Author: OptimizedValue

Markets have spent a lot of time reaching new all-time (SPY, QQQ & DIA) & 52-week highs (IWM) since our last index ETF price level:volume sentiment check in in April.

Throw in political uncertainty, geo-political conflicts globally & earnings season that are coming with high expectations & there is a recipe for increased volatility in the coming months.

With this in mind, the article below outlines the Buyer:Seller (or Seller:Buyer) sentiment at the various price levels that SPY (S&P 500), QQQ (NASDAQ 100), IWM (Russell 2000) & DIA (Dow Jones Industrial Average) ETFs have traded at over the past few years to gain insight into how market participants may feel at different support & resistance levels.

Due to the aforementioned new high price levels that each index ETF has been experiencing & the subdued volumes that we have seen for the past ~10 weeks most of the higher range price levels are still “NULL”, meaning that they are not 0, but there is not enough data currently to work with.

Additionally, you will notice as you go through the numbers that the higher prices tend to skew more towards the buyers, as there have been limited downside tests against these price levels, and the low volumes have not helped this.

Similarly, you will notice that there tend to be more sellers towards the lower ends of the price ranges.

Each section below contains a view of each index ETF’s chart (for a technical breakdown of each ETF’s chart please see this past weekend’s market review note), as well as a list of their current one year support & resistance levels with the volume sentiment noted beneath it on the table.

There is an additional table beneath this table with each price level’s sentiment, as well as a typed text version below that is able to be copied & pasted.

Note that “NULL, 0:0*” values denote areas that each name has traded at but with limited volume data to work with from a comparison standpoint in terms of creating a ratio of buyers:sellers (or vice versa).

Also, prices that do have a ratio of buyers:sellers (or vice versa) where the denominator is 0 are denoted with an asterisk “*” as well.

In the written lists of the price levels & volume sentiments the price levels that contain support & resistance levels are marked in BOLD.

Recall that at price extremes such as the highs that we have recently hit there will tend to be skewed data due to the small sample size & factor that into how you interpret each price level’s reported sentiment.

This is intended to serve as an additional tool to use during your due diligence process & is not meant to replace doing your own research & is not financial advice.

Price Level:Volume Sentiment Analysis For SPY (S&P 500) ETF

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF has been experiencing low volume levels since the last sentiment analysis note (4/24/24) & is coming off of a fresh all-time high.

They’ve got the least one year support levels due to the way their price has advanced, making the list below even more important to review in the near-term, especially as their 10 day moving average has curled over bearishly above the price & is applying downward pressure on it.

One interesting thing to note is that in the event of a 10% decline from their recent all-time high they dive into a seller dominated area in terms of their support levels, which get more & more seller oriented as the price gets lower.

Should that be tested it will be interesting to see if the seller ratio gets diluted & there is strong support, or if prices continue lower & find their footing & traction at one of the next support levels, which have much more buyer pressure hsitorically.

Below is the list of the volume sentiments for SPY at the price levels it has traded at over the past 2-3 years.

$570 – NULL – 0:0*, +2.77% From Current Price Level

$565 – NULL – 0:0*, +1.87% From Current Price Level

$560 – Buyers – 1.6:1, +0.96% From Current Price Level

$555 – Buyers – 2:1, +0.06% From Current Price Level – 10 Day Moving Average*

$550 – Buyers – 2:1, -0.84% From Current Price Level – Current Price Level*

$545 – Buyers – 2:1, -1.74% From Current Price Level

$540 – Sellers – 1.22:1, -2.64% From Current Price Level

$535 – Buyers – 0.7:0*, -3.54% From Current Price Level – 50 Day Moving Average*

$530 – Buyers – 1.5:1, -4.44% From Current Price Level

$525 – Buyers – 5.6:1, -5.35% From Current Price Level

$520 – Sellers – 1.38:1, -6.25% From Current Price Level

$515 – Buyers – 2.35:1, -7.15% From Current Price Level

$510 -Even – 1:1, -8.05% From Current Price Level

$505 – Sellers – 1.24:1, -8.95% From Current Price Level

$500 – Sellers – 1.31:1, -9.85% From Current Price Level

$496 – Sellers – 1.69:1, -10.57% From Current Price Level

$492 – Buyers – 1.7:1, -11.3% From Current Price Level

$488 – Buyers – 1.27:1, -12.02% From Current Price Level – 200 Day Moving Average*

$484 – Buyers – 1.22:1, -12.74% From Current Price Level

$480 – Buyers – 1.3:0*, -13.46% From Current Price Level

$476 – Buyers – 1.14:1, -14.18% From Current Price Level

$472 – Buyers – 2.25:1, -14.9% From Current Price Level

$468 – Buyers – 1.1:1, -15.62% From Current Price Level

$464 – Sellers – 1.35:1, -16.34% From Current Price Level

$460 – Buyers – 0.6:0*, -17.06% From Current Price Level

$456 – Buyers – 1.21:1, -17.79% From Current Price Level

$452 – Buyers – 2.9:0*, -18.51% From Current Price Level

$448 – Buyers – 1.33:1, -19.23% From Current Price Level

$444 – Buyers – 1.48:1, -19.95% From Current Price Level

$440 – Sellers – 1.12:1, -20.67% From Current Price Level

$436 – Buyers – 1.08:1, -21.39% From Current Price Level

$432 – Buyers – 1.14:1, -22.11% From Current Price Level

$428 – Buyers – 1.09:1, -22.83% From Current Price Level

$424 – Buyers – 1.02:1, -23.56% From Current Price Level

$420 – Sellers – 1.23:1, -24.28% From Current Price Level

$416 – Sellers – 2.62:1, -25% From Current Price Level

$412 – Buyers – 1.84:1, -25.72% From Current Price Level

$408 – Sellers – 1.22:1, -26.44% From Current Price Level

$404 – Buyers – 1.88:1, -27.16% From Current Price Level

$400 – Sellers – 1.42:1, -27.88% From Current Price Level

$396 – Sellers – 2:1, -28.6% From Current Price Level

$392 – Buyers – 2.18:1, -29.32% From Current Price Level

$388 – Buyers – 2.2:1, -30.05% From Current Price Level

$384 – Sellers – 1.04:1, -30.77% From Current Price Level

$380 – Sellers – 1.93:1, -31.49% From Current Price Level

$376 – Sellers – 2.5:1, -32.21% From Current Price Level

$372 – Sellers – 1.65:1, -32.93% From Current Price Level

$368 – Sellers – 1.26:1, -33.65% From Current Price Level

$364 – Sellers – 1.72:1, -34.37% From Current Price Level

$360 – Sellers – 1.79:1, -35.09% From Current Price Level

$356 – Buyers – 1.22:1, -35.82% From Current Price Level

$352 – Sellers – 4.25:1, -36.54% From Current Price Level

$348 – Sellers – 3:0*, -37.26% From Current Price Level

$344 – Sellers – 0.6:0*, -37.98% From Current Price Level

$340 – NULL – 0:0*, -38.7% From Current Price Level

Price Level:Volume Sentiment Analysis For QQQ (NASDAQ 100) ETF

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF that tracks the NASDAQ 100 has also just come off of setting fresh all-time highs & is in a similar, but slightly more bearish technical position than SPY.

While QQQ’s ascent was more controlled than SPY’s which gives it more support levels, but if the 50 day moving average is crossed bearishly it will be imperative to assess the strength of each support level on its way down, especially as the top of the support from January-April’s trading range is at a Seller dominated price level (2.3:0*).

Below is a list of QQQ’s volume sentiment at each price level they’ve traded at for the last 2-3 years.

$505 – NULL – 0:0*, +4.7% From Current Price Level

$500 – Buyers – 0.4:0*, +3.67% From Current Price Level

$496 – Buyers – 2:0*, +2.84% From Current Price Level

$492 – Buyers – 0.6:0*, +2.01% From Current Price Level

$488 – Sellers – 4:1, +1.18% From Current Price Level – 10 Day Moving Average*

$484 – Buyers – 1.3:0*, +0.35% From Current Price Level

$480 – Sellers – 1.09:1, -0.48% From Current Price Level – Current Price Level*

$476 – Sellers – 1.11:1, -1.31% From Current Price Level

$472 – Buyers – 2.5:1, -2.14% From Current Price Level

$468 – NULL – 0:0*, -2.97% From Current Price Level – 50 Day Moving Average*

$464 – Buyers – 0.7:0*, -3.8% From Current Price Level

$460 – Even – 1:1, -4.63% From Current Price Level

$456 – Buyers – 0.9:0*, -5.46% From Current Price Level

$452 – Buyers – 1.62:1, -6.29% From Current Price Level

$448 – Sellers – 2.3:0*, -7.12% From Current Price Level

$444 – Buyers – 11.5:1, -7.94% From Current Price Level

$440 – Buyers – 1.76:1, -8.77% From Current Price Level

$436 – Buyers – 1.25:1, -9.6% From Current Price Level

$432 – Sellers – 2.14:1, -10.43% From Current Price Level

$428 – Buyers – 1.77:1, -11.26% From Current Price Level

$424 – Sellers – 1.02:1, -12.09% From Current Price Level – 200 Day Moving Average*

$420 – Sellers – 1.74:1, -12.92% From Current Price Level

$416 – Buyers – 1.8:0*, -13.75% From Current Price Level

$412 – Sellers – 2:0*, -14.58% From Current Price Level

$408 – Buyers – 1.77:1, -15.41% From Current Price Level

$404 – Buyers – 4.86:1, -16.24% From Current Price Level

$400 – Sellers – 1.04:1, -17.07% From Current Price Level

$396 – Buyers – 1.17:1, -17.9% From Current Price Level

$392 – Buyers – 2.17:1, -18.73% From Current Price Level

$388 – Buyers – 2.6:0*, -19.56% From Current Price Level

$384 – Sellers – 1.74:1, -20.38% From Current Price Level

$380 – Buyers – 2.84:1, -21.21% From Current Price Level

$376 – Buyers – 3.86:1, -22.04% From Current Price Level

$372 – Sellers – 1.04:1, -22.87% From Current Price Level

$368 – Sellers – 1.46:1, -23.7% From Current Price Level

$364 – Buyers – 1.55:1, -24.53% From Current Price Level

$360 – Buyers – 1.17:1, -25.36% From Current Price Level

$356 – Buyers – 1.21:1, -26.19% From Current Price Level

$352 – Sellers – 1.64:1, -27.02% From Current Price Level

$348 – Buyers – 2.53:1, -27.85% From Current Price Level

$344 – Buyers – 1.47:1, -28.68% From Current Price Level

$340 – Even – 1:1, -29.51% From Current Price Level

$336 – Buyers – 1:0*, -30.34% From Current Price Level

$332 – Buyers – 2:1, -31.17% From Current Price Level

$328 – Sellers – 1.23:1, -32% From Current Price Level

$324 – Buyers – 3.83:1, -32.82% From Current Price Level

$320 – Buyers – 2.5:1, -33.65% From Current Price Level

$316 – Buyers – 1.02:1, -34.48% From Current Price Level

$312 – Sellers – 2.75:1, -35.31% From Current Price Level

$308 – Buyers – 1.69:1, -36.14% From Current Price Level

$304 – Buyers – 2.55:1, -36.97% From Current Price Level

$300 – Sellers – 1.25:1, -37.8% From Current Price Level

$296- Buyers – 1.33:1, -38.63% From Current Price Level

$292 – Buyers – 2.5:1, -39.46% From Current Price Level

$288 – Sellers – 1.06:1, -40.29% From Current Price Level

$284 – Sellers – 1.11:1, -41.12% From Current Price Level

$280 – Sellers – 1.1:1, -41.95% From Current Price Level

$276 – Buyers – 1.17:1, -42.78% From Current Price Level

$272 – Sellers – 1.78:1, -43.61% From Current Price Level

$268 – Buyers – 1.03:1, -44.44% From Current Price Level

$264 – Sellers – 1.18:1, -45.26% From Current Price Level

$260 – Sellers – 1.84:1, -46.09% From Current Price Level

$256 – Sellers – 5.2:0*, -46.92% From Current Price Level

$252 – NULL – 0:0*, -47.75% From Current Price Level

Price Level:Volume Sentiment Analysis For IWM (Russell 2000) ETF

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF has set a fresh 52-week high recently, but has not reset its all-time high unlike the other three index ETFs.

The nature which IWM trades vs. SPY & QQQ is much more controlled & more like oscillations around a price range that steadily advance, whereas the other two ETFs favor more rapid ascents, which provides IWM with more support levels near their current price.

Below is a list of IWM’s volume sentiment at the price levels it’s traded at over the past 2-3 years.

$228 – NULL – 0:0*, +3.5% From Current Price Level

$224 – NULL – 0:0*, +1.68% From Current Price Level

$220 -NULL – 0:0*, -0.13% From Current Price Level – Current Price Level*

$216 – NULL – 0:0*, -1.95% From Current Price Level

$212 – NULL – 0:0*, -3.76% From Current Price Level – 10 Day Moving Average*

$208 – Buyers – 2.4:0*, -5.58% From Current Price Level

$204 – Buyers – 1.97:1, -7.39% From Current Price Level – 50 Day Moving Average*

$200 – Buyers – 1.13:1, -9.21% From Current Price Level

$198 – Buyers – 2.08:1, -10.12% From Current Price Level

$196 – Buyers – 1.25:1, -11.03% From Current Price Level

$194 – Buyers – 1.29:1, -11.93% From Current Price Level – 200 Day Moving Average*

$192 – Sellers – 3.79:1, -12.84% From Current Price Level

$190 – Buyers – 1.08:1, -13.75% From Current Price Level

$188 – Sellers – 1.46:1, -14.66% From Current Price Level

$186 – Buyers – 4:1, -15.57% From Current Price Level

$184 – Buyers – 3.55:1, -16.47% From Current Price Level

$182 – Buyers – 1.03:1, -17.38% From Current Price Level

$180 – Sellers – 1.23:1, -18.29% From Current Price Level

$178 – Buyers – 1.17:1, -19.2% From Current Price Level

$176 – Buyers – 1.97:1, -20.11% From Current Price Level

$174 – Buyers – 1.52:1, -21.01% From Current Price Level

$172 – Buyers – 1.28:1, -21.92% From Current Price Level

$170 – Sellers – 1.88:1, -22.83% From Current Price Level

$168 – Sellers – 1.16:1, -23.74% From Current Price Level

$166 – Sellers – 1.85:1, -24.64% From Current Price Level

$164 – Sellers – 5.25:1, -25.55% From Current Price Level

$162 – Even – 1:1, -26.46% From Current Price Level

$160 – Buyers – 1.2:1, -27.37% From Current Price Level

$158 – NULL – 0:0*, -28.28% From Current Price Level

Price Level:Volume Sentiment Analysis For DIA (Dow Jones Industrial Average) ETF

DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF‘s chart is much closer to IWM’s than SPY or QQQ’s, primarily because the latter have benefitted greatly from NVDA & other AI oriented components that the former two do not have.

As a result, they too have more local support levels, but it is important to note that the overwhelming majority of them are heavily buyer dominated, which means in the event of a decline we’ll see these figures become diluted

Below is a list of the volume sentiment at each of the price levels DIA has traded at for the last 3-4 years.

$416 – NULL – 0:0*, +2.93% From Current Price Level

$412 – NULL – 0:0*, +1.94% From Current Price Level

$408 – NULL – 0:0*, +0.95% From Current Price Level

$404 – NULL – 0:0*, -0.04% From Current Price Level

$400 – NULL – 0:0*, -1.03% From Current Price Level – 10 Day Moving Average*

$396 – Buyers – 2:1, -2.02% From Current Price Level

$392 – Buyers – 2.6:1, -3.01% From Current Price Level – 50 Day Moving Average*

$388 – Buyers – 1.67:1, -4% From Current Price Level

$384 – Buyers – 1.05:1, -4.99% From Current Price Level

$380 – Buyers – 1.58:1, -5.98% From Current Price Level

$376 – Buyers – 1.75:1, -6.97% From Current Price Level

$372 – Buyers- 1.44:1, -7.95% From Current Price Level – 200 Day Moving Average*

$368 – Buyers – 1.88:1, -8.94% From Current Price Level

$364 – Even, 1:1, -9.93% From Current Price Level

$360 – Buyers – 0.2:0*, -10.92% From Current Price Level

$356 – Buyers – 1.2:1, -11.91% From Current Price Level

$352 – Buyers – 0.1:0*, -12.9% From Current Price Level

$348 – Buyers – 14:1, -13.89% From Current Price Level

$344 – Even – 1:1, -14.88% From Current Price Level

$340 – Buyers – 1.31:1, -15.87% From Current Price Level

$336 – Buyers – 1.5:1, -16.86% From Current Price Level

$332 – Buyers – 1.6:1, -17.85% From Current Price Level

$328 – Sellers – 1.09:1, -18.84% From Current Price Level

$324 – Buyers – 1.21:1, -19.83% From Current Price Level

$320 – Sellers – 1.41:1, -20.82% From Current Price Level

$316 – Sellers – 1.43:1, -21.81% From Current Price Level

$312 – Buyers – 1.04:1, -22.8% From Current Price Level

$308 – Sellers – 1.61:1, -23.79% From Current Price Level

$304 – Buyers – 1.29:1, -24.78% From Current Price Level

$300 – Buyers – 1.33:1, -25.77% From Current Price Level

$296 – Buyers – 1.14:1, -26.76% From Current Price Level

$292 – Even – 1:1, -27.75% From Current Price Level

$288 – Sellers – 1.86:1, -28.74% From Current Price Level

$284 – Sellers – 1.33:1, -29.73% From Current Price Level

$280 – Sellers – 11:1, -30.72% From Current Price Level

$276 – NULL – 0:0*, -31.71% From Current Price Level

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM OR DIA AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF fell -1.96% last week as low volumes continued on, while the VIX closed at 16.52, indicating a one day implied move of +/-1.04% & a one month implied move of +/-4.77%.

For those who missed it, check out last week’s post about how frequently SPY performs inside & outside of the VIX’s implied daily range & under varying levels of volume fluctuations here.

Their RSI is at the neutral level of 50.16 after being overbought for weeks, which will make the coming sessions interesting as we watch to see if 50 is deemed “enough is enough”, or if it continues sinking further.

SPY’s MACD is bearish & looks content to continue lower in the coming week based on its histogram & past history, which if proves true will show RSI values moving further downward towards the 30 mark, oversold territory.

Volumes were still weak for SPY, -27.8% below the prior year’s average volume (51,178,120 vs. 70,887,296), which is a cause for concern given that the highest volume sessions were on declining days where money was flowing out of SPY.

Volume will remain a key element of trade for all ETFs discussed in this article in the coming week, as it will lend clues into the true sentiment of market participants behind whatever price moves we experience.

Monday began the week indicating that there was some weakness on the horizon last week, as the session resulted in a long-legged doji candle on mediocre at best volume, slightly advancing.

Tuesday’s high marked a new 52-week & all-time high for SPY, but the weakness in volume indicated that there was about to be a change of tune from market participants, which came about on Wednesday, when prices opened on a gap down on volumes that eclipsed the prior two days & entire month of July.

After the opening gap down on Wednesday prices tried to stay above the 10 day moving average’s support, including the test higher shown by the session’s upper shadow, but ultimately the day closed lower, right below the 10 DMA’s resistance.

Thursday opened slightly higher than Wednesday’s close & tested slightly higher, before tumbling to close well below the day’s open & the resistance of the 10 DMA.

Risk-off sentiment carried through into Friday, where prices again opened lower, made a modest attempt at going higher, before ultimately continuing to decline -0.66% for the session on the week’s strongest volume.

As previously noted, volume will be key for all indexes this week, as earnings calls & PCE on Friday have the potential to cause markets to jump around a bit, but the conviction behind the jump will be more important than the actual day-over-day percent changes.

Another area to keep an eye on for SPY & the other index ETFs is going to be their oscillators & indicators.

Following a three consecutive session decline things such as their RSI & MACD look markedly bearish, but based on their neutral RSI there is potential for early signals as to what comes next based on how this week’s changes to it play out.

RSI does not have to go from overbought to oversold & can just as easily resume upward movement from the neutral level where it sits now.

This seems unlikely based on how aggressive last week’s declines were & due to the fact that the 10 DMA has now curled over & is applying downwards pressure on SPY’s price.

SPY’s current share price sits midway between the resistance of the 10 DMA & the support of the 50 DMA, which happens to be SPY’s nearest support level., ~2% below the current price.

As was noted last week, SPY’s price behavior of recent following the bearish engulfing session of two Thursday’s ago have some similarities, making it likely to see some form of price consolidation in a controlled decline between the two moving averages in the near-term (similar to last July & August’s price behavior).

Should this hold true & prices drop below the 50 DMA & march lower towards SPY’s other support levels.

In the event of a 10% decline from the recently set all-time high, SPY’s price would decline to $508.64, which would mean there’d be a test of the support level at $509.11 that was established in late-April.

A decline to $544.99 would put SPY into a seller dominated price zone that would line it up for a test of the 50 DMA’s support, based on the limited data for these newly reached high price levels & the buyer:seller volume ratio.

Another important consideration when looking at the strength of support levels this close to all-time highs is that the data will be skewed towards the buyers, as most of the price levels have not been challenged much while prices marched higher.

With that in mind & looking at the most recent data below (will post a volume sentiment analysis later this week), the $525-529.99/share price level is the strongest in terms of historic buyer:seller volume sentiment.

Should prices continue lower through that & reach the $510-514.99/share level support will not be as strong, however the same concept related to the buyer’s strength at the high levels applies to the sellers strength at the levels that have historically seen more correcting price action to the downside before moving upwards again.

For the coming week expect to se further consolidation with perhaps a session or two of breath catching & mild advances until prices become wedged in tightly between the 10 & 50 DMA, unless there is some bad news event that causes outright sharp declines to continue.

Higher volatility & a higher Average True Range reading will likely continue into the next few weeks.

SPY has support at the $539.71 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.7:0*, $531.35 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.5:1), $522.92 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.39:1) & $516.69/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.35:1) price levels, with resistance at the $557.39 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.6:1) & $565.16/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF that tracks the NASDAQ 100 had the worst week of the major four index ETFs, declining -3.96% for the week, as market participants shied away from the tech-heavy index.

Their RSI crossed over the neutral 50 level via Wednesday’s gap down session & has continued moving towards oversold levels, currently sitting at 50.

QQQ’s MACD is bearish & its histogram isn’t indicating signs of slowing down in the near-term, at least until the 50 day moving average is tested.

Volumes were -8.06% below average compared to the previous year’s average (40,935,280 vs. 44,522,493), as some life was breathed back into QQQ last week.

As noted in previous weeks’ posts, due to the length of time that volumes were subdued (9+ weeks) the total average volume of the past year has gone down as 10 weeks is ~19% of the year.

This should also be taken into consideration when reviewing the volume sentiment data that was just discussed for SPY & will continue to be discussed throughout the article, as much of the price action at the levels discussed took place within this relatively calm period.

QQQ’s week kicked off on a bit more ominous looking note than SPY’s, with Monday’s session resulting in a long-legged doji as well that was a slight day-over-day increase from the prior Friday, where volumes were actually not terribly weak if compared to the previous few month’s volume levels.

Tuesday had weaker volume indicating that people were becoming hesitant & the hanging man candle that closed lower than it opened (bearish signal) showed there was blood in the water, which was further confirmed with the temporary intra-day breaking below QQQ’s 10 DMA’s support.

QQQ jumped off the diving board aggressively on Wednesday, where the week’s highest volume session opened on a gap down & didn’t look back, continuing lower throughout the day to close near its low price & showing that traders had lost faith in the two month rally.

Thursday opened midway between Wednesday’s price range, only for the bleeding to continue as sellers came out in droves once again forcing prices lower & opening the door to further near-term declines based on the lower shadow of the session’s candle.

It became very clear that there was little-to-no enthusiasm left for QQQ & the week closed out on the same note, a risk-off into the weekend Friday session that continued pushing prices lower on a -0.89% daily decline.

There were a few glimmers of hope for QQQ that SPY did not share, such as more upside appetite on Friday based on the candle’s upper shadow & the fact that seller volume pressure went down each day after Wednesday, whereas SPY’s negative volume sessions only saw more & more volume each successive day.

Part of the former may be attributed to the fact that QQQ is closer to its 50 DMA’s support than SPY is, which put some upside pressure on their price.

Similar themes for QQQ’s near-term future were outlined in SPY’s section, as they have behaved in similar fashions in the recent AI-frenzy.

QQQ’s volume patterns will be important in predicting how prices will behave, particularly as earnings calls begin featuring more names that are NASDAQ components, as so far earnings calls have mostly been financial companies, which are not components of QQQ.

A -10% decline from QQQ’s all-time high that was set two weeks ago would bring prices to $453.17/share, putting it within the range of the Q1-Q2 consolidation range.

Should prices break down below the 50 DMA’s support that looks primed to be the destination of choice, especially given there is little-to-no data of value in terms of buyer:seller pressure for the $468-471.99/share price zone & the $460-463.99/share zone is a low volume gridlock between an even number of buyer & seller sentiment.

Given how much QQQ has already shed the more buyer-oriented extreme prices have passed, and similar to SPY, the $448-451.99/share zone that is currently lopsided to the sellers could become a strong support level that evens out vs. the current 2.3:0 ratio that favors the sellers.

Like SPY, expect to see QQQ’s Average True Range stay high in the coming week(s) as increasing volatility looks primed to continue.

QQQ has support at the $469.98 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $459.85 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.9:0*), $448.63 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2.3:0*) & $447.34/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 11.5:1) price levels, with resistance at the $491.38 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 4:1) & $503.52/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.4:0*) price levels.

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF had the strongest weekly performance of the major index ETFs on revived volume, advancing +1.74%.

Their RSI crossed back from overbought territory on Wednesday/Thursday & sits at 63.73, while their MACD is still bullish but has curled over looking to likely cross the signal line by mid-week, which the histogram supports as it too is falling.

Volumes were +61.32% above average last week compared to the previous year’s average (54,809,160 vs. 33,976,390), reflecting a healthy mix of growth & profit taking when combined with the volumes of late in the week prior.

Monday continued IWM’s rally from the previous week, as a gap up open near the prior Friday’s high set the stage for another session of marching higher, although volumes were signaling that there was waning enthusiasm at these price levels.

Tuesday made one last march higher on a gap up session that had a wide price range as indicated by the large daily candle & the highest volume of the week showed that there was going to be one last dive into the pool before it became time to head out.

Wednesday was the major profit taking session, where declining session volume was only -2.7% below Tuesday’s volume.

Further pain was on the horizon though as the gravestone doji (bearish) candle also created a bearish harami pattern on the two highest volume sessions of the week; there was a marked change of sentiment coming from market participants & weakness began emerging.

This carried on for the rest of the week, when Thursday opened on a gap down & despite trying to rally higher ultimately closed lower & the candle’s lower shadow signaled that there was more appetite for prices to continue declining.

Thursday’s volume also showed that profit taking was still alive & healthy in the wake of the prior week’s run up for IWM & the gap between Monday & Tuesday’s candles was filled.

Friday ended the week on a note of uncertainty, as prices opened lower, wanted to advance but ultimately declined for the day & resulted in a spinning top.

The session’s volume waned from the levels seen over the prior six sessions indicating that there was still profit taking taking place but that folks were not certain of what direction IWM should be moving in next.

IWM’s week ahead looks a bit different than SPY or QQQ’s given they recently broke out of a months-long trading range & are now working their way back towards the support of the 10 day moving average (~2% below Friday’s closing price), where there is also other local support levels, notable at $211.29 & between a zone of $209.19-209.29.

IWM’s support level strength will also have a few caveats, as prices are currently in a “NULL” range where there has yet to be enough data to sample in regards to buyer:seller strength, but there has been activity.

The next 8-10% downward is all buyer dominated, with the $198-199.99 zone currently the strongest & no seller zones until $192-193.99 (although that one is quite seller heavy, at 3.79:1).

IWM has support at the $212.97 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $211.29 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.4:0*), $209.29 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.4:0*) & $209.19/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.4:0*) price levels, with resistance at the $226.64/share (52-Week High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF gained +0.71% last week, as volumes returned with Tuesday’s bullish session being the second highest volume session of the year.

Their RSI has fallen from overbought levels since Thursday’s declines & currently sits at 61, while their MACD has curled over aggressively bearishly towards the signal line & the histogram shows impending weakness.

Volumes were +39.98% above average compared to the year prior last week (4,934,840 vs. 3,525,322), as it appears nature has (at least temporarily) healed, but the same concerns mentioned prior about how ~20% of the annualized average volume calculation has brought lower input levels & thus a lower average.

DIA is similar to IWM these days, as we’ve noted weekly for months now, mostly due to the fact that NVDA & other AI names are not components of them & have been driving SPY & QQQ higher for months now.

Monday kicked off last week on higher than average volume for DIA vs. the levels seen for the last few months, but indecision was in the air as the session opened up a gap up, but closed on a doji.

Tuesday the buyers came out in bunches to force prices to open on a gap up & a wide range session that resulted in a strong advance.

The tide signaled impending change on Wednesday though, when prices opened below Tuesday’s close & forced their way higher, but on less enthusiastic volume, indicating that there wasn’t much fuel left in the tank & signaling that there would indeed be some near-term profit taking.

Had Wednesday’s open not been below Tuesday’s close there would have been an evening star pattern created based on Thursday’s declining session, where the profit takers came out of the woodwork forcing the second highest volume session of the week on declines.

While it’s not a traditional shooting star, Thursday’s close carries with it the same negative sentiment in terms of a daily candle shape, bears adamantly denied the bullish attempt higher that did reset the all-time high for DIA & forced the close to be lower on the day.

Friday the negative sentiment continued, as volumes were slightly lower but still high on a gap down open that ultimately resulted in further declines on the day heading into the close.

The day’s lower shadow is larger than the upper one, signaling that there was (and still is) more room for downside movement as far as market participants are concerned, with the proximity of the 10 day moving average’s support to the price likely being one of the factors that managed to keep the close as high as it was.

IWM & DIA have traded similarly while they missed out on the AI-mania buying craze, and all eyes will be on watching the strength of the 10 DMA’s support & how the consolidation/trading range of the past few months holds up as strength of support levels.

Based on how congested the space is between the 50 & 10 DMAs it is unclear if if prices will wind up consolidating between them ever or if we skip to them dipping below the two moving averages & then hoping for strength of support from the levels in the $380’s, in which case the $383-383.99 zone will likely be the strongest based on the total number of touch-points there.

Should those be broken, the $373-374 range also has a handful of support points, including the 200 day moving average & the next lowest level has the strongest buyer:seller sentiment ($368-371.99 is 1.88:1 Buyers:Sellers).

Daily volumes will give the clues as to what might happen & should be watched closely in the next few weeks.

DIA has support at the $401.35 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $399.64 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2:1), $396.94 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2:1) & $395.40/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.6:1) price levels, with resistance at the $413.66/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

The Week Ahead

The new week kicks off on a quiet note as there is no major economic data scheduled for release on Monday.

Monday’s before the bell earnings reports include Bank of Hawaii, IQVIA, Truist Financial & Verizon Communications, with Agilysys, AGNC Investment, Alexandria RE, BOK Financial, Brown & Brown, Cadence Bank, Cadence Design, Calix Networks, Cathay Bancorp, Cleveland-Cliffs, Crown Holdings, Equity Lifestyle Properties, HealthStream, Medpace, Nucor, NXP Semiconductors, RLI Corp, Simpson Manufacturing, W.R. Berkley & Zions Bancorp scheduled to report after the session’s close.

Existing Home Sales data is released Tuesday at 10 am.

Tuesday morning kicks off with A.O. Smith, Albertsons, Avery Dennison, Banc of California, Coca-Cola, Community Financial System, Constellium, Danaher, First Bancorp, Franklin Electric, Freeport-McMoRan, GATX, GE Aerospace, General Motors, Genuine Parts, HCA, Herc Holdings, Invesco, Kimberly-Clark, Lockheed Martin, Moody’s, MSCI, Northwest Bancshares, Old National Bancorp, PACCAR, Pentair, Philip Morris International, Polaris Industries, PulteGroup, Quest Diagnostics, Sherwin-Williams, Spotify, UPS & Webster Financial reporting earnings, followed by Alphabet, Artisan Partners Asset Management, Brandywine Realty, Cal-Maine Foods, Canadian National Railway, Capital One Financial, Chubb, CoStar Group, East West Bancorp, EastGroup, Enova International, Enphase Energy, EQT Corp., First Commonwealth, Matador Resources, Mattel, Nabors Industries, Packaging Corp of America, PennyMac, Range Resources, Red Rock Resorts, Renasant, Retail Opportunity Investments, Seagate Technology, Tesla, Texas Instruments, Trustmark, Veritex Holdings, Vicor & Visa, West Fraser Timber after the closing bell.

New Home Sales data comes out Wednesday morning at 10 am.

Alkermes, Allegion, Amphenol, AT&T, Boston Scientific, Check Point Software, Chemed, CME Group, Evercore, FirstService, Fiserv, Fortive, GE Vernova, General Dynamics, Group 1 Auto, Healthcare Services Group, Interpublic, International Paper, KBR, Lamb Weston, Lennox International, Navient, NextEra Energy, NextEra Energy Partners, Old Dominion Freight Line, Pacific Premier, Popular, PROG Holdings, Rogers Communications, Roper, Rush Enterprises, Silicon Labs, Taylor Morrison Home, TE Connectivity, Teledyne Technologies, Tenet Healthcare, Thermo Fisher Scientific, Tower Semiconductor, Travel + Leisure, United Community Banks, Vertiv, Wabash National & Weatherford International report earnings on Wednesday morning, with Chipotle Mexican Grill, Alamos Gold, Align Technology, Ameriprise Financial, Canadian Pacific Kansas City, Carlisle Cos, Celestica, Century Communities, Churchill Downs, Community Health, Core Labs, Edwards Lifesciences, Essential Properties Realty Trust, First American Financial, Flex, Ford Motor, Globe Life, Graco, Helmerich & Payne, IBM, ICON, Impinj, Invitation Homes, Kaiser Aluminum, KLA Corp, Knight-Swift Transportation, MaxLinear, Meritage Homes, Methanex, Moelis, Molina Healthcare, Newmont, Oceaneering International, O’Reilly Automotive, Pathward Financial, Pebblebrook Hotel Trust, Pegasystems, Plexus, QuantumScape, RenaissanceRe, Republic Services, Rollins, Sallie Mae, ServiceNow, South State, Teradyne, Tyler Technologies, United Rentals, Universal Health, Valmont Industries, Viking Therapeutics, Waste Connections, Waste Management & Wyndham Hotels & Resorts all scheduled to report after the session’s close.

Thursday the action picks up at 8:30 am when GDP, Initial Jobless Claims, Durable-Goods Orders, Durable-Goods minus Transportation, Advanced U.S. Trade Balance in Goods, Advanced Retail Inventories & Advanced Wholesale Inventories data are all scheduled for release.

AbbVie, Arch Resources, AstraZeneca, Bread Financial, Brunswick, CBRE Group, Comcast, Cullen/Frost, Darling Ingredients, Dover, Dow, DTE Energy, EMCOR Group, Expro Group, FTI Consulting, Harley-Davidson, Hasbro, HNI, Honeywell, IMAX, Integer Holdings, Keurig Dr Pepper, Lazard, Lear, LKQ, Masco, Mohawk, NASDAQ, Northrop Grumman, NovoCure, Pool, Precision Drilling, Reliance, RPM, RTX, Ryder System, Sanofi, Southside Banc, Southwest Air, STMicroelectronics, TechnipFMC, Teck Resources, Tractor Supply, Tradeweb Markets, TransUnion, TRI Pointe Homes, Union Pacific, Valero Energy, Valley National, Visteon & West Pharmaceutical Services all report earnings before Thursday’s opening bell, followed by Agnico-Eagle Mines, Allison Transmission, Ameris Bancorp, AppFolio, Arthur J. Gallagher, Baker Hughes, BJ Restaurants, Boston Beer, Boyd Gaming, Cincinnati Financial, Columbia Banking, Columbia Sportswear, Coursera, Cousins Properties, Customers Bancorp, Deckers Outdoor, Dexcom, Digital Realty Trust, Eastman Chemical, Edison, Exponent, Federated Hermes, First Financial Bancorp, First Interstate Bancsystem, Gaming and Leisure Properties, Hartford Financial, Healthpeak Properties, Juniper Networks, Kinsale Capital, L3Harris Technologies, LendingTree, LPL Financial, McGrath RentCorp, Minerals Technologies, NOV, Olin, Phillips Edison & Company, Principal Financial Group, Provident Financial Services, Selective Insurance, Skechers USA, SkyWest, SPS Commerce, SS&C Technologies, Terex, Texas Roadhouse, TFI International, Ultra Clean Holdings, Veralto, VeriSign, WesBanco, Weyerhaeuser, Willis Towers Watson & WSFS Financial after the closing bell.

Friday morning is also a busy one on the data-front, starting at 8:30 am when we get Personal Income (nominal), Personal Spending (nominal), PCE Index, PCE Year-over-Year, Core PCE Index & Core PCE Index Year-over-Year data, followed by Consumer Sentiment (final) data at 10 am.

3M reports earnings Friday morning, along with AllianceBernstein, Aon, Avantor, Balchem, Barnes Group, Booz Allen Hamilton, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Centene, Charter Communications, Colgate-Palmolive, First Hawaiian, Franklin Resources, Gentex, GrafTech International, Imperial Oil, Newell Brands, Portland General Electric, Saia, Sensient, Stellar Bank, T. Rowe Price, TriNet Group & WisdomTree.

See you back here next week!

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM OR DIA AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF added +0.96% last week, while the VIX closed the week at 12.46, indicating a one day implied move of +/-0.79% & a one month implied move of +/-3.6%.

Their RSI is still in overbought territory despite having deflated slightly last week & still sits at 73, while their MACD remains bullish but is losing steam & looking like it will cross over the signal line bearishly in the first half of the week.

Volumes were -41.54% below the prior year’s average volume (41,637,020 vs. 71,227,029), indicating that there are still a lot of market participants who are sitting on the sidelines still watching to see what happens in the near-term.

Monday began the week on an uncertain note, where a low volume session resulted in a spinning top, however the open-closing price range was concentrated in the top of the day’s candle, signaling there was some appetite to go higher.

The trend continued into Tuesday, when prices advanced slightly on the week’s lowest volume & the day’s candle resulted in a doji, indicating further uncertainty & temporary equilibrium in prices for SPY.

Things began to heat up on Wednesday though, as prices opened slightly higher, tested a bit lower before making the biggest one day gain of the week & setting up what looks to be a new consolidation range based on the rest of the week’s price action.

Thursday saw some of the week’s highest volume in a session that resulted in a bearish engulfing candle, where there was a slight bit of interest in prices going higher based on the day’s upper shadow, but ultimately bears took control of the session & pushed prices down to close below Wednesday’s open.

Friday was a mixed bag, where prices opened above Thursday’s close & marched much higher, only to be met with extreme selling pressure as folks took a risk-off into the weekend approach to close the session only +0.63%.

While the upper shadow of Friday’s candle shows that there were some bullish folks out there, there was not enough staying power to keep them from selling & taking profits before heading off for the weekend.

As noted above, it looks like Wednesday’s session will prove to have established a new range that SPY will fluctuate around in for the near-term unless earnings reports turn out to be incredibly bullish.

With the waning histogram levels on the MACD & the slope of the line in relation to the signal, it appears that it is ready to make a move at a bearish crossover by later on this week.

Given that a new all-time high was reached on Friday, another area to watch is Friday’s high price, which has now become the only resistance level for SPY’s chart.

There’s extremely limited historical data for this price point, making it difficult to anticipate how market participants will behave at it, which makes it even more imperative to have a keen eye on it going into a new week.

Prices have separated themselves from the 10 day moving average following Wednesday’s move, making them further from their nearest support level.

This is important as upon any test of it there may be increased selling pressure based on how SPY has behaved previously when their 10 & 50 DMAs were the first two levels of SPY’s support.

Volume will also be a key area to be watching, as after months of low volume in relation to the previous year’s average levels any uptick in buying or selling pressure can be viewed as a sentiment factor at these high price levels.

If SPY is to continue grinding higher it’s going to need a strong increase in sentiment, as otherwise one or two days of profit taking can lead to steeper declines.

SPY’s Average True Range has been climbing over the past week, which should continue on into this week as volatility is likely to increase in the near-term.

SPY has support at the $553.36 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $533.86 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $531.35 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $522.92/share (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels, with resistance at the $563.67/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF that tracks the NASDAQ 100 had the worst week of the major index ETFs, declining -0.27%.

Their RSI is trending back towards overbought conditions & is currently at 65, while their MACD is bullish, but primed to cross over the signal line bearishly on Monday or Tuesday.

Volumes were -27.19% below the previous year’s average (32,556,580 vs. 33,409,553), which should raise an eyebrow given that the highest volume session of the week by a long-shot was Thursday’s declining session.

QQQ’s week started on a similar note to SPY’s, a spinning top candle on Monday indicated that there was a bit of hesitancy & indecision on the part of market participants, which was further confirmed by the session having the lowest volume of the week.

Tuesday is when the cracks began to show & it became evident that folks were getting a bit nervous & antsy, as the session opened higher & tested slightly above the open, only to succumb to the bears & be pushed to close lower than the open.

Wednesday began the three day pattern formation of the “%” (while I’ve never seen it written that way formally in my studies, it does look exactly like one), as prices opened higher & continued climbing into the session, establishing a new all-time high & closing not far beneath it.

Thursday exposed the weakness in QQQ, when a bearish engulfing candle showed that there was beginning to be a bit of fear in the market, as prices opened above Wednesday’s session & were pushed below even the previous Friday’s daily price range lows on volume levels not seen since late May.

Prices were supported by the 10 day moving average on Thursday, which is going to be a key area to keep an eye on this coming week.

Friday resulted in a bullish session, but it came with bearish implications, as based on the size of Friday’s candle’s upper shadow either bulls were out in full force & wanted to take some profits going into the weekend, or the well of enthusiasm for QQQ has begun to go dry in the near-term.

It should be noted that the 10 DMA held up as a support level on Friday too, but it is tough to tell how long that can last for heading into a new week of earnings & economic data.

QQQ’s MACD is another area to be focused on this week, as it is currently primed to cross over bearishly in the coming day or two.

If this happens, expect a lot more volatility & more advancing of their Average True Range, as well as a run to test the 50 day moving average, which is currently QQQ’s second level of support.

While there is also support in the window that formed by the gap up in the second week of June, the 50 DMA may have moved into that price window by the time of a test, given that the window begins just above the $470/share price level from the top & $467/share from the bottom.

While Friday’s candle did form a bullish harami with Thursday’s, we may be looking at a situation similar to April 4-5th, where prices fluttered around in the range of the 4th’s wide-range bearish candle for about a week before falling into decline.

This would form a double top with QQQ’s all-time high reached on Tuesday & confirm the strength of its resistance.

QQQ has support at the $492 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $464.62 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $459.85 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $448.63/share (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels, with resistance at the $503.52/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF advanced +6.11% last week, as small cap names were the darlings of the week.

Their RSI crossed into overbought territory on Friday & is currently at 71.33, while their MACD is bullish, but does not appear to be on firm footing due to the rapid nature of its ascent.

Volumes were +4.28% above the previous year’s weekly average (34,840,240 vs. 33,409,553), due entirely to the strong bullish volume of the gap up sessions on Thursday & Friday.

Monday kicked the week off on a note of uncertainty, where low volumes & a long legged doji were the results of the day; prices tread water after having tested a good amount of price levels to the upside & downside & ultimately the support of the 50 day moving average was held in-tact.

Tuesday the bears got into IWM, with a session that opened lower than Monday, tested a bit higher but was rejected by the 50 DMA’s resistance & ultimately declined below the 10 DMA’s support before settling for the day in line with it.

There was a more optimistic air for IWM on Wednesday, when prices opened above Tuesday’s range & the 10 DMA, tested below the 10 DMAs support, before advancing beyond the resistance of the 50 DMA & managing to close above it as a support level.

Thursday opened with a gap up accounting for most of the week’s advances & was able to continue to climb higher on higher volumes than IWM has seen since February to close at over $210/share, breaking through the resistance zone that we’ve noted is at the $209/share price level.

The week wrapped up Friday with a similar, but less enthusiastic session that closed with a touch of warning.

Friday gapped up on the open & made a run at the $215/share level for IWM, but was unable to find footing & bears sent prices to close lower, with the day’s candle closing as a shooting star, which has near-term bearish implications.

IWM’s volume on Friday was high, which poses an interesting question: was the high volume due to folks who thought they missed the action on Thursday who went jumping into the water chasing IWM’s climb up, or was it more centered around people who’d profited already from earlier in the week selling & causing the long upper shadow of the shooting star candle?

The window created by Friday’s gap up will be an area of focus this week, as we wait to see if it serves as support or if it begins to fill.

Should it begin to fill the $211.29/share former 52-week high will be the first support level & how strong or weak it holds up will be key for determining the true strength behind the moves of the last two sessions.

December 12-13th of 2023 were the last time IWM’s RSI crossed into overbought territory, as it tends to stick more to oscillating around the neutral level in between the bounds of overbought & oversold.

When prices began to decline back from the RSI being in overbought territory there was a peak to trough decline of 8%+, which is something to be mindful of moving forward.

IWM has support at the $211.29 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.75:1), $209.29 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.75:1), $209.19 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.75:1) & $207.27/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.83:1) price levels, with resistance at the $214.94/share (52-Week High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF gained +1.68% this past week, closing the week with a fresh all-time high.

Their RSI just crossed into overbought territory on Friday & currently sits at 71.87, while their MACD is still bullish in the wake of the ascent that began in mid-June, which will be something to keep an eye on heading into the new week.

Volumes were the strongest for DIA last week of all the major indexes, coming in at +15.11% above average vs. the previous year (4,032,500 vs. 3,503,263), which provides some validation to the upwards price move, but is not entirely convincing just yet based on Friday’s price behavior.

DIA’s week started off on a rocky note, with Monday’s session having the lowest volumes of the week & resulting in a spinning top, indicating indecisiveness by market participants.

There was certainly a bullish appetite based on the long upper shadow, but the lower shadow also signaled that there were plenty of bears out there as well.

The 10 day moving average’s support did manage to hold up though & prices closed above it.

Tuesday was extremely similar to Monday, with less of a wise range between the open & closing prices on a declining session with slightly more volume.

Despite prices breaking temporarily below the 10 day moving average, they were able to recover & the session closed above it.

Wednesday provided a big leg up that was able to propel DIA into the close of the week, where the week’s second highest volume took an open at the 10 DMA & resulted in a +1% day-over-day gain.

The back end of the week is where trouble began brewing despite the advances.

Thursday was a showing of indecision as the session closed out as a doji just above the close of Wednesday on slightly less volume.

Friday looks at face value to have been a bullish sentiment day, but looking beneath the hood it isn’t entirely clear that that was truly the case.

DIA gapped up Friday morning on the open and based on its lower shadow briefly tested lower before powering to a new all-time high.

The troubling part comes down to the fact that the day’s candle closed as a shooting star with a slight lower shadow.

That lower shadow signals that there was still some bearish reluctance to continue higher in the direction of the opening gap during the session.

Another area of concern is the long upper shadow of the candle, as much like IWM’s Friday candle it can mean two things.

Either there was extreme optimism & most of that volume occurred due to the gap up & the bullish sentiment behind it, and or it occurred due to the long upper shadow, when market participants picked up some of their chips that they accumulated throughout the week & put them away before going into the weekend.

With this in mind, it will be wise to enter this week being prepared for some of the inflow volume of the latter end of the week to be sold as well.

DIA’s RSI is beginning to look like we may see a repeat of what occurred from mid-July 2023 to November of 2023, when overbought conditions persisted into August before declining through October.

Peak to trough that long-winded decline was -8.96% when all was said & done.

There are plenty of support levels for DIA that aren’t far off from their price as they have remained relatively bouncing around rangebound in 2024 following that steep November 2023 year end rally.

How this is impacted by any declines in the more fragile SPY or QQQ is yet to be seen, but will be something to keep an eye on should the time come.

DIA has support at the $399.83 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.6:0*), $397.13 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.6:0*), $395.59 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 3.5:1) & $394.40/share (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 3.5:1) price levels, with resistance at the $402.69/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

The Week Ahead

Monday starts the week off with Empire State Manufacturing Survey data at 8:30 am, followed by Fed Chairman Powell speaking at 12 pm.

BlackRock & Goldman Sachs report earnings before Monday’s opening bell.

U.S. Retail Sales, Retail Sales minus Autos, Import Price Index & Import Price Index minus Fuel data are all scheduled to be released at 8:30 am on Tuesday, followed by Business Inventories & Home Builder Confidence Index data at 10 am & Fed Governor Kugler speaking at 2:45 pm.

Tuesday morning begins with earnings reports from Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, PNC, Progressive, State Street & United Health Group, with Fulton Financial, Hancock Whitney, Interactive Brokers, J.B. Hunt Transport, Omnicom & Pinnacle Financial Partners scheduled to report after the closing bell.

Wednesday begins with Housing Starts & Building Permits data at 8:30 am, Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization data at 9:15 am & winds down with the Fed’s Beige Book at 2pm.

Johnson & Johnson, Ally Financial, ASML, Citizens Financial Group, Elevance Health, First Horizon, Northern Trust, Prologis, Synchrony Financial & U.S. Bancorp report earnings Wednesday morning, followed by Alcoa, Bank OZK, Cohen & Steers, Crown Castle, Discover Financial Services, Equifax, F.N.B. Corp., Home Bancshares, Kinder Morgan, Rexford Industrial Realty, SL Green Realty, Steel Dynamics, Synovus, United Airlines & Wintrust Financial reporting after the closing bell.

Initial Jobless Claims & Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey data are released at 8:30 am on Thursday, before U.S. Leading Economic Indicators data comes out at 10 am.

Abbott Laboratories, Berkshire Hills Bancorp, Cintas, Commerce Bancshares, D.R. Horton, Domino’s Pizza, Hexcel, Insteel Industries, KeyCorp, M&T Bank, Manpower, Marsh & McLennan Companies, OFG Bancorp, Snap-On, Texas Capital, Textron, Virtu Financial & WNS report earnings Thursday before the opening bell, followed by Netflix, AAR Corp, Glacier Bancorp, PPG Industries, Resources Connection & Western Alliance Bancorp after the closing bell.

Friday ends on a quieter note, with NY Fed President Williams speaking at 10:40 am & Atlanta Fed President Bostic speaking at 1 pm.

American Express, Autoliv, Badger Meter, Comerica, Fifth Third Bancorp, Halliburton, Huntington Bancshares, Regions Financial, SLB & Travelers Companies are all due to report earnings before Friday morning’s opening bell.

See you back here next week!

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM OR DIA AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***