Author: OptimizedValue

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF climbed +0.71% on the week, while the VIX closed at 17.44, indicating an implied one day move range of +/-1.1% & an implied one month move range of +/-5.04%.

Their RSI is trending higher at 61.43, while their MACD is flat & looking set to bearishly cross through the signal line in the coming day or two.

Volumes were +8.99% higher than the prior year’s average (72,968,000 vs. 66,946,693), which does not paint a strong picture & indicates that there was a lot of profit taking last week due to each day’s performance.

Monday the week began on a gap up to above $680/share, but the week volume was unconvincing of the move higher & its staying power.

Tuesday followed suit, opening on a gap higher & ultimately closing the day as a spinning top candle, indicating temporary equilibrium, with a touch of uncertainty, which was also confirmed by the other lowest volume of the week with Monday’s session.

Caution had begun to creep into the market regarding SPY & its component stocks, with additional warning signs creeping into play on Friday, where 3.37% of SPY component stocks hit fresh 52-week highs, while 6.15% hit fresh 52-week lows.

Technology & AI names had been responsible for the market to grind higher, while under the hood the broader index was not performing as strongly.

Wednesday the cracks became exposed when SPY opened on a gap up, ran at the $690/share level, but was stopped short, increasing their all-time high to $689.70, but closing lower than it opened & forming a hanging man candle, indicating that bearishness had finally set in.

There was a surge in profit taking Wednesday as well, as the session had the highest volume of the week in reaction to earnings reports & their relation to what the currently unreported government economic data may be based on their clues.

Thursday offered confirmation of this, as SPY opened on a gap lower, temporarily fought higher, but bears set in & forced the day down -1.1% on the week’s third highest volume, as folks were making their way towards the exit.

Friday opened on a slight gap up, but fear spread into the market & folks began selling, forcing price down to make a run at the 10 day moving average’s support & closing lower than the day opened.

Moving into a new week, in the event that the 10 DMA’s support is able to sustain then & SPY’s charts can broaden may be able to make another attempt at an all-time high, but it will need solid advancing volume & less profit taking in the near-future following the move to continue higher.

The consolidation case looks like SPY oscillating around the 10 DMA, awaiting a signal in the near-term trend to serve as a catalyst higher or lower while the 50 day moving average creeps higher from just -2.45% below.

What that catalyst may be will be interesting to see, as there are a littany of earnings reports across a wide variety of sectors, industries & market cap sizes, there is U.S. Services data coming out, which has been an area of interest in discussing the inputs to inflation & how they’re reacting to policy differently.

There are also a handful of Federal Reserve speakers this week & given that the government shutdown appears to be continuing on there will be a lot of data that is not reported for the week, which may leave investor unwinding earnings calls & other data announcements to try to piece together how the economy is running.

To the downside, in the event that the support of the 10 DMA gives out, all eyes should fall on the 50 DMA’s support, which will continue climbing higher in the meantime lagging SPY’s price.

While it resides in a Buyer oriented zone from the past ~3 years, if it shows weakness SPY enters back-to-back Seller zones (2.4:1 & 1.57:1), which then makes $638.08 an area of interest, as it becomes the gatekeeper to the next support levels & zone.

SPY has support at the $678.10 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $673.95 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.5:1), $661.49 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.58:1) & $653.17/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.57:1) price levels, with resistance at the $689.70/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF advanced +1.94% on the week, faring the strongest of the major indexes.

Their RSI is trending higher & currently sits at 63.97, while their MACD is bullish, but has flattened & has a waning histogram, indicating weakness on the near-term horizon & like we may see a bearish run at the signal line in the coming days.

Volumes were +39.31% higher than the prior year’s average (61,652,000 vs. 44,256,454), which like SPY may prove to be indicative of weakness, as their advancing/declining volume sessions mirrored one another.

Monday QQQ opened the week on a gap up, but was unable to break above the $630/share level on low volume, indicating that there was a bit on uneasiness still in the air, following the gap post consolidation to end the prior week.

Tuesday also opened on a gap up to above $630 & continued higher, but the day’s upper shadow showed that the bears were beginning to take over & trim some of their recent profits after three consecutive gap ups.

Wednesday also opened on a gap up, and the highest volume session of the week made a run higher to try to break the $640/share level, but was stopped short at a new all-time high of $637.01/share, before profit taking setin & the day ended as a doji candle.

Thursday confirmed this, with QQQ gapping down & more Sellers stepping into the market to take profits from the table & take risk off of the table on the week’s third highest volume.

While day-over-day Friday was +0.48%, the session opened on a gap higher & proceeded to sink lower all day as more profits were taking & risk reduced, but unlike SPY, QQQ remained higher above the support of the 10 day moving average.

Heading into the new week, QQQ’s outlook is similar to SPY’s; the upside case requires more advancing volume with less profit taking in order to make another run higher, but the latter two sessions of the week could be forming the beginning of a broadening pattern, which will be something to keep an eye on.

The conolidation case is also similar, where a range continuing Thursday & Friday’s lead begins to oscillate around the 10 day moving average awaiting a signal of an upside or downside catalyst.

The downside case is also very similar, with QQQ’s 10 day moving average the first key support level, which should it give way puts $613.18 in the hot seat while the window created by the prior Friday fills, leading prices to ~$610/share & bringing the 50 day moving average’s support into question.

That will be a key area to watch as it is currently in a Seller zone (1.17:1) from this past year, which may lead to further selling, in which case $590.13 becomes the gatekeeper, as the $585-589.99/share zone is also Seller dominated (3.14:1).

QQQ has support at the $620.80 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $613.18 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.17:1), $596.46 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.17:1) & $590.13/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.04:1) price levels, with resistance at the $637.01/share (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF declined -1.28% last week, as the small cap index fell out of favor after being the strongest of the four majors the week prior.

Their RSI is trending higher from the neutral 50 level & sits currently at 52.37, while their MACD is bearish.

Volumes were +18.36% higher than the prior year’s average (39,284,000 vs. 33,190,239), which should raise some eyebrows given that the two highest volume sessions of the week were declining.

Monday began the week on a gap up open, but ti all went downhill from there & bears stepped in to force the session downhill & to close lower than it opened on the second lowest volume of the week, a reflection of profit taking from the prior Friday’s gap up session & fear beginning to surround the small cap names after a strong previous week.

Tuesday opened on a gap lower to below the $250/share level, attempted higher & was denied by the bears & ultimately settled down to result in a spinning top candle for the day, indicating that there was a lot of uncertainty in the market when combined with the week’s lowest Volume.

Wednesday began on another gap down, rallied higher to break above $250/share temporarily, before selling off to a daily low of $244.69/share, before recovering to close in-line with the 10 day moving average, signaling that the near-term trend had come under fire.

Thursday provided confirmation of this, as another gap down open resulted in IWM briefly climbing higher above the 10 day moving average’s resistance, but Sellers came in & fored IWM lower on more profit taking & the window formed the previous Friday was closed.

What’s alarming about Thursday’s show of weakness is that the day resulted in a spinning top candle on the low end of the day’s range, simultaneously on the week’s second highest volume, none of which paints a particularly rosy picture for the small cap index.

Friday confirmed this, as a gap up open tested lower, before running up higher to test the resistance of the 10 day moving average, but ultimately ended as a spinning top, signaling uncertainty heading into the weekend.

Heading into a new week the upside case for IWM also lies somewhat on the strength/weakness of SPY, QQQ & DIA, as we’re not at a stage in the market where a bank run on those would prop IWM higher, in fact it would make the small cap names appear even more risky in most cases (particularly when you reference the 52-week highs/lows from Friday mentioned above).

The consolidation case currently looks like IWM oscillating between the 10 & 50 day moving averages, as they await an upside or downside catalyst, as the medium-term trendline has crept to ~2% away from the short-term trendline.

The downside case will also rely heavily on the severity of the other major index’s losses, as IWM has more local support levels due to how it climbs slower & steadier than the other three.

In the event IWM declines, reference the table below for their historic Buyer:Seller (Seller:Buyer) sentiment at each price level that they’ve traded at over the past ~2 years.

IWM has support at the $242.45 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.19:1), $241.69 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.19:1), $240.76 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.19:1) & $239.79/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.56:1) price levels, with resistance at the $247.15 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $248.48 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $252.77/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF added +0.73% last week, as it was the second favorite among the major indexes.

Their RSI is currently flat at the 64.88 level, while their MACD is bullish, but beginning to show signs of a waning histogram & a possible bearish crossover by midweek.

Volumes were +114.45% higher than the prior year’s average (8,246,000 vs. 3,845,099.6), which is cause for concern given that the two of the three highest sessions were declining & clear profit taking with a side of being unenthused.

Monday the week opened on a gap higher, straddling the $475/share level & resulting in the lowest volume session of the week & a doji candle, indicating that ~$475/share is where market participants felt comfortable “waiting & seeing”.

Tuesday also opened on a gap higher, and began showing the faults in DIA’s foundation.

The week’s second highest volume came as profits from the three gap open in a row sessions began being ripped off of the table, and the $480/share level was not broken above.

Wednesday opened slightly higher, ran up to above $480/share, before tumbling to temporarily break down thought the $475/share level, as the profit taking of the day produced the highest volume session of the week & a clear indication that there was downside appetite in the air.

Thursday echoed this sentiment, where a gap down open managed to push higher to above $480/share, but profit-taking again set in intraday & forced a spinning top candle at the close, signaling that there was downside appetite, and a clear, general uncertainty in the air.

Friday this theme continued, where a gap up open resulted in a doji just above the $475/share level, leaving the question based on the body if it is a dragonfly doji that will prove higher in the near-term, or if the long lower shadow is hinting at further downside pain to come, as day-over-day lower highs & lower lows have both been a common story of the week.

Heading into the new week, the upside story remains the same & the story of last week’s volume plus lower highs/lows each day towards midweek to the end of the week makes it seem unlikely to occur.

The consolidation case looks like an extension of what we saw from Tuesday on, where DIA stays range bound & eventually oscillates around the 10 DMA as it awaits an upside/downside catalyst.

To the downside things become interesting, as the blue chip index is more likely to be “bought & held” than the other three aforementioned indexes, but given that its so near all-time highs any selloff may be veiwed as a chance at profits to investors & trigger a more serious move.

In the event that the 10 DMA gives way, watch to see if the 50 DMA is able to stop the bleeding & provide support.

If not, the $454.41/share level is up next for support & it resides in a Seller zone (1.1:1), which also makes the $448.55/share supportlevel the gatekeeper lower as it falls next in line.

DIA has support at the $472.11 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $470.22 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $461.94 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.36:1) & $454.41/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.1:1) price levels, with resistance at the $480.39/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

The Week Ahead

Monday the week begins with S&P Final U.S. Manufacturing PMI data at 9:45 am, before ISM Manufacturing & (pending government shutdown) Construction Spending data at 10 am & Fed Governor Cook speaking at 2pm.

Affiliated Managers, Ares Management, Axsome Therapeutics, BioCryst Pharma, Bruker, CNA Financial, Freshpet, fuboTV, Hess Midstream Partners, IDEXX Labs, Kontoor Brands, Krystal Biotech, Liquidia Technologies, Napco Security Systems, onsemi, Pediatrix Medical Group, Pinnacle West, Public Service & Vertex all report earnings before Monday’s opening bell, followed by Palantir Technologies, ADTRAN, Air Lease, Ameresco, Atlas Energy Solutions, Boise Cascade, BWX Technologies, Cabot, Capital Southwest Corp., Clorox, CNO Financial, Comstock, Corebridge Financial, Coterra Energy, Denny’s, Diamondback Energy, Eastman Chemical, Ensign Group, EverQuote, Exact Sciences, Fabrinet, Franco-Nevada, Goodyear Tire, Halozyme Therapeutics, Harmonic, Helios Technologies, Hims & Hers Health, Hologic, IAC Inc., ICHOR Corporation, Innovative Industrial Properties, Innovex International, Insperity, Inspire Medical Systems, JBT Marel Corporation, JELD-WEN, Kforce, Lattice Semi, National Storage Affiliates, Navitas Semiconductor, New Mountain Finance, ONE Gas, Ormat Tech, Otter Tail Power, Paymentus, PotlatchDeltic, Primoris Services, Qorvo, Realty Income, RingCentral, Ryman Hospitality, Sanmina, Sarepta Therapeutics, SBA Comm, Simon Properties, Syndax Pharmaceuticals, Tennant, UFP Technologies, Unum Group, V2X, Vertex Pharma, Viper Energy Partners, Vornado Rlty Trust, Voyager Technologies, Williams Cos, Xenon Pharmaceuticals & ZoomInfo after the session’s close.   

U.S. Trade Deficit data is scheduled for 8:30 am on Tuesday, followed by Factory Orders & Job Openings at 10 am (all of which are dependent on the government reopening).

Tuesday morning features earnings reports from AdaptHealth, ADM, ADT, Amicus Therapeutics, Anywhere Real Estate, Axcelis Tech, Ball Corp, Brightstar Lottery, Broadridge Financial, Capri Holdings, CDW, Colliers, Dave, Inc., Driven Brands, Eaton, Ecovyst, Enpro Inc., Exelon, Expeditors International, Ferrari, First Watch Restaurant Group, Fortis, Gartner, Genius Sports, Global Payments, Graphic Packaging, Hamilton Lane, Harley-Davidson, Harmony Biosciences, Henry Schein, Hertz Global, Hillman Solutions Corp., Ingredion, IPG Photonics, Knife River Corp., Kymera Therapeutics, LGI Homes, Life Time, Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Marathon Petroleum, Marriott, Martin Marietta, McGraw Hill, Molson Coors Brewing, MPLX LP, Netskope, NNN REIT, Norwegian Cruise Line, Novanta, Ocular Therapeutix, Pfizer, PJT Partners, Portillo’s, Premier, Rhythm Pharmaceuticals, Sealed Air, Shoals Technologies, Shopify, Silicon Labs, Sotera Health, Spotify, Stanley Black & Decker, SunCoke Energy, The Marzetti Company, Thomson Reuters, TIC Solutions, Inc., TopBuild, TPG Inc., Uber, UL Solutions Inc., Uniti Group, Vital Farms, Waters, Webull Corporation, WhiteFiber, Wingstop, Xometry, Yum China, Yum! Brands & Zoetis, before  A10 Networks, Advanced Energy, Advanced Micro Devices, AES, Aflac, Allegiant Travel, Amentum Holdings, American Financial, American International, Amgen, Andersons, Angi Inc., Arista Networks, Ashland, Assurant, Astera Labs, Aura Minerals, Axon, Benchmark Electronics, Cadre Holdings, California Resources, CareDx, CAVA Group, Chord Energy, Clean Energy Fuels, Corcept Therapeutics, Corsair Gaming, Corteva, Coupang, Day One Biopharmaceuticals, Douglas Emmett, Equitable Holdings, Essential Utilities, Eversource Energy, Everus, Exelixis, Flywire, GoodRx, Grocery Outlet, GXO Logistics, Hinge Health, Horace Mann, Innospec, Intapp, International Flavors, Jack Henry, Jackson Financial, Kinross Gold, Kodiak Gas Services, Kratos Defense and Security, Kyndryl, Limbach, Live Nation, LTC Properties, Lumentum, Macerich, MARA Holdings Inc., Masimo, MasterBrand, Match Group, Matson, Mercury, Mirum Pharmaceuticals, MNTN, Inc., Mosaic, NANO Nuclear Energy, NMI Holdings, O-I Glass, Orion Engineered Carbons, Ovintiv, Par Pacific, Paylocity, Perdoceo Education, Pinterest, PROCEPT BioRobotics, PTC Therapeutics, Qiagen, Qualys, Radian Group, Rapid7, Revolve Group, Rivian Automotive, Select Water Solutions, Sixth Street Specialty Lending, Skyline Champion, Skyworks, SM Energy, StubHub Holdings, Suncor Energy, Super Micro Computer, Supernus Pharma, Tanger Factory, Tempus AI, Teradata, The Baldwin Group, Toast, Trex, Ultragenyx Pharma, Upstart, Veracyte, Voya Financial, Western Midstream, XPLR Infrastructure, LP & Zeta Global report after the closing bell.

Wednesday brings us ADP Employment data at 8:15 am, S&P Final U.S. Services PMI data at 9:45 am & ISM Services data at 10 am.

McDonald’s, ACM Research, Acushnet, Adient, Alight, ArcBest, Ardmore Shipping, Arvinas, Avanos Medical, Avient, Avista, Bentley Systems, Bio-Techne, Brinks, Bullish, Bunge, Cameco, Caris Life Sciences, Cencora, Centuri Holdings, CGI Group, Charles River, Choice Hotels, Cinemark, DigitalOcean, Dine Brands, Dynatrace, Emerson, Establishment Labs, Fidelity National Info, Fiverr, Fortrea, Frontdoor, Green Plains, Humana, InMode, Iron Mountain, Johnson Controls, Jones Lang LaSalle, Kennametal, Klarna Group plc, Kornit Digital, Lemonade, Lineage, LivaNova, Louisiana-Pacific, Mannkind, Metsera, Middleby, National Vision, New York Times, Northwest Natural, Owens Corning, Parsons, Payoneer, Performance Food Group, Perrigo, Plains All American, PPL Corp, Recursion Pharmaceuticals, Royalty Pharma, Sabre, Scotts Miracle-Gro, Sempra Energy, Sleep Number, SolarEdge Technologies, Sonos, Southwest Gas, Sportradar Group AG, Steven Madden, Sunoco LP, Taboola, Teva Pharma, Trimble, Unity Software, Wolverine, XPEL & Zimmer Biomet all report earnings on Wednesday morning, followed by Robinhood Markets, Acadia Healthcare, ACADIA Pharmaceuticals, ACV Auctions, Adaptive Biotechnologies, ADMA Biologics, Albany International, Albemarle, Allstate, Almonty Industries, Alpha and Omega Semi, AMC Entertainment, Amcor, American States Water, Amplitude, APA Corp., AppLovin, Arm Holdings plc, Array Tech, Atmos Energy, B&G Foods, B2Gold, Barrett Business, Black Hills Corp, Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp, Bumble, Centrus Energy, Certara, CF Industries, Chime, Coherent, CONMED, CoreCivic, Corpay, Coty, Crane NXT, CRH Plc., CSG Systems, Curtiss-Wright, Cytokinetics, Deluxe, Devon Energy, DoorDash, Duolingo, Dutch Bros, e.l.f. Beauty, Encore Capital, Energy Transfer, Enersys, Enovix, Equinox Gold, Excelerate Energy, Fair Isaac, Fastly, Figma, Fortinet, Forward Air, Freshworks, Frontier Group Holdings, FS KKR Capital, Genco Shipping & Trading, GFL Environmental, Grand Canyon Education, Greif, Hecla Mining, Herbalife Nutrition, HighPeak Energy, Host Hotels, HubSpot, Informatica, Ingevity, Interparfums, IonQ, Jazz Pharma, Joby Aviation, Kemper, Kinetik, Klaviyo, LegalZoom.com, Light & Wonder, LiveRamp, Lucid Group, Lyft, Magnite, Manitowoc, Marqeta, Marriott Vacations, Maze Therapeutics, McKesson, MetLife, Miami International Holdings, MKS Inc., Murphy Oil, National Fuel Gas, NCR Atleos, Nutrien, Open Text, OPENLANE, Pattern Group, Paycom Software, Pebblebrook Hotel Trust, Penumbra, Permian Resources, Power Integrations, Primerica, Procore Technologies, PTC, Q2 Holdings, Qualcomm, QuidelOrtho, Rayonier, Remitly Global, Resideo, Revolution Medicines, RLJ Lodging Trust, Root, Inc., Royal Gold, RxSight, Sabra Health Care REIT, Safehold, Schrodinger, Seadrill Ltd, Sezzle, Sinclair Broadcast, SiTime, Slide Insurance Holdings, Snap, South Bow Corporation, Sprout Social, Steris, Sturm Ruger, Talen Energy, Talos Energy, Titan America, TKO Group Holdings, Tronox, Tutor Perini, U.S. Physical Therapy, Veeco Instruments, Vir Biotechnology, Warrior Met Coal, Watts Water Tech., Workiva & ZipRecruiter have their calls after the closing bell.  

Initial Jobless Claims & U.S. Productivity data are scheduled for release on Thursday at 8:30 am, before Wholesale Inventories data at 10 am (all dependent on the government shutdown ending), Fed President Williams speaking at 11 am, Fed President Paulson speaking at 4:30 pm & Fed President Musalem speaking at 5:30 pm.

Thursday morning’s earnings calls include AAON, ACI Worldwide, Advanced Drainage Systems, Air Products, Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Altice USA, Ameren, Americold Realty Trust, Appian, ArcelorMittal, Aspen Aerogels, AstraZeneca, ATS Corp, Autohome, BCE Inc, Becton Dickinson, BeOne Medicines, Bloomin’ Brands, Canada Goose, Canadian Natural Resources, Cars.com, Clear Secure, Cogent Communications, Collegium Pharmaceutical, Commerce.com, ConocoPhillips, Core Natural Resources, Cummins, D-Wave Quantum, Datadog, Dentsply Sirona, Ducommun, DuPont, Enovis Corporation, EPAM Systems, Evergy, Gogo, Granite Construction, Haemonetics, Hyatt Hotels, Insulet, International Seaways, Janus International Group, Kelly Services, Kenvue, Kimbell Royalty Partners, Krispy Kreme, Lamar Advertising, Lantheus Holdings, LifeStance Health Group, Ligand Pharma, Lightspeed, MACOM Technology, Marex Group plc, MasterCraft, MDU Resources, Moderna, N-able, NCR Voyix Corporation, NetScout Systems, Nexstar, Nomad Foods, Nova Measuring, NRG Energy, Olaplex, Oscar Health, Papa John’s, Parker-Hannifin, PENN Entertainment, Planet Fitness, Playtika, Prestige Consumer, Primo Brands Corporation, Privia Health, Ralph Lauren, Rockwell Automation, RXO, Inc., ScanSource, SharkNinja, Shift4 Payments, Somnigroup International, Stagwell, Stevanato Group S.p.A., Strategic Education, Sun Life, Tapestry, TC Energy, Tecnoglass, Teleflex, TripAdvisor, Under Armour, United Parks & Resorts Inc., US Foods, Vericel, Viatris, Vistra Corp., Walker & Dunlop, Warby Parker, Warner Bros. Discovery & YETI Holdings, with reports coming in from 10x Genomics, Affirm, Airbnb, Akamai Tech, Alarm.com, Alliant Energy, American Healthcare REIT, AMN Healthcare, Applied Optoelectronics, Archer Aviation, Arlo Technologies, Artivion, Assured Guaranty, Astrana Health, AvePoint, Barings BDC, Bill.com, BlackLine, Block, Brighthouse Financial, Camden Property, CarGurus, Celanese, Century Aluminum, Chemours, Chesapeake Utilities, Civitas Resources, Con Edison, Concentra, Crinetics Pharmaceuticals, Diamondrock Hospitality, Diodes, Doximity, DraftKings, Dropbox, EverCommerce, EVERTEC, Evolent Health, eXp World Holdings, Expedia Group, Fidelity National, FIGS, Inc., Five9, Flowers Foods, Fox Factory Holding, Gen Digital, Genpact, Globus Medical, Grindr, H & R Block, Huntsman, ICU Medical, indie Semiconductor, Innodata, IREN Limited, JFrog, Karman Space and Defense, Lemaitre Vascular, LifeMD, Lionsgate Studios, Mettler-Toledo, Microchip, Monster Beverage, MP Materials, National Health, NerdWallet, News Corp., nLIGHT, Northern Oil & Gas, NuScale Power, Omada Health, OneStream, Onto Innovation, Opendoor Technologies, OUTFRONT Media, Palomar Holdings, PAR Technology, Peloton, Pembina Pipeline, Progyny, QuinStreet, QXO, Inc, Rackspace Technology, RB Global, Solventum, SoundHound AI, StepStone Group, Sunrun, Sweetgreen, Synaptics, Take-Two, Tandem Diabetes Care, Texas Roadhouse, The Trade Desk, Trupanion, Universal Display, USA Rare Earth, Victory Capital, VTEX, Wheaton Precious Metals, WillScot Mobile Mini, Wynn Resorts, Xponential Fitness, Yelp, Ziff Davis & Zymeworks following the session’s close. 

Friday the week winds down with U.S. Employment Report Data, U.S. Unemployment Rate, U.S. Hourly Wages & Hourly Wages Year-over-Year at 8:30 am (all dependent on the government shutdown abating), before Fed President Logan speaks at 9:30 am, Consumer Sentiment (prelim) data is announced at 10 am & Consumer Credit data at 3pm.

Algonquin Power & Utilities, AMC Networks, American Axle, ANI Pharma, Atmus Filtration Technologies, Brookfield Infrastructure, CNH Industrial, Conduent, Constellation Energy, Delek US Holdings, DoubleVerify, Duke Energy, Enbridge, Essent Group, Fluor, Franklin Resources, Gray Media, KKR, Koppers Holdings, MarketAxess, Perella Weinberg Partners, Six Flags Entertainment, Sunstone Hotel, Sylvamo, Telephone & Data, Telus & Wendy’s all report their most recent before Friday’s opening bell.

See you back here next week!

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM OR DIA AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF added +1.94% this week, while the VIX closed the week at 16.37, indicating an implied one day move range of +/-1.03% & an implied one month move range of +/-4.73%.

Their RSI is trending towards overbought levels at 62.74, while their MACD is bullish following Friday’s crossover.

Volumes were +1.77% higher than the prior year’s average (67,452,000 vs. 66,277,052), down sharply from the previous week, which is underwhelming in the wake of last week’s +39.15% higher than average session, indicting waning enthusiasm & perhaps a bit of reality setting in.

Monday the week opened on its second lowest volume on a gap up open above the resistance of the 10 day moving average & managed to grind higher throughout the day for a gain of +1.04%.

Tuesday opened just higher, but market participants were a bit uneasy & the day closed slightly lower as a doji candle, which when combined with the week’s lowest volume paints a picture of uncertainty & temporary complacency while awaiting more data & earnings news.

Wednesday echoed the uneasy feeling, as the session opened up in-line with Tuesday & from there the bottom fell out, and SPY temporarily dipped below the 10 day moving average’s support before recovering to still close the day down -0.52%.

Wednesday’s session was the highest volume of the week which should be noted, as Wednesday formed a bearish engulfing pattern with Tuesday’s candle & folks were clearly beginning to take the money & run.

Thursday opened slightly higher & was able to advance throughout the session, but still fell short of Wednesday’s opening price, while SPY moved further away from its 10 DMA’s support.

Friday opened on a gap higher & the second highest volume session of the week established a new all-time high heading into the weekend on intraday gains of +0.82%.

This raises many questions, as earnings reports continue to come in following the major banks last week & this week’s economic data features a number of reports that may not be available due to the government shutdown, as well as the FOMC decision which many folks see as being a .25 bps cut, which makes Friday’s gains look like front-running a quick profit.

SPY’s upside case continues to remain the same, in order to see lasting, higher results they’ll need to continue to see increased advancing volume that keeps pushing it higher in order to be sustainable; otherwise this has truly begun to look like a game of Jenga.

This is particularly true based on the week-over-week volume decline & Friday’s gap up heading into the weekend session, neither of which inspire a ton of confidence in the new all-time high.

The consolidation case moving forward continued to remain the same as well, where SPY hugs & oscillates around the 10 day moving average in a similar manners to what we’ve seen over three of the past four weeks, awaiting an upside or downside catalyst.

This week should be ripe for one, given that there is a high likelihood that much of the week’s economic data is not available, there are many anticipated earnings reports from various sectors that will lay insight into the state of U.S. consumers & businesses & there is the FOMC interest rate announcement coming Wednesday.

To the downside the risk becomes more interesting this week, particularly due to Friday’s gap up session heading into the weekend & the window that it created that will need to be filled.

What adds to this is that should the 10 DMA & the $673.95/share levels break down, the 50 day moving average’s support is now still in a Seller oriented zone where they’ve historically outnumbered Buyers 2.4:1 & the next support level falls in a price zone that has seen Sellers outnumber Buyers 1.57:1.

In the event of a breakdown like that, the next support level also resides in a Seller dominated zone (2:1), which brings all eyes down to -8.81% at $617.58/share, which happens to be the gatekeeper of the consolidation range of late 2024-early 2025 that houses many support levels.

That support zone is the gatekeeper to the window created in May of 2025 that has remained unfilled, but that’s looking a bit too far ahead at the moment.

SPY has support at the $673.95 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.5:1), $667.49 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.55:1), $656.88 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2.4:1) & $653.17/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.57:1) price levels, with resistance at the $678.47/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

QQQ , the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF gained +2.18% for the week, as the tech-heavy index was not a favorite among market participants.

Their RSI is trending higher at 62.81, while their MACD is currently bullish following Friday’s crossover.

Volumes were +11.17% higher than the prior year’s average (48,450,000 vs. 43,582,231), as there was less market participant enthusiasm week-over-week, but the declining volume hints at a story brewing.

Monday the week kicked off on a gap up, breaking above the $610/share level.

Tuesday things began to show signs of trouble, as the session opened in-line with Monday’s close, but could only close as a doji for a day-over-day loss of -0.03% & market participants were clearly uneasy.

Wednesday opened lower & sank, temporarily breaking through the support of the 10 day moving average & showing that the short-term trendline was weak.

The week’s highest volume also took place on Wednesday, which indicates that there was a lot of profit taking being done, while also reflecting the pump that pushed prices back above the 10 DMA.

Thursday opened lower & in-line with the 10 day moving average, but was able to push higher to close just below Wednesday’s open, another sign of near-term weakness.

This was confirmed Friday when QQQ opened on a gap up, but closed the session as a spinning top candle on the week’s second highest volume.

While that volume tidbit would normally be the important part in a weekly review & paint a rosy picture of advancing volume heading into the weekend when many folks prefer to not carry risk, given the week-over-week decline in volume from +57.78% above the prior year’s average to just +11.17%, it shows a clear lack of demand.

The upside case for QQQ remains the same, in order to continue securing new all-time highs there will need to be sustained increases advancing volume before it can be trusted & until then should be met with a skeptical brow anytime we see a new all-time high at this rate.

The consolidation case, much like SPY’s is similar to that of the past few weeks, where QQQ will oscillated around the 10 day moving average & await an upside or downside catalyst.

To the downside, there is a heavy concentration of historic Buyer sentiment at QQQ’s first few support levels, but, the price zone just above the 50 day moving average (which is moving higher each day) is a Seller dominated zone (1.17:1).

Should QQQ drop below $595/share (which is only a decline of -3.58%) things become interesting, as the consolidation range of August 2025 becomes a support zone that comes into play just below another Seller dominated zone (3.14:1).

QQQ has more support from 2025 than SPY does, but the story will be similar, although likely with QQQ leading the charge.

Should that zone break down, the zone from December into February becomes the next support in focus.

QQQ has support at the $613.18 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.17:1), $606.22 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.2:0*), $590.41 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.04:1) & $590.13/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.04:1) price levels, with resistance at the $618.42/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF advanced +2.47%, as the small cap index led the week in gains.

Their RSI is trending higher, currently at 58.06, while their MACD is bearish, but making a run at the signal line, which will likely only amount to a dolphin, where the signal line is temporarily broken through & then dove right back beneath.

Volumes were -2.06% lower than the prior year’s average (32,138,000 vs. 32,814,462), which should be curious to everyone, given that the small cap index led the four majors in weekly gains.

Monday led the week off on a gap up above the 10 day moving average’s resistance for IWM, but not establishing firm footing for support higher.

Tuesday formed a bearish harami pattern with Monday’s session, with the day’s lower candle touching off of the support of the 10 DMA.

Wednesday showed that there was conviction behind this move, as IWM opened on a gap down, struggled higher temporarily, before ultimately plunging below the 10 DMA’s support, with the day’s lower show indicating that there was a lot of profit taking & comfort with downside movements & that the 50 day moving average’s support was in play.

This wild intraday movement accounted for the highest volume of the week.

Thursday opened higher, broke out above the 10 day moving average before settling down to close just above it.

Friday cast an ominous shadow on the small cap index, as the gap up open closed to resemble a gravestone doji (bearish), and the advancing volume was the second lowest volume of the week.

Additionally, the window itself that was created by the move also now features the 10 day moving average moving through it, which we’ll look at in a moment.

The upside case for IWM resembled that of SPY & QQQ & what we’ve said for weeks, the all-time high train can only continued with higher participation if it wants to be viewed as safe.

The consolidation case will involve oscillations around the 10 day moving average or straddling atop it, while we await an upside or downside catalyst.

To the downside things get murky as IWM’s first two support levels lack enough data for a Buyer:Seller ratio, and a breakdown leads to a breakdown in the short-term trend.

While IWM has more clusters of support locally vs. its larger cap counterparts, it is going to move in tandem with them, so a breakdown of any of them will lead to a breakdown of IWM.

Watch the 50 day moving average, for if it breaks down the $235.99/share level is Seller dominated (1.03:1), but walks IWM lower until the $228.90/share support level (-8.23% from Friday’s close).

IWM has support at the $248.48 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $246.54 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $240.76 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.19:1) & $239.54/share (50-Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.56:1) price levels, with resistance at the $252.77/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF trudged +2.26% higher on the week, as the blue chip index was in second highest demand of the week.

Their RSI is trending higher at 63.68, while their MACD broke out bullishly on Friday & will be interesting to watch to see if it can continue higher or if it dolphins back below the signal line this week.

Volumes were +63.32% higher than the prior year’s average (6,096,000 vs. 3,732,590), as the blue chip index remained the most resilient of the majors by participation rate, but, the highest volume session of the week came on Wednesday on a decline, which raises questions.

Monday the week began on a gap up open above the 10 DMA’s resistance, but the move lacked power due to the lowest volume of the week.

Tuesday opened on a gap higher, retraced into Monday’s range, but managed to Garner support & rip higher, temporarily crossing the $470/share level, but profits taking set in & ultimately DIA settled +0.48% day-over-day.

Wednesday that profit taking set in in full-force, as the session opened up one penny below Tuesday’s, and continued to tank throughout the day on the week’s highest volume, signaling that people wanted their profits, and fast.

Thursday opened lower & made a test towards the 10 DMA’s support, but ultimately the bulls came back into the room & forced a day-over-day gain of +0.32%, which brings us to a fork in the road.

This occurred on the second lowest volume of the week, indicating that there was not much upside appetite at all at the end of the day & perhaps folks were just buying at a discount after selling in the prior couple of days.

Running with that sentiment, the lackluster performance of participants showing up vs. the rest of the week signals that we’re likely approaching the top levels of the diving board.

Friday didn’t do much else beyondconfirming this, as a gap up open on the second highest volume of the week sent DIA into the weekend +1.05% on the day.

Given the 100%+ volume over the prior year’s average of last week & this week’s +63.32% higher rate, DIA’s +2.26% gains for the week seem cheap, particularly if a +1.05% advance came on Friday two days after a high volume decline day.

The blue chip index will continue higher like the rest of the majors mentioned before, perhaps more handsomely, but while relying on the same underlying thesis of attaining more all-time highs safely will involve consistent volume.

Even thought they’ve experienced elevated volume, the consistency is lacking & it’s tough to trust moves higher from here, even though most of the owners of the component names are looking at it through “buy & hold” goggles.

The consolidation case is the same as IWM’s, look to see straddling of/oscillations around the 10 day moving average while we await an upside or downside catalyst.

To the downside, all eyes should be on the 10 DMA’s support first, as if the short-term trend is violated the medium-term terndline comes next at ~1% lower.

Given the buy & hold nature of the index, a bank run on DIA components will easily push prices below the 50 DMA’s suport, which introduces us to a Seller’s zone of $452-455.99/share, and then exposes open range of field between support levels & may even draw into play the 200 Day moving average, but that’s for the next week(s) to decide.

DIA has support at the $470.22 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $464.83 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.9:1), $459.11 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.44:1) & $454.41/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.1:1) price levels, with resistance at the $473.24/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

The Week Ahead

Durable Goods Orders & Durable Goods minus Transportation data come out Monday at 8:30 am, unless the government shutdown persists causing it to be delayed.

Monday morning’s earnings reports include Bank of Hawaii, Carter’s, Easterly Government Properties, Keurig Dr. Pepper, Lakeland Financial & Revvity, before Agilysys, Alexandria RE, Ameris Bancorp, Amkor, Arch Capital, Avis Budget, Bed Bath & Beyond, BioMarin Pharmaceutical, Brown & Brown, Cadence Design, Celestica, Cincinnati Financial, Confluent, Crane, Custom Truck One Source, Dorman Products, F5 Networks, FTAI Aviation Ltd., Hartford Financial, Kilroy Realty, Leggett & Platt, Noble Corporation, Northwest Bancshares, NOV Inc., Nucor, NXP Semiconductor, Olin, Piedmont Office Realty Trust, Principal Financial, Ramaco Resources, Rambus, Seacoast Banking, Simpson Manufacturing, Universal Health, Waste Management, Welltower & Whirlpool after the closing bell.

Tuesday brings us S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index (20 Cities) data at 9 am, before Consumer Confidence data at 10 am.

A.O. Smith, Alkermes Plc, American Tower, Applied Industrial, Ares Capital, Armstrong World Industries, Asbury Automotive, ATI Inc., Axalta Coating Systems, BrightSpring Health Services, Carrier Global, CECO Environ., Check Point Software, Commvault Systems, Corning, Curbline Properties, D.R. Horton, Ecolab, Franklin Electric, Group 1 Auto, Herc Holdings, HNI, Hope Bancorp, Hubbell, Incyte, Invesco, IQVIA, JetBlue Airways, Labcorp Holdings Inc., MSCI, NeoGenomics, New Oriental Education & Technology, NextEra Energy, PayPal, PHINIA, Polaris Industries, Regeneron Pharma, Repligen, Royal Caribbean, Sherwin-Williams, Smithfield Foods, SoFi Technologies, Sysco, Tenet Healthcare, Trimas, UnitedHealth, UPS, V.F. Corp, Wayfair, Xylem & Zebra Tech report earnings Tuesday morning, followed by Acadia Realty Trust, Amrize, Artisan Partners Asset Mgmt, Bank of N.T. Butterfield & Son, Bloom Energy, Booking Holdings, BXP, Inc., Caesars Entertainment, Camping World, Cheesecake Factory, Chemed, CoStar Group, Edison, Electronic Arts, Enphase Energy, Equity Residential, ExlService, Expand Energy, First Commonwealth, Flowserve, Four Corners Property Trust, Frontier Communications Parent, GeneDx, Greenbrier, Highwoods Prop, Huron Consulting, Landstar System, Meritage, Mirion Technologies, Modine Manufacturing, Mondelez Int’l, MSA Safety, Nabors Industries, Neurocrine Biosciences, ONEOK, PPG Industries, Range Resources, Red Rock Resorts, Regency Centers, RenaissanceRe, Renasant, Seagate Tech, Sensata Tech, Stride, Teradyne, Ternium S.A., Titan America, Trustmark, Ultra Clean Holdings, UMB Financial Corporation, Varonis Systems, Veralto, Visa, VSE Corp, W.P. Carey & Zurn Elkay Water Solutions after the session’s close.

Advanced U.S. Trade Balance in Goods, Advanced Retail Inventories & Advanced Wholesale Inventories data comes out Wednesday at 8:30 am, pending that the government shutdown does not cause it to be delayed, followed by Pending Home Sales data at 10 am, the FOMC Interest-Rate Decision at 2pm & Fed Chair Powell’s Press Conference at 2:30 pm.

Wednesday morning begins with earnings reports from AerCap, American Electric, Archrock, Automatic Data, Avantor, Avnet, Bausch + Lomb, Blackbaud, Boeing, Brinker, Caterpillar, Centene, Chart Industries, Chefs’ Warehouse, Clarivate, Clean Harbors, Constellium, Criteo, CVS Health, Dana Inc, Donnelley Financial, Entergy, ESAB Corp., Etsy, Evercore, Extreme Networks, Fiserv, Flex, Fortive, Fresh Del Monte, Garmin, Gates Industrial, GE HealthCare, Generac, Gildan Activewear, GlaxoSmithKline, Hayward Holdings, IDEX Corp, Ionis Pharma, ITT, Kirby, Kraft Heinz, Leonardo DRS, Littelfuse, Masco, Materion, MGP Ingredients, Monro Muffler, Navient, NiSource, OGE Energy, Old Dominion, OneSpaWorld, Oshkosh, Otis Worldwide, Penske Auto, Phillips 66, ProPetro, Prosperity Bancshares, Radware, Reynolds Consumer Products, Silgan Holdings, SiteOne Landscape Supply, Smurfit Westrock plc, Stepan Company, TE Connectivity, The Vita Coco Company, Timken, TriNet Group, UBS AG, United Therapeutics, Verisk Analytics, Verizon, Virtu Financial & Watsco, before Alphabet,  Agnico-Eagle Mines, Alamos, Align Tech, Allison Transmission, American Homes 4 Rent, American Water Works, Antero Midstream, Antero Resources, AtriCure, AvalonBay, AXIS Capital, Bio-Rad Labs, Boot Barn Holdings, C.H. Robinson, Cactus, Calix Networks, Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd., Carlisle Cos, Carvana, CBIZ, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Coeur Mining, Cognex, Cognizant Tech, Cohu, CVR Energy, DaVita, Dayforce, DHT, eBay, Encompass Health, EPR Properties, Equinox Gold, Essex Property, Ethan Allen, Everest Group, Extra Space Storage, First Interstate Bancsystem, FMC Corp, FormFactor, Glaukos, Green Brick Partners, Guardant Health, Hanover Insurance, Impinj, Independence Realty Trust, Invitation Homes, KLA Corporation, Magnolia Oil & Gas, MediaAlpha, MercadoLibre, Meta Platforms, Methanex, MGIC Investment, MGM Resorts, Microsoft, Mid-America Aptmt, Mister Car Wash, Moelis, Murphy USA, MYR Group, NETGEAR, NorthWestern, Opko Health, Pilgrim’s Pride, Pitney Bowes, Provident Finl, Prudential, Public Storage, Regal Rexnord, Rollins, Rush Enterprises, Rush Street Interactive, ServiceNow, Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Sprouts Farmers Market, STAG Industrial, Starbucks, Sun Communities, Teekay Tankers, Teladoc, Tenable, TransMedics Group, Transocean, TTM Tech, Tyler Tech, Udemy, UDR, UFP Industries, Ventas, Verra Mobility, Viavi, Waystar Holding Corp., WEX & Wolfspeed report their earnings after the closing bell.

Thursday begins with Initial Jobless Claims (pending on whether it is delayed due to government shutdown) & GDP data at 8:30 am, before Fed Vice Chair of Supervision Bowman speaks at 9:55 am.

Advance Auto Parts, Allegro Microsystems, Alnylam Pharma, Altria, Ameriprise Financial, Ametek, Apellis Pharmaceuticals, APi Group, Aptiv, Baxter, Belden, Biogen, BorgWarner, Bristol-Myers, California Water, Cardinal Health, CCC Intelligent Solutions, Cheniere Energy, CMS Energy, CNX Resources, Columbus McKinnon, Comcast, Commscope, Crocs, Cullen/Frost, Cushman & Wakefield, DigitalBridge, DT Midstream, DTE Energy, Eagle Materials, Eli Lilly, EMCOR Group, Entegris, Enterprise Products, Estee Lauder, Federal Signal, Ferrari, FirstCash, Fox Corporation, Genesis Energy, L.P., Gibraltar Industries, Hershey Foods, HF Sinclair, Hilton Grand Vacations, Howmet Aerospace, Huntington Ingalls, IdaCorp, Insight Enterprises, Insmed, Int’l Paper, Integra, Intercontinental Exchange, InterDigital, Itron, Janus Henderson Group, KBR, Kellanova, Kimberly-Clark, Kimco Realty, L3Harris, Laureate Education, LCI Industries, Lincoln Electric, Lincoln National, LKQ, LXP Industrial Trust, Malibu Boats, Mastercard, Medical Property Trust, Merck, Newmark Group, NovoCure, Omnicell, Option Care Health, Patrick Industries, PBF Energy, Peabody Energy, Quanta Services, Restaurant Brands Int’l, Roblox, RPC, S&P Global, Saia, Schneider National, Scorpio Tankers, Shake Shack, Sirius XM, Southern, The Cigna Group, Thryv, Tradeweb Markets, Trane, Trinity Industries, Upbound Group, Utz Brands, Valaris, Vontier, Vulcan Materials, Wabash Natl, WEC Energy Group, Wesco, Westlake Corporation, Willis Towers Watson, Xcel Energy & XPO, Inc. host their earnings calls Thursday mornings, followed by Amazon.com, Apple, Adtalem Global Education, Alignment Healthcare, Alkami Technology, Alphatec, AppFolio, AptarGroup, Arcosa, Ardelyx, Arrow Electronics, Arthur J. Gallagher, Atlassian, Axos Financial, BJ Restaurants, Bright Horizons, Casella Waste, Cloudflare, Coinbase Global, Columbia Banking, Columbia Sportswear, COPT Defense Properties, Cousins Prop, CubeSmart, Dexcom, DXC Technology, Edwards Lifesciences, Employers Holdings, Exponent, Federated Hermes, First Solar, Floor & Decor, Fortune Brands Innovations, Gaming and Leisure Properties, Gilead Sciences, GoDaddy, Grid Dynamics, Healthcare Realty, Hercules Capital, Houlihan Lokey, Hub Group, ICF International, Illumina, Ingersoll-Rand, iRhythm, LendingTree, LPL Financial, Lumen Technologies, MasTec, Merit Medical, Monolithic Power, Motorola Solutions, Omega Health, Park Hotels & Resorts, PriceSmart, Quaker Chemical, Reddit, Reinsurance Group of America, Republic Services, ResMed, Rocket Companies, Roku, Ryan Specialty Group, Savers Value Village, Select Medical, Silicon Motion, SkyWest, SPS Commerce, SPX Technologies, Strategy Inc, Stryker, Twilio, VICI Properties, Werner Enterprises, Western Digital, Weyerhaeuser & Zillow after the closing bell. 

Employment Cost Index, Personal Income, Personal Spending, PCE Index, PCE (Year-over-Year), Core PCE Index & Core PCE (Year-over-Year) are all scheduled for release Friday at 8:30 am (pending the government shutdown does not force them to be delayed), before Fed President Logan Speaks at 9:30 am, Chicago Business Barometer (PMI) data comes out at 9:45 am & Fed Presidents Hammack & Bostic speak at 12 pm.

Friday morning’s earnings calls include AbbVie, AGCO Corp, Aon, Canadian Nat’l Rail, Cboe Global Markets, Cenovus Energy, Charter Communications, Chevron, Church & Dwight, Colgate-Palmolive, Dominion Energy, Exxon Mobil, Federal Realty, Grainger, Imperial Oil, Interface, Lear, Linde plc, LyondellBasell, Magna, Newell Brands, nVent Electric, Oil States, OneMain Holdings, Owens & Minor, Piper Sandler, Portland Gen Elec, Protolabs, RBC Bearings, Sensient, T. Rowe Price, Telus, Terex, WisdomTree & Xenia Hotels.

See you back here next week! 

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM OR DIA AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***

Since our last Volume Sentiment Analysis in September markets have slowly ground higher, with some slight volatility in early October that has largely been recovered, but new record all time highs have been elusive for SPY & QQQ, but have been attained by IWM & DIA.

For those who read our note weekly, this comes as no surprise given that SPY & QQQ have moved in very similar manners week-over-week, with IWM & DIA moving somewhat in tandem as well.

Last night the VIX closed at 18.6, indicating an implied one day move range of +/-1.17% & an implied one month move range of +/-5.38% for the S&P 500.

For those keeping score at home, SPY has a beta of 1, QQQ’s beta is 1.14, IWM’s is 1.46 & DIA’s is 0.99 (per Fidelity data pulled last night).

Volumes have been escalating after a over a year of highly subdued levels compared to the prior 3-4 years, with even this week DIA experiencing a weekly jump of +100.98% compared to the prior year’s average (7,376,000 vs. 3,670,040), QQQ seeing a +57.78% jump (68,176,000 vs. 43,210,438), IWM experiencing a +44.34% increase (47,022,000 vs. 32,578,088) & SPY coming in at a jump of +39.15% vs. the prior year’s average volume (91,420,000 vs. 65,697,291).

This most recent earnings season has also seen a bit more volatility than the prior few early on, indicating that there may be more negative sentiment awaiting market participants in the coming weeks-to-month.

This is particularly true given than as has been noted in weeks prior, QQQ is likely to lead the charge up or the fall down & they’ve been unable to crack a new all-time high this week, despite the blue chip DIA & small cap IWM scraping by to new ones.

Add in the government shutdown, rumors on international relations that have mostly not quite seemed to have played themselves out yet & where we sit in the FOMC interest rate cycle with regards to employment data (and lack thereof, given Chair Powell’s implications of a hazy outlook on the horizon at best & cutting as a “hedge”) and it seems like a great time to check in on the strength/weakness of the major four index ETFs’ support/resistance levels.

Each section below contains a view of each index ETF’s chart (for a technical breakdown of each’s chart, see last week’s market review note), as well as a list of their current one year support & resistance levels with the volume sentiment noted beneath it on the table.

There is an additional table beneath this table with each price level’s sentiment, as well as a typed text version below that is able to be copied & pasted.

Note that “NULL, 0:0*” values denote areas that each name has traded at (or gapped through, in some instances) but with limited volume data to work with from a comparison standpoint in terms of creating a ratio of buyers:sellers (or vice versa) or is the outlier above the highest/lowest level with price data.

Also, prices that do have a ratio of Buyers:Sellers (Sellers:Buyers) where the denominator is 0 are denoted with an asterisk “*” as well.

In the written lists of the price levels & volume sentiments the price levels that contain support & resistance levels are marked in BOLD.

Recall that at price extremes such as the highs that we have recently hit there will tend to be skewed data due to the small sample size & factor that into how you interpret each price level’s reported sentiment.

This is intended to serve as an additional tool, similar to a barometer to use during your due diligence process & is not meant to replace doing your own research & is not financial advice.    

Price Level:Volume Sentiment Analysis For SPY, The SPDR S&P 500 ETF

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF is still below its all-time high & looks set to have its upper Bollinger Band expand soon after a week & a half of relative consolidation.

Checking their Average True Range (ATR) also shows signals of increasing volatility & their MACD so far through the week has not managed to break out bullishly, meaning it may bump the bottom of the signal line at best without a major upside catalyst.

CPI data on Friday is likely the only panacea at this rate, as earnings calls have begun to sound less and less optimistic vs. the recent quarters past.

It should also be noted that the next four support levels from SPY’s close are historically dominated by Sellers over the past ~3 years.

Given that the 10 & 50 Day moving averages are both in that list & moving in the manner that they are it’s a good time to review the strength/weakness of SPY’s support/resistance levels.

With that said, below are the support/resistance levels of SPY’s one year chart, along with their volume sentiments at each of the price levels that they’ve traded at over the past ~3 years.

Recall again that this is intended to be a barometer to aid in your research & due diligence and is not financial advice.

$675 – NULL – 0:0*, +0.75% From Current Price Level

$670 – Buyers – 2.5:1 – 0.00% From Current Price Level – All-Time High*

$665 – Buyers – 2.55:1, -0.74% From Current Price Level – Current Price Level & 10 Day Moving Average**

$660 – Buyers – 1.58:1, -1.49% From Current Price Level

$655 – Sellers – 2.4:1, -2.23% From Current Price Level – 50 Day Moving Average*

$650 – Sellers – 1.57:1, -2.98% From Current Price Level

$645 – Buyers – 4:1, -3.73% From Current Price Level

$640 – Buyers – 1.83:1, -4.47% From Current Price Level

$635 – Sellers – 2:1, -5.22% From Current Price Level

$630 – Sellers – 2:1, -5.97% From Current Price Level

$625 – Buyers – 1.2:1, -6.71% From Current Price Level

$620 – Buyers – 1.2:1, -7.46% From Current Price Level

$615 – Buyers – 1.2:1, -8.2% From Current Price Level

$610 – Buyers – 1.3:0*, -8.95% From Current Price Level

$605 – Buyers – 7:1, -9.7% From Current Price Level

$600 – Buyers – 9.33:1, -10.44% From Current Price Level, 200 Day Moving Average*

$595 – Buyers – 1.59:1, -11.19% From Current Price Level

$590 – Sellers – 1.28:1, -11.94% From Current Price Level

$585 – Buyers – 1.65:1, -12.68% From Current Price Level

$580 – Buyers – 1.67:1, -13.43% From Current Price Level

$575 – Sellers – 1.74:1, -14.18% From Current Price Level

$570 – Buyers – 1.27:1, -14.92% From Current Price Level

$565 – Buyers – 1.5:1, -15.67% From Current Price Level

$560 – Buyers – 1.14:1, -16.41% From Current Price Level

$555 – Buyers – 2.91:1, -17.16% From Current Price Level

$550 – Buyers – 2.48:1, -17.91% From Current Price Level

$545 – Buyers – 2.27:1, -18.65% From Current Price Level

$540 – Buyers – 1.15:1, -19.4% From Current Price Level

$535 – Buyers – 2.47:1, -20.15% From Current Price Level

$530 – Sellers – 1.33:1, -20.89% From Current Price Level

$525 – Buyers – 1:0*, -21.64% From Current Price Level

$520 – Buyers – 1.06:1, -22.38% From Current Price Level

$515 – Buyers – 1.82:1, -23.13% From Current Price Level

$510 – Buyers – 1.06:1, -23.88% From Current Price Level

$505 – Buyers – 1.92:1, -24.62% From Current Price Level

$500 – Sellers – 3.22:1, -25.37% From Current Price Level

$496 – Buyers – 4:1, -25.97% From Current Price Level

$492 – Sellers – 7.33:1, -26.56% From Current Price Level

$488 – Sellers – 1.73:1, -27.16% From Current Price Level

$484 – Buyers – 1.67:1, -27.76% From Current Price Level

$480 – Sellers – 1.06:1, -28.36% From Current Price Level

$476 – Buyers – 1.71:1, -28.95% From Current Price Level

$472 – Buyers – 2.78:1, -29.55% From Current Price Level

$468 – NULL – 0:0*, -30.15% From Current Price Level

$464 – Buyers – 1.86:1, -30.74% From Current Price Level

$460 – Buyers – 1.35:1, -31.34% From Current Price Level

$456 – Sellers – 2.29:1, -31.94% From Current Price Level

$452 – Buyers – 0.6:0*, -32.53% From Current Price Level

$448 – Buyers – 1.2:0*, -33.13% From Current Price Level

$444 – Buyers – 2:1, -33.73% From Current Price Level

$440 – Buyers – 2.33:1, -34.33% From Current Price Level

$436 – Buyers – 2.03:1, -34.92% From Current Price Level

$432 – Sellers – 1.5:1, -35.52% From Current Price Level

$428 – Buyers – 2:1, -36.12% From Current Price Level

$424 – Buyers – 1.09:1, -36.71% From Current Price Level

$420 – Buyers – 1.08:1, -37.31% From Current Price Level

$416 – Buyers – 1.03:1, -37.91% From Current Price Level

$412 – Buyers – 1.39:1, -38.5% From Current Price Level

$408 – Sellers – 2.88:1, -39.1% From Current Price Level

$404 – Buyers – 1.65:1, -39.7% From Current Price Level

$400 – Buyers – 1.66:1, -40.3% From Current Price Level

$396 – Buyers – 1.47:1, -40.89% From Current Price Level

$392 – Sellers – 11.17:1, -41.49% From Current Price Level

$388 – Buyers – 2.94:1, -42.09% From Current Price Level

$384 – Buyers – 2.16:1, -42.68% From Current Price Level

$380 – Buyers – 1.93:1, -43.28% From Current Price Level

$376 – Sellers – 2.93:1, -43.88% From Current Price Level

$372 – Sellers – 2.23:1, -44.48% From Current Price Level

$368 – Sellers – 1.78:1, -45.07% From Current Price Level

$364 – Sellers – 2.39:1, -45.67% From Current Price Level

$360 – Buyers – 2.33:1, -46.27% From Current Price Level

$356 – Sellers – 1.11:1, -46.86% From Current Price Level

$352 – Buyers – 1.6:1, -47.46% From Current Price Level

$348 – Buyers – 1.33:1, -48.06% From Current Price Level

$344 – Sellers – 0.7:0*, -48.65% From Current Price Level

$340 – Sellers – 2.3:0*, -49.25% From Current Price Level

Price Level:Volume Sentiment Analysis For QQQ, The Invesco QQQ Trust ETF

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF has been the one to watch of recent, as it appears that market participants will be broadly following it between the FOMC interest rate policies & the tech heavy components that it houses.

Last night’s session began closing Monday’s gap up, but there is still support to be had in the 10 day moving average, which will be a key area to watch in the coming weeks (see this weekend’s note referenced above).

Heightened volatility appears on the menu for QQQ in the coming week, which makes knowing the lay of the land from a support/resistance perspective all the more important.

Reference the tables below to accompany your research & aid in assessing your views on the strength/weakness of support/resistance levels.

$615 – NULL – 0:0*, +1.11% From Current Price Level

$610 – Buyers – 1.17:1, 0.29% From Current Price Level – All-Time High*

$605 – Buyers – 2.2:0*, -0.53% From Current Price Level – Current Price Level*

$600 – Buyers – 2.74:1, -1.35% From Current Price Level – 10 Day Moving Average*

$595 – Sellers – 1.17:1,-2.17% From Current Price Level

$590 – Buyers – 1.04:1, -3% From Current Price Level

$585 – Sellers – 3.14:1, -3.82% From Current Price Level – 50 Day Moving Average*

$580 – Buyers – 2.5:0*, -4.64% From Current Price Level

$575 – Buyers – 2.33:1, -5.46% From Current Price Level

$570 – Buyers – 6.88:1, -6.28% From Current Price Level

$565 – Sellers – 1.08:1, -7.11% From Current Price Level

$560 – Sellers – 1.26:1, -7.93% From Current Price Level

$555 – Buyers – 4.5:1, -8.75% From Current Price Level

$550 – Sellers – 1.36:1, -9.57% From Current Price Level

$545 – Buyers – 2:1, -10.39% From Current Price Level

$540 – Buyers – 1.2:0*, -11.22% From Current Price Level

$535 – Buyers – 6:1, -12.04% From Current Price Level

$530 – Buyers – 2.76:1, -12.86% From Current Price Level, 200 Day Moving Average*

$525 – Buyers – 1.29:1, -13.68% From Current Price Level

$520 – Buyers – 1.79:1, -14.5% From Current Price Level

$515 – Buyers – 1.05:1, -15.33% From Current Price Level

$510 – Sellers – 1.42:1, -16.15% From Current Price Level

$505 – Sellers – 1.61:1, -16.97% From Current Price Level

$500 – Buyers – 1.71:1, -17.79% From Current Price Level

$496 – Buyers – 1.33:1, -18.45% From Current Price Level

$492 – Sellers – 1.11:1, -19.11% From Current Price Level

$488 – Buyers – 4.6:1, -19.77% From Current Price Level

$484 – Buyers – 1.34:1, -20.42% From Current Price Level

$480 – Buyers – 1.58:1, -21.08% From Current Price Level

$476 – Buyers – 1.24:1, -21.74% From Current Price Level

$472 – Buyers – 1.93:1, -22.4% From Current Price Level

$468 – Sellers – 1.38:1, -23.05% From Current Price Level

$464 – Buyers – 1.35:1, -23.71% From Current Price Level

$460 – NULL – 0:0*, -24.37% From Current Price Level

$456 – Buyers – 2.5:1, -25.03% From Current Price Level

$452 – Buyers – 3.7:0*, -25.68% From Current Price Level

$448 – Sellers – 1.06:1, -26.34% From Current Price Level

$444 – Sellers – 2.68:1, -27% From Current Price Level

$440 – Sellers – 1.71:1, -27.66% From Current Price Level

$436 – Buyers – 2.7:0*, -28.32% From Current Price Level

$432 – Sellers – 3.5:0*, -28.97% From Current Price Level

$428 – Sellers – 1.5:0*, -29.63% From Current Price Level

$424 – NULL – 0:0*, -30.29% From Current Price Level

$420 – Buyers – 1.39:1, -30.95% From Current Price Level

$416 – NULL – 0:0*, -31.6% From Current Price Level

$412 – Sellers – 2.7:0*, -32.26% From Current Price Level

$408 – NULL – 0:0*, -32.92% From Current Price Level

Price Level:Volume Sentiment Analysis For IWM, The iShares Russell 2000 ETF

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF is having an interesting week, after hitting a new all-time high, but consolidating into what looks to be forming a diamond pattern.

Elevated volumes recently skew towards the declining side, which is something to keep closely in mind as well when watching the small cap index.

They enjoy a lot of Buyer dominated zones in the tables below from a support standpoint, but recall that they will likely trail-to-outdecline their larger index counterparts (from best-to-worst case scenario).

$256 – NULL – 0:0*, +4.77% From Current Price Level

$252 – NULL – 0:0*, +3.13% From Current Price Level, All-Time High*

$248 – NULL – 0:0*, +1.49% From Current Price Level

$244 – NULL – 0:0*, -0.14% From Current Price Level – Current Price Level & 10 Day Moving Average**

$240 – Buyers – 2.19:1, -1.78% From Current Price Level

$236 – Buyers – 1.56:1, -3.42% From Current Price Level – 50 Day Moving Average*

$232 – Sellers – 1.03:1, -5.05% From Current Price Level

$228 – Buyers – 1.58:1, -6.69% From Current Price Level

$224 – Buyers – 1.07:1, -8.33% From Current Price Level

$220 – Buyers – 2:1, -9.97% From Current Price Level

$216 – Buyers – 1.01:1, -11.6% From Current Price Level – 200 Day Moving Average*

$212 – Sellers – 1.2:1, -13.24% From Current Price Level

$208 – Buyers – 1.36:1, -14.88% From Current Price Level

$204 – Buyers – 1.49:1, -16.51% From Current Price Level

$200 – Buyers – 1.24:1, -18.15% From Current Price Level

$198 – Sellers – 1.29:1, -18.97% From Current Price Level

$196 – Sellers – 1.05:1, -19.79% From Current Price Level

$194 – Buyers – 1.85:1, -20.61% From Current Price Level

$192 – Buyers – 1.11:1, -21.42% From Current Price Level

$190 – Sellers – 1.87:1, -22.24% From Current Price Level

$188 – Sellers – 1.26:1, -23.06% From Current Price Level

$186 – Even – 1:1, -23.88% From Current Price Level

$184 – Buyers – 2.2:1, -24.7% From Current Price Level

$182 – Buyers – 3.85:1, -25.52% From Current Price Level

$180 – Sellers – 2.04:1, -26.34% From Current Price Level

$178 – Sellers – 1.82:1, -27.15% From Current Price Level

$176 – Sellers – 1.86:1, -27.97% From Current Price Level

$174 – Buyers – 2.33, -28.79% From Current Price Level

$172 – Sellers – 2.75:1, -29.61% From Current Price Level

$170 – Buyers – 1.2:1, -30.43% From Current Price Level

$168 – Buyers – 3.33:1, -31.25% From Current Price Level

$166 – Sellers – 2.1:1, -32.06% From Current Price Level

$164 – Buyers – 1.27:1, -32.88% From Current Price Level

$162 – Sellers – 2.2:1, -33.7% From Current Price Level

$160 – Buyers – 6.5:1, -34.52% From Current Price Level

$158 – Sellers – 2.5:1, -35.34% From Current Price Level

Price Level:Volume Sentiment Analysis For DIA, The SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF

DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF also also showing signs of potentially following IWM into the diamond pattern emerging, but is still showing more resilience.

The spike in volume this past week that over doubled it’s prior year’s average weekly level was a sight to behold, but yesterday’s bearish session combined with Thursday’s shows that profit taking is abound, making any upside moves without strong advancing volume riskier than usual.

$472 – NULL – 0:0*, +0.78% From Current Price Level

$468 – NULL – 0:0*, -0.07% From Current Price Level, All-Time High & Current Price Level**

$464 – Buyers – 1.9:1, -0.93% From Current Price Level

$460 – Buyers – 2.36:1, -1.78% From Current Price Level – 10 Day Moving Average*

$456 – Buyers – 1.44:1, -2.63% From Current Price Level – 50 Day Moving Average*

$452 – Sellers – 1.1:1, -3.49% From Current Price Level

$448 – Buyers – 1.8:1, -4.34% From Current Price Level

$444 – Buyers – 2:1, -5.2% From Current Price Level

$440 – Buyers – 1.84:1, -6.05% From Current Price Level

$436 – Sellers – 1.65:1, -6.91% From Current Price Level

$432 – Buyers – 1.5:1, -7.76% From Current Price Level – 200 Day Moving Average*

$428 – Buyers – 1.4:1, -8.61% From Current Price Level

$424 – Buyers – 1.5:1, -9.47% From Current Price Level

$420 – Buyers – 1.5:1, -10.32% From Current Price Level

$416 – Buyers – 1.14:1, -11.18% From Current Price Level

$412 – Sellers – 1.25:1, -12.03% From Current Price Level

$408 – Sellers – 1.9:1, -12.88% From Current Price Level

$404 – Buyers – 6.67:1, -13.74% From Current Price Level

$400 – Buyers – 2:1, -14.59% From Current Price Level

$396 – Buyers – 2.22:1, -15.45% From Current Price Level

$392 – Sellers – 1.07:1, -16.3% From Current Price Level

$388 – Buyers – 2:1, -17.15% From Current Price Level

$384 – Buyers – 1.47:1, -18.01% From Current Price Level

$380 – Buyers – 1.09:1, -18.86% From Current Price Level

$376 – Sellers – 1.46:1, -19.72% From Current Price Level

$372 – Buyers – 1.09:1, -20.57% From Current Price Level

$368 – Buyers – 1.32:1, -21.42% From Current Price Level

$364 – Buyers – 2.5:1, -22.28% From Current Price Level

$360 – Buyers – 1.63:1, -23.13% From Current Price Level

$356 – NULL – 0:0*, -23.99% From Current Price Level

$352 – Buyers – 0.6:0*, -24.84% From Current Price Level

$348 – Buyers – 1.18:1, -25.7% From Current Price Level

$344 – NULL – 0:0*, -26.55% From Current Price Level

$340 – Buyers – 14:1, -27.4% From Current Price Level

$336 – Buyers – 1.31:1, -28.26% From Current Price Level

$332 – Sellers – 1.15:1, -29.11% From Current Price Level

$328 – Buyers – 2.25:1, -29.97% From Current Price Level

$324 – Buyers – 1.63:1, -30.82% From Current Price Level

$320 – Even – 1:1, -31.67% From Current Price Level

$316 – Buyers – 1.16:1, -32.57% From Current Price Level

$312 – Sellers – 1.15:1, -33.38% From Current Price Level

$308 -Sellers – 1.26:1, -34.24% From Current Price Level

$304 – Sellers – 2:1, -35.09% From Current Price Level

$300 – Buyers – 1.32:1, -35.94% From Current Price Level

$296 – Sellers – 1.44:1, -36.8% From Current Price Level

$292 – Sellers – 1.61:1, -37.65% From Current Price Level

$288 – Sellers – 1.5:1, -38.51% From Current Price Level

$284 – Sellers – 1.6:1, -39.36% From Current Price Level

$280 – Sellers – 6:1, -40.21% From Current Price Level

$276 – Sellers – 2.29:1, -41.07% From Current Price Level

$272 – Sellers – 0.3:0*, -41.92% From Current Price Level

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM OR DIA AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***