The VIX closed at 16.13, indicating an implied one day move of +/-1.02% & an implied one month move of +/-4.66% for the S&P 500.
Highest Technical Rated S&P 500 Components Per 1/3/2024’s Close:
1 – PLTR
2 – TSLA
3 – VST
4 – UAL
5 – AVGO
6 – TPR
7 – AXON
8 – ANET
9 – FTNT
10 – FOX
Lowest Technical Rated S&P 500 Components Per 1/3/2024’s Close:
1 – CE
2 – MRNA
3 – SMCI
4 – NUE
5 – MCHP
6 – DG
7 – EL
8 – DOW
9 – CVS
10 – REGN
Highest Volume Rated S&P 500 Components Per 1/3/2024’s Close:
1 – AJG
2 – KR
3 – TAP
4 – CHTR
5 – CEG
6 – MOS
7 – STLD
8 – VST
9 – ADBE
10 – AKAM
Lowest Volume Rated S&P 500 Components Per 1/3/2024’s Close:
1 – WDAY
2 – APO
3 – ANSS
4 – ICE
5 – BX
6 – DOV
7 – ERIE
8 – KVUE
9 – AXON
10 – SMCI
Highest Technical Rated ETFs Per 1/3/2024’s Close:
1 – TSLR
2 – TSLT
3 – TSLL
4 – EVAV
5 – TSL
6 – GXLM
7 – BITW
8 – BTFX
9 – DTSRF
10 – BITX
Lowest Technical Rated ETFs Per 1/3/2024’s Close:
1 – TSLZ
2 – TSDD
3 – TSLQ
4 – MSOX
5 – CNBS
6 – NVD
7 – SARK
8 – NVDQ
9 – TSLS
10 – MRNY
Highest Volume Rated ETFs Per 1/3/2024’s Close:
1 – LQDI
2 – JNEU
3 – SBND
4 – SPAM
5 – MDCP
6 – GCLN
7 – BTRN
8 – FFSM
9 – SSXU
10 – XHYI
Lowest Volume Rated ETFs Per 1/3/2024’s Close:
1 – BBEM
2 – USCA
3 – AUGW
4 – USCL
5 – AUGT
6 – SEPW
7 – QMAG
8 – XFLX
9 – DRAI
10 – ESMV
Highest Technical Rated General Stocks Per 1/3/2024’s Close:
1 – AMPE
2 – ALUR
3 – BBIG
4 – NITO
5 – RGTI
6 – UPHL
7 – QNCCF
8 – LAES
9 – CTM
10 – QUBT
Lowest Technical Rated General Stocks Per 1/3/2024’s Close:
1 – NMRA
2 – DNMR
3 – GOEV
4 – AZREF
5 – CRKN
6 – EQC
7 – UPC
8 – SOBR
9 – LICN
10 – ADD
Highest Volume Rated General Stocks Per 1/3/2024’s Close:
1 – OUT
2 – ACON
3 – MFI
4 – SCPX
5 – CYCC
6 – TGL
7 – FCUV
8 – MAMA
9 – SYPR
10 – PSNYW
Lowest Volume Rated General Stocks Per 1/3/2024’s Close:
1 – UPHL
2 – FLMMF
3 – PSYTF
4 – CYAN
5 – CRSXF
6 – GPTRF
7 – CNNEF
8 – DTEGF
9 – PGTK
10 – HINKF
*** THE LIST ABOVE IS STRICTLY FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES – I MAY OR MAY NOT HAVE OR INITIATE A LONG, SHORT, OR LONG/SHORT POSITION IN ANY NAME ABOVE AT ANY TIME ***
The VIX closed at 17.93, indicating an implied one day move of +/-1.13% & an implied one month move of +/-5.18% for the S&P 500.
Highest Technical Rated S&P 500 Components Per 1/2/2025’s Close:
1 – PLTR
2 – UAL
3 – TSLA
4 – AVGO
5 – VST
6 – TPR
7 – AXON
8 – CCL
9 – EQT
10 – FOX
Lowest Technical Rated S&P 500 Components Per 1/2/2025’s Close:
1 – SMCI
2 – CE
3 – MRNA
4 – NUE
5 – MCHP
6 – CVS
7 – DG
8 – REGN
9 – INTC
10 – DOW
Highest Volume Rated S&P 500 Components Per 1/2/2025’s Close:
1 – TT
2 – CEG
3 – NI
4 – PPG
5 – IRM
6 – URI
7 – AJG
8 – EQT
9 – YUM
10 – VRSN
Lowest Volume Rated S&P 500 Components Per 1/2/2025’s Close:
1 – SMCI
2 – HUM
3 – ERIE
4 – MCK
5 – UHS
6 – HSY
7 – RJF
8 – J
9 – IQV
10 – BG
Highest Technical Rated ETFs Per 1/2/2025’s Close:
1 – KLIP
2 – TSLR
3 – TSLT
4 – TESL
5 – TSLL
6 – BITW
7 – TSL
8 – BTFX
9 – BITX
10 – BZQ
Lowest Technical Rated ETFs Per 1/2/2025’s Close:
1 – MSOX
2 – TSLZ
3 – TSDD
4 – TSLQ
5 – CNBS
6 – KORU
7 – NVD
8 – SARK
9 – MRNY
10 – NAIL
Highest Volume Rated ETFs Per 1/2/2025’s Close:
1 – JANP
2 – LJAN
3 – JDVI
4 – XBJA
5 – JANH
6 – LFEQ
7 – NDVG
8 – OVB
9 – UEVM
10 – ARCM
Lowest Volume Rated ETFs Per 1/2/2025’s Close:
1 – WTV
2 – USCL
3 – ZTRE
4 – CVRD
5 – SEPW
6 – GSID
7 – OPTZ
8 – MCSE
9 – NDOW
10 – SIXL
Highest Technical Rated General Stocks Per 1/2/2025’s Close:
1 – QNCCF
2 – RGTI
3 – LAES
4 – CTM
5 – QUBT
6 – LEEEF
7 – QMCO
8 – PDYN
9 – GRRR
10 – KULR
Lowest Technical Rated General Stocks Per 1/2/2025’s Close:
1 – LTRPB
2 – NMRA
3 – GOEV
4 – EFSH
5 – CRKN
6 – RNWEY
7 – CYN
8 – EQC
9 – UPC
10 – LICN
Highest Volume Rated General Stocks Per 1/2/2025’s Close:
1 – TWO
2 – AEI
3 – MBIO
4 – BGLC
5 – TXMD
6 – NITO
7 – SPCB
8 – REVB
9 – CTCX
10 – XPON
Lowest Volume Rated General Stocks Per 1/2/2025’s Close:
1 – BARUF
2 – IDWM
3 -BONXF
4 – CNNEF
5 – SROYF
6 – LIANY
7 – MTLFF
8 – DMXCF
9 – RNGE
10 – BGM
*** THE LIST ABOVE IS STRICTLY FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES – I MAY OR MAY NOT HAVE OR INITIATE A LONG, SHORT, OR LONG/SHORT POSITION IN ANY NAME ABOVE AT ANY TIME ***
It’s been a volatile month & a half since our last volume sentiment check in, which has provided some retests of the new higher price levels that the major index ETFs have traded at.
Yesterday, the VIX closed at 17.35, indicating an implied one day move of +/-1.09% & an implied one month move of +/-5.01% for the S&P 500, as expectations for near-term volatility have been amped up.
This makes it a great time to check in & see how the major four index ETFs have traded at from a volume sentiment perspective at each price level they’ve covered in recent history.
This will provide an understanding of how prices may behave when certain support & resistance levels are reached & tested again in the future.
Each section below contains a view of each index ETF’s chart (for a technical breakdown of each ETF’s chart please see this past weekend’s market review note), as well as a list of their current one year support & resistance levels with the volume sentiment noted beneath it on the table.
There is an additional table beneath this table with each price level’s sentiment, as well as a typed text version below that is able to be copied & pasted.
Note that “NULL, 0:0*” values denote areas that each name has traded at but with limited volume data to work with from a comparison standpoint in terms of creating a ratio of buyers:sellers (or vice versa).
Also, prices that do have a ratio of Buyers:Sellers (Sellers:Buyers) where the denominator is 0 are denoted with an asterisk “*” as well.
In the written lists of the price levels & volume sentiments the price levels that contain support & resistance levels are marked in BOLD.
Recall that at price extremes such as the highs that we have recently hit there will tend to be skewed data due to the small sample size & factor that into how you interpret each price level’s reported sentiment.
This is intended to serve as an additional tool, similar to a barometer to use during your due diligence process & is not meant to replace doing your own research & is not financial advice.
Price Level:Volume Sentiment Analysis For SPY, The SPDR S&P 500 ETF
SPY ETF – SPDR S&P 500 ETF’s Technical Performance Over The Past Year
SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF has been giving back its post U.S. Election gains for much of the last 6 weeks.
The middle & end of December saw some elevated volume, but for the most part market participation has still be dramatically muted since April of 2024 vs. previous years.
With their 10 day moving average bearish down on the 50 DMA, there look to be more near-term declines on the horizon, with sparse support levels near their current price.
With this in mind, it is worth looking at how investors have behaved over the past few years at each price level to see if it lends clues into how they may choose to behave again in the near-future.
Below is a list of the volume sentiments at each price level SPY has traded at over the past 2-3 years.
SPY ETF’s Price Level:Volume Sentiment Over The Past ~2 Years At Their Past Year’s Support/Resistance Levels
SPY ETF’s Price Level:Volume Sentiment Over The Past ~2 Years
Price Level:Volume Sentiment For SPY ETF Over The Past ~2 Years
SPY ETF’s Price Level:Volume Sentiment Over The Past ~2 Years
SPY ETF’s Price Level:Volume Sentiment Over The Past ~2 Years
$610 – NULL – 0:0*, +4.08% From Current Price Level
$605 – Buyers – 0.8:0*, +3.23% From Current Price Level
$600 – Even – 1:1, +2.38% From Current Price Level
$595 – Buyers – 2.5:1, +1.52% From Current Price Level
$590 – Buyers – 4.2:1, +0.67% From Current Price Level – 10 & 50 Day Moving Averages**
$585 – Buyers – 1.4:0*, -0.18% From Current Price Level – Current Price Level*
$580 – Sellers – 2.1:1, -1.04% From Current Price Level
$575 – Buyers – 1.08:1, -1.89% From Current Price Level
$570 – Buyers – 5.33:1. -2.74% From Current Price Level
$565 – Sellers – 1.53:1, -3.6% From Current Price Level
$560 – Buyers – 0.8:0*, -4.45% From Current Price Level
$555 – Buyers – 3.44:1, -5.3% From Current Price Level
$550 – Buyers – 1.25:1, -6.16% From Current Price Level – 200 Day Moving Average*
$545 – Sellers – 1.06:1, -7.01% From Current Price Level
$540 – Buyers – 1.58:1, -7.86% From Current Price Level
$535 – Sellers – 1.36:1, -8.72% From Current Price Level
$530 – Buyers – 1.5:1, -9.57% From Current Price Level
$525 – Buyers – 1.6:1, -10.42% From Current Price Level
$520 – Buyers – 2.08:1, -11.27% From Current Price Level
$515 – Buyers – 1.33:1, -12.13% From Current Price Level
$510 – Buyers – 1.9:1, -12.98% From Current Price Level
$505 – Sellers – 1.65:1, -13.83% From Current Price Level
$500 – Buyers – 1.8:1, -14.69% From Current Price Level
$496 – Sellers – 2.9:0*, -15.37% From Current Price Level
$492 – Sellers – 1.19:1, -16.05% From Current Price Level
$488 – Buyers – 1.45:1, -16.73% From Current Price Level
$484 – Sellers – 1.67:1, -17.42% From Current Price Level
$480 – Buyers – 2.2:1, -18.1% From Current Price Level
$476 – Buyers – 2.33:1, -18.78% From Current Price Level
$472 – NULL – 0:0*, -19.46% From Current Price Level
$468 – Buyers – 1.95:1, -20.15% From Current Price Level
$464 – Buyers – 1.35:1, -20.83% From Current Price Level
$460 – Sellers – 2.33:1, -21.51% From Current Price Level
$456 – Buyers – 0.5:0*, -22.19% From Current Price Level
$452 – Buyers – 1:0*, -22.88% From Current Price Level
$448 – Buyers – 2:1, -23.56% From Current Price Level
$444 – Buyers – 2.21:1, -24.24% From Current Price Level
$440 – Buyers – 2:1, -24.92% From Current Price Level
$436 – Sellers – 1.09:1, -25.61% From Current Price Level
$432 – Buyers – 1.24:1, -26.29% From Current Price Level
$428 – Sellers – 1.21:1, -26.97% From Current Price Level
$424 – Buyers – 1.38:1, -27.65% From Current Price Level
$420 – Sellers – 1.38:1, -28.34% From Current Price Level
$416 – Buyers – 1.34:1, -29.02% From Current Price Level
$412 – Sellers – 1.11:1, -29.7% From Current Price Level
$408 – Buyers – 2.65:1, -30.38% From Current Price Level
$404 – Buyers – 1.35:1, -31.07% From Current Price Level
$400 – Buyers – 1.23:1, -31.75% From Current Price Level
$396 – Sellers – 1.28:1, -32.43% From Current Price Level
$392 – Sellers – 1.33:1, -33.11% From Current Price Level
$388 – Buyers – 2.14:1, -33.8% From Current Price Level
$384 – Buyers – 1.88:1, -34.48% From Current Price Level
$380 – Sellers – 1.29:1, -35.16% From Current Price Level
$376 – Sellers – 2.61:1, -35.84% From Current Price Level
$372 – Sellers – 1.95:1, -36.53% From Current Price Level
$368 – Sellers – 1.93:1, -37.21% From Current Price Level
$364 – Sellers – 1.16:1, -37.89% From Current Price Level
$360 – Sellers – 2.6:1, -38.57% From Current Price Level
$356 – Sellers – 2.53:1, -39.26% From Current Price Level
$352 – Buyers – 2.5:1, -39.94% From Current Price Level
$348 – Sellers – 3.7:0*, -40.62% From Current Price Level
$344 – Sellers – 3:0*, -41.3% From Current Price Level
$340 – NULL – 0:0*, -41.99% From Current Price Level
Price Level:Volume Sentiment Analysis For QQQ, The Invesco QQQ Trust ETF
QQQ ETF – Invesco QQQ Trust ETF’s Technical Performance Over The Past Year
QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF has continued to trade in a similar manner as SPY, although their recent volumes have been lower as there is a bit of caution in the air around the tech-heavy index.
Their recent declines have caused there to be less one year support levels than at our last check in, which will make it all the more important to have an understanding of how they’ve behaved at each price level previously.
Below is a list of their support & resistance levels from a one year chart, and their volume sentiment at each price level they’ve traded at over the past ~2 years.
QQQ ETF’s Price Level:Volume Sentiment Over The Past ~2 Years At Their One Year Support & Resistance Levels
QQQ ETF’s Price Level:Volume Sentiment Over The Past ~2 Years
Price Level:Volume Sentiment For QQQ ETF Over The Past ~2 Years
QQQ ETF’s Price Level:Volume Sentiment Over The Past ~2 Years
QQQ ETF’s Price Level:Volume Sentiment Over The Past ~2 Years
$540 – NULL – 0:0*, +5.63% From Current Price Level
$535 – Buyers – 0.7:0*, +4.65% From Current Price Level
$530 – Sellers – 0.6:0*, +3.67% From Current Price Level
$525 – Buyers – 2.86:1, +2.69% From Current Price Level
$520 – Sellers – 1.18:1, +1.72% From Current Price Level – 10 Day Moving Average*
$515 – Sellers – 1.33:1, +0.74% From Current Price Level
$510 – Sellers – 1.38:1, -0.24% From Current Price Level – Current Price Level*
$505 – Buyers – 2.6:1, -1.22% From Current Price Level – 50 Day Moving Average*
$500 – Buyers – 3.22:1, -2.2% From Current Price Level
$496 – Buyers – 2:0*, -2.98% From Current Price Level
$492 – Buyers – 4.13:1, -3.76% From Current Price Level
$488 – Buyers – 1.57:1, -4.54% From Current Price Level
$484 – Buyers – 1.88:1, -5.33% From Current Price Level
$480 – Buyers – 1.24:1, -6.11% From Current Price Level
$476 – Sellers – 1.52:1, -6.89% From Current Price Level
$472 – Buyers – 1.52:1, -7.67% From Current Price Level – 200 Day Moving Average*
$468 – Sellers – 1.23:1, -8.46% From Current Price Level
$464 – Buyers – 1.6:0*, -9.24% From Current Price Level
$460 – Buyers – 1.32:1, -10.02% From Current Price Level
$456 – Sellers – 1.89:1, -10.8% From Current Price Level
$452 – Buyers – 2.5:1, -11.59% From Current Price Level
$448 – Sellers – 1.39:1, -12.37% From Current Price Level
$444 – Sellers – 1.4:1, -13.15% From Current Price Level
$440 – Buyers – 4.22:1, -13.93% From Current Price Level
$436 – Buyers – 1.06:1, -14.72% From Current Price Level
$432 – Sellers – 2:1, -15.5% From Current Price Level
$428 – Buyers – 1.42:1, -16.28% From Current Price Level
$424 – Sellers – 1.06:1, -17.06% From Current Price Level
$420 – Sellers – 2:1, -17.85% From Current Price Level
$416 – Buyers – 4:1, -18.63% From Current Price Level
$412 – Sellers – 2.6:0*, -19.41% From Current Price Level
$408 – Buyers – 4.2:1, -20.19% From Current Price Level
$404 – Buyers – 2.2:1, -20.97% From Current Price Level
$400 – Buyers – 1.81:1, -21.76% From Current Price Level
$396 – Sellers – 2.1:0*, -22.54% From Current Price Level
$392 – Buyers – 1.5:1, -23.32% From Current Price Level
$388 – Buyers – 1:0*, -24.1% From Current Price Level
$384 – Buyers – 1.49:1, -24.89% From Current Price Level
$380 – Buyers – 1.89:1, -25.67% From Current Price Level
$376 – Buyers – 3.86:1, -26.45% From Current Price Level
$372 – Buyers – 1.2:1, -27.23% From Current Price Level
$368 – Sellers – 1.3:1, -28.02% From Current Price Level
$364 – Buyers – 1.66:1, -28.8% From Current Price Level
$360 – Buyer s- 1.17:1, -29.58% From Current Price Level
$356 – Sellers – 1.13:1, -30.36% From Current Price Level
$352 – Buyers – 1.22:1, -31.15% From Current Price Level
$348 – Buyers – 1.14:1, -31.93% From Current Price Level
$344 – Buyers – 1.24:1, -32.71% From Current Price Level
$340 – Sellers – 1.17:1, -33.49% From Current Price Level
$336 – NULL – 0:0*, -34.28% From Current Price Level
$332 – Buyers – 3:1, -35.06% From Current Price Level
$328 – Sellers – 1:0*, -35.84% From Current Price Level
$324 – Even – 1:1, -36.62% From Current Price Level
$320 – Buyers – 4:1, -37.41% From Current Price Level
$316 – Buyers – 1.96:1, -38.19% From Current Price Level
$312 – Sellers – 1.76:1, -38.97% From Current Price Level
$308 – Buyers – 1.82:1, -39.75% From Current Price Level
$304 – Buyers – 3.55:1, -40.54% From Current Price Level
$300 – Sellers – 1.28:1, -41.32% From Current Price Level
$296 – Sellers – 1.63:1, -42.1% From Current Price Level
$292 – Buyers – 3.36:1, -42.88% From Current Price Level
$288 – Buyers – 1.27:1, -43.67% From Current Price Level
$284 – Buyers – 1.16:1, -44.45% From Current Price Level
$280 – Sellers – 1.4:1, -45.23% From Current Price Level
$276 – Buyers – 1.53:1, -46.01% From Current Price Level
$272 – Sellers – 1.59:1, -46.79% From Current Price Level
$268 – Sellers – 1.33:1, -47.58% From Current Price Level
$264 – Buyers – 1.5:1, -48.36% From Current Price Level
$260 – Sellers – 1.18:1, -49.14% From Current Price Level
$256 – Sellers – 8:0*, -49.92% From Current Price Level
$252 – NULL – 0:0*, -50.71% From Current Price Level
Price Level:Volume Sentiment Analysis For IWM, The iShares Russell 2000 ETF
IWM ETF – iShares Russell 2000 ETF’s Technical Performance Over The Past Year
IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF has seen steeper declines than SPY or QQQ since November, but has traded at more consistent volumes compared to a year ago than the former two index ETFs.
The small cap index’s 10 day moving average recently crossed bearishly through their 50 day moving average & prices have consolidated 3.67% above their 200 DMA’s support level.
Given their price’s proximity to the long-term trend line, the information below is important to know in the event of a retest of their support levels.
IWM ETF’s Price Level:Volume Sentiment Over The Past ~2 Years At Their One Year Support/Resistance Levels
IWM ETF’s Price Level:Volume Sentiment Over The Past ~2 Years
Price Level:Volume Sentiment Over The Past ~2 Years For IWM ETF
$244 – NULL – 0:0*, +10.52% From Current Price Level
$240 – Buyers – 4.67:1, +8.71% From Current Price Level
$236 – Buyers – 1.67:1, +6.9% From Current Price Level
$232 – Sellers – 3.67:1, +5.09% From Current Price Level
$228 – Buyers – 5:1, +3.27% From Current Price Level – 50 Day Moving Average*
$224 – Sellers – 3:1, +1.46% From Current Price Level
$220 – Buyers – 1.92:1, -0.35% From Current Price Level – Current Price Level, 10 Day Moving Average**
$216 – Buyers – 1.66:1, -2.16% From Current Price Level
$212 – Sellers – 1.29:1, -3.97% From Current Price Level – 200 Day Moving Average *
$208 – Buyers – 2.64:1, -5.78% From Current Price Level
$204 – Buyers – 1.21:1, -7.6% From Current Price Level
$200 – Buyers – 1.54:1, -9.41% From Current Price Level
$198 – Sellers – 1.53:1, -10.31% From Current Price Level
$196 – Buyers – 2.5:1, -11.22% From Current Price Level
$194 – Buyers – 1.15:1, -12.13% From Current Price Level
$192 – Sellers – 1.2:1, -13.03% From Current Price Level
$190 – Sellers – 2.29:1, -13.94% From Current Price Level
$188 – Buyers – 1.64:1, -14.84% From Current Price Level
$186 – Sellers – 1.44:1, -15.75% From Current Price Level
$184 – Buyers – 2.8:1, -16.66% From Current Price Level
$182 – Buyers – 1.67:1, -17.56% From Current Price Level
$180 – Buyers – 1.17:1, -18.47% From Current Price Level
$178 – Sellers – 1.78:1, -19.37% From Current Price Level
$176 – Buyers – 1.28:1, -20.28% From Current Price Level
$174 – Buyers – 2.08:1, -21.18% From Current Price Level
$172 – Buyers – 1.24:1, -22.09% From Current Price Level
$170 – Buyers – 1.39:1, -23% From Current Price Level
$168 – Sellers – 2.39:1, -23.9% From Current Price Level
$166 – Sellers – 2.6:1, -24.81% From Current Price Level
$164 – Sellers – 0.4:0*, -25.71% From Current Price Level
$162 – Buyers – 1.18:1, -26.62% From Current Price Level
$160 – Even – 1:1, -27.53% From Current Price Level
$158 – NULL – 0:0*, -28.43% From Current Price Level
Price Level:Volume Sentiment Analysis For DIA, The SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF
DIA ETF – SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF’s Technical Performance Over The Past Year
DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF has continued to trade like IWM, as the blue chip index & small cap index have shared similar trading characteristics over the past year.
This may not continue as volatility heats up due to the differences between the components of each index, making the tables below important for assessing the strength of support levels in the near-term.
DIA ETF’s Price Level:Volume Sentiment Over The Past 3-4 Years At Their Past Year’s Support & Resistance Levels
Price Level:Volume Sentiment For DIA ETF Over The Past 3-4 Years
DIA ETF’s Price Level:Volume Sentiment Over The Past 3-4 Years
DIA ETF’s Price Level:Volume Sentiment Over The Past 3-4 Years
$452 – NULL – 0:0*, +6.23% From Current Price Level
$448 – Buyers – 0.4:0*, +5.29% From Current Price Level
$444 – Sellers – 1.25:1, +4.35% From Current Price Level
$440 – Buyers – 1.67:1, +3.41% From Current Price Level
$436 – Buyers – 1.6:1, +2.47% From Current Price Level
$432 – Buyers – 2.67:1, +1.53% From Current Price Level – 50 Day Moving Average*
$428 – Buyers – 5:1, +0.59% From Current Price Level – 10 Day Moving Average*
$424 – Sellers – 3:1, -0.35% From Current Price Level – Current Price Level*
$420 – Buyers – 2.17:1, -1.29% From Current Price Level
$416 – Sellers – 1.13:1, -2.23% From Current Price Level
$412 – Buyers – 1.67:1, -3.17% From Current Price Level
$408 – Buyers – 10:1, -4.11% From Current Price Level
$404 – Buyers – 2.4:1, -5.05% From Current Price Level – 200 Day Moving Average*
$400 – Seller s- 1.17:1, -5.99% From Current Price Level
$396 – Buyers – 9:1, -6.93% From Current Price Level
$392 – Buyers – 2.67:1, -7.87% From Current Price Level
$388 – Buyers – 1.55:1, -8.81% From Current Price Level
$384 – Buyers – 1.36:1, -9.75% From Current Price Level
$380 – Sellers – 1.33:1, -10.69% From Current Price Level
$376 – Buyers – 1.46:1, -11.63% From Current Price Level
$372 – Buyers – 1.55:1, -12.57% From Current Price Level
$368 – Buyers – 4:1, -13.51% From Current Price Level
$364 – Buyers – 1.1:1, -14.45% From Current Price Level
$360 – NULL – 0:0*, -15.39% From Current Price Level
$356 – Buyers – 0.8:0*, -16.33% From Current Price Level
$352 – Sellers – 2.33:1, -17.27% From Current Price Level
$348 – NULL – 0:0*, -18.21% From Current Price Level
$344 – Buyers – 2.89:1, -19.15% From Current Price Level
$340 – Sellers – 1.03:1, -20.09% From Current Price Level
$336 – Buyers – 1.44:1, -21.03% From Current Price Level
$332 – Buyers – 1.54:1, -21.97% From Current Price Level
$328 – Buyers – 1.27:1, -22.91% From Current Price Level
$324 – Sellers – 1.09:1, -23.85% From Current Price Level
$320 – Sellers – 1.02:1, -24.79% From Current Price Level
$316 – Sellers – 1.32:1, -25.73% From Current Price Level
$312 – Sellers – 1.3:1, -26.67% From Current Price Level
$308 – Sellers – 1.38:1, -27.61% From Current Price Level
$304 – Buyers – 1.3:1, -28.55% From Current Price Level
$300 – Buyers – 1.36:1, -29.49% From Current Price Level
$296 – Buyers – 1.33:1, -30.43% From Current Price Level
$292 – Buyers – 1.26:1. -31.37% From Current Price Level
$288 – Sellers – 1.5:1, -32.31% From Current Price Level
$284 – Buyers – 1.08:1, -33.25% From Current Price Level
$280 – Even – 1:1, -34.2% From Current Price Level
$276 – Sellers – 1.4:1, -35.14% From Current Price Level
$272 – Buyers – 1.17:1, -36.08% From Current Price Level
$268 – Buyers – 2:1, -37.02% From Current Price Level
$264 – Sellers – 1.67:1, -37.96% From Current Price Level
$260 – Buyers – 2.25:1, -38.9% From Current Price Level
$256 – Sellers – 2.33:1, -39.84% From Current Price Level
$252 – Buyers – 2:1, -40.78% From Current Price Level
$248 – Buyers – 0.2:0*, -41.72% From Current Price Level
$244 – Sellers – 3:1, -42.66% From Current Price Level
$240 – NULL – 0:0*, -43.6% From Current Price Level
*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM OR DIA AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***
The VIX closed at 17.35, indicating an implied one day move of +/-1.09% & an implied one month move of +/-5.01% for the S&P 500.
Highest Technical Rated S&P 500 Components Per 12/31/2024’s Close:
1 – PLTR
2 – TSLA
3 – UAL
4 – AVGO
5 – TPR
6 – AXON
7 – CCL
8 – VST
9 – EXPE
10 – RCL
Lowest Technical Rated S&P 500 Components Per 12/31/2024’s Close:
1 – SMCI
2 – CE
3 – MRNA
4 – ENPH
5 – MCHP
6 – MU
7 – NUE
8 – CVS
9 – INTC
10 – REGN
Highest Volume Rated S&P 500 Components Per 12/31/2024’s Close:
1 – TSN
2 – VRSN
3 – PKG
4 – NRG
5 – DOV
6 – EQR
7 – VICI
8 – PLD
9 – FICO
10 – O
Lowest Volume Rated S&P 500 Components Per 12/31/2024’s Close:
1 – HSIC
2 – SMCI
3 – JNPR
4 – WAT
5 – SYY
6 – SYF
7 – LVS
8 – GM
9 – KEYS
10 – FOXA
Highest Technical Rated ETFs Per 12/31/2024’s Close:
1 – TSLR
2 – TSLT
3 – TSLL
4 – VCAR
5 – TSL
6 – BITW
7 – BZQ
8 – BTFX
9 – WANT
10 – WEBL
Lowest Technical Rated ETFs Per 12/31/2024’s Close:
1 – MSOX
2 – TSLZ
3 – TSDD
4 – TSLQ
5 – CNBS
6 – KORU
7 – MEXX
8 – BCHG
9 – TSLS
10 – MRNY
Highest Volume Rated ETFs Per 12/31/2024’s Close:
1 – JANT
2 – JANW
3 – AUGT
4 – OOSP
5 – SHUS
6 – SEPW
7 – SRHR
8 – AUGW
9 – FELV
10 – FBCG
Lowest Volume Rated ETFs Per 12/31/2024’s Close:
1 – USCA
2 – GSID
3 – XAUG
4 – PCRB
5 – FDGR
6 – QMAG
7 – RAYE
8 – GAUG
9 – ASIA
10 – FDCE
Highest Technical Rated General Stocks Per 12/31/2024’s Close:
1 – COEP
2 – OST
3 – QNCCF
4 – CTM
5 – RGTI
6 – NUKK
7 – QUBT
8 – LAES
9 – KULR
10 – PDYN
Lowest Technical Rated General Stocks Per 12/31/2024’s Close:
1 – EFSH
2 – GOEV
3 – CYN
4 – UPC
5 – CRKN
6 – AILE
7 – EQC
8 – LICN
9 – MGOL
10 – QTTB
Highest Volume Rated General Stocks Per 12/31/2024’s Close:
1 – APM
2 – VRME
3 – ONCO
4 – OUT
5 – ITP
6 – FLYE
7 – NCI
8 – NEXA
9 – ABTS
10 – BHAT
Lowest Volume Rated General Stocks Per 12/31/2024’s Close:
1 – BNPQF
2 – SMREF
3 – SAGGF
4 – IGOT
5 – MTLFF
6 – DBIN
7 – OMTK
8 – GRCMF
9 – PFHO
10 – CNNEF
*** THE LIST ABOVE IS STRICTLY FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES – I MAY OR MAY NOT HAVE OR INITIATE A LONG, SHORT, OR LONG/SHORT POSITION IN ANY NAME ABOVE AT ANY TIME ***
SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF added +0.65% last week, while the VIX closed at 15.95, indicating an implied one day move of +/-1.01% & a one month implied move of +/-4.61%.
SPY ETF – SPDR S&P 500 ETF’s Technical Performance Over The Past Year
Their RSI just broke bearishly through the neutral 50 level & sits currently at 49.32, while their MACD has resumed its bearish descent.
Volumes were -14.68% lower than the prior year’s average (49,277,500 vs. 57,755,675), which is notable as Friday’s declining session had the highest volume of the shortened holiday week.
Monday continued the short-term reversal that was set into motion with the prior Friday’s breakout above the 50 day moving average’s resistance.
It should be noted though that the fragility noted in last week’s note was still in play on Monday, as the session opened above the 50 DMA’s support, but temporarily dipped below it, indicating that there was still downside appetite among investors, despite SPY powering higher to close close to the 10 DMA’s resistance.
Tuesday opened on a gap up to just below the 10 DMA, before powering higher to close above it, however the volume was weak, which can be attributed to the shortened trading session.
Christmas was Wednesday so there was no trading, but Thursday signaled that weakness was setting in.
Thursday SPY opened slightly lower, tested down to midway down Tuesday’s candle’s real body, before testing slightly above its close & settling marginally up for the day.
This set up Friday’s opening gap down to complete an evening star bearish pattern, as Friday opened just above the 10 DMA’s support, before breaking all the way down to the 50 DMA & settling down for the day on the week’s highest volume.
As noted in last week’s market note, the relationship between price & the 10 & 50 day moving averages will still be an area to focus on heading into the new year.
While volumes last week were higher relative to the weekly volumes of the past few months, they still were not high enough to drive a meaningful upward movement that would gather any traction.
Without seeing a meaningful increase in upside volume the evening star pattern will be in main focus moving into this week & next, particularly given how much profit taking took place on Friday.
As of writing this the 50 DMA’s support broke down already, leaving less support levels between SPY’s price & the long term trend (200 DMA).
Should prices test the $580-584.99 price level they should have strong support given that there are three touch-points in that zone & that it has historically been dominated by Buyers at a rate of 1.86:1.
Should that break down the $570-579.99 price zones will be interesting to watch, as there are no formal support levels in that range, but there is Buyer dominated support at $570-574.99/share at a rate of 4.5:1.
If that window breaks down there is no support until $565.99/share, which occurs in a Seller dominated zone at a rate of 2:1 historically over the past ~2 years.
Declining to that support level would be a ~-5% decline from Friday’s close, and would open up SPY to further near-term declines based on support levels, which will be examined in more detail in next week’s note.
SPY has support at the $590.88 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $584.15 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.86:1), $581.90 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.86:1) & $580.91/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.86:1) price levels & resistance at the $596.11 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $598.16 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $602.48 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $607.03/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.
SPY ETF’s Price Level:Volume Sentiment Over The Past ~2 Years
QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF advanced +0.75% last week, as the tech heavy index was the most favored of the major four index ETFs.
QQQ ETF – Invesco QQQ Trust ETF’s Technical Performance Over The Past Year
Their RSI is bearishly approaching the neutral 50 mark & sits currently at 53.17, while their MACD is continuing bearishly lower.
Volumes were -32.54% lower than the prior year’s average level (25,052,500 vs. 37,137,143), as market participants were very cautious to approach the tech heavy index.
Much like last week, QQQ’s chart is quite similar this week to SPY’s, as Monday kicked off continuing the ascent of Friday’s session on an opening gap up that temporarily retraced into Friday’s range, before climbing to close the day higher.
Tuesday opened on a gap up that opened near the 10 day moving average’s resistance & managed to break out above it to close higher on the day, but on the lowest volume of the week, indicating that there was waning sentiment among market participants.
Thursday was also a low volume session that opened lower, tested midway through Tuesday’s trading range, before testing slightly higher & closing above its open, but still as a declining session.
The indecision shown by the spinning top candle & low volume set up QQQ for Friday’s gap down session to complete the evening star pattern, as Friday opened just above the 10 day moving average’s support before breaking down through it & testing lower than Monday’s opening price for QQQ.
While it managed to close above Monday’s closing price, there was a big warning sign flashed last week, which will bring all attention to QQQ’s price & the relationship between it & the 10 & 50 day moving averages.
Should the support of the 50 DMA break down for QQQ, as per Friday’s closing price levels there was only a -7.11% spread between the two support levels, which should the top one break down may indicate trouble on the horizon.
This is especially true if the $493.69/share support level breaks down, as it lies in the $492-495.99/share price zone which is the strongest Buyer:Seller zone for QQQ, where Buyers have historically exceeded Sellers 17.25:1.
If this breaks down then there is a severe reversal in sentiment, as most price action around this area has tended to result in gaps up or down around the zone, with limited trading activity within it (most of which is clearly advancing).
QQQ has support at the $514.75 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $508.89 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $508.47 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $502.00/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2:0*) price levels & resistance at the $525.37 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $531.24 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $538.28/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.
QQQ ETF’s Price Level:Volume Sentiment Over The Past ~2 Years
IWM ETF – iShares Russell 2000 ETF’s Technical Performance Over The Past Year
Their RSI is trending bearishly & currently sits at 38.47 & their MACD is still bearish, but the histogram is tapering off & it has begun to flatten out; next week will tell whether it continues lower or not.
Volumes were -28.63% lower than the previous year’s average level (22,515,000 vs. 31,547,937), as the hesitancy to buy stocks on the shortened holiday week also impacted the small cap index.
Monday opened slightly lower on the strongest volume of the week, but the upper & lower shadow signaled that there was a lot of appetite to both the upside & downside, but the real body being concentrated at the top of the candle indicates that there was short-term upside potential.
Tuesday opened on a gap up, tested to the downside, but managed to continue higher & closed for an advancing day, however this happened on the lowest volume of the year for IWM, signaling that there was not much strength & conviction behind the move.
Thursday confirmed that the weakness was setting in, as the session opened lower & tested lower, before rallying up to the 10 DMA’s resistance & closing just below it.
While the volume on Thursday was the second highest of the week, it was still not much to write home about & the uncertainty remained in the air.
Friday opened midway between Thursday’s range, made a run at the 10 DMA’s resistance, got rejected & the floodgates opened with IWM briefly dipping below Monday’s opening price, but recovering to still end the session lower on the day.
Small caps look to be in a bit of trouble, as Friday’s closing price would hit the 200 DMA if it declined -4.3%.
In the near-term IWM looks like an area to tread carefully around, given that their medium term trend is above the short-term trend (50 & 10 DMAs), which are both above their current price level.
While there are many support levels near their current price, they’ve also dipped below a resistance zone, which will require an uptick in volume to break through.
For the rest of the week it would be wise to watch to gain clues & insight into market participant sentiment towards IWM & the small cap names to see how things may kick off in the first month of the new year.
IWM has support at the $221.04 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2:1), $218.07 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.4:1), $216.73 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.4:1) & $214.01/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.5:1) price levels & resistance at the $223.51 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2:1), $225.20 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2:1), $225.27 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2:1) & $225.73/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2:1) price levels.
IWM ETF’s Price Level:Volume Sentiment Over The Past ~2 Years
DIA ETF – SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF’s Technical Performance Over The Past Year
Their RSI is trending bearishly further, sitting currently at 42.81, while their MACD remains bearish, but has flattened out over the past week <FINISH THIS LATER>
Volumes were -38.92% lower than the prior year’s average level (2,082,500 vs. 3,409,683), as there was a very low participation rate during the holiday week.
Monday the week kicked off on a bullish note, advancing for the day on the week’s highest volume.
Tuesday also saw gains for DIA, but on very low volume that was unable to break above the 10 DMA & the session closed in-line with it.
Thursday opened lower, before powering through the 10 DMA to test & get rejected by the 50 DMA’s resistance, but prices managed to close just beneath it.
Friday showed a rush to the exits & profits were taken after the gains of the short week, as the session opened on a gap down, tested higher to briefly break above the resistance of the 10 DMA, but ultimately closed lower on the day as a high wave spinning top candle.
Friday featured the second highest volume of the week as well, indicating that there was a great deal of bearish sentiment out there for DIA.
Heading into this week keep an eye out for any volume shifts, as that will provide clues into whether or not there will be pains or gains heading into the new year.
The chart below outlines DIA’s support & resistance levels with their volume sentiments over the past 3-4 years.
DIA has support at the $428.40 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.4:1), $421.72 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.2:1), $414.99 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3:1) & $413.73/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3:1) price levels & resistance at the $430.90 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.4:1), $431.69 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.4:1), $433.67 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.6:0*) & $433.91/share (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.6:0*) price levels.
DIA ETF’s Price Level:Volume Sentiment Over The Past 3-4 Years
The Week Ahead
The week kicks off Monday with Chicago Business Barometer (PMI) data at 9:45 am, followed by Pending Home Sales data at 10 am & there are no major earnings announcements scheduled.
Tuesday the year winds down with S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index (20 Cities) data at 9 am & there are no earnings reports scheduled for release.
Wednesday is New Year’s Day & there is no economic data or earning’s announcements.
Thursday the year kicks off with Initial Jobless Claims Data at 8:30 am, followed by Construction Spending data at 10 am & Resources Connection reports earnings to kick the new year off after the session’s close.
Friday the week winds down with ISM Manufacturing data at 10 am & there are no earnings reports scheduled for the day.
See you back here next week!
*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM OR DIA AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***
The VIX closed at 15.95, indicating an implied one day move of +/-1.01% & an implied one month move of +/-4.61% for the S&P 500.
Highest Technical Rated S&P 500 Components Per 12/27/2024’s Close:
1 – PLTR
2 – TSLA
3 – UAL
4 – AVGO
5 – TPR
6 – VST
7 – GDDY
8 – FOX
9 – CCL
10 – ANET
Lowest Technical Rated S&P 500 Components Per 12/27/2024’s Close:
1 – MRNA
2 – CE
3 – SMCI
4 – DVN
5 – CVS
6 – NUE
7 – MCHP
8 – REGN
9 – DG
10 – AES
Highest Volume Rated S&P 500 Components Per 12/27/2024’s Close:
1 – AJG
2 – NRG
3 – PKG
4 – LW
5 – MCHP
6 – VTR
7 – O
8 – NFLX
9 – AVY
10 – EW
Lowest Volume Rated S&P 500 Components Per 12/27/2024’s Close:
1 – IEX
2 – HSIC
3 – ERIE
4 – IQV
5 – FOXA
6 – A
7 – LVS
8 – LYV
9 – SYF
10 – CMI
Highest Technical Rated ETFs Per 12/27/2024’s Close:
1 – HYBI
2 – TSLT
3 – TSLR
4 – TSLL
5 – VCAR
6 – TSL
7 – BITW
8 – WANT
9 – BZQ
10 – DEFG
Lowest Technical Rated ETFs Per 12/27/2024’s Close:
1 – MSOX
2 – TSLZ
3 – TSDD
4 – TSLQ
5 – TSLS
6 – SARK
7 – MSOS
8 – KORU
9 – WEED
10 – MRNY
Highest Volume Rated ETFs Per 12/27/2024’s Close:
1 – GENM
2 – FLHK
3 – FLAX
4 – JANQ
5 – TAFL
6 – JANP
7 – PBL
8 – PBOC
9 – HYXU
10 – BCUS
Lowest Volume Rated ETFs Per 12/27/2024’s Close:
1 – USCA
2 – USCL
3 – FDVL
4 – ZTRE
5 – FDTB
6 – ZTWO
7 – UJUN
8 – WBND
9 – JULW
10 – FDGR
Highest Technical Rated General Stocks Per 12/27/2024’s Close:
1 – LAES
2 – RGTI
3 – KULR
4 – QNCCF
5 – QUBT
6 – QMCO
7 – CTM
8 – NUKK
9 – PDYN
10 – UMAC
Lowest Technical Rated General Stocks Per 12/27/2024’s Close:
1 – CYTOF
2 – CYN
3 – MGOL
4 – GOEV
5 – QTTB
6 – EQC
7 – SONX
8 – SYRS
9 – APLT
10 – ADTX
Highest Volume Rated General Stocks Per 12/27/2024’s Close:
1 – INTZ
2 – ETRXF
3 – AILE
4 – MAMA
5 – CCTG
6 – ATRX
7 – GTI
8 – WIMI
9 – LIDR
10 – FCUV
Lowest Volume Rated General Stocks Per 12/27/2024’s Close:
1 – GRCMF
2 – BNPQF
3 – EMMA
4 – OIBZQ
5 – TIMCF
6 – PNBK
7 – FWEDF
8 – GRAF
9 – BTTC
10 – ARTH
*** THE LIST ABOVE IS STRICTLY FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES – I MAY OR MAY NOT HAVE OR INITIATE A LONG, SHORT, OR LONG/SHORT POSITION IN ANY NAME ABOVE AT ANY TIME ***
The VIX closed at 14.73, indicating an implied one day move of +/-0.93% & an implied one month move of +/-4.26% for the S&P 500.
Highest Technical Rated S&P 500 Components Per 12/26/2024’s Close:
1 – PLTR
2 – TSLA
3 – UAL
4 – AVGO
5 – AXON
6 – TPR
7 – VST
8 – CCL
9 – GDDY
10 – APO
Lowest Technical Rated S&P 500 Components Per 12/26/2024’s Close:
1 – MRNA
2 – CE
3 – SMCI
4 – DVN
5 – CVS
6 – NUE
7 – MCHP
8 – DG
9 – REGN
10 – AES
Highest Volume Rated S&P 500 Components Per 12/26/2024’s Close:
1 – NDSN
2 – LW
3 – PAYX
4 – POOL
5 – AFL
6 – MLM
7 – PLD
8 – MKC
9 – LEN
10 – TFX
Lowest Volume Rated S&P 500 Components Per 12/26/2024’s Close:
1 – APO
2 – AON
3 – SPG
4 – ERIE
5 – PCG
6 – JNPR
7 – BKNG
8 – PFG
9 – CRWD
10 – RVTY
Highest Technical Rated ETFs Per 12/26/2024’s Close:
1 – TSLT
2 – TSLR
3 – TSLL
4 – TSL
5 – VCAR
6 – WANT
7 – BITW
8 – QQQU
9 – MAGX
10 – WEBL
Lowest Technical Rated ETFs Per 12/26/2024’s Close:
1 – TSLZ
2 – TSDD
3 – TSLQ
4 – MSOX
5 – TSLS
6 – SARK
7 – UVIX
8 – MRNY
9 – MSOS
10 – WEED
Highest Volume Rated ETFs Per 12/26/2024’s Close:
1 – DWCR
2 – JANQ
3 – EBIZ
4 – XMAY
5 – NSCR
6 – KDRN
7 – XFEB
8 – HEAT
9 – ONLN
10 – HF
Lowest Volume Rated ETFs Per 12/26/2024’s Close:
1 – USCA
2 – GSID
3 – KAUG
4 – XNOV
5 – FDTB
6 – CPLB
7 – FDVL
8 – FDGR
9 – SMCO
10 – DRAI
Highest Technical Rated General Stocks Per 12/26/2024’s Close:
1 – LAES
2 – KULR
3 – RGTI
4 – QUBT
5 – NUKK
6 – CTM
7 – QMCO
8 – QNCCF
9 – UMAC
10 – WKEY
Lowest Technical Rated General Stocks Per 12/26/2024’s Close:
1 – AILE
2 – LTRPB
3 – CYTOF
4 – EFSH
5 – GTI
6 – SOBR
7 – UPC
8 – ADTX
9 – QTTB
10 – LICN
Highest Volume Rated General Stocks Per 12/26/2024’s Close:
1 – MGIH
2 – AIRE
3 – SSY
4 – TWO
5 – COEP
6 – SPRC
7 – WAFU
8 – LKCO
9 – XELB
10 – BCG
Lowest Volume Rated General Stocks Per 12/26/2024’s Close:
1 – QMCI
2 – TPTW
3 – CYCA
4 – BNPQF
5 – AAUCF
6 – PSYTF
7 – VPRB
8 – JPOTF
9 – WEXPF
10 – RHHBF
*** THE LIST ABOVE IS STRICTLY FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES – I MAY OR MAY NOT HAVE OR INITIATE A LONG, SHORT, OR LONG/SHORT POSITION IN ANY NAME ABOVE AT ANY TIME ***
The VIX closed at 16.78, indicating an implied one day move of +/-1.06% & an implied one month move of +/-4.85% for the S&P 500.
Highest Technical Rated S&P 500 Components Per 12/23/2024’s Close:
1 – PLTR
2 – TSLA
3 – UAL
4 – AVGO
5 – AXON
6 – TPR
7 – CCL
8 – VST
9 – GDDY
10 – RCL
Lowest Technical Rated S&P 500 Components Per 12/23/2024’s Close:
1 – MRNA
2 – CE
3 – SMCI
4 – CVS
5 – DVN
6 – NUE
7 – MCHP
8 – DG
9 – REGN
10 – INTC
Highest Volume Rated S&P 500 Components Per 12/23/2024’s Close:
1 – SNA
2 – FDX
3 – APA
4 – LW
5 – LEN
6 – CCL
7 – VRTX
8 – WMT
9 – CTAS
10 – HOLX
Lowest Volume Rated S&P 500 Components Per 12/23/2024’s Close:
1 – SMCI
2 – JNPR
3 – LYV
4 – EPAM
5 – LVS
6 – TPL
7 – APH
8 – GEV
9 – FICO
10 – CFG
Highest Technical Rated ETFs Per 12/23/2024’s Close:
1 – TSLT
2 – TSLR
3 – TSLL
4 – VCAR
5 – TSL
6 – WANT
7 – BITW
8 – MAGX
9 – WEBL
10 – BZQ
Lowest Technical Rated ETFs Per 12/23/2024’s Close:
1 – TSLZ
2 – TSDD
3 – MSOX
4 – TSLQ
5 – TSLS
6 – SARK
7 – MRNY
8 – MSOS
9 – WEED
10 – MJUS
Highest Volume Rated ETFs Per 12/23/2024’s Close:
1 – TGRW
2 – RBUF
3 – DVND
4 – JUNP
5 – KOCT
6 – EZM
7 – FIVA
8 – SQLV
9 – PAWZ
10 – REAI
Lowest Volume Rated ETFs Per 12/23/2024’s Close:
1 – OUT
2 – ABHY
3 – FDCE
4 – USCL
5 – ZTEN
6 – SECR
7 – OVLH
8 – XNOV
9 – JEMB
10 – GVUS
Highest Technical Rated General Stocks Per 12/23/2024’s Close:
1 – NUKK
2 – QUBT
3 – LAES
4 – RGTI
5 – NVNI
6 – KULR
7 – QMCO
8 – UMAC
9 – CBDS
10 – LEEEF
Lowest Technical Rated General Stocks Per 12/23/2024’s Close:
1 – LTRPB
2 – GTI
3 – CYN
4 – QTTB
5 – SOBR
6 – LMPX
7 – GOEV
8 – ZCAR
9 – CRKN
10 – UPC
Highest Volume Rated General Stocks Per 12/23/2024’s Close:
1 – OCC
2 – TRAW
3 – CHEK
4 – GTBP
5 – RELI
6 – PIK
7 – DRCT
8 – NCRA
9 – RAPT
10 – MGOL
Lowest Volume Rated General Stocks Per 12/23/2024’s Close:
1 – OIBZQ
2 – FLMMF
3 – OIIIF
4 – FHSEY
5 – MFON
6 – CIAFF
7 – JWEL
8 – FGI
9 – CNNEF
10 – GBNY
*** THE LIST ABOVE IS STRICTLY FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES – I MAY OR MAY NOT HAVE OR INITIATE A LONG, SHORT, OR LONG/SHORT POSITION IN ANY NAME ABOVE AT ANY TIME ***
SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF slipped -2.16% last week, while the VIX closed the week at 18.36, indicating an implied one day move of +/-1.16% & a one month implied move of +/-5.31% for SPY.
SPY ETF – SPDR S&P 500 ETF’S Technical Performance Over The Past Year
Their RSI is trending back towards the neutral mark of 50 & currently sits at 46.09 following Friday’s advancing session, while their MACD is still bearish, but the histogram is declining less rapidly than earlier in the week.
Volumes were +44.71% above the prior year’s average (83,872,000 vs. 57,959,641), as market participants began jumping out of the pool following Wednesday’s FOMC interest rate decision & Fed Chair Powell’s press conference.
Monday kicked the week off on an ominous note, as the session opened higher, tested a little bit above Friday’s opening price, before heading lower on low volume to close below the open straddling the 10 day moving average’s support.
The session also resulted in a spinning top, which indicates there was a bit of indecision in the air on the part of market participants.
Tuesday the theme continued, as the session opened lower & was unable to fight higher to cross the 10 DMA’s resistance, closing the day as a doji on slightly higher volume than Monday, indicating that uncertainty & caution were still in the air, but there was brief equilibrium.
Wednesday is where things really began to unravel, as the session opened lower with the 10 Day Moving Average, briefly tested higher, before crumbling on a wide range decline on the week’s second highest volume following Chair Powell’s remarks.
What’s more alarming is how easily it broke down the support of the 50 day moving average & managed to close beneath it, which will cause the 50 DMA to curl over bearishly like the 10 DMA already has.
Thursday the pain continued, as the session opened higher & in line with the 50 DMA & briefly tested higher, before unraveling & closing just below Wednesday’s close.
While the slightly lower close means that it was not a bearish harami, it was hardly a vote of confidence & a sign that profit taking may be morphing into a more serious downwards movement in the near-to-mid term when you consider that the session’s volume had only narrowly lower volume than the prior day.
Friday’s price action also continued the skeptical view of the strength behind SPY’s recent moves.
The day opened on a lower note from Thursday, but managed to draw in the most market participants of the week, powering it above the 50 DMA’s resistance & almost reaching the 10 DMA intraday, before profits were taken & the price closed just above the 50 DMA’s support.
While Friday formed a bullish engulfing pattern with Thursday’s candle & the volume & +1.2% advance are all nice, it is still wise to approach this short week & next week with caution.
Particularly as while the volume spike & wide daily range can indicate a reversal is on the horizon, that doesn’t seem likely beyond a brief movement following the squeeze/covering Friday session.
Especially given that there’s likely not going to be much volume this week which will likely continue into next week due to the holidays creating shorter weeks.
Without some type of volume catalyst it doesn’t seem there would be any near-term rallies, particularly when you factor in the limited earnings calls & market data reports that are due for release.
Watching the relationship between Price, the 10 DMA & the 50 DMA will be a key area of focus, particularly as the window created in early November following the US Presidential Election has yet to fully fill & SPY’s oscillators are not signaling strength at the moment.
It will also be worth watching how SPY interacts with its support levels, especially given that the first one has been relatively untested & the following two are slightly more sturdy but close enough to the current price that based on the price action of last week can easily break down, leading to the fourth level, which has been Seller dominated 2:1 over the past 2-3 years.
This will also open SPY up to being ~3% from its 200 day moving average’s support, which is an important long-term trend mark.
SPY has support at the $589.40 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.4:0*), $584.15 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.86:1), $581.90 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.86:1) & $565.99/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2:1) price levels, with resistance at the $598.00 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $598.16 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $607.03/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.
Price Level:Volume Sentiment For SPY ETF Over The Past 2-3 Years
QQQ ETF – Invesco QQQ Trust ETF’s Technical Performance Over The Past Year
Their RSI is trending higher & sits at 51.53, while their MACD is bearish.
Volumes were +19.35% last week vs. the previous year’s average (44,446,000 vs. 37,240,478), as market participants were eager to get out of the pool on Wednesday & Thursday, but covering activity squeezed prices higher heading into the weekend.
QQQ opened the week on a more optimistic note than SPY, but it wasn’t without some caution signals.
Particularly of note was the low volume on Monday that helped QQQ hit a fresh all-time high despite it being a more solid advancing session than SPY’s.
Tuesday’s spinning top candle arrived on low volume as well & formed a bearish harami pattern with the prior day’s candle, which is when folks began heading to the door.
Wednesday opened slightly lower, but also on the second highest volume of the week ripped down straight through the support of the 10 day moving average.
Confirmation came on Thursday when on similar volume (slightly lower) the session opened briefly higher, before continuing to decline lower than Wednesday’s lower & price broke down below the $515/share mark.
Like SPY, QQQ’s Friday morning coffee came with a side order of lower, but it was able to briefly rally intraday to test the 10 DMA’s resistance, got rejected & closed in the middle of Thursday’s range.
This week it will be worth watching how the relatively untested $515.58/share support level holds up, as it’s recently broken down & prices are only above it due to Friday’s session, which while it may normal constitute a reversal opportunity, seems unlikely given that it occurred heading into tumbleweed volume week(s).
The next area of focus will be on the 50 DMA, not just as it is the next support level, but because once that support breaks down QQQ will be on unstable footing.
While QQQ has more local support touch-points than SPY, at the price levels we see now if the 50 DMA breaks down they may not be as resilient of support levels as originally thought if the moving mid-term trend has broken (as we’ve seen three times already in 2024).
QQQ has support at the $515.58 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $507 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $502.81 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2:0*) & $501.35/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2:0*) price levels, with resistance at the $525.32 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $539.15/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.
Price Level:Volume Sentiment For QQQ ETF Over The Past 2-3 Years
IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF declined -4.78% last week, as investors were eager to jump out of the components of the small cap index.
IWM ETF – iShares Russell 2000 ETF’s Technical Performance Over The Past Year
Their RSI is rebounding from the oversold 30 mark & sits currently at 34.67, while their MACD is still bearish & near the lowest levels on its histogram.
Volumes were +40.84% above the prior year’s average last week (44,674,000 vs. 31,720,637), which is alarming given that two of the top three highest volume days were declining sessions & IWM had already been in decline for three weeks before this.
Looking at their MACD you can observe that they’ve been falling since around Thanksgiving time, so that much outflow is reason for concern.
IWM’s chart for the week closely resembles SPY & QQQ’s in terms of intraday action, so in the spirit of the holidays we’ll give the gift of brevity here.
Monday’s weak volumes on an advancing day that did not reach high enough to test the resistance of the 10 day moving average set the stage for the declines of the prior few weeks to continue, and they did on Tuesday, on volume that was slightly higher than Monday’s.
Wednesday put the nails in IWM’s coffin, as the day did manage to test the 10 DMA’s resistance, but proceeded to decline through the 50 DMA & showed more weakness than SPY & QQQ in relation to the price:moving averages relationship.
Thursday & Friday also mimicked SPY & QQQ, but more damage was done in the days leading up to them.
This coming week keep an eye on the 10 & 50 day moving averages, anticipating a bearish crossover by Christmas.
From there broader market sentiment will become more important, as while IWM’s steady oscillating around an average price to slowly climb higher gives them more support levels than other indexes, if the larger cap names are showing severe weakness the small cap names won’t be spared from pain as well.
It should also be noted that IWM is only 4.24% above its 200 DMA’s support, which if that longer term trend breaks down may lead to further declines, particularly as it currently sits in a price zone that is historically Seller dominated 1.5:1 which may cause more of a further breakdown based on how the other indexes behave.
IWM has support at the $221.04 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2:1), $216.73 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.4:1), $214.01 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.5:1) & $213.96/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.5:1) price levels, with resistance at the $223.51 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2:1), $225.20 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2:1), $225.73 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2:1) & $226.50/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2:1) price levels.
Price Level:Volume Sentiment For IWM ETF Over The Past 2-3 Years
DIA ETF – SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF’s Technical Performance Over The Past Year
Their RSI is climbing higher after bouncing off of the oversold 30 level last week & sits at 39.53 due to the last two sessions of the week, while their MACD is bearish & near the lower end of its histogram.
Volumes were +30.13% above the previous year’s average (4,456,000 vs. 3,424,382), which is a bearish signal given that there was only one actual bullish session on the week.
The primary difference between DIA’s week & IWM’s vs. SPY/QQQ’s is that Tuesday’s session that was supported by the 50 day moving average was on a gap down & that Thursday’s session was advancing, but that it opened higher than it closed, forming what appears as a bullish harami, but that is bearish when you consider the price action of the day.
For the sake of brevity, this week watch for the impending 10 & 50 day moving average bearish crossover, which will likely push prices lower to close the window created by the US election’s gap up.
Should this happen & oscillators get stretched out lower, keep an eye out for an emerging head & shoulders pattern with the $431.69/share from October being the left shoulder.
There isn’t as much support nearby for DIA vs. IWM, but given that DIA is the blue chip index it may not matter much, given that the component stocks are names that are most likely to be bought & held over the long-term anyways.
In the event of declines, it is worthwhile assessing the strength of their support levels using the table below & the ratios contained in it in order to gauge when market participants may step in to stop losses.
DIA has support at the $428.40 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.4:1), $414.99 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3:1), $413.73 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3:1) & $410.53/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 9:1) price levels, with resistance at the $431.69 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.4:1), $433.64 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.6:0*), $435.08 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $443.32/share (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.
Price Level:Volume Sentiment For DIA ETF Over The Past 3-4 Years
The Week Ahead
It looks to be a quiet holiday week ahead!
Monday the week kicks off with Consumer Confidence, Durable-Goods Orders & Durable-Goods minus transportation data at 8:30 am, followed by New Home Sales at 10 am.
There are no earnings reports scheduled for Monday, Tuesday or Wednesday & Tuesday the market closes at 1pm.
Tuesday & Wednesday have no major data announcements as it is the Christmas Holiday.
Initial Jobless Claims data are released Thursday morning at 8:30 am.
Friday winds the week down with Advanced U.S. Trade Balance in Goods, Advanced Retail Inventories & Advanced Wholesale Inventories data at 8:30 am.
There are no earnings reports on Thursday or Friday this week either.
See you back here next week!
*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM OR DIA AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***
