This week we will begin to hear about the impact that Covid has had on Black Friday & Cyber Monday, which will be a great barometer of consumer sentiment for a year that has hurt many financially.
Another item of interest will be to see not only how Covid cases/deaths continue to climb & where, but how drastic the “lockdown” measures taken to combat it will be.
I will also be interested in hearing more about Flu numbers, as we are in full on flu season now, and it isn’t sounding like that bad of a year, which raises suspicion on Covid reporting.
On Tuesday Powell will be testifying, when we also get the ISM Manufacturing PMI number, as well as the ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index, ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid & Employment Index numbers as well.
Wednesday brings the ADP Employment Change report, which will be interesting to see how seasonal jobs that may have been taken in year’s prior for the Christmas season fared due to Covid restrictions.
I’ll also be interested that day in the EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change, as well as the Fed’s Beige Book & Williams’s speech.
Thursday’s Initial Jobless Claims & 4-Week Average numbers will bring more clarity on the current employment situation, as well as shed light into how many jobs are still being lost as more & more companies are forced to reduce workforces due to virus restrictions; the ISM Services PMI will also be reported on Thursday.
Lastly, on Friday we will get to hear the Nonfarm Payrolls report, Trade Balance Numbers & Factory Orders M-o-M, all of which will help shed light into how the economy looks to be heading as we begin winter.
While markets tend to perform well in December, at/near all-time highs, any one bad report that doesn’t meet anticipated expectations may cause some of the jenga pieces to fall, providing a new entry point for market participants.
Lots of folks have been saying that they see it occurring in January 2021, but when markets are running this hot, any hiccups in data are prone to start a correction in prices.