Author: OptimizedValue

Market indexes have found themselves hovering near new 52-week highs over the past week as we head into the year’s end; Santa delivered this Christmas season!

As it is the end of the year & we are at new price extremes on the upside, it is worth taking time to review how these buyers & sellers have behaved at different price levels for each of the indexes.

The article below outlines a brief technical analysis of recent performance for SPY, QQQ, IWM & DIA, as well as a price level:volume sentiment analysis for each index covering the past 1-2 years worth of data (3-4 years for DIA).

As always, this is not meant to serve as investing advice, but rather as a barometer to use as an additional tool when doing your own due diligence.

When reading the price level:volume sentiment portions below note that the top images show the price level:volume sentiment at the past year’s support & resistance levels for each index, the bottom image shows the individual price levels & their relationship to the current price level, and the lists below them include the same data as the second image where all of the support & resistance levels are marked in bold.

Technical Analysis Of SPY, The SPDR S&P 500 ETF

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF gained +0.92% last week, staying relatively range-bound just above the support of the ascending 10 day moving average.

Their RSI is currently overbought at 71.41, while their MACD is bullish, but moving relatively flat, which tends to signal a bearish crossover & a consolidation period are on the horizon.

Volumes were -6.31% below average last week compared to the year prior (76,570,440 vs. 81,726,945), indicating a lack of confidence near new 52-week highs, as well as traders taking vacations ahead of the Christmas holiday.

Monday kicked the week off on a note of uncertainty with a spinning top candlestick that closed just above Friday’s upper shadow, with upper & lower shadows being roughly the same size.

Tuesday opened higher & climbed steadily towards the $475 price level, but fell short at $474.92 for the day’s high, while closing just below it for the day at $474.84/share.

A new 52-week high was established Wednesday at $475.89/share after the day’s session opened at the midway point of Tuesday’s candle, but profits were eagerly taken & the day closed lower, but remained above the 10 DMA (even its lower shadow) as a sign of support.

Thursday hinted at more skittishness among market participants with a hanging man candle that tested lower, but did not dip lower than the day prior’s close as the 10 DMA maintained support & forced the session to close higher (although only 75-80% of the day prior’s candle), although a bearish harami pattern was formed after the close with Wednesday’s candle.

The week ended as uncertain as it began from a technical perspective, with Friday closing in a doji whose upper shadow did not get as high as Wednesday’s candle’s & whose lower shadow covered most of the prior day’s candle’s real body.

Their Average True Range does not reflect a strong trend & has been showing weakening as the week progressed, which when paired with the uncertainty of the candles does seem to signal that we are nearing a cooldown period.

The strongest volume session of the week was Wednesday, which was a declining session & the bullish sessions except for Thursday’s all had volumes that were <75% of Wednesday’s declining volumes, signaling a lack of enthusiasm for more risk in the near-term.

There is an emerging bearish head & shoulders pattern which will be something to keep an eye on as we enter the new year, particularly if there is a consolidation around the $450-460/share price range, where the 50 DMA will be a support level to keep an eye on, as well as the $455.98 & $450.25/share price levels.

Price Level:Volume Sentiment Analysis For SPY, The SPDR S&P 500 ETF

SPY’s reaching new 52-week highs has created an interesting area in terms of volume analysis, as there is limited data in terms of the strength of buyers:sellers currently until a -3.73% decline has taken place, bringing prices down to $456/share.

This will be particularly interesting as their 2nd highest support level is currently at $455.98/share & this would likely trigger the support that would lay the groundwork for the bearish head & shoulders pattern mentioned above.

Again, due to the limited data as these price levels are higher than usual the support zone that is depicted below between the -3.73%-8.79% block will get fuzzy, as the strongest volume sentiments lie above the -5.42% range from the current price in the image below.

Should support break down in the other buyer dominated ranges their price will enter a seller dominated zone that dips down to -12.17% from their current price to $416/share.

There are support points in the $412-413 price range which has been 1.54 Buyers:1 Seller over the past 1-2 years, but this could pave the way to test the $407.56/share support level, which if broken would likely bring a test of the $400/share price level, given that the sellers get more aggressive in the $400-403.99/share range, which comes after a seller dominated zone already.

The chart below outlines the price level:volume sentiment for the major support & resistance areas of the past year, followed by the list of each price level’s volume sentiment.

$476 – NULL – 0:0*; +0.5% From Current Price Level

$472 – NULL – 0:0*; -0.35% From Current Price Level – Current Price Box*

$468 – NULL – 0:0*; -1.19% From Current Price Level – 10 Day Moving Average*

$464 – NULL – 0:0*; -2.04% From Current Price Level

$460 – NULL – 0:0*; -2.88% From Current Price Level

$456 – NULL – 0:0*; -3.73% From Current Price Level

$452 – Buyers – 2.33:1; -4.57% From Current Price Level

$448 – Buyers – 2.133:1; -5.42% From Current Price Level

$444 – Buyers – 1.56:1; -6.26% From Current Price Level – 50 Day Moving Average*

$440 – Buyers – 1.19:1; -7.1% From Current Price Level

$436 – Buyers – 1.6:1; -7.95% From Current Price Level

$432 – Buyers – 1.05:1; -8.79% From Current Price Level

$428 – Sellers – 1.29:1; -9.64% From Current Price Level

$424 – Sellers – 1.14:1; -10.48% From Current Price Level

$420 – Sellers – 1.87:1; -11.33% From Current Price Level

$416 – Sellers – 1.36:1; -12.17% From Current Price Level

$412 – Buyers – 1.54:1; -13.02% From Current Price Level

$408 – Buyers – 2.22:1; -13.86% From Current Price Level

$404 – Sellers – 1.15:1; -14.7% From Current Price Level

$400 – Sellers – 2.06:1; -15.55% From Current Price Level

$396 – Buyers – 1.27:1; -16.39% From Current Price Level

$392 – Buyers – 1.5:1; -17.24% From Current Price Level

$388 – Buyers – 1.95:1; -18.08% From Current Price Level

$384 – Sellers – 1.56:1; -18.93% From Current Price Level

$380 – Sellers – 2.89:1; -19.77% From Current Price Level

$376 – Seller s- 1.89:1; -20.62% From Current Price Level

$372 – Sellers – 1.53:1; -21.46% From Current Price Level

$368 – Sellers – 1.33:1; -22.31% From Current Price Level

$364 – Sellers – 3:1; -23.15% From Current Price Level

$360 – Sellers – 1.86:1; -23.99% From Current Price Level

$356 – Buyers – 1.07:1; -24.84% From Current Price Level

$352 – Sellers – 2:0*; -25.68% From Current Price Level

$348 – Sellers – 3:0*; -26.53% From Current Price Level

$344 – NULL – 0:0*; -27.37% From Current Price Level

$340 – NULL – 0:0*; -28.22% From Current Price Level

Technical Analysis Of QQQ, The Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ)

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF climbed +0.95% last week, as investors found it slightly more favorable than SPY.

Their RSI is currently overbought at 70.96, while their MACD is bullish, but flattening out, which tends to signal that there will be a consolidation period in the near-term.

Volumes were -17.72% below average last week compared to the year prior (43,245,120 vs. 52,559,460), which signals a severe lack of confidence at these 52-week high price levels, particularly as the highest volume session came on Wednesday’s declining session.

Monday kicked off slightly higher than Friday’s close, with a slight upper shadow indicating that they may nudge higher on Tuesday, which occurred but on only ~80% of Monday’s volumes, signaling that not many more people were eager to jump into the pool.

This was confirmed on Wednesday where the week’s highest volume session occurred, opening near the open of Tuesday’s session, pushing higher to establish the new 52-week high level at $410.47, which then resulted in the rug being pulled out from under the session & declines that closed near the close of the prior Thursday’s session (below all other sessions in between & their shadows).

Conflicting energies were in the air on Thursday, as a dragonfly doji candle showed uncertainty, but a potential for a kick upward, while also forming a bearish harami pattern with the day prior.

While Thursday’s session had volume that was ~85% of Wednesday’s session, that still signals a yellow light.

Friday continued on the skating on thin ice theme, with a spinning top candle whose upper shadow did not break near the 52-week high set Wednesday & whose lower shadow dipped below the open of the day prior’s candle, sending the 10 day moving average into a flattening process, preparing it to curl over bearishly in the near-term & signaling the strength of support is weakening.

Due to Friday’s volumes being lowest of the week it also indicates that there was limited interest in carrying new risk into the holiday weekend.

Their Average True Range also has been signaling a weakening trend over the past week, which does not bode well for the near-term.

Market participants should have their eyes peeled for a bearish head & shoulders formation, particularly if the $390/share price level becomes tested in a consolidation, as the 50 DMA will become the nearest support level by that point in the event of decline.

Price Level:Volume Sentiment Analysis For QQQ, The Invesco QQQ Trust ETF

Much like SPY, QQQ sits in a similar position near its 52-week high & has limited buyer:seller data near these price levels for the past 1-2 years.

After a -5% decline there is a window of buyer dominated prices, but minus the sturdy 4:1 Buyers:Sellers price zone of $380-383.99/share things begin to get a bit muddier.

This would enter the consolidation range that would become the right shoulder mentioned prior.

If prices are walked down to the $341.67 support level (which we may well be based on the volume sentiments below & the current positioning of QQQ’s moving averages), then there is no support until $311.69/share.

There is one price zone in between those levels (similar to SPY above) that has standout Buyer:Seller levels over the last 1-2 years, the $324-327.99/share price zone.

Should this not hold up there are strong chances that the $307.31/share support level is tested, which may lead to a test of the $300/share level based on the Seller:Buyer volume of that price level.

While this would be a medium-term price movement most likely, it will be something worth keeping an eye on along the way down.

$412 – NULL – 0:0*; +0.89% From Current Price Level

$408 – NULL – 0:0*; -0.09% From Current Price Level – Current Price Box*

$404 – NULL – 0:0*; -1.07% From Current Price Level

$400 – NULL – 0:0*; -2.05% From Current Price Level – 10 Day Moving Average*

$396 – NULL – 0:0*; -3.03% From Current Price Level

$392 – NULL – 0:0*; -4.01% From Current Price Level

$388 – NULL – 0:0*; -4.99% From Current Price Level

$384 – Buyer s- 1.55:1; -5.97% From Current Price Level

$380 – Buyers – 4:1; -6.95% From Current Price Level

$376 – Buyers – 1.21:1; -7.93% From Current Price Level – 50 Day Moving Average

$372 – Sellers – 1.03:1; -8.91% From Current Price Level

$368 – Buyers – 1.1:1; -9.89% From Current Price Level

$364 – Buyers – 1.4:1; -10.87% From Current Price Level

$360 – Buyers – 1.82:1; -11.85% From Current Price Level

$356 – Sellers – 1.16:1; -12.83% From Current Price Level

$352 – Buyers – 1.40:1; -13.81% From Current Price Level – 200 Day Moving Average

$348 – Even – 1:1; -14.79% From Current Price Level

$344 – Sellers – 1.06:1; -15.76% From Current Price Level

$340 – Buyers – 1.92:1; -16.74% From Current Price Level

$336 – Sellers – 2.4:1; -17.72% From Current Price Level

$332 – Even – 1:1; -18.7% From Current Price Level

$328 – Sellers – 1.36:1; -19.68% From Current Price Level

$324 – Buyers – 2.24:1; -20.66% From Current Price Level

$320 – Buyers – 1.37:1; -21.64% From Current Price Level

$316 – Sellers – 1.46:1; -22.62 From Current Price Level

$312 – Sellers – 1.8:1; -23.6% From Current Price Level

$308 – Sellers – 1.15:1; -24.58% From Current Price Level

$304 – Buyers – 1.18:1; -25.56% From Current Price Level

$300 – Sellers – 1.62:1; 26.54% From Current Price Level

$296 – Buyers – 1.85:1; -27.52% From Current Price Level

$292 – Buyers – 1.64:1; -28.5% From Current Price Level

$288 – Sellers – 1.26:1; -29.48% From Current Price Level

$284 – Sellers – 2.22:1; -30.46% From Current Price Level

$280 – Buyers – 1.15:1; -31.44% From Current Price Level

$276 – Buyers – 1.06:1; -32.42% From Current Price Level

$272 – Sellers – 1.21:1; -33.4% From Current Price Level

$268 – Sellers – 1.61:1; -34.37% From Current Price Level

$264 – Buyers – 1.15:1; -35.35% From Current Price Level

$260 – Sellers – 3.6:1; -36.33% From Current Price Level

$256 – Sellers – 2.7:0*; -37.31% From Current Price Level

Technical Analysis Of IWM, The iShares Russell 2000 ETF

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF advanced +2.63% last week, as investors favored the small cap index over the other major indexes.

Their RSI is also currently overbought at 73.18, while their MACD is still bullish, but beginning to stretch out as if it is exhausting & preparing to roll over bearishly following a month & a half long advance.

Volumes were +50.54% above average last week compared tot he year prior (47,347,420 vs. 31,451,786), which is the aftershock of last week’s massive price jumps & high volume sessions of Wednesday & Thursday, as well as last Friday’s heavy volume profit taking day that followed.

Monday established a bearish harami that set up the squeeze that brought about the end of the week’s new 52-week high, as the day’s candle opened higher than Friday’s but closed lower for the session, with an upper shadow that tested near Friday’s open.

Tuesday’s session featured a wide-range real body higher, with slight upper & lower shadows on the second highest volume of the week, indicating that there was risk appetite, but that it was relatively confined to the open & closing prices & in between, not much higher or lower.

Wednesday set a new 52-week high for the time being before retreating like the other indexes into a day of steep declines on high volumes (highest of the week) as investors were eager to secure profits & take them off of the table.

Thursday completed a bearish harami pattern that tested much lower than it closed based on the lower shadow of the day’s candle, which broke below the $198/share price level on low volume.

Friday sent conflicting signals & clouds of uncertainty, with a gap up session whose lower shadow did not touch the $200/share price level, but whose real body was concentrated in the lower 50% of the day’s range, despite establishing a new 52-week high.

The low volume of the session also indicated that there was limited interest in carrying risk into the long weekend.

IWM’s Average True Range also has been declining, signaling that there is a weakening in the trend.

There is a support zone between the 10 DMA, $197.10 & $196.34/share price range which will be an area to keep an eye on in the coming days-to-weeks, particularly as their 50 & 200 day moving averages are primed to form a golden cross in the coming week.

Should prices drop below there, the window created last week between Wednesday & Thursday will become a problem area & likely lead to further declines.

Price Level:Volume Sentiment Analysis For IWM, The iShares Russell 2000 ETF

IWM is in a different camp than the other major indexes, as although they too are are 52-week highs & have limited data at these levels, they also have not ascended the same way as the others & have fluctuated more in ranges of the past year.

As they move differently than the other three ETFs noted in this article, it is imperative to consider that while reading their charts below.

The support zone of $194-197.99/share is currently jam packed with buyer sentiment, however, given that this contains two prior 52-week highs the sellers are underrepresented as there has been limited trading action at these price levels.

After a 7% drop from their current price level the buyer sentiment is much more diluted that it is at the higher price levels, which is where the shoulders of the prior head & shoulders patterns occurred.

Should it be tested, the $180-181.99/share price level will be interesting to see, given that it is currently even between buyers & sellers historically.

With how IWM tends to fluctuate in ranges & how their 52-week low was set only 2 months ago it will be interesting to see how buyers & sellers meet, as many of the price levels below do have limited/skewed data that is reflective of the oscillating nature of the ETF.

$204 – NULL – 0:0*; +1.25% From Current Price Level

$200 – NULL – 0:0*; -0.73% From Current Price Level – Current Price Box*

$198 – NULL – 0:0*; -1.73% From Current Price Level

$196 – Buyers – 2:1; -2.72% From Current Price Level

$194 – Buyers – 7.67:1; -3.71% From Current Price Level – 10 Day Moving Average*

$192 – Sellers – 2.8:1; -4.71% From Current Price Level

$190 – Buyers – 5:1; -5.7% From Current Price Level

$188 – Sellers – 1.27:1; -6.69% From Current Price Level

$186 – Buyers – 3.5:1; -7.68% From Current Price Level

$184 – Buyers – 1.32:1; -8.68% From Current Price Level

$182 – Buyers – 1.15:1; -9.67% From Current Price Level

$180 – Even – 1:1; -10.66% From Current Price Level

$178 – Buyers – 1.36:1; -11.65% From Current Price Level – 200 Day Moving Average*

$176 – Buyers – 1.86:1; -12.65% From Current Price Level – 50 Day Moving Average*

$174 – Buyers – 1.04:1; -13.64% From Current Price Level

$172 – Buyers – 1.30:1; -14.63% From Current Price Level

$170 – Sellers – 1.79:1; -15.62% From Current Price Level

$168 – Sellers – 1.4:1; -16.62% From Current Price Level

$166 – Sellers – 2:1; -17.61% From Current Price Level

$164 – Sellers – 1.83:1; -18.6% From Current Price Level

$162 – Sellers – 1.35:1; -19.59% From Current Price Level

$160 – Sellers – 1.75:1; -20.59% From Current Price Level

Technical Analysis Of DIA, The SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF

DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF gained +0.31% last week, faring the worst of the major indexes, as investors took profits on Wednesday & Thursday, while remaining otherwise rangebound all week.

Their RSI is also overbought at 74.82, while their MACD is currently bullish, but showing an impending bearish crossover in the coming week.

Volumes were +8.53% above average last week compared to the year prior (3,777,000 vs. 3,480,259), which indicates that people are still interested in the larger cap names, but are also on edge due to Wednesday’s declining session being the highest volume of the week (the chart also looks like someone giving the middle finger for the week if you look closely at the volumes, reading between the lines).

Monday kicked off the week on an uncertain note, with a spinning top that closed lower than it opened & whose real body remained mostly in the bottom 60% of the candle.

Tuesday saw a run higher with a wide-range candle that broke the $375/share mark & set a temporary new 52-week high, but there was limited volume confirming that this was a bullish signal.

Wednesday opened midway through Tuesday’s candle’s real body, broke higher to set a new 52-week high, but declined to below the close of the previous Thursday’s session & whose lower shadow dipped into the range the prior Wednesday’s session traded in, while on the highest volume of the week.

Thursday completed a bearish harami pattern with a long lower shadow that found support just above the 10 day moving average, but managed to close higher.

Friday provided even more indecision on a declining session that was a doji, as it’s upper shadow tested lower than the two highest sessions of the week, while its lower shadow dipped below all of the sessions except for Wednesday’s real bodies (and all but Thursday’s lower shadows as well).

DIA’s Average True Range is signaling that there is not a strong trend, but the line is flat, signaling that there will soon be a break to one direction or another.

Should there be a move to the downside & the 10 DMA’s support is broken, it will be worth watching to see where the 50 DMA is at, as currently the only support level between the 10 & 50 DMAs is $353.53/share.

There is also a watch for a bearish head & shoulders for DIA in the medium term, particularly as so many market participants have sought shelter there over the past 6-12 months.

Price Level:Volume Sentiment Analysis For DIA, The SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF

DIA’s price level:volume sentiment is also different than SPY & QQQ, but not for the same reasons as IWM.

They’ve run up so far from their nearest support levels that aren’t moving averages that there is a lot of room without much footing to catch on to.

The 10 day moving average currently is so close to the 52-week high that there is limited data on whether its buyer or seller dominated.

What’s concerning regarding DIA is that so many market participants have continued to pile into them while other indexes have taken losses, which gives cause for concern should there be some event that leads everyone for the exits.

In the event of a 10% correction to DIA, the levels below it for the next 2.25% down are still buyer dominated, but weakly, before the seller dominance steps in for an additional 4.25%, which is in the price range of their current 52-week high (set in March of 2023).

This will be something to keep an eye on in the event of decline, especially if there happens to be a 10%+ fall.

Given that DIA is also using 3-4 years worth of data, the lower range data discussed above is not as lacking in sample size compared to the other indexes mentioned prior, making it more meaningful in the long-run.

$380 – NULL – 0:0*; +1.66% From Current Price Level

$376 – NULL – 0:0*; +0.59% From Current Price Level

$372 – NULL – 0:0*; -0.48% From Current Price Level – Current Price Box & 10 Day Moving Average*

$368 – NULL – 0:0*; -1.55% From Current Price Level

$364 – NULL – 0:0*; -2.62% From Current Price Level

$360 – NULL – 0:0*; -3.69% From Current Price Level

$356 – NULL – 0:0*; -4.76% From Current Price Level

$352 – Buyers – 6:1; -5.83% From Current Price Level

$348 – Buyers – 1.27:1; -6.9% From Current Price Level – 50 Day Moving Average*

$344 – Sellers – 1.03:1; -7.97% From Current Price Level

$340 – Buyers – 2.08:1; -9.04% From Current Price Level

$336 – Buyers- 1.45:1; -10.11% From Current Price Level – 200 Day Moving Average*

$332 – Buyers – 1.03:1; -11.18% From Current Price Level

$328 – Buyers – 1.07:1; -12.25% From Current Price Level

$324 – Sellers – 1.38:1; -13.32% From Current Price Level

$320 – Sellers – 1.04:1; -14.39% From Current Price Level

$316 – Sellers – 1.42:1; -15.46% From Current Price Level

$312 – Sellers – 1.78:1; -16.53% From Current Price Level

$308 – Buyers – 1.93:1; -17.6% From Current Price Level

$304 – Sellers – 1.55:1; -18.67% From Current Price Level

$300 – Buyers – 1.2:1; -19.74% From Current Price Level

$296 – Buyers – 1.44:1; -20.81% From Current Price Level

$292 – Sellers – 1.47:1; -21.88% From Current Price Level

$288 – Even – 1:1; -22.95% From Current Price Level

$284 – Buyers – 1.06:1; -24.02% From Current Price Level

$280 – Sellers – 1.1:1; -25.09% From Current Price Level

$276 – Buyers – 1.4:1; -26.16% From Current Price Level

$272 – Buyers – 4:1; -27.23% From Current Price Level

$268 – Buyers – 4:1; -28.3% From Current Price Level

$264 – Sellers – 1.18:1; -29.37% From Current Price Level

$260 – Buyers – 1.21:1; -30.44% From Current Price Level

$256 – Buyers – 1.43:1; -31.51% From Current Price Level

$252 – Buyers – 1.71:1; -32.58% From Current Price Level

$248 – Buyer s- 1.56:1; -33.65% From Current Price Level

$244 – Buyers – 4.25:1; -34.72% From Current Price Level

$240 – Buyers – 3.2:1; -35.79% From Current Price Level

$236 – Sellers – 2.33:1; -36.86% From Current Price Level

$232 – Sellers – 4.5:1; -37.93% From Current Price Level

$228 – Buyers – 6:1; -39% From Current Price Level

$224 – Buyers – 1.17:1; -40.07% From Current Price Level

$220 – Buyers – 2.11:1; -41.14% From Current Price Level

$216 – Buyers – 1.22:1; -42.22% From Current Price Level

$212 – Sellers – 0.3:0**; -43.29% From Current Price Level

$208 – Buyers – 1:0*; -44.36% From Current Price Level

$204 – NULL – 0:0*; -45.43% From Current Price Level

$200 – NULL – 0:0*; -46.5% From Current Price Level

$198 – Buyers – 0.3:0*; -47.03% From Current Price Level

$196 – Sellers – 0.3:0*; -47.57% From Current Price Level

$194 – NULL – 0:0*; -48.1% From Current Price Level

$192 – NULL – 0:0*; -48.64% From Current Price Level

The Week Ahead

Monday will have no economic data to report as it is Christmas & markets will be closed.

Tuesday kicks the week off with S&P Case-Schiller Home Price Index (20 cities) dat at 9 am.

Wednesday has no data scheduled to be released.

Initial Jobless Claims, Advanced U.S. Trade Balance In Goods, Advanced Retail Inventories & Advanced Wholesale Inventories data are released Thursday at 8:30 am, followed by Pending Home Sales at 10 am.

Friday the week winds down with the Chicago Business Barometer data at 9:45 am & the bond market will be closing early.

See you back here next year!

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM, OR DIA & THIS IS NOT INVESTING ADVICE, PLEASE DO YOUR OWN DUE DILIGENCE ***

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF remained relatively flat last week, only adding +0.24%, as market participants remained cautious while awaiting this week’s CPI, PPI & Fed Interest Rate decision data this upcoming week.

Their RSI is currently overbought at 70.08, with a MACD that is bearish after crossing over last week, but it is relatively flat following the tightly rangebound price action of the past few weeks.

Volumes were -8.43% below average compared to the year prior (75,087,217 vs. 81,996,981), which does not cast a bullish picture, particularly as while Friday’s bullish volume led the week, Monday, Tuesday & Wednesday’s bearish volume sessions were higher than Thursday’s advancing session & not far below Friday’s volume.

Monday kicked the week off on a bearish note, although the upper shadow of the day’s candle tested much higher than the lower shadow tested lower & the session opened on the 10 day moving average, but was able to close higher than the open, despite being lower than the previous Friday’s session.

However, the spinning top candle does imply indecision.

Tuesday followed in Monday’s footsteps in terms of a spinning top with the same opening & closing attributes, however it did not test as high & was on lower volume, signaling more uncertainty among market participants.

Wednesday opened near the highs of Monday’s session, however it took a bearish turn & ultimately closed below the support of the 10 day moving average.

Thursday saw some bullish price action, but the uncertain theme continued as the session resulted in a spinning top & were on the lowest volume session of the week.

However, it should be noted that the 10 DMA was able to support the candle, with the lower shadow bouncing off of it & heading higher.

Friday opened above the 10 DMA & closed higher with a small upper shadow & set a new 52-week high, which will be an area to watch going into next week.

The 10 DMA will also be important to watch, as it has become more rounded at the top which will likely make it weaker as a support level & it will become the highest support level in the near future.

Their Average True Range has remained flat since late November in the lower end of their chart, as there has been limited volatility with the majority of days resulting in limited movement upwards or downwards.

It should also be noted that currently the price level for SPY has historically been dominated by sellers, which although is to be expected as it is near a price extreme, will make watching their price levels in relation to the chart below important in the coming weeks.

If there are further advances it will shed insight into how much further it will run & if there are declines it will highlight the strength of the support levels below the price.

SPY has support at the $457.82 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2:0*), $456.60 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2:0*), $452.08 (Volume Sentiment: Even, 1:1) & $438.14/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.21:1) price levels, with no resistance levels from the past year as they are currently at a new 52-week high.

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF improved +0.57% over the past week, faring second best of the major indexes after a having the worst week of the bunch the week prior.

Their RSI is trending towards overbought conditions & currently sits at 65.6, while the MACD is bearish but has recently flattened after last week’s results.

Volumes were -14.04% below average last week compared to the year prior (45,461,933 vs. 52,885,137), signaling severe hesitancy by traders & investors.

Monday’s volumes on the declining session were the highest of the week, with Tuesday’s advancing session having the second lowest volumes (only to Wednesday’s declining session).

Monday’s candle was a dragonfly doji, which set the stage for a slight upwards movement for the rest of the week, but also signaled that there would be uncertainty among market participants.

Thursday’s advancing session had the highest volume of the week, however when you break down the day’s candlestick the upper shadow is the smallest, the day’s open occurred at the 10 day moving average & while it closed higher, it did test the support of the 10 DMA by dipping below it & going over halfway down the wide-range bar of Wednesday’s bearish session.

That 10 day moving average will be something to keep an eye on in the near future, as over the past week it has spent a fair amount of time serving as the support & resistance in a relatively tight price range, which will eventually exhaust when there hasn’t been enough bullish action with it acting as support.

Their Average True Range does not indicate there has bee much volatility recently, but given how their past 14 sessions have traded over a tight price range with limited movements to the upside & downside this makes sense & is beginning to look concerning & foreboding of something on the horizon.

QQQ has support at the $388.92 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $387.42 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.75:1), $380.28 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 6:1) & $373.74/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.1:1) price levels, with resistance at the $394.14/share (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price level, which is their 52-week high which was set last week.

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF had the strongest week of the major indexes, advancing +1.02%.

Their RSI is trending towards overbought levels at 66.92, with a bullish MACD that is beginning to show signs of fading enthusiasm after a strong past few weeks.

Volumes were +41.51% above average last week compared to the year prior (43,038,183 vs. 30,412,676), which paints an interesting picture given that Monday’s session was the strongest volume of the week (but hardly compared with Friday before it) on a wide-range session by prices with limited shadows on the upper/lower.

Tuesday opened mid-way up Monday’s price range, tested lower than Monday’s total range, but closed within the real-body of Monday’s candle, still for a loss (bearish sentiment) on the second lowest volume of the week.

Wednesday’s volumes are where things get interesting, as the day opened higher than Tuesday’s close, tested the $187.96 resistance level (or $187-188 resistance zone) but were only able to reach $187.92, before ultimately closing lower than the day prior & leaving an upper shadow that makes up over half of the day’s candle.

This did not show much confidence in the retest of the resistance level noted above, which despite the next two session’s moving higher, were untested again, with Friday’s candle having a large upper shadow compared to the day’s open/close range.

Their Average True Range will be an important thing to watch in the coming weeks, as the sessions with the lowest price volatility of the 14 day calculation period will all be removed & replaced by Wednesday, implying an uptick in volatility may be on the horizon.

Their 10 day moving average will need to have a close eye kept on it this upcoming week, as if prices fall beneath it it will join many other resistance points right above their current price levels.

IWM has support at the $184.57 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.26:1), $182.79 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.55:1), $180.76 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.13:1) & $179.88 /share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.05:1) price levels, with resistance at the $186.87 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 4.62:1), $187.92 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 4.62:1), $187.92 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 4.62) & $188.36/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.75:1) price levels.

DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF remained near flat last week, inching forward +0.02% as investors were not readily eager to jump into the larger cap names.

Their RSI is overbought at 77.53 & has been above the overbought 70-level since mid-November, with a MACD that has curled over set to make a bearish MACD crossover in the coming week.

Volumes were +29.24% above average last week compared to the year prior (4,539,983 vs. 3,512,913), which is noteworthy as it shows a lot of profit taking following a few weeks of advances, while the week’s price range itself did not make much of an attempt to advance higher.

Monday kicked the week off on a bearish note, although the session closed higher than it opened, but it still declined from the Friday prior’s close.

Tuesday’s session was interesting, as they had the second highest volume day of the week on a declining day, but resulted in a dragonfly doji, signaling both uncertainty, but that there may be a slight advance on the horizon.

Wednesday had the highest volume of the week on a wide-range candle whose upper shadow tested higher, but closed much lower than the open & had a slight lower shadow indicating that there was still some sentiment to test lower.

Thursday & Friday had the lowest volumes of the week, despite being the only advancing sessions, with Thursday resulting in a doji whose open & close were above the top half of the candle & Friday’s upper shadow hitting a new 52-week high but on the weakest volume of the week, which does not signal confidence in a move higher.

Their Average True Range is signaling a severe lack of volatility, which when you look at other times in the past year where it has dipped near this low there has been a consolidation period on the horizon.

Their 10 day moving average will be a point of interest to watch in the coming week, as it will need to provide the support to keep pushing DIA higher, as their other indicators & oscillators signal that they’re due to take a breather & cool off.

DIA has support at the $359.59 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $354.32 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1:0*), $349.45 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.17:1) & $343.16/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.41:1) price levels, with no resistance in the past year as it closed the week out on a new 52-week high.

The Week Ahead

Monday starts the week off on a quiet note, with no major market data announcements.

Casey’s General, FuelCell Energy & Oracle are all scheduled to report earnings on Monday.

Consumer Price Index, Core CPI, CPI Y-o-Y & Core CPI Y-o-Y are all due at 8:30 am on Tuesday, followed by the monthly U.S. Federal Budget at 2pm.

Tuesday is relatively quiet on the earnings report front.

Wednesday brings us Producer Price Index, Core PPI, PPI Y-o-Y & Core PPI Y-o-Y data at 8:30 am, with the FOMC Interest-Rate Decision announced at 2 pm & Fed Chairman Powell’s Press Conference at 2:30 pm.

Adobe, ABM Industries, Cognyte Software, Nordson, Photronics & REV Group report earnings on Wednesday.

Thursday morning is a busy one, with Initial Jobless Claims, Import Price Index, Import Price Index minus Fuel, U.S. Retail Sales & Retail Sales minus Autos data coming in at 8:30 am, followed by Business Inventories data at 10 am.

Costco Wholesale, Jabil & Lennar are all releasing earnings reports on Thursday.

Empire State Manufacturing Survey data is released Friday morning at 8:30 am, followed by Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization data at 9:15 am.

Darden Restaurants is scheduled to report earnings on Friday.

See you back here next week!

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF gained +0.83% last week, as investors favored the Russell 2000 small caps & Dow Jones Industrial Average.

Their RSI is overbought at 74.12, with a MACD that is still bullish, but hanging on for life & trying to advance into more overbought territory, but looks set to roll over bearishly in the coming days.

Volumes were -23.93% below average last week compared to the year prior (62,392,500 vs. 82,018,080), with Thursday & Friday being the highest volume days of the week & Friday’s volume levels did not surpass last week’s high of volume, showing hesitancy on the part of market participants.

While volumes advanced day-over-day throughout the week, this is a signal of uncertainty, despite the recent 52-week high & not to be viewed as increasing confidence during the week.

Monday the week kicked off with a declining session with a doji candle, kicking the week off on the theme of caution.

Tuesday’s spinning top candle’s real body was concentrated in the lower range of the over candle, signaling that downside movement was imminent & that there was reluctance to edge higher.

Wednesday showed signs of optimism, with the open being above the day prior’s close & an upper shadow that tried to break higher, but profits were taken throughout the day’s session, pushing the prices lower until the day closed out lower than Tuesday’s session & with a slight lower shadow dipping into Tuesday’s candle’s real body.

Another sign of uncertainty emerged on Thursday, where the session opened higher than the day prior’s close, tested lower & dipped beneath the 10 day moving average’s support, but ultimately recovered as investors piled in & resulted in a spinning top with the real body of the candle concentrated on the high end of the day’s session, with a small upper shadow.

Friday resembled a last minute specialist breakout to the upside, testing the lower range of the candle’s shadow against the support of the 10 day moving average which held strong, but the upper shadow above the bullish close was roughly the same size as the lower shadow, which is not indicative of strength & signals further cautious outlook on the part of market participants.

Their Average True Range does not indicate a strong trend is in place, but has begun to flatten out after a half month of decline, signaling that we are likely to see a pivotal moment in the coming week; whether the new trend is up or down.

SPY has support at the $457.82 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2:0*), $454.82 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Even, 1:1), $452.08 (Volume Sentiment: Even, 1:1) & $438.14/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.21:1) price levels, with no resistance levels in the past year as the price is currently at a new 52-week high (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*).

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF has the weakest week of the major indexes, nudging forward +0.11%, basically treading water.

Their RSI is currently just underneath the overbought level & sits at 67.66, while their MACD is primed to cross over bearishly & looks set to continue downwards into more bearish territory into the coming week.

Volumes were -33.47% below average last week compared to the year prior (36,239,367 vs. 52,884,565), which is a cause for concern given that Thursday’s declining session was the highest volume day of the week.

Friday’s advancing volume was the second highest day of the week in terms of volume, however it was narrowly higher than the declining volume of Wednesday’s session & neither broke above any of last week’s sessions’ volumes.

This signals that there is a skeptical outlook on the NASDAQ currently, which matches the narrative of the MACD, painting a picture of brief consolidation on the horizon at best in the near-term.

There also looks to be a potential bearish head & shoulders formation forming, showing five & a half months of build up, which will be something to keep an eye on heading into Q2-3 2024.

Their Average True Range is also flat, like SPY’s, signaling that there will likely be some movement to establish a new, stronger trend that begins this week, with QQQ’s looking strongly to the downside.

There is strong Buyers sentiment currently supporting QQQ, however, it should be noted that sentiment readings are always stronger at the extremes such as a 52-week high or low, as there has been limited price action at said levels.

There is currently -7.68% of cushion for QQQ’s share price before it reaches a seller dominated price level, with exception to the $376-379.99/share price box, which is currently 1:1 Buyers:Sellers.

QQQ has support at the $389.28 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $387.42 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.75:1), $380.28 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 6:1) & $373.74/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.1:1) price levels, with resistance only at the $394.14/share (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price level, as they are currently declining from their new 52-week high set last Thursday.

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF had the strongest week of the major indexes, advancing +3.11%, with Friday’s candle nearly jumping out of its shoes in terms of daily price range & closing well above the golden cross that was being created by the 10 & 200 day moving averages that day.

Their RSI is trending aggressively towards overbought after Friday’s wide range session & currently sits at 67.8, while their MACD is continuing higher due to Friday’s session after looking like it was set to lose steam & roll over bearishly last week.

Volumes were +11.49% above average compared to the year prior last week (33,473,717 vs. 30,023,244), but it should be noted that this is mostly on account of Friday’s session, whose volume eclipsed the volumes of the rest of the week & all but 4 sessions’ volumes throughout the year prior.

This does not necessarily indicate that there is strength in the move, and could likely have been market participants pivoting into small caps now before”the January effect” lifts small caps higher in the first half of next month.

Looking at how even the volumes of the early week declining days & then Wednesday & Thursday’s volumes also does not tell a story of strength & should be met with skepticism.

Monday’s session kicked the week off on an uncertain note for small cap names, with a slightly bearish day resulting in a spinning top candle.

Tuesday followed suit, although there was a much wider range on the candle’s real body, but the 10 day moving average was able to hold support & keep the declines from going too low.

Wednesday saw the power of the 200 day moving average’s resistance, as prices briefly fluctuated above it & tested higher for a bit, but the candle’s real body opened & closed below the 200 DMA.

It is also worth noting that they closed lower than they opened, despite finishing the day bullishly, which should be taken as a bearish situation.

Thursday’s candle was also a filled in black candle & a spinning top, that despite opening & closing above the support of the 200 DMA did not signal much confidence was in the air.

Friday was a very wide range day that exposed a few interesting bits of information from the market.

The day opened somewhere between the 10 DMA’s support & 200 DMA’s resistance & ultimately closed +2.92% higher for the day, however, the lower shadow of the day’s candle should be noted, as there was a bit of test to the downside that shouldn’t be ignored.

Their ATR is signaling that there is a stronger trend in play now after November did feature a steady advance, however the volatility of Friday’s session that has been added into the calculation does distort the otherwise slow advances of the month prior to appear like a stronger trend is in play than really is.

Prices are still in a seller dominated price level 1.26:1 & while there are buyers historically at a rate of 1.55:1 in the $182-183.99/share zone, the sellers resume control again until a ~3% drop in price.

The next 4 price zones are buyers dominated, before sellers lead the way back down to the 52-week low, which was hit in October.

It is worth noting that just as mentioned regarding stocks at/near their 52-week high, the volume readings are more extreme to one side or another when we reach price extremes, due to the lack of time spent in these price ranges.

IWM has support at the $184.57 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.26:1), $180.76 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.13:1), $179.88 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.05:1) & $179.49/share (200 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.05:1) price levels, with resistance at the $186.29 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 4.62:1), $186.87 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 4.62:1), $187.96 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 4.62:1) & $188.38/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.75:1) price levels.

DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF ended the week second best of the major indexes, +2.61%, trailing on the Russell 2000, but still managing to close the week on a new 52-week high.

Their RSI is heavily overbought at 81.51, with a MACD that is still bullish, but looks to be beginning to lose steam & become ready to roll over for a bearish crossover in the coming sessions.

Volumes were -8.7% below average last week compared to the year prior (3,203,100 vs. 3,508,327), signaling a lack of enthusiasm & calling question to the strength of the gains that were achieved on Thursday & Friday.

Monday the week started off on unstable footing, resulting in a declining session with a spinning top candle, marking uncertainty among market participants.

Tuesday was another spinning top session, that despite nudging up to close bullishly, did not paint a picture of good things to come as the candle’s real body was concentrated on the lower end of the candle.

Wednesday the uncertainty continued, with prices closing lower than they opened, despite the day being bullish, which continued the story of caution, especially given how low the volumes were during the first three sessions of the week.

This lead up to the largely bullish days at the end of the week should’ve raised eyebrows of skepticism, particularly the gap up on Thursday that occurred on relatively average volumes.

Friday’s move higher should also be viewed with a critical eye, as while it did set a new 52-week high on strong volume, it stretched out oscillators such as the RSI to their highest overbought reading of the year.

Volume was strong (top 10 days by volume of the year), but this should be viewed as a last chance piling in for profits, which will be interesting to see the strength of in the coming week.

Another thing to keep an eye on this week will be the strength of support provided by the 10 day moving average, which is currently the closest support level to their price.

Given that we are at a price extreme the volume sentiment levels are don’t paint much of a picture as to what the strength of this support level will be, as the current ratio for the $352-355.99/share box is 1:0*.

Their Average True Range was indicating a more steady trend in November after the steady ascent from the mid-month gap up, but the violent movement of the last two days has disrupted that & now their ATR is looking flat, much like SPY & QQQ’s, indicating that a reversal in trend, possibly violent, is on the horizon.

They have enjoyed strength for the last couple of months, but if there is a proper correction there will be cause for concern, as after a -9.65% decline the next -5%+ is all seller dominated, minus the $308-311.99/share zone which historically has 1.76:1 Buyers:Sellers & the $288-291.99/share price zone, which has 1.38:1 Buyers:Sellers.

DIA has support at the $354.33 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1:0*), $354.32 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1:0*), $349.45 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.17:1) & $343.16/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.42:1) price levels, with no resistance levels as Friday’s session marked a new 52-week high for DIA (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*).

The Week Ahead

Monday’s earnings reports include GitLab & Science Applications.

Factory Orders data is reported on Monday at 10 am.

AutoZone,  AeroVironment,  America’s Car-Mart,  Asana,  Box,  Core & Main,  Dave & Buster’s,  Ferguson,  G-III Apparel,  MongoDB,  Phreesia,  SentinelOne,  Signet Jewelers,  Stitch Fix,  Toll Brothers & Yext are all scheduled to report earnings on Tuesday. 

Tuesday features S&P U.S. Services PMI data at 9:45 am, as well as ISM Services data & Job Openings data at 10 am.

Wednesday’s earnings reports feature Brown-Forman,  C3.ai,  Campbell Soup,  ChargePoint,  Chewy,  Descartes,  GameStop,  Greif,  Ollie’s Bargain Outlet,  Oxford Industries,  Semtech,  Sportsman’s Warehouse,  Thor Industries,  United Natural Foods,  Veeva Systems & Verint Systems. 

ADP Employment data comes in Wednesday at 8:15 am, followed by U.S. Productivity (revision) & U.S. Trade Deficit data at 8:30 am.

Thursday’s earnings calls include Broadcom,  Lululemon Athletica,  BRP,  Ciena,  Cooper,  DocuSign,  Dollar General,  GMS,  Smith & Wesson Brands &  Vail Resorts.

Initial Jobless Claims reports are released Thursday at 8:30 am, with Wholesale Inventories data at 10 am & Consumer Credit data at 3pm.

Hello Group is scheduled to report earnings on Friday.

U.S. Employment Report, U.S. Unemployment Rate, U.S. Hourly Wages & U.S. Hourly Wages Y-o-Y data are released at 8:30 am & Consumer Sentiment (prelim) data comes out at 10 am Friday

See you back here next week!

Markets have reached an interesting point again recently, with the S&P 500 & Dow Jones Industrial Average flirting with a new 52-week high, the NASDAQ breaking their most recent 52-week high & the Russell 2000 recently recovered after setting a new 52-week low.

However, volumes & oscillators are not currently convincing of strength in the markets, making it important to take a step back & see how recent history may impact the near-future.

Read our breakdown of the markets’ recent technicals, as well as an updated price level:volume sentiment reading, which breaks down the volume levels of the past 1-4 years for each index on a price percentage basis.

Technical Analysis & Price Level:Volume Sentiment Analysis For The S&P 500 (SPY)

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF added +1.13% last week, faring the second worst of the indexes, second only to the NASDAQ.

Their RSI is overbought at 71.88 & their MACD is showing signals of losing steam & an impending bearish crossover.

Volumes were a cause for concern last week, falling -27.32% below average compared to the year prior (59,685,350 vs. 82,125,986) & really signaling uncertainty in the near-term market environment.

Monday’s wide-range candle & advancing session also looks weaker than it first appeared, given that it was lower than 3 of the 5 sessions of the week before, neck & neck with 1 of the 5 & only higher than the prior Monday’s session, which was a declining day.

Tuesday’s candle created a bearish harami pattern, but as it was a dragonfly doji created the set up for Wednesday & Friday’s slight increases.

Wednesday & Friday both resulted in dojis, however they were tied tightly to the range created by the upper shadow of Monday’s session’s candle.

Also bearish, they closed lower than they opened, despite opening slightly up each day, signaling that risk appetite is weak as we sit near 52-week highs.

Wednesday’s session tried to push a bit higher based on the upper shadow, but it appears that there is limited-to-no interest in surpassing the current 52-week high currently.

SPY’s Average True Range is also signaling that there is not much strength to the current price trend & indicates that there will be a cool-down period in the near-future, pending no market catalyst appear from earnings reports or data reported next week.

SPY does have more buyers than sellers at every price level between here & ~-7%, but if the $448 price level doesn’t hold up, the buyer-dominant sentiment weakens dramatically before giving way to seller dominated zones that have much more strength in terms of Sellers:Buyers.

There looks to be an additional 5-6% of declines that could come about if those buyer dominated zones give way, as the next strong level of buyers that is not nestled into the seller blocks is -13% from the current price.

Price Level:Volume Sentiment Analysis For SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF

$468 – NULL – 0:0*; +2.79% From Current Price Level

$464 – Buyers – 1.44:1; +1.91% From Current Price Level

$460 – Sellers – 1:0*; +1.03% From Current Price Level

$456 – Buyers – 2:0*; +0.15% From Current Price Level

$452 – Even – 1:1; -0.72% From Current Price Level – Current Price Box*

$448 – Buyers – 1.82:1; -1.6% From Current Price Level – 10 Day Moving Average*

$444 – Buyers – 1.03:1; -2.48% From Current Price Level

$440 – Buyers – 1.06:1; -3.36% From Current Price Level

$436 – Buyers – 1.21:1; -4.24% From Current Price Level

$432 – Buyers – 1.09:1; -5.12% From Current Price Level – 50 Day Moving Average*

$428 – Buyers – 1.16:1; -6% From Current Price Level

$424 – Sellers – 1.83:1; -6.87% From Current Price Level – 200 Day Moving Average*

$420 – Sellers – 2.65:1; -7.75% From Current Price Level

$416 – Buyers – 1.98:1; -8.63% From Current Price Level

$412 – Sellers – 1.04:1; -9.51% From Current Price Level

$408 – Buyers – 1.17:1; -10.39% From Current Price Level

$404 – Sellers – 1.15:1; -11.27% From Current Price Level

$400 – Sellers – 1.93:1; -12.15% From Current Price Level

$396 – Buyers – 2.65:1; -13.02% From Current Price Level

$392 – Buyers – 1.79:1; -13.9% From Current Price Level

$388 – Buyers – 1.03:1; -14.78% From Current Price Level

$384 – Sellers – 1.84:1; -15.66% From Current Price Level

$380 – Sellers- 2.38:1; -16.54% From Current Price Level

$376 – Sellers – 1.63:1; -17.42% From Current Price Level

$372 – Sellers – 1.23:1; -18.3% From Current Price Level

$368 – Sellers – 1.78:1; -19.17% From Current Price Level

$364 – Sellers – 1.86:1; -20.05% From Current Price Level

$360 -Buyers – 1.53:1; -20.93% From Current Price Level

$356 – Sellers – 4.89:1; -21.81% From Current Price Level

$352 – Sellers – 2.1:0*; -22.69% From Current Price Level

$348 – Sellers – 1.8:0*; -23.57% From Current Price Level

Technical Analysis & Price Level:Volume Sentiment Analysis For The NASDAQ (QQQ)

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF has the worst week of all the major indexes, gaining only +0.92% for the week.

Their RSI is fluttering around the overbought level & sits currently at 69.03, but their MACD is aggressively barreling towards a bearish crossover in the coming sessions.

Volumes were also notably weak for QQQ this week, falling -24.6% below average compared to the year prior (39,920,300 vs. 52,941,855) as market participants got hesitant once reaching a new 52-week high & began to pump the brakes.

Monday opened strong, but the session’s volume was weaker than every session of the week prior’s & Tuesday’s bearish volume was neck & neck with Monday’s levels, as profits were eagerly taken.

Tuesday’s candle also formed a bearish harami with a dragonfly doji, similar to SPY’s set up, except QQQ was able to crack a new 52-week high on Wednesday’s spinning top session.

Given that Wednesday’s real body resides on the lower end of the day’s range & has a long upper shadow, it is safe to say that there is not much faith in strength at these price levels.

Friday’s doji candle will be of interest to watch into next week though, as it did not decline deep into Tuesday’s candle’s lower shadow, but the 10 day moving average is fast approaching & investors will want to know whether this will function as support or resistance in the near-term.

QQQ’s ATR also does not signal that this trend is particularly strong & implies that there is a cool-off/consolidation move in the making for the near-term.

From their current price, QQQ has no seller dominated price zones until a decline of ~7.5%, which may be regarded as a signal of strength, but note that beyond the nearest two supporting price levels with buyer sentiment the enthusiasm historically has waned & seller dominated zones account for the next 10%+ of declines from there, which should be cause for concern.

Once prices decline beyond $335.99/share there will be a lot of selling pressure historically, with no support until $312.31 which will be another thing to keep an eye on.

There is a good support zone between $303.99-311.99/share though, which would be a relief given that at that point prices would have declined by ~20%.

Price Level:Volume Sentiment Analysis For QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ)

$388 – NULL – 0:0*; -0.39% From Current Price Level – Current Price Box*

$384 – Buyers – 1.75:1; -1.41% From Current Price Level – 10 Day Moving Average*

$380 – Buyers – 6:1; -2.44% From Current Price Level

$376 – Even – 1:1; -3.47% From Current Price Level

$372 – Buyers – 1.1:1; -4.5% From Current Price Level

$368 – Buyers – 1.24:1; -5.52% From Current Price Level

$364 – Buyers – 1.11:1; -6.55% From Current Price Level – 50 Day Moving Average*

$360 – Buyers – 1.02:1; -7.58% From Current Price Level

$356 – Sellers – 1.24:1; -8.6% From Current Price Level

$352 – Buyers – 1.52:1; -9.63% From Current Price Level

$348 – Sellers – 1.3:1; -10.66% From Current Price Level

$344 – Sellers – 1.38:1; -11.68% From Current Price Level – 200 Day Moving Average*

$340 – Buyers – 2.11:1; -12.71% From Current Price Level

$336 – Buyers – 1.25:1; -13.74% From Current Price Level

$332 – Sellers – 6.13:1; -14.76% From Current Price Level

$328 – Sellers – 1.05:1; -15.79% From Current Price Level

$324 – Buyers – 2.6:1; -16.82% From Current Price Level

$320 – Sellers – 1.20:1; -17.85% From Current Price Level

$316 – Sellers – 1.97:1; -18.87% From Current Price Level

$312 – Sellers – 1.67:1; -19.9% From Current Price Level

$308 – Buyers – 1.19:1; -20.93% From Current Price Level

$304 – Buyers – 1.04:1; -21.95% From Current Price Level

$300 – Sellers – 2.2:1; -22.98% From Current Price Level

$296 – Buyers – 2.33:1; -24.01% From Current Price Level

$292 – Buyers – 1.72:1; -25.03% From Current Price Level

$288 – Sellers – 2.02:1; -26.06% From Current Price Level

$284 – Sellers – 1.59:1; -27.09% From Current Price Level

$280 – Buyers – 1.03:1; -28.11% From Current Price Level

$276 – Sellers – 1.06:1; -29.14% From Current Price Level

$272 – Sellers – 1.77:1; -30.17% From Current Price Level

$268 – Sellers – 1.32:1; -31.2% From Current Price Level

$264 – Buyers – 1.33:1; -32.22% From Current Price Level

$260 – Sellers – 4.4:1; -33.25% From Current Price Level

$256 – Sellers – 2.2:0*; -34.28% From Current Price Level

Technical Analysis & Price Level:Volume Sentiment Analysis For The Russell 2000 (IWM)

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF had the strongest week of all the major indexes last week, advancing +1.96% for the week.

Their RSI is trending towards overbought after the gap up the week prior & sits at 60.38, while the MACD is beginning to show signs of exhaustion & looks like it may curl over bearishly in the coming days.

Volumes were +6.75% above average compared to the year prior (31,657,550 vs. 29,656,354), most likely attributed to people following the high volume trades of last week trying to make some last second profits.

IWM’s chart tells a different story than the previous two that we’ve reviewed, as they have recently bounced off of a 52-week low & been in recovery.

Monday had the third highest volume of the short week & prices made advances, but Tuesday’s declining session of profit taking was the highest volume session of the week, signaling a lack of strength at these price levels.

Wednesday featured a doji going into the holiday Thursday, where market participants sat unsure about which way to go next.

Friday’s candle is one of interest though, as we begin to see some of the downwards pressure that the 200 DMA is applying to IWM’s price & will be something to continue watching into next week to see if small caps can muster up the performance to break through the 200 DMA’s resistance.

Their ATR is also not indicating that there is much strength in the more recent price movements in terms of establishing a new trend.

IWM’s price level:volume sentiment shows that there is some support for ~5% from here in terms of the levels being buyer dominated over the past 1-2 years, but after that it is a seller dominated zone all the way through their 52-week low.

IWM’s 50 day moving average will be something to also keep an eye on, as it will continue to trend higher & is already the last support level that is buyer dominated before we enter that seller-dominated elevator down.

Price Level:Volume Sentiment For IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF

$198 – NULL – 0:0*; +10.41% From Current Price Level

$196 – Buyers – 5:1; +9.3% From Current Price Level

$194 – Buyers – 1.36:1; +8.18% From Current Price Level

$192 – Buyers – 1.10:1; +7.07% From Current Price Level

$190 – Sellers – 1.11:1; +5.95% From Current Price Level

$188 – Buyers – 2.75:1; +4.83% From Current Price Level

$186 – Buyers – 4.62:1; +3.72% From Current Price Level

$184 – Sellers – 1.26:1; +2.6% From Current Price Level

$182 – Buyers – 1.55:1; +1.49% From Current Price Level

$180 – Sellers – 1.13:1; +0.37% From Current Price Level

$178 – Buyers – 1.05:1; -0.74% From Current Price Level – Current Price Box & 200 Day Moving Average**

$176 – Buyers – 1.67:1; -1.86% From Current Price Level – 10 Day Moving Average*

$174 – Buyers – 1.2:1; -2.97% From Current Price Level

$172 – Buyers – 1.19:1; -4.09% From Current Price Level

$170 – Sellers – 2:1; -5.2% From Current Price Level

$168 – Sellers – 2:1; -6.32% From Current Price Level

$166 – Sellers – 1.36:1; -7.43% From Current Price Level

$164 – Sellers – 1.08:1; -8.55% From Current Price Level

$162 – Sellers – 2.58:1; -9.66% From Current Price Level

$160 – Sellers – 0.6:0*; -10.78% From Current Price Level

Technical Analysis & Price Level:Volume Sentiment Analysis For The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA)

DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF had the second best week of the major indexes, climbing +1.28% over the week.

Their RSI is overbought at 73.41 & their MACD is signaling overextension & that there is a near-term consolidation period on the horizon.

Volumes were noteworthy though, falling -27.03% below average compared to the year prior (2,565,383 vs. 3,515,596), which does not make the week’s gains anything of note.

DIA is approaching their current 52-week high, but based on the last 2 sessions’ candles will not have an easy time breaking it.

Monday’s session looks like the other three indexes, non-noteworthy volume on a wide range session, Tuesday’s candle formed a bearish engulfing pattern on Monday’s, but its higher positioning in the day prior’s range did set up the slight gains of the next two sessions for the large caps.

However, Wednesday & Thursday’s spinning tops are signaling even more indecision, particularly as the volumes have been weak.

Note too that Friday’s open is at the extension of Thursday’s upper shadow that was on a relatively tall upper shadow, which is more indicative of a pump into weakness than of actual strength.

Like all of the other indexes, their ATR is also not supporting a narrative of strength around recent price movements & does flash a signal of near-term caution.

Their 10 DMA is also going to be something to keep a close eye on, as it is currently moving upwards still, while being the second highest level of support from the current price.

Once it becomes the highest support level it will be worth noting whether it acts as support or gets broken through, as then only the $349.45/share will be support before prices enter the window from the gap that we wrote about last week.

Buyers currently are in the drivers seat for the next ~7% downwards, however should there not be enough support there that 7% decline can very easily become 12%+ in losses based on the seller dominated price zones that sit just below the buyer blocks.

Price Level:Volume Sentiment For DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF

$356 – NULL – 0:0*; +0.62% From Current Price Level

$352 – Buyers – 1:0*; -0.51% From Current Price Level – Current Price Box*

$348 – Sellers – 1.17:1; -1.64% From Current Price Level – 10 Day Moving Average*

$344 – Buyers – 1.14:1; -2.77% From Current Price Level

$340 – Buyers – 1.41:1; -3.9% From Current Price Level

$336 – Buyers, 1.46:1; -5.03% From Current Price Level – 50 & 200 Day Moving Averages**

$332 – Sellers – 1.01:1; -6.16% From Current Price Level

$328 – Buyers – 1.17:1; -7.29% From Current Price Level

$324 – Sellers – 1.39:1; -8.42% From Current Price Level

$320 – Sellers – 1.29:1; -9.55% From Current Price Level

$316 – Sellers – 1.27:1; -10.68% From Current Price Level

$312 – Sellers – 1.79:1; -11.81% From Current Price Level

$308 – Buyers – 1.77:1; -12.95% From Current Price Level

$304 – Sellers – 1.1:1; -14.08% From Current Price Level

$300 – Sellers – 1.15:1; -15.21% From Current Price Level

$296 – Sellers – 1.09:1; -16.34% From Current Price Level

$292 – Sellers – 1.11:1; -17.47% From Current Price Level

$288 – Buyers – 1.38:1; -18.6% From Current Price Level

$284 – Sellers – 1.22:1; -19.73% From Current Price Level

$280 – Buyers – 1.6:1; -20.86% From Current Price Level

$276 – Buyers – 4:1; -21.99% From Current Price Level

$272 – Buyers – 6:1; -23.12% From Current Price Level

$268 – Buyers – 2.33:1; -24.25% From Current Price Level

$264 – Buyers – 2.33:1; -25.38% From Current Price Level

$260 – Even – 1:1; -26.51% From Current Price Level

$256 – Even – 1:1; -27.64% From Current Price Level

$252 – Buyers – 6:1; -28.77% From Current Price Level

$248 – Sellers – 0.6:0*; -29.9% From Current Price Level

$244 – NULL – 0:0*; -31.03% From Current Price Level

The Week Ahead

Monday kicks the week off with New Homes Sales data at 10 am.

Cerence & Zscaler also are due to report earnings on Monday.

S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index (20 Cities) data is released Tuesday at 9 am, followed by Consumer Confidence, Fed Governor Christopher Waller speaking & Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee speaking at 10 am, before Fed Governor Michelle Bowman speaks at 10:45 & the day winds down with Fed Governor Michael Barr speaking at 1:50 pm & 3:30 pm.

Tuesday’s earnings calls include AZEK, Bank of Montreal, CrowdStrike, Hewlett Packard Enterprise, Intuit, Leslie’s, NetApp, Pinduoduo, Splunk & Workday.

Wednesday delivers GDP (first revision), Advanced U.S. Trade Balance in Goods, Advanced Retail Inventories & Advanced Wholesale Inventories data at 8:30 am, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester speaking at 1:45 pm & the Fed Beige Book at 2 pm.

Dollar Tree, Salesforce, Arrowhead, Bilibili, Credo Technology Group, Donaldson, Farfetch, Five Below, Foot Locker, Hormel Foods, La-Z-Boy, Nutanix, Okta, Patterson Companies, Petco Health and Wellness, PVH, Snowflake, Synopsys, Vestis, Victoria’s Secret & Zuora are all scheduled to report earnings on Wednesday. 

8:30 am Thursday will be busy, with Initial Jobless Claims, Personal Income (nominal), Personal Spending (nominal), PCE Index, Core PCE Index, PCE (Year-over-Year) & Core PCE (Year-over-Year) data being released, followed by New York Fed President John Williams speaking at 9:05 am, Chicago Business Barometer data at 9:45 am & Pending Home Sales data at 10 am.

Ulta Beauty, Academy Sports + Outdoors, Ambarella, American Woodmark, Big Lots, Cracker Barrel, Dell, Domo, Frontline, Kroger, PagerDuty, Royal Bank of Canada, Titan Machinery, Toronto-Dominion Bank, UBS AG, UiPath & Zumiez will all report earnings on Thursday.

Friday gives us Fed Governor Michael Barr speaking at 3 am, ISM Manufacturing data, Construction Spending & Austan Goolsbee speaking at 10 am, Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks at 11 am & Chair Powell & Lisa Cook speak to local leaders in Atlanta at 2 pm.

Genesco is scheduled to report earnings on Friday.

See you back here next week!

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM or DIA AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF advanced +2.31% over the past week, faring second best to the small cap Russell 2000 index.

Their RSI is trending towards overbought conditions & sits at 69.61, while their MACD is currently bullish, but beginning to show signs of being over-extended & wearing out.

Volumes were -5.72% below average compared to the year prior (77,666,967 vs. 82,383,130), adding skepticism to last Tuesday’s gap up session that has led to the most recent price range it trades in.

Monday the week kicked off on a slightly negative note, resulting in a spinning top candlestick, a clear sign of indecision which was further confirmed by the low volume of the day’s session.

Tuesday’s gap up was the highest volume session of the week, but the price action was mostly consolidated to the lower range of the day’s candlestick, signaling that the tall upper shadow did not have much strength.

Wednesday’s session resulted in a doji, as investors didn’t know what to think & mostly sat still, while Thursday showed market participants were slightly inclined to take more risk, but the day’s session remained tightly range-bound.

Friday capped the week off with a spinning top, that if it did not have an upper shadow would have been a hanging man, giving a downbeat sentiment moving into a new week, but the price inched higher.

Tuesday’s gap will be a key area to keep an eye on in the coming days, as only the 10 day moving average is currently in a position of support within the window, with the next highest level of support being below it at $438.14.

Their Average True Range does not indicate that last week’s new range is particularly strong & should be watched carefully over the coming week, particularly if the resistance of the $452.08/share price level holds up & prices are unable to break through.

SPY has support at the $442.39 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.1:1), $438.14 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.21:1), $432.64 (50 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.09:1) & $431.49/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.05:1) price level, with resistance at the $452.08 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.13:1) & $457.82/share (52-Week High; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.2:0*) price levels.

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF gained +2.02% last week, as market participants were least fond of the tech heavy index compared to the other major indexes.

Their RSI is trending towards overbought levels at 69.35, with their MACD still bullish but beginning to show signals of exhaustion & the top is curling over.

Volumes were -1.75% below average last week compared to the year prior (52,148,783 vs. 53,078,624), and a new 52-week high was hit, but the sentiment does not overly bullish currently, as all of the prices post-Tuesday’s gap up session are rangebound.

Monday kicked off the week on a downward note, however the candle was a doji, signaling that market participants did not have a clue as to whether they wanted to assume more risk or not.

Tuesday’s reaction to CPI data was a gap up, but most of the week’s sessions resulted in spinning tops, indicating that there is still a great deal of uncertainty & indecision in the marketplace.

Wednesday’s session set a new 52-week high, however prices were scared into closing the day lower than they opened, despite the day ending green.

Volumes continued to decline, Thursday as prices stuck around the range established on Tuesday by the gap up, but all eyes will be on whether or not that window begins to close this week, as the 52-week high did not encourage market participants to come out in droves & force the NASDAQ higher.

Their ATR also suggests that this price level may be short-lived & that there is not much strength propping price levels up currently.

There is ~2% between the current price & the next support level, which happens to sit below Tuesday’s window as well.

QQQ has support at the $380.28 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 4.25:1), $378.35 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.03:1), $373.74 (50 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.07:1) & $371.80/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.24:1) price level, with resistance at the $387.42 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.4:1) & $387.75/share (52-Week High; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.4:1) price levels.

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF jumped +5.43% last week after months of steady decline, mostly attributed to a gap up session on Tuesday.

Their RSI is trending towards overbought & sits at 60.33, while their MACD is showing signals of being overextended following Tuesday’s gap up session.

Volumes were +63.92% above average compared to the year prior (48,503,233 vs. 29,588,731) as market participants jumped back in on Tuesday following the CPI print in a session that eclipsed the sessions of the past 52-weeks.

Monday was a slightly bullish session that stayed neck & neck with Friday prior’s range.

Tuesday created a gap window that jumped almost above the top of the previous price range on the open & proceeded higher.

Wednesday’s candle resulted in a shooting star after rallying higher & temporarily breaking the resistance of the 200 day moving average before closing at the lower end of the day’s range, well below the 200 DMA.

Thursday saw some profit taking following the two high volume sessions with Friday’s candle sticking by the top of Thursday’s trading range, as market participants became unclear as to how strong the recent moves will hold up.

Their ATR is suggesting some consolidation into Tuesday’s window is on the near-term horizon, which will be where we see the strength of the support of their 10 & 50 day moving averages, both of which are currently sitting towards the upper end of the window.

IWM has more support in their price window than the previously mentioned indexes, mostly due to their more range-bound behavior & lack of runaway rallies.

Their current price is now ~10% above their 52-week low, making it especially interesting to keep an eye on their current support levels & how strong they are.

The $178.30 resistance level is also another place to keep an eye on, with Friday’s price action failing to close above it.

IWM has support at the $177.69 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.55:1), $177.23 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.55:1), $176.21 (50 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.55:1) & $175.65/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.08:1) price level, with resistance at the $178.30 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.25:1) & $178.45 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.25:1), $178.78 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.25:1) & $179.19/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.25:1) price levels.

DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF added +2.08% over the past week, outperforming only the NASDAQ in terms of major indexes.

Their RSI is pushing into overbought territory at 69.56 & their MACD is still bullish, but beginning to show signs of weakening.

Volumes were -6.72% below average compared to the year prior (3,294,200 vs. 3,531,437) as investors were content for the most part, with exception to Tuesday’s higher than average volume session.

Much like IWM, DIA’s window that was created Tuesday has more support touch-points within the window than SPY or QQQ.

Friday’s spinning top that closed lower than it opened is cause for concern & something that investors will want to keep in mind stepping into the new week.

DIA has support at the $344.13 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.36:1), $343.16 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.56:1), $340.64 (50 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.56:1) & $338.58/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.2:1) price level, with resistance at the $349.45 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.28:1) & $354.32/share (52-Week High; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.6:0*) price levels.

The Week Ahead

U.S. Leading Economic Indicators are released Monday at 10 am, followed by Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin making a TV appearance at 12 pm.

Monday’s earnings calls include Agilent, BellRing Brands, Keysight Technologies & Zoom Video Communications.

Existing Home Sales data is announced at 10 am Tuesday, with the Fed’s October 31-November 1st FOMC meeting minutes released at 2pm.

On Tuesday Abercrombie & Fitch, NVIDIA, Analog Devices, Autodesk, Baidu, Best Buy, Burlington Stores, Caleres, Dick’s Sporting Goods, Dycom, Guess?, Hibbett, HP, Jack In The Box, Jacobs Engineering, Kohl’s, Lowe’s, Medtronic, Nordstrom & Urban Outfitters are due to report earnings.

Wednesday kicks off with Initial Jobless Claims, Durable-goods Orders & Durable Goods-minus Transportation data at 8:30 am, followed by Consumer Sentiment (final) at 10 am.

Deere is scheduled to report earnings on Wednesday.

There are no major data announcements Thursday, as it is Thanksgiving.

Thursday (Thanksgiving) features earnings calls from Canadian banks Royal Bank of Canada & Toronto-Dominion Bank.

Friday has no noteworthy earnings reports scheduled & S&P Flash U.S. Services PMI & S&P Flash U.S. Manufacturing PMI data being released at 9:45 am.

See you back here next week!

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM or DIA AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF gained +1.13% over the past week, faring second best of the indexes, minus the NASDAQ.

Their RSI is trending towards overbought territory & currently sits at 62.15, while their MACD is still bullish, but beginning to show signs of exhaustion & like it is ready to curl over bearishly in the coming days.

Volumes were -11.14% below average compared to the year prior (73,294,080 vs. 82,484,337), which is not a signal of strength, particularly when you break down the weak volume Monday-Wednesday before Thursday when participants took their chips off of the table.

The week kicked off with a dragonfly doji in line with the range that was set up by last Friday’s gap up session that held support above the 50 day moving average.

Volume declined on Tuesday’s light advance session, and declined further for Wednesday’s session, which resulted in another dragonfly doji, indicating uncertainty & some fear on the part of market participants.

Thursday the volume advanced notably on a bearish engulfing candle that eclipsed the entire week ‘s price ranges leading up to it, as investors were eager to take profits off the table to safety.

Friday’s session squeezed out a +1.56% advance, which could be a squeeze before a slew of Fed speakers take to the stages this week, as prices closed in a no-man’s land area where there is limited support & resistance compared to the price action that has taken place there over the past 4-5 months.

Their Average True Range is reverting back towards its mean after the Advance of Friday, but when the calculation period is taken into account & the days of the coming week are factored in & the old days are dropped from the range, there looks to be more near-term downside risk.

The gaps of last week have left some windows that do not have much support near them open which may accelerate declines.

Something of note to keep an eye on too is the volume sentiment at their near-term support levels.

For the next ~3% there have been more buyers than sellers in the nearest support levels, however they weaken the further away from the current price that SPY falls, as shown in the table, before sellers take back over control at a clip of 1.81:1 after the price hits $427.99 & below.

The good news though is that after a -9.22% decline there will be some solid support once the $399.99/share level is reached, where Buyers have dominated the price zone 2.52:1 over the past 2-3 years.

SPY has support at the $438.14 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.21:1), $432.43 (50 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.09:1), $431.49 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.05:1) & $430.62/share price level (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.05:1), with resistance at the $452.08 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.13:1) & $457.82/share price levels (52-Week High; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.2:0*).

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF advanced +2.49% over the past week, having the strongest performance of the major indexes.

Their RSI is also trending towards overbought levels & sits at 65.02, with a MACD that is also signaling exhaustion & beginning to curl over bearishly, much like SPY.

Volumes were -10.83% below average compared to the year prior (47,491,740 vs. 53,261,799), which is troubling as Thursday’s declining volume was the second highest volume of the week, as money was taken off of the table following the rangebound trading of the earlier week.

Monday kicked the week off with a spinning top candlestick that was tightly tied to Friday’s candle, with the open occurring in Friday’s upper shadow, some of Friday’s real body being tested throughout the day, but ultimately prices closed higher.

Tuesday saw market participants rush in & push QQQ higher, but Wednesday’s dragonfly doji that fell within Tuesday’s daily range brought the uncertainty back to the fore.

Thursday resulted in a bearish engulfing candle, confirming that the first three bullish days of the week were on shaky grounds & uncertainty & Friday’s session saw advances, likely somewhat caused by the 10 & 50 DMA’s crossing bullishly, but the $380.28/share resistance level is going to be a more important test in the near-term.

Their ATR will be something to watch as the next week removes some of the lower, wider range sessions from the calculation & it will be imperative to factor in how the new sessions that replace them impact the calculation.

Unlike SPY, the strength of the supporting price levels within the next -3-4% leg lower do not get weaker in sentiment as we decline, however they’re not the stablest looking either & will be worth keeping a close look on, as 4 of the next 5 lower price zones are dominated by sellers & at more heavy ratios than the buyer dominated zones (except for the $360-363.99 zone).

There is a strong buyer sentiment ~9-10% below the current price though, where over the past 1-2 years Buyers have eclipsed sellers at a rate of 3.28:1.

QQQ has support at the $373.74 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.06:1), $371.80 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.24:1), $364.19 (50-Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.29:1) & $365.15/share price level (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.29:1), with resistance at the $380.28 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 4.25:1) & $387.42/share price levels (52-Week High; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.4:1).

IWM, the iShares Russell 2,000 ETF declined -1.86% over the past week, as investors fled small cap names in favor of larger cap stocks & the tech-heavy NASDAQ.

Their RSI is trending back towards neutral & currently sits at 47.73, while their MACD is looking flat (but still bullish, currently) & set to cross bearish any day now.

Volumes were +28% above average last week compared to the year prior (37,220,120 vs. 29,079,302), which is cause for concern given that the week had 4 declining sessions, two of which were higher volume than Friday’s advancing session.

After last Friday’s session was unable to break the resistance of the 50 day moving average, Monday continued the decline with a wide daily range session, followed by a doji on Tuesday that carried the declines further.

Despite the uncertainty of the doji, Wednesday continued lower to begin testing the $169.09 support level, which was broken on Thursday’s wide range day, but Friday’s session was able to bring the price level back above the $169.09 & 10 DMA support levels.

The volume for Friday was not convincing in terms of being indicative of a reversal in price though & the fact that most of the past few weeks’ highest advancing volumes occurred on gap days that left wide price windows with limited support around is cause for concern.

Their Average True Range is hinting that they may continue to slowly decline/consolidate in the near-term, as they try to break above the 10 DMA’s resistance level (currently it’s a support level, but would not remain one for long after a slight downwards move).

Their price:volume sentiment is also concerning, as while they are near their 52-week low & lack much support here (which will make the numbers appear more seller oriented), the two seller zones beneath the current price level contain some of the heaviest ratio’d levels on their past 1-2 year chart.

IWM has support at the $169.09 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 3.5:1), $168.77 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 3.5:1), $168.49 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 3.5:1) & $168.46/share price level (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 3.5:1), with resistance at the $171.08 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.88:1), $171.25 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.88:1), $174.22 (50 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.08:1) & $175.65/share price levels (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.08:1).

DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF added +0.58% over the past week, with only the Russell 2,000 faring worse for the week.

Their RSI is trending towards overbought levels & currently sits at 61.4, while their MACD is beginning to curl over bearishly & will be something to keep an eye on over the coming week.

Volumes declined -12.24% last week compared to the year prior’s average (3,111,380 vs. 3,545,435), signaling a lack of enthusiasm & that market participants are more eager to “wait & see” what happens next, rather than deploy capital.

Monday kicked the week off on an uncertain note, as the session resulted in a doji that inched higher above Friday’s previous close.

Tuesday we saw a further advance, but Wednesday’s declining session signaled trouble on the horizon & was followed by a wide range declining session Thursday, which was near the volume levels of Monday’s advancing session, which hints that the resilient DJIA may finally be losing its luster to market participants, despite having been a haven for many months.

Friday’s session added a new support level for this week, but looking at their ATR it appears that there may be some congestion around the price levels where their 10, 50 & 200 day moving averages sit currently in the event of a consolidation.

DIA’s price:volume sentiment from the past 3-4 years is another key area to be watching, particularly if they do begin to test the downside.

They currently have close by support levels in buyer dominated zones, however the sellers occupy 5 of the next 7 price zones, signaling that the rug may be easily pulled out from under DIA.

DIA has support at the $342.07 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.56:1), $341.33 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.56:1), $340.64 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.56:1) & $339.26/share price level (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.2:1), with resistance at the $343.85 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.56:1), $350.16 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.28:1) & $355.03/share price levels (52-Week High; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.6:0*).

Let’s dive into some of the best & worst performing industries & geo-locations in the market!

Japan Small Capped Equities (DXJS), S&P 500 Quality (SPHQ), Latin America 40 (ILF) & Brazil Small Caps (BRF) Are All Bullishly Leading The Market

DXJS, the WisdomTree Japan Hedged Small Cap Equity Fund ETF has advanced +37.34% over the past year, gaining +33.23% since their 52-week low in January of 2023 (ex-distributions).

Their RSI is on the overbought end of the neutral range, sitting at 56.76, while their MACD remains bullish, but is beginning to flatten out & flash signals of a cool down period in the near-term, while prices remain just below their 52-week high.

Volumes were +396.24% above average last week compared to the year prior (97,540 vs. 19,655.78), almost entirely due to Friday’s session which eclipsed the volume levels of the previous year.

Monday kicked off with a declining hammer candle that continued lower on Tuesday, whose session resulted in a spinning top & a gap down, signaling uncertainty among market participants, with strong bearish sentiment in the air.

Wednesday is where things get particularly interesting though, as the day opened on a gap down that was not supported by the 10 & 50 day moving averages, tested lower, but resulted in a hammer candle on weak volume compared to the rest of the week, which indicates that the hammer signal may not be that strong.

Thursday’s spinning top advanced higher, however t remained contained by the 10 DMA’s resistance, and Friday’s session was able to break above the 10 DMA & close above it on strong volume, but I would be watching for profit taking in the coming few days.

While DXJS offers a 2.57% distribution yield for long-term holders, it would be wise to begin thinking of taking some profits or looking into a hedging strategy for existing positions, particularly as it appears less & less likely that they have the support from their moving averages to take another run at the 52-week high & their ATR suggests that a consolidation is on the horizon.

DXJS has support at the $28.97 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $28.82 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $28.69 (50 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $28.38/share price level (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), with resistance at the $29.66 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $29.73/share price levels (52-Week High;Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*).

SPHQ, the Invesco S&P 500 Quality ETF has climbed +14.04% over the past year, adding +18.4% since their 52-week low in December of 2022 (ex-distributions).

Their RSI is trending towards overbought & currently sits at 59.78, while their MACD remains bullish, but is beginning to look overextended & like it may be time for a near-term consolidation.

Volumes were +110.28% above average last week compared to the year prior (1,501,160 vs. 713,870.92), which is interesting as the highest volume session was on Thursday, a declining day where market participants were taking their profits & mitigating risk.

Monday kicked off with an slightly advancing day but signaled indecision based on the spinning top candlestick.

Tuesday there was a glimmer of hope with a bearish engulfing candlestick, but Wednesday’s doji session was unable to close above the 50 day moving average.

Thursday was a wide range declining session, which as noted above the day’s volume really reiterated the bearish sentiment as prices dipped below the 50 DMA.

Friday opened below the 50 DMA but broke resistance & climbed higher, but the bullish volume did not manage to come too close to the day prior’s declining volume, which is not a bullish signal.

Unfortunately, SPHQ only offers a 1.59% distribution yield to long-term holders, which does minimal against potential losses in terms of providing a cushion, making it worth examining hedging strategies in the near-term.

Prices appear to be ready to continue descending, unless we see the $51.24/share resistance level broken & upheld as a support level.

Sellers have a lot of power in the near-term support levels historically, which will be something to keep an eye on moving into this week.

SPHQ has support at the $50.44 (50-Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.46:1), $50.02 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.46:1), $49.85 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.08:1) & $49.30/share price level (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.08:1), with resistance at the $51.24 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.27:1), $52.29 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.4:1) & $52.64/share price levels (52-Week High; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.4:1).

ILF, the iShares Latin America 40 ETF has notched +15.2% over the past year, climbing +22.21% since their 52-week low in December of 2022 (ex-distributions).

Their RSI is trending towards overbought at 63.68, while their MACD remains bullish but has begun to show significant loss of steam & looks ready for a bearish crossover in the near-term.

Volumes were -8.57% below average last week compared to the year prior (851,380 vs. 931,196.41), which was led by Monday’s declining volume being the highest day, which does not have bullish sentiment.

Monday’s session also resulted in a spinning top that closed just below Friday’s bullish close on a session that had a long upper shadow for the candle, which further confirms that there is bearish sentiment in the air now for ILF.

Tuesday tried to become bullish & did advance, but the day closed lower than it opened, setting the stage for Wednesday & Thursday’s declines, with Friday’s session advancing back up to the early-week price range.

Their ATR does not confirm much strength in the existing trend, and while they offer a hefty 8.62% distribution yield, it may be wise to begin thinking of hedging strategies & or taking some profits from existing positions.

Their next support levels are all in buyer dominated price zones, however should they cool down 13% they enter 4 zones that are seller dominated.

ILF has support at the $26.31 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.04:1), $25.99 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.33:1), $25.59 (2 Touch-points; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.33:1) & $25.49/share price level (50 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.33:1), with resistance at the $26.74 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.04:1), $26.95 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.04:1), $27.08 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.5:1) & $27.78/share price levels (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.5:1).

BRF, the VanEck Vectors Brazil Small-Cap ETF has advanced +13.29% over the past year, gaining +34.54% since their 52-week low in March of 2023 (ex-distributions).

Their RSI is trending towards overbought at 56.52, but their MACD is beginning to curl over already & starting to signal that there may be a bearish crossover in the coming week.

Volumes were -57.31% below average last week compared to the year prior (4,780 vs. 11,196.41), as market participants were not exactly eager to move one way or the other last week, which is also not a signal of strength (even aside from the highest volume day being declining volume).

Their price action last week mostly just stuck to around the 50 DMA, with a handful of gaps that have created windows that have limited support around.

Despite their 3.41% distribution yield which may provide some cushion against losses, this is one to be keeping a close eye on in the coming weeks, as there does not appear to be much strength currently.

BRF has support at the $16.10 (50 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.11:1), $16.04 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.11:1), $15.78 (200 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.15:1) & $15.74/share price level (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.15:1), with resistance at the $16.49 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.11:1), $16.61 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.08:1), $16.92 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.08:1) & $17.44/share price levels (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.02:1).

Cannabis (THCX), Retail (RETL), Self-Driving EV & Tech (IDRV) & South Korea (KORU) Are All Bearishly Lagging The Market

THCX, the Cannabis ETF has declined -52.67% over the past year, falling -56.29% from their 52-week high in December of 2022, while reclaiming +5.02% from their 52-week low in October of 2023 (ex-distributions).

Their RSI is trending back towards neutral & currently sits at 41.54, while their MACD is about to bearishly crossover during the next session or two.

Volumes were +48.6% above average last week compared to the year prior (5,520 vs. 3,714.66), as market participants were eager to hop out of the pool with some money before they potentially retest their 52-week low in the coming weeks.

Investors would be wise to keep an eye on the 10 DMA & how it acts as resistance & pushes the price back towards the 52-week low, as there is limited support of any kind right now for THCX.

Once they are able to reverse course, it will be imperative to see how the 10 DMA functions as support, but that likely will not be for some time.

While they offer a 1.71% distribution yield, that isn’t enough cushion to take risks with something so close to their 52-week low & with limited enthusiasm at their last level of support.

THCX has support at the $14.90/share price level (52-Week Low; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), with resistance at the $15.84 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 4.3:0*), $16.29 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.22:1), $16.66 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.28:1) & $16.69/share price levels (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.28:1).

RETL, the Direxion Daily Retail Bull 3x Shares ETF has fallen -39.49% over the past year, losing -59.29% since their 52-week high in February of 2023, while reclaiming +11.18% since their 52-week low in November of 2023 (ex-distributions).

Their RSI is around neutral at 47.77, while their MACD is signaling a bearish crossover will take place by mid-week.

Volumes were +11.98% above average last week compared to the year prior (505,440 vs. 451,369.72), as after 4 days of profit taking, Friday’s session managed to close on decent advancing volume.

While it was advancing volume & the highest volume day of the week, it is not an invitation to turn bullish just yet.

Investors will need to keep an eye on how the 10 & 50 DMAs function as resistance in the coming week, while also noting how the window that Friday’s session’s lower shadow tested holds up or gets filled.

RETL does have some support in the consolidation zone below their current price that was established in September/October, but a cool off from November’s early pop days that resulted in gap ups appears near.

Being so close to the 52-week low & only offering a 2.09% distribution yield makes it risky to begin looking at RETL just yet & it would be wisest to wait & see how the floor beneath them holds up before experimenting with a new position, especially given that they’re in the lowest price zone with sentiment that favors Sellers 1.96:1 from the past 1-2 years.

RETL has support at the $5.27 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.96:1), $5.12 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.96:1), $4.88 (Volume Sentiment: NULL; 0:0*) & $4.87/share price level (Volume Sentiment: NULL; 0:0*), with resistance at the $5.46 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.96:1), $5.63 (50 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.96:1), $5.74 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.96:1) & $5.81/share price levels (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.96:1).

IDRV, the iShares Self-Driving EV & Tech ETF has lost -16.5% over the past year, declining -29.86% since their 52-week high in July of 2023, and has advanced +3.62% since their 52-week low in November of 2023 (ex-distributions).

Their RSI is trending towards oversold & currently sits at 38.89, while their MACD is currently bullish, but flat, and will likely see a bearish crossover in the near-term, unless Friday’s dragonfly doji is able to actually spur a reversal.

Volumes last week were -0.29% below average compared to the year prior (47,000 vs. 47,134.66), showing that investors were indeed eager to take money off of the table following the gaps up of last Thursday & Friday’s sessions.

Given their proximity to their 52-week low & their modest 1.71% distribution yield, all eyes should be on the 10 DMA & their 52-week low as we enter the next few weeks before any positions are taken, especially given that this current price zone they are in is historically favoring the Sellers, 4:1.

While the $29-29.99 zone is heavily buyer favored (7:1), it would be wise to keep a close eye on your charts, as if that doesn’t hold up the next zone is dominated by sellers 3:1, which may signal a consolidation zone in the $29-29.99 range that appears down the line.

IDRV has support at the $30.95/share price level (52-Week Low; Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 4:1), with resistance at the $32.37 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.5:1), $32.41 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.4:1), $34.34 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.8:1) & $34.44/share price levels (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.8:1).

KORU, the Direxion Daily South Korea Bull 3x Shares ETF has fallen -23.63% over the past year, declining -38.07% since their 52-week high in January of 2023, while gaining +32.4% since their 52-week low in October of 2023 (ex-distributions).

Their RSI is just above the neutral level of 50 & sits at 53.57, while their MACD looks set to bearishly crossover by the end of the week, unless they are able to consolidate further into the range that they tried to establish towards the end of last week.

Volumes were +214.49% above average last week vs. the year prior’s average (818,960 vs. 260,410.36), which should be viewed with caution, given that the highest volume day was Monday’s astronomical gap up session, which quickly deflated throughout the rest of the week.

Tuesday & Wednesday’s gap downs paired with the dragonfly doji of Wednesday signaled that there is still a lot of uncertainty in the air & the 50 day moving average has provided adequate strength as a resistance level recently.

Friday’s session tried to advance, however the 50 DMA turned it down, which will lead to an interesting week as the 10 DMA is moving towards the lower end of Friday’s candle to act as support.

Their 1.76% distribution yield is not much cushion for entering a new position now, and volume sentiments should be watched closely as they interact with support & resistance levels in the coming week, as there could be more volatility in store.

KORU has support at the $7.09-7.10 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2.11:1), $7.05 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2.11:1), $6.93 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.07:1) & $6.75/share price level (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.07:1), with resistance at the $7.14 (50 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2.11:1), $7.20 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2.11:1), $7.31 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2.11:1) & $7.50/share price levels (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.09:1).

The Week Ahead

The week ahead kicks off with Fed Governor Lisa Cook speaking at 8:50 am, followed by Monthly U.S. Federal Budget data at 2 pm.

Monday’s earnings reports include AECOM, Fortrea, Genius Sports, Harrow, Henry Schein, Monday.com, The Beauty Health Company, Sun Life, Tower Semiconductor & Tyson Foods.

Tuesday gets busier, with New York Fed President John Williams speaking at 3 am, Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson speaking at 5:30 am, NFIB Optimism Index reported at 6 am, Consumer Price Index, Core CPI, CPI Year-Over-Year & Core CPI Year-Over-Year reported at 8:30 am, Fed Vice Chair For Supervision Michael Barr testifying to s Senate panel at 10 am & Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee speaking at 12:45 pm.

Home Depot, Alcon, Aramark, CAE, Canadian Solar, Energizer, HUYA, IHS Holding Limited, Oaktree Specialty Lending, On, Paysafe, Sally Beauty, Sea Ltd., Tencent Music, Varex Imaging, Vipshop & WalkMe are all due to report earnings on Tuesday.

8:30 am Wednesday is packed with data, including the Producer Price Index, Core PPI, PPI Y-o-Y, Core PPI Y-o-Y, U.S. Retail Sales, Retail Sales minus Autos & Empire State Manufacturing Survey data, followed by New York Fed President John Williams Speaking at 9:25 am, Business Inventories data released & Michael Barr testifying before a House panel at 10 am & Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin speaking at 3:30 pm.

Wednesday’s earnings calls feature Cisco Systems, Advance Auto Parts, Catalent, Cisco Systems, Copa Holdings, Endava, Hillenbrand, J&J Snack Foods, JD.com, Kulicke & Soffa, Palo Alto Networks, Sonos, Target, Tetra Tech & TJX.

Thursday kicks off with Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr speaking at 7:10 am, Initial Jobless Claims, Import Price Index, Import Price Index Minus Fuel, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey data & Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester speaking at 8:30 am, Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization reports at 9:15 am, NY Fed President John Williams speaking at 9:25 am, Home Builders Confidence Index data at 10 am, Fed Governor Waller speaking at 10:30, Michael Barr speaking again at 10:35 am & Fed Governor Lisa Cook speaking at 12pm.

Walmart, Alibaba Group Holding, Applied Materials, Bath & Body Works, Beazer Homes, Berry Global, Borr Drilling, Brady, BrightView, Dolby Labs, Dole, Gap, Macy’s, Post, Ross Stores, Shoe Carnival, Stratasys, UGI Corp, Warner Music Group & ZTO Express report earnings on Thursday.

Housing Starts & Building Permits data is released Friday at 8:30 am, followed by Boston Fed President Susan Collins speaking at 8:45 am, Michael Barr & Chicago Fed President Goolsbee speaking at 9:45 am & San Francisco Fed President Daly speaking at 10 am.

Friday we get earnings reports from BJ’s Wholesale, Buckle, Spectrum Brands & Twist Bioscience.

See you back here next week! 

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM, DIA, DXJS, SPHQ, ILF, BRF, THCX, RETL, IDRV or KORU AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***

Last week indexes all began to show weakness, as volumes told the tale that investors & market participants are beginning to become fearful & head towards the exits.

At times like these it is important to have an understanding of how market participants have behaved at similar price levels in recent history, as we have posted on here before in prior price:volume sentiment analyses.

This document will provide a brief overview of current technical conditions for the S&P 500 (SPY), NASDAQ (QQQ), Russell 2000 (IWM) & Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA), and provide a list of their historic volume sentiments at each price level that they’ve traded at in the past few years.

The first image of the price:volume sentiment images will contain their support & resistance levels over the past year & how the price:volume sentiment stands at each, followed by a broader list of price levels & their respective sentiments.

Below those items will also be a text version of the list, where the moving averages & current price levels will be annotated, and any support/resistance levels will be in BOLD text.

This will be in place of my usual weekend post.

Technical Analysis & Price:Volume Sentiment For SPY (S&P 500)

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF, declined -2.39% over the past week, as the cracks we’ve been seeing over the past couple of months finally began to give way & are set to retest the $420.18/share support set in early October.

Their RSI is currently bounding towards the oversold mark of 30 & sits at 35.45, while their MACD has just bearishly crossed over, signaling more near-term declines are on the horizon.

Most alarming for SPY was that their volume last week was +17.33% above average compared to the year prior (97,438,267 vs. 83,046,224), as bearish sentiment has begun to take over just as the share price tests the support of the 200 Day Moving Average.

Monday the week kicked off on a slightly bullish note, however the session’s high was nowhere near testing the resistance of the 50 day moving average & the volume was very weak, which is troubling for the only bullish day on a very bearish week.

Tuesday resulted in a decline that did test the 50 DMA, but that ultimately also tested the support of the 10 day moving average & the candles real body wound up being wedged between the two moving averages, again on similarly light volume to Monday, which was a bad omen.

Wednesday we got the confirmation that things had taken a turn for the worst, with a bearish session that neither tested the 50 DMA again, nor that could stay above the 10 DMA’s support level, as the 10 DMA ended up being halfway through the wide-range candle’s real body by the close.

Thursday briefly attempted to test the 10 DMA’s resistance, but the open & closing price action on the candle tell the whole story, market participants were not interested in price levels being that high, which lead to Friday’s bearish session that closed hovering just above the 200 DMA’s support.

SPY’s Average True Range signals that there will be more volatility in the near-term, with a slight chance of a brief consolidation for a day or two this week, only if the 200 DMA support level holds up.

If it fails to, it will be imperative to understand how prior trading took place at each price level, so that market participants can gauge what sentiment may be like at the support levels it tests in the coming weeks.

SPY’s $416/share block is currently Buyer dominated over the past 2-3 years 2.24:1, but there is plenty of seller sentiment mixed into the price blocks down -8.83% from their current share price, before it becomes a steep slope of sellers until a ~13-14% decline from their current price has occurred.

SPY ETF’s Price:Volume Sentiment Over The Past 2-3 Years

$468 – NULL – 0:0*; +11.11% From Current Price Level

$464 – Buyers – 1.44:1; +10.16% From Current Price Level

$460 – Sellers – 1:0*; +9.21% From Current Price Level

$456 – Buyers – 3.2:0*; +8.26% From Current Price Level

$452 – Sellers – 1.13:1; +7.31% From Current Price Level

$448 – Buyers – 1.33:1; +6.37% From Current Price Level

$444 – Sellers – 1.13:1; +5.42% From Current Price Level

$440 – Buyers – 1.10:1; +4.47% From Current Price Level

$436 – Buyers – 1.21:1; +3.52% From Current Price Level

$432 – Buyers – 1.09:1; +2.57% From Current Price Level

$428 – Buyers – 1.05:1; +1.62% From Current Price Level – 10 & 50 Day Moving Averages**

$424 – Sellers – 1.81:1; +0.67% From Current Price Level

$420 – Sellers – 3.15:1; -0.28% From Current Price Level; Current Price Block*

$416 – Buyers – 2.24:1; -1.23% From Current Price Level – 200 Day Moving Average*

$412 – Sellers – 1.03:1; -2.18% From Current Price Level

$408 – Buyers – 1.28:1; -3.13% From Current Price Level

$404 – Sellers – 1.15:1; -4.08% From Current Price Level

$400 – Sellers – 1.93:1; -5.03% From Current Price Level

$396 – Buyers – 2.52:1; -5.98% From Current Price Level

$392 – Buyers – 1.76:1; -6.93% From Current Price Level

$388 – Buyers – 1.05:1; -7.88% From Current Price Level

$384 – Sellers – 1.84:1; -8.83% From Current Price Level

$380 – Sellers – 2.38:1; -9.78% From Current Price Level

$376 – Sellers – 1.63:1; -10.73% From Current Price Level

$372 – Sellers – 1.26:1; -11.68% From Current Price Level

$368 – Sellers – 1.75:1; -12.63% From Current Price Level

$364 – Sellers – 1.86:1; -13.58% From Current Price Level

$360 – Buyers – 1.53:1; -14.53% From Current Price Level

$356 – Sellers – 5.89:1; -15.48% From Current Price Level

$352 – Sellers – 2.1:0*; -16.43% From Current Price Level

$348 – Sellers – 1.7:0*; -17.38% From Current Price Level

$344 – NULL – 0:0*; -18.33% From Current Price Level

$340 – NULL – 0:0*; -19.28% From Current Price Level

Technical Analysis & Price:Volume Sentiment For QQQ (NASDAQ)

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF fell -2.92% last week, taking the largest hit of the major indexes.

Their RSI is aggressively moving towards the oversold mark at 30 & sits currently at 38.57, while their MACD has recently crossed over bearishly & is currently in freefall.

Volumes were +7.26% higher than average last week compared to the year prior (57,765,767 vs. 53,856,939), but Thursday & Friday’s near matching bearish volumes are a cause for concern, given that they were the highest volume sessions of the week.

Friday at such a level would be expected, as it would be a risk-off move going into the weekend, but the fact that Thursday’s volumes were near-identical signals that there is more than just a little fear out in the markets & indicative of more risk-off behavior in the near-future.

Much like SPY, QQQ kicked off the week on a bullish note, opening at the 50 day moving average’s support & closing up on the day, before Tuesday’s declining day which showed a hint of optimism, opening at the same support level, joined by the 10 DMA for support & closing slightly above their open, despite declining overall.

However, Wednesday’s session opened beneath the 10 & 50 DMA’s resistance levels, and while they briefly broke above it mid-day, prices focused on the lower range of the day’s prices & tested even below their close, foreshadowing the weakness of Thursday & Friday.

Thursday again attempted to break the resistance of the 10 & 50 DMAs, but resulted in declines, which led to Friday’s additional day of declines as fear officially crept into the market.

Like SPY, QQQ has limited support anywhere near their current price, which signals that they may see sharper declines than SPY in the near-term & making their Average True Range reading harder to rely on, as it signals a brief consolidation is warranted in the near-term, but there are few places with strong support levels near their price, as until the $340 block begins at $343.99, it is a seller dominated zone (making it a -4.12% decline before any sturdy footing, historically).

Even should QQQ find brief footing in the $340 (Buyers, 3.28:1) & $336 (Buyers, 1.25:1), the next two blocks are Seller dominated before one last Buyer stand in the $324/share block, which is -8.63% below the current price level, before the sellers take over again.

QQQ ETF’s Price:Volume Sentiment Over The Past 1-2 Years

$388 – NULL – 0:0*; +9.42% From Current Price Level

$384 – Buyers – 1.4:1; +8.29% From Current Price Level

$380 – Buyers – 4.25:1; +7.16% From Current Price Level

$376 – Sellers – 1.03:1; +6.03% From Current Price Level

$372 – Buyers – 1.07:1; +4.91% From Current Price Level

$368 – Buyers – 1.24:1; +3.78% From Current Price Level

$364 – Buyers – 1.29:1; +2.65% From Current Price Level – 10 & 50 Day Moving Averages**

$360 – Sellers – 1.09:1; +1.52% From Current Price Level

$356 – Sellers – 1.73:1; +0.39% From Current Price Level

$352 – Buyers – 1.63:1; -0.73% From Current Price Level; Current Price Block*

$348 – Sellers – 1.48:1; -1.86% From Current Price Level

$344 – Sellers – 1.78:1; -2.99% From Current Price Level

$340 – Buyers – 3.28:1; -4.12% From Current Price Level

$336 – Buyers – 1.25:1; -5.25% From Current Price Level – 200 Day Moving Average*

$332 – Sellers – 6.13:1; -6.37% From Current Price Level

$328 – Sellers – 1.05:1; -7.5% From Current Price Level

$324 – Buyers – 2.57:1; -8.63% From Current Price Level

$320 – Sellers – 1.2:1; -9.76% From Current Price Level

$316 – Sellers – 1.97:1; -10.89% From Current Price Level

$312 – Sellers – 1.67:1; -12.01% From Current Price Level

$308 – Buyer s- 1.21:1; -13.14% From Current Price Level

$304 – Buyers – 1.05:1; -14.27% From Current Price Level

$300 – Sellers – 2.25:1; -15.4% From Current Price Level

$296 – Buyers – 2.33:1; -16.53% From Current Price Level

$292 – Buyers – 1.72:1; -17.65% From Current Price Level

$288 – Sellers – 2.02:1; -18.78% From Current Price Level

$284 – Sellers – 1.59:1; -19.91% From Current Price Level

$280 – Even; 1:1; -21.04% From Current Price Level

$276 – Sellers – 1.09:1; -22.17% From Current Price Level

$272 – Sellers – 1.77:1; -23.29% From Current Price Level

$268 – Sellers – 1.23:1; -24.42% From Current Price Level

$264 – Buyers – 1.33:1; -25.55% From Current Price Level

$260 – Sellers – 4.4:1; -26.68% From Current Price Level

$256 – Sellers – 2.2:0*; -27.81% From Current Price Level

Technical Analysis & Price:Volume Sentiment For IWM (Russell 2000)

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF lost -2.25% last week, after being in a steady decline since August & is approaching their 52-week low, which was set almost one year ago.

Their RSI is approaching the oversold mark & sits currently at 32.57, while their MACD crossed over bearishly a few days ago.

Most alarming for IWM is the strength of the outflow volume last week, which was +46.01% higher than average when compared to the average volumes for the year prior (41,537,250 vs. 28,447,780), as this indicates a bit more than profit taking was going on & is a signal of broader weakness.

Monday of last week showed hope for the bulls, as IWM was able to break & close above the resistance of the 10 day moving average & the momentum was able to carry into Tuesday for another day of gains.

Tuesday flashed warning signs however, as the day’s price action was all centered around the lower end of the candle, but the upper shadow ran up beyond the $176/share level, but was unable to close near it.

Wednesday the mudslide began & the support of the 10 DMA was broken down, leading way to Thursday & Friday’s declines as well.

Their ATR signals that there may be a brief consolidation on the horizon, unless there is an outright steep decline this week, as all eyes look to see how the support of their 52-week low holds up from about one year ago.

Sellers are currently in control on the $166 price block 1.75:1, with the next lower block of $164 being the lowest level with data for the past 2-3 years being seller dominated at a rate of 2.83:1.

Any further declines will be into uncharted territory from this analysis’s perspective, as $162/share & lower are denoted NULL (not enough volume to report on, but not no volume at all).

IWM ETF’s Price:Volume Sentiment Over The Past 1-2 Years

$198 – NULL – 0:0*; +18.96% From Current Price Level

$196 – Buyers – 2.29:1; +17.76% From Current Price Level

$194 – Buyers – 1.38:1; +16.56% From Current Price Level

$192 – Buyers – 1.12:1; +15.36% From Current Price Level

$190 – Sellers – 1.27:1; +14.16% From Current Price Level

$188 – Buyers – 4.8:1; +12.95% From Current Price Level

$186 – Buyers – 3.4:1; +11.75% From Current Price Level

$184 – Sellers – 1.33:1; +10.55% From Current Price Level

$182 – Buyers – 1.36:1; +9.35% From Current Price Level

$180 – Sellers – 1.22:1; +8.15% From Current Price Level – 200 Day Moving Average*

$178 – Sellers – 1.25:1; +6.95% From Current Price Level – 50 Day Moving Average*

$176 – Buyer s- 1.55:1; +5.74% From Current Price Level

$174 – Buyers – 1.08:1; +4.54% From Current Price Level

$172 – Buyers – 1.31:1; +3.34% From Current Price Level – 10 Day Moving Average*

$170 – Sellers – 1.88:1; +2.14% From Current Price Level

$168 – Sellers – 3.5:1; +0.94% From Current Price Level

$166 – Sellers – 1.75:1; -0.26% From Current Price Level; Current Price Block*

$164 – Sellers – 2.83:1; -1.47% From Current Price Level

$162 – NULL – 0:0*; -2.67% From Current Price Level

Technical Analysis & Price:Volume Sentiment For DIA (Dow Jones Industrial Average)

DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF fared the best of the major indexes last week, dropping -1.52% as investors still maintained faith in the larger cap names.

Their RSI is nosediving towards oversold & sits currently at 36.17, with a MACD that is set for a bearish crossover tomorrow or Tuesday.

Volumes were still an area of concern for DIA though, with last week’s volume being +20.45% above average compared to the year prior (4,367,283 vs. 3,625,732) & Thursday was the largest volume day, on a decline that broke the support of the 10 & 200 day moving averages, signaling that there is a sense of panic now for the index that has remained the most resilient recently.

Monday kicked off with a candle that is slightly larger bodied than a spinning top & remained relatively range-bound, indicating hesitance on the part of market participants & Tuesday’s candle’s real body remained in the same range, despite the upper shadow extending higher, indicating that there was limited interest in going above the range.

Wednesday’s decline was supported by the 10 day moving average, before Thursday’s aggressive decline (by volume) broke through the 10 & 200 DMA, leading to Friday’s decline that broke down the $331.76/share support level to close lower.

All eyes will be on the $328/share range, which has historically been dominated by buyers over the past 3-4 years at a rate of 1.1:1.

After that the sellers take control for another -7% of downside before buyers step back into control historically, as the data below shows.

DIA ETF’S Price:Volume Sentiment Over The Past 3-4 Years

$356 – NULL – 0:0; +7.49% From Current Price Level

$352 – Buyers – 2.6:0*; +6.28% From Current Price Level

$348 – Sellers – 1.28:1; +5.08% From Current Price Level

$344 – Buyers – 1.35:1; +3.87% From Current Price Level

$340 – Buyers – 1.56:1; +2.66% From Current Price Level – 50 Day Moving Average*

$336 – Buyers – 1.2:1; +1.45% From Current Price Level – 10 Day Moving Average*

$332 – Sellers – 1.07:1; +0.24% From Current Price Level – 200 Day Moving Average*

$328 – Buyers – 1.1:1; -0.96% From Current Price Level; Current Price Block*

$324 – Sellers – 1.41:1; -2.17% From Current Price Level

$320 – Sellers – 1.27:1; -3.38% From Current Price Level

$316 – Sellers – 1.12:1; -4.59% From Current Price Level

$312 – Sellers – 1.46:1; -5.79% From Current Price Level

$308 – Buyers – 1.24:1; -7% From Current Price Level

$304 – Buyers – 1.09:1; -8.21% From Current Price Level

$300 – Buyer s – 1.17:1; -9.24% From Current Price Level

$296 – Even – 1:1; -10.63% From Current Price Level

$292 – Sellers – 1.35:1; -11.83% From Current Price Level

$288 – Sellers – 1.08:1; -13.04% From Current Price Level

$284 – Sellers – 1.05:1; -14.25% From Current Price Level

$280 – Sellers – 2.25:1; -15.46% From Current Price Level

$276 – Buyers – 3.33:1; -16.66% From Current Price Level

$272 – Buyers – 2:1; -17.87% From Current Price Level

$268 – Buyers – 2:1; -19.08% From Current Price Level

$264 – Sellers – 1.43:1; -20.29% From Current Price Level

$260 – Sellers – 1.18:1; -21.5% From Current Price Level

$256 – Even – 1:1; -22.7% From Current Price Level

$252 – Buyers – 7:1; -23.91% From Current Price Level

$248 – Sellers – 0.6:0*; -25.12% From Current Price Level

$244 – NULL – 0:0*; -26.33% From Current Price Level

The Week Ahead

Let’s take a look at some of the things that may move the markets in the coming week.

Monday has no economic data scheduled for reporting, but Agilysys, Alexandria Real Estate Equities, Brown & Brown, Cadence Bank, Calix Networks, Cleveland-Cliffs, Crane, Medpace, Packaging Cor of America, Simpson Manufacturing, W.R. Berkley & WSFS Financial are all scheduled to report earnings.

Tuesday brings us the S&P Case-Schiller Home Price Index (20 Cities) at 9 am, S&P Flash U.S. Services PMI & S&P Flash U.S. Manufacturing PMI data at 9:45 am.

Tuesday’s earnings calls include Microsoft, 3M, Alphabet, Archer-Daniels-Midland, Ares Capital, Boyd Gaming, Canadian National Railway, Centene, Coca-Cola, Chubb, Corning, Danaher, Dover, Dow, Encore Wire, F5 Networks, Franklin Electric, General Electric, General Motors, Halliburton, Hawaiian Holdings, Illinois Tool Works, Invesco, JBT Corp, Kimberly-Clark, Matador Resources, NextEra Energy, Nucor, Old National Bancorp, PACCAR, PacWest Bancorp, Pentair, Polaris Industries, PulteGroup, Quest Diagnostics, Range Resources, Robert Half, RTX, Sherwin-Williams, Simply Good Foods, Snap, Spotify, Synchrony Financial, Teck Resources, Teladoc Health, Texas Instruments, TransUnion, Verizon Communications, Vicor, Visa, Waste Management & Xerox.

Wednesday we get New Home Sales data at 10 am, as well as earnings reports from Meta Platforms, Agnico-Eagle Mines, Alamos, Align Technology, Amphenol, Antero Resources, AptarGroup, Automatic Data, AvalonBay, Avery Dennison, Baker Hughes, Boeing, BOK Financial, Canadian Pacific Kansas City, Chemed, Churchill Downs, CME Group, CNX Resources, Community Health, Edwards Lifesciences, Element Solutions, EQT Corp., Equinix, Ethan Allen, Everest Group, Evercore, Flex, Flowserve, Fortive, General Dynamic, Globe Life, Graco, Greenbrier, Hess, Hilton, International Business Machines, IDEX Corp, IMAX, Invitation Homes, Kilroy Realty, KLA Corp. Lending Club, Lithia Motors, Mattel, Molina Healthcare, Moody’s, Mr. Cooper Group, MSC Industrial, Navient, Netgear, Norfolk Southern, O’Reilly Automotive, Old Dominion Freight Line, Otis Worldwide, Owens Corning, Pilgrim’s Pride, Ryder System, Sallie Mae, SEI Investments, ServiceNow, Sun Communities, Sunnova Energy, Taylor Morrison Home, Teledyne Technologies, Teradyne, Thermo Fisher Scientific, T-Mobile US, Travel + Leisure, United Rentals, Universal Health, Valmont Industries, VICI Properties, Viking Therapeutic, Wabash National, Weatherford International, WesBanco, West Fraser, Western Union, Whirlpool, and Wyndham Hotels & Resorts.

GDP, Initial Jobless Claims, Durable-Goods Orders, Durable-Goods Minus Transportation, Advanced U.S. Trade Balance in Goods, Advanced Retail Inventories & Advanced Wholesale Inventories data are released at 8:30 am on Thursday, followed by Pending Home Sales at 10 am.

Thursday’s earnings calls include Amazon.com, A.O. Smith, AllianceBernstein, Altria Group, American Tower, Applied Industrial, Arch Coal, BJ Restaurants, Boston Beer, Boston Scientific, Bristol Meyers Squibb, Brunswick, Bunge, Camden Property, Capital One Financial, Carlisle Cos, Carrier Global, CenterPoint Energy, CMS Energy, Chemours, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Cincinnati Financial, Columbia Sportswear, Comcast, Coursera, Cullen/Frost, Deckers Outdoor, Dexcom, Digital Realty Trust, Eastman Chemical, Encompass Health, Enphase Energy, Essex Property, First American Financial, Federated Hermes, FirstEnergy, Ford Motor, Gaming & Leisure Properties, Grainger, Harley-Davidson, Hartford Financial Group, Hasbro, Hershey Foods, Hertz Global, Honeywell, Hub Group, Intel, International Paper, Juniper Networks, Kenvue, Keurig Dr. Pepper, Kimco Realty, L3Harris, Laboratory Corp. of America, Lennox International, Linde, Masco, Mastercard, Medical Properties Trust, Merck, Mobileye Global, Mohawk Industries,NerdWallet, Newmont Goldcorp, Northrop Grumman, NovoCure, Olin, Overstock.com, Peabody Energy, PG&E, Principal Financial Group, PTC Therapeutics, Reliance Steel, Republic Services, Royal Caribbean, Seagate Technology, Sketchers USA, SkyWest, Southwest Airlines, STAG International, STMicroelectronics, Terex, Texas Roadhouse, Textron, Tractor Supply Company, Tradeweb Markets, TRI Pointe Homes, United Parcel Services, U.S. Steel, UDR, Valero Energy, VeriSign, Vulcan Materials, Willis Towers Watson & Weyerhaeuser.

Friday the week winds down with Personal Income (nominal), Personal Spending (nominal), PCE Index, Core PCE Index, PCE (Year-over-Year) & Core PCE (Year-over-Year) at 8:30 am, followed by Consumer Sentiment (Final) data at 10 am.

Friday’s earnings calls feature AbbVie, AerCap Holdings, Aon, AutonNation, Avantor, Barnes Group, BoozAllen Hamilton, CBRE Group, Chart Industries, Colgate-Palmolive, Exxon Mobil, First Hawaiin, Fortis, Gentex, Imperial Oil, LyondellBasell, Newell Brands, Phillips 66, Piper Sandler, Saia, Sanofi, Stanley Black & Decker, T. Rowe Price, WisdomTree & Xcel Energy.

See you back here next week!

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM or DIA AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***