Author: OptimizedValue

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF gained +4.75% last week, while the VIX closed the week at 14.94, indicating an implied one day move of +/-0.94% & an implied one month move of +/-4.32% for the S&P 500.

Their RSI is trending into overbought territory in the wake of last week’s performance & currently sits just below it at 69.23, while their MACD crossed over bullishly on Thursday morning.

Volumes were still extremely light though, coming in -21.85% below the prior year’s average (47,910,000 vs. 61,308,656), which as we’ve highlighted in prior weeks’ notes is down drastically from even just seven month’s ago’s prior year’s average volume.

While there was some enthusiasm as a result of the US Presidential election & the FOMC Interest Rate decision the participation rate is still low following mid-April.

Last week opened on a note of uncertainty, as the session’s candle stayed within the range of the previous Thursday’s candle & the support of the 50 day moving average held up, although volumes were light.

Tuesday the low volume continued, but the session resulted in an advance that closed in line with the resistance of the 10 day moving average as folks anxiously awaited the results of the US election.

Wednesday saw enthusiasm rush through the markets, as the highest volume of the week led to a 2.5% gap up for SPY that opened well above the 10 day moving average’s resistance, but it came with a note of caution.

The day’s candle resulted in a hanging man, which has bearish implications & signals that there was a bit of downside appetite despite the day’s higher close.

The good times rolled on into the weekend when Thursday opened on another gap up session higher & Friday produced a +0.43% gain.

Friday’s candle offered another glimmer of caution as well, as while the upper shadow on the day’s candle is not long enough for the candle to be a shooting star, the day’s open & close were concentrated on the lower end of the candle.

Heading into the new week it will be interesting to see if there is enough momentum to continue SPY’s climb higher, or if there will be a cool off period.

Their MACD suggests that there may still be some fuel in the tank to the upside, but their RSI is nearing the overbought level, which is something investors should be mindful of in the days to come.

Another key area of interest will be how price behaves in regards to the window that was created by Wednesday’s gap up.

Due to the fact that we’re near all-time highs there is not enough volume sentiment data to assess the strength of the nearby support levels for SPY, as the $586.12 & 10 day moving average at $581.36 both fall within the window.

In the event it begins to fill then the strength of the 50 DMA’s support will be something else to keep an eye on to see if it can provide stable enough footing for SPY to consolidate & broaden.

SPY has support at the $586.12 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $581.36 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $570.82 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $567.89/share (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels, with resistance at the $599.64/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF that tracks the NASDAQ 100 climbed +5.48% last week, as investors were eager to get into the tech focused index.

Their RSI has flattened out after advancing towards the overbought level & currently sits at 67.6, while their MACD crossed over bullishly on Thursday.

Volumes were -25.25% below the previous year’s average volume (29,298,000 vs. 39,196,719), indicating that there is still a severe lack of participation much like SPY.

SPY & QQQ have both benefitted dramatically from the AI/Data Center/Semiconductor trades of the past couple of years & it now appears as though investors are pivoting away in favor of the small cap names in IWM & the blue chip index of DIA.

Accordingly, QQQ’s week went very similar to SPY’s, starting off on an uncertain note Monday when the session resulted in a slight decline & a high wave spinning top candle that formed a bearish harami pattern with the day prior’s candle on low volume.

The next day opened in a gap up & ran up to test the resistance of the 10 day moving average, which was briefly broken but was unable to close above it.

Wednesday opened on a large gap up & the session continued higher, setting a new all-time high & closing above the $505/share price level on the highest volume of the week as investors were excited about the results of the election.

Thursday followed suit with another gap up day & all-time high as market participants were still pleased by Wednesday’s news.

Friday the week wound down on another high note, but the day’s candle did flash signal for caution ahead.

Friday’s candle opened lower than Thursday’s close but was able to push slightly higher, adding +0.12% for the day & setting a new all-time high, but it appears that the $514.92/share level is where investors lost enthusiasm & may signal the top in the near-term.

Entering this week it will be interesting to see if there are some profits taken which would push prices down to begin filling in the gaps of last week.

QQQ has more local support than SPY did that may help keep prices propped up & from declining too low below the window, but that will be heavily dependent on how much volume we see on declining days.

The $502.81 & $501.35/share points will be interesting to follow, as they were only broken through on account of gaps, which could make for a false breakout based on the low volume levels.

Any decline will be worth keeping an eye on as well to see if the 10 & 50 DMAs hold up, especially now that the 200 DMA sits just -7.64% below the 10 DMA & -5.16% below the 50 DMA.

Prices tested against the 200 DMA in August & were able to rebound & climb higher, but the appetite to dip below it has already been shown once in the past year & can’t be ruled out again.

QQQ has support at the $502.81 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.6:0*), $501.35 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.6:0*), $497.47 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.4:0*) & $493.70/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.7:0*) price levels, with resistance at the $514.92/share (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF advanced +8.74% last week, as market participants flocked into small cap names in droves.

Their RSI has also flattened out, but in overbought territory & sits at 72.78, while their MACD crossed over bullishly on Wednesday.

Volumes were +9.69% above the previous year’s average levels (36,796,000 vs. 33,544,150), as investors were eager to get into small cap names following the US election & FOMC Interest Rate decision.

IWM’s week began on an interesting note, opening lower than Friday’s close, testing to below the support of the 50 DMA before breaking out upwards & crossing the resistance of the 10 DMA briefly before closing in-line with it.

Tuesday opened slightly lower before taking off running through the resistance of the 10 DMA & closing firmly above it.

IWM had a phenomenal Wednesday which accounted for +5.8% of the week’s gains as IWM gapped up, tested down to near the $232.50/share level before roaring back on high volume to close the session higher.

It should be noted that the day resulted in a hanging man candle which carries bearish implications with it, as despite the day’s gain there showed to be plenty of appetite for prices to head to the downside as well.

Despite most of it likely coming from profit taking after the gap, it is still something to consider moving forward, particularly if IWM is unable to continue higher as it will then give a rough idea as to the near-term range it may trade in.

Thursday flashed more warning signs for IWM though, as the session opened lower, tested higher to hit a new all-time high, before collapsing down to near the $235/share mark & settling down for the day.

While Friday’s +0.74% gain created a bullish engulfing candle, the volume sentiment behind it was severely lackluster & does not show much strength & conviction behind the move.

This coming week will be important to track the direction of volume to assess whether or not the current island that was set up last week will be sustainable & if not, how far the declines may be.

The $227-227.85/share level will be the first line of defense for IWM in terms of support, unless the 10 DMA moves higher in the meantime before those levels are tested.

In the event of a breakdown, IWM has many more local support levels than SPY or QQQ due to the rangebound oscillations it advances in vs. the latter two indexes more steep ascents & rapid growth.

IWM has support at the $227.85 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.6:0*), $227.17 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.6:0*), $225.87 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.6:0*) & $225.84/share (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.6:0*) price levels, with resistance at the $238.49/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF jumped +4.68% last week, as investors wanted exposure to the blue chip index following the week in news.

Their RSI is trending towards overbought levels & is currently at 68.36, while their MACD crossed over bullishly on Thursday.

Volumes were +31.68% above the previous year’s average (4,554,000 vs. 3,458,379), as investors showed that they clearly were seeking the protection of the blue chip names while at all-time highs.

Monday opened the week up the same as SPY & QQQ with a declining day where DIA opened lower, briefly tested higher before plunging through its 50 DMA’s support & recovered to close just below it.

Volumes were weak, a trend that continued into Tuesday when the session opened higher & powered above both the 50 & 10 DMA’s resistance levels to close above each, but again, on weak volume.

Wednesday saw a +3.5% advance on the heaviest volume of the week as DIA opened on a gap up & little profit taking took place based on the size of the lower shadow of the session’s candle.

Thursday’s price action began to show some doubt in the strength of the new all-time high set on Wednesday, as though the session advanced on solid volume, it closed lower than it opened & had a very narrow range (between a spinning top & a doji, but not entirely one or the other) between the day’s open & close.

This indicates that there was enough fuel to keep active participation going, but that there was not much appetite to take things higher & that market participants felt like they were at equilibrium.

Friday the gains continued with DIA advancing +0.62% on the day on the second highest volume of the week, but the size of the upper shadow on the day’s candle is cause for concern.

Bears clearly took the reigns back at $441.70 & forced the price back down to $440.11 & following the message of the prior day’s candle it appears that investors might be nearing the end of their rope on the near-term upside for DIA.

Much like the prior three index ETFs, this week all eyes will be on the window created Wednesday & whether or not it gets filled in the near-term.

Whether the above average volume continues for DIA will also be something to be aware of this coming week, as should it begin to falter there will likely be some risk-off movements by market participants that would force a test of the support of the 10 & possibly 50 DMAs.

Otherwise, in the event of decline the $426-426.50 level will be a zone to keep an eye on for support, as there is currently not much volume data about these price levels to gauge historic sentiment yet.

DIA has support at the $443.20 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $426.15 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $426.05 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $421.09/share (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels, with resistance at the $441.70/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

The Week Ahead

Monday is Veteran’s Day & the bond market will be closed.

Aramark & Monday.com report earnings on Monday morning before the opening bell, followed by Archrock, Assured Guaranty, James River Group, Kyverna Therapuetics, Luminar Technologies, Nevro, Talos Energy & Zeta Global after the session’s close.

Tuesday brings us NFIB Optimism Index data at 6am.

Home Depot kicks off Tuesday morning’s earnings calls, along with Alight, Alumis, AstraZeneca, Avadel Pharmaceuticals, Camtek, Endava, EVgo Inc., First Advantage, Genius Sports, Hertz Global, Hudbay Minerals, HUYA, IAC Inc., IHS Holding Limited, International Game Technology, Legend Biotech, Live Nation, Mirum Pharmaceuticals, Mosaic, Neumora Therapeutics, Northwest Natural, Novavax, On Holding, Pactiv Evergreen, Pagaya, Piedmont Lithium, Plug Power, Repligen, Roivant Sciences, Scholar Rock, Schrodinger, Sea Limited, Shift4 Payments, Shoals Technologies, Smith Douglas Homes, Sphere Entertainment, SpringWorks Therapeutics, Sunstone Hotel, Surgery Partners, Sylvamo, Target Hospitality, Tencent Music, TreeHouse Foods, Triumph Group & Tyson Foods, followed by Amdocs, American Healthcare REIT, Azenta, CAE, Cannae Holdings, CAVA Group, Chegg, Crinetics Pharmaceuticals, DHT, EverCommerce, Grab, Hudson Pacific Properties, ICU Medical, Instacart, Integral Ad Science, Light & Wonder, MARA Holdings, Natera, NCR Atleos, NeuroPace, Occidental Petroleum, OUTFRONT Media, Paragon 28, Paymentus, Perdoceo Education, Progyny, Prothena, PubMatic, Rackspace Technology, Repay Holdings, Rocket Lab USA, Seadrill Ltd, Skyworks Solutions, SoundHound AI, Spotify, Suncor Energy, TechTarget, Topgolf Callaway Brands, Xenon Pharmaceuticals & ZoomInfo after the closing bell.

Consumer Price Index, CPI Year-over-Year, Core CPI & Core CPI Year-over-Year data is all due for release Wednesday at 8:30 am, followed by the Monthly U.S. Federal Budget data at 2pm.

Wednesday morning’s earnings reports include Advanced Flower Capital, Arcos Dorados, CG Oncology, Curbline Properties, CyberArk Software, Dole, Enlight Renewable Energy, Griffon, Inhibrx Biosciences, James Hardie, Loar Holdings, Paysafe, Riskified, Shopify, Stratasys, Tower Semiconductor & UBS, with Cisco Systems, Beazer Homes, BrightView, Digi International, dLocal, Helmerich & Payne, Hillenbrand, Ibotta, J&J Snack Foods, Kulicke & Soffa, Nuvei, PACS Group, Sonos & Tetra Tech reporting after the closing bell.

Thursday brings us Initial Jobless Claims, Producer Price Index, PPI Year-over-Year, Core PPI & Core PPI Year-over-Year data at 8:30 am.

Walt Disney, Advance Auto Parts, Bilibili, JD.com, NetEase, NICE, Nomad Foods, Sally Beauty, Sally Beauty & ZEEKR Intelligent Technology Holding are all due to report earnings on Thursday morning before Applied Materials, ESCO Technologies, Globant, Mitek Systems & Post report after the session’s close.

Import Price Index, Import Price Index minus Fuel, Empire State Manufacturing Survey, U.S. Retail Sales & Retail Sales minus Autos data are all scheduled for release on Friday at 8:30 am, followed by Industrial Production, & Capacity Utilization data at 9:15 am & Business Inventories data at 10 am.

Friday morning’s major earnings call is Alibaba Group Holding.

See you back here next week!

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM OR DIA AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF dipped -0.95% this week, while the VIX closed at 20.33, indicating an implied one day move of +/-1.28% & an implied one month move of +/-5.88% for the S&P 500.

Their RSI has flattened out just above the neutral 50 level & sits at 56.86, while their MACD crossed over bearishly on Wednesday.

Volumes were -35.77% below the previous year’s average (40,436,000 vs. 62,957,183), as investors continue to sit on edge waiting to see what mega cap tech earnings & PCE/inflation data tell us this week.

Monday the week began on a sour note, as the session’s candle resulted in a dragonfly doji that tested the support of the 10 day moving average.

While support held up, volumes were even lower than last week’s, indicating that there was still a good deal of fear & uncertainty about SPY’s outlook for the week.

This continued into Tuesday, where on the lowest volume of the week SPY opened in line with the prior day’s close, only to continue lower throughout the day & settle rested atop the support of the 10 DMA.

Wednesday the 10 DMA’s support broke down, as the session opened below it, tested briefly above it only to fall & close lower, with a large lower shadow signaling that there was still more downside appetite among market participants, but that the bulls had temporarily forced a stronger close.

Thursday saw a glimmer of optimism, as another dragonfly doji candle occurred while SPY tried to claw back some of Wednesday’s losses, but note that the volume was extremely weak on Thursday, which does not indicate that there was much bullish sentiment behind they day’s move.

Thursday’s candle could be considered a bullish harami, but based on the low volume sentiment behind the session & the lower close than open it should be viewed bearishly.

One area of hope from Thursday’s session was that the low of the day was not as low as Wednesday’s, but this is nothing to hitch your wagon to just yet.

Friday managed to open higher, but still below the 10 DMA’s resistance, break temporarily above the resistance level, before ultimately closing near the low of they day -0.03% on the second highest volume of the week.

This “risk-off” into the weekend did not set the stage for an enthusiastic new week & indicates that there is still a bit of skepticism among market participants about the current strength of the S&P 500.

As we look to the coming week the 10 day moving average’s relationship to SPY’s share price remains one of the most important areas to keep an eye on this week.

Support gave out & resistance held strong in the latter half of the week, which will remain important in determining the direction SPY goes in heading into the latter portion of the week.

If the price stays below the 10 DMA’s resistance for too long market participants will become exhausted & impatient likely leading to some selling pressure forcing SPY’s price lower.

This is especially true if there is not a meaningful increase in volume, as the current tumbleweed low levels are unsustainable in the long run if SPY’s valuation is to remain justified near all-time highs.

The direction that volume increases in & the magnitude of the increase will also remain important to watch, as it will shed light into which way market participants are likely to continue moving in once a trend has been established.

Watching how investors are participating will help you to anticipate which direction things will move in in the short-to-medium term.

Something else of note for this week is that now that SPY’s price is below the 10 DMA, the first support level (S1) is their 50 DMA, which is continuing to rise.

Looking at their past year’s chart (above) you can see that more often than not in the past year when the price has gone between these two moving averages there has often been declines, many of which have been able to break down & test the 50 DMA’s support (and two in particular that broke down through it entirely).

This leads to something else that has begun emerging from SPY’s chart over the past week, the appearance of a potential bearish head & shoulders set up forming.

Look back to 9/19/2024’s gap up session & note that the left shoulder forming, with the recent all-time high as the head & the right shoulder yet to form.

Should the moving averages observation above hold true that will begin the formation of the right hand shoulder over a 5-6 week period (assuming a more rapid decline doesn’t take place instead).

The low volume of the past couple of weeks has made this become even more of a possibility as there is no fuel in SPYs tank & looking at their MACD & RSIs it begins to look even more strongly a possibility.

SPY has support at the $566.02 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $563.43 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 10:1), $562.48 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 10:1) & $553.17/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.92:1) price levels, with resistance at the $581.66 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $586.12/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF advanced +0.17% last week, faring the best of the major four index ETFs.

Their RSI is trending towards the overbought level of 70 & currently sits at 58.85, while their MACD crossed over bearishly last week.

Volumes were -21.75% below the previous year’s average level (31,432,000 vs. 40,167,659), which as noted in last week’s market review note is severely low in relation to the volumes that QQQ (and the other index ETFs sans-IWM) had previously enjoyed in years past.

QQQ had a different week from SPY, but still did not have a strong performance as investors have begun to sour on the two indexes in favor of IWM & DIA recently.

QQQ opened the week on a quite uncertain note, where mediocre volume resulted in a bullish engulfing candle that resulted in a spinning top.

They briefly broke down through the 10 day moving average’s support during the day, but managed to power higher to close the day higher.

The weak volume & temporary support break down are cause for concern though, which QQQ showed on Tuesday.

While at first glance Tuesday was another bullish engulfing candle & it did not close with the same “indecision” surrounding it that Monday’s spinning top indicated, it should be noted that the volume was weak & that the session opened below the resistance of the 10 DMA.

The fact that the support level was feeble enough to be broken through before the market opened is not indicative of strength & conviction behind QQQ, which was proven with Wednesday’s declining session.

While prices were able to briefly break above the 10 DMA’s resistance, they spent most of the session below it & Wednesday’s volume was the strongest of the week, which is telling about the lack of investor confidence in QQQ as there has not been any major run up to trim profits from & volume hadn’t been that high since 10/1/2024 (also declining volume).

The session’s lower shadow also signals that there was more downside appetite.

Thursday showed the weakest volume of the week for QQQ on a session that closed in a dragonfly doji, indicating indecision, particularly as the 10 DMA was not crossed.

It created a harami cross pattern with Wednesday’s session, which led to Friday’s gap up open that skipped right over the 10 DMA’s resistance.

Friday’s move came on the second highest volume of the week, indicating that there was some support behind it from market participants, however it closed as a gravestone doji, indicating that the bears were still out in full force & likely signaling that there was some intra-day profit taking after the gap up, based on the height of the upper shadow.

QQQ’s week ahead will also be heavily dependent on how the price is in relation to their 10 DMA, which closed Friday as their second level of support (S2).

In the event that prices make a break lower & get pinned between the 10 & 50 DMAs there is additional local support to help prop prices up, but the curve of the 10 DMA should be cause for concern.

Once the 10 DMA curls over as much as it has recently it has led to lower prices in the coming sessions that come in the form of steeper declines vs. consolidation.

When referencing the volume sentiment by price level table below you’ll notice that this may well lead to a 5%+ decline based on the Buyer:Seller sentiment at these levels over the past ~2 years.

While this week’s earnings calls may be enough of a catalyst to forge higher for QQQ, they too are showing signs of a bearish head & shoulders pattern emerging over a similar time period as SPY’s.

Friday’s high would become the head (assuming nothing in the days to come is higher than it), giving it 4-6 weeks until the right shoulder is formed (in the event that it does not decline more rapidly).

In the event of an earnings catalyst this week, it will be imperative to see how the $502.81 resistance level holds up, as in the event that it is broken through the landscape for QQQ will change (pending on how their oscillators react to the jump).

While QQQ has shown higher peaks & higher troughs since the declines of July, the lackluster participation rate being signaled by their current volume levels raises cause for concern still moving into the week ahead & like SPY, watching their the direction & fluctuations that their volume goes in will lend tells into where they head next.

QQQ has support at the $493.70 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.7:0*), $493.24 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.7:0*), $484.86 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.6:0*) & $480.15/share (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.4:1) price levels, with resistance at $493.70/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.7:0*) price levels.

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF declined -3% last week, as investors shunned the small cap heavy index.

Their RSI recently crossed below the neutral mark of 50 & sits currently at 47.86, while their MACD has been bearish since Wednesday.

Volumes were -38.02% below the prior years average (21,100,000 vs. 34,043,929), which is peculiar, given that the Russell has fared the best of the major four indexes in terms of volume since 4/19/2024 & is something to consider in any analysis of the small cap index.

After rounding the prior week out with a couple of bad sessions the pain continued into the new week for IWM, as the session opened lower & proceeded to decline -1.74% & meeting the support of the 10 day moving average (briefly breaking down below it) on some of the highest volume of the week.

While some may attribute this to profit taking, it seems a bit lopsided compared to the volumes of the week & a half prior’s run up & should be viewed with a skeptical eye.

Tuesday the ship continued to sink, as the session opened on a gap down beneath the 10 day moving average’s support & closed as a hanging man candle (bearish).

Volume was noticeably weaker than the previous day’s, however the emphasis here should be placed on the fact that the session opened up with all faith in the 10 DMAs support level obliterated.

Wednesday followed suit, opening on a gap down again & despite showing some bulls had entered the chat (upper shadow) the bears were still in control, forcing the session to almost test the support of the 50 day moving average beneath it.

Bulls were able to rush in & force the close to be in the top ~33% of the day’s range though, and there was a lot of shares trading hands compared to most of the rest of October based on their “high” volume.

The dim outlook continued into Thursday, when the session opened higher, tested higher & then proceeded to retrace over 50% of the prior day’s range & ultimately closed below its opening price, indicating weakness & poor spirits among market participants given the low volume of the day.

Friday the bandaid was ton off, as a high volume for the week session resulted in a bearish engulfing candle that sat almost perfectly between the resistance of the 10 DMA & support of the 50 DMA.

Every part of Friday’s candle eclipsed Thursday’s, leading to the oscillator readings mentioned above & the curling over of their 10 day moving average’s resistance which looks set to apply downward pressure on IWM’s price.

While we’ve noted in past weeks that IWM’s volume has not taken as big of a hit as the other major three index ETFs, volume & the direction it occurs in will still be very telling about the next direction IWM takes in the coming weeks & should be paid close attention to.

Much like SPY & QQQ, the relationship between price & the 10 & 50 day moving averages will be important to note as well, especially as they’re both also signaling a potential near-term head & shoulders pattern whose left shoulder formed in mid-September.

Another thing of note regarding IWM’s 50 DMA’s support is that should it break down, there are no other touch-points until $210.57/share & the 50 DMA is in s Seller dominated price block (3.3:1).

While the $208 support zone has been dominated by the Buyers 2:1 in recent history & the $210.57/share point is contained in this price block, it may not be the sturdiest of support & should be viewed with caution.

IWM has support at the $217.50 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 3.3:1), $210.57 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2:1), $208.58 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2:1) & $208.47/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2:1) price levels, with resistance at the $221.69 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.86:1), $222.57 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.86:1), $222.17 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.86:1) & $227.85/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.6:0*) price levels.

DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF fell -2.66% last week, as blue chip names were not in favor vs. the tech heavy NASDAQ.

Their RSI also just crossed through the neutral 50 mark & sits currently at 46.31, while their MACD has also been bearish since Wednesday.

Volumes were -22.17% below the previous year’s average (2,696,000 vs. 3,464,048), as investors are even skittish on buying into the blue chip index so close to all-time highs.

The week began & ended on a weak note for DIA following a new all-time high hit on Friday & a pair or dragonfly doji candles closing out the week before.

Monday’s bearish engulfing candle set the stage for a week of pain for DIA, as it started the week off with a test of the support of the 10 day moving average.

While it didn’t break down the support level on Monday, Tuesday gapped lower on the open before turning upwards & closing near in-line with the 10 DMA’s resistance, after briefly breaking through it (upper shadow).

Wednesday the pain got worse, when the week’s highest volume session began with a gap down that ultimately tested -0.96% lower than its opening price during the session, despite bulls managing to step in & for the close to be about midway between the day’s range.

Thursday the sad song continued for DIA, as it opened on a gap lower & closed as a hanging man candle (bearish).

Friday the trend remained alive & well, as the session declined -0.62% on a bearish engulfing candle, setting this week up for more bearish performance from the looks of things.

DIA also has the same head & shoulders pattern appearing from mid-September as SPY, QQQ & IWM have & their oscillators & moving averages are also beginning to show this forming.

Keep an eye on their volume in the coming weeks, particularly which direction it appears to be moving in as that will lead prices.

Like the three aforementioned ETFs, the coming week will also be marked by where DIA’s price winds up in relation to their 10 & 50 DMAs, which as you can see looking at their chart will likely be what causes the H&S pattern to form based on the current layout.

DIA has support at the $418.12 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.2:0*), $417.66 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.2:0*), $415.17 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.8:0*) & $411.96/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.4:1) price levels, with resistance at the $426.05 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $428.24 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $433.20/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

The Week Ahead

Monday there are no major U.S. Economic Data Reports or Fed Speakers.

Acadia Realty Trust, Bank of Hawaii, CenterPoint Energy, Hope Bancorp, ON Semiconductor, PROCEPT BioRobotics & SJW all report earnings before Monday’s opening bell, followed by Agilysys, Amkor, Atlas Energy Solutions, Boot Barn Holdings, Brixmor Property, Brown & Brown, Cadence Design, Calix Networks, Camping World, Capital Southwest, CCC Intelligent Solutions, COPT Defense Properties, Crane, CVR Energy, Douglas Dynamics, Element Solutions, Encompass Health, F5 Networks, Flowserve, Ford Motor, Harmonic, Inari, Kforce, Kilroy Realty, Leggett & Platt, LTC Properties, NorthWestern, PotlatchDeltic, Rambus, Regency Centers, Safehold, SBA Communications, Skyline Champion, TransMedics Group, Trex, UFP Industries, Ultra Clean Holdings, V.F. Corp, Waste Management & Welltower after the session’s close.

S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index (20 Cities) data comes out at 9 am on Tuesday, followed by Consumer Confidence & Job Openings Data at 10 am.

Tuesday kicks off with earnings from American Tower, Armstrong World Industries, Asbury Automotive, ATI Inc., CBIZ, CECO Environmental, Check Point Software, Comcast, Commvault Systems, Corning, CTS Corp, D.R. Horton, DT Midstream, Eagle Materials, Ecolab, Enterprise Products, ESAB Corp., Franklin Electric, Frontier Group Holdings, Graphic Packaging, H&E Equipment, Harmony Biosciences, Hayward Holdings, HNI, Hubbell, Incyte, IPG Photonics, ITT, Janus International Group, JetBlue Airways, Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals, Leidos, Masco, McDonald’s, MSCI, Northwest Bancshares, PayPal Holdings, Pfizer, Phillips 66, PJT Partners, Royal Caribbean, Scorpio Tankers, Shutterstock, SoFi Technologies, Stanley Black & Decker, Sysco, Tenet Healthcare, Xerox & Zebra Technologies, with 10x Genomics, Adtalem Global Education, Advanced Micro Devices, Alignment Healthcare, Allison Transmission, Alphabet, American Homes 4 Rent, Artisan Partners Asset Management, BioMarin Pharmaceutical, BXP, Caesars Entertainment, Cheesecake Factory, Chemed, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Chubb, DaVita, Edison International, Electronic Arts, Enovix, EQT Corp., Essex Property, Exelixis, ExlService, Expand Energy, Extra Space Storage, First Commonwealth, First Solar, FirstEnergy, FMC Corp, Huron Consulting, IDEX Corp, Ingevity, Landstar System, Littelfuse, Meritage Homes, Mirion Technologies, Modine Manufacturing, Mondelez International, NerdWallet, O-I Glass, ONEOK, Park Hotels & Resorts, PROS Holdings, Provident Financial Services, Qorvo, Reddit, Republic Services, SAGE Therapeutics, Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Snap, STAG Industrial, Stryker, Udemy, UMB Financial Corp, Unisys, Unum Group, Varonis Systems, Visa, W.P. Carey, Werner Enterprises & Zurn Elkay Water Solutions scheduled to report after the closing bell.

Wednesday kicks off with ADP Employment data at 8:15 am, with GDP, Advanced U.S. Trade Balance in Goods, Advanced Retail Inventories & Advanced Wholesale Inventories data at 8:30 am.

AbbVie, AerCap, AFC Gamma, Allete, Ares Capital, Arvinas, Automatic Data Processing, Avanos Medical, Avnet, Axalta Coating Systems, Bausch + Lomb, Bausch Health, Biogen, Blackbaud, Brinker International, Bunge, Caterpillar, CDW, Chefs’ Warehouse, Clean Harbors, Clearway Energy, Columbus McKinnon, Curbline Properties, Dana, Eli Lilly, Exelon, Extreme Networks, Fiverr, Flex, Fortive, Garmin, Gates Industrial, GE HealthCare, Gentherm, Gibraltar Industries, GlaxoSmithKline, Global Payments, Group 1 Auto, Healthcare Realty, Hess, Hess Midstream Partners, Humana, Illinois Tool Works, IMAX, InMode, Intra-Cellular Therapies, JinkoSolar, Kirby, Kraft Heinz, Leonardo DRS, LivaNova, Martin Marietta, Materion, Monro Muffler, Navient, Neurocrine Biosciences, NiSource, NovoCure, Oil States, Omnicell, OneMain Holdings, OneSpaWorld, Option Care Health, Oshkosh, Otis Worldwide, Parsons, ProPetro, Reynolds Consumer Products, Shake Shack, Silgan Holdings, SiteOne Landscape Supply, Stepan, Terex, The Vita Coco Company, Tradeweb Markets, Trane, TTM Technologies, United Therapeutics, Verisk Analytics, Vulcan Materials, Wingstop, XPO & Zimmer Biomet are all scheduled to report earnings before Wednesday’s opening bell, followed by Meta Platforms, Acadia Healthcare, Advanced Energy, Aflac, Albany International, Alkami Technology, Allegiant Travel, Allstate, Alphatec, Altair Engineering, American Water Works, Amgen, Antero Midstream, Antero Resources, Arch Capital, Arcosa, AXIS Capital, Axos Financial, Beacon Roofing Supply, Benchmark Electronics, Bio-Rad Labs, Booking Holdings, C.H. Robinson, Cactus, Carvana, Casella Waste, CF Industries, Clorox, Cognex, Cognizant Technology Solutions, Coinbase Global, Columbia Sportswear, Compass Diversified, Comstock, Confluent, CONMED, Corcept Therapeutics, Credit Acceptance, Curtiss-Wright, Custom Truck One Source, DoorDash, eBay, Employers Holdings, Energy Recovery, Envista, EPR Properties, Equinix, Equity Residential, Ethan Allen, Etsy, Everest Group, Federal Realty, Floor & Decor, FormFactor, Four Corners Property Trust, FTAI Aviation, Gen Digital, GoDaddy, Green Brick Partners, Hanover Insurance, Herbalife Nutrition, Hercules Capital, Houlihan Lokey, Hub Group, Independence Realty Trust, Informatica, Invitation Homes, iRhythm, KLA Corporation, Lemonade, LPL Financial, Magnolia Oil & Gas, Manitowoc, Matson, MediaAlpha, Merit Medical, MetLife, MGM Resorts, Microsoft, MicroStrategy, Mid-America Apartment Communities, Mister Car Wash, Monolithic Power, Murphy USA, MYR Group, National Storage Affiliates, NETGEAR, New Mountain Finance, Nextracker, NV5 Global, Omega Health, Paramount Group, Paycom Software, Paylocity, Penumbra, Pilgrim’s Pride, PriceSmart, Procore Technologies, Prudential, Public Storage, Remitly Global, Riot Platforms, Robinhood Markets, Roku, Root, Inc., Rush Enterprises, Rush Street Interactive, Ryan Specialty Group, Silicon Motion, Sleep Number, Sprouts Farmers Market, SPX Technologies, STAAR Surgical, Starbucks, Stem, Sturm Ruger, Summit Materials, Sunnova Energy, Teekay Tankers, Teladoc, Tenable, Trupanion, Twilio, UDR, Universal Display, Ventas, Warrior Met Coal, Watts Water Technologies & WillScot Mobile Mini after the closing bell.

Personal Income, Personal Spending, PCE Index, PCE (Year-over-Year), Core PCE Index, Core PCE (Year-over-Year) & Initial Jobless Claims data are all released Thursday morning at 8:30 am, followed by Pending Home Sales data at 10 am.

Thursday morning’s earnings calls include 1-800-FLOWERS, Agios Pharmaceuticals, Allegro Microsystems, Alnylam Pharma, Altria, Alumis, Ametek, APi Group, Aptiv, Arrow Electronics, Avient, Ball Corp, Bandwidth, BCE Inc, Belden, BorgWarner, Bristol Myers Squibb, California Water Service, Canada Goose, Canadian Natural Resources, Cheniere Energy, Cinemark, CMS Energy, ConocoPhillips, Cullen/Frost, Donnelley Financial, Driven Brands, Dun & Bradstreet, Eaton, Ecovyst, EMCOR Group, Entergy, Enviri Corporation, Estee Lauder, Federal Signal, Ferrari, First Majestic Silver, Fresh Del Monte, Generac, Genesis Energy, Gildan Activewear, Grainger, Granite Construction, Green Plains, HF Sinclair, Huntington Ingalls, Hyatt Hotels, IdaCorp, IDEXX Labs, Inhibrx Biosciences, Insperity, International Paper, Intercontinental Exchange, InterDigital, IQVIA, Itron, Janus Henderson Group, Kellanova, Kimco Realty, Kontoor Brands, Kymera Therapeutics, Lancaster Colony, Laureate Education, Lazard, LendingTree, Li Auto, Lightspeed, Lincoln Electric, Lincoln National, Linde, Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Malibu Boats, Mastercard, Merck, MGP Ingredients, Mobileye Global, Norwegian Cruise Line, Open Text, Organon, Patrick Industries, PBF Energy, Peabody Energy, Peloton Interactive, PHINIA, Quanta Services, Radware, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Roblox, SharkNinja, SolarWinds, Southern, STMicroelectronics, SunCoke Energy, TC Energy, Teleflex, The Cigna Group, Trinity Industries, Uber Technologies, Uniti Group, Upbound Group, Utz Brands, Vontier, WEC Energy Group, Wendy’s, Willis Towers Watson, Xcel Energy & Xylem, with Amazon.com, Apple, ACCO Brands, Agnico-Eagle Mines, Alliant Energy, Amcor, Ardelyx, Asure Software, Atlassian, BJ Restaurants, Camden Property, CNO Financial, Cohu, Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Coterra Energy, CubeSmart, Customers Bancorp, Dorman Products, Eastman Chemical, El Pollo Loco, Fox Factory Holding, Grid Dynamics, Halozyme Therapeutics, ICF International, Ingersoll-Rand, Intel, Juniper Networks, Lemaitre Vascular, MasTec, Mercer International, Onto Innovation, Quaker Chemical, Reinsurance Group of America, Sabra Health Care REIT, Select Medical, SkyWest, SM Energy, Sonoco Products, Tennant, U.S. Steel, Verra Mobility, Viavi, VICI Properties & Vir Biotechnology reporting after the closing bell.

Friday morning brings us U.S. Employment Report, U.S. Unemployment Rate, U.S. Hourly Wages & Hourly Wages Year-over-Year data at 8:30 am, followed by S&P final U.S. Manufacturing PMI data at 9:45 am, Construction Spending & ISM Manufacturing data at 10 am & Auto Sales data.

Alpha Metallurgical Resources, ArcBest, Ares Management, BrightSpring Health Services, Cardinal Health, Cboe Global Markets, Chart Industries, Charter Communications, Chevron, Church & Dwight, DigitalBridge, Dominion Energy, Enbridge, Essent Group, Exxon Mobil, fuboTV, Imperial Oil, Interface, LyondellBasell, Magna, Moog, nVent Electric, Pediatrix Medical Group, PPL Corp, Protolabs, RBC Bearings, Simon Properties, T. Rowe Price, Telus, TXNM Energy, TXNM Energy & Wayfair are all scheduled to report earnings before Friday’s opening bell.

See you back here next week!

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM OR DIA AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***