Another week of earnings calls, inflation data & international relations news awaits us, after a Monday holiday in the United States.
One of the best indicators on market sentiment is going to lie in the volume levels of the index-based ETFs, as inflows & outflows there will reflect the broader market’s feelings on the headlines.
SPXL, the Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 3x Shares ETF has been trading at higher than average volumes so far in 2022, mostly on weakness.
Their MACD implies that there will be more volatility coming in the week ahead.
TQQQ, the ProShares UltraPro QQQ ETF has also had similar fate, although a bit more extreme as we kicked off 2022.
Their MACD is about to bearishly cross, although their futures are looking up in Wednesday’s pre-market trading.
Gold Miners (NUGT), Copper Miners (CPOX), South Africa (EZA) & Greece (GREK) Bullishly Leading The Pack
NUGT, the Direxion Daily Gold Miners Index Bull 2X ETF has rebounded coming into February 2022, after starting the year off on a sluggish foot.
Their RSI is showing that they’ve become a bit overbought, but with a still bullish MACD & the 10 Day MA moving in on the 200 day on high trading volume, there may be momentum to reach $61.94.
COPX, the Global X Copper Miners ETF has also made a strong recovery in February, after starting the year off down.
Their MACD looks to be about to bearishly cross, which should be an interesting one to watch play out given the nature of the Russian sanctions that we are seeing.
I’ll be keeping an eye on their RSI as it approaches neutral territory again in the coming days to see if it can regather momentum.
EZA, the iShares MSCI South Africa ETF has been on a bullish run since the middle of December 2021, gaining 18.7%.
EZA’s MACD is beginning to curl over bearishly after 2 days of declines, which may signal buying opportunities as it establishes a new range in the $52-54 price levels, with a 1.82% cushion provided by their dividend yield.
GREK, the Global X MSCI Greece ETF has also experienced strength since November 2021, gaining ~17%.
Last week they had a bearish MACD crossover, and their RSI has come back to neutral.
If their price can stay above the 10 Day Moving Average they look to have more momentum to come in the near-term.
Russia (RUSL), Social Media (SOCL), Sports Betting & iGaming (BETZ) & Solar (TAN) Sub-Industries All Bearishly Lagging The Pack
RUSL, the Direxion Daily Russia Bull 2X Shares ETF has been falling since November 2021, with what looks like more pain to come as their MACD crosses bearishly.
This one looks to be a bit too uncertain at this time, given the nature of the international sanctions being discussed, and they only offer a 1.43% cushion via the dividend.
SOCL, the Global X Social media Index ETF has also been experiencing weakness since November 2021.
SOCL is also faced with more bearish momentum, with their MACD crossing bearishly, and their RSI showing more room to fall in the near-term.
BETZ, the Roundhill Sports Betting & iGaming ETF has been weak since October of 2021, and does not look ready to begin rallying again just yet.
Last Friday’s gap down day indicates that there will be more losses for BETZ in the near-term, as their indicators are all currently bearish.
TAN, the Invesco Solar ETF has underperformed since November of 2021.
While they have been improving slightly in February 2022, their MACD signals that they’re going to be experiencing more losses in the near-term.
Tying It All Together
The rest of this week will prove to be interesting, as futures are currently up (Wednesday at 9:02am), as it’s being reported that the sanctions that have been announced were softer than what was anticipated.
Between earnings calls, the Ukrainian situation, PMI numbers & inflation related reports on Friday we look to have a rocky short trading week ahead of us.
I’ll be paying attention to the volume levels of the index-tracking ETFs for clues about market sentiment throughout the rest of the week.