Category: Market News, Research & Commentary

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF gained +2.93% last week, while the VIX closed the week out at 22.68, indicating an implied one day move of +/-1.43% & an implied one month move of +/-6.56%.

Their RSI is trending higher in the wake of last week & sits currently at 59.37, while their MACD is very bullish, but beginning to look a bit overextended, which will be something to keep an eye on heading into this week.

Volumes were +12.4% higher than the prior year’s average level (62,480,000 vs. 55,589,562), which paints an interesting set up to start the new week for a couple of reasons.

Mind you, in previous weeks/months’ notes (minus last week, as there was no note due to a charity event) I’ve mentioned how for there to be any type of uptrend it needs to find sustainable footing & steady advancing volume that is heavier than we’ve seen.

Last week’s volume was indeed higher, but but when we break down the day-over-day price action things aren’t quite spelling “liftoff” just yet.

Starting with Monday, SPY opened on a gap up with low volume that resulted in a high wave doji candle, covering a wide range of prices during the session, but indicating indecision/a point of “equilibrium” based on the opening/closing prices.

SPY was favoring the downside more than the upside based on the size of the day’s lower shadow, which dipped down as low as $545.02/share, indicating that there was still an appetite that low, despite the day opening on a gap up from Friday’s session.

Tuesday also flashed warning signals, as on yet another low volume session the day opened on a gap lower, but that managed to power higher & form a bullish engulfing candle for the day.

Granted, the preceding day was a doji & the volumes were low, but the day covered a wide range of prices making the bullish engulfing pattern inevitable, and the low volume on a wide-range day is not exactly something that screams “confidence” or “excitement” among market participants.

Wednesday also signaled caution, where another daily bullish engulfing candle pattern occurred on the week’s highest volume session, but again there was a twist.

The session opened on a gap down, before it declined down to the $541.52/share price level, which happened to be just above the support of the 10 day moving average.

Prices then climbed higher to flirt with just below the 50 day moving average’s resistance, and only managed to close just above Tuesday’s closing price.

This is where things get interesting, as there was clearly short-term/intra-day profit taking going on based on the volume, and this session covered the widest range of prices of the entire week.

While a high volume bullish engulfing day tends to be a good sign, the rest of the week casts shadows of doubt upon it.

Thursday opened on a gap up that opened above the 50 DMA’s resistance, went higher to $564.07, but ultimately profits were taken & the price was drive to close lower than the open, but still above the 50 DMA’s support.

While this occurred on the second highest volume of the week, the lower close than opening price & shooting star appearance of the day’s candle cast doubt onto how sustainable the move was.

Friday also added an interesting layer of complexity, as the day opened on a gap higher, but was unable to reach the resistance of the 200 day moving average, indicating that the long-term trend is still in tact.

The day closed on the third highest volume of the week as a spinning top candle, indicating that there’s a lot of indecision in the market.

With that, heading into this week there are a few interesting catalysts to watch, including a notable number of earnings reports due out & the FOMC decision/Powell Press Conference Wednesday.

Tuesday’s trade balance data may also be interesting given how much attention has been being paid to the tariff situation recently, but of the three listed events I’d guess earnings will be the most likely catalyst for market movement in any direction.

Looking into next week’s SPY performance, the big story is the long-term trend line & how sturdy it is.

Currently the 200 day moving average is the next resistance level, and it resides in a Buyer dominated zone (1.54:1), along with the next highest resistance level ($573.62).

The most likely way that the long-term trend is broken to the upside will be temporarily & because of a gap up that opens above the 200 DMA’s resistance.

There are a couple of windows to be closed from last week, which will bring the 50 day moving average’s support into question; but unless we get squeezed higher & rally it seems the most likely upside case is oscillation around SPY’s 200 DMA while awaiting a larger upside or downside catalyst.

There’s quite a bit of uncertainty out there still, as mentioned above, and even in the event of a little bit of positive momentum developing, the $575-548.99/share price zones are Seller dominated, which are another reason that there will need to be significant increases in advancing volume for an uptrend to take place & prevail.

The $576.41/share is the upside point of interest if the long-term trend line is broken out above, as the way that market participants greet that resistance level will lend clues into the higher, but also Seller dominated near-term resistance points in an attempt at an uptrend.

Consolidation from where we sit now looks like filling in of the gaps that were just created on Thursday & Friday, before some type of oscillation around the 50 DMA & 200 DMA to the upside while awaiting a similar catalyst, but this will also be dependent on how price moves due to the changes of the 10 day moving average.

To the downside there will also need to be extra attention paid to the large window created on 4/23/2025, as when that fills in the $508.46, $505.48 & $481.80 marks will all become focal points in terms of range on a one year chart.

The table below lends insight into how market participants may behave at all of the retests listed above based on their behavior over the past ~3 years.

SPY has support at the $564.29 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.46:1), $559.86 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.46:1), $558.91 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.46:1) & $556.01/share (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.46:1) price levels, with resistance at the $570.13 (200 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.54:1), $573.62 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.54:1), $576.41 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.33:1) & $579.17/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.33:1) price levels.

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF advanced +3.44% last week, faring the best of the major four index ETFs.

Their RSI is trending higher & is currently at 60.78, while their MACD is bullish, but beginning to show signs of possible over extension following the two gaps at the end of last week.

Volumes were +5.79% higher than the prior year’s average level (38,702,000 vs. 36,584,821), which like SPY, is not sufficient to claim a sustainable uptrend & last week’s performance leaves many questions about the near-term future for QQQ.

QQQ’s week began on a slow note as well, as a low volume session resulted in a high-wave doji, which while the body resided near the top, did not leave market participants with a strong sense of optimism.

The muted optimism based on the low participation was not a great sign, confirmed by Tuesday opening on a gap down lower.

On even lower volume QQQ was able to power higher despite the soft opening, forming a bullish engulfing pattern with Monday’s candle; however it was not convincing.

Wednesday also signaled frailty for QQQ, as the session opened on a gap lower that was near the low end of Monday’s range, broke down below the $465/share level to reach an intraday low of $462.43, before the week’s strongest volume power it higher to temporarily break above the resistance of the 50 day moving average.

QQQ closed just below the 50 DMA, indicating that the medium-term trend line was still serving as a ceiling & dimming the optimism on true market sentiment.

Thursday opened on a gap up, well above the 50 DMA, broke above the $485/share level intraday, before crumbling to close below its opening price level of the day, forming a shooting star candle & signaling that there was still blood in the water.

Friday the week ended on a note confirming this, as despite a gap up open & brief breakout above the 200 day moving average, QQQ sunk lower to close beneath it & as a spinning top candle, indicating indecision among market participants.

Heading into this week the long-term trend line is going to be in focus, as it managed to close the week as a resistance level.

Should QQQ break out above it the $493.62/share level is the next area of interest, as the $496-499.99/share price zone is a Seller dominated one over the past ~2-3 years, which will pose an issue for QQQ as it tries to climb higher.

Again, as has been noted extensively over the past couple of months, this will require an influx in sustainable advancing volume to actually be meaningful & last.

More likely is that we see a consolidation as the windows caused by the end of week gaps close & prices oscillate between the 50 & 200 day moving averages while we await an upside or downside catalyst.

In terms of declines, should the 50 DMA’s support break down during those window closings, all eyes should direct towards the $445/share price level, as that is the low end of the window from mid-April, with next priority going to $427.93, $421.55 & $402.39/share.

In the meantime, the table below is valuable for assessing the strength & weakness of QQQ’s support/resistance levels when they come back for retests in the near-term based on the past ~2-3 years.

QQQ has support at the $483.36 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.3:1), $473.91 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.19:1), $473.41 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.19:1) & $466.60/share (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2:1) price levels, with resistance at the $489.81 (200 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.16:1), $492.96 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.61:1), $493.62 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.61:1) & $498.96/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.4:1) price levels.

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF climbed +3.28% last week, as small caps were the second favorite names by market participants for the week.

Their RSI is also trending higher & currently is 58.41, while their MACD is bullish, but has shown undulations in its histogram, indicating that there is some weakness due to the consolidation range of the past two weeks (sans Thursday & Friday).

Volumes were -9.32% lower than the previous year’s average (27,004,000 vs. 29,778,606), which casts a shadow of doubt onto the weekly gains, as there was limited participation behind the move.

Monday the week opened on low volume for IWM & signaled immediately that there was uncertainty as to which direction the small cap index would go, as the day resulted in a spinning top candle nestled in the high end of their recent consolidation range.

Tuesday produced a bullish engulfing pattern for IWM, but again on very weak volume, indicating that there was still quite a bit of uncertainty, especially given that Monday’s candle was a spinning top.

The length of the session’s lower shadow also signaled that there was still significant downside appetite, almost to as low as the previous day.

Wednesday followed suit with SPY & QQQ, opening on a gap lower, testing down to the support of the 10 day moving average, before powering higher to briefly break out above the $195/share level & close above the day’s open.

While volumes were higher than Monday & Tuesday, they were still muted for the size of the range that the day’s price action covered.

Thursday opened on a gap up, but resulted in a high wave spinning top that closed on the week’s highest volume.

While this means that there is clearly some high range appetite, the profit taking that drove prices lower both early on in the session & after the highs of the day were hit show that there is more of an interest in preserving capital right now in terms of market participants & the small cap index.

Friday the week wound down on an interesting note, as the session opened on a gap higher to just below the resistance of the 50 day moving average, before on the second highest volume of the week breaking out above it to close above the $200/share price level.

This week will be interesting to see how IWM & the 50 DMA interact, given that their 200 DMA is still rather far above them, indicating that the long-term trend looks stable & won’t change for some time.

In terms of an upside move, while it’s not an official resistance level, the $203.33/share level will be an area of interest to see if the scallop can become a cup & handle & take off, or if we see a denial & consolidation.

If it breaks out to the upside, the $209.27/share level will be the next area of interest, due to its proximity to the 200 day moving average’s resistance.

Like SPY & QQQ, there will need to be an influx in advancing volume that remains consistent before anything on this front is considered possibly more than just a brief pump/squeeze.

The consolidation case from Friday’s close involved the Thursday-Friday window being closed & an oscillation around the 50 day moving average while waiting on an upside or downside catalyst, which will become interesting the closer that the 10 day moving average gets to both levels.

In terms of the downside, the 10 DMA’s support will be a key area to watch, as should prices break down & meet the 10 DMA, controlled bleeding will come from IWM oscillating around it while consolidating lower, else, more dramatic declines call into play the two lowest support levels on their one year chart, $180.76 & $171.71/share.

Using the table below will help navigate these retests as it is all volume sentiments from each price level IWM has traded at over the past ~3 years.

IWM has support at the $198.65 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.3:1), $196.56 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2:1), $195.72(Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.47:1) & $195.01/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.47:1) price levels, with resistance at the $202.46 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.14:1), $205.49 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.13:1), $207.39 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.13:1) & $209.27/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.48:1) price levels.

DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF improved +3% for the week, which is interesting given how low their volume was.

Their RSI is trending higher & currently sits at 56.26, while their MACD is beginning to show signs of being over-extended (which history has shown is less important for DIA vs. other indexes).

Volumes were -36.72% lower than the prior year’s average level (2,022,000 vs. 3,195,498), which is showing a severe level of distrust/caution by market participants, given that the bluechip index was the favorite among market participants for so long, regardless of what the other indexes were doing.

Now we’r not seeing that steady buying anymore, but DIA has still proven to be more closely tied to how IWM is trading, but with more advances as it is still seen as a safer haven for money compared to the small cap names.

Monday DIA opened up on ultra-weak volume & closed as a narrow range, high wave spinning top candle, indicating that there was a lot of indecision, pumping & profit taking.

Tuesday featured less volume, but managed to open higher & break above the $405/share level & stay there to close higher, but the limited participation signals that there is a hefty amount of skepticism in the index that was previously the safe haven among the major four indexes.

Wednesday opened in-line with Tuesday’s opening price, tested much lower down to the 10 day moving average, before reversing to trend higher & close out the session as an advance.

Thursday opened on a gap up, tested above the $410/share level, but was swatted back down to below the high of Wednesday to close in a shooting star candle that closed lower than it opened, indicating that there is still a bit of bearishness creeping in, despite the optimistic squeeze higher.

Friday followed the other index ETFs & saw a squeeze pinched higher gap up open for DIA, that managed to break above the resistance of the 50 day moving average & close just above it, but the lowest shadow & proximity away from the long-term trend line is cause for concern.

While the lower shadow can possibly be attributed to profit taking based on it being the second highest volume session of the week, there seems to be other explanations.

DIA has a unique position due to how it has proven resilient when other indexes were consolidating or declining over the past year as times became more volatile.

However, upside case to watch this week is revolving around the 200 day moving average, and whether or not DIA gaps above it, and if so how strongly supported the move is by their volume.

Consolidation case is DIA dips back below the 50 DMA & closes the window from Friday, before oscillating around the 50 DMA waiting for a catalyst one way or the other, and or the bear case.

The bear case here has its target on the 10 day moving average, as it will continue moving higher, and unless folks actually begin jumping out of the pool, there’s still going to be consistent, but muted demand for blue chip names.

When referencing the table below it is wise to keep in mind that DIA has been the most resilient of the four majors, and as a result has a Buyers bias at most price levels from their last ~4-5 years of data for volume sentiment.

If there is a larger reason for folks to jump from the pool then the 10 DMA will certainly break down, but for now it is too ambiguous to tell what may happen.

Regardless, when interpreting the data, read the ratios as “Hotter” or “Colder” compared to one another when seeing a list of multiple Buyer zones in a consecutive series, as from there you can rank the relative strengths of each price level despite being in a swamp of “Buyers”.

DIA has support at the $412.46 (50-Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 3.75:1), $411.96 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.67:1), $408.78 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.67:1) & $407.82/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.17:1) price levels, with resistance at the $413.22 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 3.75:1), $416.73 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.63:1), $419.82 (200 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.63:1) & $427.93/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.33:1) price levels.

The Week Ahead

Monday the week kicks off with S&P Final U.S. Services PMI at 9:45 am, followed by ISM Services at 10 am.

Ares Management, BioCryst Pharma, BioNTech, CNA Financial, Cummins, Freshpet, Henry Schein, Integra, JBT Marel, Ocular Therapeutix, onsemi, Park Hotels & Resorts, Recursion Pharmaceuticals, RLJ Lodging, Twist Bioscience, Tyson Foods & Zimmer Biomet all report earnings before Monday’s opening bell, with Addus HomeCare, Aecom Tech, Air Lease, Ameresco, Atlas Energy Solutions, BellRing Brands, Bright Horizons, BWX Technologies, Cabot, Celanese, Clorox, Corcept Therapeutics, Corebridge Financial, Coterra Energy, Denny’s, Diamondback Energy, Dorman Products, Douglas Dynamics, Ethan Allen, EverQuote, Fabrinet, Ford Motor, Golub Capital, Hims & Hers Health, IAC, ICHOR, Ingevity, Inspire Medical Systems, Interparfums, JELD-WEN, Kilroy Realty, Lattice Semi, Limbach, LTC Properties, Matson, Mattel, Mueller Water, National Health, National Storage Affiliates, Navitas Semiconductor, Neurocrine Biosciences, New Mountain Finance, NJ Resources, ONE Gas, Otter Tail Power, Palantir Technologies, Palomar Holdings, Paymentus, Playa Hotels & Resorts, PRA Group, Primoris Services, Realty Income, Regal Rexnord, Relay Therapeutics, Sabra Health Care REIT, Sun Communities, Syndax Pharmaceuticals, Talos Energy, Tidewater, Titan America, Upwork, V2X, Vertex Pharma, Vimeo, Viper Energy Partners, Vornado Realty Trust & Williams Cos. all reporting after the closing bell.

U.S. Trade Deficit data is released on Tuesday at 8:30 am.

Tuesday morning’s earnings reports include AdaptHealth, ADM, American Electric, Aramark, Array Tech, Atkore International, Avanos Medical, Avient, Axcelis Tech, Ball Corp, CCC Intelligent Solutions, Colliers, Constellation Energy, Cormedix, Datadog, DigitalOcean, Driven Brands, Ducommun, Duke Energy, Embraer, Energizer, Enpro, EVgo, Ferrari, Fidelity National Info, First Watch Restaurant Group, Gartner, Genius Sports, Global Payments, GlobalFoundries, Harmony Biosciences, Ingredion, IPG Photonics, IQVIA, Jacobs Solutions, KBR, Knife River, Kontoor Brands, Krystal Biotech, Kulicke & Soffa, LCI Industries, Lear, Leidos, Lemonade, Louisiana-Pacific, Marathon Petroleum, Marriott, MFA Financial, MPLX LP, Northwest Natural, Novanta, Omnicell, Peabody Energy, Pediatrix Medical Group, Philips, Portillo’s, Premier, Sealed Air, Shoals Technologies, SolarEdge Technologies, Sunoco LP, Sunstone Hotel, TopBuild, Transdigm Group, TreeHouse Foods, UBS, UL Solutions, Uniti Group, Waters, WEC Energy Group, WK Kellogg, Xometry, XPEL & Zoetis, with Advanced Micro Devices, Agilon Health, Allegiant Travel, Amentum Holdings, American Financial, Andersons, Arcosa, Arcus Biosciences, Arista Networks, Assurant, Astera Labs, AZEK, BlackLine, Cadre Holdings, California Resources, Chemours, Chord Energy, Cirrus Logic, Corpay, Corsair Gaming, Coty, Coupang, Cytokinetics, Devon Energy, DHT, Douglas Emmett, Electronic Arts, Energy Transfer, eXp World Holdings, Flywire, Fortune Brands Innovations, Gen Digital, Grand Canyon Education, Grocery Outlet, Halozyme Therapeutics, Helios Technologies, Horace Mann, Innovex International, Intapp, International Flavors, Jack Henry, Jamf Holding, Jazz Pharma, Kinross Gold, Klaviyo, Lucid Group, Lumentum, Manitowoc, Maravai Life Sciences, Masimo, Mercury, Mosaic, MRC Global, NerdWallet, Ovintiv, Par Pacific, Powell Industries, PTC Therapeutics, Qualys, Redfin, Resideo, Revolve Group, Rivian Automotive, Sarepta Therapeutics, Select Water Solutions, Supernus Pharma, Tempus AI, Teradata, The Baldwin Group, Upstart, Varonis Systems, Vestis, Voya Financial, VSE Corp & Wynn Resorts all due to report after the session’s closing bell.

Wednesday features the FOMC Meeting at 2pm, Chair Powell’s Press Conference at 2:30 pm, & Consumer Credit data at 3pm.

Walt Disney, Acushnet, Adient, Ardmore Shipping, ATS, AvidXchange, Avista, Axalta Coating Systems, Azenta, Bandwidth, Barrick, BeiGene, Bentley Systems, Bio-Techne, Bloomin’ Brands, BorgWarner, Bruker, Bunge, CDW, Cencora, Centuri Holdings, Ceva, Charles River, Conduent, Dayforce, Delek US Holdings, Dine Brands, DNOW, Edgewell Personal Care, Elanco Animal Health, Emerson, Entegris, Fiverr, Flex, Fortis, Geo Group, Geron, Hain Celestial, HNI, Johnson Controls, Jones Lang LaSalle, Kennametal, Lantheus Holdings, LifeStance Health Group, LivaNova, Magnera, MarketAxess, MasterCraft, Middleby, National Vision, New York Times, NiSource, ODP, Oscar Health, Owens Corning, Pagaya, Payoneer, Performance Food Group, Perrigo, Rhythm Pharmaceuticals, Rockwell Automation, RXO, Sabre, Shopify, Southwest Gas, Steve Madden, Taboola, Teva Pharma, TPG, Trimble, TripAdvisor, Uber, Unity Software, Verisk Analytics & Vertex all report earnings before Wednesday’s opening bell, followed by ACADIA Pharmaceuticals, ACV Auctions, ADTRAN, Alpha and Omega Semi, AMC Entertainment, Amdocs, American States Water, Amplitude, APA, AppLovin, Arm Holdings, Atmos Energy, Avis Budget, Axon, B&G Foods, B2Gold, Barrett Business, Beyond Meat, Black Hills, Blue Bird, Brighthouse Financial, BrightView, Bumble, Carvana, Centrus Energy, CF Industries, Chesapeake Utilities, Civitas Resources, Cleveland-Cliffs, Coeur Mining, Coherent, Compass Materials, Concentra, Copa Holdings, Core Scientific, CoreCivic, Corteva, Crane NXT, CSG Systems, Curtiss-Wright, Digi International, DoorDash, Dutch Bros, Encore Capital, Energy Recovery, EPR Properties, Esco Tech, Establishment Labs, EVERTEC, Evolus, Excelerate Energy, Fastly, Fidelity National, Fluence, Flutter Entertainment, Fortinet, Forward Air, FS KKR Capital, Genco Shipping & Trading, Genpact, GoodRx, GXO Logistics, H&R Block, Houlihan Lokey, Howard Hughes Holdings, Informatica, Innovative Industrial Properties, IonQ, Jackson Financial, Joby Aviation, Kinetik, Kodiak Gas Services, Kratos Defense and Security, Kyndryl, LandBridge, LegalZoom, Light & Wonder, Magnite, Manulife Financial, Marqeta, Marriott Vacations, MKS Instruments, Murphy Oil, Murphy USA, NCR Atleos, Occidental Petroleum, OPENLANE, Orion Engineered Carbons, Ormat Technologies, Pan Am Silver, Paycom Software, Permian Resources, Pitney Bowes, Primerica, Q2 Holdings, Qiagen, QuidelOrtho, QuinStreet, Radware, RB Global, Remitly Global, Root, Royal Gold, RxSight, Schrodinger, Sinclair Broadcast, SiTime, Sitio Royalties, Skyworks, Sonos, STAAR Surgical, Suncor Energy, Sunrun, Symbotic, Tetra Tech, U.S. Physical Therapy, UGI, Veeco Instruments, Veracyte, Verra Mobility, Vishay, Watts Water Technologies, Western Midstream & Zillow after the closing bell.

Initial Jobless Claims & U.S. Productivity data are released on Friday at 8:30 am, before Wholesale Inventories data comes out at 10 am.

Thursday morning’s earnings reports include ACI Worldwide, ACM Research, Alight, Allegro Microsystems, Allete, Altice USA, Americold Realty Trust, Appian, Aspen Aerogels, Autohome, BCE, BigCommerce, Canada Goose, Cars.com, Cheniere Energy, Choice Hotels, Clear Secure, Cogent Communications, ConocoPhillips, Core Natural Resources, Crocs, Enovis, EPAM Systems, Evergy, First Advantage, Genesis Energy LP, Gray Media, Green Plains, Haemonetics, Hanesbrands, Insmed, Installed Building Products, International Seaways, Janus International Group, Kenvue, Kimbell Royalty Partners, Krispy Kreme, Lamar Advertising, Life Time, Ligand Pharmaceuticals, Lincoln National, MACOM Tech, Malibu Boats, Match Group, MAXIMUS, MDU Resources, Millicom International Cellular, Molson Coors Brewing, N-able, NCR Voyix, NetScout Systems, Nexstar, Nomad Foods, Nova Measuring, Nutrien, Olaplex, Papa John’s, Peloton, PENN Entertainment, Planet Fitness, Playtika, Prestige Consumer, Primo Brands, Privia Health, Restaurant Brands International, Sapiens, ScanSource, Sempra Energy, SharkNinja, Six Flags Entertainment, Somnigroup International, Spectrum Brands, Stagwell, Stevanato Group, Stratasys, Tapestry, Tecnoglass, TEGNA, US Foods, Valvoline, Vericel, Viatris, Vital Farms, Warby Parker, Warner Bros. Discovery, Warner Music Group, Wolverine & YETI Holdings, with Coinbase Global, 1-800-FLOWERS, 10x Genomics, Adtalem Global Education, Affirm, Akamai Technologies, Alarm.com, Alliant Energy, American Healthcare REIT, AMN Healthcare, Applied Optoelectronics, Arlo Technologies, Assured Guaranty, Astrana Health, AvePoint, Barings, Bill.com, CarGurus, Clean Energy Fuels, Cloudflare, Collegium Pharmaceutical, Crinetics Pharmaceuticals, Definitive Healthcare, Diodes, DoubleVerify, DraftKings, Dropbox, EverCommerce, Evolent Health, Expedia Group, Federal Realty Investment Trust, FIGS, Fox Factory Holding, Franco-Nevada, Funko, Globus Medical, Green Dot, Hub Group, HubSpot, ICU Medical, Illumina, Innodata, Innospec, Insulet, JFrog, Lions Gate Entertainment, LPL Financial, Lyft, MARA Holdings, McKesson, Metallus, Microchip, Mitek Systems, MP Materials, News, nLIGHT, Olo, OneStream, Onto Innovation, OUTFRONT Media, Pacira BioSciences, Paramount Global, Pinterest, Post, Progyny, PubMatic, Rackspace Technology, RingCentral, Rocket Companies, Rocket Lab USA, Sensata Technologies, Solventum, SoundHound AI, Sprout Social, Sweetgreen, Synaptics, Texas Roadhouse, The Trade Desk, TKO Group Holdings, Toast, TransMedics Group, Treace Medical Concepts, Trex, Varex Imaging, Victory Capital, Westrock Coffee Company, Wolfspeed, Xponential Fitness, YELP, Ziff Davis, ZipRecruiter & Zymeworks all reporting after the session’s closing bell.

Friday the week winds down with Fed Governor Barr speaking at 6:45 am, Fed Governor Kugler speaking at 8:30 am, Fed Governor Waller & Fed President Williams on a panel at 11:30 am, Fed Governor Cook speaking at 6:45 pm & Fed Governor Bowman, Fed President Musalem & Fed President Hammack speaking on a panel at 7:45 pm.

Algonquin Power & Utilities, Alpha Metallurgical Resources, AMC Networks, ANI Pharmaceuticals, Calumet Specialty Products, Construction Partners, Embecta, Enbridge, Essent Group, Gogo, Hawaiian Electric, Koppers Holdings, Kymera Therapeutics, PAR Technology, Pembina Pipeline, Plains All American, Starwood Property Trust, Sun Life, Sylvamo, TeraWulf & TXNM Energy all report earnings before Friday morning’s opening bell.

See you back here next week!

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM OR DIA AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF fell -1.41% last week, while the VIX closed the week at 29.65, indicating an implied one day move of +/-1.87% & a one month implied move of +/-8.57%.

Their RSI is flat & currently at 42.43, while their MACD is dolphining & looks ready to cross back over bearishly in the coming day or two, as their histogram is waning.

Volumes were +29.18% above the prior year’s average (72,067,500 vs. 55,786,349), indicating that the mood is clearly still bearish, with a side of undecided.

Monday began on a gap up open above the 10 day moving average’s support, but it flashed some warning signs that set the tone for the rest of the week.

The gap up opened just below the $545/share price level, but declined into the day, at one point touching as low as $533.66/share, indicating that there was more downside appetite than upside.

SPY also closed lower than it opened on the day on the second lowest volume of the week, which was not a vote of confidence in the market.

Tuesday confirmed that there was not much excitement, nor bullish sentiment for SPY, as the session tried to advance early, but was unable to reach Monday’s high & the day went downhill from there.

Granted Tuesday had the lowest volume of the week, but it showed that market participants were not interested in the $545/share price level & set the stage for the declines of later in the week.

On Wednesday the floodgates opened, as SPY opened on a gap down, tested up towards Tuesday’s close, but was unable to & collapsed to form a high wave candle with a 3%+ range on the day that closed in-line with the 10 day moving average.

Thursday indicated that there would be further pain on the horizon, as it resulted in a bearish harami pattern, with a spinning top candle that closed lower than it opened; not exactly strong sentiment or a vote of confidence for the coming week.

While the day’s low managed to be supported by the 10 DMA, there was not much strength heading into Easter weekend.

Heading into the new week, the upside case remains the same as it’s been for past month or two; without a consistent uptick in advancing volume there will be no floor build for SPY to rally off of.

Even with a higher open, volume sentiment is not indicating that SPY’s next handful of price levels will be a cakewalk higher through, making it more imperative that a surge in advancing volume accompanies any move higher.

To the downside, things have become interesting after SPY set a new support level at $481.80/share last week, which happens to be the lowest level on their one year chart.

While the $520-524.99/share price level has strong Buyer oriented sentiment historically, should it be retested & broken through that $481.80/share mark is where to be looking next.

The base case for the coming week is to see SPY hug & oscillate around the 10 day moving average, until given a reason to break out one way or the other, which will likely come as a results of earnings reports (particularly the number of companies that pull guidance).

The should the low end of the range break below 4/9/2025’s low, that $481.80/share support level becomes the linchpin that keeps SPY from tumbling lower.

Even more troubling, there’s quite a bit of Seller dominated price zones between SPY’s current price & that level, so while that price level is a stronghold for Buyers at a rate of 5.67:1, it could very well break down & we see that strong ratio dilute given the amount of steam it has & amount of negative sentiment.

Again, this will likely come from earnings calls in the next week or two, else based on tariff news.

SPY has support at the $ 524.21(10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 4.43:1), $505.48 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.2:1), $487.65 (Volume Sentiment: ) & $481.80/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 5.67:1) price levels, with resistance at the $534.38 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.41:1), $548.03 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.44:1), $548.62 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.44:1) & $558.91/share (Volume Sentiment: 1.46:1) price levels.

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF dipped -2.27%, as the tech-heavy index was not immune from the week’s declines heading into the holiday three day weekend.

Their RSI is also flat at the 42.11 level, while their MACD has a waning histogram & is dolphining, looking primed to cross the signal line bearishly in the next couple of days.

Volumes were +17.34% higher than the previous year’s average levels (43,290,000 vs. 36,892,302), indicating that there is still quite a bit of bearish sentiment around QQQ’s component stocks & money looking to be taken out of the market.

QQQ’s Monday looked a lot like SPY’s, a gap higher to the $465/share level, followed by a retreat that brought it below $455 temporarily, before it was able to rally & close at $457.48/share.

Tuesday the diving board was set up, when a bearish harami pattern emerged from two advancing, but filled candles on weak volumes & the session closed as a doji.

This doji favored the lower end of the day’s range though, indicating that there would be difficult times heading into the end of the week.

Sure enough, Wednesday opened on a gap down, tested above the $450/share level, but was promptly sent lower & broke down below $440/share, which is now in play, and closed the day at $444.18/share, in-line with the 10 day moving average, on the week’s highest volume session.

Bearish confirmation arrived further on Thursday, when QQQ opened in the middle of Wednesday’s range, proceeded to break down through the 10 DMA’s support, before managing to close just above it.

Much like SPY, QQQ’s chart needs a major uplift in advancing volume before it will be able to build a sustainable base to spring up from.

In reality, the next week or two should have all eyes on the 10 day moving average, watching price oscillate around it in reaction to the earnings reports that we get & the Fed speakers this week.

The $402.39/share mark is like SPY’s low water mark of $481.80/share, being the lowest 1 year chart support level & occurring on the same day.

In the event of a downside move of greater than- 1.82%, QQQ enters Seller territory & will have the momentum to carry it lower, where it will encounter a similar situation to SPY on the route to the low support level once it hits the $411.99/share level & we watch the high Buyer ratios potentially dilute.

The $400-403.99/share level is also going to be a questionable range, as there is limited Seller pressure at all over the past ~2 years.

The chart below will help guide through volatility in QQQ & retests of support/resistance levels in the near-term.

QQQ has support at the $443.27 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.27:1), $440.36 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.27:1), $421.55 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.5:1) & $410.56/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 4:1) price levels, with resistance at the $446.18 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 3:1), $457.78 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.94:1), $465.74 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2:1) & $467.83/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2:1) price levels.

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF declined -2.81%, as small cap names had the worst week of the major four indexes.

Their RSI is trending towards the neutral 50 mark after a brief flat period, while their MACD is dolphining & looking ready to cross back bearishly through the signal line by mid-week.

Volumes were +27.89% above the prior year’s average (38,262,500 vs. 29,917,778), indicating that small cap names are out of favor & that markets in general are beginning to look ready for further cooling down across the board.

IWM’s chart reads similar to SPY & QQQ’s, but duller & more committed to straddling the 10 DMA than the prior two indexes, in terms of last week’s performance.

Monday opened on a squeeze gap up in-line with the 10 DMA, before testing near to the $182.50/share level to the downside & closing above it, but lower than its open, setting the stage for a weak week.

The next day showed the oxygen was out of the room when a spinning top/shooting star emerged as Tuesday’s candle that opened lower, tested to $189/05, before settling at $186.76, but spreading the notion of uncertainty & fear being abound.

Sure enough, Wednesday opened lower, could not break above Tuesday’s close, but managed to break below the 10 DMA after the test & flirt with the $182.50/share mark before closing in-line with the 10 DMA’s support on the second highest volume of the week.

Thursday had the highest volume heading into the weekend on a +0.82% advancing day, but was capped out at $187.43/share at the day’s high, further indicating that there will likely not be many folks seeking refuge in small cap names anytime soon.

Heading into this week the upside case is the same as for SPY & QQQ; no major, consistent advancing volume inflows, no floor to build gains from.

Most likely case is to watch IWM flutter & oscillate nearby the 10 DMA, with all eyes on the $171.73/share level to see if & when that breaks down.

What’s unique here for IWM is that per the table below, once $173.99/share is broken down through, it passes through an “Even” Buyers:Sellers zone before one last attempt at support & then entertains breaking down below the lowest support level on a two year chart, based on Seller zones walking it down.

While Buyers may come out in droves to prevent this from happening, this event seems like something that would happen that would be more indicative of a broader market selloff/crash, so the way down may not be where market participants decide to find their footing on a two year chart support level.

Using the table below & our Volume Sentiment table from SPY’s link in the “Volume Sentiment” text above will help add guidance to navigating this scenario.

IWM has support at the $183.61 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.5:1), $171.73 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.84:1), $164.61 (2 Year Chart, Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.4:0*) & $158.85/share (Lowest Support On 2 Year Chart, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels, with resistance at the $189.17 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.32:1), $195.01 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.47:1), $195.72 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.47:1) & $196.56/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2:1) price levels.

DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF lost -2.62% last week, as the blue chip index has continued to signal that market participants are becoming heavily risk averse, after so much time being the “outperforming outlier” of the majors.

Their RSI is trending towards the oversold level, in a shift from the prior three indexes, while their MACD has just completed a dolphin, plunging back below the signal line after a brief jump above it for air.

Volumes were -6.39% lower than the previous year’s average level (3,055,000 vs. 3,263,452), which is expected, given how many DIA components are staples in people’s long-term portfolios.

Their week was far more risk off compared to the aforementioned three majors, in that Monday gapped up & closed lower with a clear “risk off” signal from its lower shadow, followed by a “shooting star” (bearish) of sorts candle & a breakdown of the 10 DMA’s support in the wake of Wednesday’s gap down session that closed in line with it.

Thursday the volume was cranked compared to the other days, and people were jumping out of the pool, resulting in a gap down open high wave candle that closed as a doji, implying that there may be a lot more downside movement in the near-term for all indexes, given the resilience of DIA.

Much like the indexes above, DIA should straddle/oscillate around its 10 day moving average moving into this week, barring any major earnings issues or anything bad from Fed speakers.

Upside isn’t really a talking point until it gets volume support on advancing sessions at this time, even for the most resilient index.

Their downside looks problematic, ad while this is a lot of support with Buyer Dominated volume, current sentiment suggests that if we retest the support levels listed below that we’re looking at a larger systemic issue, which would compound the losses for DIA given the resilience noted prior that it’s experience vs. other indexes.

Like the other indexes though, the $366.16/share support level fell on the same day as their most recent support level, which also happens to be the lowest on their chart, and will be a focal point on their chart in the coming weeks.

DIA has support at the $380.39 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.05:1), $374.90 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.06:1), $369.95 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.6:1) & $366.14/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.92:1) price levels, with resistance at the $393.38 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.33:1), $393.84 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.33:1), $394.92 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.33:1) & $396.40/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.75:1) price levels.

The Week Ahead

The week begins with U.S. Leading Economic Indicators on 10 am on Monday.

Monday morning’s earnings calls include Bank of Hawaii & Comerica, before AZZ, BOK Financial, Cadence Bank, Calix Networks, Cathay Bancorp, Equity Lifestyle Properties, Hexcel, Medpace, W.R. Berkley, Western Alliance Bancorp, Western Alliance Bancorp & Zions Bancorp report after the closing bell.

Tuesday morning Fed President Harker speaks at 9:30 am.

3M, Danaher, Elevance Health, Equifax, Forestar, GE Aerospace, Genuine Parts, Herc Holdings, Hope Bancorp, Invesco, Iridium Communications, Kimberly-Clark, Lockheed Martin, Moody’s, MSCI, Northern Trust, Northrop Grumman, Old National Bancorp, Pentair, PulteGroup, Quest Diagnostics, RTX, Synchrony Financial, United Community Banks, Valmont Industries & Verizon Communications all report earnings before Tuesday’s opening bell, followed by Tesla, Agree Realty, Baker Hughes, Capital One, Chubb, East West Bancorp, Enphase Energy, EQT Corp., Intuitive Surgical, Manhattan Associates, National Bank, Packaging Corp. of America, Pathward Financial, Pegasystems, PennyMac, Range Resources, Renasant, SAP SE, Steel Dynamics, Trustmark, Veritex Holdings & Zurn Elkay Water Solutions.

Fed President Goolsbee speaks on Wednesday at 9 am, before Fed Presidents Musalem & Waller speak at 9:30 am, S&P Flash U.S. Services PMI & S&P Flash U.S. Manufacturing PMI data comes out at 9:45 am, New Homes sales data is released at 10 am, the Fed Beige Book comes out at 2 pm & at 7:40 pm Fed President Bostic speaks.

Wednesday morning begins with earnings calls from Amphenol, AT&T, Avery Dennison, Boeing, Boston Scientific, Check Point Software, CME Group, First Hawaiian, GATX, GE Vernova, General Dynamics, Healthcare Services Group, Lennox International, Lithia Motors, M/I Homes, Masco, Mr. Cooper Group, New Oriental Education & Technology, NextEra Energy, Norfolk Southern, OFG Bancorp, Old Dominion, Otis Worldwide, Philip Morris International, Popular, PROG Holdings, Prosperity Bancshares, Ryder System, Stifel Financial, Taylor Morrison Home, TE Connectivity, Teledyne Tech, Thermo Fisher, Travel + Leisure Co, Vertiv, Virtu Financial, Wabtec & Watsco, followed by Chipotle Mexican Grill, Alaska Air, ASGN Inc, Banc of California, Bank of N.T. Butterfield & Son, CACI International, Carlisle Companies, Century Communities, Chemed, Churchill Downs, Community Health, Core Labs, Discover Financial Services, EastGroup, Edwards Lifesciences, Element Solutions, Essential Properties Realty Trust, First American Financial, FirstEnergy, Goosehead Insurance, Graco, International Business Machines, IMAX, Impinj, Kaiser Aluminum, Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings, Lam Research, Las Vegas Sands, Matador Resources, MaxLinear, Meritage Homes, Moelis, Molina Healthcare, Newmont Corp, O’Reilly Automotive, Oceaneering International, Penumbra, Plexus, QuantumScape, Raymond James, Reliance, RenaissanceRe, ResMed, ResMed, Robert Half, Rollins, SEI Investments, Selective Insurance, ServiceNow, Stewart Info, Texas Instruments, Tyler Technologies, United Rentals, Viking Therapeutics, Western Union & Whirlpool after the session’s close.

Thursday begins with Initial Jobless Claims, Durable-Goods Orders & Core Durable Orders (business investment) at 8:30 am.

ADT, Allegion, AllianceBernstein, American Airlines, Ameriprise Financial, Apogee Enterprises, Ardagh Metal Packaging, Atlantic Union Bankshares, Balchem, Berkshire Hills Bancorp, Bread Financial, Bristol Myers Squibb, Brunswick, Carpenter Technology, CBIZ, CBRE Group, CenterPoint Energy, CMS Energy, CNX Resources, Curbline Properties, Darling Ingredients, Dover, Dow, Euronet, First Bancorp, First Merchants, FirstCash, Fiserv, Freeport-McMoRan, FTI Consulting, Gentherm, Group 1 Auto, Hasbro, Helen of Troy, Integer Holdings, Interpublic, Keurig Dr Pepper, L3Harris, Ladder Capital, LKQ, MarineMax, Merck, Mobileye Global, NASDAQ, NovoCure, Old Republic, Pacific Premier, PepsiCo, PG&E, Pool, PROCEPT BioRobotics, Procter & Gamble, RPC, Sanofi, Sonic Automotive, Southwest Air, STMicroelectronics, Strategic Education, TechnipFMC, Textron, Tractor Supply, TransUnion, TRI Pointe Homes, Union Pacific, Valero Energy, Valley National, Visteon, Webster Financial, West Pharmaceutical Services, Willis Towers Watson, WNS & Xcel Energy all report earnings before Thursday’s opening bell, before Alphabet, AppFolio, Associated Banc-Corp, Boston Beer, Boyd Gaming, Columbia Banking, Coursera, Customers Bancorp, Digital Realty Trust, Eastman Chemical, Encompass Health, Federated Hermes, First Financial Bancorp, Gaming and Leisure Properties, Gilead Sciences, Glacier Bancorp, Hartford Financial, Healthpeak Properties, Intel, Kinsale Capital, Knowles, McGrath RentCorp, Merit Medical, Minerals Technologies, Phillips Edison, Principal Financial Group, Provident Financial Services, Republic Services, Sallie Mae, Seacoast Banking, Skechers USA, SkyWest, South State, SPS Commerce, SS&C Techs, T-Mobile US, VeriSign, Weyerhaeuser & WSFS Financial report after the closing bell.

Consumer Sentiment (final) is released at 10 am Friday.

AbbVie, Aon, AutoNation, Avantor, Centene, Charter Communications, Colgate-Palmolive, Flagstar Financial, Gentex, HCA, Hilltop Holdings, Lazard, LyondellBasell, Moog, Phillips 66, PHINIA, Portland General Electric, Saia, Sensient, SLB, Stellar Bank & TriNet Group are all scheduled to report earnings on Friday Morning.

See you back here next week!

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM OR DIA AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF gained +5.67% last week, while the VIX closed the week out at 37.56, indicating an implied one day move of +/-2.37% & an implied one month move of +/-10.86%.

Their RSI is trending towards the neutral 50 level, sitting currently at 44.42, while their MACD is bearish, but approaching the signal line & the histogram is waning.

This isn’t indicative of a bullish crossover with strength on the horizon though, especially given that SPY’s 50 day moving average is poised to bearishly break through their 200 DMA forming a death cross by Wednesday.

Volumes were +230.5% higher than the previous year’s average (184,900,000 vs. 55,944,960), which is also cause for concern, as while Wednesday’s squeeze play resulted in a great deal of advancing volume, there’s still a significant amount of outflows for SPY & the other index ETFs.

Monday opened on a gap down & went as low as $481.80/share during the session, before rallying back to break above the $520/share level temporarily & close higher on the day at $504.38/share, which was higher than it opened.

Volumes that day were pronounced, which makes sense given the range that the day covered & the profit taking/pumping for later in the week that was taking place.

Tuesday SPY opened on a gap up & again made a run at the $525/share level, but was unable to find the footing & wound up closing for a decline on the session

Wednesday saw a major spike in both price & advancing volume for SPY, as a gap down open recovered to rally back +10.5% on the day, due to a whipsaw caused by tariff talk & the March FOMC minutes.

While the day’s volume was certainly high, it is not enough to constitute the consistent high volume SPY needs to form a base & while it can be enjoyed, it is not a signal that all has recovered & to be bullish.

The bullish engulfing candle did manage to break above & close above the 10 day moving average’s support, which hadn’t happened in weeks.

Along came a bearish harami pattern with Thursday’s session though, where elevated volumes led to a decline.

Thursday’s lower end of the day’s range is something to be concerned about, as it temporarily dipped below the $510/share level before recovering to close at $524.58/share, indicating that there is still a lot of bearish sentiment in the market.

Mixed signals continued into the weekend, as Friday’s session closed with a +1.78% gain, just a hair above the 10 day moving average’s support, but on less than half of the volume that Wednesday’s advancing session had, so there is no consistent elevated bullish volume sentiment, despite two bullish days.

Heading into this week the bullish case stays the same as it has over the past month now, without substantial, consistent higher advancing volumes there is unlikely to be a base formed where SPY can take off from to rally higher.

Should we see higher levels of consistent participation in the market on advancing days then we can begin to look at resistance levels being tested & broken, but for now we’re not set up for that yet.

What is more likely to happen is there will be some consolidation & oscillation around the 10 DMA, until the death cross of the 50 & 200 DMAs takes place, at which point we see some support levels tested.

The consolidation would likely remain within the wide range of Wednesday’s candle (10.5% is a lot of wiggle room, granted), while any downside moves will be interesting, as Buyers have historically liked the price level that SPY is in now & its next two support levels, but if we break down through those we enter Seller territory again, as shown below.

SPY has support at the $533.49 ( 10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.67:1), $532.41 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.67:1), $505.48 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.2:1) & $487.56/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.1:1) price levels, with resistance at the $534.38 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.67:1), $548.03 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.44:1), $548.62 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.44:1) & $549.67/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.44:1) price levels.

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF advanced +7.51%, as the tech-heavy index was the favorite among the major four for the week.

Their RSI is climbing towards the neutral 50 mark, while the MACD looks primed to cross the signal line bullishly by Tuesday, but given their volume situation it may be more of a temporary dolphin jump for air than an actual bullish move.

Volumes were +305.92% above the prior year’s average level (113,310,000 vs. 37,039,286), which like SPY’s has a lot of questions to be asked about it, particularly as they both have seen similar performance, but with different volume trends.

QQQ’s past week also closely resembled SPY’s across the board, leading off on Monday with a gap down that tested as low as $402.39/share where it found support to bounce from & test higher to above the $440/share level & to close higher than it opened on the day at $423.69/share.

This occurred on the week’s highest volume, which is important as the day covered a wide range of prices, so it shows market participants were highly engaged & that the day wasn’t just fluff tape.

Tuesday opened on a gap up, tested higher to about Monday’s high & it all went south from there, quickly, leading to declines on the week’s second lowest volume, but still still ~2x the prior year’s average, indicating that there was a lot of risk-off sentiment to bag up Monday’s gains.

Wednesday mirrored SPY’s performance to a degree, where the second highest volume session of the week broke above the short-term trend line to close above $465/share.

What’s troubling about it though is that Thursday’s session produced a bearish harami pattern with a long lower shadow as well that showed support really wasn’t until the $432.63/share level & that the short-term trend line will likely not hold up.

Friday brought along a bullish engulfing candle, but on volume so weak that it was hardly a drop in the bucket compared to the previous four days (it was ~50% of the second lowest session’s volume).

Like SPY, QQQ’s upside story lies solely in what happens when they get some sustainable higher volume, which doesn’t look like it’s going to happen anytime soon still, particularly with their 50 & 200 DMA’s set to death cross by Tuesday.

While some might say Monday was a major volume spike that could signal a reversal, there is not yet enough confirmation, and the rest of their chart & data don’t suggest that confirmations coming just yet.

Their death cross-over is coming between today & tomorrow, which will apply downward pressure on QQQ, along with potential bad news coming from earnings reports (Tuesday features a handful of names that while not in the NASDAQ, may cause problems wider-spread).

It’s likely we see QQQ consolidate within the confines of Wednesday’s candle’s range while oscillating around the 10 DMA, like we’ve been expecting most weeks over the past month+.

Downside breakdowns will get interesting, particularly when you reference the support level Buyer:Seller sentiment in the table & paragraph below.

This doesn’t look like we’re near out of the woods just yet, and the $402.39/share level has now become a new area of focus should it be tested, as its the lowest 1 year support level, a freshly established level & volume has really turned up since it was tested, indicating that there’s fish biting around there.

Whether we actually sink that far is still TBD, but again, when the fish are biting that aggressively, its usually a sign that that’s going to be a place to keep your eyes on.

It’s also worth referencing the Volume Sentiment table for QQQ, as well as SPY, IWM & DIA when looking at these volume levels for historical context.

QQQ has support at the $449.74 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.17:1), $446.18 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 3:1), $440.36 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.27:1) & $421.55/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.5:1) price levels, with resistance at the $457.78 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.94:1), $465.74 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2:1), $467.83 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2:1) & $473.41/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.19:1) price levels.

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF climbed +1.75%, as market participants squeezed into the small cap index heavily on Wednesday, setting the stage for weekly gains.

Their RSI is chopping back towards the neutral 50 mark, sitting currently at 38.6, while their MACD is flat.

While their MACd histogram is waning, they’ve got a lot of trouble under the hood given the nature of how small cap names will move in relation to their larger peers & the volume trends noted above.

Volumes were +162.43% above the prior year’s level (78,654,000 vs. 29,971,786), which is an interesting thing to note as IWM & DIA have relatively moved decoupled from SPY & QQQ who move in similar fashions to one another, but the lack of an idea as to where the market is going right now seems to have impacted everyone from the small caps to the blue chips.

Monday the week began on uncertain, but negative terms, as a gap down open was able to muster up a higher close, but the upper shadow of the day’s candle broke above the $190/share level on the second highest volume of the week.

Tuesday opened on a gap higher, but quickly showed that there was a bit our sour sentiment out & prices declined rapidly to show appetite below the $172.50/share level, but closed above it.

Wednesday followed SPY & QQQ’s lead, seeing a major influx of volume that accounted for the week’s highest level, but IWM was rejected by their 10 DMA’s resistance & closed below it, a major bearish signal.

Thursday’s menu included bearish harami candles with long lower shadows indicating that there was still a bit of downside appetite that needed to be examined.

Friday continued this with a gap down open that retraced most of Thursday’s lower range, but ultimately there was a small rally into the weekend hat resulted in a +1.46% advance for the day.

It should be noted though that this came on very weak volume, indicating that there was more of a pump/head-fake going into the weekend vs. some actual bullish sentiment.

IWM suffers from the same bullish case as the two aforementioned index ETFs, there’s no volume for a base case to be built upon & there’s a lot of sentiment troubles they’ll be faced with in the near-term as well.

In the meantime expect a similar consolidation as to what’s described above as we see what guidance changes from earnings calls change broader market sentiment.

One area of caution with IWM; there is only one support price level from their one year chart & the other 3 of the top 4 are from the two year chart.

While that isn’t a big deal given the data on sentiment below covers all of these areas, it is something to consider in the near-term, as many of these levels could have fallen out of favor over time & it should be approached with caution heading into the next few weeks.

IWM has support at the $177.61 (2 Year Chart, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.8:1), $171.73 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.84:1), $164.61 (2 Year Chart, Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.4:0*) & $158.85/share (2 Year Chart, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels, with resistance at the $188.26 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.32:1), $189.17 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.32:1), $195.01 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.47:1) & $195.56/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.47:1) price levels.

DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF added only +4.88% last week, as the blue chip index was the second least favored of the major four index ETFs.

Their RSI is at 44.86 trending higher towards the neutral 50 mark, while their MACD is trending towards the signal line with its histogram waning,

Volumes were +144.91% above the prior year’s average level (8,054,000 vs. 3,288,492), which like the aforementioned examples isn’t exactly a vote of confidence.

DIA’s week was highly similar to the three above examples & as a result it’s really not worth diving into deeply, given the blue chip index has been the most resilient of the bunch over the past few years.

The same issue apply, we can’t form a base to spring upward from without an increase in advancing volume, and last week was still most declining volume.

DIA has the safest chart from a support perspective, but when all’s breaking down it’s not necessarily something to be bragging about…

My eyes are peeled for the $366.32 support level, it’s where over the past ~4-5 years Buyers have stepped in strongly, but it’s the most recent support level & coincidentally the lowest on their one year chart… not inspiring in the least & as such it’s worth watching this week for a test & a potential breakdown, as if it breaks down it’s going to be a harbinger of more big issues to come.

DIA has support at the $400.97 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.22:1), $396.59 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.75:1), $395.11 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.33:1) & $393.57/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.33:1) price levels, with resistance at the $406.47 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.17:1), $407.35 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.17:1), $413.42 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 3.75:1) & $416.93/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.63:1) price levels.

The Week Ahead

Monday the week kicks off with Fed President Harker speaking at 6 on & Fed President Bostic speaking at 7:40 pm.

Goldman Sachs & M&T Bank report earnings on Monday morning before the session opens, followed by Applied Digital, FB Financial & Pinnacle Financial after the closing bell.

Import Price Index, Import Price minus Fuel & Empire State Manufacturing Survey data are all due for release on Tuesday morning at 8:30 am.

Tuesday morning’s earnings calls feature Johnson & Johnson, Albertson’s, Bank of America, Citigroup, Ericsson & PNC, before Fulton Financial, Hancock Whitney, Interactive Brokers, J.B. Hunt Transport & United Airlines after the session’s close.

Wednesday begins with U.S. Retail Sales & Retail Sales minus Autos at 8:30 am, followed by Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization data at 9:15 am, Business Inventories & Home Builder Confidence Index data at 10 am & Fed President Hammack speaking at 12 pm.

Abbott Labs, ASML, Autoliv, Citizens Financial Group, First Horizon, Prologis, Travelers & U.S. Bancorp all report earnings before Wednesday morning’s session, before Alcoa, Bank OZK, CSX, F.N.B., First Industrial Realty, Home Bancshares, Liberty Energy, Rexford Industrial Realty, Simmons First National, SL Green Realty, Synovus & Triumph Financial report after the closing bell.

Initial Jobless Claims, Housing Starts, Building Permits & Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey data are all released Thursday at 8:30 am.

Thursday morning’s earnings calls kick off with UnitedHealth Group, Ally Financial, American Express, Badger Meter, Charles Schwab, D.R. Horton, Fifth Third, Huntington Banc, Insteel Industries, KeyCorp, Manpower, Regions Financial, Snap-On, State Street, Texas Capital & Truist.

Friday begins with Fed President Daly speaking at 8 am & there are no noteworthy earnings reports scheduled.

See you back here next week!

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM OR DIA AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF closed the week down -9.07% while the VIX closed the week out at 45.31, indicating an implied one day move of +/-2.86% & an implied one month move of +/-13.1%.

Their RSI dropped into oversold territory & is currently at 23.43, while their MACD is deeply bearish, despite taking until Thursday to cross over.

Volumes were +112.07% above the prior year’s average (113,982,000 vs. 53,746,865), which shouldn’t be a surprise that it’s problematic given how Thursday & Friday’s declining volume eclipse most of the previous years’ levels.

Monday the week kicked off with a gap down open below the $550/share level, with a brief test lower towards $545, before the squeeze came along & the week’s third highest volume led to an advance that tested above the $560/share level, but managed to close at $559.39/share for the day.

Tuesday SPY opened lower, tested beneath the $555/share level, but managed to softly creep higher to close at $560.97 on the week’s lowest volume, a longer lower shadow than higher shadow & fear clearly setting in among market participants.

Wednesday opened lower at $555.05/share, briefly dipped below the $550/share level, before on the week’s second weakest volume climbing up to briefly break above the 10 day moving average’s resistance & the $565/share price level, & settling for the day in-line with the 10 DMA at $564.52/share.

While this may have been seen by some as a bullish head-fake, anyone who’s been following out notes over the past month know that the 10 DMA was going to be respected, if not oscillated around (last week’s note here).

Trouble set in on Thursday, when a gap down open to $536.70/share lead to a brief advance to a high of $547.97/share, before being pummeled down to $536.70/share at the close on the week’s second highest volume; setting the stage for a heavily “risk off into the weekend” Friday.

Friday didn’t disappoint for those who were watching the volume sentiment analyses posts, as a gap down open on the highest level of volume in the past 2+ years led to a large sell off heading into the weekend .

What’s more important than Friday’s eclipsing volume & -5.85% decline for the day is this week’s data set up.

Wednesday we get a hint into what March’s FOMC discussions looked like when the meeting minutes are released in the afternoon, which may lead to possible consolidation/a light, volume-less pump for the beginning of the week (unlikely, but possible), as market participants hope for near-term profits before more market catalyst news.

This is not the most likely, nor most important thing to focus on, but worth having in mind.

Thursday we get CPI data & Friday PPI data, which is more likely to be when we see meaningful market movements.

Oscillators such as RSI & MACD are currently both stretched bearishly to a point that they may continue downward (which will on Monday/Tuesday be more contingent on international markets or news we haven’t seen yet as of Sunday evening), but a breather on declines as mentioned above could be in the mix on two days of mostly unimportant earnings & limited market data being released.

But Wednesday will be a time to begin paying attention, as whatever is released in the minutes notes will be directly applicable to Thursday/Friday’s data & be something to focus on for formulating a near-to-mid-term hypothesis about where SPY goes next.

Thus far, volume sentiment tables like the one below have served good use, and look to continue to be reliable in the coming weeks.

In the coming week, we still are at the base case that any upward movement without substantial volumes behind it is nothing to think much of until there has been multiple sessions with above average advancing volume that establish an actual base.

Until then, treat all upside moves (particularly today, Tuesday 4/8’s) with a skeptical brow furrowed, as there will be short-term squeezes meant to bait market participants back into the pool for other folks to unload their shares on.

It is most likely that we see oscillations around the 10 DMA heading into mid-week, before the FOMC minutes & CPI/PPI nudge SPY in one direction or another heading into the latter half of the week.

Given how far off the 10 DMA is currently from Friday’s closing price, it is not unreasonable to expect to see prices squeeze up to attempt to fill the window created by Friday’s gap down open, but otherwise consolidation within the range of Friday’s large candle body will likely play out to be par for the course.

Given that the one year support levels are all almost exhausted, it is time to begin looking at the table below in relation to SPY’s 2 year support levels, as the volume sentiments that those levels have traded at are still relevant to the table data below & in the link to the broader volume sentiment analysis article.

SPY has support at the $505.48 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.2:1), $487.65 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.18:1), $448.85 (2 Year Chart, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.8:0*) & $443.22/share (2 Year Chart, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 4.45:1) price levels, with resistance at the $532.41 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.67:1), $534.38 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.67:1), $548.03 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.44:1) & $549.67/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.44:1) price levels.

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF declined -9.87%, as the tech heavy index took the biggest beating of the major four in this week’s carnage.

Their RSI is in oversold territory at 24.34, while heir MACD also crossed over bearishly on Thursday & is deeply bearish.

Volumes were +85.52% above the prior year’s average level (66,320,000 vs. 35,748,095), which should be setting off warning bells among even the most passive of market participants, as something a lot of folks have omitted from discussion recently is that for all of the passive retail investor moves out of tech, the ETF exposure to them will have to follow suit & sell.

While a handful of folks out there have been addressing this, it’s still not being discussed as much as you’d think, given the prominence of ETFs & the exposure they are able to give anyone to instruments that the average investor shouldn’t be playing with.

There’s also likely in the event of a major declining move going to be an interesting discussion in the events of bailouts, as should an ETF holding systemically important derivatives somehow earns being bought out, rather than allowed to fail, despite holding unique levered contracts on tech companies (based on ETF landscape, but not targeting tech specifically, just more likely to hit the sector than others based on how many ETFs there are out there/their focuses).

Monday the week began on a note of bearish uncertainty, when the session opened on a gap down at the third highest volume of the week, broke below the $460/share level, before rebounding & closing higher than the open, but two pennies shy of Friday’s close.

Tuesday the shaky upward movement continued on the week’s lowest volume, followed by a bullish engulfing candle from Wednesday’s session.

Wednesday had some bearish sentiment aside from the second lowest volume of the week too though, as the day’s high tested the resistance of the 10 DMA & the short-term trend line said no, which set the stage for the rest of the week.

Thursday opened on a gap down, temporarily ripped above the $460/share level, before declining lower on the second highest volume of the week to close at $450.66/share, setting the stage for a very bearish Friday.

Friday the risk off sentiment carried on, opening on a gap down, briefly testing higher, before declining-6.21%, and the declining volume bar is taller than the day’s candle, indicating a severe loss of confidence in QQQ.

Much like SPY, there’s going to need to be a significant improvement in sentiment before there is any chance of a reversal for QQQ, so we’re not going to get into the bullish case.

The bearish case will also be intriguing, as like SPY, QQQ is now moving into the 2 year chart in terms of support levels.

Their consolidation case will likely remain within the body of Friday’s candle until the 10 DMA catches up below, after which it will begin to oscillate around that support/resistance level while we await new news or technical indicators changing.

The table below & a two year support/resistance level chart will be of value in the coming week while QQQ gets itself sorted out.

QQQ has support at the $421.55 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.5:1), $410.56 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 4:1), $383.59 (2 Year Chart, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.63:1) & $376.52/share (2 Year Chart, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels, with resistance at the $440.36 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.27:1), $446.18 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2:1), $465.74 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2:1) & $473.41/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.19:1) price levels.

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF fell -9.61% last week, as small cap names were the second most dumped during the massive sell off.

Their RSI oversold at is 24.03, while their MACD crossed over bearishly on Thursday.

Volumes were +70.77% above the prior year’s average (49,612,000 vs. 29,052,579), mostly due to Thursday & Friday’s declining sessions that eclipsed most of the past year.

The week started off on a sour note for IWM, as a gap down open on Monday dipped below the $197.50/share level before powering higher, but volume was so light that there was not much bullish sentiment behind the move up to close higher than the session’s open.

Tuesday saw the week’s weakest volume for IWM, on a high wave spinning top candle, which left market participants with a taste of bearish uncertainty.

Wednesday also saw weak volume compared to the end of the week, but a bearish engulfing candle opened lower & closed above Tuesday’s close, but was unable to break above the 10 day moving average’s resistance.

From here it all literally tumbled downhill.

Thursday opened on a gap down, attempted to climb higher, but the $195/share level is where it met its match & it slid to <$190/share by the close on the week’s second highest volume.

Friday showed the same sentiment, where even higher volumes lead to a -4.46% decline heading into the weekend, and the downside $177.50/share level was temporarily broken.

As noted in SPY & QQQ above, IWM has no base case at the moment for advancing, so until there is a sustainable level of higher volumes consistently attained it’s not worth looking into from a long-term perspective.

They’ve exhausted all of their support on the one year chart, so the table data below is best applied to their 2 year charts for seeing how they may ease their way into further declines (or not).

IWM has support at the $181.12 (2 Year Chart, Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.35:1), $164.61 (2 Year Chart, Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.4:0*), $158.85 (2 Year Chart, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $157.17/share (3 Year Chart, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels, with resistance at the $189.17 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.32:1), $195.01 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.47:1), $195.72 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.47:1) & $196.56/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2:1) price levels.

DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF fared the best of the majors, only losing -7.8% for the week as the blue chip index was still the favorite option among market participants.

Their RSI is in oversold territory at 23.95, while their MACD is bearish since Thursday.

Volumes were +48.06% above the prior year’s average (4,756,000 vs. 3,212,262), as even the blue chip index is beginning to see the lights turn on & folks head home.

Rather than dive into the day-over-day analysis, in DIA’s case here it is really all boiling down to Thursday & Friday’s outflow volume.

While the blue chip names have remained a favorite among market participants vs. their peers, this too has begun to unwind & we’re now looking at their 2 year chart to find support levels.

Their relatively less intense declines by both price & volume are troubling here, as if the markets actually get really spooked on Wednesday/heading into the weekend the tidal wave that DIA outflows causes across other names will be noteworthy & something to watch.

In the meantime, this is something to consider, as any weakness in DIA in the coming week(s) will send shock waves across the other major indexes & cause larger issues across the board, particularly given that bank earnings kick off on Friday in addition to the other previously mentioned potential catalysts.

A two year chart for DIA & the table below are worth examining heading into the rest of the week.

DIA has support at the $380.57 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.05:1), $375.09 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.06:1), $370.13 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.6:1) & $346.30/share (2 Year Chart, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 23:1) price levels, with resistance at the $393.57 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.33:1), $395.11 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.33:1), $396.59 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.75:1) & $406.47/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.17:1) price levels.

The Week Ahead

Monday the week begins with Consumer Credit data at 3 pm.

Dave & Busters, Greenbrier & Levi Strauss all report earnings after Monday’s closing bell.

NFIB Optimism Index data comes out Tuesday at 6 am.

Tuesday morning begins with earnings from WD-40, RPM & Tilray, followed by Cal-Maine Foods after the session’s close.

Wednesday brings us Wholesale Inventories data at 10 am, followed by the Minutes of March’s FOMC Meeting at 2 pm.

Delta Airlines, Neogen & Simply Good Foods report earnings before Wednesday’s opening bell, before Constellation Brands & PriceSmart report after the session’s close.

Initial Jobless Claims, Consumer Price Index, CPI Year-over-Year, Core CPI & Core CPI Year-over-Year data are released Thursday at 8:30 am, before Fed President Goolsbee speaks at 12 pm & Monthly U.S. Federal Budget data gets released at 2 pm.

Thursday morning’s earnings calls include CarMax & Lovesac, with no noteworthy reports after the closing bell.

Friday the week winds down with Producer Price Index, Core PPI, PPI Year-over-Year & Core PPI Year-over-Year data at 8:30 am, followed by Consumer Sentiment (prelim) at 10 am & Fed President Williams speaking at 11 am.

JP Morgan Chase, Blackrock, BNY Mellon, Fastenal, Morgan Stanley & Wells Fargo all report earnings before Friday mornings opening bell.

See you back here next week!

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM OR DIA AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***

It’s been about a month & a half since our last check in on Volume Sentiment Analysis on 2/19/2025, in an environment of heightened volatility, which was easier to navigate with the last note.

Last night the VIX closed at 21.77, indicating an implied one day move of +/-1.37% & an implied one month move of +/-6.29% for the S&P 500.

Volumes have slowly begun creeping back to their previous year’s normal levels Y-o-Y over the past few weeks, after a year of subpar volume vs. the prior year’s previous year’s average volume level, but there is still a long way to go considering how many months of weak participation we saw in 2024.

Using last week’s note as a benchmark Y-o-Y SPY prior year’s average volume is -32.31% compared to one year ago (52,680,680 vs. 77,829,780), QQQ’s is -28.53% Y-o-Y (35,199,440 vs. 49,253,412), IWM’s is -16.41% Y-o-Y (28,651,440 vs. 34,276,900) & DIA’s is -6.36% Y-o-Y (3,188,480 vs. 3,405,069) (prior year’s numbers found here).

Looking at their charts though these levels are becoming more & more elevated as 2025 wears on, which is a trend unlikely to stop anytime soon.

Manufacturing activity contracted M-o-M & investors are eagerly awaiting today’s tariff news in the coming hours to see which direction the markets will react in.

In these volatile times it is imperative to have an understanding of how volume is impacting market participants & their decisions.

With this in mind, it is important to understand how each index ETF has performed in recent history, as it lends clues into the strength/weakness of each index’s support/resistance levels.

This can be valuable when assessing risk in the event of retests of any of these levels.

Each section below contains a view of each index ETF’s chart (for a technical breakdown of each ETF’s chart please see this past weekend’s market review note), as well as a list of their current one year support & resistance levels with the volume sentiment noted beneath it on the table.

There is an additional table beneath this table with each price level’s sentiment, as well as a typed text version below that is able to be copied & pasted.

Note that “NULL, 0:0*” values denote areas that each name has traded at but with limited volume data to work with from a comparison standpoint in terms of creating a ratio of buyers:sellers (or vice versa) or is the outlier above the highest/lowest level with price data.

Also, prices that do have a ratio of Buyers:Sellers (Sellers:Buyers) where the denominator is 0 are denoted with an asterisk “*” as well.

In the written lists of the price levels & volume sentiments the price levels that contain support & resistance levels are marked in BOLD.

Recall that at price extremes such as the highs that we have recently hit there will tend to be skewed data due to the small sample size & factor that into how you interpret each price level’s reported sentiment.

This is intended to serve as an additional tool, similar to a barometer to use during your due diligence process & is not meant to replace doing your own research & is not financial advice.

Price Level:Volume Sentiment Analysis For SPY, The SPDR S&P 500 ETF

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF‘s volume has begun to reaccelerate in March of 2025, and looks likely that this trend will be continuing for some time.

With volatility likely to continue on as well it is worth reviewing the table below to understand how market participants have behaved at each price level & support/resistance level that they may retest.

It is also worth noting that there are more resistance levels from the past year than support levels now for SPY & that their 50 day moving average is fast approaching their 200 DMA bearishly.

For a more detailed technical analysis of SPY see Sunday’s market review note in the links above.

$610 – Buyers – 0.2:0*, +8.74% From Current Price

$605 – Buyers – 1.5:1, +7.85% From Current Price

$600 – Buyers – 1.38:1, +6.96% From Current Price

$595 – Sellers – 1.35:1, +6.07% From Current Price

$590 – Buyers – 3.42:1, +5.17% From Current Price

$585 – Buyers – 2.15:1, +4.28% From Current Price – 50 Day Moving Average*

$580 – Sellers – 2.11:1, +3.39% From Current Price

$575 – Sellers – 1.33:1, +2.5% From Current Price

$570 – Buyers – 1.54:1, +1.61% From Current Price – 200 Day Moving Average*

$565 – Buyers – 1.4:1, +0.72% From Current Price – 10 Day Moving Average*

$560 – Sellers – 1.45:1, -0.17% From Current Price – Current Price Level*

$555 – Buyers – 1.46:1, -1.06% From Current Price

$550 – Sellers – 1.22:1, -1.96% From Current Price

$545 – Buyers – 1.44:1, -2.85% From Current Price

$540 – Buyers – 1.92:1, -3.74% From Current Price

$535 – Sellers – 1.41:1, -4.63% From Current Price

$530 – Buyers – 2.67:1, -5.52% From Current Price

$525 – Buyers – 1.7:1, -6.41% From Current Price

$520 – Buyers – 4.43:1, -7.3% From Current Price

$515 – Sellers – 1.05:1, -8.19% From Current Price

$510 – Buyers – 1.5:1, -9.09% From Current Price

$505 – Sellers – 1.2:1, -9.98% From Current Price

$500 – Buyers – 1.07:1, -10.87% From Current Price

$496 – Sellers – 1.26:1, -11.58% From Current Price

$492 – Sellers – 1.79:1, -12.29% From Current Price

$488 – Buyers – 1.12:1, -13.01% From Current Price

$484 – Sellers – 1.18:1, -13.72% From Current Price

$480 – Buyers – 5.67:1, -14.43% From Current Price

$476 – Buyers – 2:1, -15.15% From Current Price

$472 – Buyers – 1.75:1, -15.86% From Current Price

$468 – Buyers – 6:1, -16.57% From Current Price

$464 – Sellers – 1.27:1, -17.29% From Current Price

$460 – Sellers – 1.19:1, -18% From Current Price

$456 – Sellers – 0.7:0*, -18.71% From Current Price

$452 – Buyers – 1:0*, -19.43% From Current Price

$448 – Buyers – 1.8:0*, -20.14% From Current Price

$444 – Buyers – 1.53:1, -20.85% From Current Price

$440 – Buyers – 4.46:1, -21.56% From Current Price

$436 – Sellers – 1.03:1, -22.28% From Current Price

$432 – Even – 1:1, -22.99% From Current Price

$428 – Buyers – 1.18:1, -23.7% From Current Price

$424 – Buyers – 1.59:1, -24.42% From Current Price

$420 – Sellers – 1.05:1, -25.13% From Current Price

$416 – Buyers – 1.06:1, -25.84% From Current Price

$412 – Sellers – 1.62:1, -26.56% From Current Price

$408 – Buyers – 3.64:1, -27.27% From Current Price

$404 – Sellers – 1.1:1, -27.98% From Current Price

$400 – Buyers – 1.75:1, -28.69% From Current Price

$396 – Sellers – 1.15:1, -29.41% From Current Price

$392 – Sellers – 1.63:1, -30.12% From Current Price

$388 – Buyers – 3.16:1, -30.83% From Current Price

$384 – Buyers – 1.59:1, -31.55% From Current Price

$380 – buyers – 1.23:1, -32.26% From Current Price

$376 – Sellers – 2.17:1, -32.97% From Current Price

$372 – Sellers – 1.92:1, -33.69% From Current Price

$368 – Sellers – 1.61:1, -34.4% From Current Price

$364 – Sellers – 1.67:1, -35.11% From Current Price

$360 – Sellers – 1.29:1, -35.83% From Current Price

$356 – Sellers – 2.06:1, -36.54% From Current Price

$352 – Buyers – 1.2:1, -37.25% From Current Price

$348 – Sellers – 4.44:1, -37.96% From Current Price

$344 – Sellers – 3.8:0*, -38.68% From Current Price

$340 -NULL – 0:0*, -39.39% From Current Price

Price Level:Volume Sentiment Analysis For QQQ, The Invesco QQQ Trust ETF

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF has also begun to rise from the ashes amid increased volatility in March.

The only way QQQ can find any sustainable legs to climb upon will require a dramatic uptick in advancing volume, which will require a strong macro catalyst based on its current performance.

Like SPY, QQQ is also closer to the bottom of their one year chart than not in terms of resistance:support levels, and with their MACD set to cross bearish by the end of the week & a bearish 50 DMA crossover of the 200 DMA in the coming week or two it will be important to understand their volume trends in order to navigate their price movements.

$540 – NULL – 0:0*, +14.24% From Current Price

$535 – Buyers – 6.67:1, +13.18% From Current Price

$530 – Buyers – 3.33:1, +12.12% From Current Price

$525 – Buyers – 1.35:1, +11.06% From Current Price

$520 – Buyers – 1.53:1, +10.01% From Current Price

$515 – Buyers – 1.5:1, +8.95% From Current Price

$510 – Sellers – 2.79:1, +7.89% From Current Price

$505 – Buyers – 1.25:1, +6.83% From Current Price – 50 Day Moving Average*

$500 – Buyers – 1.65:1, +5.78% From Current Price

$496 – Sellers – 1.4:1, +4.93% From Current Price

$492 – Buyers – 2.61:1, +4.08% From Current Price – 200 Day Moving Average*

$488 – Buyers – 2.16:1, +3.24% From Current Price

$484 – Buyers – 1.17:1, +2.39% From Current Price

$480 – Buyers – 2.3:1, +1.54% From Current Price

$476 – Sellers – 1.2:1, +0.7% From Current Price – 10 Day Moving Average*

$472 – Sellers – 1.19:1, -0.15% From Current Price – Current Price Level*

$468 – Sellers – 1.88:1, -0.99% From Current Price

$464 – Buyers – 2:1, -1.84% From Current Price

$460 – Buyers – 1.78:1, -2.69% From Current Price

$456 – Sellers – 1.94:1, -3.53% From Current Price

$452 – Buyers – 1.36:1, -4.38% From Current Price

$448 – Buyers – 1.17:1, -5.23% From Current Price

$444 – Sellers – 3:1, -6.07% From Current Price

$440 – Buyers – 3.27:1, -6.92% From Current Price

$436 – Buyers – 3.29:1, -7.76% From Current Price

$432 – Sellers – 1.88:1, -8.61% From Current Price

$428 – Buyers – 2.09:1, -9.46% From Current Price

$424 – Sellers – 1.86:1, -10.3% From Current Price

$420 – Sellers – 1.5:1, -11.15% From Current Price

$416 – Buyers – 4.5:1, -11.99% From Current Price

$412 – Sellers – 2.3:0*, -12.84% From Current Price

$408 – Buyers – 4:1, -13.69% From Current Price

$404 – Buyers – 1.91:1, -14.53% From Current Price

$400 – Buyers – 3:0*, -15.38% From Current Price

$396 – Sellers – 2.6:1, -16.23% From Current Price

$392 – Even – 1:1, -17.07% From Current Price

$388 – Buyers – 1.5:0*, -17.92% From Current Price

$384 – Buyers – 1.2:1, -18.76% From Current Price

$380 – Buyers – 2.63:1, -19.61% From Current Price

$376 – NULL – 0:0*, -20.46% From Current Price

$372 – Buyers – 3:1, -21.3% From Current Price

$368 – Buyers – 2.71:1, -22.15% From Current Price

$364 – Buyers – 1.02:1, -23% From Current Price

$360 – Buyers – 1.8:1, -23.84% From Current Price

$356 – Buyers – 1.41:1, -24.69% From Current Price

$352 – Buyers – 3.17:1, -25.53% From Current Price

$348 – Sellers – 3:1, -26.38% From Current Price

$344 – Buyers – 1.64:1, -27.23% From Current Price

$340 -Sellers – 1.09:1, -28.07% From Current Price

$336 – NULL – 0:0*, -28.92% From Current Price

Price Level:Volume Sentiment Analysis For IWM, The iShares Russell 2000 ETF

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF has seen less drastic cuts in average volume over the past year, but it has begun to uptick as well in March of 2025.

It’s of note that the majority of their one-year support levels fall in the $195-01-196.56 zone, before it opens up to the last line of support from the past year, $189.17.

They’ve already recently broken down to the $195.49/share level, which is going to be an area to keep an eye on in the coming week(s), as a breakdown there could spell more trouble for IWM.

$244 – NULL – 0:0*, +22.3% From Current Price

$240 – Buyers – 3.33:1, +20.29% From Current Price

$236 – Buyers – 1.31:1, +18.29% From Current Price

$232 – Buyers – 1.5:1, +16.28% From Current Price

$228 – Buyers – 1.29:1, +14.28% From Current Price

$224 – Sellers – 1.19:1, +12.28% From Current Price

$220 – Buyers – 1.42:1, +10.27% From Current Price

$216 – Buyers – 1.28:1, +8.27% From Current Price – 200 Day Moving Average*

$212 – Sellers – 1.4:1, +6.26% From Current Price – 50 Day Moving Average*

$208 – Buyers – 1.48:1, +4.26% From Current Price

$204 – Buyers – 1.13:1, +2.25% From Current Price – 10 Day Moving Average*

$200 – Buyers – 1.14:1, +0.25% From Current Price

$198 – Sellers – 1.3:1, -0.76% From Current Price – Current Price Level*

$196 – Buyers – 2:1, -1.76% From Current Price

$194 – Buyers – 1.47:1, -2.76% From Current Price

$192 – Buyers – 1.21:1, -3.76% From Current Price

$190 – Sellers – 4.38:1, -4.77% From Current Price

$188 – Buyers – 1.32:1, -5.77% From Current Price

$186 – Buyers – 1.08:1, -6.77% From Current Price

$184 – Buyers – 2.8:1, -7.77% From Current Price

$182 – Buyers – 2.5:1, -8.78% From Current Price

$180 – Sellers – 1.35:1, -9.78% From Current Price

$178 – Sellers – 1.65:1, -10.78% From Current Price

$176 – Buyers – 1.8:1, -11.78% From Current Price

$174 – Buyers – 2.21:1, -12.79% From Current Price

$172 – Even – 1:1, -13.79% From Current Price

$170 – Buyers – 1.84:1, -14.79% From Current Price

$168 – Sellers – 2.07:1, -15.79% From Current Price

$166 – Sellers – 2.5:1, -16.80% From Current Price

$164 – Sellers – 1.4:0*, -17.8% From Current Price

$162 – Sellers – 1.2:1, -18.8% From Current Price

$160 – Buyers – 1.5:1, -19.8% From Current Price

$158 – NULL – 0:0*, -20.81% From Current Price

Price Level:Volume Sentiment Analysis For DIA, The SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF

DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF has seen the most consistent volumes Y-o-Y & has been the most resilient of the major four index ETFs, given that investors are still buying & holding onto blue chip names.

This has given them a unique chart compared to the three aforementioned index ETF’s, as their volumes have been less active of recent.

It’s also worth noting that they have more one year support than resistance levels, unlike the others.

Still, it will prove important to have an understanding of their prior volume sentiments when they retest price levels in the near-future.

$448 – NULL – 0:0*, +6.77% From Current Price

$444 – Buyers – 2.3:0*, +5.82% From Current Price

$440 – Sellers – 1.86:1, +4.86% From Current Price

$436 – Buyers – 3.17:1, +3.91% From Current Price

$432 – Buyers – 1.75:1, +2.96% From Current Price – 50 Day Moving Average*

$428 – Even – 1:1, +2% From Current Price

$424 – Buyers – 1.33:1, +1.05% From Current Price

$420 – Sellers – 1.15:1, +0.1% From Current Price – 10 Day Moving Average*

$416 – Buyers – 1.63:1, -0.86% From Current Price – Current Price Level & 200 Day Moving Average**

$412 – Sellers – 3.75:1, -1.81% From Current Price

$408 – Buyers – 3.67:1,. -2.76% From Current Price

$404 – Buyers – 3.17:1, -3.72% From Current Price

$400 – Buyers – 1.22:1, -4.67% From Current Price

$396 – Sellers – 1.75:1, -5.62% From Current Price

$392 – Buyers – 2.33:1, -6.58% From Current Price

$388 – Buyers – 1.64:1, -7.53% From Current Price

$384 – Buyers – 1.44:1, -8.48% From Current Price

$380 – Buyers – 1.05:1, -9.44% From Current Price

$376 – Buyers – 1.43:1, -10.39% From Current Price

$372 – Buyers – 1.06:1, -11.34% From Current Price

$368 – Buyers – 1.6:1, -12.3% From Current Price

$364 – Buyers – 1.92:1, -13.25% From Current Price

$360 – Sellers – 1.5:1, -14.2% From Current Price

$356 – Buyers – 0.4:0*, -15.16% From Current Price

$352 – Even – 1:1, -16.11% From Current Price

$348 – Buyers – 0.2:0*, -17.06% From Current Price

$344 – Buyers – 23:1, -18.02% From Current Price

$340 – Sellers – 1.11:1, -18.97% From Current Price

$336 – Buyers – 1.32:1, -19.92% From Current Price

$332 – Buyers – 1.21:1, -20.88% From Current Price

$328 – Buyers – 1.67:1, -21.83% From Current Price

$324 – Buyers – 1.02:1, -22.78% From Current Price

$320 – Sellers – 1.06:1, -23.74% From Current Price

$316 – Sellers – 1.88:1, -24.69% From Current Price

$312 – Buyers – 1.03:1, -25.64% From Current Price

$308 – Sellers – 1.19:1, -26.6% From Current Price

$304 – Sellers – 1.91:1, -27.55% From Current Price

$300 – Buyers – 1.11:1, -28.5% From Current Price

$296 – Sellers – 1.69:1, -29.45% From Current Price

$292 – Sellers – 3:1, -30.41% From Current Price

$288 – Sellers – 1.17:1, -31.36% From Current Price

$284 – Sellers – 1.67:1, -32.31% From Current Price

$280 – Even – 1:1, -33.27% From Current Price

$276 – Sellers – 8.5:1, -34.22% From Current Price

$272 – NULL – 0:0*, -35.17% From Current Price

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM OR DIA AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF ended the week -1.48% lower, while the VIX closed the week at 21.65, indicating an implied one day move of +/-1.36% & an implied one month move of +/-6.26%.

Their RSI is trending down towards oversold levels & currently sits at 38.17, while their MACD is bullish, but has curled over bearishly & looks primed to cross the signal line on Tuesday.

Volumes were -0.08% lower than the prior year’s average (52,636,000 vs. 52,680,680), which shows a lack of investor optimism based on the three day decline streak that ended the week.

Monday the week kicked off on a gap up session to open & remain above the support of the 200 day moving average on the week’s second highest volume.

This pump was short lived though, as Tuesday went on to show that there were no legs supporting that one day rally when the week’s lowest volume session opened on a gap up & closed setting up for an evening doji star reversal.

Wednesday opened slightly lower than Tuesday, but selling pressure mounted & the 200 day moving average’s support broke down & SPY managed to close beneath it, setting the stage for the declines of the rest of the week.

Thursday SPY opened on a gap down, briefly tested the 200 DMA’s resistance overhead, but was rejected & closed as a doji just above the 10 DMA’s support.

Friday SPY’s short term trend broke down, as it opened on a gap lower & declined -2.01% on the week’s strongest volume, indicating that there was not much appetite for holding risk heading into the weekend.

For the week ahead, much of last week’s note is still in play, given how close their week-over-week closing levels were.

There is still no base forming for SPY & uncertainty seems to be lingering longer than many had thought.

Extreme caution should follow any movements to the upside without stronger than average volume attached to them, as was shown by Monday & Tuesday’s sessions of last week.

If SPY is able to consolidate within the range it is in & maintain above $548.03 we may witness the 200 DMA become a stronger level for support which would help move SPY higher.

However, the longer it takes for that to occur the less likely it becomes, given that the 50 day moving average is moving bearishly towards the 200 DMA.

In the event of further declines that $548.03 level will be imperative for SPY to keep its head above, as otherwise it lacks any support until $534.38, and it has zones of historic selling pressure to help lower it down there based on investor behavior over the past ~2-3 years.

Look for continued oscillations around the 10 day moving average moving into the week as SPY tries to establish a base, else that $548.03/share level.

SPY has support at the $549.67 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.06:1), $548.03 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.06:1), $534.38 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.5:1) & $532.41/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.5:1) price levels, with resistance at the $558.91 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.44:1), $559.86 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.44:1), $564.29 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.8:0*) & $570.79/share (200 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 5.33:1) price levels.

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF declined -2.47% last week, as the tech-heavy index fared the worst of the major four.

Their RSI is declining towards the oversold 30 mark & sits currently at 37.18, while their MACD is still bullish, but should be crossing bearishly through the signal line by Wednesday.

Volumes were -0.29% lower than the prior year’s average (35,096,000 vs. 35,199,440), which confirms that the long-term trend has broken yet again for QQQ after Tuesday’s attempt to break out above it.

Monday opened QQQ’s week up on a gap up, but intraday the $485/share level was briefly broken through to the downside, before investors piled in to push it higher to close the day.

Tuesday opened with another gap up, a brief dip lower before breaking out above the 200 day moving average to close above the long-term trend line.

However, Tuesday carried the week’s weakest volume, making it clear that there was not a lot of bullish sentiment behind the false breakout.

Wednesday confirmed this when QQQ opened in-line with the 200 DMA & then sunk to below the $485/share level.

Thursday opened on a gap lower to be in-line with the 10 day moving average, temporarily was squeezed above the $485/share level, before breaking back below the 10 day moving average temporarily & closing in-line with it as a doji candle.

This didn’t just signify indecision, but also would set the stage for how QQQ’s short-term trend-line is viewed by market participants, which they voiced their opinions of on Friday.

Friday opened with a gap down & the highest volume session of the week resulted in a -2.63% decline for QQQ.

Like SPY, QQQ is in relatively the same position it was in last week.

There will be no lasting upside movements without a major influx in advancing volume that occurs for many days, not just a session or two & a base will need to form to act as support as well.

In the event of consolidation, expect to see prices oscillate around the 10 day moving average while waiting to observe if a base that can provide actual support forms.

In the event of further declines, the $446.18/share support level should be watched, as if that breaks down the $440.36 level will become a new downside frontier.

While it resides in a Buyer heavy zone, such a heavy ratio may mean that there will be more sellers stepping in to dilute the ratio, which will be an area to watch in the event that the level is approached.

QQQ has support at the $465.74 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.6:0*), $457.78 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.89:1), $446.18 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.4:1) & $440.36/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 4.22:1) price levels, with resistance at the $473.41 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.52:1), $481.38 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.24:1), $483.36 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.24:1) & $492.96/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 4.13:1) price levels.

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF fell -1.64% last week, as small cap names were the second least favorite by index.

Their RSI is is declining towards the oversold level of 30 & sits currently at 37.33, while their MACD looks ready to cross bearishly through the signal line by Wednesday.

Volumes were -20.67% lower than the prior year’s average (22,730,000 vs. 28,651,440), as while the index fell, there was a more cautious approach to selling compared to what we saw with SPY & QQQ.

Monday the week began just like SPY & QQQ’s with a giant gap up on muted volume.

Tuesday showed even lower volume, but the day resulted in decline that formed a bearish harami pattern with Monday’s candle, setting the stage for the declines of the rest of the week.

Wednesday the low volume trend continued as IWM slid to test the 10 day moving average’s support briefly intraday, but managed to close above it.

Thursday opened on a gap down in-line with the 10 day moving average, tested higher & below it before closing below the 10 DMA’s resistance, indicating that there was a loss of faith in the short-term trend line.

The subdued volume that was the second highest of the week, paired with the spinning top candle indicated that there’s still a bit of uncertainty about the near-term for IWM & the small caps, but that people aren’t inclined to be holding much risk at the moment.

Friday morning brought us another gap down open, and the week’s highest volume session resulted in a decline of -2.03%, as it was made clear that no one was overly keen on the thought of carrying risk into the weekend.

Much like SPY & QQQ, IWM’s short-term advances should be viewed skeptically in the near-term.

Without a dramatic uptick in volume that lasts for many sessions IWM is still sitting on unsteady ground.

If the $195.01-196.56 support zone holds up we may be able to find a short term consolidation that could serve as a base, but if that doesn’t occur IWM enters deeper into Seller dominated territory & additional losses should be expected, until the $189.17/share support level.

IWM has support at the $196.56 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.5:1), $195.72 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.15:1), $195.01 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.15:1) & $189.17/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.64:1) price levels, with resistance at the $202.46 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.54:1), $205.06 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.21:1), $205.49 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.21:1) & $207.39/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.21:1) price levels.

DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF dipped -0.95% last week, as the blue chip index was able to tread water in comparison to the other major four indexes.

Their RSI is declining towards the oversold mark & sits currently at 39.72, while their MACD looks primed to cross over bearishly by mid-week.

Volumes were -17.45% lower than the prior year’s average (2,632,000 vs. 3,188,480), which shows that market participants were taking a bit of a wait & see approach to the blue chip index.

In a rare event, SPY, QQQ, IWM & DIA all began the week in the same manner, gap up opens on weak volume.

Tuesday opened on another gap up, but this time there was a healthy dose of volume with it, but there was still hints of bearishness creeping in by the close of trading.

The session resulted in a hanging man candle, with an additional hint of bearish sentiment in their close being lower than their open.

Wednesday is when things began breaking down, as while the $128.14/share level was tested to the upside, it was abruptly denied & the session closed below the $425/share level.

Thursday the bearish sentiment continued with a gap down open, a brief attempt to trade above $425/share that did not last long, before declining further to end the day as a spinning top candle.

Friday DIA emerged with a gap down open that then proceeded to decline below the support of both the 10 & 200 day moving averages before closing -1.73% on the week’s second highest volume as there was limited risk appetite over the weekend among market participants.

Like the previous three index ETFs, dramatic upside advancing volume will be required before DIA can begin climbing sustainably, and all near-term advances should be treated with caution & skepticism.

A consolidation featuring oscillations around the 200 DMA while market participants decide how much faith they still have in the long-term trend line is also a possibility on the near-term menu, particularly as the volume sentiment in DIA’s current price zone has historically been Even 1:1 between Buyers:Sellers over the past ~4-5 years.

DIA’s remained resilient relatively speaking compared to the other index ETFs, but it is not immune from declines, particularly if the right macro catalyst comes along, such as a reaction to new tariffs.

In the event DIA begins to decline, the table below is a good place to review how market participants may step in or out based on their price level.

DIA has support at the $413.42 (Volume Sentiment: Even, 1:1), $412.17 (Volume Sentiment: Even, 1:1), $407.35 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.4:1) & $406.47/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.4:1) price levels, with resistance at the $416.93 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.11:1), $418.54 (200 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.11:1), $420.13 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.5:1) & $420.68/share (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.5:1) price levels.

The Week Ahead

Monday the week begins with the Chicago Business Barometer (PMI) at 9:45 am.

Loar Holdings reports earnings before Monday’s opening bell, followed by PVH & Tech Target after the session’s close.

S&P Final U.S. Manufacturing PMI data is released Tuesday at 9:45 am, followed by Construction Spending, ISM Manufacturing & Job Openings data at 10 am & Auto Sales data TBD.

Tuesday afternoon brings us earnings from nCino.

Wednesday morning begins with ADP Employment data at 8:15 am, before Factory Orders data at 10 am & Fed Governor Kugler speaking at 4:30 pm.

AngioDynamics, Cognyte Software & UniFirst report earnings before Wednesday’s opening bell, before RH, BlackBerry & Penguin Solutions report after the session’s close.

Initial Jobless Claims & U.S. Trade Deficit data come out at 8:30 am on Thursday, followed by S&P Final U.S. Services PMI data at 9:45 am, ISM Services data at 10 am, Fed Vice Chairman Jefferson speaking at 12:30 pm & Fed Governor Cook speaking at 2:30 pm.

Thursday’s before the bell earnings calls include Acuity, Conagra, Lamb Weston, Lindsay Corp & MSC Industrial, followed by Guess? & Simulations Plus after the closing bell.

Friday the week winds down with U.S. Employment Report, U.S. Unemployment Rate, U.S. Hourly Wages & Hourly Wages Year-over-Year data at 8:30 am, Fed Chairman Powell speaking at 11:25 am, Fed Governor Barr speaking at 12 pm & Fed Governor Waller speaking at 12:45 pm.

Greenbrier reports earnings before Friday morning’s opening bell.

See you back here next week!

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM OR DIA AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF added +0.21% last week, while the VIX closed the week out at 19.28, indicating an implied one day move of +/-1.22% & an implied one month move of +/-5.57%.

Their RSI has flattened out at the 41.75 mark, while their MACD crossed bullishly late last week, but looks primed to “dolphin” back below the signal line in the coming days.

Volumes were +23.87% above the prior year’s average level (65,666,000 vs. 53,013,052), which looks to be in part a result of a squeeze on Friday heading into the weekend when SPY had the highest volume of the week.

While the week as a whole had stronger than average volume (minus-Monday), the fact that SPY more or less tread water last week with the influx in participation should be met with a skeptical eye, particularly given how robust the 200 day moving average was in terms of limiting upper shadows with its resistance.

Monday the week opened higher, tested slightly lower before breaking through the 10 day moving average’s resistance, but was unable to break above the long-term trend line & ultimately retreated to close more in-line with the 10 DMA.

Monday’s session also had the lowest volume of the week, as investors were on the fence about hopping back into the pool & took a cautious “wait & see” approach.

Tuesday saw an open at the short-term trend line (10 DMA) & the rug was promptly pulled out from under SPY, as the rest of the session consisted of a downwards slide.

Volume was the third highest of the week on Tuesday, and the session’s lower shadow indicated that there was appetite for SPY to head towards the $555/share mark, which will be something to keep an eye on in the next week or two.

Wednesday again opened in-line with the 10 day moving average, which will be an area to continue to watch in the next week, as was highlighted in last week’s note.

The $560/share level was briefly dipped under, but shares came roaring back to attempt a run at the resistance of the 200 day moving average, which failed, but the second highest volume session of the week managed to close higher.

Thursday threw an interesting curveball to market participants, as the session formed a bearish harami pattern that opened again in-line with the 10 day moving average, ripped higher to test the long-term trend line & again failed, but managed to close above its open on the second lowest volume of the week.

That’s quite the run on sentence for limited participation.

Bearish sentiment carried over into the morning hours when on Friday SPY opened lower (and notably, below the 10 day moving average), tested slightly lower, before forming a bullish engulfing pattern with Thursday’s candle on the highest volume of the week.

It’s worth noting that Friday’s close was well beneath the 200 DMA’s resistance, indicating that there is some strong sentiment that the long-term trend has been broken.

While this morning’s session opened on a gap higher above the 200 DMA’s resistance, unless there is a substantial uptick in volume it should be viewed with a skeptic brow.

In the event of strong volume for multiple sessions above the 200 DMA’s support then the narrative will shift towards a base is being formed, however without such volume there’s not much of a story.

It will also be difficult, as per the table below SPY’s next three levels of resistance come at areas where there has been unusually high buyer volume (untested on the downside), else where sellers have historically been in control, and historic sentiments are important.

Should the gap up begin to close the window (most likely scenario), it will be interesting to see if there is a consolidation between the 10 & 200 day moving averages, or if there is a broader decline that sees SPY grind even lower than before, proving this past week to be a “breather”.

In the event of the consolidation scenario, keep an eye on whether SPY hugs the 10 or 200 DMA more tightly as it oscillates in the window & take note of where the volume is headed in terms of higher advancing or declining & the range of each day’s session; this will lend clues into the strength of the market & the next move.

Now, for the downside the $598-599 support zone is going to be interesting for a number of reasons.

Firstly, the $555-559.99/share zone is historically a Buyer dominated zone at a rate of 3.44:1, so any move that penetrates it to the downside will likely have some staying power & strong sentiment.

Secondly, there is no support for another -1.65% once the $558.91 level is broken through, which leads into a Seller dominated zone, making it likely to see continued declines from there.

Thirdly, while price may well oscillated between the 10 & 200 DMAs, the 50 DMA is approaching the long-term trend line by next Friday bearishly.

This may add a bit of extra chaos for SPY in the coming weeks at a time where most market participants are hoping for some stability & upward movement.

The table below will be worth referencing in regards to SPY’s moves over the coming weeks & should serve as a reference point for the strength/weakness of support/resistance levels.

SPY has support at the $559.92 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.44:1), $559.86 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.44:1), $558.91 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.44:1) & $549.67/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.06:1) price levels, with resistance at the $564.29 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.8:0*), $569.24 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.59:1), $569.75 (200 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.59:1) & $573.62/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 5.33:1) price levels.

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF gained +0.25% last week, but despite faring better than SPY it had less volume behind the upward move.

Their RSI is also flat & sits at 41.08, while the MACD also just broke north above th signal line, but does not look to have much more than a brief “dolphin moment” in terms of a bullish signal as of now.

Volumes were +13.78% higher than the prior year’s average (40,050,000 vs. 35,198,835), which is interesting given that each day was relatively close to one another, for both advancing & declining volume.

Monday opened on a gap higher, retraced into Friday’s range, before power higher through the resistance of the 10 day moving average, but ultimately closed in-line with the resistance level.

Tuesday gapped lower & folks wanted out, as the session never even flirted with the idea of testing the 10 day moving average’s resistance, and the $475/share level broke down on the week’s second lowest volume.

It’s worth noting that the lowest volume sessions of the week were the declining days, but given how close they all were that is more of an afterthought to keep in mind, but not dwell upon.

Wednesday opened in the middle of Tuesday’s candle’s body, temporarily broke down through the $475 level, before breaking out above the 10 DMA & breaking above the $485/share price level & ultimately settling lower to $480.17.

Thursday opened below the 10 day moving average, but made a run north for the $485/share level before settling lower at $478.55, to advance on the day, but on the week’s weakest volume.

Friday opened on a gap lower but managed to squeeze higher to close at $480.84, but the day’s shadows indicated that the downside had more favor than the upside heading into the weekend.

QQQ has some upside potential should they get an influx in advancing volume, but otherwise the upside looks almost identical to last week’s post.

Should they consolidate here, the range that they’ll trade in is relatively already determined based on their chart above when looking at the past two weeks & will be impacted by the movements of the 200 & 50 DMA’s which are both applying downside pressure on price movement currently.

In the event of consolidation, watch for trends in volume that day to determine whether a genuine base is forming (more accumulation volume vs. declining volume at a noticeable clip), or to see if this “breather” is skating on thin ice/doomed.

To the downside there looks to be some troubling volume patterns & historic market behavior.

QQQ’s first support level is in a Seller zone, followed by one in a Buyer zone that has the same ratio, which doesn’t inspire confidence if a similar ratio’d downside zone gets broken through, regardless of what the volume levels look like.

They then potentially break down through an entire price zone at $468-471.99/share as it is a Seller zone, before hitting their next support level which resides in a relatively untested zone in terms of Sellers not showing up (Buyers, 1.6:0*).

What’s more troubling though is that should QQQ find itself in this situation, the next support level is in a Seller zone (1.89:1), which then leads into one potential buoy zone ($452-455.99), before re-entering Sellersville for an ultimate potential loss of -7.66% from Friday’s closing price.

if the $447.28/share support level gets tested it would be wise to continue looking out down below – reference the table below for more information.

QQQ has support at the $476.75 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.52:1), $474.12 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.52:1), $466.43 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.6:0*) & $458.47/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.89:1) price levels, with resistance at the $484.08 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.88:1), $485.84 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.88:1), $493.09 (200 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 4.13:1) & $493.69/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 4.13:1) price levels.

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF climbed +0.44% last week, as the small cap index was favored over SPY & QQQ by investors.

Their RSI is trending towards oversold territory, currently sitting at 39.92, while their MACD has broken above the signal line bullishly following the mini-pump of the past week & a half.

Volumes were +1.87% above the prior year’s average (29,316,000 vs. 28,776,948), which lends subtle clues into the true market sentiment we’ll see shortly.

IWM is experiencing the same Monday morning window as the aforementioned index ETFs, but without a large uptick in volume it does not seem to have staying power.

Monday IWM opened up just beneath the 10 day moving average’s resistance, but was able to find its legs & break through it to the upside & close at over $205/share.

Tuesday resulted in a bearish harami pattern that’s lower shadow showed that there was appetite for IWM to trade below the support of its 10 day moving average on the week’s weakest volume.

Wednesday opened in the middle of Tuesday’s range, tested the support of the 10 DMA but managed to rally higher & temporarily break above the $207.50/share level on the week’s second highest volume.

Thursday formed a bearish harami pattern with Wednesday’s candle, and any notion of IWM breaking & staying above the $207.50/share level was dispelled, as the session’s upper shadow didn’t even make the mark & a bearish shooting star candle formed.

While it closed above its open, Thursday offered the second lowest volume of the week, which one would not expect given the nature of the higher close than open but still down day that had such a test to the upside that the bears ultimately thwarted.

Friday added another layer of interesting to the mix, opening on a gap lower in-line with the support of the 10 DMA, testing below it, before climbing to close above its open, but still for a declining -0.62% session on the week’s highest volume.

This is important for a few reasons.

Firstly, it shows that there is going to be a continued relationship between IWM’s price & the 10 DMA in the near-term.

Second, if the notes above on SPY & QQQ are any indicator, this was a squeeze play heading into the weekend, which when paired with the window up this morning is setting the stage for more declines after oscillators have recalibrated & algorithms can pummel them again (potentially**)

And IWM’s 50 DMA will bearishly cross their 200 DMA today, which will apply downwards pressure tomorrow or later in the week, which means a consolidation is the current best chance scenario.

In the event of a consolidation range forming it will likely oscillate around the 10 DMA & move in the direction of the higher volume trend.

In the worst case scenario things get iffy, as IWM has a bit of Seller sentiment for the next 7 support levels (4/7 skew to Sellers).

If $195.72 breaks down as support all eyes should shift to the $189.17/share level, which IWM will be walked to most likely based on historic volume sentiment & only one support level between the two (which is a weaker Buyers zone).

IWM has support at the $202.48 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.54:1), $202.46 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.54:1), $196.56 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.5:1) & $195.72/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.15:1) price levels, with resistance at the $205.49 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.21:1), $207.39 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.21:1), $207.68 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.21:1) & $209.47/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.64:1) price levels.

DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF advanced +1.03%, as the blue chip index was the favorite among market participants, but at extremely low levels of optimism.

Their RSI is also flat at 43.28, while their MACD is also set up to “dolphin” above the signal line, but does not appear to have much conviction behind a higher move.

Volumes were -37.99% lower than the prior year’s average level (1,986,000 vs. 3,202,731), which is problematic when you consider that DIA had the strongest week of the major index ETFs.

Monday began on an interesting note, as the session managed to break above the 200 DMA’s resistance, but was thwarted by the resistance of the 10 day moving average, making the breakout above the long-term trend line highly questionable.

Tuesday opened lower, broke down through the support of the 200 day moving average & broke south of the $415/share mark, before settling above it but below both the 10 & 200 day moving averages, forming a bearish harami pattern in the process.

Wednesday saw an open below the 10 & 200 DMAs which were set to cross (bearishly), but managed to scrape up an advancing session whose upper shadow indicated that there was some appetite higher, but that bears were still content on keeping prices near the 10 & 200 DMAs.

Thursday threw more bearish signals into the mix, but with a spike of optimism as DIA managed to break north to $422.33 & establish a new resistance level, but while they closed above the day’s open it was below Wednesday’s closing price, and on the week’s weakest volume.

Friday threw a bullish engulfing candle into DIA’s near-term mix, but while it was on the week’s strongest level of volume, it was hardly anything to write home about given how low their overall volume sentiment was for the week.

While it closed above both the 10 & 200 day moving averages it will require a major uptick in advancing volume, much like the aforementioned index ETFs.

As of 2pm there is a decent amount of advancing volume of the day’s gap up, but recall that last week’s volume was participation trophy level & nothing to be taken serious, so the rest of the week’s got a long ways to go if there’ll be any true reversal (pending a major news catalyst).

DIA’s potential consolidation range is similar to the one mentioned above for SPY, as they’re beginning to trade more closely than they did over the prior year now that times have become uncertain (SPY & QQQ traded more tightly & DIA became decoupled & moved more in-line with IWM).

It seems most likely that they’ve continue oscillating around the 200 DMA in the near-t0-mid term, but will be worth watching closer once the 50 day moving average’s resistance closes in & begins to look set to cross bearishly through the long-term trend line.

To the downside/insurance view, prices are in a Seller zone per Friday’s close, with the next price box Even between buyers & sellers historically.

This sets up an interesting situation, as should the $408.98/share support level be tested it is in a Buyer dominated zone that has not been well tested over the past ~5 years.

While the $404-407.99/share level is also Buyer dominated, the sentiment is not as strong, setting sights on the $407.35 & $406.47/share levels, which should they be broken through DIA will most certainly skid into <$400/share.

In the event that this happens the $396-399.99/share zone will become an interesting point to watch, as it has one support level & a lot of untested Seller volume potential.

This is -4.69% away from Friday’s close, so it’s something to consider, but not dwell upon.

DIA has support at the $417.55 (200 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.11:1), $416.93 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.11:1), $416.11 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.11:1) & $413.42/share (Volume Sentiment: Even, 1:1) price levels, with resistance at the $420.13 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.5:1), $422.33 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.5:1), $426.79 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2.25:1) & $430.06/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 4.5:1) price levels.

The Week Ahead

Monday the week kicks off with S&P Flash U.S. Services PMI & S&P Flash U.S. Manufacturing PMI data at 9:45 am.

KB Homes reports earnings after Monday’s closing bell.

Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey data comes out Tuesday at 8:30 am, before S&P Case-Schiller Home Price Index (20 Cities) at 9 am, and Consumer Confidence & New Home Sales data at 10 am.

Tuesday morning’s earnings calls include Canadian Solar, Core & Main, Cormedix & McKormick & Company, followed by GameStop & Worthington Enterprises after the session’s close.

Wednesday begins with Durable-Goods Orders & Durable-Goods Minus Transportation data at 8:30 am, followed by St. Louis Fed President Musalem speaking at 1:10 pm.

Dollar Tree, Chewy, Cintas, Jinko Solar, Paychex & Target Hospitality all report earnings before Wednesday’s opening bell, with Concentrix, H.B. Fuller, Jefferies, MillerKnoll, Petco Health & Wellness, Steelcase & Verint Systems reporting after the closing bell.

Initial Jobless Claims, GDP (Second Revision), Advanced U.S. Trade Balance in Goods, Advanced Retail Inventories & Advanced Wholesale Inventories data are all released at 8:30 am, before Pending Home Sales data at 10 am & Richmond Fed President Barkin speaks at 4:30 pm.

Thursday morning includes earnings from TD Synnex & Winnebego, before Lululemon Athletica, AAR Corp, Argan, Braze & Oxford Industries report earnings after the session’s close.

Friday the week winds down with Personal Income, Personal Spending, PCE Index, PCE (Year-over-Year), Core PCE Index & Core PCE (Year-over-Year) at 8:30 am, before Consumer Sentiment (Final) at 10 am & there are no noteworthy earnings reports.

See you back here next week!

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM OR DIA AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF fell -2.28% last week, while the VIX closed at 21.77 at the end of Friday’s session, indicating an implied one day move of +/-1.37% & a one month move of +/-6.29%.

Their RSI has bounced back above the oversold 30 level after Friday’s advancing session & sits currently at 37.73, while their MACD is still bearish but has flattened out & is moving towards the signal line.

Volumes were +48.21% above the previous year’s average level (78,752,000 vs. 53,134,498), as for the second straight week sellers have snapped the weak volume of the past year.

Week-over-week volume declined -4.28%, but that isn’t reason to start celebrating just yet (last week’s note).

Monday kicked the week off on a bearish note, as a gap down open below the 200 day moving average was unable to break back above its resistance on the week’s highest volume session.

While the decline was unable to break down the $555/share mark, it showed that there was plenty of interest for prices to be pushed down to test it later in the week.

Tuesday saw the declines continue with another gap lower on the open on a high wave candle that temporarily broke down below the $555/share mark, while also attempting to test but falling short of the $565/share level.

Wednesday the sellers took a short breather & the day resulted in an advancing session, however it should be noted that the session began on a gap up, before breaking down below the $555/share price level & recovering to close below its opening price at $558.87/share.

Wednesday’s volume would be the second lowest of the week, which is important to note as the only day with less volume was Friday, the other advancing session of the week.

Thursday opened on another gap lower, before testing all the way down to below the $550/share price level, but was able to close above the session’s low of $549.68/share.

Friday the week wound down on a positive note, but under the hood there was still signs of trouble.

Firstly, the ten day moving average bearishly crossed through the 200 DMA & secondly the volume of the session in relation to the day’s wide trading range were also cause for concern.

Friday’s session managed to advance +2.07%, which brought the total declines of the week up to -2.28%, which does not inspire much confidence.

For the week ahead, any upside movement will require strong volume with it in order to prove sustainable & inspire confidence to the upside, especially given how steep the declines of the past month have been.

Historically SPY’s next two resistance levels occur in a Seller dominated price zone (1.59:1), which will make it even more imperative to have strong upside volume in the near-term to see any advances that are sustainable.

There’s a chance of a consolidation range within the body of Friday’s candle as we head towards Wednesday’s FOMC Interest Rate announcement, which would provide some seller volume in the price zone that currently is Buyers 1.8:0*

Should we get that consolidation & lackluster advancing volume the $549.68/share price level will be a key place to keep your eyes on, as it’s currently the support level that was most recently hit in the past week.

It also resides in a Seller zone, indicating that if it gets retested & broken through that there will be further declines on the horizon, as the next support level lives -2.49% below it & also happens to be within a Seller zone, along with the next lowest support level at $534.01.

If these break down the next support level is -2.7% lower at $519.58/share.

SPY has support at the $561.54 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.8:0*), $560.59 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.8:0*), $551.32 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.25:1) & $549.68/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.06:1) price levels, with resistance at the $565.99 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.59:1), $568.19 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.59:1), $570.38 (200 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 5.33:1) & $575.35/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.08:1) price levels.

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF dropped -2.47% as investors fled the tech heavy index for a second consecutive week.

Their RSI has also just crossed back above the oversold 30 level & sits at 37.76, while their MACD is also bearish, but has flattened out & is moving towards the signal line.

Volumes were +60.5% above the prior year’s average level (56,504,000 vs. 35,204,137), and were +5.17% above last week’s QQQ volume, which should be approached with caution in the coming week.

QQQ’s week resembled SPY’s, as it kicked off with a gap lower on the week’s highest volume on Monday, with the $470/share level temporarily broken down through intraday.

Tuesday opened on a gap lower & resulted in a high wave candle that broke down through the $470/share level to the downside, and fell just short of the $480/share level to the upside, closing the day as a spinning top candle.

This symbol of uncertainty combined with the week’s second highest volume on a declining session is not reason to inspire confidence in the near-term.

Wednesday saw a gap up open that briefly crossed above the $480/share level, but that quickly deflated to dip beneath the $475/share price level before finally closing lower than it opened at $476.92.

While volumes were still eclipsing the rest of 2025’s levels, Wednesday & onward was very tame for QQQ compared to Monday & Tuesday.

Thursday the declines continued, as the day opened with a gap down & the declines continued to below the $470/share mark.

Friday offered a +2.42% advance, helping trim the week’s total losses to -2.47%.

Much like SPY, the only way that there will be a sustainable recovery to the upside for QQQ will require there to be a major increase in advancing volume & any up days that don’t show that should be viewed with a suspicious eye.

This is especially true given that Friday’s closing price falls in a Seller dominated zone at a ratio of 1.52:1, so an increase in volume will be needed to trump historic Seller senitment.

This week there will likely be a consolidation within the price range of the latter portion of last week, as the 10 day moving average catches up to QQQ’s price, which may then lead to oscillation around the short-term trend line.

The downside case for QQQ is not a particularly rosy picture, as while there has been plenty of Buyer support at their next three support levels, they’ve also been relatively untested & the fourth support level requires a -6.6%+ drop before it can be tested, where it enjoys a Seller:Buyer ratio of 1.4:1.

Should this occur, it will be time to focus on the $441.02/share support level, where Buyers have historically been victorious at a clip of 4.22:1.

QQQ has support at the $474.12 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.52:1), $466.43 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.6:0*), $458.47 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.89:1) & $447.28/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.4:1) price levels, with resistance at the $484.08 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.88:1), $484.39 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.88:1), $492.40 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 4.13:1) & $493.69/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 4.13:1) price levels.

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF shed only -1.49% last week, as the small cap index outperformed the rest of the pack after three months of steady declines.

Their RSI has also just peeked its head back up above the oversold 30 mark & is currently at 34.53, while their MACD is bearish, but moving towards the signal line following the range of the past week that IWM stayed within.

Volumes were +33.63% above the previous year’s average level (38,652,000 vs. 28,924,779), which doesn’t inspire much confidence, given that Friday’s +2.42% session brought the total week’s losses to -1.49%.

Monday kicked the week off on a gap down for IWM on the week’s second highest volume of the week, where the upper shadow of the day’s candle couldn’t break above the $205/share level, while the lower range of the day indicated that there was appetite below the $200/share level.

Tuesday also did not inspire confidence for IWM, as the week’s highest volume session resulted in a high wave spinning top candle, where the day’s high did not break above Monday’s opening price & the day’s low almost matched Monday’s low, all the while the day closed as a declining day.

Wednesday opened on a gap up, before retreating to temporarily trade below $200/share & ultimately closed lower than it opened, indicating that there was still a lot of negative sentiment in the market for the small cap index.

Thursday provided the week’s weakest volume, but also provided the local downside support level at $197/share based on the day’s low, while Friday managed to close out the day for an advancing session.

The coming week will be interesting for IWM, as any type of advance will require an uptick in volume to be taken seriously & should be viewed skeptically if there is no volume improvement.

We will likely see some form of consolidation heading into mid-week, where the $197 support level gets retested & price oscillates around the 10 day moving average until we get a greater catalyst to the upside or downside.

As for downside risks, IWM currently only has 5 support levels below Friday’s closing price on their one year chart, the lowest of which is $189.60/share.

What makes this significant is that the current support zone beneath IWM’s Friday close are the only 2 Buyer dominated zones that occur before historic Seller volume leads prices towards that retest.

The table below will be important to review in the coming weeks with regards to IWM’s price movement.

IWM has support at the $197.34 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.5:1), $197 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.5:1), $196.15 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.5:1) & $195.45/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.15:1) price levels, with resistance at the $202.91 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.54:1), $203.85 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.54:1), $205.95 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.21:1) & $207.86/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.21:1) price levels.

DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF declined -3.01% last week, faring the worst of the major index ETFs as investors dumped names in the blue chip index.

Their RSI has just came back from oversold territory & sits at 36.2, while their MACD is still bearish, but has flattened & may approach the signal line in the coming week.

Volumes were -5.56% lower than the previous year’s average (3,054,000 vs. 3,233,896), bucking the trend of higher volumes, despite losing the most on the week out of the major index ETFs.

While DIA has been the most resilient of the major index ETFs, the blue chip names have begun to show cracks as their long-term trend line broke down last week.

Monday DIA opened on a gap down, where the day’s high occurred above $425/share, but the day’s low went down to test the support of the 200 day moving average.

Tuesday the negative sentiment continued, as the highest volume session of the week opened on a gap lower & broke through the 200 DMA’s support & continued lower, closing below the $515/share mark.

Wednesday this trend continued, as DIA opened in-line with the 200 DMA, tried to poke its head out higher, but was rejected & broke down to approach the $410/share level & closed lower on the day.

Thursday opened on another gap down for the third of the week & declined all the way down to the new $407.25/share support level before recovering a little bit & closing at $413.95.

Friday’s +1.61% advance cut DIA’s weekly losses to -3.01%, indicating that there is still quite a bit of bearish sentiment in the markets right now.

Much like the aforementioned three indexes, DIA will require a spike in advancing volume in order to recover from the past few weeks in a sustainable manner.

They’re also in a unique position, in that their current price level is in a price zone where buyers & sellers have met at a ratio of 1:1 in the last 4-5 years, but their next two resistance levels occur in a zone that has gone to the sellers at a rate of 1.1:1.

With the 10 day moving average fast approaching the 200 DMA there is still some downside pressure on DIA’s price, but it seems likely that there will be at least a short-term consolidation that oscillates between the $407.25/share mark & the 200 day moving average.

Another area of worry for DIA is in the event that their prices do break down, as the $408-411.99/share zone has seen limited downside volume & that ratio will likely be diluted further down from 12:1.

Should it break down & the $407.25/share support level can’t hold up, there isn’t a local support level until $397.35/share, which is -2.43% lower & enters another relatively overly bullish ratio zone.

The table below will be valuable in the coming week(s) to gain insight into DIA’s potential price movements based on historic volume data.

DIA has support at the $414.21 (Volume Sentiment: Even, 1:1), $412.95 (Volume Sentiment: Even, 1:1), $409.76 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 12:1) & $408.12/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 12:1) price levels, with resistance at the $417.39 (200 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.11:1), $417.73 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.11:1), $420.93 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.5:1) & $421.46/share (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.5:1) price levels.

The Week Ahead

Monday the week kicks off with U.S. Retail Sales, Retail Sales minus Autos & Empire State Manufacturing Survey data at 8:30 am, followed by Business Inventories & Home Builder Confidence Index data at 10 am.

Science Applications & Textron report earnings before Monday’s opening bell, with Getty Images & Open Lending scheduled to report after the session’s close.

Housing Starts, Building Permits, Import Price Index & Import Price Index minus Fuel data are all released at 8:30 am, before Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization data is released at 9:15 am.

Tuesday morning’s earnings calls include HUYA, KE Holdings & Tencent Music, followed by Maravai LifeSciences & ZTO Express after the closing bell.

Wednesday afternoon features the FOMC Interest-Rate Decision at 2pm & Fed Chair Powell’s Press Conference at 2:30 pm.

General Mills, Kingsoft Cloud, Ollie’s Bargain Outlet, Signet Jewelers & Sportradar Group report Wednesday morning before the session opens, followed by Super Micro Computer, Five Below & Worthington Steel after the session’s close.

Initial Jobless Claims & Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey data are released Thursday morning at 8:30 am, followed by Existing Home Sales & U.S. Leading Economic Indicators data at 10 am.

Thursday morning’s earnings calls include Academy Sports + Outdoors, Commercial Metals, Darden Restaurants, Designer Brands, FactSet, Jabil, Shoe Carnival & ZEEKR Intelligent, with FedEx, Lennar, KinderCare Learning Companies, Luminar Technologies, Micron, NIKE & Torrid reporting after the closing bell.

Friday features no major economic data announcements & NIO & Carnival will report earnings before the opening bell.

See you back here next week!

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM OR DIA AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF fell -3.07% last week, while the VIX closed out at 23.37, indicating an implied one day move of +/-1.47% & an implied one month move of +/-6.75%.

Their RSI is currently at 37.02, while their MACD is still in bearish decline, which will make for an interest week as their 200 day moving average is just -1.11% below Friday’s closing price.

Volumes were +54.34% above the previous year’s average level (82,276,000 vs. 53,307,400), indicating that there is a bit of nervous energy & bearishness as people are jumping out of the pool in droves.

It’s worth noting that on 3/17/2024 SPY’s prior year’s average volume was 78,989,814, so this week’s average volume for the prior year eclipses that by +4.16%, which is an incredibly bearish signal given how the current average prior year’s volume for this week is -32.51% lower than from 51-weeks ago (note here).

Monday the week kicked off with a rather bearish set up, as SPY opened higher, tested the 10 & 50 day moving average’s resistance, which were crossing over bearishly, before dropping to form a bearish engulfing pattern with Friday’s candle, setting the stage for further declines into the week.

Tuesday opened on a gap down, tested higher to above Monday’s close, before puking lower to close the day red & based on the high wave candle’s lower shadow exposed a good deal of downside appetite, breaking below the $575/share mark.

There was a large tug of war going on that day, as the session had the week’s & 2025’s highest volume to date, but in the end the bears won.

Wednesday opened lower & again broke the $575/share mark temporarily, but was able to claw back higher to temporarily break above the $585/share mark, which proved unsustainable, but the session ended as a bullish engulfing pattern.

It’s worth noting that this came on the week’s lowest volume, which indicated that there was limited staying power & that it was likely just a head-fake to lure folks back into the markets after all of the selling of the prior 2-3 weeks.

Thursday opened on a gap lower, tested above the $580/share mark, but proved that the ship was still sinking as it proved unsustainable & the declines continued, briefly flirting with the support of the 200 day moving average, but recovering slightly to still close on a down day on the week’s third highest volume, signaling that the bulls were nowhere to be found.

Friday the week wound down on a bullish engulfing candle with the week’s second highest volume, but it again looked to be a head-fake, as the long-term trend line was broken through to the downside & the $565/share mark was approached, but not tested.

Per last week’s note, we saw the $575.35/share support line temporarily break down, which set the stage for the aforementioned trend test & the fact that it succeeded briefly indicates that there is questionable-to-shattered confidence in the market currently.

Another area of note is that the $570-574.99/share zone has been dominated by Buyers at a rate of 5.33:1 over the past ~2-3 years & yet the bulls were unable to defend the zone & it broke down temporarily.

As I am writing this (Monday morning as I was just OOO last week) the declines have continued per the open, and the high of the first 32 minutes of trading has not been able to break above the 200 DMA’s resistance.

The $565-$569.99/share zone has been dominated by Sellers at a rate of 1.59:1 in recent history, indicating that without some strong earnings results or a miracle from Wednesday’s CPI print or Thursday’s PPI print we will likely see further declines.

This is especially true given that the $560-564.99/share zone has seen limited downside tests & has been a Buyer zone at a rate of 1.8:0* & there has been a bit of momentum to the downside building up over the past few weeks.

The bullish case rests on SPY being able to break above the 200 DMA’s resistance & the $575.35/share mark, which will require a major catalyst & a large influx in advancing volume if it is to be sustainable, as currently there is a rather pessimistic outlook from the volume sentiment of SPY.

What is more likely to happen is that we either see a consolidation range established based around today’s close that will straddle & oscillate around the 200 DMA, or we see further breakdowns until their RSI crosses into oversold territory & a brief consolidation range forms as sellers take a breather.

Should that $560/share zone break down SPY will see a bit more trouble brewing, as despite there being 3.44:1 Buyers:Sellers for the $560.59/share support level, that breakdown leads to an elevator ride down with only one stop at $551.32/share to $535.99/share (an additional -2.78% decline) based on a lack of support levels in between, paired with weak Buyer sentiment along the way down.

The table below highlights the volume sentiments for SPY over the past ~2-3 years & is useful for assessing the strength/weakness of support/resistance levels in the coming weeks as they’re tested.

SPY has support at the $575.35 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers 1.08:1), $569.54 (200 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.59:1), $565.99 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.59:1) & $561.54/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.8:0*) price levels, with resistance at the $580.91 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.88:1), $584.15 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.88:1), $585.75 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.55:1) & $590.49/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 4:1) price levels.

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF dropped -3.22% last week, as the tech-heavy index fell out of favor among investors as well.

Their RSI is just above the oversold 30-mark & sits currently at 35.65, while their MACD is still in bearish decline with a histogram that isn’t painting a picture of it changing in the near-term.

Volumes were +52.34% above the prior year’s average level (53,728,000 vs. 35,269,360), which when compared to last year’s average level paints a similar eerie picture as SPY’s, given that this year’s average prior year’s volume is -29.86% lower than a year ago’s level of 50,281,257.

Monday opened similarly to SPY, as QQQ set a bearish engulfing pattern on Friday’s candle, with the $495/share mark being temporarily broken through to the downside.

Tuesday continued the bearish theme, as QQQ opened on a gap down, broke down through the 200 DMA’s support briefly, continued lower to break down the $490/share price level, before climbing back to close above it’s open, but still lower than Monday’s close.

The high wave candle also showed some temporary upside appetite too, but in the end the week’s highest volume session went to the bears after a long tug-of-war.

Wednesday opened on a gap up, but not without testing lower down to the 200 DMA’s support, but QQQ managed to bounce north from it to close above the $500/share mark.

It’s worth noting that this occurred on the week’s second lowest volume, so the upside move lacked strength behind it.

QQQ opened Thursday on a gap lower, briefly attempting to break higher above the $495/share mark, but did not reach the $450 level, and came crashing down below the 200 day moving average’s support to close below the $490/share level.

Thursday’s lower shadow also signaled that the $485/share level became in play & the week’s second highest volume session painted a dismal picture for the coming week.

Friday opened on a gap lower, broke down below the $485/share level & almost reached the $480/share mark, before rallying higher to briefly break above the 200 DMA’s resistance & closed the week out just below the long-term trend line.

Like SPY, there will need to be a significant shift in advancing volume in order for any upside near-term moves to be sustainable & as such all should be viewed skeptically in the coming week(s).

In the event of a consolidation range forming, it will likely oscillate around the 200 DMA once the long-term trendline & QQQ’s price meet again, but per Monday’s open there were further declines away from the slow moving average.

An area of concern for QQQ which can be seen in the table below is that their next four support levels from Friday’s close extend to declines of ~-9% in terms where their fourth support level to find footing on occurs & there is a lot of Seller pressure along the way there, lumped in with only one strong Buyer pressure zone ($452-455.99/share @ a rate of 2.5:1).

Any downside movements are worth referencing against the table below to see where there may be relief, but with so few local support levels QQQ looks ready for a difficult week(s) ahead in the near-term.

QQQ has support at the $484.08 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.88:1), $474.12 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.52:1), $458.47 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.89:1) & $447.28/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.4:1) price levels, with resistance at the $491.89 (200 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.57:1), $493.69 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 4.13:1), $499.70 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2:0*) & $502/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.22:1) price levels.

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF declined -4.05%, as the small cap index took the brunt of the week’s beatings in terms of the major index ETFs.

Their RSI is in oversold territory, sitting at 29.59, while their MACD is bearish with a steady histogram reading, which doesn’t signal that there is an immediate recovery on the horizon.

Volumes were +44.59% above the previous year’s average levels (41,838,000 vs. 28,934,640), which should sound alarm bells given that IWM’s current previous year’s average volume is -16.67% lower than that level one year ago (34,724,721).

IWM’s week opened on a bearish engulfing candle as well, after they’d already broken down through their 200 day moving average’s support the week prior & the resistance of the 10 DMA was unable to be tested despite the gap up opening price level.

Tuesday opened on a gap down, tested lower to break down through the $205/share level to the downside, but heavy volume pushed IWM higher to flirt with the $210/share mark, before closing above its opening price, but still lower on the day.

Tuesday’s high wave doji candle showed that while there was some uncertainty surrounding where IWM was to be valued, it was definitively viewed as lower given the candle’s real body & the highest volume of the week showed that despite the tug-of-war, there was conviction that it certainly belonged lower.

Wednesday opened on a gap higher, tested lower to <$205/share mark, but ultimately was able to break out & close above the $207/share level; it should be noted that this occurred on weak volume, indicating that there was limited strength behind the move higher & that it should be viewed skeptically.

Thursday confirmed this, as IWM opened on a gap lower & closed the day as a high wave doji that signaled that there was some appetite to above $207/share still, but sellers came out to force the session below $205/share briefly before it settled down for the day just above that level.

Friday resulted in the week’s second highest volume on another high wave candle, but the high was unable to reach the $207/share level & the low broke down below the $202/share mark.

While the day resulted in a bearish engulfing candle, the lower shadow speaks volumes about investor sentiment towards IWM in the near-term & it’s a bleak outlook.

The bullish case for IWM revolves around their RSI being in oversold territory & a brief bounce, but like with SPY & QQQ, without a meaningful increase in consistent advancing volume there’s little reason to believe any such move will be sustainable.

Any upward movement would also likely be thwarted by the 10 day moving average’s resistance, as it bears down on IWM’s price.

The more neutral look at IWM would be for a consolidation range to form around Friday/today’s price ranges that would likely oscillate around their 10 day moving average, but given that this is the small cap index this would only happen as a result of a temporary breather after their past few months of declines while their RSI heads back towards the neutral level, as they will continue to be punished if their larger counterpart indexes head lower.

The $196-197.99/share zone will be a place of interest in the event of further declines for IWM, as it is the strongest level of Buyer:Seller sentiment over the past ~2-3 years (2.5:1) within -9.69% of Friday’s closing price & it houses two support levels.

Should these break down the next support level has less historic Buyer sentiment (1.15:1) before we re-enter Seller dominated zones without support levels, which will make it difficult to find stable footing on.

The following support level is $189.60, which occurs in a Buyers zone (1.64:1), which if that breaks down is the last one-year support level & prices enter a Seller dominated zone at a rate of 1.44:1, which would prove poor for IWM.

The $188/share mark is -8.72% from Friday’s close, so if prices break down through it & then slide through the next zone, the $186/share level is -9.69% from Friday’s closing level.

As with the indexes above, it is worth reviewing IWM’s price action against the table below in the coming weeks.

IWM is at a support/resistance point of $205.95 & has support at the $202.91 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.54:1), $197.34 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.5:1), $196.15 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.5:1) & $195.45/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.15:1) price levels, with resistance at the $207.86 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.64:1), $207.96 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.64:1), $209.94 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.64:1) & $210.93/share (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.64:1) price levels.

DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF dipped -2.31% last week, as the blue chip names still remained the most resilient of the major indexes.

Their RSI is currently at 40.99, while their MACD is bearish & its histogram is not indicating that the slide is over in the near-term.

Volumes were +4.14% above the prior year’s average (3,384,000 vs. 3,249,250), which is less troubling than the aforementioned indexes, but given that DIA is home to the blue chips this should be expected.

Their current prior year’s average volume level is -5.53% lower than DIA’s average volume level one year ago (3,439,304), so even some of the investors who value the safety of the blue chip names are beginning to head towards the exit.

Monday opened the week up on a gap higher above the 10 day moving average’s resistance, broke above the $440/share mark, before sliding below the support of both the 10 & 50 DMAs to cross below the $430/share level temporarily to close forming a bearish engulfing candle with Friday’s session.

One thing of note here was that while Monday had DIA’s widest range of the week, it also contained the highest volume, setting the stage for further declines & likely signaling a larger trend shift for the blue chip names.

Tuesday followed suit & opened on a gap lower, attempted to break above the $430/share level but was unable to remain above it for long & ultimately closed lower, with the day’s low price touching below $425/share, signaling that there was more downside interest on the horizon.

Wednesday opened on a gap lower & again the $425/share level was broken through bearishly temporarily, before DIA rallied to close above the $430/share level; however this occurred on the second lowest volume of the week, signaling that there was not much conviction behind the bullish engulfing candle, particularly given the day’s wide range of prices covered.

Thursday resulted in an interesting day for DIA, as the week’s lowest volume session resulted in a high wave doji candle for a decline, causing a bearish harami pattern, where the upper shadow tested & was rejected by the $430/share level, while the day’s low crossed below the $425/share level.

The low volume on a high wave candle does not indicate that there was much tug-of-war & as a result the taller upper shadow comes with less meaning given the result of the day’s close.

Friday threw an interesting head-fake to the upside, as the day opened on a gap lower below the $425/share level, tested & bounced off of the $421.98/share level, before advancing for the day to close+0.55% & form a bullish engulfing pattern.

While it was on the week’s second highest volume, it indicates that at best DIA will consolidate in a range between the real body of Friday’s candle.

DIA will need significant increases in advancing volume for any near-term gains to be sustainable like the other three indexes & has the resistance of the 10 day moving average bearing down on it.

In the event of a downside move the 200 DMA’s support will be a key area to watch, as it resides in a zone that Sellers have bested Buyers 1.11:1 over the past ~4-5 years & should it break down the next zone ($412-415.99/share) has been Even (1:1) between the bulls & bears in terms of volume, which will likely become advantage Sellers unless the price oscillates around the 200 DMA favoring the downside.

The $408.12/share support level will become a key area to watch should those events unfold, as the $408-411.99/share has historically been won by Buyers at a rate of 12:1, which means it has been relatively untested by Sellers.

If that level breaks down there isn’t another support level to gain footing on for another -2.64% & a Seller:Buyer 1.17:1 zone sits atop it, which will likely lead prices lower to test it.

The table below will be beneficial to reference in the coming weeks in relation to DIA’s price movements.

DIA has support at the $427.60 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2.25:1), $420.93 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.5:1), $417.73 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.11:1) & $416.78/share (200 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.11:1) price levels, with resistance at the $430.88 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 4.5:1), $431.80 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 4.5:1), $432.86 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.75:1) & $435.90/share (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.5:1) price levels.

The Week Ahead

There is no major economic data due for release on Monday.

BioNTech & Franco-Nevada report earnings Monday morning before the opening bell, followed by Asana, HighPeak Energy, Limbach Holdings, Mission Produce, Oracle, Paymentus, StandardAero & Vail Resorts after the closing bell.

Tuesday opens with NFIB Optimism Index data at 6:45 am, before Job Openings Data is released at 10 am.

Ciena, Dick’s Sporting Goods, Ferguson Enterprises, First Watch Restaurant Group, Holley, Kohl’s, Korn Ferry, Legend Biotech, United Natural Foods & Viking Holdings all report earnings before Tuesday’s opening bell, with Cadre Holdings, Casey’s General, Stitch Fix & Westrock Coffee reporting after the session’s close.

Wednesday begins with Consumer Price Index, CPI Year-over-Year, Core CPI & Core CPI Year-over-Year data at 8:30 am, followed by Monthly U.S. Federal Budget data at 2 pm.

ABM Industries, Arcos Dorados & iRobot all report earnings Wednesday before the session’s open, with Adobe, American Eagle Outfitters, Calavo Growers, Crown Castle, Phreesia, SentinelOne, Sprinklr & UiPath reporting after the closing bell.

Initial Jobless Claims come out at 8:30 am on Thursday, as well as Producer Price Index, Core PPI, PPI Year-over-Year & Core PPI Year-over-Year data.

Thursday’s earnings kick off with Dollar General, G-III Apparel & Weibo in the morning, before Ulta Beauty, Berry Petroleum, Blink Charging, DocuSign, EverCommerce, PagerDuty, Rubrik, Semtech, ServiceTitan, Wheaton Precious Metals, Xponential Fitness & Zumiez report after the session’s close.

Consumer Sentiment (prelim) March data is due for release on Friday at 10 am.

Friday’s morning’s earnings reports include Buckle, Gogo & Li Auto.

See you back here next week!

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM OR DIA AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***

Well, things have become interesting… the week ended relatively in-line with last week’s expectations.

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF dipped -0.96% this past week, while the VIX closed at 19.63, indicating an implied one day move of +/-1.24% & an implied one month move of +/-5.67%.

Their RSI is advancing towards the neutral 50 mark & sits currently at 44.54, while their MACD is bearish, but their histogram has begun to taper off following Friday’s session.

Volumes were +18.77% above the previous year’s average level (63,054,000 vs. 53,091,315), which should be viewed as problematic given the declines of the last week that were saved by Friday’s squeeze heading into the weekend.

Monday the week kicked off on a sour note, as while SPY opened above Friday’s close it was unable to stay above the support of the 50 day moving average, closing below it to not return above the medium-term trend line for the remainder of the week.

Tuesday the declines continued, on slightly higher volume than Monday, indicating that market participants had become antsy, particularly as the $590/share price level was temporarily broken during the session.

Wednesday the declines took a breather, but there was no indication that things were going to turn around, as the day flashed many bearish signals.

The session opened in the middle of Tuesday’s range, tested higher to break above the 50 day moving average’s resistance, before cratering & settling below the open, with the sessions’s lower shadow indicating that there was still downside appetite as well.

It should be noted that the session closed as a spinning top as well, on the week’s lowest volume while forming a bearish harami pattern with Tuesday’s candle, signaling that there was a bit of anxiety in the market.

Thursday opened on a gap up just beneath the 50 day moving average’s resistance, tested higher but was unable to break above the 50 DMA & ultimately dropped to below the $585/share price level on the second highest volume of the week.

It should also be noted that this was the third highest volume of the year, trailing the previous Friday’s volume & the volume that was produced in the following day’s session.

There was clearly a bit of fear in the air.

Friday had the highest volume of 2025 on a +1.56% advancing session which saved SPY’s week in terms of final performance.

It closed with signs of uncertainty, as there was high volume & the candle formed a bullish harami pattern, which could indicate a reversal is in the making, especially given that the volume was the highest of 2025.

It may be worth taking a look to back on December 20,2025 when a similar pattern emerged in terms of both the pattern & the volume spike while SPY was below their 50 DMA.

While the next three sessions advanced, the next few weeks saw increased declines, creating the $575.35/share support level that we will be keeping an eye on over the coming weeks.

One point of difference is that there is more distance between the 10 & 50 DMAs, follow the volume trends over the coming week(s) to see if there is an increase in advancing volume levels, which will be imperative to sustain the reversal.

It currently looks like the 50 DMA will be straddled/oscillated around moving into the next week, particularly as it is -0.52% below the 10 DMA, which is ready to cross over bearishly in the next few sessions.

Should the $590.49/share support level break down, the following two support levels have been dominated by Sellers at the rate of 1.88:1 over the past ~3-4 years.

That $575.35 support level happens to be in a Buyer dominated zone, but the ratio has been only 1.08:1, which means that the long-term trend line is now in play, as the 200 DMA’s support is only -4.39% below Friday’s closing price & is the next support level.

Should there be any advances, the $600/share mark will be difficult to cross bullishly & sustain further advances based on the volume data in the table below.

SPY has support at the $590.49 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 4:1), $584.15 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.88:1), $580.19 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.88:1) & $575.35/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.08:1) price levels, with resistance at the $597.86 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.47:1), $600.97 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.04:1), $602.48 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.04:1) & $607.03/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 5.5:1) price levels.

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF declined -3.4% last week, faring the worst of the major index ETFs.

Their RSI is advancing towards the neutral 50 level, but currently sits at 39.7, while their MACD is bearish & looks set to continue lower.

Volumes were +26.82% above the previous year’s average (44,554,000 vs. 35,131,713), which paints an even bleaker picture than was just described regarding SPY.

Much like SPY, Monday opened the week off on a sour note for QQQ, as the session broke down through the 50 day moving average’s support to close beneath it, setting the stage for a week of declines.

Volume was light, but it was the kindling that lit the fire for the rest of the week.

Tuesday opened on a gap lower, but more sellers entered the arena than Monday & forced a temporary breakdown of the $510/share price level, but prices were able to recover enough to close down, but above $510/share.

Wednesday saw a temporary breather, but much like SPY’s chart, it did not paint a picture of recovery.

The day formed a bearish harami pattern with Tuesday on a high wave spinning top, indicating a great deal of indecision, particularly as the day had the weakest volume of the week.

Thursday opened on a gap up, formed a bearish engulfing pattern on Wednesday’s candle & had the second highest volume of the year, indicating that there was a large abandoning of ship after the NVDA earnings calls which was after Wednesday’s close.

Friday did QQQ no favors either, as despite the +1.58% advance the $500/share level was blatantly broken down before the rally that pushed QQQ to close higher, and volumes were lower than Thursday’s, making it appear like a bait & switch squeeze in the wake of the major declining day.

Heading into the new week QQQ has a slightly different set up than SPY, given that their 10 DMA is set to crossover bearishly through the 50 DMA by Wednesday & the proximity of their close to their long-term trend line.

QQQ closed the week with their 200 DMA’s support just -3.44% below their closing price, which indicates that prices may venture back north to near where the 10 & 50 DMA’s are temporarily, else consolidate within the range established by Friday’s candle for the week.

The good news for bulls is that QQQ is currently in the last of three major Seller dominated price levels that were outline below (also on the table below), but the bad news is that given how fast they fell last week & at such high participation rates, that even consolidating temporarily seems tricky without some increase in volume vs. the prior year’s average.

Should prices advance & retest the 10 & 50 DMAs’ resistance levels, the December 20th mark listed above is worth revisiting to get an idea of where things may go, as well as the chart below for the volume sentiment reading.

Should the 200 DMA’s support break down, $487.99-484.00 will be the last stalwart of support, with Buyers besting Sellers at a ratio of 4.133:1 over the past ~2-3 years, else there’ll likely be a further breakdown from the $484.08/share support level.

QQQ has support at the $502.00 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.22:1), $499.70 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2:0*), $493.69 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 4.13:1) & $490.70/share (200 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.57:1) price levels, with resistance at the $508.47 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.54:1), $511.05 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 3.13:1), $514.75 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 3.13:1) & $522.09/share (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.6:1) price levels.

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF fell -1.45% last week, as small caps held steady on volume, but were unable to finish above par.

Their RSI is advancing after bouncing off of the oversold 30 level & sits currently at 34.98, while their MACD is still bearish, but the histogram is waning after Friday’s advancing session.

Volumes were +4.82% above the previous year’s average (30,156,000 vs. 28,769,163), which while it appears irrelevant compared to SPY & QQQ does indicated that there is trouble brewing for small caps as well.

Monday set the week up for failure quickly, as the session immediately broke down the long-term trend line of support & tested the downside of $215/share, indicating that folks were hopping out of the pool.

Tuesday this continued, when the session opened & tried to test the resistance of the 200 DMA, failed & went south to close on a decline on the highest volume of the week.

Wednesday attempted a “Hail Mary” & wound up just forming a bearish harami pattern on the week’s weakest volume, but the upper shadow shows that at least for a moment, there were some buyers in the room.

IWM closed as a spinning top candle that closed lower than it opened, indicating indecision-to-negative sentiment, with the lower shadow of the day’s range breaking below $215/share, setting the stage for further losses.

This was also the week’s weakest session by volume, indicating that there was not much validity to the upwards moves of the day & that profits were taken.

Thursday produced further declines that lead to IWM being under $212.50/share, with the upper shadow of the day’s candle not signaling much upside appetite.

Friday opened on a gap lower, tested lower, before closing out as an advance of +1.06%, but the volumes tell the same story of short-term squeeze, which the 200 DMA’s resistance at 1.46% above Friday’s close will likely prove true.

IWM is currently in the $212-213.99/share price zone, which over the past ~2-3 years has been primarily dominated by the Sellers at a ratio of 1.29:1, signaling that the added resistance of the long-term trend line may add trouble for the index.

Look for the 10 & 50 Day Moving Averages to cross bearishly through the 200 DMA over the next 6 sessions, and unless we get some bullish catalyst, it looks like we’ll see some consolidation with further declines in the near-term.

Any catalyst will need sufficient levels of volume behind it to become sustainable, so this week’s levels are nothing of note, unless we see more days with higher levels of advancing volume.

The $209.94/share support level has typically been won by the Buyers at a rate of 2.64:1, which will be a key area to watch should we see any declines through the three closer support levels that are all in a Seller zone.

Reference the table below for more information on IWM’s volume sentiment by price level.

IWM has support at the $214.01 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.29:1), $213.97 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.29:1), $213.96 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.29:1) & $209.94/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.64:1) price levels, with resistance at the $216.73 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, Buyers, 1.37:1), $217.79 (200 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.37:1), $217.85 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.37:1) & $219.60/share (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.37:1) price levels.

DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF squeaked out an advance of +0.97%, as the blue chip index remained resilient while the other majors declined, but participation was low.

Their RSI is approaching the neutral 50-mark at 48.52, while their MACD is bearish, but has flattened out in the wake of Friday’s session.

Volumes were -4.22% lower than their prior year’s average level (3,112,000 vs. 3,249,163), bucking the trend on volume & advance/decline, but not showing much sign of life.

Monday kicked the week off in spooky-spirit, with a spinning top bearish harami pattern that had the week’s highest volume & a close that was lower than the open, but the lower shadow indicated that there was more appetite lower vs. higher.

Tuesday also gave off a lack of confidence, as DIA tested even lower, before temporarily breaking through the 50 day moving average’s resistance & closing as a spinning top, in-line with the 50 DMA.

Wednesday showed the worst volume of the week, on a session that featured a gap up, a test slightly higher than Tuesday & then a decline that was slightly above Tuesday’s low, inspiring a slight bit of optimism.

Thursday gave an indication that we may see the 10 DMA be straddled as it bearishly approaches the 50 day moving average based on its upper shadow, which also broke the day prior’s high, but that bearish day was the second highest volume day of the week.

Partially due to the wide range & likely some intra-day profit taking, but it showed that folks were willing to see the 10 DMA for a brief vacation.

Friday had the third highest volume of the week, which is troubling as it shows that the 10 DMA’s resistance is proving temporarily resilient, as it sits <1% above the 50 DMA’s support, indicating price will likely straddle the 10 & consolidate, else decline unless we see a substantial uptick in volume on some advances.

It’s also worth looking at the unfilled gaps of early 2025; DIA is the blue chip index, everyone buys into them at the end of the day for the most part for safety, this is in part why they’ve weathered the storm so well.

After a -2.37% decline, per the table below, there is a bit of room for declines based on previous volume trends, which will be key areas to keep an eye on in the coming week(s).

DIA has support at the $435.90 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.75:1), $432.86 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.75:1), $430.88 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 4.5:1) & $427.60/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2.25:1) price levels, with resistance at the $438.80 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.6:1), $442.49 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 4:1), $449.41 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.6:0*) & $449.69/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.6:0*) price levels.

The Week Ahead

Monday the week kicks off with S&P Final U.S. Manufacturing PMI data at 9:45 am, followed by Construction Spending & ISM Manufacturing data at 10 am, Fed President Musalem speaking at 12:35 pm & Auto Sales data.

Avadel Pharmaceuticals, California Resources Corp., Fortrea, N-able, Nomad Foods, Plug Power, Sunnova Energy & Surgery Partners are all due to report earnings on Monday morning, followed by ADMA Biologies, Concentra Group Holdings, GigaCloud Technology, GitLab, NuScale Power, Okta, Repay Holdings & W&T Offshore after the closing bell.

Fed President Williams speaks at 2:20 pm Tuesday, with Fed President Barkin speaking at a time yet to be determined.

Tuesday morning begins with earnings from Target, AutoZone, Best Buy, EV Go, Genius Sports, Olaplex, ON Semiconductor, Paysafe & Sea Ltd., with AeroVironment, Box, ChargePoint Holdings, Credo Technology Group, Credo Technology Group, Evolus, Flutter Entertainment, Nordstrom, Ross Stores & Sociedad Quimica y Minera due to report after the closing bell.

Wednesday begins with ADP Employment data at 8:15 am, before S&P Final U.S. Services PMI at 9:45 am, Factory Orders & ISM Services data at 10 am & the Fed Beige Book at 2 pm.

Abercrombie & Fitch, Brown-Forman, CG Oncology, Dine Brands, Foot Locker, REV Group, Riskified, SmartRent, South Bow, Stratasys & Thor Industries are all reporting earnings Wednesday morning before the session opens, with Descartes, Kodiak Gas Services, LandBridge, Marvell Technology, MongoDB, Sleep Number, Veeva Systems, Victoria’s Secret, Yext, Zscaler & Zymeworks all scheduled to report after the close.

Initial Jobless Claims, U.S. Productivity (Final) & U.S. Trade Deficit data are all due Thursday at 8:30 am, followed by Wholesale Inventories data at 10 am, Fed Governor Waller speaking at 3:30 pm & Fed President Bostic speaking at 7 pm.

Thursday morning’s earnings include America’s Car-Mart, BJ’s Wholesale, BrightSpring Health Services, Burlington Stores, Canadian Natural Resources, Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, GMS, Macy’s, Marex Group, Stevanato Group, The Toro Company & Turning Point Brands, before Broadcom, Costco Wholesale, Asure Software, BigBear.ai, Cooper, Domo, El Pollo Loco, Funko, Gap, Guidewire Software, Hewlett Packard Enterprise, MeridianLink, Samsara & Smith & Wesson Brands after the session’s close.

Friday the week winds down with U.S. Jobs Report, U.S. Unemployment Rate, U.S. Hourly Wages & Hourly Wages Year-over-Year data at 8:30 am, before Fed Governor Bowman speaks at 10:15 am, Fed President Williams speaks at 10:45 am, Fed Governor Kugler speaks at 12:20 pm, Fed Chairman Powell speaking at 12:30 pm & Consumer Credit data at 3pm.

Algonquin Power & Utilities & Genesco are both due to report earnings after the session’s close.

See you back here next week!

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM OR DIA AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***