XLE, the SPDR Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund ETF has declined -5.45% over the past year, falling -9.1% from their 52-week high set in November of 2024, while advancing +17.58% since their 52-week low in April of 2025 (all figures ex-distributions).
Some of their largest holdings include Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM), Chevron Corp. (CVX), ConocoPhillips (COP), EOG Resources Inc. (EOG), Williams Cos. Inc. (WMB), Kinder Morgan Inc. (KMI), Marathon Petroleum Corp. (MPC), Phillips 66 (PSX), Oneok Inc. (OKE), Schlumberger Ltd. (SLB).
Below is a brief technical analysis of XLE’s recent performance, along with an analysis of their volume sentiment at each price level they’ve traded at over the past ~2 years.
It is not financial advice, but rather an additional tool to reference while performing your own due diligence on XLE, as it shows how market participants have behaved previously at each price level.
This can be particularly useful when analyzing the strength/weakness of support/resistance levels.
Technical Analysis Of XLE, The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund ETF
Their RSI is trending down towards the neutral 50 mark & is currently at 52.86, while their MACD is set to cross over bearishly during today’s session.
Over the past seven sessions volumes have been +4.94% higher than the previous year’s average (17,010,000 vs. 16,209,880.48), which is somewhat cause for concern giving that four of those seven sessions were declining; although the highest volume session was advancing volume.
While this doesn’t mean it’s time to panick, it’s certainly a time to keep a watchful eye in the near-term in the event that there is some more near-term declines.
Last Monday started off on a bearish note, as XLE opened on a gap down, attempted to retrace into the previous Friday’s price range, but was met with declines that briefly broke down through the support of the 10 day moving average & to the low of $85.30/share, before recovering to close above the 10 DMA.
Tuesday opened on a gap lower, tested the support of the 10 day moving average & then took off to the upside, breaking out above the 10 day moving average on the highest volume session of the period to close up +2.69% on the day.
Wednesday opened lower, broke out above Tuesdya’s close temporarily, but declined throughout the session to end lower & form a bearish harami pattern with a lower shadow that indicated that there was a bit of downside appetite among market participants.
Thursday opened on a gap lower, tested all the way down to $87.23, before rallying back to close +0.76% higher, forming a bullish engulfing pattern with Wednesday’s session.
This didn’t look particularly strong though, due to the low advancing volume & the lower shadow’s depth that indicated that there was strong consideration among market participants to send XLE lower.
Friday advanced into the weekend, but again, volumes were only ~62.5% of those from Tuesday, indicating that the bullish enthusiasm was waning.
Monday gave confirmation of that, when XLE declined -1.1%, dropping below the $88/share price level temporarily intra-day & volumes were higher than the prior two advancing sessions, as profits were taken off of the table to begin the week.
Tuesday the trend continued after a gap down open was unable to retrace far into Monday’s real body range, causing declines through the support of the 10 day moving average that led XLE -1.44%.
Investors had to re-think the strength of XLE’s long-term trendline, as it’s daily low was $86.77, while the 200 DMA was $86.76, just one penny away.
In terms of upside potential, the 10 DMA’s resistance will be the gatekeeper higher, which also happens to be a Seller dominated zone historically ($87-87.99).
Then the $89-90 zone will become important from a resistance standpoint, as the $88-88.99 zone is Buyer-centric historically & there are no resistance levels there.
These moves will require an uptick in advancing volume though to be sustainable for any length of time, as right now things appear rather flakey.
The consoldation case looks to be oscillations around the 200 DMA & as it draws nearer the 10 DMA as well while we await an upside or downside catalyst from this earnings season.
This will most likely come from tech if anything, as Banks have proven to not be able to move the needle far this earnings season & most of the large ones have already reported earnings, casting a grim outlook in the near-term.
Granted, the Fed’s Beige Book or Fed speakers this week could also start a fire that leads to the declining case.
The downside case begins with breaking out below the 200 DMA’s support, which has happened as I write this.
Should that occur, the door to the $85-85.99/share zone is left open, which has historically seen more Sellers than Buyers.
In the event that XLE passes through it, the 50 day moving average will be the place to look, which is currently in the $84-84.99/share zone, which is also a Seller zone.
In the event that the 50 DMA breaks down all eyes should focus on $83.13/share for support.
The section below lays out the one year support levels of XLE, as well as the volume sentiment of the price levels that they’ve traded at over the past ~2 years.
Note that while there were some prices in that range below the table’s cut off point, the volumes there relative to the volumes at the levels listed were neglible & would continue the “NULL, 0:0*”‘s shown at the $74/share zone.
Price Level:Volume Sentiment Analysis For XLE, The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund ETF
The top table below shows the support & resistance levels of XLE from the past year’s chart, as well as their price level:volume sentiment at each from data covering the past ~2 years, using Tuesday 7/15/2025’s closing data for their price & moving averages/other technicals, which can be used as a barometer for estimating the expected strength/weakness of each of the support/resistance levels.
The 10, 50 & 200 day moving averages are denoted with bold.
The next tables show the volume sentiment at each individual price level XLE has traded at over the past ~2 years.
Beneath them is a copy & pasteable list of the same data, where the support/resistance levels are denoted in bold.
All ratios with “0” in the denominator are denoted with a “*”.
NULL values are price levels that had limited trading volume, whether it be due to gaps, quick advances or they are at price extremes; in the event that they are retested & there is more data they would have a distinct “Buyers”, “Sellers” or “Even” title.
This is not intended as financial advice, but rather another tool to consider when performing your own research & due diligence on XLE.
$95 – NULL – 0:0*, +9.35% From Current Price Level
$94 – Buyers – 1.2:0*, +8.2% From Current Price Level
$93 – Buyers – 1.33:1, +7.04% From Current Price Level
$92 – Buyers – 1.42:1, +5.89% From Current Price Level
$91 – Buyers – 2.57:1, +4.74% From Current Price Level
$90 – Buyers – 1.52:1, +3.59% From Current Price Level
$89 – Buyers – 2.31:1, +2.44% From Current Price Level
$88 – Buyers – 2.05:1, +1.29% From Current Price Level
$87 – Sellers – 1.04:1, +0.14% From Current Price Level – 10 Day Moving Average*
$86 – Buyers – 1.13:1, -1.01% From Current Price Level – Current Price Level & 200 Day Moving Average**
$85 – Sellers – 1.1:1, -2.16% From Current Price Level
$84 – Sellers – 1.08:1, -3.31% From Current Price Level – 50 Day Moving Average*
$83 – Buyers – 1.02:1, -4.47% From Current Price Level
$82 – Buyers – 2.22:1, -5.62% From Current Price Level
$81 – Sellers – 1.36:1, -6.77% From Current Price Level
$80 – Buyers – 1.46:1, -7.92% From Current Price Level
$79 – Sellers – 1.54:1, -9.07% From Current Price Level
$78 – Sellers – 2.28:1, -10.22% From Current Price Level
$77 – Sellers – 1.35:1, -11.37% From Current Price Level
$76 – Sellers – 3.18:1, -12.52% From Current Price Level
$75 – Sellers – 1:0*, -13.67% From Current Price Level
$74 – NULL – 0:0*, -14.83% From Current Price Level
*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN XLE AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***