Category: Market News, Research & Commentary

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF added +0.86% last week, while the VIX closed at 18.03, indicating an implied one day move of +/-1.14% & an implied one month move of +/-5.21%.

Their RSI is advancing towards the overbought level of 70 & sits currently at 66.24, while their MACD is bullish, but its histogram is signaling that it is losing steam following last week’s relatively flat performance.

Volumes were -40.04% below the previous year’s average levels (38,592,000 vs. 64,338,465), as market participants have clearly begun to show signs of caution in regards to the U.S. election & international relations in October.

For comparison, using April 21, 2024’s Market Review Note‘s prior year’s average volume of 78,101,687 (last peak volume was 4/19/2024 before volumes began to significantly decline) the current prior year’s average volume is -17.62% lower & the past week’s volume was -50.59% lower.

Now let’s look at what happened last week.

Monday kicked the week off on a gap up session that continued to climb higher, closing with only a small upper shadow, but on less than stellar volume.

Profit taking & warning lights began flashing on Tuesday, when the day’s session resulted in a bearish engulfing candle on a declining session on volume that eclipsed the rest of the month, minus 10/1/2024’s declining session’s volume.

Wednesday opened in-line with Tuesday’s close & saw more selling temporarily as more investors took profits following Monday’s gap up & the week before’s advances (there was no market note last week as I was on vacation).

The session also had the lowest volume of the week, and given the week was weak, it may be the start of investors becoming extremely cautious as we run up to the U.S. Presidential Election.

The cautious attitude continued into Thursday, as while the session advanced on the day to set a new all-time high for SPY, it opened on a gap up, nudged higher (minuscule upper shadow), before tumbling to close just above the prior day’s close, closing lower than it opened (bearish).

Thursday’s volume was also the second lowest of the week, adding confirmation to the already bearish looking set up.

Friday’s session opened midway through Thursday’s candle’s real body range & resulted in a hanging man candle that closed lower than it opened, with limited test to the upside (small upper shadow) & the day’s low was slightly higher than Thursday’s low.

What is even more interesting about Friday’s session is that the candle formed a harami pattern with Thursday’s.

Typically an advancing session (+0.38% intraday) is considered bullish, which would mark this a bullish harami.

However, given the fact that it closed below its open & resulted in a filled candle, there is plenty of bearish sentiment & reason to interpret it as a bearish harami, which when paired with the low volume & other bearish elements of the week reason for caution moving into the week ahead.

Aside from the previously mentioned potential market moving news, there is a plethora of earnings reports due out this week that are all outlined in “The Week Ahead” at the bottom of this article which may be a catalyst for more volatility in the coming week, along with the Fed’s Beige Book being released on Wednesday.

Those earnings calls will be something to keep an eye on in the coming week, as will the volume levels of the week, as if Wednesday’s volume stands as a spike it will likely down the road be viewed as a reversal point, especially with how bearish the rest of the week was (even if it did advance slightly higher).

The next order of business will be to watch how the 10 day moving average holds up as a support level in the event of a leg down, as it is currently at a level where there is not much historic volume data to based how investor sentiment may be should that test come.

While there is a light support zone between $561.89 & $563.43, that begins -3.62% from Friday’s closing price.

It’s worth noting that $561.89 is the 50 day moving average & it will continue rising as time progresses, pinching the zone smaller & smaller as days pass.

While the touch-points in this zone are all historically dominated by Buyers at a rate of 10:1 by volume (see “Volume Sentiment” link below), this range has seen limited testing & sits near price extremes, so it has not seen much in terms of testing.

This can be seen when you consider the gap downs & wide-range declining sessions that took place at these levels, making any retest of these levels dilute the historic Buyer sentiment.

It would also be prudent to watch SPY’s RSI, as the last time it approached the overbought 70 mark it retreated rather than crossing over it like we’ve seen happen a majority of the other times it’s approached it this year.

If there is not an increase in volume as it approaches that level again it is a signal to take caution.

Also, referring to the 10 DMA point above, should price drop below it & it becomes a resistance level, look at the prior year’s examples of what’s happened when this occurs.

Given they’re at all-time highs there is little to review regarding their upside.

The table below breaks down volume sentiment at each price level SPY has traded at over the past ~2 years & can be referenced to see how strong or weak SPY’s support or resistance levels may be (the link explains how to read the table).

SPY has support at the $578.72 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $563.43 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 10:1), $562.48 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 10:1) & $561.89/share (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 10:1) price levels, with resistance at the $586.12/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF that tracks the NASDAQ 100 gained +0.22%, faring the worst of the major four index ETFs.

Their RSI is rising towards overbought levels & currently sits at 60.85, while their MACD is has flattened out but it bullish after dipping below the signal line for a couple of sessions.

Volumes were -33.43% lower than the prior year’s average volume (27,278,000 vs. 40,977,632), which as we just outlined in SPY is a reason to consider taking caution in the near-term.

Using the same 4/21/2024 market data as SPY’s comparison (49,155,742 was the average annual volume), the current average past year’s volume for QQQ is -16.64% lower, while last week’s average volume was -44.51% lower than that benchmark.

Now that the A.I. & Semiconductor trade has begun to wane in popularity we’ve witnessed a big shift in volumes between SPY & QQQ vs. IWM & DIA.

As noted, SPY & QQQ have moved in a much more similar manner to one another than the latter two index ETFs.

QQQ’s week also began on a gap up session where the day’s high marked a recent resistance level on volumes that were nothing to write home about.

Tuesday saw a -1.34% decline on the week’s highest volume, which is second highest for October minus 10/1/2024’s declining volume & formed a very large bearish engulfing candle.

Much of this was likely profit taking in the wake of the previous week’s run up & it should be noted that the 10 day moving average’s support managed to hold up, despite the day’s low testing it.

Bearishness & cautious sentiment carried on Wednesday, when QQQ opened opened just above the 10 day moving average’s support, briefly broke through it but managed to close the day as a dragonfly doji.

Dragonfly dojis tend to signal that there may be a price reversal move coming up, but given that there is no trend to reverse from & the low volume.

Thursday opened with a glimmer of optimism on a gap up, only to drag lower throughout the day & close in-line with the 10 DMA lower than it opened, another sign of caution.

Friday continued to theme of risk-off/take caution ahead as the session opened midway between Thursday’s real body range & closed as a harami cross.

Typically this would indicate that the current trend may be winding down & setting up to reverse, but the recent trading activity has been relatively choppy & not strongly trending in one way or another.

With this in mind, the week ahead will be time to watch the price of QQQ in relation to the 10 day moving average.

We’ll likely see a retest of it based on Fed speakers & earnings calls at some point in the week & how strong that support level holds up will be a key determinant of QQQ’s near-term performance.

This is going to be especially important given that the price range it sits in now is Seller dominated 3:1 over the past 2-3 years & the next two zones beneath it (table below) are Buyer dominated, but not by much.

If those zones are passed through we may see 5%+ declines from Friday’s closing price as the two zones beneath it favor the Sellers.

There is also only one support level that falls into those two aforementioned Buyer zones, which will make it difficult for QQQ to find footing without sliding into those Seller zones.

In terms of the upside potential, the $498.83 mark is going to be an area to keep an eye on, as if volumes improve & prices are driven up above it there may be a possible run at the recent all-time high of $502.81.

QQQ has support at the $493.70 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.7:0*), $491.55 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 3:1), $484.86 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.6:0*) & $477.40/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.05:1) price levels, with resistance at the $498.83 (Volume Sentiment: ) & $502.81/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.6:0*) price levels.

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF advanced +1.98% last week, as small caps had the strongest week of the major four index ETFs.

Their RSI is trending down towards neutral but still sits closer to overbought levels at 63.84, while their MACD is bullish, but beginning to show signs of a bearish rollover in the near-term.

Volumes were -35.74% below the previous year’s average (22,194,000 vs. 34,538,583), which is bad given that IWM currently has a higher past year’s average volume than it did in April.

Compared to the 4/21/2024 market data where IWM’s prior year’s average volume was 34,864,840, IWM’s current prior year’s average volume is +0.94% higher, while last week’s volume was -35.74% lower.

Monday IWM started off on a sleepy note, when the week began with a very low volume session that opened just above Friday’s close, tested lower before trudging up to close the day out as an advancing session, but with lackluster participation.

Tuesday is when things began to get murky for IWM, as the session opened slightly higher, tested briefly into Monday’s range, before rocketing higher to break above the $225/share mark, when folks began taking profits & forced the price down so low that the day ended as a high wave candle & spinning top.

This is troubling as the real body of the candle is concentrated at the bottom of the day’s range & the upper shadow is much higher than the lower, indicating that there was not enough bullish sentiment to keep climbing higher.

This makes Wednesday’s candle even more interesting, as the day began on a gap up, briefly tested lower before powering higher on the week’s highest volume.

It set the stage for the range that the rest of the week would trade in for IWM, as Thursday opened slightly higher, only to test down to the bottom of Wednesday’s candle’s real body & find bullish support around the $225/share mark & closed as a hanging man candle (bearish).

Bearish sentiment carried on into Friday as investors were not willing to carry small cap risk into the weekend & continued taking profits from the run-up of the past week.

While the last two sessions of the week were bearish, the volumes behind the movements was not particularly strong.

This week will be important to watch how the window created by Wednesday’s gap up holds up or if it becomes filled, as Wednesday’s session’s high was unable to reach the 52-week high set in July.

Should that window be filled there will be a pair of support touch-points in the $221.57-221.69 (first number may increase as it is the 10 DMA) which will prove to be vital for IWM’s price, as should they break down there are no other support levels until it enters a Seller dominated price zone where they’ve outnumbered Buyers 3.3:1.

The good news is that this support level is the 50 day moving average, which will continue higher, but if IWM declines below that & both the 10 & 50 DMAs are applying resistance & downward pressure on the price there are no support levels again until $210.57.

Volume will be imperative to watch as well, as it may lend clues into which way IWM will break out as the current volume levels are lackluster & reflect cautious sentiment.

IWM has support at the $221.69 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.86:1), $221.57 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.86:1), $216.16 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 3.3:1) & $210.57/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2:1) price levels, with resistance at the $227.17 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.6:0*) & $227.85/share (52-Week High, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.6:0*) price levels.

DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF climbed +0.91% last week, having the second strongest week behind IWM.

Their RSI has flattened just beneath the overbought level & currently sits at 68.43, while their MACD is still bullish, but may be losing steam if they do not advance early in the next week following the past two days’ relatively flat performance.

Volumes were -20.98% below the previous year’s average volume (2,762,000 vs. 3,495,512), as investors have even grown cautious around the blue chip index names.

Compared to the 4/21/2024 market data when DIA’s average prior year’s volume was 3,508,088, DIA’s current prior year’s average volume is -0.36% lower & their past week’s volume was -21.27% lower.

DIA’s week began on a bullish note, although their RSI was nudging up against the overbought level, which helped pave the way for the more cautious approach the rest of the week took.

They opened just below Friday’s close before powering higher, but it should be noted it was on the week’s weakest volume.

Tuesday opened lower & was unable to find any footing as profit taking pushed DIA’s price down into the close on the week’s second highest volume, which indicated that in addition to the desire to capture profits, there was also a bit of uneasiness gripping into DIA’s pricing.

Wednesday’s session produced a bullish engulfing candle, but again, on light volume which did not indicate that there was a potential breakout at-hand.

Thursday gapped up, but the day resulted in a dragonfly doji with the week’s highest volume.

This would normally be something of more interest & perhaps carry more bullish implications, but given it set a new all-time high & tested down almost to Wednesday’s high it appears that market participants were not overly eager to continue pushing higher.

This was confirmed Friday when the session resulted in another dragonfly doji, on lower volumes, that also saw a bit of bearish selling pressure as market participants were ready to take some chips down from the table heading into the weekend.

Friday was also the second lowest volume of the week, which makes Thursday’s price movement look even less remarkable.

Heading into this week it will be interesting to watch if DIA is able to trudge any higher, given that they hit the all-time high so late in the week (Friday).

The window created by Thursday’s open will also be an area to watch in to see if it becomes filled, as well as DIA’s RSI, as it has flattened out just below the overbought mark of 70 & will need to split one way or the other in the near-term.

While the table below is one month old & may need to be refreshed, the low volume environment DIA has traded in has caused a set up where for the next -2.92% from Friday’s closing price there is limited Buyer:Seller information to gauge sentiment.

With that in mind, keep an eye on the volumes that you see coming in during the week to get an idea as to how market participants may be slanted in terms of their near-term outlook.

Also, should the 10 Day Moving Average’s support break down, there is support at the $426.05/share level (-1.52%), before nothing for an additional -1.86%, which is when DIA returns to Buyer dominated price levels for another ~3%.

One thing of note though is that with the exception of $408-411.99, these Buyer zones are relatively untested so far by Sellers, and it would be wise to keep that in mind should these price levels be tested.

DIA has support at the $427.18 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $426.05 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $418.12 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 02.:0*) & $415.17/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.8:0*) price levels, with resistance at the $433.20/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

The Week Ahead

Monday kicks off with Fed President Logan speaking at 8:55 am, followed by U.S. Leading Economic Indicators data at 10 am.

Sandy Spring Banc reports earnings Monday morning before the opening bell before AGNC Investment, Alexandria RE, BOK Financial, Cadence Bank, Cathay Bancorp, Equity Lifestyle Properties, HealthStream, Hexcel, Medpace Holdings, Nucor, Simpson Manufacturing, W.R. Berkley & Zions Bancorp report after the session’s close.

Fed President Harker speaks Tuesday morning at 10 am.

Tuesday morning’s earnings calls include GE Aerospace, Verizon, 3M, A.O. Smith, Atlantic Union Bankshares, Banc of California, Comcast, Community Financial System, Danaher, Denny’s, Fiserv, Freeport-McMoRan, GATX, General Motors, Genuine Parts, Herc Holdings, Interpublic, Invesco, Kimberly-Clark, Lockheed Martin, Moody’s, Old National Bancorp, PACCAR, Pentair, Philip Morris International, Polaris Industries, PulteGroup, Quest Diagnostics, RTX & Sherwin-Williams, with Agree Realty, Baker Hughes, Brandywine Realty, Canadian National Railway, CoStar Group, East West Bancorp, Enova International, Enphase Energy, Highwoods Properties, JBT Corp, Manhattan Associates, Matador Resources, Nabors Industries, National Bank, Packaging Corp of America, PennyMac, Range Resources, Retail Opportunity Investments, Robert Half, Seagate Technology, Stride, Texas Instruments, Trustmark, Valmont Industries, Veritex Holdings & Vicor all reporting after the closing bell.

Wednesday brings us Existing Home Sales data at 10 am & the Fed’s Beige Book at 2pm.

Amphenol, AT&T, Avery Dennison, Boeing, CME Group, Coca-Cola, Constellium, Evercore, GE Vernova, General Dynamics, Healthcare Services Group, Hilton, KBR, Lennox International, Lithia Motors, Mr. Cooper Group, New Oriental Education & Technology, NextEra Energy, NextEra Energy Partners, Northern Trust, Old Dominion, PROG Holdings, Prosperity Bancshares, Roper, Stifel Financial, Taylor Morrison Home, Teledyne Technologies, Thermo Fisher Scientifi, TransUnion, Travel + Leisure Co, UniFirst, United Community Banks, Vertiv Holdings, Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies, Watsco & Winnebago are all due to report earnings before Wednesday’s opening bell, with Tesla, Align Technology, Ameriprise Financial, ASGN Incorporated, CACI International, Canadian Pacific Kansas City, Celestica, Century Communities, Churchill Downs, Community Health, Core Labs, EastGroup, Equity Commonwealth, Essential Properties Realty Trust, Globe Life, Goosehead Insurance, Graco, Greenbrier, International Business Machines, ICON, Impinj, Kaiser Aluminum, Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings, Lam Research, Las Vegas Sands, Lending Club, Mattel, MaxLinear, Moelis, Molina Healthcare, MSA Safety, Newmont, O’Reilly Automotive, Oceaneering International, Pathward Financial, Patterson-UTI, Pegasystems, Plexus, QuantumScape, Raymond James, Rollins, Sallie Mae, SEI Investments, ServiceNow, Simulations Plus, South State, Stewart Info, T-Mobile US, Teradyne, Tyler Technologies, United Rentals, Veralto, Viking Therapeutics, Waste Connections, WesBanco, Western Union, Whirlpool & Wyndham Hotels & Resorts reporting after the session’s close.

Initial Jobless Claims data comes out Thursday morning at 8:30 am, followed by S&P Flash U.S. Services PMI & S&P Flash U.S. Manufacturing PMI data at 9:45 am & New Homes Sales data at 10 am.

Thursday morning’s earnings calls include ADT, Alkermes, Allegion, AllianceBernstein, American Airlines, Applied Industrial, Berkshire Hills Bancorp, Bread Financial, Brunswick, Carpenter Technology, Carrier Global, CBRE Group, Columbia Banking, Dover, Dow, DTE Energy, Euronet, Expro Group, First Merchants, FirstService, FTI Consulting, Harley-Davidson, Hasbro, Honeywell, Integer Holdings, Keurig Dr Pepper, KKR, Labcorp Holdings, Lear, Life Time, Lindsay Corp, LKQ, MSC Industrial, NASDAQ, NetScout Systems, Northrop Grumman, OSI Systems, Pacific Premier, Pool, Radius Recycling, Reliance, Rogers Communications, RPC, Ryder System, S&P Global, Simply Good Foods, Sonic Automotive, Southside Banc, Southwest Air, TechnipFMC, Teck Resources, Textron, Tractor Supply, TRI Pointe Homes, Union Pacific, United Parcel Service, Valero Energy, Valley National, Virtu Financial, Visteon, Wabash National, West Pharmaceutical Services & WEX, followed by Ameris Bancorp, AppFolio, AptarGroup, Arthur J. Gallagher, Associated Banc-Corp, Beyond, Boston Beer, Boyd Gaming, Capital One, Carlisle Cos, Cincinnati Financial, Coursera, Cousins Properties, Deckers Outdoor, Dexcom, Digital Realty Trust, Edwards Lifesciences, Exponent, Federated Hermes, First Financial Bancorp, First Interstate Bancsystem, Gaming and Leisure Properties, Glacier Bancorp, Hartford Financial, Healthpeak Properties, Kinsale Capital, Knowles, L3Harris, McGrath RentCorp, Minerals Technologies, Mohawk Industries, NOV Inc., Olin, Phillips Edison & Company, Piedmont Office Realty Trust, Principal Financial Group, ResMed, Seacoast Banking, Skechers USA, SPS Commerce, SS&C Technologies, Texas Roadhouse, Tronox, Universal Health, VeriSign, Western Digital, Weyerhaeuser & WSFS Financial after the closing bell.

Friday the week winds down with Durable-Goods Orders & Durable-Goods Minus Transportation data at 8:30 am, followed by Consumer Sentiment (final) data at 10 am.

The week winds down with Aon, AutoNation, Avantor, Balchem, Barnes Group, Booz Allen Hamilton, Centene, Colgate-Palmolive, First Hawaiian, Gentex, HCA, Lakeland Financial, New York Community, Newell Brands, Piper Sandler, Portland General Electric, Saia, Sanofi, Sensient, Stellar Bank, TriNet Group & WisdomTree reporting earnings before the session’s opening bell.

See you back here next week!

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM OR DIA AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF advanced +0.26% last week, having the best week of the major four index ETFs, while the VIX closed the week out at 19.21, indicating an implied one day move of +/-1.21% & a one month implied move of +/-5.55% for the S&P 500.

Their RSI is trending towards overbought levels after Friday’s gap up session & currently sits at 62.77, while their MACD is lightly bearish & sitting relatively flat with the signal line; again, as a result of Friday’s moves after crossing bearish a couple of days prior.

Volumes were still notably low, coming in -21.65% below the past year’s average volume (51,658,000 vs. 65,934,287), which as we highlighted last week marks a steep decline from where the prior year’s average volume readings were coming in at 5-6 months ago ( that market note here).

Monday began the week on a moderately upbeat note, there was the second highest volume of the week on a bullish session that despite dipping low enough to test the 10 day moving average’s support was able to find legs & close higher for the day.

It was not able to test the all-time high set the previous Thursday though, a clear sign that market participants have become exhausted & are not overly eager to chase SPY or its component stocks much higher.

Tuesday this uneasiness was confirmed when markets opened lower, and despite temporarily testing higher (shown by candle’s upper shadow), the session was largely bearish, with the week’s highest volume coming as bears pushed the price to break beneath the 10 DMA’s support temporarily, before rising back up to close the day just beneath it; clearly showing some cracks have formed.

Wednesday added more fuel to the fire, when SPY opened lower, tested lower, but ultimately rallied to end the day as an advancing session, but was unable to break above the resistance of the 10 DMA.

Things continued on this track into Thursday, when the session opened lower & floundered around all day to prove unable to break above the 10 DMA’s resistance, but to also show that there was not enough bearish sentiment among market participants to force prices to the low levels of the prior day.

Ultimately, Thursday ended in a spinning top candle in a declining session, indicating that there was a lot of uneasiness in the market & uncertainty regarding SPY.

This made Friday’s price action look like a squeeze, as the volume was the third highest of the week, but far below that of the top two days, prices opened on a gap up above the 10 DMA’s resistance, but intraday crossed below it’s support, only to rally higher but still close lower than the session opened as a hanging man candle.

While the MACD & RSI temporarily benefitted from this movement, it does not come across as being something with a solid foundation that is built to last & indicates that there is reason to be cautious in the coming week regarding SPY (And the other major indexes, for that matter).

Prices have similarly shown weakness in days leading up to days that manage to pop above the 10 DMA’s support only to fall in the coming sessions in May & August & given the existing weakness that we are seeing for SPY this looks to be the case coming into tomorrow.

Heading into the coming week the 10 DMA will continue to be an area of focus for SPY, as well as any volume clues that may come along with the price action, as despite overall volumes being lower than usual, there are still subtle clues that can be taken from the behavior of market participants about their current sentiment & next moves.

Last week’s support level notes will also be relevant this week (apologies for keeping this note brief, but I am on vacation & preparing for an all-day charity event tomorrow, as well as a hurricane the next day).

Those notes regarding the support for SPY all remain true, especially given the way the RSI & MACD moved over the past five days.

This week will feature a lot of Federal Reserve speakers, as well as the FOMC Minutes from the September meeting (released Wednesdays at 2pm) & big bank earnings kick off the next earnings season beginning on Friday.

Aside from that, there is also CPI, PPI & earnings from Domino’s Pizza & PepsiCo during the week, all of which will shed more light into the state of the average consumer & how they’re coping with inflation.

SPY has support at the $570.68 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $563.43 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 10:1), $562.48 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 10:1) & $553.17/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.92:1) price levels, with resistance at the $574.71/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF that tracks the NASDAQ 100 added +0.12% last week, having the second strongest showing of the major four index ETFs.

Their RSI is also trending higher towards overbought after Friday’s session & currently sits at 60.1, while their MACD remains bullish, but the MACD line is flat just above the signal line, which can lead to a bearish crossover in the coming days given how close together they are.

Volumes were -26.92% below the prior year’s average (30,578,000 vs. 41,840,661), as market participants are still not showing confidence or enthusiasm for the tech-heavy index.

Monday began on a similar shaky note as SPY, as while prices advanced for the session, they did test down to the 10 day moving average’s support during the sessions, indicating that there was downside appetite & blood in the water.

Bears came out in full force Tuesday, forcing prices to decline through the 10 DMA’s support on the week’s highest volume as investors began to show that QQQ is not on stable footing in the near-term & despite clawing back from the lows of the day’s candle’s lower shadow it was unable to close above the 10 DMA.

Wednesday the weakness & indecision theme continued, with QQQ opening lower, testing lower throughout the day & ultimately closing as a spinning top candle, indicating indecisiveness.

The 10 DMA’s resistance held up strength & it was the lowest volumes of the week, showing that there was not much conviction or enthusiasm for market participants to see QQQ go higher.

Thursday opened on a gap down & the bulls came back out to play, forcing QQQ higher, but still not being able to rally enough to force the close above the 10 DMA’s resistance, and the session closed out midway between the real body of Wednesday’s candle.

Friday reflected similar price movement that SPY saw, where a gap up day closed as a hanging man candle that closed lower than it opened while having crossed below the 10 DMA’s support, but managing to close above it.

This week keep an eye on the 10 DMA’s strength of support, as once it becomes a resistance level the recent tests have proven that it is likely to remain one for a while, as investors have not been keen to pick up risk much near it this past week.

The other primary concerns of last week are all still in play this week & can be found here: 9/29/2024’s Market Review Note.

QQQ has support at the $485.07 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.6:0*), $484.86 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.6:0*), $477.40 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.05:1) & $474.88/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.08:1) price levels, with resistance at the $493.70 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.7:0*) & $502.81/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.6:0*) price levels.

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF declined -0.54% last week, as the small cap index was the least favored among market participants.

Their RSI just bounced off of the neutral 50 mark & is moving higher towards overbought territory following Friday’s gap up session, while their MACD has crossed over bearishly last week.

Despite this bearish crossover the MACD line has flattened out, but it still sits beneath the signal line & is not likely to break above it this week, unless there is some major revelation that comes from the FOMC Minutes that not one has priced in, or a surprise in inflation data from CPI/PPI.

Volumes were also the lowest of all index ETFs, coming in -34.03% lower than the previous year’s average volume (23,138,000 vs. 35,072,964), as market participants have been less eager to get into small cap names over the past couple of weeks, after a rally in the index in the two weeks before that.

Monday started off IWM’s week on an ominous note, as IWM opened below the 10 day moving average, tested further lower, before rallying higher on volume that was average for the week (3rd highest), which was not a clear sign of strength & bullish conviction.

Tuesday the weakness really began to show, as the session opened about midway between the real body of Monday’s candle, but sellers drove the price down to below the $217.50/share mark & despite bull’s best efforts, the day closed out as a declining session.

Needless to say, this also happened to have been the highest volume session of the week, signaling that there was a lot of folks ready to hop out of the IWM pool at the price levels tested, and that while there was some appetite to push prices higher, the day’s close was still below the midway mark of the day’s range.

Wednesday the declines continued & indecision remained king as the session ended in a spinning top, but the close was higher than the opening gap down, signaling that there were muted signs of optimism for the small caps, and volumes were the lowest of the week.

Thursday’s long legged doji candle showed a lot of indecision & uncertainty in the small cap world for IWM, as prices covered the $217.23-215.08 range throughout the day, only to close slightly lower than they opened.

Friday’s +1.4% gap higher session was able to close above the 10 day moving average’s resistance, however the majority of the day’s price action took place below the 10 DMA’s resistance & the close was lower than the open, indicating weakness.

Friday did have the second highest volume of the week, which would be expected based on the wide range of prices that were tested that day, particularly to the downside.

Last week’s thoughts about the week ahead for IWM are all still also largely in play, as ultimately the week took a decline but only lost -0.54% W-o-W.

IWM has support at the $218.89 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 3.3:1), $214.37 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.69:1), $210.57 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2:1) & $208.58/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2:1) price levels, with resistance at the $221.69 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.86:1), $224.17 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.6:0*) & $227.85/share (52-Week High, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.6:0*) price levels.

DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF gained +0.11% last week, as investors were not overly eager to keep pushing higher after hitting recent all-time highs.

Their RSI is trending towards overbought levels & sits at 64.31 following Friday’s performance, while their MACD crossed over bearishly last week & remains below the signal line.

Volumes were -6.32% below the previous year’s average (3,314,000 vs. 3,537,391), and one thing of note is how the largest volume spike of the week was for a declining session.

Monday set the stage with a hanging man candle with “long legs” based on the lower shadow & appetite for downside DIA price movement it showed, as prices broke through the support of the 10 DMA before rallying back to close for an advancing session.

Tuesday opened lower, tested in the real body of Monday’s candle, before dunking below the 10 DMA & returning to close lower for the day straddling the waterline of the 10 DMA.

Again, the volume of Tuesday’s downside action speaks volumes about how market participants feel right now, as profit takers were met by enough buyers to still force prices back up to the 10 DMA.

Wednesday the negative sentiment continued, as prices opened in the middle of Tuesday’s real body, did not get much higher & ultimately dipped below the 10 DMA’s support again.

Bulls rushed in & were able to force the price to just back above the 10 DMA’s support level, but the session closed lower than it opened & the volumes for the day reflect low participation levels, meaning that despite the “positive” close, there was quite a bit to be negative about.

Thursday confirmed this when prices gapped lower, test higher towards the 10 DMA’s resistance but were rejected, only to test far lower & still close as a decline.

While there were enough buyers to force a large lower shadow, volumes were still meager; hardly a vote of confidence.

Friday DIA saw the same good fortunes as every index ETF above, a gap up open that was above the 10 DMA’s support, but they broke below it for a while before rallying to close higher & end the day with a hanging man candle on low volume.

This is reflecting bearish sentiment for the blue chip index, and all of last week’s observations for the week ahead items to watch are still in play.

Thank you for referring back to last week for these observations while I am working on this with limited time compared to usual.

DIA has support at the $421.68 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $415.32 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.8:0*), $412.11 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.8:0*) & $408.89/share (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.4:1) price levels, with resistance at the $426.20/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

The Week Ahead

Monday the week kicks off with Fed Governor Bowman speaking at 1pm, Consumer Credit data at 3pm & Fed President Musalem speaking at 6:30 pm.

Tuesday morning’ earnings calls feature PepsiCo & Accolade.

Fed Governor Kugler speaks at 3 am Tuesday, followed by NFIB Optimism Index data at 6 am, U.S. Trade Deficit data at 8:30 am, Fed President Bostic speaking at 12:45 pm & Fed Vice Chair Jefferson speaking at 7:30 pm.

Helen of Troy reports earnings Wednesday before the opening bell, with AZZ due to report following the closing bell.

Wednesday features Fed President Bostic speaking at 8 am, Fed President Logan speaking at 9:15 am, Wholesale Inventories data & Fed President Goolsbee speaking at 10:30 am, FOMC Minutes From The Fed’s September Meeting at 2pm & Fed President Daly speaking at 6 pm.

Thursday morning’s earnings reports include Delta Airlines, Domino’s Pizza, Neogen & Tilray.

Initial Jobless Claims, Consumer Price Index, Core CPI & Core CPI Year-over-Year data are all released at 8:30 am Thursday, before Fed Governor Cook speaks at 9:15 am, Fed President Barkin speaks at 10:30 am & Fed President Williams speaks at 11 am.

JP Morgan Chase, BlackRock, BNY Mellon, Fastenal & Wells Fargo are all due to report earnings before Friday’s opening bell.

Friday morning starts off with Producer Price Index, Core PPI, PPI Year-over-Year & Core PPI Year-over-Year at 8:30 am, Fed President Goolsbee speaks at 9:45 am, Consumer Sentiment (prelim) comes in at 10 am, Fed President Logan speaks at 10:45 am & Fed Governor Bowman speaks at 1:10 pm to wind down the week.

See you back here next week!

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM OR DIA AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF gained +0.57% in another week with subpar volumes, while the VIX closed at 16.96, indicating an implied one day move of +/-1.07% & an implied one month move of +/-4.9%.

Their RSI is currently at 64.61 & has begun to curl over bearishly, heading back towards the neutral level while their MACD is also curling over bearishly & looks set to cross the signal line bearishly in the coming days.

Volumes were -34.28% below the previous year’s average last week (43,960,000 vs. 66,888,340) as market participants are still largely sitting on the sidelines uneasily as prices continue to set & flirt with new all-time highs.

As we’ve highlighted on here over the past month or so, volumes when compared to the average volume of the year before April 2024 are even lower, as for the past ~5 months volumes have been extremely muted.

In our report on 3/31/2024 the average prior year’s volume for SPY was 77,829,780, making today’s average previous year’s volume -14% lower than where it was in March, which is a fairly decent size drop off & not a signal of confidence in the S&P 500.

SPY’s week started off on an uncertain note, as Monday’s session resulted in a dragonfly doji, indicating that there was some downside appetite but the day was able to open & close near the high end of its price range.

Monday’s session was the third highest volume session of the week, as investors were not overly eager to jump back into SPY right out of the gate.

Tuesday this trend continued, as volumes were the second highest of the week on another session that resulted in a dragonfly doji.

The lower shadow on Tuesday’s candle also indicated that there was a lot of downside appetite, but that the bulls were able to drive the price back up to close just above the day’s opening price.

Wednesday is when things began to flash weakness for SPY, as the session opened just below Tuesday’s close & proceeded lower throughout the day.

However, much like the prior two days there was a lack of volume as Wednesday was SPY’s least active session of the week.

Thursday things gave a glimmer of optimism after the PBOC announced new easing measures, but it came with a hint of doubt.

The session gapped higher but was unable to continue higher, tested into Wednesday’s candle’s real body before closing slightly higher than Wednesday, but at a lower price than their open.

Thursday also had the strongest volumes of the week for SPY, indicating that there was a bit of profit taking throughout the day & that the reality was slowly becoming more risk-off after five consecutive sessions of dojis that came after a gap up the prior Thursday.

Friday the risk-off sentiment was echoed, as SPY closed down -0.15%, although it should be noted that the two lowest volume sessions of the week came on the declining days.

As noted before, there has been little but indecision & mixed signals in the market since last Thursday’s session, when SPY gapped up on the open & proceeded to close below the opening price.

Market participants are beginning to look more & more skittish each passing week & there has not been such long consecutive string of doji candles in the past year, which gives off the feeling that we’re approaching at least a temporary falling of the Jenga tower.

Like last week, the 10 day moving average & its relationship to SPY’s price will be a key area of importance to track this coming week.

Any breakdown of that support level will begin to put pressure on SPY’s price, particularly at times where the volumes have been so low such as this past week.

Given how close they are to their all-time high there is little to measure against for SPY’s upside potential this week, but given the low level of major earnings reports & high number of Fed speakers continuing into the week combined with their RSI & MACD readings it looks like SPY is set to pump the brakes this week.

It should be noted that SPY’s 50 DMA’s support level is ~4% below their current price & edging higher, and currently sits just below a price zone that is dominated by Sellers at a rate of 1.25:1, which will be another area to keep an eye on in the event of declines.

Should the 50 DMA be broken through to the downside the $537.79-535.81 support levels will be in play, also occurring just after a Seller dominated price zone (1.4:1).

SPY has support at the $567.44 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $563.43 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 10:1), $562.48 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 10:1) & $553.17/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.92:1) price levels, with resistance at the $574.71/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF that tracks the NASDAQ 100 advanced +0.89% last week, having the strongest week of the major four index ETFs.

Their RSI looks similar to SPY’s in that it has begun to curl over & head downward following Friday’s declines & it currently sits at 61.55, while their MACD looks primed to cross the signal line bearishly in the coming week.

Volumes were also extremely weak for QQQ, coming in at -37.61% below the prior year’s average (26,442,000 vs. 42,380,464), as the tumbleweeds blew across the tech heavy index.

Much like SPY, QQQ’s average past year volume is -13.95% lower than it was back on March 31, 2024 (49,253,412).

QQQ’s week began in a similar fashion to SPY’s as Monday’s session resulted in a doji candle on the second weakest volume of the week, indicating that there was hesitancy on the part of market participants heading into a new week.

However, this all seemed to fade away for the next two days, but there was still downside appetite as shown by Tuesday’s candle’s lower shadow.

Tuesday opened higher day-over-day, but tested much lower down to the $480.17/share mark before rallying higher & closing the day on a slight advance.

It should be noted that Tuesday’s candle flashed an ominous signal though as the session closed in a hanging man candle, which was then confirmed by Wednesday’s session’s inability to test much higher.

Wednesday resulted in a shooting star candle, indicating that there was still trouble on the horizon for QQQ.

Thursday saw the highest volumes of the week, but like SPY the PBOC pump resulted in profit taking, lending to the week’s highest volume being for a session that opened higher, tested down to near Wednesday’s close before closing below the day’s opening price.

This set the stage for Friday’s risk-off heading into the weekend session where QQQ declined -0.56%.

It should be noted that this occurred on the lowest volumes of the week, but considering Thursday’s high volume & wide range of price action & ultimate lower close than opening price that may be a function of folks hopping out of the pool a day prior.

Thursday was not able to produce a new all-time nor a 52-week high which indicates that there is unlikely to be much along the lines of near-term upside appetite for QQQ.

QQQ looks ready to take a breather at minimum due to the inability to continue trudging higher last week & all eyes will be on the relationship between their price & the 10 day moving average’s support heading into the new week.

In the event the price breaks through it to the downside then we will likely see if continue further until it tests the 50 DMA’s support, as there is only one other support touchpoint between them ($474.88).

This is where things could become interesting as the $472-479.99/share price levels are Seller dominated over the past ~2 years (1.05:1 & 1.08:1) & the 50 DMA currently sits at $467.49/share & is rising.

The good news for bulls should this happen is that since July’s decline we have been making higher lows & there is a support zone between the 200 Day Moving Average at $446.61 to $448/share.

However, bears will be quick to point out that QQQ’s most recent peak was only +1.82% higher than the previous peak & the 200 DMA’s support was broken through temporarily in August, indicating that there is appetite to see that happen again.

As has been noted in previous weeks, QQQ has more support levels due to the steadier ascent they took since the Q4 2023 rally, particularly the prices from Q1 into Q2 2024.

QQQ has support at the $484.86 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.6:0*), $481.11 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.4:1), $474.88 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.08:1) & $467.49/share (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.9:0*) price levels, with resistance at the $493.70 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.7:0*) & $502.81/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.6:0*) price levels.

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF declined -0.56%, as the small cap index had the worst week out of the major four index ETFs.

Their RSI is currently at 58.29, while their MACD has flattened & looks ready to cross the signal line bearishly in the coming days.

Volumes were -35.95% below the previous year’s average (22,654,000 vs. 35,367,549), as market participants were not seeking risk & taking profits from the recent run up in small cap names.

Unlike SPY & QQQ, IWM’s average past year’s volume is now +3.18% above where it was back on 3/31/2024 (34,276,900).

This looks like complacency for investors in IWM & its components, given it was a week of moderate declines for IWM but less people were selling than normal.

IWM’s week kicked off Monday to more profit taking following Friday’s declining session & last Thursday’s hanging man candle that closed lower than it opened despite gapping up to open (bearish).

Tuesday threw mixed signals out, as the session closed as a hammer candle which can indicate that there is a reversal coming in the wake of declines like the ones that preceded it & it formed a bullish harami with the prior session’s candle.

However, caution should be taken as the session closed lower than it opened & the lower shadow shows that there was quite a bit of downside appetite that the bulls were able to at least temporarily fight back from.

Wednesday confirmed that there is bearishness in the air for IWM, as the session opened lower & continued to test lower, breaking down through the support of the 10 day moving average & closing beneath it.

Thursday opened on a gap up, tested slightly higher than it opened, but in the end the bears were able to force IWM’s price down to close below their opening price & in-line with the 10 DMA, echoing the bearish sentiment of the prior five sessions despite closing slightly up.

Friday was able to open slightly higher than Thursday & tested higher, breaking abvoe the $222.50-mark briefly before moving lower & testing down to the 10 DMA’s support.

Support held up & forced the close to be a spinning top candle, but it should be noted that the close was lower than the open, which carries bearish sentiment.

Friday had the second highest volume of the week as market participants were eager to remove risk before the weekend commenced.

This week will have the 10 DMA in focus, as it has so far proven to be sturdy but has shown signals of weakness & with repeated testing it seems that market participants are unsure if they want prices to remain above it or not for IWM.

In the event that it breaks down, the next support level is -2.33% lower at the 50 day moving average, which is currently ~2% above the next highest support level & moving higher.

With the hanging man candle from the previous Thursday’s session marking the recent high that is where to keep an eye on in the event prices break upwards, but based on last week’s price action it looks like IWM is ready to continue lower in the coming week.

IWM has support at the $219.55 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 3.3:1), $214.43 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.69:1), $210.57 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2:1) & $208.58/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2:1) price levels, with resistance at the $221.69 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.86:1), $224.17 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.6:0*) & $227.85/share (52-Week High, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.6:0*) price levels.

DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF also finished the week up +0.57% like SPY & also had a week of very light volume too.

Their RSI is trending into overbought territory & currently sits at 67.2, while their MACD is still bullish but beginning to flatten out & their histogram has been waning the past three sessions.

This sign of weakness will likely lead to a bearish crossover of their signal line in the coming week.

As noted above, volumes were lackluster for DIA, coming in -23.91% below the previous year’s average volume (2,706,000 vs. 3,556,245), as it is looking like investors are running out of steam at their current price levels.

Like IWM, DIA’s current previous year’s average volume is actually higher than it was on 3/31/2024, coming in +4.44% above it’s late-March counterpart (3,405,069).

DIA’s week kicked off on uncertain footing, as Monday’s session ended in a doji on very light advancing volume.

Tuesday was another advancing session, but it resulted in a hanging man candle (bearish), which set the stage for the risk-off action that DIA saw on Wednesday’s bearish engulfing candle that went down to come near testing the support of their 10 day moving average.

Thursday saw volumes kick up a bit more, but opened just below the high end of Wednesday’s real body, tested lower & ultimately closed lower than it opened as a hanging man candle.

While Thursday also could be categorized as a bullish harami formation with Wednesday, the fact that it closed below its open diminishes the fact that it was an advancing session & it should be viewed as bearish sentiment.

This was confirmed on Friday, when DIA gapped up, tested above the $425/share price level, before closing as a shooting star candle for the day on the week’s highest volume.

The volume should be regarded as profit taking given the wide range of prices the day covered & that their open/close were both concentrated at the bottom of the session’s candle.

The first area to watch for this week with DIA will be the window that was formed by Friday’s session, as it is likely to fill earlier on in the week as Friday’s all-time high does not look to be on stable footing.

This will bring DIA to the support level of their 10 day moving average, which if broken through will open the door to support levels ~1% away from one another until DIA reaches the 50 DMA, which currently sits at $406.71.

Should this occur DIA’s next target will be a support zone between $399-398/share, but it will have the resistance of both the 10 & 50 DMAs applying downward pressure on price, while their 200 DMA’s support level is then only ~2.5% below ($389.02).

Of course, keep an eye on their volumes as well, as the more active market participants are in the coming price moves the stronger they will be.

In terms of what to watch for on the upside it is hard to say, given that Friday’s session set an all-time high, making it more important to have an understanding of what can happen to the downside & a plan of action for if this is to occur.

DIA has support at the $419.48 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.2:0*), $415.32 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.8:0*), $412.11 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.8:0*) & $406.71/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.2:1) price levels, with resistance at the $426.20/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

The Week Ahead

Monday kicks the week off with Fed Governor Bowman speaking at 8:50 am, followed by the Chicago Business Barometer (PMI) data at 9:45 pm & Fed Chair Powell speaking at 1:55 pm.

Carnival reports earnings before Monday’s opening bell.

S&P Final U.S. Manufacturing PMI data comes out at 9:45 am Tuesday, followed by ISM Manufacturing, Construction Spending & Job Openings data at 10 am, Fed Governor Cook speaking at 11:10 am & Fed Presidents Barkin, Bostic & Collins having a panel discussion about technology at 6:15 pm & Auto Sales data is also expected on Tuesday.

Tuesday morning’s earnings reports include Lamb Weston, Acuity Brands, McCormick, Paychex & United Natural Foods, with Nike, Cal-Maine Foods & Resources Connection reporting after the session’s close.

Wednesday features the ADP Employment data reports at 8:15 am, followed by Fed President Hammack speaking at 9 am, Fed Governor Bowman speaking at 11 am & Fed President Barkin speaking at 12:15 pm.

Conagra & RPM Inc. report earnings before Wednesday’s opening bell, with Levi Strauss due to report after the session’s close.

Initial Jobless Claims data is scheduled to come out Thursday morning at 8:30 am, followed by S&P Final U.S. Services PMI data at 9:45 am, ISM Services & Factory Orders data at 10 am & Fed Presidents Kashkari & Bostic having a discussion at 10:40 am.

Thursday morning begins with AngioDynamics & Constellation Brands reporting earnings, with Tilray Brands coming in after the closing bell.

Friday morning starts with U.S. Nonfarm Payroll, U.S. Unemployment Rate, U.S. Hourly Wages & Hourly Wages Year-over-Year data at 8:30 am, before Fed President Williams speaking at 9 am & Apogee Enterprises reports earnings before the session opens.

See you back here next week!

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM OR DIA AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF had the weakest week of the major four indexes, gaining only +1.11%, while the VIX finished the week at 16.15, indicating a one day implied move of +/-1.02% & an implied one month move of +/-4.67% for the S&P 500.

Their RSI is currently at 63.7 & has curled over bearishly after Friday’s session which will be something to keep an eye on moving into this week.

SPY’s MACD is still bullish following Thursday’s gap up session, however it should be noted that Thursday’s gains were only due to the gap up & their closing price was lower than their opening price.

Volumes were still weak, finishing the week -12.16% below the past year’s average (59,568,000 vs. 67,816,126), which is problematic given that two of the week’s three highest volume sessions were declining sessions.

The week began on a note of uncertainty, as Monday’s session was a tight range advance on the week’s lowest volume that barely closed above the previous Friday’s close.

Tuesday continued this theme, as despite a gap up on the open, the day closed lower, although still higher than Monday’s close & the candle’s lower shadow shows that there was a bit of appetite to the downside compared to the upside.

Wednesday is when weakness began to show itself as the session tested higher than Tuesday’s high before ultimately giving everything back & resulting in a decline on higher volume than the previous two days as market participants were eager to take some chips off of the table.

Thursday gapped higher on the second highest volume of the week, but resulted in a long-legged doji indicating uncertainty among market participants.

It should be noted that the session closed lower than it opened on Thursday, which indicates that the day’s open was deemed to be too high by investors.

Friday solidified this sentiment, as the day opened on a gap lower on the highest volume of the week as folks were eager to remove risk before heading into the weekend.

Friday tested more to the downside than upside based on the length of the day’s candle’s lower & upper shadows but the session only closed down -0.17%.

Heading into this week there are still a handful of earnings calls including Costco, as well as a plethora of economic data & Fed speakers which should make for an interesting week.

All eyes will be on the $562.48-563.43 support zone this week, as a ~1% downside move will test these support levels that have developed over the past two months when prices reached new peaks & began declining.

As noted in last week’s market review note, this will occur in the event of a throwback following a false breakout.

Prices have broken out but not progressed much higher & have declined since setting the new all-time high.

This looks possible given the lack of strength behind the mid-to-end of week performance of SPY last week.

Watch the MACD histogram for clues into this, as if the bars begin to get lower day-over-day it will signal that there is not much steam left & that there is an impending decline.

In the event that this happens, it will be interesting to see where support is found, as while the $560-565 price zone is 10:1 Buyers:Sellers historically, it is still relatively untested, given that it is home to the recent resistance level that was not broken through until Thursday of last week.

There is -1.77% difference between the current price of SPY & their 10 day moving average, with an additional -1.66% difference between the 10 & 50 DMAs for support, which if the support zone mentioned above breaks down will likely see a test given that the $555-559.99 price window is seller dominated 1.25:1.

Based on the weakness/uncertainty of the past two sessions it is uncertain as to how much higher SPY can climb in the event of positive news, as market participants look to be on edge at these current price levels & after the past few months.

SPY has support at the $563.43 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 10:1), $562.48 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 10:1), $558.19 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.25:1) & $553.17/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.92:1) price levels, with resistance at the $571.13/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF that tracks the NASDAQ 100 added +1.49% last week in a week that looked similar to SPY’s.

Their RSI is currently at 59.71 & is also curling over bearishly after Friday’s session, while their MACD is still bullish.

Volumes were very weak for QQQ, coming in -16.08% below the previous year’s average (35,988,000 vs. 42,884,111), which as has been noted in previous weeks’ posts is particularly low given that volumes as a whole have been lower than average compared to years prior since April 2024.

The support of the 50 day moving average held up for QQQ on Monday, as the session tested down towards it but was able to close as a dragonfly doji, indicating uncertainty among market participants, but the open & close were concentrated near the top of the day’s range on the lowest volume of the week.

Tuesday this theme continued, as the day opened on a gap up but ultimately closed lower than it opened on the second lowest volume of the week.

Tuesday’s lower shadow indicated that there was some downside appetite, but the bulls were able to push through & it did not go as low as Monday’s lower shadow.

Wednesday opened about midway through Tuesday’s candle’s real body & tested higher before ultimately nosediving to close near the bottom of Tuesday’s lower shadow, but still well above the support of the 50 DMA.

Much like SPY, QQQ enjoyed a gap up open on Thursday, except QQQ’s was on the week’s highest volume.

While the day’s high was able to break above the resistance level of $485.54, there is a lot of uncertainty & doubt in the air as the session ended as a spinning top candle that closed lower than it opened, indicating that there was some bearish sentiment brewing.

Friday this theme continued, as the day opened lower & wound up resulting in a doji candle, indicating uncertainty & risk-off sentiment heading into the weekend.

Something to keep an eye on this week is the 10 & 50 day moving averages which recently just had a bullish crossover, as last month when this happened it only lasted briefly & preceded a decline.

While that is not necessarily going to happen again, the uneasiness of market participants that QQQ’s candles are showing makes it a possibility that shouldn’t be ignored, particularly when you look at their RSI now vs. back in August at the time.

In the event that QQQ declines to begin filling in the window created by Thursday’s gap up session the next two price levels have been dominated by Sellers (1.05:1 & 1.08:1) which makes it likely that the next two support levels will not be able to hold up QQQ’s price, leading to a test of the support of the 50 day moving average.

Should that support level not hold up there isn’t another for another -1.83% at the $459.85, which also happens to be in a seller dominated price zone (1.63:1).

The upside price levels of $485.54 & $486.23 should be watched for in the event of an advance as they will be the nearest resistance levels for QQQ.

QQQ has support at the $475.55 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.08:1), $471.43 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.58:1), $468.44 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.58:1) & $459.85/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.63:1) price levels, with resistance at the $485.54 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.6:0*), $486.23 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.6:0*) & $503.52/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.6:0*) price levels.

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF had the strongest week of the major four index ETFs, advancing +2.19% for the week.

Their RSI is at 63.7 & has flattened out after Friday’s session, while their MACD is still bullish.

However, much like SPY, IWM’s Thursday session’s gap up contributed greatly to their MACD’s continued bullishness, but the session closed lower than it opened on that day, indicating bearishness & uncertainty/a lack of confidence given it resulted in a doji candle.

Volumes were +3.17% above the previous year’s average (36,580,000 vs. 35,454,783), bucking the continued below average volume trend of SPY, QQQ & DIA.

IWM’s week looks a lot different than that of SPY & QQQ, but still is riddled with uncertainty.

Monday kicked the week off with a gap up session that resulted in a doji candle on the week’s lowest volume, indicating that there was a great deal of uncertainty in the market.

Tuesday this theme continued, as IWM gapped up again, only to close as a doji, but this time closer to the lower end of the day’s range (but not as a gravestone doji).

Wednesday saw the highest volumes of the week, as well as the highest price level of the week, but the session closed as a doji near in line with Tuesday’s candle’s real body.

While IWM was able to test much higher based on the day’s upper shadow, the bulls were unable to hang on & or all bailed to take profits during the day forcing the close to be on the low end of the day’s candle.

Thursday managed to open higher near the high end of Wednesday’s upper shadow, but ultimately saw a lot of selling action that forced the day’s low end of the range to test almost halfway down the upper shadow of Wednesday’s candle before settling as a hanging man candle that closed lower than it opened.

Friday confirmed this bearish sentiment as the session opened on a gap down & continued lower throughout the day on volume that was average for the week, echoing the risk-off sentiment of SPY & QQQ & closing below the support level of $222.45.

Friday’s close sets IWM up to enter a Seller dominated price zone if they decline down to the $219.99 price level, where until $216 the Sellers have been the dominant force at a rate of 3.3:1.

This is important to note as the next support level is currently the 10 day moving average, which happens to be below $216 & sits just atop the 50 DMA’s support after recently crossing it bullishly.

Like noted above, watching the angle that those moving averages move at in the coming week(s) will lend clues to where price direction is headed, but the current sentiment remains cautious.

As has been noted in previous months’ posts, the consolidation ranges that IWM has spent much of December 2023 until July of 2024 in contain multiple support zones, but given that their 200 day moving average has advanced as high as it has to the midway point of this range it will be interesting to see what happens in the event of a decline.

Should we see a significant decline that breaks down through the 200 DMA it will undermine the strength of sentiment at the other local support levels, which could see the $190.81/share support level

IWM has support at the $215.62 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.69:1), $215.04 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.69:1), $211.29 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2:1) & $209.29/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers 2:1) price levels, with resistance at the $222.45 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.86:1), $224.94 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.6:0*) & $228.63/share (52-Week High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF climbed +1.36% for the week, mostly on account of Thursday’s gap up session.

Their RSI is approaching overbought levels & has flattened out at 67.87, while their MACD continues on bullishly.

DIA’s MACD continuing higher can be attributed to Thursday’s gap up session, but like SPY & IWM they closed Thursday’s session lower than where it opened on a spinning top candle, indicating uncertainty with a touch of bearishness.

Volumes were -7.22% below the previous year’s average (3,316,000 vs. 3,574,071), which is not s sign of strength given that three of their five sessions last week resulted in advances.

Monday kicked DIA’s week off on an uncertain note, as the day resulted in a spinning top & set up the next two day’s consolidation range.

Tuesday the uncertainty continued, as a low volume declining session also resulted in a spinning top as investors awaited the FOMC announcement on Wednesday afternoon.

Wednesday set up the end of the week’s new all-time high as prices rallied during the day, but ultimately closed lower for the day as investors were eager to take profits off of the table.

Thursday opened to a gap up, but the uncertainty & uneasiness theme remained in play as the session closed lower than it opened & closed as a hanging man candle, which is a sign of bearishness.

Thursday saw the highest volumes of the week as well, which was likely due to profit taking by folks who benefitted from the gap up to the all-time high.

Friday the uncertainty continued, when an average volume session resulted in an advance of +0.1% & closed in a spinning top candle heading into the weekend.

DIA has the most Buyer dominated support levels of the four major index ETFs primarily due to the slow ascent it has taken in the wake of the rapid climb it took in Q4 2023.

This has also benefitted it by creating more support levels along the way than the other index ETFs enjoy, which makes sense as investors have run to blue chip names in recent history.

With that said, there has not been much downside testing against the more recent price levels, as can be seen in the table below where the denominator (Sellers) is 0 for the first few price levels.

With this in mind, it would be wise to be cautious in the event of a decline for DIA, as there has been limited downside testing above $403.99/share.

While this does not mean that shares will necessarily tank between the current price & $400/share, it is entirely possible that market participants who got in above this level will leave in droves to protect their profits (~5% from $400).

It would also be wise to be cautious if in the coming days a new all-time high is hit but volumes are weak, as that would set up a prime time for a price reversal, especially with DIA’s RSI nearing the overbought level.

DIA has support at the $415.32 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.8:0*), $413.53 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.8:0*), $412.11 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.8:0*) & $412.11/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.8:0*) price levels, with resistance at the $421.53/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

The Week Ahead

Monday the week kicks off with Atlanta Fed President Bostic speaking at 8 am, S&P Flash U.S. Services PMI & S&P Flash U.S. Manufacturing PMI data at 9:45 am, Chicago Fed President Gooslbee speaking at 10:15 am& Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari speaking at 1pm.

AAR Corp reports earnings after Monday’s closing bell.

Fed Reserve Governor Bowman speaks at 9 am Tuesday, with the S&P Case-Schiller Home Price Index data coming out at 9 as well, followed by Consumer Confidence data at 10 am.

Tuesday morning’s earnings reports include AutoZone & Thor Industries, with KB Home, Progress Software, Stitch Fix & Worthington Enterprises scheduled to report after the session’s close.

Wednesday brings us New Home Sales data at 10 am & at 4pm Fed Governor Kugler speaks.

Cintas reports earnings Wednesday morning before the opening bell, followed by Micron Technology, Concentrix, H.B. Fuller, Jefferies & Worthington Steel after the session’s close.

Initial Jobless Claims, Durable-Goods Orders, Durable-Goods minus Transportation & GDP (second revision) data come out Thursday morning at 8:30 am, followed by Fed Governor Kugler & Boston Fed President Collins speaking together at 9:10 am, Fed Governor Bowman speaking at 9:15 am, Fed Chair Powell delivering opening remarks at 9:20 am & Fed President Williams speaking at 9:25 am.

In a busy morning Pending Home Sales data is released Thursday at 10 am, Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Barr speaks at 10:30 am, as does Fed Governor Cook & at 1pm Fed President Kashkari & Chair for Supervision Barr speak together at 1 pm.

Accenture, CarMax, Jabil & TD Synnex are all schedule to report earnings on Thursday morning before the session opens, with Costco Wholesale, BlackBerry & Vail Resorts due to report earnings after the closing bell.

Friday brings another busy day on the data front, with Personal Income, Personal Spending, PCE Index, PCE Year-over-year, Core PCE Index, Core PCE Year-over-Year, Advanced U.S. Trade Balance in Goods, Advanced Wholesale Inventories & Advanced Retail Inventories data due out at 8:30 am, followed by Consumer Sentiment (final) at 10 am & Fed Governor Bowman speaking at 1:15 pm.

There are no major earnings reports due out on Friday.

See you back here next week!

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM OR DIA AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***

What a week it’s been; a 50 bps cut from the FOMC, fresh all-time highs for the S&P 500 & Dow Jones Industrial Average & the usual gloomy month of September has been ok for stocks thus far, although the VIX sits at 16.8, indicating an implied one day move of +/-1.06% & an implied one month move of +/-4.86%.

Many of the same elements of political uncertainty in the U.S. & abroad remain or have escalated since our last index ETF price level:volume sentiment check in from July & as a result volatility looks to remain elevated in the coming months.

This makes it a prime time to check in on historic Buyer:Seller (or Seller:Buyer) sentiment at the price levels that each index ETF has traded at over the past few years in order to assess the strength of each’s support & resistance levels.

Due to the aforementioned new high price levels that each index ETF has been experiencing & the subdued volumes that we have seen since April many of the higher range price levels are still “NULL”, meaning that they are not 0, but there is not enough data currently to work with in terms of assigning buyer:seller (Seller:Buyer) strength ratios.

Additionally, you will notice as you go through the numbers that the higher prices tend to skew more towards the buyers, as there have been limited downside tests against these price levels, and the low volumes have not helped this.

Similarly, you will notice that there tend to be more sellers towards the lower ends of the price ranges.

Upon retests of a price level these numbers will become evened out more, but in the meantime the strength (weakness) of each level’s ratio can be used like a barometer to assess how strongly buyers & sellers have historically felt at each & how that may impact their decisions in the future.

Each section below contains a view of each index ETF’s chart (for a technical breakdown of each ETF’s chart please see this past weekend’s market review note), as well as a list of their current one year support & resistance levels with the volume sentiment noted beneath it on the table.

There is an additional table beneath this table with each price level’s sentiment, as well as a typed text version below that is able to be copied & pasted.

Note that “NULL, 0:0*” values denote areas that each name has traded at but with limited volume data to work with from a comparison standpoint in terms of creating a ratio of buyers:sellers (or vice versa).

Also, prices that do have a ratio of Buyers:Sellers (Sellers:Buyers) where the denominator is 0 are denoted with an asterisk “*” as well.

In the written lists of the price levels & volume sentiments the price levels that contain support & resistance levels are marked in BOLD.

Recall that at price extremes such as the highs that we have recently hit there will tend to be skewed data due to the small sample size & factor that into how you interpret each price level’s reported sentiment.

This is intended to serve as an additional tool to use during your due diligence process & is not meant to replace doing your own research & is not financial advice.

Price Level:Volume Sentiment Analysis For SPY (S&P 500) ETF

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF hit an fresh all-time high today despite closing -0.3% yesterday in the wake of the FOMC interest rate announcement.

While recent price movements have been more volatile over the past couple of months it has helped them establish more nearby support levels to their current price than what they had during July’s check-in.

Still though, with the low volumes that we are seeing there is not much reason to celebrate just yet & as a result it is worth having an understanding of the strength of their support levels.

This is especially true as in the event of a 10% correction for SPY their price enters a Seller dominated zone which may possibly lead to further downside movements as support levels are weak in these price zones.

Below is a list of the volume sentiments at each price level SPY has traded at over the past 2-3 years.

$570 – NULL – 0:0*, +1.54% From Current Price

$565 – NULL – 0:0*, +0.65% From Current Price

$560 – Buyers – 10:1, -0.24% From Current Price – Current Price Level*

$555 – Sellers – 1.25:1, -1.13% From Current Price

$550 – Buyers – 1.92:1, -2.02% From Current Price – 10 & 50 Day Moving Averages**

$545 – Buyers – 1.67:1, -2.91% From Current Price

$540 – Sellers – 1.4:1, -3.81% From Current Price

$535 – Buyers – 2.33:1, -4.7% From Current Price

$530 – Buyers – 1.67:1, -5.59% From Current Price

$525 – Buyers – 5.6:1, -6.48% From Current Price

$520 – Buyers – 1.06:1, -7.37% From Current Price

$515 – Buyers – 1.3:1, -8.26% From Current Price – 200 Day Moving Average*

$510 – Even – 1:1, -9.15% From Current Price

$505 – Sellers – 1.19:1, -10.04% From Current Price

$500 – Sellers – 2.33:1, -11.64% From Current Price

$496 – Sellers – 1.69:1, -12.36% From Current Price

$492 – Buyers – 1.6:1, -12.36% From Current Price

$488 – Buyers – 1.27:1, -13.07% From Current Price

$484 – Buyers – 1.22:1, -13.78% From Current Price

$480 – Buyers – 1.4:0*, -14.49% From Current Price

$476 – Buyers – 1.14:1, -15.21% From Current Price

$472 – Buyers – 2.25:1, -15.92% From Current Price

$468 – Buyers – 1.1:1, -16.63% From Current Price

$464 – Sellers – 1.35:1, -17.34% From Current Price

$460 – NULL – 0:0*, -18.06% From Current Price

$456 – Buyers – 1:0*, -18.77% From Current Price

$452 – Buyers – 2.5:0*, -19.48% From Current Price

$448 – Even – 1:1, -20.19% From Current Price

$444 – Buyers – 3.47:1, -20.91% From Current Price

$440 – Buyers – 1.11:1, -21.62% From Current Price

$436 – Buyers – 1.25:1, -22.33% From Current Price

$432 – Buyers – 1.15:1. -23.04% From Current Price

$428 – Buyers – 1.1:1, -23.76% From Current Price

$424 – Buyers – 1.02:1, -24.47% From Current Price

$420 – Sellers – 1.24:1, -25.18% From Current Price

$416 – Sellers – 2.68:1, -25.89% From Current Price

$412 – Buyers – 1.86:1, -26.61% From Current Price

$408 – Sellers – 1.22:1, -27.32% From Current Price

$404 – Buyers – 1.8:1, -28.03% From Current Price

$400 – Sellers – 1.56:1, -28.74% From Current Price

$396 – Sellers – 1.98:1, -29.46% From Current Price

$392 – Buyers – 2.14:1, -30.17% From Current Price

$388 – Buyers – 2.27:1, -30.88% From Current Price

$384 – Sellers – 1.04:1, -31.59% From Current Price

$380 – Sellers – 1.95:1, -32.31% From Current Price

$376 – Sellers – 2.54:1, -33.02% From Current Price

$372 – Sellers – 1.65:1, -33.73% From Current Price

$368 – Sellers – 1.23:1, -34.44% From Current Price

$364 – Sellers – 1.69:1, -35.16% From Current Price

$360 – Sellers – 1.79:1, -35.87% From Current Price

$356 – Buyers – 1.11:1, -36.58% From Current Price

$352 – Sellers – 4.25:1, -37.3% From Current Price

$348 – Sellers – 2.9:0*, -38.01% From Current Price

$344 – Sellers – 0.6:0*, -38.72% From Current Price

$340 – NULL – 0:0*, -39.43% From Current Price

Price Level:Volume Sentiment Analysis For QQQ (NASDAQ 100) ETF

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF that tracks the NASDAQ 100 has begun to show more weakness than SPY after months of trading in similar manners.

While lower interest rates are more beneficial to this tech-heavy index, the size of yesterday’s cut indicates that there may be more weakness in the QQQ index components that in the medium-term may become more apparent compared to their SPY counterparts.

QQQ’s current price level is a seller dominated zone, as is the one directly below it & it is faced with a similar set up in the event of a 10% decline as SPY was noted to have.

Another item to note on QQQ’s chart is the proximity of price to the three moving averages shown, as a sudden movement downward would cause the price to become wedged in between all three, with the 10 & 50 day moving averages providing resistance from above & moving downwards, while the support of the 200 DMA would be pushing upwards, which may cause increased volatility.

There will be more on that in this weekend’s market review note; below is QQQ’s volume sentiment at each price level it has traded at for the past 2-3 years, as well as their support & resistance levels with the sentiments noted.

$505 – NULL – 0:0*, +7.14% From Current Price

$500 – Buyers – 0.6:0*, +6.08% From Current Price

$496 – Buyers – 2.4:0*, +5.23% From Current Price

$492 – Buyers – 0.7:0*, +4.39% From Current Price

$488 – Sellers – 3:1, +3.54% From Current Price

$484 – Buyers – 1.6:0*, +2.69% From Current Price

$480 – Buyers – 1.4:1, +1.84% From Current Price

$476 – Sellers – 1.05:1, +0.99% From Current Price

$472 – Sellers – 1.08:1, +0.14% From Current Price

$468 – Buyers – 1.58:1, -0.71% From Current Price – 50 Day Moving Average & Current Price Level**

$464 – Buyers – 0.9:0*, -1.56% From Current Price – 10 day Moving Average*

$460 – Buyers – 1.19:1, -2.4% From Current Price

$456 – Sellers – 1.63:1, -3.25% From Current Price

$452 – Buyers – 1.78:1, -4.1% From Current Price

$448 – Sellers – 2.4:1, -4.95% From Current Price

$444 – Buyers – 14.25:1, -5.8% From Current Price

$440 – Buyers – 1.84:1, -6.65% From Current Price – 200 Day Moving Average*

$436 – Buyers – 1.36:1, -7.5% From Current Price

$432 – Sellers – 2.93:1, -8.34% From Current Price

$428 – Buyers – 1.71:1, -9.19% From Current Price

$424 – Sellers – 1.04:1, -10.04% From Current Price

$420 – Sellers – 1.83:1, -10.89% From Current Price

$416 – Buyers – 2.1:0*, -11.74% From Current Price

$412 – Sellers – 2.5:0*, -12.59% From Current Price

$408 – Buyers – 1.85:1, -13.44% From Current Price

$404 – Buyers – 4.1:1, -14.29% From Current Price

$400 – Sellers – 1.03:1, -15.13% From Current Price

$396 – Buyers – 1.14:1, -15.98% From Current Price

$392 – Buyers – 2.67:1, -16.83% From Current Price

$388 – Buyers – 3.1:0*, -17.68% From Current Price

$384 – Sellers – 1.83:1, -18.53% From Current Price

$380 – Buyers – 2.75:1, -19.38% From Current Price

$376 – Buyers – 3.67:1, -20.23% From Current Price

$372 – Sellers – 1.08:1, -21.07% From Current Price

$368 – Sellers – 1.44:1, -21.92% From Current Price

$364 – Buyers – 1.52:1, -22.77% From Current Price

$360 – Buyers – 1.17:1, -23.62% From Current Price

$356 – Buyers – 1.21:1, -24.47% From Current Price

$352 – Sellers – 1.65:1, -25.32% From Current Price

$348 – Buyers – 2.84:1, -26.17% From Current Price

$344 – Buyers – 1.42:1, -27.02% From Current Price

$340 – Sellers – 1.17:1, -27.86% From Current Price

$336 – Buyers – 1.2:0*, -28.71% From Current Price

$332 – Buyers – 2:1, -29.56% From Current Price

$328 – Sellers – 1.19:1, -30.41% From Current Price

$324 – Buyers – 4.83:1, -31.26% From Current Price

$320 – Buyers – 2.59:1, -32.11% From Current Price

$316 – Buyers – 1.01:1, -32.96% From Current Price

$312 – Sellers – 2.7:1, -33.8% From Current Price

$308 – Buyers – 1.41:1, -34.65% From Current Price

$304 – Buyers – 2.14:1, -35.5% From Current Price

$300 – Sellers – 1.17:1, -36.35% From Current Price

$296 – Buyers – 1.25:1, -37.2% From Current Price

$292 – Buyers – 3.52:1, -38.05% From Current Price

$288 – Sellers – 1.39:1, -38.9% From Current Price

$284 – Even – 1:1, -39.74% From Current Price

$280 – Sellers – 1.3:1, -40.59% From Current Price

$276 – Buyers – 1.18:1, -41.44% From Current Price

$272 – Sellers – 1.85:1, -42.29% From Current Price

$268 – Sellers – 1.14:1, -42.14% From Current Price

$264 – Buyers – 1.04:1, -43.14% From Current Price

$260 – Sellers – 1.9:1, -44.84% From Current Price

$256 – Sellers – 6.4:0*, -45.69% From Current Price

$252 – NULL – 0:0*, -46.53% From Current Price

Price Level:Volume Sentiment Analysis For IWM (Russell 2000) ETF

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF has been unable to retest their 52-week high set just before our last check in in July, but their recent volume levels have jumped compared to the previous handful of months.

This index trades in a much more consolidated range-bound fashion & slowly advances while oscillating around a price range compared to how SPY & QQQ trade, so their list of price levels for the past 2-3 years is shorter than the previous two ETFs.

This is beneficial for them though, as it provides them with more local support levels, which are outlined in the data below.

$228 – NULL – 0:0*, +3.92% From Current Price

$224 – Buyers – 1.6:0*, +2.1% From Current Price

$220 – Buyers – 2.86:1, +0.27% From Current Price

$216 – Sellers – 3.3:1, -1.55% From Current Price – Current Price Level*

$212 – Buyers – 1.69:1, -3.37% From Current Price – 10 & 50 Day Moving Averages**

$208 – Buyers – 2:1, -5.2% From Current Price

$204 – Buyers – 1.69:1, -7.02% From Current Price

$200 – Even – 1:1, -8.84% From Current Price – 200 Day Moving Average*

$198 – Buyers – 2.08:1, -9.75% From Current Price

$196 – Buyers – 1.25:1, -10.67% From Current Price

$194 – Buyers – 1.29:1, -11.58% From Current Price

$192 – Sellers – 3.96:1, -12.49% From Current Price

$190 – Buyers – 1.08:1, -13.4% From Current Price

$188 – Sellers – 1.46:1, -14.31% From Current Price

$186 – Buyer – 4:1, -15.22% From Current Price

$184 – Buyers – 3.55:1, -16.13% From Current Price

$182 – Buyers – 1.04:1, -17.05% From Current Price

$180 – Sellers – 1.23:1, -17.96% From Current Price

$178 – Sellers – 1.26:1, -18.87% From Current Price

$176 – Buyers – 1.97:1, -19.78% From Current Price

$174 – Buyers – 1.4:1, -20.69% From Current Price

$172 – Buyers – 1.22:1, -21.6% From Current Price

$170 – Sellers – 1.93:1, -22.52% From Current Price

$168 – Sellers – 1.65:1, -23.43% From Current Price

$166 – Sellers – 3.1:1, -24.34% From Current Price

$164 – Sellers – 3:1, -25.25% From Current Price

$162 – Buyers – 1.36:1, -26.16% From Current Price

$160 – NULL – 0:0*, -27.07% From Current Price

Price Level:Volume Sentiment Analysis For DIA (Dow Jones Industrial Average) ETF

DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF trades in a manner that is more similar to IWM than to SPY or QQQ.

As a result, they too have more local support levels than SPY or QQQ, as the blue chip index tends to be an investor favorite.

This leads them to have a great deal of Buyer support, which in the event of a decline we will see their ratios become more diluted than they are currently in the data below from the past 3-4 years.

$420 – NULL – 0:0*, +0.9% From Current Price

$416 – Buyers – 0.2:0*, -0.06% From Current Price – Current Price Level*

$412 – Buyers – 0.8:0*, -1.02% From Current Price

$408 – Buyers – 3.4:1, -1.98% From Current Price – 10 Day Moving Average*

$404 – Buyers – 1.2:1, -2.95% From Current Price – 50 Day Moving Average*

$400 – Sellers – 2:1, -3.91% From Current Price

$396 – Buyers – 3.2:1, -4.87% From Current Price

$392 – Buyers – 1.9:1, -5.83% From Current Price

$388 – Buyers – 1.36:1, -6.79% From Current Price

$384 – Buyers – 1.07:1, -7.75% From Current Price – 200 Day Moving Average*

$380 – Buyers – 1.31:1, -8.71% From Current Price

$376 – Even – 1:1, -9.67% From Current Price

$372 – Buyers – 1.8:1, -10.63% From Current Price

$368 – Buyers – 2.11:1, -11.59% From Current Price

$364 – Sellers – 1.5:1, -12.55% From Current Price

$360 – Buyers – 0.3:0*, -13.52% From Current Price

$356 – Even – 1:1, -14.48% From Current Price

$352 – Buyers – 0.2:0*, -15.44% From Current Price

$348 – Buyers – 14:1, -16.4% From Current Price

$344 – Buyers – 1.03:1, -17.36% From Current Price

$340 – Buyers – 1.24:1, -18.32% From Current Price

$336 – Buyers – 1.5:1, -19.28% From Current Price

$332 – Buyers – 1.34:1, -20.24% From Current Price

$328 – Buyers – 1.04:1, -21.2% From Current Price

$324 – Buyers – 1.08:1, -22.16% From Current Price

$320 – Sellers – 2.19:1, -23.12% From Current Price

$316 – Buyers – 1.09:1, -24.09% From Current Price

$312 – Sellers – 1.2:1, -25.05% From Current Price

$308 – Sellers – 2.58:1, -26.01% From Current Price

$304 – Buyers – 1.36:1, -26.97% From Current Price

$300 – Sellers – 1.44:1, -27.93% From Current Price

$296 – Sellers – 2.33:1, -28.89% From Current Price

$292 – Sellers – 1.36:1, -29.85% From Current Price

$288 – Even – 1:1, -30.81% From Current Price

$284 – Sellers – 3.33:1, -31.77% From Current Price

$280 – Sellers – 12:1, -32.73% From Current Price

$276 – NULL – 0:0*, -33.7% From Current Price

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM OR DIA AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF gained +4.01% last week, while the VIX closed at 16.56, indicating an implied one day move of +/-1.04% & an implied one month move of +/-4.79%.

Their RSI is currently between neutral & overbought sitting at 59.02, while their MACD crossed over bullishly on Friday, but the histogram is not indicating that it was a particularly strong move.

Volumes were -28.58% below average last week compared to the previous year’s average (48,658,000 vs. 68,131,937), which is a warning signal given that all of the five sessions of the week were advancing.

Monday kicked SPY’s week off on an uncertain note, as the session opened midway between Friday’s candle’s real body & wound up closing as a spinning top on the week’s second lowest volume, forming a bullish harami with Friday’s candle.

It’s worth noting that the 50 day moving average’s resistance was not tested during this session.

Tuesday the trend continued, as the session opened on a gap higher, tested below the real body of Monday’s candle, before closing just beneath the resistance of the 50 DMA, creating a dragonfly doji on the week’s weakest volume.

The bulls won on Wednesday though, as SPY opened in line with the 50 DMA, tested lower, before ultimately rallying higher & closing above the 50 & 10 day moving averages, turning their resistance levels to support.

Wednesday had the strongest volume of the week by far, however it also covered the widest range of prices throughout the session by far as well for the week, including the need to push past the two resistance points created by the moving averages.

It is also worth noting that the low point on Wednesday’s session was near the $540/share price level, which is roughly in line with the previous Friday’s close, indicating that there was still enough bearish appetite left in the market to push prices back in that direction.

Thursday the rally continued & SPY edged higher, solidifying the 10 DMA’s support on its test on the daily low, but again, the volumes were still very light (despite being the second highest of the week).

Friday was the most interesting day of the week, where the middle of the pack volume accompanied a gap up spinning top, indicating a big lack of confidence at the current price level.

This is further confirmed by the inability of the day’s high to break above the $564.20/share resistance level, which is the next closest one to the all-time high of $565.16.

This sets the market up for an interesting new week for SPY, as another key area to note is that the bottom is even more narrow on the “Adam scallop” recovery from the early September declines, indicating a lack of confidence in the leg higher.

Broadening patterns tend to perform better than those that are more narrow, as more price levels are tested, new support & resistance levels are created & there is more validity behind each price level tested.

Additionally, Friday’s gap up may set the stage for an evening star reversal (bearish) in the event of weakness on Monday’s session.

This week volume will continue to be a major theme, along with what Monday’s session sets up the rest of the week for, as there will be a handful of earnings reports & the FOMC Interest Rate cut decision due Wednesday.

There is 0.56% upside from Friday’s closing price & SPY’s all-time high that was set in July 2024, meaning that for the most part any further bullishness would reset SPY’s all time high.

Given that the high in August of $564.20 was unable to reach the ATH & there has been limited good news since then it is hard to see SPY taking off much higher here.

However, investors should keep their eye open in the event of a move higher to be sure that it is not a false breakout that throws back into the current price range/begins a decline.

It will also be important that in the event of any downside movement that market participants watch the support zone between $549.73-$554.87, as in the event that it breaks down there is another 2% of space for their price to decline before another support level is found.

Keep an eye on SPY’s RSI this week as well, as it is approaching its highest levels of the past month, which may indicate that there is some selling on the horizon.

SPY has support at the $554.87 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2:1), $552.74 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2:1), $549.73 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2:1) & $539.44/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.7:0*) price levels, with resistance at the $564.20 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.8:0*) & $565.16/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF that tracks the NASDAQ 100 advanced +5.94% last week, as market participants flocked into the tech heavy index over the other major four index ETFs.

Their RSI is currently at 55.88, just above the neutral mark of 50 while their MACD crossed over bullishly on Friday.

Volumes were -11.96% below the previous year’s average volume (37,958,000 vs. 43,116,245), which while it is a better “participation rate” than SPY’s is still rather low, particularly when you factor in how much the annual average volume level has declined since only six months ago (comparison for all index ETFs in 8/18/2024’s Market Review Note here).

QQQ’s week was quite a bit like SPY’s, as has been the case for the past year when the AI & Semiconductor component names have driven these indexes higher than IWM or DIA.

Monday opened up with a spinning top candle midway through Friday’s candle’s real body on weak volume, with a lower shadow that indicated a lot more bearish sentiment that bulls ultimately overcame before the close & the day’s candle formed a bullish harami with the previous Friday’s.

Tuesday showed a gap up open for QQQ, a test to the downside towards Monday’s opening price, but ultimately a rally higher that closed for an advancing session.

QQQ gapped up again on Wednesday, however it also tested lower than Tuesday & lower than Monday’s opening price level during the session, despite breaking out above the 10 day moving average’s support & closing between it & the 50 DMA’s resistance.

Wednesday also had the highest volume of the week for QQQ, which is to be expected given that the day’s range covered the majority of the entire week’s advance as one session.

Thursday the gains continued, the volume was the second highest of the week & despite testing lower briefly, QQQ was able to break out about the 50 Day Moving Average’s resistance.

Friday showed the weakest volume of the week for QQQ, as well as the potential warning sign for the near-term, despite advancing +0.45%.

While the upper shadow was not long enough to categorize Friday’s session as a shooting star, there are certainly bearish implications with how the week ended, particularly as like SPY the recovery from the losses of early September were unable to break above any of the top three resistance levels & the bases of them are all contracting.

While volumes were certainly closer to levels that they’re historically at last week, they still aren’t particularly strong, especially when viewed through the lens of how diluted the average annual volume has become in the wake of the past few months.

It would also be wise to keep an eye on QQQ’s RSI this week, as it is approaching levels it has reversed at in the previous month.

While this doesn’t mean QQQ will necessarily reverse at the same levels again, there has been little good news coming out since these levels were last hit, making it more likely that they’ll reverse there again.

The relationship between each day’s price action & the support levels of the 50 & 10 DMAs will also be important to keep an eye on, as within the past week both of these moving averages have seen a lot of tests as both support & resistance levels, and while prices climbed all week, there was still a lot of interest to the downside based on the daily candles’ lower shadows.

In the event that the $475.55 resistance level is broken through, all eyes will be on the $485.54 resistance level, which if unable to be broken through will indicate that there is likely an impending decline.

QQQ has support at the $470.49 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $463.87 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Even, 1:1), $459.85 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.9:0*) & $448.63/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2.3:0*) price levels, with resistance at the $475.55 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.5:1), $485.54 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.3:0*) & $503.52/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.4:0*) price levels.

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF climbed +4.03% last week, making the small cap index the second most favored of the major four index ETFs.

Their RSI is just above the neutral 50 mark & sits at 56.33, while their MACD is still bearish, but approaching the signal line rapidly & may cross bullishly in the coming day or two.

Volumes were -21.26% below average last week compared to the previous year’s average volume (27,768,000 vs. 35,267,233), as investors were still relatively on the fence about diving back into the small cap pool.

IWM also began their week on an uncertain note, as the session opened slightly above Friday’s close & tested lower, before ultimately tested back above the $210/share mark & settling into a tight-range spinning top candle just above the day’s open (but not close enough to be a doji) that formed a bullish harami with the prior Friday’s candle on some of the weakest volume of the low volume week.

Tuesday confirmed the uncertainty in the air, as the session opened slightly higher, tested a small amount higher, before puking lower to below the $206/share range & ultimately closing in a candle whose real body looked like a slightly stretched out dragonfly doji; indicating the uncertainty was there but there was also a possible squeeze moving into the latter half of the week.

Wednesday saw an uptick in volume, as well as a test much lower after the session’s open, but managed to rally into the sloe & end the day slightly higher.

Thursday opened on a gap up that tested back against the downside & Wednesday’s closing price before rallying higher, breaking the 10 day moving average’s resistance briefly before getting denied by the 50 DMA’s resistance & tumbling back to close as an advancing session but below both the 10 & 50 DMAs.

Friday made for an interesting close to the week, as IWM gapped up above both the 10 & 50 DMA’s on the open, briefly tested a bit lower but did not approach other support level before ultimately rallying into the close for a +2.47% advance.

While the session came on the strongest volume of the week, much like QQQ it closed unable to reach the top three resistance levels from the past 52-weeks.

These levels are all ~2.6%+ from Friday’s closing level, but when paired with the contracting bottoms forming in each of the past few declines’ recoveries there is cause for concern.

Volume will continue to be a main theme for IWM this week just like the past few weeks.

Much like SPY & QQQ, IWM’s RSI will also be a place to be mindful of as it too is approaching the levels it last reversed at in August.

The support of the 50 & 10 DMA’s will also be an area of focus, as if they break down IWM will enter an area where there is a support level roughly every 1% further down, with zones in the $202.36 (200 Day Moving Average)-$204.21 & $195.35-198.60.

Should prices enter these zones the chart below will be helpful for establishing how strong each support point may be when tested.

Note that the 200 DMA is i the weakest price range in terms of Buyer:Seller strength in the event that it is tested in the coming week(s).

IWM has support at the $215.38 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $213.38 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $212.04 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $211.29/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.4:0*) price levels, with resistance at the $222.45 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $226.64 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $228.63/share (52-Week High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF had the worst week of the bunch, only notching +2.59% for the weekly gain.

Their RSI is midway between the neutral point of 50 & the overbought level of 70, sitting at 61.32, while their MACD is poised to cross the signal line bullishly on Monday.

Volumes were -7.51% below the previous year’s average (3,296,000 vs. 3,563,715), as investors have remained relatively resilient in terms of participation in trading the blue chip index.

DIA’s week started off with a bullish harami formed by Monday & the previous Friday’s candle last week, but there were signs of weakness as the 10 day moving average’s resistance was unable to be broken through.

Tuesday this trend continued, as the session opened optimistically at the 10 DMA’s resistance level, but was unable to break out above it & wound up declining throughout the day, so low as to even test the ~$405/share level & the session ultimately resulted in decline.

The cautious sentiment carried on into Wednesday, where prices opened lower, tested all the way down to break beneath the support of the 50 day moving average temporarily, before recovering to go on to test & get rejected by the 10 DMA’s resistance & ultimately close for an advancing session.

Thursday saw DIA open just below the resistance of the 10 DMA, test lower almost all the way down to Wednesday’s opening price level, before DIA rallied higher, broke through the 10 DMA & closed above it turning it into a support level.

Friday is where things got interesting, as the day opened on a gap up, did not test much lower than the open & trudged higher on the highest volume of the week.

However, the size of Friday’s candle’s upper shadow is cause for concern, as it signals that the bears came out in droves & took profits sending the closing price lower than the day’s high.

Like the previously mentioned names, volume will be a heavy part of the story this week for DIA in terms of dictating where market participant sentiment lies.

Their RSI is also approaching the level it reversed at last month like the other three ETFs mentioned above, and while DIA’s may venture slightly higher as the index is filled with blue chip names, that would begin encroaching on overbought territory, which would trigger some form of consolidation/correction in price.

In the event that is triggered & prices decline there is a strong zone of support in the $399-400 & $395.08-397.76 price ranges that have multiple touch-points each within them & it will be interesting to see how they hold up, given that they have had limited testing against downside movements.

The table below can help assess how strong each support level may be based on historic Buyer:Seller activity.

DIA has support at the $413.33 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $410.33 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $403.79 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $400.81/share (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels, with resistance at the $416.55/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

The Week Ahead

Monday starts the week off with the Empire State Manufacturing Survey data at 8:30 am & there are no major earnings reports.

U.S. Retail Sales & Retail Sales minus Autos are due out Tuesday at 8:30 am, followed by Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization data at 9:15, before Business Inventories & Home Building Confidence Index data is released at 10 am.

Ferguson reports earnings before Tuesday’s opening bell.

Wednesday begins with Housing Starts & Building Permits data at 8:30 am before the eagerly anticipated FOMC Interest Rate Decision at 2pm & Fed Chair Powell’s Press Conference at 2:30 pm.

General Mills reports earnings before Wednesday’s opening bell, with Steelcase scheduled to report following the session’s close.

Initial Jobless Claims & the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey data come out Thursday at 8:30 am, followed by Existing Home Sales & U.S. Leading Economic Indicators at 10 am.

Thursday brings Cracker Barrel, Darden Restaurants, Endava & FactSet’s earnings call’s before the session opens, with FedEx, Lennar, & MillerKnoll all scheduled to report after the close.

There are no major economic announcements or earnings reports due out on next Friday.

See you back here next week!

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM OR DIA AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF fell -4.14% last week, while the VIX closed at 22.38, indicating a one day implied move of +/-1.41% & a one month implied move of +/-6.47%.

Their RSI is trending downward & sits at 41.19, while their MACD has crossed over bearishly & is in decline.

Volumes were still weak, coming in -19.47% below the previous year’s average volume (55,142,500 vs. 68,478,379 ((Note that this week’s data source is different, hence the rounded weekly figure*))), which as noted in previous weeks when we look at from the perspective of March 31,2024’s market note we see that this is even weaker participation, given that volumes have declined markedly following April 2024.

The average calculation has been using a low volume environment for coming on five months, meaning that the benchmark average volume calculation is nearly half diluted with very low volume compared to prior year’s.

This makes the clear lack of confidence in the market based on volume even more jarring, but is not something that is being mentioned very frequently.

September started with a bang for SPY, as last Tuesday on the first trading day of the month following the Monday holiday, when the day opened above the 10 day moving average’s support before blowing through it to the downside to test the 50 DMA’s support.

The 50 DMA held & the session closed above it, while volumes were close to the previous Friday’s advancing volume.

The negativity continued on Wednesday when SPY opened just above the 50 day moving average’s support, tested lower but the 50 DMA maintained strength & SPY would up testing higher & settled the session still down, but higher than it opened.

Wednesday’s candle was a spinning top, indicating that there was some uncertainty on the part of market participants, which is supported by the session’s low volume.

Thursday the uncertainty continued, as the session opened within the prior candle’s real body, tested higher before breaking down through the 50 DMAs support thanks to the bears, but the bulls were able to force the close to be back around that 50 DMA, resulting in a bearish spinning top candle on a low volume session, waning confidence & uncertainty continued.

Friday the 50 DMA broke down on a wide range session that resulted in a daily decline of -1.68% on the highest volume of the week; folks were ready to get out of the pool going into the weekend.

Given CPI & PPI are due to be released in the week ahead folks are a bit on edge, particularly as to see what magnitude the readings may contribute towards the impending rate cut later this month.

This coming week all eyes will remain on the volume noted above to see if it increases & in which direction, as that will be the best measurement of market sentiment currently.

The other primary place to keep an eye on will be the 10 & 50 day moving averages, both of which are now acting as resistance levels pressuring down on SPY’s price.

The view of the past few weekly notes that compare the current market situation to last September & October’s are still in play, but an eye will also be kept on July/August as well before that squeezed rally of mid-August that couldn’t must up the ability to break the all-time high for SPY set in July.

The chart below is worth taking a look at when looking at SPY’s current support levels, as they are a bit spaced out, making it even more important to have a read on price level sentiment as they are approached in the future.

SPY has support at the $537.45 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.7:0*), $531.35 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.5:1), $522.92 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.39:1) & $516.69/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.36:1) price levels, with resistance at the $549.04 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2:1), $554.87 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2:1), $555.78 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.6:1), & $564.20/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.8:0*) price levels.

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF that tracks the NASDAQ 100 declined -5.79% last week, faring the worst of the major four index ETFs.

Their RSI is in decline & trending towards the oversold 30 mark, currently sitting at 37.08 while their MACD is in bearish decline.

Volumes were only -5.93% below the prior year’s average last week (40,642, 500 vs. 43,204,980), which while it is the best of the major four index ETFs, it should be noted that there was only one advancing day for QQQ last week, making this rather negative sentiment.

QQQ’s week began on a more sour note than SPY’s, as the ETF broke below the 50 day moving average & continued lower throughout the session to close with the 10 & 50 DMAs as overhead resistance on the second highest volume of the week.

Tuesday & Wednesday were equally as confused as SPY’s as both sessions resulted in spinning top candles on lackluster volume compared to the other days of the week, but QQQ’s Thursday did at least offer a glimmer of hope & optimism as the session did result in an advance, after Wednesday’s opened lower but despite closing down on the day did close above the opening price.

All of this happened while the 10 DMA was crossing bearishly through the 50 DMA, setting up the decline for Friday’s risk off into the weekend -2.68% decline.

While we’ve often noted how NVDA & the other semiconductor/AI components of SPY & QQQ have caused them to advance in similar fashion, one main distinction is how near the 200 day moving average QQQ is.

QQQ sits <2% above their 200 day moving average’s support, which is broken will be indicative of a major loss of investor confidence in the tech-heavy index.

This already happened once briefly in the past month & a half, as one declining session was a large gap down that ultimately pushed higher to close the day down, but higher than the opening price.

This will also be an interesting area to watch as there are a number of ETFs that are specifically focused on individual names & sectors that are components of QQQ, which will likely all be adversely impacted should QQQ trend below their 200 DMA.

As has been previously mentioned on here, QQQ’s slower & more gradual ascent over the past year has set it up with a more solid number of support levels than SPY.

With this in mind, QQQ’s lack of exposure to banks/financials may cause it to drift lower faster than SPY, despite having healthcare names due to the emphasis on technology companies.

It will also be interesting to see if volume from last week holds up, and if it does in which direction the price action is in & the daily range said prices cover as that will be a big tell on market participant sentiment.

QQQ has support at the $448.63 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2.3:0*), $445.28 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 11.5:1), $442.35 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.76:1) & $440.56/share (200 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.76:1) price levels, with resistance at the $459.85 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.9:0*), $468.25 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $472.30 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.5:1), & $475.55/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.5:1) price levels.

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF dropped -5.53% last week, as even the small cap index was unable to fly under the radar during a week of declines.

Their RSI is declining & currently at 41.83, while their MACD has crossed over bearishly & is in decline.

Volumes were -19.21% below the previous year’s average (2,838,000 vs. 3,539,407), as all four days of the week declined on subpar volume.

Tuesday the party got started for IWM with an open above the 10 day moving average’s support & a brief advance higher before tumbling to the downside straight through it on the week’s second highest volume.

Wednesday showed the same lack of conviction but negative feelings as SPY & QQQ, as the day opened on a gap lower, tested & briefly dipped below the 50 day moving average’s support before rallying back & closing higher but still on a declining session with low volume.

Thursday was able to close below the 50 day moving average, turning it from support to resistance, but also confirming that the negative sentiment is here to stay at least in the near-term as the day’s candle completed a bearish engulfing pattern.

Friday confirmed this as the session opened lower, tested back above the resistance of the 50 DMA, before ultimately settling down -1.9% on the day.

IWM is near a number of support levels after a -1% decline further due to the relatively range-bound oscillating it’s price action does as it gradually advances & declines.

However it would be wise to assess the strength & weakness of each support level’s price on the table below to have an understanding of how strong or weak the volume sentiment has previously deemed the price level.

The volume levels of the coming week(s) will also be important for IWM, as it will shed insight into overall market sentiment & whether the small cap names may be a safe haven of sorts during any further decline.

IWM’s 200 day moving average is also only ~3% from Friday’s closing price, causing similar concerns to what was just outlined about QQQ, with the notable difference being that IWM was supported during their recent brief daily brush with the support level in early August.

IWM has support at the $207.27 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.97:1), $204.40 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.97:1), $203.68 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.13:1) & $201.51/share (200 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.13:1) price levels, with resistance at the $209.19 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.4:0*), $209.29 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.4:0*), $211.29 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.4:0*), & $212.49/share (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

DIA, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF dipped -2.82% last week, faring the best for a second consecutive week out of the major four index ETFs.

Their RSI just crossed bearishly through the neutral 50 mark & sits currently at 47.56, while their MACD is in bearish decline.

Volumes were weak though, -19.05% below the previous year’s average (2,865,000 vs. 3,539,407), which is indicative of waning enthusiasm on the part of investors, especially given the blue chip nature of DIA’s component stocks & the fact that three of the past four sessions were declining sessions.

Tuesday started the week off on weak footing for DIA, as prices declined through the support at the 10-day moving average on the highest volume of the week.

Wednesday offered a glimmer of optimism as the session opened higher, went above the 10 DMA’s resistance briefly, but ultimately resulted in what would be a shooting star candle if it came at the end of an uptrend, indicating that there was still blood in the water & bears had unfinished business to handle.

Thursday confirmed the bearish sentiment, as prices opened in line with the 10 DMA’s resistance, before testing much lower & still settling on a decline.

Friday made one last run at the 10 DMA’s resistance before ultimately declining for a -.098% daily loss heading into the weekend on the week’s second highest volumes.

This week DIA’s 50 DMA will be in focus, as prices closed last week within 1% of the support level, but with a lot of bearish sentiment behind the name.

Their 10 DMA’s resistance level is now curled over & applying downwards pressure on price, but much like IWM, DIA has a solid floor of support levels beneath it, making it worth looking at the table below to see how strong each price level is & how likely it is to maintain strength or succumb to selling pressure.

Like the other index ETF’s previously discussed, the period about one year ago from today is a good place to look for clues into how markets may treat DIA in the near-term, particularly in the event that their 200 DMA’s support is tested (-4.72% from Friday’s closing price).

DIA has support at the $401.88 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $399.31 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2:1), $397.76 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2:1) & $396.62/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2:1) price levels, with resistance at the $411.25 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $413.33 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $416.55/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

The Week Ahead

Monday the week begins with Wholesale Inventories at 10 am & Consumer Credit data at 3pm.

Calavo Growers, Mission Produce, Oracle & Rubrik all report earnings after Monday’s closing bell.

NFIB Optimism Index data is reported at 6 am on Tuesday.

Academy Sports + Outdoors & Cognyte Software report earnings Tuesday morning before the opening bell, with Dave & Buster’s Entertainment, GameStop & Petco Health & Wellness due to report after the session’s closing bell.

Wednesday morning Consumer Price Index, CPI Year-over-Year, Core CPI & Core CPI Year-over-Year are all reported at 8:30 am.

Oxford Industries reports earnings after Wednesday’s closing bell.

Initial Jobless Claims, Producer Price Index, Core PPI, PPI Year-over-Year & Core PPI Year-over-Year are all due to be reported at 8:30 am Thursday, with the Monthly U.S. Federal Budget data coming out at 2pm.

Thursday morning’s earnings reports include Caleres, Kroger, Lovesac & Signet Jewelers, with Adobe & RH scheduled to report after the session’s close.

Friday the week winds down with Import Price Index & Import Price Index minus Fuel at 8:30 am, followed by Consumer Sentiment (prelim) data at 10 am & there are no noteworthy earnings reports scheduled for the day.

See you back here next week!

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM OR DIA AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF added +0.28% this past week, while the VIX closed the week at 15.00, indicating an implied one day move of +/-0.95% & an implied one month move of +/-4.34%.

Their RSI is trending towards overbought conditions & sits at 62.11, while their MACD is bullish, but has been moving towards the signal line & its histogram is declining, indicating waning sentiment & an impending bearish crossover on the horizon.

Volumes were still weak, coming in -39.54% below the past year’s (diluted since May) average volume (41,456,061 vs. 68,568,837), as investors close out the summer months & brace for what looks set to be a more volatile September.

Monday started on as a declining day for SPY on low volume, before Tuesday recovered some of the losses but on very weak volume, indicating that there was still not much appetite for risk.

Wednesday is where the real cracks began to show for SPY, as the session resulted in a decline on the second highest volume of the week.

Recall that volume has been what we have been focusing on recently as it provides a measure of actual participation & sentiment behind the market’s movement & behavior.

When markets are off all-time highs & have limited support levels nearby the volume is going to be a great indicator of actual market sentiment.

The other warning sign that flashed on Wednesday was that while the market opened near Tuesday’s close, it tested below the support of the 10 day moving average during the day & closed in-line with it.

Given that the volume was second highest of the week, it became evident on Wednesday that we are entering another period of risk-off sentiment & what will likely become a time of heightened volatility.

Thursday continued this theme, as SPY opened at about the middle of Wednesday’s candle’s real body & tested higher, before collapsing, testing below the 10 DMA’s support again & closing lower than it opened, just beneath the 10 DMA.

Friday the bulls regained control though, although the day did test below the 10 DMA again, but at the end of the day a surge in volume compared to the rest of the week saw market participants squeeze prices higher as the day closed with a +0.95% advance.

Heading into the new week all eyes will be on the support of the 10 & 50 day moving averages for SPY, as well as its trading volume.

The consolidation range of the past couple of weeks has not shown much strength & with the low volumes that we are seeing it appears that we are due to a little break & some near-term declines.

While not all earnings disappointed, most companies have reported now leaving less chances for an upside catalyst in the near-term & the fact that neither Friday nor any day over the past month & a half have been able to reach SPY’s recent all-time high leaves little room for optimism.

Couple these points with the really low volumes we’ve been seeing & it begins to look even more bleak & less likely that we’ll find reason to begin trending upwards again in the near-term.

Given how spread out SPY’s support levels are up here, it’ll be wise to watch price in relation to the 50 DMA, as the support level is currently -2.56% (Friday’s closing levels) below their price.

While the spreads between the 10 & 50 DMA are not as narrow as they were in last September, there are certainly many similarities between what we are seeing in today’s market compared to just one year ago & it will be something to keep an eye on.

It is worth taking a look at the table below to assess the strength of their support levels, as the table displays the ratio of Buyers:Sellers (or Sellers:Buyers) at each price level SPY has traded at over the past 1-2 years & may shed light into how market participants will behave at these levels again.

SPY has support at the $560 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.8:0*), $554.87 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2:1), $548.73 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2:1) & $537.45/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.7:0*) price levels, with resistance at the $565.16/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price level.

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF that tracks the NASDAQ 100 fared the worst of the major four index ETFs, declining -0.78% for the week.

Their RSI is near the neutral 50 mark & sits currently at 54.53, while their MACD has recently remained bullish but is declining towards the signal line & looking ready to cross over bearishly in the coming day or two.

Volumes were also weak, coming in -22.79% below the prior year’s average volume (33,309,777 vs. 43,144,086), which is negative from both the perspective of a lack of participation vs. the comparison when made back in March (per 8/18/2024’s Weekly Review Note) & from the perspective of how bearish volume is standing taller at higher levels than volume does on many bullish days.

Much like SPY, QQQ’s week last week also started off on a bearish note, as Monday’s session declined to the support of their 50 DMA, which is closed near.

Tuesday opened lower but was able to break above the 50 day moving average’s resistance & briefly broke above the 10 DMA’s, but settled for the day near the 10 DMA.

Wednesday is when the fun broke out, as the session opened higher than Tuesday’s session, but ultimately sold off & formed a bearish engulfing pattern, indicating that there would be more difficulty on the horizon for QQQ.

Thursday confirmed this when QQQ declined again on the strongest volume of the week (Wednesday’s was second strongest, followed by Friday’s).

The session opened about midway through the range of Wednesday’s price action, tested higher, breaking above the 10 DMA’s resistance briefly before tumbling below the 50 DMA, testing further down & ultimately being unable to close above the 50 DMA’s resistance.

Friday’s candle would be characterized as a hanging man (bearish) if it came at the end of an uptrend & not a consolidation range, but prices were squeezed higher to celebrate the last session of August, despite the day’s lower shadow signaling that there is a lot more people are getting happy about to be found to the downside for QQQ.

As I’ve noted before, QQQ & SPY have very similar patterns, however QQQ did not ascend with as high of a velocity as SPY did over the past year, which gives them the benefit of more local support touch-points.

While this is good, one issue that they have is that even the slightest decline from Friday’s closing price puts them trading under their 10 & 50 DMA’s, with the 200 DMA only -7.8% below Friday’s close.

Still, the week ahead for QQQ might benefit from looking at their chart from this time last year & noting the similarities between September & October of 2023 to July & August 2024.

It would also be beneficial to familiarize yourself with the price level volume sentiment table below & to browse our breakdown of the buyers:sellers strength at their support & resistance levels.

It will also be interesting to see how long it takes for QQQ to begin filling its gaps from August given that their price is already getting downward pressure from the 10 & 50 DMAs & then keep track of how long it takes SPY to follow suit.

QQQ has support at the $475.55 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.5:1), $473.92 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.5:1), $467.89 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.7:0*) & $459.85/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.9:0*) price levels, with resistance at the $476.93 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.11:1), $485.54 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.3:0*) & $503.52/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.4:0*) price levels.

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF dipped -0.14% for the week, as small cap stocks remained relatively unchanged compared to the other major index ETFs.

Their RSI is trending towards overbought levels & sits currently at 58.83, while their MACD is still bullish but their histogram is waning, which precedes periods of weakness.

Volumes were -36.27% below the past year’s average last week (22,325,177 vs. 35,030,586), which gives the same signals of weakness outlined for SPY & QQQ, although in a bright spot for IWM their declining days last week had the lowest levels of volume (not sure that’s much of a win, but worth noting).

Monday was a bullish day for IWM, however it was flashing bearish signals as well, as the session was unable to close above where it opened & it tested below the close of the previous Friday.

Tuesday the levy broke & IWM opened on a gap down that ended as a spinning top, indicating a great deal of indecision on the part of market participants (but on low volume, as noted earlier).

The downtrend continued on Wednesday with another spinning top candle that tested the support of the 10 day moving average, but was able to stay above it for the session.

Thursday showed that there was more confusion in the small caps, as the day ended on a long legged doji, where price was relatively unchanged from open to close but the upper & lower shadows show a wide range of prices were tested throughout the session.

Friday continued the “week of uncertainty” for IWM, as the week concluded on a spinning top candle that while the open/closing price action was concentrated in the upper end of the candle, the lower shadow tested down to the 10 day moving average’s support, meaning that we will likely see more retests of this support in the coming week.

As frequently noted in the weekly posts, IWM tends to oscillate around a trading range then leg higher or lower much more than SPY or QQQ, so there is quite a bit of support for IWM at these price levels that are nearby.

However, it should be noted that the 200 day moving average has now moved into that support zone & is sitting right in the middle of it.

As the 200 DMA continues to climb, should IWM break down below it that would likely indicate that the support zone itself will break down & will be something to keep an eye on & to continue to reassess the strength of the price levels.

This is also highlighted in the table below where the $193.99/share price level begins a seller dominated zone where there have been 3.79 sellers:buyers in terms of volume sentiment, which would likely trigger a further sell off into the $189.99/share block where the Sellers:Buyers ratio has been 1.46:1 until the $187.99 price level.

Given IWM’s proximity to their 52-week high, expect to see some profit taking in the coming week & be mindful of how the larger cap indexes are moving, as with them all at all-time highs & IWM near a 52-week high that may be the recipe for folks exiting the pool altogether vs. rotating into small caps.

IWM has support at the $217.26 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $215.38 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $211.61 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.4:1) & $211.29/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.4:0*) price levels, with resistance at the $222.45 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $226.64 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $228.63/share (52-Week High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF had the strongest week of the major four indexes, advancing +1.06% for the week as the blue chip names weathered the semiconductor storm fallout the best.

Their RSI is trending towards overbought conditions & sits at 67.47, while their MACD is still bullish, but beginning to look overextended & their histogram is weakening, indicating that there is likely a bearish crossover coming by Thursday of this week.

Volumes were -15.72% below the past year’s average volume (2,978,636 vs. 3,525,088), as DIA has managed to maintain the closest semblance of normal volumes of the major four index ETFs all year, while the others have waned.

DIA closed the week out at a new all-time high, but the path to get there was certainly filled with uncertainty.

Aside from Thursday which eclipsed the rest of the week’s volumes their trading volumes were unremarkable, and given the way Thursday’s candle closed out as a high wave spinning top that closed lower than it opened, it appears a lot of people were taking profits there & that the bull run up is in jeopardy.

The long lower shadow on Friday’s candle also gives off that sentiment, especially when paired with the second lowest volumes of the week.

While there is a cluster of support levels not too far down from DIA’s current price, the same moving average relationships & strength of sentiment at different price levels will be what to watch in the coming week, along with what the current week’s volumes do.

DIA may have lost the least amount of average volume of the major four index ETF’s we’ve compared here, but given that it was so highly concentrated just on being from Thursday it is hard to say that this is a sign of strength.

If this continues into this week it should be a reason for investors to be looking at markets with a very skeptical eye & be viewed as a signal of a lack of confidence overall.

DIA has support at the $413.33 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $411.30 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $400.52 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $399.31/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2:1) price levels, with resistance at the $416.55/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price level.

The Week Ahead

There are no major economic data announcements or earnings reports on Monday as it is Labor Day in the U.S.

S&P Final U.S. Manufacturing PMI is announced Tuesday at 9:45 am, followed by Construction Spending & ISM Manufacturing data at 10 am.

Hello Group reports earnings Tuesday morning, with GitLab, PagerDuty & Zscaler reporting after the closing bell.

Wednesday begins with U.S. Trade Deficit data at 8:30 am, followed by Job Openings & Factory Orders data at 10 am & the Fed’s Beige Book at 2pm.

Dick’s Sporting Goods, Dollar Tree, America’s Car Mart, Ciena, Core & Main, Hormel Foods, REV Group & Torrid all report earnings before Wednesday’s opening bell, with AeroVironment, C3.ai, Casey’s General, ChargePoint, Copart, Couchbase, Credo Technology Group, Descartes, Hewlett Packard Enterprise, Phreesia, Sprinklr, Verint Systems & Yext all scheduled to report earnings after the closing bell.

ADP Employment, Initial Jobless Claims & U.S. Productivity (revision) data all come out Thursday at 8:30 am, with S&P final U.S. Services PMI data coming out at 9:45 am & ISM Services data at 10 am.

Thursday kicks off with earnings from Korn Ferry, Nio, Science Applications International, Shoe Carnival & The Toro Company, with Broadcom, Argan, Braze, DocuSign, Guidewire Software, Smartsheet, Smith & Wesson Brands, UiPath, Veradigm & Zumiez due to report after the session’s close.

U.S. Employment Report, U.S. Unemployment Rate, U.S. Hourly Wages & Hourly Wages Year-over-Year are all released Friday at 8:30 am, followed by New York Fed President Williams speaking at 8:45 am.

Friday morning’s earnings reports include ABM Industries, Brady, BRP Inc. & Genesco.

See you back here next week!

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM OR DIA AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF gained +4% this past week, although volumes became heavily muted again, while the VIX closed the week at 14.8, indicating an implied one day move of +/-0.93% & a one month implied move of +/-4.28%.

Their RSI has recently flattened out after climbing up to 59.6, while their MACD has crossed over bullishly in the wake of the run up of the past couple of weeks.

Volumes were dismal, coming in -32.36% below average for the week vs. the previous year (47,394,583 vs. 70,064,027), which as noted last week is even lower than what it appears, given that last week’s average annual volume (70,443,801) is -9.54% less than what the annual average volume was on 3/31/2024 (77,829,780).

Due to the low volumes since May dragging the average down this average volume is -39.1% down from March of 2024’s average, indicating a severe lack of participation that while summer vacations may explain some of, is still not a sign of overall confidence in stocks at these price levels.

Monday began SPY’s week on a note of uncertainty, as the session opened above the resistance of the 10 day moving average, it fluctuated around it all day before closing below it’s opening price, just above the 10 DMA’s support on very low volume.

Tuesday opened with a gap higher that never tested the 50 day moving average’s resistance, but was a wide range session that moved just beneath it by the close.

Tuesday’s volume was higher than Monday’s & the second highest of the week, but was still unremarkable when compared to the average volume statistics noted above.

Wednesday’s session was interesting, as the day opened higher, retraced down ~25% of Tuesday’s candle’s real body, while also testing & briefly breaking above the resistance of the 50 day moving average, before ultimately closing slightly higher near the 50 DMA.

What made Wednesday’s session even more interesting was that the volume was also very low like Monday’s, the session closed by the 50 DMA & the resulting candlestick was a hanging man (bearish).

Things got more interesting Thursday, when on the week’s highest volume SPY gapped dramatically higher & based on the size of the upper & lower shadows of the day’s candle, did not stray much higher or lower than the day’s opening & closing prices.

The week closed on another light volume day (middle of the five days) with Friday opening near the top third of Thursday’s candle, not testing much lower, before advancing to close +0.22% for the day.

As has been noted for the last few weeks, paying attention to volume flows will be particularly important in the coming week(s), as while prices are moving upwards, there has been such limited participation that it is difficult to see price action reflecting true bullish sentiment.

The “Adam” scallop formed during August does not reflect anything that looks confidently bullish, and with the low participation rates we’ve been seeing now for months it is difficult to see enough strength being generated to force any major upwards movements that challenge/break past the all-time SPY high from July.

The coming week features the July FOMC minutes being released on Wednesday, more earnings reports & Fed Chair Powell speaking on Friday at Jackson Hole, making it very likely that we’re looking at one final squeeze before a long couple of months.

It is also worth noting that SPY does not often gap up twice in 10 days without some form of consolidation/losses in the very near-term, which is something that should be kept in mind moving into the new week.

While SPY’s MACD is bullish, it is at the steepest incline since the end of October/early November 2023, back when volumes were much higher than they’ve been for the past few months.

This raises a skeptical brow when looking at recent results given that the low participation rate means that there is not much fuel pushing prices higher.

Wednesday & Friday will be interesting days to watch, particularly as their RSI continues to reach higher & inch closer towards overbought conditions.

Also, on the news/earnings front it is important to note that NVDA will be reporting next week, which if it doesn’t impact volumes in the meantime for SPY will show that the markets are currently running on fumes.

It’s tough to see a stab taken again at breaking the all-time high price in the near-term, particularly as while SPY broke above the $554.87/share resistance point briefly on Friday, it retreated back towards it by the close to close below it.

SPY has support at the $544.60 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.22:1), $537.45 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.7:0*), $534.83 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.5:1) & $531.35/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.5:1) price levels, with resistance at the $554.87 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2:1) & $565.16/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF advanced +5.47% last week, as investors most eagerly piled into the technology heavy index (figuratively, as volumes were still very low).

Their RSI has also flattened out after advancing for the past two weeks & currently sits at 57.05, while their MACD is bullish after crossing the signal line on Wednesday.

Volumes were -18.76% below the previous year’s average (35,824,206 vs. 44,097,003), indicating that the near-term risks outlined in SPY above are also impacting QQQ & should be though about while analyzing the current state of the market.

When comparing this past week’s volume to that of 3/31/2024 it is -27.3% lower (vs. 49,253,412), which throws out any idea of the current market environment being strong.

Monday the week began with the lowest volume of the week, & on a note of uncertainty, as the day closed in a long-legged doji that opened & closed above the 10 day moving average’s support, but also tested below it.

Bulls proved to be the winners on Tuesday though, when the week’s highest volume propelled QQQ to a gap up session that only tested higher as the day wore on.

Volume dipped a little bit on Wednesday, which despite being much higher than Monday’s levels gave off a bearish feeling as the session ended as a hanging man candle that closed below it’s open after opening on a gap up.

Thursday produced another gap up & the third highest volume of the week, which while like Tuesday also did not test much higher above or below the open or close, was able to break above & close above the resistance of the 50 day moving average.

Friday closed the week out on a note of further uncertainty/reason for skepticism, as despite having the week’s second highest volume, the day opened in line with the 50 day moving average, tested lower & higher before settling higher into an uncertain spinning top candle that’s straddling the 50 DMA.

Given the events of the coming week or two that adds to the idea of the last attempt at a pump before disappointment keeps a new all-time high from being established for QQQ.

As volume continues to be a main point of interest & SPY & QQQ’s charts are still highly similar we’ll focus more on the current positioning of QQQ’s moving averages to look at in addition to their volume (also applicable to SPY).

4.76% separate QQQ’s 10 & 50 day moving averages, with the 10 DMA having curled upwards on Wednesday.

-4.39% to the south of QQQ’s 10 DMA lies its 200 DMA, while prices on Friday closed only +0.39% above the 50 DMA’s support.

Prices have now been condensing & drawing the three moving averages & price closer together during a period of low volume.

While the volume doesn’t exactly align, QQQ’s one year daily chart may serve as a good reference from this time last year, as in the event that the 10 DMA crosses above the 50 DMA with the low volumes, it is likely to see similar price action as mid-September 2023.

This becomes even more interesting when the RSI is tossed into the mix, as it currently is in the same neighborhood that it was in about a year ago.

It is also worth noting that since the decline that began in July QQQ has not set any new support levels that are underneath the current price action, indicating that there is not much recent strength.

While the gaps & their upside/downside extremes can be viewed as support & resistance, this ties into the rapid rate of ascent that we’ve watched likely being unsustainable & done in precaution of declines in order to scrape out a handful of extra points to the upside from folks willing to hop back into the pool at these levels.

QQQ has support at the $473.43 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.5:1), $459.85 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.9:0*), $453.43 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.62:1) & $448.63/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2.3:0*) price levels, with resistance at the $475.55 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.5:1) & $503.52/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.4:0*) price levels.

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF climbed +2.97% last week, mostly due to the gap up on Thursday.

Their RSI has also begun to flatten out at 52.68, while their MACD is still in bearish territory but looks set to bullishly cross the signal line in the coming day or two.

Volumes were -17.96% below average last week compared to the year before’s average (28,824,348 vs. 35,133,049), which while it indicates weakness in the near-term is a testament of the sturdiness of IWM & its components.

Using the 3/31/2023 comparison date, current average annual volumes are +0.07% higher (3/31/2024’s avg. annual volume was 35,133,049), which is far more robust than SPY & QQQ.

This likely is primarily attributed to the lack of exposure that IWM has to NVDA & the semiconductor stocks, as well as the other artificial intelligence & data center components.

IWM’s volumes have remained relatively consistent over the past year, with random fluctuations that went both to the upside & downside here & there; however the recent low volumes should be viewed the same as those of SPY & QQQ in terms of poor participation equaling poor sentiment & weakness.

Monday kicked off IWM’s week on a bearish note & weak volume, before Tuesday was able to open higher, tested most of Monday’s range to the downside, before rallying higher & closing at the point where the 10 & 50 day moving average’s were meeting.

Wednesday is when the 10 DMA officially crossed below the 50 DMA, which was interesting as the session opened on a gap up above both, only to test back below the 10 DMA’s support before ultimately closing in line with it.

Thursday threw a wildcard into the mix, when the week’s highest volume came about on a gap up session that resulted in a high wave spinning top, indicating that although there was a lot of movement, in the end it resulted in a high degree of uncertainty.

While the bullish won due to the advance, it was not without a challenge & there is still a bit of downside/bearish sentiment out among market participants.

Friday’s candle is not a shooting star (bearish), but certainly looks like one if its real body was smaller.

The upper shadow does indicate that there is not much more upside appetite for IWM from the current price levels, although that could be changed if there was more upside volume in the next week or so, but the current picture is not painting that to be likely.

For IWM, it would be wise to watch the support & resistance levels & their historic volume sentiment this coming week, as they tend to fluctuate around price levels more often than SPY & QQQ.

In the event that the 10 DMA bullishly crosses the 50 DMA, if there is not sufficient volume behind the movement then there is still reason to be near0-term skeptical, particularly due to all of the events on the near-term horizon.

IWM has support at the $211.29 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.4:0*), $209.29 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.4:0*), $209.19 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.4:0*) & $208.38/share (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.4:0*) price levels, with resistance at the $215.38 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $226.64 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $228.63/share (52-Week High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF had the weakest week of the major four index ETFs, adding only +2.93%, despite having the sturdiest volume of the bunch.

Their RSI is still advancing & sits at 60.39, while their MACD crossed the signal line bullishly on Friday.

Volumes were -3.47% below the prior year’s average (3,438,955 vs. 3,562,534), as blue chip names have maintained strength over the past year compared to the components of other indexes.

Monday was the week’s only bearish day, which also came on the lowest volume session of the week, where prices opened higher but below the 10 DMA’s resistance, before ultimately testing lower & closing below the 50 DMA’s support.

Prices also tested lower than the closing price, indicating that there was more appetite for lower prices, but the bulls were able to squeak out only a minor loss.

Tuesday had the third highest volume of the week, opening by Monday’s open, testing a little bit lower below the support of both moving averages before rallying higher & closing at about its daily high price.

Wednesday the march higher continued on the week’s highest volume before Thursday & the week’s second highest volume resulted in a gap up open.

Thursday did test lower before ultimately becoming an advancing session, while Friday also resulted in a +0.29% advance, but on the second lowest volume of the week, indicating a “soft” risk off Friday.

Due to the relatively constant demand for DIA components they may weather any near-term storms the best of the major index ETFs, but are still not subject to the same concerns outlined in the sections above.

While the 10 DMA crossing the 50 DMA bullishly is imminent in the next day or so, the focus on DIA should be on volume, particularly the strength of volume at support & resistance levels.

There is a large buildup of support levels in the wake of the consolidation period that began January 2024 & has shown DIA oscillate around since which may help prevent much bleeding, but without a good deal of higher volume any moves to the upside will not be convincing without extensive confirmation.

Given that DIA is <2% from their all-time high, this should be given consideration.

DIA has support at the $399.31 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2:1), $397.76 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2:1), $396.62 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2:1) & $395.70/share (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.6:1) price levels, with resistance at the $411.68 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $413.33/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

The Week Ahead

Next week is relatively slow on the economic data front, beginning Monday with U.S. Leading Economic Indicators at 10 am.

Monday morning opens with earnings from Estee Lauder before the opening bell, followed by Fabrinet & Palo Alto Networks after the session’s close.

Tuesday features a speech from Atlanta Fed President Bostic at 1:35 pm.

Lowe’s, Amer Sports, Kingsoft Cloud, Medtronic, Premier & VIP Shop all report earnings Tuesday morning before the opening bell, with Coty, Keysight Technologies, La-Z-Boy, Toll Brothers & ZTO Express due to report after the closing bell.

Minutes of the Fed’s July FOMC meeting are released at 2pm on Wednesday.

Wednesday’s earnings calls begin with Target, Analog Devices, Dycom, Macy’s & TJX before the session’s opening bell, with Agilent Technologies, Nordson, Snowflake, Sociedad Quimica y Minera, Synopsys, Urban Outfitters, Wolfspeed & Zoom Video Communications all due to host their earnings calls after the session closes.

Thursday is a little busier, with Initial Jobless Claims at 8:30 am, S&P Flash U.S. Services PMI & S&P Flash U.S. Manufacturing PMI data at 9:45 am & Existing Home Sales at 10 am.

Advance Auto Parts, Bilibili, BJ’s Wholesale, Canadian Solar, Lancaster Colony, Peloton Interactive, Toronto-Dominion Bank, Viking Holdings & Weibo begin Friday’s earnings calls, with Intuit, Alcon, Bill.com, CAVA Group, Ross Stores & Workday all reporting after the session’s closing bell.

Friday features New Homes Sales data at 10 am & Fed Chair Powell is expected to speak at the Jackson Hole retreat & Buckle will report earnings before the session’s opening bell.

See you back here next week!

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM OR DIA AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF barely budged last week despite volumes returning, as it gained +0.02% for the week, while the VIX closed at 20.37, indicating an implied one day movement of +/-1.28% & a one month implied move of +/-5.89%.

Their RSI is trending back towards the neutral level of 50 & currently sits at 45.29, while their MACD is still bearish, but is moving towards the signal line.

SPY’s MACD will be an area to keep a watch on this week, as the histogram reading is still not showing weakness relative to other days since it’s bearish crossover & the past Tuesday, Thursday & Friday’s bullish sessions are n0t convincing of strength, meaning that the MACD line may not reach the signal line next week to cross over bullishly.

Volumes were +16.58% above average last week compared to the prior year (82,123,380 vs. 70,443,801), which was a welcome change after months of subpar weekly volumes.

It should be noted though that due to the months of below average volume since April enough of that calculation has changed that the annual average volume today is -9.54% compared to what it was in March 31, 2024’s Market Review note (77,829,780 vs. 70,443,801 today), which means that there is still a lot of caution being taken & a lack of confidence.

Last week we noted that volumes would be the determining factor in how to read last week’s trade & think of what direction the market may venture in next & seeing this still relatively weak volume in a week with three bullish sessions is cause for concern.

Monday kicked the week off on a gloomy note, with a ~4% gap down on the highest volume of the past 52-weeks.

While the silver lining is that there was a recovery of sorts during the session & the day closed higher than it opened, the bulls proved to be nowhere near in control at any point of the day.

It did manage to open up the opportunity for SPY to climb in the short-term after the steep decline for a few sessions to enable their oscillators & indicators to recalibrate before the day of reckoning with the 10 day moving average’s resistance comes.

Tuesday saw the week’s second highest volume on an advancing day, but had there been a prior uptrend before it the candle may also be judged as a shooting star (bearish), as much like Monday, Tuesday’s SPY candle had an even longer upper shadow, signaling that the bulls were yet again not in control.

Wednesday threw a bit of a head-fake, gapping up on the open & testing higher before ultimately crashing down on a wide-range day between the open & closing price that resulted in a bearish decline that closed below Tuesday’s open.

While Tuesday had higher volume than Wednesday, Wednesday had the third highest volume of the week & bearishly engulfed Tuesday’s candle in a dramatic fashion, indicating that there is hunger both higher & lower than Tuesday’s price action for SPY.

This brings us to where I’ve been telling people for the past week to pay attention to, what happens once price gets a scent of the 10 DMA’s resistance.

Thursday managed to open mid-way through Wednesday’s candle’s real body range, but was unable to at any point in time trade above Wednesday’s high price & volume began to look like the “above average” days of the past few months, which as noted before were very weak in terms of volume.

Friday told an even gloomier tale, as prices opened at about the close of Thursday’s session, & stated in a relatively tight range below the 10 DMA (although they did briefly tick above it, but not by much).

Friday’s volume was also towards the low end of the past few month’s daily volume readings, which is not a reason for excitement heading into a new week, particularly with earnings from Home Depot & Walmart that will shed light into the state of U.S. consumers, but also PPI (Tuesday) & CPI (Wednesday) which will give more clarity about the state of US inflation.

While the day did not end in a spinning top, the small range of the day’s real body still tells a tale of uncertainty on the part of market participants.

The tight nature of the week’s ascent is also something to note, as it does not paint a picture of strength, but rather more of one of uncertainty, some covering & rebalancing & perhaps a few small profit squeezes.

Last week’s message about the importance of volume carries over into this week as well & will remain more important than daily price changes in the near-term, especially given the important data just mentioned above that we will be getting regarding the strength of consumers.

Lower participation when the price is below the 10 & 50 DMA’s resistance is a recipe for continued declines, or a consolidation within the range of Wednesday’s real body in the event of decent enough news/earnings results or for more, steeper declines in the event of poor results.

Another area to keep an eye on this week is the $525-529.99 price range, as it historically over the past 1-2 years has been dominated by Buyers at a rate of 5.6:1, but currently has no support levels in that window.

While buyers have often come out in droves here, it has no foothold in terms of support levels, making the $522.92 the next level of support (once $531.35/share is passed through).

This may be problematic as Sellers have dominated that area 1.38:1 over the same time period, and with the exception of $515-519.99, the rest of the way down to $496/share is either even 1:1 ($510-514.99/share) else seller dominated until $495.99/share.

Should $565.16/share be the head of a bearish head & shoulders forming, that would match the math & length of time between the left shoulder & the head where there are support levels at $497.94 & $492.27).

To reach the lower of those two support levels would be a decline of ~7.6% from where Friday closed.

It will also be worth keeping an eye on SPY’s Average True Range to see if the range becomes expanded in the face of more volatility.

As for the upside, the $540-544.99/share range is seller dominated 1.22:1 in the past 1-2 years, which is where the 50 day moving average’s resistance currently sits.

Should prices break above the 10 DMA & become wedged between the 10 & 50 DMAs the volume levels of each day in relation to their move will also be the telltale as to where things may be heading in the near-term & be just as important to watch as if in decline.

SPY has support at the $531.35 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.5:1), $522.92 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.38:1), $516.69 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.35:1) & $510.27/share (Volume Sentiment: Even, 1:1) price levels, with resistance at the $533.53 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.5:1), $537.45 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.7:0*), $542.71 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.22:1) & $554.87/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2:1) price levels.

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF that tracks the NASQAQ 1000, fared slightly better than SPY & closed the week up +0.37% as the top two performing indexes of the week more or less tread water.

Their RSI is trending back towards the neutral level of 50 & is currently at 42.62, while their MACD is similar to SPYs; bearish but based on the histogram it is uncertain as to whether or not the MACD line will actually cross bullishly over the signal line in the near-term.

Volumes were +29.64% above average last week compared to the previous year’s average volume (57,400,080 vs. 44,277,827), but much like SPY this doesn’t matter much, as using the 3/31/2024 article data their average volume has declined by -10.1% (was 49,253,412).

QQQ’s chart reads heavily similar to SPY’s, which is to be expected as the really on major difference over the past year has been that SPY ascended more rapidly & as a result has enjoyed having more local support levels than SPY, but for the most part they’ve behaved very similarly.

One major area of difference though that should be considered is that Monday’s gap down open was below QQQ’s 200 day moving average, indicating a severe lack of confidence in the index.

This is important as it signals both the clear lack of confidence in the NASDAQ 100 component companies, but also historically once that’s been crossed over via a daily candle chart in almost all instances that has predicted future near-term declines (using past decade chart).

With this in mind, the volumes will continue to be an area of keen focus for the coming week with QQQ.

Given how the rest of the week for QQQ was almost a mirror or SPY in terms of the volume & candlesticks I’ll spare the deep dive to focus on QQQ’s 10, 50 & 200 day moving averages.

QQQ’s 200 day moving average has a solid wall of buyers to keeping the price floated above it, but the strongest price level is $444-447.99/share, which places a spotlight on the $448.63/share support level, as if it breaks down there are no support levels in that price zone (where over the past 1-2 years Buyers have overpowered sellers 11.5:1).

Should that break down, we will at least see the 10 DMA bearishly cross the 200 DMA, if not a death cross of the 50 DMA also passing through it to the down side.

This week will be all about the volume again though, but the relationship between prices & these moving averages will also be more important than they were in last week’s note.

Their Average True Range has begun to turn down in the wake of last week’s “recovery” from Monday’s gap down, but in the face of higher volatility it will be worth noting how much higher it goes from here, as the high end of its range will need to expand.

QQQ has support at the $448.63 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2.3:0*), $442.35 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.76:1), $437.86 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.25:1) & $430.58/share (200 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.77:1) price levels, with resistance at the $450.91 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2.3:0*), $459.85 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.9:0*), $472.07 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.5:1) & $475.55/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.5:1) price levels.

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF declined -1.18% last week, faring the worst of the major four index ETFs, as market participants shied away from small cap names.

Their RSI is at 44.27 & currently sits flat in the wake of the declines of the past two weeks, while their MACD is bearish, and in a similar position to SPY’s & QQQ’s in terms of histogram bearish strength & the MACD line’s distance from the signal line being too far off to tell if there will be a bullish crossover or not.

Volumes were +3.02% above average compared to the previous year (36,169,400 vs. 35,108,235), which is interesting as unlike SPY & QQQ, IWM’s average volume has increased by +2.43% (34,276,900) since the 3/31/2024 post.

This has been heavily influenced by the high volumes IWM has experienced since mid-July, but is still worth noting given the other differences between the way SPY & QQQ have traded over the past year vs. IWM & DIA.

One interesting thing of note for IWM compared to QQQ is that Monday opened in a similar fashion in terms of a gap down, but the session’s low was supported by the 200 day moving average & then continued higher throughout the week until Wednesday it opened at the 50 day moving average’s resistance & took a similar tumble as the other major index ETFs.

Tuesday’s high wave candle also did not even come near the 50 DMA’s resistance on the upper shadow, indicating that there is still likely more appetite to the downside.

Thursday’s candle formed a bullish harami pattern with Wednesday’s previous wide-range bearish engulfing pattern, which based on the close being the high (or close to high, based on upper shadow) of the day & Friday’s hanging man candle seems to have been a false bullish flag.

Volumes were inconsistent though, as while three of the five sessions of the week were bearish, Friday’s risk-off into the weekend low volume hanging man candle is certainly a head scratcher for the coming week.

By Wednesday the 10 DMA will likely have crossed bearishly through the 50 DMA, which will cause both to put downward resistance pressure on IWM & begin to push its price into the support of the 200 DMA & the $196.70-198.60 support zone that has been established in 2024.

Another thing to note regarding IWM’s current price level is that the lower end of the range that they have oscillated around in for most of 2024 to date is currently ~9.7% below Friday’s closing price.

Support levels between the two prices are mostly in favor of the buyers, but should prices dip down into the $192-193.99/share level it will be a time to take caution, as over the past 1-2 years this range has been dominated by the Sellers at a rate of 3.79:1.

The good news is that if that $186.53 support level is tested, Buyers have been stronger than Sellers in that $186-187.99 range, at a rate of 4:1, although if that test comes there will be other considerations to take based on where moving averages are in relation to one another & price.

IWM has support at the $204.40 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.97:1), $202.47 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.13:1), $198.60 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.08:1) & $197.41/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.25:1) price levels, with resistance at the $207.87 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.97:1), $209.19 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.4:0*), $209.29 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.4:0*) & $211.29/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.4:0*) price levels.

DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF dipped -0.5% last week, having the second worst week of the major four index ETFs.

Their RSI is flat like IWM’s, while sitting just below the neutral 50 mark & is currently at 47.4, while their MACD is in a similar boat to IWM’s as well, but slightly more horizontal.

Volumes were +29.8% above the prior year’s average volume (4,616,180 vs. 3,556,496), which like IWM is higher than their average annual volume reading from 3/31/2024 by +4.45% (3,405,069 from 3/31/2024).

This can also be largely attributed to the past month & a half’s performance, although DIA’s volume was one of the more consistent of the major four indexes over the past handful of months, as investors & traders showed favor to blue chip names.

One thing of interest for DIA that did not impact the other three indexes is that last week began & ended on notes of uncertainty, with spinning tops for both Monday & Friday’s session.

Monday’s volume towered over the rest of the week’s though, with Thursday having the lowest volume, followed by Friday.

Tuesday’s candle was a clear indicator that the bulls were not in charge & likely will not be heading into this coming week, as prices were able to advance up to the 50 day moving average before retreating back down to settle near $390/share.

Wednesday’s candle was not a bearish engulfing candle as it closed ~$0.20 above Tuesday’s open, but the similar levels of volume between the two days indicated that there was heavy profit taking.

Wednesday’s session also flirted with the 50 DMA but was unable to close anywhere near it, as investors hopped out of the pool.

Thursday opened in the middle of Wednesday’s price range & was able to close at the 50 DMA, setting up Friday to open the session on the 50 DMA.

While Friday was able to advance +0.16%, the low volume signals that the strength of the support at the 50 DMA is questionable at this time, despite the $392-395.99/share price level being Buyer dominated at a rate of 2.6:1 over the past few years.

DIA has a similar setup for support as IWM’s in terms of spending most of 2024 oscillating around a price range, making their near-term volumes even more important than usual, as market participants will be what determines the strength or weakness of these support & resistance levels.

Their 10 day moving average will likely cross over their 50 day moving average by mid-week bearishly, which will also apply downwards pressure on prices, but whether it will be outright declines due to bad data/earnings or a more gentle consolidation within the real body range of Wednesday’s candle has yet to be seen.

DIA has support at the $394.45 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.6:1), $390.85 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.67:1), $390.05 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.67:1) & $386.04/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.05:1) price levels, with resistance at the $395.40 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.6:1), $396.94 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.6:1), $397.60 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.6:1) & $399.64/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.6:1) price levels.

The Week Ahead

Monday starts off on a quiet note in terms of economic data, with the Monthly U.S. Federal Budget data at 2pm.

Ballard Power, Esperion Therapeutics, Fortrea, KE Holdings & Monday.com all report earnings before Monday’s opening bell, followed by Alcon, DHT, Kodiak Gas Services, PACS Group & Rumble after the session’s close.

NFIB Optimism Index data is released Tuesday morning at 6 am, followed by Producer Price Index, Core PPI, PPI Year-over-Year & Core PPI Year-over-Year data at 8:30 am.

Tuesday morning begins with earnings from Home Depot, Hudbay Minerals, Hut 8 Mining, HUYA, IHS Holding Limited, James Hardie, Loar Holdings, Melco Resorts & Entertainment, Mersana Therapeutics, MSG Sports, ON Semiconductor, Paysafe, Sea Limited, Sun Life, Talen Energy & Tencent Music, with Duos Technologies Group, Franco-Nevada, Ibotta, Intapp, Kyverna Therapeutics, Mercury, NCR Atleos, NeuroPace, Nu Holdings, U.S. Physical Therapy & XP all reporting after the session’s close.

Wednesday morning at 8:30 am brings us Consumer Price Index, CPI Year-over-Year, Core CPI & Core CPI Year-over-Year.

Arcos Dorados, Brinker International, CAE, Cardinal Health, Dole, Global-E Online, Marex Group, Performance Food Group, Riskified, SFL Corp, Smith Douglas Homes, UBS & Workhorse Group are due to report earnings Wednesday morning, with Cisco Systems, dLocal Limited, Lumentum, Paycor & StoneCo all due to report after the closing bell.

Initial Jobless Claims, Empire State Manufacturing Survey, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey, U.S. Retail Sales, Retail Sales minus Autos, Import Price Index & Import Price Index Minus Fuel data are all released at 8:30 am on Thursday, Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization data are announced at 9:15 am & Business Inventories data is released at 10 am.

Thursday morning’s earnings calls include Walmart, Alibaba Group Holding, Applied Industrial, Cellebrite, Grab Holdings, NICE, SpartanNash & Tapestry, before Amcor, Applied Materials, Coherent, H & R Block & Ross Stores report after the closing bell.

Friday morning kicks off with Housing Starts & Building Permits data at 8:30 am, followed by Consumer Sentiment (prelim) & Home Builder Confidence Index data at 10 am.

Flower Foods & CI&T report earnings Friday before the opening bell.

See you back here next week!

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARE OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM OR DIA AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***