Author: OptimizedValue

Since our last Volume Sentiment Analysis SPY, QQQ & DIA have marched to new all-time highs, but markets are beginning to look unstable, making it a great time to check in with volume sentiments for the major indexes.

Last night the VIX closed at 17.85, indicating an implied one day move of +/-1.12% & an implied one month move of +/-5.16%, which adds to the importance of knowing our bearings in terms of historic market behavior.

This will also be of heightened importance in the event of a drawdown, as over the past couple of months there has been a lot of gappy behavior, with majors jumping up & continuing to advance, while leaving open windows in their wake.

Volume have remained high (see last week’s market review note), but are signaling that there is a bit more risk-off sentiment in the air & that market participants are less confident than they’ve been in the past.

In the event that we see re-tests of the current one year support or resistance levels, the data below can be used as a barometer to gain insight into how market participants have behaved histrorically.

This can shed light into how they may behave again & can be helpful in crafting a strategy for navigating these interesting conditions.

Each section below contains a view of each index ETF’s chart (for a technical breakdown of each’s chart, see the link above for last week’s note), as well as a list of their current one year support & resistance levels with the volume sentiment noted beneath it on the table.

There is an additional table beneath this table with each price level’s sentiment, as well as a typed text version below that is able to be copied & pasted.

Note that “NULL, 0:0*” values denote areas that each name has traded at but with limited volume data to work with from a comparison standpoint in terms of creating a ratio of buyers:sellers (or vice versa) or is the outlier above the highest/lowest level with price data.

Also, prices that do have a ratio of Buyers:Sellers (Sellers:Buyers) where the denominator is 0 are denoted with an asterisk “*” as well.

In the written lists of the price levels & volume sentiments the price levels that contain support & resistance levels are marked in BOLD.

Recall that at price extremes such as the highs that we have recently hit there will tend to be skewed data due to the small sample size & factor that into how you interpret each price level’s reported sentiment.

This is intended to serve as an additional tool, similar to a barometer to use during your due diligence process & is not meant to replace doing your own research & is not financial advice.

Price Level:Volume Sentiment Analysis For SPY, The SPDR S&P 500 ETF

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF has given up some losses since its last all-time high, but is still hovering around it, up +0.76% so far intraday.

Expect to see it restricted by the 10 day moving average’s resistance in the near-term, but as it approaches other support/resistance levels the data below can serve as a reference.

For a deeper dive into SPY’s technicals, see the link to the market review note above.

$640 – NULL – 0:0*, +1.92% From Current Price Level

$635 – Sellers – 1.5:1, +1.12% From Current Price Level

$630 – Buyers – 1.33:1, +0.32% From Current Price Level – 10 Day Moving Average*

$625 – Buyers – 5.4:1, -0.47% From Current Price Level – Current Price Level*

$620 – Sellers – 1.5:1, -1.27% From Current Price Level

$615 – Buyers – 1.8:1, -2.07% From Current Price Level

$610 – Buyers – 1.5:0*, -2.86% From Current Price Level – 50 Day Moving Average*

$605 – Buyers – 4.8:1, -3.66% From Current Price Level

$600 – Buyers – 12.2:1, -4.45% From Current Price Level

$595 – Sellers – 2.14:1, -5.25% From Current Price Level

$590 – Buyers – 1.3:1,, -6.05% From Current Price Level

$585 – Buyers – 2.63:1, -6.84% From Current Price Level – 200 Day Moving Average*

$580 – Sellers- 2.81:1, -7.64% From Current Price Level

$575 – Buyers – 1.74:1, -8.44% From Current Price Level

$570 – Even – 1:1, -9.23% From Current Price Level

$565 – Buyers – 1.5:1, -10.03% From Current Price Level

$560 – Sellers – 1.07:1, -10.82% From Current Price Level

$555 – Buyers – 3.53:1, -11.62% From Current Price Level

$550 – Buyers – 1.21:1, -12.42% From Current Price Level

$545 – Buyers – 2.24:1, -13.21% From Current Price Level

$540 – Buyers – 1.67:1, -14.01% From Current Price Level

$535 – Sellers – 1.11:1, -14.8% From Current Price Level

$530 – Buyers – 1.67:1, -15.6% From Current Price Level

$525 – Buyers – 1.92:1, -16.4% From Current Price Level

$520 – Buyers – 1.3:1, -17.19% From Current Price Level

$515 – Buyers – 4:1, -17.99% From Current Price Level

$510 – Sellers – 1.41:1, -18.79% From Current Price Level

$505 – Buyers – 1.2:1, -19.58% From Current Price Level

$500 – Sellers – 2.05:1, -20.38% From Current Price Level

$496 – Buyers – 1.21:1, -21.02% From Current Price Level

$492 – Sellers – 7.83:1, -21.65% From Current Price Level

$488 – Buyers – 1.61:1, -22.29% From Current Price Level

$484 – Sellers – 1.2:1, -22.93% From Current Price Level

$480 – Buyers – 1.27:1, -23.56% From Current Price Level

$476 – Buyers – 2.33:1, -24.2% From Current Price Level

$472 – Buyers – 1.91:1, -24.84% From Current Price Level

$468 – NULL – 0:0*, -25.47% From Current Price Level

$464 – Buyers – 1.83:1, -26.11% From Current Price Level

$460 – Sellers – 1.52:1, -26.75% From Current Price Level

$456 – Buyers – 1.13:1, -27.39% From Current Price Level

$452 – Buyers – 0.7:0*, -28.02% From Current Price Level

$448 – Buyers – 2:0*, -29.66% From Current Price Level

$444 – Buyers – 1.31:1, -29.3% From Current Price Level

$440 – BUyers – 2.78:1, -29.93% From Current Price Level

$436 – Buyers – 1.87:1, -30.57% From Current Price Level

$432 – Sellers – 1.56:1, -31.21% From Current Price Level

$428 – Buyers – 1.25:1, -31.84% From Current Price Level

$424 – Buyers – 1.92:1, -32.48% From Current Price Level

$420 – Sellers – 1.66:1, -33.12% From Current Price Level

$416 – Buyers – 1.08:1, -33.75% From Current Price Level

$412 – Buyers – 1.31:1, -34.39% From Current Price Level

$408 – Sellers – 1.63:1, -35.03% From Current Price Level

$404 – Buyers – 1.95:1, -35.67% From Current Price Level

$400 – Buyers – 2.51:1, -36.3% From Current Price Level

$396 – Sellers – 1.8:1, -36.94% From Current Price Level

$392 – Sellers – 2.03:1, -37.58% From Current Price Level

$388 – Buyers – 4.86:1, -38.21% From Current Price Level

$384 – Buyers – 1.67:1, -38.85% From Current Price Level

$380 – Buyers – 1.41:1, -39.49% From Current Price Level

$376 – Sellers – 2.44:1, -40.12% From Current Price Level

$372 – Sellers – 2.12:1, -40.76% From Current Price Level

$368 – Sellers – 2:1, -41.4% From Current Price Level

$364 – Sellers – 1.28:1, -42.04% From Current Price Level

$360 – Buyers – 1.17:1, -42.67% From Current Price Level

$356 – Buyers – 1.43:1, -43.31% From Current Price Level

$352 – Buyers – 1.67:1, -43.95% From Current Price Level

$348 – Sellers – 0.9:0*, -44.58% From Current Price Level

$344 – Sellers – 1.2:0*, -45.22% From Current Price Level

$340 – NULL – 0:0*, -45.86% From Current Price Level

$336 – NULL – 0:0*, -46.49% From Current Price Level

Price Level:Volume Sentiment Analysis For QQQ, The Invesco QQQ Trust ETF

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF is in a similar boat to SPY, hovering near all-time highs, seeing folks retreat from the uptick in declining volume perspective, and oscillating around the 10 day moving average while awaiting an upside or downside catalyst.

The data below can aid in making assessments around the strength/weakness of QQQ’s support/resistance levels.

$575 – NULL – 0:0*, +2.63% From Current Price Level

$570 – NULL – 0:0*, +1.74% From Current Price Level

$565 – Buyers – 1.39:1, +0.84% From Current Price Level

$560 – Buyers – 1.74:1, -0.05% From Current Price Level – Current Price Level*

$555 – Buyers – 6.25:1, -0.94% From Current Price Level

$550 – Sellers – 1.28:1, -1.83% From Current Price Level

$545 – Buyers – 1.92:1, -2.73% From Current Price Level

$540 – Buyers – 1:0*, -3.62% From Current Price Level – 50 Day Moving Average*

$535 – Buyers – 5.5:1, -4.51% From Current Price Level

$530 – Buyers – 3.45:1, -5.4% From Current Price Level

$525 – Buyers – 1.11:1, -6.3% From Current Price Level

$520 – Buyers – 1.84:1, -7.19% From Current Price Level

$515 – Buyers – 1.1:1, -8.08% From Current Price Level

$510 – Sellers – 2.04:1, -8.97% From Current Price Level – 200 Day Moving Average*

$505 – Sellers – 1.42:1, -9.86% From Current Price Level

$500 – Buyers – 2:1, -10.76% From Current Price Level

$496 – Buyers – 1.17:1, -11.47% From Current Price Level

$492 – Buyers – 1.96:1, -12.19% From Current Price Level

$488 – Buyers – 2.59:1, -12.9% From Current Price Level

$484 – Buyers – 1.28:1, -13.61% From Current Price Level

$480 – Buyers – 1.71:1, -14.33% From Current Price Level

$476 – Sellers – 1.04:1, -15.04% From Current Price Level

$472 – Buyers – 2.04:1, -15.75% From Current Price Level

$468 – Sellers – 2.34:1, -16.47% From Current Price Level

$464 – Buyers – 6:1, -17.18% From Current Price Level

$460 – Buyers – 1.95:1, -17.9% From Current Price Level

$456 – Buyers – 1.31:1, -18.61% From Current Price Level

$452 – Buyers – 1.08:1, -19.32% From Current Price Level

$448 – Sellers – 1.11:1, -20.04% From Current Price Level

$444 – Sellers – 3.45:1, -20.75% From Current Price Level

$440 – Buyers – 1.39:1, -21.47% From Current Price Level

$436 – Buyers – 5.63:1, -22.18% From Current Price Level

$432 – Sellers – 7.33:1, -22.89% From Current Price Level

$428 – Buyers – 2:0*, -23.61% From Current Price Level

$424 – Sellers – 1.36:1, -24.32% From Current Price Level

$420 – Sellers – 1.11:1, -25.04% From Current Price Level

$416 – Sellers – 1.3:0*, -25.75% From Current Price Level

$412 – Sellers – 2:1, -26.46% From Current Price Level

$408 – Sellers – 1.9:0*. -27.18% From Current Price Level

$404 – NULL – 0:0*, -27.89% From Current Price Level

Price Level:Volume Sentiment Analysis For IWM, The iShares Russell 2000 ETF

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF has not performed as strongly as SPY or QQQ as investors are skittish around the small cap index at the current moment.

Due to this, there are more support & resistance levels around their current price that may be retested.

The data below displays how market participants have behaved at each price level IWM has traded at over the past ~2 years.

$244 – NULL – 0:0*, +10.48% From Current Price Level

$240 – Buyers – 0.4:0*, +8.67% From Current Price Level

$236 – Buyers – 1.9:1, +6.86% From Current Price Level

$232 – Buyers – 1.18:1, +5.05% From Current Price Level

$228 – Buyers – 1.56:1, +3.24% From Current Price Level

$224 – Buyers – 1.06:1, +1.43% From Current Price Level

$220 – Buyers – 1.87:1, -0.38% From Current Price Level – 10 Day Moving Average & Current Price**

$216 – Buyers – 1.07:1, -2.2% From Current Price Level

$212 – Sellers – 1.24:1, -4.01% From Current Price Level – 50 & 200 Day Moving Averages**

$208 – Buyers – 1.55:1, -5.82% From Current Price Level

$204 – Buyers – 1.12:1, -7.63% From Current Price Level

$200 – Buyers – 1.44:1, -9.44% From Current Price Level

$198 – Sellers – 1.35:1, -10.35% From Current Price Level

$196 – Buyers – 1.33:1, -11.25% From Current Price Level

$194 – Buyers – 1.36:1, -12.13% From Current Price Level

$192 – Buyers – 1.24:1, -13.06% From Current Price Level

$190 – Sellers -2.7:1, -13.97% From Current Price Level

$188 – Buyers – 1.19:1, -14.87% From Current Price Level

$186 – Buyers – 1.42:1, -15.78% From Current Price Level

$184 – Buyers – 1.83:1, -16.69% From Current Price Level

$182 – Buyers – 3.36:1, -17.59% From Current Price Level

$180 – Sellers – 1.8:1, -18.5% From Current Price Level

$178 – Sellers – 2.2:1, -19.4% From Current Price Level

$176 – Buyers – 1.27:1, -20.31% From Current Price Level

$174 – Buyers – 1.68:1, -21.21% From Current Price Level

$172 – Buyers – 1.18:1, -22.12% From Current Price Level

$170 – Buyers – 1.24:1, -23.02% From Current Price Level

$168 – Sellers – 1.39:1, -23.93% From Current Price Level

$166 – Sellers – 1.27:1, -24.84% From Current Price Level

$164 – Sellers – 1.78:1, -25.74% From Current Price Level

$162 – Even – 1:1, -26.65% From Current Price Level

$160 – Sellers – 1.07:1, -27.55% From Current Price Level

$158 – NULL – 0:0*, -28.46% From Current Price Level

Price Level:Volume Sentiment Analysis For DIA, The SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF

DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF is also near its all-time high, giving reason to tread cautiously in the near-term while awaiting it to break out definitively to the upside or downside.

The data below shed insight into how strong their support/resistance levels are when they’re approached & re-tested again.

$452 – NULL – 0:0*, +2.46% From Current Price Level

$448 – Buyers – 9:1, +1.56% From Current Price Level

$444 – Buyers – 2.72:1, +0.65% From Current Price Level

$440 – Sellers – 1.24:1, -0.26% From Current Price Level – 10 Day Moving Average & Current Price**

$436 – Buyers – 1.6:1, -1.17% From Current Price Level

$432 – Buyers – 1.88:1, -2.07% From Current Price Level – 50 Day Moving Average*

$428 – Sellers – 1.22:1, -2.98% From Current Price Level

$424 – Buyers – 3.7:1, -3.89% From Current Price Level – 200 Day Moving Average*

$420 – Seller s- 1.21:1, -4.79% From Current Price Level

$416 – Buyers – 1.24:1, -5.7% From Current Price Level

$412 – Sellers – 1.6:1, -6.61% From Current Price Level

$408 – Buyers – 1.27:1, -7.51% From Current Price Level

$404 – Buyers – 3.44:1, -8.42% From Current Price Level

$400 – Buyers – 1.5:1, -9.33% From Current Price Level

$396 – Even – 1:1, -10.23% From Current Price Level

$392 – Buyers – 2.1:1, -11.14% From Current Price Level

$388 – Buyers – 2.13:1, -12.05% From Current Price Level

$384 – Buyers – 1.07:1, -12.95% From Current Price Level

$380 – Sellers – 1.08:1, -13.86% From Current Price Level

$376 – Sellers – 1.41:1, -14.77% From Current Price Level

$372 – Sellers – 1.07:1, -15.67% From Current Price Level

$368 – Buyers – 1.8:1, -16.58% From Current Price Level

$364 – Buyers – 1.86:1, -17.49% From Current Price Level

$360 – Buyers – 2.57:1, -18.39% From Current Price Level

$356 – Buyers – 0.2:0*, -19.3% From Current Price Level

$352 – Buyers – 2:1, -20.21% From Current Price Level

$348 – Sellers – 2:1, -21.11% From Current Price Level

$344 – Buyers – 0.9:0*, -22.02% From Current Price Level

$340 – Buyers – 1.7:1, -22.93% From Current Price Level

$336 – Buyers – 1.42:1, -23.83% From Current Price Level

$332 – Buyers – 1.71:1, -24.74% From Current Price Level

$328 – Buyers – 1.74:1, -25.65% From Current Price Level

$324 – Buyers – 1.1:1, -26.55% From Current Price Level

$320 – Buyers – 1.22:1, -27.46% From Current Price Level

$316 – Sellers – 1.15:1, -28.37% From Current Price Level

$312 – Buyers – 1.1:1, -29.27% From Current Price Level

$308 – Even – 1:1, -30.18% From Current Price Level

$304 – Sellers – 3.2:1, -31.09% From Current Price Level

$300 – Buyers – 1.25:1, -31.99% From Current Price Level

$296 – Sellers – 1.71:1, -32.9% From Current Price Level

$292 – Sellers – 2.13:1, -33.81% From Current Price Level

$288 – Sellers – 1.45:1, -34.71% From Current Price Level

$284 – Sellers – 1.3:1, -35.62% From Current Price Level

$280 – Sellers – 2.29:1, -36.53% From Current Price Level

$276 – Sellers – 7.33:1, -37.43% From Current Price Level

$272 – NULL – 0:0*, -38.34% From Current Price Level

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM OR DIA AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF fell -2.41% last week, while the VIX closed the week out at 20.38, indicating an implied one day move of +/-1.28% & an implied one month move of +/-5.89%.

Their RSI has just crossed down below the neutral 50 level & sits at 47.89, while their MACD is still bearish, as it was for most of the month of July.

Volumes were +43.87% higher than the prior year’s average (87,878,000 vs. 61,080,680), which should be cause for concern given that the declining volumes increased day-over-day throughout the week.

Monday the week began on a bearish note, as the week’s lowest volume session resulted in a decline & a doji candle, indicating that market participants were on edge, and awaiting more earnings reports, the FOMC rate decision & other economic data before making any sudden movements.

Tuesday the bearishness continued, as SPY opened higher, before declining throughout the session to ultimately form a bearish engulfing pattern on slightly higher volume than Monday’s session.

Wednesday the theme continued, but there was a test of the support of the 10 day moving average, while momentarily broke down before SPY was able to recover to close down -0.13% for the day, resulting in a spinning top candle which signals that there was indecision among market participants.

Following Wednesday’s unchanged FOMC interest rate decision & more earnings coming in Thursday opened on a gap higher, before sliding lower & ultimately taking out the support of the 10 day moving average, closing beneath it & forming a bearish engulfing pattern.

Friday confirmed that the bears had come out to play & that there was no risk appetite heading into the weekend when SPY opened on a gap down & continued lower, with the day’s low briefly dropping to $619.29/share, before closing at $621.72, a day-over-day decline of -1.64%.

Heading into the coming week, there is a new upside case emerging, where the resistance of the 10 day moving average will need to be broken through to see SPY continue higher, where it will test its all-time high set by Thurday’s session’s high.

The consolidation case for the time being involves SPY oscillating back & forth between the 10 & 50 day moving averages awaiting an upside or downside catalyst.

In the event that the support of the 50 day moving average breaks down, things get a bit murkier, leading to the declining case.

In the event that this brings price down to the neighborhood of $603.41 then we will likely see the window created in late June close, which then sets all eyes on the support of the 200 day moving average.

In that set up, the 10 & 50 day moving averages would be bearing down on SPY’s price & they’d be priced in the neighborhood to close the gap that was created in early May 2025 that is still unfilled.

The 200 day moving average is -5.81% below Friday’s closing price, but the $590-599.99/share level has sparse support levels, which may make it easier to be passed through quickly.

The table below lays out SPY’s volume sentiment historically from the past few years & can be referenced in the event of the re-tests mentioned above in order to assess the strength/weakness of support/resistance levels.

SPY has support at the $610.59 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $609.59 (Volume Sneimtent: Buyers, 2.6:1), $607.15 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.6:1) & $603.42/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 7:1) price levels, with resistance at the $632.38 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $639.85/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF dipped -2.21%, as investors in the tech-heavy index were slightly less inclined to sell, but were still clearly on the fence about the near-term.

Their RSI also has just come crashing back to below the neutral 50-mark & sits at 48.34, while their MACD is also still bearish, having spent most of the month of July below the signal line.

Volumes were +28.18% higher than the prior year’s average (50,880,000 vs. 39,692,640), mostly due to the last two sessions of the week, indicating that there is risk-off sentiment in the market for QQQ.

Monday kicked the week off on a similar (but slightly less pessimistic) manner as SPY, as a gap up open resulted in a lower close & a thick doji candle for QQQ.

Tuesday followed suit & on another low volume session a gap up saw a slightly advance, before crumbling lower to form a bearish engulfing candle for the day.

Wednesday opened in Tuesday’s range, testing slightly higher & lower as shown by the upper & lower shadows on the day’s candle, before ultimately closing lower than the open & forming a bearish harami pattern with Tuesday’s candle.

Thursday is where market participants really stepped up, as QQQ opened on a gap up, made a fresh all-time high, before diving lower to form a bearish engulfing candle that closed straddling the 10 day moving average’s support.

Friday saw the tipping point, where QQQ opened on a gap lower & continued lower throughout the day, although they were able to regain some losses before the session’s close based on the lower shadow.

QQQ’s near-term outlook is similar to SPY’s, with their upside case hinging upon being able to break out above their 10 DMA’s resistance; until that happens there’s not much to talk about.

Should it occur, we’re then off to try to break out above their all-time high, which will require the same high, sustained advancing volume that’s been mentioned over the past month.

The consolidation case is also the same as SPY’s, QQQ in that situation will oscillate around between the 10 & 50 day moving averages awaiting an upside or downside catalyst.

QQQ’s downside case is also quite similar to SPY’s; should the 50 day moving average’s support break down, $536.27 will be the price to watch, as if QQQ reaches it we’ll see the window created in late June close.

After that, the 200 day moving average will be in focus, which is currently -7.97% below Friday’s closing price.

Should that show weakness or break down, all eyes should be directed towards the window created in mid-May.

QQQ has support at the $542.66 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $539.40 (Volume Sneimtent: Buyers, 3.67:1), $536.88 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.67:1) & $532.43/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3:1) price levels, with resistance at the $564.29 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $574.63/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF declined -4.22%, as the small cap index had the worst week of the major four index ETFs.

Their RSI has also crossed below the neutral 50 mark & sits at 41.43, while their MACD continues lower with its histogram signaling that there is likely further declines on the horizon.

Volumes were +37.26% higher than the prior year’s average (41,860,000 vs. 30,497,320), which signals that there is severe discomfort among the small cap names currently, as every session of the week resulted in declining candles.

Monday the small cap investors went straight to the point compared to SPY & QQQ investors, as the session resulted in a bearish engulfing candle whose low just barely stayed above the support of the 10 day moving average.

Tuesday opened higher, before forming a bearish engulfing pattern on Monday’s candle & closing below the support of the 10 day moving average.

Wednesday opened in-line with the 10 DMA, briefly tested higher reaching as high as $224.93/share, but ultimately dipped lower to close below the 10 day moving average & the lower shadow on the day’s candle indicates that there was appetite for IWM to trade below $220/share.

It is also worth nothing that Wednesday’s volume was near Monday & Tuesday’s combined levels, so between profit taking & fleeing to safety a lot of shares were changing hands, a trend that only continued throughout the week.

Thursday the pain continued, when IWM opened on a gap down, attempted to climb back to the 10 DMA’s resistance, but was stopped short & slid for a loss of -0.98% day-over-day.

Friday the bears were on parade for IWM, as the ETF opened on a gap lower, hardly tested much higher, before breaking down to go as low as $212.34/share & to close down -2.04% for the day on the week’s highest volume as everyone was jumping out of the pool.

This is somewhat to be expected among the small cap names following the performance of SPY & QQQ, but it should be noted that IWM closed below both its 50 & 200 day moving averages, which are both well below their 10 DMA.

This breakdown of the medium & long-term trend lines will be an area of focus in the coming week, but the overall direction of IWM will most likely be determined by the direction that the other 3 major indexes move in.

Upside case as shown below requires the $216.91/share level to be broken & sustained above before it carries any water, particularly given the amount of resistance levels in the $215-217 price range & the historic Seller oriented historic price movements at these levels.

The consolidation case looks to be oscillations around the 200 DMA while awaiting an upside or downside catalyst.

To the downside, the $209.55 & $208.69/share price levels will be key to watch in the coming week if there is a downside catalyst for IWM.

In the event of a breakdown of these two levels, there are only two support levels between the price & the $199.01/share support levels, which opens IWM up for potentially large losses in the near-to-mid-term.

IWM has support at the $212.90 (2 Touch-Points, Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.89:1), $209.55 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.9:1), $208.69 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.9:1) & $206.81/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.11:1) price levels, with resistance at the $215.16 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.89:1), $215.22 (200 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.89:1), $215.34 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.89:1) & $215.65/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.89:1) price levels.

DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF lost -2.96% last week, as even the blue chip names were unable to escape the week unharmed.

Their RSI has also dipped through the neutral 50 mark to the downside & is currently at 42.44, while their MACD is continuing to move more bearishly from the signal line.

Volumes were +24.3% higher than the prior year’s average (3,996,000 vs. 3,214,760), which is cause for concern given that each session of the week was a decline & each’s volumes got progressively higher day-over-day.

Monday opened the week up with a bearish harami cross on weak volume, setting the stage for more declines to come.

Tuesday opened higher but closed down in-line with the 10 day moving average’s support, forming a bearish engulfing candle with Monday’s on slightly higher volume.

Wednesday saw a breakdown of the 10 day moving average’s support, with an appetite to continue lower based on the session’s lower shadow.

Thursday opened in line with the 10 DMA, before proceeding lower & setting the stage for Friday’s high volume gap down open that continued lower to close the day out -1.27%, while also temporarily breaking down the 50 day moving average intraday.

The upside case for DIA is going to focus on the 10 DMA’s resistance to begin; if it can’t be broken through then expect a move lower, if it can be broken through, then the breaking the all-time high case of the past month is back in place.

Consolidation looks like oscillations between the 50 & 200 day moving averages as we await an upside or downside catalyst.

Like IWM, the downside case now relied heavily upon the strength of the support of the 200 DMA, as if the long-term trendline breaks down there is a bit of Seller pressure in two of the immediate three price zones below it & sentiment is already souring based on the increasing day-over-day declining volume trend of last week.

DIA has support at the $434.00 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.5:1), $430.10 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.43:1), $428.13 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.43:1) & $427.27/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 4.5:1) price levels, with resistance at the $439.66 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.71:1), $445.14 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 14:1), $446.54 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 14:1) & $446.82/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 14:1) price levels.

The Week Ahead

Monday the week begins with Factory Orders data at 10 am.

Palantir Technologies, BioCryst Pharma, BioNTech, Bruker, CNA Financial, Energizer, Freshpet, IDEXX Labs, Krystal Biotech, onsemi, TG Therapuetics, Tower Semi, Transocean, Tyson Foods, Waters & Wayfair all report earnings before Monday’s opening bell, followed by Addus HomeCare, ADTRAN, Aecom Tech, Air Lease, Allegiant Travel, Allison Transmission, Ameresco, Andersons, Ardelyx, Atlas Energy Solutions, Axon, B&G Foods, BellRing Brands, BioMarin Pharmaceutical, BWX Technologies, Cabot, Corebridge Financial, Coterra Energy, Denny’s, Diamondback Energy, Dorman Products, Douglas Dynamics, Encompass Health, Equity Residential, EverQuote, Golub Capital, Helios Technologies, Hims & Hers Health, IAC Inc., ICHOR Corporation, Ingevity, Inspire Medical Systems, JBT Marel Corporation, Kyndryl, Lattice Semi, LTC Properties, Marriott Vacations, MSA Safety, Mueller Water, National Storage Affiliates, Navitas Semiconductor, New Mountain Finance, NJ Resources, ODDITY Tech Ltd., Olo Inc., ONEOK, Otter Tail Power, Palantir Technologies, Palomar Holdings, Paymentus, Primoris Services, Ryman Hospitality, Sabra Health Care REIT, SBA Comm, Simon Properties, Syndax Pharmaceuticals, Tanger Factory, Tidewater, Trex, UFP Technologies, V2X, Vertex Pharma, Vimeo, Viper Energy Partners, Vornado Rlty Trust, Voyager Technologies, Williams Cos & ZoomInfo after the session’s close. 

U.S. Trade Deficit Data comes out at 8:30 am on Tuesday, before S&P Final U.S. Services PMI data at 9:45 am & ISM Services data at 10 am.

Tuesday morning’s earnings reports include AdaptHealth, ADM, Alight, Apollo Global Management, Aramark, Atkore International, Avanos Medical, Axcelis Tech, Azenta, Ball Corp, BP, Broadridge Financial, Camtek, Caterpillar, Clear Secure, Cummins, Cushman & Wakefield, DigitalOcean, Driven Brands, Duke Energy, DuPont, Easterly Government Properties, Eaton, Edgewell Personal Care, Embraer SA, Enpro Inc., Enviri Corporation, EVgo Inc., Expeditors Intl, Fidelity Nat’l Info, First Watch Restaurant Group, Fox Corporation, Frontdoor, Frontier Group Holdings, Gartner, Hamilton Lane, Harmony Biosciences, Henry Schein, Hillman Solutions Corp., IPG Photonics, J&J Snack Foods, Jacobs Solutions, Knife River Corp., LCI Industries, Leidos, Lemonade, LGI Homes, Life Time, Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Marathon Petroleum, Marriott, Molson Coors Brewing, MPLX LP, NNN REIT, Northwest Natural, Novanta, Oaktree Specialty Lending Corp, Ocular Therapeutix, Organon, Pediatrix Medical Group, Pfizer, Portillo’s, Public Service, Recursion Pharmaceuticals, Rhythm Pharmaceuticals, Sally Beauty, Sealed Air, Shift4 Payments, Shoals Technologies, Silicon Labs, Spire, Sportradar Group AG, Stevanato Group S.p.A., Surgery Partners, TopBuild, Transdigm Group, UL Solutions Inc., Uniti Group, Westlake Corporation, WK Kellogg Co, Xometry, Yum China, Yum! Brands, Zebra Tech & Zoetis, before  8×8, A10 Networks, Acadia Healthcare, Adaptive Biotechnologies, Advanced Energy, Advanced Micro Devices, Aflac, Agilon Health, American Fincl, Amgen, Angi Inc., Arista Networks, Assurant, Astera Labs, BlackLine, BridgeBio Pharma, Cadre Holdings, California Resources, Centrus Energy, Chemours, Cirrus Logic, Clearway Energy, Coupang, DaVita, Devon Energy, DoubleVerify, Douglas Emmett, Elme Communities, Equitable Holdings, Evolus, Flywire, Grocery Outlet, GXO Logistics, Halozyme Therapeutics, Hinge Health, Innospec, Innovex International, Interparfums, Intl Flavors, Jackson Financial, Jazz Pharma, JELD-WEN, Kemper, Klaviyo, Lemaitre Vascular, Limbach, Lucid Group, Masimo, Match Group, MNTN, Inc., Mosaic, News Corp., Noble Corporation, ONE Gas, Opendoor Technologies, OUTFRONT Media, Pacira BioSciences, Par Pacific, Paylocity, Powell Inds, Qiagen, Qualys, QuidelOrtho, Regal Rexnord, Resideo, Revolve Group, RingCentral, Rivian Automotive, Safehold, Select Water Solutions, SITE Centers, Skyline Champion, Skyworks, Snap, Stride, Suncor Energy, Super Micro Computer, Supernus Pharma, Teradata, The Baldwin Group, Toast, Ultragenyx Pharma, Upstart, Vestis, Viasat, Voya Financial & Zeta Global report following the session’s close. 

There is no major economic data scheduled for release on Wednesday.

Wednesday morning features earnings from ACM Research, Adient, Avista, Avnet, Barrick Mining, Bentley Systems, BeOne Medicines, Bio-Techne, Bloomin’ Brands, Brinks, Capri Holdings, Carlyle Group, CDW, Cencora, Charles River, Choice Hotels, Conduent, Dave, Inc., Dayforce, Delek US Holdings, Dine Brands, DNOW Inc., Dynatrace, Emerson, ESAB Corp., Extreme Networks, Fortrea, Genius Sports, Geron, Gibraltar Industries, Global Payments, International Seaways, Iron Mountain, Jones Lang LaSalle, Kennametal, Kornit Digital, Lantheus Holdings, Lineage, LivaNova, Louisiana-Pacific, Magnera Corporation, MarketAxess, McDonald’s, Middleby, MRC Global, National Vision, New York Times, NiSource, Nomad Foods, Novavax, NRG Energy, ODP Corporation, Oscar Health, Owens Corning, Parsons, Payoneer, Perrigo, Pinnacle West, Planet Fitness, Rockwell Automation, Scholar Rock, Shopify, Six Flags Entertainment, Starz Entertainment Corp, Sunoco LP, Sunstone Hotel, Thomson Reuters, TPG Inc., Trimble, Unity Software, Valvoline, Vertex, Vishay, Walt Disney, Wix.com, Wolverine & XPEL, before  ACADIA Pharmaceuticals, ADMA Biologics, Airbnb, Alpha and Omega Semi, Amdocs, American Intl, American States Water, Amplitude, AppLovin, Atmos Energy, B2Gold, Barrett Business, Beyond Meat, Blue Bird, BrightView, Bumble, CACI Intl, Capital Southwest Corp., CareDx, Central Garden, Certara, CF Industries, Chord Energy, Civitas Resources, Clearwater Analytics, Coeur Mining, Copa Holdings, CoreCivic, Corpay, Corteva, Crane NXTC, CRH Plc., CSG Systems, Curtiss-Wright, Deluxe, DHT, Digi Intl, DoorDash, DraftKings, Duolingo, Dutch Bros, e.l.f. Beauty, Encore Capital, Energy Transfer, Enersys, EverCommerce, Exact Sciences, Fastly, Federal Realty, Fidelity National, Fortinet, FS KKR Capital, Genco Shipping & Trading, GoodRx, Grand Canyon Education, Hecla Mining, Herbalife Nutrition, Horace Mann, Howard Hughes Holdings, HubSpot, Informatica, IonQ, Jack In The Box, Joby Aviation, Kinetik, Kulicke & Soffa, LandBridge, Light & Wonder, LiveRamp, Lyft, Magnite, Manulife Financial, Marqeta, McKesson, MediaAlpha, MetLife, MKS Inc., Murphy Oil, National Health, NCR Atleos, Nutrien, Occidental Petro, OPENLANE, Orion Engineered Carbons, Ormat Tech, Pan Am Silver, Paycom Software, Permian Resources, Power Integrations, Primerica, PROCEPT BioRobotics, Rayonier, RB Global, Realty Income, Remitly Global, Root, Inc., Royal Gold, Schrodinger, Seadrill Ltd, Sinclair Broadcast, SiTime, Sitio Royalties Corp., Sonos, Sprout Social, Steris, Sunrun, Symbotic, Talos Energy, Tandem Diabetes Care, Tennant, TKO Group Holdings, Tutor Perini, U.S. Physical Therapy, Uber & UGI Corp report earnings after the closing bell. 

Thursday delivers Initial Jobless Claims & U.S. Productivity data at 8:30 am, followed by Wholesale Inventories & Fed President Bostic speaking at 10 am & Consumer Credit data at 3pm.

Constellation Energy, ACI Worldwide, Acushnet, Advanced Drainage Systems, Allete, Altice USA, Americold Realty Trust, Appian, Aspen Aerogels, Avadel Pharmaceuticals, BCE Inc, Becton Dickinson, Canadian Natrl Res, Cars.com, Cheniere Energy, Cogent Communications, Collegium Pharmaceutical, ConocoPhillips, Construction Partners, Crocs, Datadog, Dentsply Sirona, DigitalBridge, Ducommun, Ecovyst, Elanco Animal Health, Eli Lilly, Enovis Corporation, EPAM Systems, Establishment Labs, Evergy, First Advantage Corp., Gogo, Granite Constr, Haemonetics, Hanesbrands, Hertz Global, Himax Tech, Hyatt Hotels, Insmed, Installed Building Products, Janus International Group, Kelly Services, Kenvue, Kimbell Royalty Partners, Kontoor Brands, Krispy Kreme, LifeStance Health Group, Ligand Pharma, MACOM Tech, Martin Marietta, MAXIMUS, MDU Resources, Millicom International Cel, N-able, NCR Voyix Corporation, NetScout Systems, Nexstar, Nova Measuring, Olaplex, Pagaya, Papa John’s, Parker-Hannifin, Peloton, PENN Entertainment, Playtika, Prestige Consumer, Primo Brands Corporation, Privia Health, Ralph Lauren, Restaurant Brands Int’l, RXO, Inc., Sabre, Sempra Energy, SharkNinja, SolarEdge Technologies, Somnigroup International, Spectrum Brands, Starwood Property Trust, Tecnoglass, TEGNAT, United Parks & Resorts Inc., US Foods, Viatris, Vital Farms, Walker & Dunlop, Warby Parker, Warner Bros. Discovery, Warner Music Group, YETI Holdings & Zimmer Biomet, followed by 10x Genomics, Adtalem Global Education, Akamai Tech, Alarm.com, Alliant Energy, American Healthcare REIT, AMN Healthcare, Applied Optoelectronics, Arcosa, Arlo Technologies, Array Tech, Arrowhead, Artivion, Assured Guaranty, Astrana Health, Atlassian, AvePoint, Barings BDC, Block, Brighthouse Financial, CarGurus, Chesapeake Utilities, Chime, Clean Energy Fuels, Con Edison, Concentra, Corsair Gaming, Crinetics Pharmaceuticals, Cytokinetics, Definitive Healthcare, Diamondrock Hospitality, Doximity, Dropbox, Esco Tech, Evolent Health, Expedia Group, FIGS, Inc., Flutter Entertainment, Fox Factory Holding, Funko, Gen Digital, Genpact, Gilead Sciences, Globus Medical, GoDaddy, Grindr, ICU Medical, indie Semiconductor, Instacart, Insulet, Integral Ad Science, JFrog, Karman Space and Defense, Kratos Defense and Security, LegalZoom.com, Live Nation, Manitowoc, Microchip, Motorola Solutions, MP Materials, NerdWallet, nLIGHT, Omada Health, OneStream, Onto Innovation, Pembina Pipeline, Pinterest, Post, Progyny, PTC Therapeutics, Rapid7, RLJ Lodging Trust, Rocket Lab USA, RxSight, Solventum, SoundHound AI, StepStone Group, Sun Life, Sweetgreen, Synaptics, Take-Two, Texas Roadhouse, The Trade Desk, TripAdvisor, Trupanion, Twilio, Viavi, Victory Capital, Westrock Coffee Company, Wheaton Precious Metals, Wynn Resorts, XPLR Infrastructure, Xponential Fitness, Yelp & Zymeworks after the closing bell.  

There is no major economic data scheduled for release on Friday.

Friday morning’s earnings calls include Algonquin Power & Utilities, Alpha Metallurgical Resources, American Axle, Atmus Filtration Technologies, Calumet Specialty Products, Embecta Corp., Essent Group, fuboTV, Gray Media, Koppers Holdings, Lamar Advertising, Open Text, PAR Technology, Plains All American, Sotera Health, Sylvamo, Tempus AI, TeraWulf, Under Armour & Wendy’s. 

See you back here next week!

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM OR DIA AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF advanced 1.52% last week, while the VIX closed at 14.93 indicating an implied one day move of +/-0.94% & an implied one month move of +/-4.32%.

Their RSI is overbought at 76.18, while their MACD is bearish, but approaching the signal line & may dolphin above it briefly in the coming week.

Volumes were +6.57% higher than the prior year’s average (64,422,000 vs. 60,452,000), which signals that there was a bit of cautious climbing higher in response to earnings call results, given that all five sessions of the week were advancing.

However, they also came flashing warning signs as SPY continued to set new all-time highs throughout the week.

Monday the week opened on what could at first seem like an optimistic note, but closed on a rather grim outlook.

SPY opened on a gap up, climbed to temporarily break out above the $530/share level, but ultimately intraday profit taking resulted in the day losing as a gravestone doji candle, indicating caution & bearishness seeping into the market.

Tuesday was more of the same, but showed that there was some optimism surrounding earnings results, as the session opened in-line with Monday’s, tested lower, before coming back to close as a dragonfly doji.

The support of the 10 day moving average managed to hold up, signaling that the near-term trend is in-tact & the dragonfly doji signaled that there was a cautious sentiment of SPY trading higher, as Wednesday had a heavy schedule of earnings that included GOOG, RTX & TSLA amongst other large companies.

This led to a gap up open on Wednesday, making space between SPY’s price & the 10 day moving average that went relatively untested, aside from a brief dip under the $630/share price level, but shares closed +0.85% up on the day on the week’s second highest volume session.

Thursday produced the highest volume session that came with a catch.

On another gap up open, SPY managed to test higher, but profit taking began & forced the second gravestone doji candle of the week, signaling that there remained near-term uncertainty among market participants.

The week wound down on an advancing session of +0.42%, but the upp shadow on the day’s candle point to more continued caution coming into the new week.

As has been the case for weeks now, the upside case continues to remain that SPY’s all-time high needs to continue climbing higher with strong, sustainable advancing volume.

However, the higher we climb, the less likely this trend is to continue, particularly given the overheated RSI reading that we’re seeing now.

Consolidation looks like oscillations around the 10 DMA, which was -1.29% below Friday’s price at the close, while we wait for the next upside or downside catalyst.

In the event that the catalyst is to the downside & the 10 day moving average does not hold up, there are a few things to take into consideration.

The first being that the gappy ascent of the past month has some windows that have been left open, which are likely to be retested & closed.

Another area of concern is that SPY’s second highest support levels is -4.32% below Friday’s closing price.

While there are three support levels clustered in that zone (including the 50 day moving average which is still advancing), the high 2.6:1 Buyer:Seller ratio historically will likely face some dilution in the event of a retest.

This raises the importance of watching the FOMC decision on Wednesday afternoon, tariff announcements before the Friday deadline & continuing to watch earnings results to see how guidance is changing among SPY component stocks.

SPY has support at the $629.02 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $609.59 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.6:1), $607.15 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.6:1) & $606.40/share (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.6:1) price level, with resistance at the $637.58 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price level.

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF added +0.91% last week, faring the worst of the major four index ETFs.

Their RSI is overbought at 71.94, while their MACD is similar to SPY’s, bearish, but may pop above the signal line briefly this week.

Volumes were-0.8% lower than the prior year’s average (39,200,000 vs. 39,517,960), which is reason for caution given that the highest volume session of the week came on a decline.

Monday opened higher, but showed that much like SPY there were reservations about straying too far from the near-term trendline.

Tuesday confirmed this when QQQ opened higher, but ultimately declined into the session, going as low as to test the 10 day moving average’s support, but it held robust.

Tuesday’s candle also resulted in a bearish engulfing pattern with Monday’s, giving another signal that all sentiment was not entirely well for the tech heavy NASDAQ.

Wednesday inspired some sense of at least near-term optimism, when QQQ opened, retested the 10 DMA’s support again, but was able to close for an advance & form a (weak) bullish harami pattern with Tuesday’s candle.

This lead Thursday’s slight gap up open to be of no surprise, but the fact that it closed as a spinning top candle that closed lower than it opened indicates a mix of caution & confusion among market participants & ultimately does not inspire confidence heading into the new week.

Friday also confirmed this, as despite gaining +0.24% on the day, the session had the week’s lowest volume & the upper shadow on the day’s candle signal that there are cracks forming in confidence around QQQ.

Like SPY, QQQ’s bullish case involves more new all-time highs, which will require a great deal of advancing volume to wind up being successful.

Its consolidation case also is the same as SPY’s & those of weeks past; oscillations around the 10 day moving average’s support until we see some type of upside or downside catalyst.

Similarly, QQQ’s declining case is also much like that of SPY, their first support level is their 10 day moving average, which was -0.88% below Friday’s closing price & the next highest level of support is -4.76% below Friday’s close.

While there is historic Buyer sentiment at the price zone of $535-539.99, there is a window below the three support levels that it houses that needs to be closed, which will likely force a historic dilution of the Buyer strength.

In the near-term though it will be important to watch to see if price retests the three support levels mentioned & to see how sturdily they hold up.

QQQ has support at the $561.39 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $539.40 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.67:1), $538.19 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.67:1) & $536.88/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.67:1) price level, with resistance at the $567.70 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price level.

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF gained +0.92% last week, just edging out QQQ for second worst performing major index ETF of the week.

Their RSI is at 59.1, while their MACD is bearish & trending lower.

Volumes were -1.48% lower than the previous year’s average (30,110,000 vs. 30,562,000), which is signaling that there is a bit of uncertainty & hesitancy coming into this week for the small cap index.

Monday opened the week up on a bearish note, as despite some intra-day advances for IWM as shown by the session’s upper shadow, market participants sold as the day progressed & lead to a close that broke down below the 10 day moving average’s support.

Tuesday opened slightly higher, tested lower, but was able to rally higher, temporarily breaking above Monday’s opening price before settling into the close for a gain of +0.83% & forming a bullish harami pattern with Monday’s candle, signaling that there would be some near-term optimism.

Wednesday saw IWM open on a gap up, briefly see some profit taking, before climbing higher to advance +1.53%, but the day’s lower shadow showed that there was already appetite to take profits & close the window created by the gap.

Thursday saw profits taken down from the table & Friday showed that there was cautious uncertainty abound for the small cap index, as the day resulted in a bearish harami cross that’s low broke down through the 10 day moving average’s support.

The upside case for IWM is the same as last week, as despite the $226.04/share resistance levels breaking down, it came as a result of a gap up & the Seller dominated $224-227.99/share zone remained bearish & denied price to advance much higher.

Now the $226.71/share is the upside target to watch in terms of whether or not IWM can rally higher.

The consolidation case centers around the breakdown of the 10 day moving average, resulting in price oscillating between $224/share & the 200 day moving average while we await a catalyst higher or one that forces the breakdown of the long-term trendline.

The declining case also centers around the breakdown of the 200 day moving average’s support, at which time attention should be brought to the $212.50/share level, which is currently the gatekeeper for the unclosed window that was a result of a gap up in late June.

IWM has support at the $222.86 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.41:1), $222.40 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.41:1), $219.93 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.19:1) & $219.57/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.19:1) price level, with resistance at the $224.60 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.23:1), $225.37 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.23:1), $226.04 (2 Touch-Points*, Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.23:1) & $226.71/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.23:1) price levels.

DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF gained +1.3%, having the second best week of the major four index ETFs, trailing only SPY.

Their RSI is trending higher at 63.45, while their MACD is still bearish & looking like it is ready to head lower coming into the new week.

Volumes were +24.15% higher than the prior year’s average (3,984,000 vs. 3,209,080), which reflects Wednesday’s high volume advancing session & Thursday’s almost as high volume profit taking session primarily.

Monday opened up with appetite for higher prices, but the open & close were straddling the 10 day moving average’s support, show uneasiness among market participants.

Tuesday opened lower & below the 10 DMA, but was able to rally back to close above it for an intra-day gain of +0.34%.

Wednesday opened on a gap higher, briefly retraced a dip lower before powering higher to set a new all-time high on the week’s strongest volume.

Thursday opened on a gap lower, advanced higher briefly, before Sellers came out in droves forcing the session to close on the second highest volume of the week on a bearish gravestone doji candle.

Friday opened on a gap up, retraced down briefly to beyond the lows of Thursday’s session, before climbing higher to advance +0.43% for the day.

This lower shadow signaled that there is appetite for the window created by Wednesday’s gap to be filled in the near-term.

The advancing case for DIA is similar to those of SPY & QQQ, as they are all in similar proximity to all-time highs.

While Wednesday featured high advancing volume, the sustainability has not been shown, both due to the other low volume advancing sessions & by Thursday’s high volume declining session.

Their consolidation case is also similar to the aforementioned index ETFs, as it will likely be oscillations around the 10 day moving average awaiting an upside or downside catalyst.

In the event of a decline, the next three support levels reside in an extreme Buyer oriented zone, which will likely see some dilution in the near-term as there has historically been limited downside action in it.

If the 10 day moving average breaks down, the next ~1% of price has no support levels & is historically dominated by Sellers, which would be cause for further declines, making the $439.66/share support level important.

This is because in the event it breaks down, the next support levels is -1.74% below & sits atop another Seller zone just $0.03 below it, which would likely see more declines that would force the closing of windows left open from late June 2025.

DIA has support at the $446.82 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 14:1), $446.54 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 14:1), $444.96 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 14:1) & $439.66/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.71:1) price level, with resistance at the $450.25 (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price level.

The Week Ahead

Monday opens the week up on a quiet note on the economic news front.

Bank of Hawaii, Enterprise Products & Revvity all report earnings before Monday morning’s session, with Ameris Bancorp, Amkor, Bank of N.T. Butterfield & Son, Beyond, Brixmor Property, Brown & Brown, Cadence Design, Cincinnati Financial, CNO Financial, COPT Defense Properties, Crane, Curbline Properties, Exelixis, Harmonic, Hartford Financial, Kforce, Kilroy Realty, NOV Inc., Nucor, Olin, Piedmont Office Realty Trust, PotlatchDeltic, Principal Financial Group, Rambus, Sanmina, Simpson Manufacturing, UFP Industries, Ultra Clean Holdings, Universal Health, Veralto, Waste Management, Welltower, Western Union, Whirlpool & Woodward after the closing bell.

Advanced U.S. Trade Balance in Goods, Advanced Retail Inventories & Advance Wholesale Inventories all are released Tuesday morning at 8:30 am, before S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index (20 Cities) data at 9 am and Consumer Confidence & Job Openings data at 10 am.

Tuesday morning’s earnings kick off with Procter & Gamble, Alkermes Plc, American Tower, Anywhere Real Estate, Ares Capital, Armstrong World Industries, Asbury Automotive, AstraZeneca, Bandwidth, Brightstar Lottery, Carrier Global, CBRE Group, CECO Environ., Celestica, Commvault Systems, Constellium, Corning, DTE Energy, Eagle Materials, Ecolab, Expro Group, Franklin Electric, GATX, GeneDx, Graphic Packaging, Herc Holdings, Hubbell, Incyte, JetBlue Airways, Johnson Controls, Lithia Motors, Merck, Neogen, NeoGenomics, Norfolk Southern, PayPal, Philips, PJT Partners, Polaris Industries, Repligen, Royal Caribbean, SoFi Technologies, Spotify, Stanley Black & Decker, Sysco, Trimas, UBS AG, UnitedHealth & UPS, before Acadia Realty Trust, Arch Capital, Artisan Partners Asset Mgmt, Ashland, AtriCure, Avis Budget, AXIS Capital, Booking Holdings, BXP, Inc., Caesars Entertainment, Camping World, Cheesecake Factory, Chemed, Electronic Arts, Essex Property, ExlService, Expand Energy, First Commonwealth, First Interstate Bancsystem, Four Corners Property Trust, Freshworks, Frontier Communications Parent, FTAI Aviation Ltd., Gildan Activewear, Highwoods Prop, Houlihan Lokey, Landstar System, Lending Club, Logitech Int’l SA, MARA Holdings Inc., Mondelez Int’l, Nabors Industries, Nextracker, NMI Hldgs, Northwest Bancshares, O-I Glass, Pebblebrook Hotel Trust, Penumbra, PPG Industries, Qorvo, Red Rock Resorts, Regency Centers, Republic Services, Seagate Tech, Sensata Tech, STAG Industrial, Starbucks, Teladoc, Teradyne, Ternium S.A., Titan America, UMB Financial Corporation, Unum Group, Varonis Systems, Visa, W.P. Carey, Werner Enterprises, WesBanco Inc. & Zurn Elkay Water Solutions report following the session’s closing bell. 

Wednesday kicks off with ADP Employment data at 8:15 am, followed by GDP data at 8:30 am, Pending Home Sales data at 10 am, the FOMC Interest-Rate Decision at 2 pm & Fed Chair Powell’s Press Conference at 2:30 pm.

AerCap, Agnico-Eagle Mines, Altria, American Electric, ArcBest, Ardmore Shipping, Automatic Data, Axalta Coating Systems, Bausch + Lomb, Blackbaud, Bunge, CGI Group, Check Point Software, Chefs’ Warehouse, Clarivate, Clean Harbors, Criteo, Entegris, Entergy, Etsy, Evercore, Federal Signal, Fiverr, Fortive, Fresh Del Monte, Garmin, Gates Industrial, GE HealthCare, Generac, GlaxoSmithKline, Harley-Davidson, Hayward Holdings, Hershey Foods, Hess Midstream Partners, Humana, IDEX Corp, Illinois Tool, InMode, Ionis Pharma, Kraft Heinz, Leonardo DRS, Littelfuse, LXP Industrial Trust, Materion, Monro Muffler, Navient, New Oriental Education & Technology, Newmark Group, OGE Energy, Old Dominion, OneSpaWorld, Option Care Health, Penske Auto, ProPetro, Radware, Reynolds Consumer Products, Scorpio Tankers, Scotts Miracle-Gro, Silgan Holdings, SiteOne Landscape Supply, Sleep Number, Smurfit Westrock plc, Stepan Company, Steven Madden, Stifel Financial, Strategic Education, Teva Pharma, The Vita Coco Company, Thryv, Timken, Tradeweb Markets, Trane, United Therapeutics, V.F. Corp, Verisk Analytics, Vertiv, Virtu Financial, Watsco, WEC Energy Group & Wingstop all report earnings before Wednesday’s opening bell, followed by Albany Intl, Albemarle, Align Tech, Alignment Healthcare, Alkami Technology, American Water Works, Antero Midstream, Antero Resources, Applied Digital Corporation, Arm Holdings plc, AvalonBay, Axos Financial, Benchmark Electronics, Black Hills Corp, C.H. Robinson, Cactus, Canadian Pacific Kansas City, Carlisle Cos, Carvana, CBIZ, Cognex, Cognizant Tech, Comstock, Confluent, CONMED, Custom Truck One Source, CVR Energy, Dexcom, eBay, Element Solutions, Employers Holdings, EPR Properties, Equinix, Ethan Allen, Everest Group, EVERTEC, Extra Space Storage, F5 Networks, Fair Isaac, FirstEnergy, Flowserve, FMC Corp, Ford Motor, FormFactor, Glaukos, Green Brick Partners, Guardant Health, Hanover Insurance, Hologic, Host Hotels, Impinj, Independence Realty Trust, Invitation Homes, Lam Research, Magnolia Oil & Gas, Merit Medical, Meta Platforms, MGIC Investment, MGM Resorts, Microsoft, Mid-America Aptmt, Mister Car Wash, Modine Manufacturing, Murphy USA, MYR Group, National Fuel Gas, NETGEAR, Neurocrine Biosciences, NorthWestern, Pilgrim’s Pride, Pitney Bowes, Prudential, PTC, Public Storage, Q2 Holdings, Qualcomm, Radian Group, Robinhood Markets, Rush Enterprises, Rush Street Interactive, Service Corp, Silicon Motion, Sixth Street Specialty Lending, Sprouts Farmers Market, SPS Commerce, Sturm Ruger, Sun Communities, Tenable, Tenaris, Tetra Tech, TransMedics Group, Tronox, TTM Tech, Tyler Tech, Udemy, UDR, Ventas, VICI Properties, VSE Corp, Waystar Holding Corp. & Western Digital after the session closes.  

Initial Jobless Claims, Employment Cost Index, Personal Income, Personal Spending, PCE Index, PCE (Year-over-Year), Core PCE Index & Core PCE Index (Year-over-Year) are all released Thursday at 8:30 am, before the Chiacgo Business Barometer (PMI) data is released at 9:45 am.

Thursday’s morning earnings calls include AbbVie, AGCO Corp, Air Products, Alamos, Allegro Microsystems, Alnylam Pharma, Ametek, Amicus Therapeutics, Anheuser-Busch InBev, APi Group, Aptiv, ArcelorMittal, Arrow Electronics, ATI Inc., Autohome, Balchem, Baxter, Belden, BigCommerce, Biogen, BorgWarner, Bristol-Myers, Brookfield Infrastructure, Builders FirstSource, California Water, Cameco, Canada Goose, Carpenter Tech, Chart Industries, CMS Energy, Colliers, Comcast, Cullen/Frost, CVS Health, Donnelley Financial, DT Midstream, EMCOR Group, Euronet, Exelon, Genesis Energy, L.P., GFL Environmental, HF Sinclair, Hilton Grand Vacations, Howmet Aerospace, Huntington Ingalls, IdaCorp, Insight Enterprises, Int’l Paper, Integra, Intercontinental Exchange, InterDigital, Itron, ITT, Janus Henderson Group, KBR, Kellanova, Kimco Realty, Kinross Gold, Kirby, KKR, Laureate Education, Lightspeed, Lincoln Electric, Lincoln National, Masco, Mastercard, Methanex, MGP Ingredients, Norwegian Cruise Line, Oil States, Omnicell, Patrick Industries, PBF Energy, Peabody Energy, PG&E, PPL Corp, Protolabs, Quanta Services, Roblox, S&P Global, Sanofi, Schneider National, Shake Shack, Sirius XM, Southern, Stagwell, TC Energy, Teleflex, Terex, The Cigna Group, TreeHouse Foods, Trinity Industries, Upbound Group, Utz Brands, Valaris, Vericel, Vontier, Vulcan Materials, Wesco, Willis Towers Watson, Xcel Energy, XPO, Inc. & Xylem, with Amazon.com,  Apple, Agree Realty, Alphatec, Ameren, American Homes 4 Rent, AppFolio, AptarGroup, Arthur J. Gallagher, Beazer Homes, Bio-Rad Labs, BJ Restaurants, Bloom Energy, Bright Horizons, Camden Property, Casella Waste, CCC Intelligent Solutions, Clorox, Cloudflare, Cohu, Coinbase Global, Columbia Sportswear, Cousins Prop, CubeSmart, Dolby Labs, DXC Technology, Eastman Chemical, Edison, El Pollo Loco, Enovix, Envista, Essential Utilities, Eversource Energy, eXp World Holdings, Exponent, Federated Hermes, First Solar, Five9, Floor & Decor, Fortune Brands Innovations, Grid Dynamics, Healthcare Realty, Hercules Capital, Hub Group, Huntsman, Huron Consulting, ICF International, Illumina, Ingersoll-Rand, Innodata, iRhythm, KLA Corporation, Leggett & Platt, LendingTree, LPL Financial, Lumen Technologies, MasTec, Matson, Mettler-Toledo, MicroStrategy d/b/a Strategy, Monolithic Power, Northern Oil & Gas, Omega Health, Park Hotels & Resorts, Perdoceo Education, Procore Technologies, PROS Holdings, Quaker Chemical, Reinsurance Group of America, ResMed, Rocket Companies, Roku, Ryan Specialty Group, Savers Value Village, Select Medical, Skyward Specialty Insurance, SM Energy, SPX Technologies, Stryker, Universal Display, WillScot Mobile Mini, Workiva & World Kinect Corporation  host their earnings calls after the session’s close.

Friday begins with U.S. Employment report, U.S. Unemployment Rate, U.S. Hourly Wages & Hourly Wages Year-over-Year data at 8:30 am, followed by S&P Final U.S. Manufacturing PMI data at 9:45 am and ISM Manufacturing, Construction Spending & Consumer Sentiment (Final) data at 10 am.

Ares Management, Avantor, Avient, BrightSpring Health Services, Cboe Global Markets, Chevron, Church & Dwight, Colgate-Palmolive, Dominion Energy, Exxon Mobil, Fluor, Fortis, Franklin Resources, Fulgent Genetics, Grainger, Imperial Oil, Ingredion, Insperity, Interface, Kimberly-Clark, Linde plc, LyondellBasell, Magna, Moderna, Newell Brands, nVent Electric, Oshkosh, Perella Weinberg Partners, Piper Sandler, RBC Bearings, Regeneron Pharma, T. Rowe Price, Telus, WisdomTree & Xenia Hotels all report earnings before the session’s closing bell. 

See you back here next week!

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES NOR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM, OR DIA AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***