Author: OptimizedValue

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF declined -0.26% last week in a week of steady decline for the S&P 500.

Their RSI is just below neutral at 46.57, but their MACD is in bearish decline.

Volumes were -6.86% below average last week compared to the average for the year prior (78,371,800 vs. 84,142,598) as investors waited to learn more from companies’ earnings reports while taking a breather after hitting a 52-week high a couple of weeks ago.

There were 3 spinning top candlesticks last week, signaling indecision by market participants & this week will be interesting to watch how the 10 & 50 day moving average create pressure on prices, with the 10 DMA applying downward pressure, while the 50 DMA continues to apply upward pressure on SPY’s price.

Another key area to watch in the coming weeks is SPY’s support levels, as aside from their 50 day moving average, the closest support level is a -4.68% decline away, making it important to have an idea as to how their price has behaved at various levels in recent history.

SPY has support at the $442.36 (50 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.47:1), $424.79 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.70:1), $415.18 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.57:1) & $408.33/share (200 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.10:1) price levels, with resistance at the $449.68 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.3:0*) & $459.44/share (52-Week High; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.09:1) price levels.

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF lost -1.56% last week, settling below their 50 day moving average by Friday’s close.

Their RSI is trending towards oversold & is currently at 41.33, with their MACD is bearish freefall.

Volumes were -5.57% below average last week compared to the year prior’s average (52,578,850 vs. 55,681,019), as market participants sought to take profits after the ascent of spring & early summer.

Monday’s hanging man candlestick set the tone for the rest of the week’s price range for QQQ, which preceded Tuesday’s hanging man candle.

The week ended on a spinning top candle that closed beneath the 10 & 50 day moving averages, meaning that investors are still not convinced that they need to be buying QQQ & that there is going to be further downside pressure being applied by the moving averages in the near-term.

Much like SPY, QQQ also has a bit of space between its current price & its next support level, with currently a -9.34% space with no support from their current price to the next level beneath it, which investors should be conscientious of.

QQQ has support at the $332.05 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 4:1), $314.92 (200 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.94:1), $312.77 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.94:1) & $308.88/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.32:1) price levels, with resistance at the $368.94 (50 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 9.33:1), $373.66 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2.9:0*) & $387.98/share (52-Week High; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.7:0*) price levels.

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF declined -1.64% last week, as small cap stocks fared the worst out of the major indexes.

Their RSI is trending downward & recently crossed below neutral to 46.48, with their MACD in bearish decline.

Last week’s volume was -14.33% lower than the average volume for the year prior (24,026,883 vs. 28,047,249), which shows hesitancy on the part of market participants & a lack of confidence in IWM.

Monday’s hanging man candlestick began the week’s decline, closing lower than it opened, but opening above Friday’s close.

IWM is going to have support coming from their 50 day moving average while the 10 day moving average is applying downwards pressure against their price in the coming week.

Their chart has less risk of price:support level distance than the other indexes as they have traded much more rangebound over the past year than SPY or QQQ.

IWM has support at the $189.12 (50 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.5:1), $187.48 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.17:1), $186.81 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.17:1) & $185.44/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.14:1) price levels, with resistance at the $194.10 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2.75:1), $197.98 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.57:1), $198.74 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.5:1) & $198.75/share (52-Week High; Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.5:1) price levels.

DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF was the sole index to advance last week, adding +0.67% for the week.

Their RSI is trending up towards overbought levels, as investors sought the safety of larger cap stocks & is currently at 57.71, but their MACD is bearish after the consolidation of the past 3-4 weeks.

Last week’s volume was -11.61% lower than the average volume for the year prior (3,216,900 vs. 3,639,508), signaling that investors are beginning to show signs of fatigue & are not as enthusiastic about adding risk to their portfolios at this time vs. in the past.

Last week’s candlesticks all traded in a relatively tight range, and the 10 day moving average is going to begin applying downward pressure to prices this week.

Like IWM, DIA has traded much more in ranges this past year compared to SPY & QQQ, so there will be support levels closer to the price level than for the first two ETFs in this article.

DIA has support at the $345.47 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.17:1), $344.77 (50 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.17:1), $343.68 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.32:1) & $340.82/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.32:1) price levels, with resistance at the $353.10 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.2:0*) & $356.70/share (52-Week High; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

Energy (ERX), Japan (DXJ), Emerging Market Dividend Stocks (EDIV) & U.S. Cash Cows (COWZ) Are All Bullishly Leading The Market

ERX, the Direxion Daily Energy Bull 2x Shares ETF has gained +29.08% over the past year, adding 58.01% since their 52-week low in September of 2022 (ex-distributions).

Their RSI is overbought currently at 73.5, with their MACD still advancing bullishly following the gap up during Wednesday’s session.

Last week’s trading volume was unusually light, coming in at -53.86% below average compared to the year prior (603,380 vs. 1,307,763), which shows reluctance on the part of investors & a more cautious attitude at this price level.

Last week’s chart kicked off with a spinning top, before Tuesday’s session tested the 200 day moving average to the downside & closed higher, before Wednesday’s gap up on a spinning top, followed Thursday by a doji, signaling that there is indeed caution on the part of investors currently.

With a 2.58% distribution yield, there is some cushion for long-term shareholders, however it would be wise to have a hedging strategy in place in the coming weeks for when ERX declines from profit taking after their recent growth.

ERX has support at the $66.45 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.05:1), $65.40 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.05:1), $64.53 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.04:1) & $64.47/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.04:1) price levels, with resistance at the $66.74 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.05:1), $69.03 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.2:1), $71.16 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1:0*) & $73.40/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.8:0*) price levels.

DXJ, the WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity Fund ETF has advanced +34.21% over the past year, climbing +37.78% since their 52-week low in September of 2022 (ex-distributions).

Their RSI is trending towards overbought conditions currently at 61.45 (70 = overbought), with their MACD looking relatively flat & like it may bearishly crossover in the coming days.

Last week’s volume was -5.87% below average compared to the year prior (420,240 vs. 446,451), following the days of heavier than average volume of the past two weeks as the price sits near its 52-week high.

Tuesday & Wednesday featured some profit taking by investors, with Thursday’s session resulting in a gap up off of their 10 day moving average.

It is worth noting that Wednesday’s session resulted in a doji, Thursday’s session resulted in a spinning top & Friday’s session also closed as a doji, signaling a high degree of uncertainty & caution among market participants.

DXJ’s 10 day moving average will be a key area to keep an eye on in the coming week to see how it supports the current price levels, as you can begin to see it is rolling over bearishly.

DXJ offers a 3.06% distribution yield for long-term holders which provides some cushion against losses, however a hedging strategy in the near-term would be a wise idea as they sit near their 52-week highs while waiting to see how their support levels hold up.

They have support at the $84.23 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.2:0*), $84.09 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.2:0*), $82.20 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2:1) & $82.12/share (50 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2:1) price levels, with resistance at the $85.56 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $85.60/share (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

EDIV, the SPDR S&P Emerging Market Dividend ETF has notched +19.82% gains over the past year, adding +38.43% from their 52-week low in November of 2022 (ex-distributions).

Their RSI is trending lower & recently just passed through the neutral level after the declines of the past two weeks (currently 46.83), with their MACD in bearish decline.

Volume was +52.39% above average this past week compared to the year prior (50,500 vs. 33,138) as investors were eager to enter back in after some profit taking activity took place near their 52-week high.

Their outlook also looks uncertain in the near-term however, with Monday & Wednesday of last week resulting in hanging man candlesticks, Tuesday being a doji & Thursday & Friday being declining days.

They pay a 3.98% distribution yield for long-term holders, which will provide some cushion against losses, but investors should remain vigilant in the coming week, especially as the 10 & 50 day moving averages move in on either side of the current share price.

EDIV has support at the $29.39 (50 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.04:1), $29.28 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.04:1), $29.07 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.04:1) & $28.19/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.18:1) price levels, with resistance overhead at the $30.26 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.47:1) & $32.08/share (52 Week High; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.13:1) price levels.

COWZ, the Pacer U.S. Cash Cows 100 ETF has risen +9.71% over the past year, advancing 29.29% from their 52-week low in September of 2022 (ex-distributions).

Their RSI is currently overbought at 72.56 after a strong July, with their MACD bearish but relatively flat.

Last week’s volume was -8.76% below average compared to the year prior (1,595,160 vs. 1,748,296), as investors have become nervous now that the price level is near their 52-week high.

Wednesday’s session resulted in a gravestone doji, which sends a foreboding message into the coming weeks when combined with Thursday’s candle to create a bearish engulfing pattern, which tends to signal further declines are on the horizon.

COWZ pays a 1.83% distribution yield to long-term holders, which does not provide much protection against a downside movement, making it important to have a hedging strategy or to take some profits now while they are at these high levels.

They have support at the $51.08 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $50.26 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.67:1), $49.09 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.21:1) & $48.86/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.12:1) price levels, with resistance at the $52.09/share (52-Week High; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0;0*) price level.

20+ Year Treasuries (UBT), Clean Energy (ACES), China (CNYA) & Gold Miners (GDX) Are All Bearishly Lagging The Market

UBT, the ProShares Ultra 20+ Year Treasury ETF has fallen -33.65% over the past year, losing -36.16% from their 52-week high in August of 2022, but has inched forward +3.77% from their 52-week low in October of 2022 (ex-distributions).

Their RSI is trending towards oversold, with their MACD in bearish decline following the losses they began incurring in mid-July.

Last week’s volumes were -69.35% below average compared to the year prior (33,100 vs. 108,005), as there was limited enthusiasm amongst investors as their share price began to approach their 52-week low.

While Friday’s session ended in an inverted hammer candlestick which is often a signal of an impending bullish reversal, when paired with the low volume it would be best to wait & see how their current support levels & resistance levels hold up before entering into a position.

Pair that with the 2.07% distribution yield that they offer to long-term holders & there is limited upside to entering into a new position here at these levels until they establish a more steady footing.

UBT has support at the $21.15 (Volume Sentiment: Even, 1:1), $21.00 (Volume Sentiment: Even, 1:1) & $20.36/share (52-Week Low; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels, with resistance at the $22.13 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.18:1), $22.42 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.18:1), $23.03 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2.25:1) & $23.14/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2.25:1) price levels.

ACES, the ALPS Clean Energy ETF has declined -35.99% over the past year, shedding -37.21% since their 52-week high in August of 2022, but has rebounded +6.25% from their 52-week low in May of 2023 (ex-distributions).

Their RSI is trending toward oversold, with their MACD currently in a bearish decline.

Last week’s volumes were -9.08% below the year prior’s average trading volumes (75,020 vs. 82,509), as investors watched to see how their support levels held up as they moved down towards their 52-week low.

Friday’s dragonfly doji candle gives a glimmer of hope to a near-term reversal, but market participants would be wise to wait to see more concrete evidence of an uptrend before entering into a position.

Their meager 1.18% distribution yield will also not provide much protection against any further moves to the downside, making it essential to have some form of a hedge up for any current or new positions in ACES.

ACES has support at the $42.45 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.67:1), $42.21 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.67:1), $42.17 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.67:1) & $40.14/share (52-Week Low; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels, with resistance at the $42.87 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.67:1), $43.30 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.21:1), $43.72 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.21:1) & $44.50/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.36:1) price levels.

CNYA, the iShares MSCI China ETF has lost -14.55% over the past year, declining -17.62% from their 52-week high in August of 2022, while recovering +6.36% from their 52-week low in October of 2022 (ex-distributions).

Their RSI is trending towards oversold & their MACD is in bearish decline after Friday’s -3.09% gap down session.

Last week’s volume was -49.25% below the year prior’s average volume (60,680 vs. 119,572) signaling that there is uncertainty among market participants at the current price levels.

The inability of their moving averages to hold up as support levels further confirms that, as from Monday’s session onward they continued to sink beneath the 10 day moving average & then the 50 DMA as well.

Wednesday’s hanging man candlestick & Thursday’s shooting star that was held underneath the 10 day moving average predicted the sharp decline seen Friday & investors should remain weary of this name until they’ve established more solid footing beneath them.

While they do offer a 2.83% distribution yield for long-term holders, that is limited protection against further declines.

CNYA has support at the $29.18 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.1:1), $29.15 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.1:1), $28.88 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.5:1) & $28.84/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.5:1) price levels, with resistance at the $29.62 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.1:1), $29.85 (50 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.1:1), $30.14 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.3:1) & $30.19/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.3:1) price levels.

GDX, the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF has advanced +12.5% over the past year, but has fallen -18.75% from their 52-week high in May of 2023, while recovering +36.9% from their 52-week low in September of 2022 (ex-distributions).

Their RSI is trending back up towards neutral at 42.3, with their MACD trending back towards a bullish crossover.

Last week’s volume was -46.07% below the year prior’s average (12,724,480 vs. 23,594,986) signaling hesitance among investors.

Tuesday’s spinning top & Wednesday’s doji also support this sentiment, as investors do not seem confident in GDX’s current price level at this time.

They offer a 1.62% distribution yield for long-term holders, which does not provide much protection against downside moves.

GDX has support at the $28.91 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.37:1), $28.67 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.37:1), $28.41 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.37:1) & $28.02/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.37:1) price levels, with resistance at the $29.59 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.03:1), $29.77 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.03:1), $29.95 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.03:1) & $29.99/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.03:1) price levels.

Tying It All Together

Next week is quiet on the data reports front on Monday, with Tuesday featuring U.S. Retail Sales, Retail Sales Minus Autos, Import Price Index, Import Price Index Minus Fuel & the Empire State Manufacturing Survey at 8:30 am, followed by Business Inventories data at 10 am.

Monday’s earnings reports include Alcon, Heron Therapeutics, JinkoSolar & Monday.com.

Home Depot is scheduled to report earnings on Tuesday, as are Agilent, Cardinal Health, CAVA Group, Coherent, H & R Block, HUYA, IHS Holding, On, Sea Limited & Tencent Music.

Wednesday kicks off with Housing Starts at 8:30 am, followed by Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization at 9:15 am & the FOMC Minutes of July’s Meeting at 2 pm.

Cisco Systems reports earnings on Wednesday, as does 3D Systems, Alarm.com, AppLovin, Ballard Power, Clean Energy Fuels, Coeur Mining, Enersys, Genpact, GoodRX, Illumina, Infinera, Jack in the Box, Jazz Pharma, Lions Gate Entertainment, LL Flooring Holdings, Manulife Financial, Nomad Foods, ODP Corp., OGE Energy, Pan Am Silver, PENN Entertainment, Plug Power, Reynolds Consumer Products, Roblox, Statasys, Taboola, The Beauty Health Company, The Trade Desk, Valvoline, Vertex, Warby Parker, Wendy’s & Wynn Resorts.

Thursday features Initial Jobless Claims & the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey at 8:30 am, followed by the U.S. Leading Economic Indicators at 10 am.

Walmart headlines the earnings reports for Thursday, as well as Applied Materials, Bilibili, Dole, Farfetch, Keysight Technologies, Lumentum, Ross Stores & Tapestry.

Friday has no economic data being released, with earnings reports scheduled to come from Buckle, Deere, Estee Lauder, Palo Alto Networks & VIPShop.

See you back here next week!

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM, DIA, ERX, DXJ, EDIV, COWZ, UBT, ACES, CNYA or GDX AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF nudged forward +0.65% this past week, as earnings reports began coming in & in a week with limited economic data reported.

Their RSI ducked just inside of being in overbought territory & currently sits at 68.82, but their MACD is signaling a bearish crossover is going to occur in the coming days.

Last week’s average trading volumes were -17.96% below average compared to the year prior (68,485,850 vs. 83,473,641), as investors really didn’t have much conviction one way or the other & are awaiting more earnings reports, as well as the economic data & Federal Reserve Interest Rate announcement that are due this upcoming week.

The 10 day moving average will be interesting to watch this week, as it is the first level of support that SPY will test & all of its support levels are relatively spread out from one another, which will make for an interesting week if they decline as there is not much stable footing nearby below them.

For a list of price levels & their associated volume sentiments refer to the table below.

SPY has support at the $449.16 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.3:0*), $431.06 (50 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.10:1), $424.79 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.7:1) & $415.18/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.57:1) price levels, with resistance at the $452.69 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.2:1), $456.43 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.09:1), $460.87 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2:1) & $468.78/share (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF declined -0.91% over the past week, signaling the first weakness of the indexes as it was the only one to decline.

Their RSI has retreated from overbought conditions to sitting on the overbought end of neutral at 58.87 & their MACD has bearishly crossed over.

Last week’s average trading volumes were +1.33% above average volumes for the year prior (56,297,367 vs. 55,559,565), signaling that profits were being taken before a rate hike announcement or set of bad earnings calls could send everyone out of the pool in a hurry.

Wednesday’s spinning top candle got the decline rolling, with Friday’s candlestick unable to close above the 10 day moving average, a breakdown of support at that level.

There are two gaps that need to be tested/filled before the next support level for QQQ, which is the 50 day moving average.

Much like SPY, QQQ also has a wide spread between its current support levels, which makes it worthwhile to check the volume sentiment by price level table below to get an idea as to how market participants may behave at each level listed.

QQQ has support at the $356.70 (50 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.82:1), $322.05 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.51:1), $312.77 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.94:1) & $308.88/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.32:1) price levels, with resistance at the $377.20 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.5:1), $387.98 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.7:0*), $400.45 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $404.02/share (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF notched +1.53% this past week, second only to their larger cap Dow Jones Industrial Average counterparts.

Their RSI is retreating from near-overbought levels & is currently at 63.25, with their MACD signaling a bearish crossover is set to take place in the coming days.

Last week’s average trading volumes were -1.83% below the average volume for the year prior (27,321,683 vs. 27,829,759), signaling uncertainty among market participants & likely indicating some late in the week profit taking.

Wednesday’s session closed in a doji, which kicked off the running to the door & declines seen the rest of the week, but prices were able to maintain above the open of Tuesday’s session.

Much like the other indexes, IWM’s Price:Volume table will provide key insights into investors sentiment at each of their price levels & should be reviewed before this potentially volatile week begins.

However, IWM has closer support levels than many of their peers which can help to slow down any declines.

IWM has support at the $193.04 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.67:1), $187.48 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.17:1), $186.81 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.17:1) & $185.44/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.14:1) price levels, with resistance at the $197.66 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.57:1), $197.98 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.57:1), $198.74 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.5:1) & $204.46/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.5:0*) price levels.

DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF advanced +2.17% over the past week, faring the best of all of the major indexes, as investors looked favorably on large cap names.

Their RSI is overbought at 72.21, with their MACD beginning to signal a bearish crossover is on the horizon in the coming days.

Last week’s average trading volume was +11.46% higher than the average trading volume of the year prior (4,028,917 vs. 3,614,653), with the most volume of the week happening on Wednesday’s gap up session that closed in a shooting star candle, signaling a potential reversal on the horizon.

Thursday also resulted in a shooting star, with Friday’s candle closing as a spinning top, all ultimately showing that investors are walking on egg shells & prepared for the market to reverse at any moment.

DIA has support at the $346.33 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.17:1), $345.47 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.32:1), $343.68 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.32:1) & $340.82/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.32:1) price levels, with resistance at the $353.38 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.2:0*), $353.62 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.2:0*) & $358.47/share (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

Oil Services (OIH), Europe (EURL), Financials (FAS) & Colombia (GXG) Are All Bullishly Leading The Market

OIH, the VanEck Vectors Oil Services ETF has gained +57.51% over the past year, with +65.7% growth from their 52-week low in September of 2022 (ex-distributions).

Their RSI is overbought at 74 & their MACD is beginning to roll over bearishly, with an impending bearish crossover in the coming days.

Last week’s average trading volume was -30.01% less than the average volume for the year prior (511,100 vs. 730,220), signaling hesitancy among investors.

Tuesday’s session saw the most volume, with the following three sessions reflecting profit taking that resulted in three bearish spinning top candles.

OIH offers a modest 0.88% distribution yield, making it important to have a hedging strategy in place, either by selling calls, buying puts or another options hedging strategy in the near-term.

OIH has support at the $324.61 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.93:1), $319.53 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2.68:1), $310.00 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2.64:1) & $305.99/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.5:1) price levels, with resistance at the $331.64 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.82:1), $332.18 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $335.40 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $336.30 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*).

EURL, the Direxion Daily FTSE Europe Bull 3x Shares ETF has advanced +46.47% over the past year & has recovered an astounding +154.44% from their 52-week low in October of 2022 (ex-distributions).

Their RSI is currently at 60.73 & their MACD is beginning to signal weakness & an impending bearish crossover, as prices have spent the last week & a half relatively flat in a consolidation range.

Last week’s average trading volumes were -44.88% lower than the average volumes for the year prior (20,400 vs. 37,011), signaling sever uncertainty & hesitancy on the part of market participants.

The week before ended on Friday with a bearish engulfing pattern, with Monday kicking the week off with a doji candlestick & Wednesday & Friday following suit with the candlestick of uncertainty.

Wednesday’s dragonfly doji hints that the price level is unsustainable & will be reversing in the near-future.

EURL pays a 1.85% distribution yield to long-term holders, which provides some cushion against losses, but a hedging strategy would be wise at this time as the chart is signaling that there is a cool off period coming soon.

EURL has support at the $23.65 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.35:1), $23.41 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.35:1), $23.25 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.35:1) & $22.72/share (Volume Sentiment: Even, 1:1) price levels, with resistance at the $24.54 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2:1), $24.69 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2:1), $28.80 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.29:1) & $29.14/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 5:1) price levels.

FAS, the Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3x Shares ETF has climbed only +5.46% over the past year, but has improved +47.71% from their 52-week low in March of 2023 (ex-distributions).

Their RSI is overbought at 71.89, with their MACD beginning to signal that a bearish crossover is on the horizon, just as their 10 day moving average is bullishly crossing their 200 day moving average.

Last week’s average trading volume was +76.82% higher than the average trading volume of the year prior (2,559,900 vs. 1,447,726), as investors were eagerly buying the stock all week, before being twice as eager to take profits on Friday.

Friday’s candlestick’s body covered a wide range, with its closing price being about halfway down Thursday’s candle & the lower shadow extending 75% of the way down it, signaling that there is a good amount of downside sentiment at these price levels.

FAS offers a 1.85% distribution yield to long-term holders, which will not provide much protection against a draw down, making it important to examine hedging strategies or consider trimming positions for some profits in the near-term.

FAS has support at the $68.60 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2.6:1), $68.30 (200 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2.6:1), $66.77 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $66.69/share (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels, with resistance at the $72.65 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.5:1), $74.17 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 5:1), $75.68 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2.3:0*) & $76.43/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.5:1) price levels.

GXG, the Global X MSCI Colombia ETF has risen +7.74% over the past year, including a +29.28% climb from their 52-week low in March of 2023 (ex-distributions).

Their RSI is overbought at 70.2, with their MACD beginning to roll over in preparation for a bearish crossover in the coming sessions.

Last week’s average trading volume was -44.23% lower than the year prior’s average volumes (10,083 vs. 18,080), and the candlesticks further confirm the uncertainty of market participants.

Monday kicked off with a dragofly doji, followed by a gap up Tuesday & a dragonfly doji Wednesday that set the range for Thursday’s session, which was capped off by an ominous hanging man candle on Friday.

The 10 day moving average will be important to watch here, as it near’s the gap that was created last week & would be the support level in that area.

GXG pays a 6.32% distribution yield, which provides some protection against losses, but a hedging strategy or profit taking would be advisable based on the uncertainty reflected in their chart.

GXG has support at the $22.16 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.74:1), $22.14 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.74:1), $22.10 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.74:1) & $21.50/share (Volume Sentiment: Even, 1:1) price levels, with resistance at the $22.79 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.74:1), $23.36 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.31:1), $23.55 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.31:1) & $24/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2.17:1) price levels.

Regional Banks (DPST), China Small Caps (ECNS), Base Metals (DBB) & 1-3 Year Treasuries (SHY) Are All Bearishly Lagging The Market

DPST, the Direxion Daily Regional Banks Bull 3x Shares ETF has fallen -71.92% over the past year, losing -80.22% from their 52-week high in August of 2022, but has reclaimed +123.99% from their 52-week low in May of 2023 (ex-distributions).

Their RSI is 64.78 as it retreats back from overbought conditions, with their MACD beginning to signal a bearish crossover on the horizon.

Last weeks average trading volume was +261.84% higher than their prior year’s average volume (2,569,450 vs. 710,111), as Tuesday & Wednesday showed strong investor enthusiasm, with Thursday’s dragonfly doji candle setting the reversal stage for profit taking to continue into Friday.

DPST pays a 3.21% distribution yield, but it is still wise to begin looking for an appropriate hedging strategy to protect holdings from near-term declines.

DPST has support at the $76.41 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1:0*), $71.95 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.5:0*), $70.05 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.87:1) & $69.15/share (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 6.42:1) price levels, with resistance at the $166.40 (200 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $197.49 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $203.48 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $231.79/share (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

ECNS, the iShares MSCI China Small-Cap ETF has declined -17.12% over the past year, falling -28.39% from their 52-week high in February of 2023, but has reclaimed +10.58% since their 52-week low in October of 2022 (ex-distributions).

Their RSI is on the oversold end of neutral at 46.79, with their MACD already pointing bearishly & crossing over into weakness.

Last week’s average volume was -79.81% lower than the year prior’s average trading volume (3,633 vs. 18,000) signaling extreme uncertainty by market participants.

Monday began the week with a gap down, with Wednesday’s shooting star candlestick pushing the price range even lower into Thursday’s gap down doji candle.

The 10 & 50 day moving averages are now acting as resistance just overhead of ECNS & should be expected to continue applying downside pressure to them.

A 3.41% distribution yield will help protect against some losses, but a more comprehensive hedging strategy or profit taking should be considered at this time.

ECNS has support at the $28.98 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.87:1), $28.25 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.87:1), $28.10 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.87:1) & $28.09/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.87:1) price levels, with resistance at the $29.70 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.05:1), $29.78 (50 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.05:1), $30.11 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.12:1) & $30.50/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.12:1) price levels.

DBB, the Invesco DB Base Metals Fund ETF has lost -0.05% over the past year, declining -18.4% from their 52-week high in January of 2023 & has only managed to recover +4.77% from their 52-week low in May of 2023 (ex-distributions).

Their RSI is neutral at 50.48, with their MACD about to cross over bearishly in the next day or two’s session.

Last week’s average trading volume was -52.29% below the year prior’s average volumes (95,433 vs. 200,043), another signal of uncertainty & weakness for DBB in the eyes of traders & investors.

Monday last week kicked off with a gap down, followed by two more days of declines before two very light volume, but high price range (large full bodies of the candles) trading sessions, which are not indicative of market strength of sentiment.

DBB offers a 1.01% distribution yield for long-term investors, which will not provide much protection against any downside moves, making it worth looking into hedging options for the near-term.

DBB has support at the $18.15 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.23:1), $18.14 (50 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.23:1), $17.65 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.10:1) & $17.52/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.10:1) price levels, with resistance at the $18.31 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.23:1), $18.59 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.11:1), $18.73 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.11:1) & $18.84/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.11:1) price levels.

SHY, the iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF has inched forward +0.2% over the past year, but has fallen -1.28% from their 52-week high in May of 2023, while recovering +2.51% since their 52-week low in November of 2022 (ex-distributions).

Their RSI is currently neutral at 52.22, with their MACD rolling over to bearishly cross over in the coming week.

Their average volume last week was -12.21% lower than the year prior’s average volume (5,085,816 vs. 5,793,464) as investors are showing hesitancy to do much at these price levels.

Three dragonfly dojis last week confirm the lack of enthusiasm & overall skepticism about the near-term, with one on Monday to start the week, and Thursday & Friday also closing with them right up against the resistance of the 10 day moving average.

SHY offers a 2.31% distribution yield for long-term holders, but given the nature of the last week’s technicals, it would be wise to take some profits or find a hedging solution for the week ahead.

SHY has closed Friday at its 10 Day Moving Average, and has support at the $81.01 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.43:1), $80.93 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.09:1), $80.92 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.09:1) & $80.61/share (200 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.09:1) price levels, with resistance at the $81.17 (50 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.43:1), $81.19 (2 Touch-points; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.43:1), $81.38 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.43:1) & $81.43/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.43:1) price levels.

Tying It All Together

Next week is going to be busy on both the earnings & market data fronts.

Monday begins with S&P “Flash” U.S. Manufacturing PMI & S&P “Flash” U.S. Services PMI data released at 9:45 am.

On the earnings front, Agilysys, AGNC Investment, Alexandria Real Estate Equities, Brown & Brown, Cadence Design, Cleveland Cliffs, Domino’s Pizza, F5 Networks, Logitech International, Medpace, NextGen Healthcare, NXP Semiconductors, Packaging Corp of America, Range Resources, Simpson Manufacturing & Whirlpool are all set to report earnings data on Monday.

S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index (20 Cities) data comes out Tuesday at 9 am, followed by Consumer Confidence Data at 10 am.

Alphabet, Microsoft, 3M, Alaska Air, Albertsons, Archer-Daniels-Midland, Ashland, Avery Dennison, Biogen, Cal-Maine Foods, Canadian National Railway, Chubb, Corning, Danaher, Dover, Dow, GE Health Care, General Electric, General Motors, Invesco, Kimberly-Clark, Lamb Weston, Moody’s, MSCI, NextEra Energy, NextEra Energy Partners, Nucor, NVR, PacWest Bancorp, PulteGroup, Sherwin-Williams, Snap, Spotify, Texas Instruments, TransUnion, Universal Health, Verizon Communications, Visa, Waste Management, West Fraser & Xerox will all report earnings on Tuesday.

Wednesday kicks off with New Homes Sales data at 10 am, followed by the FOMC Decision On Interest-Rate Policy at 2pm & Fed Chairman Powell’s Press Conference at 2:30pm.

For earnings calls, Wednesday brings us Alkermes, Align Technology, American Water Works, AT&T, Automatic Data Processing, Boeing, Check Point Software, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Churchill Downs, CME Group, Coca-Cola, eBay, Fiserv, Flex, General Dynamics, Graco, Group 1 Auto, Helmerich & Payne, Hess, Hilton Worldwide Holdings, IDEX Corp, Invitation Homes, Lam Research, Lending Club, Mattel, Meta Platforms, Molina Healthcare, Navient, New Oriental Education & Technology, O’Reilly Automotive, Old Dominion, Otis Worldwide, Owens Corning, Patterson-UTI, Penske Auto, Pilgrim’s Pride, Quest Diagnostics, Ryder Systems, Seagate Technology, ServiceNow, Sun Communities, Teradyne, Thermo Fish Scientific, Tilray, Tower Semiconductor, Union Pacific, United Rentals, VICI Properties, Western Union & Wyndham Hotels & Resorts.

Thursday looks to be busy, with Initial Jobless Claims, Durable-Goods Orders, Durable Goods-Minus Transportation, GDP (Advanced report), Advanced U.S. Trade Balance In Goods, Advanced Retail Inventories & Advanced Wholesale Inventories data all reported at 8:30am & Pending Home Sales data at 10 am.

Amazon.com, AbbView, AGCO Corp, Alliance Bernstein, American Electric Power, American Homes 4 Rent, American Tower, ArcelorMittal, Beazer Homes, Boston Beer, Boston Scientific, Boyd Gaming, Bristol Myers Squibb, Chemours, Cincinnati Financial, Comcast, Coursera, Crocs, Cullen/Frost, Deckers Outdoor, Digital Realty Trust, Enphase Energy, Equity Residential, Essex Property, Federated Hermes, First Solar, Ford Motor, Gaming & Leisure Properties, W.W. Grainger, Harley-Davidson, Hershey Foods, Hertz Global, Hilton Grand Vacations, Honeywell, Internatonal Paper, Intel, Juniper Networks, Keurig Dr. Pepper, Kimco Realty, Labratory Corp of America, LendingTree, Linde, Martin Marietta, Masco, Mastercard, McDonald’s, MDC Holdings, Melco Resorts & Entertainment, Mobileye Global, Mondelez International, Neogen, Norfolk Southern, Northrop Grumman, Olin, Oshkosh, Overstock.com, Peabody Energy, PG&E, Roku, Royal Caribbean, S&P Global, Sketchers USA, Southwest Air, Sweetgreen, STMicroelectronics, Texas Roadhouse, T-Mobile US, Tractor Supply Company, Tradeweb Markets, U.S. Steel, Valero Energy, Verisign, Willis Towers Watson & Weyerhauser are all set to report earnings on Thursday.

8:30 am Friday starts off with Personal Income (nominal), Personal Spending (nominal), PCE Index, Core PCE Index, PCE (Year-over-Year), Core PCE (Year-over-Year) & Employment Cost Index Data, followed by Consumer Sentiment (final) data reported at 10am.

Wrapping up the week in earnings on Friday are Aon, AstraZeneca, Barnes Group, Booz Allen Hamilton, Centene, Chart Industries, Charter Communications, Chevron, Church & Dwight, Colgate-Palmolive, Exxon Mobile, Franklin Resources, Newell Brands, Newmark Group, Procter & Gamble, Saia, Sanofi, T. Rowe Price, W.P. Carey & Wisdom Tree.

See you back here next week!

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM, DIA, OIH, EURL, FAS, GXG, DPST, ECNS, DBB or SHY AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***

As I pointed out in last night’s weekly market review note, the S&P 500 & NASDAQ are at 52-week highs & the Russell 2000 & Dow Jones Industrial Average are near theirs.

RSI’s are all flashing overbought signals & we are entering earnings season, one which many analysts have reported would likely be weaker than anticipated.

At times like these, it is important to have an understanding of what the landscape beneath current pricing levels looks like, both in terms of the technicals on a chart & in sentiment of investors.

The following Price:Volume Sentiment analysis breaks down investor sentiments at the price levels that SPY (SPDR S&P 500 ETF), QQQ (Invesco QQQ Trust ETF, which tracks the NASDAQ), IWM (iShares Russell 2000 ETF) & DIA (SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF) have traded at over the past one-to-three years.

It can be used as a barometer that gauges how market participants have felt at various times during that period when the securities’ prices were within the box-ranges listed below.

The bold prices on the images & lists below denote the moving average levels just listed & the bold entries in the list form of the analysis under the images include other levels of support.

Each corresponding price level has a ratio of Buyers:Sellers (or Sellers:Buyers), NULL values denote that there was not enough data, so the ratio would’ve been 0:0.

Ratios with a 0 for the denominator/constant are denoted with an *, but are reported as is, as we are accounting for volume/sentiment.

Also, as there is such a wide spread between many price levels having activity data, many of the levels are marked NULL, as there was limited volume data for them, and they were not included in the long lists below unless they were relevant to support/resistance levels.

The following is meant to serve as a reference to how market participants have behaved historically at these price levels & is neither investment advice nor recommendations of any kind.

Price:Volume Sentiment Analysis For SPY, The SPDR S&P 500 ETF

Last week SPY gapped up on Wednesday to a new price range, however the volumes behind the week’s trading was lacluster.

With an overbought RSI, wise investors/traders who are in SPY should begin looking into their support levels.

For the detailed chart breakdown, please see last night’s post here.

The data below can serve as a tool to help investors figure out how price may behave at each price level should the index return to it.

SPY ETF’s Volume Sentiment By Price Level

(*BOLD denotes a Moving Average)
$472 – NULL – 0:0*; 5.06% From Current Price

$468 – NULL – 0:0*; 4.17% From Current Price

$464 – Buyers – 1.2:1; 3.28% From Current Price

$460 – Sellers – 2:1; 2.39% From Current Price

$456 – Buyers – 1.09:1; 1.5% From Current Price

$452 – Sellers – 1.2:1; 0.61% From Current Price

$448 – Sellers – 1.3:0*; -0.28% From Current Price

$444 – Buyers – 1.43:1; -1.18% From Current Price

$440 – Buyers – 2.47:1; -2.07% From Current Price

$436 – Even – 1:1; -2.96% From Current Price

$432 – Buyers – 1.23:1; -3.85% From Current Price

$428 – Seller s- 1.10:1; -4.74% From Current Price

$424 – Sellers – 1.70:1; -5.63% From Current Price

$420 – Buyers – 1.391; -6.52% From Current Price

$416 – Buyers – 1.43:1; -7.41% From Current Price

$412 – Buyers – 1.57:1; -8.3% From Current Price

$408 – Buyers – 1.10:1; -9.19% From Current Price

$404 – Sellers – 1.78:1; -10.08% From Current Price

$400 – Sellers – 1.12:1; -10.97% From Current Price

$396 – Buyers – 1.92:1; -11.86% From Current Price

$392 – Buyers – 2.04:1; -12.75% From Current Price

$388 – Sellers – 1.33:1; -13.64% From Current Price

$384 – Sellers – 3.38:1; -14.53% From Current Price

$380 – Sellers – 1.67:1; -15.42% From Current Price

$376 – Sellers – 2.4:1; -16.31% From Current Price

$372 – Sellers – 1.65:1; -17.2% From Current Price

$368 – Sellers – 1.28:1; -18.09% From Current Price

$364 – Sellers – 2.33:1; -18.98% From Current Price

$360 – Buyers – 1.67:1; -19.87% From Current Price

$356 – Sellers – 4:1; -20.76% From Current Price

$352 – Sellers – 3.2:0*; -21.65% From Current Price

$348 – NULL – 0:0*; -22.54% From Current Price

Price:Volume Sentiment Analysis For QQQ, The Invesco QQQ Trust ETF That Tracks The NASDAQ

QQQ is also in overbought territory, making it essential to have an understanding as to how market participants will react with the index as the price goes down.

For the detailed chart breakdown, please see last night’s post here.

QQQ ETF’s Volume Sentiment By Price Level

(*BOLD denotes a Moving Average)

$404 – NULL – 0:0*; 6.58% From Current Price

$400 – NULL – 0:0*; 5.52% From Current Price

$396 – Even – 1:1; 4.47% From Current Price

$392 – Buyers – 1.09:1; 3.41% From Current Price

$388 – Buyers – 0.5:0*; 2.36% From Current Price

$384 – Buyers – 0.7:0*; 1.3% From Current Price

$380 – Sellers – 3:1; 0.25% From Current Price

$376 – Buyers – 2.5:1; -0.81% From Current Price

$372 – Sellers – 2.9:0*; -1.87% From Current Price

$368 – Buyers – 9.33:1; -2.92% From Current Price

$364 – Buyers – 1.68:1; -3.98% From Current Price

$360 – Sellers – 1.06:1; -5.03% From Current Price

$356 – Sellers – 1.82:1; -6.09% From Current Price

$352 – Buyers – 2.33:1; -7.14% From Current Price

$348 – Sellers – 1.03:1; -8.2% From Current Price

$344 – Sellers – 1.28:1; -9.25% From Current Price

$340 – Buyers – 1.12:1; -10.31% From Current Price

$336 – Sellers – 1.42:1; -11.36% From Current Price

$332 – Sellers – 4:1; -12.42% From Current Price

$328 – Buyers – 1.15:1; -13.47% From Current Price

$324 – Buyers – 2.4:1; -14.53% From Current Price

$320 – Sellers – 1.51:1; -15.58% From Current Price

$316 – Sellers – 1.29:1; -16.64% From Current Price

$312 – Sellers – 1.94:1; -17.69% From Current Price

$308 – Buyers – 1.32:1; -18.75% From Current Price

$304 – Buyers – 1.04:1; -19.8% From Current Price

$300 – Sellers – 1.86:1; -20.86% From Current Price

$296 – Buyers – 2.74:1; -21.91% From Current Price

$292 – Buyers – 1.67:1; -22.97% From Current Price

$288 – Sellers – 1.93:1; -24.02% From Current Price

$284 – Sellers – 1.81:1; -25.08% From Current Price

$280 – Buyers – 1.18:1; -26.14% From Current Price

$276 – Sellers – 1.4:1; -27.19% From Current Price

$272 – Sellers – 1.04:1; -28.25% From Current Price

$268 – Sellers – 1.5:1; -29.3% From Current Price

$264 – Sellers – 1.24:1; -30.36% From Current Price

$260 – Sellers – 3.4:1; -31.41% From Current Price

$256 – Buyers – 2.3:0*; -32.47% From Current Price

Price:Volume Sentiment Analysis For IWM, The iShares Russell 2000 ETF

They tend to stay much more in a range compared to SPY & QQQ, making it important to understand their behavior at different price levels, as they are more likely to return to the same level more often than the other names listed in this article.

For the detailed chart breakdown, please see last night’s post here.

IWM ETF’s Volume Sentiment By Price Level

(*BOLD denotes a Moving Average)

$204 – Buyers – 0.5:0*; 6.51% From Current Price

$200 – NULL – 0:0*; 4.42% From Current Price

$198 – Sellers – 1.5:1; 3.38% From Current Price

$196 – Buyers – 2.57:1; 2.33% From Current Price

$194 – Sellers – 2.75:1; 1.29% From Current Price

$192 – Buyers – 1.67:1; 0.25% From Current Price

$190 – Buyers – 1.39:1; -0.8% From Current Price

$188 – Buyers – 2.5:1; -1.84% From Current Price

$186 – Buyers – 3.17:1; -2.89% From Current Price

$184 – Sellers – 1.14:1; -3.93% From Current Price

$182 – Buyers – 1.05:1; -4.98% From Current Price

$180 – Even – 1:1; -6.02% From Current Price

$178 – Sellers – 1.13:1; -7.06% From Current Price

$176 – Buyers – 1.75:1; -8.11% From Current Price

$174 – Buyers – 1.30:1; -9.15% From Current Price

$172 – Sellers – 1.93:1; -10.2% From Current Price

$170 – Buyers – 1.07:1; -11.24% From Current Price

$168 – Sellers – 1.55:1; -12.29% From Current Price

$166 – Sellers – 3.9:1; -13.33% From Current Price

$164 – Sellers – 2.7:1; -14.37% From Current Price

$162 – Sellers – 1.31:1; -15.42% From Current Price

Price:Volume Sentiment Analysis For DIA, The SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF

DIA has remained more consistently priced than its peers that are also examined in this document, likely as investors seek safety in uncertain times by buying larger cap stocks.

For the detailed chart breakdown, please see last night’s post here.

DIA ETF’s Volume Sentiment By Price Level

(*BOLD denotes a Moving Average)

$356 – NULL – 0:0*; 3.14% From Current Price

$352 – Buyers – 0.2:0*; 1.98% From Current Price

$348 – Buyers – 1.57:1; 0.82% From Current Price

$344 – Buyers – 3.17:1; -0.34% From Current Price

$340 – Buyers – 1.32:1; -1.5% From Current Price

$336 – Buyers – 1.33:1; -2.66% From Current Price

$332 – Sellers – 1.08:1; -3.82% From Current Price

$328 – Sellers – 1.17:1; -4.97% From Current Price

$324 – Sellers – 1.36:1; -6.13% From Current Price

$320 – Sellers – 1.10:1; -7.29% From Current Price

$316 – Sellers – 1.36:1; -8.45% From Current Price

$312 – Buyers – 1.2:1; -9.61% From Current Price

$308 – Buyers – 1.54:1; -10.77% From Current Price

$304 – Buyers – 1.18:1; -11.93% From Current Price

$300 – Buyers – 1.19:1; -13.09% From Current Price

$296 – Sellers – 1.6:1; -14.25% From Current Price

$292 – Sellers – 1.25:1; -15.4% From Current Price

$288 – Buyers – 1.46:1; -16.56% From Current Price

$284 – Sellers – 1.31:1; -17.72% From Current Price

$280 – Buyers – 1.6:1; -18.88% From Current Price

$276 – Buyers – 2.67:1; -20.04% From Current Price

$272 – Buyers – 7:1; -21.2% From Current Price

$268 – Sellers – 1.33:1; -22.36% From Current Price

$264- Buyers- 3.38:1; -23.52% From Current Price

$260 – Sellers – 1.64:1; -24.67% From Current Price

$256 – Buyers – 2.4:1; -25.83% From Current Price

$252 – Buyers – 1.33:1; -26.99% From Current Price

$248 – Buyers – 3.25:1; -28.15% From Current Price

$244 – Buyers – 3.6:1; -29.31% From Current Price

$240 – Even – 1:1; -30.47% From Current Price

$236 – Sellers – 5:1; -31.63% From Current Price

$232 – Buyers – 1.2:0*; -32.79% From Current Price

$228 – Sellers – 2:1; -33.95% From Current Price

$224 – Even – 1:1; -35.1% From Current Price

$220 – Buyers – 1.47:1; -36.26% From Current Price

$216 – Buyers – 1.6:1; -37.42% From Current Price

$212 – Buyers – 2:0*; -38.58% From Current Price

$208 – Buyers – 0.5:0*; -39.74% From Current Price

$204 – Sellers – 0.4:0*; -40.9% From Current Price

$200 – Buyers – 2:1; -42.06% From Current Price

$198 – Sellers – 1.1:1; -43.22% From Current Price

$196 – Sellers – 0.4:0*; -43.8% From Current Price

$194 – Buyers – 0.8:0*; -44.38% From Current Price

$192 – NULL – 0:0*; -45.53% From Current Price

$190 – Sellers – 0.7:0*; -46.11% From Current Price

$188 – Buyers – 0.8:0*; -46.69% From Current Price

$186 – Sellers – 0.8:0*; -47.27% From Current Price

Tying It All Together

Volume is one of the best indicators of investor sentiment that can be applied to any time frame, price level, or price range to help paint a better picture of the market’s behavior.

While it does not predict what will happen in the future as market conditions are ever changing & new variables may be of more importance now than they were when these volume levels were read, it can provide a reference as to how investors may behave when the same levels are approached again.

This document was intended to show investor sentiment at levels of support & resistance that are currently relevant to their price levels, while also providing more widespread data that can be used as prices move away from the levels of support & resistance mentioned above.

It can be combined with a current analysis of markets to give more clarity into how investors have historically behaved when prices have been in the price levels listed during the relevant time periods to provide additional detail to your analysis.

It is not intended to serve as investment recommendations or advice.

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM or DIA AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF gained +2.45% over the past week, only outperforming the Dow Jones Industrial Average in terms of weekly performance for an index.

Their RSI closed in overbought territory for the week at 70.9, while their MACD remains mildly bullish, but not strong.

Their volume this week was below average compared to the year prior (722,203,760 vs. 83,556,752), with the heaviest traded session falling on Wednesday, a gap up day that resulted in a spinning top candlestick, a sign of uncertainty among investors.

Friday closed the week out also on a spinning top candle, but Friday’s was bearish, which makes it seem more likely that we will see Wednesday’s gap attempt to be filled this week.

There is support within the gap from the 10 Day Moving Average, but oscillators are signaling that we are due for a consolidation, which based on how far spaced apart support levels are at the moment may cause a 5%+ drop from their current price level.

SPY has support at the $443.54 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.47:1), $426.61 (50 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.70:1), $424.79 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.70:1) & $416.07 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.43:1), with resistance at the $452.69 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.2:1), $460.87 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2:1) & $468.78/share (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF climbed +3.5% over the past week, as the technology-heavy index was the second best performing index to the small cap Russell 2000.

Their RSI is also overbought at 71.92, with their MACD beginning to signal danger ahead & turning bearish.

Volumes were slightly below average last week compared to the prior year (50,149,220 vs. 55,601,102), which indicates that the weekly gain was not done with complete confidence by market participants.

Wednesday’s gap up day resulted in a doji, signaling uncertainty about the following price movement, and while Thursday’s candle was more confident (in terms of body:shadow), volume dipped that day, despite it being another gap up, indicating that investors were on the fence.

Friday’s gravestone doji on a bearish session with higher volume than Thursday’s confirms this sentiment, as investors did not want to carry much additional risk into the weekend & were beginning to take profits & perhaps make hedges.

QQQ doesn’t have any support between the price & the bottom of the gap formed on Thursday, but does have two touch-points around the second gap formed Wednesday, which could lead into a steep decline, with the 50 Day Moving Average falling -7.52% below the current price being the last major support near the price that doesn’t fall within what is considered a “correction” range.

QQQ has support at the $372.34 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2.9:0*), $370.93 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 9.33:1), $357.59 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.82:1) & $350.56/share (50 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.03:1) price levels, with resistance at the $404.02/share price level (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*).

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF improved +3.69% over the past week, faring the best of the major indexes.

Their RSI is just beyond the overbought end of the neutral range at 62.55 & trending downward, with their MACD beginning to show signals of a bearish crossover in the coming days’ sessions.

Volumes were slightly above average last week compared to the year prior (30,455,980 vs. 27,794,121), with an interesting trend between the two heaviest volume days.

They were the bookends of the current price range established by Wednesday’s gap up (heaviest volume) & Friday’s session, whose lower shadow extended well into the aforementioned gap, but recovered enough before the close to stay just below the new price range.

There is no support within this gap, which makes the coming days interesting as the nearest support level sits below the gap & -1.7% below the current price.

IWM has support at the $188.27 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.5:1), $187.48 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.17:1), $186.81 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.17:1) & $185.44/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.14:1) price levels, with resistance at the $193.68 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.67:1), $197.98 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.57:1), $198.74 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.5:1) & $202.21/share (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF advanced +2.29% over the past week, the least among the major averages.

Their RSI is on the overbought end of the neutral range at 61.88, with a MACD that is barely bullish.

Volumes were lighter than average last week compared to the year prior (2,989,640 vs. 3,588,598), signaling uncertainty among market participants.

Their highest volume day of the week was Wednesday, where they gapped up slightly, but the session closed below where it opened, signaling further uncertainty & a lack of confidence in the move.

Thursday & Friday resulted in spinning top candles, another sign of uncertainty among market participants, but unlike the other indexes, DIA has support levels much closer to their current price, which is also likely due to the size of the index components.

DIA has support at the $343.94 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.32:1), $342.23 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.32:1), $341.08 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.32:1) & $340.36/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.32:1) price levels, with resistance at the $345.73/share price level (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.17:1)

Let’s dive into some of the best & worst performing industries & geo-locations in the market now based on their ETF’s technical rating!

Transportation (TPOR), Mexico (MEXX), Industrials (DUSL) & Social Media (SOCL) Are Bullishly Leading The Market

TPOR, the Direxion Daily Transportation Bull 3x Shares ETF has climbed +39.61% over the past year, including a +95.63% recovery from their 52-week low in October of 2022 (ex-distributions).

Their RSI just dipped back beneath overbought levels at 67.05, with their MACD signaling an impending bearish crossover in the coming sessions after the mid-to-end of week weakness.

Last week’s volume was above average compared to the year prior (34,080 vs. 26,825), however the configuration of the week’s candlesticks should be a cause of concern for market participants.

Monday & Tuesday were advancing days, but they also had the lowest volumes of the week, with exception to Wednesday’s session, which is currently marking the most recent top & the reversal point, as the day opened above the prior two, but closed below the open.

Investors may think to take some profits or hedge against losses using an options strategy while waiting to see how it behaves around support levels, as their 0.83% distribution yield will not provide much protection.

TPOR has support at the $32.54 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2.25:1), $32.37 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2.25:1), $32.04 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2.25:1) & $28.61/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.69:1), with resistance at the $34.23 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2:1), $36.01 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.48:1), $38.14 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.2:1) & $40.16/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.79:1) price levels.

MEXX, the Direxion Daily MSCI Mexico Bull 3x Shares ETF has ballooned an astounding +142.18% over the past year, tacking on +176.43% from their 52-week low in September of 2022 (ex-distributions).

Their RSI is beginning to trend back towards neutral at 57.75, but their MACD is still bullish.

Last week’s volume decline to below half of the past year’s average (1,040 vs. 2,370) as the latter half of the week was marked with gaps & lower closing than opening prices (with exception to Friday’s session), signaling uncertainty among investors.

Friday’s candle does require a closer examination, as the day opened lower & the open & low were the same price level, and the closing price also happened to be the high for the day on a bearish gap down that fell midway between the body of Wednesday’s candle.

This has tended to lead to near-term bearishness, which makes it important to take profits or have a hedging strategy in place, such as buying puts or selling calls, as their 1.27% distribution yield will not provide much protection against losses.

MEXX has support at the $156.97 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 4.7:0*), $156.18 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 4.7:0* ), $155.17 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.67:1) & $148.73/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 4.29:1) price levels, with resistance overhead at the $166.25 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.9:0*), $166.94 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.9:0*), $209.77 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $249.31/share (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

DUSL, the Direxion Daily Industrials Bull 3x Shares ETF has gained +68.68% over the past year, adding +97.95% from their 52-week low in October of 2022 (ex-distributions).

Their RSI is trending back toward neutral from overbought at 65.57, with their MACD showing an impending bearish crossover on the horizon.

Last week’s volume was more than double the average volume of the year prior (50,580 vs. 24,198) with the highest volumes occurring on Tuesday’s gap up session & Thursday’s session which resulted in a dragonfly doji.

Friday closed with a hanging man candle in a three day downtrend, which signals more weakness is on the horizon.

With only a 1.21% distribution yield there is not much in terms of protection against losses during a consolidation period, making it appropriate to find a hedging strategy & to trim some profits after the bull run of the last month & a half.

DUSL has support at the $38.75 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.04:1), $37.34 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.41:1), $36.84 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.72:1) & $36.78/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.72:1) price levels, with resistance at the $41.07 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.31:1), $42.28 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.75:1), $44.33 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2.7:1) & $48.73/share (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

SOCL, the Global X Social Media Index ETF has advanced +21.39% over the past year, gaining +63.08% since their 52-week low in November of 2022 (ex-distributions).

Their RSI is trending back out of overbought territory at 67.96, but their MACD is still bullish (although beginning to curl over bearishly).

Last week’s volume fell to about half of the average volume for the year (16,080 vs. 31,306) in a week that’s gains mostly were due to Wednesday & Thursday’s gap up sessions.

SOCL sports a modest 0.48% distribution yield, which will not provide much protection against losses, making this a good time to think about a hedging strategy & profit taking before it attempts to fill in the gaps from last week & consolidate while its oscillators return to normal levels.

SOCL has support at the $38.97 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.21:1), $38.54 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.21:1), $37.85 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.11:1) & $37.08/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.11:1) price levels, with resistance at the $40.24 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 4.14:1), $45.20 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 3.4:1), $45.63 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 3.4:1) & $49.32/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.03:1) price levels.

Energy (ERX), Thailand (THD), 7-10 Year U.S. Treasuries (UST) & U.S. Pharmaceuticals (IHE) Are Bearishly Lagging The Market

ERX, the Direxion Daily Energy Bull 2x Shares ETF has gained 26.57% over the past year, including a +30.29% rebound from their 52-week low in September of 2022, but has declined -29.76% from their 52-week high in November of 2022 (ex-distributions).

Their RSI has dropped to neutral at 51.76 & their MACD is moving towards a bearish crossover in the coming days.

Last week’s volume was below average compared to the year prior (998,940 vs. 1,462,217) in a week that started off advancing & on Wednesday went into bearish decline after Wednesday’s spinning top candle led to another on Thursday & a break of the 10 Day Moving Average’s support on Friday’s down day.

ERX pays a 3.13% distribution yield to long-term holders, which will provide some protection against losses, however it would be wise to begin looking for hedges against any existing positions while watching to see how its support levels hold up.

ERX has support at the $54.39 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.01:1), $54.13 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.01:1), $52.82 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.42:1) & $53.81/share (50 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.23:1) price levels, with resistance overhead at the $55.15 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 4.3:0*), $55.39 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 4.3:0*), $55.46 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 4.3:0*) & $55.88/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 4.3:0*) price levels.

THD, the iShares MSCI Thailand Capped ETF has inched forward +5.57% over the past year & +8.28% from their 52-week low in October of 2022, but has fallen -16.64% since their 52-week high in January of 2023 (ex-distributions).

Their RSI is about neutral at 53.94, with their MACD still bullish following 5 sessions of gains, but a warning signal was shown on Friday.

Last week’s volume was slightly above average compared to the past year (80,140 vs. 78,464), but the day with the most volume came on Friday which resulted in a gravestone doji.

This week investors will have their eyes peeled to see if the will be a bearish reversal & how support levels hold up.

While they offer a 2.66% distribution yield, a hedging strategy using options would be a wise thing to look into in the coming days.

THD has support at the $67.02 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.37:1), $66.68 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.41:1), $66.26 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.41:!) & $64.77/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.33:1) price levels, with resistance at the $67.50 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.37:1), $67.61 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.37:1), $67.91 (50 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.37:1) & $68.35/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.03:1) price levels.

UST, the ProShares Ultra 7-10 Year Treasury ETF has lost -12.46% over the past year, recovering +4.48% from their 52-week low in July of 2022 & dropped -19.55% since their 52-week high in August of 2022 (ex-distributions).

Their RSI is about neutral at 49.90 & their MACD is currently bullish, mostly due to a pair of gap ups on Wednesday & Thursday of last week.

Last week’s volumes were minuscule compared to the average volume of the past year (4,080 vs. 12,376), signaling that there was not much conviction among investors in the moves of the past week & investors should proceed with caution.

While UST offers a 2.2% distribution yield for long-term holders, that is limited protection against further consolidation & the closing of the gap that began on Friday, making it worthwhile to have a hedging strategy in place & waiting to see how it behaves around its support levels, especially given how the 10, 50 & 200 day moving averages are currently positioned around their share price.

UST has support at the $46.28 (Volume Sentiment: ), $46.11 (Volume Sentiment: ), $45.69 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: ) & $45.13/share (Volume Sentiment: ) price levels, with resistance at the $46.96 (Volume Sentiment: ), $47.31 (50 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: ), $47.46 (200 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: ) & $48.10/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.04:1) price levels.

IHE, the iShares U.S. Pharmaceutical ETF has given up -4.82% over the past year, recovered +5.47% from their 52-week low in October of 2022, but declined -8.95% from their 52-week high in July of 2022 (ex-distributions).

Their RSI is neutral at 50.09, with a bearish MACD that is beginning to trend towards a bullish crossover after Friday’s gap up session.

Last week’s volume was fell far below the average volume for the year (4,700 vs. 9,453), with Thursday’s candlestick receiving the most volume, followed by Friday’s gap up candle.

One thing of note on Friday’s candle, the high of the day went up to the 50 Day Moving Average & then ducked back down to close beneath it, with a shadow in between the close & the 50 DMA.

Based on the light volume, neutral RSI & lack of support levels within the window it created, this gap is something that is likely to be filled in the coming week & investors should be cautious.

Their 1.98% distribution yield does not offer much protection against declines, making a good time to begin planning a hedging strategy as the nearest level of support is at $173.66/share.

IHE has support at the $175.67 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2.32:1), $173.66 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.4:1), $173.26 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.4:1) & $172.88/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.4:1), with resistance at the $176.44 (50 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.15:1), $177.05 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.15:1), $178.15 (200 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Even, 1:1) & $179.88/share (Volume Sentiment: Even, 1:1) price levels.

Tying It All Together

This week kicks off at 8:30 am on Monday with the Empire State Manufacturing Survey & Equity Lifestyle Properties reports earnings.

Tuesday things get busier, with U.S. Retail Sales & Retail Sales Minus Autos data due at 8:30 am, followed by Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization data at 9:15 am & at 10 am Business Inventories & Home Builder Confidence Index data is set to be reported.

Also on Tuesday, there will be many earnings reports including Bank of America, Bank of New York Mellon, Charles Schwab, Hasbro, Interactive Brokers, J.B. Hunt Transportation Services, Lockheed Martin, Morgan Stanley, Novartis, Omnicom, Pinnacle Financial Partners, PNC, Prologis, Synchrony Financial & Western Alliance Bancorp.

Wednesday morning at 8:30 am we get Housing Starts data.

Netflix, Tesla, Alcoa, Ally Financial, ASML, Baker Hughes, Citizens Financial Group, Cohen & Steers, Crown Castle, Discover Financial Services, Equifax, First Horizon, Goldman Sachs, Halliburton, International Business Machines, Kinder Morgan, Las Vegas Sands, M&T Bank, Nasdaq, Rexford Industrial Realty, SL Green Realty, Steel Dynamics, U.S. Bancorp, United Airlines & Zions Bancorp are also all due to report earnings on Wednesday.

Initial Jobless Claims & the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey data are set to be reported at 8:30 am on Thursday, followed by Existing Home Sales & U.S. Leading Economic Indicators data at 10 am.

American Airlines, Badger Meter, Blackstone, Capital One Financial, CSX, D.R. Horton, Fifth Third, Freeport-McMoran, First Financial, Genuine Parts, Intuitive Surgical, Johnson & Johnson, KeyCorp, Knight-Swift Transportation, Marsh McLennan, Newmont Goldcorp, Phillip Morris International, PPG Industries, Pool, SAP, Snap-On, Travelers, Truist Financial & W.R. Berkley are all due to report earnings on Thursday.

Friday has no economic data scheduled, but American Express, AutoNation, Comerica, Huntington Banc, Regions Financial, Roper Technologies & SLB are all due to report earnings.

See you back here next week!

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM, DIA, TPOR, MEXX, DUSL, SOCL, ERX, THD, UST, or IHE AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF declined -1.07% last week, in a week that was marked by jumpy gaps that resulted in prices settling just above the 10 day moving average.

Their RSI is retreating from overbought territory & currently at 59.5 & their MACD is bearishly falling.

Sessions from early last week were on below average volume compared to the year prior, with the end of the week’s volume levels returning more to about average, which could be a sign of indecisiveness among investors, or just less people trading during the holiday week.

Monday’s spinning top candle ultimately set the tone for the rest of the week declining, after the previous Friday’s session’s gap up.

Thursday’s gap down began a new price range, but Friday’s gravestone doji signals that more declines are on the near-term horizon & suggests a lack of confidence in current price levels among investors.

SPY has support at the $438.37 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Even, 1:1), $424.79 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.70:1), $423.10 ( 50 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.39:1) & $415.18/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.57:1), with resistance at the $444.30 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 14.29:1), $447.43 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 14.29:1), $452.69 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.2:1) & $460.87/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2:1).

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF fell -0.86% last week, as the NASDAQ performed strongest of all of the major indexes.

Their RSI is on the oversold end of neutral at 60.19, while their MACD is bearish.

Overall, volumes were below average last week compared to the year prior, as there is a lot of uncertainty about the Federal Reserve’s course of interest rate hikes, which will impact the tech-heavy NASDAQ more than most stocks.

Monday’s doji followed by Wednesday’s shooting star candlestick show that the near-term sentiment among investors & traders is more bearish, with Thursday & Friday’s price action mostly opening & closing around the exact same price levels, being supported by the 10 day moving average.

QQQ has support at the $365.61 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.68:1), $345.13 (50 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.28:1), $332.05 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 4:1) & $312.77/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.94:1), with resistance at the $372.34 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2.9:0*), $374.55 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2.9:0*), $377.90 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.5:1) & $400.45/share (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*).

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF dropped -1.37% last week, as investors were selling smaller cap names.

Their RSI is about neutral at 53.6, but their MACD is currently giving bearish signals.

Monday & Wednesday’s sessions had below average volumes compared to the year prior, but the end of the week’s levels returned to about average.

Monday kicked the week off with a shooting star candlestick to set the tone off as bearish for the week, leading to Thursday’s large gap down session that tested price levels well below the range that the open & closing prices occurred in.

Friday attempted to reclaim the window’s range created by Thursday’s gap, but was ultimately won by the bears who kept prices to the lower half of the day’s candle & below the prior Thursday’s candle, indicating sentiment is still widely bearish.

IWM has support at the $184.35 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.14:1), $183.56 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.05:1), $179.28 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.13:1) & $179.11/share (50 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.13:1), with resistance at the $187.48 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.17:1), $189.24 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.5:1), $197.98 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.57:1) & $198.74/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.5:1) price levels.

DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF lost -1.87% last week, as even the largest companies were not immune against the selling pressure across the overall market.

Their RSI is about neutral at 47.47, but their MACD is also signaling impending bearishness.

Thursday had the week’s strongest volumes, but overall the levels were not noteworthy compared to the year prior, indicating either caution on the part of investors, or being attributable to the holiday on Tuesday.

Their 10 day moving average was not able to provide the support needed to keep prices from the declines seen on Thursday’s gap down session & Friday’s session’s open/closing prices were trending closer to the 50 day moving average.

DIA has support at the $336.44 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.33:1), $335.87 (50 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.08:1), $327.16 (200 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.36:1) & $326.32/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.36:1), with resistance at the $340.04 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.32:1), $340.07 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.32:1), $$340.46 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.32:1) & $341.08/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.32:1) price levels.

Semiconductors (SOXL), Brazil (BRZU), Japan (DXJ) & Dynamic Oil & Gas Services (PXJ) Are All Bullishly Leading The Market

SOXL, the Direxion Daily Semiconductors Bull 3x Shares ETF has gained +79.61% over the past year, improving an astonishing +296.73% since its 52-week low in October of 2022 (ex-distributions).

Their RSI is neutral at 51.46, but their MACD is currently in a bearish decline.

Volumes were below average compared to the year prior all week, signaling waning enthusiasm among investors & traders.

Last Monday’s session resulted in a spinning top, following another in the Friday before’s session as investors signaled uncertainty.

Thursday’s gap down couldn’t find any support from the 10 day moving average & Friday’s gravestone doji signals that there looks to be more bearish sentiment in the near-term.

SOXL pays a modest 0.61% distribution yield to long-term shareholders, which does not provide much of a cushion against losses, making it wise for holders of existing positions to have an insurance policy in place, such as selling calls or buying puts while waiting to see how their price behaves around other levels of support.

SOXL has support at the $22.05 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.23:1), $21.52 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.13:1), $20.40 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2.63:1) & $19.75/share (50 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.45:1), with resistance at the $23.60 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.5:1), $24.76 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.67:1), $25.75 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.06:1) & $26.75/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.2:0*) price levels.

BRZU, the Direxion Daily Brazil Bull 2x Shares ETF has added +52.74% over the past year, including a 64.33% gain from their 52-week low in March of 2023 (ex-distributions).

Their RSI is relatively neutral at 53.78, but their MACD is in a bearish decline following mid-June’s price correction.

Volumes have been well below average recently compared to the year prior, signaling that there is uncertainty ahead & that enthusiasm is waning among investors.

Monday & Wednesday’s sessions were spinning tops, indicating uncertainty among market participants, before Thursday’s gap down & Friday’s shooting star candle indicates that there is likely more declines on the horizon.

BRZU pays a 3.98% distribution yield to long-term shareholders, which offers some protection against losses, but as with any other name & a chart that is flashing caution, it is wise to have some form of insurance against losses in the forms of an options hedge for the coming weeks.

BRZU has support at the $86.26 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $85.89 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2:1), $85.16 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2:1) & $83.35/share (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), with resistance at the $88.42 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 3:1), $91.68 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.33:1), $91.81 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.33:1) & $92.11/share (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

DXJ, the WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity Fund ETF has risen +34.56% over the past year, improving +32.88% since their 52-week low in September of 2022 (ex-distributions).

Their MACD is relatively neutral at 56.66, but their MACD is bearish, which became even steeper following Thursday’s gap down.

Volumes were roughly average compared to the year prior last week, but while there may have been conviction behind moves DXJ made, the candlesticks don’t paint the brightest of pictures for their near-term outlook.

Monday’s session resulted in a spinning top, followed by the dragonfly doji on Wednesday, a hanging man on Thursday & prices were unable to recover to the 10 day moving average on Friday, with the day’s opening & closing levels occurring at the bottom of the candle.

With bearish sentiment remaining after DXJ recently hit all time highs, it would be wisest to hedge a position against further near-term declines, as their 3.17% distribution yield will not cover against all losses.

DXJ is near its all time high & has support at the $80.64 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $79.81 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $77.55 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $77.53/share (50 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), with resistance at the $82.55 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $83.30 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $84.09/share (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price level.

PXJ, the Invesco Dynamic Oil & Gas Services ETF has gained +49.92% over the past year, with a +61.85% rebound from their 52-week low in July of 2022 (ex-distributions).

Their RSI is overbought at 70.04 & their MACD is still signaling bullishness, especially after Friday’s +6.05% gain.

Recent volumes have been below average compared to the year prior.

Last week’s candlesticks began signaling bearishness early in the week & with Wednesday’s dragonfly doji & Thursday’s spinning top, but Friday’s session showed solid price action with prices closing near the highs of the day.

Volume on Friday was relatively tame though, which does not provide much confirmation for the day’s price movement.

PXJ provides a 1.28% distribution yield to long-term investors, making it important to be monitoring open positions & being prepared to hedge against near-term declines, especially as the oscillators cool off from Friday’s large movement.

PXJ has support at the $5.23 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.37:1), $5.20 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.37:1), $5.16 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.37:1) & $5.15/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.37:1), with resistance at the $5.27 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.37:1), $5.29 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.37:1), $5.51 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.57:1) & $5.56/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.57:1) price levels.

Optimum Yield Diversified Commodity Strategy (PDBC), South Africa (EZA), Long-term Treasuries (SPTL) & Global Gold Miners (RING) Are All Bearishly Lagging The Market

PDBC, the Invesco Optimum Yield Diversified Commodity Strategy No. K-1 ETF has fallen -11.33% over the past year, losing -24.52% since their 52-week high in August of 2022, but has reclaimed +4.39% since their 52-week low in May of 2023 (ex-distributions).

Their RSI is relatively neutral at 53.01, with their MACD signaling a bullish crossover on the horizon, after steady growth in price over the past two weeks.

Last week’s volumes were below average compared to the year prior though, which does not indicate a strong sense of confidence among investors, despite their price being held up by the 10 & 50 day moving averages functioning as levels of support on Friday.

The $14 price level will be an area of interest to watch if they continue climbing in the weeks ahead, but they will need more eager investor sentiment in order to continue upwards.

PDBC pays a handsome 13.98% distribution yield for long-term holders, but hedging would be wise, especially once you notice that they are being held up at resistance points down the line.

PDBC has support at the $13.71 (50 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.46:1), $13.64 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.46:1), $13.39 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.46:1 ) & $13.38/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.46:1), with resistance at the $13.96 (2 Touch-points in past 52-weeks; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.46:1), $14.00 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.04:1), $14.12 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.04:1) & $14.17/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.04:1) price levels.

EZA, the iShares MSCI South Africa ETF has lost -2.56% over the past year, declining -18.37% from their 52-week high in January of 2023, but has climbed back +9.37% since their 52-week low in October of 2022 (ex-distributions).

Their RSI is on the oversold end of neutral at 45.64, with their MACD signaling bearishness.

Last week’s volumes were below average compared to the year prior, signaling that there is uncertainty among investors currently.

In the coming week, it will be interesting to see if 10 & 50 day moving averages apply downward pressure on their share price or if their resistance levels will be able to be broken.

EZA provides a 3.43% distribution yield for long-term investors which will provide some protection against losses, but hedging a position would be wise if they begin to falter around resistance levels.

EZA has support at the $37.99 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.26:1), $37.92 (Two Touch-points In The Past 52-Weeks; Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.26:1), $37.77 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.26:1) & $37.25/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.26:1), with resistance at the $39.27 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.54:1), $39.64 (50 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.54:1), $40.56 (200 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.07:1) & $40.66/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.07:1) price levels.

SPTL, the SPDR Barclays Long Term Treasury ETF has fallen -10.5% over the past year, dropping -16.85% from their 52-week high in August of 2022, but has regained +7.41% from their 52-week low in October of 2022 (ex-distributions).

Their RSI is trending towards oversold levels at 36.01, with a bearish reading also coming from their MACD.

Volumes were below average during a week of declines, as prices on Monday were unable to overcome the resistance level set by the 10 & 50 day moving averages & broke down through the 200 day moving average as well.

Friday’s gravestone doji implies that the market views there being more pain on the way for SPTL, as they try to establish a floor in the coming week.

While they pay a 3.03% distribution yield, it would be wise to check into the costs of hedges on any bullish days in the coming weeks to see if there are any discounts on insurance against losses.

SPTL has support at the $28.54 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.47:1), $28.49 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.47:1), $28.46 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.47:1) & $27.86/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.64:1), with resistance at the $29.00 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.14:1), $29.57 (200 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.14:1), $29.62 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.14:1) & $29.82/share (50 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.14:1) price levels.

RING, the iShares MSCI Global Gold Miners ETF has advanced +10.5% over the past year, but has fallen -19.1% from their 52-week high in May of 2023, while recovering +35.65% from their 52-week low in September of 2022 (ex-distributions).

Their RSI is on the oversold end of neutral at 40.98, but their MACD is flashing signs of a bearishness in the coming days.

Volumes were below average all of last week, with the exception of on Friday, a day where prices were caught between support from the 200 day moving average & resistance overhead from the 10 day moving average & candle formed a harami pattern with Thursday’s candle, with the prices opening & closing close to the bottom of the day’s range.

Wednesday’s candle was a bearish engulfing candle, which implies that there are further declines in store for RING in the near-term.

While they pay a 2.17% distribution yield to long-term shareholders, market participants with a position in RING would be wise to look for hedges as protection from additional declines.

RING has support at the $22.66 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.18:1), $22.64 (200 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.18:1), $22.45 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.18:1) & $22.00/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.18:1), with resistance at the $22.90 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.18:1), $23.01 (10 Day Moving Average; Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.26:1), $23.06 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.26:1) & $23.18/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.26:1) price levels.

Tying It All Together

Monday kicks off with Wholesale Inventories reported at 10 am, followed by Consumer Credit at 3 pm.

Also on Monday, PriceSmart & WD-40 are set to report earnings.

On Tuesday we get the NFIB Optimism Index reading at 6 am & there are no earnings reports scheduled.

Wednesday is the much anticipated Consumer Price Index, Core CPI, CPI Year-over-Year & Core CPI Year-over-Year at 8:30 am, followed by the Fed Beige Book at 2pm, with earnings reports due to AngioDynamics & MillerKnoll.

On Thursday morning we get the Initial Jobless Claims, Producer Price Index, Core PPI, PPI Year-over-Year & Core PPI Year-over-Year data, all reported at 8:30 am.

Thursday’s earnings include PepsiCo, Delta Airlines, Conagra, Fastenal, Progressive & Washington Federal.

Friday the week winds down with Import Price Index & Import Price Index Minus Fuel data at 8:30 am & Consumer Sentiment reported at 10 am.

JPMorgan Chase, BlackRock, Citigroup, State Street, United Health Group & Wells Fargo are all due to report earnings on Friday.

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM, DIA, SOXL, BRZU, DXJ, PXJ, PDBC, EZA, SPTL, or RING AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***