Author: OptimizedValue

As I pointed out in last night’s weekly market review note, the S&P 500 & NASDAQ are at 52-week highs & the Russell 2000 & Dow Jones Industrial Average are near theirs.

RSI’s are all flashing overbought signals & we are entering earnings season, one which many analysts have reported would likely be weaker than anticipated.

At times like these, it is important to have an understanding of what the landscape beneath current pricing levels looks like, both in terms of the technicals on a chart & in sentiment of investors.

The following Price:Volume Sentiment analysis breaks down investor sentiments at the price levels that SPY (SPDR S&P 500 ETF), QQQ (Invesco QQQ Trust ETF, which tracks the NASDAQ), IWM (iShares Russell 2000 ETF) & DIA (SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF) have traded at over the past one-to-three years.

It can be used as a barometer that gauges how market participants have felt at various times during that period when the securities’ prices were within the box-ranges listed below.

The bold prices on the images & lists below denote the moving average levels just listed & the bold entries in the list form of the analysis under the images include other levels of support.

Each corresponding price level has a ratio of Buyers:Sellers (or Sellers:Buyers), NULL values denote that there was not enough data, so the ratio would’ve been 0:0.

Ratios with a 0 for the denominator/constant are denoted with an *, but are reported as is, as we are accounting for volume/sentiment.

Also, as there is such a wide spread between many price levels having activity data, many of the levels are marked NULL, as there was limited volume data for them, and they were not included in the long lists below unless they were relevant to support/resistance levels.

The following is meant to serve as a reference to how market participants have behaved historically at these price levels & is neither investment advice nor recommendations of any kind.

Price:Volume Sentiment Analysis For SPY, The SPDR S&P 500 ETF

Last week SPY gapped up on Wednesday to a new price range, however the volumes behind the week’s trading was lacluster.

With an overbought RSI, wise investors/traders who are in SPY should begin looking into their support levels.

For the detailed chart breakdown, please see last night’s post here.

The data below can serve as a tool to help investors figure out how price may behave at each price level should the index return to it.

SPY ETF’s Volume Sentiment By Price Level

(*BOLD denotes a Moving Average)
$472 – NULL – 0:0*; 5.06% From Current Price

$468 – NULL – 0:0*; 4.17% From Current Price

$464 – Buyers – 1.2:1; 3.28% From Current Price

$460 – Sellers – 2:1; 2.39% From Current Price

$456 – Buyers – 1.09:1; 1.5% From Current Price

$452 – Sellers – 1.2:1; 0.61% From Current Price

$448 – Sellers – 1.3:0*; -0.28% From Current Price

$444 – Buyers – 1.43:1; -1.18% From Current Price

$440 – Buyers – 2.47:1; -2.07% From Current Price

$436 – Even – 1:1; -2.96% From Current Price

$432 – Buyers – 1.23:1; -3.85% From Current Price

$428 – Seller s- 1.10:1; -4.74% From Current Price

$424 – Sellers – 1.70:1; -5.63% From Current Price

$420 – Buyers – 1.391; -6.52% From Current Price

$416 – Buyers – 1.43:1; -7.41% From Current Price

$412 – Buyers – 1.57:1; -8.3% From Current Price

$408 – Buyers – 1.10:1; -9.19% From Current Price

$404 – Sellers – 1.78:1; -10.08% From Current Price

$400 – Sellers – 1.12:1; -10.97% From Current Price

$396 – Buyers – 1.92:1; -11.86% From Current Price

$392 – Buyers – 2.04:1; -12.75% From Current Price

$388 – Sellers – 1.33:1; -13.64% From Current Price

$384 – Sellers – 3.38:1; -14.53% From Current Price

$380 – Sellers – 1.67:1; -15.42% From Current Price

$376 – Sellers – 2.4:1; -16.31% From Current Price

$372 – Sellers – 1.65:1; -17.2% From Current Price

$368 – Sellers – 1.28:1; -18.09% From Current Price

$364 – Sellers – 2.33:1; -18.98% From Current Price

$360 – Buyers – 1.67:1; -19.87% From Current Price

$356 – Sellers – 4:1; -20.76% From Current Price

$352 – Sellers – 3.2:0*; -21.65% From Current Price

$348 – NULL – 0:0*; -22.54% From Current Price

Price:Volume Sentiment Analysis For QQQ, The Invesco QQQ Trust ETF That Tracks The NASDAQ

QQQ is also in overbought territory, making it essential to have an understanding as to how market participants will react with the index as the price goes down.

For the detailed chart breakdown, please see last night’s post here.

QQQ ETF’s Volume Sentiment By Price Level

(*BOLD denotes a Moving Average)

$404 – NULL – 0:0*; 6.58% From Current Price

$400 – NULL – 0:0*; 5.52% From Current Price

$396 – Even – 1:1; 4.47% From Current Price

$392 – Buyers – 1.09:1; 3.41% From Current Price

$388 – Buyers – 0.5:0*; 2.36% From Current Price

$384 – Buyers – 0.7:0*; 1.3% From Current Price

$380 – Sellers – 3:1; 0.25% From Current Price

$376 – Buyers – 2.5:1; -0.81% From Current Price

$372 – Sellers – 2.9:0*; -1.87% From Current Price

$368 – Buyers – 9.33:1; -2.92% From Current Price

$364 – Buyers – 1.68:1; -3.98% From Current Price

$360 – Sellers – 1.06:1; -5.03% From Current Price

$356 – Sellers – 1.82:1; -6.09% From Current Price

$352 – Buyers – 2.33:1; -7.14% From Current Price

$348 – Sellers – 1.03:1; -8.2% From Current Price

$344 – Sellers – 1.28:1; -9.25% From Current Price

$340 – Buyers – 1.12:1; -10.31% From Current Price

$336 – Sellers – 1.42:1; -11.36% From Current Price

$332 – Sellers – 4:1; -12.42% From Current Price

$328 – Buyers – 1.15:1; -13.47% From Current Price

$324 – Buyers – 2.4:1; -14.53% From Current Price

$320 – Sellers – 1.51:1; -15.58% From Current Price

$316 – Sellers – 1.29:1; -16.64% From Current Price

$312 – Sellers – 1.94:1; -17.69% From Current Price

$308 – Buyers – 1.32:1; -18.75% From Current Price

$304 – Buyers – 1.04:1; -19.8% From Current Price

$300 – Sellers – 1.86:1; -20.86% From Current Price

$296 – Buyers – 2.74:1; -21.91% From Current Price

$292 – Buyers – 1.67:1; -22.97% From Current Price

$288 – Sellers – 1.93:1; -24.02% From Current Price

$284 – Sellers – 1.81:1; -25.08% From Current Price

$280 – Buyers – 1.18:1; -26.14% From Current Price

$276 – Sellers – 1.4:1; -27.19% From Current Price

$272 – Sellers – 1.04:1; -28.25% From Current Price

$268 – Sellers – 1.5:1; -29.3% From Current Price

$264 – Sellers – 1.24:1; -30.36% From Current Price

$260 – Sellers – 3.4:1; -31.41% From Current Price

$256 – Buyers – 2.3:0*; -32.47% From Current Price

Price:Volume Sentiment Analysis For IWM, The iShares Russell 2000 ETF

They tend to stay much more in a range compared to SPY & QQQ, making it important to understand their behavior at different price levels, as they are more likely to return to the same level more often than the other names listed in this article.

For the detailed chart breakdown, please see last night’s post here.

IWM ETF’s Volume Sentiment By Price Level

(*BOLD denotes a Moving Average)

$204 – Buyers – 0.5:0*; 6.51% From Current Price

$200 – NULL – 0:0*; 4.42% From Current Price

$198 – Sellers – 1.5:1; 3.38% From Current Price

$196 – Buyers – 2.57:1; 2.33% From Current Price

$194 – Sellers – 2.75:1; 1.29% From Current Price

$192 – Buyers – 1.67:1; 0.25% From Current Price

$190 – Buyers – 1.39:1; -0.8% From Current Price

$188 – Buyers – 2.5:1; -1.84% From Current Price

$186 – Buyers – 3.17:1; -2.89% From Current Price

$184 – Sellers – 1.14:1; -3.93% From Current Price

$182 – Buyers – 1.05:1; -4.98% From Current Price

$180 – Even – 1:1; -6.02% From Current Price

$178 – Sellers – 1.13:1; -7.06% From Current Price

$176 – Buyers – 1.75:1; -8.11% From Current Price

$174 – Buyers – 1.30:1; -9.15% From Current Price

$172 – Sellers – 1.93:1; -10.2% From Current Price

$170 – Buyers – 1.07:1; -11.24% From Current Price

$168 – Sellers – 1.55:1; -12.29% From Current Price

$166 – Sellers – 3.9:1; -13.33% From Current Price

$164 – Sellers – 2.7:1; -14.37% From Current Price

$162 – Sellers – 1.31:1; -15.42% From Current Price

Price:Volume Sentiment Analysis For DIA, The SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF

DIA has remained more consistently priced than its peers that are also examined in this document, likely as investors seek safety in uncertain times by buying larger cap stocks.

For the detailed chart breakdown, please see last night’s post here.

DIA ETF’s Volume Sentiment By Price Level

(*BOLD denotes a Moving Average)

$356 – NULL – 0:0*; 3.14% From Current Price

$352 – Buyers – 0.2:0*; 1.98% From Current Price

$348 – Buyers – 1.57:1; 0.82% From Current Price

$344 – Buyers – 3.17:1; -0.34% From Current Price

$340 – Buyers – 1.32:1; -1.5% From Current Price

$336 – Buyers – 1.33:1; -2.66% From Current Price

$332 – Sellers – 1.08:1; -3.82% From Current Price

$328 – Sellers – 1.17:1; -4.97% From Current Price

$324 – Sellers – 1.36:1; -6.13% From Current Price

$320 – Sellers – 1.10:1; -7.29% From Current Price

$316 – Sellers – 1.36:1; -8.45% From Current Price

$312 – Buyers – 1.2:1; -9.61% From Current Price

$308 – Buyers – 1.54:1; -10.77% From Current Price

$304 – Buyers – 1.18:1; -11.93% From Current Price

$300 – Buyers – 1.19:1; -13.09% From Current Price

$296 – Sellers – 1.6:1; -14.25% From Current Price

$292 – Sellers – 1.25:1; -15.4% From Current Price

$288 – Buyers – 1.46:1; -16.56% From Current Price

$284 – Sellers – 1.31:1; -17.72% From Current Price

$280 – Buyers – 1.6:1; -18.88% From Current Price

$276 – Buyers – 2.67:1; -20.04% From Current Price

$272 – Buyers – 7:1; -21.2% From Current Price

$268 – Sellers – 1.33:1; -22.36% From Current Price

$264- Buyers- 3.38:1; -23.52% From Current Price

$260 – Sellers – 1.64:1; -24.67% From Current Price

$256 – Buyers – 2.4:1; -25.83% From Current Price

$252 – Buyers – 1.33:1; -26.99% From Current Price

$248 – Buyers – 3.25:1; -28.15% From Current Price

$244 – Buyers – 3.6:1; -29.31% From Current Price

$240 – Even – 1:1; -30.47% From Current Price

$236 – Sellers – 5:1; -31.63% From Current Price

$232 – Buyers – 1.2:0*; -32.79% From Current Price

$228 – Sellers – 2:1; -33.95% From Current Price

$224 – Even – 1:1; -35.1% From Current Price

$220 – Buyers – 1.47:1; -36.26% From Current Price

$216 – Buyers – 1.6:1; -37.42% From Current Price

$212 – Buyers – 2:0*; -38.58% From Current Price

$208 – Buyers – 0.5:0*; -39.74% From Current Price

$204 – Sellers – 0.4:0*; -40.9% From Current Price

$200 – Buyers – 2:1; -42.06% From Current Price

$198 – Sellers – 1.1:1; -43.22% From Current Price

$196 – Sellers – 0.4:0*; -43.8% From Current Price

$194 – Buyers – 0.8:0*; -44.38% From Current Price

$192 – NULL – 0:0*; -45.53% From Current Price

$190 – Sellers – 0.7:0*; -46.11% From Current Price

$188 – Buyers – 0.8:0*; -46.69% From Current Price

$186 – Sellers – 0.8:0*; -47.27% From Current Price

Tying It All Together

Volume is one of the best indicators of investor sentiment that can be applied to any time frame, price level, or price range to help paint a better picture of the market’s behavior.

While it does not predict what will happen in the future as market conditions are ever changing & new variables may be of more importance now than they were when these volume levels were read, it can provide a reference as to how investors may behave when the same levels are approached again.

This document was intended to show investor sentiment at levels of support & resistance that are currently relevant to their price levels, while also providing more widespread data that can be used as prices move away from the levels of support & resistance mentioned above.

It can be combined with a current analysis of markets to give more clarity into how investors have historically behaved when prices have been in the price levels listed during the relevant time periods to provide additional detail to your analysis.

It is not intended to serve as investment recommendations or advice.

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM or DIA AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF gained +2.45% over the past week, only outperforming the Dow Jones Industrial Average in terms of weekly performance for an index.

Their RSI closed in overbought territory for the week at 70.9, while their MACD remains mildly bullish, but not strong.

Their volume this week was below average compared to the year prior (722,203,760 vs. 83,556,752), with the heaviest traded session falling on Wednesday, a gap up day that resulted in a spinning top candlestick, a sign of uncertainty among investors.

Friday closed the week out also on a spinning top candle, but Friday’s was bearish, which makes it seem more likely that we will see Wednesday’s gap attempt to be filled this week.

There is support within the gap from the 10 Day Moving Average, but oscillators are signaling that we are due for a consolidation, which based on how far spaced apart support levels are at the moment may cause a 5%+ drop from their current price level.

SPY has support at the $443.54 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.47:1), $426.61 (50 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.70:1), $424.79 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.70:1) & $416.07 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.43:1), with resistance at the $452.69 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.2:1), $460.87 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2:1) & $468.78/share (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF climbed +3.5% over the past week, as the technology-heavy index was the second best performing index to the small cap Russell 2000.

Their RSI is also overbought at 71.92, with their MACD beginning to signal danger ahead & turning bearish.

Volumes were slightly below average last week compared to the prior year (50,149,220 vs. 55,601,102), which indicates that the weekly gain was not done with complete confidence by market participants.

Wednesday’s gap up day resulted in a doji, signaling uncertainty about the following price movement, and while Thursday’s candle was more confident (in terms of body:shadow), volume dipped that day, despite it being another gap up, indicating that investors were on the fence.

Friday’s gravestone doji on a bearish session with higher volume than Thursday’s confirms this sentiment, as investors did not want to carry much additional risk into the weekend & were beginning to take profits & perhaps make hedges.

QQQ doesn’t have any support between the price & the bottom of the gap formed on Thursday, but does have two touch-points around the second gap formed Wednesday, which could lead into a steep decline, with the 50 Day Moving Average falling -7.52% below the current price being the last major support near the price that doesn’t fall within what is considered a “correction” range.

QQQ has support at the $372.34 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2.9:0*), $370.93 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 9.33:1), $357.59 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.82:1) & $350.56/share (50 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.03:1) price levels, with resistance at the $404.02/share price level (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*).

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF improved +3.69% over the past week, faring the best of the major indexes.

Their RSI is just beyond the overbought end of the neutral range at 62.55 & trending downward, with their MACD beginning to show signals of a bearish crossover in the coming days’ sessions.

Volumes were slightly above average last week compared to the year prior (30,455,980 vs. 27,794,121), with an interesting trend between the two heaviest volume days.

They were the bookends of the current price range established by Wednesday’s gap up (heaviest volume) & Friday’s session, whose lower shadow extended well into the aforementioned gap, but recovered enough before the close to stay just below the new price range.

There is no support within this gap, which makes the coming days interesting as the nearest support level sits below the gap & -1.7% below the current price.

IWM has support at the $188.27 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.5:1), $187.48 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.17:1), $186.81 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.17:1) & $185.44/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.14:1) price levels, with resistance at the $193.68 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.67:1), $197.98 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.57:1), $198.74 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.5:1) & $202.21/share (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF advanced +2.29% over the past week, the least among the major averages.

Their RSI is on the overbought end of the neutral range at 61.88, with a MACD that is barely bullish.

Volumes were lighter than average last week compared to the year prior (2,989,640 vs. 3,588,598), signaling uncertainty among market participants.

Their highest volume day of the week was Wednesday, where they gapped up slightly, but the session closed below where it opened, signaling further uncertainty & a lack of confidence in the move.

Thursday & Friday resulted in spinning top candles, another sign of uncertainty among market participants, but unlike the other indexes, DIA has support levels much closer to their current price, which is also likely due to the size of the index components.

DIA has support at the $343.94 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.32:1), $342.23 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.32:1), $341.08 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.32:1) & $340.36/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.32:1) price levels, with resistance at the $345.73/share price level (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.17:1)

Let’s dive into some of the best & worst performing industries & geo-locations in the market now based on their ETF’s technical rating!

Transportation (TPOR), Mexico (MEXX), Industrials (DUSL) & Social Media (SOCL) Are Bullishly Leading The Market

TPOR, the Direxion Daily Transportation Bull 3x Shares ETF has climbed +39.61% over the past year, including a +95.63% recovery from their 52-week low in October of 2022 (ex-distributions).

Their RSI just dipped back beneath overbought levels at 67.05, with their MACD signaling an impending bearish crossover in the coming sessions after the mid-to-end of week weakness.

Last week’s volume was above average compared to the year prior (34,080 vs. 26,825), however the configuration of the week’s candlesticks should be a cause of concern for market participants.

Monday & Tuesday were advancing days, but they also had the lowest volumes of the week, with exception to Wednesday’s session, which is currently marking the most recent top & the reversal point, as the day opened above the prior two, but closed below the open.

Investors may think to take some profits or hedge against losses using an options strategy while waiting to see how it behaves around support levels, as their 0.83% distribution yield will not provide much protection.

TPOR has support at the $32.54 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2.25:1), $32.37 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2.25:1), $32.04 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2.25:1) & $28.61/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.69:1), with resistance at the $34.23 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2:1), $36.01 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.48:1), $38.14 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.2:1) & $40.16/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.79:1) price levels.

MEXX, the Direxion Daily MSCI Mexico Bull 3x Shares ETF has ballooned an astounding +142.18% over the past year, tacking on +176.43% from their 52-week low in September of 2022 (ex-distributions).

Their RSI is beginning to trend back towards neutral at 57.75, but their MACD is still bullish.

Last week’s volume decline to below half of the past year’s average (1,040 vs. 2,370) as the latter half of the week was marked with gaps & lower closing than opening prices (with exception to Friday’s session), signaling uncertainty among investors.

Friday’s candle does require a closer examination, as the day opened lower & the open & low were the same price level, and the closing price also happened to be the high for the day on a bearish gap down that fell midway between the body of Wednesday’s candle.

This has tended to lead to near-term bearishness, which makes it important to take profits or have a hedging strategy in place, such as buying puts or selling calls, as their 1.27% distribution yield will not provide much protection against losses.

MEXX has support at the $156.97 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 4.7:0*), $156.18 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 4.7:0* ), $155.17 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.67:1) & $148.73/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 4.29:1) price levels, with resistance overhead at the $166.25 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.9:0*), $166.94 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.9:0*), $209.77 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $249.31/share (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

DUSL, the Direxion Daily Industrials Bull 3x Shares ETF has gained +68.68% over the past year, adding +97.95% from their 52-week low in October of 2022 (ex-distributions).

Their RSI is trending back toward neutral from overbought at 65.57, with their MACD showing an impending bearish crossover on the horizon.

Last week’s volume was more than double the average volume of the year prior (50,580 vs. 24,198) with the highest volumes occurring on Tuesday’s gap up session & Thursday’s session which resulted in a dragonfly doji.

Friday closed with a hanging man candle in a three day downtrend, which signals more weakness is on the horizon.

With only a 1.21% distribution yield there is not much in terms of protection against losses during a consolidation period, making it appropriate to find a hedging strategy & to trim some profits after the bull run of the last month & a half.

DUSL has support at the $38.75 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.04:1), $37.34 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.41:1), $36.84 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.72:1) & $36.78/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.72:1) price levels, with resistance at the $41.07 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.31:1), $42.28 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.75:1), $44.33 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2.7:1) & $48.73/share (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

SOCL, the Global X Social Media Index ETF has advanced +21.39% over the past year, gaining +63.08% since their 52-week low in November of 2022 (ex-distributions).

Their RSI is trending back out of overbought territory at 67.96, but their MACD is still bullish (although beginning to curl over bearishly).

Last week’s volume fell to about half of the average volume for the year (16,080 vs. 31,306) in a week that’s gains mostly were due to Wednesday & Thursday’s gap up sessions.

SOCL sports a modest 0.48% distribution yield, which will not provide much protection against losses, making this a good time to think about a hedging strategy & profit taking before it attempts to fill in the gaps from last week & consolidate while its oscillators return to normal levels.

SOCL has support at the $38.97 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.21:1), $38.54 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.21:1), $37.85 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.11:1) & $37.08/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.11:1) price levels, with resistance at the $40.24 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 4.14:1), $45.20 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 3.4:1), $45.63 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 3.4:1) & $49.32/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.03:1) price levels.

Energy (ERX), Thailand (THD), 7-10 Year U.S. Treasuries (UST) & U.S. Pharmaceuticals (IHE) Are Bearishly Lagging The Market

ERX, the Direxion Daily Energy Bull 2x Shares ETF has gained 26.57% over the past year, including a +30.29% rebound from their 52-week low in September of 2022, but has declined -29.76% from their 52-week high in November of 2022 (ex-distributions).

Their RSI has dropped to neutral at 51.76 & their MACD is moving towards a bearish crossover in the coming days.

Last week’s volume was below average compared to the year prior (998,940 vs. 1,462,217) in a week that started off advancing & on Wednesday went into bearish decline after Wednesday’s spinning top candle led to another on Thursday & a break of the 10 Day Moving Average’s support on Friday’s down day.

ERX pays a 3.13% distribution yield to long-term holders, which will provide some protection against losses, however it would be wise to begin looking for hedges against any existing positions while watching to see how its support levels hold up.

ERX has support at the $54.39 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.01:1), $54.13 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.01:1), $52.82 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.42:1) & $53.81/share (50 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.23:1) price levels, with resistance overhead at the $55.15 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 4.3:0*), $55.39 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 4.3:0*), $55.46 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 4.3:0*) & $55.88/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 4.3:0*) price levels.

THD, the iShares MSCI Thailand Capped ETF has inched forward +5.57% over the past year & +8.28% from their 52-week low in October of 2022, but has fallen -16.64% since their 52-week high in January of 2023 (ex-distributions).

Their RSI is about neutral at 53.94, with their MACD still bullish following 5 sessions of gains, but a warning signal was shown on Friday.

Last week’s volume was slightly above average compared to the past year (80,140 vs. 78,464), but the day with the most volume came on Friday which resulted in a gravestone doji.

This week investors will have their eyes peeled to see if the will be a bearish reversal & how support levels hold up.

While they offer a 2.66% distribution yield, a hedging strategy using options would be a wise thing to look into in the coming days.

THD has support at the $67.02 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.37:1), $66.68 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.41:1), $66.26 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.41:!) & $64.77/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.33:1) price levels, with resistance at the $67.50 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.37:1), $67.61 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.37:1), $67.91 (50 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.37:1) & $68.35/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.03:1) price levels.

UST, the ProShares Ultra 7-10 Year Treasury ETF has lost -12.46% over the past year, recovering +4.48% from their 52-week low in July of 2022 & dropped -19.55% since their 52-week high in August of 2022 (ex-distributions).

Their RSI is about neutral at 49.90 & their MACD is currently bullish, mostly due to a pair of gap ups on Wednesday & Thursday of last week.

Last week’s volumes were minuscule compared to the average volume of the past year (4,080 vs. 12,376), signaling that there was not much conviction among investors in the moves of the past week & investors should proceed with caution.

While UST offers a 2.2% distribution yield for long-term holders, that is limited protection against further consolidation & the closing of the gap that began on Friday, making it worthwhile to have a hedging strategy in place & waiting to see how it behaves around its support levels, especially given how the 10, 50 & 200 day moving averages are currently positioned around their share price.

UST has support at the $46.28 (Volume Sentiment: ), $46.11 (Volume Sentiment: ), $45.69 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: ) & $45.13/share (Volume Sentiment: ) price levels, with resistance at the $46.96 (Volume Sentiment: ), $47.31 (50 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: ), $47.46 (200 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: ) & $48.10/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.04:1) price levels.

IHE, the iShares U.S. Pharmaceutical ETF has given up -4.82% over the past year, recovered +5.47% from their 52-week low in October of 2022, but declined -8.95% from their 52-week high in July of 2022 (ex-distributions).

Their RSI is neutral at 50.09, with a bearish MACD that is beginning to trend towards a bullish crossover after Friday’s gap up session.

Last week’s volume was fell far below the average volume for the year (4,700 vs. 9,453), with Thursday’s candlestick receiving the most volume, followed by Friday’s gap up candle.

One thing of note on Friday’s candle, the high of the day went up to the 50 Day Moving Average & then ducked back down to close beneath it, with a shadow in between the close & the 50 DMA.

Based on the light volume, neutral RSI & lack of support levels within the window it created, this gap is something that is likely to be filled in the coming week & investors should be cautious.

Their 1.98% distribution yield does not offer much protection against declines, making a good time to begin planning a hedging strategy as the nearest level of support is at $173.66/share.

IHE has support at the $175.67 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2.32:1), $173.66 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.4:1), $173.26 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.4:1) & $172.88/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.4:1), with resistance at the $176.44 (50 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.15:1), $177.05 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.15:1), $178.15 (200 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Even, 1:1) & $179.88/share (Volume Sentiment: Even, 1:1) price levels.

Tying It All Together

This week kicks off at 8:30 am on Monday with the Empire State Manufacturing Survey & Equity Lifestyle Properties reports earnings.

Tuesday things get busier, with U.S. Retail Sales & Retail Sales Minus Autos data due at 8:30 am, followed by Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization data at 9:15 am & at 10 am Business Inventories & Home Builder Confidence Index data is set to be reported.

Also on Tuesday, there will be many earnings reports including Bank of America, Bank of New York Mellon, Charles Schwab, Hasbro, Interactive Brokers, J.B. Hunt Transportation Services, Lockheed Martin, Morgan Stanley, Novartis, Omnicom, Pinnacle Financial Partners, PNC, Prologis, Synchrony Financial & Western Alliance Bancorp.

Wednesday morning at 8:30 am we get Housing Starts data.

Netflix, Tesla, Alcoa, Ally Financial, ASML, Baker Hughes, Citizens Financial Group, Cohen & Steers, Crown Castle, Discover Financial Services, Equifax, First Horizon, Goldman Sachs, Halliburton, International Business Machines, Kinder Morgan, Las Vegas Sands, M&T Bank, Nasdaq, Rexford Industrial Realty, SL Green Realty, Steel Dynamics, U.S. Bancorp, United Airlines & Zions Bancorp are also all due to report earnings on Wednesday.

Initial Jobless Claims & the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey data are set to be reported at 8:30 am on Thursday, followed by Existing Home Sales & U.S. Leading Economic Indicators data at 10 am.

American Airlines, Badger Meter, Blackstone, Capital One Financial, CSX, D.R. Horton, Fifth Third, Freeport-McMoran, First Financial, Genuine Parts, Intuitive Surgical, Johnson & Johnson, KeyCorp, Knight-Swift Transportation, Marsh McLennan, Newmont Goldcorp, Phillip Morris International, PPG Industries, Pool, SAP, Snap-On, Travelers, Truist Financial & W.R. Berkley are all due to report earnings on Thursday.

Friday has no economic data scheduled, but American Express, AutoNation, Comerica, Huntington Banc, Regions Financial, Roper Technologies & SLB are all due to report earnings.

See you back here next week!

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM, DIA, TPOR, MEXX, DUSL, SOCL, ERX, THD, UST, or IHE AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF declined -1.07% last week, in a week that was marked by jumpy gaps that resulted in prices settling just above the 10 day moving average.

Their RSI is retreating from overbought territory & currently at 59.5 & their MACD is bearishly falling.

Sessions from early last week were on below average volume compared to the year prior, with the end of the week’s volume levels returning more to about average, which could be a sign of indecisiveness among investors, or just less people trading during the holiday week.

Monday’s spinning top candle ultimately set the tone for the rest of the week declining, after the previous Friday’s session’s gap up.

Thursday’s gap down began a new price range, but Friday’s gravestone doji signals that more declines are on the near-term horizon & suggests a lack of confidence in current price levels among investors.

SPY has support at the $438.37 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Even, 1:1), $424.79 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.70:1), $423.10 ( 50 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.39:1) & $415.18/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.57:1), with resistance at the $444.30 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 14.29:1), $447.43 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 14.29:1), $452.69 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.2:1) & $460.87/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2:1).

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF fell -0.86% last week, as the NASDAQ performed strongest of all of the major indexes.

Their RSI is on the oversold end of neutral at 60.19, while their MACD is bearish.

Overall, volumes were below average last week compared to the year prior, as there is a lot of uncertainty about the Federal Reserve’s course of interest rate hikes, which will impact the tech-heavy NASDAQ more than most stocks.

Monday’s doji followed by Wednesday’s shooting star candlestick show that the near-term sentiment among investors & traders is more bearish, with Thursday & Friday’s price action mostly opening & closing around the exact same price levels, being supported by the 10 day moving average.

QQQ has support at the $365.61 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.68:1), $345.13 (50 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.28:1), $332.05 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 4:1) & $312.77/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.94:1), with resistance at the $372.34 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2.9:0*), $374.55 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2.9:0*), $377.90 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.5:1) & $400.45/share (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*).

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF dropped -1.37% last week, as investors were selling smaller cap names.

Their RSI is about neutral at 53.6, but their MACD is currently giving bearish signals.

Monday & Wednesday’s sessions had below average volumes compared to the year prior, but the end of the week’s levels returned to about average.

Monday kicked the week off with a shooting star candlestick to set the tone off as bearish for the week, leading to Thursday’s large gap down session that tested price levels well below the range that the open & closing prices occurred in.

Friday attempted to reclaim the window’s range created by Thursday’s gap, but was ultimately won by the bears who kept prices to the lower half of the day’s candle & below the prior Thursday’s candle, indicating sentiment is still widely bearish.

IWM has support at the $184.35 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.14:1), $183.56 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.05:1), $179.28 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.13:1) & $179.11/share (50 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.13:1), with resistance at the $187.48 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.17:1), $189.24 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.5:1), $197.98 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.57:1) & $198.74/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.5:1) price levels.

DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF lost -1.87% last week, as even the largest companies were not immune against the selling pressure across the overall market.

Their RSI is about neutral at 47.47, but their MACD is also signaling impending bearishness.

Thursday had the week’s strongest volumes, but overall the levels were not noteworthy compared to the year prior, indicating either caution on the part of investors, or being attributable to the holiday on Tuesday.

Their 10 day moving average was not able to provide the support needed to keep prices from the declines seen on Thursday’s gap down session & Friday’s session’s open/closing prices were trending closer to the 50 day moving average.

DIA has support at the $336.44 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.33:1), $335.87 (50 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.08:1), $327.16 (200 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.36:1) & $326.32/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.36:1), with resistance at the $340.04 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.32:1), $340.07 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.32:1), $$340.46 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.32:1) & $341.08/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.32:1) price levels.

Semiconductors (SOXL), Brazil (BRZU), Japan (DXJ) & Dynamic Oil & Gas Services (PXJ) Are All Bullishly Leading The Market

SOXL, the Direxion Daily Semiconductors Bull 3x Shares ETF has gained +79.61% over the past year, improving an astonishing +296.73% since its 52-week low in October of 2022 (ex-distributions).

Their RSI is neutral at 51.46, but their MACD is currently in a bearish decline.

Volumes were below average compared to the year prior all week, signaling waning enthusiasm among investors & traders.

Last Monday’s session resulted in a spinning top, following another in the Friday before’s session as investors signaled uncertainty.

Thursday’s gap down couldn’t find any support from the 10 day moving average & Friday’s gravestone doji signals that there looks to be more bearish sentiment in the near-term.

SOXL pays a modest 0.61% distribution yield to long-term shareholders, which does not provide much of a cushion against losses, making it wise for holders of existing positions to have an insurance policy in place, such as selling calls or buying puts while waiting to see how their price behaves around other levels of support.

SOXL has support at the $22.05 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.23:1), $21.52 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.13:1), $20.40 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2.63:1) & $19.75/share (50 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.45:1), with resistance at the $23.60 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.5:1), $24.76 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.67:1), $25.75 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.06:1) & $26.75/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.2:0*) price levels.

BRZU, the Direxion Daily Brazil Bull 2x Shares ETF has added +52.74% over the past year, including a 64.33% gain from their 52-week low in March of 2023 (ex-distributions).

Their RSI is relatively neutral at 53.78, but their MACD is in a bearish decline following mid-June’s price correction.

Volumes have been well below average recently compared to the year prior, signaling that there is uncertainty ahead & that enthusiasm is waning among investors.

Monday & Wednesday’s sessions were spinning tops, indicating uncertainty among market participants, before Thursday’s gap down & Friday’s shooting star candle indicates that there is likely more declines on the horizon.

BRZU pays a 3.98% distribution yield to long-term shareholders, which offers some protection against losses, but as with any other name & a chart that is flashing caution, it is wise to have some form of insurance against losses in the forms of an options hedge for the coming weeks.

BRZU has support at the $86.26 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $85.89 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2:1), $85.16 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2:1) & $83.35/share (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), with resistance at the $88.42 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 3:1), $91.68 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.33:1), $91.81 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.33:1) & $92.11/share (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

DXJ, the WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity Fund ETF has risen +34.56% over the past year, improving +32.88% since their 52-week low in September of 2022 (ex-distributions).

Their MACD is relatively neutral at 56.66, but their MACD is bearish, which became even steeper following Thursday’s gap down.

Volumes were roughly average compared to the year prior last week, but while there may have been conviction behind moves DXJ made, the candlesticks don’t paint the brightest of pictures for their near-term outlook.

Monday’s session resulted in a spinning top, followed by the dragonfly doji on Wednesday, a hanging man on Thursday & prices were unable to recover to the 10 day moving average on Friday, with the day’s opening & closing levels occurring at the bottom of the candle.

With bearish sentiment remaining after DXJ recently hit all time highs, it would be wisest to hedge a position against further near-term declines, as their 3.17% distribution yield will not cover against all losses.

DXJ is near its all time high & has support at the $80.64 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $79.81 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $77.55 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $77.53/share (50 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), with resistance at the $82.55 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $83.30 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $84.09/share (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price level.

PXJ, the Invesco Dynamic Oil & Gas Services ETF has gained +49.92% over the past year, with a +61.85% rebound from their 52-week low in July of 2022 (ex-distributions).

Their RSI is overbought at 70.04 & their MACD is still signaling bullishness, especially after Friday’s +6.05% gain.

Recent volumes have been below average compared to the year prior.

Last week’s candlesticks began signaling bearishness early in the week & with Wednesday’s dragonfly doji & Thursday’s spinning top, but Friday’s session showed solid price action with prices closing near the highs of the day.

Volume on Friday was relatively tame though, which does not provide much confirmation for the day’s price movement.

PXJ provides a 1.28% distribution yield to long-term investors, making it important to be monitoring open positions & being prepared to hedge against near-term declines, especially as the oscillators cool off from Friday’s large movement.

PXJ has support at the $5.23 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.37:1), $5.20 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.37:1), $5.16 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.37:1) & $5.15/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.37:1), with resistance at the $5.27 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.37:1), $5.29 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.37:1), $5.51 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.57:1) & $5.56/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.57:1) price levels.

Optimum Yield Diversified Commodity Strategy (PDBC), South Africa (EZA), Long-term Treasuries (SPTL) & Global Gold Miners (RING) Are All Bearishly Lagging The Market

PDBC, the Invesco Optimum Yield Diversified Commodity Strategy No. K-1 ETF has fallen -11.33% over the past year, losing -24.52% since their 52-week high in August of 2022, but has reclaimed +4.39% since their 52-week low in May of 2023 (ex-distributions).

Their RSI is relatively neutral at 53.01, with their MACD signaling a bullish crossover on the horizon, after steady growth in price over the past two weeks.

Last week’s volumes were below average compared to the year prior though, which does not indicate a strong sense of confidence among investors, despite their price being held up by the 10 & 50 day moving averages functioning as levels of support on Friday.

The $14 price level will be an area of interest to watch if they continue climbing in the weeks ahead, but they will need more eager investor sentiment in order to continue upwards.

PDBC pays a handsome 13.98% distribution yield for long-term holders, but hedging would be wise, especially once you notice that they are being held up at resistance points down the line.

PDBC has support at the $13.71 (50 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.46:1), $13.64 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.46:1), $13.39 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.46:1 ) & $13.38/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.46:1), with resistance at the $13.96 (2 Touch-points in past 52-weeks; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.46:1), $14.00 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.04:1), $14.12 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.04:1) & $14.17/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.04:1) price levels.

EZA, the iShares MSCI South Africa ETF has lost -2.56% over the past year, declining -18.37% from their 52-week high in January of 2023, but has climbed back +9.37% since their 52-week low in October of 2022 (ex-distributions).

Their RSI is on the oversold end of neutral at 45.64, with their MACD signaling bearishness.

Last week’s volumes were below average compared to the year prior, signaling that there is uncertainty among investors currently.

In the coming week, it will be interesting to see if 10 & 50 day moving averages apply downward pressure on their share price or if their resistance levels will be able to be broken.

EZA provides a 3.43% distribution yield for long-term investors which will provide some protection against losses, but hedging a position would be wise if they begin to falter around resistance levels.

EZA has support at the $37.99 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.26:1), $37.92 (Two Touch-points In The Past 52-Weeks; Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.26:1), $37.77 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.26:1) & $37.25/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.26:1), with resistance at the $39.27 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.54:1), $39.64 (50 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.54:1), $40.56 (200 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.07:1) & $40.66/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.07:1) price levels.

SPTL, the SPDR Barclays Long Term Treasury ETF has fallen -10.5% over the past year, dropping -16.85% from their 52-week high in August of 2022, but has regained +7.41% from their 52-week low in October of 2022 (ex-distributions).

Their RSI is trending towards oversold levels at 36.01, with a bearish reading also coming from their MACD.

Volumes were below average during a week of declines, as prices on Monday were unable to overcome the resistance level set by the 10 & 50 day moving averages & broke down through the 200 day moving average as well.

Friday’s gravestone doji implies that the market views there being more pain on the way for SPTL, as they try to establish a floor in the coming week.

While they pay a 3.03% distribution yield, it would be wise to check into the costs of hedges on any bullish days in the coming weeks to see if there are any discounts on insurance against losses.

SPTL has support at the $28.54 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.47:1), $28.49 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.47:1), $28.46 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.47:1) & $27.86/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.64:1), with resistance at the $29.00 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.14:1), $29.57 (200 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.14:1), $29.62 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.14:1) & $29.82/share (50 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.14:1) price levels.

RING, the iShares MSCI Global Gold Miners ETF has advanced +10.5% over the past year, but has fallen -19.1% from their 52-week high in May of 2023, while recovering +35.65% from their 52-week low in September of 2022 (ex-distributions).

Their RSI is on the oversold end of neutral at 40.98, but their MACD is flashing signs of a bearishness in the coming days.

Volumes were below average all of last week, with the exception of on Friday, a day where prices were caught between support from the 200 day moving average & resistance overhead from the 10 day moving average & candle formed a harami pattern with Thursday’s candle, with the prices opening & closing close to the bottom of the day’s range.

Wednesday’s candle was a bearish engulfing candle, which implies that there are further declines in store for RING in the near-term.

While they pay a 2.17% distribution yield to long-term shareholders, market participants with a position in RING would be wise to look for hedges as protection from additional declines.

RING has support at the $22.66 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.18:1), $22.64 (200 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.18:1), $22.45 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.18:1) & $22.00/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.18:1), with resistance at the $22.90 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.18:1), $23.01 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.26:1), $23.06 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.26:1) & $23.18/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.26:1) price levels.

Tying It All Together

Monday kicks off with Wholesale Inventories reported at 10 am, followed by Consumer Credit at 3 pm.

Also on Monday, PriceSmart & WD-40 are set to report earnings.

On Tuesday we get the NFIB Optimism Index reading at 6 am & there are no earnings reports scheduled.

Wednesday is the much anticipated Consumer Price Index, Core CPI, CPI Year-over-Year & Core CPI Year-over-Year at 8:30 am, followed by the Fed Beige Book at 2pm, with earnings reports due to AngioDynamics & MillerKnoll.

On Thursday morning we get the Initial Jobless Claims, Producer Price Index, Core PPI, PPI Year-over-Year & Core PPI Year-over-Year data, all reported at 8:30 am.

Thursday’s earnings include PepsiCo, Delta Airlines, Conagra, Fastenal, Progressive & Washington Federal.

Friday the week winds down with Import Price Index & Import Price Index Minus Fuel data at 8:30 am & Consumer Sentiment reported at 10 am.

JPMorgan Chase, BlackRock, Citigroup, State Street, United Health Group & Wells Fargo are all due to report earnings on Friday.

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM, DIA, SOXL, BRZU, DXJ, PXJ, PDBC, EZA, SPTL, or RING AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF gained +2.32% over the past week, much of which came from Friday’s +1.18% gap up session.

Their RSI is about to enter overbought territory at 69.69 & their MACD is bullish.

Last week’s trading volumes were above average compared to the year prior, signaling confidence behind their price action in investors’ eyes.

However, Wednesday’s spinning top & Friday’s shooting star candlestick are signaling that there will be a cool down period in prices in the near-term, especially when combined with the other indicators.

Their 10 day moving average will be the first major test of support.

SPY has support at the $436.67 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.32:1), $424.79 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.24:1), $420.53 (50 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.30:1) & $415.18/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3:1) price levels, with resistance (all on 2 year chart) at the $447.43 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.14:1), $452.69 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.25:1), $460.87 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.5:0*) & $468.78/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.33:1) price levels.

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF added +1.9% over the past week, mostly due to Friday’s +1.54% gap up after spending the week in a consolidation range.

Their RSI is trending towards overbought conditions, with their MACD bearishly falling.

Last week’s trading volumes were relatively average compared to the year prior, with the candlesticks for the week adding more color to how investors are feeling about QQQ.

The first four days of the week traded in a relatively tight range, with Thursday closing with a hanging man candlestick, projecting bearish sentiment.

Friday’s candle’s open to closing price range all took place on the lower range of the candle overall, which also paints a cautious attitude among investors.

QQQ has support at the $364.42 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.16:1), $340.79 (50 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.2:1), $332.05 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 3.2:1) & $312.77/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 3.64:1) price levels, with resistance at the $372.34 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1:0*), $374.55 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1:0*), $377.97 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.33:1) & $400.45/share (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF climbed +3.71% over the past week, as small caps were the favorite among investors for the week.

Their RSI is trending towards overbought at 61.19, with their MACD bullish.

Recent volumes this past week were above average compared to the year prior, but Friday’s filled in, but bullish hanging man candle casts a foreboding shadow around a week of solid growth & performance for IWM.

IWM has support at the $186.81 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.91:1) $185.44 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.75:1), $184.17 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.75:1) & $183.56/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.23:1) price levels, with resistance at the $187.48 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.91:1), $189.24 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.19:1), $197.98 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.31:1) & $198.74/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.5:1) price levels.

DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF improved +1.98% over the past week, in large part thanks to Friday’s +0.79% gap up session.

Their RSI is trending towards overbought, with a bullish MACD.

Recent volumes this past week were slightly below average compared to the year prior.

Friday’s spinning top candle will make it important to watch the window created by the day’s gap up, as well as the support that the 10 day moving average provides in the near-term for when trying to figure out where there price is heading next.

DIA has support at the $341.08 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.71:1), $340.36 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.71:1), $340.04 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.71:1) & $339.94/share (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.01:1), with resistance at the $343.94 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.71:1), $345.73 (Volume Sentiment: Even, 1:1), $346.22 (Volume Sentiment: Even, 1:1) & $347.93/share (Volume Sentiment: Even, 1:1) price levels.

Let’s dive into some of the best & worst performing geo-locations & industries in the market based on technical ratings from this week’s data!

Greece (GREK), Information Technology (FTEC), U.S. Infrastructure Development (PAVE) & Self Driving EV & Tech (IDRV) Are All Bullishly Leading The Market

GREK, the Global X MSCI Greece ETF has gained +64.96% over the past year, climbing +79.03% since their 52-week low in September of 2022 (ex-distributions).

Their RSI is approaching overbought conditions at 67.56, with their MACD primed to bullishly crossover in the coming days.

Recent trading volumes have been above average, showing that investors are confident in GREK at the moment, but they did dip under their 10 day moving average last week, indicating that the support was broken & may not be strong in the near-term.

Last week’s candlesticks had a few spinning tops, a large gap up on Thursday & a doji to close the week on Friday, which also hints at upcoming weakness on the horizon.

While they offer a 2.44% distribution yield to long-term holders, investors would be wise to have an options position for insurance against losses in the near-term, such as selling calls or buying puts, while watching their behavior at support levels.

GREK has support at the $36.97 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $36.39 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $35.21 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $33.75/share (50 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), with resistance at the (11 year chart) $43.93 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $46.86 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $48.65 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $50.09/share (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

FTEC, the Fidelity MSCI Information Technology ETF has improved +36.04% over the past year, including a +51.57% gain since their 52-week low in September of 2022 (ex-distributions.)

Their RSI is approaching overbought conditions at 66.62, with their MACD curling upwards looking to bullishly crossover.

Recent trading volumes have been about average, but last week’s candlesticks do not paint the rosiest of outlook pictures.

Most of the price action of the first three sessions of last week was centered around the bottom of each daily candles’ range, except for Tuesday whose real body was the majority of the candle, with small shadows on top & bottom, showing that prices favored being lower.

Thursday’s dragonfly doji followed by Friday’s +1.57% gap up & shooting star candlestick do not signal strength & the window created by the gap will be an interesting place to watch to see if it fills in in the near-term.

FTEC pays a modest 0.69% distribution yield to long-term shareholders, which provides limited cushion against losses, making it important to have some form of insurance using options in order to prevent near-term losses.

FTEC has support at the $128.19 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.42:1), $120.07 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2.16:1)$114.81 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.12:1) & $109.60/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.29:1) price levels, with resistance at the $132.02 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.73:1) & $136.37/share (2022; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

PAVE, the Global X U.S. Infrastructure Development ETF has added +38.22% over the past year, climbing +41.93% since their 52-week low in July of 2022 (ex-distributions).

Their RSI is overbought at 74.24 & their MACD is bullish, after they spent late-May through June rallying ~14%.

Recent trading volumes have been above average compared to the year prior, confirming the rally in price.

There should be a near-term pullback in price, indicated by both the oscillators & Wednesday & Friday’s dragonfly doji candlesticks.

PAVE’s 0.7% distribution yield is not much in terms of protection against losses, so it would be wise to have an options strategy for loss protection up while waiting to see how they behave around support levels.

PAVE has support at the $30.51 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.2:0*), $30.14 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.2:0*), $29.84 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.83:1) & $28.46/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.63:1) price levels, with no current resistance levels as they are at an all time high.

IDRV, the iShares Self Driving EV & Tech ETF has gained +14.18% over the past year, gaining +28.41% since their 52-week low in October of 2022 (ex-distributions).

Their RSI is trending towards overbought at 65.85 & their MACD has recently bullishly crossed over.

Recent volumes have been below average compared to the year prior though, signaling that investors are becoming less enthusiastic about IDRV recently.

The 10 day moving average will be an important support level to watch in the coming week, especially once the window that resulted from Friday’s +2.51% gap up session begins to close.

IDRV pays a 1.89% distribution yield for long-term holders, which does not provide much protection against losses, making it important to have some form of an options strategy for insurance along with any open position.

IDRV has support at the $39.93 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.04:1), $39.53 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.04:1), $38.99 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.11:1) & $38.78/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.11:1) price levels, with resistance at the $41.36 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.25:1), $41.52 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.25:1), $41.81 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.25:1) & $43.16/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.44:1) price levels.

Regional Banking (KRE), Tail Risk (TAIL), Global Agriculture (FTAG) & China (GXC) Are All Bearishly Lagging The Market

KRE, the SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF has fallen -28.71% over the past year, losing -40.68% since their 52-week high in August of 2022, but has gained +18.28% since their 52-week low in May of 2023 (ex-distributions).

Their RSI is neutral at 48.62 & their MACD is looking to bullishly crossover in the coming sessions.

Recent trading volumes have been above average compared to the year prior, but Friday’s bearish engulfing candlestick hints at more downside risk on the horizon.

Last Monday kicked off with an inverted hammer candlestick, which signals a bullish reversal, but the top of the shadow will need to remain in tact after Friday’s close came close to it, breaking below the 10 day moving average, but remaining above the 50 day moving average.

KRE does offer a 3.76% distribution yield for long-term holders, but caution should be exercised in the near-term with KRE until they have established an uptrend from support levels.

KRE has support at the $40.28 (50 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: ), $39.38 (Volume Sentiment: ), $38.09 (Volume Sentiment: ) & $35.43/share (Volume Sentiment: ) price levels, with resistance at the $40.90 (Volume Sentiment: ), $40.95 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: ), $41.06 (Volume Sentiment: ) & $41.18/share (Volume Sentiment: ) price levels.

TAIL, the Cambria Tail Risk ETF has declined -20.6% over the past year, losing -24.72% from their 52-week high in July of 2022 & recently added +0.37% to their 52-week low in June of 2023 (ex-distributions).

Their RSI is moving back towards oversold levels at 36.54, as their MACD is on the verge of a bearish crossover.

Recent trading volumes have been below average compared to the year prior, signaling investors are not overly confident in TAIL.

While they offer a 2.85% distribution yield for long-term holders, they’re currently trading at an all-time low, making that limited additional loss cushion still too risky until the price has begun to stabilize & trend back upwards.

TAIL has no current support levels as it is at an all-time low & has resistance overhead at the $13.72 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: ), $14.05 (Volume Sentiment: ), $14.14 (50 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: ) & $14.27/share (Volume Sentiment: ) price levels.

FTAG, the First Trust IndXX Global Agriculture ETF has lost -1.31% over the past year, falling -13.82% from their 52-week high in August of 2022, while improving +4.24% since their 52-week low in July of 2022 (ex-distributions).

Their RSI is neutral at 51.16, with a flat MACD as their price sits between the 10 & 50 day moving averages.

Recent trading volumes have been lighter than average compared to the prior year, as investors are beginning to lack enthusiasm in FTAG’s price movements.

While Friday’s session was a +0.85% gap up, the candle is filled in as the price closed lower than it opened & with the shadow on the bottom of the candle there is still negative sentiment for FTAG.

They offer a 4.5% distribution yield for long-term holders, which does provide some cushion against losses, but it would be best to see which side they breakout & begin trending in in the near-term to mitigate risk.

FTAG has support at the $26.72 (10 Day Moving Average & 2 Touch-points; Volume Sentiment: ), $26.09 (Volume Sentiment: ), $25.44 (Volume Sentiment: ) & $25.43/share (Volume Sentiment: ) price levels, with resistance at the $26.98 (50 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: ), $27.24 (Volume Sentiment: ), $27.32 (Volume Sentiment: ) & $27.33/share (Volume Sentiment: ) price levels.

GXC, the SPDR S&P China ETF has shed -17.51% over the past year, dropping -20.25% since their 52-week high in July of 2022, but has recovered +22.3% since their 52-week low in October of 2022 (ex-distributions).

Their RSI is trending back towards neutral at 45.44, but their MACD is still currently bearish.

Recent volumes have been above average compared to the year prior, but not consistently which still indicates indecision among investors.

Two Friday’s ago closed in a hammer, which was followed by last Monday’s session with a gavestone doji mostly in the same range.

The rest of the week was marked by gappy trading up & down, with a couple of dragonfly dojis midweek, making the range that they were gapping around an interesting level to watch in the near-term.

They offer a 2.94% distribution yield, but investors should wait for them to establish a trend before starting or adding to an existing position.

GXC has support at the $72.78 (Volume Sentiment: ), $72.66 (Volume Sentiment: ), $70.21 (Volume Sentiment: ) & $69.34/share (Volume Sentiment: ) price levels, with resistance overhead at the $73.84 (Volume Sentiment: ), $74.45 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: ), $75.23 (Volume Sentiment: ) & $75.72/share (50 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: ) price levels.

Tying It All Together

Monday kicks off with ISM Manufacturing & Construction Spending data at 10 am before the markets close early for the Fourth of July.

Tuesday the markets will all be closed in observance of Fourth of July.

Wednesday begins with ADP Employment data at 8:15 am, followed by Factory Orders data at 10 am & at 2pm the Minutes of the Fed’s June FOMC Meeting are released.

On Thursday Initial Jobless Claims & the U.S. Trade Deficit data are reported at 8:30 am & at 10 am Job Openings & ISM Services data are set to be reported.

Levi Strauss will report earnings on Thursday.

The week concludes with the U.S. Employment Report, U.S. Unemployment Rate, U.S. Hourly Wages & Hourly Wages Year-over-Year data all coming out at 8:30 am on Friday.

AZZ is set to report earnings on Friday.

See you back here next week!

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM, DIA, GREK, FTEC, PAVE, IDRV, KRE, TAIL, FTAG, or GXC AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***