Category: Market News, Research & Commentary

Stocks have had an interesting & full past month & a half since our last Volume Sentiment Analysis on 1/2/25, featuring declines, advances & a bit of consolidation as well.

SPY & QQQ are still near all-time highs, DIA’s ~1% below their ATH & IWM has been in a relatively range-bound oscillation phase.

Meanwhile, last night the VIX closed at 15.35, indicating an implied one day move of +/-0.97% & an implied one month move of +/-4.44% for the S&P 500.

There are a lot of mixed signals out there, but one thing is certain, market participants have lost steam & are beginning to get a bit nervous.

As noted in this week’s note, when comparing the previous year’s average volume vs. that same metric from 2/18/2024 SPY’s average volume is down -34.7% Y-o-Y, QQQ’s average volume is down -31.44% Y-o-Y, IWM’s is -15.93% lower Y-o-Y & DIA’s is -6% lower Y-o-Y.

This will need to change if there is going to be any meaningful breakouts above the recent all-time highs that are sustainable runs.

January’s FOMC minutes are due to be released this afternoon, NVDA reports earnings one week from today & there are still many other earnings reports due out this & next week, which are all things that traders & investors are waiting on before deciding their next moves.

With this in mind, it is important to understand how each index ETF has performed in recent history, as it lends clues into the strength/weakness of each index’s support/resistance levels.

This can be valuable when assessing risk in the event of retests of any of these levels.

Each section below contains a view of each index ETF’s chart (for a technical breakdown of each ETF’s chart please see this past weekend’s market review note), as well as a list of their current one year support & resistance levels with the volume sentiment noted beneath it on the table.

There is an additional table beneath this table with each price level’s sentiment, as well as a typed text version below that is able to be copied & pasted.

Note that “NULL, 0:0*” values denote areas that each name has traded at but with limited volume data to work with from a comparison standpoint in terms of creating a ratio of buyers:sellers (or vice versa) or is the outlier above the highest/lowest level with price data.

Also, prices that do have a ratio of Buyers:Sellers (Sellers:Buyers) where the denominator is 0 are denoted with an asterisk “*” as well.

In the written lists of the price levels & volume sentiments the price levels that contain support & resistance levels are marked in BOLD.

Recall that at price extremes such as the highs that we have recently hit there will tend to be skewed data due to the small sample size & factor that into how you interpret each price level’s reported sentiment.

This is intended to serve as an additional tool, similar to a barometer to use during your due diligence process & is not meant to replace doing your own research & is not financial advice.

Price Level:Volume Sentiment Analysis For SPY, The SPDR S&P 500 ETF

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF‘s volume above is concerning, given that their resistance level is their all-time high but volumes have been visibly declining throughout 2025.

In the event that there is no catalyst higher the data below will be helpful to assess the risks associated with each support level’s retest in the near-term.

The flattening of SPY’s moving averages is also an area of concern, making it even more important to review the data in the tables below, which outlines the volume sentiments of each price level SPY has traded at over the past ~3 years.

$610 – NULL – 0:0*, -0.24% From Current Price Level – Current Price Level & All-Time High**

$605 – Buyers – 5.5:1, -1.06% From Current Price Level – 10 Day Moving Average*

$600 – Sellers – 1.04:1, -1.88% From Current Price Level

$595 – Buyers – 1.47:1, -2.7% From Current Price Level – 50 Day Moving Average*

$590 – Buyers – 4:1, -3.51% From Current Price Level

$585 – Buyers – 1.55:1, -4.33% From Current Price Level

$580 – Sellers – 1.88:1, -5.15% From Current Price Level

$575 – Buyers – 1.08:1, -5.97% From Current Price Level

$570 – Buyers – 5.33:1, -6.79% From Current Price Level

$565 – Sellers -1.59:1, -7.6% From Current Price Level

$560 – Buyers – 1.8:0*, -8.42% From Current Price Level – 200 Day Moving Average*

$555 – Buyers – 3.44:1, -9.24% From Current Price Level

$550 – Buyers – 1.25:1, -10.06% From Current Price Level

$545 – Sellers – 1.06:1, -10.87% From Current Price Level

$540 – Buyers – 2.42:1, -11.69% From Current Price Level

$535 – Sellers – 1.36:1, -12.51% From Current Price Level

$530 – Buyers – 1.5:1, -13.33% From Current Price Level

$525 – Buyers – 1.6:1, -14.14% From Current Price Level

$520 – Buyers -2.08:1, -14.96% From Current Price Level

$515 – Buyers – 1.33:1, -15.78% From Current Price Level

$510 – Buyers – 1.9:1, -16.6% From Current Price Level

$505 – Sellers – 1.65:1, -17.14% From Current Price Level

$500 -Buyers – 1.8:1, -18.23% From Current Price Level

$496 – Sellers – 2.9:0*, -18.89% From Current Price Level

$492 – Buyers – 1.24:1, -19.54% From Current Price Level

$488 – Buyers – 1.45:1, -20.19% From Current Price Level

$484 – Sellers – 1.67:1, -20.85% From Current Price Level

$480 – Buyers – 2.2:1, -21.5% From Current Price Level

$476 – Buyers – 2.33:1, -22.16% From Current Price Level

$472 – NULL – 0:0*, – 22.81% From Current Price Level

$468 – Buyers – 1.95:1, -23.47% From Current Price Level

$464 – Buyers – 1.35:1, -24.12% From Current Price Level

$460 – Sellers – 2.33:1, -24.77% From Current Price Level

$456 – Buyers – 0.4:0*, -25.43% From Current Price Level

$452 – Buyers – 1:0*, -26.08% From Current Price Level

$448 – Buyers- 2:1, -26.74% From Current Price Level

$444 – Buyers – 2.21:1, -27.39% From Current Price Level

$440 – Buyers – 2:1, -28.04% From Current Price Level

$436 – Sellers – 1.09:1, -28.7% From Current Price Level

$432 – Buyers – 1.24:1, -29.35% From Current Price Level

$428 – Sellers – 1.21:1, -30.01% From Current Price Level

$424 – Buyers – 1.38:1, -30.66% From Current Price Level

$420 – Sellers – 1.19:1, -31.32% From Current Price Level

$416 – Buyers – 1.34:1, -31.97% From Current Price Level

$412 – Sellers – 1.11:1, -32.62% From Current Price Level

$408 – Buyers – 3.18:1, -33.28% From Current Price Level

$404 – Buyers – 1.42:1, -33.93% From Current Price Level

$400 – Buyers – 1.1:1, -34.59% From Current Price Level

$396 – Sellers – 1.18:1, -35.24% From Current Price Level

$392 – Sellers – 1.14:1, -35.89% From Current Price Level

$388 – Buyers – 2.22:1, -36.55% From Current Price Level

$384 – Buyers – 1.88:1, -37.2% From Current Price Level

$380 – Sellers – 1.29:1, -37.86% From Current Price Level

$376 – Sellers – 2.61:1, -38.5% From Current Price Level

$372 – Sellers – 1.95:1, -39.16% From Current Price Level

$368 – Sellers – 1.93:1, -39.82% From Current Price Level

$364 – Sellers – 1.16:1, -40.47% From Current Price Level

$360 – Sellers – 2.6:1, -41.13% From Current Price Level

$356 – Sellers – 2.53:1, -42.78% From Current Price Level

$352 – Buyers – 1.36:1. -42.44% From Current Price Level

$348 – Sellers – 3.7:0*, -43.09% From Current Price Level

$344 – Sellers – 3:0*, -43.74% From Current Price Level

$340 – NULL – 0:0*, -44.4% From Current Price Level

Price Level:Volume Sentiment Analysis For QQQ, The Invesco QQQ Trust ETF

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF that tracks the NASDAQ 100 has also witnessed a similar reduction in volume while sitting near all-time highs.

Without a meaningful increase in volume it seems unlikely that there’s much of a chance of a sustainable climb higher beyond the current ATH’s from here & that there will be retests of their more recent support levels.

Given that these support levels are relatively sparse as noted in this week’s note (link in into section), it is beneficial to understand how market participants have behaved at each price level QQQ’s traded at over the past ~2-3 years, shown below.

$540 – NULL – 0:0*, +0.12% From Current Price Level – All-Time High*

$535 – Buyers – 0.7:0*, -0.81% From Current Price Level – Current Price Level*

$530 – Buyers – 2.2:1, -1.74% From Current Price Level – 10 Day Moving Average*

$525 – Buyers – 2.46:1, -2.66% From Current Price Level

$520 – Buyers – 1.6:1, -3.59% From Current Price Level – 50 Day Moving Average*

$515 – Sellers – 1.09:1, -4.52% From Current Price Level

$510 – Sellers – 3.13:1, -5.45% From Current Price Level

$505 – Sellers – 1.54:1, -6.37% From Current Price Level

$500 – Buyers – 3.22:1, -7.3% From Current Price Level

$496 – Buyers – 2:0*, -8.04% From Current Price Level

$492 – Buyers – 4.13:1, -8.78% From Current Price Level

$488 – Buyers – 1.57:1, -9.52% From Current Price Level

$484 – Buyers – 1.88:1, -10.27% From Current Price Level – 200 Day Moving Average*

$480 – Buyers – 1.24:1, -11.01% From Current Price Level

$476 – Sellers – 1.52:1, -11.75% From Current Price Level

$472 – Buyers – 1.52:1, -12.49% From Current Price Level

$468 – Sellers – 1.23:1, -13.23% From Current Price Level

$464 – Buyers – 1.6:0*, -13.97% From Current Price Level

$460 – Buyers – 1.32:1, -14.72% From Current Price Level

$456 – Sellers – 1.89:1, -15.46% From Current Price Level

$452 – Buyers – 2.5:1, -16.2% From Current Price Level

$448 – Sellers – 1.39:1, -16.94% From Current Price Level

$444 – Sellers – 1.4:1, -17.68% From Current Price Level

$440 – Buyers – 4.22:1, -18.42% From Current Price Level

$436 – Buyers – 1.05:1, -19.16% From Current Price Level

$432 – Sellers – 2:1, -19.91% From Current Price Level

$428 – Buyers – 1.42:1, -20.65% From Current Price Level

$424 – Sellers – 1.06:1, -21.39% From Current Price Level

$420 – Sellers – 2:1, -22.13% From Current Price Level

$416 – Buyers – 4:1, -22.87% From Current Price Level

$412 – Sellers – 2.6:0*, -23.61% From Current Price Level

$408 – Buyers – 4.2:1, -24.36% From Current Price Level

$404 – Buyers – 2.2:1, -25.1% From Current Price Level

$400 – Buyers – 1.81:1, -25.84% From Current Price Level

$396 – Sellers – 1.1:0*, -26.58% From Current Price Level

$392 – Buyers – 1.5:1, -27.32% From Current Price Level

$388 – Buyers – 1:0*, -28.06% From Current Price Level

$384 – Buyers – 1.49:1, -28.81% From Current Price Level

$380 – Buyers – 1.89:1, -29.55% From Current Price Level

$376 – Buyers – 3.86:1. -30.29% From Current Price Level

$372 – Buyers – 1.2:1, -31.03% From Current Price Level

$368 – Sellers – 1.15:1, -31.77% From Current Price Level

$364 – Buyers – 1.66:1, -32.51% From Current Price Level

$360 – Buyers – 1.17:1, -33.26% From Current Price Level

$356 – Sellers – 1.13:1, -34% From Current Price Level

$352 – Buyers – 1.22:1, -34.74% From Current Price Level

$348 – Buyers – 1.14:1, -35.48% From Current Price Level

$344 – Buyers – 1.24:1, -36.22% From Current Price Level

$340 – Sellers – 1.17:1, -36.96% From Current Price Level

$336 – NULL – 0:0*, -37.71% From Current Price Level

$332 – Buyers – 3:1, -38.45% From Current Price Level

$328 – Sellers – 1:0*, -39.19% From Current Price Level

$324 – Even – 1:1, -39.93% From Current Price Level

$320 -Buyers – 4:1, -40.67% From Current Price Level

$316 – Buyers- 2.09:1, -41.41% From Current Price Level

$312 – Sellers – 1.76:1, -42.15% From Current Price Level

$308 – Buyers – 1.82:1, -42.9% From Current Price Level

$304 – Buyers – 7.1:1, -43.64% From Current Price Level

$300 – Sellers – 1.28:1, -44.38% From Current Price Level

$296 – Sellers – 1.63:1, -45.12% From Current Price Level

$292 – Buyers – 3.36:1, -45.86% From Current Price Level

$288 – Buyers – 1.11:1, -46.6% From Current Price Level

$284 – Sellers – 1.33:1, -47.35% From Current Price Level

$280 – Sellers – 1.5:1, -48.09% From Current Price Level

$276 – Buyers – 2.06:1, -48.83% From Current Price Level

$272 – Even – 1:1, -49.57% From Current Price Level

$268 – Sellers – 1.25:1, -50.31% From Current Price Level

$264 – Buyers – 1.18:1, -51.05% From Current Price Level

$260 – Sellers – 2:1, -51.8% From Current Price Level

$256 – NULL – 0:0*, -52.54% From Current Price Level

Price Level:Volume Sentiment Analysis For IWM, The iShares Russell 2000 ETF

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF‘s recent volume declines are similar to SPY & QQQ’s, but not quite as drastic when compared to the year prior.

Still, given that they have been oscillating between support & resistance zones for much of 2025 to date it is worth having an understanding of how each support/resistance level/zone has held up in terms of strength/weakness in order to assess risk moving forward.

The tables below outline IWM’s volume sentiment at each price level that they’ve traded at over the past ~3 years, which will also prove beneficial when they ultimately break out, be it to the upside or downside.

$244 – NULL – 0:0*, +7.39% From Current Price Level – All Time High*

$240 – Buyers – 4.67:1, +5.63% From Current Price Level

$236 – Buyers – 1.54:1, +3.87% From Current Price Level

$232 – Sellers – 1.63:1, +2.11% From Current Price Level

$228 – Buyers – 1.64:1, +0.35% From Current Price Level

$224 – Buyers – 1.22:1, -1.41% From Current Price Level – Current Price Level, 10 & 50 Day Moving Averages***

$220 – Buyers – 1.23:1, -3.17% From Current Price Level

$216 – Buyers – 1.37:1, -4.93% From Current Price Level – 200 Day Moving Average*

$212 – Sellers – 1.29:1, -6.69% From Current Price Level

$208 – Buyers – 2.64:1, -8.45% From Current Price Level

$204 – Buyers – 1.21:1, -10.22% From Current Price Level

$200 – Buyers – 1.54:1, -11.98% From Current Price Level

$198 – Sellers – 1.53:1, -12.86% From Current Price Level

$196 – Buyers – 2.5:1, -13.74% From Current Price Level

$194 – Buyers – 1.15:1, -14.62% From Current Price Level

$192 – Sellers – 1.2:1, -15.5% From Current Price Level

$190 – Sellers – 2.29:1, -16.38% From Current Price Level

$188 – Buyers – 1.64:1, -17.26% From Current Price Level

$186 – Sellers – 1.44:1, -18.14% From Current Price Level

$184 – Buyers – 2.8:1, -19.02% From Current Price Level

$182 – Buyers – 1.67:1, -19.9% From Current Price Level

$180 – Buyers – 1.2:1, -20.78% From Current Price Level

$178 – Sellers – 1.78:1, -21.66% From Current Price Level

$176 – Buyers – 1.12:1, -22.54% From Current Price Level

$174 – Buyers – 2.08:1, -23.42% From Current Price Level

$172 – Buyers – 1.31:1, -24.3% From Current Price Level

$170 – Buyers – 1.39:1, -25.18% From Current Price Level

$168 – Sellers – 2.39:1, 26.06% From Current Price Level

$166 – Sellers – 2.6:1, -26.94% From Current Price Level

$164 – Sellers – 0.4:0*, -27.82% From Current Price Level

$162 – Buyers – 1.18:1, -28.7% From Current Price Level

$160 – Even – 1:1, -29.58% From Current Price Level

$158 – NULL – 0:0*, -30.46% From Current Price Level

Price Level:Volume Sentiment Analysis For DIA, The SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF

DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF has also seen less volume over the month of February while it has been in a consolidation range just below it’s all-time high.

With a flat 10 Day Moving Average just below its price & a flat 50 DMA just -5.28% below it & limited other support levels it’s a good time to check in on the volume sentiment around the prices that it has traded at in recent history.

The tables below outline DIA’s volume sentiment at the price levels it has traded at over the past ~4-5 years.

$452 – NULL – 0:0*, +1.36% From Current Price Level

$448 – Buyers – 0.6:0*, +0.47% From Current Price Level – All-Time High*

$444 – Sellers – 1.29:1, -0.43% From Current Price Level – Current Price Level & 10 Day Moving Average*

$440 – Buyers – 4:1, -1.33% From Current Price Level

$436 – Buyers – 1.6:1, -2.22% From Current Price Level – 50 Day Moving Average*

$432 – Buyers – 2.75:1, -3.12% From Current Price Level

$428 – Buyers – 4.5:1, -4.02% From Current Price Level

$424 – Sellers – 2.25:1, -4.92% From Current Price Level

$420 – Buyers – 1.5:1, -5.81% From Current Price Level

$416 – Sellers – 1.11:1, -6.71% From Current Price Level

$412 – Even – 1:1, -7.61% From Current Price Level – 200 Day Moving Average*

$408 – Buyers – 12:1, -8.5% From Current Price Level

$404 – Buyers – 2.4:1, -9.4% From Current Price Level

$400 – Sellers – 1.17:1, -10.3% From Current Price Level

$396 – Buyers – 9:1, -11.19% From Current Price Level

$392 – Buyers – 2.67:1, -12.09% From Current Price Level

$388 – Buyers – 1.75:1, -12.99% From Current Price Level

$384 – Buyers – 1.28:1, -13.89% From Current Price Level

$380 – Sellers – 1.17:1, -14.78% From Current Price Level

$376 – Buyers – 1.23:1, -15.68% From Current Price Level

$372 – Buyers – 1.55:1, -16.58% From Current Price Level

$368 – Buyers – 4:1, -17.47% From Current Price Level

$364 – Buyers – 1.22:1, -18.37% From Current Price Level

$360 – NULL – 0:0*, -19.27% From Current Price Level

$356 – Buyers – 0.8:0*, -20.17% From Current Price Level

$352 – Sellers – 2.33:1, -21.06% From Current Price Level

$348 – NULL – 0:0*, -21.96% From Current Price Level

$344 – Buyers – 4:1, -22.86% From Current Price Level

$340 – Buyers – 1.03:1, -23.75% From Current Price Level

$336 – Buyers – 1.34:1, -24.65% From Current Price Level

$332 – Buyers – 1.78:1, -25.55% From Current Price Level

$328 – Buyers – 1.15:1, -26.44% From Current Price Level

$324 – Sellers – 1.12:1, -27.34% From Current Price Level

$320 – Buyers – 1.04:1 – 28.24% From Current Price Level

$316 – Sellers – 1.34:1, -29.14% From Current Price Level

$312 – Sellers – 1.26:1, -30.03% From Current Price Level

$308 – Sellers – 2.46:1, -30.96% From Current Price Level

$304 – Buyers – 1.12:1, -31.83% From Current Price Level

$300 – Buyers – 1.58:1, -32.72% From Current Price Level

$296 – Buyers – 1.27:1, -33.62% From Current Price Level

$292 – Sellers – 1.46:1, -34.52% From Current Price Level

$288 – Sellers – 1.58:1, -35.41% From Current Price Level

$284 – Buyers – 1.08:1, -36.31% From Current Price Level

$280 – Buyers – 1.12:1, -37.21% From Current Price Level

$276 – Sellers – 1.36:1, -38.11% From Current Price Level

$272 – Buyers – 1.17:1, -39% From Current Price Level

$268 – Buyers – 2:1, -39.9% From Current Price Level

$264 – NULL – 0:0*, -40.8% From Current Price Level

$260 – Buyers – 3:1, -41.69% From Current Price Level

$256 – Buyers – 0.4:0*, -42.59% From Current Price Level

$252 – Buyers – 0.3:0*, -43.49% From Current Price Level

$248 – Buyers – 0.3:0*, -44.38% From Current Price Level

$244 – NULL – 0:0*, -45.28% From Current Price Level

$240 – NULL – 0:0*, -46.18% From Current Price Level

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM OR DIA AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF gained +1.49% last week, while the VIX closed the week at 14.77, indicating an implied one day move of +/-0.93% & an implied one month move of +/-4.27%.

Their RSI is flat, midway between the neutral 50 mark & overbought 70 mark, sitting currently at 58.97, whiel their MACD remains bullish, but muted on the histogram due to the relative range-bound action of the past two weeks.

Volumes were -36.69% lower than the prior year’s average level (33.804,000 vs. 53,393,785), indicating that there is still a lot of hesitancy among market participants & adds to fears noted in prior weeks’ notes about how the current all-time highs will be difficult to break with staying power unless there is a major uptick in market participation (see here).

This is also important to note, as over the passing two weeks SPY’s average annual prior year’s volume has declined -2.63%, which will continue as we’ve noted over the past year as since 4/19/2024 average volumes have fallen dramatically.

To visualize this, one year ago in 2/18/2024’s Market Review Note the previous year’s average level was 81,771,964 as volumes began to wane in general, meaning this week’s average prior year’s level has fallen -34.7% lower Y-o-Y.

This should be viewed with caution given that we are still near all-time highs, but 1 of every 3 transactions that used to take place among market participants is no longer happening, indicating a high degree of uncertainty & hesitancy.

Between the upcoming wave of earnings this week, the January FOMC minutes coming out on Wednesday & the anticipated NVDA earnings call on 2/26/25 it looks like things will continue to oscillate around the 10 day moving average, much like they have for the past couple of weeks.

Monday opened the week up with a bearish harami candle on very low volume, where the 10 DMA’s support was able to hold up.

Tuesday showed a gap down open to below the 10 DMA’s support, but the resistance level was broken & SPY managed to end the day higher, forming a bullish engulfing pattern on slightly stronger, but still very weak volume, confirming the uneasiness mentioned above.

Wednesday is where all eyes should be when looking at the past week’s chart, as the week’s highest volume session opened on a gap down that flirted with the 50 day moving average’s support to the downside, but was able to power higher, temporarily breaking above the resistance of the 10 day moving average, before closing in line with it.

As the week’s average volume numbers show though, this was still not much to write home about despite the “high turnout” for the week.

Thursday saw slightly lower volume than Wednesday, and opened on a gap up, tested the 10 DMA’s support & then powered higher for the day, but the volume was still rather poor when the context of the annualized average volume is taken into account from above.

Friday the week wound down on a note of caution heading into the shortened holiday week this week, as the second lowest volume of the week resulted in a single day -0.00% decline.

The reason for the concern is that the doji combined with Thursday’s candle look set to create an evening doji star pattern potentially, which would be indicative of near-term pain on the horizon for SPY.

The volume of the past week wasn’t enough to keep SPY’s price above the all-time high when it broke through it temporarily on Friday, and that theme is still on the table.

Even should a rally occur, if the volume isn’t noticeably higher it would be wise to view it with skepticism & expect a high probability of a throwback before mid-March.

Moving into the new week it is going to be interesting to see what sort of upside momentum can be gathered, as SPY is just beneath its all-time high, but needs the volume mentioned above.

The likely average case will be a continuation of the oscillations around the 10 day moving average that we have been watching for the past few weeks & like much of December held, with some gap moves & then consolidation ranges.

Should this be the case & or any downside breakdown at all of the 10 DMA’s support take place there will be reasons for being vigilant in the coming week(s).

The 10 DMA currently is in a price zone that has historically been even, 1:1 between sellers & buyers over the past ~2 years & there is only one other support level separating the 10 & 50 DMAs.

When you consider that the 50 DMA is only -0.98% below the 10 DMA there’s limited room for a decline & waning enthusiasm for dip buyers to step in & make hold up the limited support levels.

It should also be noted that ~2% below the 50 DMA is the following support level, before just over 1% lower a Seller zone is entered, where Sellers have shown up 2.1:1.

While the next price zone below that one is Buyer dominated, but only at a rate of 1.08:1 & the only current support level is a hair above the lowest level of that price zone (see table below).

It’s become very evident that there’s a great need for vigilance in the coming week(s).

SPY has support at the $607.03 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.8:0*), $604.38 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Even, 1:1), $602.48 (Volume Sentiment: Even, 1:1) & $598.48/share (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.5:1) price levels, with resistance at the $610.78/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF advanced +2.91% last week, as the tech-heavy index managed to fare the best of the major four index ETFs.

Their RSI is still advancing towards the overbought level & sits at 61.93 after the past three sessions, while their MACD is bullish, but its histogram has been muted since crossing over eight sessions ago.

Volumes were -36.76% lower than the prior year’s average levels (22,352,000 vs. 35,344,781), which is especially unnerving when you consider that the current past year’s average volume is -31.44% lower than than one year ago’s.

It’s also troubling to see volume this muted when 80% of the past week was advancing sessions for QQQ, indicating that there is a real lack of enthusiasm & folks are beginning to get slightly more worried.

Monday kicked QQQ’s week off on a bullish note, where the second weakest volume of the week’s session resulted in a bullish harami pattern, setting the stage for more gains in the near-term.

But not before Tuesday opened on a gap down, but quickly recovered to test the $530/share mark temporarily & managed to close higher, despite it being the weakest volume session of the week.

Things got a bit stranger come Wednesday, where on another gap down open QQQ opened below the 10 Day Moving Average’s support & tested the support of the 50 DMA, before rallying higher to close above the 10 DMA on the week’s second highest volume level, setting up the following two days of advancing sessions.

The fact that the 50 DMA was tested on the open after prices remaining above it for over a week is cause for caution & heightened awareness heading into this week.

Thursday’s gap up open also is cause for caution, just one day after the 50 DMA test, as despite having the strongest volume of the week, given how weak the week’s volume was is not convincing of any switches being flipped to the bullish side of things.

Friday also raises some eyebrows, as despite a new 52-week high being reached intraday, volumes were not strong enough to suggest a serious breakout to the upside particularly when compared to the two prior days’ levels.

Tuesday will play an important part in determining whether the three day rally lives on or if we see QQQ go back to oscillating around the 10 day moving average for the next week until NVDA earnings on 2/26/2025.

Like SPY, any meaningful upside movement in the near-term that will be sustainable will require an uptick in volume, especially given how robust the $538-539 window has held up among market participants.

Throwbacks should be watched for in the event of a breakout that does not occur on strong volumes.

In terms of should we see a consolidation range form from the run up of the second half of the week the 10 day moving average will become a key area to watch.

The reason being that once QQQ hits $534.99/share it is in a Seller dominated zone until it reaches $530/share, which is the zone currently housing the two support levels between the price & the 10 DMA.

Things will get tricky from there as then the next support level is the 50 day moving average, which also falls in a Seller zone that is on top of two additional Seller zones historically (see table below) with very sparse support along the way.

With few support levels to gain footing on & so much historic selling activity for the next -5.23% below Friday’s closing price it will make for good reason to watch those moving averages closely.

QQQ has support at the $533.82 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 0.6:0*), $531.24 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 0.6:0*), $528.15 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.86:1) & $522.34/share (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.18:1) price levels, with resistance at the $538.28/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.7:0*) price levels.

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF declined -0.01% last week, as the small-cap index was the least favored of the four major index ETFs.

Their RSI is flat, just below the neutral 50 mark & sits currently at 49.47, while their MACD is bearish, but also flat after last week’s performance.

Volumes were -35.77% lower than the previous year’s average (18,670,000 vs. 29,066,135), showing that there is very much a “wait & see” attitude towards the small cap names, as last week IWM basically just tread water.

Compared to last year’s average volume, IWM’s current level is only -15.93% lower, which shows much greater participation than SPY or QQQ as noted above (2/18/2024’s note here).

Monday IWM started off on a troublesome foot, as the day formed a bearish harami pattern with Friday’s candle.

The session opened higher, but proceeded to break down below the 10 day moving average’s support before retracing back to close in-line with the 10 day moving average.

The next day opened on a gap down on stronger volume, but was able to close above its opening price.

Wednesday opened on yet another gap down, tested below the $222.50/share price mark but was able to run higher & closed above its open again, with the upper shadow indicating that there was some slight upside appetite, which was also confirmed by the week’s highest volume.

Thursday saw yet another gap open, but this time to the upside, which led to a retracement back to near Wednesday’s close, but ultimately IWM powered higher to close just beneath the 10 DMA’s resistance on the week’s second strongest volume.

Friday opened on a gap up in-line with the 50 day moving average’s resistance, broke out above it temporarily, before declining to close beneath the 10 DMA’s support.

IWM has a lot more local support levels than SPY or QQQ above did, which will help them in the near-term unless there is a broader market selloff that impacts all of the major indexes.

This is also important as their long-term trend line (200 DMA) is currently -4% below Friday’s closing price, and a retest of the long-term trend may not go as well as the one that occurred in early January.

In the coming week it appears like IWM will continue to oscillate around the 10 & 50 DMAs & move more in-line with DIA than SPY & QQQ as market participants digest a lot of uncertainty.

The table below can be used to assess the strength & weakness of the support/resistance levels that IWM encounters.

IWM has support at the $225.73 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 3:1), $225.20 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 3:1), $223.51 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.92:1) & $221.79/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.92:1) price levels, with resistance at the $226.33 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 3:1), $226.50 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 3:1), $226.99 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 3:1) & $227.17/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 3:1) price levels.

DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF crept up +0.6% last week, as the blue chip index was unable to find any traction to advance on.

Their RSI is trending back down towards the neutral 50 mark & sits currently at 56.43, while their MACD is bearish but has been flattening out after last week’s consolidation.

Volumes were -34.28% below their previous year’s average level (2,142,000 vs. 3,259,442), which is troubling when you consider how two of the three advancing sessions of the week were on extremely light volume compared to the two declining sessions.

DIA has managed to have the most stable Y-o-Y prior year’s average volume level, with the current one being just -6% below a year ago’s as market participants have clearly favored the security of blue chip stocks.

Much like IWM, DIA opened the week forming a bearish harami pattern with Friday’s hanging man candle, setting the stage for a week of uncertainty based on the unusually low volume.

Tuesday opened lower but was able to rally on another light volume session for form a bullish engulfing pattern that closed in-line with the 10 dya moving average.

Wednesday opened on a gap lower & tested lower before closing above its open, but as a spinning top candle indicating that there was still a great deal of uncertainty in the air.

Thursday the jumpiness continued with a gap up open that was in-line with the 10 DMA’s resistance, before testing lower to Wednesday’s close & then powering higher to close above the 10 DMA.

Friday market participants did not want to be carrying risk into the weekend & it resulted in a -0.33% declining day that closed just above the support of the 10 day moving average.

While DIA & IWM have moved in a more similar manner than SPY & QQQ, IWM has spent more time in consolidation ranges than DIA, leading to DIA having less support levels nearby.

This means it will be important to keep an eye on the volume sentiment at each of their price levels in the coming week(s), particularly as they are currently in a Seller dominated zone over the past 3-4 years at a rate of 1.25:1, which could aid in their price slipping.

Else, without much of an increase in volume it will be difficult to see any meaningful new all-time highs on the horizon that have staying power.

Expect prices to oscillate back & forth around the 10 DMA & between it & the 50 DMA in the coming week, barring any news that leads to a sell off, as DIA has shown resilience among the major indexes with market participants still wanting to buy blue chip names, just at muted levels of participation.

DIA has support at the $445.65 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.25:1), $443.51 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.67:1), $437.42 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.6:1) & $433.51/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.67:1) price levels, with resistance at the $450.08 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.4:0*) & $450.36/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.4:0*) price levels.

The Week Ahead

Monday the market will be closed for President’s Day, but Fed President Harker speaks at 9:30, Feg Governor Bowman speaks at 10:20 am & Fed Governor Waller speaks at 6 pm & there will be no earnings reports.

The Empire State Manufacturing Survey data is released Tuesday at 8:30 am, followed by Home Builder Confidence Index data at 10 am, Fed President Daly speaking at 10:20 am & Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Barr speaking at 1 pm.

Tuesday morning’s before the bell earnings reports include Allegion, Blackbaud, Chemours, Donnelly Financial, Expeditors International of Washington, Fluor, Franklin Electric, GeneDx, Genuine Parts, Hillman Solutions, Medtronic, NeoGenomics, Sapiens International, TRI Pointe Homes, Valmont Industries, Viking Holdings, Visteon, Vulcan Materials, Watsco & Waystar Holdings, with Andersons, Arista Networks, Bumble, Cadence Design, Celanese, Community Health, Comstock, CoStar Group, CVR Energy, Devon Energy, Element Solutions, EQT Corp., Flowserve, Halozyme Therapeutics, Ingevity, Innospec, International Flavors & Fragrances, James Hardie, La-Z-Boy, Magnolia Oil & Gas, Matador Resources, Occidental Petroleum, Penumbra, Perdoceo Education, RB Global, Rush Enterprises, Select Water Solutions, Shift4 Payments, Sonoco Products, Ternium, Toll Brothers & Unisys due to report after the closing bell.

Wednesday morning brings us Housing Starts & Building Permits data at 8:30 am, followed by the January FOMC Minutes at 2pm & Fed Vice Chair Jefferson speaking at 5 pm.

Amicus Therapeutics, Analog Devices, Appian, Bausch + Lomb, Centuri Holdings, Charles River, Cinemark, Clarivate, Clean Harbors, Enlight Renewable Energy, Enpro, Etsy, First Majestic Silver, Fiverr, Garmin, Gentherm, Gibraltar Industries, Gildan Activewear, Global-E Online, Healthcare Realty, Hudbay Minerals, Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Ionis Pharmaceuticals, KinderCare Learning, Krystal Biotech, Loar Holdings, Louisiana-Pacific, Materion, OGE Energy, OneSpaWorld, Parsons, PROG Holdings, ProPetro, StandardAero, Stepan, Travel + Leisure, Trimble, Wingstop, Wix.com & Wolverine World Wide report earnings before Wednesday’s opening bell, followed by Klaviyo, ACV Auctions, Alamos Gold, American States Water, American Water Works, Amplitude, ANSYS, B2Gold, Bausch Health, BioMarin Pharmaceutical, Carvana, CF Industries, Cheesecake Factory, Churchill Downs, Clearwater Analytics, Coeur Mining, Enovix, Equinox Gold, Exact Sciences, Genco Shipping & Trading, Grand Canyon Education, Herbalife Nutrition, Host Hotels, ICON plc, IMAX, Innovative Industrial Properties, Innovex International, Jackson Financial, Kaiser Aluminum, Manulife Financial, McGrath RentCorp, Mister Car Wash, NerdWallet, Nordson, Northern Oil & Gas, Oceaneering International, ONE Gas, OPENLANE, Orion Engineered Carbons, Pan Am Silver, Park Hotels & Resorts, PRA Group, Remitly Global, Sabra Health Care REIT, SM Energy, SolarEdge Technologies, Sturm Ruger, Tanger Factory, Toast, Trupanion, Vimeo, Vital Energy & Wheaton Precious Metals.

Initial Jobless Claims & Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey data are all released Thursday at 8:30 am, followed by Fed President Goolsbee speaking at 9:35 am, U.S. Leading Economic Indicators data at 10 am, Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Barr speaking at 2:30 pm & Fed Governor Kugler speaking at 5 pm.

Thursday morning kicks off with earnings from Walmart, Alight, Americold Realty Trust, Ardelyx, Autohome, Bandwidth, BigCommerce, Bilibili, Birkenstock Holding, Builders FirstSource, Cameco, Cenovus Energy, CenterPoint, Cheniere Energy, Choice Hotels, Constellium, Core Natural Resources, Cushman & Wakefield, Dana, DigitalBridge, Dun & Bradstreet, Endava, Enviri Corp, EPAM Systems, ESAB, Freshpet, FTI Consulting, Hasbro, IdaCorp, Insmed, Integer Holdings, Lamar Advertising, Laureate Education, Leonardo DRS, LKQ, Nutrien, Pediatrix Medical Group, Pool, Primo Brands Corp, Quanta Services, Reliance, Repligen, Sabre, Shake Shack, Southern, SpringWorks Therapeutics, Teck Resources, Tempur Sealy International, Trinity Industries, TripAdvisor, Unity Software, Upbound Group, Utz Brands & Wayfair before the opening bell, with Booking Holdings, ACCO Brands, Akamai Technologies, Alarm.com, Alliant Energy, American Homes 4 Rent, AMN Healthcare, Barings BDC, BJ Restaurants, Block, Boise Cascade, CarGurus, Con Edison, Dropbox, Employers Holdings, Evolent Health, eXp World Holdings, Fidelity National, Five9, Floor & Decor, Frontier Communications, Gaming and Leisure Properties, Glaukos, Globus Medical, Grid Dynamics, Guardant Health, indie Semiconductor, Insulet, iRhythm, Live Nation, MP Materials, Newmont Corp, NV5 Global, Rackspace Technology, Resideo, RingCentral, Rivian Automotive, Ryan Specialty Group, Ryman Hospitality, Select Medical, Sprouts Farmers Market, Texas Roadhouse, Universal Display, VICI Properties, Vicor & World Kinect all due to report after the session’s close.

Friday the week winds down with S&P Flash U.S. Services PMI & S&P Flash U.S. Manufacturing PMI data at 9:35 am, followed by Consumer Sentiment (final) & Existing Home Sales at 10 am, and Fed Vice Chairman Jefferson & Fed President Daly speaking at 11:30 am.

Atmus Filtration Technologies, Balchem, Brady, Oil States, Sunstone Hotel, Telephone & Data, TXNM Energy & Uniti Group are all due to report earnings on Friday morning before the session’s open.

See you back here next week!

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM OR DIA AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF fell -1.01% last week, while the VIX closed at 16.43, indicating an implied one day move of +/-1.04% & an implied one month move of +/-4.75%.

Their RSI is trending down towards the neutral level & sits currently at 53.91, while their MACD has curled over bearishly & looks set for a bearish crossover by the end of Tuesday’s session.

Volumes were -5.93% lower than the previous year’s average level (51,584,000 vs. 54,836,494), which is weak participation, but validates that there is indeed some risk aversion settling into stock prices in the near-term.

Monday, the week kicked off on a gap down that opened just below the resistance of the 50 day moving average, but throughout the day market participants rushed back in & managed to push SPY above both the 50 & 10 day moving averages.

Seller volume was the second highest it’s been so far in 2025, indicating that there was a severe urgency to sell SPY & its component stocks, but that there was also quite a few folks hopping back into the pool as well, given that the day ended higher than it opened.

Tuesday showed a glimmer of strength, where on the third highest volume of the week SPY managed to grind higher, but not without testing back below the 10 DMA’s support briefly.

Wednesday flashed the warning signals again, when on the week’s lightest volume SPY opened lower, tested again below the 10 DMA, only to settle in line with it’s support & form a bearish harami pattern with Tuesday’s candle.

Thursday managed to open higher, but again tested below the 10 DMA’s support before powering higher to close as an up day on light volume, indicating that there was not much strength of sentiment behind the move.

The spinning top candle also added a greater sense of uncertainty to SPY’s near-term performance, but the 10 day moving average continued to be straddled & a key area to watch.

Friday saw the brakes get slammed, as SPY opened higher, tested the $610/share limit, before being sent down & breaking through the support of the 10 DMA to close below it on a -0.53% session.

Friday’s volume was the second highest of the week, and third highest of the year, indicating that there was unease among market participants.

It should also be noted that Friday’s candle formed a bearish engulfing pattern with Thursday’s, another bit of negative near-term sentiment.

The coming week holds a plethora of earnings calls, with some of the most notable coming from Amazon, Alphabet & Disney.

Prices look ready to consolidate between the 10 & 50 DMAs until given a direction to break out in, which will likely come from the earnings reports of the week, else from any of the number of Fed speakers that are scheduled for the coming days.

As noted in prior weeks’ notes, any move to the upside will require a great deal of advancing volume to have sticking power, particularly as SPY is so close to all-time highs.

To the downside, if the 50 day moving average’s support doesn’t hold up, SPY may have some trouble as there are no support levels until $584.15/share.

The reason that this is troublesome is that while the price zones between there & Friday’s close are historically dominated by Buyers, the $580-584.99/share price zone is Seller dominated over the past 2-3 years, at a rate of 2.1:1.

If we see that break down there is not much strength of historic buyers until the $580-584.99/share price level, which contains two support levels.

Volume will be a key factor to watch in any market movement, as at these price levels it will be important to have confirmation by active market participation, as even in the event of a consolidation range continuing all week it will give clues into which way market participants are leaning, be it more risk-on or risk-off.

The chart below gives insight into volume sentiment at the price levels SPY has traded at over the past 2-3 years.

SPY has support at the $596.43 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.5:1), $584.15 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2.1:1), $580.91 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2.1:1) & $575.35/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.08:1) price levels, with resistance at the $602.48 (Volume Sentiment: Even, 1:1), $603.73 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Even, 1:1), $607.03 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.8:0*) & $610.78/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF declined -1.39% last week, as investors were most weary of the tech-heavy index out of the four major ETFs.

Their RSI has flattened out just above the neutral 50 mark at 52.07, while their MACD is still bullish but has also flattened out & their histogram indicates that there will be a bearish crossover by Tuesday.

Volumes were +3.59% higher than the previous year’s average (37,378,000 vs. 36,082,271), which is a slight cause for concern given that the week ultimately resulted in declines & the top two highest volume sessions were declining.

Much like SPY, QQQ opened the week on a gap down on the highest volume of the week, setting the stage for near-term weakness to set in.

QQQ however, opened below the 10 & 50 day moving averages, temporarily broke above them, before closing below both, but higher than the day opened, indicating that market participants were willing to accept some risk as the session went on.

Tuesday opened higher, retraced down almost to Monday’s opening level, before tearing above the 50 day moving average’s resistance & the 10 DMA’s resistance & managed to settle for the day atop both, with a small upper shadow indicating that there was a slight bit of more upside appetite.

On Wednesday reality set in to remind QQQ investors that it’s not out of the woods just yet, as the session opened slightly higher, before tumbling below the 10 day moving average’s support, going so far down as to test the 50 day moving average, before regaining some of its losses to close below the 10 DMA.

Volume on Wednesday was the lightest of the week, which is a bit alarming when you consider the wide range of prices that were touched intraday, as well as the fact that there were multiple tests & retests of the 10 & 50 DMAs.

Thursday the risk off sentiment continued, as despite gapping higher on the open, the day resulted in a spinning top candle that closed lower than its open, indicating that there was a bit on uneasiness in the market for QQQ, which when coupled with the week’s second lowest volume becomes even more apparent.

Friday, much like SPY, QQQ formed a bearish engulfing pattern after opening on a gap up, temporarily testing higher, before dropping to below the support of the 10 day moving average & closing below it.

Volume was second highest for the week on Friday, which when paired with Monday’s highest volume of the week session paints a bit of a bleak picture for QQQ in the near-term.

Much like SPY, this week expect to see QQQ oscillate between the support of the 50 day moving average & the resistance of the 10 day moving average until a catalyst pushes it to break out either up or down.

For any staying power to an upside move there will need to be volume as strong as this past week, if not stronger, especially given that their price is currently in a Seller dominated zone historically.

This will require a bit of an extra push to continue prices moving higher from, as the next resistance levels after the 10 DMA are all in Seller dominated zone as well, so there will need to be a great deal of added enthusiasm for QQQ to continue higher.

To the downside, there’s Seller pressure for the next -2.35% before the Buyers have historically stepped in.

However, if the $508.47/share level breaks down there will be additional losses given that the next support level doesn’t occur until $499.70.

QQQ has support at the $517.82 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.33:1), $514.75 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.38:1), $510.15 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.38:1) & $508.47/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.6:1) price levels, with resistance at the $524.25 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.18:1), $531.24 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 0.6:0*), $533.82 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 0.6:0*) & $538.28/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.7:0*) price levels.

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF dropped -0.97% last week, as even small cap names were shunned by market participants.

Their RSI is about to cross down through the neutral 50 level & currently is at 50.62, while their MACD has curled over bearishly & should cross through the signal line by mid-week.

Volumes were -16.66% lower than the prior year’s average (25,104,000 vs. 30,121,000), as there was muted participation among investors for IWM.

Monday began on a cautious note, as the day tested the 10 day moving average’s support, as well as the 50 day moving average’s resistance, but ultimately settled as a spinning top candle on the second highest volume of the week after opening on a gap down.

Tuesday opened higher, tested higher, then temporarily went below the support of the 10 day moving average, in a session that closed as a doji on the week’s lowest level of volume.

This signaled that there was bearish sentiment on the horizon, but prices managed to close above the 10 DMA.

Wednesday this theme of weakness carried on, as on lackluster volume the day resulted in a high wave spinning top candle that opened in line with the 10 DMA, but closed below it, indicating that there was a lot of confusion and speculation about where to value IWM, but at the end of the day the result was resoundingly lower.

Thursday opened on a gap higher, but uneasiness was abound as the high wave candle broke above the 50 DMA’s resistance & below the 20 DMA’s support, only to close in-line with its opening price.

Friday opened on a gap higher & went above the 50 DMA again & also briefly crossed $230/share again, but ultimately was unable to find any footing & on the week’s strongest volume IWM declined through the 10 DMA’s support to close below it.

For this coming week expect to see IWM continue to straddle the 10 day moving average until there is a catalyst that pushes it higher or lower.

Much like SPY & QQQ, any upside movement will require a large increase in volume, as IWM is currently in a Seller dominated zone & will enter another in the event that they advance +2.44%.

A unique trouble for IWM though is that in this current price zone sit the next four resistance levels & the $227.17-18 mark will require a large push to break through & stay above.

To the downside there is some Buyer pressure once the $23.99 share price is hit, but if IWM loses -4.63% from Friday’s close it will find itself in another Seller zone & the strength of the Buyers on the two zones in between will become more diluted (unless they are completely gapped over, which will present a unique set of challenges).

Also, the current price is 5.2% above the long-term trend (200 DMA) & that will become something to begin thinking about in the next two weeks, especially if there is no catalyst higher, as the 200 DMA is currently in a Seller dominated zone 1.29:1, which increases the risk of the long-term trend breaking down for IWM.

IWM has support at the $225.73 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 3:1), $225.20 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 3:1), $223.51 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.92:1) & $221.04/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.92:1) price levels, with resistance at the $226.50 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 3:1), $227.17 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 3:1), $227.18 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 3:1) & $227.61/share (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 3:1) price levels.

DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF advanced +0.29% last week, as the blue chip index was the only major index that market participants viewed favorably.

Their RSI is trending back towards neutral after flirting with the overbought 70 level & sits currently at 61.43, while their MACD has curled over bearishly & their histogram has begun to wane, indicating that there is likely going to be a bearish crossover by mid-week.

Volumes were -16.99% lower than the prior year’s average level (2,738,000 vs. 3,298,566), which makes the small weekly gain rather insignificant.

Most of DIA’s gains for the week can be attributed to Monday’s performance, which resulted in a bullish engulfing candle that set up the rest of the week for a bit of floundering & consolidation.

Monday had the highest volume of the week, which also speaks to the true strength of the move, as there was not much eagerness for market participants to ride the wave higher during the rest of the week.

Tuesday opened on a gap higher, but the enthusiasm waned quickly as the week’s lightest volume session pushed higher, but was rejected at the $450/share price level & closed at $448.41.

Wednesday the cracks began to show in DIA, as while the day’s candle did not result in a bearish engulfing pattern, it was close to one & ultimately the day ended as a declining spinning top on low volume, showing a severe level of confusion lack of interest among market participants.

Thursday resulted in a bullish engulfing candle, but again the volume came in very underwhelming & yet again the $450/share price level held up, making a run at the all-time high seem less & less likely.

Friday wiped any potential enthusiasm away though, with a gap up open that led to a -0.76% declining session on the week’s second highest volume, as the all-time high held up & the day’s candle created a bearish engulfing pattern.

This week all eyes will be on whether or not the all-time high holds up or if the $450/share gets rejected once & for all & a double top forms.

Should this occur, keep in mind that DIA’s current price & first level of support (the 10 DMA) are both in a Seller dominated zone.

While Buyers have historically stepped in for the next -3.9% from Friday’s closing price, if the 50 day moving average breaks down the $428.24/share price level will become the next-most important place to watch, as it leads into another historically Seller dominated zone (3:1).

Without a major surge in volume & should there be no major splashes due to earnings, expect prices to consolidate between the 10 & 50 day moving averages until there is a reason for a breakout.

Once there is a breakout, ensure that there is proper volume supporting the move, given that DIA is just off of all-time highs.

DIA has support at the $444.25 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.25:1), $443.15 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.67:1), $436.53 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.6:1) & $433.51/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.67:1) price levels, with resistance at the $450.08/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.4:0*) price levels.

The Week Ahead

Monday the week begins with S&P Final U.S. Manufacturing PMI data at 9:45 am, followed by Construction Spending & ISM Manufacturing data at 10 am & Fed President Bostic speaking at 12 pm.

IDEXX Laboratories, Napco Security Systems, Saia, Twist Bioscience & Tyson Foods all report earnings before Monday’s opening bell, with AECOM, BellRing Brands, Cabot, Capital Southwest, Clorox, Equity Residential, Fabrinet, Healthpeak Properties, J&J Snack Foods, Kforce, Kyndryl, MGIC Investment, NJ Resources, NXP Semiconductors, Palantir Technologies, Rambus, Tempus AI & Woodward scheduled to report after the session’s close.

Job Openings & Factory Orders data are released Tuesday at 10 am, followed by Fed President Bostic speaking on Housing at 11 am, Fed President Daly speaking at 2 pm & Fed Vice Chairman Jefferson speaking at 7:30 pm.

Tuesday morning’s earnings calls include Amcor, Ametek, Aramark, Archer-Daniels-Midland, ATI Inc., Atkore International, Ball Corp, Berry Global, Centene, CNH Industrial, Colliers International Group, Cummins, Energizer, Enterprise Products, Estee Lauder, Ferrari, Fox Corp, Gartner, Graphic Packaging, Hamilton Lane, Hubbell, Ingredion, InMode, Jacobs Solutions, Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals, KKR, Lancaster Colony, Marathon Petroleum, Merck, MPLX LP, MSG Sports, Oaktree Specialty Lending Corp, PayPal Holdings, Pentair, PepsiCo, Pfizer, PJT Partners, Silicon Labs, Spotify Technology, Transdigm Group, UBS, UL Solutions, WEC Energy Group, Willis Towers Watson & Xylem, before Alphabet, 8×8, A10 Networks, Advanced Micro Devices, Allegiant Travel, Amdocs, American Financial Group, Amgen, Artisan Partners Asset Management, Aspen Technology, Atmos Energy, AZEK, Carlisle Companies, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Cirrus Logic, Columbia Sportswear, Douglas Emmett, DXC Technology, Electronic Arts, Enova International, Enphase Energy, Essex Property, Fair Isaac, FMC Corp, Golub Capital, H & R Block, Hanover Insurance, ICHOR Corp, IDEX Corp, Intapp, Jack Henry, Juniper Networks, Kulicke & Soffa, Lumen Technologies, Match Group, Mattel, Mercury, Modine Manufacturing, Mondelez International, Mueller Water, NOV Inc., O-I Glass, Omnicom, Oscar Health, Prudential, Rush Enterprises, Simon Properties, Skyline Champion, Snap, Unum Group, Varonis Systems, Veralto, Voya Financial, Western Union & Zurn Elkay Water Solutions report following the session’s closing bell.

Wednesday morning features ADP Employment data at 8:15, followed by U.S. Trade Deficit data at 8:30 am, Fed President Barkin speaking at 9 am, S&P Final U.S. Services PMI data at 9:45 am, ISM Services data at 10 am, Fed President Goolsbee speaking at 1 pm, Fed Governor Bowman speaking at 3 pm & Fed Vice Chairman Jefferson speaking at 7:30 pm.

Walt Disney, Ares Capital, Ares Management, ATS Corp, Azenta, Bio-Techne, Boston Scientific, Bunge, Capri Holdings, CDW, Cencora, Centuri Holdings, Criteo, Dayforce, Emerson, Evercore, FirstService, Fiserv, Gildan Activewear, GlaxoSmithKline, Griffon, Harley-Davidson, Illinois Tool Works, Johnson Controls, Kennametal, KinderCare Learning Companies, New York Times, Old Dominion Freight Line, Performance Food Group, Reynolds Consumer Products, RXO, South Bow, Spire, StandardAero, Stanley Black & Decker, T. Rowe Price, Timken, Uber Technologies, Vishay & Yum! Brands are all due to report earnings before Wednesday’s opening bell, followed by Aflac, Align Technology, Allstate, Alpha and Omega Semiconductor, Amentum Holdings, Arm Holdings, ASGN Inc, AvalonBay, Black Hills, BrightView, Central Garden, Cognizant Technology Solutions, Coherent, CONMED, Corpay, Corteva, Crown Holdings, CSG Systems, Curbline Properties, Deluxe, DHT, Digi International, Digital Turbine, Enersys, Envista, Equitable Holdings, First Industrial Realty, Ford Motor, FormFactor, Franco-Nevada, Globe Life, Hillenbrand, Hologic, Horace Mann, Impinj, Kemper, LandBridge, LiveRamp, Manulife Financial, McKesson, MetLife, MicroStrategy, Mid-America Apartment Communities, Moelis, Molina Healthcare, Murphy USA, Netgear, News Corp., O’Reilly Automotive, Omega Healthcare Investors, Paycor, PTC, Qiagen, Radian Group, Rayonier, Regal Rexnord, Rexford Industrial Realty, Safehold, Silicon Motion, SiTime, Skyworks Solutions, Steris, Stewart Information Services, Suncor Energy, Symbotic, Tenable Holdings, TTM Technologies, UDR, UGI Corp, Viking Therapeutics & WEX after the session’s close.

Initial Jobless Claims & U.S. Productivity data are released Thursday at 8:30 am, followed by Fed Governor Waller speaking at 2:30 pm & Fed President Logan speaking at 5:10 pm.

Thursday morning’s earnings calls include Advanced Drainage Systems, AGCO Corp, Air Products and Chemicals, AllianceBernstein, Aptiv, ArcelorMittal, Arrow Electronics, AstraZeneca, BCE Inc, Becton Dickinson, Belden, BorgWarner, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Canada Goose, Clearfield, CMS Energy, ConocoPhillips, Eli Lilly, Embecta, Entegris, Equifax, Equinox Gold, First Majestic Silver, Gates Industrial, Haemonetics, Hershey Foods, Hilton, Honeywell, Huntington Ingalls, Insight Enterprises, InterDigital, IQVIA, ITT, Kellanova, Kelly Services, Kenvue, Labcorp Holdings, Lightspeed, Lincoln National, Linde, MACOM Technology Solutions, MarketAxess, MasterCraft, MDU Resources, nVent Electric, Omnicell, Open Text, Patrick Industries, Peabody Energy, Peloton Interactive, Prestige Consumer, Ralph Lauren, Roblox, Snap-On, Spectrum Brands, Tapestry, Thomson Reuters, Tradeweb Markets, Under Armour, Valvoline, Warner Music Group, Xcel Energy, XPO, Yum China & Zimmer Biomet, beforeAffirm Holdings, Amazon, AptarGroup, Bill.com, Boyd Gaming, Camden Property, Cloudflare, CNO Financial, COPT Defense Properties, Cousins Properties, Doximity, e.l.f. Beauty, EastGroup, Encompass Health, ESCO Technologies, Expedia Group, Exponent, Fortinet, Fortune Brands Innovations, Genpact, GoPro, Hub Group, Illumina, Innovex International, Leslie’s, Lions Gate Entertainment, Lumentum, Mettler-Toledo, Microchip, Minerals Technologies, Mohawk Industries, Monolithic Power, NMI Holdings, Onto Innovation, Paylocity, Phillips Edison, Pinterest, Post, Powell Industries, Principal Financial Group, PROS Holdings, Qualys, QuinStreet, Regency Centers, Reinsurance Group of America, Skechers USA, Sonos, SS&C Technologies, StepStone Group, Synaptics, Take-Two Interactive Software, Varex Imaging, VeriSign, Victory Capital, WEBTOON Entertainment, Werner Enterprises, Wheaton Precious Metals report following the session’s close.

Friday the week winds down with U.S. Employment Report, U.S. Unemployment Rate, U.S. Hourly Wages & Hourly Wages Year-over-Year data at 8:30 am, followed by Fed Governor Bowman speaking at 9:25 am, Wholesale Inventories data & Consumer Sentiment (prelim) at 10 am & Consumer Credit data at 3 pm.

Avantor, Cboe Global Markets, Construction Partners, Flowers Foods, Fortive, Frontier Group Holdings, Green Plains, Kimco Realty, Newell Brands, Perella Weinberg Partners, Plains All American, Protolabs & Telus all report earnings before Friday morning’s opening bell.

See you back here next week!

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM OR DIA AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF gained +2.94% last week, while the VIX closed at 15.97, indicating an implied one day move of +/-1.01% & an implied one month move of +/-4.62%, following the first full week of trading of the past four weeks.

Their RSI crossed the neutral level of 50 after Wednesday’s gap up session, while their MACD crossed over bullishly on Friday.

Volumes were -9.36% lower than the prior year’s average (50,924,000 vs. 54,180,870), which casts the gains of the week in a suspicious light, given that the highest volume advancing days came on sessions with gap ups & leave windows to be filled.

Monday saw the temporary recovery from the prior week kick off, but note the low volume of the day, indicating that there was not enough conviction behind the move to view it as a true, robust reversal.

Tuesday continued this theme, as the session opened on a gap up, but was unable to test much higher & SPY sunk to the middle of Monday’s range, before rallying back to close above Monday’s close, but below it’s own opening price.

This intraday volatility paired with the low volume attached with it don’t paint a picture of a healthy bull run & signal that there was a bit of intraday profit taking with a surge higher heading into the end of the session.

Wednesday opened on a gap up above the 10 day moving average’s resistance, saw a small amount of downside test before continuing higher to temporarily break above the 50 day moving average’s resistance & settling in-line with the 50 DMA.

On Thursday, SPY opened on another gap up that was above the 50 day moving average’s resistance, but that profits were quickly taken from, forcing the day lower & closing below the 50 DMA.

A couple of things of note on Thursday: firstly, the lower shadow indicates that there was some more appetite lower for SPY, and the other is that all of this price action took place on the week’s lowest volume.

Friday the week left off on a rather ominous note & cast uncertainty on SPY’s future week(s).

On another gap up, SPY managed to briefly break out above the $598.16/share resistance level, but it did not sustain & the day ended closing as a doji candle on the week’s highest volume.

This indicates that there was a bit of profit taking, as well as some tug of war between the bulls & bears.

Looking ahead to the upcoming shortened week due to MLK Jr. Day, it’s worth taking a look at the difference between SPY & each of the following index ETF’s week-over-week (last week’s note is here), as this week again will be determined largely by volume.

The $598.16/share resistance level will play an important role in the week ahead, as prices will need to break through it to continue SPY’s climb higher.

This falls in a price zone that has typically been dominated by Buyers at a rate of 2.5:1 over the past ~2 years, but there has not been much declining pressure here & we may see sellers step up to block this move.

It will also be important to keep an eye on the 10 day moving average as it moves towards the 50 DMA to see if a crossover inspires any more upwards movement in SPY, as a ~2% advance has it brushing up against its all-time high.

Again, this will require an uptick in volume in order to be sustainable, especially given the number of windows that were created by gaps last week that will eventually need to be filled.

If the support of the 10 & 50 DMAs does break down & prices reach the $589.99/share level we may see further declines down to the $579.99/share level, as the Buyers who dominate the $585-589.99 price zone have seen limited pressure from Sellers & the %580-584.99/share price zone is historically dominated by Sellers 2.1:1.

There’s not a ton of economic data this week, but there are a lot of earnings announcements which are more likely to drive SPY’s direction this week.

If neither of the two situations above occur, it will most likely be a week of SPY straddling & oscillating around the 10 DMA while awaiting the next large clue as to which way market participants are feeling.

SPY has support at the $593.95 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 4.2:1), $589.15 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.4:0*), $584.15 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2.1:1) & $581.90/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2.1:1) price levels, with resistance at the $598.16 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.5:1), $602.48 (Volume Sentiment: Even, 1:1) & $607.03/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.8:0*) price levels.

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF added +2.87% last week, as the least favored of the major four index ETFs.

Their RSI crossed over the neutral 50 mark after Wednesday’s gap up session, while their MACD is still bearish, but looks set to cross over bullishly during Tuesday’s session.

Volumes were -1.81% lower than the prior year’s average (36,092,000 vs. 36,757,391), which much like SPY tells of there being some trouble brewing for readers to be aware of.

Last week QQQ fell -2.2% on volume that was -2.3% lower than the prior year, while this week there was slightly more participation among investors, but gains mostly came on the back of Wednesday & Friday’s opening gap ups.

Monday QQQ’s week began on a gap down that managed to break below the $500/share mark briefly, before rallying higher to close above $505/share & an upper shadow showing that there was some more appetite for higher prices.

Given that this day had the second lowest volume of the week & was by no means noteworthy in terms of volume compared to the past 5+ months, it doesn’t have sturdy legs as a reversal point & needs to provide more proof in terms of the change of general sentiment in the market.

Tuesday opened on a gap up, tested higher, but ultimately retraced almost all of Monday’s candle’s real body’s price range before closing just below Monday’s closing price.

This should be cause for concern as there was more volume on Tuesday than Monday, reflecting in part some short-term profit taking, but also some market participants slowly jumping back into the pool.

Note that on Tuesday, both the 10 & 50 DMAs’ resistance levels were neck & neck & above QQQ’s price, before Wednesday’s gap up open occurred right in-line with both levels, and despite there being a retest & breakdown of their support levels, it proved temporary as prices powered higher throughout the session.

Wednesday resulted in the second highest volume of the week, but when compared to Friday’s volume (highest day) it was nothing to write home about, despite the good news pouring in in terms of big banks’ earnings results.

Recall too that financial stocks are not typically included in QQQ, which should add an added bit of skepticism about the staying power behind the day’s move.

Thursday opened on another gap higher, but sunk back down to sit in-line with the support of the 10 & 50 day moving averages, which were still braided together.

None of the above spell out a particularly strong outlook, or much in terms of optimism, which makes Friday’s performance all the more important.

Friday opened on a gap up, and despite the small upper shadow on the session’s candle is a hanging man candle, indicating that there is uncertainty & bearishness still in the air.

While it took the week’s highest volume award, Friday’s session was quite the game of tug of war between bulls & bears, where prices failed to reach the $525/share level, tested to the downside to break down the support of both the 10 & 50 day moving averages, only to close at $521.74, but lower than its opening price ($522.85).

Options expiration may have contributed to these swings & some covering/squeezing may have also played a factor, but there is not an overwhelming amount of confidence out there at the moment.

QQQ’s week ahead looks similar, except that to the upside they’ll need ~3% to challenge their all-time high, but an uptick in advancing volume will be essential for it to be sustainable.

They’ll need to break above the $525/share price level as well to find stable footing, as all of the prices for the next -2.25% lower are dominated by sellers historically, which would lead to further breakdowns for QQQ & push their price below the support of the 10 & 50 day moving averages.

If the $514.75 support breaks down it will lead to them being challenged, and if they break down expect to see a retest of the $508.47 price level.

Otherwise, much like SPY, there will likely be further consolidation & oscillation around the 10 & 50 day moving averages until there is a major catalyst to the up or downside, as this is a shortened, quiet week.

QQQ has support at the $514.75 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.38:1), $514.65 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.38:1), $514.29 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.38:1) & $508.47/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.6:1) price levels, with resistance at the $531.24 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 0.6:0*) & $538.28/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: 0.7:0*) price levels.

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF advanced +3.98%, as the small cap index was the most favored among market participants out of the major four index ETFs.

Their RSI crossed over above their neutral 50 mark & sits at 51.33 after Wednesday’s gap up session, while their MACD crossed over bullishly on Thursday.

Volumes were -14.6% lower than the prior year’s average (26,390,000 vs. 30,902,213), which also tells a tale of uncertainty that could well result in weakness in the coming week(s).

It is worth noting before we proceed that IWM’s chart is unique in that it contains no proper declining sessions compared to SPY & QQQ, however, there’s still a lot that stands to be improved from a place of market confidence for the small-cap index.

Firstly, on Monday IWM opened on a gap down, wound up declining to test the long-term trend’s support level a the 200 day moving average, before advancing higher to close above the prior Friday’s close.

While the session had the second highest volume of the week, the small upper shadow combined with the overall lackluster volume compared to the previous year’s average level is reason to carry caution into the coming week.

Tuesday featured a gap up open to near the $220/share price level, that tested below the $217.50 price level intraday, as well as above the $220/share level before ultimately settling up for an advancing session, but closed as a spinning top, indicating indecision.

The size of the upper shadow on Tuesday’s candle does not categorize it necessarily as a hanging man, but it certainly looks similar.

Wednesday IWM gapped up on the open to above the resistance of the 10 day moving average & above the $225/share mark on the highest volume of the week, but left reason for concern still for market participants.

Throughout the day the bulls & bears battled it out, at times forcing prices to near as low as $222.50/share & while the session closed above the day’s low, it was below the opening price, indicating that there was still quite a bit of doubt circulating IWM & its component stocks.

Thursday this theme continued, as volumes plunged to the lowest level of the week & while the session opened higher & did advance, it resulted in a spinning top high wave candle, marking a lot of uncertainty among market participants.

The lows of Thursday were lower than Wednesday’s lows & their high was lower than Wednesday’s opening price, which is a reason to tread cautiously.

The spinning top also signifies indecision & the high waves of the upper/lower shadows also show that there was a lot of reshuffling of cards amongst players, and that type of repositioning the day before an option’s expiration day is always cause for concern.

Friday couldn’t shake this theme, as the open was on a gap up higher & prices eroded all day until the $225/share mark was temporarily broken through, but prices were propped back up to close at $225.46/share to end the week, which is lower than the opening price of $226.93.

IWM will face an interesting week, as its price currently sits in a price zone that is Seller dominated 3:1, and all of the next four resistance levels are in the same zone.

In the event it gets the volume to break above the $227.17-18 levels it’ll be in a Buyer dominated zone 5:1 where it will need to break above the resistance of the 50 day moving average.

To the downside it has Buyer dominated support levels for the next -4.2%, but if you look at their past year’s chart there hasn’t been much downside testing against these levels, which might occur in the wake of some negative earnings data this week or possible bad economic data next week.

It’s also worth noting that IWM’s long-term trend line (200 DMA) is only ~5% from their closing price on Friday, which resides in a Seller dominated zone & could make for an interesting retest should prices break down.

Otherwise, expect oscillations between the 10 & 50 DMAs until an upside or downside catalyst.

IWM has support at the $225.20 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 3:1), $223.51 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.92:1), $222.12 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.92:1) & $221.04/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.92:1) price levels, with resistance at the $225.73 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 3:1), $226.50 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 3:1), $227.17 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 3:1) & $227.18/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 3:1) price levels.

DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF was up +3.67% for the week last week.

Their RSI has just crossed up above the neutral 50 level & sits at 56.5 following Wednesday & Friday’s gap ups, while their MACD crossed over bullishly on Wednesday.

Volumes were -12.7% lower than the previous year’s average (2,922,000 vs. 3,347,075), which should be noted given that most of the week’s session’s were advances that opened on gap ups, as this exposes weakness in the moves.

Monday DIA opened lower, but rallied on the week’s weakest volumes to close near Friday’s opening price, but the volume weakness was not convincing that there was a true reversal at play.

Tuesday opened on a gap higher to be in-line with the 10 day moving average, but retraced lower throughout the session to below Monday’s close before rallying back to close as a hanging man candle, indicating that there was not particularly strong sentiment abound.

Wednesday opened on a gap higher on the week’s strongest volume, but closed as a spinning top candle, indicating uncertainty among investors, and a great deal of it.

The primary takeaway is that the $430/share level held up & remained resilient, but prices were not able to test the 50 day moving average’s resistance.

Thursday is when things began to look murky, as the session opened slightly lower than Wednesday’s close, and closed in-line with its opening price, forming another spinning top & being a penny shy of a bearish harami candle.

It’s worth noting too that this declining volume was the second lowest of the week, so there was an extreme air of caution.

Friday also flashed warning signs, as the session opened on a gap up to just below the 50 day moving average, temporarily broke out above it, before settling back down to form a gravestone doji candle.

This will be an area to keep an eye on this week, as while their current price zone & the one below it are historically Buyer dominated, they have faced limited downside tests & Friday’s candle doesn’t indicate that there was enough upwards sentiment for DIA.

Another area to watch for DIA is the long-term trend line, which is currently ~6.2% below Friday’s closing price & climbing higher.

This week prices are likely to oscillate around between the 10 & 50 day moving averages, barring some catalyst to the upside or downside.

If the 10 DMA gets retested it is currently in a zone dominated by Sellers 3:1, which would put the $421.56/share support level in DIA’s crosshairs as an important support point.

DIA has support at the $434.71 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.67:1), $431.53 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 5:1), $428.24 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 5:1) & $427.03/share (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 3:1) price levels, with resistance at the $443.15 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.67:1) & $450.08/share (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.4:0*) price levels.

The Week Ahead

Monday there is no economic data due to release as it is Martin Luther King Jr. Day.

There is also no data currently scheduled for release on Tuesday, 1/21/25.

Tuesday morning’s earnings reports feature 3M, Charles Schwab, Community Financial System, D.R. Horton, FB Financial, Fifth Third Bancorp, KeyCorp, New Oriental Education & Technology, Old National Bancorp, Peoples Bancorp, Progressive & Prologis, with Netflix, Agilysys, Canadian National Railway, Capital One Financial, Fulton Financial, Hancock Whitney, Interactive Brokers, Pathward Financial, Pinnacle Financial Partners, Progress Software, RBB Bancorp, Seagate Technology, Simmons First National, United Airlines, Wintrust Financial & Zions Bancorp scheduled to report after the closing bell.

U.S. Leading Economic Indicators are released Wednesday morning at 10 am.

Wednesday morning’s earnings reports include GE Vernova, Abbott Laboratories, Ally Financial, Amphenol, BankUnited, Comerica, Commerce Bancshares, F.N.B. Corp, Halliburton, Johnson & Johnson, OFG Bancorp, Procter & Gamble, TE Connectivity, Textron, Travelers & United Community Banks, with Alcoa, CACI International, Cadence Bank, Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd., Cathay Bancorp, Celestica, Discover Financial Services, Hexcel, Kinder Morgan, Knight-Swift Transportation, National Bank, Plexus, RLI Corp, SL Green Realty, Steel Dynamics, Waste Connections & WesBanco all due to report after the session’s close.

Thursday kicks off with Initial Jobless Claims data at 8:30 am.

Alaska Air Group, American Airlines, Atlantic Union Bankshares, Banc of California, Elevance Health, First Bancorp, FirstService, Freeport-McMoRan, GATX, GE Aerospace, McCormick, Northern Trust, Pacific Premier, Rogers Communications, Teck Resources, Texas Capital, Union Pacific, Valley National & WNS all report earnings on Thursday morning, followed by Associated Banc-Corp, Columbia Banking, CSX, Customers Bancorp, East West Banc, First Financial Bancorp, Glacier Bancorp, Intuitive Surgical, Sallie Mae, South State & Texas Instruments after the closing bell.

S&P Flash U.S. Services PMI & S&P flash U.S. Manufacturing PMI are scheduled for release Friday at 9:45 am, followed by Existing Home Sales & Consumer Sentiment at 10 am.

Friday morning’s earnings reports feature American Express, HCA, Lakeland Financial, NextEra Energy, Northwest Bancshares & Verizon Communications.

See you back here next week!

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM OR DIA AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF finished the third consecutive four day shortened week -1.94%, while the VIX closed at 19.54, indicating an implied one day move of +/-1.23% & an implied one month move of +/-5.65%.

Their RSI is trending down closer to oversold territory & sits currently at 39.34, while their MACD continues bearishly lower as it has been since early December.

Volumes were +1.03% above the previous year’s average level (57,120,000 vs. 56,537,421), which should cause concern for market participants, given that most of the volume was declining & it was in a short week.

Also, as has been noted over the past nine months, volumes as a whole for all of the major index ETFs for the most part have been markedly lower since April 19,2024, so the fact that this week was slightly above average SPY volume is really not a great sign.

Monday set the tone for a week of continued weakness for SPY, as a light volume session opened on a gap up above the 10 & 50 day moving averages’ resistance, only to result in a spinning top candle, who closed lower than it opened, in a move that does not inspire confidence.

It’s upper shadow showed that there was some interest in the $600/share mark at one point during the day, but that profits were quickly taken & there was a test of the 10 DMA’s support that held up for the day.

There was quite a bit of uncertainty floating around in SPY & its components in a shortened week before earnings season begins again.

Tuesday the floor fell out, as SPY opened higher, but proceeded to sink below both the 10 & 50 day moving averages’ support & continue lower, with the lower shadow indicating that there was still some appetite to push prices lower than where they wound up closing at, which occurred on the second highest volume of the week.

People were clearly deciding it time to cash in their chips & take their profits given the higher than normal volume of the week noted above.

Wednesday has similar low volumes as Monday, and the day’s candle continued painting the grim outlook for SPY, as while the day opened higher, it quickly showed that investors had their eyes set on the $585/share level & temporarily dropped that low before being squeezed higher to close the day with a slight advance.

It should be noted that the 10 DMA crossed bearishly through the 50 DMA on Wednesday as well, signaling that there will be a rocky couple of weeks ahead of us for SPY.

Friday confirmed that, when the week’s highest volume session came on a declining day that opened above $585, but barreled down to close at $580.49 by the end of the day, with the lower shadow indicating that there was appetite for SPY <$580/share.

In terms of what to watch for this week, much of last week’s same themes continue, as there are little upside catalysts, unless earnings reports mid-week from the big banks stun investors positively, which seems increasingly less likely.

Even should we get a pleasant surprise, the current upside view is hinged upon the 10 & 50 DMAs’ resistance, which are now both bearing down on price as investors have already signaled that they don’t mind pushing SPY into the $575 price block.

Another thing to be mindful of is that over the past ~2 years SPY when trading between $580-584.99/share has been dominated by Sellers at the rate of 2.1:1 & that is the price block they closed in on Friday.

As was alluded on last week, there are now no support levels until $565.99/share, which presents a new problem for SPY.

In the table below you can see that the $570-574.99/share zone is Buyer dominated 5.33:1, but there are no support levels in that zone, leading SPY into a Seller dominated zone where the ratio is 1.53:1.

Should that support level break down the next is $561.54, which occurs in a Buyer dominated zone where the ratio is 0.8:0*, indicating that sellers have not historically been active in this price zone.

Typically these zones get retested & there will be more declining volume, which suddenly leaves SPY with the $560.59/share support level & then the 200 day moving average, which represents the long-term trend.

While the decline from Friday’s closing price to hit the 200 DMA is -4.81%, it is something to keep an eye out for as we descend into an anticipated earnings season.

Unless there is a major change in advancing volume levels it seems unlikely that there will be any sturdy upside move in the coming week, and should there be one the 10 & 50 DMAs’ resistance will also need to be broken through, which seems unlikely after the past few weeks.

At best, perhaps price will straddle/oscillate around the 10 DMA.

SPY has support at the $565.99 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.53:1), $561.54 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.8:0*), $560.59 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.8:0*) & $552.58/share (200-Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.25:1) price levels, with resistance at the $580.91 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2.1:1), $581.90 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2.1:1), $584.15 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2.1:1) & $590.12/share (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 4.2:1) price levels.

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF finished the week down -2.2%, as the tech-heavy NASDAQ index saw even more selling than SPY.

Their RSI is also downtrending & sits at 42.89, while their MACD continues to bearishly decline.

Volumes were -2.28% lower than the previous year’s average level (36,027,500 vs. 36,869,643), which is cause for concern similar to SPY’s, given that this occurred on a short week.

Again, while average volume levels of the past year have become diluted compared to what they were when running the same exercise nine months ago, these “high” levels are cause for concern given that they’re occurring on declining weeks at somewhat pivotal points on their one year charts.

Much like SPY, QQQ opened the week up on unstable footing, with a spinning top candle on Monday that had long upper & lower shadows indicating that there was a lot of tug of war taking place between bulls & the bears.

Tuesday the floor fell out from under QQQ, as the day opened higher, but on the week’s second highest volume their price crashed through the 10 day moving average’s support & their candles’s lower shadow showed that there was appetite for taking on the 50 DMA as well.

Wednesday confirmed this, when the day wound up temporarily breaking down through the 50 DMA, but was able to close as a doji that closed lower than it has opened, indicating weakness, especially when combined with the low volume.

Friday the session opened on a gap down to below the 50 DMA & never tested its resistance level, and continued to decline lower, with a lower shadow indicating that there is likely more downside movement on the horizon in the coming week(s).

As we’ve been saying for months, QQQ & SPY have been trading quite similarly to one another & what to look for this week is similar between the two.

On each ETF’s chart there is an emerging bearish head & shoulders pattern, which appears to be continuing into this new week.

QQQ’s 10 DMA will cross bearishly through their 50 DMA as well by Wednesday, which will apply downwards pressure on the price, leading to their 200 DMA, the long-term trend, which is currently their fourth support level from Friday’s closing price.

Their 200 DMA is -6.2% below Friday’s closing price, which will make for an interesting test against the long-term trend should they meet again like they did temporarily in August (recall they barely came out of that ahead).

Prices are likely to fluctuate around between the 200, 50 & 10 DMAs in the coming week in a form of consolidation.

Referencing the data below re: volume sentiments appears like a rosy picture at first, but aside from the $492-495.99/share zone there is not a whole lot of support, particularly when you break down how untested many of the price levels below are.

Any type of upside movement will likely be straddling/oscillating around the 10 DMA, as unless there is significant advancing volume there doesn’t appears to be much left in the tank to retest QQQ’s all-time high.

QQQ has support at the $502 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.22:1), $493.69 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 4.13:1), $484.08 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.88:1) & $475.74/share (200-Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.52:1) price levels, with resistance at the $508.47 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.6:1), $512.41 (50-Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.38:1), $514.75 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.38:1) & $517/share (10-Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.33:1) price levels.

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF declined -3.39%, as the small cap index was the least favored of the major four index ETFs last week.

Their RSI is trending down towards the oversold 30 mark & sits at 33.33, while their MACD continues its descent lower.

Volumes were -6.52% lower than the previous year’s average (29,140,000 vs. 31,172,738), which is sending a bearish signal given that 20% of the trading week didn’t take place & the week resulted in declines; people wanted out.

Monday opened up similar to QQQ & SPY, where low volumes & wide daily ranges ran supreme, but IWM’s session managed to close lower than it opened, a bearish signal.

Tuesday the bleeding really started, as the day opened within the prior day’s range made an upwards move but was quickly halted only to break down below the 10 day moving average’s support, and barely being able to rally up to close in-line with it on the second highest volume of the week.

Wednesday this theme continued, as the session opened on a gap down & while it managed to close higher than it opened, and the low volumes made it near impossible for IWM to run at the 10 day moving average’s resistance.

Friday this continued, with another gap down which brought IWM’s price +1.46% above the 200 day moving average, making the long-term trend beginning to look in danger.

Friday’s volume being the highest of the week is also a troubling issue, as it does begin to make the long-term trend look in danger of breaking down.

As mentioned above, there also appears to be a bearish head & shoulders emerging which will require some heavy advancing volume to break out of to the upside.

It should be noted too that the 4th support level for IWM is also their 200 DMA, much like SPY & QQQ.

This week it will be important to keep an eye out on how the price interacts with the 200 DMA’s support & the descending 10 & 50 DMAs above them.

So far in 2024 IWM managed to stay above the 200 DMA’s support, but this is looking like that may break down in the event of a retest, particularly as their all-time high took place only a month ago.

Volume sentiment also suggests that the trend may break down, given that the $212-215.99/share price level is Seller dominated 1.29:1.

Should that break down the $208-211.99/share zone is the strongest Buyer zone nearby for IWM, which will need to hold up should the $209.94/share support level be tested again.

IWM has support at the $216.73 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.66:1), $214.01 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.29:1), $213.96 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.29:1) & $213.71/share (200-Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.29:1) price levels, with resistance at the $217.85 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.66:1), $221.04 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.92:1), $222.11 (10-Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.92:1) & $223.51/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.92:1) price levels.

DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF dropped -1.83% last week, as even the blue chip index saw investors creeping towards the door & taking profits.

Their RSI is also trending down towards the oversold level much like IWM & sits at 33.24, while their MACD continues to sink lower.

Volumes were -18.58% lower than the previous year’s average (2,737,500 vs. 3,362,341), which signals that market participants are really getting anxious & there’s a bit of fear in the air.

Monday began on a high volume sell-off (relative to the rest of the week) where the 10 DMA’s support broke down.

Tuesday managed to open above the 10 DMA, but quickly ducked bath beneath it & that theme carried out throughout the week based on the downside appetite shown by the candle’s lower shadow.

Wednesday the bleeding took a short pause on low volume, and the spinning top candle showed that there was quite a bit of uncertainty in the air, especially as the session did not advance much at all towards the 10 DMA’s resistance.

Friday the pain continued, on a gap down session that wound up taking -1.6% off of DIA’s price on high volume for the week.

In the week ahead it will be beneficial to keep an eye out on for how the price moves in relation to the resistance of the 10 & 50 DMAs above, as well as how far above its 200 DMA’s support it can stay before a retest.

DIA is further from its long-term trend line vs. the previous three mentioned index ETFs in terms of support levels, but its price is still ~3% above the 200 DMA’s support, while a similar head & shoulders reversal pattern to the prior three ETFs is appearing on their one year chart.

Sustainable upward movement for DIA will require an influx in advancing volume, and the volume at the immediate price levels below Friday’s close do look like they’re ready to be tested against, particularly the $408-411.99/share zone which is currently in favor of the Buyers 10:1.

DIA has support at the $414.99 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.67:1), $413.73 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.67:1), $410.53 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 10:1) & $408.89/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 10:1) price levels, with resistance at the $421.72 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.17:1), $426.34 (10-Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 3:1), $428.40 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 5:1) & $431.69/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 5:1) price levels.

The Week Ahead

Monday the week begins with the Monthly U.S. Federal Budget at 2 pm & KB Homes reports earnings after the session’s close.

NFIB Optimism Index data is released Tuesday at 6 am, followed by Producer Price Index, Core PPI, PPI Year-over-Year & Core PPI Year-over-Year data at 8:30 am, Fed President Schmid speaking at 10 am & the Fed Beige Book at 2pm.

Tuesday morning features earnings from Progressive, followed by Applied Digital Corp. & Calavo Growers after the closing bell.

Wednesday begins with Consumer Price Index, CPI Year-over-Year, Core CPI, Core CPI Year-over-Year, Empire State Manufacturing Survey & Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey data at 8:30 am, followed by Home Builder Confidence Index & Business Inventories data at 10 am.

JP Morgan Chase, BlackRock, BNY Mellon, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs & Wells Fargo report earnings before Wednesday’s opening bell, with Concentrix, H.B. Fuller, Home Bancshares & Synovus reporting after the session’s close.

Initial Jobless Claims, U.S. Retail Sales, Retail Sales minus Autos, Import Price Index & Import Price Index minus Fuel data are all scheduled for 8:30 am on Thursday.

Thursday morning starts off with UnitedHealth Group, Bank of America, First Horizon, Insteel Industries, M&T Bank, Morgan Stanley, PNC Financial Services Group, & U.S. Bancorp reporting earnings, followed by Bank OZK & J.B. Hunt Transportation Services after the closing bell.

Friday the week winds down with Housing Starts & Building Permits data at 8:30 am, followed by Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization data at 9:15 am.

SLB reports earnings Friday morning, as well as Citizens Financial Group, Fastenal, Huntington Banc, Regions Financial, State Street, Truist Financial & Webster Financial.

See you back here next week!

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM OR DIA AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF dipped -0.51% on a short holiday week last week, while the VIX closed the week at 16.13, indicating an implied one day move of +/-1.02% & a one month implied move of +/-4.66%.

Their RSI is trending up back towards the neutral 50 mark & sits currently at 48.33 after Friday’s bullish session, while their MACD remains bearish.

Volumes were -11.6% below the prior year’s average (50.430.000 vs. 57,050,198), which should be cause for concern given how low they’ve been in the previous months when prices were advancing & this week was short & a declining week.

This becomes even more concerning when you factor in that Friday’s session was +1.25% & was the only advancing session of the week.

Monday started the week off on a sour note, as an opening gap down led to a high wave candle on high declining volume for the week.

While the session managed to temporarily break out above the 50 day moving average’s resistance, it was unable to close near it & resulted in a doji candle, setting the stage for a week of further declines.

Tuesday managed to open higher than Monday’s close, but again market participants were in a selling mood & the day resulted in a bearish engulfing candle pattern that was unable to break above the 50 DMA’s resistance.

Wednesday the market was closed for New Years day, but the selling continued on Friday, as the third highest volume session of the week brought on further declines.

Thursday’s session also tried to test the 50 DMA unsuccessfully, and the lower shadow on the candlestick indicates that there is still downside appetite from where the week closed up.

Friday was the only advancing session of the week & the only reason that the weekly losses were pared to the level that they were, as prices closed just above the 10 & 50 day moving averages.

Monday will be important to watch to see if SPY dips back below their 10 & 50 DMAs, which will be crossing over bearishly either on Monday or Tuesday.

Based on last week’s outflows it seems unlikely that they will remain above these levels, particularly given how Friday’s advancing session had the week’s lowest volume.

It’s also worth noting that volumes were much stronger than they’ve been since April 19,2024, which is not a good thing given that the week resulted in a decline & should’ve been worse had Friday not staged the recovery that it did.

Another thing to note is that the window created by the post-election gap up still has not been completely filled, which adds another bit of negativity to the mix when thinking about where SPY is headed next.

The beginning of this week will focus on whether or not the 10 & 50 DMAs can hold up as support levels, as SPY is barely above them from a price perspective, but they have a history of being Buyer dominated 4.2:1 over the past ~2 years.

In the event of a breakdown, the next three support levels fall in a zone that has been dominated by the Sellers 2:1 over that time period, which indicates that there is selling pressure all the way down to $579.99/share.

Should this breakdown occur there’s no support until $565.99, which is in a Seller dominated zone 1.53:1, before entering a relatively untested Buyer dominated zone in the $560-564.99/share range.

That would be a -5.4% decline from Friday’s closing price, which in a shortened four day week in observance of President Carter’s death is likely a stretch.

There isn’t much data or earnings this week that would inspire much of an upwards move, unless the December FOMC minutes come in with a massively dovish tone & the recent volumes do not indicate that market participants will be overly eager to jump back into the pool.

SPY has support at the $591.85 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 4.2:1), $591.38 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 4.2:1), $584.15 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2:1) & $581.90/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2:1) price levels, with resistance at the $598.16 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.5:1), $602.48 (Volume Sentiment: Even, 1:1) & $607.03/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.8:0*) price levels.

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF declined -0.76%, faring the worst of the major index ETFs for a second consecutive week.

Their RSI just broke north through the neutral level & sits at 50.94 after Friday’s session, while their MACD remains bearish.

Volumes were -12.73% lower than the previous year’s average (32,287,500 vs. 36,996,008), which like SPY’s is troubling considering how much lower than average they’d been for the prior 8-9 months while QQQ was advancing.

QQQ opened the week up on a similar foot as SPY, gapping down & resulting in a high wave candle that closed in line with its open, indicating that there was quite a bit of uncertainty among market participants.

Volumes were solid Monday & that participation rolled into Tuesday, when QQQ opened higher, but slid lower throughout the day to close out for a loss just above the 50 day moving average’s support.

Thursday continued the trend of weakness, as the day opened midway through Tuesday’s range, before declining & temporarily breaking down through the 50 DMA’s support, but managed to close in-line with it.

Friday the bulls came out to play, although in low numbers as the volume wasn’t spectacular in the wake of the declines of the prior six sessions, and QQQ ended the week just below its 10 day moving average’s resistance.

This coming week will focus on whether or not QQQ can find enough buyers to come out & continue to push prices higher.

Friday’s price action showed that market participants want to respect by the medium-term trend given that Thursday managed to close above the 50 DMA & Friday went higher, but the volumes around it were not convincing.

Even if the 10 DMA is broken above temporarily, QQQ’s current price level & the one above it & one below it are all historically dominated by Sellers, so there will need to be a big push in order to break back above these zones.

To the upside, QQQ is still ~3% from their All-Time High, which was aided greatly by Friday’s +1.64% advancing session to offset some of the other declines of the prior six days.

With this in mind & recalling that this too is a short week those & the relationship of price to the 10 & 50 day moving averages will be in focus.

QQQ has support at the $514.75 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.38:1), $510.53 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.38:1), $508.47 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.6:1) & $502/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.22:1) price levels, with resistance at the $519.18 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.33:1), $531.24 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 0.6:0*) & $538.28/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.7:0*) price levels.

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF advanced +0.92% for the week, as the small cap index staged a bit of a recovery in its consolidation range after a rocky end to 2024.

Their RSI is trending up towards the neutral mark & sits currently at 44.5, while their MACD is still bearish, but its histogram is signaling that there may be a further consolidation in the near-term.

Volumes were -15.72% below the previous year’s average level (26,452,500 vs. 31,387,826), which is not a major indicator of strength & confidence, despite the brief recovery from the losses of the previous month.

Like SPY & QQQ, IWM opened on a gap down on Monday & the session closed as a high wave candle on decent volume for the week, further distancing itself from the resistance of the 10 & 50 day moving averages.

The next day gapped up on the open & tested higher to briefly break through the 10 DMA’s resistance, but was unable to stay elevated & would up dropping lower to test against the $220/share price level, before closing above it but below the opening price, indicating that there was still lots of negative sentiment in the air.

Thursday managed to open above the 10 DMA & move higher, but gave back all of the gains by the end of the session & closed lower than it opened with a lower shadow that indicated that there was appetite for IWM below $220, which will be something to keep an eye on in the coming week(s).

Thursday’s moves came on the highest volume of the week as well, which helped gather investor momentum for Friday’s +1.49% advance which brought the week into the black.

It should be noted that Friday’s session was the lowest volume session of the week, which makes the staying power of the move higher come into question.

IWM faces a difficult week(s) ahead, as they have a number of resistance levels just overhead, all of which belong to a price zone that s historically Seller dominated 3:1.

It should be noted that the last time prices broke above the $227.18/share resistance level was the gap up after the U.S. Presidential election, so pending another catalyst that inspires optimism among market participants, it is difficult to see much strength to the upside without a large increase in volume.

IWM has managed to consolidate since the end of December & stayed in a relatively tight range near the 10 day moving average, which is likely to continue into this week.

Another thing to keep an eye on is that in the event of a decline, the long-term trend (200 day moving average) is just -4.93% below Friday’s closing price & is currently in a seller dominated price zone ($212-215.99), which will make for an interesting retest after IWM managed to stay above their 200 DMA in August, the last time they met.

IWM has support at the $223.51 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.92:1), $222.19 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.92:1), $221.04 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.92:1) & $217.85/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.66:1) price levels, with resistance at the $225.20 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 3:1), $225.73 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 3:1), $226.50 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 3:1) & $227.18/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 3:1) price levels.

DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF slipped -0.66% for the week, as even the blue chip index was not immune to losses.

Their RSI is trending back towards neutral & currently at 41.95 after Friday’s session, while their MACD is still trending bearishly.

Volumes were -6.4% lower than the prior year’s average (3,182,500 vs. 3,400,040), which indicates that even the blue chip names have begun to lose their luster in the eyes of market participants.

Monday began the week with the second strongest volume of the week & resulted in a gap down high wave candle, indicating that there was a wide range of prices that the market deemed fair for DIA, both above & below it.

Tuesday opened on a gap higher but proceeded to go lower throughout the day & resulted in a decline on the week’s second lowest volume, leading to Thursday which is where things become interesting.

Thursday opened on a gap higher above the 10 DMA’s resistance, tested a little bit higher, before galling back down through the 10 DMA, testing lower than any day of the week & settled for a loss & forming a bearish engulfing pattern with Tuesday’s candle on the week’s highest volume.

Friday saw an advance of +0.79% which helped trim the losses of the rest of the week, but it came with an interesting twist as the candle formed a bullish harami pattern with Thursday’s candle.

What makes this interesting is that the session had the lowest volume of the week, indicating a lack of conviction among market participants, and it also resulted in a spinning top candle, which shows indecision.

Moving into this week it will be interesting to see if DIA is able to break above the 10 DMA’s resistance, and if it can if it remains there or if it is a short term stay.

The window caused by the election has still not been fully filled, which should be on people’s radar as there is only one support level separating Friday’s closing price and the bottom of the window.

It should be noted that the support of the 200 Dya moving average is -4.9% below Friday’s closing price, so if the window does close there may well be a test of the long-term trend.

While the price zone above the 200 DMA has historically been Buyer dominated 10:1 ($408-411.99), this may not be able to save DIA from a downside test of it.

To the upside, should DIA break above its 10 DMA, it still has the resistance of the 50 DMA & would likely find itself consolidating into a range between the two for the rest of the coming short week.

DIA has support at the $421.72 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.17:1), $414.99 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.67:1), $413.73 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.67:1) & $410.53/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 10:1) price levels, with resistance at the $427.87 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 3:1), $431.69 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 5:1), $433.60 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.67:1) & $433.67/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.67:1) price levels.

The Week Ahead

Monday kicks the week off with Fed Governor Cook speaking at 9:15 am, followed by Factory Orders at 10 am.

Commercial Metals reports earnings before Monday’s opening bell.

Fed President Barkin speaks Tuesday at 8 am, followed by Governor Waller speaking & U.S. Trade Deficit data coming out at 8:30 am & ISM Services data & Job Openings data at 10 am.

Tuesday morning’s earnings reports include Apogee Enterprises, Lindsay Corp. & RPM Inc., followed by AAR Corp., AZZ, Cal-Maine Foods & Simulations Plus after the closing bell.

Wednesday leads off with ADP Employment data at 8:15 am, Minutes from December’s FOMC meeting at 2pm & Consumer Credit data at 3pm.

Acuity Brands, Albertsons, AngioDynamics, Helen Of Troy, MSC Industrial, Radius Recycling & UniFirst report earnings before Wednesday’s opening bell, followed by Greenbrier, Jefferies & Penguin Solutions.

Initial Jobless Claims data is released Thursday at 8:30 am, followed by Fed President Harker speaking at 9 am, Wholesale Inventories data at 10 am & Fed Governor Bowman speaking at 1:35 pm.

Simply Good Foods will report earnings on Thursday morning, followed by Accolade, KB Home & PriceSmart, but the market will not be open in observance of President Carter’s recent passing.

Friday the week winds down with the U.S. Employment Report, U.S. Unemployment Rate, U.S. Hourly Wages & U.S. Hourly Wages Year-over-Year data at 8:30 am before Consumer Sentiment (prelim) data at 10 am.

Delta Airlines, Walgreens Boots Alliance, Constellation Brands, Neogen, TD Synnex & Tilray all report earnings before Friday’s opening bell, with WD-40 reporting after the session’s close.

See you back here next week!

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM OR DIA AT THE TIME OF WRITING THIS ARTICLE ***

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF added +0.65% last week, while the VIX closed at 15.95, indicating an implied one day move of +/-1.01% & a one month implied move of +/-4.61%.

Their RSI just broke bearishly through the neutral 50 level & sits currently at 49.32, while their MACD has resumed its bearish descent.

Volumes were -14.68% lower than the prior year’s average (49,277,500 vs. 57,755,675), which is notable as Friday’s declining session had the highest volume of the shortened holiday week.

Monday continued the short-term reversal that was set into motion with the prior Friday’s breakout above the 50 day moving average’s resistance.

It should be noted though that the fragility noted in last week’s note was still in play on Monday, as the session opened above the 50 DMA’s support, but temporarily dipped below it, indicating that there was still downside appetite among investors, despite SPY powering higher to close close to the 10 DMA’s resistance.

Tuesday opened on a gap up to just below the 10 DMA, before powering higher to close above it, however the volume was weak, which can be attributed to the shortened trading session.

Christmas was Wednesday so there was no trading, but Thursday signaled that weakness was setting in.

Thursday SPY opened slightly lower, tested down to midway down Tuesday’s candle’s real body, before testing slightly above its close & settling marginally up for the day.

This set up Friday’s opening gap down to complete an evening star bearish pattern, as Friday opened just above the 10 DMA’s support, before breaking all the way down to the 50 DMA & settling down for the day on the week’s highest volume.

As noted in last week’s market note, the relationship between price & the 10 & 50 day moving averages will still be an area to focus on heading into the new year.

While volumes last week were higher relative to the weekly volumes of the past few months, they still were not high enough to drive a meaningful upward movement that would gather any traction.

Without seeing a meaningful increase in upside volume the evening star pattern will be in main focus moving into this week & next, particularly given how much profit taking took place on Friday.

As of writing this the 50 DMA’s support broke down already, leaving less support levels between SPY’s price & the long term trend (200 DMA).

Should prices test the $580-584.99 price level they should have strong support given that there are three touch-points in that zone & that it has historically been dominated by Buyers at a rate of 1.86:1.

Should that break down the $570-579.99 price zones will be interesting to watch, as there are no formal support levels in that range, but there is Buyer dominated support at $570-574.99/share at a rate of 4.5:1.

If that window breaks down there is no support until $565.99/share, which occurs in a Seller dominated zone at a rate of 2:1 historically over the past ~2 years.

Declining to that support level would be a ~-5% decline from Friday’s close, and would open up SPY to further near-term declines based on support levels, which will be examined in more detail in next week’s note.

SPY has support at the $590.88 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $584.15 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.86:1), $581.90 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.86:1) & $580.91/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.86:1) price levels & resistance at the $596.11 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $598.16 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $602.48 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $607.03/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF advanced +0.75% last week, as the tech heavy index was the most favored of the major four index ETFs.

Their RSI is bearishly approaching the neutral 50 mark & sits currently at 53.17, while their MACD is continuing bearishly lower.

Volumes were -32.54% lower than the prior year’s average level (25,052,500 vs. 37,137,143), as market participants were very cautious to approach the tech heavy index.

Much like last week, QQQ’s chart is quite similar this week to SPY’s, as Monday kicked off continuing the ascent of Friday’s session on an opening gap up that temporarily retraced into Friday’s range, before climbing to close the day higher.

Tuesday opened on a gap up that opened near the 10 day moving average’s resistance & managed to break out above it to close higher on the day, but on the lowest volume of the week, indicating that there was waning sentiment among market participants.

Thursday was also a low volume session that opened lower, tested midway through Tuesday’s trading range, before testing slightly higher & closing above its open, but still as a declining session.

The indecision shown by the spinning top candle & low volume set up QQQ for Friday’s gap down session to complete the evening star pattern, as Friday opened just above the 10 day moving average’s support before breaking down through it & testing lower than Monday’s opening price for QQQ.

While it managed to close above Monday’s closing price, there was a big warning sign flashed last week, which will bring all attention to QQQ’s price & the relationship between it & the 10 & 50 day moving averages.

Should the support of the 50 DMA break down for QQQ, as per Friday’s closing price levels there was only a -7.11% spread between the two support levels, which should the top one break down may indicate trouble on the horizon.

This is especially true if the $493.69/share support level breaks down, as it lies in the $492-495.99/share price zone which is the strongest Buyer:Seller zone for QQQ, where Buyers have historically exceeded Sellers 17.25:1.

If this breaks down then there is a severe reversal in sentiment, as most price action around this area has tended to result in gaps up or down around the zone, with limited trading activity within it (most of which is clearly advancing).

QQQ has support at the $514.75 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $508.89 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $508.47 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $502.00/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2:0*) price levels & resistance at the $525.37 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $531.24 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $538.28/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF climbed +0.21%, as the small cap index was still the least favored for a second consecutive week.

Their RSI is trending bearishly & currently sits at 38.47 & their MACD is still bearish, but the histogram is tapering off & it has begun to flatten out; next week will tell whether it continues lower or not.

Volumes were -28.63% lower than the previous year’s average level (22,515,000 vs. 31,547,937), as the hesitancy to buy stocks on the shortened holiday week also impacted the small cap index.

Monday opened slightly lower on the strongest volume of the week, but the upper & lower shadow signaled that there was a lot of appetite to both the upside & downside, but the real body being concentrated at the top of the candle indicates that there was short-term upside potential.

Tuesday opened on a gap up, tested to the downside, but managed to continue higher & closed for an advancing day, however this happened on the lowest volume of the year for IWM, signaling that there was not much strength & conviction behind the move.

Thursday confirmed that the weakness was setting in, as the session opened lower & tested lower, before rallying up to the 10 DMA’s resistance & closing just below it.

While the volume on Thursday was the second highest of the week, it was still not much to write home about & the uncertainty remained in the air.

Friday opened midway between Thursday’s range, made a run at the 10 DMA’s resistance, got rejected & the floodgates opened with IWM briefly dipping below Monday’s opening price, but recovering to still end the session lower on the day.

Small caps look to be in a bit of trouble, as Friday’s closing price would hit the 200 DMA if it declined -4.3%.

In the near-term IWM looks like an area to tread carefully around, given that their medium term trend is above the short-term trend (50 & 10 DMAs), which are both above their current price level.

While there are many support levels near their current price, they’ve also dipped below a resistance zone, which will require an uptick in volume to break through.

For the rest of the week it would be wise to watch to gain clues & insight into market participant sentiment towards IWM & the small cap names to see how things may kick off in the first month of the new year.

IWM has support at the $221.04 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2:1), $218.07 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.4:1), $216.73 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.4:1) & $214.01/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.5:1) price levels & resistance at the $223.51 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2:1), $225.20 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2:1), $225.27 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2:1) & $225.73/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2:1) price levels.

DIA, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF notched +0.34% last week, as even the bluechip index received a “wait & see” approach from market participants.

Their RSI is trending bearishly further, sitting currently at 42.81, while their MACD remains bearish, but has flattened out over the past week <FINISH THIS LATER>

Volumes were -38.92% lower than the prior year’s average level (2,082,500 vs. 3,409,683), as there was a very low participation rate during the holiday week.

Monday the week kicked off on a bullish note, advancing for the day on the week’s highest volume.

Tuesday also saw gains for DIA, but on very low volume that was unable to break above the 10 DMA & the session closed in-line with it.

Thursday opened lower, before powering through the 10 DMA to test & get rejected by the 50 DMA’s resistance, but prices managed to close just beneath it.

Friday showed a rush to the exits & profits were taken after the gains of the short week, as the session opened on a gap down, tested higher to briefly break above the resistance of the 10 DMA, but ultimately closed lower on the day as a high wave spinning top candle.

Friday featured the second highest volume of the week as well, indicating that there was a great deal of bearish sentiment out there for DIA.

Heading into this week keep an eye out for any volume shifts, as that will provide clues into whether or not there will be pains or gains heading into the new year.

The chart below outlines DIA’s support & resistance levels with their volume sentiments over the past 3-4 years.

DIA has support at the $428.40 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.4:1), $421.72 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.2:1), $414.99 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3:1) & $413.73/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3:1) price levels & resistance at the $430.90 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.4:1), $431.69 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.4:1), $433.67 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.6:0*) & $433.91/share (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.6:0*) price levels.

The Week Ahead

The week kicks off Monday with Chicago Business Barometer (PMI) data at 9:45 am, followed by Pending Home Sales data at 10 am & there are no major earnings announcements scheduled.

Tuesday the year winds down with S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index (20 Cities) data at 9 am & there are no earnings reports scheduled for release.

Wednesday is New Year’s Day & there is no economic data or earning’s announcements.

Thursday the year kicks off with Initial Jobless Claims Data at 8:30 am, followed by Construction Spending data at 10 am & Resources Connection reports earnings to kick the new year off after the session’s close.

Friday the week winds down with ISM Manufacturing data at 10 am & there are no earnings reports scheduled for the day.

See you back here next week!

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM OR DIA AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF slipped -2.16% last week, while the VIX closed the week at 18.36, indicating an implied one day move of +/-1.16% & a one month implied move of +/-5.31% for SPY.

Their RSI is trending back towards the neutral mark of 50 & currently sits at 46.09 following Friday’s advancing session, while their MACD is still bearish, but the histogram is declining less rapidly than earlier in the week.

Volumes were +44.71% above the prior year’s average (83,872,000 vs. 57,959,641), as market participants began jumping out of the pool following Wednesday’s FOMC interest rate decision & Fed Chair Powell’s press conference.

Monday kicked the week off on an ominous note, as the session opened higher, tested a little bit above Friday’s opening price, before heading lower on low volume to close below the open straddling the 10 day moving average’s support.

The session also resulted in a spinning top, which indicates there was a bit of indecision in the air on the part of market participants.

Tuesday the theme continued, as the session opened lower & was unable to fight higher to cross the 10 DMA’s resistance, closing the day as a doji on slightly higher volume than Monday, indicating that uncertainty & caution were still in the air, but there was brief equilibrium.

Wednesday is where things really began to unravel, as the session opened lower with the 10 Day Moving Average, briefly tested higher, before crumbling on a wide range decline on the week’s second highest volume following Chair Powell’s remarks.

What’s more alarming is how easily it broke down the support of the 50 day moving average & managed to close beneath it, which will cause the 50 DMA to curl over bearishly like the 10 DMA already has.

Thursday the pain continued, as the session opened higher & in line with the 50 DMA & briefly tested higher, before unraveling & closing just below Wednesday’s close.

While the slightly lower close means that it was not a bearish harami, it was hardly a vote of confidence & a sign that profit taking may be morphing into a more serious downwards movement in the near-to-mid term when you consider that the session’s volume had only narrowly lower volume than the prior day.

Friday’s price action also continued the skeptical view of the strength behind SPY’s recent moves.

The day opened on a lower note from Thursday, but managed to draw in the most market participants of the week, powering it above the 50 DMA’s resistance & almost reaching the 10 DMA intraday, before profits were taken & the price closed just above the 50 DMA’s support.

While Friday formed a bullish engulfing pattern with Thursday’s candle & the volume & +1.2% advance are all nice, it is still wise to approach this short week & next week with caution.

Particularly as while the volume spike & wide daily range can indicate a reversal is on the horizon, that doesn’t seem likely beyond a brief movement following the squeeze/covering Friday session.

Especially given that there’s likely not going to be much volume this week which will likely continue into next week due to the holidays creating shorter weeks.

Without some type of volume catalyst it doesn’t seem there would be any near-term rallies, particularly when you factor in the limited earnings calls & market data reports that are due for release.

Watching the relationship between Price, the 10 DMA & the 50 DMA will be a key area of focus, particularly as the window created in early November following the US Presidential Election has yet to fully fill & SPY’s oscillators are not signaling strength at the moment.

It will also be worth watching how SPY interacts with its support levels, especially given that the first one has been relatively untested & the following two are slightly more sturdy but close enough to the current price that based on the price action of last week can easily break down, leading to the fourth level, which has been Seller dominated 2:1 over the past 2-3 years.

This will also open SPY up to being ~3% from its 200 day moving average’s support, which is an important long-term trend mark.

SPY has support at the $589.40 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.4:0*), $584.15 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.86:1), $581.90 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.86:1) & $565.99/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2:1) price levels, with resistance at the $598.00 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $598.16 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $607.03/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF fell -2.24% last week, in a week that closely mirrored SPY’s performance.

Their RSI is trending higher & sits at 51.53, while their MACD is bearish.

Volumes were +19.35% last week vs. the previous year’s average (44,446,000 vs. 37,240,478), as market participants were eager to get out of the pool on Wednesday & Thursday, but covering activity squeezed prices higher heading into the weekend.

QQQ opened the week on a more optimistic note than SPY, but it wasn’t without some caution signals.

Particularly of note was the low volume on Monday that helped QQQ hit a fresh all-time high despite it being a more solid advancing session than SPY’s.

Tuesday’s spinning top candle arrived on low volume as well & formed a bearish harami pattern with the prior day’s candle, which is when folks began heading to the door.

Wednesday opened slightly lower, but also on the second highest volume of the week ripped down straight through the support of the 10 day moving average.

Confirmation came on Thursday when on similar volume (slightly lower) the session opened briefly higher, before continuing to decline lower than Wednesday’s lower & price broke down below the $515/share mark.

Like SPY, QQQ’s Friday morning coffee came with a side order of lower, but it was able to briefly rally intraday to test the 10 DMA’s resistance, got rejected & closed in the middle of Thursday’s range.

This week it will be worth watching how the relatively untested $515.58/share support level holds up, as it’s recently broken down & prices are only above it due to Friday’s session, which while it may normal constitute a reversal opportunity, seems unlikely given that it occurred heading into tumbleweed volume week(s).

The next area of focus will be on the 50 DMA, not just as it is the next support level, but because once that support breaks down QQQ will be on unstable footing.

While QQQ has more local support touch-points than SPY, at the price levels we see now if the 50 DMA breaks down they may not be as resilient of support levels as originally thought if the moving mid-term trend has broken (as we’ve seen three times already in 2024).

QQQ has support at the $515.58 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $507 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $502.81 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2:0*) & $501.35/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2:0*) price levels, with resistance at the $525.32 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $539.15/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF declined -4.78% last week, as investors were eager to jump out of the components of the small cap index.

Their RSI is rebounding from the oversold 30 mark & sits currently at 34.67, while their MACD is still bearish & near the lowest levels on its histogram.

Volumes were +40.84% above the prior year’s average last week (44,674,000 vs. 31,720,637), which is alarming given that two of the top three highest volume days were declining sessions & IWM had already been in decline for three weeks before this.

Looking at their MACD you can observe that they’ve been falling since around Thanksgiving time, so that much outflow is reason for concern.

IWM’s chart for the week closely resembles SPY & QQQ’s in terms of intraday action, so in the spirit of the holidays we’ll give the gift of brevity here.

Monday’s weak volumes on an advancing day that did not reach high enough to test the resistance of the 10 day moving average set the stage for the declines of the prior few weeks to continue, and they did on Tuesday, on volume that was slightly higher than Monday’s.

Wednesday put the nails in IWM’s coffin, as the day did manage to test the 10 DMA’s resistance, but proceeded to decline through the 50 DMA & showed more weakness than SPY & QQQ in relation to the price:moving averages relationship.

Thursday & Friday also mimicked SPY & QQQ, but more damage was done in the days leading up to them.

This coming week keep an eye on the 10 & 50 day moving averages, anticipating a bearish crossover by Christmas.

From there broader market sentiment will become more important, as while IWM’s steady oscillating around an average price to slowly climb higher gives them more support levels than other indexes, if the larger cap names are showing severe weakness the small cap names won’t be spared from pain as well.

It should also be noted that IWM is only 4.24% above its 200 DMA’s support, which if that longer term trend breaks down may lead to further declines, particularly as it currently sits in a price zone that is historically Seller dominated 1.5:1 which may cause more of a further breakdown based on how the other indexes behave.

IWM has support at the $221.04 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2:1), $216.73 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.4:1), $214.01 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.5:1) & $213.96/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.5:1) price levels, with resistance at the $223.51 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2:1), $225.20 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2:1), $225.73 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2:1) & $226.50/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2:1) price levels.

DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF dropped -2.46% last week, as even blue chip stocks were displeased & showing weakness in the wake of the FOMC decision.

Their RSI is climbing higher after bouncing off of the oversold 30 level last week & sits at 39.53 due to the last two sessions of the week, while their MACD is bearish & near the lower end of its histogram.

Volumes were +30.13% above the previous year’s average (4,456,000 vs. 3,424,382), which is a bearish signal given that there was only one actual bullish session on the week.

The primary difference between DIA’s week & IWM’s vs. SPY/QQQ’s is that Tuesday’s session that was supported by the 50 day moving average was on a gap down & that Thursday’s session was advancing, but that it opened higher than it closed, forming what appears as a bullish harami, but that is bearish when you consider the price action of the day.

For the sake of brevity, this week watch for the impending 10 & 50 day moving average bearish crossover, which will likely push prices lower to close the window created by the US election’s gap up.

Should this happen & oscillators get stretched out lower, keep an eye out for an emerging head & shoulders pattern with the $431.69/share from October being the left shoulder.

There isn’t as much support nearby for DIA vs. IWM, but given that DIA is the blue chip index it may not matter much, given that the component stocks are names that are most likely to be bought & held over the long-term anyways.

In the event of declines, it is worthwhile assessing the strength of their support levels using the table below & the ratios contained in it in order to gauge when market participants may step in to stop losses.

DIA has support at the $428.40 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.4:1), $414.99 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3:1), $413.73 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3:1) & $410.53/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 9:1) price levels, with resistance at the $431.69 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.4:1), $433.64 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.6:0*), $435.08 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $443.32/share (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

The Week Ahead

It looks to be a quiet holiday week ahead!

Monday the week kicks off with Consumer Confidence, Durable-Goods Orders & Durable-Goods minus transportation data at 8:30 am, followed by New Home Sales at 10 am.

There are no earnings reports scheduled for Monday, Tuesday or Wednesday & Tuesday the market closes at 1pm.

Tuesday & Wednesday have no major data announcements as it is the Christmas Holiday.

Initial Jobless Claims data are released Thursday morning at 8:30 am.

Friday winds the week down with Advanced U.S. Trade Balance in Goods, Advanced Retail Inventories & Advanced Wholesale Inventories data at 8:30 am.

There are no earnings reports on Thursday or Friday this week either.

See you back here next week!

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM OR DIA AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF gained +0.87% last week, while the VIX closed at 12.77, indicating an implied one day move of +/-0.81% & an implied one month move of +/-3.69%.

Their RSI is approaching the overbought mark & currently sits at 69.86, while their MACD is bullish, but the histogram is beginning to wane

Volumes were -45.47% lower than the previous year’s average (32,290,000 vs. 59,219,960), as market participants continue to tread cautiously so close to all-time high prices for SPY.

Things are beginning to look like the latter portion of a Jenga game with the low volumes & tight daily ranges that we have been seeing over the past few weeks.

Monday the week began on a quiet note, resulting in a low volume session that ended as a doji, indicating that there was uncertainty, but temporary equilibrium for SPY’s price, with the day’s upper shadow indicating that there was small appetite for the upside.

Tuesday featured more of the same, when the day closed as another doji candle that had a tight range for the session on even less volume than Monday.

Wednesday is where most of the week’s advancing price action came from, on account of the gap up open that came on the strongest volume of the week.

Sentiments returned to cautious on Thursday though & some profits from the gap’s jump were taken, as the session ended in a bearish harami pattern with Wednesday’s candle, indicating that there was fear on the horizon.

This carried into Friday, whose candle resembled that of the ones from earlier in the week & the week ended with a gravestone doji on a +0.19% gain for the day.

This week all eyes will be on Wednesday & Thursday for CPI & PPI data as it will lend clues as to what direction interest rates will move in (or stay the same) in the coming month.

A key thing to watch will be should there be a 1% decline for SPY whether or not the $600.17/share support level holds up, as otherwise the next support level is not until $586.12, which is another -2.34% (totaling ~3.4%).

Another reason that this is important is because in the event that that level does not hold up, prices would likely pass bearishly through the 50 day moving average as well, which would open SPY up to test the window that was created in early November when prices gapped up over the 10 day moving average.

Despite the low volume the market was able to continue on & set a new all-time high last week, but that waning volume sentiment is indicating that there is a lack of confidence at the moment in SPY & it is difficult to see it climbing much higher without more volume & participation.

Due to the nature of SPY’s low volume while near all-time highs there is not much point in examining upside potential from where they sit currently & it is more important to understand how SPY may fall in the event of a decline/profit taking.

SPY has support at the $602.47 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $600.17 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $586.12 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.4:0*) & $585.74/share (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.4:0*) price levels, with resistance at the $609.07/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price level.

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF advanced +3.28%, as investors favored the tech-heavy index the most out of the major four index ETFs.

Their RSI closed at the overbought level of 70 on Friday, while their MACD remains bullish in the wake of Wednesday’s gap up session.

Volumes were -40.9% lower than the prior year’s average (22,354,000 vs. 37,825,929), as market participants were just as wary of QQQ as they were of jumping into SPY.

This should be noted, as SPY’s week featured weak volume but smaller daily ranges covered by their candlesticks compared to the broader sessions of QQQ’s week.

Monday kicked the week off on a gap up open for QQQ, which continued rising on the week’s second highest volume.

Tuesday volumes decreased but the advances continued for QQQ as prices were able to break back above the $515/share price level.

Wednesday opened on a gap up for QQQ much like it did for SPY on the week’s strongest volume, before profit taking commenced on Thursday & QQQ declined.

Friday the week closed on a high note with a new all-time high being set.

This coming week will hope to see higher volumes for QQQ, as it is difficult to continue climbing with such weak participation at all-time highs.

Even if QQQ’s price can manage to notch another all-time high this week, the current environment’s sentiment is running on fumes & is not sustainable for much longer.

QQQ’s next support level is currently -2% below Friday’s closing price, which is just above their 10 day moving average.

Should those break down there aren’t any support levels for an additional -2.5%, at which point price would be wedged between the resistance of the 10 day moving average & the support of the 50 DMA.

It should be noted that most of the support levels for the first ~8-9% of declines from QQQ’s closing price on Friday have not faced significant seller pressure over the past ~2 years, which will be something to be mindful of in the event of retests in the near-future.

QQQ has support at the $515.58 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $514.04 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $502.81 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2:0*) & $501.35/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2:0*) price levels, with resistance at the $526.72/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF declined -1.22% last week, as the small cap index was the most shunned out of the major four.

Their RSI is currently at 58.53, while their MACD crossed over the signal line bearishly on Thursday.

Volumes were -33.9% lower than the prior year’s average (21,508,000 vs. 32,537,075), as market participants were even unenthusiastic about the small cap index.

Given that IWM declined on low volume it is not as bad of a sentiment reading than QQQ who advanced on even lower volume, but it is still a signal to take caution.

Monday set the stage for the week of declines, as the highest volume of the week came on a session that resulted in a hanging man candle whose lower shadow extended all the way down to the $240/share level.

Tuesday IWM’s slide continued as the session opened lower, attempted to reach the open of Monday’s session but was unable to & the rest of the session was spent in decline.

Wednesday the bleeding was temporarily halted, but there was a lot of uncertainty in the air given the week’s lowest volume session also resulted in a spinning top candle whose lower shadow was perched atop of the support of the 10 day moving average.

Thursday that support gave way shortly after the session’s open & the $237.50/share level was briefly touched, but IWM was able to close just above it, leading into Friday’s gap up open that proceeded to decline as the day wore on.

Friday’s session formed a bearish harami pattern with Thursday’s, which is troubling entering a new week when the nearest support level for IWM is -4.64% below their closing price on Friday.

The good news for IWM is that the 50 day moving average and another support level reside in the $227-228/share price range, but the bad news is that over the past ~2 years there has been 2 Sellers for every Buyer at this price level.

This is particularly bad for IWM here as this price level upon being reached has often resulted in further declines, which will be something to be mindful of in the event of a retest.

The good news in the event of a retest is that there are lots of support touch points below it, but to reach those levels the price would have to pass below the 50 day moving average’s support, placing it then below both the 10 & 50 DMAs.

IWM has support at the $227.85 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2:1), $227.82 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2:1), $227.17 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2:1) & $225.87/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2:1) price levels, with resistance at the $240.43 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $242.39 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $244.98/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF dipped -0.65%, as the blue chip index was unable to turn a positive week last week.

Their RSI is trending back towards neutral & sits currently at 61.64, while their MACD is set to cross over the signal line bearishly on Monday.

Volumes were -31% lower than the previous year’s average (2,388,000 vs. 3,460,000) & market participants were even not diving into the safety of blue chip names near these all-time highs across the major four indexes.

One thing that jumps out immediately when looking at DIA’s chart is that Friday’s close occurred below the support of the 10 day moving average while the price still sits on the island that formed two weeks ago.

Much like IWM, DIA started the week off on a foreboding note with a session that opened higher than Friday’s close, tested slightly higher briefly, before ultimately declining.

Tuesday followed suit & DIA continued lower, but managed to close down only midway through the day’s total range.

Wednesday showed some brief optimism by opening on a gap up, but uncertainty was the story coming into the close as the session ended as a spinning top candle on the highest volume of the week & a new all-time high was hit for DIA.

Thursday the declines continued, although there was an attempt made to reach the high of Wednesday & set another all-time high, but market participants did not want to assume more risk.

Risk-off sentiment continued into the weekend, as the third highest volume of the week came on Friday’s declining session that broke through the support of the 10 DMA.

This week will be important to keep an eye on the window that created the island that DIA’s been trading on for the past two weeks or so, as now that it has broken through the support of the 10 DMA it looks set to potentially fill the gap.

Another area of interest to observe is that if the $444.60/share support level is broken through in the coming days, the next support level doesn’t occur for another -2.6% (-3.6% total from Friday’s closing price).

If that breaks down then price will enter into a range where there have historically been some strong Sellers:Buyers until the $414.92/share support level is reached.

As with all of the others above, when this close to all-time highs & on such weak volumes there is not much point to describing potential upside activity.

DIA has support at the $444.60 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $432.94 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.6:0*), $432.01 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.6:0*) & $429.64/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.4:1) price levels, with resistance at the $448.08 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: ) & $451.55/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

The Week Ahead

Monday kicks the week off with Wholesale Inventories data at 10 am.

Hello Group reports earnings before Monday’s opening bell, followed by Toll Brothers, Braze, C3.ai, Casey’s General, MongoDB, Oracle, Phreesia, Vail Resorts & Yext after the session’s close.

NFIB Optimism Index data is released Tuesday at 6 am, followed by U.S. Productivity (revision) data at 8:30 am.

Tuesday morning features earnings reports from Academy Sports + Outdoors, AutoZone, Designer Brands, Ferguson, G-III Apparel, Ollie’s Bargain Outlet & United Natural Foods, with Dave & Buster’s, GameStop & Stitch Fix reporting after the closing bell.

Wednesday brings us Consumer Price Index, CPI Year-over-Year, Core CPI & Core CPI Year-over-Year data at 8:30 am, followed by Month U.S. Federal Budget data at 2pm.

Cognyte Software, Photronics & REV Group report earnings on Wednesday morning, with Adobe, Nordson & Oxford Industries reporting after the session closes.

Initial Jobless Claims, Producer Price Index, Core PPI, PPI Year-over-Year & Core PPI Year-over-Year data are all scheduled to be released Thursday morning at 8:30 am.

Thursday morning’s earnings report comes from Ciena, with Broadcom, Costco Wholesale & RH reporting after the closing bell.

Friday winds the week down with Import Price Index & Import Price Index minus Fuel data at 8:30 am & there are no noteworthy earnings reports scheduled for the day.

See you back here next week!

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM OR DIA AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF added +1.67% this past week, while the VIX closed at 15.24 indicating an implied one day move of +/-0.96% & an implied one month move of +/-4.41%.

Their RSI is trending upward towards the overbought level again, currently sitting at 61.66, while their MACD is signaling that it’s poised for an early week bullish crossover before the Thanksgiving holiday.

Volumes were still weak, coming in -26.49% below the prior year’s average level (44,300,000 vs. 60,260,437), as market participants are still feeling a bit uneasy near these all-time high price levels.

The week started off on a optimistic, but uncertain note, as Monday’s session resulted in a spinning top that formed a bullish harami pattern with Friday’s candle on very light volume.

Tuesday opened lower but powered higher to form a bullish engulfing pattern with Monday’s candle & the volume was a bit higher, but still not the level of enthusiasm that is needed to continue to a new all-time high.

Wednesday’s session resulted in a dragonfly doji, indicating uncertainty given that it retraced the entire range of the prior day’s candle, but ultimately the day was able to close higher at the top of the session’s candle by the open.

Thursday opened on a gap up in line with the 10 day moving average’s resistance, tried higher but ultimately retraced below the close of Wednesday’s session before rallying back to close as a doji candle by the 10 DMA.

Friday opened in line with Thursday’s close but was able to close slightly higher, although indicating hesitancy & uncertainty as the low volume session closed as a spinning top candle.

This week it should be kept in mind that there are only 3.5 trading days, as Thursday is Thanksgiving & the market is closed & Friday is a half day.

Wednesday has a lot of data announcements & there are some earnings calls scheduled for early in the week that may impact SPY’s performance.

With that in mind, SPY looks primed to straddle the 10 DMA & trade around it on light, holiday week volume.

It is unlikely to get the volume needed to force a retest of the all-time high that sits ~1% above Friday’s close & if it was unable to be reached last week it seems less likely to happen on a short week when folks are traveling.

To the downside it will be interesting to see how the $590/share level holds up, given Tuesday’s close there & Wednesday’s doji candle resting right above it, but should it test any lower the chart below lists SPYs price level:volume sentiment over the past ~2 years.

SPY has support at the $593.01 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $586.12 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.4:0*), $583.86 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.86:1) & $579.21/share (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.1:1) price levels, with resistance at the $600.17/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price level.

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF that tracks the NASDAQ 100 gained +1.86% last week, as investors were slightly more eager to pile into the tech heavy index than the S&P 500 components.

Their RSI is trending above the neutral level of 50 & sits at 56.45 but has flattened out recently, while their MACD is bearish but showing signs of a potential bullish crossover before the end of the week if the histogram shows weakness on Monday or Tuesday.

Volumes were the weakest of the major index ETFs, coming in -27.27% below the previous year’s average level (27.928,000 vs. 38,399,048), as investors are still not feeling confident about hopping back into the pool so close to all-time highs.

QQQ’s week began on a similar note to SPY’s with Monday’s candle forming a bullish harami with Friday’s & closing as a spinning top on low volume, indicating that there was a bit of uncertainty in the air.

Tuesday opened lower but was able to close higher, ending the day forming a bullish engulfing pattern with Monday’s candle, but again on weak volume.

Wednesday opened lower & tested lower than Tuesday’s lows, but was able to close in line with the open as a dragonfly doji, indicating that there was still a little upside appetite, but that people were taking profits throughout the day too.

Thursday opened on a gap higher to just beneath the resistance of the 10 day moving average, tested almost as low as Wednesday’s session’s low, but was able to rally higher to form a hanging man candle that closed lower than it opened on the highest volume session of the week.

It appears that a lot of market participants were taking profits those two days based on how low they tested, but bulls managed to push their closing prices back to the high end of the days’ ranges.

Friday left the week off on a note of bearish uncertainty for QQQ, as while the session advanced +0.16%, it resulted in a spinning top candle that was unable to break above the resistance of the 10 DMA, which has now curled over & is moving downward towards the price.

Much like SPY, QQQ is unlikely to make a run at their all-time high this week due to the short week & anticipated low volume that accompanies a holiday.

They’re likely to trade around the 10 DMA on light volume all week, pending no major news or bad data releases occur.

In the event of decline, QQQ has more local support levels than SPY which may control the rate of descent, but should that happen investors should begin watching for a bearish head & shoulders pattern, particularly given their 10 DMA is even looking like one.

QQQ has support at the $502.81 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2:0*), $501.35 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2:0*), $494.49 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 17.25:1) & $493.70/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 17.25:1) price levels, with resistance at the $506.17 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) $515.58/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF advanced +4.5% last week, as investors were eager to pile into the small cap index compared to the other three major index ETFs.

Their RSI is trending towards the overbought 70 level & currently sits at 64.85, while their MACD crossed over bullishly on Friday, but the histogram level is quite low which leaves room for skepticism on the strength of the crossover.

Volumes were also weak, coming in -20.59% below the prior year’s average level (26,200,000 vs. 32,994,484), as even small cap investors are feeling nervous near their all-time high.

Monday kicked the week off with bullish uncertainty, as the session created a bullish harami cross with Friday’s candle on some of the week’s highest volume.

Bullish engulfing Tuesday also hit IWM, as despite opening on a gap down the bulls came back & force the session to close above the high of Monday’s session.

Wednesday’s candle would be described as a hanging man if it occurred in an actual uptrend & not in the wake of a two day reversal, but market participants showed that there was still plenty of negative sentiment in the air, given the size of the lower shadow.

Thursday opened higher, signaled that there was some downside sentiment (or near-term profit taking) on the lower shadow, but was able to power through the 10 day moving average & close above it as there was a lot of advancing volume relative to every day that week but Monday.

Friday opened on a gap higher, briefly tested lower but the $235/share mark held strong & propelled IWM to close higher for a +1.85% gain on the day.

This week will be focused on whether or not the support of the 10 day moving avera

IWM has support at the $233.84 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $227.85 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2:1), $227.17 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2:1) & $226.40/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2:1) price levels, with resistance at the $242.39/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF climbed +1.99% last week, as the blue chip index was the second most favored major index ETF of the big four.

Their RSI is trending towards overbought & currently sits at 65.96, while their MACD crossed over bullishly on Friday, but the histogram level is rather muted, calling to question the strength of the signal.

Volumes were +28.8% above the previous year’s average (4,492,000 vs. 3,487,619), as investors were still feeling eager to get into the component names of the blue chip index.

Monday began the week on a note of muted uncertainty, as the day resulted in a doji candle for a slight decline on very weak volume.

Tuesday opened on a major gap down, but throughout the session bulls came in & were able to force the closing price above the open, but still for a declining session.

Wednesday was a tug of war between bulls & bears after opening on a gap up, as there was still plenty of bearish sentiment out there based on the size of the candle’s lower shadow, but the day managed to rally higher.

This set up the highest volume session of the week on Thursday, where the day opened on a gap up, there was some profit taking based on the lower shadow before powering through the 10 DMAs resistance to close above it.

The upper shadow on the day’s candle also indicated that there were market participants interested in seeing DIA continue its climb, which is what happened on Friday as another gap up session left DIA within $1.44 of its all-time high.

Based on the high volume heading into the weekend & the recent MACD bullish crossover it appears that DIA will at least break above its all-time high this week.

This brings with it a set of problems though, as once the oscillators overheat there will be profit taking from that batch of high volume we saw on Thursday & Friday & there are not that many nearby support levels for DIA.

In the event of a new ATH there would be support at $444.60 & at where ever the 10 day moving average winds up by then, as it will continue marching higher along with the price.

Another key area to keep an eye on in the event of a decline is that window that was created by the post-election gap up, as if the $429.64/share support level breaks down that will likely begin to fill, especially if prices enter the $424-427.99/share zone where Sellers have outpaced Buyers at a rate of 1.67:1 over the past 3-4 years.

DIA has support at the $437.68 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $432.94 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.6:0*), $429.64 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.4:1) & $426.62/share (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.67:1) price levels, with resistance at the $444.60/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

The Week Ahead

Monday has no major economic announcements scheduled.

Bath & Body Works & Diana Shipping report earnings Monday morning before the opening bell, with Agilent Technologies, Central Garden, Enanta Pharmaceuticals, Fluence, Leslie’s, NJ Resources, Semtech, Woodward & Zoom Video Communications reporting after the closing bell.

S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index (20 Cities) is released Tuesday at 9 am, Consumer Confidence & New Home Sales data comes out at 10 am & the Minutes of he Fed’s FOMC meeting are due out at 2pm.

Tuesday’ morning’s earnings kick off with Abercrombie & Fitch, American Woodmark, Analog Devices, Bank of Nova Scotia, Best Buy, Burlington Stores, Dick’s Sporting Goods, Embecta, J.M. Smucker, Kohl’s, Macy’s & Titan Machinery, followed by Dell Technologies, Ambarella, Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Autodesk, CrowdStrike, Guess?, HP Inc., Mitek Systems, Nordstrom, Nutanix, Urban Outfitters & Workday after the closing bell.

Wednesday is going to be a busy one on the data-front, starting with Initial Jobless Claims, Durable-Goods Orders, Durable-Goods minus Transportation, Advanced U.S. Trade Balance In Goods, Advanced Retail Inventories, Advanced Wholesale Inventories & GDP (first revision) are all due out at 8:30 am, followed by Personal Income (nominal), Personal Spending (nominal), PCE Index, PCE (year-over-year), Core PCE Index, Core PCE (year-over-year) & Pending Home Sales at 10 am.

Patterson Companies reports earnings before Wednesday’s opening bell, with Kroger & Zumiez set the report after the session’s close.

Thursday is Thanksgiving so there is no data to be released.

Friday brings us the Chicago Business Barometer (PMI) report at 9:45 am & there will be no earnings reports released.

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM OR DIA AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***