SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF gained +0.64%, while the VIX closed at 16.41, indicating an implied one day move of +/-1.03% & an implied one month move of +/-4.74%.
Their RSI is right up against the overbought 70 level, currently sitting at 68.91, while their MACD is relatively flat but bearish in relation to their signal line.
Volumes were +23.56% higher than the previous year’s average (74,455,000 vs. 60,258,473.9), as big banks kicked off the fresh earnings season & did pretty well for the most part.
Monday the week began with an advancing session that showed that the support of the 10 day moving average appears to still be sturdy & robust.
The next day signaled that there may be some turbulence on the horizon though, as the session opened higher on a gap up, before declining all the way down to close in-line with the 10 day moving average’s support forming a bearish engulfing pattern with Monday’s candle on the week’s second highest volume.
Wednesday brought us the highest volume session of the week, and despite advancing & forming a bullish harami pattern with Tuesday’s candle, warning signs continued to flash.
The session opened within Wednesday’s candle’s real body, but broke out downward, took out the 10 day moving average as a support levels temporarily, before roaring back intraday to close as a dragonfly doji.
The day’s low broke through the $620/share level, indicating that there is a bit of appetite for SPY to be below that price level, which we may see within the next week.
Thursday saw a higher open that stayed above the 10 DMA’s support & ultimately the day closed up +0.61%.
Friday’s session certainly left market participants with questions, as the day opened on a gap up, tested slightly higher, before collapsing into the close & leaving a possibility for an evening star pattern to emerge with today’s session, which would be bearish.
Heading into the new week, all eyes will be on the plethora of earnings reports (listed below) and there is not a ton of economic data for release.
The upside case will require a major catalyst, which will be interesting to see given how lofty earnings expectations are for many of the companies reporting this week.
Given that we’re still at all-time highs, that would require some serious earnings beats & upwards future guidance figures, which seems unlikely to happen outside for a few names.
However, volumes have remained elevated which has helped SPY & its component Stocks grind higher.
The consolidation case continues to be the same as the weeks prior, where oscillations around the 10 day moving average would be the most likely case while we await the aforementioned catalyst.
To the downside, the first support level is the 10 day moving average, and then there is nothing for another -2.33%, at which point the gap up form late June is going to be nearby & will possibly be filled.
With this in mind, the downside levels that are most important to watch are the 10 DMA, $609.59 & the 50 DMA in the coming week(s).
SPY has support at the $624.13 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $609.59 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $607.15 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.6:1) & $603.42/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 7:1) price levels, with resistance at the$629.47/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.
QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF advanced +1.27% last week, as the tech-heavy index was the favorite destination among market participants.
Their RSI is in overbought territory & beginning to signal downward following today’s session, currently sitting at 71.08, while their MACD is bearish, but floundering about near the signal line following
Volumes were +17.68% higher than the prior year’s average (46,622,500 vs. 39,619,076.31), which is primarily due to Wednesday’s advancing session & Friday’s declining session.
Monday opened up slightly, briefly testing below the support of the 10 day movign average, but was able to muster an intra-day gain of +0.36%.
Tuesday opened on a gap up, and while it stayed away from the 10 DMA, it closed almost ~1% lower than the session opened, gaining +0.09% day-over-day, but signaling that there is limited upside appetite still there unless we get some form of upside catalyst.
Wednesday confirmed this & showed that there is a bit more downside appetite than originaly thought, as the session opened on a gap lower, tested up to $560.21 & as low as $551.56, only to close as a high wave doji at $557.29.
While it closed closer to the high end of the day’s range, the day exposed that there is a variety of thoughts as to where QQQ should be valued currently.
This was also on the week’s highest volume, indicating that there was a bit of profit taking going on as there was a bit of uneasiness so close to the all-time high.
Thursday opened on a gap up & pushed higher to close +0.81% & setting a new all-time high, but the volume was not as strong as Wednesday’s, indicating that there is waning enthusiasm at prices so high & that folks are becoming more cautious.
Friday opened on a gap up, but the second highest volume session of the week left market participants with a bit of uncertainty heading into the weekend.
The day resulted in a spinning top that was able to tread water above the $560/share level, but the spinning top shows that there was quite a bit of uncertainty & the high volume shows market participants were eager to take some profits & head risk-off into the weekend.
QQQ is slightly different than SPY now, in that it is slightly leading the four major indexes & is a bit more extended, making it less likely to see an upside surprise of much strength or magnitude.
In the event of one though, you will need sturdy, sustained increases in advancing volume before QQQ marches much higher in the near-term.
The consolidation case looks like a continuation of the range that we’ve been seeing all month, with QQQ oscillating around the 10 day moving average, where a keen eye should be placed on the $550/share level, as in the event of a breakdown that would lead us into the declining case.
The declining case is similar to SPY’s in that once the 10 day moving average breaks down, there is no support levels again until -3.05% lower.
In the event of a decline that reaches the second support levels at $539.40, all eyes should be on the 50 day moving average’s support, as well as the bottom of the window from June 23, 2025 at $531.65 which has not been filled yet.
Again, QQQ is likely to lead SPY in the coming week(s) due to the large volume of tech companies reporting earnings & limited economic data being released.
The table below will be helpful in assessing the strength & weakness of support/resistance levels.
QQQ has support at the $556.36 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $539.40 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.67:1), $536.88 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.67:1) & $532.43/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3:1) price levels, with resistance at the $564.73/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.
IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF declined -0.65% for the week, as the small cap index was shunned in favor of the other three major indexes for the week.
Their RSI is trending back towards the neutral 50-mark, currently at 58.95, while their MACD is bearish after crossing over early this week.
Volumes were +37.01% higher than the prior year’s average (42,140,000 vs. 30,757,068), as there was a bit of profit taking & shares exchanging hands during the week.
Monday the week kicked off on an optimistic note for IWM, as the session resulted in a bullish engulfing pattern, but the session’s volume was the lowest of the entire week.
Tuesday opened on a gap up, only the decline all day throughout the session to form a bearish engulfing pattern & expose that the support of the 10 day moving average was not so sturdy, as the session closed beneath it on volume that eclipsed the previous day’s level.
Wednesday began to really expose the cracks that Tuesday brought attention to, as while the session resulted in a bullish harami pattern day-over-day, the high never touched the resistance of the 10 DMA & the lower shadow on the day’s candle expose that there was a lot of downside appetite for IWM.
While some of this came from profit taking, per the session being the week’s highest volume, there was clearly a run made at the 200 day moving average’s support, indicating that there is less belief in the strength of the long-term trend line than may have originally been though since the breakout above it in late June.
Thursday saw an advance of +1.31% & price broke above the resistance of the 10 DMA, but Friday proved this to be short lived.
Friday opened on a gap up, that quickly saw profits being taken down from the table in droves, where the session’s low temporarily broke down below the support of the 10 DMA, but the session closed $0.29 above it heading into the weekend.
The upside case for IWM remains similar to what it’s been the past couple of weeks, $225.37-$226.05 are going to be a key area of focus that need to be passed through with conviction that comes in the form of high volume in order to see any sustainable advances.
This is especially true, as per the table below the $224-227.99/share price zone for IWM has historically been a Seller dominated zone, which will require even more effort to break through these resistance levels.
A consolidation around here for IWM likely comes in the form of oscillations between the 10 & 200 day moving averages while we await an upside or downside catalyst.
The downside argument here brings our attention to the $216.76-216.91/share support zone, as if it breaks down the next price zone is another Seller zone that also houses the long-term trendline.
If the 200 DMA’s support breaks down in this zone then the $211.77/share price level at the bottom of the window left open from late June becomes a new target, and the sturdiness of the 50 day moving average will be tested.
While it is currently in a Buyer dominated zone, the sentiment change that would be reflected by prices being that low would make it more difficult to find stable footing for IWM in the near-term, making the chart below worth examining before any of these levels are retested.
IWM has support at the $222.04 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.41:1), $219.93 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.19:1), $219.57 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.19:1) & $216.91/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.19:1) price levels, with resistance at the $222.40 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.41:1), $225.37 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.23:1), $226.04 (Two Touch-points*, Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.23:1) & $226.05/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.23:1) price levels.
DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF dipped -0.07% for the week, as market participants mostly held onto their blue chip holdings.
Their RSI is trending back towards the neutral 50 level, currently at 59.41, while their MACD crossed over bearishly during the week.
Volumes were +23.29% higher than the prior year’s average (42,140,000 vs. 3,189,678.71), likely due to a solid amount of profit taking given how close the day-over-day changes in volume were for Tuesday through Friday.
Monday was relatively quiet on the volume front for DIA & while the day resulted in a bullish engulfing pattern, there was limited conviction behind the move, which we saw based on the weekly change in price.
Tuesday opened on a gap higher, but the strength of the 10 day moving average’s support was no match for the market forces that pushed DIA lower, forming a bearish engulfing pattern & closing at $439.97/share.
Wednesday saw the week’s highest volume, and much like IWM the level of profit taking & shares exchanging hands exposed the downside appetite from an investor’s standpoint on DIA.
The day’s lower shadow went down to $437.36/share before it was able to rally back to close up +0.5% on the day, but the resulting candle did not spark feelings of comfort among market participants.
Thursday opened slightly lower, but prices squeezed higher for a D-o-D gain of +0.65% & DIA managed to break above the 10 day moving average’s resistance again.
Friday signaled that there was limited risk appetite heading into the weekend, and DIA opened on a gap higher, only to decline through the support of the 10 DMA once again & close just below it on the day.
Unlike IWM, DIA is close to all-time highs, making any upside movement more like the SPY & QQQ cases mentioned above, there will need to be meaningful advancing volume behind any moves for them to be taken seriously.
The consolidation case is almost highly similar to SPY & QQQ’s, in that there will likely be oscillations around the 10 day moving average awaiting an upside or downside catalyst, while hopefully remaining over $440/share.
In the event that the $440/share level breaks down, we’re likely to see the windows created by late June’s gappy behavior begin to fill, which places us in the downside scenario.
That would bring DIA’s price face to face with their long-term trend line, which is in a Buyer zone currently, but based on the gappy behavior we saw last month may be primed to give out under the momentum gained by the window closings.
This could become especially dangerous given the proximity of the 50 DMA to the 200 DMA & the fact that the 10 DMA will be a long in tow closely to price, which would add extra pressure against the 200 DMA’s support strength in the event of a death cross.
DIA has support at the $439.66 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.71:1), $430.10 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.43:1), $428.83 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.43:1) & $428.13/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.43:1) price levels, with resistance at the $443.49 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.24:1), $446.54 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 14:1), $446.82 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 14:1) & $448.68/share (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.
The Week Ahead
Monday the week begins with U.S. Leading Economic Indicators at 10 am.
Cleveland-Cliffs, Domino’s Pizza, Roper & Verizon Communications report earnings before Monday morning’s opening bell, with Agilysis, Alexandria RE, BOK Financial, Calix Networks, Crown Holdings, Equity LifeStyle Properties, Medpace, NXP Semiconductors, RLI Corp., Steel Dynamics, W.R. Berkley, Wintrust Financial & Zions Bancorp reporting after the session’s close.
Fed Chair Powell delivers opening remarks at a banking conference at 8:30 am on Tuesday.
Tuesday morning’s earnings calls include Coca-Cola, Avery Dennison, Badger Meter, Community Financial System, D.R. Horton, Danaher, Equifax, First Bancorp, General Motors, Genuine Parts, Halliburton, Hope Bancorp, Interpublic, Invesco, IQVIA, KeyCorp, Lockheed Martin, MSCI, Northrop Grumman, Old National Bancorp, PACCAR, Pentair, Philip Morris International, PulteGroup, Quest Diagnostics, RTX, Sherwin-Williams, Synchrony Financial, Tenet Healthcare & Valmont Industries, before Baker Hughes, Cal-Maine Foods, Capital One Financial, Cathaty General Bancorp, Chubb, CoStar Group, East West Bancorp, Enphase Energy, EQT Corp., Intuitive Surgical, Manhattan Associates, Matador Resources, National Bank, Pegasystems, Penny Mac, Range Resources, Renasant, SAP SE, Texas Intrustments, Trustmark & Vicor after the closing bell.
Wednesday delivers Existing Home Sales at 10 am.
Amphenol, AT&T, BankUnited, Boston Scientific, CME Group, Fiserv, Freeport-McMoran, GE Vernova, General Dynamics, Hasbro, Healthcare Services Group, Hilton, Lamb Weston, Lennox International, M/I Homes, Moody’s, Mr. Cooper Group, NextEra Energy, Northern Trust, NVR, Otis Worldwide, Popular, PROG Holdings, Prosperity Bancshares, Rogers Communications, Taylor Morrison Home, TE Connectivity, Teledyne Technologies, Travel + Leisure & United Community Banks report earnings on Wednesday morning, followed by Alphabet, Tesla, Alaska Air Group, ASGN Incorporated, Banc of California, Cadence Bank, Century Communities, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Churchill Downs, Community Health, Core Labs, Crown Castle, CSX, EastGroup, Essential Properties Realty Trust, First American Financial, Globe Life, Goosehead Insurance, Graco, International Business Machines, ICON, Kaiser Aluminum, Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings, Las Vegas Sands, Mattel, MaxLinear, Meritage Homes, Molina Healthcare, O’Reilly Automotive, Oceaneering International, Packaging Corporation of America, Plexus, QuantumScape, Raymond James, Reliance, RenaissanceRE, Ribbon Communications, Robert Half, Rollins, SEI Investments, Selective Insurance, ServiceNow, Sonoco Products, SS&C Technologies Holdings, Stewart Information Services, T-Mobile US, United Rentals, Viking Therapuetics, Waste Connections, WEX & Wyndham Hotels & Resorts after the closing bell.
Initial Jobless Claims data comes out Thursday at 8:30 am, followed by S&P Flash U.S. Services PMI & S&P Flash U.S. Manufacturing PMI data at 9:45 am & New Home Sales data at 10 am.
A.O. Smith, ADT, Allegion, AllianceBernstein, American Airlines, Ameriprise Financial, Ardagh Metal Packaging, Atlantic Union Bankshares, Berkshire Hills Bancorp, Blackstone, Bread Financial, Brunswick, CenterPoint, CNX Resources, Comcast, CVB Financial, Darling Ingredients, Dover, Dow, FirstCash, FirstService, Flex, FTI Consulting, Group 1 Auto, HNI, Honeywell, IMAX, Integer Holdings, Iridium Communications, Keurig Dr. Pepper, L3Harris, Labcorp Holdings, Lazard, Lincoln Electric, LKQ, Mobileye Global, Mohawk Industries, Nasdaq, NovoCure, Old Republic, PHINIA, Pool, RPC, RPM, Ryder System, Sonic Automotive, STMicroelectronics, TechnipFMC, Teck Resources, Textron, Tractor Supply, TransUnion, TRI Pointe Homes, Union Pacific, Valero Energy, Valley National, Visteon, Wabtec, West Pharmaceutical Services & WNS report earnings Thursday morning before the opening bell, before Agnico-Eagle Mines, Associated Banccorp, Boyd Gaming, Celestica, Columbia Banking, Coursera, Customers Bancorp, Deckers Outdoor, Digital Realty Trust, Edwards Lifesciences, Enova International, First Financial Bancorp, Gaming and Leisure Properties, Glacier Bancorp, Healthpeak Properties, Hexcel, Intel, Kinsale Capital, Knowles, Liberty Energy, McGrath RentCorp, Minerals Technologies, Moelis, Newmont, Phillips Edison & Company, Sallie Mae, Seacoast Banking, SkyWest, South State, VeriSign, Weyerhaeuser & WSFS Financial after the closing bell.
Friday the week winds down with Durable-Goods Orders & Durable-Goods minus Transportation data at 8:30 am.
Aon, AutoNation, Booz Allen Hamilton, Centene, Charter Communications, First Hawaiian, Flagstar Financial, Gentex, HCA, Lakeland Financial, Lear, Moog, OneMain Holdings, Phillips 66, Portland General Electric, Saia, Sensient, Stellar Bank, TriNet Group & Wabash National are all scheduled to report earnings on Friday morning before the session’s open.
See you back here next week!
*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM OR DIA AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***