Author: OptimizedValue

Since our last Volume Sentiment Analysis major indexes have continued higher, with SPY & QQQ hitting new all-time highs, DIA approaching their all-time high & IWM has been battling to stay above its 200 day moving average this week.

Last night the VIX closed at 16.83, indicating an implied one day move of +/-1.06% & an implied one month move of +/-4.86% for the S&P 500, which appears oddly tame for a market whose primary gains came in the wake of a gap up on June 24.

Since that gap up there has been consistent upwards pressure, with SPY closing outside of its upper Bollinger Band almost every one of the past seven sessions, which is cause for concern & reason to view the situation as being overheated.

While volumes have been elevated (see last week’s market review note) compared to the year prior, the aforementioned gap up & the one from May 12, 2025 remain unfilled, mostly based on hope & optimism, but not on much in terms of actual facts.

Tariffs & foreign relations are still not entirely resolved & there are still companies announcing massive layoffs (MSFT announced 9,000 today), making these gains look more like the result of hopium than much else of substance.

This calls for a review of the volume sentiment at the price levels each of the major index ETFs have traded at in recent history to gain insight into how market participants have felt at each of these price levels.

This way, in the event of a retest there is some insight into how market participants may behave again.

Each section below contains a view of each index ETF’s chart (for a technical breakdown of each’s chart, see the link above for last week’s note), as well as a list of their current one year support & resistance levels with the volume sentiment noted beneath it on the table.

There is an additional table beneath this table with each price level’s sentiment, as well as a typed text version below that is able to be copied & pasted.

Note that “NULL, 0:0*” values denote areas that each name has traded at but with limited volume data to work with from a comparison standpoint in terms of creating a ratio of buyers:sellers (or vice versa) or is the outlier above the highest/lowest level with price data.

Also, prices that do have a ratio of Buyers:Sellers (Sellers:Buyers) where the denominator is 0 are denoted with an asterisk “*” as well.

In the written lists of the price levels & volume sentiments the price levels that contain support & resistance levels are marked in BOLD.

Recall that at price extremes such as the highs that we have recently hit there will tend to be skewed data due to the small sample size & factor that into how you interpret each price level’s reported sentiment.

This is intended to serve as an additional tool, similar to a barometer to use during your due diligence process & is not meant to replace doing your own research & is not financial advice.

Price Level:Volume Sentiment Analysis For SPY, The SPDR S&P 500 ETF

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF has pushed another all-time high today, two days before the July 4th holiday.

Given the speculative nature of the advances it is worth reviewing SPY’s support & resistance levels below, along with their historic Buyer:Seller (Seller:Buyer) ratio in order to aid in assessing how strong each is.

This is particularly important now as we approach the month of August, which historically is volatile for broader markets.

For a deeper dive into SPY’s near-term horizon take a look at the link above to this past week’s market review post.

$620 – NULL – 0:0*, +0.38% From Current Price Level

$615 – NULL – 0:0*, -0.43% From Current Price Level – Current Price Level*

$610 – NULL – 0:0*, -1.24% From Current Price Level

$605 – Buyers – 2.6:1, -2.05% From Current Price Level – 10 Day Moving Average*

$600 – Buyers – 7:1, -2.86% From Current Price Level

$595 – Sellers – 1.88:1, -3.67% From Current Price Level

$590 – Buyers – 1.91:1, -4.48% From Current Price Level

$585 – Buyers – 2.67:1, -5.29% From Current Price Level

$580 – Sellers – 2.81:1, -6.1% From Current Price Level – 50 Day Moving Average*

$575 – Buyers – 1.74:1, -6.91% From Current Price Level – 200 Day Moving Average*

$570 – Even – 1:1, -7.71% From Current Price Level

$565 – Buyers – 1.5:1, -8.52% From Current Price Level

$560 – Sellers – 1.07:1, -9.33% From Current Price Level

$555 – Buyers – 3.53:1, -10.14% From Current Price Level

$550 – Buyers – 1.24:1, -10.95% From Current Price Level

$545 – Buyers – 2.24:1, -11.76% From Current Price Level

$540 – Buyers – 1.67:1, -12.57% From Current Price Level

$535 – Sellers – 1.11:1, -13.38% From Current Price Level

$530 – Buyers – 1.77:1, -14.19% From Current Price Level

$525 – Buyers – 1.92:1, -15% From Current Price Level

$520 – Buyers – 1.33:1 -15.81% From Current Price Level

$515 – Buyers – 4:1, -16.62% From Current Price Level

$510 – Sellers – 1.41:1, -17.43% From Current Price Level

$505 – Buyers – 1.2:1, -18.24% From Current Price Level

$500 – Sellers – 2.05:1, -19.05% From Current Price Level

$496 – Buyers – 1.24:1, -19.7% From Current Price Level

$492 – Sellers – 7.83:1, -20.34% From Current Price Level

$488 – Buyers – 1.61:1, -20.99% From Current Price Level

$484 – Sellers – 1.2:1, -21.64% From Current Price Level

$480 – Buyers – 1.27:1, -22.29% From Current Price Level

$476 – Buyers – 2.33:1, -22.93% From Current Price Level

$472 – Buyers – 1.91:1, -23.58% From Current Price Level

$468 – Even – 1:1, -24.23% From Current Price Level

$464 – Buyers – 1.77:1, -24.88% From Current Price Level

$460 – Sellers – 1.52:1, -25.52% From Current Price Level

$456 – Buyers – 1.13:1, -26.17% From Current Price Level

$452 – Buyers – 0.7:0*, -26.82% From Current Price Level

$448 – Buyers – 2.1:0*, -27.47% From Current Price Level

$444 – Buyers – 1.42:1, -28.11% From Current Price Level

$440 – Buyers – 2.78:1, -28.76% From Current Price Level

$436 – Buyers – 1.86:1, -29.41% From Current Price Level

$432 – Sellers – 1.58:1, -30.06% From Current Price Level

$428 – Buyers – 1.22:1, -30.71% From Current Price Level

$424 – Buyers – 1.92:1, -31.35% From Current Price Level

$420 – Sellers – 1.68:1, -32% From Current Price Level

$416 – Buyers – 1.08:1, -32.65% From Current Price Level

$412 – Buyers – 1.31:1, -33.3% From Current Price Level

$408 – Sellers – 1.63:1, -33.94% From Current Price Level

$404 – Buyers – 1.95:1, -34.59% From Current Price Level

$400 – Buyers – 2.51:1, -35.24% From Current Price Level

$396 – Sellers – 1.8:1, -35.89% From Current Price Level

$392 – Sellers – 1.97:1, -36.53% From Current Price Level

$388 – Buyers – 5:1, -37.18% From Current Price Level

$384 – Buyers – 1.67:1, -37.83% From Current Price Level

$380 – Buyers – 1.39:1, -38.48% From Current Price Level

$376 – Sellers – 2.47:1, -39.12% From Current Price Level

$372 – Sellers – 2.12:1, -39.77% From Current Price Level

$368 – Sellers – 2:1, -40.42% From Current Price Level

$364 – Sellers – 1.28:1, -41.07% From Current Price Level

$360 – Buyers – 1.11:1, -41.71% From Current Price Level

$356 – Buyers – 1.43:1, -42.36% From Current Price Level

$352 – Buyers – 3.14:1, -43.01% From Current Price Level

$348 – Sellers – 1.9:0*, -43.66% From Current Price Level

$344 – Sellers – 2.7:0*, -44.31% From Current Price Level

$340 – Sellers – 0.8:0*, -44.95% From Current Price Level

$336 – NULL – 0:0*, -45.6% From Current Price Level

Price Level:Volume Sentiment For QQQ, The Invesco QQQ Trust

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF has just bounced down off of a new all-time high, but still remains moving in sync with SPY to a degree.

They’ve also seen an uptick in volume recently, however much of that is in response to recent earnings calls & continued AI speculation.

The data below can help map out how to navigate any potential corrections in the near-to-mid term for QQQ in terms of viewing how market participants have behaved historically.

$545 – NULL – 0:0*, -0.36% From Current Price Level – Current Price Level*

$540 – NULL – 0:0*, -1.28% From Current Price Level

$535 – Buyers – 3.67:1, -2.19% From Current Price Level – 10 Day Moving Average*

$530 – Buyers – 3:1, -3.11% From Current Price Level

$525 – Buyers – 2.67:1, -4.02% From Current Price Level

$520 – Buyers – 2.48:1, -4.93% From Current Price Level

$515 – Buyers – 1.1:1, -5.85% From Current Price Level

$510 – Sellers – 2.04:1, -6.76% From Current Price Level – 50 Day Moving Average*

$505 – Sellers – 1.42:1, -7.68% From Current Price Level

$500 – Buyers – 2:1, -8.59% From Current Price Level – 200 Day Moving Average*

$496 – Buyers – 1.17:1, -9.32% From Current Price Level

$492 – Buyers – 1.96:1, -10.05% From Current Price Level

$488 – Buyers – 2.59:1, -10.78% From Current Price Level

$484 – Buyers – 1.28:1, -11.52% From Current Price Level

$480 – Buyers – 1.71:1, -12.25% From Current Price Level

$476 – Sellers – 1.04:1, -12.98% From Current Price Level

$472 – Buyers – 2.04:1, -13.71% From Current Price Level

$468 – Sellers – 2.34:1, -14.44% From Current Price Level

$464 – Buyers – 6:1, -15.17% From Current Price Level

$460 – Buyers – 1.95:1, -15.9% From Current Price Level

$456 – Buyers – 1.25:1, -16.63% From Current Price Level

$452 – Buyers – 1.08:1, -17.37% From Current Price Level

$448 – Sellers – 1.16:1, -18.1% From Current Price Level

$444 – Sellers – 3.45:1, -18.83% From Current Price Level

$440 – Buyers – 1.7:1, -19.56% From Current Price Level

$436 – Buyers – 3.78:1, -20.29% From Current Price Level

$432 – Sellers – 3.42:1, -21.02% From Current Price Level

$428 – Buyers – 1.18:1, -21.75% From Current Price Level

$424 – Sellers – 1.36:1, -22.48% From Current Price Level

$420 – Sellers – 1.11:1, -23.22% From Current Price Level

$416 – Sellers – 1.3:0*, -23.95% From Current Price Level

$412 – Sellers – 2:1, -24.68% From Current Price Level

$408 – Sellers – 1.9:0*, -25.41% From Current Price Level

$404 – NULL – 0:0*, -26.14% From Current Price Level

Price Level:Volume Sentiment Analysis For IWM, The iShares Russell 2000 ETF

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF is having the strongest day of the four major index ETFs & is struggling to remain above its long-term trendline after months of performing below it.

Its volume has not been as strong as the other three majors recently, signaling that there is still uncertainty & market participants are not flocking into small-cap names.

There is also an interesting amount of Seller sentiment both in its support & resistance levels which is worth examining on the table below.

$244 – NULL – 0:0*, +11.92% From Current Price Level

$240 – Buyers – 0.4:0*, +10.09% From Current Price Level

$236 – Buyers – 1.9:0*, +8.25% From Current Price Level

$232 – Buyers – 1.18:1, +6.42% From Current Price Level

$228 – Buyers – 1.56:1, +4.58% From Current Price Level

$224 – Sellers – 1.23:1, +2.75% From Current Price Level

$220 – Buyers – 2.41:1, +0.91% From Current Price Level

$216 – Buyers – 1.19:1, -0.92% From Current Price Level – Current Price Level*

$212 – Sellers – 1.89:1, -2.76% From Current Price Level – 10 & 200 Day Moving Average**

$208 – Buyers – 1.9:1, -4.59% From Current Price Level

$204 – Buyers – 1.11:1, -6.43% From Current Price Level – 50 Day Moving Average*

$200 – Buyers – 1.44:1, -8.26% From Current Price Level

$198 – Sellers – 1.3:1, -9.18% From Current Price Level

$196 – Buyers – 1.33:1, -10.1% From Current Price Level

$194 – Buyers – 1.36:1, -11.01% From Current Price Level

$192 – Buyers – 1.24:1, -11.93% From Current Price Level

$190 – Sellers – 2.7:1, -12.85% From Current Price Level

$188 – Buyers – 1.19:1, -13.77% From Current Price Level

$186 – Buyers – 1.42:1, -14.68% From Current Price Level

$184 – Buyers – 1.83:1, -15.6% From Current Price Level

$182 – Buyers – 3.36:1, -16.52% From Current Price Level

$180 – Sellers – 1.8:1, -17.43% From Current Price Level

$178 – Sellers – 2.2:1, -18.35% From Current Price Level

$176 – Buyers – 1.27:1, -19.27% From Current Price Level

$174 – Buyers – 1.68:1, -20.19% From Current Price Level

$172 – Buyers – 1.18:1, -21.1% From Current Price Level

$170 – Buyers – 1.24:1, -22.02% From Current Price Level

$168 – Sellers – 1.39:1, -22.94% From Current Price Level

$166 – Sellers – 1.27:1, -23.86% From Current Price Level

$164 – Sellers – 1.78:1, -24.77% From Current Price Level

$162 – Even – 1:1, -25.69% From Current Price Level

$160 – Sellers – 1.07:1, -26.61% From Current Price Level

$158 – NULL – 0:0*, -27.53% From Current Price Level

Price Level:Volume Sentiment Analysis For DIA, The SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF

DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF has continued to climb in recent weeks as market participants flock to & hold the blue chip stocks.

Nearing its all-time high, the support sentiment below is now something that is worth examining when profits are taken off of the table in the near-term.

$448 – NULL – 0:0*, +0.7% From Current Price Level

$444 – Buyers – 14:1, -0.2% From Current Price Level

$440 – Sellers – 1.24:1, -1.1% From Current Price Level – Current Price Level*

$436 – Buyers – 1.71:1, -2% From Current Price Level

$432 – Buyers – 2.5:1, -2.9% From Current Price Level

$428 – Sellers – 1.43:1, -3.8% From Current Price Level

$424 – Buyers – 4.5:1, -4.7% From Current Price Level – 10 Day Moving Average**

$420 – Buyers – 1.08:1, -5.59% From Current Price Level – 200 Day Moving Average*

$416 – Sellers – 1.03:1, -6.49% From Current Price Level – 50 Day Moving Average*

$412 – Sellers – 1.39:1, -7.39% From Current Price Level

$408 – Buyers – 1.2:1, -8.29% From Current Price Level

$404 – Buyers – 4.14:1, -9.19% From Current Price Level

$400 – Buyers – 1.75:1, -10.09% From Current Price Level

$396 – Sellers – 1.09:1, -10.99% From Current Price Level

$392 – Buyers – 2.22:1, -11.89% From Current Price Level

$388 – Buyers – 2.64:1, -12.79% From Current Price Level

$384 – Buyers – 1.04:1, -13.69% From Current Price Level

$380 – Sellers – 1.04:1, -14.59% From Current Price Level

$376 – Sellers – 1.42:1, -15.48% From Current Price Level

$372 – Sellers – 1.04:1, -16.38% From Current Price Level

$368 – Buyers – 1.67:1, -17.28% From Current Price Level

$364 – Buyers – 1.84:1, -18.18% From Current Price Level

$360 – Buyers – 2.67:1, -19.08% From Current Price Level

$356 – Buyers – 0.2:0*, -19.98% From Current Price Level

$352 – Buyers – 1.71:1, -20.88% From Current Price Level

$348 – Sellers – 1.67:1, -21.78% From Current Price Level

$344 – Buyers – 0.8:0*, -22.68% From Current Price Level

$340 – Buyers – 1.52:1, -23.58% From Current Price Level

$336 – Buyers – 1.5:1, -24.48% From Current Price Level

$332 – Buyers – 1.94:1, -25.37% From Current Price Level

$328 – Buyers – 2.13:1, -26.27% From Current Price Level

$324 – Buyers – 1.07:1, -27.17% From Current Price Level

$320 – Buyers – 1.33:1, -28.07% From Current Price Level

$316 – Even – 1:1, -28.97% From Current Price Level

$312 – Buyers – 1.1:1, -29.87% From Current Price Level

$308 – Buyers – 1.02:1, -30.77% From Current Price Level

$304 – Sellers – 3.27:1, -31.67% From Current Price Level

$300 – Buyers – 1.74:1, -32.57% From Current Price Level

$296 – Sellers – 1.57:1, -33.47% From Current Price Level

$292 – Sellers – 2.8:1, -34.37% From Current Price Level

$288 – Sellers – 1.26:1, -35.26% From Current Price Level

$284 – Even – 1:1, -36.16% From Current Price Level

$280 – Sellers – 2:1, -37.06% From Current Price Level

$276 – Sellers – 6.67:1, -37.96% From Current Price Level

$272 – NULL – 0:0*, -38.86% From Current Price Level

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM OR DIA AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF gained +3.47% last week, while the VIX closed at 16.32, indicating an implied one day move of +/-1.03% & an implied one month move of +/-4.72%.

Their RSI is in overbought territory at 70.17, while their MACD crossed over bullishly on Friday, but its histogram looks muted & like this will become overstretched within the coming week.

Volumes were +28.38% higher than the prior year’s average (75,486,000 vs. 58,800,317.5), which paints an interesting picture given their distribution & the gappiness of the week.

Monday kicked the week off on what appeared to be a strong session, where the week’s highest volume fueled a high open that retreated as low as $591.89, before roaring higher to break out & close above the resistance of the 10 day moving average.

Tuesday is where things began to get fishy, as the session opened on a ~1% gap up, tested below the $605/share level briefly, before climbing higher on the second lowest volume of the week.

Warning signs began flashing on Wednesday, when the week’s lowest volume session produced another gap up open, but went on to decline & closed below the opening price, but for a day-over-day gain.

The candle also had the shape of a hanging man, indicating bearish sentiment creeping in as SPY’s all-time high was closed in on.

Thursday also opened on a gap up, but this time the day continued higher to close as an advancing session.

Friday too was interesting, as the golden cross of the 50 & 200 day moving averages occurred & SPY’s MACD broke bullishly above the signal line on the highest volume of the week, a new all-time high was set & you guessed it, it all occurred on a gap up open.

However, uncertainty began to creep into the market, as the session closed as a spinning top candle, indicating that there was less exuberance and a bit of prudence entering the picture.

This sets the stage for an interesting upcoming week, as any moves higher set a new all-time high & there is limited economic data & earnings reports on this four day holiday week.

While there certainly was more volume than the previous year’s average levels, it mostly occurred on the bookends of the week & the jumpy nature of the gains attributed to gap up opens does not paint the picture of a sturdy market.

In the event of more advances on SPY’s horizon the volume patterns will be essential to keep a pulse on & understand.

The consolidation case becomes a bit dicey at these levels, and will also require attention to intraday volume, as last week’s gaps will all need to be filled & this will inspire profit taking from folks who otherwise may not have been willing to sell so quickly.

This makes the consolidation case potential kindling for declines even moreso than usual.

Should there be signs of some weakness in manufacturing, construction or employment data or in the case of profit taking or international relations flare ups then the downside case becomes rather interesting.

This is particularly true because all of the support levels beneath SPY’s closing price on Friday are at former all-time highs, which means that they have a Buyer oriented skew on their volume sentiment.

With this in mind, to the downside the 10 day moving average will be an interesting place to keep an eye on to see if it provides support or if it breaks down.

Should it break down SPY enters a Seller dominated price zone, which may see more market participants heading towards the exits, forcing prices lower.

SPY has support at the $609.59 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.43:1), $607.15 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.43:1), $603.42 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.46:1) & $602.27/share (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.46:1) price levels, with resistance at the $616.39/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF advanced +4.04%, as the tech-heavy index was the favorite resort of market participants for the week.

Their RSI is in overbought territory at 71.06, while their MACD crossed over bullishly at the end of the week following a golden cross & many gap up sessions.

Volumes were +22.86% higher than the previous year’s average (47,902,000 vs. 38,990,317.5), which will play an important role moving into the next couple of weeks.

QQQ’s week started off similarly to SPY’s, opening up & testing downward to break below the $525/share level briefly, before roaring back to break out & close above the resistance of the 10 day moving average.

Tuesday opened on a gap up, briefly breaking above the $540/share price level indicating that there was some more upside appetite & setting a new all-time high.

Wednesday too opened on a gap up, and like SPY began to show signs of weakness & caution entering the arena.

While the day did test higher, it also tested much further on its lower than upper shadow & closed below its opening price, signaling that there was some profits taking & perhaps some jitters among market participants, which is peculiar as it occurred on the second lowest volume session of the week.

Thursday featured the week’s lowest volume, but was able to open on another gap up, re-test down to near Wednesday’s close, but ultimately charge higher & closed near the session’s high.

Friday the week closed on an interesting note, as another gap up open yielded the week’s highest volume session for a new all-time high that occured on a high wave doji.

Given the day’s low was $544.55 & the day’s high was $549.91 there was very clearly a feeling of uncertainty & some profits being taken down from the table, setting an interesting scene for the coming couple of weeks.

Like SPY, the upside story for QQQ hinges upon forcing new all-time highs, which will require some type of catalyst, as well as sustained advancing volume to establish a proper uptrend.

They share a similar consolidation case as well, as any consolidation is likely to lead into declines due to the gappy advances of last week.

To the downside, if they fill all of the windows created last week the 10 day moving average becomes the support level of interest as it sits midway between Monday & Tuesday’s window.

If that doesn’t hold up then the potential for a head & shoulders pattern emerges that began in mid-May.

While there are other support levels nearby, they are overly skewed towards Buyer dominated sentiment due to the fact that they were all all-time highs at one point or another in the past 52-weeks, so we don’t have much of a read on selling pressure.

That does offer the potential for their ratios to be diluted in the near-future.

QQQ has support at the $539.40 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 6.67:1), $536.88 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 6.67:1), $535.01 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 6.67:1) & $532.43/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.33:1) price levels, with resistance at the $549.99/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF had the worst week of the four majors, gaining just +2.96%.

Their RSI has flattened out at 62.41, while their MACD crossed over bullishly on Thursday, but is not indicating much strength as it too lies flat.

Volumes were -1.02% lower than the prior year’s average (30,320,000 vs. 30,631,155), as market participants stayed the course with the small cap index.

IWM’s week opened lower than the prior Friday’s close, tested all the way down to $206.81/share, before rebounding back up to test & break out above the 10 day moving average’s resistance, ending the day near its high.

This occurred on the second highest volume of the week, showing that it took force to break above the short-term trendline.

Tuesday featured a similar gap as SPY & QQQ’s, which tested back down to the $212.36/share before powering higher to temporarily break above the 200 day moving average’s resistance & closing in-line with the long-term trendline.

Wednesday managed to open just above the 200 DMA, but quickly saw profits taken down from the table & IWM declined to end the day below the 200 DMA at $211.97, forming a bearish engulfing pattern with Tuesday’s candle & signaling that there was bearish sentiment creeping into the market.

Thursday managed to open higher & advance throughout the day, breaking above the 200 day moving average’s resistance & closing above it, but on the week’s weakest volume.

This signaled continued hesitancy & that there was still quite a bit of uncertainty lingering around the small cap index & its ability to remain above the long-term trendline.

Friday confirmed this with a gap up open that went as high as $217.41/share before tumbling to break down below the 200 day moving average’s support temporarily, and while it was able to recover back to above it, the session closed lower than it opened.

Friday also cast doubts about IWM’s near-term performance, due to the high waves of the day’s candles, as it showed there was a wide range of valuations market participants valued it at & that there was a bit of profit taking going on.

Looking to this week & next, IWM needs to form more of a base & get some stronger support above the 200 day moving average if it wants to continue climbing higher, which will also require an upside catalyst of some type.

Should it make a run at it, the $216.76 & $219.57-219.93 levels will come into play as levels of importance on the resistance side.

While there’s plenty of historic buyer sentiment at these levels, IWM needs to first break cleanly out of the price zone it’s been in ($212-215.99/share) which is a Seller dominated zone.

The consolidation case revolves around IWM oscillating around the 200 & 10 day moving averages awaiting an upside or downside catalyst, watching as the 50 day moving average moves closer.

To the downside, if the long-term trendline doesn’t hold up as support the next four support levels are all historically Seller oriented prices, which would force a test of the 10 day moving average’s support.

THis also puts into play the potential for a bearish head & shoulders pattern with mid-May’s gap up session serving as the left shoulder.

IWM has support at the $215.34 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.33:1), $214.52 (200 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.33:1), $212.94 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.33:1) & $212.90/share (2 Touch-Points*, Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.33:1) price levels, with resistance at the $215.65 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.33:1), $216.76 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.26:1), $219.57 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.26:1) & $219.93/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.26:1) price levels.

DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF climbed +3.85% last week, as the blue chip index remained in favor of market participants, but it too showed similar weakness to SPY, QQQ & IWM.

Their RSI is approaching the overbought level of 70 & is currently at 68.26, while their MACD crossed over bullishly on Thursday & will be an area of interest this week after a gap filled week.

Volumes were +15.19% higher than the prior year’s average (3,688,000 vs. 3,201,785.7), mostly due to the first two sessions of the week, which paints a dim picture.

Monday the week opened in-line with the 200 day moving average, dropped below it briefly down to $419.62/share before climbing higher to break out above the 200 & 10 day moving averages, closing above both.

Tuesday featured a gap up open & the week’s highest volume session resulted in a close above $430/share.

Wednesday saw some profits taken in a declining session that formed a bearish harami pattern with Tuesday’s & began to show signs of weakness among the blue-chip index.

Thursday featured another gap up open and the day produced an advancing session +0.95%, but it occurred on the lowest volume of the week, showing that there was beginning to be doubts about DIA’s near-term future.

Friday confirmed this when another gap up open pushed higher to reach a high of $439.56/share, but was forced lower to close at $438/share as profits were taken & a risk-off into the weekend sentiment crept into view.

It should be noted that Friday’s session had the second lowest volume of the week, which when paired with the size of the day’s upper shadow does not paint a strong picture for the session’s advance.

The upside case for DIA is interesting, as it has three resistance levels above it that includes its all-time high & lots of Buyer sentiment as it is near price extremes.

Like the aforementioned three index ETFs, for any upside breakout to have stability & legs beneath it you’ll need to see sustained advancing volume.

The consolidation case here is iffy, as there are enough gaps that it could see prices drop to as low as $427.68, which would lead into closing the Monday-Tuesday gap up window.

The downside case that should be monitored here is how strong the support of the 10 & 200 day moving averages hold up.

Should the long or short term trend lines break down, expect to see more downside movement by DIA, especially given that $420-423.99/share is a Seller zone historically, which could force a test of the support of the 50 day moving average.

DIA has support at the $430.27 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.15:1), $428.31 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.15:1), $427.44 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.83:1) & $427.03/share (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.83:1) price levels, with resistance at the $439.84 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 6.67:1), $446.72 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.67:1) & $447/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.67:1) price levels.

The Week Ahead

Monday the week kicks off with Chicago Business Barometer (PMI) data at 9:45 am.

Progress Software reports earnings after Monday’s closing bell.

S&P Final U.S. Manufacturing PMI data comes out Tuesday at 9:45 am, before Construction Spending, Job Openings & ISM Manufacturing data at 10 am.

Tuesday morning MSC Industrial reported earnings before the opening bell, before Constellation Brands & Greenbrier are scheduled to report after the closing bell.

Wednesday features ADP Employment data at 8:15 am.

UniFirst reports earnings before Wednesday’s session opens.

Initial Jobless Claims, U.S. Employment Report, U.S. Unemployment Rate, U.S. Hourly Wages, Hourly Wages Year-over-Year & U.S. Trade Deficit data are all released Thursday morning at 8:30 am, followed by S&P Final U.S. Services PMI data at 9:45 am & Factory Orders and ISM Services data at 10 am.

There are no earnings reports scheduled for Thursday & the market closes at 1 pm, with the bond market closing at 2 pm.

Friday features no major earnings calls or economic data releases as it is the Fourth of July.

See you back here next week!

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM OR DIA AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF declined -0.46% for the week, while the VIX closed the week at 20.62, indicating an implied one day move of +/-1.3%, and a one month implied move of +/-5.96%.

Their RSI is declining towards the neutral 50-mark & sits current at 55.84, while their MACD is bearish, with the histogram implying that there may be more declines on the near-term horizon.

Volumes were +42.48% higher than the prior year’s average levels (83,212,500 vs. 58,401,952), which is cause for concern given that aside from Monday’s gap up open that caused an advance, the entire holiday week was declining with lower shadows indicating that there is more Seller pressure on the horizon.

Monday the week began on the only advancing session, which is of note due to the rest of the week resulting in declines & it was the third highest volume of the four sessions.

While the week opened on a gap up, the lack of participation was disappointing from a sustainability perspective.

Tuesday the cracks became exposed, opening on a gap down that was unable to break above $599.98/share & ended up breaking down though the support of the 10 day moving average on higher volume than Monday.

Wednesday things got even fisher, as the session produced lower highs & lower lows, forming a bearish harami pattern with Tuesday’s candle on the week’s lowest volume heading into the holiday Thursday & the resistance of the 10 day moving average kept SPY subdued.

Friday’s candle opened on a gap higher, attempted to crack the $600/share level, but ultimately declined forming a bearish engulfing pattern with Wednesday’s session on the highest volume of the week.

The story of this week is going to be focused on Iran, PCE & Powell’s testimony to the House.

To the upside the $603.28-.42/level needs to be broken through to see any type of advances.

This will prove tricky though as like noted last week there is a bearish head & shoulders pattern emerging for SPY that’s shoulders are at those two prices.

There’s going to need to be major, consistent advancing volume in order for that to happen, which should be noted.

The head is the $609.59/share level, which is SPY’s all-time high, and will need a lot of participation to break down.

The consolidation case has SPY oscillating around the 10 day moving average, with perhaps a minor pump when the 50 day moving average crosses through the 200 DMA bullishly, but should that happen there is another, smaller head & shoulders that would form from mid-May’s gap up, leading to the following.

The declining case gets tricky, as there is limited support at SPY’s current price level nearby, which means that there is likely going to be a closing on said window that occurred in mid-May, and the long-term trend line will be tested as support.

In the best case scenario there SPY will oscillate around the 200 DMA awaiting an upside or downside catalyst, but the price level that the 200 DMA resides in is historically Seller oriented, which adds fuel to any declines.

$570.64/share is the current downside target level to watch, but that will change daily as it is the 50 day moving average (Per Friday’s close).

SPY has support at the $576.12 (200 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.28:1), $574.71 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.77:1), $571.93 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.77:1) & $570.64/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.77:1) price levels, with resistance at the $598.00 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.41:1), $603.28 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.46:1), $603.42 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.46:1) & $609.59/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.43:1) price levels.

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF dipped -0.02% last week, and much like SPY it was mostly only that muted of a decline due to Monday’s gap up open.

Their RSI is trending down towards the neutral 50 level at 57.03, while their MACD is bearish & looks to signal more trouble on the near-term horizon.

Volumes were +19.62% higher than the previous year’s average (46,355,000 vs. 38,750,598), which paints a bleaker picture when you factor in that the weekest session of the week was the only advancing one, signaling that there was quite a bit of risk being taken off of the table.

QQQ’s week looked an awful lot like SPY’s with only a few small differences.

Monday’s gap up session for QQQ was their weakest volume of the week, which was quite telling about the rest of the week’s performance.

Tuesday opened lower, and while there was briefly an attempt higher the Sellers came out in droves to force a breakdown of the 10 day moving average’s support.

Wednesday this theme continued on higher declining volume, as Sellers emerged more & more throughout the week & there was more of a risk-off sentiment emerging that looks poised to carry over into the new week.

Wednesday’s candle formed a bearish harami, which was bearishly engulfed by Friday’s candle on even higher volume, which is even more bleak.

Like SPY, the upside case is relying on there not being a bearish head & shoulders pattern emerging, where the shoulders are $536.78 & $537.48/share.

Those levels need to be broken through in order for there to be a run at QQQ’s all-time high of $540.01 (the head).

Consolidation case is also like SPY’s, with the only difference being that their 50 day moving average is forming a bullish golden cross today, which may provide a brief pump, but unlikely based on the volume trends of last week.

To the downside QQQ’s first two support levels have been historically Seller zones, which will lead it down into the window formed by mid-May’s gap up & will likely force re-test of the long-term trendline.

For this week the 200 Day moving average is a good place to look from a downside perspective, as the $498-500/share is going to be a pivotal support level.

QQQ has support at the $513.98 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2.75:1), $510.29 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2.75:1), $507.71 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.25:1) & $501.26/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.68:1) price levels, with resistance at the $530.45 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.33:1), $530.70 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.33:1), $533.03 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.33:1) & $536.78/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 6.67:1) price levels.

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF advanced +0.15% for the week, as there was a rotation into the small cap index after much of the past two months showed more people buying into its larger peers.

Their RSI is also declining back towards the neutral 50 level despite a stronger weekly performance than the aforementioned indexes & is currently at 54.31, while their MACD is bearish, and looks content on heading lower based on last week’s performance.

Volumes were +15.86% higher than the prior year’s average (35,410,000 vs. 30,562,351), but while Wednesday’s advancing volume led the pack in terms of strongest performing day, Friday’s risk-off move signaled that there is still quite a bit of uncertainty out there among market participants.

IWM saw a different type of week, bucking the trend of the major indexes declining for the week.

Monday opened on a gap up, and resulted ina high wave doji candle that closed in-line with the 10 day moving average, indicating that there was a strong tie to price & the short-term trendline & despite the wide trading range of the day the session produecd the lowest volume of the week.

Tuesday opened on a gap lower, attempted a run up to the resistance of the 10 day moving average, but promptly fell & resulted in a declining session.

Wednesday was the crown jewel of IWM’s week, as the session resulted in the week’s highest volume & a bullish engulfing candle, but there was a problem.

The 10 day moving average’s resistance held strong & to the downside market participants were willing to test the $207.50/share level, indicating that there was some pent up downside appetite that we had not been seeing previously.

Friday left a sour taste for IWM’s week, when the small cap index opened on a gap up in-line with the 10 day moving average, only to progress lower throughout the session & close -0.21% on the week’s second highest volume.

Risk-off into the weekend was the theme, and profits were taken to safety.

The coming week will likely hinge greatly on the other major indexes’ performances, but to the upside the $212.90/share level will be a target that needs to be overcome, as there are two resistance touch-points there.

After that the 200 day moving average comes into view, as the price has not been above the long-term trendline since February of 2025.

Consolidation looks much like SPY & QQQ’s short-term bearish head & shoulders formation forming from May’s gap up session.

To the downside the main place to keep an eye on is the 50 day moving average, as it is the gatekeeper to a Seller dominated price zone.

If it doesn’t hold up as support there is likely to be a run at the 52-week low given the unfilled gap from mid-April in the $187.50-190 range.

IWM has support at the $208.69 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.52:1), $201.90 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.23:1), $200.78 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.23:1) & $199.10/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.25:1) price levels, with resistance at the $209.55 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.52:1), $210.97 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.52:1), $212.90 (2 Touch-Points, Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.33:1) & $212.94/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.33:1) price levels.

DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF fell -0.25%, breaking just below its long-term trendline to close out the week, which will lead into an interesting new week.

Their RSI is flat at 50.68, straddling the neutral 50-level, while their MACD is bearish & stretching lower indicating that there is likely more short-term pain to come.

Volumes were -4.14% below the prior year’s average levels (3,057,500 vs. 3,189,681), which paints an interesting picture given Friday had the best volume of the week on an advancing session, but given that it closed below both its opening price & the 200 DMA paints a gloomy picture.

DIA’s week kicked off on a gap up open on the second highest volume of the week, which was able to temporarily break above the 10 day moving average’s resistance, but the proved to be short-lived and profit taking forced the session to close near the previous Friday’s open.

Tuesday opened on a gap down, but showed mixed signals as the lowest volume session of the week tested the resistance of the 10 day moving average but was rejected, before the 200 day moving average was tested & the long-term trendline showed signs of fatigue.

Wednesday was more of the same, but the real body of the session’s candle stayed on the lower end of the daily range, on slightly higher volume, indicating that there was a bit of hesitancy & risk aversion in the air.

Friday opened on a gap higher, but the week’s highest volume session resulted in a lot of profit-taking that drove prices to break down though the 200 day moving average temporarily, before closing lower than the day’s open just below the 200 day moving average.

Looking at their 10 day moving average vs. the 200 DMA we appear to have more pain on the horizon for DIA, but the upside case revolves heavily around breaking above the 200 & 10 day moving averages first, which appears unlikely without a massive shift in advancing volume.

Should we see that, the $430.83 is the high water target in the near-term.

The consolidation case also has the making of a bearish head & shoulders pattern emerging, with declines likely to come in the wake of the 10 DMA death crossing through the 200 DMA, but until then DIA will likely oscillate around & in between the two trendlines.

In the event of decline DIA has a bit of a headwind on the horizon, as once their first support levels is broken through the next 3+ are all in Seller dominated price zones, which will potentially lead to a re-test of the $410.48 or $406.35/share level, depending on where it manages to find footing.

DIA has support at the $418.41 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.7:1), $415.23 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2.43:1), $413.51 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2.43:1) & $412.66/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2.43:1) price levels, with resistance at the $421.92 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.5:1), $422.16 (200 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.5:1), $425.04 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.83:1) & $425.23/share (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.83:1) price levels.

The Week Ahead

Monday the week kicks off with S&P Flash U.S. Services PMI & S&P Flash U.S. Manufacturing PMI data at 9:45 am, followed by Existing Home Sales data at 10 am.

Commercial Metals & Fact set report earnings before Monday’s opening bell, followed by KB Home after the session’s close.

S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index (20 Cities) data comes out Tuesday morning at 9 am, before Fed President Hammack speaks at 9:15 am, Consumer Confidence data is released at 10 am, and Fed Chair Powell testifies to the House Financial Service Committee at 10 am as well.

Tuesday morning begins with earnings calls from Carnival & TD Synnex, before FedEx, AeroVironment, BlackBerry & Worthington Enterprises report after the closing bell.

Wednesday morning begins with New Home Sales data at 10 am.

General Mills, Paychex & Winnebago report earnings before Wednesday’s opening bell, followed by Micron Technology, H.B. Fuller, Jefferies, MillerKnoll, Steel case & Worthington Steel after the session closes.

Advanced U.S. Trade Balance In Goods, Advanced Retail Inventories, Advanced Wholesale Inventories, Initial Jobless Claims, Durable-Goods Orders, Core Durable-Goods Orders & GDP (Second Revision) data all come out Thursday at 8:30 am, before Fed President Hammack speaks at 9 am & Pending Home Sales data at 10 am.

Acuity, Lindsay Corp., McCormick & Walgreens Boots Alliance report earnings before Thursday morning’s opening bell, before Nike & Concentrix report after the session’s closing bell.

Friday the week winds down with Personal Income, Personal Spending, PCE Index, PCE Year-over-Year, Core PCE Index & Core PCE Index (Year-over-Year) at 8:30 am before Consumer Sentiment (Final) data comes out at 10 am.

Apogee Enterprises reports earnings on Friday morning.

See you back here next week!

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM OR DIA AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***