Author: OptimizedValue

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF advanced +0.46% over the past week, trailing only the Dow Jones Industrial Average in terms of weekly performance by an index.

Their RSI is trending away from the neutral 50 mark & sits at 46.43, while their MACD remains bullish but is beginning to curl over bearishly, with a bearish crossover to be expected in the next few sessions.

Volumes were +2.58% above average last week compared to the year prior (85,155,567 vs. 83,016,788), which does not serve much in the way of tell-tales, however, the declining days’ volumes each outnumber the volumes on the advancing days, indicating that risk off sentiment is creeping in (or at the bare minimum, aggressive short-term profit taking).

Monday kicked off with the 10 Day Moving Average providing support for the opening price & pushing it higher for the next two days, however it is worth noting that volume faded beyond the first day of advances.

Wednesday’s hanging man candlestick set the tone for the end of the week’s declining sessions, but Friday’s risk off declining day was supported by the 10 DMA still, which will be an area of interest in the coming week, particularly as the 50 DMA begins to apply downwards pressure on SPY.

Their Average True Range (ATR) is reverting towards the mean after the last two days of decline, which indicates that there will be more bearish sentiment in the near-term & investors should be cautious.

Once the support of the 10 DMA is broken, all eyes should revert to the 200 DMA, as it will be closing in on the share price from below & support levels in this range are sparse over the past year.

If the 200 DMA is broken, the $413-414/share zone will be the major area of interest to be watching in case of further declines.

SPY has support at the $431.49 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.1:1), $429.59 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.1:1), $420.18 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.04:1) & $418.48/share (200 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.49:1) price levels, with resistance at the $437.33 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.17:1), $438.54 (50 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.17:1), $452.08 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.25:1) & $457.82 /share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.07:1) price levels.

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF inched forward +0.16% this past week, as market participants were not interested in the riskier, tech-heavy names.

Their RSI is downtrending & about to pass through the neutral 50 mark bearishly, currently at 50.19, while their MACD is poised to roll over bearishly & bearishly crossover by mid-week.

Volumes were -5.06% below average last week compared to the year prior’s average (51,250,950 vs. 53, 981,234), indicating that there is less investor sentiment for NASDAQ names than average & enthusiasm is waning.

However, much like SPY, volumes were heavier on the declining days of Thursday & Friday than on the advancing days earlier in the week.

Monday was supported by the 10 day moving average, which led to Tuesday breaking above the resistance of the 50 DMA.

Wednesday’s hanging man set up the following two days of declines, and now all eyes are on the 10 DMA, as it is the closest support level.

Should that break down, there looks to be more trouble on the horizon, as their ATR looks primed to normalize more with further declines in the coming days.

QQQ has support at the $364.09 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.1:1 ), $358.06 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2.57:1), $357.07 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2.57:1) & $351.36/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.03:1) price levels, with resistance at the $366.68 (50 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.1:1), $371.80 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 8.2:1), $373.74 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 4.25:1) & $380.28/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.41:1) price levels.

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF declined -1.58% last week & was the only major index that ended in the red for the week.

Their RSI is trending back towards oversold levels at 33.43, with a MACD that is going to make a bearish crossover in the next day or two.

Volumes were +18.59% above average last week compared to the year prior (33,410,783 vs. 28,172,563) as investors were looking to take profits off of the table after the recent run up that began in early October.

Wednesday’s spinning top candlestick on a bearish day set the tone for the end of the week, with Thursday’s session shattering the 10 DMA’s support & Friday’s decline day not even testing the resistance level it set.

Their ATR suggests that there may be a brief consolidation in the coming days, but the other indicators are suggesting further declines.

IWM has support at the $169.09 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.6:1), $168.49 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.6:1), $168.46 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.6:1) & $167.53/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 4.1:1) price levels, with resistance at the $171.08 (Volume Sentiment: Even, 1:1), $171.25 (Volume Sentiment: Even, 1:1), $171.39 (Volume Sentiment: Even, 1:1) & $172.84/share (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.9:1) price levels.

DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF gained +0.77% over the past week, as investors flocked into the larger cap names while seeking some form of stability & safety without becoming completely risk-off.

Their RSI is just below the neutral mark of 50 at 45.19, while their MACD is bullish, but clearly losing steam & looks set to bearishly crossover within the coming week.

Volumes were +7% above average last week compared to the year prior (3,876,233 vs. 3,622,649), which is notable as they highest volume day was Friday, when most folks were taking risk off & the day was an advancing session, despite ending in a spinning top candlestick that while being a positive day, ended lower than the opening price (bearish implications).

Tuesday’s session was able to find support, but the spinning top candlestick that closed lower than it opened signaled that there was pain to come, which Wednesday’s lower close than open dragonfly doji candle confirmed.

Thursday’s decline broke the 200 Day Moving Average’s support, but the 10 DMA held it up & Friday closed just above the 200 DMA, but on a spinning top that closed lower than it opened, indicating uncertainty & impending declines.

Their ATR suggests that by mid-week there will be more declines & the support of the 10 & 200 DMA’s will be tested.

DIA has support at the $335.68 (200 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.18:1), $334.48 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.18:1), $331.94 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.02:1) & $329/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.02:1) price levels, with resistance at the $338.38 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.32:1), $338.71 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.32:1), $339.42/339.45 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.32:1) & $342.27/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.46:1) price levels.

Oil & Gas Production & Exploration (GUSH), Japan (DXJ), Turkey (TUR) & North American Natural Resources (IGE) Are All Bullishly Leading The Market

GUSH, the Direxion Daily S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Bull 2x Shares ETF has climbed +10.92% over the past year, gaining +59.13% since their 52-week low in March of 2023 (ex-distributions & using the Adjusted Closing Prices).

Their RSI is just above neutral trending north towards overbought levels at 55.35 & their MACD is bullish after completing a crossover recently.

Volumes were -21.39% below average last week compared to the year prior (1,337,800 vs. 1,701,814), signaling that investor enthusiasm is waning for GUSH.

Monday’s gap up session was the strongest volume of the week, but indecision began to show itself on Tuesday when the trading day resulted in a doji candlestick.

Wednesday showed weakness as the day began with a decline, tested lower (briefly dipping beneath the support of the 10 day moving average, but was able to close higher than it opened, while Thursday showed more weakness as the day ended in a decline.

Thursday was able to test higher than Wednesday & its open & closing price range were concentrated towards the upper end of the candlestick, which set the stage for Friday’s gap up that broke the resistance of the 50 DMA, but ultimately investors continued to signal indecision as the day resulted in a spinning top candlestick heading into the weekend.

Their Average True Range is reverting back to its mean & may be able to add in some brief strength, but by the end of the week most of the higher price level concentration will leave the calculation, and likely will result in declines.

While GUSH offers a 1.97% distribution yield, that is limited protection against declines in the near future & profit taking or hedging strategies using options such as buying puts or selling calls is something worth considering.

GUSH has support at the $38.68 (50 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.06:1), $37.54/37.53 (Volume Sentiment: Even, 1:1), $37.46 (Volume Sentiment: Even, 1:1) & $37.28/share (Volume Sentiment: Even, 1:1) price levels, with resistance at the $40.77 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.28:1), $40.89 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.28:1), $41.10 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 4.24:1) & $41.65/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 4.24:1) price levels.

DXJ, the WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity Fund ETF has advanced +42.62% over the past year, adding +37.8% to their price since their 52-week low in October of 2022 (ex-distributions).

Their RSI is just below the neutral mark at 48.2, while their MACD is bearish but trying to advance towards a bullish crossover.

Volumes were 62.69% above average last week compared to the year prior (791,150 vs. 486,299), which has negative implications as their highest volume day for the week was a risk off Friday.

Monday kicked off on an indecisive note as the day resulted in a spinning top, followed by a gap up shooting star candlestick on Tuesday that was able to break above the resistance of the 10 & 50 day moving averages, but was still a bearish signal in the near-term.

Wednesday was another spinning top, as market participants were unsure of DXJ’s value & the price action was relatively contained in the day prior’s price range.

Thursday the bulls took over, forcing a gap up open that resulted in a black filled candle as the day closed below the open, despite opening sharply higher, in another sign that there is still heavily bearish sentiment.

Friday’s gap down confirmed this, although the support levels provided by the crossing 10 DMA through the 50 DMA (bearishly) held up & went untested throughout the day & will be an interesting area to watch this week.

Their Average True Range may be forming a head & shoulders type pattern, which would mean it would revert to the mean, and given where price levels are in the ATR calculation, further declines appear to be on the horizon in the near-term due to the volatile swings lower in the days that will remain in the calculation.

This is also confirmed by the bearish head & shoulders pattern that recent formed around their 52-week high in mid-September, as it appears that many investors have been taking profits off of the table over the past month.

A 2.58% distribution yield is a decent cushion against near-term losses for DXJ holders, but the impending volatility looks like it may be a good time to begin looking at hedging options on open positions.

DXJ has support at the $86.70 (50 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0), $86.52 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $85.59 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2:1) & $85.55/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2:1) price levels, with resistance at the $88.85 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $92.01/share (52 Week High; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

TUR, the iShares MSCI Turkey ETF has climbed +56.03% over the past year, adding +50.67% since their 52-week low in October of 2022 (ex-distributions).

Their RSI is trending bearishly at 45.76 & their MACD is in bearish decline following their performance over the past week & a half.

Volumes were -69.68% below average last week compared to the year prior (92,100 vs. 303,732) which is a sign of investors’ waning sentiment, particularly when you realize that the sole bullish day of the week was also the lowest volume day as market participants began to take profits following their recent run up to new 52-week highs.

Monday started the week off on a solemn note for TUR, with their price dipping below the previous support of the 10 day moving average & hardly testing it during the day’s session, foreshadowing the weakness to come during the week.

Tuesday was able to break above the 10 DMA’s resistance, & tried making a break higher, but closed well below the highest price of the day & resulted in a shooting star candlestick, a bearish omen.

Wednesday the declines continued, with the day looking very similar to Monday in terms of being unable to break the 10 DMA’s resistance, however they did not trade as low as they did on Monday.

Thursday’s gap down hammer candle became cause for near-term future concern as well, as while the day’s open/close were concentrated near the top of the candle, the lower shadow covered a wide trading range & broke below the 50 DMA, signaling that there is likely more weakness to come, which was confirmed in Friday’s session.

Friday’s spinning top broke below the support of the 50 DMA as investors ran towards the door in risk-off fashion before the weekend, with the candle’s real body being concentrated towards the lower end of the candlestick, showing that investors are feeling uneasy about TUR’s near-term prospects & hinting at more declines to come.

Given that they’ve broken the support of the 50 DMA & their ATR & RSI are both in relatively neutral positions, there appears to be room for declines on the horizon for TUR before oscillators signal that things have sold off too far.

Despite having a 3.36% distribution yield, given their proximity to their 52-week high, it would be a wise time to plot out hedging strategies for TUR.

TUR has support at the $37.06 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 5:1), $36.91 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.14:1), $36.14 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.14:1) & $35.94/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.42:1) price levels, with resistance at the $37.38 (50 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 5:1), $38.69 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.25:1), $39.50 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $39.76/share (52-Week High; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

IGE, the iShares North American Natural Resources ETF climbed +14.73% over the past year, improving +16.18% since their 52-week low in March of 2023 (ex-distributions).

Their RSI is just above the neutral mark at 53.71 & their MACD recently had a bullish crossover a couple of days ago.

Volumes were -43.49% below average last week compared to the year prior (92,150 vs. 163,078), signaling that there is beginning to be a severe lack of enthusiasm for IGE by market participants, with the declining days leading the advancing days last week in terms of daily volume.

Monday kicked off with a major gap up where the day was able to close above the resistance of the 10 day moving average, but while Tuesday continued the climb, indecision & skittishness began to show through, as the upper shadow of the day’s candle was able to break the 50 DMA’s resistance, but the real body of the spinning top settled near the middle of the candle, signaling that investors are not confident.

Wednesday’s bearish hammer candle’s lower shadow tested the support of the 10 DMA & was able to temporarily break below it in a sign of weakness, & Thursday’s lower shadow was able to use it as support, but was unable to break & stay above the resistance of the 50 DMA.

While Friday’s spinning top was able to rest atop the 50 DMA as a support level, it signals that there is still much uncertainty about IGE in the eye’s of market participants.

Their ATR is currently reverting back to its mean, but by Thursday the days included in the calculation will be below Friday’s price & volatile, which signals more near-term unrest for IGE’s share price is on the horizon.

Despite offering a 2.83% distribution yield to long-term shareholders, there appears to be a bearish head & shoulders pattern forming with the head being the 52-week high & prices are nearing the left shoulder’s price level, making it important to have a hedging strategy in place.

IGE has support at the $41.45 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.11:1), $41.37 (50 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.11:1), $40.75 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.11:1) & $40.57/40.56/share (10 Day Moving Average; 2 Touch-points; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.11:1) price levels, with resistance at the $42.17 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2:1), $42.62 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2:1), $42.74 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2:1) & $43.04/share (52-Week High; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

Europe (EURL), China (CHAU), Junior Gold Miners (JNUG) & Chile (ECH) Are All Bearishly Lagging The Market

EURL, the Direxion Daily FTSE Europe Bull 3x Shares ETF has advanced +72.45% over the past year, gaining +68.09% since their 52-week low in October of 2022, but has recently been in a major decline, losing -29.84% since their 52-week high in May of 2023 (ex-distributions).

Their RSI is trending downwards towards the oversold end of neutral at 41.75, with a MACD that is still bullish, but beginning to curl over bearishly following the last few sessions.

Volumes were -24.11% below average last week compared to the year prior (23,316 vs. 30,725), but there was a glimmer of hope flashed as their bullish days had better volume than their bearish days.

However that seems to have faded quickly as the slide into the weekend more than covered the window created by Tuesday’s gap up & was only saved from falling further by the support of the 10 day moving average.

Their ATR suggests that we may see a brief consolidation period in the coming week, but with only a 2.9% distribution yield & an impending bearish MACD crossover, it would be wise to examine hedging strategies for open positions.

EURL has support at the $17.33 (10 Day Moving Average & Closing Price Friday; Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.5:1), $17.17 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.5:1), $16.96 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.27:1) & $16.65/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.27:1) price levels, with resistance at the $17.96 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.05:1), $18.56 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2.31:1), $18.62 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2.31:1) & $18.64/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2.31:1) price levels.

CHAU, the Direxion Daily CSI 300 China A Shares Bull 3x Shares ETF has lost -14.9% over the past year, adding +4.05% since their 52-week low in October of 2022, but dropping -41.2% since their 52-week high in January of 2023 (ex-distributions).

Their RSI is trending towards the oversold end of the neutral range at 40.38 & their MACD is still slightly hanging on to being bullish, but fading out after last week’s trading performance.

Volumes were -37.91% below average last week compared to the year prior (43,583 vs. 70,198), as investor sentiment is souring on CHAU & Wednesday’s spinning top closed lower than it’s open despite being a bullish day while having the week’s highest volumes, signaling weariness among market participants.

Monday kicked the week off with a hanging man, where the open was balanced atop the support of the 10 day moving average, which held up through Wednesday, where a minor gap up resulted in a spinning top that closed lower than it opened, signaling bearishness.

The high volume of that day is particularly concerning, as it led into two consecutive days of declines going into the weekend.

Thursday broke down through the support of the 10 day moving average & Friday’s bearish gap down signaled more bearishness is on the horizon as it moved further away from the resistance of the 10 DMA.

While their ATR suggests that there may be a brief consolidation on the horizon, counting back the days in the calculation it is evident it will last a week at most, as the price levels after that support more further declines & volatility.

While their 2.51% distribution yield will provide some cushion against losses, CHAU shareholders may want to be thinking more about hedging strategies & unloading shares in the coming days before the further declines continue.

CHAU has support at the $15.43 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2:0*) & $14.72/share (52-Week Low; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels, with resistance at the $15.68 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 11:1), $15.86 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 11:1), $15.95 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 11:1) & $16.27/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 3.55:1) price levels.

JNUG, the Direxion Daily Junior Gold Miners Bull 2x Shares ETF has advanced +21.6% over the past year, including a +22.58% gain since their 52-week low in October of 2023, but has declined -45.86% since their 52-week high in April of 2023 (ex-distributions).

Their RSI has just broken across the neutral 50 mark & sits at 52.74, while their MACD remains climbing bullishly, as they may become a safe haven for market participants during heightened volatility.

Volumes were +56.72% above average last week compared to the year prior (2,399,383 vs. 1,530,961), mostly on the buying side days, which is also a bullish signal, or at least a much more positive signal than most of the volumes that have been looked at in this article.

Monday’s gap up over the resistance of the 10 DMA set the stage for the rest of the week, with Tuesday also advancing, before a bullish doji on Wednesday began to cast shadows of doubt onto their near-term future.

Sure enough, Thursday featured a down day that had a large price range, but it was supported by the 10 DMA & led into Friday’s advancing day.

Of note regarding Friday’s session, it was the highest volume day of the week & going into the weekend, which appears to be a sign of strength, but note that the open-to-close range of the candle’s real body is heavily concentrated on the lower half, and their large upper shadow signals that while there was interest in higher price levels, it was short lived & prices ultimately settled lower.

JNUG offers a 1.53% distribution yield which offers a small amount of cushion against losses in the near-term.

However, their ATR is suggesting that there may be more gains on the horizon (barring a broad market sell off), as it is reverting back towards its mean during the week of advances, but it would be wise to keep a close eye on its performance in the coming weeks in relation to the ATR for further clues into where it may head next.

JNUG has support at the $27.20 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.8:0*), $22.78 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $22.76 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $22.68/share (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels, with resistance at the $28.25 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.44:1), $28.45 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.44:1), $28.53 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.44:1) & $28.80/share (50 Day Moving Average; Two Touch-points; Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.44:1) price levels.

ECH, the iShares MSCI Chile Capped ETF has added +14.97% over the past year, gaining +7.92% since their 52-week low in October of 2022, but has lost -22.24% since their 52-week high in July of 2023 (ex-distributions).

Their RSI is trending back towards oversold conditions at 36.99, while their MACD is bullish, but showing signals of near-term weakness that may result in a bearish crossover in the next few days.

Volumes were -33.65% below average last week compared to the year prior (453,533 vs. 683,568), which signals weakness in the gains they had on Tuesday & Wednesday last week, as although those days combined for slightly more bullish volume than the Thursday & Friday declines, Monday was also a bearish day & the sentiment is negative in the near-term.

Keep an eye on the 10 DMA this week, as prices have been fluctuating around it looking to find support, but seeming to not be firmly decided upon it becoming resistance, which will be a good indication of where ECH will be heading next.

Their ATR suggests that there is a chance of seeing a brief consolidation period, but other indicators suggest that may not occur until more declines take place & while their 7.45% distribution yield provides lots of room for a cushion against declines, it does not warrant taking that much risk & a wait & see approach with planned hedges seems wisest in this market setting.

ECH has support at the $24.20 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.16:1), $24.13 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.16:1), $24 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.16:1) & $23.44/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.02:1) price levels, with resistance at the $24.93 (10 Day Moving Average & Current Price Level; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.16:1), $25.48 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.16:1), $25.56 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.16:1) & $26.06/$26.07/share (2 Touch-points; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.14:1) price levels.

The Week Ahead

Monday kicks off with the Empire State Manufacturing Survey at 8:30 am, followed by Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker speaking at 10:30 am & again at 4:30 pm.

Charles Schwab & Equity Lifestyle Properties are scheduled to report earnings on Monday.

Tuesday we get U.S. Retail Sales & Retail Sales Minus Autos data at 8:30 am, followed by Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization data at 9:15 am, Business Inventories & Homebuilder Confidence Index data at 10 am & Fed Speaker Bowman & Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari speaking at 10:30 am, & the day winds down with Richmond Fed President Tom Barking speaking at 10:45 am.

Tuesday’s earnings calls will be busy, with Johnson & Johnson, Albertsons, Bank of America, Bank of New York Mellon, Fulton Financial, Goldman Sachs, Hancock Whitney, Interactive Brokers, J.B. Hunt Transportation Services, Lockheed Martin, Pinnacle Financial Partners, Prologis, United Airlines & Wintrust Financial all scheduled to report.

Housing Starts & Building Permits data are released Wednesday at 8:30 am, followed by Fed Governor Chris Waller speaking at 12 pm, New York Fed President John Williams speaking at 12:30 pm, the Fed Beige Book released at 2 pm & wrapped up by Fed Governor Lisa Cook speaking at 6:55 pm.

Netflix, Tesla, Abbot Labs, Alcoa, Ally Financial, ASML, Citizens Financial Group, Crown Castle, Discover Financial Services, Equifax, F.N.B. Corp., First Horizon, Kinder Morgan, Lam Research, Las Vegas Sands, M&T Bank, Morgan Stanley, NASDAQ, Northern Trust, PPG Industries, Procter & Gamble, Rexford Industrial Realty, SL Green Realty, State Street, Steel Dynamics, Travelers, U.S. Bancorp, Winnebago & Zions Bancorp are all scheduled to report earnings on Wednesday.

Thursday will be a busy day, starting with Initial Jobless Claims & the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey data at 8:30 am, followed by Existing Home Sales & U.S. Leading Economic Indicators data reported at 10 am, before Fed Chairman Jerome Powell speaks at 12 pm & a number of other Fed members speaking throughout the rest of the afternoon (this seems interesting/worth keeping an ear open for).

Thursday’s earnings calls include Alaska Air, American Airlines, AT&T, Badger Meter, Blackstone, CSX, Fifth Third, Freeport-McMoRan, Genuine Parts, Intuitive Surgical, KeyCorp, Knight-Swift Transportation, Lindsay Corp, Manpower, Marsh McLennan, Phillip Morris International, Pool, Snap-On, Truist Financial, Union Pacific, WD-40, Webster Financial & WNS.

Friday winds down with Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester speaking at 12:15 pm, with earnings calls from American Express, Autoliv, Comerica, Huntington Banc, Regions Financial & SLB.

See you back here next week!

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM, DIA, GUSH, DXJ, TUR, IGE, EURL, CHAU, JNUG, or ECH AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF declined -0.68% last week, as investors walked away from risk later in the week.

Their RSI is bouncing back from near oversold territory & sits at 34.56, while their MACD is bearish & attempting to make a run at a bullish crossover over the coming week.

Volumes were +15.32% above average last week compared to the year prior’s average, indicating that investors are not feeling overly confident given the strongest volume day was Friday’s risk off into the weekend session & their 3 bullish sessions were all relatively calm.

Monday kicked off with the lowest volume of the week as investors were not anxious to hop back into the pool, & Tuesday’s declines confirmed it.

Wednesday we saw a spinning top candlestick that was filled in (bearish) with the real body situated towards the top of the candle, signaling some bullish sentiment & predicting the bullish Thursday session (while still indicating uncertainty across the board).

Thursday attempted higher but the upper shadow of the candlestick compared to the closing level of the real body indicate that investors still were not that enthused, especially as the 10 Day Moving Average worked its way down towards the price level as a resistance level.

Friday closed on a bearish session that was unable to reach the resistance of the 10 DMA, but open & closing levels of the day’s range were more bullish than the day before.

Their ATR suggests that we will see a brief consolidation in the coming week, where all eyes should be glued to the 10 DMA to see how it impacts price action, while also keeping tabs on the 200 DMA that is currently acting as support.

SPY has support at the $422.29 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.04:1 ), $416.09 (200 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.49:1), $413.72 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.6:1) & $404.13/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.82:1) price levels, with resistance at the $431.49 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.1:1), $432.70 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.23:1), $443.10 (50 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.43:1) & $454.08/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.25:1) price levels.

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF inched up +0.1% over the past week, faring second best of the major indexes.

Their RSI is currently at 40.06, getting out of the oversold end of the neutral range, while their MACD looks to be making an attempt at a bullish crossover in the coming week.

Volumes were -2.06% lower than average last week compared to the average volume of the year prior, which has bearish implications given that 4 of the 5 sessions last week resulted in advances that people were not enthusiastic to participate in.

Monday’s candlestick had a brief glimmer of faint optimism, closing bullish on the day & advancing from last Friday’s risk off session, but Tuesday the bears took back control & walked prices lower.

Wednesday closed with a dragonfly doji, indicating indecision, but also a potential reversal & prices went north on Thursday & Friday.

Friday, however, was unable to test the 10 DMA successfully & as a result that will be adding downward resistance pressure against the price.

Their ATR implies that there may be a brief consolidation in the coming week for their price, with each passing day the range becoming more friendly for a greater decline in the near-term.

QQQ has support at the $354.19 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.33:1), $351.36 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.03:1), $329.41 (200 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.05:1) & $312.31/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2:1) price levels, with resistance at the $360.60 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.38:1), $369.41 (50 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 8.2:1), $380.28 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.41:1) & $387.42/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.4:1) price levels.

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF climbed +0.51% over the past week, as investors showed the most interest in small cap stocks out of the major indexes.

Their RSI is trending back towards oversold, currently at 37.74 & their MACD looks primed to have a possible bullish crossover in the coming days.

Volumes were +6.01% higher than average last week compared to the year prior, which is slightly bullish when you break down the advancing:declining days, however, like the previous 2 indexes, watch the 10 DMA.

Monday closed lower, but the upper shadow paved the way for the rest of the week’s candles, until Friday’s was unable to break the resistance of the 10 DMA.

It is also worth noting that their 200 DMA is about to roll over bearishly while applying resistance.

IWM has support at the $174.52 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.3:1), $174.29 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.3:1), $173.42 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.9:1) & $171.39/share (Volume Sentiment: Even, 1:1) price levels, with resistance at the $177.48 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.71:1), $178.45 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.9:1), $180.76 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.02:1) & $181.49/share (200 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.02:1 ) price levels.

DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF fell -1.36% last week, having the worst week of all of the major indexes.

Their RSI is currently trending towards oversold at 31.41, with their MACD in decline & looking to continue further south.

Volumes were +7.93% higher than average last week compared to the average volume for the year prior, which signals bearish sentiment as outflow volume outnumbered bullish days.

Monday’s slightly bullish session gave a shot of hope, but Tuesday opened with declines before the 200 DMA caught their price & helped nudge it higher, even if momentarily.

Friday they closed below the 200 DMA’s support level, which sets the stage for more pressure to the downside.

DIA has support at the $334.31 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.18:1), $332.93 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.18:1), $331.94 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.02:1) & $329/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.46:1) price levels, with resistance at the $335.43 (200 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.18:1), $339.42 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.32:1), $339.87 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.32:1) & $342.27/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.46:1) price levels.

Uranium (URA), Oil & Gas (DIG), Natural GAS (FCG) & Semiconductors (SMH) Are All Bullishly Leading The Market

URA, the Global X Uranium ETF has gained +35.74% over the past year, including a gain of +47.68% from their 52-week low in March of 2023 (ex-distributions).

Their RSI is returning from overbought territory & trending back towards neutral following the declines of Wednesday & Thursday’s session & their MACD looks set for a bearish crossover early next week.

Volumes spiked +121.12% over the past week compared to the average for the year prior, as investors were getting excited as URA reached a new 52-week high on Thursday & some profits were taken on Friday.

Wednesday’s high declining volume that preceded the new 52-week high is a cause for concern though & shows that investors are beginning to lose enthusiasm for URA in the near-term, atop the profit taking that we saw on Friday.

Monday opened the week up on a strong note for URA, but Tuesday’s session resulted in a bearish harami, which was confirmed during Wednesday’s wild decline session, where investors were selling in droves & prices dipping beneath the support of the 10 day moving average during the session.

Thursday the sellers took back over & pushed the new 52-week high, but the session resulted in a shooting star candle, signaling hesitancy on the part of market participants & setting the stage for Friday’s selloff into the weekend that closed just above the 10 day moving average.

URA offers a 0.18% distribution yield, which will not protect much against losses & so it would be a wise time to consider trimming profits or to look into a hedging strategy using options such as selling calls or buying puts.

The 10 DMA will be an important support level to watch in the coming week, and URA’s Average True Range suggests that we will see a consolidation in the coming week as it looks to revert back towards its mean.

URA has support at the $26.96 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers,1.31:1), $25.71 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.19:1), $23.99 (50 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.79:1) & $23.86/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.79:1) price levels, with resistance at the $27.27 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.31:1) & $28.42 (52-Week High; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 24:1) price levels.

DIG, the ProShares Ultra Oil & Gas ETF has climbed +40.92% over the past year, adding +47.09% since their 52-week low in September of 2022 (ex-distributions).

Their RSI is neutral at 50.97, but their MACD has been bearish for the last couple of weeks following their last decline in mid-September.

Volumes dropped -49.75% last week compared to the average volume for the year prior, signaling that investors have become wary of their near-term future & value.

Monday’s session showed a revived enthusiasm following a week & a half long decline for DIG, but Tuesday’s session formed a bearish harami pattern with a spinning top candlestick, confirming the uncertainty that we see in the volume.

Wednesday was a gap up that was able to open above the support of the 10 day moving average, which while it came as a surprise makes sense given the day prior’s session did close higher than the open, despite being a declining day.

Thursday’s shooting star candlestick was the foreshadowing for the risk off Friday session, where prices closed below the 10 DMA’s support & showed that investors were thinking of even lower based on the lower shadow of the candle.

DIG’s Average True Range suggests that we will be seeing a consolidation move this week & with only a 0.59% distribution yield it would be worth considering hedging options for any positions in DIG.

Their 50 DMA will prove to be an interesting level of support in the near-term now that their 10 DMA is pushing downward while applying resistance to their share-price.

DIG has support at the $43 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.43:1), $42.72 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.43:1), $42.26 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.43:1) & $42.19/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.43:1) price levels, with resistance at the $43.46 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.43:1), $43.82 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.43:1), $43.88 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.43:1) & $44.58/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.13:1) price levels.

FCG, the First Trust Natural Gas ETF advanced 17.92% over the past year, adding +27.9% since their 52-week low in March of 2023 (ex-distributions).

Their RSI is neutral at 51.1 & their MACD is currently bearish, but is making an attempt at a bullish crossover following Wednesday’s gap up session.

Volumes fell a dramatic -73.86% last week below average compared to the year prior, indicating that market participants are feeling very reserved & unsure about the near-term for FCG.

Monday kicked off strong with a bullish engulfing candle that was followed Tuesday by a shooting star that while it was a red candle did close higher than it opened & the upper shadow tested higher, but was stopped short of the resistance of the 50 day moving average.

Wednesday’s gap up opened right in the cradle that was created by the 10 DMA crossing bearishly through the 50 DMA, but Thursday’s spinning top set the stage for the declines seen on Friday’s session as the already indecisive investors showed even more uncertainty with the day’s price action.

Friday resulted in a decline, but the lower shadow of the candle for the day was supported by the 50 day moving average, which will be an important level to watch as this week unfolds, especially as their 10 DMA is declining at such a steep angle.

FCG’s ATR indicates that there is a cool down period on the near-term horizon & while they provide a 3.2% distribution yield to long-term holders that serves as some cushion against losses, it looks like a hedging strategy in the near-term is worth looking into.

FCG has support at the $25.85 (50 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.38:1), $25.72 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.38:1), $25.68 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.38:1) & $25.45/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.38:1) price levels, with resistance at the $26.48 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.5:1), $26.68 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.5:1), $27.23 (Volume Sentiment: ) & $27.66 (52-Week High; Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.25:1) price levels.

SMH, the VanEck Vectors Semiconductors ETF has climbed +56.07% over the past year, notching an impressive +73.66% since their 52-week low in October of 2022 (ex-distributions).

Their RSI is trending back towards neutral at 44.77 after being near oversold earlier in September, while their MACD is bearish but looking primed to attempt a break at a bullish crossover in the coming few days.

Volumes were +5.2% higher than average compared to the year prior this past week, as investors were ready to slow the bleeding of the past month & began to buy back into SMH.

Monday kicked the week off on a bullish note, but Tuesday the declines resumed as prices were stuck in a tight range that began last Thursday.

Wednesday saw a spark of skeptical optimism as the session closed in a dragonfly doji, enabling Thursday’s session to break upward & test the resistance of the 10 day moving average, which it was able to close above & its upper shadow signaled that there was appetite for higher prices.

Friday’s candlestick paints a bearish picture for next week however, as despite the day gaining +0.48%, the price closed lower than the open & while the candle was not a proper shaped spinning top, the shadows & body all signal a tight range, mostly due to the threat of a government shutdown fears.

SMH provides a 0.83% distribution yield for long-term investors, which is not much in terms of protection against declines, so a hedging strategy would be appropriate for any existing positions in the near-term, especially as we see how strong the support of the 10 day moving average will be in the coming week.

Their Average True Range sits currently right about at its mean, signaling that they will likely move at the will of the major indexes in the coming weeks, adding to the need for protection against near-term losses as it appears as though the decline is set to continue or at the very least prices will consolidate into a range following the declines of September.

SMH has support at the $143.46 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.2:1), $142.98 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.2:1), $139.76 (Volume Sentiment: NULL; 0:0*) & $133.54/share (50 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.6:0*) price levels, with resistance at the $146.27 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.18:1), $146.83 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.18:1), $150.71 (50 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.11:1) & $151.71 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.11:1) price levels.

Mexico (MEXX), Healthcare (CURE), Utilities (VPU) & Net Lease Real Estate (NETL) Are All Bearishly Lagging The Market

MEXX, the Direxion Daily MSCI Mexico Bull 3x Shares ETF has advanced a remarkable +104.6% over the past year, including +94.01% since their 52-week low in September of 2022, however since their 52-week high in July of 2023 they have declined -33.73% (ex-distributions).

Their RSI is bouncing back from near the oversold level of 30 & currently sits at 35.34, while their MACD is still bearish but attempting to make a bullish crossover in the coming week.

Trading volumes last week were -12.75% below average compared to the year prior, signaling uncertainty among investors for MEXX.

One thing of note, the only advancing session of the week’s volume was less than half of the volume for the nearest declining day of the week, so it appears investors are still not convinced of MEXX in the near-term, but the selling pressure is beginning to ease, or most of the folks who wanted to get out of the pool since their 52-week high have done so.

Monday kicked the week off with a declining session on a gap down where the upper shadow signals there was an attempt to break higher, but the close near the $24 mark shows that sentiment waned near immediately & the bears still have control.

Tuesday the declines continued until Wednesday’s session’s hammer candle was able to stop the bleeding & force prices higher on Thursday.

Thursday’s gains though should be viewed skeptically, as the low volume does not express a change in investor sentiment.

Friday attempted to open higher & continue the run, but shutdown fears forced a risk off environment that led to the day’s decline of -2.21%.

MEXX offers a 1.89% distribution yield for long-term shareholders, but this only provides so much cushion against losses & a hedging strategy in the near-term would be advised.

MEXX has support at the $22.62 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.5:1), $22.18 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.5:1), $21.13 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.2:1) & $20.99/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.48:1) price levels, with resistance at the $23.22 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.44:1), $24.31/2 (2 Touch-Points; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.28:1), $24.72 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.28:1) & $24.95 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.28:1) price levels.

CURE, the Direxion Daily Healthcare Bull 3x Shares ETF has nudged forward +2.5% over the past year, including a +9% gain since their 52-week low in October of 2022, but has dropped -31.94% from their 52-week high in December of 2022 (ex-distributions).

Their RSI is trending towards oversold & sits at 32.5, while their MACD trends further bearishly.

Last week’s trading volume was -17.55% below average compared to the year prior, indicating that many investors who wanted to sell may have unloaded their shares following a month-long decline, but the lack of meaningful advancing volume does not indicate that the pain is over just yet.

Monday opened on a bullish note, before Tuesday & Wednesday featured more declines, with Wednesday’s wide-range session seeing the most volume, which given the length of the lower shadow on the candle has further bearish implications in the near-term.

Thursday’s shooting star narrowly missed creating a harami pattern as its upper shadow broke over the day prior’s range, but the light volume was not enough to push other bulls back into new positions, leading to the further declines seen on Friday.

CURE offers a 1.83% distribution yield, which does not provide much protection from losses, making it worth considering hedging options for existing positions that do not want to be closed.

Their ATR suggests that there may be a brief consolidation & cool down in the coming week, following a month of losses, which will make it important to keep an eye on the resistance that the 10 day moving average is providing throughout the week to see how prices behave in relation to it.

CURE has support at the $87.49 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 0.5:0*), $86.03 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 3.3:0*), $85.53 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.22:1) & $85.44/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.22:1) price levels, with resistance at the $90.99 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.07:1), $92.03 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 11:1), $93.35 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2:1) & $95.55/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.6:1) price levels.

VPU, the Vanguard Utilities ETF has fallen -9.08% over the past year, declining -20.64% from their 52-week high in December of 2022, while reclaiming +0.62% since their 52-week low in September of 2023 (ex-distributions).

Their RSI is oversold at 24.62 & their MACD is still in bearish decline.

Volumes last week were +65.02% above average compared to the year prior, mostly due tot he declining sessions of Wednesday & Thursday, as well as the attempted recovery in Friday’s session.

VPU is near its 52-week low, following a ~-6.22% decline during the week, where Friday’s session was able to slow the bleeding, but also did not finish with future bullish implications.

While the day closed +0.24%, the session’s close was below its open & the lower shadow of the day’s candle went lower than the low of Thursday, signaling that market participants are still not ready to turn bullish on VPU.

While they offer a 3.66% distribution yield to long-term holders, this does not look like a safe time to enter a position & existing positions would benefit from a hedging strategy put in place while market participants establish where they value VPU.

Their ATR signals that there may be a consolidation in the near-term, but does not signal that the losses will be over anytime soon.

VPU has support at the $127.45/share (52-Week Low; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3:1) price level, with resistance at the $130.60 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.25:1 ), $131.78 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.25:1), $134.33 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.2:1) & $135.77/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.2:1) price levels.

NETL, the Fundamental Income Net Lease ETF has dipped -0.99% over the past year, losing -22.53% from their 52-week high in February of 2023 & regaining +1.52% since their 52-week low in September of 2023 (ex-distributions).

Their RSI is oversold at 27.82, with a MACD that is beginning to curl bullishly, but is a long way from making a bullish crossover.

Volumes last week were -24.05% below average compared to the year prior, indicating that market participants are not feeling particularly optimistic about NETL at this time.

Monday the week kicked off on a sour note, with a gap down session that was able to reclaim some of the open’s losses with a slightly higher close, but bad feelings were in the air.

Tuesday it continued with another gap down session that covered a wide price range before Wednesday’s declines set the floor in for the rest of the week.

Thursday attempted an advance, but resulted in a harami pattern & set the stage for Friday’s slightly up session that closed lower than it opened, and also featured a longer lower shadow than upper, indicating that investors are still very much on the fence about the near-term value of NETL.

NETL offers a 5.29% distribution yield, which provides some protection against losses, but is still not enough to warrant an entry to a new position at this time & hedging options should be explored for any existing positions, especially as they are just off of their 52-week low.

NETL has support at the $21.24/share (52-Week Low; Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.5:1) price level, with resistance at the $21.65 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.5:1), $21.75 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.5:1), $21.99 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.5:1) & $22.16/share (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.76:1) price levels.

The Week Ahead

Monday starts the week off with ISM Manufacturing & Construction Spending data both at 10 am.

There are no major earnings reports scheduled for Monday.

Job Openings Data is released at 10 am on Tuesday, with McCormick & Company & Cal-Maine Foods due to report earnings.

Wednesday starts with ADP Employment data at 8:15 am, followed by Factory Orders & ISM Services data at 10 am.

AngioDynamics, Helen of Troy, Resources Connection, RPM & Tilray are all due to report earnings on Wednesday.

Initial Jobless Claims & the U.S. Trade Deficit data are set to be reported at 8:30 am on Thursday.

Lamb Weston, Conagra, Constellation Brands & Levi Strauss are all scheduled to report earnings on Thursday.

Friday the week winds down with the U.S. Employment Report, U.S. Employment Rate, U.S. Hourly Wages & Hourly Wages Year-over-Year at 8:30 am before Consumer Credit data is reported at 3 pm & there are no noteworthy earnings reports scheduled for the day.

See you back here next week!

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM, DIA, URA, DIG, FCG, SMH, MEXX, CURE, VPU, or NETL AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF declined -2.98% over the past week, in a week that saw lots of risk-off behavior among market participants.

Their RSI is currently hovering above oversold territory at 33.17, but their MACD is in bearish freefall following last week’s declines.

Volumes were -6.23% below average compared to the year prior (78,641,179 vs. 83,867,006), which is mostly attributed to the first two sessions of the week.

Monday the week kicked off on a spinning top that couldn’t penetrate the resistance of the 10 & 50 day moving averages as the week kicked off on a note of uncertainty.

Tuesday resulted in a dragonfly doji & Wednesday opened higher at the 10 DMA’s resistance level, but was a day of declines for the S&P 500, closing lower than Tuesday’s candle’s lower shadow indicating that market participants were feeling more cautious & risk off.

Thursday this sentiment was confirmed as SPY gapped down with hardly much upper shadow on the day’s candlestick on the highest volume of the week, as investors were eager to hop out of the pool. following the Federal Reserve announcement & Chariman Powell’s Press Conference.

Friday the declines continued as market participants did not want to carry much risk into the weekend, which was confirmed by the day’s volume being just lower than that of Thursday’s.

SPY’s Average True Range indicates that there may be a period of consolidation in the coming week at these new recent lows, however this is hard to judge due to the limited support that they have at these price levels, having just broken below the major level that was holding up the price action of the previous month.

It will be all eyes on the 200 Day Moving Average moving forward as SPY looks to find some footing for support.

SPY has support at the $415.11 (200 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.6:1), $414.61 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.6:1), $413.72 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.6:1) & $404.13/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.82:1) price levels, with resistance at the $431.49 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.1:1), $441.52 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.43:1), $445.37 (50 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.45:1) & $452.08/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.25:1) price levels.

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF fell -3.44% over the past week, as the risk-off sentiment struck the tech-heavy NASDAQ index the hardest.

Their RSI is trending towards oversold at 35.73 & their MACD has been bearish for over the past week.

Volumes were -12.37% below average compared to the year prior (48,223,528 vs. 55,031,426), indicating some uncertainty among market participants, particularly on the bookend days of the week which happened to be the only advancing days (Monday had lowest volume of week, Friday had second highest).

Monday opened up the week on a cautious, but optimistic note as the session was green, but the volume was very light, which was confirmed Tuesday with a hanging man candlestick.

Wednesday opened just above the range of Tuesday’s shadow while testing the 10 DMA, but resulted in a large decline that engulfed Tuesday’s candle bearishly, setting the stage for Thursday.

Thursday’s gap down session was the strongest volume of the week as investors decided that QQQ could not break through the resistance of the 10 DMA the day prior.

Friday closed the week out on a rather ominous note, with a bullish session whose close was lower than its open & the shadows of the day’s range match the shadows of Thursday’s candle.

QQQ’s ATR may help to prop prices up in the next day or two, but after the first two days are removed from the calculation there is room to run lower while reverting back to the ATR’s mean, as then the furthest out inputs to the calculation would be within the most recent consolidation range or lower.

$357.07/share will be an area to watch as it is the last support level before the 200 DMA at $327.50 (-8.3% lower), which would expose QQQ to further, more violent declines in the near-term.

QQQ has support at the $357.07 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2.57:1), $327.50 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.48:1), $312.31 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2:1) & $307.92/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.04:1) price levels, with resistance at the $358.06 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2.57:1), $369.02 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 8.2:1), $371.80 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 8.2:1) & $371.85/share (50 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 8.2:1) price levels.

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF dropped -3.14% over the past week, only faring worse than the tech-heavy NASDAQ.

Their RSI dipping into oversold territory at 29.29, with their MACD continuing to be bearish throughout the better part of September.

Volumes were -10.39% below average compared to the year prior (25,139,418 vs. 28,054,233) in the week that was five consecutive sessions of declines, mostly due to Monday & Friday’s sessions being on weak volume.

Monday’s session barely broke down through the support of the 200 DMA, while Tuesday opened in line with it, only to attempt to reach the 10 DMA (upper shadow) & ultimately decline to close below the 200 DMA’s resistance & test lower price levels (lower shadow).

Wednesday again tried to test the 10 DMA’s resistance unsuccessfully, after opening at the 200 DMA & resulted in a close well below the moving average.

Thursday’s gap down following the Fed announcement & press conference was the strongest volume of the week (Wednesday’s volatile session was second strongest), with Friday showing more risk-off sentiment by market participants, as prices drifted lower after being unable to break above Thursday’s session’s open.

Much like QQQ’s ATR, IWM’s ATR is signaling that there is a chance of a 2-4 day consolidation at these levels before we resume the descent, but things still are looking prepared to move further to the downside.

IWM has support at the $175.34 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.3:1), $174.23 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.3:1), $172.20 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.9:1) & $169.25/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.6:1) price levels, with resistance at the $179.28 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.19:1), $181.61 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.02:1), $181.83 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.02:1) & $182.36/share (200 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.08:1) price levels.

DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF dipped -1.9% last week, as the larger cap names were able to better weather the storm following Wednesday’s announcement.

Their RSI is trending towards oversold at 36.13, with a MACD that’s been in bearish territory for the better part of the last two months.

Volumes declined -16.56% last week compared to the average for the year prior (3,018,586 vs. 3,617,642), mostly due to the first two days of the week, confirming that the weakness shown from Wednesday on is likely to continue in the near-term.

Monday resulted in a spinning top, signaling indecision as prices were just supported by the 10 day moving average & unable to test the 50 DMA.

Tuesday set the stage for declines with a hanging man candlestick that was held down by the resistance of the 10 DMA, followed by Wednesday’s attempt to test the 50 DMA after opening at the 10 day moving average, but resulting in a down day below the resistance of the 10 DMA.

Thursday resulted in a gap down & Friday’s session continued that sentiment as market participants are showing signs of being uneasy about the near-term environment.

DIA’s ATR is signaling that there may be some form of a cool off consolidation or at least a more “controlled burn” decline to come in the near-term as they look primed to test the support of the 200 DMA in the coming week.

DIA has support at the $339.45 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.32:1), $339.42 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.32:1), $338.71 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.32:1) & $338.38/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.32:1) price levels, with resistance at the $342.27 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.46:1), $344.05 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.54:1), $344.92 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.54:1) & $347.56/share (50 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.54:1) price levels.

India Growth Leaders (GLIN), Emerging Markets Dividends (EDIV), Energy Momentum (PXI) & Insurance (KIE) Are All Bullishly Leading The Market

GLIN, the VanEck Vectors India Growth Leaders ETF has advanced +19.59% over the past year, including climbing +26.51% since their 52-week low in March of 2023 (ex-distributions).

Their RSI is just above neutral at 55.1, with a MACD that is in bearish decline following profit taking from their recent 52-week high.

Volumes were +66.66% above average last week compared to the year prior (17,344 vs. 10,406.68), with the highest volume days occurring on Monday & Thursday, both of which were declining days where investors were collecting their profits from the run up that’s taken place over the past 6 months.

Monday’s session opened above the 10 day moving average, but was unable to find support at it despite moving higher to approach the $39.50-mark during the session & the selling pressure pushed the price below the 10 DMA.

Tuesday’s session was able to break out slightly above the 10 DMA’s resistance, but Wednesday saw the share price tumble back beneath the 10 DMA’s resistance.

The open:close price action for Wednesday & Monday’s declines were all concentrated in the lower half of the candlestick, which signals investor sentiment is to the downside.

Thursday’s session resulted in a gap down spinning top candlestick, indicating that investors are feeling bearish, but unsure about where to value GLIN’s price with the open & close being very close to one another (but too spread out to be a doji).

Friday the week ended on another narrow spinning top candlestick, as investors were willing to take a slight bit of risk, but the mood still looks bearish at worst & uncertain at best for the near-term.

GLIN offers a 1.43% distribution yield for long-term holders of their shares, which is not much protection against moves to the downside, which means it would be wise for investors to take some profits & or use a hedging strategy with options such as selling calls or buying puts for the near-term.

Their Average True Range (ATR) indicates that there may be a new consolidation range built around the range of Thursday & Friday’s candlesticks, but investors should keep their eyes peeled on the 50 day moving average & how prices begin to behave around it.

If it serves as adequate support the consolidation range sounds likely, however if it fails to hold up which the price:volume sentiment indicates is a strong possibility there will be further declines from the 52-week high.

GLIN has support at the $38.38 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.07:1), $37.72 (50 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.28:1), $37.62 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.28:1) & $36.78/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.74:1) price levels, with resistance at the $39.04 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.24) & $39.62 /share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.24) price levels.

EDIV, the SPDR S&P Emerging Markets Dividend ETF has gained +36.29% over the past year, adding +39.78% from their 52-week low in November of 2022 (ex-distributions).

Their RSI is sitting on the overbought end of neutral at 57.43 & their MACD looks primed to crossover bearishly in the coming week as it is barely hovering in a bullish position.

Volumes last week skyrocketed +71.01% above average compared to the year prior (58,068.75 vs. 33,956.08) led by Tuesday’s bullish session & Thursday’s bearish session.

Tuesday’s volume spike seems to be more of a last resort pump to try to keep the price above the 10 day moving average & not a signal of strength, which is confirmed by their dragonfly doji & the rest of the week’s performance.

Monday the week kicked off with a shooting star candlestick that opened around the 10 DMA & closed slightly higher than the open, but it was still a seller dominated session that resulted in a decline with the indecision indicated by the day’s candlestick being echoed into the week.

Tuesday’s dragonfly doji candle continued the message of uncertainty, but was able to stay above the support of the 10 DMA, but Wednesday’s shooting star candlestick paved the way for the decline below the 10 DMA that occurred on Thursday.

Thursday’s gap down session was supported near-perfectly by the 50 DMA, with the 10 DMA providing resistance for the upper shadow of the candle.

Friday resulted in a bullish session, but the shooting star spinning top candlestick implies that there is still great uncertainty about EDIV’s valuation & signals to expect further near-term declines, particularly if the week opens below the 10 DMA, at which point attention will shift to how strong the 50 DMA can hold up (buyer dominated price zone, but sitting atop 2 seller dominated zones in the chart below).

EDIV offers a 4.65% distribution yield for long-term holders, which does provide some cushion against losses, but it would be wise to explore options for hedging against more near-term declines as they cool off from their 52-week high.

Their ATR is indicating that there will likely be a dip below the 50 DMA in either a consolidation range & or a steeper decline in the coming weeks, which is important as after that price level the nearest support is ~3.2% lower.

EDIV has support at the $30 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2:1), $29.63 (50 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.43:1), $28.67 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.09:1) & $28.44/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.09:1) price levels, with resistance at the $30.38 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2:1) & $31.16/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.1:1) price levels.

PXI, the Invesco DWA Energy Momentum ETF has improved +24.68% over the past year, including a +26.85% climb from their 52-week low in May of 2023 (ex-distributions).

Their RSI is just below the neutral 50-mark at 47.86, with their MACD being bearish after the declines from the high of early September as investors began to take profits following the 3-4 month run up.

Volumes tumbled -25.28% below average last week compared to the year prior (29,008 vs. 38,820) in a sign that there is not much confidence in the market & investors are unsure as to where they value PXI shares.

Monday’s session kicked off with a spinning top candlestick that was able to be supported by the 10 day moving average before Tuesday opened with a sign of optimism near the top of Monday’s candle’s upper shadow.

The mood soured as they broke through the support of the 10 day moving average in a session that covered a wide range of prices.

Wednesday’s candle attempted to test the 10 DMA but was unable to, with the day’s open & closing prices being concentrated on the lower end of the candlestick & a small shadow below it indicating that investors were eying further declines.

Thursday the declines continued over a rather wide range of prices & Friday’s candlestick formed a harami with Thursday’s.

While Friday’s session opened above the close of Thursday’s, the close was below the open for the day, indicating further weak sentiment among market participants as the 10 DMA was moved further away from & became more bearish.

The 50 DMA will be an area to watch in the coming week, as it has begun to curl over & signal a bearish sentiment in the coming days, particularly if the resistance of the 10 DMA continues pushing pressure down on PXI’s share price.

While they offer a 2.79% distribution yield for long-term holders, a hedging strategy would be advised in the near-term while waiting to see how their support levels hold upas a means of protection.

Their ATR implies that there may be a consolidation range forming in the near-term, however if the support of the 50 DMA is unable to hold up (particularly over the next 4-8 sessions) there is room to dive further down.

PXI has support at the $44.85 (2 Touch-Points In Last 52-Weeks; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.33:1), $44.81 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.33:1), $44.45 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.33:1) & $44.22/share (50 Day Moving Average, 2 Touch-Points In Past 52-Weeks; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.33:1) price levels, with resistance at the $45.21 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.67:1), $46 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2.75:1), $46.07 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2.75:1) & $47.20/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.33:1) price levels.

KIE, the SPDR S&P Insurance ETF has gained +21.61% over the past year, adding +22.56% from their 52-week low in September of 2022 (ex-distributions).

Their RSI is on the overbought end of neutral at 59.74, while their MACD is still bullish but beginning to signal a bearish crossover is to come in the next few days.

Volumes dipped -6.99% below average last week compared to the year prior (959,227.5 vs. 1,031,362.59), an indication of lackluster enthusiasm by investors, even as they hit a fresh 52-week high on Wednesday.

Monday kicked the week off on a bullish note following Friday’s bearish doji, although the lower shadow did dip lower than the lower shadow of Friday’s candle.

Tuesday the climb continued with a small gap up & investors were interested in seeing KIE reach new highs as the upper shadow went up to $43.92/share, but the close of the day was lower at $43.83.

Tuesday led the week in volume.

Wednesday opened lower & a shooting star candle was formed as the new 52-week high was hit, but the day’s close was much lower & narrowly above the close of Tuesday’s session.

The weak volume on Wednesday compared to Tuesday (~66%) also confirmed the bearish sentiment behind the shooting star candle, as despite hitting the new high there was very limited enthusiasm among market participants.

Thursday featured low volume (similar to Wednesday) profit taking by those who hadn’t done so the day prior, which led to the decline into Friday, where an inverted hammer candlestick was able to be supported by the 10 day moving average.

As we’ve see with the other names so far in this weekend’s bullish section, there will likely be a retest or two of this support in the coming days, with a support zone falling in the $43.27-31 range.

Their ATR is indicating that a reversion to its mean would require further declines in the coming sessions, which sets the stage for the bearish head & shoulders pattern that has been emerging on their chart since August & will be something to keep a close eye on in the next few weeks.

KIE offers a 1.64% distribution yield to long-term holders of the security, which is limited protection against losses, making it important to explore hedging options & taking some profits while waiting to see how this support zone holds up.

KIE has support at the $43.31 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2:1), $43.27 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2:1), $42.42 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.2:1) & $42.40/share (50 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.2:1) price levels, with resistance at the $43.82 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2:1) & $44.13/share (52-Week High; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

Retail (RETL), 7-10 Year Treasuries (TYD), Industrials (DUSL) & Global Wind Energy (FAN) Are All Bearishly Lagging The Market

RETL, the Direxion Daily Retail Bull 3x Shares ETF has fallen -18.78% over the past year, dropping -58.3% from their 52-week high in February of 2023, but reclaiming +11.79% from their 52-week low in June of 2023 (ex-distributions).

Their RSI is floating just above the oversold level of 30 at 30.65, while their MACD has been bearish since the beginning of the month of September.

Volumes dropped -22.01% below average last week compared to the year prior (368,925 vs. 473,029) as a sign of uncertainty amid a week of five consecutive declining sessions.

Monday kicked off with a declining session that opened just below Friday’s close & began sliding down immediately, as there is no upper shadow on the day’s candlestick.

Monday dipped below the support of the 10 DMA & investors favored the downside as indicated by the lower shadow on the day’s candle.

Tuesday provided the most clues about investor sentiment, as it was the highest volume day of the week & resulted in a doji whose upper shadow barely broke above the day prior’s close, signaling a lot of price movement in a narrow range (compared to the prior 4 sessions) that ultimately resulted in a narrow close & open as investors sit in uncertainty

Wednesday prices tried to make a run for the 10 DMA’s resistance level, but were cut short around the $6 mark & the day closed out below the low of Tuesday’s session.

Thursday & Friday the declines continued to the $5.50 mark, with only the 52-week low $4.87/share remaining as support for RETL from the past year’s prices.

While they offer a 2.04% distribution yield for long-term holders that can provide some cushion, this looks like there may be more declines on the horizon for RETL.

Their ATR is signaling that we may see a brief consolidation range over the next 4-6 days as higher priced sessions are dropped from the calculation in favor of lower prices ones, before seeing declines continue.

This will be especially true if the 10 DMA comes closer to the price but serves as solid resistance over it.

RETL has support at the $4.87/share (52-Week Low; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price level, with resistance at the $5.66 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.3:1), $5.81 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.3:1), $5.88 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.3:1) & $5.91/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.3:1) price levels.

TYD, the Direxion Daily 7-10 Year Treasury Bull 3x Shares ETF has declined -17.22% over the past year, losing -25.45% since their 52-week high in April of 2023, while regaining +1.35% from their 52-week low in September of 2023 (ex-distributions).

Their RSI is rebounding back from oversold territory but currently sits at 34.66, while their MACD has been bearish for the last week or two.

Volumes were +23.54% higher than average last week compared to the year prior (50,213 vs. 40,646), which sends an interesting signal as they were highest on the three declining days, signaling some profit taking on Tuesday following Monday’s advancing session & the second highest volume day was Thursday’s gap down session.

Volumes are indicating that market participants are still viewing TYD bearishly & signaling that there may be a retest of the current only support level & 52-week low at $24.78.

Monday saw a day that resulted narrowly to the upside over Friday’s session’s close that was unable to break Friday’s opening price (indicated by upper shadow).

Tuesday investors were eager to pull their money out after Monday’s gains, resulting in the strongest day by volume of the week.

Wednesday was a bearish engulfing candle, that while it attempted to challenge the 10 DMA’s resistance level fell well short of it & resulted in a further decline atop Tuesday’s lowest price level & set the stage for Thursday’s gap down session.

Friday attempted to claw back some gains after that new 52-week low set Thursday & may lead into a brief consolidation range while the oscillators & indicators revert back to their means.

They offer a 2.51% distribution yield for long-term holders of the security, but with such limited upside signals currently this looks like a good opportunity to watch how it behaves near its lowest level of the past year & how it handles the downside pressure of the 10 & 50 DMAs acting as resistance.

There are 8 days in the calculation period for their ATR that occur before last Friday’s gap down, after which the price range will be lower for the last 14 days & the declines should be expected to continue after a brief pause.

Should they manage to float rangebound all of this week, things will become more interesting as four sessions later the price action before Thursday’s gap down is all removed from the calculation, enabling a more steep descent.

TYD has support at the $24.78/share (52-Week Low; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price level, with resistance at the $25.55 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.4:1), $25.65 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.4:1), $26.40 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.9:1) & $26.92/share (50 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Seller, 1.9:1) price levels.

DUSL, the Direxion Daily Industrials Bull 3x Shares has gained +48.82% over the past year, while falling -24.45% since their 52-week high in August of 2023, but has managed to regain +59.64% from their 52-week low in October of 2022 (ex-distributions).

Their RSI is in oversold territory at 27.35 & their MACD has been bearish since the beginning of September.

Volumes dropped -37.25% below average last week compared to the year prior (16,213.25 vs. 25,838.86) as investors were unsure if their 200 day moving average would be able to hold up as support.

A telling signal is that Thursday’s gap down session that confirmed that the 10 & 200 DMAs are now resistance was the highest volume session of the week, as investors are lacking confidence in DUSL.

Monday’s spinning top’s open & closing prices were concentrated around the bottom of the candle, while the 10 DMA served as strong resistance against the price action.

Tuesday resulted in a hammer candlestick that was supported by the 200 DMA, but did test its support throughout the day as the shadow shows it did briefly dip below it before it closed above it.

Wednesday was the day of judgement, where prices opened at the 10 DMA, briefly tried to break above it as indicated by the upper shadow, but were forced back downward, to close below the support of the 200 DMA & to even test lower than the day’s close as indicated by the lower shadow.

Thursday investors decided in droves that they were not confident in DUSL’s current price & Friday the declines continued lower, with a brief attempt to trade above Thursday’s close (upper shadow).

DUSL pays a 1.59% distribution yield to long-term shareholders, which is not much in terms of protection against losses.

While their Average True Range is moving away from the mean throughout all of these declines, over the next 2-7 days the high level of the range will be removed from the calculation, enabling a further decline which may be triggered sooner as we see the 10 DMA is bearishly crossing through the 200 DMA on Monday.

DUSL has support at the $31.42 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.25:1), $30.78 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.16:1), $30.46 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.16:1) & $29.88/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.61:1) price levels, with resistance at the $31.93 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.25:1), $32.06 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.14:1), $32.17 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.14:1) & $32.63/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.14:1) price levels.

FAN, the First Trust ISE Global Wind Energy Index Fund ETF has lost -4.92% over the past year, falling -20.19% from their 52-week high in January of 2023, but has recovered +5.34% since their 52-week low in October of 2022 (ex-distributions).

Their RSI is trending toward oversold territory at 34.44, as their MACD hovers barely bullish & looks set for a bearish crossover in the next day or two’s sessions.

Volumes were -49.98% below average last week compared to the year prior (34,049.5 vs. 68,075.29) as investors sat unsure watching to see how close to their 52-week low they might test.

Monday kicked off with bearish gap down spinning top, setting the stage for further declines that were provided on Tuesday.

Wednesday saw a break to the upside & an attempt to close above the $15.50 mark that did not hold up & the day’s session closed just below the open of Tuesday’s.

Thursday the 10 DMA’s support was blown right through on a gap down & investors signaled they wanted to see FAN priced lower as Friday closed lower than Thursday & featured a lower shadow to the candlestick as well, indicating there is still more bearish sentiment regarding FAN.

With only 1.98% cushion in distribution yield it would be wise to watch how this behaves as it approaches its 52-week low again before entering into any position.

Their ATR is trending away from the mean, however on Wednesday two of the 7 sessions that are above the range of the current price level will be removed from the calculation, meaning we may see some form of an attempt at consolidation in the near-term before the declines are set to continue.

FAN has support at the $ 14.82(Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3:1) & $13.97/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.38:1) price levels, with resistance at the $14.99 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3:1), $15.03 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.67:1), $15.26 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.67:1) & $15.43 /share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.67:1) price levels.

The Week Ahead

The week kicks off Monday with no major data announcements & Thor Industries scheduled to report earnings.

Tuesday New Homes Sales are announced at 8:30 am, the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index (20 Cities) data is reported at 9 am, followed by Consumer Confidence at 10 am & Fed Governor Bowman speaking at 1:30 pm.

Costco Wholesale, AAR Corp., Cintas, Ferguson, MillerKnoll, TD Synnex, Progress Software & United Natural Foods are all scheduled to report earnings data on Tuesday.

Wednesday features Durable-Goods Orders & Durable-Goods Minus Transportation data at 8:30 am.

Micron Technologies, Concentrix, H.B. Fuller, Jefferies, Paychex & Worthington are all due to report earnings on Wednesday.

Initial Jobless Claims & GDP (revision) data are scheduled for 8:30 am Thursday, followed by Fed Governor Cook speaking at 1 pm & Fed Chairman Powell speaking at 4pm (conveniently right after the close).

Thursday’s earnings reports include Nike, Accenture, BlackBerry, CarMax, Jabil & Vail Resorts.

Friday morning winds the week down with Personal Income, Personal Spending, PCE Index, Core PCE Index, PCE (Year-over-Year), Core PCE (Year-over-Year), Advanced U.S. Trade Balance In Goods, Advanced Retail Inventories & Advanced Wholesale Inventories data at 8:30 am, followed by the Chicago Business Barometer at 9:45 am & at 10 the week wraps up with Consumer Sentiment (final) data.

Carnival is scheduled to report earnings on Friday.

See you back here next week!

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM, DIA, GLIN, EDIV, PXI, KIE, RETL, TYD, DUSL or FAN AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF declined -0.78% last week in a week of relatively rangebound trading.

Their RSI is sitting just below the neutral mark at 48.57, with a MACD that is crossing over bearishly as we head into a new week.

Volumes were -8.8% less than average last week compared to the year prior (76,627,400 vs. 84,016,741), signaling that investors are feeling uncertain, which is confirmed by Friday’s risk off session being the week’s highest volume.

Monday’s session kicked off with a hanging man that was able to close above the support of the 10 & 50 day moving averages.

Tuesday’s candle was a bearish spinning top that was unable to stay above the 10 & 50 day moving averages, followed by a doji on Wednesday what also was not able to break that resistance.

Thursday saw a glimmer of hope with a session that jumped above the resistance levels & was able to maintain that price level into the close before everything unwound on Friday’s high volume risk off session heading into the weekend that closed below the 10 & 50 day moving average.

SPY has support at the $431 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.10:1), $414.61 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.6:1), $414.38 (200 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.6:1) & $413.72/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.6:1) price levels, with resistance at the $445.14 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.45:1), $445.93 (50 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.45:1), $452.08 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.25:1) & $457.82/share (52-Week High; Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.07:1) price levels.

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF dropped -1.63% last week, faring the worst of the major indexes.

Their RSI is just below the neutral mark at 48.11, with a MACD that has recently crossed over bearishly.

Volumes were -11.22% below average last week vs. the year prior (49,085,080 vs. 55,285,373), which like SPY was strongest on Friday’s risk off session, indicating that investors are feeling uneasy & more risk averse in the near-term.

QQQ’s chart has a lot in common with SPY’s for last week, kicking the week off with a hanging man that was able to settle & close on the top of the 10 day moving average’s support.

Tuesday’s bearish candle’s real body was wedged in between the 10 & 50 day moving averages, with the upper shadow briefly breaking resistance but not closing above it.

Wednesday’s spinning top showed investors were getting jittery, with the candle’s body staying between the 10 & 50 day moving averages & closing atop the support of the 50 DMA.

Thursday offered a glimmer of hope blended with uncertainty, as the day’s session resulted in a spinning top that was able to break above the 10 day moving average & close above it.

That indecision resulted in a big risk off Friday, which is setting the tone for more near-term declines as investors will be watching for the 10 DMA to bearishly cross the 50 DMA in the coming days.

QQQ has support at the $358.06 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2.56:1), $357.07 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2.56:1), $326.04 (200 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.48:1) & $312.31/share (Volume Sentiment: NULL; 0:0*) price levels, with resistance at the $371.80 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 8.2:1), $372.52 (50 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 4.25:1), $373.46 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 4.25:1) & $380.28/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.41:1) price levels.

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF lost -0.41% last week, as their prices remained relatively range-bound for the week.

Their RSI is trending toward oversold & currently sits at 40.53 & their MACD has been bearish since the beginning of September.

Volumes fell -10.13% below the year prior’s average last week (25,259,700 vs. 28,105,603) in a sign of indecision during the week, but investors should note that Friday’s sell off into the weekend was the strongest volume session of the week, which is a warning signal.

Monday kicked off with a bullish start, however the session closed lower than it opened, which set the stage for the declines through the rest of the week.

Tuesday’s candle shows a wide range of prices were covered, but the open & close were concentrated towards the bottom of the day’s candle.

Wednesday the decline continued, but was supported by the 200 day moving average, before Thursday’s session attempted to break above the 10 day moving average’s resistance but was only able to briefly, as the close was below the 10 DMA.

Friday was a risk off session, with the 10 DMA forcing IWM lower, although the support of the 200 DMA was not broken.

As their 10 DMA approaches the 200 DMA it will be worth keeping an eye on to see if support holds up for their share price.

IWM has support at the $182.47 (200 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.08:1), $181.61 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.02:1), $179.28 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.19:1) & $175.34/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.3:1) price levels, with resistance at the $183.56 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.08:1), $184.48 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.10:1), $185.44 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.10:1) & $187.48/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.15:1) price levels.

DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF inched downward -0.09% last week, as investors were not as eager to exit larger cap stocks as they were other names.

Their RSI is just below the neutral mark at 49.87, but their MACD is signaling a bearish crossover is on the near-term horizon.

Their volume declined -30.37% below average last week compared to the year prior (2,526,420 vs. 3,628,365) as market participants took a mostly wait & see approach to DIA, with exception to Thursday’s pump attempt to break & remain above support & Friday’s risk off profit taking that led the week in terms of highest volume sessions.

Monday’s session was a spinning top that was unable to close over the resistance of the 50 DMA, but was supported by the close by 10 DMA.

Tuesday also had a spinning top, as for a second day investors had feelings of indecision, except the support of the 10 DMA broke down.

Wednesday they attempted to break the 10 & 50 DMAs & were able to temporarily on Thursday before Friday’s session indicated that investors were feeling more risk averse heading into the weekend.

DIA has support at the $346.03 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.54:1), $344.05 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.54:1), $342.27 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.46:1) & $339.45/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.32:1) price levels, with resistance at the $347.44 (50 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.54:1), $350.35 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.03:1), $355.23 (52-Week High; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.73:1) price levels.

Tying It All Together & The Week Ahead

Monday kicks off with Home Builder Confidence Index data at 10 am & Stitch Fix is scheduled to report earnings.

Housing Starts & Building Permits will be reported on Tuesday morning at 8:30 am.

Tuesday’s earnings reports include Apogee Enterprises, AutoZone, Endava & Steelcase.

The Fed Interest Rate Decision will be announced Wednesday at 2 pm, followed by Chairman Powell’s Press Conference at 2:30 pm.

FedEx reports earnings on Wednesday, as well as General Mills & KB Home.

Initial Jobless Claims, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey & U.S. Current Account Deficit data are reported at 8:30 am Thursday, followed by U.S. Leading Economic Indicators & Existing Home Sales data at 10 am.

Darden Restaurants & FactSet are due to report earnings results on Thursday.

Friday the week winds down with Fed Governor Lisa Cook speaking at 8:30 am, followed by S&P Flash U.S. Services PMI & S&P Flash U.S. Manufacturing PMI at 9:45 am & at 1pm Minneapolis Fed President Neil Kashkari & San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly are scheduled to both speak.

There are no major earnings reports scheduled for Friday.

See you back here next week!

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM or DIA AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF dipped -0.83% over the past week, performing better than the NASDAQ & Russell 2000, but underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

Their RSI is neutral at 50, but their MACD is beginning to crossover bearishly which will be something for investors to keep their eyes on.

SPY’s volume declined this past week -23.53% below the prior year’s average (64,484,950 vs. 84,325,501) signaling investor uncertainty & people trying to take profits off of the table after their recent run up at the end of August.

The week began on a sour note, with a new resistance level occurring at $453.67 on Monday’s session on a filled in green/black candlestick where price action favored being higher, but the lower shadow indicated there was also strong sentiment at the lower end of the day’s range.

Tuesday started the real decline, followed by a hanging man candlestick on Wednesday that dipped below the 10 & 50 day moving averages, but managed to close right at them for the day’s session.

Thursday SPY continued lower, flirting with the 10 & 50 day moving averages again on the upper shadow, but ultimately closing below them & Friday signaled further indecision with a spinning top candlestick that’s upper shadow tested but could not penetrate the 10 & 50 day moving averages & the candle’s real body was concentrated near the bottom of the day’s range.

Their Average True Range (ATR) suggests that there is more cooling off on the horizon, which should be troublesome to market participants as they are only 2.81% away from the nearest support level, which if broken leaves them exposed to further declines of up to -7% more if they test the next level of support or the closely trailing 200 day moving average.

SPY has support at the $433.01 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.23:1), $415.18 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.6:1), $414.24 (200 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.6:1) & $405.55/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.82:1) price levels, with resistance at the $446.81 (50 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.45:1), $447.03 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.45:1), $453.67 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.25:1) & $459.44 /share (52-Week High; Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.07:1) price levels.

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF fell -1.45% over the past week, closing the week out at their 10 & 50 day moving averages.

Their RSI is slightly above the neutral 50 mark at 52.02, with a MACD that is moving towards a bearish crossover in the coming days.

QQQ’s volume was -26.63% below average this week compared to the year prior’s average volumes (40,800,925 vs. 55,608,119), a sign of uncertainty among market participants & an effort to take some profits off of the table for protection in the near-term.

Their week kicked off similar to SPY’s, except their Monday candle was completely bearish & filled in red; Tuesday featured a spinning top of uncertainty & Wednesday featuring a hanging man candle, indicating further pain was on the near-term horizon.

While Wednesday’s session was able to find support at the area where the 10 & 50 day moving averages meet, Thursday saw them as resistance & closed below them.

Friday’s candlestick sets the tone for a grim week ahead, as it was a gravestone doji that’s upper shadow was able to get above the 10 & 50 day moving averages temporarily, the real body closed very narrowly between the 10 & 50 day moving averages, with all signals pointing bearish.

Their Average True Range also suggests that there is more of a near-term cool down period coming, which is something that investors should keep their eyes peeled to, given that the next level of support is -4.8% lower than the current price, with the following support level coming in -13.1% below the current price.

QQQ has support at the $372.36 (50 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 4.25:1), $354.71 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.33:1), $323.79 (200 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.51:1) & $312.77/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2:1) price levels, with resistance at the $373.54 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 4.25:1), $380.83 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.41:1) & $387.98/share (52-Week High; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.41:1) price levels.

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF fell -1.56% over the past week, faring the worst of the major indexes as investors became weary of small cap names.

Their RSI is on the oversold end of the neutral range at 40.2, but their MACD is currently bearish following a week of declines.

IWM’s trading volume was -14.06% below average compared to the year prior (24,215,050 vs. 28,176,905), which mostly appeared to be profit-taking following their recent run up in late August.

Monday started the week establishing a new resistance level at $191.86, but most of the day’s candle is shadow above the real body, which was supported by their 50 day moving average.

Tuesday was a wide-range day whose candle sat perfectly between the 10 & 50 day moving averages, but the support of the 10 day moving average was broken Wednesday by a bearish spinning top candle, implying hesitancy & uncertainty by market participants.

Thursday & Friday were both down days, but a temporary floor seems to be building where a range may come from for this week while their oscillators return back closer to neutral.

Their ATR is signaling that a new, however temporary price range for consolidation is in order, as it is approaching the bottom of its range & continuing lower as their share price drops.

Given that IWM has traded in a much more range-bound manner than the high-flying SPY & QQQ there should are many more nearby support levels for them to rely on in the event of a decline, however, while there will be some rotation into small cap names, they will ultimately not be immune to any major losses in the S&P 500 or NASDAQ.

IWM has support at the $183.56 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.08:1), $182.41 (200 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.08:1), $181.61 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.02:1) & $179.28 /share (Volume Sentimen t: Sellers, 1.19:1) price levels, with resistance at the $185.44 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.1:1), $186.75 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.15:1), $186.81 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.15:1) & $187.48/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.15:1) price levels.

DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF edged downward -0.14% over the past week, with investor sentiment clearly favoring larger cap stocks.

Their RSI is just below the neutral 50 mark at 48.72, with a MACD that is still bearish despite having been relatively flat for the past week and a half.

Volumes for DIA fell -40.27% from the year prior’s averages (2,174,950 vs. 3,641,279) signaling that investors were skittish & reluctant to be buying, but not unnerved enough to unload shares for profits.

They kicked off the week with a hanging man candle that was filled in, signaling that they opened the day higher than the day prior, but closed below the day’s opening price.

Tuesday they declined but were kept afloat by the 50 day moving average, but Wednesday produced a hammer candle following a gap down that led to a mild recovery on Thursday, with the week closing on an uncertain note with a spinning top candlestick.

Friday’s spinning top has an ominous look to it, with it being unable to break the resistance that they 10 day moving average was providing.

Much like IWM, DIA has traded in a less accelerated manner compared to SPY & QQQ, giving it much closer proximity to support levels compared to its current price.

However, note their ATR in the bottom pane of the chart trending away from their mean as the ETF advanced late in the week, which indicates that there should be a near-term shake up on the horizon.

DIA has support at the $344.96 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.54:1), $343.17 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.46:1), $340.35 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.46:1) & $340.32/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.46:1) price levels, with resistance at the $346.82 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.54:1), $347.53 (50 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.54:1), $351.28 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.03:1) & $356.17/share (52-Week High; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.2:0*) price levels.

U.S. Oil & Gas Exploration & Production (IEO), Energy Momentum (PXI), Mega Cap Growth (MGK) & Turkey (TUR) Are All Bullishly Leading The Market

IEO, the iShares U.S. Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF has climbed +13.53% over the past year, including a +30.56% gain from their 52-week low in March of 2023 (ex-distributions).

Their RSI is currently overbought at 71.74, while their MACD is slightly bullish following the gap up that kicked off last week.

IEO’s trading volume this past week was +67.44% above average compared to the year prior (256,650 vs. 153,279.28), which is interesting as their gap up day was on the week’s weakest volume, Tuesday’s shooting star candle had the highest volume of the week, which has bearish implications in the near-term.

Wednesday’s bearish doji & Thursday’s bearish spinning top candle were the next highest volume days as investors took profits from the early week’s move off of the table.

Friday closed the week out with a shooting star candlestick, sending more bearish signals in the near-term.

Their ATR is signaling that their price wants to remain rangebound here for a while or climb higher & the $98-98.99 support zone will be an area of interest to watch in the coming weeks.

Another thing worth noting is that there may be a bearish head & shoulders pattern emerging that began in mid-August on the final gap up that led to the consolidation range before their current price range.

This will be something for market participants to watch for & to plan appropriate hedging strategies using options, as their +3.66% distribution yield will only cover so much loss prevention for long-term shareholders, especially as if the $98 level is broken there is no support again until just below $96.

IEO has support at the $98.65 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 4.2:0*), $98.15 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 4.2:0*), $95.88 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.4:1) & $94.50/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3:1) price levels, with resistance at the $101.50 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.5:1) & $103.35/share (52-Week High; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.8:1) price levels.

PXI, the Invesco DWA Energy Momentum ETF has advanced +8.14% over the past year, gaining +32.01% since their 52-week low in May of 2023 (ex-distributions).

Their RSI is overbought at 72.83, but their MACD is still bullish following last Monday’s gap up session.

PXI’s volumes were +386.22% above average this past week compared to the year prior (191,850 vs. 39,457.37), which is troubling as their largest volume day was Tuesday, when shareholders took profits following their 2-3 month bull run & final gap up at a rate that eclipsed the rest of the week’s trading sessions.

Tuesday’s session covered a wide range of prices, with little upper shadow following the session’s open, with Wednesday’s session resulting in a doji, meaning more uncertainty among investors.

Thursday continued the uncertainty theme, as the day resulted in a spinning top whose real body resided near the bottom of the day’s range & Friday closed the week off on a bullish day, but in a shooting star candle, signaling that there is some volatility on the horizon.

It is worth keeping an eye on the 10 day moving average, as it is currently the first support level in the window created by last Monday’s gap & how their price behaves around it will dictate whether they consolidate from here or carry on.

With a 3.17% distribution yield there is some protection against losses, however it would be wise to look into hedging options in the near-term.

Another thing to keep an eye on is to see if a head & shoulders pattern is emerging that began in early August following their multi-month price advancement, as that would have bearish implications moving into late September & early October.

PXI has support at the $46.29 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2.46:1), $45.62 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.6:1), $45.43 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.6:1) & $45.19/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.6:1) price levels, with resistance at the $47.78 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers 5.5:1) & $49.45/share (52-Week High; Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 0.2:0*) price levels.

MGK, the Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF has gained +19.42% over the past year, including a +43.77% advance since their 52-week low in October of 2022 (ex-distributions).

Their RSI is currently sitting right above the neutral 50 mark at 53.97, with a bullish MACD that is beginning to signal a bearish crossover is imminent in the coming weeks.

Volumes fell to -50.16% of their annual average in this past week of trading for MGK (175,925 vs. 353,004.78) signaling a bout of uncertainty among market participants.

MGK’s week looked far more like what was seen earlier for SPY & QQQ, with the week kicking off on a filled in black candle, Wednesday’s session finding support from the 10 day moving average & Thursday’s session straddling the 10 & 50 day moving averages.

Friday closed in a spinning top with the real body consolidated at the bottom of the day’s price range, implying more bearishness on the horizon.

Their ATR confirms this, as on Friday’s slightly up session the ATR moved further away from their mean.

MGK has support at the $236.78 (50 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.96:1), $226.21 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.1:1), $207.27 (200 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $202.61/share (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels, with resistance at the $238.82 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.96:1), $243.24 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $245.22/share (52-Week High; Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 5:1) price levels.

TUR, the iShares MSCI Turkey ETF has jumped +62.88% over the past year, improving +84.45% since their 52-week low in September of 2022 (ex-distributions).

Their RSI is currently overbought at 70.33 & their MACD is bullish but beginning to show signs of a bearish crossover.

Last week’s volume was -58.24% lower than the year prior’s average volume for TUR (132,675 vs. 317,673) indicating that investors have become more cautious as they sit at an 52-week high.

Friday closed the week off with a spinning top at the 52-week high & their ATR is signaling that they are due for a cool off in the near-term.

While TUR offers a 3.19% distribution yield, it would be wise to seek hedging options in the near-term while they sit at such a high valuation compared to the year prior.

TUR has support at the $38.19 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.33:1), $36.91 (Volume Sentiment: Even, 1:1), $35.94 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers 1.8:1) & $35.85/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.8:1) price levels, as it currently sits at its 52-week high.

China (YINN), Utilities (UTSL), Rare Earth/Strategic Metals (REMX) & 20+ Year Treasuries (UBT) Are All Bearishly Lagging The Market

YINN, the Direxion Daily FTSE China Bull 3x Shares ETF has declined -48.49% over the past year, dropping -58.3% since their 52-week high in January of 2023, but recovering +56% since their 52-week low in October of 2022 (ex-distributions).

Their RSI is on the oversold end of the neutral range at 41.83 & their MACD is about to crossover bearishly.

This past week’s average volumes increased +43.33% compared to the year prior (2,953,950 vs. 2,060,898.01) as investors were eager to join in Monday’s gap up session & just as eager to take their profits for the rest of the week.

Monday’s candle was a shooting star that could not break the resistance of the 50 day moving average, followed by another on Wednesday before Thursday gapped beneath the 10 day moving average support.

Friday’s dragonfly doji signals that there may be a consolidation range built around their current price level in the near-term.

They offer a 2.84% distribution yield which offers some cushion, but at this price level it will be worth looking to see how they behave as they encounter their support levels.

YINN has support at the $30.48 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.96:1), $28.66 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 9.9:0*), $27.73 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $19.25/share (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels, with resistance at the $31.51 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.19:1), $31.74 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.19:1), $32.80 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.08:1) & $32.89/share (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.08:1) price levels.

UTSL, the Direxion Daily Utilities Bull 3x Shares has fallen -52.66% over the past year, losing -54.97% since their 52-week high in September of 2022, but recovering +9.16% since their 52-week low in September of 2023 (ex-distributions).

Their RSI is at 43.94 with a MACD that is trying to breakout bullishly.

Volumes were +115.01% above average compared to the year prior this past week (198,275 vs. 92,217.53) as Monday & Tuesday’s declines were violent, but investors were eager to buy back in on Wednesday, Thursday & Friday after they reached a new 52-week low.

The 10 day moving average will be an interesting area to keep an eye on in the coming week, to see whether it becomes support & leads them on a bullish run or if it remains resistance & makes UTSL retest their 52-week low.

Their ATR is implying that they may form a consolidation range around current price levels, but with only a 2.75% distribution yield it there is limited protection against additional losses if positions are entered before the range has become more sturdy.

UTSL has support at the $21.75 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2.03:1), $21.56 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2.03:1) & $20.09/share (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels, with resistance at the $22.98 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 3.07:1), $23.36 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.83:1), $23.58 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.83:1) & $23.70/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.83:1) price levels.

REMX, the VanEck Vectors Rare Earth/Strategic Metals ETF has shed -30.97% over the past year, declining -32.36% from their 52-week high in September of 2022, but has inched forward +1.24% since their 52-week low in August of 2023 (ex-distributions).

Their RSI is approaching oversold levels & currently sits at 35.41, as their MACD begins to curl over indicating a bearish crossover is on the horizon.

Last week’s volumes were -15.49% below average compared to the year prior (104,975 vs. 124,220.32) as investors mostly sat on the fence while the share price fluttered near its 52-week low from the end of August.

Friday was a major risk off day in terms of volume compared to the rest of the week, and the candle’s real body is a bit too large to be a hanging man, but it looks ready to set the tone for more declines going into this week.

With a modest 1.68% distribution yield, a wait & see approach would be better than following their ATR back to the mean assuming that they begin some form of rally, as there is limited support here & it is the 52-week low.

REMX has support at the $69.57 (52-Week Low; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), with resistance at the $71.33 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2.33:1), $73.05 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.43:1), $73.23 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.43:1) & $74.36/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 4.1:0*) price levels.

UBT, the ProShares Ultra 20+ Year Treasury ETF has lost -26.34% over the past year, falling -28.44% since their 52-week high in December of 2022, while reclaiming +4.79% since their 52-week low in October of 2022 (ex-distributions).

Their RSI is reverting back to neutral & sits at 42.54 with a MACD that is still bullish, but losing steam & looking ready to cross over bearishly.

Volumes last week were -46.02% below average compared to the year prior (52,000 vs. 96,649.8) as investors took a wait & see approach after Tuesday’s gap down below the ten day moving average put them within a few percent of their 52-week low.

Friday closed the week out with a gravestone doji that occurred on a gap up, following Thursday’s hanging man candle that completed a harami pattern with Wednesday’s candle, which indicates there is more bearish sentiment on the horizon.

Coupled with their ATR moving away from the mean over the last 3 days of last week which were advancing days & the fact that the 52-week low is so close by, there appears to be better entries on the horizon after they cool off more, or establish more support & a trading range around these levels.

As their distribution yield is only 2.12%, there is not much in the form of protection against further losses from these price levels.

UBT has support at the $21 (Current Price & Additional Support Touch-Point; Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.5:1), $20.65 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $20.36 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $20.05/share (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels, with resistance at the $21.15 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.5:1), $21.29 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.5:1), $22.11 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.13:1) & $22.42/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.13:1) price levels.

The Week Ahead

Monday starts off on a quiet note in terms of economic data, with nothing set to be reported.

Oracle is scheduled to report earnings results on Monday, along with Casey’s General & FuelCell Energy.

Tuesday features the NFIB Optimism Index data being reported at 6 am with a slow day on the earnings report front.

Consumer Price Index, Core CPI, CPI (Year-over-Year) & Core CPI (Year-over-Year) are all set to be reported on Wednesday morning at 8:30 am.

Cracker Barrel Old Country Store & REV Group are scheduled to report earnings on Wednesday.

Initial Jobless Claims, Producer Price Index, Core PPI, PPI (Year-over-Year), Core PPI (Year-over-Year), U.S. Retail Sales & Retail Sales minus Autos are scheduled to be reported on Thursday at 8:30 am, followed by Business Inventories numbers at 10 am.

Thursday’s earnings reports include Adobe, Korn/Ferry & Lennar.

Friday kicks off with U.S. Import Prices & Empire State Manufacturing Survey data at 8:30 am, followed by Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization data at 9:15 am & the week closes out on the data-front with Consumer Sentiment (preliminary) data at 10 am with no earnings reports of note scheduled.

See you back here next week!

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM, DIA, IEO, PXI, MGK, TUR, YINN, UTSL, REMX, or UBT AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***

Major indexes in the stock market are all quietly retreating from 52-week highs as investors take their profits, earnings reports continue to come in & people prepare for the month of September, which tends to be a bad month for stocks.

Given how stretched out support levels are for the S&P 500 (SPY) & NASDAQ (QQQ) & how consolidated the price levels of the Russell 2000 (IWM) & Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA) are, it’s important to have an understanding of volume sentiment at the various price levels each index has been at in recent history.

This way, it is easier to understand how market participants will behave when each index approaches price levels that are support or resistance.

In the case of SPY & QQQ it is even more essential, as with so much space between support levels there is a lot of room for error.

The article below gives a brief technical analysis breakdown for SPY, QQQ, IWM & DIA, as well as lists out their volumes at each price level that they have traded at in recent history, noting the ratio of buyers:sellers (or sellers:buyers).

There is also a chart that displays the candlesticks & some technical indicators for the time period that each ETF’s prices:volumes cover.

On the images of the table, the current price level will be in BOLD & its cells will have bold edges.

In the list that accompanies them the current support & resistance levels will be in BOLD & the current price level, 10, 50 & 200 Day Moving Averages will also be denoted.

This is not trading advice, but is meant to serve as an additional tool that may help you navigate the future market environment.

Technical Analysis & Price:Volume Sentiment Analysis Of The S&P 500 (SPY)

The S&P 500 (SPY) is just -2.24% below its 52-week high it reached about one month ago & has been in a consolidation range since the end of July.

Their RSI is on the overbought end of the neutral range, sitting at 56.84, with their MACD trying to crossover bullishly in the coming days.

Trading volumes over the past month have fallen -9.85% compared to the average for the year prior (76,433,609.09 vs. 84,789,231.87) as market participants had been taking profits off of the table, but have increased to -4.74% below average over the past week (80,766,700 vs. 84,789,231.87).

The uptick in volume this week comes with a catch, as the second highest volume day was a bearish engulfing candle last Thursday, and the highest volume day resulted in a spinning top after it, indicating indecision among market participants last Friday (there was also a spinning top to kick off the week this Monday).

While yesterday’s session was able to break above their 50 day moving average, the market will need some catalyst to keep driving higher in the near-term.

It is also worth noting that a bearish head & shoulders pattern began to emerge from SPY’s chart last week, which will be something to keep an eye on in the coming weeks.

Given that the next level of support aside from the 10 & 50 day moving averages for SPY is -3.36% below their current price & the next level below that is -7.57% below the price, the table below will be helpful for gauging how market participants will behaved by volume at each price level that they have traded at over the past 1-2 years.

I have included a 2 year chart as well to help visualize how the volume looked in relation to the chart.

$472 – NULL – 0:0*; +5.09% From Current Price Level

$468 – NULL – 0:0*; +4.19% From Current Price Level

$464 – Buyers – 1.25:1; +3.3% From Current Price Level

$460 – Buyers – 0.3:0*; +2.41% From Current Price Level

$456 – Sellers – 1.07:1; +1.52% From Current Price Level

$452 – Buyers – 1.25:1; +0.63% From Current Price Level

$448 – Sellers – 1.91:1; -0.26% From Current Price Level – Current Price Level

$444 – Buyers – 1.45:1; -1.15% From Current Price Level – 50 Day Moving Average

$440 – Buyers – 2.43:1; -2.04% From Current Price Level – 10 Day Moving Average

$436 – Sellers – 1.17:1; -2.93% From Current Price Level

$432 – Buyers – 1.23:1; -3.82% From Current Price Level

$428 – Sellers – 1.10:1; -4.71% From Current Price Level

$424 – Sellers – 1.7:1; -5.6% From Current Price Level

$420 – Buyers – 1.04:1; -6.49% From Current Price Level

$416 – Buyers – 1.49:1; -7.38% From Current Price Level

$412 – Buyers – 1.6:1; -8.27% From Current Price Level – 200 Day Moving Average

$408 – Buyers 1.13:1; -9.16% From Current Price Level

$404 – Sellers – 1.82:1; -10.05% From Current Price Level

$400 – Sellers – 1.12:1; -10.94% From Current Price Level

$396 – Buyers – 2.04:1; -11.84% From Current Price Level

$392 – Buyer s- 2.04:1; -12.73% From Current Price Level

$388 – Sellers – 1.33:1; -13.62% From Current Price Level

$384 – Sellers – 3.23:1; -14.51% From Current Price Level

$380 – Sellers – 1.63:1; -15.4% From Current Price Level

$376 – Sellers – 2.4:1; -16.29% From Current Price Level

$372 – Sellers – 1.69:1; -17.18% From Current Price Level

$368 – Sellers – 1.28:1; -18.07% From Current Price Level

$364 – Sellers – 2.08:1; -18.96% From Current Price Level

$360 – Buyers – 1.67:1; -19.85% From Current Price Level

$356 – Sellers – 4:1; -20.74% From Current Price Level

$352 – Sellers – 3.2:0*; -21.63% From Current Price Level

$348 – NULL – 0:0*; -22.52% From Current Price Level

Technical Analysis & Price:Volume Sentiment Analysis Of The NASDAQ (QQQ)

The NASDAQ (QQQ) is currently -3.4% below its 52-week high which occurred in mid-July.

Much like SPY, they have been consolidating over the past month & a half & have been relatively range-bound.

Their RSI is also on the overbought end of the neutral range at 56.92, with their MACD slightly bullish.

QQQ’s volume story is interesting, with the past week’s volumes rising +2.58% higher than the average for the past year (57,473,620 vs. 56,025,471.31) after the past month’s average volume dipped -4.93% below average (53,264,047.83 vs. 56,025,471.31) as investors trimmed profits & took a wait & see approach into earnings season.

Their chart is very similar to SPY’s, with last Thursday’s bearish engulfing candlestick being the second highest volume day of the past week & Friday’s spinning top candlestick signaling “popular indecision” & having the week’s highest volume.

This week kicked off Monday with a dragonfly doji that was barely supported by the 10 day moving average on weak volume, signaling there is likely more near-term volatility on the horizon.

Also like SPY, QQQ began showing signs of a bearish head & shoulders pattern throughout their range-bound August decline, which will be something to keep an eye on in the coming weeks.

Aside from QQQ’s 10 & 50 day moving averages, their next level of support from the current price is -5.35% below their current price & the next highest level from there is -14.45% below the current price (200 day moving average).

The charts & price:volume list below shows how their trading volume has been at each price-range that they have traded at over the past 2-3 years & there is a 3 year candlestick chart for an additional visual below.

$404 – NULL – 0:0*; +10.98% From Current Price Level

$400 – NULL – 0:0*; +9.88% From Current Price Level

$396 – Buyers – 0.6:0*; +8.79% From Current Price Level

$392 – Sellers – 0.8:0*; +7.69% From Current Price Level

$388 – NULL – 0:0*; +6.59% From Current Price Level

$384 – Buyers – 1.4:1; +5.49% From Current Price Level

$380 – Buyers – 1.41:1; +4.39% From Current Price Level

$376 – Buyers – 1.21:1; +3.29% From Current Price Level

$372 – Sellers – 4.25:1; +2.19% From Current Price Level – Current Price Level

$368 – Buyers – 8.2:1; +1.09% From Current Price Level – 50 Day Moving Average

$364 – Buyers – 1.10:1; -0.01% From Current Price Level – 10 Day Moving Average

$360 – Sellers – 1.38:1; -1.1% From Current Price Level

$356 – Sellers – 2.57:1; -2.2% From Current Price Level

$352 – Buyers – 2.33:1; -3.3% From Current Price Level

$348 – Sellers – 1.03:1; -4.4% From Current Price Level

$344 – Sellers – 1.22:1; -5.5% From Current Price Level

$340 – Buyers – 1.16:1; -6.6% From Current Price Level

$336 – Sellers – 1.37:1; -7.7% From Current Price Level

$332 – Sellers – 4:1; -8.8% From Current Price Level

$328 – Buyers – 1.05:1; -9.9% From Current Price Level

$324 – Buyers – 2.48:1; -10.99% From Current Price Level

$320 – Sellers – 1.51:1; -12.09% From Current Price Level – 200 Day Moving Average

$316 – Sellers – 1.29:1; -13.19% From Current Price Level

$312 – Sellers – 2:1; -14.29% From Current Price Level

$308 – Buyers – 1.32:1; -15.39% From Current Price Level

$304 – Buyers – 1.04:1; -16.49% From Current Price Level

$300 – Sellers – 1.76:1; -17.59% From Current Price Level

$296 – Buyers – 2.77:1; -18.69% From Current Price Level

$292 – Buyers – 1.47:1; -19.78% From Current Price Level

$288 – Sellers – 1.875:1; -20.88% From Current Price Level

$284 – Sellers – 1.78:1; -21.98% From Current Price Level

$280 – Buyers – 1.21:1; -23.08% From Current Price Level

$276 – Sellers – 1.40:1; -24.18% From Current Price Level

$272 – Sellers – 1.03:1; -25.28% From Current Price Level

$268 – Sellers – 1.5:1; -26.38% From Current Price Level

$264 – Sellers – 1.26:1; -27.48% From Current Price Level

$260 – Sellers – 3.4:1; -28.58% From Current Price Level

$256 – Sellers – 2.2:0*; -29.67% From Current Price Level

Technical Analysis & Price:Volume Sentiment Analysis Of The Russell 2000 (IWM)

The Russell 2000 (IWM) is currently -5.29% below their 52-week high that occurred on July 31,2023.

Their RSI is neutral at 49.9, with a bearish MACD that is beginning to show signs of potentially completing a bullish crossover in the coming days.

Trading volumes for the past week have been -12.86% below average compared to the year prior (24,613,560 vs. 28,245,386.45) & the past month’s average volumes have been -12.29% below the year prior’s average (24,773,543.48 vs. 28,245,386.45).

This signal of waning enthusiasm also occurred during a steep decline for IWM from profit taking off of the 52-week high, however their support levels along the way did not show much signs of strength in the decline.

Friday’s long-legged doji signaled severe indecision to close out the week, on high volume compared to the other days & Monday’s session resulted in a shooting star candle, which signals bearish sentiment.

However, the shooting star was supported by the 10 day moving average, but that session & yesterday’s were both on mediocre volume, which does not confirm bullish sentiment behind either days’ advances.

IWM has traded at a much less accelerated pace compared to SPY & QQQ, so it has more support levels nearby than the previous two mentioned ETFs, but it too has begun to show signs of a bearish head & shoulders pattern since the middle of August.

Below are the lists of the volumes at each of the price levels IWM has traded at over the past 1-2 years, as well as a 2 year candlestick chart to help better visualize how their support levels may hold up in the coming weeks.

$204 – NULL – 0:0*; +8.38% From Current Price Level

$200 – NULL – 0:0*; +6.25% From Current Price Level

$198 – Buyers – 0.8:0*; +5.19% From Current Price Level

$196 – Buyers – 2.5:1; +4.13% From Current Price Level

$194 – Sellers – 1.94:1; +3.07% From Current Price Level

$192 – Buyers – 2.09:1; +2% From Current Price Level

$190 – Buyers – 1.47:1; +0.94% From Current Price Level

$188 – Buyers – 3.57:1; -0.12% From Current Price Level – Current Price Level & 50 Day Moving Average

$186 – Buyers – 3.15:1; -1.18% From Current Price Level

$184 – Sellers – 1.10:1; -2.25% From Current Price Level – 10 Day Moving Average

$182 – Buyers – 1.08:1; -3.31% From Current Price Level – 200 Day Moving Average

$180 – Sellers – 1.02:1; -4.37% From Current Price Level

$178 – Sellers – 1.19:1; -5.43% From Current Price Level

$176 – Buyers – 1.71:1; -6.5% From Current Price Level

$174 – Buyers – 1.3:1; -7.56% From Current Price Level

$172 – Sellers – 1.9:1; -8.62% From Current Price Level

$170 – Even – 1:1; -9.68% From Current Price Level

$168 – Sellers – 1.6:1; -10.75% From Current Price Level

$166 – Sellers – 4.1:1; -11.81% From Current Price Level

$164 – Sellers – 2.8:1; -12.87% From Current Price Level

$162 – Sellers – 1.31:1; -13.94% From Current Price Level

Technical Analysis & Price:Volume Sentiment Analysis Of The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA)

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA) is currently trading -2.12% below its 52-week high from the end of July 2023.

Their RSI is neutral at 53.1, with a bearish MACD that looks to be trying to turn bullish in the coming days if they can keep up the gains of the past few sessions.

Their trading volume over the past month has declined -10.55% compared to the average volume of the past year (3,275,478.26 vs. 3,661,896.81), with this past week’s volume falling even further to -13.69% below the year prior’s average (3,160,440 vs. 3,661,896.81).

Much like SPY & QQQ, DIA’s strongest volume days of the week were Friday & Monday.

Thursday they were unable to stay above their 10 & 50 day moving averages & ultimately closed below their open, and Friday resulted in a spinning top candlestick that tested lower lows than Thursday’s session.

Monday’s gap up with on very limited volume, which is also a sign of potential weakness on the horizon.

DIA’s 10 & 50 day moving averages are two of their next three levels of support, but do not look particularly strong.

The tables below outline their volume at each price level that they’ve traded at over the past 3-4 years & I have included a 4 year chart below as well.

$356 – Buyers – 0.2:0*; +2.12% From Current Price Level

$352 – Buyers – 1.73:1; +0.97% From Current Price Level

$348 – Sellers – 1.03:1; -0.18% From Current Price Level – Current Share Price Level

$344 – Buyers – 1.54:1; -1.33% From Current Price Level – 10 & 50 Day Moving Average

$340 – Buyers – 1.46:1; -2.47% From Current Price Level

$336 – Buyers – 1.32:1; -3.62% From Current Price Level

$332 – Sellers – 1.18:1; -4.77% From Current Price Level – 200 Day Moving Average

$328 – Buyers – 1.02:1; -5.91% From Current Price Level

$324 – Sellers – 1.34:1; -7.06% From Current Price Level

$320 – Sellers – 1.24:1; -8.21% From Current Price Level

$316 – Sellers – 1.46:1; -9.36% From Current Price Level

$312 – Buyers – 1.16:1; -10.5% From Current Price Level

$308 – Buyers – 1.63:1; -11.65% From Current Price Level

$304 – Sellers – 1.2:1; -12.8% From Current Price Level

$300 – Buyers – 1.53:1; -13.95% From Current Price Level

$296 – Sellers – 1.13:1; -15.09% From Current Price Level

$292 – Sellers – 1.86:1; -16.24% From Current Price Level

$288 – Buyers – 1.56:1; -17.39% From Current Price Level

$284 – Sellers – 1.32:1; -18.54% From Current Price Level

$280 – Buyers – 1.43:1; -19.68% From Current Price Level

$276 – Buyers – 2:1; -20.83% From Current Price Level

$272 – Even – 1:1; -21.98% From Current Price Level

$268 – Buyers – 1.5:1; -23.13% From Current Price Level

$264 – Buyers – 2.83:1; -24.27% From Current Price Level

$260 – Sellers – 1.75:1; -25.42% From Current Price Level

$256 – Buyers – 2:1; -26.57% From Current Price Level

$252 – Buyers – 2.08:1; -27.71% From Current Price Level

$248 – Buyers – 4:1; -28.86% From Current Price Level

$244 – Buyers 1.38:1; -30.01% From Current Price Level

$240 – Buyers – 2.86:1; -31.16% From Current Price Level

$236 – Sellers – 1.6:0*; -32.3% From Current Price Level

$232 – Buyers – 0.2:0*; -33.45% From Current Price Level

$228 – Buyers – 1.22:1; -34.6% From Current Price Level

$224 – Buyers – 9:1; -35.75% From Current Price Level

$220 – Buyers – 2.15:1; -36.89% From Current Price Level

$216 – Sellers – 1.1:0*; -38.04% From Current Price Level

$212 – Buyers – 1.1:0*; -39.19% From Current Price Level

$208 – NULL – 0:0*; -40.34% From Current Price Level

Tying It All Together

The lists & images above paint the picture as to how investors & traders have behaved at various price levels that SPY, QQQ, IWM & DIA have been at in recent history.

It is not meant to serve as investment/trading advice, and is simply a way to visualize what investor/trader sentiment has been like at each of the price levels mentioned, as well as what it was at levels of support & resistance that are denoted in the images & lists.

As always, do your own due diligence before making investing/trading decisions.

For more on the methodology on how the data was collected & put together, please refer to our original Price:Volume analysis.

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OF NOR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM, or DIA AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF advanced +0.14% this past week, faring the best of the major indexes.

Their RSI is trying to trend back to neutral & sits on the oversold end of neutral at 45.08, with a bearish MACD that is trying to curl up bullishly.

Volumes were -7.6% below the average for the year prior (78,304,857 vs. 84,743,675) signaling indecision among market participants, but the candlesticks tell a different story.

The week began & ended on spinning top candles, but Thursday’s bearish engulfing candlestick painted the picture that this week & next will likely see some cooling off in SPY’s share price.

The appearance of a bearish head & shoulders pattern is something to be watching out for from a technical perspective.

SPY has support at the $433.01 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.23:1), $415.18 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.57:1), $411.52 (200 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.10:1) & $405.55/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.78:1) price levels, with resistance at the $440.08 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.47:1), $444.73 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.43:1) & $459.44/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.09:1) price levels.

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF nudged forward +0.03% this past week, faring second best out of the major indexes.

Their RSI is trending back towards neutral, but sits on the oversold end at 45.72, with a MACD that is trying to cross over bullishly in the coming days.

Volumes were +1.22% above average compared to the year prior (56,710,367 vs. 56,026,726), which is not particularly noteworthy.

However, Thursday’s bearish engulfing candle & Friday’s spinning top signal that there is hesitancy on the part of market participants & is signaling more near-term declines on the horizon.

QQQ is also beginning to show signs of developing a bearish head & shoulders pattern in the coming week or two, which is something to keep an eye on.

QQQ has support at the $363.76 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.06:1), $354.71 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.33:1), $319.54 (200 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.29:1) & $312.77/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.94:1) price levels, with resistance overhead at the $370.54 (50 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 9.33:1), $372.74 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2.9:0*) & $387.98/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.7:0*) price levels.

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF declined -0.21% this past week, faring worse than the S&P 500 & NASDAQ, but outperforming their larger cap peers of the DJIA.

Their RSI is trying to trend back towards neutral, but sits currently at 37.5 with a bearish MACD that is attempting to smoothen out & cross over bullishly.

Volumes were -14.04% below average compared to the year prior (24,227,429 vs. 28,184,020) as investors were not feeling particularly up for taking risks in the week’s trading range.

Monday’s spinning top set the stage for uncertainty, while the week closed Friday with a dragonfly doji that temporarily broke below their 200 day moving average during the day’s session, indicating another leg lower may be on the horizon.

The downwards pressure of the 10 day moving average looks primed to force a harder test of the 200 DMA as support in the near-term, which may see us finding a third index with a bearish head & shoulders pattern in the coming weeks.

IWM has support at the $183.56 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.05:1), $182.14 (200 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.05:1), $179.28 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.13:1) & $175.34/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.30:1) price levels, with resistance at the $185.42 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.14:1) $185.44 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.14:1), $186.81 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.17:1) & $187.48/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.17:1) price levels.

DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF fell -0.34% this past week, as the larger cap stocks in this index fell the most out of favor in the market & many investors were eager to take profits & risk off of the table.

Their RSI is trending back towards neutral & sits at 42.38 currently, but their MACD is still bearish.

Volumes were -10.98% below average compared to the year prior (3,261,314 vs. 3,663,626) as there had already been signs of profit taking in the weeks leading up to last week.

Monday kicked the week off with a hanging man candlestick, which is not a good sign & the index continued lower into the rest of the week, closing out on Friday with an indecisive spinning top candle following Thursday’s thwarted attempt to break out beyond the 10 & 50 day moving averages serving currently as resistance.

DIA has support at the $343.17 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.32:1), $340.32 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.32:1), $339.60 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.33:1) & $339.28/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.33:1) price levels, with resistance at the $344.96 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.17:1), $345.57 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.17:1), $346.07 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.17:1) & $356.17/share (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

Dynamic Oil & Gas Services (PXJ), Homebuilders (XHB), Natural Gas (FCG) & Japan Hedged Equity (DBJP) Are All Bullishly Leading The Market

PXJ, the Invesco Dynamic Oil & Gas Services ETF has climbed +35.99% over the past year, including a +65.04% improvement from their 52-week low in September of 2022 (ex-distributions).

Their MACD is bearish, with a neutral reading on their RSI at 52.1.

Last week’s volume was extremely light, -80.25% compared to the year prior’s average (13,511.6 vs. 68,428.64), as investors took a wait & see approach after the week prior’s profit taking from their recent 52-week high.

Their moving averages are going to be a key area to watch in the coming weeks, as their 10 DMA is adding downward pressure against their price & the 50 DMA will need to serve as a support level soon.

While they offer a 1.17% distribution yield, that is not much downside protection & investors should begin to think of hedging options in the event that the move to the downside continues, such as selling calls or buying puts.

PXJ has support at the $28.43 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.55:1), $27.80 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.63:1), $27.57 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.63:1) & $27.37/share (50 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.63:1), with resistance at the $28.88 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.55:1), $29.10 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 4.5:1), $29.63 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 4.5:1) & $30.40/share (52-Week High; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

XHB, the SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF has advanced +24.59% over the past year, climbing +49.71% since their 52-week low in October of 2022 (ex-distributions).

Their RSI is trending towards oversold & currently sits at 39.2, with a bearish MACD.

Volumes jumped +16.78% this past week compared to the year prior’s average volume (3,666,170.4 vs. 3,139,319.25), but were not as severe as the prior week’s volumes when investors were taking profits from their recent 52-week high’s consolidation range.

Tuesday’s candlestick was a spinning top which signals indecision by investors & the week ended on an interesting note, as prices opened & closed near the highs of the day’s session, but did retreat below the $78 level for part of the day, which indicates that they may test that level again in the near-term.

It would be wise to look into a hedging strategy, such as selling calls or buying puts in the near-term, as their 0.89% distribution yield does not provide much protection against losses.

XHB has support at the $72.91 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.8:0*), $72.61 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.8:0*), $70.05 (200 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.23:1) & $68.97/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2.05:1) price levels, with resistance at the $80.65 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 5:1), $81.31 (50 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.3:0*) & $85.13/share (52-Week High; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.2:0*) price levels.

FCG, the First Trust Natural Gas ETF has dipped -2.05% over the past year, rising +26.97% from their 52-week low in March of 2023 (ex-distributions).

Their RSI is neutral at 54.59, but their MACD is bearish.

This past week’s volumes were -75.81% below average compared to the year prior (166,388.6 vs. 687,916.44) as investors took a breather to let the market sort out where FCG is currently valued.

Last week began on a spinning top, before a gap down on Wednesday that closed in a spinning top as there is still much uncertainty about their current value.

Thursday’s session closed in a gravestone doji which signals further declines are on the horizon & Friday’s spinning top’s high price was unable to penetrate the resistance of their 10-day moving average.

This makes it important to be looking for a near-term hedging strategy for any existing positions, as there are other signals of an impending decline on their chart.

FCG has support at the $25.61 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.78:1), $25.58 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.78:1), $25.41 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.78:1) & $25.39/share (Volume Sentiment Buyers, 1.78:1) price levels, with resistance at the $25.83 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.78:1), $25.94 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.78:1), $26.42 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.31:1) & $26.84/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.31:1) price levels.

DBJP, the Deutsche X-trackers MSCI Japan Hedged Equity ETF has gained +21.83% over the past year, climbing +24.7% from their 52-week low in October of 2023 (ex-distributions).

Their RSI is currently neutral at 52.72 & their MACD is set to cross over bullishly in the coming days after they posted a positive week last week.

Volumes were down -48.76% this past week compared to the year prior (15,220.2 vs. 29,703.97) which casts a shadow of doubt on their performance last week, particular as Monday’s session kicked off with a gap up hanging man & Friday’s session ended in a spinning top.

Wednesday’s doji confirms additionally that there is still a lot to be uncertain about on the part of investors for DBJP.

Their 5.31% distribution yield for long-term holders is a decent amount of cushion against losses, but it would be wise to be vigilant & think about hedging options while waiting to see how they behave at their 10 & 50 day moving averages.

Their 10 DMA is currently below the price, but its angle does not look primed to provide much in the way of support, and the 50 DMA is acting as resistance.

DBJP has support at the $58.23 (50 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $57.89 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $57.62 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $57.45/share (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels, with resistance at the $59.31 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $59.33 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $59.41 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $59.82/share (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

Real Estate (DRN), Hong Kong (EWH), Space (UFO) & Community Banks (QABA) Are All Bearishly Lagging The Market

DRN, the Direxion Daily Real Estate Bull 3x ETF has fallen -51.12% over the past year, losing -52.51% since their 52-week high in August of 2022, but regaining +14.85% since their 52-week low in October of 2022 (ex-distributions).

Their RSI is currently trending back towards neutral after being oversold & sits at 39.76 & their MACD is primed to cross over bullishly in the coming days.

Last weeks trading volume was -13.58% below the past year’s average volume (500,369.2 vs. 578,975.18) which does little along the lines of confirming their rise in price.

Monday’s hammer candlestick paved the way for their short advance during the week, however Friday’s doji is not a sign of confidence among market participants for the near-term.

While they offer a 3.19% distribution yield, it would be smart to begin exploring what hedging options are available for the coming weeks.

DRN has support at the $8.40 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.27:1), $8.34 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.27:1), $8.33 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.27:1) & $8.22/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.27:1) price levels, with resistance at the $8.62 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.03:1), $8.67 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.03:1), $8.82 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.03:1) & $8.93/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.03:1) price levels.

EWH, the iShares MSCI Hong Kong ETF has lost -13.29% over the past year, dropping -22.25% since their 52-week high in August of 2022, but reclaiming 9.79% since their 52-week low in October of 2022 (ex-distributions).

Their RSI is in oversold territory at 29.36 with a bearish MACD after spending the month of August in decline.

Last week’s volume were -23.41% below par, compared to the past year’s average volume (2,385,526.6 vs. 3,114,788.62), as their share price was able to consolidate a bit & begin to establish a range to halt the decline.

Their 3.37% distribution yield provides some protection against further decline, but this is another instance of needing to tread lightly & wait & see where the market goes next while exploring hedging options.

EWH has support at the $17.60 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.31:1), $17.31 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.74:1) & $15.58/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.03:1) price levels, with resistance at the $17.80 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.31:1), $18.27 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.31:1), $18.51 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.05:1) & $18.60/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.05:1) price levels.

UFO, the Procure Space ETF has declined -16.98% over the past year, losing -18.92% since their 52-week high in August of 2022 & inching +0.74% from their recent 52-week low (ex-distributions).

Their RSI is oversold at 26.61, with their MACD still in bearish freefall following a rough August.

Last week’s volume was -27.51% below the average volume for the past year (6,773 vs. 9,343.51), as investors became more cautious once their price got within 3% of their 52-week low.

Wednesday’s candle did flash a warning sign of additional declines as it was a gravestone doji, while we wait to see how Friday’s hammer candle sets the tone for this week.

They offer a 2.44% distribution yield, which will not provide much downside protection in the event that they do test their 52-week low in the near-term.

UFO has support at the $17.55 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 0.2:0*), $17.42 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.1:0*) & $17.35/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.1:0*) price levels, with resistance at the $17.88 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 0.2:0*), $18.34 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2.67:1), $18.36 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2.67:1) & $18.45/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2.67:1) price levels.

QABA, the First Trust NASDAQ ABA Community Bank Index Fund ETF has shed -22.28% over the past year, declining -28.07% from their 52-week high in November of 2022 & has rebounded +20.44% from their 52-week low in May of 2023 (ex-distributions).

Their RSI is trending towards oversold territory & currently sits at 37.36 & their MACD is bearish.

Last week’s volume was -76.95% below the past year’s average (8,712.6 vs. 37,796.28), as investors mostly stood on the sidelines & watched their price dip under their 50 DMA & consolidate into a range just beneath it.

The 10 DMA is applying pressure from above which will be something to keep an eye on in the coming week.

Their 3.01% distribution yield offers some relief from further losses, but with their current chart layout this seems better suited to be watched for a while or to pursue hedging options to protect existing positions.

QABA has support at the $41.05 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.08:1), $39.66 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.05:1), $38.45 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2:1) & $36.83/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 10:1) price levels, with resistance at the $41.85 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.08:1), $42.59 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.11:1), $42.61 (50 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.11:1) & $43.14/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.21:1) price levels.

Tying It All Together

Monday has no economic data set to be reported, but HEICO will be reporting earnings.

Tuesday kicks the week off on the economic data front with S&P Case Shiller Home Price Index (20 Cities) at 9 am, followed by Job Openings & Consumer Confidence at 10 am.

Ambarella, American Woodmark, Best Buy, Big Lots, Box, Catalent, Donaldson, Hewlett Packard Enterprise, HP, J.M. Smucker, Malibu Boats, NIO, Pinduoduo, PVH & ZTO Express are all reporting earnings on Tuesday.

Wednesday starts with ADP Employment data at 8:15 am, followed by GDP (revision), Advanced U.S. Trade Balance In Goods, Advanced Retail Inventories & Advanced Wholesale Inventories data at 8:30 am & closes out with Pending Home Sales data at 10 am.

Salesforce, Brown-Forman, Chewy, Conn’s, Cooper, CrowdStrike, Five Below, MasterCraft, Okta, Patterson Companies, Veeva Systems & Victoria’s Secret all report earnings on Wednesday.

Thursday morning is a busy one, with Initial Jobless Claims, Personal Income (nominal), Personal Spending (nominal), PCE Index, Core PCE Index, PCE (year-over-year) & Core PCE (year-over-year) at 8:30 am & Chicago Business Barometer data at 9:45 am.

Thursday’s earnings calls include Dell Technologies, Lululemon Athletica, Academy Sports + Outdoors, Broadcom, BRP, Caleres, Campbell Soup, Dollar General, Genesco, Hello Group, Hormel Foods, MongoDB, Nutanix, Ollie’s Bargain Outlet, Signet Jewelers, Titan Machinery, VMWare & UBS.

Friday delivers the U.S. Nonfarm Payroll, U.S. Unemployment Rate, U.S. Hourly Wages, & Hourly Wages Year-over-Year data at 8:30 am, followed by ISM Manufacturing & Construction Spending data at 10 am & no scheduled major earnings reports.

See you back here next week!

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