Author: OptimizedValue

Is there anybody out there? Hello? A third straight week of bite-sized volumes came & went in a week with numerous Fed speakers & the most anticipated earnings report of the quarter where the S&P 500 & NASDAQ reached new all-time highs.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average joined the ranks of the Russell 2000 & decoupled from having similar recent success as the S&P & NASDAQ, primarily due to the fact that NVDA is not a component of the latter two indexes.

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF remained flat last week, registering a 0.00% change week-over-week (-$0.01) in a week where the VIX closed at 11.93, implying a one day move of +/-0.75% & a one month move of +/-2.18%.

Their RSI is rising & trending towards the overbought level, currently sitting at 63.89, while their MACD is bullish but looks like it will have a bearish crossover this week (although the four session week may impact this).

Volumes were -42.48% below average this week compared to the year prior (43,612,160 vs. 75,685,438), as the weak enthusiasm carried on for the third week in a row.

The week kicked off with a session that set the tone for a relatively range-bound performance, opening near Friday’s close, testing higher, before ultimately closing just above where it opened on the second lightest volume of the week.

Tuesday opened just below Monday’s close & wound up closing below the high of Monday’s session; however the session was the weakest volume session of the week, on a third consecutive week of very low volumes compared to the year prior.

Wednesday proved to be the pivot point of the week, forming a bearish harami with Tuesday’s candle & testing to the downside with its lower shadow on the second highest volume of the week.

This led to Thursday, where a wide-range bearish engulfing candle covered almost the entire range that SPY has traded at since 5/15 on the highest volume of the week, while also establishing a new all-time high.

The volume is even more significant as SPY was able to close below the support of their 10 day moving average, which has not happened since May 1, 2024 & is an indication that investor sentiment is waning.

The week wound down on a +0.67% session Friday, which opened at the 10 day moving average, tested lower, before closing up.

Volumes were still nothing to write home about on Friday & the spinning top candle indicates that there is still a great deal of uncertainty among market participants.

SPY’s Average True Range began to perk back up following the volatility of Wednesday & Thursday & should continue to do so into the coming week.

The strength of the 10 day moving average’s support is still going to be a main theme to keep an eye on this week, as it began showing weakness during the most active session by volume this week, indicating that investors were undeterred by it.

As noted in previous weeks, should the 10 DMA be broken there are limited local support touch-points for SPY, which means a breach of the 10 DMA would likely lead to a test of the 50 DMA which is ~3% below Friday’s closing price.

A breakdown of the 50 DMA would likely result in a broader leg downward & would then have downward pressure of the 10 & 50 DMA’s resistance impacting price.

Between Fed speakers, the Beige Book & some earnings reports that will highlight the strength of the lower income consumer there will be plenty of opportunities for a downside test of the 10 DMA to occur again during this shortened holiday week.

SPY has support at the $527.89 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $524.61 (Volume Sentiment: Even, 1:1), $515.71 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.5:1) & $501.75/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 3.5:1), with resistance at the $533.06/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price level.

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF that tracks the NASDAQ 100 was the only major index to advance this week, gaining +1.37%.

Their RSI is trending higher & sits just beneath the overbought level at 68.94, while their MACD is bullish, but is curling over for what looks to be a bearish crossover in the coming week (although the four day week may impact this).

Volumes were -39.9% below average compared to the previous year’s average (28,662,420 vs. 47,688,702), which casts doubt on the strength of their weekly advance, which was powered by NVIDIA’s earnings call & the associated strength in technology names.

QQQ’s week began on a muted note, with a low volume advancing session whose upper shadow indicated that there was a slight bit more room to move higher in the near-term.

Tuesday opened on a cautious note about mid-way through Monday’s total price range, but was able to close the day slightly higher day-over-day, but on lighter volume indicating that there was hesitancy.

Much like SPY, QQQ’s week’s performance was ultimately determined on Wednesday, when another very low volume session resulted in a dragonfly doji, indicating that there may be a reversal, or a continued march higher.

Thursday’s open in the wake of the NVDA earnings report was a large gap up for QQQ, but ultimately resulted in the indication of significant appetite for QQQ’s price to be lower, as the session closed near the low of Wednesday’s session & tested lower on the lower shadow.

Thursday also had the highest volume of the week, indicating that there is extreme discomfort in QQQ’s current price level & that many folks were eager to take profits off of the table quickly.

Also, Thursday set a new all-time high for QQQ, which confirms the profit taking angle & will make it important to keep an eye on this coming week.

Friday opened higher than Thursday’s close, tested lower but ultimately marched higher, forming a bullish harami pattern to close out the week, which will be an area to keep an eye on this week.

Like SPY, QQQ’s Average True Range began to perk up mid-week, which seems likely to continue into this coming week.

QQQ’s 10 day moving average & its relationship to its share price will be something traders are keeping a close eye on this week, as despite the weak volumes of last week, the 10 DMA maintained its strength & was not tested.

There are more local support levels for QQQ than SPY, as we’ve outlined before due to the less steep ascent that they took in the rally from October of 2023 to April of 2024, however due to the performance of many tech names eagerness to take profits may render that irrelevant in the face of a decline.

Along with SPY, the relationship between price, 10 & 50 day moving averages will also be something to keep an eye on in the event of decline, as the results will be similar for QQQ’s price.

QQQ has support at the $452.37 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $449.34 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $445.99 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.67:1) & $439.03/share (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.32:1), with resistance at the $460.58/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price level.

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF dipped -1.27% last week, as market participants were less enthusiastic about small cap names than other stocks.

Their RSI is just above the neutral level, sitting at 53.17, while their MACD is bearish following the declines of last week.

Volumes were -39.7% less than the year prior’s average (20,792,280 vs. 34,480,038), which is interesting, given that IWM decoupled from SPY & QQQ’s performance & went largely bearish for the week.

Monday started off on a bearish foot for IWM, with a shooting star candle that included a small lower shadow, indicating that there was further appetite to the downside.

Sure enough, Tuesday gapped down, tested slightly lower, but ultimately was able to gather enough steam to close above where it opened, but still for a declining session.

The low volume of Tuesday’s session was the lowest of the week for IWM, which somewhat mutes the fact that investors did push the price back to above where the session opened, which was confirmed by Wednesday’s decline.

Wednesday’s high wave session’s real body was slightly longer than a traditional spinning top, but nevertheless showed large movements both higher & lower based on the upper & lower shadows.

It also showed a complete breakdown of the 10 day moving average’s support for IWM, which when combined with Thursday’s session paints two interesting pictures.

Thursday the declines continued, opening at first above the close of Wednesday, before nosediving through both the 10 & 50 DMAs on the week’s highest volume.

Prices were able to cover to close above the 50 DMA, leading to a bullish harami with Friday’s +1.08% advancing session, but the volumes are clearly speaking more to the downside in terms of investor preference in IWM.

IWM’s Average True Range began to perk up again after declining all month due to the volatility of the past week & appears ready to continue climbing as the most likely scenarios for IWM in the near-term involve more volatility.

Based on the fact that the 50 DMA’s support ultimately held up, Friday’s candle forming a bullish harami may see a new consolidation range forming for IWM’s prices where they oscillate between the 10 & 50 day moving averages in the near-term while waiting for an upside or downside catalyst.

However, due to the high volumes that pushed the price below the 50 DMA’s support there could also be an uptick in volatility where the 50 DMA is broken through, leading to a leg to the downside.

In the event of the latter, there are a handful of support levels that are local to the 50 DMA & could lead to a continuation of the range that IWM has traded in since December 2024 in the near-term.

The angle which the 10 DMA is curled over at is an area of concern though, and indicates that there will be more declines in the coming week(s).

IWM has support at the $204.97 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.83:1), $204.25 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.83:1), $202.74 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.08:1) & $199.16/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.47:1), with resistance at the $206.92 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.83:1), $209.77 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.75:1), $209.88 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.75:1) & $211.88/share (52-Week High, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.75:1) price level.

DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF had the weakest week of the major four indexes, declining -2.33%, indicating the importance NVDA stock had on markets this week, as it is a component of SPY & QQQ, but not DIA or IWM.

Their RSI is right along the neutral level at 49.38 after flattening out over the past two sessions, while their MACD is bearish in the aftermath of last week’s declines.

Volumes were -33.42% below average last week compared to the year prior (2,358,500 vs. 3,542,530), as investors were even weary to jump into names of the large cap comprised index & used the broader market volatility to take profits from DIA & its components.

As noted above, last week began to show the divergence between indexes that hold NVDA & indexes that do not, as IWM & DIA drifted further apart from SPY & QQQ.

DIA’s week began on an interesting note, where a low volume session that opened around Friday’s closing level created a new all-time high, before profits were taken & the day resulted in a decline.

Tuesday offered a glimmer of hope, but was still marked with uncertainty when the lowest volume of the week came on DIA’s only daily advance, but the result of the session was one of uncertainty, marked by a spinning top candle.

The rest of the week confirmed this, as Wednesday’s session opened lower, tested above Tuesday’s close, before breaking to the downside, temporarily dipping below the 10 day moving average’s support, but managing to recover to close about in line with the 10 DMA on the second highest volume of the week.

That volume indicated that sentiment clearly lies with more profit taking, which led to Thursday’s wide range decline on the highest volumes of the week, as there was no gain for DIA from the NVDA earnings report on Wednesday night.

Prices settled for the session ~2% below the 10 day moving average’s resistance, hovering <1% above the 50 day moving average’s support.

Friday’s session set up a situation similar to the one just outlined for IWM in terms of where DIA’s price goes from here, as there was more profit taking on a declining session of -0.02%, setting up a sharp downwards angle from the 10 DMA, while prices sit between it & the 50 DMA.

A ~0.5% decline would have DIA sitting atop its 50 DMA, indicating that in the near-term we either will see a consolidation range established within the two moving averages & the body of Thursday’s wide-range candle, or the support of the 50 DMA breaks down & results in a broader move to the downside.

In the case of either instance, there is a chance of the gap from early May being filled in the coming weeks, but in the near-term there does not appear to be much in the way of catalysts to the upside, nor general enthusiasm at these price levels to continue the charge higher.

DIA, like IWM has many local support touch-points, which will also be something to look at & assess as prices fluctuate in the near-term.

DIA has support at the $388.39 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.08:1), $387.09 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.25:1), $385.02 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.25:1) & $383.23/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.67:1), with resistance at the $391.11 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.08:1), $396.11 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.6:0*), $398.02 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.6:0*) & $400.72/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price level.

The Week Ahead

Monday is the Memorial Day holiday in the U.S. so markets will be closed & there will be not economic data nor earnings reports released.

Cleveland Fed President Mester speaks in Japan at 12:55am on Tuesday, followed by the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index (20 cities) at 9 am, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari speaks at 9:55 am & Consumer Confidence data is released at 10 am.

Tuesday morning’s earnings reports include Bank of Montreal, Bank of Nova Scotia, Baozun & Hello Group, with Box, CAVA Group & HEICO scheduled to report after the closing bell.

Wednesday starts late on the data front, with New York Fed President Williams speaking at 1:45 pm, followed by the Fed Beige Book at 2 pm.

Abercrombie & Fitch, Advanced Auto Parts, American Eagle Outfitters, Chewy, Columbus McKinnon, Dick’s Sporting Goods & Royal Bank of Canada are all due to report earnings before Wednesday’s opening bell, with Salesforce, Agilent Technologies, C3.ai, Capri Holdings, Credo Technology Group, HP, nCino, Nutanix, Okta, Pure Storage, Stratasys & UiPath all scheduled to report after the closing bell.

Things pick up on Thursday beginning with Initial Jobless Claims, GDP (first revision), Advanced U.S. Trade Balance in Goods, Advanced Retail Inventories & Advanced Wholesale Inventories at 8:30 am, Pending Home Sales at 10 am & New York Fed President Williams speaking at 12:05pm.

Thursday morning’s earnings calls include Dollar General, Best Buy, Birkenstock Holding, Burlington Stores, Caleres, Cracker Barrel, Foot Locker, Hormel Foods, Kohl’s, SpartanNash & Veradigm, with Dell Technologies, Ambarella, Asana, Cooper Companies, Costco Wholesale, Elastic, Gap, Marvell Technology, MongoDB, NetApp, Nordstrom, SentinelOne, Ulta Beauty, Veeva Systems & Zscaler all due to report after the session’s close.

Friday begins with Personal Income, Personal Spending, PCE Index, PCE (Year-over-Year), Core PCE Index & Core PCE (Year-over-Year) at 8:30 am & the Chicago Business Barometer (PMI) at 9:45 am & Genesco will report earnings before the opening bell.

See you back here next week!

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACTS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM OR DIA AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF added +1.65% this past week, while the VIX closed at 11.99 to finish the week, implying a one-day move of +/-0.92% & a one-month move of +/-2.19%, in yet another week of lackluster volumes across the major four indexes.

Their RSI is nearing the overbought level & currently sits at 68.85 after a week of relative quiet (asides from Wednesday’s gap up session), while their MACD is still bullish, but showing signs of weakening in the near-term.

Volumes were -31.42% below average compared to the year prior (including last week’s “participation trophy week”, 52,530,754 vs. 76,595,337), indicating severe hesitancy on the part of market participants, as it appears the well of enthusiasm has dried up.

This low volume should be particularly alarming, given that most of the sessions of the past two weeks have closed in advances so there is not much conviction behind these moves up.

Monday kicked the week off on a similar note that last Friday wound down the previous week, resulting in a gap up open that tested lower to about mid-way through Friday’s lower shadow, before rallying back to close just above Friday’s close on what was one of the year’s bottom 3 lowest volume sessions.

Tuesday was able to find some stable footing & advance higher, but volumes again were nothing spectacular & folks weren’t just diving back into the fool in masses, as PPI data had just been announced & CPI data was on deck for Wednesday.

Wednesday opened with a gap up with enough enthusiasm to close higher for the day’s session & establish a new trading range for the end of the week, but volumes were still nothing to write home about (although they were the highest of the week for SPY).

Thursday is where the treading water began, which we will likely see continue into the coming week until the highly anticipated NVDA earnings call on Wednesday.

SPY ended Thursday on a bearish & uncertain note, as the session had declining volume that was similar to the advancing volumes of the past two days, on a shooting star candle.

This was to be expected walking into the open & is likely to continue into the coming week, barring there is some major news development in the time running up to the NVDA earnings report (bearish), or a head-fake up to get more people to pile back into the pool on one last pump.

Friday continued this theme, as the second highest volume session of the week ended in a +0.15% advance for the day, resulting in a dragonfly doji, which is a bullish reversal candle.

It also created a bullish harami pattern with Thursday’s candle, however, the session closed below its open & with the poor volume it is hard to read it as being particularly bullish.

SPY’s Average True Range is continuing lower, due to the gap up of Wednesday’s session & general lack of volatility, which we did anticipate would be rising in the near-term (and still do).

The late-July 2023 to November period is still something to be keeping a close eye on, as while the 10 Day Moving Average has recently pulled further ahead of the 50 DMA than it did during that time, this time around a new 52-week (and all-time) high was established.

Support levels for SPY are also in an interesting position as they currently sit, as using the data from the past 1-2 years, the immediate next two support levels do not have enough data yet to establish whether buyers or sellers have been the dominant force & they’re reportedly even (let’s assume buyers have the slight edge due to the nature of where they are currently trading).

The next two support levels are in the $510-514.99/share box, which is historically dominated by sellers at a rate of 2.31:1 & is only a 2.67% decline away from their current trading price from Friday’s close.

A decline of -4.56% would be in the cards if the sellers overtake the first two support levels & carry enough selling momentum from the historic behavior of the $510 range, which will be an area to keep a close eye on in the coming week, especially after the Fed speakers of the week & the NVDA earnings report.

SPY has support at the $524.61 (Volume Sentiment: Even, 1:1), $522.41 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Even, 1:1), $514.03 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2.31:1) & $510.75/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2.31:1) price levels with resistance at the $531.52/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price level.

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF that tracks the NASDAQ 100, advanced +2.19% last week, having the strongest weekly performance of the major four index ETFs.

Their RSI is near the overbought level, but has backed away from it in the wake of the past two sessions & sits at 65.89, while their MACD is bullish but showing signs of impending weakness in the coming week(s).

Volumes were weak, -29.72% below average vs. the prior year (33,892,137 vs. 48,227,138), indicating that there is still a lot of skepticism about their near-term potential among market participants.

Much like SPY, QQQ has now had back-to-back weeks of subpar volumes as investors sit on the edge of their seats awaiting to see if NVDA’s earnings call can give markets the strength to continue climbing.

Monday saw one of the lowest volume sessions of the year for QQQ on a day where despite gapping higher than the week prior on the open there was minimal strength & a test to the downside & ultimate close lower than the open.

Tuesday saw investors more eager to enter the market both in terms of volumes & the session’s bullish engulfing candle, leading to Wednesday’s gap up session on the highest volume of the week.

From there QQQ became range-bound near the closing price of Wednesday’s session for the rest of the week.

Thursday formed a bearish harami with Wednesday’s candle (bearish) as the real body of the shooting star candle was confined within the real body of Wednesday’s.

Friday confirmed this with more downside action, as the lower shadow of the day’s range tested down ~75% of Wednesday’s candle’s real body, indicating that pessimism has not left the building for QQQ & will likely continue into the new week.

QQQ’s Average True Range has been trending lower & recently crossed its mean as volatility has subsided since April, although it is likely to pick back up this coming week.

As noted in prior weeks, QQQ has more nearby support points than SPY due to the velocity with which SPY climbed over the past 7-8 months, but all eyes will continue to be on the 10 & 50 day moving averages.

If prices are to fall below them, there will be downward pressure from their resistance & given how close they are in the first place it would not take particularly long for them to begin flashing bearish signals.

Another thing to be mindful 0f in the coming few months is in the event of a decline, whether or not a head & shoulders pattern emerges with last week’s new all-time high as the head (or a new high reached this week).

It will also be important to be watching how volume trends change after two weeks with subpar volumes, as well as noting whether the buyers or sellers have been the dominating players at the support levels that QQQ is likely going to test in the coming week(s).

QQQ has support at the $449.34 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $445.99 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.67:1), $444.93 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.67:1) & $438.56/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.32:1) price levels with resistance at the $454.69/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price level.

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF climbed +1.85% last week, experiencing the same low volumes as SPY & QQQ.

Their RSI is near the oversold end of neutral, currently sitting at 61.54, while their MACD is bullish but has curled over bearishly & looks primed for a bearish crossover in the coming days.

Volumes were -15.46% below average compared to the year prior (29,329,278 vs. 34,692,386), as market participants were reluctant to buy into IWM for a second straight week.

The week kicked off on a unique & anything but certain note, as one of the lowest volume sessions of the year opened above last Friday’s close, tried to march up to Friday’s high, but ultimately retreated & closed lower.

This resulted in a bullish harami pattern, but given the low volume & the lower close than open it was to be taken with a grain of salt & not a sign of bullish enthusiasm.

Tuesday opened on a gap higher, but ended up closing in confusion & uncertainty as a spinning top candle, on a second straight day of lower closes than opens for IWM.

This lack of conviction among market participants continued throughout the week, as despite gapping higher on Wednesday, IWM closed the day with a hanging man candle, which is a bearish signal.

Thursday & Friday went on to work on closing the gap created by Wednesday’s session, with Thursday being a declining session & Friday resulting in a doji candle, signaling uncertainty going into the weekend.

Friday had the highest volumes of the week, which should also raise a skeptical brow about the strength in IWM currently, given that they closed at the exact price level that they opened on for the day, indicating that investors didn’t have any conviction one way or the other regarding their price.

IWM’s Average True Range has continued to decline in the month of May as volatility has subsided dramatically since April, but their other indicators look like we’ll see an uptick in their ATR in the week ahead.

It’ll be worth keeping an eye on IWM’s MACD this upcoming week & how its 10 day moving average moves in relation to it, as their MACD is showing signs of weakness & if the declines from it begin to pull the 10 DMA down that could set up a decent size swing to the downside.

Much like SPY & QQQ, that downwards move for the 10 DMA would also begin forcing downwards pressure on price if it drops beneath it & would also trigger the same downwards pressure from the 50 DMA in the event of declining below that as well.

IWM has support at the $206.05 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.83:1), $204.97 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.83:1), $204.25 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.83:1) & $202.54/share (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.08:1) price levels with resistance at the $209.77 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.75:1), $209.88 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.75:1) & $211.88/share (52-Week High, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.75:1) price level.

DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF climbed +1.21% last week, as the large cap index was the least favored among market participants.

Their RSI is in overbought territory following the advances of the month of May & currently sits at 71.54, while their MACD is bullish, but showing signs of a bearish roll-over on the near-term horizon.

Volumes were -19.6% lower last week compared to the year prior (2,857,738 vs. 3,554,391), in another week of lackluster trading activity.

Monday began DIA’s week with a bearish engulfing candle that almost engulfed the entirety of Friday’s doji’s range.

However, this large downside candle came on weak volumes, adding a layer of uncertainty into the mix & a lack of conviction behind market participants.

Tuesday resulted in an advancing session that created a bullish harami pattern with Monday’s & set the stage for the rest of the week’s advances.

Wednesday’s gap up came in the wake of Tuesday’s harami pattern & it also was the session with the week’s highest volumes, which isn’t a strong sign of conviction given how low volumes were for the week & the week prior.

Thursday brought another all-time high for DIA, but on a bearish note as the day’s session resulted in a shooting star candle, showing that investors did not want to budge over the $400.40/share mark for DIA.

Friday resulted in a relatively range-bound hanging man candle (bearish) on sub-par volumes indicating that there is a bit of bearish sentiment out there among market participants in regards to DIA.

Much like SPY, QQQ & IWM, DIA’s Average True Range has been declining throughout May as volatility has subsided, but it should begin to uptick again in the coming week(s).

DIA’s week will be interesting, as unlike SPY & QQQ NVDA is not a component of DIA.

Most of the same observations for SPY, QQQ & IWM are applicable to DIA in terms of their coming week’s performance & concerns, with the primary ones being the strength of their nearest support levels & how price behaves in relation to their 10 & 50 day moving averages.

Their recent volumes have painted a troublesome picture & it looks as though folks are very hesitant to dive into the pool & are more interested in seeing if it is almost time to jump out to take a break.

DIA has support at the $398.02 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.6:0*), $394.01 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 3.5:1), $391.11 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.08:1) & $387.69/share (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.25:1) price levels with resistance at the $400.40/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price level.

The Week Ahead

Monday the week kicks off on a sleepy note, with no economic data scheduled to be released.

global-E Online, Li Auto & Wix.com are all scheduled to report earnings Monday morning before the opening bell, with Keysight Technologies, Nordson, Palo Alto Networks & Zoom Video Communications reporting after the closing bell.

Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic & Boston Fed President Susan Collins speak together on a panel on Tuesday night at 7pm.

Tuesday opens up with AutoZone, Eagle Materials, James Hardie, Lowe’s & Macy’s all reporting earnings before the opening bell, with Toll Brothers, Modine Manufacturing, Skyline Champion, Urban Outfitters & Viasat all reporting earnings after the session’s close.

Wednesday brings us Existing Home Sales data at 10 am, followed by Minutes of the May FOMC Meeting at 2pm.

Target, Analog Devices, Brady, Dorian LPG, Dycom, GDS Holdings, Kingsoft Cloud, Petco Health & Wellness, Phontronics, TJX, Vipshop Holdings & Williams-Sonoma all report earnings Wednesday morning before the market opens, with the day’s headliner NVIDIA reporting after the closing bell, along with Enersys, LiveRamp, Snowflake, Sociedad Quimica y Minera, Synopsys, VF Corp & Zuora as well.

Initial Jobless Claims will be reported at 8:30 am on Thursday, followed by S&P Flash U.S. Services PMI & S&P Flash U.S. Manufacturing PMI data at 9:45 am, New Home Sales data at 10 am & Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic speaking at 3pm.

Thursday kicks off with BJ’s Wholesale, Endava, Hamilton Lane, KE Holdings, Medtronic, Minro Muffler, NetEase, Ralph Lauren, Shoe Carnival, Titan Machinery, Triumph Group & Weibo reporting earnings before the market opens, followed by Intuit, Lions Gate Entertainment, Ross Stores, StepStone Group & Workday after the closing bell.

Friday winds the week down with Durable-Goods Orders & Durable Goods minus Transportation data at 8:30 am, followed by Consumer Sentiment (final) data at 10 am.

The week ends on the earnings front in the morning when Booz Allen Hamilton, Hudbay Minerals & TransAlta are all scheduled to report earnings before the market’s opening bell.

See you back here next week!

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM OR DIA AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF gained +1.87% last week, while the VIX closed the week out at 12.55, implying a one day move of +/-0.79% & a one month move of +/-2.29% as volatility subsided week-over-week & volumes were well below average for the major four indexes.

Their RSI is trending towards overbought levels & currently sits at 62.38, while their MACD is bullish, but beginning to show signs of weakness & will be something to keep an eye on heading into next week.

Volumes were -38.16% below average last week compared to the year prior (47,531,860 vs. 76,858,996), indicating severe hesitancy on the part of investors, as all five sessions of the week were advancing.

Monday’s session kicked off the week on an advancing note, but it should be noted that there was some movement to the downside during the session as seen in the lower shadow of the daily candle.

However, due to the way it recovered & rallied higher it set up the rest of the week to continue climbing, even if only on fluffy light volume.

Tuesday showed signs of blood in the water & the truly uncertain & cautious environment for SPY, as the session gapped higher but was only able to close in a doji candle where the real body was contained in the lower 50% of the daily candle & was filled in, as the close was lower than the open (not a gravestone doji though), that formed a bearish dark cloud cover pattern with Monday’s candle.

Tuesday also accounted for the highest volume of the week, which should signal alarms for market participants given how narrow the day’s trading range was in relation to the rest of the week & should be something to be keeping an eye on heading into the new week.

Wednesday reflected that as SPY opened on a gap down but was able to push higher & avoid forming an evening star pattern (bearish).

This should also be an area of concern as it occurred on the lightest volumes of the week, indicating that there was not particularly strong sentiment behind the move.

Thursday was another very low volume session that advanced over a wider range than Wednesday, which is another checkmark in the “not strength” column.

The week closed out on an ominous note, with Friday’s session resulting in a spinning top candle, indicating indecision among market participants.

Friday was the second highest volume of the week, which in this instance has bearish implications, given that the session opened on a gap higher, tested above the open, but ultimately went lower.

In addition to testing lower, the day also closed below its open which is not indicative of strength & strong belief of market participants.

Their Average True Range is reverting back towards the mid-range as there has been a lack of volatility in the past couple of weeks in the wake of a volatile month of April.

Much like last week, a key area for the week ahead will be how the 10 & 50 day moving averages move in relation to prices for SPY.

They’re currently set up for a bullish crossover during Monday’s session (one year chart), but there doesn’t appear to be much strength & belief in SPY’s prices at these levels.

This makes it worth taking a look on the chart above to back in September of 2023, when SPY had just recovered from a -5.75% tumble, but was unable to reach back to the previous high of two months prior.

Additionally, note the way that the 10 & 50 day moving averages were behaving then.

Peak to trough in the March-April 2024 decline was -5.86% & while the more recent run up to the 52-week (also all-time) high has come closer to reaching the peak than the July-August/September 2023 attempt, volumes have been lower during the climb.

The groundhog saw his shadow then & may well be looking at it again this week, when there are earnings due from Home Depot & Walmart that will shed insight into the state of consumers, in additional to inflation data readings from the PPI (Tuesday) & CPI (Wednesday).

Any weak signals in those reports & data announcements will create a spike in volatility (Average True Range, as noted last week) & likely set up a long couple of months ahead of us for SPY.

This leads us to looking at support levels & the volume sentiment at each over the past 1-2 years, which as shown below do have some strong historic selling sentiment within the next -3-4% lower, where all of SPY’s nearby support levels reside.

It will be another key area to watch heading into next week.

SPY has support at the $512.36 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2.31:1), $512.06 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2.31:1), $510.75 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2.31:1) & $501.94/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 3.5:1) price levels, with resistance at the $524.61/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: Even, 1:1) price levels.

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF that tracks the NASDAQ 100, climbed +1.51% last week, also joining SPY with “participation trophy” volumes that were not indicating strong sentiment among market participants.

Their RSI is currently at 58.85 & their MACD is bullish, but beginning to show signs of potentially curling over bearishly in the near-term.

Volumes were a meager -43.08% below average compared to the year prior’s average (27,553,400 vs. 48,404,862), making QQQ the weakest volume of the week among the major four indexes.

Monday showed that the strength of the 50 day moving average’s support was still alive & well, opening just above it, testing lower but ultimately rallying back to close on an advance.

Tuesday looked suspiciously like SPY’s day, with the highest volume of the (weak) week resulting in a doji that closed below the open & in the lower half of the day’s total range.

Things got interesting on Wednesday, where the second lightest volume of the week resulted in a gap down that ultimately was able to work its way up & close higher, albeit on extraordinarily weak volume.

Another particularly interesting point with Wednesday’s candle is that if it was a filled in red real body it would be considered an evening star pattern, which is bearish.

This too is eerily similar to SPY’s situation last week (except SPY advanced that day, while QQQ declined) & while the minor pump into the end of the week was facilitated by Wednesday’s outcome, it still has a bearish sentiment written all over it.

Thursday opened higher, tested well lower into the mid-section of Wednesday’s candle’s real body & resulted in a hanging man candle as it was able to close higher than it opened; it should be noted that this all occurred on the weakest volume of the week.

The volume story for QQQ is similar to SPY, participation trophy levels that don’t add conviction to the moves higher that each index ETF made.

Friday closed the week out doubling down on the notes of uncertainty that we’d seen all week.

Muted volume on a long-legged doji candle that closed below the opening price isn’t a recipe that the bulls tend to want any part of.

Their Average True Range is downtrending back towards the median of its range due to the lack of volatility over the past two weeks, much like SPY’s.

Much like SPY’s timeframe comparison above, it is worth revisiting how QQQ behaved in the July-October 2023 time period.

One notable difference is that QQQ has more support levels nearby than SPY which may prove beneficial for them, particularly as there should be an anticipated pump running up to the NVDA earnings report on May 22, regardless of what this week’s data tells us.

There is also a similar amount of local selling sentiment for QQQ as was the case with SPY, although their past few months’ more rangebound activity than SPY’s does provide a little extra support from buyer-centric volume.

It should be noted though that at extreme price levels like this that data will be skewed towards the buyers, which may make the buyer strength mislead due to a lack of downwards tests for the high price levels.

QQQ has support at the $438.56 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.32:1), $436.63 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.32:1), $434.50 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2.36:1) & $433.08/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2.36:1) price levels, with resistance at the $445.99 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.67:1) & $449.34/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF was the least favorite of the major four indexes last week, adding +1.19% for the week.

Their RSI is at 56.8, while their MACD is still bullish but beginning to show signs of weakening in the near-term.

Volumes were -38.76% below average last week compared to the year prior (21,202,560 vs. 34,624,259), as much like SPY & QQQ market participants were not enthusiastic about the leg upward at all.

Monday opened the week up with a move higher on the week’s highest volume, setting the stage for the rest of the week to climb higher.

Tuesday’s gravestone doji candle established that there would not be much more room to run higher for IWM though throughout the rest of the week, which Wednesday confirmed.

Wednesday gapped lower on the open, nearing the 50 day moving average, but the 50 DMA provided adequate support & prices pushed higher to close above their open, but like SPY & QQQ on the weakest volume of the week.

Thursday showed a glimmer of hope for bulls, as there was a move higher for IWM on the week’s second highest volume, however a risk off move into the weekend was in store for Friday.

Friday also showed there was more downside appetite for IWM, as their lower shadow pushed below Thursday’s opening price & midway down Thursday’s lower shadow, indicating that there was more bearish sentiment than bullish for the day.

Their Average True Range is just below the middle of its current range, but is beginning to turn upwards following Friday’s bearish -0.75% declining session & should continue to rise if the volatility persists.

IWM is also resembling the same July-October 2023 period mentioned for SPY & QQQ, but its 10 DMA has come much closer to the 50 DMA recently compared to then, which will be an area to keep a watch on this week.

With that said, IWM will have a bullish 10 & 50 day moving average crossover in the next 1-2 days, pending no large gap downs to open the week, but how long it will be able to rally & stay above the 50 DMA is yet to be seen.

IWM has a good amount of support levels in near-by range which will help them in the event of bad news next week, and unlike SPY & QQQ their next four support levels are all dominated by the buyers over the past 1-2 years.

It is also worth noting that there is a bit of a head & shoulders pattern forming bearishly on IWM’s one year chart, which as you can see prices today are right between the $204.97 level in December of 2023 & the $204.25 level of February 2023.

This looks primed for a bearish surprise in the coming week, unless the buyer strength outlined below at the local support levels is able to hold up & keep IWM propped up.

IWM has support at the $204.25 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.83:1), $202.30 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.08:1), $201.74 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.08:1) & $199.16/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.47:1) price levels, with resistance at the $204.97 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers 1.83:1), $209.88 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.75:1) & $211.88/share (52-Week High, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.75:1) price levels.

DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF advanced +2.17%, as investors favored the larger cap index over the other three major indexes.

Their RSI is nearing overbought levels & is currently at 66.09, while their MACD is bullish mostly due to the gap up session of last Friday & the advances that followed.

Volumes were -12.55% below average compared to the year prior (3,105,100 vs. 3,550,743), which while is still weak, is nowhere near as subdued as the levels seen in SPY, QQQ or IWM.

Monday followed in Friday’s footsteps & resulted in a dragonfly doji, although on ~42% of the volume of Friday’s session, which isn’t a signal of strength, but the 50 DMA was able to prove sturdy as support.

Tuesday saw the week’s lowest volume & a session that opened on a gap up, tested higher, before ultimately closing below the opening price; again, not signaling much strength & a clear indication of hesitancy among market participants.

Wednesday was able to muster some folks off of the sidelines for DIA & resulted in a bullish engulfing candle that set the stage for the rest of DIA’s week.

Thursday was the highest volume of the week on a the widest range candle that had almost no shadows, which leads us to the fun part.

Friday’s session had the second highest volume of the week & resulted in a dragonfly doji, which based on the outcome of Monday’s session could translate into a an evening star pattern (both are bearish).

Friday’s range overall was relatively concentrated compared to the rest of the week, which leads market participants to another questions, “Were the last two trading sessions of the week just attempts to get people to jump into the pool to lead to a rug pull next week with more profit?”.

DIA is within ~1% of its all-time high, which if you look closer at from March of 2024 was led up to in the two days prior by two candles exactly like Thursday & Friday’s (although opposite volume configurations).

All eyes will be on Monday’s performance for DIA for more insight into what comes next for it, conveniently leading into Tuesday’s PPI report.

DIA’s Average True Range has been retreating from the high end towards the median of its range due to the decline of volatility over the past 6 sessions, which has in turn shot their RSI up dramatically.

Much like IWM, DIA is not exactly in line with how similar SPY & QQQ were for he July-October 2023 in terms of moving average & performance, which could change if there were a gap down to lead the week off in the first day or two.

Much like every other index outlined above, the story will really come down to the strength of support from the 10 & 50 day moving averages, as well as the volumes for the coming week.

For DIA, there is a chance that even should we receive bad news that they remain more resilient than the other three indexes above due to their components, but as NVDA is not a component they will likely not receive the same gains as SPY or QQQ in anticipation of the NVDA earnings call on 5/22.

There also is the issue of sellers dominating the next four support levels of DIA, and given that two of those are moving averages should DIA find itself decline there will be downward pressure on prices moving into the coming month(s).

There also looks to be a bearish head & shoulders pattern emerging in DIA, which will be an area of concern in the coming week(s).

In the near-term there are plenty of support levels nearby the price, but in the next month-month & a half the $369.46 level will be something to keep on your radar should DIA begin to decline, as aside from the 200 DMA, there is limited support for ~-5% from that support level (also the 200 DMA will continue moving higher day-over-day).

DIA has support at the $395.18 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.25:1), $387.66 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.25:1), $387.23 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.25:1) & $386.67/share (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.25:1) price levels, with resistance at the $398.61/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

The Week Ahead

Monday does not have any major economic data to be announced.

Amer Sports, Huya, Paysafe, Tencent Music & Veradigm report earnings before Monday’s opening bell, while Agilysis, Allogene Therapeutics, American Healthcare REIT, Kyverna Therapuetics & StoneCo all are scheduled to report after the session’s close.

NFIB Optimism Index data is released Tuesday at 6am, followed by Producer Price Index, PPI Year-over-Year, Core PPI & Core PPI Year-over-Year data at 8:30am.

Tuesday morning kicks off with earnings from Home Depot, Alibaba Group Holding, IHS Holding, International Game Technology, Jack In The Box, On Holding, Rush Enterprises, Sea Limited, SFL Corp. & Smith Douglas Homes, followed by Boot Barn Holdings, Capital Southwest Corp., DHT, dLocal, Lions Gate Entertainment, Nextracker, Prestige Consumer & Sun Life after the closing bell.

Wednesday is set to be busy, with Consumer Price Index, CPI Year-over-Year, Core CPI, Core CPI Year-over-Year, U.S. Retail Sales, Retail Sales minus Autos & the Empire State Manufacturing Survey data all announced at 8:30 am, followed by Home Builder Confidence Index & Business Inventories data at 10 am.

Arcos Dorados, Dole, Dynatrace, Monday.com & Riskified are all due to report earnings Wednesday morning, with Cisco Systems, Copa Holdings, Grab, Maxeon Solar & ZTO Express all scheduled to report after the session closes.

Initial Jobless Claims, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey, Housing Starts, Building Permits, Import Price Index & Import Price Index minus Fuel data are all scheduled for release at 8:30 am on Thursday, with Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization data coming out at 9:15 am.

Thursday morning features earnings reports from Walmart, Advanced Drainage Systems, Canada Goose, Deere, Lightspeed, NICE & Under Armour, followed by Applied Materials, Copart, Doximity, DXC Technologies, Flower Foods & Take-Two Interactive Software after the closing bell.

Friday the week winds down with U.S. Leading Economic Indicators announced at 10 am.

RBC Bearings wraps up the week in terms of earnings calls for the week on Friday morning before the opening bell.

See you back here next week!

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM OR DIA AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF gained +0.6% last week, with the VIX closing at 13.49 on Friday, implying a one day move of +/-0.85% & a one month move of +/-2.46%.

Their RSI is currently 53.9 after crossing back over the neutral spot of 50 during Friday’s session, while their MACD is bullish, but not indicating much strength & conviction in terms of an actual trend.

Volumes were -12.36% below average compared to the year prior (67,844,385 vs. 77,415,622), with the two declining sessions of the week having the highest levels, which is not a major vote of confidence from market participants.

The week kicked off on Monday with a theme of uncertainty, as a low volume session resulted in a dragonfly doji that opened & closed just below the 50 day moving average.

Tuesday was a risk-off session on the second highest volume of the week, where prices dipped down & broke through the support of the 10 day moving average.

Wednesday gave interesting signals, with prices opening lower than Tuesday, finding some footing & moving above the 10 DMA’s resistance, but ultimately resulting in bearish decline as bears rushed in & forced prices to close lower than the day’s open in an inverted hammer candle.

The session was also the highest volume of the week, signaling that there was a bit of conflicting sentiment for SPY, as there was a temporary intraday push higher that had limited sticking power & the spinning top candle body denotes uncertainty on the part of market participants.

Thursday saw a slight increase, opening in line with the 10 day moving average, testing beneath it to about the low of Wednesday before advancing & closing above the support of the 10 DMA.

Closing as a spinning top, there is still a strong scent of uncertainty on Thursday, especially as the session covered a wide trading range on the second lowest volume of the week.

Friday rounded the week out on an even less clear note, as the session opened on gap up & resulted in a long-legged doji that closed just above the support of the 50 day moving average.

SPY’s Average True Range is on the high end currently after a couple of weeks of volatile trading & will likely remain elevated in the coming week(s).

A key area to keep an eye on this week will be the strength of the 50 day moving average, which is currently functioning as support.

If this holds up there will be additional upwards pressure on prices as the 10 day moving average crosses through it, else as they’ve gotten closer together if the price declines beneath them both there will be downwards pressure providing added volatility to SPY in the near-term.

It will also be worth keeping an eye on the window created by Friday’s gap up session to see if it gets filled or not in the coming days.

Support levels are still sparse for SPY at these price levels, with the volume sentiment for the nearest four below.

SPY has support at the $510.75 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2.31:1), $505.12 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.29:1), $501.94 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 3.5:1) & $499.55/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.25:1) price levels, with resistance at the $511.29 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2.31:1) & $524.61/share (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF added +1.04% last week, mostly due to Friday’s +2.01% gap up session.

Their RSI is 53.87, also having crossed over the neutral level following Friday’s gap up session, while their MACD is bullish, but not indicating a major change in trend & will be an area to keep an eye on in the coming week.

Volumes were -13.68% below average last week compared to the year prior (42,101,522 vs. 48,771,561), matching SPY’s in terms of day-over-day performance from last week.

QQQ’s week resembled SPY’s in more ways than just the volume, even their daily candles last week are all highly similar, both with regards to their proximity to the support at the 10 day moving average & their size & shapes as well.

One key area of difference was Friday though for QQQ, where the second highest volume of the week occurred on the gap up session that pushed QQQ into positive territory to end the week.

QQQ ended Friday’s session on a weak, uncertain note given that the day’s candle was a spinning top & that it was unable to close above the resistance of the 50 day moving average (although it did temporarily break above it).

That relationship will be a key area of focus heading into this week, much like what was outlined above for SPY.

It should be noted though that due to the lesser velocity that QQQ has risen with over the past 6 months that there are more local support levels for QQQ to catch itself on in the event of decline.

With that said, it should also be noted that they serve as resistance levels on the way up as well & their volume sentiments outlined below should be kept in mind while looking at their chart this week.

Also, like SPY, QQQ’s Average True Range is also on the higher end currently after April’s volatility & will likely continue to be at heightened levels in the near-term.

QQQ has support at the $433.08 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2.36:1), $429.28 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.5:1), $426.71 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2.08:1) & $421.07/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 9.5:1) price levels, with resistance at the $436.20 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.32:1), $438.56 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.32:1), $445.99 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.67:1) & $449.34/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF advanced +1.78% last week, as small cap names were the favorite among market participants in terms of the major indexes.

Their RSI is 54.87 after crossing the neutral level mid-week, while their MACD is bullish.

While IWM’s MACD currently looks more bullish than SPY or QQQ’s, it is still an area to keep a close eye on in the coming week to see how it holds up.

Volumes were -15.16% below average vs. the year prior (29,517,412 vs. 34,792,056), which is noteworthy as all but one session of the week resulted in advances, indicating that while IWM advanced for the week, there was not strong sentiment behind its performance.

Monday kicked the week off with an advancing spinning top candle, a signal of uncertainty that ultimately would reign the overall sentiment until Friday.

Tuesday was a declining session that covered a wide range of price action, but was ultimately supported by the 10 day moving average & closed right along it.

Wednesday was an interesting session, as the week’s highest volume came on a wide-range day that opened below the 10 DMA, tested above it & back towards the highs of Monday’s session before ultimately declining & closing just below the 10 DMA.

Thursday is when things shifted gears, as prices jumped up on the open, tested lower, temporarily breaking down below the 10 DMA’s support, only to roar back up & close the day above $200/share.

Friday the week closed on an ominous note, as the session opened on a gap up & made a run towards the $205/share level, but ultimately was stopped short & went lower, settling for the day just beneath the 50 day moving average.

IWM’s Average True Range is not as elevated as those of SPY or QQQ, but it will likely continue rising in the coming week(s) as it appears that there will be an uptick in volatility.

Due to the nature of how IWM trades more in ranges than the steep climbing SPY or QQQ there are more local support levels to rely on in the near-term.

IWM has support at the $199.16 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.47:1), $198.90 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.47:1), $198.04 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.47:1) & $196.60/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.38:1) price levels, with resistance at the $202 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.08:1), $204.25 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.83:1), $204.97 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.83:1) & $209.88/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.75:1) price levels.

DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF climbed +1.17% last week, having the second best week of the major indexes behind the Russell 2000.

Their RSI is 54.92, while their MACD is bullish.

Volumes were +15.45% above average compared to the year prior (4,093,225 vs. 3,545,474), which is interesting given how the top three days of the week by volume were all advancing sessions.

Much like the other major indexes, DIA opened the week up with a spinning top candle on low volume, spelling uncertainty by market participants.

Tuesday opened lower & closed beneath the support of the 10 day moving average, before a high wave candle created a bullish Harami pattern with it on Wednesday & the bulls began to take over.

Wednesday’s session should also be noted for having the week’s strongest volume.

Thursday the 10 DMA was overcome as prices settled for the day just above it, and Friday closed the week out on an uncertain note with a doji candle that closed just below the 50 day moving average.

Much like the other index ETFs mentioned above, DIA’s relationship with the 50 DMA will be a closely watched area this week in the markets, as it was still providing resistance heading into the weekend.

DIA’s Average True Range is near the high end of its range due to the recent volatility of the past month & it will likely remain elevated going into the coming week(s).

In the event of increasing volatility, it will become important to have an understanding of the volume sentiments of the price levels where support lies, which is outlined below.

DIA has support at the $385.59 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.25:1), $383.80 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.67:1), $382.49 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.67:1) & $378.75/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.25:1) price levels, with resistance at the $387.01 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.25:1), $387.66 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.25:1) $391.70 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.08:1) & $398.61/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.6:0*) price levels.

The Week Ahead

Monday the week kicks off with Richmond Fed President Barkin speaking at 12:50 pm, followed by New York Fed President Williams speaking at 6 pm.

Affiliated Managers, BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, BioNTech, Freshpet, Jones Lang LaSalle, Napco Security Technologies, Northwest Natural, Perficient, Spirit Airlines, Sunstone Hotel, TreeHouse Foods & Tyson Foods all report earnings before Monday’s opening bell, with ADTRAN, Air Lease, Axon, BellRing Brands, Beyond, Cabot, Coherent, Coty, Fabrinet, Fidelity National Information Services, FMC Corp, Golub Capital, Goodyear Tire, Hims & Hers Health, International Flavors & Fragrances, J&J Snack Foods, Lucid Group, Lumentum, Marriott Vacations, Matterport, Microchip Technology, National Health Investors, Noble, ONE Gas, Otter Tail Power, Palantir Technologies, Playa Hotels & Resorts, Primerica, ProAssurance, Realty Income, Regal Rexnord, Rocket Lab USA, Safehold, ShockWave Medical, Simon Property Group, Talos Energy, Teradata, TrueBlue, Varonis Systems, Vertex Pharmaceuticals, Vimeo, Vornado Realty Trust & Williams Companies all reporting earnings after the closing bell.

Consumer credit data is released at 3pm on Tuesday.

Tuesday morning reports include Walt Disney, AdaptHealth, Apellis Pharmaceuticals, Aramark, Avient, Bloomin’ Brands, Builders FirstSource, Celsius Holdings, Crocs, Datadog, Delek US Holdings, Duke Energy, Energizer, Enpro Inc., Expeditors International of Washington, First Watch Restaurant Group, GlobalFoundries, Gogo, Healthcare Realty, Henry Schein, Hillman Solutions, Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Jacobs Engineering, Kenvue, NJ Resources, NRG Energy, Oscar Health, Perrigo, Portillo’s, Rockwell Automation, ScanSource, Sempra Energy, Spirit Aerosystems, Squarespace, Tempur Sealy International, TopBuild, Transdigm Group, UBS, Waters, WideOpenWest & WK Kellogg, followed by Reddit, American States Water, Andersons, Angi, Arcadium Lithium, Arista Networks, Assurant, Assured Guaranty, Astera Labs, Astrana Health, Bio-Rad Labs, BlackLine, Brighthouse Financial, Cadre Holdings, California Resources Corp, Chord Energy, Cirrus Logic, Confluent, Corsair Gaming, Coupang, Douglas Emmett, Dutch Bros, Electronic Arts, Flywire, Globus Medical, GoPro, Grocery Outlet, GXO Logistics, Halozyme Therapeutics, IAC, iRobot, Jack Henry, Kratos Defense and Security, Kyndryl, LegalZoom.com, Luminar Technologies, Lyft, Magnolia Oil & Gas, Manitowoc, Match Group, McKesson, MeridianLink, Myriad Genetics, Occidental Petroleum, Open Lending, Pacira BioSciences, Permian Resources, PROS Holdings, PubMatic, Qualys, Redfin, Revolve Group, RingCentral, Rivian Automotive, Shoals Technologies, Sonos, STAAR Surgical, Sturm Ruger, Toast, TripAdvisor, Twilio, Upstart, Veeco Instruments, Virgin Galactic, Wynn Resorts & ZoomInfo after the closing bell.

Wholesale Inventories data is scheduled for Wednesday at 10 am, followed by Fed. Governor Cook speaking at 1:30 pm.

Wednesday morning begins with earnings calls by ACM Research, Affirm, Anheuser-Busch InBev, Ardmore Shipping, Autohome, Brinks, Broadridge Financial, Choice Hotels, Clarivate, Dine Brands, Editas Medicine, Emerson, Everi, Fox Corp, Griffon, Hain Celestial, HF Sinclair, Holley, Ingredion, International Money Express, International Seaways, Kennametal, Kornit Digital, LCI Industries, MasterCraft, New Fortress Energy, New York Times, NiSource, ODP Corp, Payoneer Global, Performance Food Group, Starwood Property Trust, Sunoco, Taboola.com, Teva Pharmaceutical, TPG, Uber Technologies, United Parks & Resorts, Valvoline, Vericel, Vertex, Vishay & Wolverine World Wide, followed by Arm Holdings, ACADIA Pharmaceuticals, Airbnb, AMC Entertainment, Amdocs, AppLovin, Atmos Energy, AZEK, B&G Foods, Beyond Meat, Black Hills Corp, Bumble, Celanese, Cheesecake Factory, Chesapeake Utilities, CleanSpark, Compass Minerals, CoreCivic, Crane NXT, Cytokinetics, Duolingo, Encore Capital, Energy Transfer, Exact Sciences, Fidelity National, Fluence, Forward Air, Genco Shipping & Trading, Hecla Mining, Helios Technologies, HighPeak Energy, Horace Mann, HubSpot, Innovative Industrial Properties, Instacart, Jackson Financial, James River Group, Kinetik, Klaviyo, Kodiak Gas Services, Mannkind, News Corp., Nu Skin, OraSure, Paycor HCM, Primoris Services, QuinStreet, Robinhood Markets, Royal Gold, Sinclair Broadcast, SiTime, SolarEdge Technologies, Sun Life, Sunrun, Supernus Pharmaceuticals, The Trade Desk, TKO Group Holdings, Topgolf Callaway Brands, Traeger, TTEC Holdings, Vista Outdoor, Vital Energy, Watts Water Technologies, Western Midstream & Ziff Davis after the closing bell.

Thursday begins with Initial Jobless Claims data at 8:30 am.

Allegro Microsystems, Allete, Amicus Therapeutics, Berry Global, BigCommerce, Brookfield, Canadian Solar, Cars.com, Cerence, Ceva, Charles River, Clearway Energy, Cogent Communications, Constellation Energy, Endeavor Group, Evergy, Ferrari, First Advantage, Fiverr, GoodRx, Haemonetics, Hanesbrands, Hilton Grand Vacations, Himax Technologies, Hyatt Hotels, Installed Building Products, Intellia Therapeutics, Ironwood Pharmaceuticals, Janus International Group, Krispy Kreme, Lightspeed, Madison Square Garden Entertainment, Medical Properties Trust, N-able, NetScout Systems, Nexstar Media Group, Nomad Foods, Papa John’s, PAR Technology, Planet Fitness, Playtika, Privia Health, Roblox, Sally Beauty, SharkNinja, Six Flags, Spectrum Brands, Stevanato Group, Tapestry, Tower Semiconductor, US Foods, Viatris, Warby Parker, Warner Bros. Discovery, Warner Music Group & YETI Holdings will all report earnings Wednesday morning before the opening bell, with Akamai Technologies, Alarm.com, Americold Realty Trust, AMN Healthcare, Amplitude, Applied Optoelectronics, Arlo Technologies, Array Technologies, Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Babcock & Wilcox Enterprises, Blink Charging, Bloom Energy, CarGurus, Chuy’s, Collegium Pharmaceutical, Diodes, Dropbox, EverCommerce, Evolent Health, Expensify, Funko, Gen Digital, Genpact, Green Dot, Guardant Health, H&R Block, Health Catalyst, indie Semiconductor, JFrog, Lions Gate Entertainment, Marathon Digital Holdings, Mercer International, Mettler-Toledo, Navitas Semiconductor, Pacific Biosciences, Progyny, Rackspace Technology, Savers Value Village, Scripps, SoundHound AI, Sweetgreen, Synaptics, TechTarget, The Beauty Health Company, Trex, Unity Software, Victory Capital, Westrock Coffee Company, Xenon Pharmaceuticals, Yelp & ZipRecruiter all due to report after the session’s close.

Friday brings us Consumer Sentiment (prelim) data at 10 am & Monthly U.S. Federal Budget data at 2pm.

MC Networks, ANI Pharmaceuticals, Construction Partners, DigitalOcean, DNOW, Enbridge, Sylvamo, Telus & TELUS International will all report earnings before the opening bell rings on Friday morning to round out the week.

See you back here next week!

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACTS POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM OR DIA AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF climbed +2.65% this past week, as the VIX closed the week at 15.03 implying a one day change of +/- 0.98% & a one month change of +/-2.74% heading into the weekend.

Their RSI is sitting just underneath the neutral level at 49.75, coming back from the oversold level prior to the upwards volatility of the past week & change, while their MACD is still in bearish territory, but is moving towards the signal line looking for a bullish crossover in the coming days (pending no downward movement).

Volumes were -19.38% below average compared to the year prior (62,714,181 vs. 77,792,641), which does not signal much confidence in the week’s gains, given that three of the five sessions were advances.

The week kicked off on an uncertain note, as Monday’s session resulted in a high wave spinning top on lackluster volume.

While the day resulted in a slight advance, there was a wide range of testing to both the upside & downside that ultimately showed that investors were unsure as to where they valued SPY & its compenents.

Tuesday continued this theme, as volumes were even lower than Monday’s session & while prices opened higher than Monday, they tested down to around Monday’s close before ultimately taking a run a the 10 day moving average’s resistance.

While Tuesday was able to test just above the 10 DMA, it ultimately closed below it, signaling that there was not much confidence in SPY at that high of a price level.

Wednesday was more of the same, with even lower volumes & price levels orbiting around the 10 DMA.

The session gapped up to open above the 10 day moving average, tested slightly higher, before ultimately trending lower, testing just below the support of the 10 DMA & closing narrowly above it.

Thursday the volatility & confusion carried on as the session opened on a gap down & looked set to test lower, but ultimately turned around & made a run at the 10 DMA’s resistance again.

The volume of Thursday looks like a squeeze for SPY, as it was the week’s highest volume session (although as noted above, volumes were weak for the week) & despite the bullish daily performance following the gap down open, the 10 day moving average’s resistance still held up.

Friday validated all of the concerns mentioned above in terms of uncertainty & a lack of strength & conviction, as the session opened on a gap higher, ran up the the 50 day moving average’s resistance but was unable to test it & the day’s candle resulted in a shooting star (bearish).

It is worth noting here that the volume from Friday’s +0.94% session is one of the lowest volume readings of the past year, indicating a lack of confidence in market participants.

SPY’s Average True Range has continued to advance as last week was rather volatile & should be expected to continue staying higher in the coming week(s).

A key area to be watching this week is the price relationship to the 50 DMA’s resistance, as well as the 10 DMA’s support.

There is now a basket around the price where the 10 DMA is creating a rounded bottom of support, while the 50 DMA is creating a rounding top of resistance & whichever one holds up the strongest will dictate the direction that SPY’s price moves in.

The low volumes & other signals of uncertainty from last week favor the 50 DMA holding up & the continued consolidation/decline, but that will largely be dictated by the continued earnings calls, as well as the Fed’s interest rate announcement & press conference on Wednesday (all are listed below).

Given how close we are to SPY’s all-time high & how sparse support levels are from the current price level it does not appear as though anything but a solid announcement of rate cuts will be able to continued prices moving higher at these levels, but again, the clues will come by how the 10 & 50 day moving averages hold up in the beginning of the week, as well as if the abnormally low volume trend continues.

SPY has support at the $502.57 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 3.5:1), $501.94 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 3.5:1), $493.86 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.25:1) & $489.20/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2.25:1), with resistance at the $510.40 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2.31:1) & $524.61/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF that tracks the NASDAQ 100 advanced +3.94% last week, faring the best of the major four indexes.

Their RSI is trending back towards neutral from oversold levels & currently sits at 48.91, while their MACD is in a similar position to SPY’s, still bearish but approaching the signal line for a potential crossover in the coming days.

Volumes were -2.39% lower than average compared to the year prior (47,908,620 vs. 49,080,898), which is interesting given the tech-heavy makeup of QQQ vs. SPY & appears to be directly tied into the tech company earnings calls of last week.

Much like SPY, QQQ’s week also kicked off to an uncertain tune with a high wave spinning top candle being the result of Monday’s session.

While Monday’s Open-Close price levels favored the higher half of the candle, the length of the lower shadow should pop out to readers as it shows that there was a large test lower, but the rest of the week’s gains were set up via the open & closing levels of the day.

Tuesday saw light volume force a large daily advance which does not signal much confidence in the upwards move.

Wednesday opened on a gap up near the 10 day moving average, tested slightly higher, before ultimately testing lower & closing lower on the day (filled in candle’s real body) & beneath the 10 day moving average.

This trend continued on Thursday, where QQQ opened on a gap down to below the lowest point of Tuesday’s session, but on the week’s highest volume was able to climb higher & close above its open, while still ending as a declining session & beneath the 10 day moving average’s resistance.

Friday delivered additional sentiment of uncertainty, as prices gapped up above the 10 DMA & continued higher on the day, but on the week’s weakest volume.

This is worth noting as well, as the week itself had just below average volume compared to the year prior, so the large one day jump heading into the weekend should be viewed skeptically.

QQQ’s Average True Range has continued to climb throughout the month of April & will likely continue to do so for the coming week(s) as volatility is unlikely to be subsiding in the near-term.

Much like SPY, QQQ enters this week with prices wedged in between the support of the 10 day moving average & the resistance of the 50 day moving average.

QQQ has more support levels near its current price than SPY, but given how close QQQ is to an all-time high this may not be able to prevent a slide to the downside as strongly as it would be assumed if their price level were slightly lower.

Keeping an eye on where prices move in relation to those moving averages this week & how it aligns with the daily volume readings will be key for anticipating which direction prices will move.

QQQ has support at the $429.28 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.5:1), $425.20 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2.08:1), $421.07 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 9.5:1) & $416.24/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 0.7:0*), with resistance at the $433.08 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2.36:1), $436.44 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.32:1), $438.56 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.32:1) & $445.95/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.67:1) price levels.

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF added +2.7% last week, as investors were even cautiously interested in piling into the small cap names.

Their RSI is nearing the neutral level of 50 & currently sits at 47.35 in the wake of the declines of April, while their MACD looks set to bullishly cross the signal line during Monday’s session.

Volumes were -15.51% less than the average of the year prior (29,472,933 vs. 34,884,695), which highlights that “cautiously interested” mentioned above, as while there was a weekly advance, it was at noticeably low participation rates.

The week opened on a bullish note, as a high wave candle kicked off Monday in the direction higher for the week.

Tuesday the climb continued higher & the ten day moving average was smashed through, but the day’s high later became a resistance point which is something that will need to be paid attention to this week.

Wednesday saw an uncertain outlook from market participants for IWM, as a spinning top candle formed with Tuesday’s candle to create a bearish harami pattern on the second lowest volumes of the week.

The 10 day moving average’s support held up though on Wednesday, as the session’s candle’s lower shadow did not test the 10 DMA.

Thursday is where the weakness in IWM began to show, as following the bearish harami session the day opened on a gap down that was around the 10 day moving average.

Briefly testing well beneath the 10 DMA’s resistance, bulls regained control during the day & forced the session to close above its open, but still for a loss on the day on high volume for the week, much like the “squeeze” nature we saw above with SPY & QQQ.

Friday continued the march of uncertainty, with a gap up session that closed +0.97% on extremely weak volume heading into the weekend.

This did not display much in terms of confidence in IWM, especially when paired with the fact that the resistance level set on Tuesday was not able to be reached during Friday’s session, signaling that investors did not have much appetite towards the upside.

IWM’s Average True Range is currently in the middle of its range & trending downwards, as the modest gains of this week were able to cut off some of the bleeding from volatility that they’ve been experiencing over the past couple of months (April in particular).

Much like SPY & QQQ, the basket created around the price by the 10 day moving average (support) & 50 day moving average (resistance) will be an area to keep a close eye on this week.

Both moving averages are moving towards one another & will ultimately squeeze the price in one direction or the other & the current favorite is the 50 DMA winning out when you consider how many resistance touch-points exist between the $198.90-$202.12 range (the latter being the 50 DMA as of Friday’s close), while there is no support for ~1.5% below Friday’s closing price.

IWM has support at the $196.60 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.38:1), $195.89 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.06:1), $195.62 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.06:1) & $191.34/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.3:1), with resistance at the $198.90 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.47:1), $199.16 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.47:1), $199.32 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.47:1) & $202.12/share (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.08:1) price levels.

DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF had another close-range week, only gaining +0.66% for the week.

Their RSI is trending towards neutral & sits currently at 45.52, while their MACD is currently bullish, but muted & not looking particularly strong.

Volumes were +10.82% above average last week vs. the year prior (3,909,847 vs. 3,527,965), which should be noted as Thursday’s declining session was the strongest volume of the week.

Monday looked a bit different for DIA vs. the other major indexes, as a gap up session on a high wave spinning top candle brought prices above the resistance of the 10 day moving average.

The session did test below the 10 DMA’s support throughout the day, but rallied higher, while closing in the middle range of the day’s candle.

Tuesday flashed the caution lights for DIA, as the session jumped higher & ended in an advancing day, but on the lowest volume of the week, indicating that there was limited belief & positive sentiment behind the move upwards.

Wednesday continued supporting that sentiment, when the day resulted in a spinning top candle that completed a bearish harami with Tuesday’s candle & set the stage for Thursday’s gap lower session.

Thursday gapped down & opened beneath the 10 DMA’s resistance, tested lower (well into the prior week’s range), but was ultimately able to recover & close higher on the day & above the 10 day moving average’s support.

The 10 DMA’s support held up for Friday’s session, which opened just above it & resulted in a +0.35% daily advance, although prices did test slightly higher than the closing level throughout the day.

DIA’s Average True Range is still on the higher end of its range, but is declining as the past week was less volatile than the rest of the month of April was.

As with the other three major indexes mentioned above, the relationship to DIA’s price & the 10 & 50 DMA’s will be the central focus this week on a technical standpoint, as well as how the daily volumes wind up.

DIA’s chart is more situated like SPY’s & does not have many support levels near the current price, so should the 10 DMA’s support be broken it will be difficult for them to find footing near the current price level.

Watching each day’s volume levels will provide insight into which direction market participants will be favoring, as well as into the strength of support/resistance levels that the price encounters over the coming days.

DIA has support at the $380.46 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.67:1), $378.75 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.25:1), $375.94 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.33:1) & $360.76/share (200 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 7:1), with resistance at the $385.59 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.25:1), $387.42 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.25:1), $387.66 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.25:1) & $398.61/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.6:0*) price levels.

The Week Ahead

Monday does not have any major economic data scheduled for release.

Domino’s Pizza, Franklin Resources, JinkoSolar, ON Semiconductor, Revvity & SoFi Technologies report earnings before Monday’s opening bell, with Amkor, Arch Capital, Brixmor Property, Chegg, Coursera, Crown Holdings, Cushman & Wakefield, CVR Energy, Douglas Dynamics, Element Solutions, Everest Group, F5 Networks, Flowserve, Harmonic, Kforce, Lattice Semiconductor, LTC Properties, Medifast, MicroStrategy, NXP Semiconductors, Paramount Global, PotlatchDeltic, Qiagen, Rambus, Sanmina, SBA Communications, Sensata Technologies, Sun Communities, Welltower, Woodward & Yum China schedule to report after the closing bell.

Employment Cost Index data is released Tuesday at 8:30 am, followed by S&P Case-Schiller Home Price Index (20 Cities) at 9 am, Chicago Business Barometer (PMI) at 9:45 am & Consumer Confidence data at 10 am.

Tuesday morning brings us earnings from 3M, ACI Worldwide, Air Products, American Electric, American Tower, Archer-Daniels-Midland, Armstrong World Industries, ATI, Brinker International, CenterPoint Energy, Coca-Cola, Corning, Dana, Eaton, Ecolab, Eli Lilly, Enterprise Products, Equitrans Midstream, Franklin Electric, Gartner, GE HealthCare, Graphic Packaging, Harmony Biosciences, Hubbell, Illinois Tool Works, Incyte, Lear, Macerich, Marathon Petroleum, Martin Marietta Materials, McDonald’s, Molson Coors Brewing, MPLX, Northern Oil & Gas, Oaktree Specialty Lending Corp, OneMain Holdings, PACCAR, PayPal Holdings, Penske Automotive Group, Public Service, Sirius XM Holdings, Sysco, Taylor Morrison Home, Tenet Healthcare, Trane Technologies, UFP Industries & Zebra Technologies, with Amazon.com, Advanced Micro Devices, Ashland, Axos Financial, Blackbaud, Boston Properties, Caesars Entertainment, Chesapeake Energy, Clorox, Denny’s, Diamondback Energy, DigitalBridge, Edison International, Equitable Holdings, Essex Property, Exelixis, Extra Space Storage, Gulfport Energy, Hillenbrand, Huron Consulting, Invitation Homes, Leggett & Platt, Lemonade, Lending Club, Littelfuse, LPL Financial, Lumen Technologies, Matson, Mirion Technologies, Mondelez International, O-I Glass, ONEOK, Park Hotels & Resorts, Piedmont Office Realty Trust, Pinterest, Powell Industries, Prudential, Public Storage, Republic Services, Skyworks Solutions, STAG Industrial, Starbucks, Stryker, Super Micro Computer, Tanger, UDR, Unum Group, Voya Financial, W.P. Carey & Werner Enterprises all reporting after the closing bell.

Wednesday kicks off with ADP Employment data at 8:15 am, followed by Construction Spending, ISM Manufacturing & Job Openings data at 10 am, the anticipated FOMC Interest Rate Decision at 2pm, Fed Chair Powell’s Press Conference at 2:30 pm & Auto Sales data at 5:30 pm.

Mastercard, AerCap Holdings, Alkermes, APA, Ares Capital, Automatic Data Processing, Avista, Avnet, Axalta Coating Systems, Bausch + Lomb, Berry Petroleum, Bio-Techne, Brookfield Infrastructure, CDW, CGI Group, Chefs’ Warehouse, Clean Harbors, Conduent, CTS Corp, CVS Health, Dayforce, DuPont, Estee Lauder, Extreme Networks, Garmin, Generac, Gibraltar Industries, GlaxoSmithKline, Global Payments, IDEXX Laboratories, Johnson Controls, KKR, Kraft Heinz, Life Time Group Holdings, LivaNova, Marriott International, Mastercard, Neurocrine Biosciences, Norwegian Cruise Line, OGE Energy, Parsons, Pfizer, PPL Corp, Repligen, Scotts Miracle-Gro, Silgan Holdings, Smith Douglas Homes, Spire, Stagwell, Vita Coco, Trinity Industries, TTM Technologies, Westlake, Wingstop & Yum! Brands are all schedule to report earnings before Wednesday’s open, with Acadia Healthcare, Aflac, Albemarle, Alkami Technology, Allstate, American Financial Group, American International Group, American Water Works, ANSYS, Avis Budget, Axcelis Technologies, AXIS Capital, Bally’s Corp, Beazer Homes, BrightView, C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Camping World, Carvana, CF Industries, Clearwater Analytics, Coeur Mining, Cognizant Technology Solutions, Comstock Resources, Corteva, Cross Country Healthcare, Curtiss-Wright, Devon Energy, Digi International, DoorDash, eBay, Envista Holdings, EPR Properties, Equity Commonwealth, Etsy, eXp World Holdings, Fastly, First Solar, Flex, Freshworks, Glaukos, Green Brick Partners, Hanover Insurance, Heartland Financial, Herbalife Nutrition, Host Hotels & Resorts, Hudson Pacific Properties, Informatica, Jazz Pharmaceuticals, Kemper, Knowles, Kulicke & Soffa, Marathon Oil, MetLife, MGIC Investment, MGM Resorts, Mister Car Wash, Monolithic Power, Mosaic, Murphy USA, National Fuel Gas, National Storage Affiliates, Netgear, Paramount Group, Paycom Software, Pilgrim’s Pride, Procore Technologies, PTC, Qorvo, Qualcomm, Radian Group, Rayonier, Rush Street Interactive, Ryman Hospitality, Schrodinger, Sprouts Farmers Market, Sunnova Energy, Tetra Tech, UGI Corp, Upwork, Valmont Industries, Ventas, VICI Properties, Wolfspeed & Zillow all reporting after the session’s close.

Initial Jobless Claims, U.S. Trade Deficit & U.S. Productivity data are released Thursday at 8:30 am, followed by Factory Orders data at 10 am.

Thursday starts off on a busy note earnings-wise with AGCO Corp, Agios Pharmaceuticals, Altice USA, Apollo Global Management, Aptiv, ArcelorMittal, Ares Management, Arrow Electronics, Baxter, Becton, Dickinson and Company, BorgWarner, BrightSpring Health Services, Canada Goose, Cardinal Health, Church & Dwight, Cinemark, CNH Industrial, Cognex, ConocoPhillips, Cummins, CyberArk Software, Dominion Energy, Driven Brands, Enovis Corporation, Eversource Energy, Exelon, ExlService, Ferrari, Frontdoor, Frontier Group Holdings, Howmet Aerospace, Huntington Ingalls, IdaCorp, InMode, Insight Enterprises, Intercontinental Exchange, InterDigital, IQVIA, Iron Mountain, Itron, ITT, Janus Henderson Group, Kellanova, Kimbell Royalty Partners, Kimco Realty, Kontoor Brands, Lamar Advertising, Lancaster Colony, Lincoln National, Linde, LXP Industrial Trust, Malibu Boats, Moderna, Moody’s, Murphy Oil, Organon, Parker-Hannifin, Peabody Energy, Peloton Interactive, PENN Entertainment, Pinnacle West, Pitney Bowes, Quanta Services, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Sabre, Sealed Air, Shake Shack, Shutterstock, SolarWinds, Southern, Stanley Black & Decker, The Cigna Group, Turning Point Brands, Utz Brands, Vontier, Vulcan Materials, Walker & Dunlop, Wayfair, Wendy’s, WestRock, XPEL, Xylem & Zoetis all reporting before the opening bell, followed by Apple, AAON, ACCO Brands, AES, American Homes 4 Rent, Amgen, Arcosa, Asure Software, Beacon Roofing Supply, BigBear.ai, Bill.com, BJ Restaurants, Block, Booking Holdings, Bright Horizons, Cable ONE, Camden Property, Civitas Resources, Cloudflare, Cohu, Coinbase Global, Con Edison, Coterra Energy, DaVita, Diamondrock Hospitality, Digital Realty Trust, Dolby Labs, DraftKings, El Pollo Loco, EOG Resources, Expedia Group, Federal Realty, Five9, Floor & Decor, Fortinet, Fox Factory Holding, GoDaddy, Hologic, Huntsman, Illumina, Ingersoll-Rand, Kilroy Realty, Live Nation, MasTec, Motorola Solutions, MP Materials, Omega Health, Open Text, Opendoor Technologies, Paylocity, Pioneer Natural Resources, Post, Quaker Chemical, RE/MAX Holdings, Reinsurance Group of America, Rocket Companies, Ryan Specialty Group, Silicon Motion, SM Energy, Southwestern Energy, Tandem Diabetes Care, Texas Roadhouse, U.S. Steel, Universal Display, Viavi, Workiva, WW, Xenia Hotels & Xponential Fitness after the closing bell.

Friday winds the week down with U.S. Employment Report, U.S. Unemployment Rate, U.S. Hourly Wages & Hourly Wages Year-over-Year data at 8:30 am & Consumer Credit data at 3pm.

The earnings week rounds out with Adient, American Axle, Brookfield Renewable Partners, Cboe Global Markets, CBRE Group, Chart Industries, Cheniere Energy, Corebridge Financial, Essent Group, Fluor, Green Plains, Hershey Foods, Imperial Oil, Koppers Holdings, Newmark Group, Owens & Minor, Plains All American, Protolabs, Trimble, Uniti Group & XPO all scheduled to report before the opening bell.

See you back here next week!

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM OR DIA AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***

Since our last check in on SPY, QQQ, IWM & DIA’s Price Level:Volume Sentiment markets have seen an uptick in volatility & descended ~4-5% from their recent 52-week highs (all-time highs for 3 of the 4, IWM being the exception).

While there have been a few bullish days this week, the trend of increased volatility looks to continue, particularly as we are in earnings season & experiencing geo-political tensions that are higher than they’ve been in the past year.

With this in mind, the article below outlines the Buyer:Seller (or Seller:Buyer) sentiment at the various price levels that SPY (S&P 500), QQQ (NASDAQ 100), IWM (Russell 2000) & DIA (Dow Jones Industrial Average) ETFs have traded at over the past few years to gain insight into how market participants may feel at different support & resistance levels.

Each section below contains a view of each index ETF’s chart (for a technical breakdown of each ETF’s chart please see this past weekend’s market review note), as well as a list of their current one year support & resistance levels with the volume sentiment noted beneath it on the table.

There is an additional table beneath this table with each price level’s sentiment, as well as a typed text version below that is able to be copied & pasted.

Note that “NULL, 0:0*” values denote areas that each name has traded at but with limited volume data to work with from a comparison standpoint in terms of creating a ratio of buyers:sellers (or vice versa).

Also, prices that do have a ratio of buyers:sellers (or vice versa) where the denominator is 0 are denoted with an asterisk “*” as well.

In the written lists of the price levels & volume sentiments the price levels that contain support & resistance levels are marked in BOLD.

Recall that at price extremes such as the highs that we have recently hit there will tend to be skewed data due to the small sample size & factor that into how you interpret each price level’s sentiment.

This is intended to serve as an additional tool to use during your due diligence process & is not meant to replace doing your own research & is not financial advice.

Also, captions & images are not aligned due to a JavaScript issue, apologies for the inconvenience & working on a solution to fix it.

Price Level:Volume Sentiment Analysis For SPY (S&P 500) ETF

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF has recently fallen from a new all-time high in the wake of increased volatility & looks set to continue cooling down in the coming week(s).

With limited support levels due to the rapid ascent of its price between late October 2023 & March of 2024 it is important to have an understanding of how market participants have behaved at the price levels that will be serving as support.

Below is a list of the price levels with the volume sentiment each has traded at over the past 2-3 years.

$525 – NULL – 0:0*; +3.83% From Current Price Level

$520 – Even – 1:1; +2.84% From Current Price Level

$515 – Buyers – 2.5:1; +1.85% From Current Price Level

$510 – Sellers – 2.31:1; +0.86% From Current Price Level

$505 – Buyers – 1.29:1; -0.13% From Current Price Level – 10 & 50 Day Moving Averages – Current Price Box***

$500 – Sellers – 3.5:1; -1.12% From Current Price Level

$496 – Buyers – 2.25:1; -1.91% From Current Price Level

$492 – Buyers – 1.25:1; -2.7% From Current Price Level

$488 – Sellers – 2.25:1; -3.49% From Current Price Level

$484 – Buyers – 2.2:1; -4.28% From Current Price Level

$480 – Buyers – 2.33:1; -5.07% From Current Price Level

$476 – NULL – 0:0*; -5.86% From Current Price Level

$472 – Buyers – 1.71:1; -6.65% From Current Price Level

$468 – Buyers – 1.73:1; -7.45% From Current Price Level

$464 – Sellers – 2.33:1; -8.24% From Current Price Level – 200 Day Moving Average*

$460 – Buyers – 0.4:0*; -9.03% From Current Price Level

$456 – Buyers – 1:0*; -9.82% From Current Price Level

$452 – Buyers – 3.11:1; -10.61% From Current Price Level

$448 – Buyers – 1.84:1; -11.4% From Current Price Level

$444 – Buyers – 1.67:1; -12.19% From Current Price Level

$440 – Buyers – 1.3:1; -12.98% From Current Price Level

$436 – Buyers – 2:1; -13.77% From Current Price Level

$432 – Even – 1:1; -14.57% From Current Price Level

$428 – Buyers – 1.35:1; -15.36% From Current Price Level

$424 – Sellers – 1.49:1; -16.15% From Current Price Level

$420 – Buyers – 1.25:1; -16.94% From Current Price Level

$416 – Sellers – 3.79:1; -17.73% From Current Price Level

$412 – Buyers – 2.04:1; -18.52% From Current Price Level

$408 – Buyers – 1.35:1; -19.31% From Current Price Level

$404 – Sellers – 1.16:1; -20.1% From Current Price Level

$400 – Sellers – 1.37:1; -20.89% From Current Price Level

$396 – Sellers – 1.7:1; -21.68% From Current Price Level

$392 – Buyers – 3.82:1; -22.48% From Current Price Level

$388 – Buyers – 1.73:1; -23.27% From Current Price Level

$384 – Sellers – 1.36:1; -24.06% From Current Price Level

$380 – Sellers – 3.29:1; -24.85% From Current Price Level

$376 – Sellers – 1.67:1; -25.64% From Current Price Level

$372 – Sellers – 2.57:1; -26.43% From Current Price Level

$368 – Sellers – 1.49:1; -27.22% From Current Price Level

$364 – Sellers – 1.53:1; -28.01% From Current Price Level

$360 – Sellers – 1.93:1; -28.8% From Current Price Level

$356 – Buyers – 1.43:1; -29.6% From Current Price Level

$352 – Sellers – 3.2:0*; -30.39% From Current Price Level

$348 – Sellers – 3.6:0*; -31.18% From Current Price Level

$344 – NULL – 0:0*; -31.97% From Current Price Level

$340 – NULL – 0:0*; -32.76% From Current Price Level

Price Level:Volume Sentiment Analysis For QQQ (NASDAQ 100) ETF

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF tracks the performance of the NASDAQ 100 & has also recenly descended from its all-time high.

It has more consolidated support levels than SPY does as it did not rise as rapidly as SPY, but given the tech-heavy nature of the index it is still susceptible to increased volatility in the coming week(s), making it worth reviewing the strength of the support levels beneath it.

Below is a list of the price levels with the volume sentiment each has traded at over the past 2-3 years.

$452 – NULL – 0:0*; +6.34% From Current Price Level

$448 – NULL – 0:0*; +5.39% From Current Price Level

$444 – Buyers – 3.67:1; +4.45% From Current Price Level

$440 – Buyers -1.3:1; +3.51% From Current Price Level

$436 – Buyers – 1.32:1; +2.57% From Current Price Level – 50 Day Moving Average*

$432 – Sellers – 2.36:1; +1.63% From Current Price Level

$428 – Buyers – 2.5:1; +0.69% From Current Price Level – 10 Day Moving Average*

$424 – Sellers – 2.08:1; -0.25% From Current Price Level – Current Price Box*

$420 – Buyers – 9.5:1; -1.19% From Current Price Level

$416 – Sellers – 0.7:0*; -2.13% From Current Price Level

$412 – Buyers – 0.6:0*; -3.07% From Current Price Level

$408 – Buyers – 1.8:1; -4.02% From Current Price Level

$404 – Buyers – 4.4:1; -4.96% From Current Price Level

$400 – Sellers – 1.36:1; -5.9% From Current Price Level

$396 – Buyers – 3:1; -6.84% From Current Price Level

$392 – Buyers – 1.33:1; -7.78% From Current Price Level – 200 Day Moving Average*

$388 – Buyers – 4.8:1; -8.72% From Current Price Level

$384 – Buyers – 1.13:1; -9.66% From Current Price Level

$380 – Buyers – 1.85:1; -10.6% From Current Price Level

$376 – Buyers – 4.25:1; -11.54% From Current Price Level

$372 – Sellers – 1.25:1; -12.49% From Current Price Level

$368 – Sellers – 1.47:1; -13.43% From Current Price Level

$364 – Buyers – 1.82:1; -14.37% From Current Price Level

$360 – Buyers – 1.16:1; -15.31% From Current Price Level

$356 – Sellers – 1.21:1; -16.25% From Current Price Level

$352 – Even – 1:1; -17.19% From Current Price Level

$348 – Buyers – 1.86:1; -18.13% From Current Price Level

$344 – Sellers – 1.23:1; -19.07% From Current Price Level

$340 – Buyers – 3.6:1; -20.01% From Current Price Level

$336 – Sellers – 1.08:1; -20.95% From Current Price Level

$332 – Buyers – 1.44:1; -21.9% From Current Price Level

$328 – Sellers – 1.33:1; -22.84% From Current Price Level

$324 – Buyers – 3.17:1; -23.78% From Current Price Level

$320 – Buyers – 2.2:1; -24.72% From Current Price Level

$316 – Sellers – 1.42:1; -25.66% From Current Price Level

$312 – Sellers – 2.09:1; -26.6% From Current Price Level

$308 – Sellers – 1.12:1; -27.54% From Current Price Level

$304 – Buyers – 1.51:1; -28.48% From Current Price Level

$300 – Sellers – 1.68:1; -29.42% From Current Price Level

$296 – Buyers – 2.07:1; -30.36% From Current Price Level

$292 – Buyers – 1.66:1; -31.31% From Current Price Level

$288 – Buyers – 1.31:1; -32.25% From Current Price Level

$284 – Sellers – 2.29:1; -33.19% From Current Price Level

$280 – Sellers – 1.08:1; -34.13% From Current Price Level

$276 – Buyers – 1.13:1; -35.07% From Current Price Level

$272 – Sellers – 1.94:1; -36.01% From Current Price Level

$268 – Buyers – 1.26:1; -36.95% From Current Price Level

$264 – Sellers – 1.25:1; -37.89% From Current Price Level

$260 – Sellers – 2.17:1; -38.83% From Current Price Level

$256 – Sellers – 3.3:0*; -39.77% From Current Price Level

Price Level:Volume Sentiment Analysis For IWM (Russell 2000) ETF

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF is coming off of a 52-week high, but it did not set an all-time high this past year like its three larger peers in this article.

They tend to trade more in an oscillating range, rather than the steeper ascent taken by SPY, QQQ & DIA, so they have more support levels around their current price than their peers.

However, the small cap index is not immune from the same volatility that the other indexes are experiencing.

Below is a list of the price levels with the volume sentiment each has traded at over the past 2-3 years.

$212 – NULL – 0:0*; +6.76% From Current Price Level

$208 – Buyers – 2.75:1; +4.75% From Current Price Level

$204 – Buyers – 1.83:1; +2.73% From Current Price Level

$200 – Buyers – 1.08:1; +0.72% From Current Price Level – 50 Day Moving Average*

$198 – Buyers – 2.47:1; -0.29% From Current Price Level – Current Price Box*

$196 – Buyers – 3.38:1; -1.29% From Current Price Level – 10 Day Moving Average*

$194 – Buyers – 1.06:1; -2.3% From Current Price Level

$192 – Sellers – 2.97:1; -3.31% From Current Price Level

$190 – Buyers – 1.3:1; -4.32% From Current Price Level

$188 – Sellers – 1.15:1; -5.32% From Current Price Level – 200 Day Moving Average*

$186 – Buyers – 2.56:1; -6.33% From Current Price Level

$184 – Buyers – 2.71:1; -7.34% From Current Price Level

$182 – Sellers – 1.04:1; -8.34% From Current Price Level

$180 – Sellers – 1.5:1; -9.35% From Current Price Level

$178 – Buyers – 1.76:1; -10.36% From Current Price Level

$176 – Buyers – 2.07:1; -11.37% From Current Price Level

$174 – Buyers – 1.31:1; -12.37% From Current Price Level

$172 – Buyers – 1.53:1; -13.38% From Current Price Level

$170 – Sellers – 2.07:1; -14.39% From Current Price Level

$168 – Sellers – 1.14:1; -15.4% From Current Price Level

$166 – Sellers – 3.13:1; -16.4% From Current Price Level

$164 – Sellers – 1.29:1; -17.41% From Current Price Level

$162 – Buyers – 1.5:1; -18.42% From Current Price Level

$160 – Sellers – 0.8:0*; -19.42% From Current Price Level

Price Level:Volume Sentiment Analysis For DIA (Dow Jones Industrial Average) ETF

DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF is also coming off of all-time highs set in March of 2024.

Below is a list of the price levels with the volume sentiment each has traded at over the past 3-4 years.

$396 – Buyers – 0.6:0*; +2.85% From Current Price Level

$392 – Sellers – 3.5:1; +1.81% From Current Price Level

$388 – Buyers – 1.08:1; +0.77% From Current Price Level

$384 – Sellers – 1.25:1; -0.26% From Current Price Level – Curren Price Box & 50 Day Moving Average**

$380 – Buyers – 2.67:1; -1.3% From Current Price Level – 10 Day Moving Average*

$376 – Buyers – 2.25:1; -2.34% From Current Price Level

$372 – Buyers – 3.33:1; -3.38% From Current Price Level

$368 – Buyers – 1.57:1; -4.42% From Current Price Level

$364 – NULL – 0:0*; -5.46% From Current Price Level

$360 – Buyers – 7:1; -6.5% From Current Price Level – 200 Day Moving Average*

$356 – Sellers – 2:1; -7.54% From Current Price Level

$352 – Buyers – 0.1:0*; -8.58% From Current Price Level

$348 – Buyers – 3.43:1; -9.62% From Current Price Level

$344 – Sellers – 1.03:1; -10.65% From Current Price Level

$340 – Buyers – 1.38:1; -11.69% From Current Price Level

$336 – Buyers – 1.64:1; -12.73% From Current Price Level

$332 – Buyers – 1.18:1; -13.77% From Current Price Level

$328 – Sellers – 1.12:1; -14.81% From Current Price Level

$324 – Buyers – 1.1:1; -15.85% From Current Price Level

$320 – Sellers – 1.44:1; -16.89% From Current Price Level

$316 – Sellers – 1.14:1; -17.93% From Current Price Level

$312 – Sellers – 1.64:1; -18.97% From Current Price Level

$308 – Buyers – 1.04:1; -20% From Current Price Level

$304 – Buyers – 1.69:1; -21.04% From Current Price Level

$300 – Buyers – 1.06:1; -22.08% From Current Price Level

$296 – Buyers – 1.28:1; -23.12% From Current Price Level

$292 – Even – 1:1; -24.16% From Current Price Level

$288 – Sellers – 1.56:1; -25.2% From Current Price Level

$284 – Buyers – 1.31:1; -26.24% From Current Price Level

$280 – Sellers – 1.36:1; -27.28% From Current Price Level

$276 – Buyers – 1.17:1; -28.32% From Current Price Level

$272 – Buyers – 4:1; -29.35% From Current Price Level

$268 – Buyers – Buyers – 7:1; -30.39% From Current Price Level

$264 – Sellers – 1.17:1; -31.43% From Current Price Level

$260 – Buyers – 1.46:1; -32.47% From Current Price Level

$256 – Sellers – 1.17:1; -33.51% From Current Price Level

$252 – Buyers – 2.2:1; -34.55% From Current Price Level

$248 – Buyers – 1.46:1; -35.59% From Current Price Level

$244 – Buyers – 4:1; -36.63% From Current Price Level

$240 – Buyers – 1.8:1; -37.67% From Current Price Level

$236 – Buyers – 1.25:1; -38.7% From Current Price Level

$232 – Sellers – 4.5:1; -39.74% From Current Price Level

$228 – Buyers – 6:1; -40.78% From Current Price Level

$224 – Buyers – 1.17:1; -41.82% From Current Price Level

$220 – Buyers – 2:1; -42.86% From Current Price Level

$216 – Even – 1:1; -43.9% From Current Price Level

$212 – Sellers – 0.3:0*; -44.94% From Current Price Level

$208 – Buyers – 1.8:0*; -45.98% From Current Price Level

$204 – Buyers – 0.3:0*; -47.02% From Current Price Level

$200 – Sellers – 1:0*; -48.05% From Current Price Level

$198 – Buyers – 0.4:0*; -48.57% From Current Price Level

$196 – Buyers – 0.9:0*; -49.09% From Current Price Level

$194 – Sellers – 0.8:0*; -49.61% From Current Price Level

$192 – NULL – 0:0*; -50.13% From Current Price Level

$190 – Buyers – 0.8:0*; -50.65% From Current Price Level

$188 – NULL – 0:0*; -51.17% From Current Price Level

$186 – Buyers – 0.7:0* -51.69% From Current Price Level

$184 – NULL – 0:0*; -52.21% From Current Price Level

$182 – NULL – 0:0*; -52.73% From Current Price Levels

$180 – NULL – 0:0*; -53.25% From Current Price Level

$178 – Sellers – 0.7:0*; -53.77% From Current Price Level

$176 – NULL – 0:0*; -54.29% From Current Price Level

$174 – NULL – 0:0*; -54.81% From Current Price Level

$172 – Sellers – 0.8:0*; -55.33% From Current Price Level

$170 – NULL – 0:0*; -55.85% From Current Price Level

$168 – NULL – 0:0*; -56.37% From Current Price Level

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM OR DIA AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF fell -3.07% this past week, having the second worst weekly performance of the major four indexes, in a week where the VIX closing at 18 indicates anticipated one day moves of +/- 1.18% & a monthly anticipated move of +/-3.41%.

Their RSI is approaching oversold territory & currently sits at 31.21, while their MACD continues lower in a bearish trend that began at the beginning of the month.

Volumes were +7.08% above average last week compared to the year prior (83,634,580 vs. 78,101,687), which should be noted by market participants given that all five days of the week resulted in declines.

It’s not unreasonable for folks to begin hopping out of the pool to protect their profits after the rapid ascent SPY has had over the past six months, but it appears that there may be more to it under the hood.

Monday kicked off the week on a very sour note for SPY, with a large bearish engulfing candle that eclipsed Friday’s entire session, while being denied by the resistance of the 10 day moving average & then proceeding to crash below the 50 DMA & close below it.

Tuesday continued the declines, but in a more cautious manner as it didn’t have near the volume of Monday (second highest of the week) & resulted in a spinning top, which cast uncertainty onto how the rest of the week would go.

The sellers came back on Wednesday, forming another bearish engulfing pattern & testing the waters out below the $500/share price level for SPY, although on similar volumes as Tuesday.

Thursday painted a more bearish image, as the declines continued on similar volumes, but price action was focused more towards the bottom of the day’s candlestick in terms of the real body, which has bearish implications.

Friday the week ended on a wildly bearish note, as the 10 day moving average crossed bearishly through the 50 day moving average on the highest volumes of the week, resulting in a -0.87% decline.

While SPY tested above $500/share briefly on Friday, its open & close were both below it, meaning that the $501.94 resistance level is holding strong.

As we enter a new week there will likely be some form of a consolidation range beneath this price mark before a move lower to test the support at $489.20.

With prices now no longer enjoying the support of the 50 DMA, one thing to keep an eye on moving forward is in the event of future declines, how the support levels are spread out.

After SPY’s rapid ascent over the past 6 months or so there are not as many support levels nearby compared to other indexes that grew at more controlled rates.

This leaves SPY open to potential declines as there isn’t much to find footing on should a couple more declining sessions occur in the coming week(s).

Their Average True Range is still climbing after a week rocked with volatility, which will be another area to keep an eye on this upcoming week, as increased volatility will result in the testing of these unstable support levels.

SPY has support at the $489.20 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $476.07 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $464.99 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $463.56/share (200 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), with resistance at the $501.94 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), 508.42 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $509.66 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $524.61/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF that tracks the NASDAQ 100 declined -5.39% last week, as investors & market participants shunned the technology heavy index during a week widely spent profit taking.

Their RSI is in oversold territory & currently sits at 29.78, while their MACD continues its bearish nosedive that began at the beginning of the month.

Volumes were +17.85% above average last week compared to the year before’s average (57,927,820 vs. 49,155,742), which is cause for concern given that there was only one bullish session, which had the second lowest volume of the week.

Much like SPY, QQQ began last week opening above the 10 day moving average, before ultimately declining beneath it & being unable to be supported by the 50 DMA.

Tuesday continued the negative theme for QQQ, as the session resulted in a gravestone doji on the second weakest volume of the week.

The weakness carried into Wednesday when another wide range declining day set a bearish engulfing pattern & volumes were higher than Friday’s “slight advancing” session.

Thursday we saw further declines but on the lowest volumes of the week, which begged the question of if market participants were maybe becoming tired of selling & if they’d be happy with the current price levels.

Friday arrived & showed that they weren’t, as the highest volume session of the week pushed prices down below the $415/share price level to enter the weekend at $414.65/share.

Friday’s volume was also noteworthy as in addition to being the largest of the week, it is one of the largest in the entire past year, and still came in the wake of a week filled with declines, signaling investor sentiment is currently weak.

Another area for concern is that after Friday’s close, the next support level for QQQ is ~-0.5% away, and from that support level should it be broken, the next one is an additional ~-4.2% lower from there (~4.7% total decline from Friday’s closing price).

The good news is that the support level is question happens to be the 200 day moving average, but given how slow that average moves it is unlikely to advance much higher & save the decline.

Volatility has kicked up dramatically for QQQ & their Average True Range is nearing the top of its chart as a result.

Like SPY, there should be some form of early week consolidation, particularly with no major economic data being released on Monday.

How long that range can hold up will hinge on the strength of the $412.37 support level, but it should at least provide the decline with a breather & some time for oscillators to cool down.

QQQ has support at the $412.37 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.6:0*), $395 (200 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers 0.4:0*), $394.82 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers 0.4:0*) & $392.63/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers 0.4:0*), with resistance at the $416.24 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 0.8:0*), $421.07 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 5.5:1), $429.28 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.07:1) & $433.08/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.5:1) price levels.

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF dropped -2.79% this past week, as market participants were eager to sell their small cap holdings.

Their RSI is currently moving away from the oversold level, but sits at 33.79, while their MACD is still suffering from a bearish April.

Volumes were +18.01% above average compared to the year prior (41,142,740 vs. 34,864,840), as market participants were eager to take profits off of the table.

However, Friday’s session had the second highest volume of the week on its only advancing day, which we’ll dive into shortly.

Monday was a wide range declining session that set the stage for the rest of the week’s bearishness.

Tuesday was a high wave candle with a spinning top that temporarily flashed perhaps there was some hope for the bulls as it closed above where it opened, despite being a declining session on what was the highest volume day of the week.

Wednesday IWM completed a bearish engulfing pattern, swiping down any chances of there being bullish sentiment for the week & Thursday’s candle followed suit, trending & testing lower with the candle’s real body showing that at the open & close, market participants were feeling bearish.

Then we get to Friday, which was the primary options expiration date for April of 2024, where it appears that there was quite an appetite for covering positions, as IWM advanced only +0.16%, but on the highest volume of the week.

The small advance on high volume is not bullish, but Monday does not feature any major economic data releases, so there may be momentum carried over into this upcoming week.

Much like SPY & QQQ were noted earlier, it would not be surprising to see IWM form a consolidation range early in the week as we wait for earnings data & economic data to be reported.

IWM has more support levels nearby than the aforementioned index ETFs due to the way it trades in more of an oscillating manner compared to larger cap index peers who trade more in terms of ascent & descent without spending much time in trading ranges.

Their Average True Range is currently declining after the gap down last week had it advancing, but it will likely see an uptick in the coming week(s).

IWM has support at the $189.78 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.5:1), $189.58 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.5:1), $188.53 (200 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.5:1) & $187.19/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.62:1), with resistance at the $195.89 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.21:1), $196.60 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.22:1), $198.37 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.81:1) & $198.90/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.81:1) price levels.

DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF inched forward +0.09% last week, having the only positive week of the major index ETFs.

Their RSI is rebounding from oversold territory, but still sits at 38.74, while their MACD is beginning to curl over, while still remaining bearish.

Volumes were +33.94% above average compared to the year prior’s average volume (4,698,620 vs. 3,508,088), which is interesting as the highest volume session of the week was Friday’s risk-on into the weekend day.

Monday kicked the week off with the second highest volumes of the week, but on a bearish note, with a bearish engulfing pattern created that set the stage for the week’s consolidation range that occurred within it.

Tuesday attempted to open roughly midway through the real body of Monday’s session, but despite opening higher than Monday’s close there was not enough bullish momentum to keep price levels high & the session closed lower than it opened, while also forming a bearish harami pattern.

Wednesday the bearish sentiment got turned up, as the session opened just below Tuesday’s opening price, tested slightly higher, before declining to the lowest point of the week’s consolidation range & setting up a new support level at the $375.94/share price level.

Thursday attempted to recover, opening higher & testing higher, but ultimately ended in a bearish indecisive manner as the session closed lower with a spinning top candle.

Friday gave the most interesting candle of the week though, where the highest volume session resulted in an advance of +0.57%.

This could well have been a side effect of short covering as Friday was the primary expiration date for April 2024.

Based on the size of the upper shadow, there was appetite, even if only temporarily, for higher DIA prices, but market participants shied away from approaching the 10 day moving average.

This week will be important to see how strong the resistance of the 10 DMA holds up & whether or not it is able to push the price of DIA lower, and or if the consolidation range continues & the price then becomes wedged in between the 10 & 50 DMAs.

This is especially true as their RSI is trending back towards the neutral level, which would leave it open again for DIA to be faced with more declines in the coming week(s).

Their Average True Range is still elevated, but has cooled off slightly following the consolidation range of last week where there was limited volatility.

In the event of onset volatility, the issue of one year support levels (or lack thereof) that has been raised multiple times over the past month(s) will become relevant again & something to keep an eye on.

DIA has support at the $378.75 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $375.94 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $359.57 (200 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $351.74/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.87:1), with resistance at the $381.54 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $387.53 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $387.66 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $398.61/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

The Week Ahead

Monday does not have any major economic data announcements scheduled.

Albertsons, AZZ, Bank of Hawaii, Truist Financial, Verizon Communications & Zions Bancorp all report earnings on Monday before the opening bell, with AGNC Investment, Alexandria RE, Brown & Brown, Cadence Bank, Cadence Design, Calix Networks, Cleveland-Cliffs, Crane, Equity Lifestyle Properties, Globe Life, HealthStream, Hexcel, Independant Bank Group, Medpace, Nucor, Packaging Corp of America, Pinnacle Financial Partners, SAP & Simpson Manufacturing scheduled to report earnings after the closing bell.

S&P Flash U.S. Services PMI & S&P Flash U.S. Manufacturing PMI data will be released Tuesday at 9:45 AM, followed by New Home Sales data at 10 am.

Tuesday morning’s before the bell earnings include Banc of California,  Danaher,  East West Bancorp,  First Bancorp,  First Commonwealth,  Fiserv,  Freeport-McMoRan,  GATX,  GE Aerospace,  General Motors,  Halliburton,  Herc Holdings,  Invesco,  JetBlue Airways,  Kimberly-Clark,  Lockheed Martin,  MSCI,  NextEra Energy,  NextEra Energy Partners,  Old National Bancorp,  Pentair,  PepsiCo,  Philip Morris International,  Polaris Industries,  PulteGroup,  Quest Diagnostics,  RTX,  Ryder System,  Sherwin-Williams,  Spotify,  United Parcel Service,  W.R. Berkley,  Webster Financial & Xerox, with Tesla, Baker Hughes,  Canadian National Railway,  Chubb,  CoStar Group,  Enphase Energy,  EQT Corp.,  Equity Residential,  Hawaiian Holdings,  IDEX Corp,  Matador Resources,  Mattel,  Range Resources,  Seagate Technology,  Steel Dynamics,  Stride, Texas Instruments, Trustmark, Veritex Holdings, Vicor, Visa, WesBanco & Zurn Elkay Water Solutions all reporting after the closing bell. 

Wednesday brings us Durable-Goods Orders & Durable-Goods Minus Transportation data at 8:30 am.

Amphenol, AT&T, Avery Dennison, Biogen, Boeing, BOK Financial, Boston Scientific, Bunge, CME Group, Constellium, Entergy, Evercore, Fortive, General Dynamics, Group 1 Auto, Hasbro, Healthcare Services Group, Helen of Troy, Hilton, Humana, Interpublic, Lennox International, Masco, Mr. Cooper Group, Navient, New Oriental Education & Technology, Norfolk Southern, Old Dominion Freight Line, Otis Worldwide, Owens Corning, Pacific Premier, Silicon Labs, Synchrony Financial, TE Connectivity, Teledyne Technologies, Thermo Fisher Scientific, Travel + Leisure Co, Vertiv Holdings, Virtu Financial, Wabash National & Watsco are scheduled to report earnings Wednesday morning, followed by Meta Platforms, Align Technology, Antero Midstream, Antero Resources, BioMarin Pharmaceutical, Century Communities, ChampionX, Chemed, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Churchill Downs, Community Health, Core Labs, Encompass Health, Ethan Allen, First American Financial, Ford Motor, Graco, International Business Machines, ICON, Impinj, Kaiser Aluminum, Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings, Lam Research, Landstar System, MaxLinear, Meritage Homes, Moelis, Molina Healthcare, Nabors Industries, Oceaneering International, O’Reilly Automotive, Pegasystems, Plexus, Prosperity Bancshares, QuantumScape, Raymond James, Rollins, Sallie Mae, ServiceNow, Sleep Number, Teradyne, Tyler Technologies, United Rentals, Universal Health Services, Viking Therapeutics, Waste Management, Western Union, Whirlpool & Wyndham Hotels & Resorts after the session’s close.

Thursday kicks off with GDP, Initial Jobless Claims, Advanced U.S. Trade Balance in Goods, Advanced Retail Inventories & Advanced Wholesale Inventories data at 8:30 am & Pending Home Sales at 10 am.

A.O. Smith, ADT, Allegion, Altria, American Airlines, Applied Industrial, Arch Resources, Asbury Automotive, AstraZeneca, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Brunswick, California Water, Carrier Global, Caterpillar, CBIZ, Check Point Software, CMS Energy, CNX Resources, Comcast, Cullen/Frost, Dover, Dow, DTE Energy, Expro Group, FTI Consulting, Grainger, Harley-Davidson, Hertz Global, Hess, Honeywell, IMAX, Insteel Industries, Integer Holdings, International Paper, Keurig Dr Pepper, Kirby, Laboratory Corp of America, Lakeland Financial, Lazard, Merck, Mobileye Global, Nasdaq, Newmont, Northrop Grumman, Oshkosh, PG&E, Pool, Reliance, Royal Caribbean, S&P Global, SAGE Therapeutics, Sanofi, Sonic Automotive, Southside Banc, Southwest Air, STMicroelectronics, TechnipFMC, Textron, Tractor Supply Company, Tradeweb Markets, TransUnion, TRI Pointe Homes, Union Pacific, Valero Energy, Visteon, West Pharmaceutical Services, WEX, Willis Towers Watson, WNS & Xcel Energy will all report earnings before the opening bell on Thursday, followed by Microsoft, AllianceBernstein, Alphabet, AppFolio, AptarGroup, Arthur J. Gallagher, Atlassian, AvalonBay, Boston Beer Co, Boyd Gaming, Capital One, Carlisle Cos, Casella Waste, Cincinnati Financial, Columbia Sportswear, CubeSmart, DexCom, Eastman Chemical, Edwards Lifesciences, Exponent, Fair Isaac, Federated Hermes, First Financial Bancorp, FirstEnergy, Gaming and Leisure Properties, Gilead Sciences, Hartford Financial, Healthpeak Properties, Hub Group, Intel, Juniper Networks, KLA, L3Harris, Mohawk, NerdWallet, Olin, Phillips Edison & Company, Principal Financial Group, PTC Therapeutics, ResMed, Robert Half, Roku, Skechers USA, SkyWest, Snap, SPS Commerce, Teladoc, Terex, T-Mobile US, VeriSign, Western Digital, Weyerhaeuser & WSFS Financial after the session’s close.

Personal Income (Nominal), Personal Spending (Nominal), PCE Index, PCE (Year-over-Year), Core PCE Index & Core PCE (Year-over-Year) are all released Friday morning at 8:30 am, followed by Consumer Sentiment (final) data at 10 am.

Friday morning AbbVie, Aon, Autoliv, AutoNation, Ball Corp, Barnes Group, Centene, Charter Communications, Chevron, Colgate-Palmolive, Exxon Mobil, First Hawaiian, Gentex, HCA, LyondellBasell, Newell Brands, Piper Sandler, Roper, Saia, T. Rowe Price, TriNet Group, U.S. Silica & WisdomTree are all scheduled to report earnings before the opening bell.

See you back here next week!

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM OR DIA AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***