Since our last Volume Sentiment Analysis in September markets have slowly ground higher, with some slight volatility in early October that has largely been recovered, but new record all time highs have been elusive for SPY & QQQ, but have been attained by IWM & DIA.
For those who read our note weekly, this comes as no surprise given that SPY & QQQ have moved in very similar manners week-over-week, with IWM & DIA moving somewhat in tandem as well.
Last night the VIX closed at 18.6, indicating an implied one day move range of +/-1.17% & an implied one month move range of +/-5.38% for the S&P 500.
For those keeping score at home, SPY has a beta of 1, QQQ’s beta is 1.14, IWM’s is 1.46 & DIA’s is 0.99 (per Fidelity data pulled last night).
Volumes have been escalating after a over a year of highly subdued levels compared to the prior 3-4 years, with even this week DIA experiencing a weekly jump of +100.98% compared to the prior year’s average (7,376,000 vs. 3,670,040), QQQ seeing a +57.78% jump (68,176,000 vs. 43,210,438), IWM experiencing a +44.34% increase (47,022,000 vs. 32,578,088) & SPY coming in at a jump of +39.15% vs. the prior year’s average volume (91,420,000 vs. 65,697,291).
This most recent earnings season has also seen a bit more volatility than the prior few early on, indicating that there may be more negative sentiment awaiting market participants in the coming weeks-to-month.
This is particularly true given than as has been noted in weeks prior, QQQ is likely to lead the charge up or the fall down & they’ve been unable to crack a new all-time high this week, despite the blue chip DIA & small cap IWM scraping by to new ones.
Add in the government shutdown, rumors on international relations that have mostly not quite seemed to have played themselves out yet & where we sit in the FOMC interest rate cycle with regards to employment data (and lack thereof, given Chair Powell’s implications of a hazy outlook on the horizon at best & cutting as a “hedge”) and it seems like a great time to check in on the strength/weakness of the major four index ETFs’ support/resistance levels.
Each section below contains a view of each index ETF’s chart (for a technical breakdown of each’s chart, see last week’s market review note), as well as a list of their current one year support & resistance levels with the volume sentiment noted beneath it on the table.
There is an additional table beneath this table with each price level’s sentiment, as well as a typed text version below that is able to be copied & pasted.
Note that “NULL, 0:0*” values denote areas that each name has traded at (or gapped through, in some instances) but with limited volume data to work with from a comparison standpoint in terms of creating a ratio of buyers:sellers (or vice versa) or is the outlier above the highest/lowest level with price data.
Also, prices that do have a ratio of Buyers:Sellers (Sellers:Buyers) where the denominator is 0 are denoted with an asterisk “*” as well.
In the written lists of the price levels & volume sentiments the price levels that contain support & resistance levels are marked in BOLD.
Recall that at price extremes such as the highs that we have recently hit there will tend to be skewed data due to the small sample size & factor that into how you interpret each price level’s reported sentiment.
This is intended to serve as an additional tool, similar to a barometer to use during your due diligence process & is not meant to replace doing your own research & is not financial advice.
Price Level:Volume Sentiment Analysis For SPY, The SPDR S&P 500 ETF
SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF is still below its all-time high & looks set to have its upper Bollinger Band expand soon after a week & a half of relative consolidation.
Checking their Average True Range (ATR) also shows signals of increasing volatility & their MACD so far through the week has not managed to break out bullishly, meaning it may bump the bottom of the signal line at best without a major upside catalyst.
CPI data on Friday is likely the only panacea at this rate, as earnings calls have begun to sound less and less optimistic vs. the recent quarters past.
It should also be noted that the next four support levels from SPY’s close are historically dominated by Sellers over the past ~3 years.
Given that the 10 & 50 Day moving averages are both in that list & moving in the manner that they are it’s a good time to review the strength/weakness of SPY’s support/resistance levels.
With that said, below are the support/resistance levels of SPY’s one year chart, along with their volume sentiments at each of the price levels that they’ve traded at over the past ~3 years.
Recall again that this is intended to be a barometer to aid in your research & due diligence and is not financial advice.
$675 – NULL – 0:0*, +0.75% From Current Price Level
$670 – Buyers – 2.5:1 – 0.00% From Current Price Level – All-Time High*
$665 – Buyers – 2.55:1, -0.74% From Current Price Level – Current Price Level & 10 Day Moving Average**
$660 – Buyers – 1.58:1, -1.49% From Current Price Level
$655 – Sellers – 2.4:1, -2.23% From Current Price Level – 50 Day Moving Average*
$650 – Sellers – 1.57:1, -2.98% From Current Price Level
$645 – Buyers – 4:1, -3.73% From Current Price Level
$640 – Buyers – 1.83:1, -4.47% From Current Price Level
$635 – Sellers – 2:1, -5.22% From Current Price Level
$630 – Sellers – 2:1, -5.97% From Current Price Level
$625 – Buyers – 1.2:1, -6.71% From Current Price Level
$620 – Buyers – 1.2:1, -7.46% From Current Price Level
$615 – Buyers – 1.2:1, -8.2% From Current Price Level
$610 – Buyers – 1.3:0*, -8.95% From Current Price Level
$605 – Buyers – 7:1, -9.7% From Current Price Level
$600 – Buyers – 9.33:1, -10.44% From Current Price Level, 200 Day Moving Average*
$595 – Buyers – 1.59:1, -11.19% From Current Price Level
$590 – Sellers – 1.28:1, -11.94% From Current Price Level
$585 – Buyers – 1.65:1, -12.68% From Current Price Level
$580 – Buyers – 1.67:1, -13.43% From Current Price Level
$575 – Sellers – 1.74:1, -14.18% From Current Price Level
$570 – Buyers – 1.27:1, -14.92% From Current Price Level
$565 – Buyers – 1.5:1, -15.67% From Current Price Level
$560 – Buyers – 1.14:1, -16.41% From Current Price Level
$555 – Buyers – 2.91:1, -17.16% From Current Price Level
$550 – Buyers – 2.48:1, -17.91% From Current Price Level
$545 – Buyers – 2.27:1, -18.65% From Current Price Level
$540 – Buyers – 1.15:1, -19.4% From Current Price Level
$535 – Buyers – 2.47:1, -20.15% From Current Price Level
$530 – Sellers – 1.33:1, -20.89% From Current Price Level
$525 – Buyers – 1:0*, -21.64% From Current Price Level
$520 – Buyers – 1.06:1, -22.38% From Current Price Level
$515 – Buyers – 1.82:1, -23.13% From Current Price Level
$510 – Buyers – 1.06:1, -23.88% From Current Price Level
$505 – Buyers – 1.92:1, -24.62% From Current Price Level
$500 – Sellers – 3.22:1, -25.37% From Current Price Level
$496 – Buyers – 4:1, -25.97% From Current Price Level
$492 – Sellers – 7.33:1, -26.56% From Current Price Level
$488 – Sellers – 1.73:1, -27.16% From Current Price Level
$484 – Buyers – 1.67:1, -27.76% From Current Price Level
$480 – Sellers – 1.06:1, -28.36% From Current Price Level
$476 – Buyers – 1.71:1, -28.95% From Current Price Level
$472 – Buyers – 2.78:1, -29.55% From Current Price Level
$468 – NULL – 0:0*, -30.15% From Current Price Level
$464 – Buyers – 1.86:1, -30.74% From Current Price Level
$460 – Buyers – 1.35:1, -31.34% From Current Price Level
$456 – Sellers – 2.29:1, -31.94% From Current Price Level
$452 – Buyers – 0.6:0*, -32.53% From Current Price Level
$448 – Buyers – 1.2:0*, -33.13% From Current Price Level
$444 – Buyers – 2:1, -33.73% From Current Price Level
$440 – Buyers – 2.33:1, -34.33% From Current Price Level
$436 – Buyers – 2.03:1, -34.92% From Current Price Level
$432 – Sellers – 1.5:1, -35.52% From Current Price Level
$428 – Buyers – 2:1, -36.12% From Current Price Level
$424 – Buyers – 1.09:1, -36.71% From Current Price Level
$420 – Buyers – 1.08:1, -37.31% From Current Price Level
$416 – Buyers – 1.03:1, -37.91% From Current Price Level
$412 – Buyers – 1.39:1, -38.5% From Current Price Level
$408 – Sellers – 2.88:1, -39.1% From Current Price Level
$404 – Buyers – 1.65:1, -39.7% From Current Price Level
$400 – Buyers – 1.66:1, -40.3% From Current Price Level
$396 – Buyers – 1.47:1, -40.89% From Current Price Level
$392 – Sellers – 11.17:1, -41.49% From Current Price Level
$388 – Buyers – 2.94:1, -42.09% From Current Price Level
$384 – Buyers – 2.16:1, -42.68% From Current Price Level
$380 – Buyers – 1.93:1, -43.28% From Current Price Level
$376 – Sellers – 2.93:1, -43.88% From Current Price Level
$372 – Sellers – 2.23:1, -44.48% From Current Price Level
$368 – Sellers – 1.78:1, -45.07% From Current Price Level
$364 – Sellers – 2.39:1, -45.67% From Current Price Level
$360 – Buyers – 2.33:1, -46.27% From Current Price Level
$356 – Sellers – 1.11:1, -46.86% From Current Price Level
$352 – Buyers – 1.6:1, -47.46% From Current Price Level
$348 – Buyers – 1.33:1, -48.06% From Current Price Level
$344 – Sellers – 0.7:0*, -48.65% From Current Price Level
$340 – Sellers – 2.3:0*, -49.25% From Current Price Level
Price Level:Volume Sentiment Analysis For QQQ, The Invesco QQQ Trust ETF
QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF has been the one to watch of recent, as it appears that market participants will be broadly following it between the FOMC interest rate policies & the tech heavy components that it houses.
Last night’s session began closing Monday’s gap up, but there is still support to be had in the 10 day moving average, which will be a key area to watch in the coming weeks (see this weekend’s note referenced above).
Heightened volatility appears on the menu for QQQ in the coming week, which makes knowing the lay of the land from a support/resistance perspective all the more important.
Reference the tables below to accompany your research & aid in assessing your views on the strength/weakness of support/resistance levels.
$615 – NULL – 0:0*, +1.11% From Current Price Level
$610 – Buyers – 1.17:1, 0.29% From Current Price Level – All-Time High*
$605 – Buyers – 2.2:0*, -0.53% From Current Price Level – Current Price Level*
$600 – Buyers – 2.74:1, -1.35% From Current Price Level – 10 Day Moving Average*
$595 – Sellers – 1.17:1,-2.17% From Current Price Level
$590 – Buyers – 1.04:1, -3% From Current Price Level
$585 – Sellers – 3.14:1, -3.82% From Current Price Level – 50 Day Moving Average*
$580 – Buyers – 2.5:0*, -4.64% From Current Price Level
$575 – Buyers – 2.33:1, -5.46% From Current Price Level
$570 – Buyers – 6.88:1, -6.28% From Current Price Level
$565 – Sellers – 1.08:1, -7.11% From Current Price Level
$560 – Sellers – 1.26:1, -7.93% From Current Price Level
$555 – Buyers – 4.5:1, -8.75% From Current Price Level
$550 – Sellers – 1.36:1, -9.57% From Current Price Level
$545 – Buyers – 2:1, -10.39% From Current Price Level
$540 – Buyers – 1.2:0*, -11.22% From Current Price Level
$535 – Buyers – 6:1, -12.04% From Current Price Level
$530 – Buyers – 2.76:1, -12.86% From Current Price Level, 200 Day Moving Average*
$525 – Buyers – 1.29:1, -13.68% From Current Price Level
$520 – Buyers – 1.79:1, -14.5% From Current Price Level
$515 – Buyers – 1.05:1, -15.33% From Current Price Level
$510 – Sellers – 1.42:1, -16.15% From Current Price Level
$505 – Sellers – 1.61:1, -16.97% From Current Price Level
$500 – Buyers – 1.71:1, -17.79% From Current Price Level
$496 – Buyers – 1.33:1, -18.45% From Current Price Level
$492 – Sellers – 1.11:1, -19.11% From Current Price Level
$488 – Buyers – 4.6:1, -19.77% From Current Price Level
$484 – Buyers – 1.34:1, -20.42% From Current Price Level
$480 – Buyers – 1.58:1, -21.08% From Current Price Level
$476 – Buyers – 1.24:1, -21.74% From Current Price Level
$472 – Buyers – 1.93:1, -22.4% From Current Price Level
$468 – Sellers – 1.38:1, -23.05% From Current Price Level
$464 – Buyers – 1.35:1, -23.71% From Current Price Level
$460 – NULL – 0:0*, -24.37% From Current Price Level
$456 – Buyers – 2.5:1, -25.03% From Current Price Level
$452 – Buyers – 3.7:0*, -25.68% From Current Price Level
$448 – Sellers – 1.06:1, -26.34% From Current Price Level
$444 – Sellers – 2.68:1, -27% From Current Price Level
$440 – Sellers – 1.71:1, -27.66% From Current Price Level
$436 – Buyers – 2.7:0*, -28.32% From Current Price Level
$432 – Sellers – 3.5:0*, -28.97% From Current Price Level
$428 – Sellers – 1.5:0*, -29.63% From Current Price Level
$424 – NULL – 0:0*, -30.29% From Current Price Level
$420 – Buyers – 1.39:1, -30.95% From Current Price Level
$416 – NULL – 0:0*, -31.6% From Current Price Level
$412 – Sellers – 2.7:0*, -32.26% From Current Price Level
$408 – NULL – 0:0*, -32.92% From Current Price Level
Price Level:Volume Sentiment Analysis For IWM, The iShares Russell 2000 ETF
IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF is having an interesting week, after hitting a new all-time high, but consolidating into what looks to be forming a diamond pattern.
Elevated volumes recently skew towards the declining side, which is something to keep closely in mind as well when watching the small cap index.
They enjoy a lot of Buyer dominated zones in the tables below from a support standpoint, but recall that they will likely trail-to-outdecline their larger index counterparts (from best-to-worst case scenario).
$256 – NULL – 0:0*, +4.77% From Current Price Level
$252 – NULL – 0:0*, +3.13% From Current Price Level, All-Time High*
$248 – NULL – 0:0*, +1.49% From Current Price Level
$244 – NULL – 0:0*, -0.14% From Current Price Level – Current Price Level & 10 Day Moving Average**
$240 – Buyers – 2.19:1, -1.78% From Current Price Level
$236 – Buyers – 1.56:1, -3.42% From Current Price Level – 50 Day Moving Average*
$232 – Sellers – 1.03:1, -5.05% From Current Price Level
$228 – Buyers – 1.58:1, -6.69% From Current Price Level
$224 – Buyers – 1.07:1, -8.33% From Current Price Level
$220 – Buyers – 2:1, -9.97% From Current Price Level
$216 – Buyers – 1.01:1, -11.6% From Current Price Level – 200 Day Moving Average*
$212 – Sellers – 1.2:1, -13.24% From Current Price Level
$208 – Buyers – 1.36:1, -14.88% From Current Price Level
$204 – Buyers – 1.49:1, -16.51% From Current Price Level
$200 – Buyers – 1.24:1, -18.15% From Current Price Level
$198 – Sellers – 1.29:1, -18.97% From Current Price Level
$196 – Sellers – 1.05:1, -19.79% From Current Price Level
$194 – Buyers – 1.85:1, -20.61% From Current Price Level
$192 – Buyers – 1.11:1, -21.42% From Current Price Level
$190 – Sellers – 1.87:1, -22.24% From Current Price Level
$188 – Sellers – 1.26:1, -23.06% From Current Price Level
$186 – Even – 1:1, -23.88% From Current Price Level
$184 – Buyers – 2.2:1, -24.7% From Current Price Level
$182 – Buyers – 3.85:1, -25.52% From Current Price Level
$180 – Sellers – 2.04:1, -26.34% From Current Price Level
$178 – Sellers – 1.82:1, -27.15% From Current Price Level
$176 – Sellers – 1.86:1, -27.97% From Current Price Level
$174 – Buyers – 2.33, -28.79% From Current Price Level
$172 – Sellers – 2.75:1, -29.61% From Current Price Level
$170 – Buyers – 1.2:1, -30.43% From Current Price Level
$168 – Buyers – 3.33:1, -31.25% From Current Price Level
$166 – Sellers – 2.1:1, -32.06% From Current Price Level
$164 – Buyers – 1.27:1, -32.88% From Current Price Level
$162 – Sellers – 2.2:1, -33.7% From Current Price Level
$160 – Buyers – 6.5:1, -34.52% From Current Price Level
$158 – Sellers – 2.5:1, -35.34% From Current Price Level
Price Level:Volume Sentiment Analysis For DIA, The SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF
DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF also also showing signs of potentially following IWM into the diamond pattern emerging, but is still showing more resilience.
The spike in volume this past week that over doubled it’s prior year’s average weekly level was a sight to behold, but yesterday’s bearish session combined with Thursday’s shows that profit taking is abound, making any upside moves without strong advancing volume riskier than usual.
$472 – NULL – 0:0*, +0.78% From Current Price Level
$468 – NULL – 0:0*, -0.07% From Current Price Level, All-Time High & Current Price Level**
$464 – Buyers – 1.9:1, -0.93% From Current Price Level
$460 – Buyers – 2.36:1, -1.78% From Current Price Level – 10 Day Moving Average*
$456 – Buyers – 1.44:1, -2.63% From Current Price Level – 50 Day Moving Average*
$452 – Sellers – 1.1:1, -3.49% From Current Price Level
$448 – Buyers – 1.8:1, -4.34% From Current Price Level
$444 – Buyers – 2:1, -5.2% From Current Price Level
$440 – Buyers – 1.84:1, -6.05% From Current Price Level
$436 – Sellers – 1.65:1, -6.91% From Current Price Level
$432 – Buyers – 1.5:1, -7.76% From Current Price Level – 200 Day Moving Average*
$428 – Buyers – 1.4:1, -8.61% From Current Price Level
$424 – Buyers – 1.5:1, -9.47% From Current Price Level
$420 – Buyers – 1.5:1, -10.32% From Current Price Level
$416 – Buyers – 1.14:1, -11.18% From Current Price Level
$412 – Sellers – 1.25:1, -12.03% From Current Price Level
$408 – Sellers – 1.9:1, -12.88% From Current Price Level
$404 – Buyers – 6.67:1, -13.74% From Current Price Level
$400 – Buyers – 2:1, -14.59% From Current Price Level
$396 – Buyers – 2.22:1, -15.45% From Current Price Level
$392 – Sellers – 1.07:1, -16.3% From Current Price Level
$388 – Buyers – 2:1, -17.15% From Current Price Level
$384 – Buyers – 1.47:1, -18.01% From Current Price Level
$380 – Buyers – 1.09:1, -18.86% From Current Price Level
$376 – Sellers – 1.46:1, -19.72% From Current Price Level
$372 – Buyers – 1.09:1, -20.57% From Current Price Level
$368 – Buyers – 1.32:1, -21.42% From Current Price Level
$364 – Buyers – 2.5:1, -22.28% From Current Price Level
$360 – Buyers – 1.63:1, -23.13% From Current Price Level
$356 – NULL – 0:0*, -23.99% From Current Price Level
$352 – Buyers – 0.6:0*, -24.84% From Current Price Level
$348 – Buyers – 1.18:1, -25.7% From Current Price Level
$344 – NULL – 0:0*, -26.55% From Current Price Level
$340 – Buyers – 14:1, -27.4% From Current Price Level
$336 – Buyers – 1.31:1, -28.26% From Current Price Level
$332 – Sellers – 1.15:1, -29.11% From Current Price Level
$328 – Buyers – 2.25:1, -29.97% From Current Price Level
$324 – Buyers – 1.63:1, -30.82% From Current Price Level
$320 – Even – 1:1, -31.67% From Current Price Level
$316 – Buyers – 1.16:1, -32.57% From Current Price Level
$312 – Sellers – 1.15:1, -33.38% From Current Price Level
$308 -Sellers – 1.26:1, -34.24% From Current Price Level
$304 – Sellers – 2:1, -35.09% From Current Price Level
$300 – Buyers – 1.32:1, -35.94% From Current Price Level
$296 – Sellers – 1.44:1, -36.8% From Current Price Level
$292 – Sellers – 1.61:1, -37.65% From Current Price Level
$288 – Sellers – 1.5:1, -38.51% From Current Price Level
$284 – Sellers – 1.6:1, -39.36% From Current Price Level
$280 – Sellers – 6:1, -40.21% From Current Price Level
$276 – Sellers – 2.29:1, -41.07% From Current Price Level
$272 – Sellers – 0.3:0*, -41.92% From Current Price Level
*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM OR DIA AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***