Author: OptimizedValue

Since our last Volume Sentiment Analysis at the beginning of April the major four indexes have advanced, but there has still been plenty of volatility & a good amount of gap activity.

Last night the VIX closed at 18.09, indicating an implied one day move of +/-1.14% & an implied one month move of +/-5.23% for the S&P 500.

Volumes have been more elevated than they had been for much of the past year, however as we’ve noted many times over the past year, volumes Y-o-Y between 2025-2024 are still below the prior year’s average levels from 2023 & earlier.

While some may take this as a sign of confidence, given the market’s actual price movements it appears more like uncertainty & profit grabbing than any actual change in long-term sentiment.

With that said, there is still a lot of uncertainty in the air regarding tariffs & foreign relations, as well as with the future state of corporate earnings, which makes it an important time to have an understanding of how market participants have behaved historically at different price levels as we begin to see re-tests.

This is especially true in the wake of this week’s performance, where stretched out MACDs have begun to show weakness & that there is likely a breather on the horizon for markets, which will make the strength/weakness of support/resistance levels even more important.

This can be valuable when assessing risk in the event of retests of any of these levels.

Each section below contains a view of each index ETF’s chart (for a technical breakdown of each ETF’s chart please see this past weekend’s market review note), as well as a list of their current one year support & resistance levels with the volume sentiment noted beneath it on the table.

There is an additional table beneath this table with each price level’s sentiment, as well as a typed text version below that is able to be copied & pasted.

Note that “NULL, 0:0*” values denote areas that each name has traded at but with limited volume data to work with from a comparison standpoint in terms of creating a ratio of buyers:sellers (or vice versa) or is the outlier above the highest/lowest level with price data.

Also, prices that do have a ratio of Buyers:Sellers (Sellers:Buyers) where the denominator is 0 are denoted with an asterisk “*” as well.

In the written lists of the price levels & volume sentiments the price levels that contain support & resistance levels are marked in BOLD.

Recall that at price extremes such as the highs that we have recently hit there will tend to be skewed data due to the small sample size & factor that into how you interpret each price level’s reported sentiment.

This is intended to serve as an additional tool, similar to a barometer to use during your due diligence process & is not meant to replace doing your own research & is not financial advice.

Price Level:Volume Sentiment Analysis For SPY, The SPDR S&P 500 ETF

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF has shaken off the declines of late March, but based on the number & size of gaps & the proximity of SPY’s long & short-term trend lines to one another & price, we may see some profit taking on the near-term horizon.

While SPY’s recent gains have placed it back within 5 resistance levels of its all-time high, its oscillators above are signaling there is likely to be a cool-down period soon.

This will be interesting, as five of the next 6 support levels are historically Seller zones, and the window left open by last Monday’s gap up is primed to close, which will also involve a re-test of the long-term moving average.

For a deeper dive into the near-term horizon for SPY see the market review in the link in the section above.

$610 – Buyers – 0.2:0*, +2.89% From Current Price Level

$615 – NULL – 0:0*, +3.74% From Current Price Level

$605 – Buyers – 1.43:1, +2.05% From Current Price Level

$600 – Buyers – 1.46:1, +1.21% From Current Price Level

$595 – Sellers – 1.41, +0.36% From Current Price Level

$590 – Buyers – 4.08:1, -0.48% From Current Price Level – Current Price Level*

$585 – Buyers – 1.82:1, -1.32% From Current Price Level

$580 – Sellers – 2.16:1, -2.17% From Current Price Level – 10 Day Moving Average*

$575 – Sellers – 1.28:1, -3.01% From Current Price Level

$570 – Buyers – 1.77:1, -3.85% From Current Price Level – 200 Day Moving Average*

$565 – Buyers – 1.77:1, -4.7% From Current Price Level

$560 – Buyers – 1.22:1, -5.54% From Current Price Level

$555 – Buyers – 2.08:1, -6.38% From Current Price Level

$550 – Buyers – 1.54:1, -7.23% From Current Price Level – 50 Day Moving Average*

$545 – Buyers – 2.57:1, -8.07% From Current Price Level

$540 – Buyers – 2.08:1, -8.91% From Current Price Level

$535 – Sellers – 1.34:1, -9.76% From Current Price Level

$530 – Buyers – 4.25:1, -10.6% From Current Price Level

$525 – Buyers – 1.63:1, -11.44% From Current Price Level

$520 – Buyers – 1.71:1, -12.29% From Current Price Level

$515 – Sellers – 1.09:1, -13.13% From Current Price Level

$510 – Buyers – 1.25:1, -13.97% From Current Price Level

$505 – Sellers – 1.96:1, -14.82% From Current Price Level

$500 – Sellers – 1.59:1, -15.66% From Current Price Level

$496 – Sellers – 1.96:1, -16.34% From Current Price Level

$492 – Sellers – 1.75:1, -17.01% From Current Price Level

$488 – Buyers – 1.11:1, -17.69% From Current Price Level

$484 – Sellers – 1.15:1, -18.36% From Current Price Level

$480 – Buyers – 4.75:1, -19.04% From Current Price Level

$476 – Buyers – 1.83:1, -19.71% From Current Price Level

$472 – Buyers, 1.6:1, -20.38% From Current Price Level

$468 – Buyers – 5.67:1, -21.06% From Current Price Level

$464 – Sellers – 1.23:1, -21.73% From Current Price Level

$460 – Sellers – 1.12:1, -22.41% From Current Price Level

$456 – Sellers – 0.8:0*, -23.08% From Current Price Level

$452 – Buyers – 1.1:0*, -23.76% From Current Price Level

$448 – Buyers – 2:0*, -24.43% From Current Price Level

$444 – Buyers – 1.51:1, -25.11% From Current Price Level

$440 – Buyers – 4.31:1, -25.78% From Current Price Level

$436 – Sellers – 1.05:1, -26.46% From Current Price Level

$432 – Sellers -1.04:1, -27.13% From Current Price Level

$428 – Buyers – 1.13:1, -27.81% From Current Price Level

$424 – Buyers – 1.61:1, -28.48% From Current Price Level

$420 – Sellers – 1.09:1, -29.16% From Current Price Level

$416 – Even – 1:1, -29.83% From Current Price Level

$412 -Sellers – 2.71:1, -30.51% From Current Price Level

$408 – Buyers – 3.54:1, -31.18% From Current Price Level

$404 – Sellers – 1.06:1, -31.85% From Current Price Level

$400 – Buyers – 1.71:1, -32.53% From Current Price Level

$396 – Sellers – 1.52:1, -33.2% From Current Price Level

$392 – Sellers – 1.29:1, -33.88% From Current Price Level

$388 – Buyers – 2.95:1, -34.55% From Current Price Level

$384 – Buyers – 1.55:1, -35.23% From Current Price Level

$380 – Buyers – 1.24:1, -35.9% From Current Price Level

$376 – Sellers – 2.32:1, -36.58% From Current Price Level

$372 – Sellers – 2.17:1, -37.25% From Current Price Level

$368 – Sellers – 1.73:1, -37.93% From Current Price Level

$364 – Sellers – 1.5:1, -38.6% From Current Price Level

$360 – Sellers – 2.25:1, -39.28% From Current Price Level

$356 – Buyers – 3:1, -39.95% From Current Price Level

$352 – Buyers – 1.22:1, -40.63% From Current Price Level

$348 – Sellers – 3.4:0*, -41.3% From Current Price Level

$344 – Sellers – 4.3:0*, -41.98% From Current Price Level

$340 – NULL – 0:0*, -42.65% From Current Price Level

Price Level:Volume Sentiment Analysis For QQQ, The Invesco QQQ Trust ETF

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF has had a similar past month & a half to SPY, as the two indexes have moved together for the past few years for the most part.

Their volume trends have also had some similarities, with neither at the moment appearing to be ready for a convincing lift-off that has sustainable support.

With that said, the data below when combined with the near-term outlook in this week’s market review note in the link in section one can be beneficial to identify where QQQ & its component stocks wind up heading next.

$545 – NULL – 0:0*, +4.75% From Current Price Level

$540 – NULL – 0:0*, +3.79% From Current Price Level

$535 – Buyer s- 6.67:1, +2.83% From Current Price Level

$530 – Buyers – 3.33:1, +1.87% From Current Price Level

$525 – Buyers – 1.69:1, +0.91% From Current Price Level

$520 – Buyers – 1.47:1, -0.05% From Current Price Level – Current Price Level*

$515 – Buyers – 1.44:1, -1.01% From Current Price Level

$510 – Sellers – 2.75:1, -1.97% From Current Price Level

$505 – Buyers – 1.25:1, -2.94% From Current Price Level – 10 Day Moving Average*

$500 – Buyers – 1.68:1, -3.9% From Current Price Level

$496 – Sellers – 1.4:1, -4.66% From Current Price Level

$492 – Buyers – 2.68:1, -5.43% From Current Price Level – 200 Day Moving Average*

$488 – Buyers – 2.82:1, -6.2% From Current Price Level

$484 – Buyers – 1.21:1, -6.97% From Current Price Level

$480 – Buyers – 2.76:1, -7.74% From Current Price Level

$476 – Sellers – 1.06:1, -8.51% From Current Price Level

$472 – Buyers- 1.04:1, -9.28% From Current Price Level – 50 Day Moving Average*

$468 – Sellers – 2.33:1, – 10.05% From Current Price Level

$464 – Buyers – 5.38:1, -10.82% From Current Price Level

$460 – Buyers – 1.78:1, -11.58% From Current Price Level

$456 – Sellers – 1.11:1, -12.35% From Current Price Level

$452 – Buyers – 2.33:1, -13.12% From Current Price Level

$448 – Sellers – 1.31:1, -13.89% From Current Price Level

$444 – Sellers – 3.47:1, -14.66% From Current Price Level

$440 – Buyers – 3.23:1, -15.43% From Current Price Level

$436 – Buyers – 3.44:1, -16.2% From Current Price Level

$432 – Sellers – 2.13:1, -16.97% From Current Price Level

$428 – Even – 1:1, -17.74% From Current Price Level

$424 – Buyers – 0.7:0*, -18.5% From Current Price Level

$420 – Sellers – 1.46:1, -19.27% From Current Price Level

$416 – Sellers – 2.56:1, -20.04% From Current Price Level

$412 – Sellers – 1.3:0*, -20.81% From Current Price Level

$408 – NULL – 0:0*, -21.58% From Current Price Level

Price Level:Volume Sentiment Analysis For IWM, The iShares Russell 2000 ETF

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF has also recovered a bit from the declines of late-March, but at a more muted pace that SPY or QQQ.

They’re still closer to the bottom of their one year chart & are still lagging their 200 day moving average (long-term trend line), with less support levels on the one year chart than resistance levels.

The small cap index has moved in a similar, but less resilient manner to DIA, but given that the blue chip index is more likely to be bought & held than the small cap index it would be wise to monitor them both independently of one another.

Combining the data below with the past week’s near-to-mid-term horizon for IWM is beneficial for gaining insight into how market participants may behave in the coming weeks-to-months.

$244 – NULL – 0:0*, +16.7% From Current Price Level

$240 – Buyers – 5:1, +14.79% From Current Price Level

$236 – Buyers – 1.23:1, +12.88% From Current Price Level

$232 – Buyers – 1.46:1, +10.96% From Current Price Level

$228 – Buyers – 1.14:1, +9.05% From Current Price Level

$224 – Sellers – 1.16:1, +7.14% From Current Price Level

$220 – Buyers – 1.44:1, +5.22% From Current Price Level

$216 – Buyers – 1.26:1, +3.31% From Current Price Level

$212 – Sellers – 1.33:1, +1.4% From Current Price Level – 200 Day Moving Average*

$208 – Buyers – 1.52:1, -0.52% From Current Price Level – Current Price Level*

$204 – Buyers – 1.16:1, -2.43% From Current Price Level – 10 Day Moving Average*

$200 – Buyers – 1.23:1, -4.34% From Current Price Level

$198 – Sellers – 1.25:1, -5.3% From Current Price Level

$196 – Buyers – 2.17:1, -6.26% From Current Price Level – 50 Day Moving Average*

$194 – Buyers – 1.77:1, -7.21% From Current Price Level

$192 – Buyers – 1.15:1, -8.17% From Current Price Level

$190 – Sellers – 3.77:1, -9.13% From Current Price Level

$188 – Buyers – 1.4:1, -10.08% From Current Price Level

$186 – Buyers – 2.13:1, -11.04% From Current Price Level

$184 – Buyers – 2.33:1, -12% From Current Price Level

$182 – Buyers – 2.18:1, -12.95% From Current Price Level

$180 – Sellers – 1.94:1, -13.91% From Current Price Level

$178 – Sellers – 2.79:1, -14.87% From Current Price Level

$176 – Buyers – 1.73:1, -15.82% From Current Price Level

$174 – Buyers – 1.81:1, -16.78% From Current Price Level

$172 – Sellers – 1.12:1, -17.73% From Current Price Level

$170 – Buyers – 1.92:1, -18.69% From Current Price Level

$168 – Sellers – 1.94:1, -19.65% From Current Price Level

$166 – Sellers – 2.1:1, -20.6% From Current Price Level

$164 – Sellers – 1.1:0*, -21.56% From Current Price Level

$162 – Even – 1:1, -22.52% From Current Price Level

$160 – Buyers – 1.56:1, -23.47% From Current Price Level

$158 – NULL – 0:0*, -24.43% From Current Price Level

Price Level:Volume Sentiment Analysis For DIA, The SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF

DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF has also bounced back from the losses of late-March & early-April.

Volumes though show a more cautious buy & hold approach happening to the blue chip index vs. the other three majors, but any downside catalyst can at this point in time cause that to break down.

With a lot of uncertainty on the horizon, knowing how market participants have behaved in the past is beneficial for understanding how DIA may behave in the future.

$452 – NULL – 0:0*, +5.86% From Current Price Level

$448 – NULL – 0:0*, +4.93% From Current Price Level

$444 – Buyers – 2.67:1, +3.99% From Current Price Level

$440 – Sellers – 1.06:1, +3.05% From Current Price Level

$436 – Buyers – 6.67:1, +2.11% From Current Price Level

$432 – Buyers – 1.5:1, +1.18% From Current Price Level

$428 – Buyers – 1.15:1, +0.24% From Current Price Level

$424 – Buyers – 1.83:1, -0.7% From Current Price Level – Current Price Level*

$420 – Sellers – 1.5:1, -1.63% From Current Price Level – 10 & 200 Day Moving Averages*

$416 – Buyers – 1.7:1, -2.57% From Current Price Level

$412 – Sellers – 4.42:1, -3.51% From Current Price Level

$408 – Buyers – 5.5:1, -4.44% From Current Price Level – 50 Day Moving Average*

$404 – Buyers – 3.17:1, -5.38% From Current Price Level

$400 – Buyers – 1.62:1, -6.32% From Current Price Level

$396 – Sellers – 2.17:1, -7.25% From Current Price Level

$392 – Buyers – 2:1, -8.19% From Current Price Level

$388 – Buyers – 3:1, -9.13% From Current Price Level

$384 – Sellers – 1.44:1, -10.06% From Current Price Level

$380 – Even – 1:1, -11% From Current Price Level

$376 – Sellers – 1.27:1, -11.94% From Current Price Level

$372 – Buyers – 1.38:1, -12.87% From Current Price Level

$368 – Buyers – 1.75:1, -13.81% From Current Price Level

$364 – Buyers – 1.58:1, -14.75% From Current Price Level

$360 – Even – 1:1, -15.68% From Current Price Level

$356 – Buyers – 0.2:0*, -16.62% From Current Price Level

$352 – Buyers – 1.09:1, -17.56% From Current Price Level

$348 – Buyers – 0.3:0*, -18.5% From Current Price Level

$344 – Buyers – 7:1, -19.43% From Current Price Level

$340 – Buyers – 1.08:1, -20.37% From Current Price Level

$336 – Buyers – 1.79:1, -21.31% From Current Price Level

$332 – Buyers – 1.84:1, -22.24% From Current Price Level

$328 – BUyers – 2.18:1, -23.18% From Current Price Level

$324 – Sellers – 1.06:1, -24.12% From Current Price Level

$320 – Buyers – 1.34:1, -25.99% From Current Price Level

$316 – Sellers – 1.5:1, -25.99% From Current Price Level

$312 – Sellers – 1.03:1, -26.93% From Current Price Level

$308 – Sellers – 1.12:1, -27.86% From Current Price Level

$304 – Sellers – 2.63:1, -28.8% From Current Price Level

$300 – Buyers – 1.24:1, -29.74% From Current Price Level

$296 – Sellers – 1.56:1, -30.67% From Current Price Level

$292 – Sellers – 3.14:1, -31.62% From Current Price Level

$288 – Sellers – 1.3:1, -32.55% From Current Price Level

$284 – Sellers – 1.14:1, -33.48% From Current Price Level

$280 – Sellers – 1.57:1, -34.42% From Current Price Level

$276 – Sellers – 6.67:1, -35.36% From Current Price Level

$272 – NULL – 0:0*, -36.3% From Current Price Level

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM OR DIA AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF gained +5.33% last week, while the VIX closed at 17.24, indicating an implied one day move of +/-1.09% & an implied one month move of +/-4.98% for the S&P 500.

Their RSI is just beneath the overbought level & currently sits at 69.34, while their MACD is bullish, but looking overextended following Monday’s gap up session.

Volumes were +24.32% above the prior year’s average level (69,454,000 vs. 55,866,349), which while it sounds like a lot, is still below the levels seen in the years prior, which doesn’t mean we’re out of the woods just yet.

Monday opened the week up on a gap up open that enabled the week to begin above the support of both the 10 & 200 day moving averages.

Monday’s session was also the highest volume of the week & it set the stage for the increased volume mentioned above, but as noted over prior months in our weekly review notes, there will need to be continued elevated levels of volume before this looks like a sustainable uptrend.

This holds especially true given how far market participants were willing to trade SPY during Monday’s session, as noted by the lower shadow that dropped ~1% from the day’s opening price into the window it created.

Tuesday opened on another gap up, this time on weaker volume for the day, and while SPY proceeded to march higher, the upper shadow on the day’s session indicates that there was a bit of profit taking during the session & market participants were not fully at ease with the current price level of SPY.

Wednesday confirmed this, where another gap up open on un-noteworthy volume resulted in a doji candle, indicating that there was a bit of discomfort & indecisiveness in the market, but that participants found temporary equilibrium at the $587.59-.81 range (closing-opening prices, day ended slightly down).

Thursday is really the most important session of the week, as it had the second highest volume & formed a bearish engulfing pattern with Wednesday’s session, while covering a daily range of >1% with little upper/lower shadows.

While the result of the day as an advancing session is certainly bullish & the high volumes confirm it, but they also tell another story, one about profit taking, which if that narrative flakes out & less people are willing to continue to accept risk at this level -2.81% below SPY’s all time high, we will see gains of the week slip away.

Friday the week wound down on a note that did not inspire confidence heading into the weekend, as on the week’s lowest volume SPY opened on a gap up, retraced down into Thursday’s price range, before powering higher to close near the top of the session’s range.

Looking ahead into this upcoming week there are a few focal points to keep in mind.

Firstly, to the upside, SPY has managed to climb over the past week, and is now back within -2.81% from the all-time high price level, but while volume has been better, when compared to previous years’ volume levels (roughly one year ago was much lower, as the volume trend was in serious decline after years of higher levels).

Unless we see increased, sustainable volume levels it will take longer & some more volatility before a base is formed that can be built upon.

Particularly as while the long-term trend line was broken & the 10 day moving average crossed bullishly through it, they now have become important support levels that will more than likely be retested when the gap fills.

While the resistance levels that remain from here for SPY are all Buyer dominated over the past year, it is wise to recall that they are currently including SPY’s most recent 52-week highs, which skewes the data.

Re-tests are likely to dilute the Buyer dominated ratios shown in the table below, which would lead to consolidation or declining outcomes.

The consolidation case revolves on a retest of the $577.04 price level, which would most likely lead to further declines to attempt to close Monday’s window & test the support of the long-term & short-term moving averages (we’ll get into next) & or it will likely involve oscillations around the 10 & 200 day moving averages until we get an upside or downside catalyst.

This week we’ll get some insight into the state of consumers based on earning’s reports from the likes of Home Depot & Target, as well as BJ’s Wholesale & Advanced Auto Parts.

There will also be PMI data coming out along with a slew of Fed speakers to lend insight into the health of the economy.

To the downside, if the $588.72/share level breaks down, we see the $577.04 retest mentioned above, which should that break down we discover whether market participants believe the long-term trend is stronger than SPY’s current price or not.

There is quite a bit of Seller pressure historically to help get SPY into that window created on Monday & once it’s in there it will have to retest both the long & short term trend lines, which will give a real look into how market participants are viewing the state of current & future economic news.

In the event of further declines, using the table below at support levels or specific price levels you’re targeting is worthwile to understand the market sentiment of each price level SPY traded at over the past ~3 years.

SPY has support at the $588.72 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.15:1), $582.40 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2.12:1), $579.17 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.33:1) & $576.41/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.33:1) price levels, with resistance at the $600.67 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.38:1), $605.21 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.5:1), $608.95 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.5:1) & $611.39/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.2:0*) price levels.

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF had the best week of the four majors, advancing +6.88%, mostly due in large part to Monday’s gap up.

Their RSI is in overbought territory following the massive gap up on Monday and sits currently at 71.69, while their MACD is bullish still, but beginning to look overextended.

Volumes were +30.63% above the previous year’s average (48,262,000 vs. 36,945,556), which much like SPY brings reasons for caution heading into a new week.

Monday saw a gap up open above the 200 & 10 day moving averages, which retraced ~1.09% into the window to the $501.48/share level, before rallying to close at $507.85/share.

Tuesday QQQ saw a gap up open on the week’s highest volume, one a session that covered ~1.73% top to bottom, and likely featured a bit of short-term profit taking from eager buyers in the wake of the prior day’s gap up.

Wednesday is where things began to look a little dicey for QQQ, as while volumes dropped day-over-day they weren’t far from Tuesday’s, but the day resulted in a spinning top candle after a gap up, indicating uncertainty & that the bullish sentiment was beginning to wear out.

Thursday’s candle opened lower, but closed higher than Wednesday’s, forming a bullish engulfing pattern, while logging the week’s second highest volume.

While this may be regarded by many to normally be an encouraging sign, the day’s shadows tell a different story.

Firstly, while the $515/share level held up & was not broken through to the downside, the day’s upper shadow signals that there was a bit of profit taking, as prices ran up much higher than they tested to the downside, but the day’s close was only +0.11% day-over-day.

The $515/share level is not a support level, so while sentiment held up there, it is not associated with any trend, and while it should be noted, should not be used in making decisions until other clusters of information emerge.

The high volume therefore is likely more associated with the profit taking shown by the upper shadow, and not the day’s actual advance.

Friday the week ended on another haunting feeling, when a gap up open retraced almost all the way through Thursday’s candle’s real body to the downside, before the day advanced slightly & closed as a hanging man candle.

While that in & of itself is a bearish signal, the fact that it occurred on the week’s second weakest volume is also an indicator that there is still not bullish sentiment abound in the market right now.

Looking into the coming week, QQQ’s upside potential revolves around breaking through the $521.93/share resistance level.

Much like SPY’s resistance levels, QQQ’s are mostly Buyer dominated over the past ~4 years, but there are only 5 resistance levels above Friday’s close, all of which have been prior 52-week highs, so the data is skewed towards Buyers.

This means that we may see the ratios on the table below become more even in the event of a rejected re-test.

Without continued high, advancing volume the upside case is still largely TBD based on how close to the all-time High QQQ is.

The consolidation case is quite similar to SPY’s; $501.48/share is not a support levels, but will be an area to focus on, as if it holds up then the window formed by Monday’s gap up open will be preserved for a while longer, likely waiting to fill until there’s a downside catalyst.

However, give that the 10 & 200 DMA’s are both in near proximity to QQQ’s closing price on Friday, the consolidation case looks awfully similar to SPY’s above, where QQQ’s price oscillates around the long & short-term trend lines waiting for an upside or downside catalyst.

The $493.62/share support levels also looks interesting here, as while there has clearly been a lot of optimism among the Buyers at this price level, given its proximity to the long-term trend line, a breakdown of it will make the 200 DMA appear a bit weaker & make long-term sentiment appear less optimistic.

To the downside, there is a bit of selling pressure in QQQ’s near viscininty, which signals likely weakness for its next two support levels.

However, like the dilution of extreme Buyers near the top, we may see some consolidation in these zones, diluting the Seller pressure levels.

This doesn’t mean that they’re likely to hold up, but should be mentioned as this & the consolidation case do somewhat overlap on it.

If the first four support levels buckle, the 10 day moving average is next at bat, which will give us the market’s view on short-term sentiment.

If it breaks down, expect the 200 DMA’s support to be key in determining whether QQQ can continue to climb higher, or if it’s going to break down & revert back to the long-term trend that we’ve been experiencing since March.

This is especially interesting, as the gap up propelling QQQ higher on the volume levels that it had are not exactly indicative of a major long-term trend change & look a lot like a shorter term squeeze higher.

The table below provides insight into how QQQ may perform when it re-tests it’s near-term support/resistance levels based on the based ~4 years.

QQQ has support at the $513.98 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2.79:1), $510.29 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2.79:1), $507.71 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.25:1) & $501.26/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.65:1) price levels, with resistance at the $521.93 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.53:1), $530.45 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.33:1), $533.03 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.33:1) & $537.48/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 6.67:1) price levels.

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF climbed +4.5% last week, as small caps performed better than blue chips, but were the second worst weekly performing index.

Their RSI is advancing towards overbought conditions & sits currently at 65.89, while their MACD is bullish, but beginning to show signs of weakness after the consolidation period of last week.

Volumes were -4.75% lower than the previous year’s average (28,424,000 vs. 29,841,389), which isn’t particularly noteworthy given the performance of IWM throughout the week & how their volumes have held up over the past year vs. the previous year.

Monday was really the only important day for the small-cap index, gap up open, highest volume of the week, but a major issue given that the day closed lower than it opened, and despite at it’s daily low point losing -1.45% from its opening price, it gained +3.82% day-over-day.

While a ~+4% gap up session is always nice, the consolidation range that the rest of the week was spent in wasn’t difficult to see coming by Monday’s close.

Tuesday opened slightly higher, but closed as a doji candle that closed lower than it opened, which confirmed the cautious sentiment Monday gave.

Additionally, there was a bit of profit taking to the upside on IWM, but not enough actual will among market participants for Tuesday to break Monday’s session’s high.

Wednesday is where the weakness became more evident, as the day opened on a gap down, tested slightly higher, before tanking to close near it’s daily low as market participants were eager to pile out of the pool & take their near-term profits.

Thursday didn’t give much extra confidence, as IWM opened lower, tested down to the $205.39/share price level, before managing to come back & close marginally higher than Wednesday’s open on the lowest volume of the week.

Friday managed to open on a gap higher, before testing the low point of $207.78/share & ending the day up +0.83%, but the week’s chart closed showing some exhaustion for the small cap names.

IWM, much like DIA has been performing quite differently than SPY & QQQ over the past couple of years, a trend that still continues.

The upside scenario for IWM really focuses first on $213.49/share, which contains two resistance touch-points & will act as one of two gatekeepers for the 200 Day Moving Average’s resistance.

This is problematic, as both that level & the next resistance levels of $213.53/share (and the 200 Day Moving Average) are all in a historically Seller dominated price zone.

This makes the long-term trend line across the major indexes appear weaker, as there is far less enthusiasm in small cap names, indicating that there is more “fish chasing” than active investment enthusiasm.

Should the 200 DMA break down & we see sustainable volume levels, then there may be the ability to rally a bit higher temporarily (particularly in the event that there is some buying into the short holiday week next week), as it means the resistance zone of $213-214/share broke down & there is Buyer sentiment above.

Consolidation case here looks like a slow window fill from Monday’s gap up with some oscillating around the 10 DMA while awaiting a catalyst to the upside or downside.

To the downside, the next four support levels are all primarily in favor of the Buyers over the past ~2-3 years, but not at particularly strong ratios, which makes the 50 day moving average’s support level key to watch, before IWM likely finds some relief in the support zone before $195.01-197.05.

Assuming that the window closes, the 10 day moving average will likely also not be particularly strong, which would lead to a breakdown that is shown in that scenario.

The table below can aid in assessing the strength & weakness of support/resistance levels that IWM tests/re-tests in the coming week.

IWM has support at the $209.27 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.48:1), $205.49 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.13:1), $203.64 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.14:1) & $202.46/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.14:1) price levels, with resistance at the $213.49 (2 Touch-Points, Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.4:1), $213.53 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.4:1), $215.22 (200 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.4:1) & $216.24/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.28:1) price levels.

DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF added +3.43% last week, faring the worst of the four majors, but volume indicates that market participants are likely holding DIA component names at the moment.

Their RSI is trending higher following Monday’s gap up open and sits currently at 63.65, while their MACD is still bullish & looks heavily extended following the mid-April rally.

Volumes were -7.42% below the prior year’s average (2,938,000 vs. 3,173,413), which is also an area of concern, as the blue chip index had shown more sustainable week-over-week participation than the other major indexes, but now it seems to be more in “buy & hold” mode.

One key area to note is that on Monday the resistance of the 200 day moving average (long-term trend line) was broken through on the gap up open, but that the candle for the day resulted in a hanging man (bearish).

While the support of the 200 DMA held up, the candle’s lower shadow retraced down -0.44% to just above the long-term trend line & moved forward for an advancing session.

This is important to note, as it was on the week’s second lowest volume, indicating a bit of fluff, or uncertainty that continued to move higher.

Tuesday the window began to fill on a gap down open, tested most of the way through Monday’s candle’s real body, but ultimately sunk to decline for the day, while managing to stay above the support of the 200 day moving average.

Wednesday opened higher, but the song remained the same, except the week’s second highest volume session managed to break down the 200 DMA’s support temporarily, while settling for the day just above it.

Thursday was where the real lack of confidence in DIA became evident, as it opened on a gap down & while it was able to break above the resistance of the 200 day moving average & close for an advance that was above the new support level forming a bullish engulfing pattern, Friday’s follow up was unable to confirm the “bullish signals”.

Friday opened on a gap up, briefly tested near the high/close of Thursday to the downside before breaking out above the $425/share level to close at $426.55/share, but the volume expressed extreme skepticism heading into the weekend, which did not align with Thursday’s sentiment.

DIA’s chart looks like a hybrid between SPY/QQQ’s & IWM’s, as it tightly consolidated after the gap up like IWM did, but the blue chip names have the same strong sentiment that is keeping them above the long-term trend line still after gapping above it on Monday’s open.

To the upside this week, the $429.52 resistance level will be an interesting area to watch, as it resides in a price zone that is historically “Even” between the Buyers & Sellers over the past ~4-5 years, meaning that it will be another long-term trend bellwether like the 200 DMA.

This is especially true given that next higher resistance levels is Buyer oriented & the following is still “NULL”, as it is the current all-time high.

Any run at this level will require a severe uptick in advancing volume that holds sustainable for weeks-to-months.

The consolidation case here revolved around DIA oscillating around its 200 day moving average awaiting an upside or downside catalyst.

Given that the blue chip index seems to be in “buy & hold” mode currently, this is likely what we will see, before a massive swing one way or the other (pending earnings reports/news reports, as noted above).

To the downside, there is a chance of oscillation between the 10 & 200 day moving averages while market participants digest news/earnings & assess their risk tolerance among the blue chip names, but should that break down the chart below will become even more important to understand how strong/weak the coming support levels are.

When you factor in the DIA represents the blue chip names that are sold to investors of all size & that their data below is covering the past ~4-5 years it will paint a stronger picture of not just DIA’s future, but the other major indexes listed above.

DIA has support at the $420.38 (200 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.15:1), $417.13 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.63:1), $416.41 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.63:1) & $412.91/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 3.75:1) price levels, with resistance at the $427.60 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.33:1), $429.52 (Volume Sentiment: Even, 1:1), $447.49 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.3:0*) & $448.27/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

The Week Ahead

Monday morning kicks off with Fed President Williams & Fed President Jefferson each giving speeches at 8:45 am, followed by U.S. Leading Economic Indicators at 10 am.

Target Hospitality reports earnings Monday before the session opens, followed by 8×8, Agilysys & Transcat after the closing bell.

Fed President Barkin speaks Tuesday at 9 am, before Fed President Collins speaks at 9:30 am, Fed President Musalem speaks at 1 pm & Fed President Kugler speaks at 5 pm.

Home Depot, Amer Sports, Bilibili, Eagle Materials, GDS Holdings & Viking Holdings all report earnings before Tuesday’s opening bell, followed by James Hardie, Keysight Technologies, Modine Manufacturing, Palo Alto Networks, Toll Brothers, Viasat & ZTO Express after the session’s closing bell.

Wednesday is relatively quiet, with only Fed President Barkin & Fed Governor Bowman taking part in a Fed Listens event at 12:15 pm.

Target, Canada Goose, Dycom, Lowe’s, Medtronic, TJX, V.F. Corp., Weibo & Wix all report earnings Wednesday morning, followed by Snowflake, Domo, Enersys, LiveRamp, Urban Outfitters & Zoom Communications at the session’s closing bell.

Initial Jobless Claims data comes out Thursday morning at 8:30 am, before S&P Flash U.S. Services PMI & S&P Flash U.S. Manufacturing PMI data come out at 9:45 am, Existing Home Sales Data is released at 10 am & Fed President Williams speaks at 2 pm.

Thursday morning’s earnings calls include Advanced Auto Parts, Analog Devices, ATS Corp., BJ’s Wholesale, Lightspeed, Ralph Lauren & Toronto-Dominion Bank, before Autodesk, Copart, Deckers Outdoor, Intuit, Lions Gate Entertainment, Ross Stores, StepStone Group & Workday after the closing bell.

Friday morning the week winds down with Fed President Schmid speaking at 9:35 am, New Home Sales data at 10 am & Fed Governor Cook speaking at 12 pm.

Booz Allen Hamilton & Buckle both report earnings before Friday’s opening bell.

See you back here next week!

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM OR DIA AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE***

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF gained +2.93% last week, while the VIX closed the week out at 22.68, indicating an implied one day move of +/-1.43% & an implied one month move of +/-6.56%.

Their RSI is trending higher in the wake of last week & sits currently at 59.37, while their MACD is very bullish, but beginning to look a bit overextended, which will be something to keep an eye on heading into this week.

Volumes were +12.4% higher than the prior year’s average level (62,480,000 vs. 55,589,562), which paints an interesting set up to start the new week for a couple of reasons.

Mind you, in previous weeks/months’ notes (minus last week, as there was no note due to a charity event) I’ve mentioned how for there to be any type of uptrend it needs to find sustainable footing & steady advancing volume that is heavier than we’ve seen.

Last week’s volume was indeed higher, but but when we break down the day-over-day price action things aren’t quite spelling “liftoff” just yet.

Starting with Monday, SPY opened on a gap up with low volume that resulted in a high wave doji candle, covering a wide range of prices during the session, but indicating indecision/a point of “equilibrium” based on the opening/closing prices.

SPY was favoring the downside more than the upside based on the size of the day’s lower shadow, which dipped down as low as $545.02/share, indicating that there was still an appetite that low, despite the day opening on a gap up from Friday’s session.

Tuesday also flashed warning signals, as on yet another low volume session the day opened on a gap lower, but that managed to power higher & form a bullish engulfing candle for the day.

Granted, the preceding day was a doji & the volumes were low, but the day covered a wide range of prices making the bullish engulfing pattern inevitable, and the low volume on a wide-range day is not exactly something that screams “confidence” or “excitement” among market participants.

Wednesday also signaled caution, where another daily bullish engulfing candle pattern occurred on the week’s highest volume session, but again there was a twist.

The session opened on a gap down, before it declined down to the $541.52/share price level, which happened to be just above the support of the 10 day moving average.

Prices then climbed higher to flirt with just below the 50 day moving average’s resistance, and only managed to close just above Tuesday’s closing price.

This is where things get interesting, as there was clearly short-term/intra-day profit taking going on based on the volume, and this session covered the widest range of prices of the entire week.

While a high volume bullish engulfing day tends to be a good sign, the rest of the week casts shadows of doubt upon it.

Thursday opened on a gap up that opened above the 50 DMA’s resistance, went higher to $564.07, but ultimately profits were taken & the price was drive to close lower than the open, but still above the 50 DMA’s support.

While this occurred on the second highest volume of the week, the lower close than opening price & shooting star appearance of the day’s candle cast doubt onto how sustainable the move was.

Friday also added an interesting layer of complexity, as the day opened on a gap higher, but was unable to reach the resistance of the 200 day moving average, indicating that the long-term trend is still in tact.

The day closed on the third highest volume of the week as a spinning top candle, indicating that there’s a lot of indecision in the market.

With that, heading into this week there are a few interesting catalysts to watch, including a notable number of earnings reports due out & the FOMC decision/Powell Press Conference Wednesday.

Tuesday’s trade balance data may also be interesting given how much attention has been being paid to the tariff situation recently, but of the three listed events I’d guess earnings will be the most likely catalyst for market movement in any direction.

Looking into next week’s SPY performance, the big story is the long-term trend line & how sturdy it is.

Currently the 200 day moving average is the next resistance level, and it resides in a Buyer dominated zone (1.54:1), along with the next highest resistance level ($573.62).

The most likely way that the long-term trend is broken to the upside will be temporarily & because of a gap up that opens above the 200 DMA’s resistance.

There are a couple of windows to be closed from last week, which will bring the 50 day moving average’s support into question; but unless we get squeezed higher & rally it seems the most likely upside case is oscillation around SPY’s 200 DMA while awaiting a larger upside or downside catalyst.

There’s quite a bit of uncertainty out there still, as mentioned above, and even in the event of a little bit of positive momentum developing, the $575-548.99/share price zones are Seller dominated, which are another reason that there will need to be significant increases in advancing volume for an uptrend to take place & prevail.

The $576.41/share is the upside point of interest if the long-term trend line is broken out above, as the way that market participants greet that resistance level will lend clues into the higher, but also Seller dominated near-term resistance points in an attempt at an uptrend.

Consolidation from where we sit now looks like filling in of the gaps that were just created on Thursday & Friday, before some type of oscillation around the 50 DMA & 200 DMA to the upside while awaiting a similar catalyst, but this will also be dependent on how price moves due to the changes of the 10 day moving average.

To the downside there will also need to be extra attention paid to the large window created on 4/23/2025, as when that fills in the $508.46, $505.48 & $481.80 marks will all become focal points in terms of range on a one year chart.

The table below lends insight into how market participants may behave at all of the retests listed above based on their behavior over the past ~3 years.

SPY has support at the $564.29 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.46:1), $559.86 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.46:1), $558.91 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.46:1) & $556.01/share (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.46:1) price levels, with resistance at the $570.13 (200 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.54:1), $573.62 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.54:1), $576.41 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.33:1) & $579.17/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.33:1) price levels.

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF advanced +3.44% last week, faring the best of the major four index ETFs.

Their RSI is trending higher & is currently at 60.78, while their MACD is bullish, but beginning to show signs of possible over extension following the two gaps at the end of last week.

Volumes were +5.79% higher than the prior year’s average level (38,702,000 vs. 36,584,821), which like SPY, is not sufficient to claim a sustainable uptrend & last week’s performance leaves many questions about the near-term future for QQQ.

QQQ’s week began on a slow note as well, as a low volume session resulted in a high-wave doji, which while the body resided near the top, did not leave market participants with a strong sense of optimism.

The muted optimism based on the low participation was not a great sign, confirmed by Tuesday opening on a gap down lower.

On even lower volume QQQ was able to power higher despite the soft opening, forming a bullish engulfing pattern with Monday’s candle; however it was not convincing.

Wednesday also signaled frailty for QQQ, as the session opened on a gap lower that was near the low end of Monday’s range, broke down below the $465/share level to reach an intraday low of $462.43, before the week’s strongest volume power it higher to temporarily break above the resistance of the 50 day moving average.

QQQ closed just below the 50 DMA, indicating that the medium-term trend line was still serving as a ceiling & dimming the optimism on true market sentiment.

Thursday opened on a gap up, well above the 50 DMA, broke above the $485/share level intraday, before crumbling to close below its opening price level of the day, forming a shooting star candle & signaling that there was still blood in the water.

Friday the week ended on a note confirming this, as despite a gap up open & brief breakout above the 200 day moving average, QQQ sunk lower to close beneath it & as a spinning top candle, indicating indecision among market participants.

Heading into this week the long-term trend line is going to be in focus, as it managed to close the week as a resistance level.

Should QQQ break out above it the $493.62/share level is the next area of interest, as the $496-499.99/share price zone is a Seller dominated one over the past ~2-3 years, which will pose an issue for QQQ as it tries to climb higher.

Again, as has been noted extensively over the past couple of months, this will require an influx in sustainable advancing volume to actually be meaningful & last.

More likely is that we see a consolidation as the windows caused by the end of week gaps close & prices oscillate between the 50 & 200 day moving averages while we await an upside or downside catalyst.

In terms of declines, should the 50 DMA’s support break down during those window closings, all eyes should direct towards the $445/share price level, as that is the low end of the window from mid-April, with next priority going to $427.93, $421.55 & $402.39/share.

In the meantime, the table below is valuable for assessing the strength & weakness of QQQ’s support/resistance levels when they come back for retests in the near-term based on the past ~2-3 years.

QQQ has support at the $483.36 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.3:1), $473.91 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.19:1), $473.41 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.19:1) & $466.60/share (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2:1) price levels, with resistance at the $489.81 (200 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.16:1), $492.96 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.61:1), $493.62 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.61:1) & $498.96/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.4:1) price levels.

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF climbed +3.28% last week, as small caps were the second favorite names by market participants for the week.

Their RSI is also trending higher & currently is 58.41, while their MACD is bullish, but has shown undulations in its histogram, indicating that there is some weakness due to the consolidation range of the past two weeks (sans Thursday & Friday).

Volumes were -9.32% lower than the previous year’s average (27,004,000 vs. 29,778,606), which casts a shadow of doubt onto the weekly gains, as there was limited participation behind the move.

Monday the week opened on low volume for IWM & signaled immediately that there was uncertainty as to which direction the small cap index would go, as the day resulted in a spinning top candle nestled in the high end of their recent consolidation range.

Tuesday produced a bullish engulfing pattern for IWM, but again on very weak volume, indicating that there was still quite a bit of uncertainty, especially given that Monday’s candle was a spinning top.

The length of the session’s lower shadow also signaled that there was still significant downside appetite, almost to as low as the previous day.

Wednesday followed suit with SPY & QQQ, opening on a gap lower, testing down to the support of the 10 day moving average, before powering higher to briefly break out above the $195/share level & close above the day’s open.

While volumes were higher than Monday & Tuesday, they were still muted for the size of the range that the day’s price action covered.

Thursday opened on a gap up, but resulted in a high wave spinning top that closed on the week’s highest volume.

While this means that there is clearly some high range appetite, the profit taking that drove prices lower both early on in the session & after the highs of the day were hit show that there is more of an interest in preserving capital right now in terms of market participants & the small cap index.

Friday the week wound down on an interesting note, as the session opened on a gap higher to just below the resistance of the 50 day moving average, before on the second highest volume of the week breaking out above it to close above the $200/share price level.

This week will be interesting to see how IWM & the 50 DMA interact, given that their 200 DMA is still rather far above them, indicating that the long-term trend looks stable & won’t change for some time.

In terms of an upside move, while it’s not an official resistance level, the $203.33/share level will be an area of interest to see if the scallop can become a cup & handle & take off, or if we see a denial & consolidation.

If it breaks out to the upside, the $209.27/share level will be the next area of interest, due to its proximity to the 200 day moving average’s resistance.

Like SPY & QQQ, there will need to be an influx in advancing volume that remains consistent before anything on this front is considered possibly more than just a brief pump/squeeze.

The consolidation case from Friday’s close involved the Thursday-Friday window being closed & an oscillation around the 50 day moving average while waiting on an upside or downside catalyst, which will become interesting the closer that the 10 day moving average gets to both levels.

In terms of the downside, the 10 DMA’s support will be a key area to watch, as should prices break down & meet the 10 DMA, controlled bleeding will come from IWM oscillating around it while consolidating lower, else, more dramatic declines call into play the two lowest support levels on their one year chart, $180.76 & $171.71/share.

Using the table below will help navigate these retests as it is all volume sentiments from each price level IWM has traded at over the past ~3 years.

IWM has support at the $198.65 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.3:1), $196.56 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2:1), $195.72(Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.47:1) & $195.01/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.47:1) price levels, with resistance at the $202.46 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.14:1), $205.49 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.13:1), $207.39 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.13:1) & $209.27/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.48:1) price levels.

DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF improved +3% for the week, which is interesting given how low their volume was.

Their RSI is trending higher & currently sits at 56.26, while their MACD is beginning to show signs of being over-extended (which history has shown is less important for DIA vs. other indexes).

Volumes were -36.72% lower than the prior year’s average level (2,022,000 vs. 3,195,498), which is showing a severe level of distrust/caution by market participants, given that the bluechip index was the favorite among market participants for so long, regardless of what the other indexes were doing.

Now we’r not seeing that steady buying anymore, but DIA has still proven to be more closely tied to how IWM is trading, but with more advances as it is still seen as a safer haven for money compared to the small cap names.

Monday DIA opened up on ultra-weak volume & closed as a narrow range, high wave spinning top candle, indicating that there was a lot of indecision, pumping & profit taking.

Tuesday featured less volume, but managed to open higher & break above the $405/share level & stay there to close higher, but the limited participation signals that there is a hefty amount of skepticism in the index that was previously the safe haven among the major four indexes.

Wednesday opened in-line with Tuesday’s opening price, tested much lower down to the 10 day moving average, before reversing to trend higher & close out the session as an advance.

Thursday opened on a gap up, tested above the $410/share level, but was swatted back down to below the high of Wednesday to close in a shooting star candle that closed lower than it opened, indicating that there is still a bit of bearishness creeping in, despite the optimistic squeeze higher.

Friday followed the other index ETFs & saw a squeeze pinched higher gap up open for DIA, that managed to break above the resistance of the 50 day moving average & close just above it, but the lowest shadow & proximity away from the long-term trend line is cause for concern.

While the lower shadow can possibly be attributed to profit taking based on it being the second highest volume session of the week, there seems to be other explanations.

DIA has a unique position due to how it has proven resilient when other indexes were consolidating or declining over the past year as times became more volatile.

However, upside case to watch this week is revolving around the 200 day moving average, and whether or not DIA gaps above it, and if so how strongly supported the move is by their volume.

Consolidation case is DIA dips back below the 50 DMA & closes the window from Friday, before oscillating around the 50 DMA waiting for a catalyst one way or the other, and or the bear case.

The bear case here has its target on the 10 day moving average, as it will continue moving higher, and unless folks actually begin jumping out of the pool, there’s still going to be consistent, but muted demand for blue chip names.

When referencing the table below it is wise to keep in mind that DIA has been the most resilient of the four majors, and as a result has a Buyers bias at most price levels from their last ~4-5 years of data for volume sentiment.

If there is a larger reason for folks to jump from the pool then the 10 DMA will certainly break down, but for now it is too ambiguous to tell what may happen.

Regardless, when interpreting the data, read the ratios as “Hotter” or “Colder” compared to one another when seeing a list of multiple Buyer zones in a consecutive series, as from there you can rank the relative strengths of each price level despite being in a swamp of “Buyers”.

DIA has support at the $412.46 (50-Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 3.75:1), $411.96 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.67:1), $408.78 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.67:1) & $407.82/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.17:1) price levels, with resistance at the $413.22 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 3.75:1), $416.73 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.63:1), $419.82 (200 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.63:1) & $427.93/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.33:1) price levels.

The Week Ahead

Monday the week kicks off with S&P Final U.S. Services PMI at 9:45 am, followed by ISM Services at 10 am.

Ares Management, BioCryst Pharma, BioNTech, CNA Financial, Cummins, Freshpet, Henry Schein, Integra, JBT Marel, Ocular Therapeutix, onsemi, Park Hotels & Resorts, Recursion Pharmaceuticals, RLJ Lodging, Twist Bioscience, Tyson Foods & Zimmer Biomet all report earnings before Monday’s opening bell, with Addus HomeCare, Aecom Tech, Air Lease, Ameresco, Atlas Energy Solutions, BellRing Brands, Bright Horizons, BWX Technologies, Cabot, Celanese, Clorox, Corcept Therapeutics, Corebridge Financial, Coterra Energy, Denny’s, Diamondback Energy, Dorman Products, Douglas Dynamics, Ethan Allen, EverQuote, Fabrinet, Ford Motor, Golub Capital, Hims & Hers Health, IAC, ICHOR, Ingevity, Inspire Medical Systems, Interparfums, JELD-WEN, Kilroy Realty, Lattice Semi, Limbach, LTC Properties, Matson, Mattel, Mueller Water, National Health, National Storage Affiliates, Navitas Semiconductor, Neurocrine Biosciences, New Mountain Finance, NJ Resources, ONE Gas, Otter Tail Power, Palantir Technologies, Palomar Holdings, Paymentus, Playa Hotels & Resorts, PRA Group, Primoris Services, Realty Income, Regal Rexnord, Relay Therapeutics, Sabra Health Care REIT, Sun Communities, Syndax Pharmaceuticals, Talos Energy, Tidewater, Titan America, Upwork, V2X, Vertex Pharma, Vimeo, Viper Energy Partners, Vornado Realty Trust & Williams Cos. all reporting after the closing bell.

U.S. Trade Deficit data is released on Tuesday at 8:30 am.

Tuesday morning’s earnings reports include AdaptHealth, ADM, American Electric, Aramark, Array Tech, Atkore International, Avanos Medical, Avient, Axcelis Tech, Ball Corp, CCC Intelligent Solutions, Colliers, Constellation Energy, Cormedix, Datadog, DigitalOcean, Driven Brands, Ducommun, Duke Energy, Embraer, Energizer, Enpro, EVgo, Ferrari, Fidelity National Info, First Watch Restaurant Group, Gartner, Genius Sports, Global Payments, GlobalFoundries, Harmony Biosciences, Ingredion, IPG Photonics, IQVIA, Jacobs Solutions, KBR, Knife River, Kontoor Brands, Krystal Biotech, Kulicke & Soffa, LCI Industries, Lear, Leidos, Lemonade, Louisiana-Pacific, Marathon Petroleum, Marriott, MFA Financial, MPLX LP, Northwest Natural, Novanta, Omnicell, Peabody Energy, Pediatrix Medical Group, Philips, Portillo’s, Premier, Sealed Air, Shoals Technologies, SolarEdge Technologies, Sunoco LP, Sunstone Hotel, TopBuild, Transdigm Group, TreeHouse Foods, UBS, UL Solutions, Uniti Group, Waters, WEC Energy Group, WK Kellogg, Xometry, XPEL & Zoetis, with Advanced Micro Devices, Agilon Health, Allegiant Travel, Amentum Holdings, American Financial, Andersons, Arcosa, Arcus Biosciences, Arista Networks, Assurant, Astera Labs, AZEK, BlackLine, Cadre Holdings, California Resources, Chemours, Chord Energy, Cirrus Logic, Corpay, Corsair Gaming, Coty, Coupang, Cytokinetics, Devon Energy, DHT, Douglas Emmett, Electronic Arts, Energy Transfer, eXp World Holdings, Flywire, Fortune Brands Innovations, Gen Digital, Grand Canyon Education, Grocery Outlet, Halozyme Therapeutics, Helios Technologies, Horace Mann, Innovex International, Intapp, International Flavors, Jack Henry, Jamf Holding, Jazz Pharma, Kinross Gold, Klaviyo, Lucid Group, Lumentum, Manitowoc, Maravai Life Sciences, Masimo, Mercury, Mosaic, MRC Global, NerdWallet, Ovintiv, Par Pacific, Powell Industries, PTC Therapeutics, Qualys, Redfin, Resideo, Revolve Group, Rivian Automotive, Sarepta Therapeutics, Select Water Solutions, Supernus Pharma, Tempus AI, Teradata, The Baldwin Group, Upstart, Varonis Systems, Vestis, Voya Financial, VSE Corp & Wynn Resorts all due to report after the session’s closing bell.

Wednesday features the FOMC Meeting at 2pm, Chair Powell’s Press Conference at 2:30 pm, & Consumer Credit data at 3pm.

Walt Disney, Acushnet, Adient, Ardmore Shipping, ATS, AvidXchange, Avista, Axalta Coating Systems, Azenta, Bandwidth, Barrick, BeiGene, Bentley Systems, Bio-Techne, Bloomin’ Brands, BorgWarner, Bruker, Bunge, CDW, Cencora, Centuri Holdings, Ceva, Charles River, Conduent, Dayforce, Delek US Holdings, Dine Brands, DNOW, Edgewell Personal Care, Elanco Animal Health, Emerson, Entegris, Fiverr, Flex, Fortis, Geo Group, Geron, Hain Celestial, HNI, Johnson Controls, Jones Lang LaSalle, Kennametal, Lantheus Holdings, LifeStance Health Group, LivaNova, Magnera, MarketAxess, MasterCraft, Middleby, National Vision, New York Times, NiSource, ODP, Oscar Health, Owens Corning, Pagaya, Payoneer, Performance Food Group, Perrigo, Rhythm Pharmaceuticals, Rockwell Automation, RXO, Sabre, Shopify, Southwest Gas, Steve Madden, Taboola, Teva Pharma, TPG, Trimble, TripAdvisor, Uber, Unity Software, Verisk Analytics & Vertex all report earnings before Wednesday’s opening bell, followed by ACADIA Pharmaceuticals, ACV Auctions, ADTRAN, Alpha and Omega Semi, AMC Entertainment, Amdocs, American States Water, Amplitude, APA, AppLovin, Arm Holdings, Atmos Energy, Avis Budget, Axon, B&G Foods, B2Gold, Barrett Business, Beyond Meat, Black Hills, Blue Bird, Brighthouse Financial, BrightView, Bumble, Carvana, Centrus Energy, CF Industries, Chesapeake Utilities, Civitas Resources, Cleveland-Cliffs, Coeur Mining, Coherent, Compass Materials, Concentra, Copa Holdings, Core Scientific, CoreCivic, Corteva, Crane NXT, CSG Systems, Curtiss-Wright, Digi International, DoorDash, Dutch Bros, Encore Capital, Energy Recovery, EPR Properties, Esco Tech, Establishment Labs, EVERTEC, Evolus, Excelerate Energy, Fastly, Fidelity National, Fluence, Flutter Entertainment, Fortinet, Forward Air, FS KKR Capital, Genco Shipping & Trading, Genpact, GoodRx, GXO Logistics, H&R Block, Houlihan Lokey, Howard Hughes Holdings, Informatica, Innovative Industrial Properties, IonQ, Jackson Financial, Joby Aviation, Kinetik, Kodiak Gas Services, Kratos Defense and Security, Kyndryl, LandBridge, LegalZoom, Light & Wonder, Magnite, Manulife Financial, Marqeta, Marriott Vacations, MKS Instruments, Murphy Oil, Murphy USA, NCR Atleos, Occidental Petroleum, OPENLANE, Orion Engineered Carbons, Ormat Technologies, Pan Am Silver, Paycom Software, Permian Resources, Pitney Bowes, Primerica, Q2 Holdings, Qiagen, QuidelOrtho, QuinStreet, Radware, RB Global, Remitly Global, Root, Royal Gold, RxSight, Schrodinger, Sinclair Broadcast, SiTime, Sitio Royalties, Skyworks, Sonos, STAAR Surgical, Suncor Energy, Sunrun, Symbotic, Tetra Tech, U.S. Physical Therapy, UGI, Veeco Instruments, Veracyte, Verra Mobility, Vishay, Watts Water Technologies, Western Midstream & Zillow after the closing bell.

Initial Jobless Claims & U.S. Productivity data are released on Friday at 8:30 am, before Wholesale Inventories data comes out at 10 am.

Thursday morning’s earnings reports include ACI Worldwide, ACM Research, Alight, Allegro Microsystems, Allete, Altice USA, Americold Realty Trust, Appian, Aspen Aerogels, Autohome, BCE, BigCommerce, Canada Goose, Cars.com, Cheniere Energy, Choice Hotels, Clear Secure, Cogent Communications, ConocoPhillips, Core Natural Resources, Crocs, Enovis, EPAM Systems, Evergy, First Advantage, Genesis Energy LP, Gray Media, Green Plains, Haemonetics, Hanesbrands, Insmed, Installed Building Products, International Seaways, Janus International Group, Kenvue, Kimbell Royalty Partners, Krispy Kreme, Lamar Advertising, Life Time, Ligand Pharmaceuticals, Lincoln National, MACOM Tech, Malibu Boats, Match Group, MAXIMUS, MDU Resources, Millicom International Cellular, Molson Coors Brewing, N-able, NCR Voyix, NetScout Systems, Nexstar, Nomad Foods, Nova Measuring, Nutrien, Olaplex, Papa John’s, Peloton, PENN Entertainment, Planet Fitness, Playtika, Prestige Consumer, Primo Brands, Privia Health, Restaurant Brands International, Sapiens, ScanSource, Sempra Energy, SharkNinja, Six Flags Entertainment, Somnigroup International, Spectrum Brands, Stagwell, Stevanato Group, Stratasys, Tapestry, Tecnoglass, TEGNA, US Foods, Valvoline, Vericel, Viatris, Vital Farms, Warby Parker, Warner Bros. Discovery, Warner Music Group, Wolverine & YETI Holdings, with Coinbase Global, 1-800-FLOWERS, 10x Genomics, Adtalem Global Education, Affirm, Akamai Technologies, Alarm.com, Alliant Energy, American Healthcare REIT, AMN Healthcare, Applied Optoelectronics, Arlo Technologies, Assured Guaranty, Astrana Health, AvePoint, Barings, Bill.com, CarGurus, Clean Energy Fuels, Cloudflare, Collegium Pharmaceutical, Crinetics Pharmaceuticals, Definitive Healthcare, Diodes, DoubleVerify, DraftKings, Dropbox, EverCommerce, Evolent Health, Expedia Group, Federal Realty Investment Trust, FIGS, Fox Factory Holding, Franco-Nevada, Funko, Globus Medical, Green Dot, Hub Group, HubSpot, ICU Medical, Illumina, Innodata, Innospec, Insulet, JFrog, Lions Gate Entertainment, LPL Financial, Lyft, MARA Holdings, McKesson, Metallus, Microchip, Mitek Systems, MP Materials, News, nLIGHT, Olo, OneStream, Onto Innovation, OUTFRONT Media, Pacira BioSciences, Paramount Global, Pinterest, Post, Progyny, PubMatic, Rackspace Technology, RingCentral, Rocket Companies, Rocket Lab USA, Sensata Technologies, Solventum, SoundHound AI, Sprout Social, Sweetgreen, Synaptics, Texas Roadhouse, The Trade Desk, TKO Group Holdings, Toast, TransMedics Group, Treace Medical Concepts, Trex, Varex Imaging, Victory Capital, Westrock Coffee Company, Wolfspeed, Xponential Fitness, YELP, Ziff Davis, ZipRecruiter & Zymeworks all reporting after the session’s closing bell.

Friday the week winds down with Fed Governor Barr speaking at 6:45 am, Fed Governor Kugler speaking at 8:30 am, Fed Governor Waller & Fed President Williams on a panel at 11:30 am, Fed Governor Cook speaking at 6:45 pm & Fed Governor Bowman, Fed President Musalem & Fed President Hammack speaking on a panel at 7:45 pm.

Algonquin Power & Utilities, Alpha Metallurgical Resources, AMC Networks, ANI Pharmaceuticals, Calumet Specialty Products, Construction Partners, Embecta, Enbridge, Essent Group, Gogo, Hawaiian Electric, Koppers Holdings, Kymera Therapeutics, PAR Technology, Pembina Pipeline, Plains All American, Starwood Property Trust, Sun Life, Sylvamo, TeraWulf & TXNM Energy all report earnings before Friday morning’s opening bell.

See you back here next week!

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM OR DIA AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***