Author: OptimizedValue

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF closed the week down -9.07% while the VIX closed the week out at 45.31, indicating an implied one day move of +/-2.86% & an implied one month move of +/-13.1%.

Their RSI dropped into oversold territory & is currently at 23.43, while their MACD is deeply bearish, despite taking until Thursday to cross over.

Volumes were +112.07% above the prior year’s average (113,982,000 vs. 53,746,865), which shouldn’t be a surprise that it’s problematic given how Thursday & Friday’s declining volume eclipse most of the previous years’ levels.

Monday the week kicked off with a gap down open below the $550/share level, with a brief test lower towards $545, before the squeeze came along & the week’s third highest volume led to an advance that tested above the $560/share level, but managed to close at $559.39/share for the day.

Tuesday SPY opened lower, tested beneath the $555/share level, but managed to softly creep higher to close at $560.97 on the week’s lowest volume, a longer lower shadow than higher shadow & fear clearly setting in among market participants.

Wednesday opened lower at $555.05/share, briefly dipped below the $550/share level, before on the week’s second weakest volume climbing up to briefly break above the 10 day moving average’s resistance & the $565/share price level, & settling for the day in-line with the 10 DMA at $564.52/share.

While this may have been seen by some as a bullish head-fake, anyone who’s been following out notes over the past month know that the 10 DMA was going to be respected, if not oscillated around (last week’s note here).

Trouble set in on Thursday, when a gap down open to $536.70/share lead to a brief advance to a high of $547.97/share, before being pummeled down to $536.70/share at the close on the week’s second highest volume; setting the stage for a heavily “risk off into the weekend” Friday.

Friday didn’t disappoint for those who were watching the volume sentiment analyses posts, as a gap down open on the highest level of volume in the past 2+ years led to a large sell off heading into the weekend .

What’s more important than Friday’s eclipsing volume & -5.85% decline for the day is this week’s data set up.

Wednesday we get a hint into what March’s FOMC discussions looked like when the meeting minutes are released in the afternoon, which may lead to possible consolidation/a light, volume-less pump for the beginning of the week (unlikely, but possible), as market participants hope for near-term profits before more market catalyst news.

This is not the most likely, nor most important thing to focus on, but worth having in mind.

Thursday we get CPI data & Friday PPI data, which is more likely to be when we see meaningful market movements.

Oscillators such as RSI & MACD are currently both stretched bearishly to a point that they may continue downward (which will on Monday/Tuesday be more contingent on international markets or news we haven’t seen yet as of Sunday evening), but a breather on declines as mentioned above could be in the mix on two days of mostly unimportant earnings & limited market data being released.

But Wednesday will be a time to begin paying attention, as whatever is released in the minutes notes will be directly applicable to Thursday/Friday’s data & be something to focus on for formulating a near-to-mid-term hypothesis about where SPY goes next.

Thus far, volume sentiment tables like the one below have served good use, and look to continue to be reliable in the coming weeks.

In the coming week, we still are at the base case that any upward movement without substantial volumes behind it is nothing to think much of until there has been multiple sessions with above average advancing volume that establish an actual base.

Until then, treat all upside moves (particularly today, Tuesday 4/8’s) with a skeptical brow furrowed, as there will be short-term squeezes meant to bait market participants back into the pool for other folks to unload their shares on.

It is most likely that we see oscillations around the 10 DMA heading into mid-week, before the FOMC minutes & CPI/PPI nudge SPY in one direction or another heading into the latter half of the week.

Given how far off the 10 DMA is currently from Friday’s closing price, it is not unreasonable to expect to see prices squeeze up to attempt to fill the window created by Friday’s gap down open, but otherwise consolidation within the range of Friday’s large candle body will likely play out to be par for the course.

Given that the one year support levels are all almost exhausted, it is time to begin looking at the table below in relation to SPY’s 2 year support levels, as the volume sentiments that those levels have traded at are still relevant to the table data below & in the link to the broader volume sentiment analysis article.

SPY has support at the $505.48 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.2:1), $487.65 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.18:1), $448.85 (2 Year Chart, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.8:0*) & $443.22/share (2 Year Chart, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 4.45:1) price levels, with resistance at the $532.41 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.67:1), $534.38 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.67:1), $548.03 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.44:1) & $549.67/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.44:1) price levels.

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF declined -9.87%, as the tech heavy index took the biggest beating of the major four in this week’s carnage.

Their RSI is in oversold territory at 24.34, while heir MACD also crossed over bearishly on Thursday & is deeply bearish.

Volumes were +85.52% above the prior year’s average level (66,320,000 vs. 35,748,095), which should be setting off warning bells among even the most passive of market participants, as something a lot of folks have omitted from discussion recently is that for all of the passive retail investor moves out of tech, the ETF exposure to them will have to follow suit & sell.

While a handful of folks out there have been addressing this, it’s still not being discussed as much as you’d think, given the prominence of ETFs & the exposure they are able to give anyone to instruments that the average investor shouldn’t be playing with.

There’s also likely in the event of a major declining move going to be an interesting discussion in the events of bailouts, as should an ETF holding systemically important derivatives somehow earns being bought out, rather than allowed to fail, despite holding unique levered contracts on tech companies (based on ETF landscape, but not targeting tech specifically, just more likely to hit the sector than others based on how many ETFs there are out there/their focuses).

Monday the week began on a note of bearish uncertainty, when the session opened on a gap down at the third highest volume of the week, broke below the $460/share level, before rebounding & closing higher than the open, but two pennies shy of Friday’s close.

Tuesday the shaky upward movement continued on the week’s lowest volume, followed by a bullish engulfing candle from Wednesday’s session.

Wednesday had some bearish sentiment aside from the second lowest volume of the week too though, as the day’s high tested the resistance of the 10 DMA & the short-term trend line said no, which set the stage for the rest of the week.

Thursday opened on a gap down, temporarily ripped above the $460/share level, before declining lower on the second highest volume of the week to close at $450.66/share, setting the stage for a very bearish Friday.

Friday the risk off sentiment carried on, opening on a gap down, briefly testing higher, before declining-6.21%, and the declining volume bar is taller than the day’s candle, indicating a severe loss of confidence in QQQ.

Much like SPY, there’s going to need to be a significant improvement in sentiment before there is any chance of a reversal for QQQ, so we’re not going to get into the bullish case.

The bearish case will also be intriguing, as like SPY, QQQ is now moving into the 2 year chart in terms of support levels.

Their consolidation case will likely remain within the body of Friday’s candle until the 10 DMA catches up below, after which it will begin to oscillate around that support/resistance level while we await new news or technical indicators changing.

The table below & a two year support/resistance level chart will be of value in the coming week while QQQ gets itself sorted out.

QQQ has support at the $421.55 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.5:1), $410.56 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 4:1), $383.59 (2 Year Chart, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.63:1) & $376.52/share (2 Year Chart, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels, with resistance at the $440.36 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.27:1), $446.18 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2:1), $465.74 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2:1) & $473.41/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.19:1) price levels.

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF fell -9.61% last week, as small cap names were the second most dumped during the massive sell off.

Their RSI oversold at is 24.03, while their MACD crossed over bearishly on Thursday.

Volumes were +70.77% above the prior year’s average (49,612,000 vs. 29,052,579), mostly due to Thursday & Friday’s declining sessions that eclipsed most of the past year.

The week started off on a sour note for IWM, as a gap down open on Monday dipped below the $197.50/share level before powering higher, but volume was so light that there was not much bullish sentiment behind the move up to close higher than the session’s open.

Tuesday saw the week’s weakest volume for IWM, on a high wave spinning top candle, which left market participants with a taste of bearish uncertainty.

Wednesday also saw weak volume compared to the end of the week, but a bearish engulfing candle opened lower & closed above Tuesday’s close, but was unable to break above the 10 day moving average’s resistance.

From here it all literally tumbled downhill.

Thursday opened on a gap down, attempted to climb higher, but the $195/share level is where it met its match & it slid to <$190/share by the close on the week’s second highest volume.

Friday showed the same sentiment, where even higher volumes lead to a -4.46% decline heading into the weekend, and the downside $177.50/share level was temporarily broken.

As noted in SPY & QQQ above, IWM has no base case at the moment for advancing, so until there is a sustainable level of higher volumes consistently attained it’s not worth looking into from a long-term perspective.

They’ve exhausted all of their support on the one year chart, so the table data below is best applied to their 2 year charts for seeing how they may ease their way into further declines (or not).

IWM has support at the $181.12 (2 Year Chart, Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.35:1), $164.61 (2 Year Chart, Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.4:0*), $158.85 (2 Year Chart, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $157.17/share (3 Year Chart, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels, with resistance at the $189.17 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.32:1), $195.01 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.47:1), $195.72 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.47:1) & $196.56/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2:1) price levels.

DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF fared the best of the majors, only losing -7.8% for the week as the blue chip index was still the favorite option among market participants.

Their RSI is in oversold territory at 23.95, while their MACD is bearish since Thursday.

Volumes were +48.06% above the prior year’s average (4,756,000 vs. 3,212,262), as even the blue chip index is beginning to see the lights turn on & folks head home.

Rather than dive into the day-over-day analysis, in DIA’s case here it is really all boiling down to Thursday & Friday’s outflow volume.

While the blue chip names have remained a favorite among market participants vs. their peers, this too has begun to unwind & we’re now looking at their 2 year chart to find support levels.

Their relatively less intense declines by both price & volume are troubling here, as if the markets actually get really spooked on Wednesday/heading into the weekend the tidal wave that DIA outflows causes across other names will be noteworthy & something to watch.

In the meantime, this is something to consider, as any weakness in DIA in the coming week(s) will send shock waves across the other major indexes & cause larger issues across the board, particularly given that bank earnings kick off on Friday in addition to the other previously mentioned potential catalysts.

A two year chart for DIA & the table below are worth examining heading into the rest of the week.

DIA has support at the $380.57 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.05:1), $375.09 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.06:1), $370.13 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.6:1) & $346.30/share (2 Year Chart, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 23:1) price levels, with resistance at the $393.57 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.33:1), $395.11 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.33:1), $396.59 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.75:1) & $406.47/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.17:1) price levels.

The Week Ahead

Monday the week begins with Consumer Credit data at 3 pm.

Dave & Busters, Greenbrier & Levi Strauss all report earnings after Monday’s closing bell.

NFIB Optimism Index data comes out Tuesday at 6 am.

Tuesday morning begins with earnings from WD-40, RPM & Tilray, followed by Cal-Maine Foods after the session’s close.

Wednesday brings us Wholesale Inventories data at 10 am, followed by the Minutes of March’s FOMC Meeting at 2 pm.

Delta Airlines, Neogen & Simply Good Foods report earnings before Wednesday’s opening bell, before Constellation Brands & PriceSmart report after the session’s close.

Initial Jobless Claims, Consumer Price Index, CPI Year-over-Year, Core CPI & Core CPI Year-over-Year data are released Thursday at 8:30 am, before Fed President Goolsbee speaks at 12 pm & Monthly U.S. Federal Budget data gets released at 2 pm.

Thursday morning’s earnings calls include CarMax & Lovesac, with no noteworthy reports after the closing bell.

Friday the week winds down with Producer Price Index, Core PPI, PPI Year-over-Year & Core PPI Year-over-Year data at 8:30 am, followed by Consumer Sentiment (prelim) at 10 am & Fed President Williams speaking at 11 am.

JP Morgan Chase, Blackrock, BNY Mellon, Fastenal, Morgan Stanley & Wells Fargo all report earnings before Friday mornings opening bell.

See you back here next week!

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM OR DIA AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***

It’s been about a month & a half since our last check in on Volume Sentiment Analysis on 2/19/2025, in an environment of heightened volatility, which was easier to navigate with the last note.

Last night the VIX closed at 21.77, indicating an implied one day move of +/-1.37% & an implied one month move of +/-6.29% for the S&P 500.

Volumes have slowly begun creeping back to their previous year’s normal levels Y-o-Y over the past few weeks, after a year of subpar volume vs. the prior year’s previous year’s average volume level, but there is still a long way to go considering how many months of weak participation we saw in 2024.

Using last week’s note as a benchmark Y-o-Y SPY prior year’s average volume is -32.31% compared to one year ago (52,680,680 vs. 77,829,780), QQQ’s is -28.53% Y-o-Y (35,199,440 vs. 49,253,412), IWM’s is -16.41% Y-o-Y (28,651,440 vs. 34,276,900) & DIA’s is -6.36% Y-o-Y (3,188,480 vs. 3,405,069) (prior year’s numbers found here).

Looking at their charts though these levels are becoming more & more elevated as 2025 wears on, which is a trend unlikely to stop anytime soon.

Manufacturing activity contracted M-o-M & investors are eagerly awaiting today’s tariff news in the coming hours to see which direction the markets will react in.

In these volatile times it is imperative to have an understanding of how volume is impacting market participants & their decisions.

With this in mind, it is important to understand how each index ETF has performed in recent history, as it lends clues into the strength/weakness of each index’s support/resistance levels.

This can be valuable when assessing risk in the event of retests of any of these levels.

Each section below contains a view of each index ETF’s chart (for a technical breakdown of each ETF’s chart please see this past weekend’s market review note), as well as a list of their current one year support & resistance levels with the volume sentiment noted beneath it on the table.

There is an additional table beneath this table with each price level’s sentiment, as well as a typed text version below that is able to be copied & pasted.

Note that “NULL, 0:0*” values denote areas that each name has traded at but with limited volume data to work with from a comparison standpoint in terms of creating a ratio of buyers:sellers (or vice versa) or is the outlier above the highest/lowest level with price data.

Also, prices that do have a ratio of Buyers:Sellers (Sellers:Buyers) where the denominator is 0 are denoted with an asterisk “*” as well.

In the written lists of the price levels & volume sentiments the price levels that contain support & resistance levels are marked in BOLD.

Recall that at price extremes such as the highs that we have recently hit there will tend to be skewed data due to the small sample size & factor that into how you interpret each price level’s reported sentiment.

This is intended to serve as an additional tool, similar to a barometer to use during your due diligence process & is not meant to replace doing your own research & is not financial advice.

Price Level:Volume Sentiment Analysis For SPY, The SPDR S&P 500 ETF

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF‘s volume has begun to reaccelerate in March of 2025, and looks likely that this trend will be continuing for some time.

With volatility likely to continue on as well it is worth reviewing the table below to understand how market participants have behaved at each price level & support/resistance level that they may retest.

It is also worth noting that there are more resistance levels from the past year than support levels now for SPY & that their 50 day moving average is fast approaching their 200 DMA bearishly.

For a more detailed technical analysis of SPY see Sunday’s market review note in the links above.

$610 – Buyers – 0.2:0*, +8.74% From Current Price

$605 – Buyers – 1.5:1, +7.85% From Current Price

$600 – Buyers – 1.38:1, +6.96% From Current Price

$595 – Sellers – 1.35:1, +6.07% From Current Price

$590 – Buyers – 3.42:1, +5.17% From Current Price

$585 – Buyers – 2.15:1, +4.28% From Current Price – 50 Day Moving Average*

$580 – Sellers – 2.11:1, +3.39% From Current Price

$575 – Sellers – 1.33:1, +2.5% From Current Price

$570 – Buyers – 1.54:1, +1.61% From Current Price – 200 Day Moving Average*

$565 – Buyers – 1.4:1, +0.72% From Current Price – 10 Day Moving Average*

$560 – Sellers – 1.45:1, -0.17% From Current Price – Current Price Level*

$555 – Buyers – 1.46:1, -1.06% From Current Price

$550 – Sellers – 1.22:1, -1.96% From Current Price

$545 – Buyers – 1.44:1, -2.85% From Current Price

$540 – Buyers – 1.92:1, -3.74% From Current Price

$535 – Sellers – 1.41:1, -4.63% From Current Price

$530 – Buyers – 2.67:1, -5.52% From Current Price

$525 – Buyers – 1.7:1, -6.41% From Current Price

$520 – Buyers – 4.43:1, -7.3% From Current Price

$515 – Sellers – 1.05:1, -8.19% From Current Price

$510 – Buyers – 1.5:1, -9.09% From Current Price

$505 – Sellers – 1.2:1, -9.98% From Current Price

$500 – Buyers – 1.07:1, -10.87% From Current Price

$496 – Sellers – 1.26:1, -11.58% From Current Price

$492 – Sellers – 1.79:1, -12.29% From Current Price

$488 – Buyers – 1.12:1, -13.01% From Current Price

$484 – Sellers – 1.18:1, -13.72% From Current Price

$480 – Buyers – 5.67:1, -14.43% From Current Price

$476 – Buyers – 2:1, -15.15% From Current Price

$472 – Buyers – 1.75:1, -15.86% From Current Price

$468 – Buyers – 6:1, -16.57% From Current Price

$464 – Sellers – 1.27:1, -17.29% From Current Price

$460 – Sellers – 1.19:1, -18% From Current Price

$456 – Sellers – 0.7:0*, -18.71% From Current Price

$452 – Buyers – 1:0*, -19.43% From Current Price

$448 – Buyers – 1.8:0*, -20.14% From Current Price

$444 – Buyers – 1.53:1, -20.85% From Current Price

$440 – Buyers – 4.46:1, -21.56% From Current Price

$436 – Sellers – 1.03:1, -22.28% From Current Price

$432 – Even – 1:1, -22.99% From Current Price

$428 – Buyers – 1.18:1, -23.7% From Current Price

$424 – Buyers – 1.59:1, -24.42% From Current Price

$420 – Sellers – 1.05:1, -25.13% From Current Price

$416 – Buyers – 1.06:1, -25.84% From Current Price

$412 – Sellers – 1.62:1, -26.56% From Current Price

$408 – Buyers – 3.64:1, -27.27% From Current Price

$404 – Sellers – 1.1:1, -27.98% From Current Price

$400 – Buyers – 1.75:1, -28.69% From Current Price

$396 – Sellers – 1.15:1, -29.41% From Current Price

$392 – Sellers – 1.63:1, -30.12% From Current Price

$388 – Buyers – 3.16:1, -30.83% From Current Price

$384 – Buyers – 1.59:1, -31.55% From Current Price

$380 – buyers – 1.23:1, -32.26% From Current Price

$376 – Sellers – 2.17:1, -32.97% From Current Price

$372 – Sellers – 1.92:1, -33.69% From Current Price

$368 – Sellers – 1.61:1, -34.4% From Current Price

$364 – Sellers – 1.67:1, -35.11% From Current Price

$360 – Sellers – 1.29:1, -35.83% From Current Price

$356 – Sellers – 2.06:1, -36.54% From Current Price

$352 – Buyers – 1.2:1, -37.25% From Current Price

$348 – Sellers – 4.44:1, -37.96% From Current Price

$344 – Sellers – 3.8:0*, -38.68% From Current Price

$340 -NULL – 0:0*, -39.39% From Current Price

Price Level:Volume Sentiment Analysis For QQQ, The Invesco QQQ Trust ETF

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF has also begun to rise from the ashes amid increased volatility in March.

The only way QQQ can find any sustainable legs to climb upon will require a dramatic uptick in advancing volume, which will require a strong macro catalyst based on its current performance.

Like SPY, QQQ is also closer to the bottom of their one year chart than not in terms of resistance:support levels, and with their MACD set to cross bearish by the end of the week & a bearish 50 DMA crossover of the 200 DMA in the coming week or two it will be important to understand their volume trends in order to navigate their price movements.

$540 – NULL – 0:0*, +14.24% From Current Price

$535 – Buyers – 6.67:1, +13.18% From Current Price

$530 – Buyers – 3.33:1, +12.12% From Current Price

$525 – Buyers – 1.35:1, +11.06% From Current Price

$520 – Buyers – 1.53:1, +10.01% From Current Price

$515 – Buyers – 1.5:1, +8.95% From Current Price

$510 – Sellers – 2.79:1, +7.89% From Current Price

$505 – Buyers – 1.25:1, +6.83% From Current Price – 50 Day Moving Average*

$500 – Buyers – 1.65:1, +5.78% From Current Price

$496 – Sellers – 1.4:1, +4.93% From Current Price

$492 – Buyers – 2.61:1, +4.08% From Current Price – 200 Day Moving Average*

$488 – Buyers – 2.16:1, +3.24% From Current Price

$484 – Buyers – 1.17:1, +2.39% From Current Price

$480 – Buyers – 2.3:1, +1.54% From Current Price

$476 – Sellers – 1.2:1, +0.7% From Current Price – 10 Day Moving Average*

$472 – Sellers – 1.19:1, -0.15% From Current Price – Current Price Level*

$468 – Sellers – 1.88:1, -0.99% From Current Price

$464 – Buyers – 2:1, -1.84% From Current Price

$460 – Buyers – 1.78:1, -2.69% From Current Price

$456 – Sellers – 1.94:1, -3.53% From Current Price

$452 – Buyers – 1.36:1, -4.38% From Current Price

$448 – Buyers – 1.17:1, -5.23% From Current Price

$444 – Sellers – 3:1, -6.07% From Current Price

$440 – Buyers – 3.27:1, -6.92% From Current Price

$436 – Buyers – 3.29:1, -7.76% From Current Price

$432 – Sellers – 1.88:1, -8.61% From Current Price

$428 – Buyers – 2.09:1, -9.46% From Current Price

$424 – Sellers – 1.86:1, -10.3% From Current Price

$420 – Sellers – 1.5:1, -11.15% From Current Price

$416 – Buyers – 4.5:1, -11.99% From Current Price

$412 – Sellers – 2.3:0*, -12.84% From Current Price

$408 – Buyers – 4:1, -13.69% From Current Price

$404 – Buyers – 1.91:1, -14.53% From Current Price

$400 – Buyers – 3:0*, -15.38% From Current Price

$396 – Sellers – 2.6:1, -16.23% From Current Price

$392 – Even – 1:1, -17.07% From Current Price

$388 – Buyers – 1.5:0*, -17.92% From Current Price

$384 – Buyers – 1.2:1, -18.76% From Current Price

$380 – Buyers – 2.63:1, -19.61% From Current Price

$376 – NULL – 0:0*, -20.46% From Current Price

$372 – Buyers – 3:1, -21.3% From Current Price

$368 – Buyers – 2.71:1, -22.15% From Current Price

$364 – Buyers – 1.02:1, -23% From Current Price

$360 – Buyers – 1.8:1, -23.84% From Current Price

$356 – Buyers – 1.41:1, -24.69% From Current Price

$352 – Buyers – 3.17:1, -25.53% From Current Price

$348 – Sellers – 3:1, -26.38% From Current Price

$344 – Buyers – 1.64:1, -27.23% From Current Price

$340 -Sellers – 1.09:1, -28.07% From Current Price

$336 – NULL – 0:0*, -28.92% From Current Price

Price Level:Volume Sentiment Analysis For IWM, The iShares Russell 2000 ETF

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF has seen less drastic cuts in average volume over the past year, but it has begun to uptick as well in March of 2025.

It’s of note that the majority of their one-year support levels fall in the $195-01-196.56 zone, before it opens up to the last line of support from the past year, $189.17.

They’ve already recently broken down to the $195.49/share level, which is going to be an area to keep an eye on in the coming week(s), as a breakdown there could spell more trouble for IWM.

$244 – NULL – 0:0*, +22.3% From Current Price

$240 – Buyers – 3.33:1, +20.29% From Current Price

$236 – Buyers – 1.31:1, +18.29% From Current Price

$232 – Buyers – 1.5:1, +16.28% From Current Price

$228 – Buyers – 1.29:1, +14.28% From Current Price

$224 – Sellers – 1.19:1, +12.28% From Current Price

$220 – Buyers – 1.42:1, +10.27% From Current Price

$216 – Buyers – 1.28:1, +8.27% From Current Price – 200 Day Moving Average*

$212 – Sellers – 1.4:1, +6.26% From Current Price – 50 Day Moving Average*

$208 – Buyers – 1.48:1, +4.26% From Current Price

$204 – Buyers – 1.13:1, +2.25% From Current Price – 10 Day Moving Average*

$200 – Buyers – 1.14:1, +0.25% From Current Price

$198 – Sellers – 1.3:1, -0.76% From Current Price – Current Price Level*

$196 – Buyers – 2:1, -1.76% From Current Price

$194 – Buyers – 1.47:1, -2.76% From Current Price

$192 – Buyers – 1.21:1, -3.76% From Current Price

$190 – Sellers – 4.38:1, -4.77% From Current Price

$188 – Buyers – 1.32:1, -5.77% From Current Price

$186 – Buyers – 1.08:1, -6.77% From Current Price

$184 – Buyers – 2.8:1, -7.77% From Current Price

$182 – Buyers – 2.5:1, -8.78% From Current Price

$180 – Sellers – 1.35:1, -9.78% From Current Price

$178 – Sellers – 1.65:1, -10.78% From Current Price

$176 – Buyers – 1.8:1, -11.78% From Current Price

$174 – Buyers – 2.21:1, -12.79% From Current Price

$172 – Even – 1:1, -13.79% From Current Price

$170 – Buyers – 1.84:1, -14.79% From Current Price

$168 – Sellers – 2.07:1, -15.79% From Current Price

$166 – Sellers – 2.5:1, -16.80% From Current Price

$164 – Sellers – 1.4:0*, -17.8% From Current Price

$162 – Sellers – 1.2:1, -18.8% From Current Price

$160 – Buyers – 1.5:1, -19.8% From Current Price

$158 – NULL – 0:0*, -20.81% From Current Price

Price Level:Volume Sentiment Analysis For DIA, The SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF

DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF has seen the most consistent volumes Y-o-Y & has been the most resilient of the major four index ETFs, given that investors are still buying & holding onto blue chip names.

This has given them a unique chart compared to the three aforementioned index ETF’s, as their volumes have been less active of recent.

It’s also worth noting that they have more one year support than resistance levels, unlike the others.

Still, it will prove important to have an understanding of their prior volume sentiments when they retest price levels in the near-future.

$448 – NULL – 0:0*, +6.77% From Current Price

$444 – Buyers – 2.3:0*, +5.82% From Current Price

$440 – Sellers – 1.86:1, +4.86% From Current Price

$436 – Buyers – 3.17:1, +3.91% From Current Price

$432 – Buyers – 1.75:1, +2.96% From Current Price – 50 Day Moving Average*

$428 – Even – 1:1, +2% From Current Price

$424 – Buyers – 1.33:1, +1.05% From Current Price

$420 – Sellers – 1.15:1, +0.1% From Current Price – 10 Day Moving Average*

$416 – Buyers – 1.63:1, -0.86% From Current Price – Current Price Level & 200 Day Moving Average**

$412 – Sellers – 3.75:1, -1.81% From Current Price

$408 – Buyers – 3.67:1,. -2.76% From Current Price

$404 – Buyers – 3.17:1, -3.72% From Current Price

$400 – Buyers – 1.22:1, -4.67% From Current Price

$396 – Sellers – 1.75:1, -5.62% From Current Price

$392 – Buyers – 2.33:1, -6.58% From Current Price

$388 – Buyers – 1.64:1, -7.53% From Current Price

$384 – Buyers – 1.44:1, -8.48% From Current Price

$380 – Buyers – 1.05:1, -9.44% From Current Price

$376 – Buyers – 1.43:1, -10.39% From Current Price

$372 – Buyers – 1.06:1, -11.34% From Current Price

$368 – Buyers – 1.6:1, -12.3% From Current Price

$364 – Buyers – 1.92:1, -13.25% From Current Price

$360 – Sellers – 1.5:1, -14.2% From Current Price

$356 – Buyers – 0.4:0*, -15.16% From Current Price

$352 – Even – 1:1, -16.11% From Current Price

$348 – Buyers – 0.2:0*, -17.06% From Current Price

$344 – Buyers – 23:1, -18.02% From Current Price

$340 – Sellers – 1.11:1, -18.97% From Current Price

$336 – Buyers – 1.32:1, -19.92% From Current Price

$332 – Buyers – 1.21:1, -20.88% From Current Price

$328 – Buyers – 1.67:1, -21.83% From Current Price

$324 – Buyers – 1.02:1, -22.78% From Current Price

$320 – Sellers – 1.06:1, -23.74% From Current Price

$316 – Sellers – 1.88:1, -24.69% From Current Price

$312 – Buyers – 1.03:1, -25.64% From Current Price

$308 – Sellers – 1.19:1, -26.6% From Current Price

$304 – Sellers – 1.91:1, -27.55% From Current Price

$300 – Buyers – 1.11:1, -28.5% From Current Price

$296 – Sellers – 1.69:1, -29.45% From Current Price

$292 – Sellers – 3:1, -30.41% From Current Price

$288 – Sellers – 1.17:1, -31.36% From Current Price

$284 – Sellers – 1.67:1, -32.31% From Current Price

$280 – Even – 1:1, -33.27% From Current Price

$276 – Sellers – 8.5:1, -34.22% From Current Price

$272 – NULL – 0:0*, -35.17% From Current Price

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM OR DIA AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF ended the week -1.48% lower, while the VIX closed the week at 21.65, indicating an implied one day move of +/-1.36% & an implied one month move of +/-6.26%.

Their RSI is trending down towards oversold levels & currently sits at 38.17, while their MACD is bullish, but has curled over bearishly & looks primed to cross the signal line on Tuesday.

Volumes were -0.08% lower than the prior year’s average (52,636,000 vs. 52,680,680), which shows a lack of investor optimism based on the three day decline streak that ended the week.

Monday the week kicked off on a gap up session to open & remain above the support of the 200 day moving average on the week’s second highest volume.

This pump was short lived though, as Tuesday went on to show that there were no legs supporting that one day rally when the week’s lowest volume session opened on a gap up & closed setting up for an evening doji star reversal.

Wednesday opened slightly lower than Tuesday, but selling pressure mounted & the 200 day moving average’s support broke down & SPY managed to close beneath it, setting the stage for the declines of the rest of the week.

Thursday SPY opened on a gap down, briefly tested the 200 DMA’s resistance overhead, but was rejected & closed as a doji just above the 10 DMA’s support.

Friday SPY’s short term trend broke down, as it opened on a gap lower & declined -2.01% on the week’s strongest volume, indicating that there was not much appetite for holding risk heading into the weekend.

For the week ahead, much of last week’s note is still in play, given how close their week-over-week closing levels were.

There is still no base forming for SPY & uncertainty seems to be lingering longer than many had thought.

Extreme caution should follow any movements to the upside without stronger than average volume attached to them, as was shown by Monday & Tuesday’s sessions of last week.

If SPY is able to consolidate within the range it is in & maintain above $548.03 we may witness the 200 DMA become a stronger level for support which would help move SPY higher.

However, the longer it takes for that to occur the less likely it becomes, given that the 50 day moving average is moving bearishly towards the 200 DMA.

In the event of further declines that $548.03 level will be imperative for SPY to keep its head above, as otherwise it lacks any support until $534.38, and it has zones of historic selling pressure to help lower it down there based on investor behavior over the past ~2-3 years.

Look for continued oscillations around the 10 day moving average moving into the week as SPY tries to establish a base, else that $548.03/share level.

SPY has support at the $549.67 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.06:1), $548.03 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.06:1), $534.38 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.5:1) & $532.41/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.5:1) price levels, with resistance at the $558.91 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.44:1), $559.86 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.44:1), $564.29 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.8:0*) & $570.79/share (200 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 5.33:1) price levels.

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF declined -2.47% last week, as the tech-heavy index fared the worst of the major four.

Their RSI is declining towards the oversold 30 mark & sits currently at 37.18, while their MACD is still bullish, but should be crossing bearishly through the signal line by Wednesday.

Volumes were -0.29% lower than the prior year’s average (35,096,000 vs. 35,199,440), which confirms that the long-term trend has broken yet again for QQQ after Tuesday’s attempt to break out above it.

Monday opened QQQ’s week up on a gap up, but intraday the $485/share level was briefly broken through to the downside, before investors piled in to push it higher to close the day.

Tuesday opened with another gap up, a brief dip lower before breaking out above the 200 day moving average to close above the long-term trend line.

However, Tuesday carried the week’s weakest volume, making it clear that there was not a lot of bullish sentiment behind the false breakout.

Wednesday confirmed this when QQQ opened in-line with the 200 DMA & then sunk to below the $485/share level.

Thursday opened on a gap lower to be in-line with the 10 day moving average, temporarily was squeezed above the $485/share level, before breaking back below the 10 day moving average temporarily & closing in-line with it as a doji candle.

This didn’t just signify indecision, but also would set the stage for how QQQ’s short-term trend-line is viewed by market participants, which they voiced their opinions of on Friday.

Friday opened with a gap down & the highest volume session of the week resulted in a -2.63% decline for QQQ.

Like SPY, QQQ is in relatively the same position it was in last week.

There will be no lasting upside movements without a major influx in advancing volume that occurs for many days, not just a session or two & a base will need to form to act as support as well.

In the event of consolidation, expect to see prices oscillate around the 10 day moving average while waiting to observe if a base that can provide actual support forms.

In the event of further declines, the $446.18/share support level should be watched, as if that breaks down the $440.36 level will become a new downside frontier.

While it resides in a Buyer heavy zone, such a heavy ratio may mean that there will be more sellers stepping in to dilute the ratio, which will be an area to watch in the event that the level is approached.

QQQ has support at the $465.74 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.6:0*), $457.78 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.89:1), $446.18 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.4:1) & $440.36/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 4.22:1) price levels, with resistance at the $473.41 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.52:1), $481.38 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.24:1), $483.36 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.24:1) & $492.96/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 4.13:1) price levels.

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF fell -1.64% last week, as small cap names were the second least favorite by index.

Their RSI is is declining towards the oversold level of 30 & sits currently at 37.33, while their MACD looks ready to cross bearishly through the signal line by Wednesday.

Volumes were -20.67% lower than the prior year’s average (22,730,000 vs. 28,651,440), as while the index fell, there was a more cautious approach to selling compared to what we saw with SPY & QQQ.

Monday the week began just like SPY & QQQ’s with a giant gap up on muted volume.

Tuesday showed even lower volume, but the day resulted in decline that formed a bearish harami pattern with Monday’s candle, setting the stage for the declines of the rest of the week.

Wednesday the low volume trend continued as IWM slid to test the 10 day moving average’s support briefly intraday, but managed to close above it.

Thursday opened on a gap down in-line with the 10 day moving average, tested higher & below it before closing below the 10 DMA’s resistance, indicating that there was a loss of faith in the short-term trend line.

The subdued volume that was the second highest of the week, paired with the spinning top candle indicated that there’s still a bit of uncertainty about the near-term for IWM & the small caps, but that people aren’t inclined to be holding much risk at the moment.

Friday morning brought us another gap down open, and the week’s highest volume session resulted in a decline of -2.03%, as it was made clear that no one was overly keen on the thought of carrying risk into the weekend.

Much like SPY & QQQ, IWM’s short-term advances should be viewed skeptically in the near-term.

Without a dramatic uptick in volume that lasts for many sessions IWM is still sitting on unsteady ground.

If the $195.01-196.56 support zone holds up we may be able to find a short term consolidation that could serve as a base, but if that doesn’t occur IWM enters deeper into Seller dominated territory & additional losses should be expected, until the $189.17/share support level.

IWM has support at the $196.56 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.5:1), $195.72 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.15:1), $195.01 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.15:1) & $189.17/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.64:1) price levels, with resistance at the $202.46 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.54:1), $205.06 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.21:1), $205.49 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.21:1) & $207.39/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.21:1) price levels.

DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF dipped -0.95% last week, as the blue chip index was able to tread water in comparison to the other major four indexes.

Their RSI is declining towards the oversold mark & sits currently at 39.72, while their MACD looks primed to cross over bearishly by mid-week.

Volumes were -17.45% lower than the prior year’s average (2,632,000 vs. 3,188,480), which shows that market participants were taking a bit of a wait & see approach to the blue chip index.

In a rare event, SPY, QQQ, IWM & DIA all began the week in the same manner, gap up opens on weak volume.

Tuesday opened on another gap up, but this time there was a healthy dose of volume with it, but there was still hints of bearishness creeping in by the close of trading.

The session resulted in a hanging man candle, with an additional hint of bearish sentiment in their close being lower than their open.

Wednesday is when things began breaking down, as while the $128.14/share level was tested to the upside, it was abruptly denied & the session closed below the $425/share level.

Thursday the bearish sentiment continued with a gap down open, a brief attempt to trade above $425/share that did not last long, before declining further to end the day as a spinning top candle.

Friday DIA emerged with a gap down open that then proceeded to decline below the support of both the 10 & 200 day moving averages before closing -1.73% on the week’s second highest volume as there was limited risk appetite over the weekend among market participants.

Like the previous three index ETFs, dramatic upside advancing volume will be required before DIA can begin climbing sustainably, and all near-term advances should be treated with caution & skepticism.

A consolidation featuring oscillations around the 200 DMA while market participants decide how much faith they still have in the long-term trend line is also a possibility on the near-term menu, particularly as the volume sentiment in DIA’s current price zone has historically been Even 1:1 between Buyers:Sellers over the past ~4-5 years.

DIA’s remained resilient relatively speaking compared to the other index ETFs, but it is not immune from declines, particularly if the right macro catalyst comes along, such as a reaction to new tariffs.

In the event DIA begins to decline, the table below is a good place to review how market participants may step in or out based on their price level.

DIA has support at the $413.42 (Volume Sentiment: Even, 1:1), $412.17 (Volume Sentiment: Even, 1:1), $407.35 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.4:1) & $406.47/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.4:1) price levels, with resistance at the $416.93 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.11:1), $418.54 (200 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.11:1), $420.13 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.5:1) & $420.68/share (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.5:1) price levels.

The Week Ahead

Monday the week begins with the Chicago Business Barometer (PMI) at 9:45 am.

Loar Holdings reports earnings before Monday’s opening bell, followed by PVH & Tech Target after the session’s close.

S&P Final U.S. Manufacturing PMI data is released Tuesday at 9:45 am, followed by Construction Spending, ISM Manufacturing & Job Openings data at 10 am & Auto Sales data TBD.

Tuesday afternoon brings us earnings from nCino.

Wednesday morning begins with ADP Employment data at 8:15 am, before Factory Orders data at 10 am & Fed Governor Kugler speaking at 4:30 pm.

AngioDynamics, Cognyte Software & UniFirst report earnings before Wednesday’s opening bell, before RH, BlackBerry & Penguin Solutions report after the session’s close.

Initial Jobless Claims & U.S. Trade Deficit data come out at 8:30 am on Thursday, followed by S&P Final U.S. Services PMI data at 9:45 am, ISM Services data at 10 am, Fed Vice Chairman Jefferson speaking at 12:30 pm & Fed Governor Cook speaking at 2:30 pm.

Thursday’s before the bell earnings calls include Acuity, Conagra, Lamb Weston, Lindsay Corp & MSC Industrial, followed by Guess? & Simulations Plus after the closing bell.

Friday the week winds down with U.S. Employment Report, U.S. Unemployment Rate, U.S. Hourly Wages & Hourly Wages Year-over-Year data at 8:30 am, Fed Chairman Powell speaking at 11:25 am, Fed Governor Barr speaking at 12 pm & Fed Governor Waller speaking at 12:45 pm.

Greenbrier reports earnings before Friday morning’s opening bell.

See you back here next week!

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM OR DIA AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***