SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF gained +1.39% last week, mostly attributed to a gap up session on Wednesday, as the 10 day moving average continued to show strong support (last week’s note discussed this here).
SPY ETF – SPDR S&P 500 ETF’s Technical Performance Over The Past Year
Their RSI has trended into overbought territory following the midweek gap up & currently sits at 72.8, while their MACD is currently still bullish.
Volumes were -22.21% below average last week compared to the year prior (63,559,973 vs. 81,704,876), as market participants have become anxious as the S&P 500 sits at all-time highs.
SPY kicked the week off on Monday with a declining session on the heaviest volume of the week,a and despite testing lower than they opened, the 10 day moving average was able to hold up as support & the candle’s real body set the stage for the advances of the rest of the week.
Tuesday showed some hesitancy, but ultimately marched slightly higher on low volume, with the candle’s real body concentrated on the upper end of the candlestick, signaling that there was still a muted appetite for higher prices.
SPY gapped up on Wednesday, for the second highest volume session of the week & continued to be supported by the 10 day moving average, but Thursday’s spinning top candle began to show that uncertainty had begun creeping into investors’ minds.
Friday closed the week out on a +0.58% advancing session, however much like the rest of the week, volumes were low & the session’s upper shadow is taller than the lower shadow, signaling that market participants are beginning to lose steam & pump the brakes.
Their Average True Range has cooled off in February, as there has not been much volatility, but it is beginning to flatten out, which may indicate that there is some volatility on the horizon in the near-term.
Much like last week, all eyes this week will be on the strength of the support from the 10 DMA, as well as the high of Friday’s session as it marks the new all-time high.
SPY has support at the $493.24 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $477.55 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $475.20 (50 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $466.43/share (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels, with no current resistance levels as they are at all-time highs.
SPY ETF’s Price Level:Volume Sentiment For The Past 2-3 Years
QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF climbed +1.87% last week, as Wednesday’s session spurred strength that would last into the end of Friday’s session.
QQQ ETF – Invesco QQQ Trust ETF’s Technical Performance Over The Past Year
Their RSI is overbought at 71, and their MACD is still bullish following the week’s advances.
Volumes were -30.27% below average compared to the year prior (35,983,751 vs. 51,606,828), which gives cause for concern as the highest volume session of last week was Monday’s decline.
Monday kicked the week off in line with where Friday left off, with the support of the 10 day moving average being tested, but the close was ultimately just below Friday’s close, resulting in a dragonfly doji, which set the stage for the moves higher later in the week.
Tuesday followed in the same range as the prior two sessions, with the 10 DMA’s support held up before a gap up open on Wednesday kick started the rally into the end of the week, but the spinning top candle implies that there is a bit of uncertainty still as we sit near all-time highs.
Thursday continued the theme of uncertainty, with a doji candle whose real body was concentrated near the lower end of the candlestick on the weakest volume session of the day.
It is also of note that the sentiment was ultimately bearish on Thursday, as the day opened higher than Wednesday, but closed below where it opened, signaling that there was some profit taking taking place.
Friday saw investors eager to take risk into the weekend with a gap up session that resulted in +0.98% on the day, with volume similar to Wednesday’s level.
QQQ’s Average True Range has flattened out after the small range sessions of the past week, signaling that volatility has quieted down recently, which will be something to watch for when it begins to climb again & the markets see an increase in v0latility.
Another area to watch again this week is how strong the 10 DMA holds up as support, as well as if there are any new all-time highs hit, which seems probable given that investors are anticipating NVDA’s earnings call a week from Wednesday.
QQQ has support at the $429.85 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $427.92 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $416.79 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $412.92/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.85:1) price levels, with no current resistance levels as they are at all-time highs.
QQQ ETF’s Price Level:Volume Sentiment Over The Past 2-3 Years
IWM ETF – iShares Russell 2000 ETF’s Technical Performance Over The Past Year
Their RSI is trending higher but currently sits at 59, while their MACD has just completed a bullish crossover following today’s gap up session.
Volumes were +10.46% above average last week compared to the year prior (37,361,510 vs. 33,824,176), primarily driven by Monday’s declining session & Friday’s advance into the weekend.
Monday tested the support of the 50 day moving average, breaking lower but settling around the level on a spinning top, signaling uncertainty, but with the highest volume of the week it showed that there was some eagerness to both take profits from late last week & to also hop into the pool.
Tuesday opened below the 50 DMA, but was able to climb above its resistance throughout the day & close higher, but the low volumes of the session did not inspire much confidence in the strength of the move.
Wednesday saw IWM open higher on a gap, test lower all the way to below the 50 DMA, but recover during the day’s session to end on a decline, but with the 50 DMA acting as support.
On Thursday IWM opened above the 50 DMA, tested below it briefly before roaring back & advancing on the day to close above the resistance of the 10 day moving average.
IWM gapped higher on Friday, leaving both the 10 & 50 DMA’s in its wake, on the second highest volume of the week, signaling an increased appetite for risk heading into the weekend.
Their Average True Range has flattened out & currently sits in the middle of its range, indicating that there has been an average amount of volatility for IWM recently.
In the coming week it will be interesting to keep an eye on how volumes fluctuate in relation to this past week’s movements, as well as how strong the support/resistance levels of the 10 & 50 day moving averages hold up.
IWM has support at the $197.10 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.21:1), $195.40 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.46:1), $193.67 (50 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2.25:1) & $190.27/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.57:1) price levels, with resistance at the $199.41 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.67:1) & $205.49/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 5:1) price levels.
IWM ETF’s Price Level:Volume Sentiment Over The Past 2-3 Years
DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF stumbled forward +0.08% this past week, faring the worst of the major indexes, as it looks that investors have run out of appetite for the larger cap names.
DIA ETF – SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF’s Technical Performance Over The Past Year
Their RSI is trending towards neutral following the recent price consolidation & currently sits at 65.72, while their MACD is currently bullish, but laying relatively flat, which is not an indicator of strength.
Volumes were -12.92% below average last week compared to the year prior (3,026,681 vs. 3,475,833), as enthusiasm was put on hold near these all-time high levels, and it should be noted that Monday & Friday had the highest volumes of the week by a significant amount, which shows bearishness is beginning to creep into one of the most consistent indexes.
Monday started off with declining session that tested the 10 day moving average, with Tuesday advancing from Monday’s close & forming a bullish harami pattern that set the stage for Wednesday’s gap up session.
Wednesday & Thursday were both doji candle’s indicating indecision, although Thursday’s was a dragonfly doji which can often lead to more advances following it.
However, the mood became risk off on Friday, but the day resulted in a spinning top candle, indicating that there is still a great deal of uncertainty around DIA’s near-term prospects.
Their ATR has begun to fall indicating that there has been a lack of volatility & that most days have had small ranges in the past couple of weeks, and it will be important to keep an eye out to see if there are any upticks in volatility in the coming weeks, as that will spur greater profit taking following the recent ascent of the past 3-4 months.
The 10 day moving average will also be something to watch, as should its support be broken the next true support level will become the 50 DMA, which is still advancing towards the price.
There may not be much sturdy footing for DIA in the event of a decline, which would make sense should market participants want to begin taking profits from the past 3-4 months.
DIA has support at the $384.98 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $374.48 (50-Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $353.33 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.22:1) & $348.47/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.3:1) price levels, with resistance at the $387.78/share (52-Week High; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price level.
DIA ETF’s Price Level:Volume Sentiment For The Past 3-4 Years
The Week Ahead
Monday kicks the week off with the Monthly US Federal Budget at 2 pm.
Arista Networks, Avis Budget, Blackbaud, Brighthouse Financial, Cadence Design Systems, Federal Realty, Goodyear Tire, Hudson Pacific Properties, Lattice Semiconductor, Monday.com, Medpace, Otter Tail Power, Principal Financial Group, Service Co, Teradata, Trimble, Vornado Realty Trust, Waste Management, Watts Water Technologies & ZoomInfo are all scheduled to report earnings on Monday.
Consumer Price Index, Core CPI, CPI Year-over-Year & Core CPI Year-over-Year will all be reported on Tuesday at 8:30 am.
Cisco, Albemarle, Altice USA, American Water Works, Antero Midstream, Antero Resources, AppLovin, Arch Capital, Avient, Canadian Natural Resources, Cenovus Energy, Ceva, CF Industries, Charles River, Chefs’ Warehouse, Chemours, Chefs’ Warehouse, CME Group, CNH Industrial, Conduent, Energy Transfer, Equinix, Fastly, First Majestic Silver, Four Corners Property Trust, Franco-Nevada, Generac Holdings, Global Payments, Hecla Mining, Herbalife Nutrition, HubSpot, Informatica, IQVIA, JFrog, Kinross Gold, Kornit Digital, Kraft Heinz, Lithia Motors, Louisiana-Pacific, Magnolia Oil & Gas, Manitowoc, Manulife Financial, Martin Marietta Materials, NerdWallet, Nu Skin, Occidental Petroleum, Owens Corning, Paramount Group, Parsons, Patterson-UTI, QuantumScape, Royal Gold, Ryder System, SAGE Therapeutics, Suncor Energy, Sunoco, Taylor Morrison Home, Tower Semiconductor, TripAdvisor, Twilio, Upwork, Veeco Instruments, Waste Connections, Williams Cos & Wyndham Hotels & Resorts are all scheduled to report earnings on Wednesday.
Thursday will be busy on the data front, starting at 8:30 am when we get Initial Jobless Claims, Empire State Manufacturing Survey data, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey data, Import Price Index, Import Price Index Minus Fuel, U.S. Retail Sales & Retail Sales minus Autos, followed by Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization data at 9:15 am & Home Builder Confidence Index data at 10 am.
Housing Starts, Building Permits, Producer Price Index, Core PPI, PPI Year-over-Year & Core PPI Year-over-Year are released on Friday at 8:30 am, followed by Consumer Sentiment (prelim) at 10 am.
Friday’s earnings reports include American Axle, Barnes Group, Cinemark, DT Midstream, Healthcare Realty, Portland General Electric, PPL Corp, TC Energy, TreeHouse Foods & Vulcan Materials.
See you back here next week!
*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM OR DIA AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***
SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF advanced +1.42% last week, faring the best of all of the major indexes for the week.
SPY ETF – SPDR S&P 500 ETF’s Technical Performance Over The Past Year
Their RSI is 68.83 (per Friday’s close) & approaching overbought conditions, while their MACD is still bullish, but lost some steam following last Tuesday & Wednesday’s sessions.
Volumes were +6.52% above average last week compared to the year prior (87,398,320 vs. 82,048,124), led by Wednesday’s gap down session that broke through the support of the 10 day moving average.
Friday’s session featured the second highest volumes of the week on a day with a +1.05% gain going into the weekend, but that isn’t convincing enough that a bullish sentiment has returned to markets.
Monday the week kicked off with an advancing session following the Friday before’s doji close signaling uncertainty heading into the weekend.
Tuesday’s session returned to the theme of uncertainty, with a doji candle marking the session that was contained near the top of Monday’s candle’s real body & upper shadow.
Wednesday featured a gap down that broke through the support of the 10 day moving average, indicating that investor sentiment is waning, particularly as it had the strongest volumes of the week, mostly due to Chairman Powell’s press conference following the interest rate decision.
Thursday opened higher & climbed back through the 10 DMA, closing the day slightly above the real body of Wednesday’s candle & leading to Friday’s advancing session heading into the weekend.
SPY’s Average True Range has been steadily climbing since the last week of January, signaling that volatility in the index is heating up.
Two areas to watch in the week ahead are the upper shadow on Friday’s candle, as it may be the head to the bearish head & shoulders pattern that we have written about over the past few weeks, but the markets have continued to defy, as well as the 10 DMA.
Should the support of the 10 day moving average give way, there is -3.4% from the current price to the next lowest level of support.
Given that we have been setting new 52-week & all-time highs recently, there is limited volume data for the price levels below that are within a 7.76% range of the Friday’s closing price.
However, as time passes & more trades take place in these price ranges there will be more meaningful data to replace the NULL values.
Also note that due to the recent setting of 52-week highs the higher levels with data will be skewed towards buyers until a consolidation has taken place, which may make them appear stronger than they actually are.
SPY has support at the $487.77 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $477.55 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $470.80 (50 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $466.43/share (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), with no resistance levels over the past year as they are at a new 52-week high.
SPY ETF’s Price Level:Volume Sentiment Analysis For The Past 2-3 Years
QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF added +1.23% over the past week, weathering through the losses of Wednesday & Thursday’s sessions.
QQQ ETF – Invesco QQQ Trust ETF’s Technical Performance Over The Past Year
Their RSI is trending back towards overbought levels & currently sits at 65.77 after Friday’s close, while their MACD is hanging on bullishly but approaching the signal line for a bearish crossover.
Volumes were -3.94% below average last week compared to the year prior (50,007,040 vs. 52,056,892), looking similar to SPY’s in terms of Wednesday’s bearish session being the week’s heaviest volume, followed by Friday’s advancing session.
Monday kicked the week off on a bullish note, advancing following the Friday prior’s risk off into the weekend move.
Tuesday’s candles created a bearish harami pattern with Monday’s, which was confirmed by Wednesday’s declines on a gap down that broke the support of the 10 day moving average.
Thursday nudged higher, but was still contained by the resistance of the 10 DMA, which Friday’s session used as a support level on a gap up open, briefly tested below (lower shadow) & resulted in a +1.65% gain on the day.
Given that lack of volume & the way volumes were dispersed throughout the week Friday’s session does not look like a signal of strength, nor a green light for prices to begin going higher from here.
QQQ’s Average True Range has also been steadily climbing since late January, indicating that volatility has been increasing & will likely continue to do so in the coming weeks.
Much like SPY, the same two variables will be something to keep a close eye on.
If the support of the 10 DMA is able to hold up, there is increased likelihood of setting a new 52-week high & creating a new potential head in the bearish head & shoulders situation mentioned prior.
Else, Friday’s upper shadow will be the ultimate resistance line in the weeks that move forward.
Like SPY, QQQ’s price levels near the 52-week high have limited data to work with, leaving the table below filled with NULL values until there is a 3% decline.
Recall that the data on the outskirts of highs/lows is often skewed & it will be interesting to see how the Sellers:Buyers data changes the table below in the event of consolidation.
QQQ has support at the $424.25 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $412.92 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.85:1), $404.98 (50 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 5.2:1) & $395.34/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.4:0*), with no past year resistance levels as they are currently at a 52-week high.
QQQ ETF’s Price Level:Volume Sentiment Analysis For The Past 2-3 Years
IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF declined -0.8%, as investors were less enthused with the small cap names than larger market cap stocks this past week.
IWM ETF – iShares Russell 2000 ETFs’s Technical Performance Over The Past Year
Their RSI is currently trending downwards, but remains neutral at 50.30, while their MACD is bearish & trending downwards.
Volumes were +44.66% above average last week compared to the year prior (48,557,260 vs. 33,565,873), led by Wednesday’s wide range bearish session, followed by Thursday’s advancing session that also tested down further but was supported by the 50 day moving average & Friday’s profit taking & risk off behavior moving into the weekend.
Monday kicked IWM’s week off on a bullish note, setting a new resistance level at $199.41, but Tuesday’s session resulted in a bearish harami pattern, setting the stage for the rest of the week’s declines.
The low volumes of Monday & Tuesday should be noted & taken as a sign of weakness.
Wednesday was a wide-range session downward, which led the week in volume & broke through the support of the 10 day moving average.
Thursday opened midway through Wednesday’s candle’s real body, tested below to the 50 day moving average which held up support, before rallying higher & closing just beneath the resistance of the 10 day moving average.
Friday wound the week down on an uncertain note, as the day’s candle opened lower than Thursday’s close, tested lower before rallying to test higher & closing above the open but with a large upper shadow.
This is showing that the direction of IWM will likely be determined by whether the resistance of the 10 day moving average or the support of the 50 day moving average gives out first.
Interestingly, their Average True Range has been declining after spiking up a bit in late-January, signaling a slowdown in volatility recently, and marking uncertainty as we get deeper into earnings season.
IWM has support at the $191.95 (50-Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.57:1), $191.53 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.57:1), $190.27 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.57:1) & $187.67/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.06:1), with resistance at the $195.87 (10-Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.46:1), $196.34 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.21:1), $197.10 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.21:1) & $199.41/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.67:1) price levels.
IWM ETF’s Price Level:Volume Sentiment Analysis For The Past 2-3 Years
DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF gained +1.4% over the past week, just shy of SPY showing investor appetite was favoring larger cap stocks last week, mostly on account of earnings reports.
DIA ETF – SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF’s Technical Performance Over The Past Year
Their RSI is trending back towards overbought levels & is at 69.82 per Friday’s close, while their MACD is still slightly bullish, but not signaling strength.
Volumes were -3.04% below average last week compared to the year prior (3,390,540 vs. 3,496,925), as investors were not overly eager to jump into the pool near 52-week highs.
One thing to note though s that the support of DIA’s 10 day moving average held up, which shows that investors do feel more safe investing in the larger cap components of the Dow Jones Industrial Average than the other major indexes.
Monday’s session for DIA was a conservative advance, as was Tuesday’s.
Wednesday saw a declining session where the 10 day moving average held strong & kept the index afloat, while Thursday flashed signals of uncertainty with an advancing session whose real body was almost the exact same size as that of Wednesday’s candle.
Friday nudged higher 0.34%, leaving mixed signals about how market participants feel about the valuations of DIA’s components & their valuations relative to the interest rate decision that was announced on Wednesday.
As with SPY & QQQ, the 10 day moving average & how strong its support remains & the upper shadow on Friday’s session’s candle will be the main areas of focus in the coming weeks for clues into whether there will be a cool down & consolidation period, or if that resistance level becomes support for an irrational leg higher.
Since late January DIA’s Average True Range has been increasing, signaling that there is increased volatility following months of narrow-range candles in a steady ascent.
The same notes regarding 52-week highs on price levels from SPY & QQQ’s segments above also applies to the data below for DIA.
DIA has support at the $381.95 (10-Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $371.09 (50-Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $353.33 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.22:1) & $348.47/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.34:1), with no one year resistance levels as they are at a 52-week high.
DIA ETF’s Price Level:Volume Sentiment Analysis For The Past 4-5 Years
The Week Ahead
Monday the week kicks off with S&P Final U.S. Services PMI at 9:45 am, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee has a TV appearance at 10 am, along with the ISM Services data report & at 2 pm Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic gives welcoming remarks.
McDonalds, Affiliated Managers, Air Products, Allegiant Travel, Amkor, BellRing Brands, Cabot, Caterpillar, Chegg, Coherent, Crown Holdings, Estee Lauder, Fabrinet, Golub Capital, Hillenbrand, IDEXX Labs, J&J Snack Foods, Kforce, Kilroy Realty, NXP Semiconductors, ON Semiconductor, Palantir Technologies, Rambus, Simon Property Group, Simpson Manufacturing, Skyline Champion, Tyson Foods, Varonis Systems & Vertex Pharmaceuticals are all scheduled to report earnings on Monday.
Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester speaks at 12 pm on Tuesday, followed by Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari speaking at 1pm, Boston Fed President Susan Collins speaking at 2pm & Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker speaking at 7pm.
Tuesday’s earnings reports include: Eli Lilly, Advanced Energy, AGCO Corp, AllianceBernstein, Amdocs, American Financial Group, Amgen, Aramark, Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Assurant, Atmos Energy, Autohome, Carlisle Companies, CAVA Group, Centene, Check Point Software Technologies, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Cincinnati Financial, Cirrus Logic, Cognizant Technology Solutions, Cummins, DHT, Diodes, Douglas Emmett, DuPont, e.l.f. Beauty, Edwards Lifesciences, Energizer, Enphase Energy, Equitable Holdings, Essex Property, Exelixis, FirstService, Fiserv, Ford Motor, Fortinet, Freshworks, Frontier Group Holdings, Gartner, GE HealthCare, Gilead Sciences, H & R Block, Hertz Global, Himax Technologies, Jacobs Engineering, Klaviyo, KKR, Kyndryl, Lear, Linde, Lumen Technologies, Madison Square Garden Entertainment, MSG Sports, MicroStrategy, Nabors Industries, O-I Glass, Omnicom, Pan Am Silver, Precision Drilling, Prudential, Rexford Industrial Realty, Sensata Technologies, Silicon Motion, Snap, Spirit Aerosystems, Spotify Technology, Sonos, Tradeweb Markets, UBS AG, Valvoline, V.F. Corp, Werner Enterprises, Western Union, Willis Towers Watson, Xylem & Yum China.
Wednesday begins with U.S. Trade Deficit data at 8:30 am, followed by Fed Governor Adriana Kugler speaking at 11am, Boston Fed President Susan Collins speaking at 11:30 am, Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin speaking at 12:30 pm, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman speaking at 2pm, Consumer Credit & CBO Briefing on Budget & Economic Outlook data at 3pm.
Walt Disney, Adient, Alibaba Group, Allstate, Ares Capital, Arm Holdings, ASGN, Axcelis Technologies, B2Gold, Black Hills Corp, Bunge, Cameco, Carlyle Group, Confluent, CoreCivic, Coty, CVS Health, Dayforce, Emerson Electric, Encompass Health, Enersys, Envista, Equifax, Everest Group, First American Financial, FleetCor, Fox Corp, Franco-Nevada, Globe Life, GoPro, Green Plains, Griffon, Hain Celestial, Hilton, Kennametal, Kinross Gold, Knowles, Kodiak Gas Services, Manulife Financial, MasterCraft, Mattel, McKesson, MKS Instruments, Molina Healthcare, Monolithic Power, Murphy USA, National Fuel Gas, NETGEAR, New York Times, News Corp., Omega Health, O’Reilly Automotive, Paycom Software, Paycor, PayPal Holdings, Penske Automotive Group, Performance Food Group, Radian Group, Radware, Reynolds Consumer Products, Roblox, Scotts Miracle-Gro, Silicon Labs, TechTarget, Thomson Reuters, TTM Technologies, Vishay Intertechnology, XPO & Yum! Brands will all report earnings on Wednesday.
Initial Jobless Claims data is released Thursday at 8:30 am, followed by Wholesale Inventories at 10 am & Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin Speaking at 12:05pm.
Thursday’s earnings calls feature Affirm, Apollo Global Management, ArcelorMittal, Ares Management, Arrow Electronics, Asbury Automotive, AstraZeneca, Axalta Coating Systems, Baxter, Bill.com, BorgWarner, Boyd Gaming, Canadian Natural Resources, Capri Holdings, Cenovus Energy, Colliers International Group, ConocoPhillips, CyberArk Software, Dexcom, Doximity, Duke Energy, Dynatrace, Expedia Group, First Majestic Silver, FirstEnergy, Flowers Foods, Fortis, Genpact, Gildan Activewear, Harley-Davidson, Hershey Foods, Illumina, Intercontinental Exchange, The Interpublic Group of Companies, ITT, Kellanova, Kenvue, Kimco Realty, Leggett & Platt, Lincoln National, Lions Gate Entertainment, Lumentum, Masco, Mettler-Toledo, Mohawk Industries, Motorola Solutions, NNN REIT, Omnicell, Paylocity, Philip Morris International, Pinterest, PROS Holdings, Ralph Lauren, RBC Bearings, S&P Global, Snap-On, SolarWinds, Spectrum Brands, Spirit Airlines, Synaptics, T. Rowe Price, Take-Two Interactive Software, Tempur Sealy International, Tenet Healthcare, Transdigm Group, Under Armour, VeriSign, Warner Music Group, WEX, Wheaton Precious Metals & Zimmer Biomet.
Friday winds the week down with CPI Seasonal Factor Revisions at 8:30 am & Dallas Fed President Lori Logan speaking at 1:30 pm.
Algonquin Power & Utilities, AMC Networks, Catalent, Enbridge, Essent Group, Magna International, Mr. Cooper Group, Newell Brands, PepsiCo, Plains All American, Restaurant Brands International, TELUS International & W.P. Carey are all scheduled to report earnings on Friday.
See you back here next week!
*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM OR DIA AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***
SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF gained +1.21% this past week, having the second strongest week of the major indexes.
SPY ETF – SPDR S&P 500 ETF’s Technical Performance Over The Past Year
Their RSI is trending towards overbought levels again & is currently 68.23, while their MACD line is currently bearish, but trending upwards towards the signal line following the past two sessions.
Volumes were +4.46% above average this past week compared to the year prior (85,804,734 vs. 82,139,551), which emphasizes the squeezes set for 1/19 options contract expirations of Thursday & Friday’s sessions, as the three prior sessions in the week were on weak volumes.
Monday the week kicked off on a cautious & uncertain note, as the candle’s real body was near exactly the same as Friday’s & despite the session opening slightly above Friday’s close, the close was lower than the open, indicating weakness.
Tuesday continued that theme, as the day resulted in a doji candle whose upper shadow tested the closing price of Monday’s session to the upside, while also testing the support of the 10 day moving average before closing right in the middle of the day’s range.
The declines continued into Wednesday with a more bearish tone, as the day opened on a gap down below the 10 DMA, tested lower, but ultimately closed near the open at the top of the day’s range, creating a dragonfly doji & setting the stage for the reversal of fortune going into the end of the week.
Thursday opened at the 10 DMA support level, tested lower to Wednesday’s open/close area, but trudged higher & signaled that there may be some more appetite to go higher based on their small upper shadow, indicating that the squeeze was going to continue.
Sure enough, Friday showed the strongest volume of the week as shorts were covered & SPY rallied +1.25% heading into the weekend.
While a new 52-week high was set Friday, unless earnings go exceptionally well moving into next week, yesterday’s session is a candidate to be the head of the bearish head & shoulders pattern that has been emerging & mentioned in our other posts over the past few weeks.
There now is a better chance of a consolidation range appearing moving into the near future, as the support of the 10 & 50 day moving averages are now both within -4.29% of the current price.
On a note of caution though, in the event of a larger decline those moving averages will begin putting downwards pressure on SPY’s price & force them to retest the $455.98 & $450.25 support levels, which if they are unable to hold up will lead it down to the $436-437 zone where there are currently two support levels.
Currently the $440-443.99 price zone is weak in terms of support, as you can see in the chart below & there are no support levels in the $440-450 price zone.
There is currently not enough meaningful volume data for the closest levels of support for SPY due to them being at an all-time high.
Their Average True Range is moving higher slowly, indicating that volatility has begun to uptick from the quieter sessions of the month leading into the new year.
SPY has support at the $477.55 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $475.21 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $466.43 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $461.74/share (50 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels, with no resistance levels from the past year as they reached a new 52-week high on Friday.
SPY ETF’s Price Level:Volume Sentiment For The Past 1-2 Years
QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF advanced +2.84%, as investors favored the technology-heavy NASDAQ 100 names over other major indexes.
QQQ ETF – Invesco QQQ Trust ETF’s Technical Performance Over The Past Year
Their RSI is overbought at 72.09 following Thursday & Friday’s back-to-back gap up sessions.
Volumes were +8.45% above average last week compared to the year prior (56,881,446 vs. 52,450,027), like SPY most of which occurred on Thursday & Friday, although the risk off Wednesday session also saw volumes that were notably higher than Monday & Tuesday.
Monday set the stage for the declines into midweek, opening above Friday’s candle’s body, but declining to about Friday’s open, resulting in a hanging man candle, signaling further declines on the horizon.
Tuesday’s spinning top candle indicated that there was uncertainty, but the movement was to the downside, setting up Wednesday’s hammer candle, where the price temporarily broke below the 10 day moving average’s support, but ultimately closed higher than it opened, despite the open being a gap down.
This set the stage for the two following days’ gap up sessions, as price action was primarily focused higher & there was a good deal of volume.
All eyes this week will be on how the $412.92/share support level holds up, as well as how the gaps of last week hold up as well, which will receive some aid from the 10 DMA’s support.
Much like SPY, QQQ has also been signaling that a bearish head & shoulders pattern may be emerging in the medium-term, with Friday’s session currently primed to be the head & the left shoulder being the $412.92/share support level that occurred about one month ago (12/28/2023).
The 50 day moving average’s support would also aid in this, as it currently is creating a support zone in the $395-396 price level.
Should it test lower though, all eyes will be on whether or not a consolidation range is established in the $386.44-341.49/share level, like the one that QQQ traded in from June of 2023 until a mid-November gap up session that led to the most recent run up.
Due to QQQ being at an all-time high, there is too little data to assess the historic strength & weakness of buyers:sellers at their current support levels.
Their Average True Range is advancing higher, signaling that there has been a recent increase in volatility, which is expected to continue moving into this week.
QQQ has support at the $412.92 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $408.58 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $396.04 (50 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $395.34/share (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels, with no resistance levels for the past year after reaching a new 52-week high on Friday.
QQQ ETF’s Price Level:Volume Sentiment Over The Past 1-2 Years
IWM ETF – iShares Russell 2000 ETF’s Technical Performance Over The Past Year
Their RSI is trending back to neutral & currently sits at 49.68, while their MACD is bearish still in the wake of the declines that they suffered since mid-December 2023.
Volumes were +38.71% above average last week compared to the year prior (45,336,017 vs. 32,683,625), driven primarily from Friday’s squeeze rally & some early week declining sessions, which is not an indicator of strength.
Monday’s session kicked off the bearish week opening at the 10 day moving average, testing higher, but ultimately diving beneath the support of the 10 DMA & testing lower on the second strongest volume of the week.
The weakness continued Tuesday, as the session gapped down, tried to recover, but could not even make it up to the 10 DMA’s resistance & continued its bearish descent, with the lower shadow signaling that there was appetite for IWM to move even lower.
Wednesday it gapped down again, almost testing the 50 day moving average’s support level, but pushed higher & wound up closing higher than it opened, but still nowhere near the day prior’s close.
Thursday opened on a gap up in the wake of Wednesday’s price recovery & movement higher & despite testing much lower (almost down to Wednesday’s opening price) resulted in a dragonfly doji, which led to Friday’s gap up.
While there was heavy volume on Friday & average volume Thursday, the 10 day moving average’s resistance will be a key area to watch this week, particularly as the lower shadows on the past two bullish day’s candles show that there was still a great deal of bearish sentiment at these price levels.
There have been a number of consolidation ranges in the past year that may act as support zones should IWM continue its slide downward, but it will be interesting to see how historic volume sentiments hold up for this name, as IWM has many gaps on their chart, leading to skewed data.
Their Average True Range is at the midway level & flat, indicating that there is some volatility.
The price’s interactions with the constricting 10 DMA (resistance applying downward pressure) & 50 DMAs (support applying upward pressure) will prove important in the coming week, as it will dictate which way IWM moves in the near-term.
IWM has support at the $190.27 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 5:1), $187.67 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.5:1), $187.52 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.5:1) & $187.41/share (50 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.5:1) price levels, with resistance at the $193.02 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2.8:1), $196.34 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2:1), $197.10 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2:1) & $205.49/share (52-Week High; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.
IWM ETF’s Price Level:Volume Sentiment Over The Past 1-2 Years
DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF inched forward +0.72% this past week, as investor sentiment for the large cap components of the index seem to have halted after a months-long run up in price.
DIA ETF – SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF’s Technical Performance Over The Past Year
Their RSI is trending towards overbought & currently is at 66.09, while their MACD line is currently bearish, but moving closer to the signal line for a potential crossover.
Volumes were +27.69% above average this past week compared to the year prior (4,476,521 vs. 3,505,776), which like IWM, were mostly on account of Friday’s squeeze session & some selling pressure early on in the week.
Monday opened just below Friday’s close, tested much lower, but retreated back to the support of the 10 day moving average in time for the close.
Tuesday followed in the bearish sentiment, not being able to break the 10 DMAs resistance & trudged lower, with the candle’s lower shadow indicating more moves to the downside were coming.
Wednesday’s inverse hammer candle signaled that there would be near-term moves higher, particularly after it opened on a gap down, tested higher & closed above the open.
Thursday was a wide range session that was unable to beat the strength of the seller sentiment at the 10 DMAs resistance level, but Friday gapped up to open above it, briefly tested below it, before charging onwards higher to reach the new 52-week high.
Much like SPY & QQQ, DIA forming a bearish head & shoulders has also been a topic of discussion in previous articles & we will be watching to see if the head was established during Friday’s session.
Another area to watch will be the 10 DMA’s ability to remain a support level after last week’s falling apart, and once it does break down how the downwards pressure moves DIA in the coming weeks.
Should the downward pressure be applied & the 10 DMA be broken downward, the 50 DMA will become a critical support level, as it is the only support between the current price & the next support level which is a -6.6% decline from the current price.
Their Average True Range is moving higher, indicating that volatility is picking up after a month & a half of relative calm trading for DIA.
DIA has support at the $375.65 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $363.76 (50 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $353.53 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 6:1) & $348.67/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.27:1) price levels, with no resistance levels in the past year after reaching a new 52-week high on Friday.
DIA ETF’s Price Level:Volume Sentiment Over The Past 3-4 Years
The Week Ahead
The week ahead will be relatively quiet in terms of economic reports & data, but promises to be busy on the earnings report front.
Both Monday & Tuesday there are no major economic reports scheduled.
Agilysys, AGNC Investment, Brown & Brown, Independent Bank Group, TFI International (TFII), United Airlines & Zions Bancorp are all scheduled to report earnings on Monday.
On Tuesday Netflix, 3M, Baker Hughes, Canadian National Railway, D.R. Horton, General Electric, Halliburton, Intuitive Surgical, Invesco, Johnson & Johnson, Lockheed Martin, Old National Bancorp, PACCAR, Procter & Gamble, RTX, Synchrony Financial, Steel Dynamics, Stride, Teck Resources, Texas Instruments, Trustmark, Veritex Holdings, Verizon Communications & WesBanco all report earnings.
Wednesday brings us S&P Flash Services PMI & S&P Flash U.S. Manufacturing PMI data at 9:45 am.
Tesla, Abbott Labs, Agnico-Eagle Mines, Alamos, Ameriprise Financial, Amphenol, ASML, AT&T, Canadian Pacific, Cohen & Steers, Columbia Banking, Crown Castle, CSX, Elevance Health, Ethan Allen, Freeport-McMoRan, General Dynamics, International Business Machines, Kimberly-Clark, Knight-Swift, Lam Research, Monro Muffler, Packaging Corp, Plexus, Raymond James, ResMed, Sallie Mae, SAP, Seagate Technology, ServiceNow, SL Green Realty, TE Connectivity, Teledyne Tech, Textron, United Rentals, W.R. Berkley & West Fraser all are scheduled to report earnings data on Wednesday.
Q4 GDP (prelim), Initial Jobless Claims, Durable-Goods Orders, Durable-Goods Minus Transportaton, Advanced U.S. Trade Balance In Goods, Advanced Retail Inventories & Advanced Wholesale Inventories data will all be announced on Thursday at 8:30 am.
Thursday’s earnings reports include Intel, Alaska Air, American Airlines, Arthur J. Gallagher, Blackstone, Capital One, CNX Resources, Comcast, Cullen/Frost, Dow, Eagle Materials, Fair Isaac, Federated Hermes, KLA Corp, L3Harris, Marsh & McLennan, McCormick, Mobileye Global, Murphy Oil, NextEra Energy, NextEra Energy Partners, Northrop Grumman, Olin, Precision Drilling, RPC, Sherwin-Williams, STMicroelectronics, T-Mobile US, Union Pacific, Valero Energy, Virtu Financial, Visa, Western Alliance Bancorp, Western Digital, Weyerhaeuser & Xcel Energy.
All eyes will be on the American consumer to wind the week down on Friday, with Personal Income, Personal Spending, PCE Index, Core PCE Index, PCE (Year-over-Year) & Core PCE (Year-over-Year) all being reported at 8:30 am.
American Express, Autoliv, Badger Meter, Booz Allen Hamilton, Colgate-Palmolive, First Hawaiian, Fortis, Gentex, Imperial Oil, Norfolk Southern, Southside Banc & Stellar Bank wind the week down on the earnings report front on Friday.
See you back here next week!
*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM OR DIA AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***
SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF gained +1.87% over the past week, having the second strongest week out of the major indexes.
SPY ETF – SPDR S&P 500 ETF’s Technical Performance Over The Past Year
Their RSI is currently moving flatly near the overbought mark of 70 & currently sits at 65.41, while their MACD is bearish but also moving relatively flat towards the signal line, which often is an indication that there are further declines on the near-term horizon.
Volumes were -16.1% below average this week compared to the year prior (68,801,160 vs. 82,000,643), which signals a lack of enthusiasm among investors as they take a “wait & see” approach heading deeper into earnings season.
This lack of volume supporting the upwards price movement of last week confirms that there RSI & MACD “flattening” trends of the past year are likely to occur again & seem to think that next week will provide SPY with a downward catalyst.
SPY’s week began with a bullish crossover of the resistance level from the 10 day moving average, gaining back what was lost in a week of declines the week prior on a wide-range candle session.
The following day signaled further uncertainty & weakness at these levels with a bearish candle that opened above the 10 DMA, but there was appetite for slightly higher prices as it tested higher than Monday’s high, but ultimately fell through the 10 DMA’s support, as investors took some profits from the day prior’s gains.
Wednesday continued the theme of caution, as the candle’s real body lacks much of a lower shadow but does have an upper shadow, indicating that there could be room for slight advances, but market participants are still on the fence.
Thursday’s session produced a hanging man candle, an ominous signal, particularly as it tested & broke through the 10 day moving average’s support temporarily, despite opening & closing above it.
Friday the week closed out on an uncertain, but not overly bright note, as the session ended in a spinning top candle, that while bullish day-over-day, had a bearish twist to it given that the day closed lower than it opened.
SPY’s Average True Range is also trending downwards after the past week, indicating that there has been a lack of volatility & no strong trend, which typically precedes an uptick at these low levels.
Something that will be worth continuing to keep an eye on is the 50 day moving average, which is now the second support touch-point.
Given that we are at a new 52-week high, there is limited insight into how strong the 10 & 50 DMA support levels will be, which often means that sellers will be itching to take profits off of the table at these levels.
If true, that would mean that there is a risk of a -4.34% move for SPY to the downside before it reaches a support level that has past tendencies to be Buyer oriented ($455.98/share has been 2.33 Buyers to each Seller over the past 1-2 years).
Should that level be tested, it may pave the way for further consolidation, as aside from the $436-439.99/share price zone (-7.62% from current price), the Buyer dominance dilutes until a -9.3% drop in price, at which point a seller dominated price zone is entered at $431.99/share, where the seller influence stays strong until a decline of -12.65% from the current price.
That’s not to say that this will be the case, but based on past buyer & seller behavior it is something to keep an eye on should SPY find itself needing to find support.
SPY has support at the $473 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $457.95 (50 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $455.98 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.33:1) & $450.25/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.13:1) price levels, with no past year resistance levels as they are at their 52-week high.
SPY ETF’s Price Level:Volume Sentiment From The Past 1-2 Years
QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF advanced +3.23% over the past week, having the strongest weekly performance of the major indexes.
QQQ ETF – Invesco QQQ Trust ETF’s Technical Performance Over The Past Year
Like SPY, QQQ’s RSI is also relatively flat & currently sits closer to overbought than neutral at 63.16, while their MACD line is also relatively flat, but approaching the signal line.
Volumes were -19.76% lower than average last week compared to the year prior (41,937,420 vs. 52,265,769), which is not a signal of strength following the +3.23% advance of last week.
The previous week & a half had been steady declines, which notably featured the breakdown of the support of the 10 day moving average, so this weak level of volumes on a week of only advancing sessions indicates extreme caution & that folks aren’t eager to jump back into the pool just yet.
Monday opened the week up with a wide range candle that was unable to break the resistance of the 10 day moving average.
Tuesday opened midway through Monday’s candle’s real body & marched higher to close narrowly above the 10 DMA, with a slight upper shadow indicating that there was some slight risk on apetite.
Wednesday the support of the 10 day moving average was maintained as the session moved QQQ higher.
Thursday is when things began to get a bit more dicey & cracks began to show for QQQ’s near-term outlook.
The highest volume session of the week looks to have contained a bit of profit taking by market participants, who ultimately decided that they were uncertain of QQQ’s valuation at its current price level.
The dragonfly doji candle marked the session, but the test to the downside did temporarily break the support of the 10 day moving average, signaling that there is not much conviction behind its strength at these price levels (also indicates the profit taking from the prior sessions of the week).
Friday’s session also resulted in a doji that only budged forward +0.05% from Thursday, which is not a strong indicator of confidence.
Much like SPY, QQQ’s Average True Range is also trending downward, but the price action of the past few sessions looks to have formed an inverse head & shoulders pattern in the ATR line, which would indicate there is volatility on the horizon.
QQQ has more support near the current price than SPY does, which will help some of the near-term volatility, however a -5.65% decline is facilitated by the fact that there is limited volume data for these levels before a support level that is historically 1.55 Buyers to every Seller occurs.
Due to the five & a half month floundering around in the consolidation range of $386.44-341.49 there may be some strength here for support, but sellers will still be coming out at these levels.
There is a -13.96% potential decline that currently has mostly buyer dominated sentiment over the past 1-2 years, but it seems most likely that if there is a downside test that breaks that $386.44 price level that the Buyer zones below will either become more diluted, or become Seller dominated in the near-to-mid term.
QQQ has support at the $404.09 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $395.34 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*)$392.08 (50 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $386.44/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.55:1) price levels, with resistance at the $412.92/share (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price level.
QQQ ETF’s Price Level:Volume Sentiment From The Past 1-2 Years
IWM ETF – iShares Russell 2000 ETF’s Technical Performance Over The Past Year
Their RSI is neutral at 50.14, while their MACD is in bearish decline following the declines of the new year.
Volumes were +15.74% above average last week compared to the year prior (37,456,920 vs. 32,362,470), which casts a bearish picture given that the two strongest sessions by volume were Thursday & Friday’s declines.
Monday’s session stopped the bleeding from last week with a wide range candle, however the lower shadow is longer than the upper shadow meaning that there was still a test for more downside & Monday’s session also had the lowest volume of the week, despite having the widest real body (also bearish).
The rest of the week became a consolidation range that filled in the window left by a gap up from early-to-mid December.
Tuesday’s session produced a bearish harami pattern, while Wednesday’s candle was a hanging man, signaling indecision & a probable reversal to the downside.
Thursday confirmed this & gave us a test to the downside, with the very long lower shadow hitting -1.94% lower than the session prior’s close.
Friday opened markedly higher as investors wanted to test the resistance of the very bearish looking 10 day moving average.
While IWM temporarily broke out above it, it was short lived & the day closed lower & tested even lower than where it closed.
Given the high volume of these sessions & their continuance to test to the downside, it appears that the near-term outlook for IWM is also bleak & will feature further consolidation/declines.
Their ATR is currently trending upwards, meaning that we may begin to see some even larger, more volatile moves in the coming week.
There is a lot of historic Buyer sentiment for IWM at their next support levels from the past 1-2 years, which is mostly all Buyer dominated for the next -10.85% minus the $188-189.99 zone that the sellers dominated & the $180-181.99/share zone which has been even Buyers:Sellers 1:1.
Given the way IWM tends to oscillate around a more centralized zone of prices compared to the aggressive growth of other indexes this may hold up, but if it breaks down there is nothing but Seller sentiment all the way down to their 52-week low.
IWM has support at the $191.30 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 5:1), $190.27 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 5:1), $187.67 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.5:1) & $187.27/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.5:1) price levels, with resistance at the $195.49 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 7.67:1), $196.34 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2:1), $197.10 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2:1) & $205.49/share (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.
IWM ETF’s Price Level:Volume Sentiment From The Past 1-2 Years
DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF edged forward +0.34% last week, as they have slowed down over the past two weeks after a couple of months of explosive growth & being an investor favorite.
DIA ETF – SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF’s Technical Performance Over The Past Year
Their RSI is trending back towards neutral from overbought, but still sits high at 64.58, while their MACD is declining.
Volumes were +5.57% above average last week compared to the year prior (3,693,380 vs. 3,498,473), indicating that there is a great deal of indecision among investors at this price level, given how small their week’s advance was.
Monday kicked the week off on a bullish note, with a wide range session that briefly tested lower before powering through the resistance of the 10 day moving average.
Tuesday thought began to indicate that there is weakness in the current price sentiment, as the day closed with a spinning top candle that completed a bearish harami that opened & closed below the 10 DMA & was unable to break through it to the upside during the day’s session.
Wednesday opened below the 10 DMA, but was able to break through the resistance, but it should be noted that this move was done on the weakest volume of the week, which is not a signal of confidence.
Thursday confirmed this, when a hanging man candle closed the session indicating that there is far more interest in prices being lower than their current mark (as noted by the lower shadow, which broke deep below the 10 DMA’s support) & the candle itself’s real body closed lower than it opened, indicating weakness & uncertainty.
The risk-off theme continued on Friday, with a declining session that broke through the support of the 10 day moving average, tested much lower, before closing just beneath it.
The 10 DMA is also beginning to curl over bearishly, which would mean that its resistance level would be applying downward pressure on DIA’s share price.
This is troubling, as like SPY & QQQ, DIA’s 50 DMA is the next highest level of support, but currently does not have meaningful enough data to gauge whether it is a buyer or seller dominated zone over the past 3-4 years.
The next support level is -5.95% below the current price, which while it is Buyer dominated 6:1, it has not faced any downside pressure over the past 3-4 years, so it will likely not hold up particularly strongly (at least as strongly as the 6:1 ratio implies).
The $319-321 support zone will be an interesting area to keep an eye on should prices decline towards there, as it is seller dominated, but has not been tested much to the upside.
In the event that it does not hold up, there is likely going to be a re-test of the 52-week low based on the Seller Sentiment at those price levels.
Their ATR is beginning to perk higher, indicating that there is slightly more volatility in DIA’s trading, which will likely continue into earnings season as investors begin to take chips off of the table in the beginning of the new year.
DIA has support at the $360.70 (50 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $353.53 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 6:1), $348.67 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.27:1) & $342.91/share (200 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.08:1) price levels, with resistance at the $375.91/share (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price level.
DIA ETF’s Price Level:Volume Sentiment From The Past 3-4 Years
The Week Ahead
Monday there are no major data announcements or earnings reports as the markets will be closed for Martin Luther King day.
Tuesday Fed Governor Christopher Waller is scheduled to speak at 11 am.
Goldman Sachs, Calavo Growers, Fulton Financial, Hancock Whitney, Interactive Brokers, Morgan Stanley, Pinnacle Financial Partners, PNC & Progress Software are all scheduled to report earnings on Tuesday.
Wednesday kicks off with Import Price Index, Import Price Index minus Fuel, U.S. Retail Sales & Retail Sales minus Autos at 8:30 am, Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr & Fed Governor Michelle Bowman speak at 9 am, before Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization data are released at 9:15 am.
After that on Wednesday, the Fed’s Beige Book is released at 2pm, followed by New York Fed President John Williams speaking at 3pm.
Kinder Morgan, Alcoa, Charles Schwab, Citizens Financial Group, Discover Financial Services, H.B. Fuller, Prologis, Synovus, U.S. Bancorp & Wintrust Financial all report earnings on Wednesday.
Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic speaks at 7:30 am & 12:05 pm on Thursday, in addition to Initial Jobless Claims, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey, Housing Starts & Building Permits data being released at 8:30 am.
Bank OZK, F.N.B. Corp, Fastenal, First Horizon, Home Bancshares, J.B. Hunt Transport, KeyCorp, M&T Bank, Northern Trust, PPG Industries, Texas Capital Bancshares & WNS are all reporting earnings on Thursday.
Friday the week winds down with Consumer Sentiment (prelim) & Existing Home Sales at 10 am, Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr speaking at 1om & San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly speaking at 4:15pm.
Travelers, Ally Financial, Comerica, Fifth Third, Huntington Banc, Regions Financial, SLB & State Street are all scheduled to report earnings on Friday.
See you back here next week!
*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM OR DIA AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***
SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF declined -1.54% this past week, faring second best of the major indexes only to the Dow Jones Industrial Average, as market participants sought the safety of larger cap names.
SPY ETF – SPDR S&P 500 ETF’s Technical Performance Over The Past Year
Their RSI has trended back towards neutral after spending most of December in overbought territory & currently sits at 55.25, while their MACD is currently in bearish decline following the declines of the past week & a half.
Volumes were 20.73% above average compared to the year prior (99,250,522 vs. 82,211,072), with the first two sessions of the week’s declines being the heaviest, following last Friday’s footsteps as market participants were eager to take chips off of the table following the new 52-week high set the week prior.
This will be something to keep an eye on, given how weak the inflow volume has been the couple of weeks before that, especially now that the support of the 10 day moving average has been broken.
Another key area to be watching is the wide range candle from 12/13/2023, whose high & low for the session were $468.86 & $462.25.
While that range is only 1.4%, when compared to the other candles of the past 2 months it is one of the largest, and is currently keeping the gate before prices would decline into a range that would begin the creation of the right hand shoulder, with the 52-week high as the head.
The 50 day moving average is currently set up in a manner that would be able to provide support & an easing into said shoulder, which would likely be caused by a weaker than anticipated earnings season on the horizon.
The 10 DMA was able to support last Friday’s spinning top session, but Tuesday’s session opened below the 10 DMA, tested it & ultimately closed below the open, resulting in a spinning top candle.
While the real body is concentrated towards the top of the candle, the close being below the open on an already down session set a bearish tone for the week.
Wednesday the declines continued, although seller volume slightly dipped from the higher levels of Friday & Tuesday.
Another sign of uncertainty came Thursday when a spinning top candle was the result of the day’s session, but the real body of the candle was confined to the bottom 30% of the candle, which signaled that the ice may be starting to crack.
Friday continued the theme of uncertainty, with a +0.14% gain on a doji candle; which isn’t exactly risk off, but showed that there was hardly any appetite for more risk either.
Friday did see a little participation than Thursday, but given the resulting candle was a doji that was on the lower half of the day’s range it does not signal much confidence moving into the coming week.
The candle from 12/13 is not a support level, but the open of that day’s range will be something worth looking at now, as Friday’s candle entered into the range of it.
The next support level is ~2.5% below the current price where buyers have historically dominated the sellers 2.33:1 over the past 1-2 years, however given that we are near the 52-week high these numbers are skewed towards the advancing volume.
Looking at the chart below you can see that the buyer volume sentiment is currently winning the battle for the next -7.68%, but that the sentiment wanes the further down the prices go.
Sellers step in from there historically until a -11.1% decline, which would bring us to the $415.99-412/share range, where buyers have historically stepped back in 1.54:1.
Their Average True Range is still very low, due to the low volatility & tight trading ranges of the past couple of weeks, which will likely be increasing by the end of the coming week.
SPY has support at the $455.98 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.33:1), $451.72 (50 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.13:1), $450.25 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.13:1) & $439.84/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.6:1) price levels, with resistance at the $472.71 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $477.55/share (52-Week High; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.
SPY ETF’s Price Level:Volume Sentiment Over The Past 1-2 Years
SPY ETF’s Price Level:Volume Sentiment Over The Past 1-2 Years
QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF fell -3.12% this past week, as the tech heavy index was the second least favorite of market participants.
QQQ ETF – Invesco QQQ Trust ETF’s Technical Performance Over The Past Year
Their RSI has dipped below the neutral mark of 50 & sits at 48.19 following being in overbought territory for most of December, while their MACD is bearish & signaling further declines.
Volumes were -9.78% below average this week compared to the year prior (47,239,585 vs. 52,357,932), as market participants were skeptical following Tuesday’s declines that were steeper than last Friday’s risk off price action.
Last Friday the support of the 10 day moving average held up, but Tuesday opened, closed & tested further below the 10 DMA’s resistance, before the rest of the week was riddled with indecisive candles.
Wednesday featured a spinning top that’s real body was concentrated on the lower end of the day’s range, while Thursday & Friday’s sessions each resulted in gravestone dojis, signaling uncertainty, but with market participants favoring the bearish end of the days’ ranges.
The $400/share mark will be where to keep an eye on now, as the past two days’ sessions upper shadows tested the level, but the bodies of the candles closed ~1% below (near where they opened).
In terms of support, there are two touch-points ~2.5% below the current price of QQQ, one being the 50 day moving average at $386.03 & the other being at $386.44/share, which is a candidate for being the left shoulder in the event a head & shoulders pattern emerges, using the 52-week high as the head.
Something to keep an eye on it the 10 day moving average, as it looks identical to a head & shoulders pattern & has begun to descend into the right hand shoulder, which from where we stand today looks like it would form by the end of January.
Given that the 50 DMA is moving up at the price level though this may become interesting, as if the price breaks through its support it would then become an added layer of resistance & force QQQ’s price lower.
The 200 DMA also is something to keep watch on over the next month, as it currently is -9% below the price of QQQ & is moving higher day by day (slowly).
Given the below average volumes it does appear that there is waning sentiment towards the NASDAQ names, particularly after some of its largest components led the entire market higher on their own for the past handful of months while other companies did not perform nearly as well.
This will likely give way as market participants take some chips off of the table earlier into the year to secure profits before a year that is sure to be marred with uncertainty.
Like SPY, their Average True Range is also on the lower end of its range, due to the small price range declining sessions that we’ve seen over the past week & a half, but once earnings season begins there should be more volatility & the ATR will march higher.
This may not occur until next week as the earlier names reporting earnings may have little impact on the NASDAQ.
The $380-383.99/share mark will be a critical area to watch, as that is the strongest buyer dominated price zone over the past 1-2 years at 4:1 Buyers:Sellers (-4.22% from current price), with the $360-363.99/share level being next (-9.26% from current price) in terms of buyer strength.
While the other price zones are relatively buyer oriented or even, this looks primed to even out in the course of the coming few months & will be something to watch.
QQQ has support at the $393.15 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $386.44 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.55:1), $386.03 (50 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.55:1) & $383.35/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 4:1) price levels, with resistance at the $405.27 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $412.92/share (52-Week High; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.
QQQ ETF’s Price Level:Volume Sentiment Analysis Over The Past 1-2 Years
QQQ ETF’s Price Level:Volume Sentiment Analysis Over The Past 1-2 Years
IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF has the worst week of the major indexes, dipping -3.69% as investors were weary of small cap names that had been enjoying a solid run up from a 52-week low in October of 2023 to a new 52-week high in December.
IWM ETF – iShares Russell 2000 ETF’s Technical Performance Over The Past Year
Their RSI has just retreated to the near neutral level & sits at 51.34, after spending most of December in overbought territory following a +27.57% run from a new 52-week low to 52-week high that began at the end of October & ended mid-December 2023.
Their MACD is also currently in bearish decline due to the declines from the 52-week high.
Volumes were 44.12% above average compared to the year prior (46,084,180 vs. 31,976,621), as market participants were eager to take their winnings off of the table, signaling that the “January Effect” may not be taking place this year.
All of this week’s bearish volumes eclipsed the volumes of the week & a half prior, signaling that there looks to be blood in the water.
Much like SPY & QQQ, last Friday’s session was held up by the support of the 10 day moving average for IWM.
However, Tuesday opened, tested & broke above the 10 DMA, before closing well below it on a doji candle, signaling uncertainty, but also a risk off attitude.
Wednesday kicked off with a gap down, which tried briefly to break higher but left a large window, before declining ~1.7% in a wide range session to the downside.
Thursday the painful outlook continued, as IWM opened near the close of the day prior, tested higher but couldn’t reach the $196/share mark, before closing lower on a spinning top candle.
Friday’s session offered a glimmer of hope that was still tainted with uncertainty, as the session opened below Thursday’s close, tested to Thursday’s high but ultimately closed lower thant he day’s open on volume that was not much weaker than Tuesday & Thursday’s.
It will be interesting to see how support levels for IWM hold up in the coming weeks, as they have been the most apt to fluctuate back & forth index compared to the others that mostly have just continued to climb before oscillating around a range near the tops.
While the next 11% decline is mostly buyer dominated levels by volume, it will be worth consulting this price level:volume sentiment analysis to see the breakdown of their support levels & prior volume sentiments at each level.
Should an 11% decline be on the cards, that hits the $172/share mark, which will test support zones created by prior consolidation ranges, however the sellers takeover there all the way down to the 52-week low, which will make it interesting to see if that low level is tested again & if it holds up or not.
Their Average True Range is near its mean & will be another area of interest to watch in the coming weeks to see whether we get more volatility & a strong trend to one side or the other, or if there is more of a weak ranged consolidation period on the cards for us.
The small cap IWM index has shown on average wider range sessions than the other indexes this past year though & will likely continue this trend.
IWM has support at the $190.27 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 5:1), $187.67 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.5:1), $187.27 (volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.5:1) & $186.19/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.5:1) price levels, with resistance at the $196.34 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2:1), $197.10 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2:1), $199.56 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $205.49/share (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.
IWM ETF’s Price Level:Volume Sentiment Over The Past 1-2 Years
IWM ETF’s Price Level:Volume Sentiment Over The Past 1-2 Years
DIA ETF – SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF’s Technical Performance Over The Past Year
Their RSI is slightly under overbought territory & currently sits at 68.16, after spending most of the prior two months above 70 (overbought).
It is worth noting that a head & shoulders pattern in their RSI developed during that time, signaling that there should be a reversion towards the neutral level in the near-term, particularly after the ascent they took over the past 2 months.
Their MACD is bearish & continuing lower since around the time that they set a new 52-week high at the end of 2023.
Volumes were 55.6% above average this week compared to the year prior (5,449,479 vs. 3,502,129), which is a source of confusion, as it shows investors are still flocking to the larger cap stocks in times of shakeup & 3 of the past 4 sessions were bullish.
However, it is worth noting that the highest volume session of last week was Wednesday’s bearish declining session, which is the second highest volume session of the past 9-10 months.
Their 10 day moving average will also be an area of interest to keep an eye on, as it is now acting as resistance just above Friday’s close.
Last week kicked off on Tuesday with a move up that was supported by the 10 DMA, setting the 52-week high to $337.82/share.
Wednesday saw declines that closed beneath the support of the 10 DMA on the highest volumes of the week.
Thursday resulted in a gravestone doji that opened & closed just beneath the 10 DMA on weak volume, but was an advancing session, indicating that there is extreme uncertainty at these levels.
Friday the indecision continued, with a doji candle that’s real body was also contained by the resistance of the 10 day moving average, which is now curled over & applying more downwards pressure on the share price than it had been earlier in the week.
While Friday’s session had more volume than Thursday’s, it still signals that there is great uncertainty & a lack of confidence in prices at these levels.
12/13’s candle will also be an area to keep an eye on, as the opening level, while not a formal support point, is the gateway to what would be the right hand shoulder should a head & shoulders pattern emerge using the 52-week high as a head.
The $336-340 zone will also be a place to keep an eye on should prices dip that low.
Those are the strongest current buyer dominated zones within -12.5% of the current price & the sellers come out in droves for an additional 4-5% below that, which would pose a challenge to the support of the 52-week low from March of 2023.
Given that this is ~18% below their current price there is time to see how things may go should declines venture that far south, but given the space between the current price & support levels it may come sooner than we think.
DIA has support at the $355.76 (50 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 6:1), $353.53 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 6:1), $348.67 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.27:1) & $342.39/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.08:1) price levels, with resistance at the $375.40 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $377.82/share (52-Week High; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.
DIA ETF’s Price Level:Volume Sentiment Over The Past 3-4 Years
DIA ETF’s Price Level:Volume Sentiment Over The Past 3-4 Years
DIA ETF’s Price Level:Volume Sentiment Over The Past 3-4 Years
The Week Ahead
Monday the week kicks off with Consumer Credit data reported at 3pm.
Accolade, Helen of Troy & Jefferies are all scheduled to report earnings on Monday.
Trade Deficit data is scheduled to be released at 8:30 am on Tuesday.
Acuity Brands, Albertsons, AZZ, Neogen, PriceSmart, SMART Global, TD Synnex, Tilray & WD-40 are all scheduled to report earnings on Tuesday.
Wednesday brings us Wholesale Inventories data at 10 am & at 3:15 pm New York Fed President John Williams is scheduled to speak.
KB Home is set to report earnings on Wednesday.
Things heat up on Thursday with Initial Jobless Claims, CPI & Core CPI Year-over-Year data released at 8:30 am, followed by the Budget Statement at 2pm.
Friday the week winds down with PPI & Core PPI Year-over-Year data at 8:30 am.
Delta Airlines, Wells Fargo, Bank of America, BlackRock, BNY Mellon, Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase & United Health are all due to report earnings on Friday.
See you back here next week!
*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM OR DIA AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***
Market indexes have found themselves hovering near new 52-week highs over the past week as we head into the year’s end; Santa delivered this Christmas season!
As it is the end of the year & we are at new price extremes on the upside, it is worth taking time to review how these buyers & sellers have behaved at different price levels for each of the indexes.
The article below outlines a brief technical analysis of recent performance for SPY, QQQ, IWM & DIA, as well as a price level:volume sentiment analysis for each index covering the past 1-2 years worth of data (3-4 years for DIA).
As always, this is not meant to serve as investing advice, but rather as a barometer to use as an additional tool when doing your own due diligence.
When reading the price level:volume sentiment portions below note that the top images show the price level:volume sentiment at the past year’s support & resistance levels for each index, the bottom image shows the individual price levels & their relationship to the current price level, and the lists below them include the same data as the second image where all of the support & resistance levels are marked in bold.
Technical Analysis Of SPY, The SPDR S&P 500 ETF
SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF gained +0.92% last week, staying relatively range-bound just above the support of the ascending 10 day moving average.
SPY ETF – The SPDR S&P 500 ETF’s Technical Performance Over The Past Year
Their RSI is currently overbought at 71.41, while their MACD is bullish, but moving relatively flat, which tends to signal a bearish crossover & a consolidation period are on the horizon.
Volumes were -6.31% below average last week compared to the year prior (76,570,440 vs. 81,726,945), indicating a lack of confidence near new 52-week highs, as well as traders taking vacations ahead of the Christmas holiday.
Monday kicked the week off on a note of uncertainty with a spinning top candlestick that closed just above Friday’s upper shadow, with upper & lower shadows being roughly the same size.
Tuesday opened higher & climbed steadily towards the $475 price level, but fell short at $474.92 for the day’s high, while closing just below it for the day at $474.84/share.
A new 52-week high was established Wednesday at $475.89/share after the day’s session opened at the midway point of Tuesday’s candle, but profits were eagerly taken & the day closed lower, but remained above the 10 DMA (even its lower shadow) as a sign of support.
Thursday hinted at more skittishness among market participants with a hanging man candle that tested lower, but did not dip lower than the day prior’s close as the 10 DMA maintained support & forced the session to close higher (although only 75-80% of the day prior’s candle), although a bearish harami pattern was formed after the close with Wednesday’s candle.
The week ended as uncertain as it began from a technical perspective, with Friday closing in a doji whose upper shadow did not get as high as Wednesday’s candle’s & whose lower shadow covered most of the prior day’s candle’s real body.
Their Average True Range does not reflect a strong trend & has been showing weakening as the week progressed, which when paired with the uncertainty of the candles does seem to signal that we are nearing a cooldown period.
The strongest volume session of the week was Wednesday, which was a declining session & the bullish sessions except for Thursday’s all had volumes that were <75% of Wednesday’s declining volumes, signaling a lack of enthusiasm for more risk in the near-term.
There is an emerging bearish head & shoulders pattern which will be something to keep an eye on as we enter the new year, particularly if there is a consolidation around the $450-460/share price range, where the 50 DMA will be a support level to keep an eye on, as well as the $455.98 & $450.25/share price levels.
Price Level:Volume Sentiment Analysis For SPY, The SPDR S&P 500 ETF
SPY’s reaching new 52-week highs has created an interesting area in terms of volume analysis, as there is limited data in terms of the strength of buyers:sellers currently until a -3.73% decline has taken place, bringing prices down to $456/share.
This will be particularly interesting as their 2nd highest support level is currently at $455.98/share & this would likely trigger the support that would lay the groundwork for the bearish head & shoulders pattern mentioned above.
Again, due to the limited data as these price levels are higher than usual the support zone that is depicted below between the -3.73%-8.79% block will get fuzzy, as the strongest volume sentiments lie above the -5.42% range from the current price in the image below.
Should support break down in the other buyer dominated ranges their price will enter a seller dominated zone that dips down to -12.17% from their current price to $416/share.
There are support points in the $412-413 price range which has been 1.54 Buyers:1 Seller over the past 1-2 years, but this could pave the way to test the $407.56/share support level, which if broken would likely bring a test of the $400/share price level, given that the sellers get more aggressive in the $400-403.99/share range, which comes after a seller dominated zone already.
The chart below outlines the price level:volume sentiment for the major support & resistance areas of the past year, followed by the list of each price level’s volume sentiment.
SPY ETF’s Price Level:Volume Sentiment Analysis Over The Past 1-2 Years With Support & Resistance Levels
SPY ETF’s Price Level:Volume Sentiment Analysis For The Past 1-2 Years
$476 – NULL – 0:0*; +0.5% From Current Price Level
$472 – NULL – 0:0*; -0.35% From Current Price Level – Current Price Box*
$468 – NULL – 0:0*; -1.19% From Current Price Level – 10 Day Moving Average*
$464 – NULL – 0:0*; -2.04% From Current Price Level
$460 – NULL – 0:0*; -2.88% From Current Price Level
$456 – NULL – 0:0*; -3.73% From Current Price Level
$452 – Buyers – 2.33:1; -4.57% From Current Price Level
$448 – Buyers – 2.133:1; -5.42% From Current Price Level
$444 – Buyers – 1.56:1; -6.26% From Current Price Level – 50 Day Moving Average*
$440 – Buyers – 1.19:1; -7.1% From Current Price Level
$436 – Buyers – 1.6:1; -7.95% From Current Price Level
$432 – Buyers – 1.05:1; -8.79% From Current Price Level
$428 – Sellers – 1.29:1; -9.64% From Current Price Level
$424 – Sellers – 1.14:1; -10.48% From Current Price Level
$420 – Sellers – 1.87:1; -11.33% From Current Price Level
$416 – Sellers – 1.36:1; -12.17% From Current Price Level
$412 – Buyers – 1.54:1; -13.02% From Current Price Level
$408 – Buyers – 2.22:1; -13.86% From Current Price Level
$404 – Sellers – 1.15:1; -14.7% From Current Price Level
$400 – Sellers – 2.06:1; -15.55% From Current Price Level
$396 – Buyers – 1.27:1; -16.39% From Current Price Level
$392 – Buyers – 1.5:1; -17.24% From Current Price Level
$388 – Buyers – 1.95:1; -18.08% From Current Price Level
$384 – Sellers – 1.56:1; -18.93% From Current Price Level
$380 – Sellers – 2.89:1; -19.77% From Current Price Level
$376 – Seller s- 1.89:1; -20.62% From Current Price Level
$372 – Sellers – 1.53:1; -21.46% From Current Price Level
$368 – Sellers – 1.33:1; -22.31% From Current Price Level
$364 – Sellers – 3:1; -23.15% From Current Price Level
$360 – Sellers – 1.86:1; -23.99% From Current Price Level
$356 – Buyers – 1.07:1; -24.84% From Current Price Level
$352 – Sellers – 2:0*; -25.68% From Current Price Level
$348 – Sellers – 3:0*; -26.53% From Current Price Level
$344 – NULL – 0:0*; -27.37% From Current Price Level
$340 – NULL – 0:0*; -28.22% From Current Price Level
Technical Analysis Of QQQ, The Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ)
QQQ ETF – Invesco QQQ Trust ETF’s Technical Performance Over The Past Year
Their RSI is currently overbought at 70.96, while their MACD is bullish, but flattening out, which tends to signal that there will be a consolidation period in the near-term.
Volumes were -17.72% below average last week compared to the year prior (43,245,120 vs. 52,559,460), which signals a severe lack of confidence at these 52-week high price levels, particularly as the highest volume session came on Wednesday’s declining session.
Monday kicked off slightly higher than Friday’s close, with a slight upper shadow indicating that they may nudge higher on Tuesday, which occurred but on only ~80% of Monday’s volumes, signaling that not many more people were eager to jump into the pool.
This was confirmed on Wednesday where the week’s highest volume session occurred, opening near the open of Tuesday’s session, pushing higher to establish the new 52-week high level at $410.47, which then resulted in the rug being pulled out from under the session & declines that closed near the close of the prior Thursday’s session (below all other sessions in between & their shadows).
Conflicting energies were in the air on Thursday, as a dragonfly doji candle showed uncertainty, but a potential for a kick upward, while also forming a bearish harami pattern with the day prior.
While Thursday’s session had volume that was ~85% of Wednesday’s session, that still signals a yellow light.
Friday continued on the skating on thin ice theme, with a spinning top candle whose upper shadow did not break near the 52-week high set Wednesday & whose lower shadow dipped below the open of the day prior’s candle, sending the 10 day moving average into a flattening process, preparing it to curl over bearishly in the near-term & signaling the strength of support is weakening.
Due to Friday’s volumes being lowest of the week it also indicates that there was limited interest in carrying new risk into the holiday weekend.
Their Average True Range also has been signaling a weakening trend over the past week, which does not bode well for the near-term.
Market participants should have their eyes peeled for a bearish head & shoulders formation, particularly if the $390/share price level becomes tested in a consolidation, as the 50 DMA will become the nearest support level by that point in the event of decline.
Price Level:Volume Sentiment Analysis For QQQ, The Invesco QQQ Trust ETF
Much like SPY, QQQ sits in a similar position near its 52-week high & has limited buyer:seller data near these price levels for the past 1-2 years.
After a -5% decline there is a window of buyer dominated prices, but minus the sturdy 4:1 Buyers:Sellers price zone of $380-383.99/share things begin to get a bit muddier.
This would enter the consolidation range that would become the right shoulder mentioned prior.
If prices are walked down to the $341.67 support level (which we may well be based on the volume sentiments below & the current positioning of QQQ’s moving averages), then there is no support until $311.69/share.
There is one price zone in between those levels (similar to SPY above) that has standout Buyer:Seller levels over the last 1-2 years, the $324-327.99/share price zone.
Should this not hold up there are strong chances that the $307.31/share support level is tested, which may lead to a test of the $300/share level based on the Seller:Buyer volume of that price level.
While this would be a medium-term price movement most likely, it will be something worth keeping an eye on along the way down.
QQQ ETF’s Price Level:Volume Sentiment Analysis Over The Past 1-2 Years With Support & Resistance Levels
QQQ ETF’s Price Level:Volume Sentiment Analysis Over The Past 1-2 Years
QQQ ETF’s Price Level:Volume Sentiment Analysis Over The Past 1-2 Years
$412 – NULL – 0:0*; +0.89% From Current Price Level
$408 – NULL – 0:0*; -0.09% From Current Price Level – Current Price Box*
$404 – NULL – 0:0*; -1.07% From Current Price Level
$400 – NULL – 0:0*; -2.05% From Current Price Level – 10 Day Moving Average*
$396 – NULL – 0:0*; -3.03% From Current Price Level
$392 – NULL – 0:0*; -4.01% From Current Price Level
$388 – NULL – 0:0*; -4.99% From Current Price Level
$384 – Buyer s- 1.55:1; -5.97% From Current Price Level
$380 – Buyers – 4:1; -6.95% From Current Price Level
$376 – Buyers – 1.21:1; -7.93% From Current Price Level – 50 Day Moving Average
$372 – Sellers – 1.03:1; -8.91% From Current Price Level
$368 – Buyers – 1.1:1; -9.89% From Current Price Level
$364 – Buyers – 1.4:1; -10.87% From Current Price Level
$360 – Buyers – 1.82:1; -11.85% From Current Price Level
$356 – Sellers – 1.16:1; -12.83% From Current Price Level
$352 – Buyers – 1.40:1; -13.81% From Current Price Level – 200 Day Moving Average
$348 – Even – 1:1; -14.79% From Current Price Level
$344 – Sellers – 1.06:1; -15.76% From Current Price Level
$340 – Buyers – 1.92:1; -16.74% From Current Price Level
$336 – Sellers – 2.4:1; -17.72% From Current Price Level
$332 – Even – 1:1; -18.7% From Current Price Level
$328 – Sellers – 1.36:1; -19.68% From Current Price Level
$324 – Buyers – 2.24:1; -20.66% From Current Price Level
$320 – Buyers – 1.37:1; -21.64% From Current Price Level
$316 – Sellers – 1.46:1; -22.62 From Current Price Level
$312 – Sellers – 1.8:1; -23.6% From Current Price Level
$308 – Sellers – 1.15:1; -24.58% From Current Price Level
$304 – Buyers – 1.18:1; -25.56% From Current Price Level
$300 – Sellers – 1.62:1; 26.54% From Current Price Level
$296 – Buyers – 1.85:1; -27.52% From Current Price Level
$292 – Buyers – 1.64:1; -28.5% From Current Price Level
$288 – Sellers – 1.26:1; -29.48% From Current Price Level
$284 – Sellers – 2.22:1; -30.46% From Current Price Level
$280 – Buyers – 1.15:1; -31.44% From Current Price Level
$276 – Buyers – 1.06:1; -32.42% From Current Price Level
$272 – Sellers – 1.21:1; -33.4% From Current Price Level
$268 – Sellers – 1.61:1; -34.37% From Current Price Level
$264 – Buyers – 1.15:1; -35.35% From Current Price Level
$260 – Sellers – 3.6:1; -36.33% From Current Price Level
$256 – Sellers – 2.7:0*; -37.31% From Current Price Level
Technical Analysis Of IWM, The iShares Russell 2000 ETF
IWM ETF – The iShares Russell 2000 ETF’s Technical Performance Over The Past Year
Their RSI is also currently overbought at 73.18, while their MACD is still bullish, but beginning to stretch out as if it is exhausting & preparing to roll over bearishly following a month & a half long advance.
Volumes were +50.54% above average last week compared tot he year prior (47,347,420 vs. 31,451,786), which is the aftershock of last week’s massive price jumps & high volume sessions of Wednesday & Thursday, as well as last Friday’s heavy volume profit taking day that followed.
Monday established a bearish harami that set up the squeeze that brought about the end of the week’s new 52-week high, as the day’s candle opened higher than Friday’s but closed lower for the session, with an upper shadow that tested near Friday’s open.
Tuesday’s session featured a wide-range real body higher, with slight upper & lower shadows on the second highest volume of the week, indicating that there was risk appetite, but that it was relatively confined to the open & closing prices & in between, not much higher or lower.
Wednesday set a new 52-week high for the time being before retreating like the other indexes into a day of steep declines on high volumes (highest of the week) as investors were eager to secure profits & take them off of the table.
Thursday completed a bearish harami pattern that tested much lower than it closed based on the lower shadow of the day’s candle, which broke below the $198/share price level on low volume.
Friday sent conflicting signals & clouds of uncertainty, with a gap up session whose lower shadow did not touch the $200/share price level, but whose real body was concentrated in the lower 50% of the day’s range, despite establishing a new 52-week high.
The low volume of the session also indicated that there was limited interest in carrying risk into the long weekend.
IWM’s Average True Range also has been declining, signaling that there is a weakening in the trend.
There is a support zone between the 10 DMA, $197.10 & $196.34/share price range which will be an area to keep an eye on in the coming days-to-weeks, particularly as their 50 & 200 day moving averages are primed to form a golden cross in the coming week.
Should prices drop below there, the window created last week between Wednesday & Thursday will become a problem area & likely lead to further declines.
Price Level:Volume Sentiment Analysis For IWM, The iShares Russell 2000 ETF
IWM is in a different camp than the other major indexes, as although they too are are 52-week highs & have limited data at these levels, they also have not ascended the same way as the others & have fluctuated more in ranges of the past year.
As they move differently than the other three ETFs noted in this article, it is imperative to consider that while reading their charts below.
The support zone of $194-197.99/share is currently jam packed with buyer sentiment, however, given that this contains two prior 52-week highs the sellers are underrepresented as there has been limited trading action at these price levels.
After a 7% drop from their current price level the buyer sentiment is much more diluted that it is at the higher price levels, which is where the shoulders of the prior head & shoulders patterns occurred.
Should it be tested, the $180-181.99/share price level will be interesting to see, given that it is currently even between buyers & sellers historically.
With how IWM tends to fluctuate in ranges & how their 52-week low was set only 2 months ago it will be interesting to see how buyers & sellers meet, as many of the price levels below do have limited/skewed data that is reflective of the oscillating nature of the ETF.
IWM ETF’s Price Level:Volume Sentiment For The Past 1-2 Years With Resistance & Support Levels
IWM ETF’s Price Level:Volume Sentiment For The Past 1-2 Years
$204 – NULL – 0:0*; +1.25% From Current Price Level
$200 – NULL – 0:0*; -0.73% From Current Price Level – Current Price Box*
$198 – NULL – 0:0*; -1.73% From Current Price Level
$196 – Buyers – 2:1; -2.72% From Current Price Level
$194 – Buyers – 7.67:1; -3.71% From Current Price Level – 10 Day Moving Average*
$192 – Sellers – 2.8:1; -4.71% From Current Price Level
$190 – Buyers – 5:1; -5.7% From Current Price Level
$188 – Sellers – 1.27:1; -6.69% From Current Price Level
$186 – Buyers – 3.5:1; -7.68% From Current Price Level
$184 – Buyers – 1.32:1; -8.68% From Current Price Level
$182 – Buyers – 1.15:1; -9.67% From Current Price Level
$180 – Even – 1:1; -10.66% From Current Price Level
$178 – Buyers – 1.36:1; -11.65% From Current Price Level – 200 Day Moving Average*
$176 – Buyers – 1.86:1; -12.65% From Current Price Level – 50 Day Moving Average*
$174 – Buyers – 1.04:1; -13.64% From Current Price Level
$172 – Buyers – 1.30:1; -14.63% From Current Price Level
$170 – Sellers – 1.79:1; -15.62% From Current Price Level
$168 – Sellers – 1.4:1; -16.62% From Current Price Level
$166 – Sellers – 2:1; -17.61% From Current Price Level
$164 – Sellers – 1.83:1; -18.6% From Current Price Level
$162 – Sellers – 1.35:1; -19.59% From Current Price Level
$160 – Sellers – 1.75:1; -20.59% From Current Price Level
Technical Analysis Of DIA, The SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF
DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF gained +0.31% last week, faring the worst of the major indexes, as investors took profits on Wednesday & Thursday, while remaining otherwise rangebound all week.
DIA ETF – SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF’s Technical Performance Over The Past Year
Their RSI is also overbought at 74.82, while their MACD is currently bullish, but showing an impending bearish crossover in the coming week.
Volumes were +8.53% above average last week compared to the year prior (3,777,000 vs. 3,480,259), which indicates that people are still interested in the larger cap names, but are also on edge due to Wednesday’s declining session being the highest volume of the week (the chart also looks like someone giving the middle finger for the week if you look closely at the volumes, reading between the lines).
Monday kicked off the week on an uncertain note, with a spinning top that closed lower than it opened & whose real body remained mostly in the bottom 60% of the candle.
Tuesday saw a run higher with a wide-range candle that broke the $375/share mark & set a temporary new 52-week high, but there was limited volume confirming that this was a bullish signal.
Wednesday opened midway through Tuesday’s candle’s real body, broke higher to set a new 52-week high, but declined to below the close of the previous Thursday’s session & whose lower shadow dipped into the range the prior Wednesday’s session traded in, while on the highest volume of the week.
Thursday completed a bearish harami pattern with a long lower shadow that found support just above the 10 day moving average, but managed to close higher.
Friday provided even more indecision on a declining session that was a doji, as it’s upper shadow tested lower than the two highest sessions of the week, while its lower shadow dipped below all of the sessions except for Wednesday’s real bodies (and all but Thursday’s lower shadows as well).
DIA’s Average True Range is signaling that there is not a strong trend, but the line is flat, signaling that there will soon be a break to one direction or another.
Should there be a move to the downside & the 10 DMA’s support is broken, it will be worth watching to see where the 50 DMA is at, as currently the only support level between the 10 & 50 DMAs is $353.53/share.
There is also a watch for a bearish head & shoulders for DIA in the medium term, particularly as so many market participants have sought shelter there over the past 6-12 months.
Price Level:Volume Sentiment Analysis For DIA, The SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF
DIA’s price level:volume sentiment is also different than SPY & QQQ, but not for the same reasons as IWM.
They’ve run up so far from their nearest support levels that aren’t moving averages that there is a lot of room without much footing to catch on to.
The 10 day moving average currently is so close to the 52-week high that there is limited data on whether its buyer or seller dominated.
What’s concerning regarding DIA is that so many market participants have continued to pile into them while other indexes have taken losses, which gives cause for concern should there be some event that leads everyone for the exits.
In the event of a 10% correction to DIA, the levels below it for the next 2.25% down are still buyer dominated, but weakly, before the seller dominance steps in for an additional 4.25%, which is in the price range of their current 52-week high (set in March of 2023).
This will be something to keep an eye on in the event of decline, especially if there happens to be a 10%+ fall.
Given that DIA is also using 3-4 years worth of data, the lower range data discussed above is not as lacking in sample size compared to the other indexes mentioned prior, making it more meaningful in the long-run.
DIA ETF’s Price Level:Volume Sentiment For The Past 3-4 Years With Resistance & Support Levels
DIA ETF’s Price Level:Volume Sentiment For The Past 3-4 Years
DIA ETF’s Price Level:Volume Sentiment For The Past 3-4 Years
$380 – NULL – 0:0*; +1.66% From Current Price Level
$376 – NULL – 0:0*; +0.59% From Current Price Level
$372 – NULL – 0:0*; -0.48% From Current Price Level – Current Price Box & 10 Day Moving Average*
$368 – NULL – 0:0*; -1.55% From Current Price Level
$364 – NULL – 0:0*; -2.62% From Current Price Level
$360 – NULL – 0:0*; -3.69% From Current Price Level
$356 – NULL – 0:0*; -4.76% From Current Price Level
$352 – Buyers – 6:1; -5.83% From Current Price Level
$348 – Buyers – 1.27:1; -6.9% From Current Price Level – 50 Day Moving Average*
$344 – Sellers – 1.03:1; -7.97% From Current Price Level
$340 – Buyers – 2.08:1; -9.04% From Current Price Level
$336 – Buyers- 1.45:1; -10.11% From Current Price Level – 200 Day Moving Average*
$332 – Buyers – 1.03:1; -11.18% From Current Price Level
$328 – Buyers – 1.07:1; -12.25% From Current Price Level
$324 – Sellers – 1.38:1; -13.32% From Current Price Level
$320 – Sellers – 1.04:1; -14.39% From Current Price Level
$316 – Sellers – 1.42:1; -15.46% From Current Price Level
$312 – Sellers – 1.78:1; -16.53% From Current Price Level
$308 – Buyers – 1.93:1; -17.6% From Current Price Level
$304 – Sellers – 1.55:1; -18.67% From Current Price Level
$300 – Buyers – 1.2:1; -19.74% From Current Price Level
$296 – Buyers – 1.44:1; -20.81% From Current Price Level
$292 – Sellers – 1.47:1; -21.88% From Current Price Level
$288 – Even – 1:1; -22.95% From Current Price Level
$284 – Buyers – 1.06:1; -24.02% From Current Price Level
$280 – Sellers – 1.1:1; -25.09% From Current Price Level
$276 – Buyers – 1.4:1; -26.16% From Current Price Level
$272 – Buyers – 4:1; -27.23% From Current Price Level
$268 – Buyers – 4:1; -28.3% From Current Price Level
$264 – Sellers – 1.18:1; -29.37% From Current Price Level
$260 – Buyers – 1.21:1; -30.44% From Current Price Level
$256 – Buyers – 1.43:1; -31.51% From Current Price Level
$252 – Buyers – 1.71:1; -32.58% From Current Price Level
$248 – Buyer s- 1.56:1; -33.65% From Current Price Level
$244 – Buyers – 4.25:1; -34.72% From Current Price Level
$240 – Buyers – 3.2:1; -35.79% From Current Price Level
$236 – Sellers – 2.33:1; -36.86% From Current Price Level
$232 – Sellers – 4.5:1; -37.93% From Current Price Level
$228 – Buyers – 6:1; -39% From Current Price Level
$224 – Buyers – 1.17:1; -40.07% From Current Price Level
$220 – Buyers – 2.11:1; -41.14% From Current Price Level
$216 – Buyers – 1.22:1; -42.22% From Current Price Level
$212 – Sellers – 0.3:0**; -43.29% From Current Price Level
$208 – Buyers – 1:0*; -44.36% From Current Price Level
$204 – NULL – 0:0*; -45.43% From Current Price Level
$200 – NULL – 0:0*; -46.5% From Current Price Level
$198 – Buyers – 0.3:0*; -47.03% From Current Price Level
$196 – Sellers – 0.3:0*; -47.57% From Current Price Level
$194 – NULL – 0:0*; -48.1% From Current Price Level
$192 – NULL – 0:0*; -48.64% From Current Price Level
The Week Ahead
Monday will have no economic data to report as it is Christmas & markets will be closed.
Tuesday kicks the week off with S&P Case-Schiller Home Price Index (20 cities) dat at 9 am.
Wednesday has no data scheduled to be released.
Initial Jobless Claims, Advanced U.S. Trade Balance In Goods, Advanced Retail Inventories & Advanced Wholesale Inventories data are released Thursday at 8:30 am, followed by Pending Home Sales at 10 am.
Friday the week winds down with the Chicago Business Barometer data at 9:45 am & the bond market will be closing early.
See you back here next year!
*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM, OR DIA & THIS IS NOT INVESTING ADVICE, PLEASE DO YOUR OWN DUE DILIGENCE ***
SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF remained relatively flat last week, only adding +0.24%, as market participants remained cautious while awaiting this week’s CPI, PPI & Fed Interest Rate decision data this upcoming week.
SPY ETF – SPDR S&P 500 ETF’s Technical Performance Over The Past Year
Their RSI is currently overbought at 70.08, with a MACD that is bearish after crossing over last week, but it is relatively flat following the tightly rangebound price action of the past few weeks.
Volumes were -8.43% below average compared to the year prior (75,087,217 vs. 81,996,981), which does not cast a bullish picture, particularly as while Friday’s bullish volume led the week, Monday, Tuesday & Wednesday’s bearish volume sessions were higher than Thursday’s advancing session & not far below Friday’s volume.
Monday kicked the week off on a bearish note, although the upper shadow of the day’s candle tested much higher than the lower shadow tested lower & the session opened on the 10 day moving average, but was able to close higher than the open, despite being lower than the previous Friday’s session.
However, the spinning top candle does imply indecision.
Tuesday followed in Monday’s footsteps in terms of a spinning top with the same opening & closing attributes, however it did not test as high & was on lower volume, signaling more uncertainty among market participants.
Wednesday opened near the highs of Monday’s session, however it took a bearish turn & ultimately closed below the support of the 10 day moving average.
Thursday saw some bullish price action, but the uncertain theme continued as the session resulted in a spinning top & were on the lowest volume session of the week.
However, it should be noted that the 10 DMA was able to support the candle, with the lower shadow bouncing off of it & heading higher.
Friday opened above the 10 DMA & closed higher with a small upper shadow & set a new 52-week high, which will be an area to watch going into next week.
The 10 DMA will also be important to watch, as it has become more rounded at the top which will likely make it weaker as a support level & it will become the highest support level in the near future.
Their Average True Range has remained flat since late November in the lower end of their chart, as there has been limited volatility with the majority of days resulting in limited movement upwards or downwards.
It should also be noted that currently the price level for SPY has historically been dominated by sellers, which although is to be expected as it is near a price extreme, will make watching their price levels in relation to the chart below important in the coming weeks.
If there are further advances it will shed insight into how much further it will run & if there are declines it will highlight the strength of the support levels below the price.
SPY has support at the $457.82 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2:0*), $456.60 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2:0*), $452.08 (Volume Sentiment: Even, 1:1) & $438.14/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.21:1) price levels, with no resistance levels from the past year as they are currently at a new 52-week high.
SPY ETF’s Price Level:Volume Sentiment Analysis For The Past 2-3 Years
QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF improved +0.57% over the past week, faring second best of the major indexes after a having the worst week of the bunch the week prior.
QQQ ETF – Invesco QQQ Trust ETF’s Technical Performance Over The Past Year
Their RSI is trending towards overbought conditions & currently sits at 65.6, while the MACD is bearish but has recently flattened after last week’s results.
Volumes were -14.04% below average last week compared to the year prior (45,461,933 vs. 52,885,137), signaling severe hesitancy by traders & investors.
Monday’s volumes on the declining session were the highest of the week, with Tuesday’s advancing session having the second lowest volumes (only to Wednesday’s declining session).
Monday’s candle was a dragonfly doji, which set the stage for a slight upwards movement for the rest of the week, but also signaled that there would be uncertainty among market participants.
Thursday’s advancing session had the highest volume of the week, however when you break down the day’s candlestick the upper shadow is the smallest, the day’s open occurred at the 10 day moving average & while it closed higher, it did test the support of the 10 DMA by dipping below it & going over halfway down the wide-range bar of Wednesday’s bearish session.
That 10 day moving average will be something to keep an eye on in the near future, as over the past week it has spent a fair amount of time serving as the support & resistance in a relatively tight price range, which will eventually exhaust when there hasn’t been enough bullish action with it acting as support.
Their Average True Range does not indicate there has bee much volatility recently, but given how their past 14 sessions have traded over a tight price range with limited movements to the upside & downside this makes sense & is beginning to look concerning & foreboding of something on the horizon.
QQQ has support at the $388.92 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $387.42 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.75:1), $380.28 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 6:1) & $373.74/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.1:1) price levels, with resistance at the $394.14/share (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price level, which is their 52-week high which was set last week.
QQQ ETF’s Price Level:Volume Sentiment Analysis Over The Past 1-2 Years
IWM ETF – iShares Russell 2000 ETF’s Technical Performance Over The Past Year
Their RSI is trending towards overbought levels at 66.92, with a bullish MACD that is beginning to show signs of fading enthusiasm after a strong past few weeks.
Volumes were +41.51% above average last week compared to the year prior (43,038,183 vs. 30,412,676), which paints an interesting picture given that Monday’s session was the strongest volume of the week (but hardly compared with Friday before it) on a wide-range session by prices with limited shadows on the upper/lower.
Tuesday opened mid-way up Monday’s price range, tested lower than Monday’s total range, but closed within the real-body of Monday’s candle, still for a loss (bearish sentiment) on the second lowest volume of the week.
Wednesday’s volumes are where things get interesting, as the day opened higher than Tuesday’s close, tested the $187.96 resistance level (or $187-188 resistance zone) but were only able to reach $187.92, before ultimately closing lower than the day prior & leaving an upper shadow that makes up over half of the day’s candle.
This did not show much confidence in the retest of the resistance level noted above, which despite the next two session’s moving higher, were untested again, with Friday’s candle having a large upper shadow compared to the day’s open/close range.
Their Average True Range will be an important thing to watch in the coming weeks, as the sessions with the lowest price volatility of the 14 day calculation period will all be removed & replaced by Wednesday, implying an uptick in volatility may be on the horizon.
Their 10 day moving average will need to have a close eye kept on it this upcoming week, as if prices fall beneath it it will join many other resistance points right above their current price levels.
IWM has support at the $184.57 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.26:1), $182.79 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.55:1), $180.76 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.13:1) & $179.88 /share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.05:1) price levels, with resistance at the $186.87 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 4.62:1), $187.92 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 4.62:1), $187.92 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 4.62) & $188.36/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.75:1) price levels.
IWM ETF’s Price Level:Volume Sentiment Analysis Over The Past 1-2 Years
DIA ETF – SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF’s Technical Performance Over The Past Year
Their RSI is overbought at 77.53 & has been above the overbought 70-level since mid-November, with a MACD that has curled over set to make a bearish MACD crossover in the coming week.
Volumes were +29.24% above average last week compared to the year prior (4,539,983 vs. 3,512,913), which is noteworthy as it shows a lot of profit taking following a few weeks of advances, while the week’s price range itself did not make much of an attempt to advance higher.
Monday kicked the week off on a bearish note, although the session closed higher than it opened, but it still declined from the Friday prior’s close.
Tuesday’s session was interesting, as they had the second highest volume day of the week on a declining day, but resulted in a dragonfly doji, signaling both uncertainty, but that there may be a slight advance on the horizon.
Wednesday had the highest volume of the week on a wide-range candle whose upper shadow tested higher, but closed much lower than the open & had a slight lower shadow indicating that there was still some sentiment to test lower.
Thursday & Friday had the lowest volumes of the week, despite being the only advancing sessions, with Thursday resulting in a doji whose open & close were above the top half of the candle & Friday’s upper shadow hitting a new 52-week high but on the weakest volume of the week, which does not signal confidence in a move higher.
Their Average True Range is signaling a severe lack of volatility, which when you look at other times in the past year where it has dipped near this low there has been a consolidation period on the horizon.
Their 10 day moving average will be a point of interest to watch in the coming week, as it will need to provide the support to keep pushing DIA higher, as their other indicators & oscillators signal that they’re due to take a breather & cool off.
DIA has support at the $359.59 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $354.32 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1:0*), $349.45 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.17:1) & $343.16/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.41:1) price levels, with no resistance in the past year as it closed the week out on a new 52-week high.
DIA ETF’s Price Level:Volume Sentiment Analysis Over The Past 3-4 Years
The Week Ahead
Monday starts the week off on a quiet note, with no major market data announcements.
Casey’s General, FuelCell Energy & Oracle are all scheduled to report earnings on Monday.
Consumer Price Index, Core CPI, CPI Y-o-Y & Core CPI Y-o-Y are all due at 8:30 am on Tuesday, followed by the monthly U.S. Federal Budget at 2pm.
Tuesday is relatively quiet on the earnings report front.
Wednesday brings us Producer Price Index, Core PPI, PPI Y-o-Y & Core PPI Y-o-Y data at 8:30 am, with the FOMC Interest-Rate Decision announced at 2 pm & Fed Chairman Powell’s Press Conference at 2:30 pm.
Adobe, ABM Industries, Cognyte Software, Nordson, Photronics & REV Group report earnings on Wednesday.
Thursday morning is a busy one, with Initial Jobless Claims, Import Price Index, Import Price Index minus Fuel, U.S. Retail Sales & Retail Sales minus Autos data coming in at 8:30 am, followed by Business Inventories data at 10 am.
Costco Wholesale, Jabil & Lennar are all releasing earnings reports on Thursday.
Empire State Manufacturing Survey data is released Friday morning at 8:30 am, followed by Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization data at 9:15 am.
Darden Restaurants is scheduled to report earnings on Friday.
SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF gained +0.83% last week, as investors favored the Russell 2000 small caps & Dow Jones Industrial Average.
SPY ETF – SPDR S&P 500 ETF’s Technical Performance Over The Past Year
Their RSI is overbought at 74.12, with a MACD that is still bullish, but hanging on for life & trying to advance into more overbought territory, but looks set to roll over bearishly in the coming days.
Volumes were -23.93% below average last week compared to the year prior (62,392,500 vs. 82,018,080), with Thursday & Friday being the highest volume days of the week & Friday’s volume levels did not surpass last week’s high of volume, showing hesitancy on the part of market participants.
While volumes advanced day-over-day throughout the week, this is a signal of uncertainty, despite the recent 52-week high & not to be viewed as increasing confidence during the week.
Monday the week kicked off with a declining session with a doji candle, kicking the week off on the theme of caution.
Tuesday’s spinning top candle’s real body was concentrated in the lower range of the over candle, signaling that downside movement was imminent & that there was reluctance to edge higher.
Wednesday showed signs of optimism, with the open being above the day prior’s close & an upper shadow that tried to break higher, but profits were taken throughout the day’s session, pushing the prices lower until the day closed out lower than Tuesday’s session & with a slight lower shadow dipping into Tuesday’s candle’s real body.
Another sign of uncertainty emerged on Thursday, where the session opened higher than the day prior’s close, tested lower & dipped beneath the 10 day moving average’s support, but ultimately recovered as investors piled in & resulted in a spinning top with the real body of the candle concentrated on the high end of the day’s session, with a small upper shadow.
Friday resembled a last minute specialist breakout to the upside, testing the lower range of the candle’s shadow against the support of the 10 day moving average which held strong, but the upper shadow above the bullish close was roughly the same size as the lower shadow, which is not indicative of strength & signals further cautious outlook on the part of market participants.
Their Average True Range does not indicate a strong trend is in place, but has begun to flatten out after a half month of decline, signaling that we are likely to see a pivotal moment in the coming week; whether the new trend is up or down.
SPY has support at the $457.82 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2:0*), $454.82 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Even, 1:1), $452.08 (Volume Sentiment: Even, 1:1) & $438.14/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.21:1) price levels, with no resistance levels in the past year as the price is currently at a new 52-week high (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*).
SPY ETF’s Price Level:Volume Sentiment Over The Past 2-3 Years
QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF has the weakest week of the major indexes, nudging forward +0.11%, basically treading water.
QQQ ETF – Invesco QQQ Trust ETF’s Technical Performance Over The Past Year
Their RSI is currently just underneath the overbought level & sits at 67.66, while their MACD is primed to cross over bearishly & looks set to continue downwards into more bearish territory into the coming week.
Volumes were -33.47% below average last week compared to the year prior (36,239,367 vs. 52,884,565), which is a cause for concern given that Thursday’s declining session was the highest volume day of the week.
Friday’s advancing volume was the second highest day of the week in terms of volume, however it was narrowly higher than the declining volume of Wednesday’s session & neither broke above any of last week’s sessions’ volumes.
This signals that there is a skeptical outlook on the NASDAQ currently, which matches the narrative of the MACD, painting a picture of brief consolidation on the horizon at best in the near-term.
There also looks to be a potential bearish head & shoulders formation forming, showing five & a half months of build up, which will be something to keep an eye on heading into Q2-3 2024.
Their Average True Range is also flat, like SPY’s, signaling that there will likely be some movement to establish a new, stronger trend that begins this week, with QQQ’s looking strongly to the downside.
There is strong Buyers sentiment currently supporting QQQ, however, it should be noted that sentiment readings are always stronger at the extremes such as a 52-week high or low, as there has been limited price action at said levels.
There is currently -7.68% of cushion for QQQ’s share price before it reaches a seller dominated price level, with exception to the $376-379.99/share price box, which is currently 1:1 Buyers:Sellers.
QQQ has support at the $389.28 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $387.42 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.75:1), $380.28 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 6:1) & $373.74/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.1:1) price levels, with resistance only at the $394.14/share (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price level, as they are currently declining from their new 52-week high set last Thursday.
QQQ ETF’s Price Level:Volume Sentiment Over The Past 1-2 Years
IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF had the strongest week of the major indexes, advancing +3.11%, with Friday’s candle nearly jumping out of its shoes in terms of daily price range & closing well above the golden cross that was being created by the 10 & 200 day moving averages that day.
IWM ETF – iShares Russell 2000 ETF’s Technical Performance Over The Past Year
Their RSI is trending aggressively towards overbought after Friday’s wide range session & currently sits at 67.8, while their MACD is continuing higher due to Friday’s session after looking like it was set to lose steam & roll over bearishly last week.
Volumes were +11.49% above average compared to the year prior last week (33,473,717 vs. 30,023,244), but it should be noted that this is mostly on account of Friday’s session, whose volume eclipsed the volumes of the rest of the week & all but 4 sessions’ volumes throughout the year prior.
This does not necessarily indicate that there is strength in the move, and could likely have been market participants pivoting into small caps now before”the January effect” lifts small caps higher in the first half of next month.
Looking at how even the volumes of the early week declining days & then Wednesday & Thursday’s volumes also does not tell a story of strength & should be met with skepticism.
Monday’s session kicked the week off on an uncertain note for small cap names, with a slightly bearish day resulting in a spinning top candle.
Tuesday followed suit, although there was a much wider range on the candle’s real body, but the 10 day moving average was able to hold support & keep the declines from going too low.
Wednesday saw the power of the 200 day moving average’s resistance, as prices briefly fluctuated above it & tested higher for a bit, but the candle’s real body opened & closed below the 200 DMA.
It is also worth noting that they closed lower than they opened, despite finishing the day bullishly, which should be taken as a bearish situation.
Thursday’s candle was also a filled in black candle & a spinning top, that despite opening & closing above the support of the 200 DMA did not signal much confidence was in the air.
Friday was a very wide range day that exposed a few interesting bits of information from the market.
The day opened somewhere between the 10 DMA’s support & 200 DMA’s resistance & ultimately closed +2.92% higher for the day, however, the lower shadow of the day’s candle should be noted, as there was a bit of test to the downside that shouldn’t be ignored.
Their ATR is signaling that there is a stronger trend in play now after November did feature a steady advance, however the volatility of Friday’s session that has been added into the calculation does distort the otherwise slow advances of the month prior to appear like a stronger trend is in play than really is.
Prices are still in a seller dominated price level 1.26:1 & while there are buyers historically at a rate of 1.55:1 in the $182-183.99/share zone, the sellers resume control again until a ~3% drop in price.
The next 4 price zones are buyers dominated, before sellers lead the way back down to the 52-week low, which was hit in October.
It is worth noting that just as mentioned regarding stocks at/near their 52-week high, the volume readings are more extreme to one side or another when we reach price extremes, due to the lack of time spent in these price ranges.
IWM has support at the $184.57 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.26:1), $180.76 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.13:1), $179.88 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.05:1) & $179.49/share (200 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.05:1) price levels, with resistance at the $186.29 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 4.62:1), $186.87 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 4.62:1), $187.96 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 4.62:1) & $188.38/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.75:1) price levels.
IWM ETF’s Price Level:Volume Sentiment For The Past 1-2 Years
DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF ended the week second best of the major indexes, +2.61%, trailing on the Russell 2000, but still managing to close the week on a new 52-week high.
DIA ETF – SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF’s Technical Performance Over The Past Year
Their RSI is heavily overbought at 81.51, with a MACD that is still bullish, but looks to be beginning to lose steam & become ready to roll over for a bearish crossover in the coming sessions.
Volumes were -8.7% below average last week compared to the year prior (3,203,100 vs. 3,508,327), signaling a lack of enthusiasm & calling question to the strength of the gains that were achieved on Thursday & Friday.
Monday the week started off on unstable footing, resulting in a declining session with a spinning top candle, marking uncertainty among market participants.
Tuesday was another spinning top session, that despite nudging up to close bullishly, did not paint a picture of good things to come as the candle’s real body was concentrated on the lower end of the candle.
Wednesday the uncertainty continued, with prices closing lower than they opened, despite the day being bullish, which continued the story of caution, especially given how low the volumes were during the first three sessions of the week.
This lead up to the largely bullish days at the end of the week should’ve raised eyebrows of skepticism, particularly the gap up on Thursday that occurred on relatively average volumes.
Friday’s move higher should also be viewed with a critical eye, as while it did set a new 52-week high on strong volume, it stretched out oscillators such as the RSI to their highest overbought reading of the year.
Volume was strong (top 10 days by volume of the year), but this should be viewed as a last chance piling in for profits, which will be interesting to see the strength of in the coming week.
Another thing to keep an eye on this week will be the strength of support provided by the 10 day moving average, which is currently the closest support level to their price.
Given that we are at a price extreme the volume sentiment levels are don’t paint much of a picture as to what the strength of this support level will be, as the current ratio for the $352-355.99/share box is 1:0*.
Their Average True Range was indicating a more steady trend in November after the steady ascent from the mid-month gap up, but the violent movement of the last two days has disrupted that & now their ATR is looking flat, much like SPY & QQQ’s, indicating that a reversal in trend, possibly violent, is on the horizon.
They have enjoyed strength for the last couple of months, but if there is a proper correction there will be cause for concern, as after a -9.65% decline the next -5%+ is all seller dominated, minus the $308-311.99/share zone which historically has 1.76:1 Buyers:Sellers & the $288-291.99/share price zone, which has 1.38:1 Buyers:Sellers.
DIA has support at the $354.33 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1:0*), $354.32 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1:0*), $349.45 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.17:1) & $343.16/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.42:1) price levels, with no resistance levels as Friday’s session marked a new 52-week high for DIA (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*).
DIA ETF’S Price Level:Volume Sentiment For The Past 3-4 Years
The Week Ahead
Monday’s earnings reports include GitLab & Science Applications.
Factory Orders data is reported on Monday at 10 am.
AutoZone, AeroVironment, America’s Car-Mart, Asana, Box, Core & Main, Dave & Buster’s, Ferguson, G-III Apparel, MongoDB, Phreesia, SentinelOne, Signet Jewelers, Stitch Fix, Toll Brothers & Yext are all scheduled to report earnings on Tuesday.
Tuesday features S&P U.S. Services PMI data at 9:45 am, as well as ISM Services data & Job Openings data at 10 am.
ADP Employment data comes in Wednesday at 8:15 am, followed by U.S. Productivity (revision) & U.S. Trade Deficit data at 8:30 am.
Thursday’s earnings calls include Broadcom, Lululemon Athletica, BRP, Ciena, Cooper, DocuSign, Dollar General, GMS, Smith & Wesson Brands & Vail Resorts.
Initial Jobless Claims reports are released Thursday at 8:30 am, with Wholesale Inventories data at 10 am & Consumer Credit data at 3pm.
Hello Group is scheduled to report earnings on Friday.
U.S. Employment Report, U.S. Unemployment Rate, U.S. Hourly Wages & U.S. Hourly Wages Y-o-Y data are released at 8:30 am & Consumer Sentiment (prelim) data comes out at 10 am Friday
Markets have reached an interesting point again recently, with the S&P 500 & Dow Jones Industrial Average flirting with a new 52-week high, the NASDAQ breaking their most recent 52-week high & the Russell 2000 recently recovered after setting a new 52-week low.
However, volumes & oscillators are not currently convincing of strength in the markets, making it important to take a step back & see how recent history may impact the near-future.
Read our breakdown of the markets’ recent technicals, as well as an updated price level:volume sentiment reading, which breaks down the volume levels of the past 1-4 years for each index on a price percentage basis.
Technical Analysis & Price Level:Volume Sentiment Analysis For The S&P 500 (SPY)
SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF added +1.13% last week, faring the second worst of the indexes, second only to the NASDAQ.
SPY ETF – SPDR S&P 500 ETF’s Technical Performance Over The Past Year
Their RSI is overbought at 71.88 & their MACD is showing signals of losing steam & an impending bearish crossover.
Volumes were a cause for concern last week, falling -27.32% below average compared to the year prior (59,685,350 vs. 82,125,986) & really signaling uncertainty in the near-term market environment.
Monday’s wide-range candle & advancing session also looks weaker than it first appeared, given that it was lower than 3 of the 5 sessions of the week before, neck & neck with 1 of the 5 & only higher than the prior Monday’s session, which was a declining day.
Tuesday’s candle created a bearish harami pattern, but as it was a dragonfly doji created the set up for Wednesday & Friday’s slight increases.
Wednesday & Friday both resulted in dojis, however they were tied tightly to the range created by the upper shadow of Monday’s session’s candle.
Also bearish, they closed lower than they opened, despite opening slightly up each day, signaling that risk appetite is weak as we sit near 52-week highs.
Wednesday’s session tried to push a bit higher based on the upper shadow, but it appears that there is limited-to-no interest in surpassing the current 52-week high currently.
SPY’s Average True Range is also signaling that there is not much strength to the current price trend & indicates that there will be a cool-down period in the near-future, pending no market catalyst appear from earnings reports or data reported next week.
SPY does have more buyers than sellers at every price level between here & ~-7%, but if the $448 price level doesn’t hold up, the buyer-dominant sentiment weakens dramatically before giving way to seller dominated zones that have much more strength in terms of Sellers:Buyers.
There looks to be an additional 5-6% of declines that could come about if those buyer dominated zones give way, as the next strong level of buyers that is not nestled into the seller blocks is -13% from the current price.
SPY ETF – SPDR S&P 500 ETF’s Price Level:Volume Sentiment Over The Past 2-3 Years
SPY ETF – SPDR S&P 500 ETF’s Price Level:Volume Sentiment Over The Past 2-3 Years
SPY ETF – SPDR S&P 500 ETF’s Price Level:Volume Sentiment Over The Past 2-3 Years
Price Level:Volume Sentiment Analysis For SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF
$468 – NULL – 0:0*; +2.79% From Current Price Level
$464 – Buyers – 1.44:1; +1.91% From Current Price Level
$460 – Sellers – 1:0*; +1.03% From Current Price Level
$456 – Buyers – 2:0*; +0.15% From Current Price Level
$452 – Even – 1:1; -0.72% From Current Price Level – Current Price Box*
$448 – Buyers – 1.82:1; -1.6% From Current Price Level – 10 Day Moving Average*
$444 – Buyers – 1.03:1; -2.48% From Current Price Level
$440 – Buyers – 1.06:1; -3.36% From Current Price Level
$436 – Buyers – 1.21:1; -4.24% From Current Price Level
$432 – Buyers – 1.09:1; -5.12% From Current Price Level – 50 Day Moving Average*
$428 – Buyers – 1.16:1; -6% From Current Price Level
$424 – Sellers – 1.83:1; -6.87% From Current Price Level – 200 Day Moving Average*
$420 – Sellers – 2.65:1; -7.75% From Current Price Level
$416 – Buyers – 1.98:1; -8.63% From Current Price Level
$412 – Sellers – 1.04:1; -9.51% From Current Price Level
$408 – Buyers – 1.17:1; -10.39% From Current Price Level
$404 – Sellers – 1.15:1; -11.27% From Current Price Level
$400 – Sellers – 1.93:1; -12.15% From Current Price Level
$396 – Buyers – 2.65:1; -13.02% From Current Price Level
$392 – Buyers – 1.79:1; -13.9% From Current Price Level
$388 – Buyers – 1.03:1; -14.78% From Current Price Level
$384 – Sellers – 1.84:1; -15.66% From Current Price Level
$380 – Sellers- 2.38:1; -16.54% From Current Price Level
$376 – Sellers – 1.63:1; -17.42% From Current Price Level
$372 – Sellers – 1.23:1; -18.3% From Current Price Level
$368 – Sellers – 1.78:1; -19.17% From Current Price Level
$364 – Sellers – 1.86:1; -20.05% From Current Price Level
$360 -Buyers – 1.53:1; -20.93% From Current Price Level
$356 – Sellers – 4.89:1; -21.81% From Current Price Level
$352 – Sellers – 2.1:0*; -22.69% From Current Price Level
$348 – Sellers – 1.8:0*; -23.57% From Current Price Level
Technical Analysis & Price Level:Volume Sentiment Analysis For The NASDAQ (QQQ)
QQQ ETF – Invesco QQQ Trust ETF’s Technical Performance Over The Past Year
Their RSI is fluttering around the overbought level & sits currently at 69.03, but their MACD is aggressively barreling towards a bearish crossover in the coming sessions.
Volumes were also notably weak for QQQ this week, falling -24.6% below average compared to the year prior (39,920,300 vs. 52,941,855) as market participants got hesitant once reaching a new 52-week high & began to pump the brakes.
Monday opened strong, but the session’s volume was weaker than every session of the week prior’s & Tuesday’s bearish volume was neck & neck with Monday’s levels, as profits were eagerly taken.
Tuesday’s candle also formed a bearish harami with a dragonfly doji, similar to SPY’s set up, except QQQ was able to crack a new 52-week high on Wednesday’s spinning top session.
Given that Wednesday’s real body resides on the lower end of the day’s range & has a long upper shadow, it is safe to say that there is not much faith in strength at these price levels.
Friday’s doji candle will be of interest to watch into next week though, as it did not decline deep into Tuesday’s candle’s lower shadow, but the 10 day moving average is fast approaching & investors will want to know whether this will function as support or resistance in the near-term.
QQQ’s ATR also does not signal that this trend is particularly strong & implies that there is a cool-off/consolidation move in the making for the near-term.
From their current price, QQQ has no seller dominated price zones until a decline of ~7.5%, which may be regarded as a signal of strength, but note that beyond the nearest two supporting price levels with buyer sentiment the enthusiasm historically has waned & seller dominated zones account for the next 10%+ of declines from there, which should be cause for concern.
Once prices decline beyond $335.99/share there will be a lot of selling pressure historically, with no support until $312.31 which will be another thing to keep an eye on.
There is a good support zone between $303.99-311.99/share though, which would be a relief given that at that point prices would have declined by ~20%.
QQQ ETF – Invesco QQQ Trust ETF’s Price Level:Volume Sentiment Over The Past 1-2 Years
QQQ ETF – Invesco QQQ Trust ETF’s Price Level:Volume Sentiment Over The Past 1-2 Years
QQQ ETF – Invesco QQQ Trust ETF’s Price Level:Volume Sentiment Over The Past 1-2 Years
Price Level:Volume Sentiment Analysis For QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ)
$388 – NULL – 0:0*; -0.39% From Current Price Level – Current Price Box*
$384 – Buyers – 1.75:1; -1.41% From Current Price Level – 10 Day Moving Average*
$380 – Buyers – 6:1; -2.44% From Current Price Level
$376 – Even – 1:1; -3.47% From Current Price Level
$372 – Buyers – 1.1:1; -4.5% From Current Price Level
$368 – Buyers – 1.24:1; -5.52% From Current Price Level
$364 – Buyers – 1.11:1; -6.55% From Current Price Level – 50 Day Moving Average*
$360 – Buyers – 1.02:1; -7.58% From Current Price Level
$356 – Sellers – 1.24:1; -8.6% From Current Price Level
$352 – Buyers – 1.52:1; -9.63% From Current Price Level
$348 – Sellers – 1.3:1; -10.66% From Current Price Level
$344 – Sellers – 1.38:1; -11.68% From Current Price Level – 200 Day Moving Average*
$340 – Buyers – 2.11:1; -12.71% From Current Price Level
$336 – Buyers – 1.25:1; -13.74% From Current Price Level
$332 – Sellers – 6.13:1; -14.76% From Current Price Level
$328 – Sellers – 1.05:1; -15.79% From Current Price Level
$324 – Buyers – 2.6:1; -16.82% From Current Price Level
$320 – Sellers – 1.20:1; -17.85% From Current Price Level
$316 – Sellers – 1.97:1; -18.87% From Current Price Level
$312 – Sellers – 1.67:1; -19.9% From Current Price Level
$308 – Buyers – 1.19:1; -20.93% From Current Price Level
$304 – Buyers – 1.04:1; -21.95% From Current Price Level
$300 – Sellers – 2.2:1; -22.98% From Current Price Level
$296 – Buyers – 2.33:1; -24.01% From Current Price Level
$292 – Buyers – 1.72:1; -25.03% From Current Price Level
$288 – Sellers – 2.02:1; -26.06% From Current Price Level
$284 – Sellers – 1.59:1; -27.09% From Current Price Level
$280 – Buyers – 1.03:1; -28.11% From Current Price Level
$276 – Sellers – 1.06:1; -29.14% From Current Price Level
$272 – Sellers – 1.77:1; -30.17% From Current Price Level
$268 – Sellers – 1.32:1; -31.2% From Current Price Level
$264 – Buyers – 1.33:1; -32.22% From Current Price Level
$260 – Sellers – 4.4:1; -33.25% From Current Price Level
$256 – Sellers – 2.2:0*; -34.28% From Current Price Level
Technical Analysis & Price Level:Volume Sentiment Analysis For The Russell 2000 (IWM)
IWM ETF – iShares Russell 2000 ETF’s Technical Performance Over The Past Year
Their RSI is trending towards overbought after the gap up the week prior & sits at 60.38, while the MACD is beginning to show signs of exhaustion & looks like it may curl over bearishly in the coming days.
Volumes were +6.75% above average compared to the year prior (31,657,550 vs. 29,656,354), most likely attributed to people following the high volume trades of last week trying to make some last second profits.
IWM’s chart tells a different story than the previous two that we’ve reviewed, as they have recently bounced off of a 52-week low & been in recovery.
Monday had the third highest volume of the short week & prices made advances, but Tuesday’s declining session of profit taking was the highest volume session of the week, signaling a lack of strength at these price levels.
Wednesday featured a doji going into the holiday Thursday, where market participants sat unsure about which way to go next.
Friday’s candle is one of interest though, as we begin to see some of the downwards pressure that the 200 DMA is applying to IWM’s price & will be something to continue watching into next week to see if small caps can muster up the performance to break through the 200 DMA’s resistance.
Their ATR is also not indicating that there is much strength in the more recent price movements in terms of establishing a new trend.
IWM’s price level:volume sentiment shows that there is some support for ~5% from here in terms of the levels being buyer dominated over the past 1-2 years, but after that it is a seller dominated zone all the way through their 52-week low.
IWM’s 50 day moving average will be something to also keep an eye on, as it will continue to trend higher & is already the last support level that is buyer dominated before we enter that seller-dominated elevator down.
IWM ETF – iShares Russell 2000 ETF’s Price Level:Volume Sentiment Over The Past 1-2 Years
IWM ETF – iShares Russell 2000 ETF’s Price Level:Volume Sentiment Over The Past 1-2 Years
IWM ETF – iShares Russell 2000 ETF’s Price Level:Volume Sentiment Over The Past 1-2 Years
Price Level:Volume Sentiment For IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF
$198 – NULL – 0:0*; +10.41% From Current Price Level
$196 – Buyers – 5:1; +9.3% From Current Price Level
$194 – Buyers – 1.36:1; +8.18% From Current Price Level
$192 – Buyers – 1.10:1; +7.07% From Current Price Level
$190 – Sellers – 1.11:1; +5.95% From Current Price Level
$188 – Buyers – 2.75:1; +4.83% From Current Price Level
$186 – Buyers – 4.62:1; +3.72% From Current Price Level
$184 – Sellers – 1.26:1; +2.6% From Current Price Level
$182 – Buyers – 1.55:1; +1.49% From Current Price Level
$180 – Sellers – 1.13:1; +0.37% From Current Price Level
$178 – Buyers – 1.05:1; -0.74% From Current Price Level – Current Price Box & 200 Day Moving Average**
$176 – Buyers – 1.67:1; -1.86% From Current Price Level – 10 Day Moving Average*
$174 – Buyers – 1.2:1; -2.97% From Current Price Level
$172 – Buyers – 1.19:1; -4.09% From Current Price Level
$170 – Sellers – 2:1; -5.2% From Current Price Level
$168 – Sellers – 2:1; -6.32% From Current Price Level
$166 – Sellers – 1.36:1; -7.43% From Current Price Level
$164 – Sellers – 1.08:1; -8.55% From Current Price Level
$162 – Sellers – 2.58:1; -9.66% From Current Price Level
$160 – Sellers – 0.6:0*; -10.78% From Current Price Level
Technical Analysis & Price Level:Volume Sentiment Analysis For The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA)
DIA ETF – SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF’s Technical Performance Over The Past Year
Their RSI is overbought at 73.41 & their MACD is signaling overextension & that there is a near-term consolidation period on the horizon.
Volumes were noteworthy though, falling -27.03% below average compared to the year prior (2,565,383 vs. 3,515,596), which does not make the week’s gains anything of note.
DIA is approaching their current 52-week high, but based on the last 2 sessions’ candles will not have an easy time breaking it.
Monday’s session looks like the other three indexes, non-noteworthy volume on a wide range session, Tuesday’s candle formed a bearish engulfing pattern on Monday’s, but its higher positioning in the day prior’s range did set up the slight gains of the next two sessions for the large caps.
However, Wednesday & Thursday’s spinning tops are signaling even more indecision, particularly as the volumes have been weak.
Note too that Friday’s open is at the extension of Thursday’s upper shadow that was on a relatively tall upper shadow, which is more indicative of a pump into weakness than of actual strength.
Like all of the other indexes, their ATR is also not supporting a narrative of strength around recent price movements & does flash a signal of near-term caution.
Their 10 DMA is also going to be something to keep a close eye on, as it is currently moving upwards still, while being the second highest level of support from the current price.
Once it becomes the highest support level it will be worth noting whether it acts as support or gets broken through, as then only the $349.45/share will be support before prices enter the window from the gap that we wrote about last week.
Buyers currently are in the drivers seat for the next ~7% downwards, however should there not be enough support there that 7% decline can very easily become 12%+ in losses based on the seller dominated price zones that sit just below the buyer blocks.
DIA ETF – SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF’s Price Level:Volume Sentiment For The Past 3-4 Years
DIA ETF – SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF’s Price Level:Volume Sentiment For The Past 3-4 Years
DIA ETF – SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF’s Price Level:Volume Sentiment For The Past 3-4 Years
Price Level:Volume Sentiment For DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF
$356 – NULL – 0:0*; +0.62% From Current Price Level
$352 – Buyers – 1:0*; -0.51% From Current Price Level – Current Price Box*
$348 – Sellers – 1.17:1; -1.64% From Current Price Level – 10 Day Moving Average*
$344 – Buyers – 1.14:1; -2.77% From Current Price Level
$340 – Buyers – 1.41:1; -3.9% From Current Price Level
$336 – Buyers, 1.46:1; -5.03% From Current Price Level – 50 & 200 Day Moving Averages**
$332 – Sellers – 1.01:1; -6.16% From Current Price Level
$328 – Buyers – 1.17:1; -7.29% From Current Price Level
$324 – Sellers – 1.39:1; -8.42% From Current Price Level
$320 – Sellers – 1.29:1; -9.55% From Current Price Level
$316 – Sellers – 1.27:1; -10.68% From Current Price Level
$312 – Sellers – 1.79:1; -11.81% From Current Price Level
$308 – Buyers – 1.77:1; -12.95% From Current Price Level
$304 – Sellers – 1.1:1; -14.08% From Current Price Level
$300 – Sellers – 1.15:1; -15.21% From Current Price Level
$296 – Sellers – 1.09:1; -16.34% From Current Price Level
$292 – Sellers – 1.11:1; -17.47% From Current Price Level
$288 – Buyers – 1.38:1; -18.6% From Current Price Level
$284 – Sellers – 1.22:1; -19.73% From Current Price Level
$280 – Buyers – 1.6:1; -20.86% From Current Price Level
$276 – Buyers – 4:1; -21.99% From Current Price Level
$272 – Buyers – 6:1; -23.12% From Current Price Level
$268 – Buyers – 2.33:1; -24.25% From Current Price Level
$264 – Buyers – 2.33:1; -25.38% From Current Price Level
$260 – Even – 1:1; -26.51% From Current Price Level
$256 – Even – 1:1; -27.64% From Current Price Level
$252 – Buyers – 6:1; -28.77% From Current Price Level
$248 – Sellers – 0.6:0*; -29.9% From Current Price Level
$244 – NULL – 0:0*; -31.03% From Current Price Level
The Week Ahead
Monday kicks the week off with New Homes Sales data at 10 am.
Cerence & Zscaler also are due to report earnings on Monday.
S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index (20 Cities) data is released Tuesday at 9 am, followed by Consumer Confidence, Fed Governor Christopher Waller speaking & Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee speaking at 10 am, before Fed Governor Michelle Bowman speaks at 10:45 & the day winds down with Fed Governor Michael Barr speaking at 1:50 pm & 3:30 pm.
Tuesday’s earnings calls include AZEK, Bank of Montreal, CrowdStrike, Hewlett Packard Enterprise, Intuit, Leslie’s, NetApp, Pinduoduo, Splunk & Workday.
Wednesday delivers GDP (first revision), Advanced U.S. Trade Balance in Goods, Advanced Retail Inventories & Advanced Wholesale Inventories data at 8:30 am, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester speaking at 1:45 pm & the Fed Beige Book at 2 pm.
Dollar Tree, Salesforce, Arrowhead, Bilibili, Credo Technology Group, Donaldson, Farfetch, Five Below, Foot Locker, Hormel Foods, La-Z-Boy, Nutanix, Okta, Patterson Companies, Petco Health and Wellness, PVH, Snowflake, Synopsys, Vestis, Victoria’s Secret & Zuora are all scheduled to report earnings on Wednesday.
8:30 am Thursday will be busy, with Initial Jobless Claims, Personal Income (nominal), Personal Spending (nominal), PCE Index, Core PCE Index, PCE (Year-over-Year) & Core PCE (Year-over-Year) data being released, followed by New York Fed President John Williams speaking at 9:05 am, Chicago Business Barometer data at 9:45 am & Pending Home Sales data at 10 am.
Ulta Beauty, Academy Sports + Outdoors, Ambarella, American Woodmark, Big Lots, Cracker Barrel, Dell, Domo, Frontline, Kroger, PagerDuty, Royal Bank of Canada, Titan Machinery, Toronto-Dominion Bank, UBS AG, UiPath & Zumiez will all report earnings on Thursday.
Friday gives us Fed Governor Michael Barr speaking at 3 am, ISM Manufacturing data, Construction Spending & Austan Goolsbee speaking at 10 am, Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks at 11 am & Chair Powell & Lisa Cook speak to local leaders in Atlanta at 2 pm.
Genesco is scheduled to report earnings on Friday.
See you back here next week!
*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM or DIA AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***
SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF advanced +2.31% over the past week, faring second best to the small cap Russell 2000 index.
SPY ETF – SPDR S&P 500 ETF’s Technical Performance Over The Past Year
Their RSI is trending towards overbought conditions & sits at 69.61, while their MACD is currently bullish, but beginning to show signs of being over-extended & wearing out.
Volumes were -5.72% below average compared to the year prior (77,666,967 vs. 82,383,130), adding skepticism to last Tuesday’s gap up session that has led to the most recent price range it trades in.
Monday the week kicked off on a slightly negative note, resulting in a spinning top candlestick, a clear sign of indecision which was further confirmed by the low volume of the day’s session.
Tuesday’s gap up was the highest volume session of the week, but the price action was mostly consolidated to the lower range of the day’s candlestick, signaling that the tall upper shadow did not have much strength.
Wednesday’s session resulted in a doji, as investors didn’t know what to think & mostly sat still, while Thursday showed market participants were slightly inclined to take more risk, but the day’s session remained tightly range-bound.
Friday capped the week off with a spinning top, that if it did not have an upper shadow would have been a hanging man, giving a downbeat sentiment moving into a new week, but the price inched higher.
Tuesday’s gap will be a key area to keep an eye on in the coming days, as only the 10 day moving average is currently in a position of support within the window, with the next highest level of support being below it at $438.14.
Their Average True Range does not indicate that last week’s new range is particularly strong & should be watched carefully over the coming week, particularly if the resistance of the $452.08/share price level holds up & prices are unable to break through.
SPY has support at the $442.39 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.1:1), $438.14 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.21:1), $432.64 (50 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.09:1) & $431.49/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.05:1) price level, with resistance at the $452.08 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.13:1) & $457.82/share (52-Week High; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.2:0*) price levels.
SPY ETF’s Price Level:Volume Sentiment Over The Past 2-3 Years
QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF gained +2.02% last week, as market participants were least fond of the tech heavy index compared to the other major indexes.
QQQ ETF – Invesco QQQ Trust ETF’s Technical Performance Over The Past Year
Their RSI is trending towards overbought levels at 69.35, with their MACD still bullish but beginning to show signals of exhaustion & the top is curling over.
Volumes were -1.75% below average last week compared to the year prior (52,148,783 vs. 53,078,624), and a new 52-week high was hit, but the sentiment does not overly bullish currently, as all of the prices post-Tuesday’s gap up session are rangebound.
Monday kicked off the week on a downward note, however the candle was a doji, signaling that market participants did not have a clue as to whether they wanted to assume more risk or not.
Tuesday’s reaction to CPI data was a gap up, but most of the week’s sessions resulted in spinning tops, indicating that there is still a great deal of uncertainty & indecision in the marketplace.
Wednesday’s session set a new 52-week high, however prices were scared into closing the day lower than they opened, despite the day ending green.
Volumes continued to decline, Thursday as prices stuck around the range established on Tuesday by the gap up, but all eyes will be on whether or not that window begins to close this week, as the 52-week high did not encourage market participants to come out in droves & force the NASDAQ higher.
Their ATR also suggests that this price level may be short-lived & that there is not much strength propping price levels up currently.
There is ~2% between the current price & the next support level, which happens to sit below Tuesday’s window as well.
QQQ has support at the $380.28 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 4.25:1), $378.35 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.03:1), $373.74 (50 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.07:1) & $371.80/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.24:1) price level, with resistance at the $387.42 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.4:1) & $387.75/share (52-Week High; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.4:1) price levels.
QQQ ETF’s Price Level:Volume Sentiment Over The Past 1-2 Years
IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF jumped +5.43% last week after months of steady decline, mostly attributed to a gap up session on Tuesday.
IWM ETF – iShares Russell 2000 ETF’s Technical Performance Over The Past Year
Their RSI is trending towards overbought & sits at 60.33, while their MACD is showing signals of being overextended following Tuesday’s gap up session.
Volumes were +63.92% above average compared to the year prior (48,503,233 vs. 29,588,731) as market participants jumped back in on Tuesday following the CPI print in a session that eclipsed the sessions of the past 52-weeks.
Monday was a slightly bullish session that stayed neck & neck with Friday prior’s range.
Tuesday created a gap window that jumped almost above the top of the previous price range on the open & proceeded higher.
Wednesday’s candle resulted in a shooting star after rallying higher & temporarily breaking the resistance of the 200 day moving average before closing at the lower end of the day’s range, well below the 200 DMA.
Thursday saw some profit taking following the two high volume sessions with Friday’s candle sticking by the top of Thursday’s trading range, as market participants became unclear as to how strong the recent moves will hold up.
Their ATR is suggesting some consolidation into Tuesday’s window is on the near-term horizon, which will be where we see the strength of the support of their 10 & 50 day moving averages, both of which are currently sitting towards the upper end of the window.
IWM has more support in their price window than the previously mentioned indexes, mostly due to their more range-bound behavior & lack of runaway rallies.
Their current price is now ~10% above their 52-week low, making it especially interesting to keep an eye on their current support levels & how strong they are.
The $178.30 resistance level is also another place to keep an eye on, with Friday’s price action failing to close above it.
IWM has support at the $177.69 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.55:1), $177.23 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.55:1), $176.21 (50 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.55:1) & $175.65/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.08:1) price level, with resistance at the $178.30 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.25:1) & $178.45 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.25:1), $178.78 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.25:1) & $179.19/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.25:1) price levels.
IWM ETF’s Price Level:Volume Sentiment Over The Past 1-2 Years
DIA ETF – SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF’s Technical Performance Over The Past Week
Their RSI is pushing into overbought territory at 69.56 & their MACD is still bullish, but beginning to show signs of weakening.
Volumes were -6.72% below average compared to the year prior (3,294,200 vs. 3,531,437) as investors were content for the most part, with exception to Tuesday’s higher than average volume session.
Much like IWM, DIA’s window that was created Tuesday has more support touch-points within the window than SPY or QQQ.
Friday’s spinning top that closed lower than it opened is cause for concern & something that investors will want to keep in mind stepping into the new week.
DIA has support at the $344.13 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.36:1), $343.16 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.56:1), $340.64 (50 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.56:1) & $338.58/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.2:1) price level, with resistance at the $349.45 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.28:1) & $354.32/share (52-Week High; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.6:0*) price levels.
DIA ETF’s Price Level:Volume Sentiment Over The Past 3-4 Years
The Week Ahead
U.S. Leading Economic Indicators are released Monday at 10 am, followed by Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin making a TV appearance at 12 pm.
Monday’s earnings calls include Agilent, BellRing Brands, Keysight Technologies & Zoom Video Communications.
Existing Home Sales data is announced at 10 am Tuesday, with the Fed’s October 31-November 1st FOMC meeting minutes released at 2pm.
On Tuesday Abercrombie & Fitch, NVIDIA, Analog Devices, Autodesk, Baidu, Best Buy, Burlington Stores, Caleres, Dick’s Sporting Goods, Dycom, Guess?, Hibbett, HP, Jack In The Box, Jacobs Engineering, Kohl’s, Lowe’s, Medtronic, Nordstrom & Urban Outfitters are due to report earnings.
Wednesday kicks off with Initial Jobless Claims, Durable-goods Orders & Durable Goods-minus Transportation data at 8:30 am, followed by Consumer Sentiment (final) at 10 am.
Deere is scheduled to report earnings on Wednesday.
There are no major data announcements Thursday, as it is Thanksgiving.
Thursday (Thanksgiving) features earnings calls from Canadian banks Royal Bank of Canada & Toronto-Dominion Bank.
Friday has no noteworthy earnings reports scheduled & S&P Flash U.S. Services PMI & S&P Flash U.S. Manufacturing PMI data being released at 9:45 am.
See you back here next week!
*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM or DIA AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***
