down with Personal Income (Delayed Report), Personal Spending (Delayed Report), PCE Index (Delayed Report), PCE (Year-over-Year), Core PCE Index & Core PCE Index (Year-over-Year) data at 8:30 am, before S&P Flash U.S. Services PMI & S&P Flash U.S. Manufacturing PMI data at 9:45 am & Consumer Sentiment (Final) data at 10 am.

Booz Allen Hamilton, Comerica, SLB & Webster Financial all report earnings before Friday morning’s opening bell.

See you back here next week!

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM OR DIA AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF climbed +1.6% last week, while the VIX closed at 14.49, indicating an implied one day move range of +/-0.91% & an implied one month move range of +/-4.19%.

Their RSI is trending higher, currently at 62.27, while their MACD is slightly bullish but relatively flat.

Volumes were -4.2% lower than the prior year’s average (69,778,000 vs. 72,833,452), as investors began coming back from holiday vacations & getting back to work after two shortened holiday weeks.

Monday the first full trading week of 2026 led off with a gap up open & climbed higher, supported by the 10 day moving average to advance +0.67% on the third highest volume of the week as market participants hopped back into the pool cautiously.

The sessions upper shadow showed that there was bullish sentiment up until the $689.43/share level, but then bears stepped in & took some early year profits off of the table.

Tuesday dealt us another gap up open on SPY, which led to it continuing higher to close up +0.59% on the day, but volume was slightly lower than the week’s first session.

Wednesday saw a gap up open that tested higher before losing footing & sliding down to decline -0.32%, as some early year profits were taken from the table on the second highest volume session of the week, which indicates some uneasiness creeping into the market ahead of inflation data & earnings this week.

It should be noted that the support of the 10 day moving average held strong though, so the short-term trend remained in tact, but the days candle formed a shooting star with a shorter upper shadow, indicating bearish sentiment creeping in more.

Thursday threw an interesting curve ball, where a gap down open retraced higher, while also temporarily breaking lower through the 10 day moving average’s support showing it is losing strength, only to close as a doji just above/in-line with the 10 DMA on the week’s lowest volume.

This signaled that there was a bit more unease setting in than the prior day suggested.

Friday opened on a gap up, tested lower but did not make it all the way down to the 10 day moving average, before powering higher to set a new all-time high & retreated slightly off of it into the close on the strongest volume of the week.

While Friday’s candle is not a proper spinning top as the body is too long, it is still not a candle I’d hang my hat upon and rest easy & indicates that while the mood was bullish heading into the weekend, uncertainty still remains.

Heading into the new week there’s a lot to unpack here, including backdated PPI data, current CPI & PPI Data, backdated retail sales data & earnings season kicking off with the big banks & some other names.

For a strong push higher at an all-time high SPY will need to see some good news & solid projections for future growth, and to see a sustainable push to continue setting new all-time highs we’ll need to be mindful of advancing volume levels, as without consistent higher levels there is not strong conviction behind any moves higher.

The consolidation case revolves around SPY oscillating around the 10 day moving average awaiting an upside/downside catalyst.

One thing to be mindful of during this is that following the slower pace of upwards movement the 50 day moving average is still creeping higher, only -1.41% below the 10 day moving average currently & beginning to flatten out, which typically comes just before a downside move.

To the downside case, the 10 day moving average is the current gatekeeper to all other support levels.

Should it break down there is strong Buyer sentiment below it, but recall that this is only because SPY is near a price extreme, making the levels relatively untested around it.

The 50 Day Moving Average is the next stop to watch (despite two other support levels in-between), as A) it resides in a Seller dominated zone over the past ~3 years in terms of volume sentiment, making it more prone to breakdown & B) in the event it holds up & SPY can consolidate, a bearish head & shoulders pattern may emerge with 12/11/25 or 12/26/25 as the left shoulder.

The table below can aid in assessing the strength/weakness of support/resistance levels.

SPY has support at the $688.29 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.4:0*), $687.67 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.4:0*), $682.94 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 6.23:1) & $678.57/share (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.28:1) price levels, with resistance at the $695.31/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF gained +2.21% last week, as the tech heavy index was second least favored of the four major index ETFs in what may be a rebalancing move to start the year or an advanced warning that tech names have pain on the horizon.

Their RSI is trending higher at 58.20, while the MACD is slightly bullish, but like SPY, also fairly flat & running parallel to the signal line.

Volumes were -5.92% lower than the prior year’s average (45,996,000 vs. 48,889,246), which makes the former of the two proposed situations above look more likely, that there is a rebalance going on more broadly that tech names will miss out on.

QQQ’s week opened on an interesting note, as they like SPY had the third highest volume of the week on Monday, but formed a harami pattern candle with Friday’s session that closed lower than it opened following a wide-range declining session that sat straddling the 10 day moving average’s support.

While the advancing of +0.79% day-over-day would be considered bullish on the sentiment side around the harami, the lower close than opening price paints a different picture which will be something interesting to watch in the coming week.

Tuesday opened higher & continued to climb, but on the weakest volume of the week, indicating that there seems to be some underlying issue for QQQ & the tech-focused names.

Wednesday confirmed this, when QQQ opened slightly lower, but managed to trudge higher, only to be stopped in its tracks at $627.94/share when the bears took over & forced the session to close as close to (but not) a shooting star candle, which carries bearish implications.

This is furthered by the fact that as has been noted in prior articles, QQQ has been unable to make a break at its all-time high & been rejected by multiple resistance levels trying to make it back to it, while the other major index ETFs have managed to stay closer to or at theirs.

Thursday opened on a gap lower by $0.01, broke through the support of the 10 day moving average, made a move down towards testing the 50 day moving average’s support, but ultimately regained footing to close in-line with the 10 day moving average, down -0.57% on the day, on the week’s highest volume.

This indicates that there was a bit of profit taking & a bit of trimming risk, but may also point to more troubling matters on the horizon.

Friday the week rounded up with a higher open, temporary decline below the support of the 10 day moving average, but a rally that spurred QQQ higher on the second highest volume of the week to close +1% on the day.

The upside case here clearly revolves around breaking out & above the two support levels that seperates QQQ from their all-time high & breaking free of the descending pattern we’ve been watching since late October’s all-time high.

The consolidation case gets murky, revolving around QQQ oscillating around their 10 & 50 day moving averages awaiting an upside or downside catalyst.

The trouble here is that the 50 day moving average has begun to roll over bearishly, and at an aggressive angle, signaling that the price & 10 DMA are likely to follow in the coming week, barring we get some good news of sorts.

As noted in the notes of prior months, QQQ will be the ringleader of any major declines, which makes this something to pay close attention to.

To the downside, the 50 DMA remains in focus, as should it break down things get hairy.

In that event, the $612.39/share support levels becomes the gatekeeper to a Seller dominated zone, one which happens to be the home of two support levels, and as the top table below shows the following two support levels are also in historic Seller zones, which should they break down sees the $579.89/share level being where to watch to assess further damage on the horizon.

QQQ has support at the $624.06 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.23:1), $620.42 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.23:1), $616.19 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.22:1) & $612.39/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.04:1) price levels, with resistance at the $627.94 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.75:1), $628.40 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.75:1) & $636.19/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF advanced +4.6% last week, as the small cap index was the favorite among market participants.

Their RSI is approaching the oversold 70 Mark & is currently at 66.09, while their MACD is bullish.

Volumes were +4.07% higher than the prior year’s average (36,988,000 vs. 35,541,825), which helped the small-cap index close the week out with a new all-time high.

Monday the week began on a gap up that managed to break out and close above the resistance levels of the 10 day moving average.

Tuesday this theme continued, when IWM opened lower, tested lower but the support of the 10 day moving average held firm & propelled IWM higher on the week’s strongest volume.

Wednesday saw a gap up open, which wquickly led to profit taking, although on the lowest volume of the week & the small cap indexes inched down temporarily below the $255/share level, but recovered to close above it, but down -0.23% on the day.

Thursday saw a gap down open below the $255/share level, but the troops were rallied & IWM shot up +1.09% on the day, setting a new all-time high.

Friday things got hairy again for the small cap index though, where IWM opened on a gap up, tested both higher & lower, and closed the day as somewhere between a doji & a spinning top, while setting a new all-time high.

Further upside moves from here seem unlikely, but not impossible, but there are now two new gaps to fill based on last week’s bookends & the uncertainty attached to Friday’s candle.

While it’s not bearish, it was also not an entirely bullish way to end the week either.

Consolidation case looks like a filling in of the gap window caused by Friday’s session, before oscillating around the 10 DMA which is on its way up towards the current price as we await upside/downside catalysts.

The downside case rests upon a window filled from last week’s bookends day gaps, with a strong focus on the $245.55-247.64/share zone, which is home to many support levels including the 50 day moving average.

Note that due to price extremes much of the support levels below skew towards Buyers, and rather than assessing strength/weakness based upon Buyers/Sellers, assessing the strength of ratios & understanding that they will dilute/may shift during declines is a better way of approaching the data.

IWM has support at the $257.34 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $252.71 (Volume Sentiment: NULL,0:0*), $251.92 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 4.67:1) & $247.64/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.32:1) price levels, with resistance at the $261.56/share (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF added +2.36% last week, as the blue chip index was the second most favorite among market participants.

Their RSI is trending higher, currently at 65.27, while their MACD is bullish.

Volumes were +45.32% higher than the prior year’s average (6,314,000 vs. 4,344,960), as investors were ready to dive into the blue chip index names to kick the year off strong.

Monday the short-term trend was broken through on a gap up & DIA kept running higher, closing just below the $490/share level, but temporarily breaking above it & on the week’s strongest volume.

Tuesday opened slightly lower, but slingshot higher to close +0.99% on the day, just below the $495/share level.

Wednesday the foot came off the gas after a gap up open & slight test higher, when the bears came in & took their profits, sending DIA sliding -0.94% on the week’s lowest volume.

Thursday opened on a gap lower, just in-line with the 10 day moving average before finding footing & running higher to close +0.52% on the day.

Friday the week wound down on a gap up open that lacked the strength behind the move to set a new all-time high, but closed +0.51% on the day.

There may be an emerging flag pattern from the past week that carries into this week, as any upside move with require something of significance to force it (and also the supporting advancing volume).

The volume point also brings up another thing to watch here, as DIA did see an uptick in volume, mostly advancing, but any lagging advancing volume this week, or significant tablecloth sweeping outflow of declining volume should be viewed with a discerning eye.

The consolidation case looks to see DIA tucked within the past week’s range, while oscillating around the 10 day moving average once it catches up, awaiting the upside/downside catalyst.

Downside case here has eyes set on the 50 day moving average’s support; due to the buy & hold nature of these names & where it sits relative to other support levels & the fact that it’s still climbing means it’s a good place to watch as a target before making any moves, but any volatility won’t likely test it this week (maybe next).

DIA has support at the $488.13 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $482.73 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.8:0*), $478.74 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.8:0*) & $477.14/share (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.8:0*) price levels, with resistance at the $496.25/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

The Week Ahead

Monday the week begins with Fed President Barkin speaking at 8 am, Fed President Bostic speaking at 12:30 pm & Fed President Williams speaking at 6pm.

No noteworthy earnings reports are scheduled for release on Monday.

NFIB Optimism Index data is released at 6 am on Tuesday, before U.S. Consumer Price Index, CPI Year-over-Year, Core CPI & Core CPI Year-over-Year data come out at 8:30 am, U.S. New Home Sales data & Fed President Musalem speaking at 10 am, U.S. Budget Deficit data at 2pm & Fed President Barkin speaking at 4pm.

Tuesday begins with earnings from Delta Airlines, JP Morgan Chase, BNY & Concentrix before the opening bell, followed by Phoenix Education Partners reporting after the closing bell.

Wednesday brings us U.S. Retail Sales (Delayed Report*), Retail Sales Minus Autos (Delayed Report*), U.S. Producer Price Index (Delayed Report*), Core PPI (Delayed Report*), PPI Year-over-Year (Delayed Report*) & Core PPI Year-over-Year data at 8:30 am, followed by U.S. Business Inventories (Delayed Report*) & Existing Home Sales data at 10 am, Fed President Kashkari speaking at 11 am, Fed President Bostic speaking at 12 pm, Fed Governor Miran speaking at 12:30 pm, Federal Reserve’s Beige Book at 2 pm & Fed President Williams speaking at 2:10 pm.

Bank of America, Citigroup, United Community Banks & Wells Fargo report earnings before Wednesday’s opening bell, followed by H.B. Fuller & Home Bancshares after the closing bell.

Initial Jobless Claims, U.S. Import Prices (Delayed Report*), Empire State Manufacturing Survey & Philadelphia Fed’s Manufacturing Survey data are released Thursday at 8:30 am, before Fed Governor Barr speaks at 9:15 am, Fed President Barkin speaks at 12:40 pm & Fed President Schmid speaking at 1:30 pm.

Thursday begins with earnings from BlackRock, First Horizon, Goldman Sachs, Insteel Industries, Morgan Stanley & Taiwan Semiconductors before the session’s open, before J.B. Hunt Transport Reports after the closing bell.

Friday brings us Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization data at 9:15 am, Fed President Barkin speaks at 11 am & Fed Vice Chair Jefferson speaking at 3:30 pm.

M&T Bank, PNC, Regions Financial & State Street all report earnings before Friday’s opening bell.

See you back here next week!

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM OR DIA AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***

Since our last check-in on Volume Sentiment Analysis in October markets have continued to slowly grind higher, with most of the gains for SPY & QQQ coming as a result of gaps up in late October, while IWM & DIA have continued higher in a more consistent fashion.

While this comes as no surprise as the two pairs have moved relatively in tandem for some time, something interesting to observe is that the NASDAQ is the only one that seems to of recent have a difficult time finding the power to break out & make a run at their all-time high, while the other three indexes are at/near per Friday’s close.

More concerning is that it has been unable to break out above the two resistance levels that seperate it from its all-time high, despite the strength of the technology names powering markets higher over the past couple of years.

Whether this is indicative of a rotation from tech names into other sectors or not for the long-term is yet to be determined, but is certainly something to be keeping an eye on.

Friday, the VIX closed at 14.49, indicating an implied one day move range of +/-0.91% & an implied one month move range of +/-4.19% for the S&P 500.

As a reminder, SPY’s beta is 1, QQQ’s beta is 1.14, IWM’s is 1.34 & DIA’s is 0.99 for perspective on how that VIX reading will impact other major indexes.

Aside from the lowered back-to-back shortened weeks, DIA has been the only index ETF of the above that has seen strong volume in the first week back of trading vs. the prior year’s average levels & even that was subpar.

For perspective, last week in the first full trading week after two shortened holiday weeks SPY traded on volume that was -7.57% than the prior year’s average (66,880,000 vs. 72,361,230), QQQ was -15.62% lower than the prior year’s average (41,100,000 vs. 48,710,996), IWM traded on -13.89% less volume than the prior year’s average (30,455,000 vs. 35,366,494) & DIA was only -2.47% lower than the prior year’s average (4,177,500 vs. 4,283,347).

This signals that there is some skepticism creeping into all but the blue chip names (despite IWM having the strongest week of the four majors mentioned).

Earnings season is upon us this coming week, and we are still getting delayed data from the government shutdown released as well, which when coupled with some of the international headlines we’re seeing may provide some interesting volatility near these all-time high levels that lack volume sentiment to support price levels & signal there is uncertainty brewing.

With that said, it is a great time to check in on the historic volume sentiments for each of the four major index ETFs mentioned above in order to assess the historic strength/weakness of support/resistance levels & shed insight into what may be coming next.

Each section below contains a view of each index ETF’s chart (for a technical breakdown of each’s chart, see last week’s market review note, this week’s will be published tomorrow), as well as a list of their current one year support & resistance levels with the volume sentiment noted beneath it on the table.

There is an additional table beneath this table with each price level’s sentiment, as well as a typed text version below that is able to be copied & pasted.

Note that “NULL, 0:0*” values denote areas that each name has traded at (or gapped through, in some instances) but with limited volume data to work with from a comparison standpoint in terms of creating a ratio of buyers:sellers (or vice versa) or is the outlier above the highest/lowest level with price data.

Also, prices that do have a ratio of Buyers:Sellers (Sellers:Buyers) where the denominator is 0 are denoted with an asterisk “*”.

In the written lists of the price levels & volume sentiments the price levels that contain support & resistance levels are marked in BOLD.

Recall that at price extremes such as the highs that we have recently hit there will tend to be skewed data due to the small sample size & factor that into how you interpret each price level’s reported sentiment.

This is intended to serve as an additional tool, similar to a barometer to use during your due diligence process & is not meant to replace doing your own research & is not financial advice.    

Price Level:Volume Sentiment Analysis For SPY, The SPDR S&P 500 ETF

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF set a new all-time high on Friday, although recent volumes have pointed to weakening senitment among market participants & a more wait-and-see approach heading into the new year.

Headng into the upcoming earnings season their Bollinger Bands appear primed to expand by mid-week, but given SPY is near such price extremes & geo-political uncertainty, as well as internal U.S. disruptions it is unclear whether it will be for the better or for the worse in terms of where price goes from there.

Throw in a slew of Fed speakers, CPI for the current month, as well as a delayed CPI report from the government shutdown, PPI data & potential earnings surprises & the uncertainty grows even more.

With that in mind, it is a good time to check in with how SPY’s volume sentiment has been at historic price levels to gain insight into how future performance may go, particularly at support & resistance levels.

Before reading the chart below, note that at price extreme such as where we stand today with SPY things will skew towards the bullish (Buyers) or bearish (Sellers) side where price resides, making the current situation Buyer heavy in local support levels.

The table below outlines SPY’s volume sentiment from the past ~3 years by price level at their one year support/resistance levels, with a more comprehensive list of all levels beneath it.

Below that is a copy & pasteable list of the data.

This is a barometer to aid in research & due diligence and is not financial advice.

$690 – NULL – 0:0*, -0.59% From Current Price Level – Current Price Level & All-Time High**

$685 – Buyers – 3.4:0*, -1.31% From Current Price Level – 10 Day Moving Average*

$680 – Buyers – 6.23:1, -2.03% From Current Price Level

$675 – Sellers – 1.28:1, -2.75% From Current Price Level – 50 Day Moving Average*

$670 Buyers – 1.4:1, -3.47% From Current Price Level

$665 – Sellers – 1.26:1, -4.19% From Current Price Level

$660 – Buyers, 2.52:1, -4.91% From Current Price Level

$655 – Sellers – 1.55:1, -5.63% From Current Price Level

$650 – Sellers – 4.56:1, -6.35% From Current Price Level

$645 – Buyers – 3.6:0*, -7.07% From Current Price Level

$640 – Buyers – 2.22:1, -7.79% From Current Price Level

$635 – Sellers – 4:1, -8.51% From Current Price Level

$630 – Sellers – 1.45:1, -9.23% From Current Price Level

$625 – Buyers – 1.53:1, -9.95% From Current Price Level – 200 Day Moving Average*

$620 – Buyers, 1.86:1, -10.67% From Current Price Level

$615 – Sellers – 4.5:1, -11.39% From Current Price Level

$610 – Buyers – 2.86:1, -12.11% From Current Price Level

$605 – Buyers – 1.2:0*, -12.83% From Current Price Level

$600 – Buyers – 2.6:1, -13.55% From Current Price Level

$595 – Buyers – 2.42:1, -14.27% From Current Price Level

$590 – Sellers – 1.74:1, -14.99% From Current Price Level

$585 – Buyers – 2.71:1, -15.71% From Current Price Level

$580 – Buyers – 1.71:1, -16.43% From Current Price Level

$575 – Sellers – 1.66:1, -17.16% From Current Price Level

$570 – Sellers – 1.55:1, -17.88% From Current Price Level

$565 – Buyers, 1.63:1, -18.6% From Current Price Level

$560 – Buyers, 1.84:1, -19.32% From Current Price Level

$555 – Buyers – 1.06:1, -20.04% From Current Price Level

$550 – Buyers – 1.76:1, -20.76% From Current Price Level

$545 – Buyers – 1.25:1, -21.48% From Current Price Level

$540 – Buyers – 3.32:1, -22.2% From Current Price Level

$535 – Buyers – 2:1, -22.92% From Current Price Level

$530 – Sellers – 1.42:1, -23.64% From Current Price Level

$525 – Buyers – 3.14:1, -24.36% From Current Price Level

$520 – Buyers – 1.09:1, -25.08% From Current Price Level

$515 – Buyers- 2.75:1, -25.8% From Current Price Level

$510 – Sellers – 1.23:1, -26.52% From Current Price Level

$505 -Buyers – 1.43:1, -27.24% From Current Price Level

$500 – Sellers – 2.02:1, -27.96% From Current Price Level

$496 – Sellers – 1.7:1, -28.54% From Current Price Level

$492 – Sellers – 1.59:1, -29.11% From Current Price Level

$488 – Sellers – 1.82:1, -29.69% From Current Price Level

$484 – Buyers – 1.04:1, -30.27% From Current Price Level

$480 – Sellers – 1.11:1, -30.84% From Current Price Level

$476 – Buyers – 5:1, -31.42% From Current Price Level

$472 – Buyers – 1.88:1. -32% From Current Price Level

$468 – Buyers – 1.5:1, -32.57% From Current Price Level

$464 – Buyers- 5.88:1, -33.15% From Current Price Level

$460 – Sellers – 1.28:1, -33.72% From Current Price Level

$456 – Sellers – 1.42:1, -34.3% From Current Price Level

$452 – NULL – 0:0*, -34.88% From Current Price Level

$448 – Buyers – 1.5:0*, -35.45% From Current Price Level

$444 – Buyers – 2.7:0*, -36.03% From Current Price Level

$440 – Buyers – 1.48:1, -36.61% From Current Price Level

$436 – Buyers – 4:1, -37.18% From Current Price Level

$432 – Sellers – 1.64:1, -37.76% From Current Price Level

$428 – Buyers – 1.19:1, -38.33% From Current Price Level

$424 – Buyers – 1.10:1, -38.91% From Current Price Level

$420 – Buyers – 1.69:1, -39.49% From Current Price Level

$416 – Sellers – 1.45:1, -40.06% From Current Price Level

$412 – Sellers – 1.09:1, -40.64% From Current Price Level

$408 – Sellers – 2.25:1, -41.22% From Current Price Level

$404 – Buyers – 5.6:1, -41.79% From Current Price Level

$400 – Buyers – 1.16:1, -42.37% From Current Price Level

$396 – Buyers – 1.08:1, -42.95% From Current Price Level

$392 – Sellers – 1.27:1, -43.52% From Current Price Level

$388 – Buyers – 1.02:1, -44.1% From Current Price Level

$384 – Buyers – 3.57:1, -44.67% From Current Price Level

$380 – Buyers – 1.47:1, -45.25% From Current Price Level

$376 – Sellers – 1.6:1, -45.83% From Current Price Level

$372 – Sellers – 1.85:1, -46.4% From Current Price Level

$368 – Sellers – 3.9:1, -46.98% From Current Price Level

$364 – Sellers – 1.8:0*, -47.56% From Current Price Level

$360 – NULL – 0:0*, -48.13% From Current Price Level

Price Level:Volume Sentiment Analysis For QQQ, The Invesco QQQ Trust ETF

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF has not performed as well as SPY in recent weeks/months, as it has been unable to break out above the two resistance levels that seperate it from its all-timehigh, signaling a shift away from its tech heavy components & possible rotation play at foot.

They also look poised for more incoming volatility like SPY, which adds wonder to what comes next, as if there’s a risk-off or rotation away from tech-names support strength will become increasingly more important.

Reference the tables below to accompany your research & aid in assessing your views on the strength/weakness of support/resistance levels.

Also, note that while most of their local support levels are Buyer oriented, that many levels’ ratios will be diluted/switch to Seller zones in re-tests/declines & to assess the strength of levels in relation to the strength of their ratios due to price extremes.

$635 – NULL – 0:0*, +1.33% From Current Price Level – All-Time High*

$630 – Buyers – 4:0*, +0.53% From Current Price Level

$625 – Buyers – 2.75:1, -0.26% From Current Price Level – Current Price Level*

$620 – Buyers – 1.23:1, -1.06% From Current Price Level – 10 Day Moving Average*

$615 – Buyers – 1.22:1, -1.86% From Current Price Level – 50 Day Moving Averages*

$610 – Buyers – 1.04:1, -2.66% From Current Price Level

$605 – Buyers – 1.21:1, -3.45% From Current Price Level

$600 – Buyers – 1.78:1, -4.25% From Current Price Level

$595 – Sellers – 1.45:1, -5.05% From Current Price Level

$590 – Buyers – 1.59:1, -5.85% From Current Price Level

$585 – Sellers – 1.31:1, -6.65% From Current Price Level

$580 – Sellers – 2.33:1, -7.44% From Current Price Level

$575 – Buyers – 2.23:1, -8.24% From Current Price Level

$570 – Buyers – 10:1, -9.04% From Current Price Level

$565 – Buyers – 1.17:1,-9.84% From Current Price Level

$560 – Sellers – 1.03:1, -10.64% From Current Price Level – 200 Day Moving Average*

$555 – Sellers – 1.5:1, -11.43% From Current Price Level

$550 – Buyers – 1.04:1, -12.23% From Current Price Level

$545 – Buyers – 1.71:1, -13.03% From Current Price Level

$540 – Buyers – 1:0*, -13.83% From Current Price Level

$535 – Buyers – 3.8:0*, -14.63% From Current Price Level

$530 – Buyers – 2.19:1, 15.42% From Current Price Level

$525 – Buyers – 1.84:1, -16.22% From Current Price Level

$520 – Buyers – 1.26:1, -17.02% From Current Price Level

$515 – Buyers – 1.15:1, -17.82% From Current Price Level

$510 – Sellers – 1.31:1, -18.61% From Current Price Level

$505 – Sellers – 1.5:1, -19.41% From Current Price Level

$500 – Buyers – 1.22:1, -20.21% From Current Price Level

$496 – Buyers – 1.24:1, -20.85% From Current Price Level

$492 – Sellers – 1.30:1, -21.49% From Current Price Level

$488 – Buyers – 10:1, -22.13% From Current Price Level

$484 – Buyers – 1.5:1, -22.76% From Current Price Level

$480 – Buyers – 1.10:1, -23.4% From Current Price Level

$476 – Buyers – 1.4:1, -24.04% From Current Price Level

$472 – Buyers – 2.29:1, -24.68% From Current Price Level

$468 – Sellers – 1.03:1, -25.32% From Current Price Level

$464 – Sellers – 1.10:1, -25.96% From Current Price Level

$460 – NULL – 0:0*, -26.59% From Current Price Level

$456 – Buyers – 1.85:1, -27.23% From Current Price Level

$452 – Buyers – 4.7:0*, -27.87% From Current Price Level

$448 – Sellers – 1.7:1, -28.51% From Current Price Level

$444 – Sellers – 3.11:1, -29.15% From Current Price Level

$440 – Sellers – 1.77:1, -29.79% From Current Price Level

$436 – NULL – 0:0*, -30.42% From Current Price Level

$432 – Buyers – 1.6:0*, -31.06% From Current Price Level

$428 – Sellers – 4.8:0*, 31.7% From Current Price Level

$424 – NULL – 0:0*, -32.34% From Current Price Level

$420 – Buyers – 1.33:1, -32.98% From Current Price Level

$416 – NULL – 0:0*, -33.62% From Current Price Level

$412 – Sellers – 3.6:0*, -34.25% From Current Price Level

$408 – NULL – 0:0*, -34.89% From Current Price Level

Price Level:Volume Sentiment Analysis For IWM, The iShares Russell 2000 ETF

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF just set a new all-time high after their last one came one month ago, as small cap names have continued to climb in the new year.

Their Bollinger Bands also look primed to expand soon, indicating heightened volatility on the horizon which will prove interesting in the coming weeks based on the catalysts mentioned in the first section, particularly seeing how they move-in relation to DIA, the blue chip index.

While their primary support levels are all currently NULL or Buyer dominated due to price extremes, watch for dilution of wider ratios in the coming weeks & assess strength/weakness according to them.

$260 – NULL – 0:0*, -0.09% From Current Price Level – All-Time High & Current Price Level**

$256 – NULL – 0:0*, -1.63% From Current Price Level

$252 – NULL – 0:0*, -3.16% From Current Price Level – 10 Day Moving Average*

$248 – Buyers – 4.67:1, -4.7% From Current Price Level

$244 – Buyers – 1.32:1, -6.24% From Current Price Level – 50 Day Moving Average*

$240 – Buyers – 1.22:1, -7.77% From Current Price Level

$236 – Buyers – 1.57:1, -9.31% From Current Price Level

$232 – Buyers – 1.19:1, -10.85% From Current Price Level

$228 – Sellers – 2.79:1, -12.39% From Current Price Level

$224 – Buyers – 1.59:1, -13.92% From Current Price Level

$220 – Buyers – 1.19:1, -15.46% From Current Price Level

$216 – Buyers – 1.25:1, -17% From Current Price Level

$212 – Sellers – 1.13:1, -18.53% From Current Price Level

$208 – Buyers – 1.45:1, -20.07% From Current Price Level

$204 – Buyers – 1.17:1, -21.61% From Current Price Level

$200 – Buyers – 1.19:1, -23.14% From Current Price Level

$198 – Buyers -1.02:1, -23.91% From Current Price Level

$196 – Sellers – 1.48:1, -24.68% From Current Price Level

$194 – Buyers – 2.31:1, -25.45% From Current Price Level

$192 – Buyers – 2.05:1, -26.22% From Current Price Level

$190 – Sellers – 1.46:1, -26.99% From Current Price Level

$188 – Sellers – 1.93:1, -27.76% From Current Price Level

$186 – Buyers – 1.12:1, -28.52% From Current Price Level

$184 – Buyers – 1.67:1, -29.29% From Current Price Level

$182 – Buyers – 1.64:1, -30.06% From Current Price Level

$180 – Buyers – 1.44:1, -30.83% From Current Price Level

$178 – Sellers – 1.56:1, -31.6% From Current Price Level

$176 – Sellers – 8.75:1, -32.37% From Current Price Level

$174 – Buyers – 1.86:1, -33.14% From Current Price Level

$172 – Buyers – 1.41:1, -30.9% From Current Price Level

$170 – Even – 1:1, -34.67% From Current Price Level

$168 – Buyers – 2:1, -35.44% From Current Price Level

$166 – Sellers – 2.3:1, -36.21% From Current Price Level

$164 – Sellers – 1.07:1, -36.98% From Current Price Level

$162 – Sellers – 3:1, -37.75% From Current Price Level

$160 – Buyers – 1.67:1, -38.52% From Current Price Level

$158 – Buyers – 1.1:1, -39.28% From Current Price Level

Price Level:Volume Sentiment Analysis For DIA, The SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF

DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF is just off of all-time highs, but has had the most robust volumes in the first full trading week of the year (still below average).

While the blue chip index has remained resilient due to the buy-and-hold nature of its components, it should be noted that their first support levels is in a Seller zone historically.

While expectations say Buy-and-Hold prevails, any meaningful decline (particularly for SPY or QQQ) may result in position liquidation.

The charts below can be useful in navigating the road ahead for DIA near these all-time high levels.

$496 – NULL – 0:0*, +0.2% From Current Price Level – All Time High*

$492 – NULL – 0:0*, -0.61% From Current Price Level – Current Price Level*

$488 – NULL – 0:0*, -1.42% From Current Price Level – 10 Day Moving Average*

$484 – NULL – 0:0*, -2.23% From Current Price Level

$480 – Buyers – 0.8:0*, -3.03% From Current Price Level

$476 – Buyers – 0.8:0*, -3.84% From Current Price Level – 50 Day Moving Average*

$472 – Buyers – 1.19:1, -4.65% From Current Price Level

$468 – Buyers – 1.5:1, -5.46% From Current Price Level

$464 – Sellers – 1.17:1, -6.27% From Current Price Level

$460 – Buyers – 7:1, -7.07% From Current Price Level

$456 – Sellers – 1.5:1, -7.88% From Current Price Level

$452 – Sellers – 10.73:1, -8.69% From Current Price Level

$448 – Sellers – 6.33:1, -9.5% From Current Price Level

$444 – Buyers – 2.27:1, -10.31% From Current Price Level – 200 Day Moving Averge*

$440 – Buyers – 1.5:1, -11.11% From Current Price Level

$436 – Sellers – 1.46:1, -11.92% From Current Price Level

$432 – Buyers – 1.29:1, -12.73% From Current Price Level

$428 – Buyers – 2.38:1, -13.54% From Current Price Level

$424 – Buyers – 1.11:1, -14.35% From Current Price Level

$420 – Buyers – 2.53:1, -15.15% From Current Price Level

$416 – Sellers – 1.26:1, -15.96% From Current Price Level

$412 – Buyers – 1.58:1, -16.77% From Current Price Level

$408 – Sellers – 2.73:1, -17.58% From Current Price Level

$404 – Buyers – 1.88:1, -18.39% From Current Price Level

$400 – Buyers – 2.83:1, -19.2% From Current Price Level

$396 – Buyers – 1.67:1, -20% From Current Price Level

$392 – Sellers – 2:1, -20.81% From Current Price Level

$388 – Buyers – 2.11:1, -21.62% From Current Price Level

$384 – Buyers – 2.22:1, -22.43% From Current Price Level

$380 – Sellers – 2.85:1, -23.24% From Current Price Level

$376 – Sellers – 1.04:1, -24.04% From Current Price Level

$372 – Even – 1:1, -24.85% From Current Price Level

$368 – Buyers – 1.11:1, -25.66% From Current Price Level

$364 – Buyers – 1.65:1, -26.47% From Current Price Level

$360 – Buyers – 1.6:1, -27.28% From Current Price Level

$360 – Buyers – 1.6:1, -28.08% From Current Price Level

$356 – Even – 1:1, -28.89% From Current Price Level

$352 – Buyers – 0.8:0*, -28.89% From Current Price Level

$348 – Sellers – 1.15:1, -29.7% From Current Price Level

$344 – Buyers – 0.4:0*, -30.51% From Current Price Level

$340 – Buyers – 12:1, -31.32% From Current Price Level

$336 – Buyers – 1.19:1, -32.12% From Current Price Level

$332 -Buyers – 1.38:1, -32.93% From Current Price Level

$328 – Buyers – 1.65:1, -33.74% From Current Price Level

$324 – Buyers – 1.90:1, -34.55% From Current Price Level

$320 – Even – 1:1*, -35.36% From Current Price Level

$316 – Buyers – 1.05:1, -36.16% From Current Price Level

$312 – Sellers – 1.45:1, -36.97% From Current Price Level

$308 – Buyers – 1.25:1, -37.78% From Current Price Level

$304 – Sellers – 1.08:1, -38.59% From Current Price Level

$300 – Sellers – 1.44:1, -39.4% From Current Price Level

$296 – Buyers – 1.92:1, -40.2% From Current Price Level

$292 – Sellers – 1.5:1, -41.01% From Current Price Level

$288 – Sellers – 1.19:1, -41.82% From Current Price Level

$284 – Sellers – 2.92:1, -42.63% From Current Price Level

$280 – Sellers – 1.83:1, -43.44% From Current Price Level

$276 – Sellers – 1.67:1, -44.24% From Current Price Level

$272 – Sellers – 1.6:0*, -45.05% From Current Price Level

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM OR DIA AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF fell -1.03% last week, while the VIX closed at 14.51, indicating an implied one day move range of +/-0.91% & an implied one month move range of +/-4.19%. (Please note that all charts are per Friday 1/2/26 when the note was begun, as travel & illness prevented timely publishing)

Their RSI is just above the neutral 50 level & sits currently at 52.85, while their MACD is bearish.

Volumes were -7.57% lower than the prior year’s average (66,880,000 vs. 72,361,230), which when accounting for the fact that it was a shortened holiday week signals that there was quite a bit more negative sentiment than the week prior.

Monday the week began with a note of uncertainty & limited participation, when a low-to-average volume session resulted in a decline & a doji candle on the day, and a wait & see approach to the final week of the year set in.

Tuesday too continued this trend, with even less volume and a smaller range on the doji candle.

Wednesday year end profits were taken when a lower open caused a collapse throughout the day, leading SPY to close -0.74% down on the day heading into 2026 on the second highest volume of the week, while simultaneously breaking down & closing below the support of the 10 day moving average.

Thursday was New Year’s Day so markets were not open, causing back-to-back four session weeks.

Friday the first trading session of the year opened on a gap up, tested higher, but profits taking set in early & the support of the 10 DMA faltered again, causing the session to close below its open.

Heading into a new week, there will be a lot of focus on employment data, as well as final PMI data & the U.S. Trade Deficit, and there’s not much in terms of major market moving earnings reports.

With that said, the upside case revolves around breaking above the 10 DMA with strong volumes & hoping that market participants continue to pile in to force a run at SPY’s all-time high.

The consolidation case looks a lot like the end of the week did, with SPY oscillating around the 10 DMA until an upside or downside catalyst forces it to move in one direction or another.

Should this happen keep an eye on the 10 DMA which is climbing higher towards SPY’s price.

To the downside, SPY closed the week just above a historic Seller zone from the past ~3 years ($675-679.99).

While they are currently in a strong Buyer zone, they are also near a market extreme & have not seen much downside testing at these price levels, making that ratio prime to be diluted, which would also signal a breakdown of the support of the 50 day moving average.

If this happens, the $671.96/share level will be imperative, as if it too breaks down then SPY’s next two support levels reside in Seller zones historically, which may lead to a broader selloff that possibly sees that $648.93/share level break down.

SPY has support at the $682.94 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 6.23:1), $677.10 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.28:1), $671.96 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.4:1) & $659.26/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.55:1) price levels, with resistance at the $684.85 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 6.23:1), $687.67 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.4:0*) & $691.66/share (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF declined -1.73% last week, as the tech-heavy index was the least favored of the major four indexes.

Their RSI is trending down below the 50 Mark & currently is at 47.23, while their MACD is bearish.

Volumes were -15.62% below the prior year’s average (41,100,000 vs. 48,710,996), which shows that folks weren’t overly eager to sell, but given each day’s session resulted in declines it does not paint a rosy picture.

QQQ’s week looked very similar to SPY’s, leading off Monday with a low volume gap down session that closed as a doji, indicating a lack of enthusiasm & more of a wait & see approach heading into the holiday shortened week.

Tuesday looked the same, with a lower volume gap down open that amounted to market participants taking a wait & see approach heading into 2026.

Wednesday the year’s final session produced further declines on higher volume, signaling that there was signs of fear creeping into the market for the tech-heavy index.

Friday 2026 began with a decline of -0.19% for QQQ following the breakdown of their 10 day moving average’s support on Wednesday, heading into the weekend & closing below it for a second straight day.

Heading into this week there will be a focus to the upside on the $624.06-625.52/share zone, the latter of which is the most recent resistance level that occurs in a series of three consecutive inabilities for QQQ to break higher.

Should those two levels break down, $628.40/share is the next highest important resistance level, gatekeeping for the all-time high of $636.19/share which occurred in late October of 2025.

In order to break above the ATH there will need to be increased advancing volume that is sustainable in order to prove that there is solid belief behind the strength of the tech-heavy index.

The consolidation case looks similar to what we’ve been seeing now for the past couple of months, with QQQ oscillating around the 10 & 50 day moving averages awaiting an upside or downside catalyst.

This looks likely given how for months now it has been occurring & there are lower highs being made, while lows have been somewhat all over the place.

To the downside, watch the $612.39/share level, as should that break down there are two more Buyer dominated zones historically speaking below it, but no support levels in them, which makes it all the more likely that we see tests of the next three support levels (outlined below).

Should these break down the big test that all eyes will need to be on is the $579.99/share range, as should that break down we may see further downside action.

QQQ has support at the $612.39 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.04:1), $599.51 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.45:1), $597.90 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.45:1) & $589.37/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.31:1) price levels, with resistance at the $615.74 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.22:1), $618.15 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.22:1), $624.06 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.23:1) & $625.52/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.75:1) price levels.

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF dropped -1.05% for the week, as the small cap index had the second worst week of the four majors.

Their RSI just crossed above the neutral 50-mark & is currently at 50.72, while their MACD is bearish.

Volumes were -13.89% lower than the prior year’s average (30,455,000 vs. 35,366,494), indicating that there was a bit of selling with caution & somewhat a wait-and-see approach to the year end/new year.

Monday IWM opened lower & declined into weak volume -0.61%, forming a gravestone doji, signaling that there would be more weakness into the end of 2025.

Tuesday that trend continued, temporarily opening higher, but sinking lower on the lowest volume session of the week, where for the second straight day the resistance of the 10 day moving average walked IWM lower.

Wednesday featured more of the same on the last trading day of 2025, but with more volume as folks were either quick to take profits for the year off of the table & or were beginning to become more skittish.

Friday the new year kicked off with a bang for IWM, as they opened higher, tested lower, but for a second consecutive session the strength of support of the 50 day moving average held up & pushed IWM higher to close +1.06% for the day.

Heading into the new week, the upside case for IWM revolves around whether or not the medium-term trendline (50 DMA)’s support can outmatch the resistance of the short-term trendline (10 DMA).

If it can, watch the $251.92/share level for clues as to whether a bearish head & shoulders pattern has emerged, or if there may be a run at their all-time high.

The consolidation case features more oscillations between/around the 10 & 50 DMA’s, awaiting an upside or downside catalyst to start a fresh trend.

The downside case shows lots of support levels below that have strong historic Buyer:Seller sentiment, but any breakdown in SPY, QQQ or DIA may trigger outflows from IWM, but there are numerous support levels to fall back onto for the small cap index.

IWM has support at the $247.64 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.32:1), $245.55 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.32:1), $245.46 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.32:1) & $239.96/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.57:1) price levels, with resistance at the $250.21 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 4.67:1), $251.92 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 4.67:1) & $257.34/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF dipped -0.7% for the week, faring the strongest of the major index ETFs, as the blue chip names prevailed.

Their RSI is at 56.53 trending higher, while their MACD is bearish.

Volumes were -2.47% lower than the previous year’s average (4,177,500 vs. 4,283,347), mostly on account of Friday’s advancing session.

Monday the week began with DIA opening lower, testing a bit to the upside & a bit to the downside, but closing down -0.5% on low volume.

Tuesday opened just higher, before proceeding to sink lower to test the support of the 10 day moving average which held up.

Wednesday saw DIA open slightly higher, only to retreat throughout the session & close below the 10 day moving average on a third straight day of declines with lackluster volume, indicating a sense of complacency among investors in the blue chip index.

Friday made for an interesting start to the new year for DIA, as they opened higher, retraced to Wednesday’s low & then kept declining, before powering higher on high volume to close +0.64% for the first day of the year.

Part of that high volume is explained by the wide range of pricing that DIA traded at for the day, but DIA managed to close just above the support of the 10 DMA.

That support is going to be what the base upside case is built upon, as if it holds up & manages to pump DIA higher their only resistance level is their all-time high, which will have a support levels chasing the price at, increasing the odds of a new ATH occuring.

This will also require more advancing volume to be treated as sustainable price gains.

The consolidation case involves DIA oscillating around the 10 day moving average, awaiting an upside or downside catalyst.

To the downside, there is a lot of Buyer sentiment in the price zones below DIA’s closing price for Friday, which is to be expected given its the blue chip index just below its all-time high.

The primary downside target here will be the 50 DMA & to see how strong it provides support against a decline.

The reason being is that should it break down & DIA decline through it, the $468.61/share level is then the gatekeeper to a Seller zone ($464-467.99/share), and aside from $463.27/share, there are no other support levels offering historic Buyer sentiment protecting from further declines when DIA crosses into three consecutive Seller oriented zones ($448-459.99/share).

The table below offers more insight into historic volume sentiment around DIA.

DIA has support at the $483.47 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.8:0*), $482.73 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.8:0*), $478.74 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.8:0*) & $474.90/share (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.19:1) price levels, with resistance at the $488.60/share (ALl-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

The Week Ahead

Monday the first week of the year begins with ISM Manufacturing Index data at 10 am & there are no earnings reports scheduled for release.

Fed President Barkin speaks on Tuesday at 8 am before S&P Final US Services PMI data comes out at 9:45 am.

AngioDynamics reports earnings before Tuesday’s open, before AAR & Penguin Solutions report after the closing bell.

Wednesday morning begins with ADP Employment data at 8:30 am, followed by ISM Services Index, Job Openings & U.S. Factory Orders data at 10 am.

Albertsons, Apogee Enterprises, Cal-Maine Foods, MSC Industrial & UniFirst all report earnings before Wednesday’s open, before Constellation Brands, Applied Digital, AZZ, Jefferies & PriceSmart report following the session’s close.

Initial Jobless Claims, U.S. Trade Deficit & U.S. Productivity data come out Thursday at 8:30 am, before U.S. Consumer Credit data comes out at 3pm.

Thursday opens with Acuity, Commercial Metals, Helen of Troy, Lindsay, Neogen, RPM, Simply Good Foods & TD Synnex reporting earnings, followed by Greenbrier & WD-40 after the closing bell.

Friday the week winds down with U.S. Employment Report data at 8:30 am, before U.S. Unemployment Rate, U.S. Hourly Wages, U.S. Hourly Wages Year-over-Year, U.S. Housing Starts & UMich Consumer Sentiment data come out at 9:45 am & Fed President Barkin speaks at 1:35 pm.

Conagra, Lamb Weston, Paychex & Winnebago all report earnings Friday morning before the opening bell.

See you back here next week!

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM OR DIA AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF advanced 1.42% this past week, faring the strongest of the four majors, while the VIX closed the week out at 13.6, indicating an implied one day move range of +/-0.86% & a one month implied move range of +/-3.93%.

Their RSI has curled over towards the neutral 50 mark & currently sits at 61.76, while their MACD is bullish, but looking set to dolphin-dive back bearishly through the signal line in the coming week.

Volumes were -26.64% lower than the prior year’s average levels (53,125,000 vs. 72,414,800), which doesn’t paint a particularly rosy picture given that three of the four sessions were advancing.

Monday opened on a gap up, but declined to re-test the support of the 10 day moving average, which held up, forcing prices higher & the session closed as a gravestone doji.

While the volume was the highest of the week & it did indicate that there would be short-term advances in the coming week (which were expected given it was in the run up to Christmas), it was sub-par compared to the rest of the year, which lacks medium-to-long-term conviction behind the new all-time high set Friday.

Tuesday opened just below Monday’s opening price & ran higher, but on thin volume, ultimately advancing +0.46% higher day-over-day & forming a bullish engulfing pattern.

Wednesday’s shortened session opened $0.01 lower than Tuesday’s & ran higher, but on even weaker volume than the first two days of the week (adjusted for the shortened week).

Thursday the market was closed for the Christmas holiday.

Friday began to show the waning enthusiasm, as a higher open was unable to go anywhere, forming a doji star & a day-over-day decline of -0.01% on the week’s second weakest volume (only slightly above that of the shortened Wednesday session).

While much of this can be attributed to the holiday the day prior & market participants taking vacation time etc… it began to show weakness after a week of holiday enthusiasm.

Heading into another short week the upside case for SPY to continue higher & setting new all-time highs continues to remain the same, without solid, consistent increased volume DIA’s gains will come under more & more scrutiny.

The fact that it was a holiday week provides some excuse for the waning participation of last week, and will likely continue into this upcoming one, but it doesn’t paint a particularly rosy picture for further upside gains without some major catalyst.

The good news is that due to the quiet week there are limited downside catalysts on the near-term horizon.

For the consolidation case, which is the most likely one, expect to see prices stay within the range of last week’s trading, at lowest testing the support of the 10 day moving average while we await the next upside/downside catalyst.

Speaking of the 10 DMA, notice that it has flattened out while the 50 DMA continues higher & they’re becoming closer together; keep an eye out for a bearish crossover there as based on how SPY has stalled out around this $690/share level yet again there may be steeper declines compared to the last time they crossed over.

While the declines will lead to the crossover, this time there may be added enthusiasm behind the selloff based on how sheepish market participants have become of recent.

To the downside, the next two support levels look easy to be broken through based on profit taking, making the 10 DMA’s support the real spot to be eyeing.

Should it break down, expect to see prices test the 50 DMA & likely pass through them, leading to the aforementioned 10 & 50 DMA bearish crossover.

In the event of this, eyes should go to the $659.26/share support level, as it resides in a Seller dominated zone for the past ~3 years, and sits above another Seller zone (see table below), which would likely lead to a retest of the $648.93/share level, assuming there is no upside catalyst.

QQQ in the next section also may lend clues to what happens next to SPY given how closely they trade to one another.

SPY has support at the $687.67 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $682.94 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $681.33 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $675.50/share (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels, with resistance at the $691.66/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF gained +1.11% on the week, as the tech-heavy index was the third favorite of the four major index ETFs.

Their RSI has also curled over bearishly towards the neutral 50 level & sits at 57.04 Per Friday’s close, while their MACD is bullish, but looks set to dolphin back through the signal line either this week or next.

Volumes were -32.92% lower than the prior year’s average (32,622,500 vs. 48,631,360), in a similar manner to SPY’s over the shortened holiday week day-over-day.

Monday opened on a gap higher, attempted to climb, but ultimately sank to close lower than the open on the week’s strongest volume to close as a spinning top candle, indicating uncertainty with a tint of bearishness.

Tuesday opened lower, but was able to rally throughout the day to close higher, but on lighter volume than Monday’s already low level.

Wednesday opened lower, but the holiday spirit was in full force & QQQ climbed higher, but closed on by far the lowest volume of the week, indicating that despite the half-day there was waning enthusiasm & participation in the market for the tech-heavy index.

Friday also mirrored SPY’s performance, where a doji star emerged on a daily decline of -0.01% on extremely light volume for a full session, all indicating waning enthusiasm among market participants.

Moving into a new week, the upside for QQQ hinges around being able to break out & above the $624.06/share level, with the next test being $628.40/share before making a run at the all-time high.

Again, like SPY & as echoed in months past, there will need to be a sustained uptick in advancing volume, as current conditions show a bit more uncertainty & some profits being taken before there can be any form of certainty behind a new all-time high, especially given how contracted daily candles have become in the past month vs. the last.

For the consolidation case, expect to see a closing of the window created by Monday’s gap up, followed by oscillations around the 10 & 50 day moving averages while we await an upside or downside catalyst.

The 10 & 50 day moving averages have smoothed out while also bearishly crossing one another, making a downside move likely more pronounced & indicating that they’ll break down.

Should that occur, the $597.90 & $599.51/share support levels are in a Seller zone based on the past year, turning attention to the $589.37/share support level to stop bleeding should things progress that far.

QQQ has support at the $614.86 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.17:1), $614.69 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.17:1), $612.39 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.17:1) & $599.51/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.17:1) price levels, with resistance at the $624.06 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $628.40 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $636.19/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF added only +0.24% for the week, as the small cap index was the least favored of the major four index ETFs.

Their RSI is trending down towards the neutral 50 level, currently at 55.35, while their MACD remains bearish, as it has for the past couple of weeks.

Volumes were -33.47% lower than the prior year’s average (23,505,000 vs. 35,332,280), indicating some level of complacency given IWM straddled the 10 day moving average all week, treating the short-term moving average as a balance beam.

Monday IWM opened on a gap up, made a run at the $255/share level, temporarily breaking above it, but closed below it for a +1.11% advance on the day on the week’s highest volume.

Tuesday opened near the low end of Monday’s range & mimicked Friday’s doji candle that SPY & QQQ sported for the week, providing potential insight into what we’ll see next week/the following given that next week is also a shortened holiday week.

Wednesday opened in-line with the 10 DMA’s support, floating just above it, before temporarily breaking down below it but managing to rally back higher to close +0.25% on the day.

Despite the half-day, Wednesday’s volume was eclipsed by each other session of the year’s volume, which casts a shade of doubt on the strength of the short-term trendline.

Friday opened lower & continued to decline, temporarily breaking down the support of the 10 DMA, but managed to rally higher to close above it.

Friday also had extrodinarily low volume compared to the rest of the year, indicating that there is still quite a bit of uncertainty among market participants.

For the upside case, $251.92/share will need to be broken above before there can be any moves towards the all-time high, which aren’t impossible given the January effect on small-cap names, but should broader markets decline expect IWM to follow suit.

The consolidation case involves oscillating around the 10 day moving average as we await an upside or downside catalyst.

To the downside, the 10 day moving average does not look particularly strong as a support level at the moment, which should shift attention to whether or not the 50 DMA is stronger, neither of which have much data for reference in terms of volume sentiment due to the extreme nature of their price.

However, something emerging on the chart is the appearance of a bearish head & shoulders pattern, which will be something to monitor given that the trough between the left shoulder & head dips down to $228.13/share.

IWM has support at the $251.05 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $247.64 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $246.70 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $245.55/share (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels, with resistance at the $251.92 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $257.34/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF gained +1.22% for the week, having the second strongest weekly performance.

Their RSI has plateaued & flatlined at 64.04, while their MACD is still bullish, but looking set to roll over bearish in the coming week or two (shortened week may impact this).

Volumes were -30.81% lower than the prior year’s average (2,952,500 vs. 4,267,440), which sounds alarm bells when you consider that all four sessions were advancing (sans Friday’s +0.00% returns).

Monday opened up straddling the 10 day moving average’s support, climbed higher towards the $485 level, but fell short on the day on the week’s highest volume.

Tuesday this trend continued, opening just above the 10 DMA & climbing +0.16% on the day on slightly lower volume & still closing below $485 despite temporarily breaking out above it, signaling that there is a lack of conviction of DIA above that level.

Wednesday opened slightly lower, but the Christmas spirit was alive & well rocketing DIA higher +0.57% on the day, but volume was still very low even when taking the holiday half day into consideration.

Friday the week closed on a more somber note, where low volumes continued, albeit slightly higher than Wednesday’s & a doji star formation formed, indicating that there is uncertainty & perhaps some unleashed volatility on the horizon as market participants become on edge as we near DIA’s all-time high again.

Heading into the new week the upside case involves breaking out above the all-time high, which is the only resistance level.

This, just like the cases above will require volume enhancements that are proven with time in order to be believable.

In the consolidation case, expect to see DIA oscillating around the 10 day moving average as we await a catalyst to the upside or downside.

To the downside, should a double top emerge & force prices lower the 50 day moving average is the first place to look, as it will continue climbing higher & resides in “no man’s land” in terms of volume sentiment.

If that breaks down $463.27/share is the next stop in terms of major tests, and $452.85/share should be watched closely if it is approached as it resides in a Seller zone historically.

DIA has support at the $483.05 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $482.73 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $478.73 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $473.27/share (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels, with resistance at the $488.60/share (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

The Week Ahead

Pending Home Sales Data comes out at 10 am on Monday & there are no noteworthy earnings reports due for release.

Tuesday morning brings us S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index (20 Cities) data at 9 am, followed by Chicago Business Baromter (PMI) data at 9:45 am & the Minutes of the December FOMC Meeting at 2 pm & there are no noteworthy earnings reports scheduled.

Initial Jobless Claims data is set for release at 8:30 am on Wednesday, there will be no noteworthy earnings reports & the stock market keeps regular hours, while the bond market will close at 2pm.

Thursday if New Year’s Day & there is no economic data, nor earnings reports scheduled; Happy New Year!

There is no major economic data set for release on Friday, nor are there any earnings reports.

See you back here next week!

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM OR DIA AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***

This is the 1,000th post since I took down the old OptimizedValue.xyz & re-launched it on 4/20/2020, and I want to thank everyone who’s read my content, offered critiques, inspired & encouraged me along the way!

I first built this in December of 2016, in an effort to tinker with web development/optimization concepts to help me with my day job, as well as a way to put the things I was learning about in my spare time about stocks & markets into writing to increase my understanding of new concepts.

The website has always looked the same, but the content has evolved dramatically, as has my understanding of things.

What began as a fundamentals focused Saturday/Sunday publication that somewhat reeked of consulting deck has morphed into what you see today, and will continue to evolve.

I’ve been getting a good chuckle out of reading through some of the original posts on the Wayback Machine (archive.org), as well as even the oldest ones that are on this version of the site since the rebuild from scratch; it’s been a long 9 years.

Since the rebuild it’s been 2,061 days (https://timeanddate.com is a handy tool), the weekend posts have become focused on macro charts & the week ahead in earnings & economic data announcements, as well as the same old individual name reports for stocks & ETFs (far less frequent, admittedly, but with a focus on fundamentals & technicals), as well as the Daily VolTech report, which outlines S&P 500 components, ETFs & general Stocks ranked based on technical & volume weighted metrics.

We all have interests, thoughts & ideas, but if we don’t put our pen to paper that’s often all that they remain.

It’s not easy putting yourself out there like that (especially when it’s just a time consuming hobby in the initial stages), but it leads to digging deeper into concepts, pushing yourself to learn more & inspires the confidence to continue forward, even when you may not know much (or in the case here, anything really) about your topic of choice.

My point (and I do have one), is that I hope that if you’re reading this & have thought about doing something like this (or even if it never crossed your mind) that in 2026 you mark your beginning, as you’ll only grow your knowledge, improve how you communicate/articulate yourself & get to meet some cool folks & have fun conversations along the way.

Nine years ago it lead to me being able to speak to brokers/industry folks about my ideas on investments at happy hour who had every good reason to brush me off, that evolved into pursuing (still actively) the CMT designation, submitting a paper on something I built to contend for the Charles Dow Award, which lead to me filing a provisional patent on the tool/concept, which inspired the confidence to bring other ideas I’d been sitting on for years to the USPTO, all while meeting cool new folks & reconnecting with old childhood friends/relatives… it’s been a wild ride that I didn’t see coming for sure.

If you read this, I hope it inspires you to take the plunge with whatever your hobby or idea is, put it to paper & if appropriate (obviously don’t give away the recipes to your IP/secret sauce) get it in front of an audience for feedback; you won’t be disappointed & you have no idea where it may take you, while also holding you accountable for your own growth.

Otherwise, it’s just going to sit there for another year & maybe even be forgotten about, which would really be a waste of a good thought…

Thanks again to all who’ve helped me along the way to get here & to the ~9,800 readers/viewers who stopped by in 2025 to date!

Post 1,001 will be available tonight in the Daily VolTech segment, see you back here at 2,000!