Highest Technical Rated S&P 500 Components Per 7/12/2024’s Close:
1 – NVDA
2 – VST
3 – GLW
4 – SMCI
5 – AVGO
6 – TER
7 – ANET
8 – FICO
9 – LLY
10 – TRGP
Lowest Technical Rated S&P 500 Components Per 7/12/2024’s Close:
1 – WBA
2 -NKE
3 – LULU
4 – EL
5 – ALB
6 – AAL
7 – PAYC
8 – WBD
9 – MOH
10 – LW
Highest Volume Rated S&P 500 Components Per 7/12/2024’s Close:
1 – WFC
2 – NWS
3 – BK
4 – C
5 – FAST
6 – RVTY
7 – JBHT
8 – ARE
9 – POOL
10 – DAL
Lowest Volume Rated S&P 500 Components Per 7/12/2024’s Close:
1 – FOX
2 – GL
3 – TSN
4 – KKR
5 – ANSS
6 – JBL
7 – PARA
8 – HPE
9 – ADM
10 – CI
Highest Technical Rated ETFs Per 7/12/2024’s Close:
1 – NVDL
2 – NVDU
3 – USD
4 – SOXL
5 – TSLL
6 – AAPU
7 – WGMI
8 – TECL
9 – TSLR
10 – TQQQ
Lowest Technical Rated ETFs Per 7/12/2024’s Close:
1 – NVD
2 – TSDD
3 – SOXS
4 – SSG
5 – UVIX
6 – NVDS
7 – BOIL
8 – LABD
9 – NVDD
10 – JDST
Highest Volume Rated ETFs Per 7/12/2024’s Close:
1 – JHDV
2 – XBJL
3 – TJUL
4 – QQQS
5 – CLOX
6 – OCTZ
7 – GCOR
8 – BBEU
9 – IBD
10 – DIVG
Lowest Volume Rated ETFs Per 7/12/2024’s Close:
1 – XHYE
2 – IQSM
3 – MSMR
4 – JANQ
5 – QVMM
6 – FMNY
7 – VETZ
8 – FEIG
9 – NVBT
10 – SEPW
Highest Technical Rated General Stocks Per 7/12/2024’s Close:
1 – TSSI
2 – ZAPP
3 – FTEL
4 – WTO
5 – CULTF
6 -KZIA
7 – EBS
8 – FCCN
9 – WGS
10 – SMR
Lowest Technical Rated General Stocks Per 7/12/2024’s Close:
1 – CNSP
2 – AVTE
3 – GWAV
4 – DSY
5 – CRKN
6 – CJET
7 – KAVL
8 – TGL
9 – AKAN
10 – AONC
Highest Volume Rated General Stocks Per 7/12/2024’s Close:
1 – SLG
2 – OUT
3 – VEV
4 – SNTG
5 – LTRY
6 – XRTX
7 – UNIT
8 – QLGN
9 – NISN
10 – NSA
Lowest Volume Rated General Stocks Per 7/12/2024’s Close:
1 – ACKRF
2 -PRKR
3 – PAIYY
4 – NROM
5 – CAPC
6 – BRSHF
7 – MACE
8 – GENGF
9 – DBLVF
10 – DTEGF
*** THE LIST ABOVE IS STRICTLY FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES – I MAY OR MAY NOT HAVE OR INITIATE A LONG, SHORT, OR LONG/SHORT POSITION IN ANY NAME ABOVE AT ANY TIME ***
Highest Technical Rated S&P 500 Components Per 7/11/2024’s Close:
1 – NVDA
2 – VST
3 – GLW
4 – AVGO
5 – TER
6 – SMCI
7 – ANET
8 – NTAP
9 – FICO
10 – CEG
Lowest Technical Rated S&P 500 Components Per 7/11/2024’s Close:
1 – WRB
2 – WBA
3 – NKE
4 – EL
5 – LULU
6 – ALB
7 – AAL
8 – PAYC
9 – MOH
10 – EPAM
Highest Volume Rated S&P 500 Components Per 7/11/2024’s Close:
1 – DAL
2 – COST
3 – CAG
4 – AAL
5 – COO
6 – BXP
7 – TSLA
8 – UAL
9 – CME
10 – DHI
Lowest Volume Rated S&P 500 Components Per 7/11/2024’s Close:
1 – FDS
2 – GL
3 – PARA
4 – NRG
5 – HPE
6 – DVA
7 – TSN
8 – DFS
9 – CTRA
10 – LYV
Highest Technical Rated ETFs Per 7/11/2024’s Close:
1 – NVDL
2 – NVDU
3 – USD
4 – SOXL
5 – FNGG
6 – AAPU
7 – JNUG
8 – TECL
9 – TSLL
10 – TQQQ
Lowest Technical Rated ETFs Per 7/11/2024’s Close:
1 – NVD
2 – TSDD
3 – SSG
4 – SOXS
5 – BOIL
6 – UVIX
7 – NVDS
8 – LABD
9 – JDST
10 – NVDD
Highest Volume Rated ETFs Per 7/11/2024’s Close:
1 – BHYB
2 – PWER
3 – LSGR
4 – ROE
5 – UTWY
6 – SPAQ
7 – MSTI
8 – CGSM
9 – ESGY
10 – ZTEN
Lowest Volume Rated ETFs Per 7/11/2024’s Close:
1 – USDU
2 – JOET
3 – SLVP
4 – PJIO
5 – VONE
6 – CLOI
7 – BOND
8 – KAPR
9 – IDOG
10 – IXN
Highest Technical Rated General Stocks Per 7/11/2024’s Close:
1 – KZIA
2 – AHFD
3 – TSSI
4 – AEHL
5 – FCCN
6 – FTEL
7 – CULTF
8 – ZAPP
9 – WGS
10 – WTO
Lowest Technical Rated General Stocks Per 7/11/2024’s Close:
1 – LSDIF
2 – AUSAF
3 – AETHF
4 – BRSHF
5 – NAVB
6 – MYLKF
7 – ECPN
8 – JUVAF
9 – HLVX
10 – BBIG
Highest Volume Rated General Stocks Per 7/11/2024’s Close:
1 – LCFY
2 – NEXI
3 – TWO
4 – FORD
5 – RNLX
6 – BDRX
7 – IFNNF
8 – SNTG
9 – CYN
10 – SLRX
Lowest Volume Rated General Stocks Per 7/11/2024’s Close:
1 – BCTF
2 – QTRHF
3 – PFLC
4 – EUBG
5 – BABYF
6 – WTER
7 – ENZN
8 – OTTW
9 – CKX
10 – WLGS
*** THE LIST ABOVE IS STRICTLY FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES – I MAY OR MAY NOT HAVE OR INITIATE A LONG, SHORT, OR LONG/SHORT POSITION IN ANY NAME ABOVE AT ANY TIME ***
The CBOE Volatility Index is often referred to by investors & market pundits as “fear & greed index”, as it provides a view of future volatility in the near-to-mid-term that is reported as an annualized figure.
At a high level, it is calculated as a measure of at & out-of-the-money S&P 500 index options put & call contracts for the next two standard expiration dates that have over eight days until their expiration (up until there are two consecutive strike prices with no posted bid-ask pricing).
The midpoint of the bid-ask spread for the nearest at-the-money options in the series is then used to ultimately create a forward price for a synthetic option for the S&P 500 & the implied volatility of the synthetic option is what is quoted as the VIX on television & in newspapers.
The implied volatility is an annualized estimate of how much the price of the underlying security (in this case the S&P 500’s synthetic option) may move based on how market participants are currently buying & selling the security.
With this in mind, it can be inferred that there is a strong link between optimism/pessimism related to the S&P 500’s performance & the VIX reading, as more options tend to be traded when investors need protection from volatility (buying puts or selling out-of-the-money calls) leading to a higher VIX reading when the S&P 500 declines.
Using SPY as a proxy (the S&P 500 ETF) the relationship between the VIX reading, daily SPY changes & changes in trading volume will be examined in the following article.
Note that the date range used for historic data was 7/10/2023 to the closing data of 7/9/2024, resulting in 251 sessions of usable data (given that the one-day implied S&P 500 move based on a VIX closing price is a reflection of tomorrow’s change, not that same day’s closing price).
Examining The Relationship Between The VIX, SPY & Daily Volume
The closing VIX reading for 7/10/2023 was 15.07, while SPY’s closing price that day was $433.595, implying that SPY would close within a range of +/-0.95% on 7/11/2023 (30 Day/1 Month implied move of +/-4.36%).
The following day SPY closed at $436.36, a change of +0.64%, meaning that it fell within the VIX’s predicted one day implied volatility.
SPY’s volume increased by 3.24% day-over-day, with 7/10/2023’s volume being 62,443,500 & 7/11/2023’s volume being 64,463,800.
As mentioned above, there were 251 total session’s used in this article (as it began being written before 7/10/2024’s close).
The VIX proved to be a fairly accurate calculation, as 81.3% (204 sessions) of the time in the past year the price of SPY closed within the range of the VIX reading, with 18.3% of the time (47 sessions) SPY outperforming it to the upside or the downside (recall that the VIX does not provide a direction of the movement, just the magnitude of it).
81.3% Of The Past Year’s Sessions The VIX Has Correctly Anticipated The Range Of Movement Of SPY For The Next Day’s Session, While 18.7% Of Sessions SPY Closed Outside Of The VIX’s One Day Implied Price Range
When looking at it from the perspective of a five day trading week, over the past year each week had about four days where SPY closed within the VIX’s predicted range, with roughly one day per week where it closed with a higher variance level than the VIX indicated (recall that it is predicting that moves will come in either direction, up or down).
When we isolate the times that SPY closed above or below the reading that the VIX implied, we find that 76.6% of the time (36 sessions) SPY had higher volumes than the previous day.
This would be expected, as often more volatile sessions are accompanied with higher trading volume, leaving 11 sessions (23.4%) occurring on days where the day-over-day volume change was lower than the day before.
In 76.6% Of Sessions In The Past Year When SPY Closed Outside Of The VIX’s Predicted One Day Range SPY’s Day-over-Day Volume Was Higher Than The Previous Day
The average volume that SPY traded at during the time outlined above was 71,520,866.27, making it worth digging into how each sessions’ average volume fared in relation to SPY’s performance & the VIX.
In total, 111, or 44.2% of all days traded above that average volume quoted above, while 140 sessions (55.8%) traded below it.
For the sessions where SPY traded at a greater daily variance than what was predicted by the VIX, 80.85% of sessions (38) occurred on volumes that were above the annual average.
19.15% of sessions (9) where SPY traded outside of the predicted range of the VIX occurred on sessions with below average volume.
Looking at days where SPY closed within the range that the VIX predicted things look quite different, with only 35.8% of sessions (73) having above average volume & 64.2% of sessions (131) occurring with lower than average volume.
This can in part be explained by the dramatically larger sample size & the nature of the calculation, but was worth examining to see how the numbers fell in line with the other data points listed.
Comparing The One-Day Returns Of SPY Relative To The VIX’s One-Day Implied Range Of S&P 500 Movement In Relation To Each Session’s Volumes Vs. The Annual Average Volume
Tying It All Together
As we can see, the VIX does a pretty solid job of predicting the one day range that SPY prices will land in the following day.
While the performance may change if we changed the range to more than one year, 251 sessions is significant enough to draw conclusions from.
One thing to note is that while there has been some volatility in that sample size, the largest peak to trough drawdown was -9.5%, so expanding the sample size to include more years with greater volatility would likely change the results (such as past 2022, when there was a -26.6% decline peak to trough at the beginning of the year).
This is something that should be kept in mind in the event that there is increased volatility compared to the past year if referencing these results.
It is certainly something to keep in the back of one’s mind when watching intra-day sessions that have volumes that are higher than average out of the gate at the open/by midday, although other nearby candles & possible pattern formations should also be assessed before using it to make live predictions.
As always, this is not intended to be financial advice, just some observations about past market performance.
*** THIS IS NOT INTENDED TO SERVE AS FINANCIAL ADVICE, BUT RATHER AN ANALYSIS OF PAST MARKET BEHAVIOR – AS ALWAYS, DO YOUR OWN DUE DILIGENCE BEFORE PARTICIPATING IN FINANCIAL MARKETS ***
Highest Technical Rated S&P 500 Components Per 7/10/2024’s Close:
1 – NVDA
2 – VST
3 – GLW
4 – TSLA
5 – AVGO
6 – TER
7 – SMCI
8 – KLAC
9 – AMAT
10 – ANET
Lowest Technical Rated S&P 500 Components Per 7/10/2024’s Close:
1 – WBA
2 – NKE
3 – LULU
4 – EL
5 – PAYC
6 – ALB
7 – EPAM
8 – DAY
9 – POOL
10 – MOH
Highest Volume Rated S&P 500 Components Per 7/10/2024’s Close:
1 – CTLT
2 – KMX
3 – CNP
4 – DRI
5 – PTC
6 – MA
7 – GLW
8 – DECK
9 – AMD
10 – BDX
Lowest Volume Rated S&P 500 Components Per 7/10/2024’s Close:
1 – GL
2 – AES
3 – RMD
4 – JNPR
5 – COR
6 – ZBH
7 – TRGP
8 – MRK
9 – GM
10 – SPG
Highest Technical Rated ETFs Per 7/10/2024’s Close:
1 – NVDL
2 – NVDU
3 – USD
4 – SOXL
5 – TSLL
6 – TSLR
7 – FNGG
8 – TECL
9 – AAPU
10 – TQQQ
Lowest Technical Rated ETFs Per 7/10/2024’s Close:
1 – NVD
2 – TSDD
3 – SOXS
4 – SSG
5 – NVDS
6 – UVIX
7 – BOIL
8 – NVDD
9 – TECS
10 – MSOX
Highest Volume Rated ETFs Per 7/10/2024’s Close:
1 – SPCZ
2 – KOKU
3 – PUTD
4 – WEIX
5 – JANP
6 – VETZ
7 – CGRO
8 – XVOL
9 – IDEC
10 – USVN
Lowest Volume Rated ETFs Per 7/10/2024’s Close:
1 – SCHM
2 – FEDZ
3 – TDTF
4 – FTEC
5 – DUSB
6 – VEGI
7 – PGX
8 – SMCF
9 – USD
10 – YYY
Highest Technical Rated General Stocks Per 7/10/2024’s Close:
1 – FTEL
2 – ZAPP
3 – TSSI
4 – AEHL
5 – FCCN
6 – WTO
7 – WGS
8 – EBS
9 – MEDS
10 – MDIA
Lowest Technical Rated General Stocks Per 7/10/2024’s Close:
1 – LSDIF
2 – BRSHF
3 – MIMOQ
4 – CNCT
5 – NAVB
6 – JUVAF
7 – HLVX
8 – MAXN
9 – FTCHF
10 – CDT
Highest Volume Rated General Stocks Per 7/10/2024’s Close:
1 – KZIA
2 – OUT
3 – SLG
4 – GXAI
5 – AP
6 – NAAS
7 – SEEL
8 – MAMA
9 – MRIN
10 – WHLR
Lowest Volume Rated General Stocks Per 7/10/2024’s Close:
1 – MGRX
2 – ALUR
3 – RSTN
4 – MINM
5 – IINN
6 – GROM
7 – BROG
8 – PIK
9 – UURAF
10 – CCM
*** THE LIST ABOVE IS STRICTLY FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES – I MAY OR MAY NOT HAVE OR INITIATE A LONG, SHORT, OR LONG/SHORT POSITION IN ANY NAME ABOVE AT ANY TIME ***
SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF gained +1.91%, as weak volumes continued to plague the major index ETFs, while the VIX closed the week out at 12.48, implying a one day move of +/-0.79% & a one month implied move of +/-3.61%.
SPY ETF – SPDR S&P 500 ETF’s Technical Performance Over The Past Year
Volumes were well below average for the ninth consecutive week, coming in at -46.16% below the year prior’s average volume (38,725,950 vs. 71,930,498), which as we’ve noted each week is an area of increasing concern.
Despite the Fourth of July holiday & the half day trading session on the third reducing the week by ~30% there was still frothy light volume for now the ninth consecutive week.
While it is summertime, the low levels are still indicative of fear & reluctance to dive into markets while most of major indexes sit near all-time highs.
Monday signaled that the week ahead was likely in line with most peoples’ expectations, weak volume, but advancing.
A dragonfly doji set the stage for SPY to climb for the rest of the week, although the open & close were relatively in line with the 10 day moving average, which while it indicates that there is some strength in it as a support level, should be a cause of concern.
The rest of the week (which again, was 70% of a regular week in terms of the hours the market was open) continued to climb above the 10 DMA, but on volumes that looked more like the attendance at a kindergarten soccer game vs. a publicly traded ETF following the S&P 500.
Their RSI has climbed back into overbought territory after the surprise advances of the past week & currently sits at 76.97, while their MACD has crossed over bullishly, but is still tightly hugging the signal line.
While folks will say there is a stronger trend when candles are covering a wider range (particularly with little to no shadows), there is very little conviction behind the recent price movements.
This upcoming week has limited data releases aside from the CPI/PPI prints on Thursday & Friday, but earnings season is revived with the first of the big banks scheduled to report on Friday.
Indicators & oscillators suggest that the time for a mid-summer cool off is upon us, and the biggest question for most right now is what’s going to cause it?
JPM’s chart’s evening star pattern seems to think so (per Sunday night reading, vacation time so this won’t be published until Wednesday PM) & bank stocks control the spigot that supplies the market hose (also hat tip to Jaime Dimon as this may be the first time a weekly post has featured an individual stock name).
JPM’s Technical Performance Over The Past Year
Not much has changed in terms of what to look at for SPY from last week’s note given the nature of how it traded & on the shorter time frame.
While they managed a new all-time high, the amount of conviction & sentiment behind the move was minimal at best & it appears that we’re skating on thin ice.
Based on the prolonged low volumes (9 weeks now), it is hard to imagine much of a catalyst given where markets stand now that would be able to power SPY & co. much higher in the near-term.
As noted last week, it’s still more of a question of whether we have a small consolidation or outright correct.
Volatility decreased slightly last week, but again, not much has changed from last week in terms of what to keep an eye on.
SPY has support at the $546.86 (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $531.35 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $528.50 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $522.92/share (Volume Sentiment: Even, 1:1) price levels, with resistance at the $555.05/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price level.
SPY ETF’s Price Level:Volume Sentiment Over The Past 1-2 Years
QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF that tracks the NASDAQ 100, had the strongest week of the major four index ETFs, advancing 3.56%.
QQQ ETF – Invesco QQQ Trust ETF’s Technical Performance Over The Past Year
Their RSI has also trended into overbought territory & is currently 76.64, while their MACD has crossed over bullishly in the past week.
Volumes were -45.52% below the year prior’s average volume (24,538,100 vs. 45,038,444), as much like SPY & the other major index ETFs, everybody’s moved.
The primary difference between QQQ’s chart & SPY’s chartis the hammer candle from Monday’s session.
This indicated more conviction behind the move higher, contributing to QQQ being the strongest performing major index ETF of the four.
With the fluffy volume last week’s primary areas to look at are all still in play, perhaps we learn that last week was a silent squeeze.
For those that missed last week’s note, the strength of the 10 day moving average will set the stage for the next 3-4 weeks for QQQ & SPY.
The new all-time highs only make the declines more troubling, given that the primary support level is the 10 DMA, which is moving higher by its nature & becoming more decoupled from the regular price point support levels.
There is next to no volume strength at these levels, making a consolidation easily able to turn into a more serious decline.
CPI/PPI aren’t necessarily what market participants are holding in as high of regard for an inflation read vs. PCE, so what happens during earnings calls starting Friday will likely be what queues an issue, as it seems unlikely that folks have been holding out this much eagerly anticipating earnings reports to dive back into the pool.
For last week’s post & the areas to continue watching see here.
QQQ has support at the $482.99 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $459.85 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $457.65 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $448.63/share (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels, with resistance at the $496.60/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price level.
QQQ ETF’s Price Level:Volume Sentiment Over The Past 1-2 Years
IWM ETF – iShares Russell 2000 ETF’s Technical Performance Over The Past Year
Their RSI is trending downward from the neutral level & sits currently at 47.35, while their MACD has been bullish, but remains tightly hugging the signal line due to the recent consolidation range IWM has traded in.
Volumes were -46.43% below average compared with the year prior (17,881,775 vs. 33,382,304), as even the small cap index can’t escape the lazy summer participation.
As has been noted every week for some time now, IWM & DIA charts have decoupled from SPY & QQQ for a while now, as AI names & other major tech components of the former indexes have helped keep them moving higher, while the former have spent more time consolidating.
What becomes more troubling about this is that since early May IWM has been consolidating alongside DIA, while SPY & QQQ have continued marching higher.
In the event of a consolidation or correction in SPY & QQQ, a large question becomes whether that will cause an equal reaction from IWM & DIA, or if it will cause some sort of pivot into their components & they will avoid major losses.
Monday last week began on a bearish note with prices opening mid-way through Friday’s range, testing below the support of both the 10 & 50 day moving averages, before ultimately settling just above the 10 DMA, but below the 50 DMA on the week’s highest volume session.
Tuesday made an attempt to break back above the 50 DMA, but was unsuccessful & closed just beneath it, but cracks were shown in IWM as prices temporarily dipped beneath the 10 DMA as well.
The weakness was confirmed with Wednesday & Friday’s sessions, when on Wednesday prices opened in line with the 50 day moving average before bounding higher to above the 50 day moving average, only to close lower, closer to in-line with the prior day’s close on the weakest volume of the week.
It should be noted that Wednesday was a half-day & should it have been a full session it was possibly going to be the highest volume of the week, but the candle closed as what would have been a shooting star if it occurred in a true uptrend, indicating bearish feeling.
The trouble continued into the close of the week when prices opened on a gap down in-line with the 10 DMA, only to temporarily dip above it before testing far below it & closing beneath the support of the 10 DMA.
The strength of the support zone between $197-198.60 will be a key area of focus in the coming weeks now that prices have broken down beneath the 10 & 50 day moving averages & while we await more meaningful volume to indicate strength of sentiment of IWM traders.
For last week’s post & the areas to continue watching see here.
IWM has support at the $198.60 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.47:1), $198.35 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.47:1), $197.41 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.38:1) & $195.35/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.06:1) price levels, with resistance at the $201.29 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.08:1), $202.30 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.08:1), $203.68 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.08:1) & $204.40/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.83:1) price level.
IWM ETF’s Price Level:Volume Sentiment Over The Past 1-2 Years
DIA ETF – SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF’s Technical Performance Over The Past Year
Their RSI is trending towards overbought (70) & currently sits at 60.18. while their MACD has stayed bullish following their recent consolidation.
Volumes were -38.48% below average compared with the year before’s average volumes (2,144,550 vs. 3,485,855), where it appears investors were doing the bare minimum to keep it afloat above the support of the 10 DMA.
Monday began DIA’s week on a weak outlook, where despite the week’s highest volumes prices were unable to crack above the prior Friday’s high & ultimately closed below where they opened just in-line with the 10 DMA’s support.
Tuesday opened below the 10 DMA, but was able to rally & push higher to close higher, but it should be viewed with a skeptical eye as despite completing the bullish engulfing 2 day pattern, the day’s wide range was not supported by the low volume.
Wednesday came in bearish for DIA, opening higher but showing that there was still more downside appetite than upside, as it tested the support of the 10 DMA, but ultimately closed just beneath Tuesday’s close.
It should be noted that the downside volume on Wednesday was slightly less than the upside volume on Monday, calling into question/further confirming the skeptical eye mentioned regarding Tuesday’s price action.
Friday ended the week on a further note of uncertainty, as the case for the bulls heading into the weekend was that the open-close price action was concentrated at the top of the day’s candle, but the reality of it was that the high of the day failed to break out of the recent high-range & the low of the day broke through the 10 DMA’s support.
The coming week’s performance will hinge upon whether or not that high range can be broken out of & or if the support of the 10 & 50 DMAs will be broken to the downside.
Their recent ascending triangle forming indicates that there is more appetite at the top of their recent trading range, but the lackluster volumes of the past couple of months don’t provide as much confirmation as one would like to see.
For last week’s post & the areas to continue watching see here.
DIA has support at the $392.15 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 3.5:1), $391.04 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.08:1), $390.24 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.08:1) & $388.91/share (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.08:1) price levels, with resistance at the $395.59 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 3.5:1), $397.13 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.6:0*) & $399.83/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.6:0*) price level.
DIA ETF’s Price Level:Volume Sentiment Over The Past 3-4 Years
The Week Ahead
Next week begins on a slow note with Consumer Credit data released on Monday at 3pm.
Greenbrier reports earnings on Monday morning before the opening bell.
Tuesday brings us NFIB Optimism Index data at 6 am.
Helen of Troy reports earnings before Tuesday’s opening bell, before SMART Global reports after the close of trading.
Wholesale Inventories data is scheduled to be released Wednesday at 10 am.
Wednesday’s earnings calls include AZZ, PriceSmart &WD-40, all due to report after the closing bell.
Things heat up on Thursday with Initial Jobless Claims, Consumer Price Index, XPI Year-over-Year, Core CPI & Core CPI Year-Over-Year data at 8:30 am, followed by St. Louis Fed President Musalem speaking at 1pm &Monthly U.S. Federal Budget data at 2 pm.
Thursday morning kicks off with earnings from Delta Air Lines & Pepsi Co.
Friday the week wraps up with Producer Price Index, PPI Year-over-Year, Core PPI & Core PPI Year-over-Year data at 8:30 am, followed by Consumer Sentiment (prelim) data at 10 am.
Big bank earnings come back to town Friday, starting with JP Morgan Chase, Bank of New York Mellon, CitiGroup & Wells Fargo, with Fastenal also scheduled to report before the opening bell.
See you back here next week!
*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM OR DIA AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***
Highest Technical Rated S&P 500 Components Per 7/9/2024’s Close:
1 – NVDA
2 – VST
3 – TSLA
4 – GLW
5 – AVGO
6 – ANET
7 – SMCI
8 – AMAT
9 – TER
10 – KLAC
Lowest Technical Rated S&P 500 Components Per 7/9/2024’s Close:
1 – WBA
2 – ALB
3 – NKE
4 – LULU
5 – FRCB
6 – PAYC
7 – EL
8 – DAY
9 – EPAM
10 – POOL
Highest Volume Rated S&P 500 Components Per 7/9/2024’s Close:
1 – SW
2 – GLW
3 – PTC
4 – HBAN
5 – INTC
6 – GS
7 – ALB
8 – FITB
9 – MLM
10 – NOW
Lowest Volume Rated S&P 500 Components Per 7/9/2024’s Close:
1 – GL
2 – ALLE
3 – KKR
4 – WDC
5 – ADI
6 – DXCM
7 – J
8 – RSG
9 – VRSN
10 – VLTO
Highest Technical Rated ETFs Per 7/9/2024’s Close:
1 – NVDL
2 – NVDU
3 – USD
4 – TSLL
5 – TSLR
6 – SOXL
7 – FNGG
8 – TSLT
9 – TECL
10 – TQQQ
Lowest Technical Rated ETFs Per 7/9/2024’s Close:
1 – NVD
2 – TSDD
3 – SSG
4 – SOXS
5 – UVIX
6 – NVDS
7 – BOIL
8 – NVDD
9 – MSOX
10 – UVXY
Highest Volume Rated ETFs Per 7/9/2024’s Close:
1 – GLOW
2 – HYKE
3 – BCYIF
4 – IQSM
5 – HLGE
6 – IWLG
7 – SPXN
8 – WABF
9 – FLUD
10 – UNIY
Lowest Volume Rated ETFs Per 7/9/2024’s Close:
1 – VEGN
2 – DGRE
3 – TCHI
4 – PSEP
5 – XSD
6 – BAMG
7 – APRQ
8 – SCHY
9 – JXI
10 – EFAX
Highest Technical Rated General Stocks Per 7/9/2024’s Close:
1 – ZAPP
2 – FTEL
3 – TSSI
4 – SISI
5 – KOSS
6 – MDIA
7 – FCCN
8 – WTO
9 – RGS
10 – MEDS
Lowest Technical Rated General Stocks Per 7/9/2024’s Close:
1 – LSDIF
2 – EVLO
3 – RAASY
4 – BRSHF
5 – JUVAF
6 – MIMOQ
7 – NAVB
8 – TMPOQ
9 – HLVX
10 – FTCHF
Highest Volume Rated General Stocks Per 7/9/2024’s Close:
1 – SNGX
2 – JNVR
3 – ATNF
4 – TWO
5 – OUT
6 – LGMK
7 – QURE
8 – ZVSA
9 – BYFC
10 – GVH
Lowest Volume Rated General Stocks Per 7/9/2024’s Close:
1 – NRC
2 – CX
3 – ABG
4 – SVC
5 – BMO
6 – CSGP
7 – FLGC
8 – LZ
9 – ACHR
10 – WTO
*** THE LIST ABOVE IS STRICTLY FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES – I MAY OR MAY NOT HAVE OR INITIATE A LONG, SHORT, OR LONG/SHORT POSITION IN ANY NAME ABOVE AT ANY TIME ***
XLK, the Technology Sector Select SPDR Fund ETF has had a strong year, advancing +32.41% since one year ago, including a 42.91% gain since its 52-week low in October of 2023 & it sits just 2% below its 52-week high set in June of 2024.
This great performance has been powered primarily by the boom in technology company names that we have seen over the past year, in particular ones associated with Artificial Intelligence.
XLK’s ten largest holdings include Microsoft Corp. NVIDIA Corp., Apple Inc., Broadcom Inc., Advanced Micro Devices, Adobe Inc., Salesforce Inc., Oracle Corp., Qualcomm Inc. & Applied Materials Inc.
While there has been a bit of a cool down period following the NVDA stock split recently many investors are still bullish on the space & given that the recent chart for NVDA & XLK look strikingly similar it is worth taking a closer look at volume sentiment at their recent price levels.
With markets near all-time highs but looking set to cool off there has been a lot of talk recently about bonds, making it worth diving into the strength of XLK’s support & resistance levels.
This will provide an understanding about how investors have previously behaved when XLK was at these pivotal price points & may shed insight into how their future behavior may play out if these levels are revisited.
Below is a brief review of XLK’s recent technical performance, followed by the volume sentiments for each of the price levels that they have traded at over the past 2-3 years.
It is not intended to serve as financial advice, but rather as an additional tool to reference while performing your own due diligence into XLK.
Technical Analysis Of XLK, The Technology Sector Select SPDR Fund ETF
XLK ETF – Technology Sector Select SPDR Fund ETF’s Technical Performance Over The Past Year
Their RSI is trending back towards overbought levels & sits currently at 64.93, while their MACD has been bearish since they began to fall from hitting a new all-time high in mid-June.
Volumes this past week were -24.51% below average compared to the year prior’s average (4,827,580 vs. 6,395,214.34) indicating that there is severe hesitancy on the part of market participants to dive into XLK at these high price levels.
Another troubling story that volume is telling currently is that most of the higher volume sessions of the past eight weeks have been declining sessions.
Last Monday was the biggest weakness signal for XLK, as just two sessions after hitting a new all-time high the week kicked off with a gap down that opened in line with the 10 day moving average, tried to stay afloat above it, but ultimately sank lower on the session & settled -4.23% below the all-time high on high declining volume.
The next day opened midway through Monday’s wide range candle, tested a bit lower but bulls didn’t allow prices to reach Monday’s closed & wound up driving prices higher to close around the 10 DMA’s resistance.
Wednesday showed that there was severe uncertainty in the market, but that the 10 DMA’s resistance was in tact, as a long-legged doji was the result of trading that day for XLK.
Thursday continued the same theme, as the session resulted in a spinning top whose real body is located on the lower end of the candle’s range & whose upper shadow was unable to break through the resistance of the 10 day moving average.
Last Friday & yesterday’s sessions are where things become really shaky however.
On Friday XLK opened on a gap up & prices were able to break above the 10 day moving average & they ran above $230/share before breaking down completely in a risk-off into the weekend play on the highest volumes of the week.
The resulting candle resembled a shooting star, with the exception of there being limited strength in the preceding uptrend.
Yesterday (Monday 7/1)’s candle looks almost identical but inverted, resembling a hanging man with a slight upper shadow.
Monday’s prices opened just above Friday’s close, tested far lower to the $223-range before recovering & closing the day just above the 10 day moving average’s resistance.
The troubling part of this is that while Monday was able to close above the 10 DMA, the day’s volume was rather weak for the extent of the price range covered for the day, which is not an indication of strength.
As to be expected, XLK’s Average True Range has been climbing in the wake of the declines from the all-time high, and should be set to continue higher in the near-term.
The price pressure is currently descending, which makes it a great time to review the strength of XLK’s support levels & to assess historic buyer & seller activity at them in an effort to understand what may happen if they’re tested again in the near-term.
XLK, The Technology Sector Select SPDR Fund ETF’s Price Level:Volume Sentiment Broken Down
The top table below shows the support & resistance levels of XLK ETF from the past year’s chart, as well as their price level:volume sentiment at each, using Monday’s closing price.
The moving averages are denoted with bold.
The next charts show the volume sentiment at each individual price level XLK has traded at over the past ~2-3 years.
Beneath them is a copy & pasteable list of the same data, where the support/resistance levels are denoted in bold.
All ratios with “0” in the denominator are denoted with a “*”.
NULL values are price levels that had limited trading volume, whether it be due to gaps, quick advances or they are at price extremes; in the event that they are retested & there is more data they would have a distinct “Buyers”, “Sellers” or “Even” title.
This is not intended as financial advice, but rather another tool to consider when performing your own research & due diligence on XLK ETF or any of its components.
XLK ETF’s Price Level:Volume Sentiment Over The Past ~2 Years At Support & Resistance Levels Of The Past Year
XLK ETF’s Price Level:Volume Sentiment Over The Past ~2 Years
XLK ETF’s Price Level:Volume Sentiment Over The Past ~2 Years
XLK ETF’s Price Level:Volume Sentiment Over The Past ~2 Years
$236 – NULL – 0:0*, +3.54% From Current Price Level
$232 – NULL – 0:0*, +1.78% From Current Price Level
$228 – NULL – 0:0*, +0.03% From Current Price Level
$224 – NULL – 0:0*, -1.73% From Current Price Level – Current Price Box & 10 Day Moving Average**
$220 – NULL – 0:0*, -3.48% From Current Price Level
$216 – NULL – 0:0*, -5.24% From Current Price Level
$212 – NULL – 0:0*, -6.99% From Current Price Level – 50 Day Moving Average*
$208 – Buyers – 3.25:1., -8.75% From Current Price Level
$204 – Buyers – 1.19:1, -10.5% From Current Price Level
$200 – Buyers – 1.18:1, -12.26% From Current Price Level
$198 – Sellers – 1.05:1, -13.14% From Current Price Level
$196 – Sellers – 1.12:1, -14.01% From Current Price Level
$194 – Buyers – 1.67:1, -14.89% From Current Price Level – 200 Day Moving Average*
$192 – Sellers – 1.15:1, -15.77% From Current Price Level
$190 – Buyers – 4.67:1, -16.64% From Current Price Level
$188 – Buyers – 1.67:1, -17.52% From Current Price Level
$186 – Buyers – 1.8:1, -18.4% From Current Price Level
$184 – Buyers – 3.33:1, -19.28% From Current Price Level
$182 – Sellers – 1.31:1, -20.15% From Current Price Level
$180 – Buyers – 1.17:1, -21.03% From Current Price Level
$178 – Buyers – 1.56:1, -21.91% From Current Price Level
$176 – Buyers – 5:1, -22.79% From Current Price Level
$174 – Sellers – 1.2:1. -23.66% From Current Price Level
$172 – Buyers – 1.43:1, -24.54% From Current Price Level
$170 – Buyers – 1.77:1, -25.42% From Current Price Level
$168 – Buyers – 2.78:1, -26.3% From Current Price Level
$166 – Sellers – 1.23:1, -27.17% From Current Price Level
$164 – Buyers – 1.3:1, -28.05% From Current Price Level
$162 – Buyers – 1.63:1, -28.93% From Current Price Level
$160 – Buyers – 1.45:1, -29.81% From Current Price Level
$158 – Buyers – 1.18:1, -30.68% From Current Price Level
$156 – Buyers – 2.1:0*, -31.56% From Current Price Level
$154 – Sellers – 2.79:1, -32.44% From Current Price Level
$152 – Buyers – 1.4:1, -33.32% From Current Price Level
$150 – Sellers – 1.55:1, -34.19% From Current Price Level
$148 – Sellers – 1.04:1, -35.07% From Current Price Level
$146 – Sellers – 1.61:1, -35.95% From Current Price Level
$144 – Buyers – 1.13:1, -36.83% From Current Price Level
$142 – Buyers – 1.07:1, -37.7% From Current Price Level
$140 – Sellers – 1.36:1, -38.58% From Current Price Level
$138 – Sellers – 1.03:1, -39.46% From Current Price Level
$136 – Sellers – 1.46:1, -40.34% From Current Price Level
$134 – Buyers – 1.52:1, -41.21% From Current Price Level
$132 – Sellers – 1.29:1, -42.09% From Current Price Level
$130 – Buyers – 1.57:1, -42.97% From Current Price Level
$128 – Sellers – 1.96:1, -43.84% From Current Price Level
$126 – Buyers – 1.05:1, -44.72% From Current Price Level
$124 – Buyers – 1.2:1, -45.6% From Current Price Level
$122 – Buyers – 1.22:1, -46.48% From Current Price Level
$120 – Sellers – 2.36:1, -47.35% From Current Price Level
$118 – Buyers – 1.1:1, -48.23% From Current Price Level
$116 – Sellers – 2.4:0*, -49.11% From Current Price Level
$114 – Sellers – 2.7:0*, -49.99% From Current Price Level
$112 – NULL – 0:0*, -50.86% From Current Price Level
$110 – NULL – 0:0*, -51.74% From Current Price Level
*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN XLK AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***
Highest Technical Rating S&P 500 Components As Of 7/1/2024’s Close:
1 – NVDA
2 – VST
3 – ANET
4 – CRWD
5 – AVGO
6 – NTAP
7 – TER
8 – TRGP
9 – LLY
10 – KLAC
Lowest Technical Rating S&P 500 Components As Of 7/1/2024’s Close:
1 – WBA
2 – NKE
3 – PAYC
4 – EL
5 – ALB
6 – WBD
7 – LULU
8 – EPAM
9 – BLDR
10 – ENPH
Highest Volume Rating S&P 500 Components As Of 7/1/2024’s Close:
1 – NKE
2 – WRK
3 – HCA
4 – WBA
5 – HSIC
6 – TSLA
7 – STE
8 – ZBH
9 – GD
10 – OTIS
Lowest Volume Rating S&P 500 Components As Of 7/1/2024’s Close:
1 – HES
2 – KKR
3 – CMI
4 – GL
5 – AKAM
6 – EPAM
7 – JNPR
8 – ADM
9 – NEM
10 – IR
Highest Technical Rating ETFs As Of 7/1/2024’s Close:
1 – JDST
2 – NVDL
3 – USD
4 – WGMI
5 – SOXL
6 – FNGG
7 – DAPP
8 – TECL
9 – BKCH
10 – TQQQ
Lowest Technical Rating ETFs As Of 7/1/2024’s Close:
1 – NVD
2 – UVIX
3 – SSG
4 – NVDS
5 – SOXS
6 – BOIL
7 – TSDD
8 – UVXY
9 – MSOX
10 – TECS
Highest Volume Rating ETFs As Of 7/1/2024’s Close:
1 – ADVE
2 – GVUS
3 – APRZ
4 – TSEC
5 – JULZ
6 – GVIP
7 – IBIA
8 – EMCC
9 – BBSC
10 – KPRO
Lowest Volume Rating ETFs As Of 7/1/2024’s Close:
1 – PTRB
2 – XDJL
3 – BSMO
4 – GQRE
5 – FYT
6 – SPSM
7 – XLG
8 – JPIB
9 – RSPT
10 – XMHQ
Highest Technical Rating Stocks As Of 7/1/2024’s Close:
1 – FCCN
2 – FTEL
3 – INSG
4 – LSF
5 – TSSI
6 – RGS
7 – WGS
8 – VIVC
9 – WULF
10 – MEDS
Lowest Technical Rating Stocks As Of 7/1/2024’s Close:
1 – EVLO
2 – SDCCQ
3 – NAVB
4 – JUVAF
5 – BBIG
6 – WTER
7 – GDSI
8 – NVTAQ
9 – EFTR
10 – BJDX
Highest Volume Stocks As Of 7/1/2024’s Close:
1 – DTSS
2 – SLG
3 – SNTI
4 – CSLR
5 – OUT
6 – SBET
7 – WHLR
8 – MAMA
9 – LPTV
10 – XTIA
Lowest Volume Rating Stocks As Of 7/1/2024’s Close:
1 – WGS
2 -MLP
3 -THRM
4 -SEER
5 -FMAO
6 -CLSK
7 -PKST
8 – GTLB
9 -ORRF
10 -TBBB
*** THE LIST ABOVE IS STRICTLY FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES – I MAY OR MAY NOT HAVE OR INITIATE A LONG, SHORT, OR LONG/SHORT POSITION IN ANY NAME ABOVE AT ANY TIME ***
SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF tread water this week while the weak volume trend continued for an eighth consecutive week, dipping -0.05%, while the VIX closed the week at 12.44, indicating a one day implied move of +/-0.78% & a one month implied move of +/-3.6%.
SPY ETF – SPDR S&P 500 ETF’s Technical Performance Over The Past Year
Their RSI is currently at 65.99 & trending back out of overbought territory due to Friday’s declining session after having spent a couple of weeks above 70, while their MACD has crossed over bearishly, indicating near-term declines are on the horizon.
Volumes were -36.35% below average compared to the prior year (46,059,666 vs. 72,363,608), indicating a severe hesitancy on the part of market participants & signaling flashes of fear.
This is compounded by the fact that for eight straight weeks there have been severely low volumes, which amounts to ~17% of the annualized average volume calculation, indicating that it has been dragged down even lower than it appears as higher volume sessions from last year have been dropped off from close to one fifth of the calculation.
Last week’s volume was low, but looked more acceptable due to the shortened trading week being reduced by 20% by day count, but another troubling element to the recent volume picture is that most of the higher volume days of June were declining sessions.
In fact, the last time there was an advancing session that had more volume than the highest volume sessions of June (which were declining sessions) came on May 31,2024.
Couple this with the narrow daily trading ranges shown by the real bodies & shadows of the candlesticks for the month of June , particularly towards the end of the month & it begins to paint a not so rosy picture for near-term stock performance.
Monday opened the week up with a negative note, as the session opened close to Friday’s close, tested a bit higher as shown by the candle’s upper shadow & then ultimately dropped down to test the support of the 10 day moving average, but managed to close the day above it.
Monday’s volume was also the second highest of the week, as the strongest volume sessions of the week came in the form of declining days.
The risk-averse theme continued into Tuesday, where an even lower volume day hugged the 10 DMA but resulted in a slight advance & the strength of the support level was maintained.
Wednesday opened right at the 10 DMA & was able to break out below it temporarily during the session, but by the end of the day bulls stepped back in to force a slight gain for the day, but between the low volume & the narrow price range of the day it did not inspire confidence in market participants.
Thursday was able to open near the close of Wednesday & stay above the 10 DMA.
However, Thursday’s session had the week’s lowest volume & narrowest trading range, setting the stage perfectly for Friday’s risk-off into the weekend move.
Friday set the tone for the coming week or two, as the day resulted in the week’s widest price daily price trading range on the week’s highest volume.
While there was a push to the upside to reach a new all-time high, all hopes quickly deflated after a move to the downside broke through the support of the 10 DMA & the session’s price also closed below it.
Friday’s candle bearishly engulfed Thursday’s, setting the stage for more cooling off in the next week(s).
SPY’s Average True Range began to advance late in the week due to the strength of Friday’s move & volume & it appears that it will continue to climb higher in the coming week or two as we see an increase in volatility.
This week will be a relatively quiet week on the economic data & earnings, however there will be a handful of Fed speakers, including Chairman Powell on Tuesday morning in Portugal.
With this in mind & the fact that there will be a half day of trading Wednesday & the market closed Thursday for July 4th all eyes should be on volumes this week, in particular looking at the relationship between how they stack up against recent full trading weeks’ volumes.
This week will feature ~30% less trading hours than usual, so while volumes should be expected to be lower than average, how much lower they are & in what direction the markets trade will be a strong tell about how the month of July is likely to go for SPY & the other major index ETFs.
Additionally, keep an eye on how prices behave as they approach the $540/share mark for SPY, as that is the gateway to the most recent gap up.
While the window itself should serve as a form of support, once it begins to fill it will provide additional insight into whether SPY will consolidate in the near-term or if there will be a more aggressive decline from Friday’s close.
The 10 day moving average is applying downward price pressure now & if there is a movement through the gap of early June we will be keeping an eye on the nearest support levels (including the 50 day moving average) which have not really been tested much & have limited trading volume around them.
In the event prices do get close to the 50 DMA & or should they break below them, a head & shoulders pattern may be forming with the left shoulder being the end of March/early April.
In the event of that happening, it is more than likely not to be this week due to the shortened nature of it, but it is worth keeping in the back of your mind for the future.
SPY has support at the $531.35 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $524.41 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $522.92 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $516.69/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.5:1) price levels, with resistance at the $544.65 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $550.28/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price level.
SPY ETF’s Price Level:Volume Sentiment Over The Past 1-2 Years
QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF that tracks the NASDAQ 100 also was treading water with light volumes, closing -0.06% down for the week since last Friday’s close.
QQQ ETF – Invesco QQQ Trust ETF’s Technical Performance Over The Past Year
Their RSI is currently at 64.54, also after having spent a couple of weeks in overbought territory, while their MACD crossed over bearishly earlier in the week.
Volumes were spotted out by the tumbleweeds, down -33.45% below the prior year’s average (30,136,911 vs. 45,282,963), indicating that the Q2 rally that kicked off in late April has likely run out of steam as market participants have become tired & skeptical about gains continueing.
Unlike SPY, QQQ had the strongest volume of last week on Monday, which was a declining day though.
Monday opened on a gap down & while the bears were not in full control (as indicated by the upper shadow of the session’s candle) they stepped in & pushed prices down below the support of the 10 day moving average & the session was unable to recover to close above it.
The upper shadow did set the stage for the middle three days of the week to slightly advance in a similar manner to SPY, weakest volume sessions of the week & straddling the 10 day moving average’s support.
Tuesday opened below the 10 DMA, tested lower, before ultimately climbing to close above it.
Wednesday opened in-line with the 10 DMA & bumped higher in a narrow-range day that resembled a spinning top candle without much upper or lower shadow, indicating that there was a great deal of hesitancy & temporary complacency at its current price level.
Thursday also opened in line with the 10 day moving average’s support propping the open higher, temporarily broke below the support level confirming that the prior two day’s price action was not built on strong foundations & was able to push higher.
Friday was the final squeeze early in the session as prices did open to the upside & test higher (long upper shadow), but much like SPY the rug was pulled out from under QQQ as profits were taken following the uncertainty of Thursday night’s debate & as investors eyed this coming short week.
Friday’s close was below the 10 DMA, giving its price downward pressure now in the form of a falling resistance level.
Friday’s bearish engulfing candle was able to make QQQ’s Average True Range begin to advance again, which looks set to continue this week as volatility seems primed to increase in the coming weeks.
Given that QQQ & SPY have both been the recipients of the good fortune that comes from having NVDA as a component recently the items to keep an eye out for this week area the same between the two indexes.
In QQQ’s case one additional thing to note is that their RSI appears to be in the midst of a bearish head & shoulders/just completed its right shoulder.
Watching their RSI as they decline will be important, especially as the approach the neutral mark of 50 midway through the oscillator as it may help give insight into magnitude of near-term price movements.
In terms of the head & shoulders pattern that is emerging on SPY’s chart, QQQ’s is a little different, but is still certainly in play, especially if the support of the early-June gap is broken & the 50 DMA is unable to support price action.
Fortunately for QQQ, their ascent had more consolidations, leading them to have more support levels that may help soothe any blows that their price takes better than SPY, whose more rapid ascent leaves it with less support at local levels.
QQQ has support at the $459.85 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $452.17 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $448.63 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $447.34/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.67:1) price levels, with resistance at the $480.17 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $487.20/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price level.
QQQ ETF’s Price Level:Volume Sentiment Over The Past 1-2 Years
IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF was the lone bright spot of the major four index ETFs this week, advancing +1.27%, but also on lackluster volume.
IWM ETF – iShares Russell 2000 ETF’s Technical Performance Over The Past 1-2 Years
Their RSI just crossed above the neutral level of 50 & sits at 52.82, while their MACD crossed over bullishly on Thursday after IWM was able to break above the resistance of the 10 & 50 day moving averages & close above them.
Volumes were -34.18% below average compared to the previous year (22,021,443 vs. 33,455,951), signaling that the gains of the week were not necessarily on true strength & should be viewed with a skeptical eye.
While it didn’t come out of an uptrend, but rather more of a consolidation range Monday’s candle can’t be viewed as a shooting star, but it certainly resembled one & looked as though IWM’s week was going to start off on a weak foot.
However, due to how it opened in between the support of the 10 day moving average & the resistance of the 50 DMA & tested much higher, it implied that there was a small bit of appetite to the upside for IWM.
Tuesday opened roughly in line with Monday’s close & the 50 day moving average, but prices were forced lower throughout the session & wound up settling in a cradle atop the 10 DMA’s support & below the 50 DMA’s resistance on this declining session.
Wednesday opened on a gap down indicating that there may be further weakness in the cards for IWM, but despite some testing lower the session closed higher than it opened, but still for a declining session.
Wednesday was unable to break above the resistance of the 10 DMA, setting up Thursday to open in line with it.
The session tested lower Thursday, before ultimately making a bullish run up to close above both the 10 & 50 day moving averages.
Friday ended the week on a bit of an ominous note though, as prices opened on a high gap up, signaled that there was some upside appetite still based on the upper shadow, but then fell apart as the day progressed & profits began to be taken in droves, as indicated by it being the strongest volume session of the week.
It is worth noting that Friday’s test to the downside was able to break the support of the 50 DMA, indicating that there is not a lot of strong sentiment there as a support level.
IWM’s Average True Range is still increasing due to the volatility of Friday’s session, and should continue to in the coming weeks.
As we note almost weekly, IWM moves far more in a manner of oscillating around a median price level when compared to how SPY & QQQ move, giving them more support levels nearby for the near-term.
If IWM’s 10 day moving average breaks down as a support level, it will be imperative to keep an eye on the gaps from early May & early June to see if prices begin to fill into those levels.
Their highs are still set up in a descending manner & given the signs that the other major index ETFs are flashing about a near-term consolidation/decline IWM can be expected to follow suit in the coming weeks.
IWM has support at the $201.73 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.08:1), $200.69 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.08:1), $198.60 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.47:1) & $198.35/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.47:1) price levels, with resistance at the $203.68 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.08:1), $204.40 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.83:1), $207.27 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.83:1) & $209.19/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.75:1) price level.
IWM ETF’s Price Level:Volume Sentiment Over The Past 1-2 Years
DIA ETF – SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF’s Technical Performance Over The Past Year
Their RSI is trending back towards neutral & sits at 54.74, while their MACD is still bullish but has flattened out in the wake of the consolidation of the past week.
Volumes were the most bountiful of the major four index ETFs, only falling -27.53% below the average volume for the previous year (2,527,411 vs. 3,487,726),
Monday kicked DIA’s week off on what appeared to be a strong note, where prices advanced & volumes were on the higher end of what we’ve been experiencing over the past eight weeks.
However the tall upper shadow on the candle indicates that there was not much strength for the bulls & that there was a great deal of selling pressure coming from the bears.
Tuesday this was confirmed, when on similar volumes DIA declined after opening near the middle of Monday’s price range & making a break towards the 10 day moving average’s support.
Wednesday saw DIA open to the downside, test the 10 DMA’s support & briefly break through it, only to rally & ultimately close higher.
It should be noted that this occurred on the weakest volume of the week, indicating that there was little strength behind the move & leaving market participants on edge & without a sense of confidence in the price movement.
Thursday was similar to Wednesday, DIA opened midway through the previous day’s range & tested the 10 DMA’s support again but was able to recover & close higher on slightly higher volume than Wednesday’s session.
The upper shadow on Thursday’s candle shows that there was a bit more appetite to go higher than Wednesday, but the low volumes continued to keep folks skeptical about future gains in the near-term.
Friday closed the week off on a long-legged doji, indicating severe uncertainty & a lack of confidence on the part of market participants, paired with the week’s highest volumes, indicating that there was a major profit taking & risk-off sentiment.
DIA was unable to break above the $395 mark on its upper shadow & did break down below the 10 DMA’s support, indicating that it is being viewed more weakly by investors.
The strength of the 10 & 50 day moving averages as support will play an important role for DIA in the next couple of weeks, especially as the increasing volatility of the past week has gotten their Average True Range perked up.
Should they break down, keep an eye out to see how the potential head & shoulders set up plays our for DIA using the $397.13 price level of March as the left shoulder & the $395.59/share mark of June as the left.
Should prices approach the $376.08 level there will be a need to analyze the possibility of a reversal at that level, given that that is an interior support level between the left shoulder & the head.
Should it be broken to the downside then the $374.94 & $368.09/share levels will be where attention must be focused in terms of support before a potential decline into the area of last year’s Q3 major price run up into 2024.
Adding complexity to the mix is that NVDA is not a DJIA component & so DIA has not benefitted by its aggressive price movements directly.
Should the semiconductor stocks all take a hit leading to SPY & QQQ to face aggressive declines, will DIA & IWM who have little to no exposure to these names be able to consolidate with minimal losses or will they be dragged down in a panic with the former two indexes?
That will be a question sure to be on everyone’s mind.
DIA has support at the $391.04 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.08:1), $390.31 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.08:1), $390.24 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.08:1) & $387.86/share (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.25:1) price levels, with resistance at the $395.59 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 3.5:1), $397.13 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.6:0*) & $399.83/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.6:0*) price level.
DIA ETF’s Price Level:Volume Sentiment Over The Past 4-5 Years
The Week Ahead
Monday kicks off a new month with S&P Final U.S. Manufacturing PMI at 9:45 am & Construction Spending & ISM Manufacturing data at 10 am.
There are no noteworthy earnings reports set to be released on Monday.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks in Portugal Tuesday morning at 9:30 am, followed by Job Openings at 10 am & Auto Sales (TBD).
Tuesday morning brings earnings reports from MSC Industrial & Radius Recycling, with Simulation Plus scheduled to report after the session’s close.
Wednesday begins with NY Fed President Williams speaking in Portugal at 6:30 am followed by ADP Employment, Initial Jobless Claims & U.S. Trade Deficit data at 8:30 am, S&P Final U.S. Services PMI data at 9:45 am, Factory Orders & ISM Services data at 10 am & the Minutes of the June FOMC meeting at 2pm.
Constellation Brands will report earnings before Wednesday’s open before a half day due to the July 4th holiday.
Thursday is July 4th & there are no scheduled data or earnings announcements as the market is closed.
U.S. Employment Report, U.S. Unemployment Rate, U.S. Hourly Wages & Hourly Wages Year-over-Year are all released on Friday at 8:30 am & there are no notable earnings reports scheduled for the day.
See you back here next week & have a great Fourth of July!
*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM or DIA AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***
Highest Technical Rating S&P 500 Components As Of 6/28/2024’s Close:
1 – NVDA
2 – VST
3 – ANET
4 – CRWD
5 – TER
6 – NTAP
7 – AVGO
8 – LLY
9 – CCL
10 – MPWR
Lowest Technical Rating S&P 500 Components As Of 6/28/2024’s Close:
1 – FRCB
2 – WBA
3 – NKE
4 – ALB
5 – PAYC
6 – EL
7 – LULU
8 – DAY
9 – EPAM
10 – POOL
Highest Volume Rating S&P 500 Components As Of 6/28/2024’s Close:
1 – NKE
2 – CTAS
3 – MRK
4 – VLTO
5 – CPRT
6 – CHD
7 – TDG
8 – UNH
9 – TT
10 – MTD
Lowest Volume Rating S&P 500 Components As Of 6/28/2024’s Close:
1 – STX
2 – NVDA
3 – UAL
4 – FCX
5 – HPE
6 – AON
7 – PARA
8 – AAL
9 – BA
10 – PFE
Highest Technical Rating ETFs As Of 6/28/2024’s Close:
1 – NVDL
2 – USD
3 – SOXL
4 – WGMI
5 – FNGG
6 – TECL
7 – BCHG
8 – TQQQ
9 – DAPP
10 – CRPT
Lowest Technical Rating ETFs As Of 6/28/2024’s Close:
1 – NVD
2 – SSG
3 – NVDS
4 – UVIX
5 – SOXS
6 – MSOX
7 – EVAV
8 – MEXX
9 – BOIL
10 – UVXY
Highest Volume Rating ETFs As Of 6/28/2024’s Close:
1 – USCL
2 – JULW
3 – JULT
4 – JULQ
5 – FEBT
6 – NUGO
7 – MKOR
8 – XTAP
9 – MARZ
10 – SIXJ
Lowest Volume Rating ETFs As Of 6/28/2024’s Close:
1 – EIDO
2 – TMSL
3 – SHOC
4 – RFEU
5 – UCYB
6 – VRAI
7 – CGGO
8 – VMBS
9 – PFM
10 – LEXI
Highest Technical Rating Stocks As Of 6/28/2024’s Close:
1 – FCCN
2 – FTEL
3 – RGS
4 – MDIA
5 – LSF
6 – TSSI
7 – ASTS
8 – MLGO
9 – INSG
10 – AGRX
Lowest Technical Rating Stocks As Of 6/28/2024’s Close:
1 – AVTE
2 – TRNR
3 – NAAS
4 – CNSP
5 – VLCN
6 – GWAV
7 – BNED
8 – GRI
9 – DSY
10 – CRKN
Highest Volume Stocks As Of 6/28/2024’s Close:
1 – COSM
2 – WHLR
3 – CARM
4 – CMND
5 – STRW
6 – LNKB
7 – PEBK
8 – CDT
9 – CTV
10 – LZM
Lowest Volume Rating Stocks As Of 6/28/2024’s Close:
1 – PRI
2 – EVH
3 – RSVR
4 – MMSI
5 – RXRX
6 – SQSP
7 – LTH
8 – BOKF
9 – PCVX
10 – ANSS
*** THE LIST ABOVE IS STRICTLY FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES – I MAY OR MAY NOT HAVE OR INITIATE A LONG, SHORT, OR LONG/SHORT POSITION IN ANY NAME ABOVE AT ANY TIME ***
