Author: OptimizedValue

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF added +1.74% this week, while the VIX closed at 20.78, indicating an implied one day move range of +/-1.31% & an implied one month move range of +/-6.01%.

Their RSI is just above the neutral 50-mark & sits currently at 53.42, while their MACD is still bearish.

Volumes were +39.15% higher than the prior year’s average (91,420,000 vs. 65,697,291), with Thursday’s declining session leading the week in terms of highest volume level.

Monday the week began on a slightly optimistic note, as a bullish harami pattern formed with Friday’s massive declining candle, but on one of the lowest volume sessions of the week, indicating hesitency on the part of market participants.

Tuesday opened lower, tested lower to down by the support of the 50 day moving average, before climbing higher to take a stab at the 10 day moving average’s resistance & closed higher than it opened, but still down -0.12% day-over-day.

Wednesday opened on a gap up in-line with the 10 day moving average’s support, temporarily broke out above it intraday, but ulimately closed lower than it opened after making a run down below the $659/share level.

Volumes also remained lackluster.

Thrusday again opened in-line with the 10 day moving average’s resistance, temporarily broke out above it, before Sellers stepped in majorly & forced a -0.68% decline on the strongest volume of the week.

A mixture of pessimism & profit taking led to the day’s decline, as was noted by Friday’s session, where a down open resulted in a gain of +0.57% that closed in-line with the 10 day moving average’s resistance.

Heading into a new week the upside case revolves around SPY’s price first being supported by the 10 DMA & establishing some advancing volume as a foundation to make a run at their all-time high of $673.95/share.

The consolidation case looks a lot like what we saw last week, where SPY oscillated between the 10 & 50 day moving averages awaiting an upside/downside catalyst.

The downside case gets interesting should the support of the 50 DMA break down, as that & the next support levels below are still relatively untested & the following level of support sits in a price zone favored by Sellers historically (1.25:1).

This leaves $617.58/share as the gatekeeper separating SPY from a support zone established from a late 2024/early 2025 consolidation range.

The real concerning issue at hand is that this then brings the 200 Day moving average’s support into the picture, which opens up the potential risk of a breakdown in the long-term trendline.

SPY has support at the $653.53 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $653.17 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $638.08 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.25:1) & $617.58/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.8:1) price levels, with resistance at the $665.35 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $673.95/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF advanced +2.45% for the week, faring the strongest of the major index ETFs.

Their RSI is 56.08 & trending higher, while their MACD remains bearish following the previous Friday’s declines.

Volumes were +57.78% higher than the previous year’s average (68,176,000 vs. 43,210,438), with two of the top three highest days being declining volume, which is something to consider when trying to ascertain the current market sentiment.

Monday the week opened similar to SPY with a bullish harami pattern forming with Friday’s large bearish engulfing candle, setting the tone for a similar consolidation range.

Tuesday opened on a gap lower, retreated down to take a shot thought the $590/share level, but found support at $590.13/share.

Wednesday opened on a gap higher, temporarily broke out above the resistance of the 10 day moving average, but saw profit taking force QQQ below $600/share temporarily, and ultimately close lower than the session opened.

Thursday saw QQQ open on another gap higher, test a little higher intraday, before profit taking & risk aversion forced prices lower on the day down -0.68%.

The week wound down on the highest volume session of the week, where QQQ opened on a gap down & was able to trudge higher to close just above the support of the 10 DMA.

Much like SPY, QQQ’s near-term future relies heavily on the strength of the support of the 10 DMA, as without it making another run at their all-time high is impossible.

As has been noted several times over the past months, there will also need to be more advancing volume to support any runs at all-time highs as well if they are to remain sustainable, with QQQ’s current high water mark being $613.18, a +1.53% advance from Friday’s closing price.

The consolidation case looks like a continuation of last week, where QQQ oscillates around & in between the 10 & 50 day moving averages.

QQQ’s downside case is also similar to SPY’s in that the 50 day moving average’s support is in focus & climbing higher.

The $582.64 mark is also going to be of importance as a support level, as should that give out QQQ enters a Seller dominated zone historically at $575-579.99, which has one Buyer zone buffering it from the Seller zones of $560-564.99 & $565-569.99/share, which is prices decline to those levels a bearish head & shoulders pattern will emerge.

QQQ has support at the $603.00 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $590.13 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $586.98 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $582.64/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2:0*) price levels, with resistance at the $613.18/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF gained +2.36% last week, as the small cap index was second fiddle to the tech-heavy NASDAQ.

Their RSI is trending down towards the neutral 50-mark & currently sits at 51.84, while their MACD has been bearish & unable to break out above the signal line since the third week of September.

Volumes were +44.34% higher than the previous year’s average (47,022,000 vs. 32,578,088), which should be cause for concern given that the two highest volume sessions were the declines of Thursday & Friday.

Much like SPY & QQQ, IWN started the week off forming a bullish harami pattern with a giant declining candle from the previous Friday’s session on the week’s lightest volume, but was able to close above the 10 day moving average’s support.

Tuesday opened on a gap lower, tested lower to almost $240/share, before ripping through the 10 DMA again, making a run at the $250/share level & ultimately forming a bullish engulfing pattern day-over-day.

Volumes remained underwhelming & Wednesday confirmed that there was indeed much in the way of concern among market participants.

Wednesday opened on a gap up above IWM’s all-time high, setting a new all-time high at $252.77/share, but forming a high wave doji for the day, indicating that there was a tight battle between bulls & bears that resulted in agreement being made at ~$250.30-36 based on open & closing prices.

It should also be noted that although subtle, Wednesday’s session did close lower than it opened, setting the stage for the end of the week’s slide.

Tursday saw things begin to unwind for IWM, as a gap up open quickly turned into profit taking mania that saw IWM temporarily break down below the support of the 10 day moving average, and market participants were eager to take risk off of the table.

Friday the small cap names also had a tough time, opening on a gap lower & on the highest volume of the week being unable to break above the resistance of the 10-day moving average which they’d just recently been soaring above on the highest volume of the week.

Everybody was looking for the exit & capital preservation came to the fore walking into the weekend.

Heading into a new week the upside case is strangely similar to SPY & QQQ’s, IWM needs to break above the 10 DMA, establish support with the help of some increased advancing volume & then make a run at the all-time high.

The consolidation case at this stage will feature oscillations between the 10 & 50 day moving averages, awaiting an upside or downside catalyst; if the 10 or the 50 DMA become favored & oscillated around you may find a clue about what’s coming next, particularly should they spread apart.

The downside case for IWM becomes interesting, as zooming out & taking in the 1 year daily chart there could be a head & shoulders pattern emerging with Wednesday being the head & there are some interesting gaps left unfilled from since June, making the moving averages an important place to focus.

The 10 DMA has already broken down, making the 50 DMA the next most important, particularly as they become closer together & a trend reversal occurs.

The way that IWM advances more slowly in almost creeping oscillations higher helps them by providing more support levels to rely upon vs. SPY or QQQ, but if there is a shock in the larger two indexes there is likely to be issues for their small cap counterparts.

IWM has support at the $242.35 (Volume Sentim8ent: Buyers, 0.4:0*), $239.79 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.1:1), $237.56/5 (*2, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.1:1) & $237.33/share (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.1:1) price levels, with resistance at the $245.17 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $248.48 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $252.77/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF had the weakest week, climbing only +1.52%.

Their RSI has just crossed back above the neutral 50 mark & currently sits at 52.19, while their MACD is still bearish, having spent much of October that way.

Volumes were +100.98% higher than the prior year’s average (7,376,000 vs. 3,670,040), which is something tobehold & ponder, given that most of it came on Friday’s squeeze into the weekend advancing session.

Monday the week kicked off similarly to the other three majors, forming a bullish harami pattern with Friday’s candle on volumes that were lackluster vs the other sessions of the week.

Tuesday resulted in a bullish engulfing pattern that temporarily was able to break out above the resistance of the 10 DMA, but that also temporarily brokedown through the support of the 50 day moving average to the downside, as clearly some pro taken based on the week’s third highest volume.

Wednesday opened on a gap up, broke out temporarily above the $465/share level, but was unable to maintain the gains & broke towards $460/share but managed to settle lower than it opened & +0.00% on the day.

Thursday the cracksbegin to emerge though, as the week’s second highest volume saw DIA open just above the 10 DMA & proceed to slump below it & make a run down towards the 50 day moving average’s support.

Moving into a new week, the upside case is similar to the three majors above, sustained higher volume from advancing sessions is needed to push DIA back to new all-time highs, and a bearish pendant may be forming from the past month, which to overcome will require a strong push of volume to overcome the 10 DMA’s resistance.

The consolidation case is also the same as those above, look for oscillations between the 10 & 50 MAs until an upside or downside catalyst causes a breakout.

If the two moving averages begin to diverge you’ll be wise to follow which one price hugs most for clues into what comes next.

The downside case is also similar, but hinges upon if the “buy and hold” blue chip names see a bank run, where the 50 day moving average’s support comes into play as an important support levels, as if it doesn’t hold up the 10 DMA is already look at turning bearishly through it, sending DIA’s price lower in the short-term.

After the 50 day moving averagee, the gatekeeper support level to potential trouble is the $448.85/share level, as should that break down, the $436-439.99/share & the 440-443.99/share zones are both skewed towards Sellers historically, which also calls the long-term trendline into play, currently at $432.03.

DIA has support at the $456.61 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $454.41 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $448.55 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.09:1) & $445.13/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.24:1) price levels, with resistance at the $462.33 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $470.22/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

The Week Ahead

Monday kicks the week off with U.S. Leading Economic Indicators at 10 am.

Cleveland-Cliffs reports earnings before Monday’s opening bell, followed by BOK Financial, Cadence Bank, Crown, RLI, Steel Dynamics, W.R. Berkley, Wintrust Financial & Zions Bancorp after the session’s close.

There is no major economic data due for release on Tuesday

Tuesday morning’s earnings calls include 3M, Badger Meter, Balchem, Coca-Cola, Community Financial System, Danaher, Elevance Health, Equifax, Forestar, GATX, GE Aerospace, General Motors, Halliburton, Lockheed Martin, Mattel, NASDAQ, Northrop Grumman, PACCAR, Pentair, Philip Morris International, PulteGroup, Quest Diagnostics, RTX & Valmont, followed by NetFlix, Agree Realty, Canadian National Railway, Capital One, Cathay Bancorp, Chubb, East West Banc, EQT, Fulton Financial, Manhattan Associates, Matador Resources, National Bank, Omnicom, Pathward Financial, Pegasystems, PennyMac, Texas Instruments, Vicor & Western Alliance Bancorp after the closing bell. 

Wednesday will also be quiet on the economic data front.

Amphenol, AT&T, Avery Dennison, BankUnited, Boston Scientific, CME Group, GE Vernova, Healthcare Services Group, Hilton, Lennox International, Lithia Motors, M/I Homes, Moody’s, Northern Trust, OFG Bancorp, Old National Bancorp, PROG Holdings, Rogers Communications, Taylor Morrison Home, Teledyne Technologies, Thermo Fisher, Travel + Leisure, UniFirst, United Community Banks, Vertiv, Wabtec & Winnebago all report earnings Wednesday morning, followed by Alcoa, ASGN, Banc of California, CACI, Century Communities, Churchill Downs, Core Labs, Crown Castle, Equity Lifestyle Properties, Essential Properties Realty Trust, First American Financial, FirstEnergy, Globe Life, Goosehead Insurance, Graco, Helix Energy, Hexcel, International Business Machines, ICON, Kaiser Aluminum, Kinder Morgan, Knight-Swift, Lam Research, Las Vegas Sands, Lending Club, Medpace, Molina Healthcare, O’Reilly Automotive, Oceaneering International, Packaging, Plexus, QuantumScape, Raymond James, Reliance, Ribbon Communications, Robert Half, SAP, SEI Investments, Selective Insurance, Sonoco Products, Tesla, Texas Capital, United Rentals, Viking Therapeutics, Waste Connections, WD-40, WesBanco & Wyndham Hotels & Resorts after the closing bell.  

Initial Jobless Claims data comes out Thursday at 8:30 am, followed by Existing Home Sales at 10 am.

Thursday morning begins with Allegion, AllianceBernstein, American Airlines, Ardagh Metal Packaging, Atlantic Union Bancshares, AutoNation, Blackstone, Bread Financial, Brunswick, Carpenter Technology, CBRE Group, CenterPoint, Darling Ingredients, Dover, Dow, Euronet, Expro Group, First Bancorp, FirstService, Freeport-McMoRan, FTI Consulting, Garrett Motion, Gentherm, Hasbro, Honeywell, IMAX, Integer Holdings, Iridium Communications, Lazard, Lindsay, Millrose Properties, Mobileye Global, MSC Industrial, Nokia, Old Republic, PG&E, Pool, Popular, Roper Technologies, Ryder System, Simply Good Foods, Sonic Automotive, STMicroelectronics, T-Mobile US, TechnipFMC, Teck Resources, Textron, Tractor Supply, TransUnion, TRI Pointe Homes, Union Pacific, Valero Energy, Valley National, Visteon & West Pharmaceutical Services on the earnings front, before Newmont, Alaska Air, Associated Banc-Corp, Baker Hughes, Community Health, Coursera, Customers Bancorp, Deckers Outdoors, Digital Realty Trust, EastGroup, Elme Communities, Enova International, First Financial Bancorp, Ford Motor, Healthpeak Properties, Hilltop Holdings, Intel, Kinsale Capital, Knowles, MaxLinear, McGrath RentCorp, Minerals Technologies, Nextracker, Norfolk Southern, Phillips Edison, Sallie Mae, SS&C Technologies Holdings, VeriSign, Western Union, World Kinect & WSFS Financial host their calls after the session’s close.  

Friday begin with Consumer Price Index, CPI Year-over-Year, Core CPI & Core CPI Year-over-Year data at 8:30 am, before S&P Flash U.S. Services PMI & S&P Flash U.S. Manufacturing PMI data at 9:45 am & Consumer Sentiment (final) data at 10 am.

Booz Allen Hamilton, First Hawaiian, Flagstar Financial, General Dynamics, Gentex, HCA, Illinois Tool Works, Moog, Procter & Gamble, Sanofi & Stellar Bank all report earnings before Monday’s opening bell.

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM OR DIA AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF dipped -0.28% last week, while the VIX closed at 15.29, indicating a one day implied move range of +/-0.96% & a one month implied move range of +/-4.42%.

Their RSI is trending towards the overbought 70 mark & is currently at 63.05, while their MACD is bearish.

Volumes were +16.87% higher than the prior year’s average (74,194,000 vs. 63,483,745), which is cause for concern given that three of the week’s sessions resulted in declines.

Monday the week kicked off on a note of muted enthusiasm, as the session did not produce noteworthy volume but formed a bullish engulfing candle pattern with the previous Friday.

Tuesday the theme continued, as a bearish harami pattern emerged for SPY on the week’s second highest volume, setting the stage for the remainder of the week.

Wednesday opened lower & declined down to temporarily break through the 10 day moving average’s support, signaling that the strength in the sentiment behind the short-term trend is beginning to falter.

Thursday confirmed this when a gap down open below the 10 DMA was unable to recover to test its resistance & a spinning top candle emerged from the wreckage on the week’s strongest volume.

Friday opened on a gap up & the week ended on a +0.57% advance heading into the weekend on lackluster volume.

While SPY managed to close just above the 10 DMA’s support, the low participation rate among investors signals that there is quite a bit of uneasiness emerging in the market.

Heading into the new week the upside case remains as it has been for months now, in order to continue seeing new all time highs we will need strong advancing volume that is consistent, particularly now that the 10 day moving average is beginning to show signs of weakness.

The consolidation case looks a bit like what we witnessed beginning last week, where SPY will oscillated around the 10 day moving average awaiting an upside or downside catalyst, which this week may come in the form of a Government shutdown in the US, earnings calls that show weakness among the consumer (Nike, food companies etc…) or data that hints at employment troubles, which is something market participants have had on their mind of recent following the FOMC interest rate decision from two weeks ago.

To the downside the first area to watch is the 50 day moving average in the event that the 10 DMA breaks down, as it is currently in a price zone with limited historic data on volume sentiment making it a wild card.

Should it break down, the $638.08/share support levels is in a zone that is historically Seller oriented (1.24:1), which may find SPY being led down to $617.58/share.

This brings the support zone of $605.47-607.90/share into focus, as they are the top two points of a consolidation range of November 2024-February 2025.

The table below has more details on SPY’s historic volume sentiment.

SPY has support at the $660.98 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $642.81 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $638.08 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.24:1) & $617.58/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.8:1) price levels, with resistance at the $662.37 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $667.34/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF fell -0.56% last week, having the second worst week of the major index ETFs.

Their RSI is trending back towards the overbought 70 mark, currently at 64.18, while their MACD is bullish, but flat & their histogram is showing signs of weakness.

Volumes were +42.07% higher than the previous year’s average (59,092,000 vs. 41,409,402), which like SPY is cause for concern due to the declining sessions of the week & the breakdown of the 10 day moving average’s implied weakness.

Monday the week kicked off advancing higher on the week’s third highest volume, which was the highest advancing volume session.

Tuesday showed the same weakness as SPY, when QQQ saw profits taken & a flight to safety by market participants on the week’s second highest volume.

Wednesday the declines continued & the 10 day moving average’s support was tested, but was able to hold up & still serve as support.

Thursday opened on a gap down to below the 10 day moving average, signaling that there was a lack of faith in the short-term moving average.

The day tested to below the $590/share level, but was able to temporarily break above the 10 DMA’s resistance & closed higher than it opened, all on the week’s highest volume, indicating that there was uncertainty & people are feeling uneasy.

Friday opened in-line with the 10 DMA, tested lower to the $590-level, but was able to rally higher to close above the 10 DMA, but the weak volume behind the move signals that there is still quite a bit of uncertainty & fear in the market.

Heading into the new week QQQ’s case looks much like SPY’s & is similar on the upside as its been for months, to continue making new all-time highs we will need to see continued, sustained higher advancing volume as confirmation that there is confidence behind these moves up.

The consolidation case remains similar as well, where we will watch the see QQQ oscillate around the 10 DMA & possibly between it & the 50 DMA while awaiting an upside or downside catalyst.

In terms of a move downwards the 50 DMA will also be an area of importance in the coming week(s) as it resides in a Seller dominated zone historically, and in the event that it breaks down the next support levels is the gatekeeper to the $560-569.99/share price zones which are also historically in favor of Seller activity, which leads us to $558.19 & $551.04.

The latter is also in a Seller zone & is the gatekeeper to the gap up that’s gone unfilled from June of 2025, which is not the most supportive of near-to-mid-term pictures.

QQQ has support at the $595.01 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $582.64 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2:0*), $575.26 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.3:1) & $573.96/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.79:1) price levels, with resistance at the $596.30 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $602.87/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF declined -0.67% last week, as the small cap index was the least favored among the four majors.

Their RSI is trending higher towards overbought conditions & currently sits at 59.27, while their MACD is bearish following Tuesday, Wednesday & Thursday’s declines.

Volumes were +24.39% higher than the prior year’s average (39,332,000 vs. 31,620, 876), which shares similar concerns with SPY & QQQ in a rare overlap between the three indexes, except IWM’s advancing session on Monday was the strongest volume performance of the week.

Monday the week opened lower, tested lower, but found legs & rallied on the week’s highest volume to close just below the $245/share level after temporarily crossing above it.

Tuesday opened at $245.01 & ran up as high as $247.18, a new all-time high, before profit taking sank IWM’s ship & forced decline heading into the close on the week’s second highest volume.

Wednesday the pain continued for IWM & the small caps, as the high end of the day didn’t even make it to $245 & it declined down to within striking distance of the support of the 10 day moving average.

Thursday the wheels came off & IWM opened on a gap down below the 10 day moving average’s resistance, tested as low as $237.55/share, but was able torecover to close below the 10 DMA but higher than its opening price of the day.

Friday was relatively quiet, as the week’s lowest volume session opened higher & gained +0.86% heading into the weekend, but was unable to close above the 10 day moving average’s resistance, indicating that the near-term trendline is losing power.

Heading into the new week the upside case is the same as SPY & QQQ’s, but is also stronger if they’re also reaching new all-time highs, as IWM tends to follow them from a slightly slower pace & the market is relatively in a full court press.

The consolidation case also slightly hinges on the other three major indexes, but it follows the logic of oscillating around the 10 DMA & in between it & the 50 DMA as it draws nearer & we await an upside or downside catalyst.

To the downside, the 50 DMA is the first major test given that it is going to continue marching higher for some time& setting a resistance levels wherever it settles when price is able to climb high enough to catch it.

The $226.07-228.90 zone is going to be important for support, particularly as the $224-227.99/share price zone is the weakest Buyer dominated level aside from the $232-235.99/share zone, which increases the likelihood of a breakdown once price enters it.

In the event that prices decline that far, the 200 day moving average enters the picture, and the long-term trend line is going to become a more important part of the near-term outlook based on IWM’s historic performance.

IWM has support at the $239.79 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.1:1), $237.55 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.1:1), $230.29 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.27:1) & $228.90/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.27:1) price levels, with resistance at the $241.41 (Volume Sentiment: ), $242.35 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.4:0*) $247.18/share (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF stumbled -0.14%, having the best week of the majors.

Their RSI is climbing higher at 61.4, while their MACD is currently bearish but flat.

Volumes were +35.2% higher than the prior year’s average levels (4,674,000 vs. 3,457,012), which is problematic given the top three highest volume sessions came on declines.

DIA’s week began on a bullish engulfing candle pattern, but it was on the week’s lowest volume & it showed that there was appetite to test the support of the 10 day moving average, which means folks were getting antsy.

The next day opened higher, hit a new all-time high at $467.00, but steadily declined on the highest volume of the week throughout the rest of the session as market participants took profits down from the table.

Wednesday the theme continued with DIA being unable to break above $465/share & closing in-line with the supporat of the 10 day moving average.

Thursday the cracks began to show in the blue chip index, as DIA opened on a gap down below the 10 day moving average, on the week’s second highest volume.

Friday the week ended on an underwhelming attempt at optimism, with a gap up open in-line with the 10 MDA that dipped lower before climbing higher to close as a spinning top, indicating that there was still more indecision among market participants & that conviction was still among the missing.

Heading into the new week the upside case is the same as all of the three above, without sustainable increased volume levels to the upside confidence looks to be lacking in this current environment, making further upside moves look untrustworthy.

The consolidation case features oscillations around the 10 DMA & possibly between the 10 & 50DMA’s as they draw nearer to one another.

To the downside, all eyes go to the 50 DMA as well, followed by the zone between $445-445.28/share, as should that break down DIA enters a Seller dominated zone atop another Seller zone that begins at $436/share, making the 200 day moving average then within striking distance.

DIA has support at the $460.97 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $450.53 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.9:1), $448.70 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.09:1) & $445.28/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.24:1) price levels, with resistance at the $463.41 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $467.00/share (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

The Week Ahead

Monday the week begins with Pending Home Sales data at 10 am.

Carnival reports earnings Monday morning before the session opens, followed by Jefferies, Progress Software & Vail Resorts after the closing bell.

S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index (20 Cities) data comes out at 9 am Tuesday, before Chicago Business Barometer (PMI) data at 9:45 am and Job Openings & Consumer Confidence data at 10 am.

Tuesday morning begins with earnings from Lamb Weston, Paychex & United Natural Foods, before Nike reports after the closing bell.

Wednesday morning features ADP Employment data at 8:15 am, S&P Final U.S. Manufacturing PMI data at 9:45 am, and Construction Spending & ISM Manufacturing data at 10 am.

Acuity, Cal-Maine Foods, Conagara & RPM Inc. all report earnings before Wednesday’s opening bell, before Levi Strauss reports after the session’s close.

Initial Jobless Claims data comes out Thursday at 8:30 am, followed by Factory Orders data at 10 am.

Thursday morning features earnings from AngioDynamics.

Friday ends the week with U.S. Employment Report, U.S. Unemployment Rate, U.S. Hourly Wages & Hourly Wages Year-over-Year data at 8:30 am, before S&P Final U.S. Services PMI data at 9:45 am & ISM Services data at 10 am & there are no major earnings reports scheduled for release.

See you back here next week!

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM OR DIA AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***