Category: Market News, Research & Commentary

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF climbed +1.6% last week, while the VIX closed at 14.49, indicating an implied one day move range of +/-0.91% & an implied one month move range of +/-4.19%.

Their RSI is trending higher, currently at 62.27, while their MACD is slightly bullish but relatively flat.

Volumes were -4.2% lower than the prior year’s average (69,778,000 vs. 72,833,452), as investors began coming back from holiday vacations & getting back to work after two shortened holiday weeks.

Monday the first full trading week of 2026 led off with a gap up open & climbed higher, supported by the 10 day moving average to advance +0.67% on the third highest volume of the week as market participants hopped back into the pool cautiously.

The sessions upper shadow showed that there was bullish sentiment up until the $689.43/share level, but then bears stepped in & took some early year profits off of the table.

Tuesday dealt us another gap up open on SPY, which led to it continuing higher to close up +0.59% on the day, but volume was slightly lower than the week’s first session.

Wednesday saw a gap up open that tested higher before losing footing & sliding down to decline -0.32%, as some early year profits were taken from the table on the second highest volume session of the week, which indicates some uneasiness creeping into the market ahead of inflation data & earnings this week.

It should be noted that the support of the 10 day moving average held strong though, so the short-term trend remained in tact, but the days candle formed a shooting star with a shorter upper shadow, indicating bearish sentiment creeping in more.

Thursday threw an interesting curve ball, where a gap down open retraced higher, while also temporarily breaking lower through the 10 day moving average’s support showing it is losing strength, only to close as a doji just above/in-line with the 10 DMA on the week’s lowest volume.

This signaled that there was a bit more unease setting in than the prior day suggested.

Friday opened on a gap up, tested lower but did not make it all the way down to the 10 day moving average, before powering higher to set a new all-time high & retreated slightly off of it into the close on the strongest volume of the week.

While Friday’s candle is not a proper spinning top as the body is too long, it is still not a candle I’d hang my hat upon and rest easy & indicates that while the mood was bullish heading into the weekend, uncertainty still remains.

Heading into the new week there’s a lot to unpack here, including backdated PPI data, current CPI & PPI Data, backdated retail sales data & earnings season kicking off with the big banks & some other names.

For a strong push higher at an all-time high SPY will need to see some good news & solid projections for future growth, and to see a sustainable push to continue setting new all-time highs we’ll need to be mindful of advancing volume levels, as without consistent higher levels there is not strong conviction behind any moves higher.

The consolidation case revolves around SPY oscillating around the 10 day moving average awaiting an upside/downside catalyst.

One thing to be mindful of during this is that following the slower pace of upwards movement the 50 day moving average is still creeping higher, only -1.41% below the 10 day moving average currently & beginning to flatten out, which typically comes just before a downside move.

To the downside case, the 10 day moving average is the current gatekeeper to all other support levels.

Should it break down there is strong Buyer sentiment below it, but recall that this is only because SPY is near a price extreme, making the levels relatively untested around it.

The 50 Day Moving Average is the next stop to watch (despite two other support levels in-between), as A) it resides in a Seller dominated zone over the past ~3 years in terms of volume sentiment, making it more prone to breakdown & B) in the event it holds up & SPY can consolidate, a bearish head & shoulders pattern may emerge with 12/11/25 or 12/26/25 as the left shoulder.

The table below can aid in assessing the strength/weakness of support/resistance levels.

SPY has support at the $688.29 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.4:0*), $687.67 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.4:0*), $682.94 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 6.23:1) & $678.57/share (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.28:1) price levels, with resistance at the $695.31/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF gained +2.21% last week, as the tech heavy index was second least favored of the four major index ETFs in what may be a rebalancing move to start the year or an advanced warning that tech names have pain on the horizon.

Their RSI is trending higher at 58.20, while the MACD is slightly bullish, but like SPY, also fairly flat & running parallel to the signal line.

Volumes were -5.92% lower than the prior year’s average (45,996,000 vs. 48,889,246), which makes the former of the two proposed situations above look more likely, that there is a rebalance going on more broadly that tech names will miss out on.

QQQ’s week opened on an interesting note, as they like SPY had the third highest volume of the week on Monday, but formed a harami pattern candle with Friday’s session that closed lower than it opened following a wide-range declining session that sat straddling the 10 day moving average’s support.

While the advancing of +0.79% day-over-day would be considered bullish on the sentiment side around the harami, the lower close than opening price paints a different picture which will be something interesting to watch in the coming week.

Tuesday opened higher & continued to climb, but on the weakest volume of the week, indicating that there seems to be some underlying issue for QQQ & the tech-focused names.

Wednesday confirmed this, when QQQ opened slightly lower, but managed to trudge higher, only to be stopped in its tracks at $627.94/share when the bears took over & forced the session to close as close to (but not) a shooting star candle, which carries bearish implications.

This is furthered by the fact that as has been noted in prior articles, QQQ has been unable to make a break at its all-time high & been rejected by multiple resistance levels trying to make it back to it, while the other major index ETFs have managed to stay closer to or at theirs.

Thursday opened on a gap lower by $0.01, broke through the support of the 10 day moving average, made a move down towards testing the 50 day moving average’s support, but ultimately regained footing to close in-line with the 10 day moving average, down -0.57% on the day, on the week’s highest volume.

This indicates that there was a bit of profit taking & a bit of trimming risk, but may also point to more troubling matters on the horizon.

Friday the week rounded up with a higher open, temporary decline below the support of the 10 day moving average, but a rally that spurred QQQ higher on the second highest volume of the week to close +1% on the day.

The upside case here clearly revolves around breaking out & above the two support levels that seperates QQQ from their all-time high & breaking free of the descending pattern we’ve been watching since late October’s all-time high.

The consolidation case gets murky, revolving around QQQ oscillating around their 10 & 50 day moving averages awaiting an upside or downside catalyst.

The trouble here is that the 50 day moving average has begun to roll over bearishly, and at an aggressive angle, signaling that the price & 10 DMA are likely to follow in the coming week, barring we get some good news of sorts.

As noted in the notes of prior months, QQQ will be the ringleader of any major declines, which makes this something to pay close attention to.

To the downside, the 50 DMA remains in focus, as should it break down things get hairy.

In that event, the $612.39/share support levels becomes the gatekeeper to a Seller dominated zone, one which happens to be the home of two support levels, and as the top table below shows the following two support levels are also in historic Seller zones, which should they break down sees the $579.89/share level being where to watch to assess further damage on the horizon.

QQQ has support at the $624.06 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.23:1), $620.42 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.23:1), $616.19 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.22:1) & $612.39/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.04:1) price levels, with resistance at the $627.94 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.75:1), $628.40 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.75:1) & $636.19/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF advanced +4.6% last week, as the small cap index was the favorite among market participants.

Their RSI is approaching the oversold 70 Mark & is currently at 66.09, while their MACD is bullish.

Volumes were +4.07% higher than the prior year’s average (36,988,000 vs. 35,541,825), which helped the small-cap index close the week out with a new all-time high.

Monday the week began on a gap up that managed to break out and close above the resistance levels of the 10 day moving average.

Tuesday this theme continued, when IWM opened lower, tested lower but the support of the 10 day moving average held firm & propelled IWM higher on the week’s strongest volume.

Wednesday saw a gap up open, which wquickly led to profit taking, although on the lowest volume of the week & the small cap indexes inched down temporarily below the $255/share level, but recovered to close above it, but down -0.23% on the day.

Thursday saw a gap down open below the $255/share level, but the troops were rallied & IWM shot up +1.09% on the day, setting a new all-time high.

Friday things got hairy again for the small cap index though, where IWM opened on a gap up, tested both higher & lower, and closed the day as somewhere between a doji & a spinning top, while setting a new all-time high.

Further upside moves from here seem unlikely, but not impossible, but there are now two new gaps to fill based on last week’s bookends & the uncertainty attached to Friday’s candle.

While it’s not bearish, it was also not an entirely bullish way to end the week either.

Consolidation case looks like a filling in of the gap window caused by Friday’s session, before oscillating around the 10 DMA which is on its way up towards the current price as we await upside/downside catalysts.

The downside case rests upon a window filled from last week’s bookends day gaps, with a strong focus on the $245.55-247.64/share zone, which is home to many support levels including the 50 day moving average.

Note that due to price extremes much of the support levels below skew towards Buyers, and rather than assessing strength/weakness based upon Buyers/Sellers, assessing the strength of ratios & understanding that they will dilute/may shift during declines is a better way of approaching the data.

IWM has support at the $257.34 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $252.71 (Volume Sentiment: NULL,0:0*), $251.92 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 4.67:1) & $247.64/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.32:1) price levels, with resistance at the $261.56/share (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF added +2.36% last week, as the blue chip index was the second most favorite among market participants.

Their RSI is trending higher, currently at 65.27, while their MACD is bullish.

Volumes were +45.32% higher than the prior year’s average (6,314,000 vs. 4,344,960), as investors were ready to dive into the blue chip index names to kick the year off strong.

Monday the short-term trend was broken through on a gap up & DIA kept running higher, closing just below the $490/share level, but temporarily breaking above it & on the week’s strongest volume.

Tuesday opened slightly lower, but slingshot higher to close +0.99% on the day, just below the $495/share level.

Wednesday the foot came off the gas after a gap up open & slight test higher, when the bears came in & took their profits, sending DIA sliding -0.94% on the week’s lowest volume.

Thursday opened on a gap lower, just in-line with the 10 day moving average before finding footing & running higher to close +0.52% on the day.

Friday the week wound down on a gap up open that lacked the strength behind the move to set a new all-time high, but closed +0.51% on the day.

There may be an emerging flag pattern from the past week that carries into this week, as any upside move with require something of significance to force it (and also the supporting advancing volume).

The volume point also brings up another thing to watch here, as DIA did see an uptick in volume, mostly advancing, but any lagging advancing volume this week, or significant tablecloth sweeping outflow of declining volume should be viewed with a discerning eye.

The consolidation case looks to see DIA tucked within the past week’s range, while oscillating around the 10 day moving average once it catches up, awaiting the upside/downside catalyst.

Downside case here has eyes set on the 50 day moving average’s support; due to the buy & hold nature of these names & where it sits relative to other support levels & the fact that it’s still climbing means it’s a good place to watch as a target before making any moves, but any volatility won’t likely test it this week (maybe next).

DIA has support at the $488.13 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $482.73 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.8:0*), $478.74 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.8:0*) & $477.14/share (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.8:0*) price levels, with resistance at the $496.25/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

The Week Ahead

Monday the week begins with Fed President Barkin speaking at 8 am, Fed President Bostic speaking at 12:30 pm & Fed President Williams speaking at 6pm.

No noteworthy earnings reports are scheduled for release on Monday.

NFIB Optimism Index data is released at 6 am on Tuesday, before U.S. Consumer Price Index, CPI Year-over-Year, Core CPI & Core CPI Year-over-Year data come out at 8:30 am, U.S. New Home Sales data & Fed President Musalem speaking at 10 am, U.S. Budget Deficit data at 2pm & Fed President Barkin speaking at 4pm.

Tuesday begins with earnings from Delta Airlines, JP Morgan Chase, BNY & Concentrix before the opening bell, followed by Phoenix Education Partners reporting after the closing bell.

Wednesday brings us U.S. Retail Sales (Delayed Report*), Retail Sales Minus Autos (Delayed Report*), U.S. Producer Price Index (Delayed Report*), Core PPI (Delayed Report*), PPI Year-over-Year (Delayed Report*) & Core PPI Year-over-Year data at 8:30 am, followed by U.S. Business Inventories (Delayed Report*) & Existing Home Sales data at 10 am, Fed President Kashkari speaking at 11 am, Fed President Bostic speaking at 12 pm, Fed Governor Miran speaking at 12:30 pm, Federal Reserve’s Beige Book at 2 pm & Fed President Williams speaking at 2:10 pm.

Bank of America, Citigroup, United Community Banks & Wells Fargo report earnings before Wednesday’s opening bell, followed by H.B. Fuller & Home Bancshares after the closing bell.

Initial Jobless Claims, U.S. Import Prices (Delayed Report*), Empire State Manufacturing Survey & Philadelphia Fed’s Manufacturing Survey data are released Thursday at 8:30 am, before Fed Governor Barr speaks at 9:15 am, Fed President Barkin speaks at 12:40 pm & Fed President Schmid speaking at 1:30 pm.

Thursday begins with earnings from BlackRock, First Horizon, Goldman Sachs, Insteel Industries, Morgan Stanley & Taiwan Semiconductors before the session’s open, before J.B. Hunt Transport Reports after the closing bell.

Friday brings us Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization data at 9:15 am, Fed President Barkin speaks at 11 am & Fed Vice Chair Jefferson speaking at 3:30 pm.

M&T Bank, PNC, Regions Financial & State Street all report earnings before Friday’s opening bell.

See you back here next week!

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM OR DIA AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***

Since our last check-in on Volume Sentiment Analysis in October markets have continued to slowly grind higher, with most of the gains for SPY & QQQ coming as a result of gaps up in late October, while IWM & DIA have continued higher in a more consistent fashion.

While this comes as no surprise as the two pairs have moved relatively in tandem for some time, something interesting to observe is that the NASDAQ is the only one that seems to of recent have a difficult time finding the power to break out & make a run at their all-time high, while the other three indexes are at/near per Friday’s close.

More concerning is that it has been unable to break out above the two resistance levels that seperate it from its all-time high, despite the strength of the technology names powering markets higher over the past couple of years.

Whether this is indicative of a rotation from tech names into other sectors or not for the long-term is yet to be determined, but is certainly something to be keeping an eye on.

Friday, the VIX closed at 14.49, indicating an implied one day move range of +/-0.91% & an implied one month move range of +/-4.19% for the S&P 500.

As a reminder, SPY’s beta is 1, QQQ’s beta is 1.14, IWM’s is 1.34 & DIA’s is 0.99 for perspective on how that VIX reading will impact other major indexes.

Aside from the lowered back-to-back shortened weeks, DIA has been the only index ETF of the above that has seen strong volume in the first week back of trading vs. the prior year’s average levels & even that was subpar.

For perspective, last week in the first full trading week after two shortened holiday weeks SPY traded on volume that was -7.57% than the prior year’s average (66,880,000 vs. 72,361,230), QQQ was -15.62% lower than the prior year’s average (41,100,000 vs. 48,710,996), IWM traded on -13.89% less volume than the prior year’s average (30,455,000 vs. 35,366,494) & DIA was only -2.47% lower than the prior year’s average (4,177,500 vs. 4,283,347).

This signals that there is some skepticism creeping into all but the blue chip names (despite IWM having the strongest week of the four majors mentioned).

Earnings season is upon us this coming week, and we are still getting delayed data from the government shutdown released as well, which when coupled with some of the international headlines we’re seeing may provide some interesting volatility near these all-time high levels that lack volume sentiment to support price levels & signal there is uncertainty brewing.

With that said, it is a great time to check in on the historic volume sentiments for each of the four major index ETFs mentioned above in order to assess the historic strength/weakness of support/resistance levels & shed insight into what may be coming next.

Each section below contains a view of each index ETF’s chart (for a technical breakdown of each’s chart, see last week’s market review note, this week’s will be published tomorrow), as well as a list of their current one year support & resistance levels with the volume sentiment noted beneath it on the table.

There is an additional table beneath this table with each price level’s sentiment, as well as a typed text version below that is able to be copied & pasted.

Note that “NULL, 0:0*” values denote areas that each name has traded at (or gapped through, in some instances) but with limited volume data to work with from a comparison standpoint in terms of creating a ratio of buyers:sellers (or vice versa) or is the outlier above the highest/lowest level with price data.

Also, prices that do have a ratio of Buyers:Sellers (Sellers:Buyers) where the denominator is 0 are denoted with an asterisk “*”.

In the written lists of the price levels & volume sentiments the price levels that contain support & resistance levels are marked in BOLD.

Recall that at price extremes such as the highs that we have recently hit there will tend to be skewed data due to the small sample size & factor that into how you interpret each price level’s reported sentiment.

This is intended to serve as an additional tool, similar to a barometer to use during your due diligence process & is not meant to replace doing your own research & is not financial advice.    

Price Level:Volume Sentiment Analysis For SPY, The SPDR S&P 500 ETF

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF set a new all-time high on Friday, although recent volumes have pointed to weakening senitment among market participants & a more wait-and-see approach heading into the new year.

Headng into the upcoming earnings season their Bollinger Bands appear primed to expand by mid-week, but given SPY is near such price extremes & geo-political uncertainty, as well as internal U.S. disruptions it is unclear whether it will be for the better or for the worse in terms of where price goes from there.

Throw in a slew of Fed speakers, CPI for the current month, as well as a delayed CPI report from the government shutdown, PPI data & potential earnings surprises & the uncertainty grows even more.

With that in mind, it is a good time to check in with how SPY’s volume sentiment has been at historic price levels to gain insight into how future performance may go, particularly at support & resistance levels.

Before reading the chart below, note that at price extreme such as where we stand today with SPY things will skew towards the bullish (Buyers) or bearish (Sellers) side where price resides, making the current situation Buyer heavy in local support levels.

The table below outlines SPY’s volume sentiment from the past ~3 years by price level at their one year support/resistance levels, with a more comprehensive list of all levels beneath it.

Below that is a copy & pasteable list of the data.

This is a barometer to aid in research & due diligence and is not financial advice.

$690 – NULL – 0:0*, -0.59% From Current Price Level – Current Price Level & All-Time High**

$685 – Buyers – 3.4:0*, -1.31% From Current Price Level – 10 Day Moving Average*

$680 – Buyers – 6.23:1, -2.03% From Current Price Level

$675 – Sellers – 1.28:1, -2.75% From Current Price Level – 50 Day Moving Average*

$670 Buyers – 1.4:1, -3.47% From Current Price Level

$665 – Sellers – 1.26:1, -4.19% From Current Price Level

$660 – Buyers, 2.52:1, -4.91% From Current Price Level

$655 – Sellers – 1.55:1, -5.63% From Current Price Level

$650 – Sellers – 4.56:1, -6.35% From Current Price Level

$645 – Buyers – 3.6:0*, -7.07% From Current Price Level

$640 – Buyers – 2.22:1, -7.79% From Current Price Level

$635 – Sellers – 4:1, -8.51% From Current Price Level

$630 – Sellers – 1.45:1, -9.23% From Current Price Level

$625 – Buyers – 1.53:1, -9.95% From Current Price Level – 200 Day Moving Average*

$620 – Buyers, 1.86:1, -10.67% From Current Price Level

$615 – Sellers – 4.5:1, -11.39% From Current Price Level

$610 – Buyers – 2.86:1, -12.11% From Current Price Level

$605 – Buyers – 1.2:0*, -12.83% From Current Price Level

$600 – Buyers – 2.6:1, -13.55% From Current Price Level

$595 – Buyers – 2.42:1, -14.27% From Current Price Level

$590 – Sellers – 1.74:1, -14.99% From Current Price Level

$585 – Buyers – 2.71:1, -15.71% From Current Price Level

$580 – Buyers – 1.71:1, -16.43% From Current Price Level

$575 – Sellers – 1.66:1, -17.16% From Current Price Level

$570 – Sellers – 1.55:1, -17.88% From Current Price Level

$565 – Buyers, 1.63:1, -18.6% From Current Price Level

$560 – Buyers, 1.84:1, -19.32% From Current Price Level

$555 – Buyers – 1.06:1, -20.04% From Current Price Level

$550 – Buyers – 1.76:1, -20.76% From Current Price Level

$545 – Buyers – 1.25:1, -21.48% From Current Price Level

$540 – Buyers – 3.32:1, -22.2% From Current Price Level

$535 – Buyers – 2:1, -22.92% From Current Price Level

$530 – Sellers – 1.42:1, -23.64% From Current Price Level

$525 – Buyers – 3.14:1, -24.36% From Current Price Level

$520 – Buyers – 1.09:1, -25.08% From Current Price Level

$515 – Buyers- 2.75:1, -25.8% From Current Price Level

$510 – Sellers – 1.23:1, -26.52% From Current Price Level

$505 -Buyers – 1.43:1, -27.24% From Current Price Level

$500 – Sellers – 2.02:1, -27.96% From Current Price Level

$496 – Sellers – 1.7:1, -28.54% From Current Price Level

$492 – Sellers – 1.59:1, -29.11% From Current Price Level

$488 – Sellers – 1.82:1, -29.69% From Current Price Level

$484 – Buyers – 1.04:1, -30.27% From Current Price Level

$480 – Sellers – 1.11:1, -30.84% From Current Price Level

$476 – Buyers – 5:1, -31.42% From Current Price Level

$472 – Buyers – 1.88:1. -32% From Current Price Level

$468 – Buyers – 1.5:1, -32.57% From Current Price Level

$464 – Buyers- 5.88:1, -33.15% From Current Price Level

$460 – Sellers – 1.28:1, -33.72% From Current Price Level

$456 – Sellers – 1.42:1, -34.3% From Current Price Level

$452 – NULL – 0:0*, -34.88% From Current Price Level

$448 – Buyers – 1.5:0*, -35.45% From Current Price Level

$444 – Buyers – 2.7:0*, -36.03% From Current Price Level

$440 – Buyers – 1.48:1, -36.61% From Current Price Level

$436 – Buyers – 4:1, -37.18% From Current Price Level

$432 – Sellers – 1.64:1, -37.76% From Current Price Level

$428 – Buyers – 1.19:1, -38.33% From Current Price Level

$424 – Buyers – 1.10:1, -38.91% From Current Price Level

$420 – Buyers – 1.69:1, -39.49% From Current Price Level

$416 – Sellers – 1.45:1, -40.06% From Current Price Level

$412 – Sellers – 1.09:1, -40.64% From Current Price Level

$408 – Sellers – 2.25:1, -41.22% From Current Price Level

$404 – Buyers – 5.6:1, -41.79% From Current Price Level

$400 – Buyers – 1.16:1, -42.37% From Current Price Level

$396 – Buyers – 1.08:1, -42.95% From Current Price Level

$392 – Sellers – 1.27:1, -43.52% From Current Price Level

$388 – Buyers – 1.02:1, -44.1% From Current Price Level

$384 – Buyers – 3.57:1, -44.67% From Current Price Level

$380 – Buyers – 1.47:1, -45.25% From Current Price Level

$376 – Sellers – 1.6:1, -45.83% From Current Price Level

$372 – Sellers – 1.85:1, -46.4% From Current Price Level

$368 – Sellers – 3.9:1, -46.98% From Current Price Level

$364 – Sellers – 1.8:0*, -47.56% From Current Price Level

$360 – NULL – 0:0*, -48.13% From Current Price Level

Price Level:Volume Sentiment Analysis For QQQ, The Invesco QQQ Trust ETF

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF has not performed as well as SPY in recent weeks/months, as it has been unable to break out above the two resistance levels that seperate it from its all-timehigh, signaling a shift away from its tech heavy components & possible rotation play at foot.

They also look poised for more incoming volatility like SPY, which adds wonder to what comes next, as if there’s a risk-off or rotation away from tech-names support strength will become increasingly more important.

Reference the tables below to accompany your research & aid in assessing your views on the strength/weakness of support/resistance levels.

Also, note that while most of their local support levels are Buyer oriented, that many levels’ ratios will be diluted/switch to Seller zones in re-tests/declines & to assess the strength of levels in relation to the strength of their ratios due to price extremes.

$635 – NULL – 0:0*, +1.33% From Current Price Level – All-Time High*

$630 – Buyers – 4:0*, +0.53% From Current Price Level

$625 – Buyers – 2.75:1, -0.26% From Current Price Level – Current Price Level*

$620 – Buyers – 1.23:1, -1.06% From Current Price Level – 10 Day Moving Average*

$615 – Buyers – 1.22:1, -1.86% From Current Price Level – 50 Day Moving Averages*

$610 – Buyers – 1.04:1, -2.66% From Current Price Level

$605 – Buyers – 1.21:1, -3.45% From Current Price Level

$600 – Buyers – 1.78:1, -4.25% From Current Price Level

$595 – Sellers – 1.45:1, -5.05% From Current Price Level

$590 – Buyers – 1.59:1, -5.85% From Current Price Level

$585 – Sellers – 1.31:1, -6.65% From Current Price Level

$580 – Sellers – 2.33:1, -7.44% From Current Price Level

$575 – Buyers – 2.23:1, -8.24% From Current Price Level

$570 – Buyers – 10:1, -9.04% From Current Price Level

$565 – Buyers – 1.17:1,-9.84% From Current Price Level

$560 – Sellers – 1.03:1, -10.64% From Current Price Level – 200 Day Moving Average*

$555 – Sellers – 1.5:1, -11.43% From Current Price Level

$550 – Buyers – 1.04:1, -12.23% From Current Price Level

$545 – Buyers – 1.71:1, -13.03% From Current Price Level

$540 – Buyers – 1:0*, -13.83% From Current Price Level

$535 – Buyers – 3.8:0*, -14.63% From Current Price Level

$530 – Buyers – 2.19:1, 15.42% From Current Price Level

$525 – Buyers – 1.84:1, -16.22% From Current Price Level

$520 – Buyers – 1.26:1, -17.02% From Current Price Level

$515 – Buyers – 1.15:1, -17.82% From Current Price Level

$510 – Sellers – 1.31:1, -18.61% From Current Price Level

$505 – Sellers – 1.5:1, -19.41% From Current Price Level

$500 – Buyers – 1.22:1, -20.21% From Current Price Level

$496 – Buyers – 1.24:1, -20.85% From Current Price Level

$492 – Sellers – 1.30:1, -21.49% From Current Price Level

$488 – Buyers – 10:1, -22.13% From Current Price Level

$484 – Buyers – 1.5:1, -22.76% From Current Price Level

$480 – Buyers – 1.10:1, -23.4% From Current Price Level

$476 – Buyers – 1.4:1, -24.04% From Current Price Level

$472 – Buyers – 2.29:1, -24.68% From Current Price Level

$468 – Sellers – 1.03:1, -25.32% From Current Price Level

$464 – Sellers – 1.10:1, -25.96% From Current Price Level

$460 – NULL – 0:0*, -26.59% From Current Price Level

$456 – Buyers – 1.85:1, -27.23% From Current Price Level

$452 – Buyers – 4.7:0*, -27.87% From Current Price Level

$448 – Sellers – 1.7:1, -28.51% From Current Price Level

$444 – Sellers – 3.11:1, -29.15% From Current Price Level

$440 – Sellers – 1.77:1, -29.79% From Current Price Level

$436 – NULL – 0:0*, -30.42% From Current Price Level

$432 – Buyers – 1.6:0*, -31.06% From Current Price Level

$428 – Sellers – 4.8:0*, 31.7% From Current Price Level

$424 – NULL – 0:0*, -32.34% From Current Price Level

$420 – Buyers – 1.33:1, -32.98% From Current Price Level

$416 – NULL – 0:0*, -33.62% From Current Price Level

$412 – Sellers – 3.6:0*, -34.25% From Current Price Level

$408 – NULL – 0:0*, -34.89% From Current Price Level

Price Level:Volume Sentiment Analysis For IWM, The iShares Russell 2000 ETF

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF just set a new all-time high after their last one came one month ago, as small cap names have continued to climb in the new year.

Their Bollinger Bands also look primed to expand soon, indicating heightened volatility on the horizon which will prove interesting in the coming weeks based on the catalysts mentioned in the first section, particularly seeing how they move-in relation to DIA, the blue chip index.

While their primary support levels are all currently NULL or Buyer dominated due to price extremes, watch for dilution of wider ratios in the coming weeks & assess strength/weakness according to them.

$260 – NULL – 0:0*, -0.09% From Current Price Level – All-Time High & Current Price Level**

$256 – NULL – 0:0*, -1.63% From Current Price Level

$252 – NULL – 0:0*, -3.16% From Current Price Level – 10 Day Moving Average*

$248 – Buyers – 4.67:1, -4.7% From Current Price Level

$244 – Buyers – 1.32:1, -6.24% From Current Price Level – 50 Day Moving Average*

$240 – Buyers – 1.22:1, -7.77% From Current Price Level

$236 – Buyers – 1.57:1, -9.31% From Current Price Level

$232 – Buyers – 1.19:1, -10.85% From Current Price Level

$228 – Sellers – 2.79:1, -12.39% From Current Price Level

$224 – Buyers – 1.59:1, -13.92% From Current Price Level

$220 – Buyers – 1.19:1, -15.46% From Current Price Level

$216 – Buyers – 1.25:1, -17% From Current Price Level

$212 – Sellers – 1.13:1, -18.53% From Current Price Level

$208 – Buyers – 1.45:1, -20.07% From Current Price Level

$204 – Buyers – 1.17:1, -21.61% From Current Price Level

$200 – Buyers – 1.19:1, -23.14% From Current Price Level

$198 – Buyers -1.02:1, -23.91% From Current Price Level

$196 – Sellers – 1.48:1, -24.68% From Current Price Level

$194 – Buyers – 2.31:1, -25.45% From Current Price Level

$192 – Buyers – 2.05:1, -26.22% From Current Price Level

$190 – Sellers – 1.46:1, -26.99% From Current Price Level

$188 – Sellers – 1.93:1, -27.76% From Current Price Level

$186 – Buyers – 1.12:1, -28.52% From Current Price Level

$184 – Buyers – 1.67:1, -29.29% From Current Price Level

$182 – Buyers – 1.64:1, -30.06% From Current Price Level

$180 – Buyers – 1.44:1, -30.83% From Current Price Level

$178 – Sellers – 1.56:1, -31.6% From Current Price Level

$176 – Sellers – 8.75:1, -32.37% From Current Price Level

$174 – Buyers – 1.86:1, -33.14% From Current Price Level

$172 – Buyers – 1.41:1, -30.9% From Current Price Level

$170 – Even – 1:1, -34.67% From Current Price Level

$168 – Buyers – 2:1, -35.44% From Current Price Level

$166 – Sellers – 2.3:1, -36.21% From Current Price Level

$164 – Sellers – 1.07:1, -36.98% From Current Price Level

$162 – Sellers – 3:1, -37.75% From Current Price Level

$160 – Buyers – 1.67:1, -38.52% From Current Price Level

$158 – Buyers – 1.1:1, -39.28% From Current Price Level

Price Level:Volume Sentiment Analysis For DIA, The SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF

DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF is just off of all-time highs, but has had the most robust volumes in the first full trading week of the year (still below average).

While the blue chip index has remained resilient due to the buy-and-hold nature of its components, it should be noted that their first support levels is in a Seller zone historically.

While expectations say Buy-and-Hold prevails, any meaningful decline (particularly for SPY or QQQ) may result in position liquidation.

The charts below can be useful in navigating the road ahead for DIA near these all-time high levels.

$496 – NULL – 0:0*, +0.2% From Current Price Level – All Time High*

$492 – NULL – 0:0*, -0.61% From Current Price Level – Current Price Level*

$488 – NULL – 0:0*, -1.42% From Current Price Level – 10 Day Moving Average*

$484 – NULL – 0:0*, -2.23% From Current Price Level

$480 – Buyers – 0.8:0*, -3.03% From Current Price Level

$476 – Buyers – 0.8:0*, -3.84% From Current Price Level – 50 Day Moving Average*

$472 – Buyers – 1.19:1, -4.65% From Current Price Level

$468 – Buyers – 1.5:1, -5.46% From Current Price Level

$464 – Sellers – 1.17:1, -6.27% From Current Price Level

$460 – Buyers – 7:1, -7.07% From Current Price Level

$456 – Sellers – 1.5:1, -7.88% From Current Price Level

$452 – Sellers – 10.73:1, -8.69% From Current Price Level

$448 – Sellers – 6.33:1, -9.5% From Current Price Level

$444 – Buyers – 2.27:1, -10.31% From Current Price Level – 200 Day Moving Averge*

$440 – Buyers – 1.5:1, -11.11% From Current Price Level

$436 – Sellers – 1.46:1, -11.92% From Current Price Level

$432 – Buyers – 1.29:1, -12.73% From Current Price Level

$428 – Buyers – 2.38:1, -13.54% From Current Price Level

$424 – Buyers – 1.11:1, -14.35% From Current Price Level

$420 – Buyers – 2.53:1, -15.15% From Current Price Level

$416 – Sellers – 1.26:1, -15.96% From Current Price Level

$412 – Buyers – 1.58:1, -16.77% From Current Price Level

$408 – Sellers – 2.73:1, -17.58% From Current Price Level

$404 – Buyers – 1.88:1, -18.39% From Current Price Level

$400 – Buyers – 2.83:1, -19.2% From Current Price Level

$396 – Buyers – 1.67:1, -20% From Current Price Level

$392 – Sellers – 2:1, -20.81% From Current Price Level

$388 – Buyers – 2.11:1, -21.62% From Current Price Level

$384 – Buyers – 2.22:1, -22.43% From Current Price Level

$380 – Sellers – 2.85:1, -23.24% From Current Price Level

$376 – Sellers – 1.04:1, -24.04% From Current Price Level

$372 – Even – 1:1, -24.85% From Current Price Level

$368 – Buyers – 1.11:1, -25.66% From Current Price Level

$364 – Buyers – 1.65:1, -26.47% From Current Price Level

$360 – Buyers – 1.6:1, -27.28% From Current Price Level

$360 – Buyers – 1.6:1, -28.08% From Current Price Level

$356 – Even – 1:1, -28.89% From Current Price Level

$352 – Buyers – 0.8:0*, -28.89% From Current Price Level

$348 – Sellers – 1.15:1, -29.7% From Current Price Level

$344 – Buyers – 0.4:0*, -30.51% From Current Price Level

$340 – Buyers – 12:1, -31.32% From Current Price Level

$336 – Buyers – 1.19:1, -32.12% From Current Price Level

$332 -Buyers – 1.38:1, -32.93% From Current Price Level

$328 – Buyers – 1.65:1, -33.74% From Current Price Level

$324 – Buyers – 1.90:1, -34.55% From Current Price Level

$320 – Even – 1:1*, -35.36% From Current Price Level

$316 – Buyers – 1.05:1, -36.16% From Current Price Level

$312 – Sellers – 1.45:1, -36.97% From Current Price Level

$308 – Buyers – 1.25:1, -37.78% From Current Price Level

$304 – Sellers – 1.08:1, -38.59% From Current Price Level

$300 – Sellers – 1.44:1, -39.4% From Current Price Level

$296 – Buyers – 1.92:1, -40.2% From Current Price Level

$292 – Sellers – 1.5:1, -41.01% From Current Price Level

$288 – Sellers – 1.19:1, -41.82% From Current Price Level

$284 – Sellers – 2.92:1, -42.63% From Current Price Level

$280 – Sellers – 1.83:1, -43.44% From Current Price Level

$276 – Sellers – 1.67:1, -44.24% From Current Price Level

$272 – Sellers – 1.6:0*, -45.05% From Current Price Level

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM OR DIA AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF fell -1.03% last week, while the VIX closed at 14.51, indicating an implied one day move range of +/-0.91% & an implied one month move range of +/-4.19%. (Please note that all charts are per Friday 1/2/26 when the note was begun, as travel & illness prevented timely publishing)

Their RSI is just above the neutral 50 level & sits currently at 52.85, while their MACD is bearish.

Volumes were -7.57% lower than the prior year’s average (66,880,000 vs. 72,361,230), which when accounting for the fact that it was a shortened holiday week signals that there was quite a bit more negative sentiment than the week prior.

Monday the week began with a note of uncertainty & limited participation, when a low-to-average volume session resulted in a decline & a doji candle on the day, and a wait & see approach to the final week of the year set in.

Tuesday too continued this trend, with even less volume and a smaller range on the doji candle.

Wednesday year end profits were taken when a lower open caused a collapse throughout the day, leading SPY to close -0.74% down on the day heading into 2026 on the second highest volume of the week, while simultaneously breaking down & closing below the support of the 10 day moving average.

Thursday was New Year’s Day so markets were not open, causing back-to-back four session weeks.

Friday the first trading session of the year opened on a gap up, tested higher, but profits taking set in early & the support of the 10 DMA faltered again, causing the session to close below its open.

Heading into a new week, there will be a lot of focus on employment data, as well as final PMI data & the U.S. Trade Deficit, and there’s not much in terms of major market moving earnings reports.

With that said, the upside case revolves around breaking above the 10 DMA with strong volumes & hoping that market participants continue to pile in to force a run at SPY’s all-time high.

The consolidation case looks a lot like the end of the week did, with SPY oscillating around the 10 DMA until an upside or downside catalyst forces it to move in one direction or another.

Should this happen keep an eye on the 10 DMA which is climbing higher towards SPY’s price.

To the downside, SPY closed the week just above a historic Seller zone from the past ~3 years ($675-679.99).

While they are currently in a strong Buyer zone, they are also near a market extreme & have not seen much downside testing at these price levels, making that ratio prime to be diluted, which would also signal a breakdown of the support of the 50 day moving average.

If this happens, the $671.96/share level will be imperative, as if it too breaks down then SPY’s next two support levels reside in Seller zones historically, which may lead to a broader selloff that possibly sees that $648.93/share level break down.

SPY has support at the $682.94 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 6.23:1), $677.10 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.28:1), $671.96 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.4:1) & $659.26/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.55:1) price levels, with resistance at the $684.85 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 6.23:1), $687.67 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.4:0*) & $691.66/share (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF declined -1.73% last week, as the tech-heavy index was the least favored of the major four indexes.

Their RSI is trending down below the 50 Mark & currently is at 47.23, while their MACD is bearish.

Volumes were -15.62% below the prior year’s average (41,100,000 vs. 48,710,996), which shows that folks weren’t overly eager to sell, but given each day’s session resulted in declines it does not paint a rosy picture.

QQQ’s week looked very similar to SPY’s, leading off Monday with a low volume gap down session that closed as a doji, indicating a lack of enthusiasm & more of a wait & see approach heading into the holiday shortened week.

Tuesday looked the same, with a lower volume gap down open that amounted to market participants taking a wait & see approach heading into 2026.

Wednesday the year’s final session produced further declines on higher volume, signaling that there was signs of fear creeping into the market for the tech-heavy index.

Friday 2026 began with a decline of -0.19% for QQQ following the breakdown of their 10 day moving average’s support on Wednesday, heading into the weekend & closing below it for a second straight day.

Heading into this week there will be a focus to the upside on the $624.06-625.52/share zone, the latter of which is the most recent resistance level that occurs in a series of three consecutive inabilities for QQQ to break higher.

Should those two levels break down, $628.40/share is the next highest important resistance level, gatekeeping for the all-time high of $636.19/share which occurred in late October of 2025.

In order to break above the ATH there will need to be increased advancing volume that is sustainable in order to prove that there is solid belief behind the strength of the tech-heavy index.

The consolidation case looks similar to what we’ve been seeing now for the past couple of months, with QQQ oscillating around the 10 & 50 day moving averages awaiting an upside or downside catalyst.

This looks likely given how for months now it has been occurring & there are lower highs being made, while lows have been somewhat all over the place.

To the downside, watch the $612.39/share level, as should that break down there are two more Buyer dominated zones historically speaking below it, but no support levels in them, which makes it all the more likely that we see tests of the next three support levels (outlined below).

Should these break down the big test that all eyes will need to be on is the $579.99/share range, as should that break down we may see further downside action.

QQQ has support at the $612.39 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.04:1), $599.51 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.45:1), $597.90 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.45:1) & $589.37/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.31:1) price levels, with resistance at the $615.74 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.22:1), $618.15 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.22:1), $624.06 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.23:1) & $625.52/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.75:1) price levels.

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF dropped -1.05% for the week, as the small cap index had the second worst week of the four majors.

Their RSI just crossed above the neutral 50-mark & is currently at 50.72, while their MACD is bearish.

Volumes were -13.89% lower than the prior year’s average (30,455,000 vs. 35,366,494), indicating that there was a bit of selling with caution & somewhat a wait-and-see approach to the year end/new year.

Monday IWM opened lower & declined into weak volume -0.61%, forming a gravestone doji, signaling that there would be more weakness into the end of 2025.

Tuesday that trend continued, temporarily opening higher, but sinking lower on the lowest volume session of the week, where for the second straight day the resistance of the 10 day moving average walked IWM lower.

Wednesday featured more of the same on the last trading day of 2025, but with more volume as folks were either quick to take profits for the year off of the table & or were beginning to become more skittish.

Friday the new year kicked off with a bang for IWM, as they opened higher, tested lower, but for a second consecutive session the strength of support of the 50 day moving average held up & pushed IWM higher to close +1.06% for the day.

Heading into the new week, the upside case for IWM revolves around whether or not the medium-term trendline (50 DMA)’s support can outmatch the resistance of the short-term trendline (10 DMA).

If it can, watch the $251.92/share level for clues as to whether a bearish head & shoulders pattern has emerged, or if there may be a run at their all-time high.

The consolidation case features more oscillations between/around the 10 & 50 DMA’s, awaiting an upside or downside catalyst to start a fresh trend.

The downside case shows lots of support levels below that have strong historic Buyer:Seller sentiment, but any breakdown in SPY, QQQ or DIA may trigger outflows from IWM, but there are numerous support levels to fall back onto for the small cap index.

IWM has support at the $247.64 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.32:1), $245.55 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.32:1), $245.46 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.32:1) & $239.96/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.57:1) price levels, with resistance at the $250.21 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 4.67:1), $251.92 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 4.67:1) & $257.34/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF dipped -0.7% for the week, faring the strongest of the major index ETFs, as the blue chip names prevailed.

Their RSI is at 56.53 trending higher, while their MACD is bearish.

Volumes were -2.47% lower than the previous year’s average (4,177,500 vs. 4,283,347), mostly on account of Friday’s advancing session.

Monday the week began with DIA opening lower, testing a bit to the upside & a bit to the downside, but closing down -0.5% on low volume.

Tuesday opened just higher, before proceeding to sink lower to test the support of the 10 day moving average which held up.

Wednesday saw DIA open slightly higher, only to retreat throughout the session & close below the 10 day moving average on a third straight day of declines with lackluster volume, indicating a sense of complacency among investors in the blue chip index.

Friday made for an interesting start to the new year for DIA, as they opened higher, retraced to Wednesday’s low & then kept declining, before powering higher on high volume to close +0.64% for the first day of the year.

Part of that high volume is explained by the wide range of pricing that DIA traded at for the day, but DIA managed to close just above the support of the 10 DMA.

That support is going to be what the base upside case is built upon, as if it holds up & manages to pump DIA higher their only resistance level is their all-time high, which will have a support levels chasing the price at, increasing the odds of a new ATH occuring.

This will also require more advancing volume to be treated as sustainable price gains.

The consolidation case involves DIA oscillating around the 10 day moving average, awaiting an upside or downside catalyst.

To the downside, there is a lot of Buyer sentiment in the price zones below DIA’s closing price for Friday, which is to be expected given its the blue chip index just below its all-time high.

The primary downside target here will be the 50 DMA & to see how strong it provides support against a decline.

The reason being is that should it break down & DIA decline through it, the $468.61/share level is then the gatekeeper to a Seller zone ($464-467.99/share), and aside from $463.27/share, there are no other support levels offering historic Buyer sentiment protecting from further declines when DIA crosses into three consecutive Seller oriented zones ($448-459.99/share).

The table below offers more insight into historic volume sentiment around DIA.

DIA has support at the $483.47 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.8:0*), $482.73 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.8:0*), $478.74 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.8:0*) & $474.90/share (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.19:1) price levels, with resistance at the $488.60/share (ALl-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

The Week Ahead

Monday the first week of the year begins with ISM Manufacturing Index data at 10 am & there are no earnings reports scheduled for release.

Fed President Barkin speaks on Tuesday at 8 am before S&P Final US Services PMI data comes out at 9:45 am.

AngioDynamics reports earnings before Tuesday’s open, before AAR & Penguin Solutions report after the closing bell.

Wednesday morning begins with ADP Employment data at 8:30 am, followed by ISM Services Index, Job Openings & U.S. Factory Orders data at 10 am.

Albertsons, Apogee Enterprises, Cal-Maine Foods, MSC Industrial & UniFirst all report earnings before Wednesday’s open, before Constellation Brands, Applied Digital, AZZ, Jefferies & PriceSmart report following the session’s close.

Initial Jobless Claims, U.S. Trade Deficit & U.S. Productivity data come out Thursday at 8:30 am, before U.S. Consumer Credit data comes out at 3pm.

Thursday opens with Acuity, Commercial Metals, Helen of Troy, Lindsay, Neogen, RPM, Simply Good Foods & TD Synnex reporting earnings, followed by Greenbrier & WD-40 after the closing bell.

Friday the week winds down with U.S. Employment Report data at 8:30 am, before U.S. Unemployment Rate, U.S. Hourly Wages, U.S. Hourly Wages Year-over-Year, U.S. Housing Starts & UMich Consumer Sentiment data come out at 9:45 am & Fed President Barkin speaks at 1:35 pm.

Conagra, Lamb Weston, Paychex & Winnebago all report earnings Friday morning before the opening bell.

See you back here next week!

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM OR DIA AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF advanced 1.42% this past week, faring the strongest of the four majors, while the VIX closed the week out at 13.6, indicating an implied one day move range of +/-0.86% & a one month implied move range of +/-3.93%.

Their RSI has curled over towards the neutral 50 mark & currently sits at 61.76, while their MACD is bullish, but looking set to dolphin-dive back bearishly through the signal line in the coming week.

Volumes were -26.64% lower than the prior year’s average levels (53,125,000 vs. 72,414,800), which doesn’t paint a particularly rosy picture given that three of the four sessions were advancing.

Monday opened on a gap up, but declined to re-test the support of the 10 day moving average, which held up, forcing prices higher & the session closed as a gravestone doji.

While the volume was the highest of the week & it did indicate that there would be short-term advances in the coming week (which were expected given it was in the run up to Christmas), it was sub-par compared to the rest of the year, which lacks medium-to-long-term conviction behind the new all-time high set Friday.

Tuesday opened just below Monday’s opening price & ran higher, but on thin volume, ultimately advancing +0.46% higher day-over-day & forming a bullish engulfing pattern.

Wednesday’s shortened session opened $0.01 lower than Tuesday’s & ran higher, but on even weaker volume than the first two days of the week (adjusted for the shortened week).

Thursday the market was closed for the Christmas holiday.

Friday began to show the waning enthusiasm, as a higher open was unable to go anywhere, forming a doji star & a day-over-day decline of -0.01% on the week’s second weakest volume (only slightly above that of the shortened Wednesday session).

While much of this can be attributed to the holiday the day prior & market participants taking vacation time etc… it began to show weakness after a week of holiday enthusiasm.

Heading into another short week the upside case for SPY to continue higher & setting new all-time highs continues to remain the same, without solid, consistent increased volume DIA’s gains will come under more & more scrutiny.

The fact that it was a holiday week provides some excuse for the waning participation of last week, and will likely continue into this upcoming one, but it doesn’t paint a particularly rosy picture for further upside gains without some major catalyst.

The good news is that due to the quiet week there are limited downside catalysts on the near-term horizon.

For the consolidation case, which is the most likely one, expect to see prices stay within the range of last week’s trading, at lowest testing the support of the 10 day moving average while we await the next upside/downside catalyst.

Speaking of the 10 DMA, notice that it has flattened out while the 50 DMA continues higher & they’re becoming closer together; keep an eye out for a bearish crossover there as based on how SPY has stalled out around this $690/share level yet again there may be steeper declines compared to the last time they crossed over.

While the declines will lead to the crossover, this time there may be added enthusiasm behind the selloff based on how sheepish market participants have become of recent.

To the downside, the next two support levels look easy to be broken through based on profit taking, making the 10 DMA’s support the real spot to be eyeing.

Should it break down, expect to see prices test the 50 DMA & likely pass through them, leading to the aforementioned 10 & 50 DMA bearish crossover.

In the event of this, eyes should go to the $659.26/share support level, as it resides in a Seller dominated zone for the past ~3 years, and sits above another Seller zone (see table below), which would likely lead to a retest of the $648.93/share level, assuming there is no upside catalyst.

QQQ in the next section also may lend clues to what happens next to SPY given how closely they trade to one another.

SPY has support at the $687.67 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $682.94 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $681.33 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $675.50/share (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels, with resistance at the $691.66/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF gained +1.11% on the week, as the tech-heavy index was the third favorite of the four major index ETFs.

Their RSI has also curled over bearishly towards the neutral 50 level & sits at 57.04 Per Friday’s close, while their MACD is bullish, but looks set to dolphin back through the signal line either this week or next.

Volumes were -32.92% lower than the prior year’s average (32,622,500 vs. 48,631,360), in a similar manner to SPY’s over the shortened holiday week day-over-day.

Monday opened on a gap higher, attempted to climb, but ultimately sank to close lower than the open on the week’s strongest volume to close as a spinning top candle, indicating uncertainty with a tint of bearishness.

Tuesday opened lower, but was able to rally throughout the day to close higher, but on lighter volume than Monday’s already low level.

Wednesday opened lower, but the holiday spirit was in full force & QQQ climbed higher, but closed on by far the lowest volume of the week, indicating that despite the half-day there was waning enthusiasm & participation in the market for the tech-heavy index.

Friday also mirrored SPY’s performance, where a doji star emerged on a daily decline of -0.01% on extremely light volume for a full session, all indicating waning enthusiasm among market participants.

Moving into a new week, the upside for QQQ hinges around being able to break out & above the $624.06/share level, with the next test being $628.40/share before making a run at the all-time high.

Again, like SPY & as echoed in months past, there will need to be a sustained uptick in advancing volume, as current conditions show a bit more uncertainty & some profits being taken before there can be any form of certainty behind a new all-time high, especially given how contracted daily candles have become in the past month vs. the last.

For the consolidation case, expect to see a closing of the window created by Monday’s gap up, followed by oscillations around the 10 & 50 day moving averages while we await an upside or downside catalyst.

The 10 & 50 day moving averages have smoothed out while also bearishly crossing one another, making a downside move likely more pronounced & indicating that they’ll break down.

Should that occur, the $597.90 & $599.51/share support levels are in a Seller zone based on the past year, turning attention to the $589.37/share support level to stop bleeding should things progress that far.

QQQ has support at the $614.86 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.17:1), $614.69 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.17:1), $612.39 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.17:1) & $599.51/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.17:1) price levels, with resistance at the $624.06 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $628.40 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $636.19/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF added only +0.24% for the week, as the small cap index was the least favored of the major four index ETFs.

Their RSI is trending down towards the neutral 50 level, currently at 55.35, while their MACD remains bearish, as it has for the past couple of weeks.

Volumes were -33.47% lower than the prior year’s average (23,505,000 vs. 35,332,280), indicating some level of complacency given IWM straddled the 10 day moving average all week, treating the short-term moving average as a balance beam.

Monday IWM opened on a gap up, made a run at the $255/share level, temporarily breaking above it, but closed below it for a +1.11% advance on the day on the week’s highest volume.

Tuesday opened near the low end of Monday’s range & mimicked Friday’s doji candle that SPY & QQQ sported for the week, providing potential insight into what we’ll see next week/the following given that next week is also a shortened holiday week.

Wednesday opened in-line with the 10 DMA’s support, floating just above it, before temporarily breaking down below it but managing to rally back higher to close +0.25% on the day.

Despite the half-day, Wednesday’s volume was eclipsed by each other session of the year’s volume, which casts a shade of doubt on the strength of the short-term trendline.

Friday opened lower & continued to decline, temporarily breaking down the support of the 10 DMA, but managed to rally higher to close above it.

Friday also had extrodinarily low volume compared to the rest of the year, indicating that there is still quite a bit of uncertainty among market participants.

For the upside case, $251.92/share will need to be broken above before there can be any moves towards the all-time high, which aren’t impossible given the January effect on small-cap names, but should broader markets decline expect IWM to follow suit.

The consolidation case involves oscillating around the 10 day moving average as we await an upside or downside catalyst.

To the downside, the 10 day moving average does not look particularly strong as a support level at the moment, which should shift attention to whether or not the 50 DMA is stronger, neither of which have much data for reference in terms of volume sentiment due to the extreme nature of their price.

However, something emerging on the chart is the appearance of a bearish head & shoulders pattern, which will be something to monitor given that the trough between the left shoulder & head dips down to $228.13/share.

IWM has support at the $251.05 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $247.64 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $246.70 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $245.55/share (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels, with resistance at the $251.92 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $257.34/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF gained +1.22% for the week, having the second strongest weekly performance.

Their RSI has plateaued & flatlined at 64.04, while their MACD is still bullish, but looking set to roll over bearish in the coming week or two (shortened week may impact this).

Volumes were -30.81% lower than the prior year’s average (2,952,500 vs. 4,267,440), which sounds alarm bells when you consider that all four sessions were advancing (sans Friday’s +0.00% returns).

Monday opened up straddling the 10 day moving average’s support, climbed higher towards the $485 level, but fell short on the day on the week’s highest volume.

Tuesday this trend continued, opening just above the 10 DMA & climbing +0.16% on the day on slightly lower volume & still closing below $485 despite temporarily breaking out above it, signaling that there is a lack of conviction of DIA above that level.

Wednesday opened slightly lower, but the Christmas spirit was alive & well rocketing DIA higher +0.57% on the day, but volume was still very low even when taking the holiday half day into consideration.

Friday the week closed on a more somber note, where low volumes continued, albeit slightly higher than Wednesday’s & a doji star formation formed, indicating that there is uncertainty & perhaps some unleashed volatility on the horizon as market participants become on edge as we near DIA’s all-time high again.

Heading into the new week the upside case involves breaking out above the all-time high, which is the only resistance level.

This, just like the cases above will require volume enhancements that are proven with time in order to be believable.

In the consolidation case, expect to see DIA oscillating around the 10 day moving average as we await a catalyst to the upside or downside.

To the downside, should a double top emerge & force prices lower the 50 day moving average is the first place to look, as it will continue climbing higher & resides in “no man’s land” in terms of volume sentiment.

If that breaks down $463.27/share is the next stop in terms of major tests, and $452.85/share should be watched closely if it is approached as it resides in a Seller zone historically.

DIA has support at the $483.05 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $482.73 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $478.73 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $473.27/share (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels, with resistance at the $488.60/share (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

The Week Ahead

Pending Home Sales Data comes out at 10 am on Monday & there are no noteworthy earnings reports due for release.

Tuesday morning brings us S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index (20 Cities) data at 9 am, followed by Chicago Business Baromter (PMI) data at 9:45 am & the Minutes of the December FOMC Meeting at 2 pm & there are no noteworthy earnings reports scheduled.

Initial Jobless Claims data is set for release at 8:30 am on Wednesday, there will be no noteworthy earnings reports & the stock market keeps regular hours, while the bond market will close at 2pm.

Thursday if New Year’s Day & there is no economic data, nor earnings reports scheduled; Happy New Year!

There is no major economic data set for release on Friday, nor are there any earnings reports.

See you back here next week!

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM OR DIA AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***

This is the 1,000th post since I took down the old OptimizedValue.xyz & re-launched it on 4/20/2020, and I want to thank everyone who’s read my content, offered critiques, inspired & encouraged me along the way!

I first built this in December of 2016, in an effort to tinker with web development/optimization concepts to help me with my day job, as well as a way to put the things I was learning about in my spare time about stocks & markets into writing to increase my understanding of new concepts.

The website has always looked the same, but the content has evolved dramatically, as has my understanding of things.

What began as a fundamentals focused Saturday/Sunday publication that somewhat reeked of consulting deck has morphed into what you see today, and will continue to evolve.

I’ve been getting a good chuckle out of reading through some of the original posts on the Wayback Machine (archive.org), as well as even the oldest ones that are on this version of the site since the rebuild from scratch; it’s been a long 9 years.

Since the rebuild it’s been 2,061 days (https://timeanddate.com is a handy tool), the weekend posts have become focused on macro charts & the week ahead in earnings & economic data announcements, as well as the same old individual name reports for stocks & ETFs (far less frequent, admittedly, but with a focus on fundamentals & technicals), as well as the Daily VolTech report, which outlines S&P 500 components, ETFs & general Stocks ranked based on technical & volume weighted metrics.

We all have interests, thoughts & ideas, but if we don’t put our pen to paper that’s often all that they remain.

It’s not easy putting yourself out there like that (especially when it’s just a time consuming hobby in the initial stages), but it leads to digging deeper into concepts, pushing yourself to learn more & inspires the confidence to continue forward, even when you may not know much (or in the case here, anything really) about your topic of choice.

My point (and I do have one), is that I hope that if you’re reading this & have thought about doing something like this (or even if it never crossed your mind) that in 2026 you mark your beginning, as you’ll only grow your knowledge, improve how you communicate/articulate yourself & get to meet some cool folks & have fun conversations along the way.

Nine years ago it lead to me being able to speak to brokers/industry folks about my ideas on investments at happy hour who had every good reason to brush me off, that evolved into pursuing (still actively) the CMT designation, submitting a paper on something I built to contend for the Charles Dow Award, which lead to me filing a provisional patent on the tool/concept, which inspired the confidence to bring other ideas I’d been sitting on for years to the USPTO, all while meeting cool new folks & reconnecting with old childhood friends/relatives… it’s been a wild ride that I didn’t see coming for sure.

If you read this, I hope it inspires you to take the plunge with whatever your hobby or idea is, put it to paper & if appropriate (obviously don’t give away the recipes to your IP/secret sauce) get it in front of an audience for feedback; you won’t be disappointed & you have no idea where it may take you, while also holding you accountable for your own growth.

Otherwise, it’s just going to sit there for another year & maybe even be forgotten about, which would really be a waste of a good thought…

Thanks again to all who’ve helped me along the way to get here & to the ~9,800 readers/viewers who stopped by in 2025 to date!

Post 1,001 will be available tonight in the Daily VolTech segment, see you back here at 2,000!

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF added +0.34% last week, while the VIX closed the week at 15.41, indicating an implied one day move range of +/- 0.97% & an implied one month move range of +/-4.45%.

This note was delayed due to holiday obligations over this past weekend, but will resume normal schedule (also, note that price labels are not included in these charts like normal, in a rush effort to get them all in-time to be relevant to Friday’s close).

Their RSI is relatively flat at 60.16, while their MACD is bullish, but also beginning to flatten after the week of relative consolidation.

Volumes were -8.91% lower than the prior year’s average (64,520,000 vs. 70,831,080), signaling a cooling off from weeks prior of heightened volume.

Monday opened the week up on a gap down, but was able to trudge higher throughout the session & despite closing below its daily high, SPY did manage to close higher than it opened.

Volume was higher than the previous Friday’s advancing session though, indicating that there was a little bit of profit taking from short-term gains.

Tuesday opened on a gap higher at $681.92 & floated just above the $680/share level, ultimately closing the day as a doji, indicating that there was a hint of uncertainty in the air & that market participants found that area to be a safe valuation for SPY.

Tuesday’s volumes were slightly higher than Monday’s, but still not indicative of any true change in sentiment, as outlined by the resulting candlestick.

Things got a little more optimistic on Wednesday, when SPY opened lower, tested in the sub-$680 range momentarily, before powering higher to close +0.35%, which managed to form a bullish engulfing pattern with the prior day’s doji.

However, what made the move more interesting is that it was the most bullish session of the week, yet occurred on the lightest volume, indicating that there was limited faith behind the move higher & there was still an air of extreme caution.

Thursday confirmed this when a gap higher open saw SPY retrace over halfway through Wednesday’s real-body range as short-term profit taking struck again, but the day managed to rally back to squeeze higher to close just below its opening price into a resulting dragonfly doji, but the volume behind all of the movement lacked conviction.

Friday the week closed down with a relatively flat open that made a run at the $690/share level, but again, short-term profit taking struck & the session wound up advancing only +0.19% & forming a gravestone doji on the highest volume of the week.

That paints a bleak outlook picture given that there was a bit of profit taking happening heading into the weekend, despite the day’s overall advance.

Heading into the new week, the upside story remains the same as last week’s note & many prior; in order to see a meaningful continued climb higher we will need to see more volume behind advancing sessions, with less profit taking being indicated by the upper shadows of candles such as Friday’s.

The consolidation case also remains similar, as SPY will likely oscillate around the 10 DMA, with any downside movement making it oscillated between the 10 & 50 DMA’s awaiting an upside/downside catalyst, such as Wednesday’s FOMC decision, or earnings reports such as Oracle’s, which is also Wednesday (see The Week Ahead below).

To the downside, the table below can be useful to assess volume sentiment at their support levels using data from the past ~3 years, but if the 10 DMA’s support breaks down, all eyes should go to the 50 DMA for support.

In the event that that breaks down, the $661.21/share level is the gatekeeper to back-to-back Seller oriented price zones, which could spell bigger trouble for SPY as the $653.17 & $650.85/share support levels reside in them, and further declines could follow their breakdown.

It is also worth considering that there may be a double top emerging, where the all-time high was unable to be broken through, triggering further declines.

SPY has support at the $684.96 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $680.49 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $673.95 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.5:1) & $672.91/share (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.5:1) price levels, with resistance at the $688.39 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $689.70/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF advanced +1.01%, as the tech heavy index fared the strongest of the four majors.

Their RSI is at 59.39 & flattening, but still climbing, while their MACD is bullish, but also signaling a potential flattening is on the horizon.

Volumes were +2.65% higher than the prior year’s average levels (48,804,000 vs. 47,542,360), which is presenting that market participants are treating the tech-heavy index with a wait & see attitude in the near-term.

Monday the week began similar to SPY’s, with a gap down open to $617.17 that managed to trudge higher throughout the session, but on the week’s lowest volumes, indicating that there was not strong sentiment coming from the bulls.

Tuesday opened on a gap higher, tested lower, but ultimately managed to power above the $620/share level & close higher, but the spinning top candle spelled a message of caution for market participants as uncertainty was in the air & the high level of volume for the week expresses short-term profits were taken.

Wednesday opened lower, but managed to turn higher after a brief retrace towards Tuesday’s low, and the close was +0.24% day-over-day, a true slow & steady approach to advancing higher.

Thursday opened on a gap higher, but bears rushed in to force the day lower, taking profits & forcing a declining day that temporarily broke below the $620/share level, but bulls managed to force prices higher to close down only -0.09% on the day.

However, the candle formed a hanging man in the wake of the advancing sessions higher, indicating bearishness began creeping steadily into the market & folks were becoming cautious.

Friday the week wound down with another ominous note, as a shooting star candle emerged on what was another highervolume session for the week, and despite it resulting in a day-over-day gain, the upper shadow indicates that market participants wanted to take their ball & begin heading home.

The upside case heading into a new week will require more sustainable elevated advancing volume levels, as well as less days like Friday where a strong upper shadow indicates that there was a loss of upside appetite, as QQQ is still near its all-time high.

The consolidation case is also similar to last week’s, where QQQ may straddle the 10 DMA & in the event of a slight downside move begin to oscillate between it & the 50 DMA, while awaiting an upside or downside catalyst.

The downside case is also similar week-over-week, as QQQ did not climb incredibly higher.

If the 10 DMA breaks down, look to the 50 DMA for support & should that break down there may be trouble brewing, as the $598.67 next support level resides in a price zone that is histoically Seller-centric over the past year & while the next support level ($590.13/share) resides in a Buyer zone, in the event of a breakdown the following Seller zone leads to the $580.74/share support level.

That will need to hold up to avoid seeing further declines for QQQ.

QQQ has support at the $624.86 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $618.10 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $613.18 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.17:1) & $611.70/share (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.17:1) price levels, with resistance at the $628.92 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $637.01/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF climbed +0.81% last week, having the second strongest week of ht major index ETFs.

Their RSI is heading down after advancing all week following Friday’s profit taking session that could not break above its all-time high set the day before, and their MACD is bullish & extending higher but signaling signs of exhaustion.

Volumes were +2.4% higher than the prior year’s average (35,780,000 vs. 34,940,200), which is not indicative of any particularly strong sentiment, given that the volumes of the previous year have been better than the prior year, but still lackluster compared to year’s prior.

Monday began IWM’s week on decent volume, but a gap down & gravestone doji, which normally indicates impending weakness.

However Tuesday opened on a gap up, but doubled down on the weak sentiment as it formed a bearish engulfing pattern with Monday’s candle, with the only point of doubt behind that indication was that it was on the week’s weakest volume.

Sure enough, Wednesday managed to open higher & take a run up towards the $250/share level, but was stopped just short; the volume behind the move, much like Tuesday’s was unconvincing in terms of long-term strength behind it.

Thursday opened slightly lower, but managed to continue the squeeze higher & rally its way up to a new all-time high (which disproved what we’d published last week re: IWM’s upside case, temporarily, but again, note the “squeeze”).

Friday confirmed the right to believe that this was not a strong move, as a lower open led to a brief rally that was unable to break above the new all-time high set on Thursday, which then led to a severe bout of profit taking on the week’s second highest volume.

Between the goal-line stand at $252.66/share back-to-back & the day’s bearish harami forming candle do not inspire much in terms of confidence in the near-term & hint at caution being taken by market participants.

With that said, the upside case continues on the same like all the other three majors, to see continued rallying higher there will need to be an uptick in volume, indicating that market participants are confident in the small cap index (and broader markets as a whole).

The consolidation case now is set to a new range within the range of Wednesday & Thursday’s candles, awaiting the arrival of the 10 DMA, as well as an upside or downside catalyst.

The downside case for IWM now becomes tricky as they’ve managed new all-time highs & are well above any historic Seller zones from the past 2-3 years.

They also have a nice potential support zone from the consolidation ranges of the past few months, as well as the 10 & 50 DMA’s there for support.

The $237.56/5 support levels & the $236.27/share support levels are areas to focus on though, as any breakdown that leads to those levels now leaves IWM on a balance beam above a historic Seller zone that contains no support levels, and may lead to larger declines from there.

Similar to SPY, a double top and or bearish head & shoulders pattern could be emerging over the coming month, which should be accounted for when assessing IWM’s strength/weakness.

IWM has support at the $248.48 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $247.50 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $246.38 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $243.96/share (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.19:1) price levels, with resistance at the $252.66/share (All-Time High, 2x Touch-Point, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF gained +0.6% for the week, as the blue chip index was out of favor, beating only the S&P 500 for the week.

Their RSI has flattened, sitting at 60.93, while their MACD is still bullish, but signaling signs of exhaustion.

Volumes were +16.47% higher than the prior year’s average (4,846,000 vs. 4,160,560), which does not necessarily paint a rosy picture given the daily distribution & the week’s performance.

Monday kicked off on a gap down, which attempted to run higher, but was stalled out when bears came rushing in to take profits & the day resulted in an inverted hammer candle, with volumes on the lower side of the week.

Tuesday opened higher, but spent the day straddling the $475/share level, forming a spinning top candle around it, indicating that there was uncertainty in the air.

Wednesday opened lower, but a surge of volume (highest of the week) was able to push DIA higher towards the $480/share level, but it closed the day justshot of it after temporarily breaking above it.

Thursday opened higher, tested higher, but was swiftly rejected & closed the day forming a doji star & signaled that folks were truly on the fence about the blue chip index, as also indicated by the low volume.

Friday confirmed teh bearish sentiment, opening lower, but testing higher & closing up +0.2% on the day, but the upper shadows of Thursday & Friday said DIA was running on fumes.

Heading into the week, the upside case remains the same, an increase in advancing volume is required to keep rallying to chase the all-time high.

Consolidation comes in the form of finding a range between Friday’s close & Wednesday’s low, while we await the 10 DMA to arrive & DIA will either oscillate around it & or an upside/downside catalyst will take it in a direction.

To the downside, should the 10 DMA be broken down through, the 50 DMA will likely be the next target of DIA.

Should that break down, there is downward momentum that may break down the $464.28/share level, leaving the $457.13/share level as the gatekeeper to the $452-455.99/share zone, which is Seller oriented & contains their next support levels, which could bring focus to the $447.99/share level, as well as the long-term trendline, the 200 Day moving average which lurks just below it.

DIA has support at the $479.79 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $475.17 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $469.63 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $468.90/share (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels, with resistance at the $481.93 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $483.79/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

The Week Ahead

There are no major economic data releases set for Monday.

Monday evening brings earnings reports from Compass Minerals, Phreesia & Toll Brothers after the session’s close.

Tuesday morning brings us NFIB Optimism Index data at 6 am, before Job Openings (delayed report) at 10 am.

Academy of Sports + Outdoors, AutoZone, Caleres, Campbell Soup, Core & Main, Ferguson, G-III Apparel, Korn/Ferry, Ollie’s Bargain Outlet & SailPoint all report earnings before Tuesday’s opening bell, followed by AeroVironment, Braze, Casey’s General, Cracker Barrel, Dave & Buster’s & GameStop after the closing bell.  

Employment Cost Index (Delayed Report) data comes out at 8:30 am, before the highly anticipated FOMC Interest Rate Decision and Monthly U.S. Federal Budget at 2pm & Fed Chair Powell’s Press Conference at 2:30 pm.

Wednesday morning’s earnings reports include Chewy, Hello Group, Photronics & Uranium Energy, with Oracle, Adobe, NANO Nuclear Energy, Nordson, Oxford Industries, Planet Labs, Synopsys & Vail Resorts all scheduled to report following the session’s close.

Thursday morning brings us Initial Jobless Claims data at 8:30 am.

Ciena & Lovesac report earnings Thursday morning, followed by Broadcom, Costco, Lululemon Athletica & Netskope after the close of trading.

Fed Presidents Paulson & Hammack are both scheduled to speak at 8:30 am on Friday & there are no noteworthy earnings reports scheduled for the day.

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM OR DIA AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF gained +4.73% last week, while the VIX closed at 16.35, indicating an implied one day move range of +/-1.03%, and an implied one month move range of +/-4.73%.

Their RSI is trending towards overbought, currently at 59.1, while their MACD crossed the signal line bullishly on Friday, which will be something to keep an eye on heading into the new week.

Volumes were +16.06% higher than the prior year’s average (81,284,000 vs. 70,037,490), which shows some short-term resilience as each day of last week was an advancing session, however the waning enthusiasm levels at the end of the week paired with the gaps are cause for discomfort.

Monday began SPY’s week with a sign of strength at a test just above the $650/share level & charged higher to form a bullish harami pattern with Friday’s candle.

A note of caution was aired though based on the length of the upper & lower shadows on the day & the elevated volume likely reflected some intraday profit taking.

Tuesday opened on a gap higher & ran, getting up to near the 10 & 50 Day moving averages’ resistance and was able to temporarily break above them, but closed in-line with the levels.

Wednesday opened higher, but profits were taken near the 10 & 50 DMA recent intersection forcing SPY downward to break below the support of both moving averages temporarily, before market participants came roaring back to thrust SPY above both & to close above both levels.

It should be noted that Tuesday & Wednesday had the second & third highest volume levels, indicating that since MOnday enthusiasm levels began to wane.

Thursday is where things began to look dicey & unstable, as a gap up open was able to temporarily break above the $680/share level, but was forced lower to close at $679.68 & it became evident that there were bears entering the chat.

Thursday also featured some profits being taken following the run up of the week from the low of $650.85, but the inability to close above $680/share & the waning volume clearly showed that enthusiasm was leaving the building.

Friday featured another gap up, and issued a warning for the coming week, as the body of the day’s candle closed like a spinning top with no shadow on the top or bottom on the week’s lowest volume.

The shadow on the spinning top candles indicates that there is uncertainty & that there is a range of it, but with little-to-no shadow it appears more like complacency & a wait & see approach, which does not instill much confidence.

Looking ahead, the upside case requires SPY to take out the $684.96/share resistance level, which it didn’t even flirt with on Friday, which adds to the air of caution mentioned above.

Should that occur & we see strong advancing volume there is a chance at taking a run at the all-time high of $689.70/share.

The consolidation case focuses around filling the gaps of last week, before oscillating around the 10 & 50 Day moving averages awaiting an upside or downside catalyst.

This week is relatively quiet on earnings & announcements, but employment data is coming out, as is missed PCE data which could potentially be market moving given how the Fed is watching both for policy clues & the most recent cut was attributed to the labor market.

To the downside, there are plenty of unfilled windows from last week that could see SPY be walked down to the week’s low of $650.85/share.

In the event that we see that SPY will have passed through two Seller dominated zones historically, then has $645-649.99 & $640-644.99/share for Buyer zones before reentering Seller territory for two more zones with only one support touchpoint within them.

Should this happen the 200 day moving average continues to creep higher & suddenly is within a reasonable distance, putting the long-term trend possibly in question.

SPY has support at the $673.95 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.5:1), $670.44 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.5:1), $667.87 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.55:1) & $661.21/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.58:1) price levels, with resistance at the $684.96 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $689.70/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF added +5.73% last week, as investors were less weary of the tech-heavy index.

Their RSI is trending higher at 56.28, while their MACD crossed over the signal line bullishly on Friday, just like SPY’s.

Volumes were +22.18% higher than the prior year’s average (57,290,000 vs. 46,891,753), echoing the same sentiments as SPY in the section above.

Monday QQQ began similarly to SPY, opening in Friday’s range, breaking lower to test the $580/share level which held up, before testing higher & closing the day as a spinning top candle that formed a bullish harami with Friday’s session.

Like SPY, QQQ saw some profits taking intraday on Monday based on the high volume but limited actual growth for the day.

Tuesday opened on a gap higher & continued to climb to close in-line with the resistance of the 10 & 50 day moving averages which recently had crossed over bearishly.

Wednesday saw a retest through most of Tuesday’s candle’s real body, before QQQ advanced to temporarily break above the resistance of the 50 day moving average & close in-line with it.

Thursday is where the weakness began to show though, as a gap up open resulted in a spinning top on the second lowest volume of the week, indicating that there was not much confidence left in the market.

Friday confirmed this when another gap up open resulted in a box shaped candle with little-to-no upper/lower shadow on extremely weak volume, which does not indicate that there is much confidence in the tech heavy index heading into the weekend.

Similar to SPY, QQQ’s upside case revolves around breaking out above its next resistance levels ($624.86/share) & running higher in an attempt to break above their all-time high ~2% above it.

This will require sturdy increases in advancing volume to be sustainable & should be viewed with a cautious eye.

The consolidation case is also similar, as there are a handful of gaps from last week that need to be filled, leading QQQ down to oscillate around & in between the 10 & 50 day moving averages as we await an upside or downside catalyst.

The declining case for this week is focused on the open windows of last week being filled, as well as a breakdown of the support of the 10 & 50 DMAs.

Should that occur, the next support levels of $598.67 resides in a Seller dominated zone for the past year, then a Buyer zone & another Seller zone in the $585-589.99/share zone, making the downside point to watch this week $580.74, as that will become a key area to watch in the event of the aforementioned breakdowns.

QQQ has support at the $613.18 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.17:1), $608.72 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.2:0*), $603.20 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.74:1) & $598.67/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.17:1) price levels, with resistance at the $624.86 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $637.01/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF advanced +8.57% last week, as investors piled into small cap names.

Their RSI is curling over at the 60-mark, while their MACD has been bullish since Thursday, as the small cap index had a very strong week.

Volumes were +36.10% higher than the prior year’s average (47,060,000 vs. 34,578,207), which will be cause to watch this week to see if it was actually a sustainable rotation into small caps, or if we see a violent rug pull & profits taken in the coming week.

The latter seems likely given that IWM moved in a manner that is much more similar than SPY & QQQ compared to the index’s normal behavior.

Monday opened just above the $230/share level, briefly tested lower, before storming higher, testing the resistance of the 10 DMA & closing just below it to form a bullish harami pattern with Friday’s candle.

Tuesday opened on a gap higher in-line with the 10 DMA, tested down towards the $235/share level, before catapulting higher to temporarily break above the $240/share level intraday.

The rally continued Wednesday, where the second highest volume of the week came on a gap up open that tested lower to the $240/share level, bounced off of it & ran higher to break out above the resistance of the 50 DMA.

Thursday opened on another gap higher above $245/share, tested slightly lower & ran off higher, but much like with SPY & QQQ the bears began to creep back into the market and the session’s upper shadow sobered up market participants who were thinking a big rally was getting underway.

Friday opened on another gap higher, but the low volume session produced a day-over-day gain of +0.59%, but the day’s candle resembled a miniature hanging man, indicating that there is hesitency/gloom on the horizon for IWM.

To the upside, Thursday’s high needs to be broken through firstly, but if enough volume prevails there is a shot at running for the all-time high; it will likely be more dependant on the moves of the other major 3 index ETFs in this article.

For our consolidation case, as gaps fill in & price heads back towards the 10 & 50 DMAs there will be oscillations in-between & around them while we await an upside or downside catalyst.

The downside will likely hinge a bit on the other major three indexes, but it begins with a breakdown of the support of the 10 & 50 day moving averages.

Should that happen, the $232-235.99/share level is a Seller zone historically, so all eyes then should be directed to $236.27/share & $228.90/share, the latter of which has two touch-points on the past year’s chart.

IWM has support at the $248.48 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $246.38 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $243.15 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.19:1) & $240.86/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.19:1) price levels, with resistance at the $248.82 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $252.77/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF gained +4.17% for the week, as the blue chip index performed the worst of the four majors.

Their RSI is trending towards the overbought 70-mark, currently sitting at 59.66, while their MACD bullishly crossed the signal line on Friday.

Volumes were +60.69% higher than the prior year’s average levels (6,608,000 vs. 4,112,270), reflecting a similar setup pattern as the three majors above & raising questions as to whether or not we’ll see a rug pull & flurry of profit taking in the near-term.

Monday opened to form a similar bullish harami pattern for DIA on volumes that eclipsed the rest of the week (and most of the rest of the year sans 3 sessions).

Tuesday opened on a gap higher, closed as a spinning top, but with high wave upper & lower shadows, indicating that there was a bit of uncertainty surrounding the session, with the exception of market participants would not let DIA venture above the resistance at the 50 DMA.

Wednesday opened on another gap higher, retraced back into the real body of Tuesday’s candle, before powering higher & breaking out above the 10 & 50 DMA’s resistance levels & closing well above them.

Thursday saw another gap up open, but bears began to come back out once the $475/share level was crossed into short-term profit taking kicked in & prices were forced to close at $474.35, a gain of +0.67% day-over-day.

Friday saw yet another gap up open, and like the aforementioned index ETFs there was little upper shadow on the day’s candle, indicating that investors have become cautious heading into the close of the week.

To the upside, DIA needs to break above the $479.79/share resistance level & see some strong advancing volume if it wants to make a meaningful run at the all-time high ~1% above it.

It’s not impossible, but given the gappy nature of last week’s advances it seems unlikely.

The consolidation case involves closing the windows mentioned above & on the way down finding some support to oscillate around & in -between the 10 & 50 DMAs.

The downside case sees DIA breaking down through the support of the 10 & 50 DMAs, where the $457.13/share support levels comes into clear play, as it is the gatekeeper to the $452-455.99/share zone that is Seller dominated historically.

Should that break down, the $453.84/share zone is likely to break down as well, moving attention in the medium-term to $447.99/share.

DIA has support at the $469.63 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $466.97 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.9:1), $466.61 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.9:1) & $464.28/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.9:1) price levels, with resistance at the $479.79 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $483.79/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

The Week Ahead

Monday kicks the week off with S&P Final U.S. Manufacturing PMI data at 9:45 am, before ISM Manufacturing data comes out at 10 am.

Credo Technology Group, MongoDB & Vestis all report earnings following Monday’s session.

Auto Sales data is scheduled for release on Tuesday.

Tuesday morning’s earnings calls include Bnak of Nova Scotia & Signet Jewelers, before American Eagle, Asana, Box, CrowdStrike, GitLab, Marvell Technology, Okta & Pure Storage report after the session’s closing bell.

Wednesday brings us ADP Employment data at 8:15 am, followed by Import Price Index (Delayed Report) & Import Price Minus Fuel data at 8:30 am, S&P Final U.S. Services PMI data at 9:45 am & ISM Services data at 10 am.

Dollar Tree, Macy’s, Royal Bank of Canada & Sprinklr all report earnings before the session’s open, before Salesforce, C3.ai, Descartes, Five Below, Guidewire Software, HealthEquity, nCino, PVH, Snowflake & UiPath report after the closing bell.

Initial Jobless Claims & U.S. Trade Deficit data come out Thursday at 8:30 am.

Thursday morning features earnings from Dollar General, Bank of Montreal, Brown-Forman, BRP, CIBC, Donaldson, Hormel Foods, Kroger, Science Applications, Toronto-Dominion Bank & Wiley, followed by Argan, Cooper, DocuSign, Domo, Hewlett Packard Enterprise, Rubrik, Samsara, SentinelOne, ServiceTitan, Smith & Wesson, Stitch Fix, Ulta Beauty & Zumies after the closing bell.

Friday the week winds down with Personal Income (Delayed Report), Personal Spending (Delayed Report), PCE Index (Delayed Report), PCE (Year-over-Year), Core PCE Index (Delayed Report) & Core PCE (Year-over-Year) at 8:30 am, followed by Consumer Sentiment (prelim) at 10 am & Consumer Credit at 3pm.

Victoria’s Secret reports earnings before Friday morning’s opening bell.

See you back here next week!

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM OR DIA AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF edged higher +0.14%, while the VIX closed at 19.83, indicating an implied one day move range of +/-1.25% & an implied one month move range of +/-5.73%.

Their RSI is flat, sitting just beneath the neutral 50-level at 48.27, while their MACD is still bearish & trending below the signal line over the past two weeks.

Volumes were +16.25% higher than the prior year’s average (79,482,000 vs. 68,374,480), which remains a cause for concern, particularly this week as the top two highest volume days were on declines & eclipse the advancing days.

The week opened on a gap up on the highest advancing volume of the week (but still didn’t hold a candle to Thursday & Friday’s declining volume), opening just below the 10 day moving average’s resistance.

SPY headfaked lower temporarily, before mustering up some steam, breaking out above the 10 DMA & managing to close above it, which had been elusive the prior four sessions.

Tuesday opened slightly lower, but in-line with the 10 DMA waiting to decide to continue marching higher or if the support broke down; the bulls won & the charge carried forward.

Observing that this was the lowest volume session of the week, there’s a great degree of hesitency in the air, if not some outright pockets of fear emerging.

Wednesday confirmed this, on a gap up open that quickly turned foreboding, as bears rushed in, profits were taken (along with risk off of the board) & SPY made a downward run at the support of the 10 DMA.

It was able to recover some of the losses though, but still closed below its opening price as a hanging man candle, carrying particularly bearish implications.

Low volume gap up is usually not a great sign if you’re assessing conviction among market participants, and the lower close than opening price on weak volume all combine to paint a picture that’s not very bright.

Confirmation arrived Thursday, when a high volume session began on a gap lower, breaking through the support of & not looking back to the 10 DMA, with a lower shadow that showed that there was still bearish appetite.

This became quite self evident when Friday opened below the resistance of the 50 day moving average (which was -1.3% below the 10 DMA), head faked lower, but managed to climb higher & break out above the 50 DMA’s resistance.

It was however, unable to retest the 10 day moving average’s resistance, indicating that the short-term trend is not SPY’s-friend at the moment.

The bullish case heading into the weekend echos similar to last week’s, the 10 DMA has to be broken above & some stronger advancing value sessions more consistently may see a shot at a new all-time high.

Closing a Monday gap up on a Friday does not give the impression of much strength, so we’ll need some news to hopefully provide an upwards catalyst.

The consolidation case is similar to what the week showed us already, there’ll be oscillations around & in between the 10 & 50 day moving averages while we await an upside or downside catalyst.

Should we see a downside catalyst, the 50 DMA’s support is first priority, especially given Friday opened below it & managed to close higher than it heading into the weekend.

If it breaks down the next couple of months look very interesting, as there are three support levels currently separating the 50 & 200 DMAs, and two of them historically are Seller Zones (1.57 & 2:1), which could bring the long-term trendline into view.

It also then opens up the filling of the window from June 2025 discussion as a possibility, which would cause the 200 DMA to break down.

SPY has support at the $668.15 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.55:1), $661.21 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.58:1), $653.17 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.57:1) & $638.08/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2:1) price levels, with resistance at the $673.95 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers 2.5:1), $676.92 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $684.96 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $689.70/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF shed -0.14% on the week, as the tech darlings have begun to fall out of favor with market participants.

Their RSI is flat as well, just beneath the neutral 50-mark & sits currently at 46.64, while their MACD has been below their signal line bearishly for two weeks, with a strong looking histogram behind the bearish sentiment.

Volumes were +31.55% higher than the prior year’s average levels (59,930,000 vs. 45,557,560), which has a different layout, but similar sentiment from Friday’s squeeze higher prior to this week’s NVDA earnings, Fed Speakers & return to having government provided economic data as the government has reopened.

Monday saw a similar gap up open as SPY had, some quick profit taking provided a small lower shadow & QQQ ran up to just beneath the resistance of the 10 DMA, indicating that they’re also in a bearish short-term trend.

Tuesday created an interesting set up, opening within Monday’s real body, ducking lower to make a higher low, before closing higher, technically as a hanging man that opened higher than it closed, in a bearish harami pattern on the week’s lowest volume.

Well, Wednesday didn’t offer much more either, minus telling us that the short-term trendline is limiting QQQ & rejecting it back, as QQQ opened on a gap higher above the 10 DMA, sunk below it & wound up closing in-line with it.

Thursday showed there was no more gas in the tank & QQQ opened below the 10 DMA’s resistance & carried lower to bounce off of the 50 day moving average’s support, but close just above it.

Friday opened on a gap lower to below the 50 DMA’s support, tested slightly lower, but found footing & broke out back above the 50 DMA & managed to close above it.

Upper shadow indicates that there is some appetite slightly higher, but the 10 DMA is likely going to reign supreme without some type of major upside catalyst.

If they do manage to run higher beyond the 10 DMA it’s two stops to a new all-time high.

The consolidation case looks more likely when you consider that the 10 DMA focuses on short-term risks across the board, not just on a major company, but to make the run higher sustainable a lot of advancing volume needs to be seen & not just in a one or two session instance..

In the event of consolidation, this past week somewhat set the stage for the range, oscillating in between & around the 10 & 50 day moving averages, which are only -1.97% apart & could apply some downwards pressure.

Now should that occur & we see a downside case emerge, QQQ has more local support levels separating them from their 200 day moving average than SPY, which is beneficial, but also may reflect over exuberance in tech companies.

If the 50 DMA gives out, we see the next support levels in a Seller zone (1.17:1) over the past year, and the next one is $0.13 above another Seller zone at $585-589.99, where the Seller ratio is 3.14:1, that’s likely to provide downwards pressure.

That would make the $582.64-level the next place to watch, in the event of a downside move like that.

QQQ has support at the $605.72 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.2:0*), $598.67 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.17:1), $590.13 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.04:1) & $582.64/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.5:0*) price levels, with resistance at the $613.18 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.17:1), $617.92 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $624.86 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $637.01/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF declined -1.71%, as the small cap index had the worst of the major four.

Their RSI has flattened out halfway between the neutral 50-mark & oversold territory, sitting currently at 41.11, while their MACD continues on in bearish territory, as it has since late September.

Volumes were +29.32% higher than the prior year’s average (43,438,000 vs. 33,589,000), which was primarily fueled by Thursday & Friday’s sessions.

Monday kicked the week off in a similar fashion to SPY & QQQ with a gap up open that was in-line with the 10 day moving average, before breaking down to run at the 50 day MA’s support, which held up.

However, despite running back some of the day’s losses, IWM still closed the day as a hanging man candle that closed lower than it opened, showing continued bearishness on the horizon.

Tuesday opened lower just above the 50 day moving average, broke the support of it briefly, but then rallied higher to briefly break out above the 10 DMA’s resistance, only to settle down & close in-line with it.

Wednesday is when trouble began to really be signaled, as the morning opened higher, tested to $246.38, but then sank for a loss of -0.25%, resting just atop the 10 DMA bearishly crossing through the 50 DMA at the close.

Thursday it all began to unwind, with IWM opening on a gap lower to beneath both moving averages, making a run up at them but not breaking through theresistance & getting sent down for a loss of -2.81% on the highest volume of the week, as fear & panic had set into the small cap index.

Friday opened on a gap lower, but was squeezed higher throughout the day to head into the weekend on an cautiously optimistic note on the week’s second highest volume.

Looking tot he week ahead, the upside case involved IWM breaking out above both the 10 & 50 day moving averages’ resistance levels, which while they are close to one another, will likely require a gap that receives ample fuel to tread water above/climb higher, as there is clearly bearish sentiment congested in there.

The consolidation case revolves around the range created by Friday’s candle, with some space to the top & bottom of it while the 10 & 50 DMA’s catch up with market participants & IWM’s share price – to the upside the $237.55/56 level will cap the range.

The downside case gets interesting, as the $236.27/share level is the nearest support, before nothing until $228.90, a loss of -3.12%, which sits atop a small support zone before the 200 day moving average comes into near-view.

Watch the other major indexes in this note for insight into where IWM may go, as the small cap names are likely to follow them or decline further under the current market conditions.

The table below lays out historic volume Sentiment for IWM & may be helpful in gauging the strength/weakness of support/resistance levels.

IWM has support at the $236.27 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.56:1), $228.90 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.58:1), $226.07 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.07:1) & $225.40/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.07:1) price levels, with resistance at the $237.55/6 (2 Touch-Points, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.56:1), $240.76 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.19:1), $241.95 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.19:1) & $242.35/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.19:1) price levels.

DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF advanced +0.41%, faring the strongest of the major four index ETFs.

Their RSI is heading downwards towards the neutral 50-mark, currently at 51.29, while the MACD dipped bearishly under the signal line on Friday, forming on the histogram what somewhat resembled a middle finger, at what may prove to be an interesting juncture.

Volumes were +87.45% higher than the prior year’s average (7,442,000 vs. 3,970,160), which appears to possibly be a flight from the “Buy & Hold” investment thesis, given the nature of the blue chip names & will be an important reason to be watching DIA’s volume trends in the coming weeks.

DIA opened the week on a gap higher, retesting back down to the $470/share level & rallying higher to close in-line with the 10 day moving average on the week’s second lowest volume.

Tuesday saw the 10 DMA’s resistance break down & DIA ran for the $480/share level (unsuccessfully), on the lowest volume of the week, indicating that market participants had become a bit nervous & just collecting profits while they can, but the side of the day’s range with that low of volume did not reflect confidence.

Wednesday opened on a gap up, ran higher, but the bears came in for their profits & risk management before the $485/share level was reached & a shooting star emerged, indicating bearishness had stepped into the building.

Sure enough, Thursday followed suit & managed to retrace most of Wednesday’s candle’s real bodyq before the ladder got kicked out from under it & the next stop on the elevator down was the 10 day moving average’s support.

Thursday also had the second highest volume of the week, which really shows the weakness behind Tuesday’s gain in terms of lack of faith/short-term breakdown emerging.

Friday opened on a gap down to below the 10 DMA’s support, made a run higher, unable to test the resistance level, while also making a similar sized break lower, before closing as a doji candle.

This signal of bearish uncertainty paints an interesting picture heading into the weekend.

The upside case now is an interesting question, as they have just made another all-time high this week, but have also shown weakness regarding their short-term trend line, making the 10 DMA the first place to be watching, anticipating it to be support & that there’s some strong volume behind it.

If that passes, there’ll either be a tight head & shoulders emerging, else all eyes go to that all-time high.

The consolidation case could emerge here, oscillating between the 10 & 50 DMAs & filling Monday’s window from the gap up open, else a brief up move will show the strength of the 10 DMA & lead the two lines closer together.

The downside case requires a similar strength, but of support coming from the 50 day moving average.

If it can hold up there may be a leg-lower consolidation while we await to see the bearish 10 & 50 DMA crossover, but with such little faith in the short-term trend & it’s current curl, one must be vigilant for gap down opens.

After that, the $454.41 support levels becomes a primary target, as it resides in a Seller Zone (1.1:1).

From there to the downside, there is the $448.55/share level & then the 200 DMA, which also resides in a Seller Zone (1.65:1), which brings the long-term trend of the blue chip index into question.

DIA has support at the $470.22 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $465.97 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.9:1), $464.86 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.9:1) & $454.41/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.1:1) price levels, with resistance at the $473.91 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $480.39 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $484.39/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

The Week Ahead

Monday the week kicks off with Empire State Manufacturing Survey data at 8:30 am, Fed Vice Chair Jefferson speaks at 9 am, Fed President Kashkari speaks at 1 pm & Fed Governor Waller speaks at 3:35 pm.

Aramark, Brady, J&J Snack Foods & JinkoSolar all report earnings before Monday’s opening bell, before LifeMD & Trip.com Group report after the session’s close.

Import Price Index & Import Price Index minus Fuel data come out at 8:30 am on Tuesday, followed by Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization data at 9:15 am, Home Builder Confidence Index data at 10 am, Home Builder Confidence Index data at 10 am & Fed Governor Barr speaking at 10:30 am.

Tuesday morning’s earnings reports feature results from Aecom Tech, Amer Sports, Baidu, BellRing Brands, Energizer, Home Depot, James Hardie, Klarna Group, Medtronic, Oaktree Specialty Lending & Weibo, with Dolby Labs, Golub Capital, Helmerich & Payne, La-Z-Boy, Powell Industries & Sociedad Quimica y Minera reporting after the closing bell. 

Wednesday morning features Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey data, Housing Starts & Building Permits data at 8:30 am, before Minutes of October’s FOMC Meeting are published at 2pm.

Birkenstock Holding, Bullish, Dycom, GDS Holdings, Global-E Online, Kingsoft Cloud, Lowe’s, Target, TJX, Viking Holdings & Wix.com all report earnings before Wednesday morning’s opening bell, before NVDA, BrightView, Copa Holdings, Jack In The Box, Kulicke & Soffa, NANO Nuclear Energy, NJ Resources, ODDITY Tech, Palo Alto Networks & ZTO Express all report after the closing bell. 

Initial Jobless Claims data comes out at 8:30 am Thursday, followed by Existing Home Sales & U.S. Leading Economic Indicators data at 10 am, Fed Governor Cook speaking at 11 am, Fed President Goolsbee speaking at 1:40 pm & Fed President Paulson speaking at 6:45 pm.

Thursday’s earnings reports kick off with Walmart, Atkore International, Bath & Body Works, Construction Partners, Jacobs Solutions, Magnera, MAXIMUS, Shoe Carnival, Vipshop & Warner Music Group, before we hear results from Elastic, Esco Tech, Gap, Intuit, Post, Ross Stores, UGI, Veeva Systems & Webull following the session’s close. 

Friday winds the week down with Fed Governor Barr speaking at 8:30 am, Fed Vice Chair Jefferson speaking at 8:45 am, Fed President Logan speaking at 9 am, S&P Flash U.S. Services PMI & S&P Flash U.S. Manufacturing PMI data at 9:45 am & Consumer Sentiment (final) data at 10 am.

BJ’s Wholesale, Buckle & Moog all report earnings before Friday’s opening bell.

See you back here next week!

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM OR DIA AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF dropped -1.63% last week, while the VIX closed at 19.08, indicating an implied one day move range of +/-1.2% & an implied one month move range of +/-5.51%.

Their RSI is hovering just below the neutral 50-mark, currently at 49.05, while their MACD is bearish after crossing over last week.

Volumes were +17.03% higher than the prior year’s average levels (79,156,000 vs. 67,638,160), which paints an interesting picture, given that two of the top three sessions by high volume were bearish & the highest of the week was Friday’s squeeze higher heading into the weekend.

While it may have depicted a surge of optimism regarding the shutdown ending potentially this week, it is not a reassuring sight of everything being fine.

Monday the week began the week on an unambitious note, opening higher, but then seeing low volume declines throughout the day, at one point testing the support of the 10 day moving average, but recovering slightly to still close the day lower than it opened, but for an day-over-day gain of +0.19%

Tuesday the ladder got kicked out from beneath SPY & we saw the 10 DMA’s support break down, as a gap lower opened the session below the resistance of the 10 DMA, which tested higher, could not break out above the 10 DMA & ultimately closed ominously as a gravestone doji, indicating that there was clearly a lack of risk appetite.

Wednesday provided a glimmer of hope as the day resulted in a bearish engulfing pattern, but on the week’s second lowest volume, indicating that there was limited fuel behind the move & that investor sentiment is still shaky at best.

This was also confirmed by the 10 day moving average’s resistance having a second consecutive day or denying SPY to climb higher; not enough people got behind the move.

Thursday also offered no sign of hope, as a lower open continued to slide throughout the session on the second highest volume of the week, indicating that there was a clear risk-off appetite & it should also be noted that there was not even a run made at the 10 day moving average, the short-term trend line has at least for now rejected SPY.

This brings us to Friday, where one might be fooled by seeing the largest volume of the week being on an advancing session, but weakness continued to show.

The session opened on a gap lower, and market participants drove SPY down to break below the support of the 50 day moving average temporarily.

While they did manage to squeeze it higher for a day-over-day gain of +0.1%, the day’s wide range between the selling/profit taking & then subsequent squeeze into the weekend is more to blame for the high volume, not an actual mentality reset.

It should be noted that in addition to the 50 DMA’s support being cleanly broken through (indicating that the medium-term trend may also be reversing soon), price never came close to the 10 DMA’s resistance, signaling broader problems.

Heading into the week the advancing case requires SPY to break out above the 10 DMA’s resistance, which will require an uptick in advancing volume to come in off of the sidelines if it’s going to be a lasting move.

Should we get that, there may be an additional run at a new all-time high.

The consolidation case would see a range emerging in between & just outside of the 10 & 50 day moving averages where SPY oscillates until we get an upside or downside catalyst to force a breakout.

The downside case continues as its been in weeks past, really hinging on the support of the 50 DMA holding up, as otherwise SPY drops into a zone where Sellers have been more prominent than Buyers at a rate of 2.4:1 which leads into the next support level which is also in a Seller zone at a rate of 1.57:1.

That leads us to the $617.58/share support level, which is the gatekeeper to filling in that gap down from the end of June & entering into the consolidation zones of late 2024 & early 2025 where SPY will seek support.

SPY has support at the $664.53 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.58:1), $653.17 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.57:1), $638.08 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2:1) & $617.58/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.2:1) price levels, with resistance at the $673.95 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.5:1), $679.90 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $689.70/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF declined -3.07% for the week, as the tech-heavy index was the least favorite among market participants.

Their RSI is below the 50 level & sits currently at 47.94, while their MACD crossed the signal line bearishly last week.

Volumes were +35.36% higher than the prior year’s average (60,726,000 vs. 44,863,680), which paints a rather dark picture when you consider the top three highest sessions all came on declines.

Monday set the dreary stage for QQQ, as a higher open quickly descended into a test lower than closed lower than the day opened.

Tuesday opened on a gap down in-line with the 10 day moving average’s support, attempted to break out higher, but bears stepped back in forcing the day to close further lower.

Wednesday opened up slightly lower, but managed to rally back & take another run at the resistance of the 10 day moving average, but bears stepped in & forced QQQ to close lower.

Thursday market participants took the 10 DMA off of the menu, as QQQ opened lower & continued to sink throughout the session on the second highest volume of the week.

Fear had begun sinking in, fast, and it led to Friday morning’s gap down open, which declined to temporarily dip below the support of the 50 day moving average, but bulls stepped in & forced QQQ higher into the close, for a daily return of -0.32%.

Heading into a new week the bullish case resembles that of SPY, the 10 day moving average must be broken through with ample supporting volume if QQQ wants to make another run at their all-time high.

Their consolidation case is also similar, where QQQ will oscillate between & around the outside of the 10 & 50 day moving averages, awaiting an upside or downside catalyst.

To the downside, should the 50 day moving average give out & be broken down the next three support levels are Buyer oriented for QQQ which is to their advantage.

However, if the $573.96/share level breaks down, it sits atop two Seller oriented price zones which may force the decline lower & put the $558.19/share in the spotlight to provide support.

QQQ has support at the $601.14 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.74:1), $590.13 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.04:1), $582.64 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.5:0*) & $573.96/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 6.88:1) price levels, with resistance at the $613.18 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.17:1), $624.79 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $637.01/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF fell -1.88% for the week, as the small cap index had the second worst showing of the four major index ETFs.

Their RSI is also just below the neutral 50 level at 46.27, while their MACD has been bearish since late-September.

Volumes were +18.4% higher than the prior year’s average (39,434,000 vs. 33,305,600), mostly on account of Friday’s wide-range session.

Monday showed that risk-off was still the name of the game for IWM, as the session opened below the 10 day moving average’s resistance, tread almost all the way down to the support of the 50 day moving average, before closing higher but still down -0.32%.

Tuesday this theme continued, as IWM opened lower, made a run up at the 10 DMA’s resistance, but was stopped well short of it by the Sellers & closed down below the support of the 50 day moving average as a spinning top candle at the low end of the day’s range, a sign of fear & uncertainty.

Wednesday showed a glimmer of hope, opening slightly higher & in-line with the 50 DMA, briefly tapping lower but then powering above it, with the day’s high coming within view of the resistance of the 10 DMA.

While it was on the third highest volume of the week, that’s not saying a ton/a major vote of confidence.

Thursday opened lower, was unable to produce much more in terms of a day’s high, and slid in a profit taking spree down to close below the support of the 50 DMA.

Friday opened on a gap down, showed more selling & downside appetite, before squeezing higher to close the day +0.52% heading into the weekend on a wide-range session.

The upside case for IWM currently hinges up the strength of both the 10 & 50 day moving averages as resistance,and whether or not IWM can gap up over them & prevent a bearish crossover from occurring (which appears unlikely, but could happen).

While there are three other resistance levels seperating them from a new all-time high still asides from those two, that is the first step, which should include a healthy uptick in advancing volume before being trusted.

The consolidation case centers around IWM oscillating around & in-between its 10 & 50 DMA’s once they spread out more, awaiting an upside or downside catalyst.

To the downside, the $237.55/6 levels are going to be key for support, as else the next support levels is -3.64% lower, where there will be a big test of support among IWM’s two longest consolidation ranges of their one year chart.

As has been noted before, the other major three index ETFs in this note are going to lead this one lower, so if there’s a decline among them expect IWM to follow, as these price levels are not where folks are rotating from larger caps into small caps upon a selloff.

IWM has support at the $240.76 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.19:1), $239.79 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.56:1), $237.55/6 (2 Touchpoints, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.56:1) & $228.90/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.58:1) price levels, with resistance at the $242.35 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.19:1), $242.55 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.19:1), $245.05 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $248.48/share (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF dipped -1.22%, faring the best of the major index ETFs.

Their RSI is just above the neutral 50 level at 52.71, while their MACD crossed bearishly through the signal line on Thursday & remains below it.

Volumes were +72.81% higher than the prior year’s average (6,726,000 vs. 3,892,200), indicating that there has been some extreme levels of reshuffling, mostly attributed to declining volume of recent, which is cause for caution.

Monday the week began the week on a dark note, as the session opened above Friday’s close, declined down to break through the support of the 10 day moving average, before closing just above it while forming a bearish engulfing pattern.

Tuesday opened below the 10 DMA on a gap down, but managed to close higher than it opened, but still, the spinning top candle made it clear that fear & uncertainty were still in the air.

Wednesday showed an effort to run up & above the 10 DMA’s resistance, but was unable to close above it & ended the day just below the short-term trendline.

Thursday opened lower, made a run at the 10 DMA again, but upon rejection broke down to below the $470/share level on the week’s second highest volume, causing the 10 DMA to begin to curl over from above.

Friday opened lower, made a run lower towards the 50 day moving average’s support, but rallied higher into the day, closed +0.12% on the day & formed a hammer candlestick while closing just below the session’s high, indicating that there may be some hope on the horizon for DIA this week.

To that point, DIA’s upside case requires them to break out & above the 10 day moving average, particularly as it now has been curled over & covering their share price for 4 of the past 5 sessions above.

If they can break out above it, their final resistance level to pass is their most recent all-time high.

As has been noted for months now, there will need to be more advancing volume coming in in order to keep grinding higher at this point.

The consolidation case is going to be oscillations around & in between the 10 & 50 day moving averages while we await an upside or downside catalyst.

To the downside, if the 50 day moving average’s support breaks down, the $454.41/share support level sits in a Seller dominated zone historically (1.1:1, but near all-time highs & in the blue chip buy & hold index this is signifcant), which is that gives out brings up $448.55/share & the window created in August that has remained unfilled since.

The good news, is that there are some consolidation ranges that can provide support zones, but the bad news is that once we enter near that the 200 day moving average comes into view & the long-term trend may be showing weakness.

DIA has support at the $463.68 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.36:1), $454.41 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.1:1), $448.55 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.8:1) & $445.13/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2:1) price levels, with resistance at the $470.22 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $473.62 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $480.39/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

The Week Ahead

Monday opens up with no major economic data releases.

Barrick Mining, Bitdeer Technologies, Camtek, Ceva, Dole plc, Enviri Corporation, eToro Group Ltd, EVgo Inc., Global Business Travel, Global Ship Lease, Howard Hughes Holdings, Instacart, KE Holdings, Monday.com, Pagaya, Roivant Sciences, Starwood Property Trust, Surgery Partners, Tower Semi, TreeHouse Foods, Tyson Foods & Venture Global all report earnings Monday morning before the market opens, before AST SpaceMobile, BigBear.ai, Cannae Holdings, CoreWeave, Getty Images, Green Dot, Jamf Holding, Occidental Petro, Paramount Skydance, Repay Holdings, Rigetti Computing, StandardAero, TechTarget, TeraWulf & Tidewater report after the closing bell. 

Tuesday the bond market is closed for Veteran’s Day, but Fed Governor Barr speaks at 10:25 am, and NFIB Optimism Index data comes out at 6 am.

Tuesday morning’s earnings include Sea Limited, SFL Corp. & WhiteFiber, followed by Amdocs, CAE, NANO Nuclear Energy, Oklo & StubHub Holdings after the closing bell.

Fed President Williams speaks at 9:20 am on Wednesday before at 10 am Fed President Paulson speaks, Fed Governor Waller speaks at 10:20 am, Fed President Bostic speaks at 12:15 pm, Fed Governor Miran speaks at 12:30 pm & Fed President Collins speaks at 4pm.

Wednesday morning begins with earnings from Arcos Dorados, Circle Internet Group, Cormedix, GlobalFoundries, Hudbay Minerals, HUYA, Klarna Group plc, Legend Biotech, Manulife Financial, McGraw Hill, Metsera, On, Riskified, Tencent Music & Transdigm Group, before Cisco Systems, Cellebrite DI, Digi International, dLocal Limited, Firefly Aerospace, Flutter Entertainment, Heartflow, Ibotta, KinderCare Learning Companies, Pan Am Silver, Rumble, Tetra Tech & WEBTOON Entertainment report after the session’s close.

Thursday may begin at 8:30 with Initial Jobless Claims, Consumer Price Index, CPI Year-over-Year, Core CPI & Core CPI Year-over-Year data at 8:30 am, should the government shutdown end prior, Fed President Williams speaks at 9:20 am, Fed President Musalem speaks at 12:15 pm, Fed President Hammack speaks at 12:20 pm, the Monthly U.S. Federal Budget data is published at 2 pm & Fed President Bostic speaks at 3:20 pm.

Walt Disney reports earnings Thursday morning, along with Accelerant Holdings, Bilibili, Birkenstock Holding Plc, Canadian Solar, Edgewell Personal Care, Gambling.com Group Ltd., JD.com, MarineMax, NIQ Global Intelligence plc, Paysafe, Sally Beauty, Spectrum Brands & Stratasys, followed by Applied Materials, Beazer Homes, Figure Technology Solutions, Globant, JBS, Newsmax, South Bow & Starz Entertainment after the session’s close.  

Friday also begins with a potential batch of data, dependent on the government reopening that includes U.S. Retail Sales, Retail Sales Minus Autos, Producer Price Index, Core PPI, PPI Year-over-Year & Core PPI Year-over-Year data at 8:30 am, before Business Inventories data at 10 am, Fed President Schmid speaks at 10:05 am & Fed President Logan speaks at 2:30pm.

Scholar Rock & Spire report earnings before the ses open on Friday.

See you back here next week!

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM OR DIA AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF climbed +0.71% on the week, while the VIX closed at 17.44, indicating an implied one day move range of +/-1.1% & an implied one month move range of +/-5.04%.

Their RSI is trending higher at 61.43, while their MACD is flat & looking set to bearishly cross through the signal line in the coming day or two.

Volumes were +8.99% higher than the prior year’s average (72,968,000 vs. 66,946,693), which does not paint a strong picture & indicates that there was a lot of profit taking last week due to each day’s performance.

Monday the week began on a gap up to above $680/share, but the week volume was unconvincing of the move higher & its staying power.

Tuesday followed suit, opening on a gap higher & ultimately closing the day as a spinning top candle, indicating temporary equilibrium, with a touch of uncertainty, which was also confirmed by the other lowest volume of the week with Monday’s session.

Caution had begun to creep into the market regarding SPY & its component stocks, with additional warning signs creeping into play on Friday, where 3.37% of SPY component stocks hit fresh 52-week highs, while 6.15% hit fresh 52-week lows.

Technology & AI names had been responsible for the market to grind higher, while under the hood the broader index was not performing as strongly.

Wednesday the cracks became exposed when SPY opened on a gap up, ran at the $690/share level, but was stopped short, increasing their all-time high to $689.70, but closing lower than it opened & forming a hanging man candle, indicating that bearishness had finally set in.

There was a surge in profit taking Wednesday as well, as the session had the highest volume of the week in reaction to earnings reports & their relation to what the currently unreported government economic data may be based on their clues.

Thursday offered confirmation of this, as SPY opened on a gap lower, temporarily fought higher, but bears set in & forced the day down -1.1% on the week’s third highest volume, as folks were making their way towards the exit.

Friday opened on a slight gap up, but fear spread into the market & folks began selling, forcing price down to make a run at the 10 day moving average’s support & closing lower than the day opened.

Moving into a new week, in the event that the 10 DMA’s support is able to sustain then & SPY’s charts can broaden may be able to make another attempt at an all-time high, but it will need solid advancing volume & less profit taking in the near-future following the move to continue higher.

The consolidation case looks like SPY oscillating around the 10 DMA, awaiting a signal in the near-term trend to serve as a catalyst higher or lower while the 50 day moving average creeps higher from just -2.45% below.

What that catalyst may be will be interesting to see, as there are a littany of earnings reports across a wide variety of sectors, industries & market cap sizes, there is U.S. Services data coming out, which has been an area of interest in discussing the inputs to inflation & how they’re reacting to policy differently.

There are also a handful of Federal Reserve speakers this week & given that the government shutdown appears to be continuing on there will be a lot of data that is not reported for the week, which may leave investor unwinding earnings calls & other data announcements to try to piece together how the economy is running.

To the downside, in the event that the support of the 10 DMA gives out, all eyes should fall on the 50 DMA’s support, which will continue climbing higher in the meantime lagging SPY’s price.

While it resides in a Buyer oriented zone from the past ~3 years, if it shows weakness SPY enters back-to-back Seller zones (2.4:1 & 1.57:1), which then makes $638.08 an area of interest, as it becomes the gatekeeper to the next support levels & zone.

SPY has support at the $678.10 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $673.95 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.5:1), $661.49 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.58:1) & $653.17/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.57:1) price levels, with resistance at the $689.70/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF advanced +1.94% on the week, faring the strongest of the major indexes.

Their RSI is trending higher & currently sits at 63.97, while their MACD is bullish, but has flattened & has a waning histogram, indicating weakness on the near-term horizon & like we may see a bearish run at the signal line in the coming days.

Volumes were +39.31% higher than the prior year’s average (61,652,000 vs. 44,256,454), which like SPY may prove to be indicative of weakness, as their advancing/declining volume sessions mirrored one another.

Monday QQQ opened the week on a gap up, but was unable to break above the $630/share level on low volume, indicating that there was a bit on uneasiness still in the air, following the gap post consolidation to end the prior week.

Tuesday also opened on a gap up to above $630 & continued higher, but the day’s upper shadow showed that the bears were beginning to take over & trim some of their recent profits after three consecutive gap ups.

Wednesday also opened on a gap up, and the highest volume session of the week made a run higher to try to break the $640/share level, but was stopped short at a new all-time high of $637.01/share, before profit taking setin & the day ended as a doji candle.

Thursday confirmed this, with QQQ gapping down & more Sellers stepping into the market to take profits from the table & take risk off of the table on the week’s third highest volume.

While day-over-day Friday was +0.48%, the session opened on a gap higher & proceeded to sink lower all day as more profits were taking & risk reduced, but unlike SPY, QQQ remained higher above the support of the 10 day moving average.

Heading into the new week, QQQ’s outlook is similar to SPY’s; the upside case requires more advancing volume with less profit taking in order to make another run higher, but the latter two sessions of the week could be forming the beginning of a broadening pattern, which will be something to keep an eye on.

The conolidation case is also similar, where a range continuing Thursday & Friday’s lead begins to oscillate around the 10 day moving average awaiting a signal of an upside or downside catalyst.

The downside case is also very similar, with QQQ’s 10 day moving average the first key support level, which should it give way puts $613.18 in the hot seat while the window created by the prior Friday fills, leading prices to ~$610/share & bringing the 50 day moving average’s support into question.

That will be a key area to watch as it is currently in a Seller zone (1.17:1) from this past year, which may lead to further selling, in which case $590.13 becomes the gatekeeper, as the $585-589.99/share zone is also Seller dominated (3.14:1).

QQQ has support at the $620.80 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $613.18 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.17:1), $596.46 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.17:1) & $590.13/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.04:1) price levels, with resistance at the $637.01/share (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF declined -1.28% last week, as the small cap index fell out of favor after being the strongest of the four majors the week prior.

Their RSI is trending higher from the neutral 50 level & sits currently at 52.37, while their MACD is bearish.

Volumes were +18.36% higher than the prior year’s average (39,284,000 vs. 33,190,239), which should raise some eyebrows given that the two highest volume sessions of the week were declining.

Monday began the week on a gap up open, but ti all went downhill from there & bears stepped in to force the session downhill & to close lower than it opened on the second lowest volume of the week, a reflection of profit taking from the prior Friday’s gap up session & fear beginning to surround the small cap names after a strong previous week.

Tuesday opened on a gap lower to below the $250/share level, attempted higher & was denied by the bears & ultimately settled down to result in a spinning top candle for the day, indicating that there was a lot of uncertainty in the market when combined with the week’s lowest Volume.

Wednesday began on another gap down, rallied higher to break above $250/share temporarily, before selling off to a daily low of $244.69/share, before recovering to close in-line with the 10 day moving average, signaling that the near-term trend had come under fire.

Thursday provided confirmation of this, as another gap down open resulted in IWM briefly climbing higher above the 10 day moving average’s resistance, but Sellers came in & fored IWM lower on more profit taking & the window formed the previous Friday was closed.

What’s alarming about Thursday’s show of weakness is that the day resulted in a spinning top candle on the low end of the day’s range, simultaneously on the week’s second highest volume, none of which paints a particularly rosy picture for the small cap index.

Friday confirmed this, as a gap up open tested lower, before running up higher to test the resistance of the 10 day moving average, but ultimately ended as a spinning top, signaling uncertainty heading into the weekend.

Heading into a new week the upside case for IWM also lies somewhat on the strength/weakness of SPY, QQQ & DIA, as we’re not at a stage in the market where a bank run on those would prop IWM higher, in fact it would make the small cap names appear even more risky in most cases (particularly when you reference the 52-week highs/lows from Friday mentioned above).

The consolidation case currently looks like IWM oscillating between the 10 & 50 day moving averages, as they await an upside or downside catalyst, as the medium-term trendline has crept to ~2% away from the short-term trendline.

The downside case will also rely heavily on the severity of the other major index’s losses, as IWM has more local support levels due to how it climbs slower & steadier than the other three.

In the event IWM declines, reference the table below for their historic Buyer:Seller (Seller:Buyer) sentiment at each price level that they’ve traded at over the past ~2 years.

IWM has support at the $242.45 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.19:1), $241.69 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.19:1), $240.76 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.19:1) & $239.79/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.56:1) price levels, with resistance at the $247.15 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $248.48 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $252.77/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF added +0.73% last week, as it was the second favorite among the major indexes.

Their RSI is currently flat at the 64.88 level, while their MACD is bullish, but beginning to show signs of a waning histogram & a possible bearish crossover by midweek.

Volumes were +114.45% higher than the prior year’s average (8,246,000 vs. 3,845,099.6), which is cause for concern given that the two of the three highest sessions were declining & clear profit taking with a side of being unenthused.

Monday the week opened on a gap higher, straddling the $475/share level & resulting in the lowest volume session of the week & a doji candle, indicating that ~$475/share is where market participants felt comfortable “waiting & seeing”.

Tuesday also opened on a gap higher, and began showing the faults in DIA’s foundation.

The week’s second highest volume came as profits from the three gap open in a row sessions began being ripped off of the table, and the $480/share level was not broken above.

Wednesday opened slightly higher, ran up to above $480/share, before tumbling to temporarily break down thought the $475/share level, as the profit taking of the day produced the highest volume session of the week & a clear indication that there was downside appetite in the air.

Thursday echoed this sentiment, where a gap down open managed to push higher to above $480/share, but profit-taking again set in intraday & forced a spinning top candle at the close, signaling that there was downside appetite, and a clear, general uncertainty in the air.

Friday this theme continued, where a gap up open resulted in a doji just above the $475/share level, leaving the question based on the body if it is a dragonfly doji that will prove higher in the near-term, or if the long lower shadow is hinting at further downside pain to come, as day-over-day lower highs & lower lows have both been a common story of the week.

Heading into the new week, the upside story remains the same & the story of last week’s volume plus lower highs/lows each day towards midweek to the end of the week makes it seem unlikely to occur.

The consolidation case looks like an extension of what we saw from Tuesday on, where DIA stays range bound & eventually oscillates around the 10 DMA as it awaits an upside/downside catalyst.

To the downside things become interesting, as the blue chip index is more likely to be “bought & held” than the other three aforementioned indexes, but given that its so near all-time highs any selloff may be veiwed as a chance at profits to investors & trigger a more serious move.

In the event that the 10 DMA gives way, watch to see if the 50 DMA is able to stop the bleeding & provide support.

If not, the $454.41/share level is up next for support & it resides in a Seller zone (1.1:1), which also makes the $448.55/share supportlevel the gatekeeper lower as it falls next in line.

DIA has support at the $472.11 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $470.22 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $461.94 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.36:1) & $454.41/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.1:1) price levels, with resistance at the $480.39/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

The Week Ahead

Monday the week begins with S&P Final U.S. Manufacturing PMI data at 9:45 am, before ISM Manufacturing & (pending government shutdown) Construction Spending data at 10 am & Fed Governor Cook speaking at 2pm.

Affiliated Managers, Ares Management, Axsome Therapeutics, BioCryst Pharma, Bruker, CNA Financial, Freshpet, fuboTV, Hess Midstream Partners, IDEXX Labs, Kontoor Brands, Krystal Biotech, Liquidia Technologies, Napco Security Systems, onsemi, Pediatrix Medical Group, Pinnacle West, Public Service & Vertex all report earnings before Monday’s opening bell, followed by Palantir Technologies, ADTRAN, Air Lease, Ameresco, Atlas Energy Solutions, Boise Cascade, BWX Technologies, Cabot, Capital Southwest Corp., Clorox, CNO Financial, Comstock, Corebridge Financial, Coterra Energy, Denny’s, Diamondback Energy, Eastman Chemical, Ensign Group, EverQuote, Exact Sciences, Fabrinet, Franco-Nevada, Goodyear Tire, Halozyme Therapeutics, Harmonic, Helios Technologies, Hims & Hers Health, Hologic, IAC Inc., ICHOR Corporation, Innovative Industrial Properties, Innovex International, Insperity, Inspire Medical Systems, JBT Marel Corporation, JELD-WEN, Kforce, Lattice Semi, National Storage Affiliates, Navitas Semiconductor, New Mountain Finance, ONE Gas, Ormat Tech, Otter Tail Power, Paymentus, PotlatchDeltic, Primoris Services, Qorvo, Realty Income, RingCentral, Ryman Hospitality, Sanmina, Sarepta Therapeutics, SBA Comm, Simon Properties, Syndax Pharmaceuticals, Tennant, UFP Technologies, Unum Group, V2X, Vertex Pharma, Viper Energy Partners, Vornado Rlty Trust, Voyager Technologies, Williams Cos, Xenon Pharmaceuticals & ZoomInfo after the session’s close.   

U.S. Trade Deficit data is scheduled for 8:30 am on Tuesday, followed by Factory Orders & Job Openings at 10 am (all of which are dependent on the government reopening).

Tuesday morning features earnings reports from AdaptHealth, ADM, ADT, Amicus Therapeutics, Anywhere Real Estate, Axcelis Tech, Ball Corp, Brightstar Lottery, Broadridge Financial, Capri Holdings, CDW, Colliers, Dave, Inc., Driven Brands, Eaton, Ecovyst, Enpro Inc., Exelon, Expeditors International, Ferrari, First Watch Restaurant Group, Fortis, Gartner, Genius Sports, Global Payments, Graphic Packaging, Hamilton Lane, Harley-Davidson, Harmony Biosciences, Henry Schein, Hertz Global, Hillman Solutions Corp., Ingredion, IPG Photonics, Knife River Corp., Kymera Therapeutics, LGI Homes, Life Time, Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Marathon Petroleum, Marriott, Martin Marietta, McGraw Hill, Molson Coors Brewing, MPLX LP, Netskope, NNN REIT, Norwegian Cruise Line, Novanta, Ocular Therapeutix, Pfizer, PJT Partners, Portillo’s, Premier, Rhythm Pharmaceuticals, Sealed Air, Shoals Technologies, Shopify, Silicon Labs, Sotera Health, Spotify, Stanley Black & Decker, SunCoke Energy, The Marzetti Company, Thomson Reuters, TIC Solutions, Inc., TopBuild, TPG Inc., Uber, UL Solutions Inc., Uniti Group, Vital Farms, Waters, Webull Corporation, WhiteFiber, Wingstop, Xometry, Yum China, Yum! Brands & Zoetis, before  A10 Networks, Advanced Energy, Advanced Micro Devices, AES, Aflac, Allegiant Travel, Amentum Holdings, American Financial, American International, Amgen, Andersons, Angi Inc., Arista Networks, Ashland, Assurant, Astera Labs, Aura Minerals, Axon, Benchmark Electronics, Cadre Holdings, California Resources, CareDx, CAVA Group, Chord Energy, Clean Energy Fuels, Corcept Therapeutics, Corsair Gaming, Corteva, Coupang, Day One Biopharmaceuticals, Douglas Emmett, Equitable Holdings, Essential Utilities, Eversource Energy, Everus, Exelixis, Flywire, GoodRx, Grocery Outlet, GXO Logistics, Hinge Health, Horace Mann, Innospec, Intapp, International Flavors, Jack Henry, Jackson Financial, Kinross Gold, Kodiak Gas Services, Kratos Defense and Security, Kyndryl, Limbach, Live Nation, LTC Properties, Lumentum, Macerich, MARA Holdings Inc., Masimo, MasterBrand, Match Group, Matson, Mercury, Mirum Pharmaceuticals, MNTN, Inc., Mosaic, NANO Nuclear Energy, NMI Holdings, O-I Glass, Orion Engineered Carbons, Ovintiv, Par Pacific, Paylocity, Perdoceo Education, Pinterest, PROCEPT BioRobotics, PTC Therapeutics, Qiagen, Qualys, Radian Group, Rapid7, Revolve Group, Rivian Automotive, Select Water Solutions, Sixth Street Specialty Lending, Skyline Champion, Skyworks, SM Energy, StubHub Holdings, Suncor Energy, Super Micro Computer, Supernus Pharma, Tanger Factory, Tempus AI, Teradata, The Baldwin Group, Toast, Trex, Ultragenyx Pharma, Upstart, Veracyte, Voya Financial, Western Midstream, XPLR Infrastructure, LP & Zeta Global report after the closing bell.

Wednesday brings us ADP Employment data at 8:15 am, S&P Final U.S. Services PMI data at 9:45 am & ISM Services data at 10 am.

McDonald’s, ACM Research, Acushnet, Adient, Alight, ArcBest, Ardmore Shipping, Arvinas, Avanos Medical, Avient, Avista, Bentley Systems, Bio-Techne, Brinks, Bullish, Bunge, Cameco, Caris Life Sciences, Cencora, Centuri Holdings, CGI Group, Charles River, Choice Hotels, Cinemark, DigitalOcean, Dine Brands, Dynatrace, Emerson, Establishment Labs, Fidelity National Info, Fiverr, Fortrea, Frontdoor, Green Plains, Humana, InMode, Iron Mountain, Johnson Controls, Jones Lang LaSalle, Kennametal, Klarna Group plc, Kornit Digital, Lemonade, Lineage, LivaNova, Louisiana-Pacific, Mannkind, Metsera, Middleby, National Vision, New York Times, Northwest Natural, Owens Corning, Parsons, Payoneer, Performance Food Group, Perrigo, Plains All American, PPL Corp, Recursion Pharmaceuticals, Royalty Pharma, Sabre, Scotts Miracle-Gro, Sempra Energy, Sleep Number, SolarEdge Technologies, Sonos, Southwest Gas, Sportradar Group AG, Steven Madden, Sunoco LP, Taboola, Teva Pharma, Trimble, Unity Software, Wolverine, XPEL & Zimmer Biomet all report earnings on Wednesday morning, followed by Robinhood Markets, Acadia Healthcare, ACADIA Pharmaceuticals, ACV Auctions, Adaptive Biotechnologies, ADMA Biologics, Albany International, Albemarle, Allstate, Almonty Industries, Alpha and Omega Semi, AMC Entertainment, Amcor, American States Water, Amplitude, APA Corp., AppLovin, Arm Holdings plc, Array Tech, Atmos Energy, B&G Foods, B2Gold, Barrett Business, Black Hills Corp, Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp, Bumble, Centrus Energy, Certara, CF Industries, Chime, Coherent, CONMED, CoreCivic, Corpay, Coty, Crane NXT, CRH Plc., CSG Systems, Curtiss-Wright, Cytokinetics, Deluxe, Devon Energy, DoorDash, Duolingo, Dutch Bros, e.l.f. Beauty, Encore Capital, Energy Transfer, Enersys, Enovix, Equinox Gold, Excelerate Energy, Fair Isaac, Fastly, Figma, Fortinet, Forward Air, Freshworks, Frontier Group Holdings, FS KKR Capital, Genco Shipping & Trading, GFL Environmental, Grand Canyon Education, Greif, Hecla Mining, Herbalife Nutrition, HighPeak Energy, Host Hotels, HubSpot, Informatica, Ingevity, Interparfums, IonQ, Jazz Pharma, Joby Aviation, Kemper, Kinetik, Klaviyo, LegalZoom.com, Light & Wonder, LiveRamp, Lucid Group, Lyft, Magnite, Manitowoc, Marqeta, Marriott Vacations, Maze Therapeutics, McKesson, MetLife, Miami International Holdings, MKS Inc., Murphy Oil, National Fuel Gas, NCR Atleos, Nutrien, Open Text, OPENLANE, Pattern Group, Paycom Software, Pebblebrook Hotel Trust, Penumbra, Permian Resources, Power Integrations, Primerica, Procore Technologies, PTC, Q2 Holdings, Qualcomm, QuidelOrtho, Rayonier, Remitly Global, Resideo, Revolution Medicines, RLJ Lodging Trust, Root, Inc., Royal Gold, RxSight, Sabra Health Care REIT, Safehold, Schrodinger, Seadrill Ltd, Sezzle, Sinclair Broadcast, SiTime, Slide Insurance Holdings, Snap, South Bow Corporation, Sprout Social, Steris, Sturm Ruger, Talen Energy, Talos Energy, Titan America, TKO Group Holdings, Tronox, Tutor Perini, U.S. Physical Therapy, Veeco Instruments, Vir Biotechnology, Warrior Met Coal, Watts Water Tech., Workiva & ZipRecruiter have their calls after the closing bell.  

Initial Jobless Claims & U.S. Productivity data are scheduled for release on Thursday at 8:30 am, before Wholesale Inventories data at 10 am (all dependent on the government shutdown ending), Fed President Williams speaking at 11 am, Fed President Paulson speaking at 4:30 pm & Fed President Musalem speaking at 5:30 pm.

Thursday morning’s earnings calls include AAON, ACI Worldwide, Advanced Drainage Systems, Air Products, Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Altice USA, Ameren, Americold Realty Trust, Appian, ArcelorMittal, Aspen Aerogels, AstraZeneca, ATS Corp, Autohome, BCE Inc, Becton Dickinson, BeOne Medicines, Bloomin’ Brands, Canada Goose, Canadian Natural Resources, Cars.com, Clear Secure, Cogent Communications, Collegium Pharmaceutical, Commerce.com, ConocoPhillips, Core Natural Resources, Cummins, D-Wave Quantum, Datadog, Dentsply Sirona, Ducommun, DuPont, Enovis Corporation, EPAM Systems, Evergy, Gogo, Granite Construction, Haemonetics, Hyatt Hotels, Insulet, International Seaways, Janus International Group, Kelly Services, Kenvue, Kimbell Royalty Partners, Krispy Kreme, Lamar Advertising, Lantheus Holdings, LifeStance Health Group, Ligand Pharma, Lightspeed, MACOM Technology, Marex Group plc, MasterCraft, MDU Resources, Moderna, N-able, NCR Voyix Corporation, NetScout Systems, Nexstar, Nomad Foods, Nova Measuring, NRG Energy, Olaplex, Oscar Health, Papa John’s, Parker-Hannifin, PENN Entertainment, Planet Fitness, Playtika, Prestige Consumer, Primo Brands Corporation, Privia Health, Ralph Lauren, Rockwell Automation, RXO, Inc., ScanSource, SharkNinja, Shift4 Payments, Somnigroup International, Stagwell, Stevanato Group S.p.A., Strategic Education, Sun Life, Tapestry, TC Energy, Tecnoglass, Teleflex, TripAdvisor, Under Armour, United Parks & Resorts Inc., US Foods, Vericel, Viatris, Vistra Corp., Walker & Dunlop, Warby Parker, Warner Bros. Discovery & YETI Holdings, with reports coming in from 10x Genomics, Affirm, Airbnb, Akamai Tech, Alarm.com, Alliant Energy, American Healthcare REIT, AMN Healthcare, Applied Optoelectronics, Archer Aviation, Arlo Technologies, Artivion, Assured Guaranty, Astrana Health, AvePoint, Barings BDC, Bill.com, BlackLine, Block, Brighthouse Financial, Camden Property, CarGurus, Celanese, Century Aluminum, Chemours, Chesapeake Utilities, Civitas Resources, Con Edison, Concentra, Crinetics Pharmaceuticals, Diamondrock Hospitality, Diodes, Doximity, DraftKings, Dropbox, EverCommerce, EVERTEC, Evolent Health, eXp World Holdings, Expedia Group, Fidelity National, FIGS, Inc., Five9, Flowers Foods, Fox Factory Holding, Gen Digital, Genpact, Globus Medical, Grindr, H & R Block, Huntsman, ICU Medical, indie Semiconductor, Innodata, IREN Limited, JFrog, Karman Space and Defense, Lemaitre Vascular, LifeMD, Lionsgate Studios, Mettler-Toledo, Microchip, Monster Beverage, MP Materials, National Health, NerdWallet, News Corp., nLIGHT, Northern Oil & Gas, NuScale Power, Omada Health, OneStream, Onto Innovation, Opendoor Technologies, OUTFRONT Media, Palomar Holdings, PAR Technology, Peloton, Pembina Pipeline, Progyny, QuinStreet, QXO, Inc, Rackspace Technology, RB Global, Solventum, SoundHound AI, StepStone Group, Sunrun, Sweetgreen, Synaptics, Take-Two, Tandem Diabetes Care, Texas Roadhouse, The Trade Desk, Trupanion, Universal Display, USA Rare Earth, Victory Capital, VTEX, Wheaton Precious Metals, WillScot Mobile Mini, Wynn Resorts, Xponential Fitness, Yelp, Ziff Davis & Zymeworks following the session’s close. 

Friday the week winds down with U.S. Employment Report Data, U.S. Unemployment Rate, U.S. Hourly Wages & Hourly Wages Year-over-Year at 8:30 am (all dependent on the government shutdown abating), before Fed President Logan speaks at 9:30 am, Consumer Sentiment (prelim) data is announced at 10 am & Consumer Credit data at 3pm.

Algonquin Power & Utilities, AMC Networks, American Axle, ANI Pharma, Atmus Filtration Technologies, Brookfield Infrastructure, CNH Industrial, Conduent, Constellation Energy, Delek US Holdings, DoubleVerify, Duke Energy, Enbridge, Essent Group, Fluor, Franklin Resources, Gray Media, KKR, Koppers Holdings, MarketAxess, Perella Weinberg Partners, Six Flags Entertainment, Sunstone Hotel, Sylvamo, Telephone & Data, Telus & Wendy’s all report their most recent before Friday’s opening bell.

See you back here next week!

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM OR DIA AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***