Last week we saw a lot of market action. Powell paid for us all to come out to dinner, and then the check came come Thursday… Will Mnuchin leave a big enough tip for our tab to keep the party up?
Last week was a big gainer, I sold a lot of $UXVY, $SPXS & $SQQQ calls I had been building up over the previous weeks, and had a 57%+ week.
I have some short & long options on the table still, and have trimmed a lot of long positions to pivot them into existing yield-plays & new value/growth opportunities, some of which I outlined in my other posts today, with Magna International Inc, MGA & Cummins Inc., CMI and a handful of other names.
I also picked up some Hertz $HTZ puts last week, which have already turned a slight profit. I am interested in seeing how their restructuring/new offering plays out, but I don’t see any magic share-price recovery based on the existing options they have.
What I’m Watching For The Market This Week
It’s safe to say we all know that civil unrest is causing domestic issues in the US, and attracting international ridicule (although mostly as a deflection tactic when we look at the main aggressors).
COVID-19 is alive & thriving, although now hospitals seem to at least be resourced enough to get by and take regular patients who have issues that need to be seen.
I want to see how the numbers of COVID move, in relation especially to the areas of protesting, given that most of these folks are not socially-distanced, and not wearing masks.
It will be especially interesting for the sake of assessing where we are at with COVID to learn how it is impacting residents & police/front-line workers in these areas, as well as people in the new “CHAZ commune”.
Powell speaks this week, and Japan announces rates, pair this up with Trump/Mnuchin comments, and increasing international tensions, I’m not really sure where we go.
Retail Sales & Building Permits numbers will also be interesting to see, especially with how they relate to the new Unemployment Numbers on top of the existing trend.
My Week’s Market Plans
As previously mentioned, I’m not certain where I am sitting for tomorrow. I will be watching the futures all night, as it is tough to gauge the reaction to an overinflated market that has gapped down on a Thursday with a filled-green candlestick on Friday…
Almost as if there was overnight dip-buying in futures, which carried over early, and then gains began being tapered off immediately Friday.
I still have some short index ETF & long VIX calls I’ll be working with, and am planning to build upon my existing longs & some call positions, but how I balance everything will depend on how the week goes.
I don’t see markets going to the March lows, but I am eyeing S&P 500 at 3,000 as well as at the 2,900-2,950 range. The NASDAQ is more likely to move based on virus vaccine & tech movements, so S&P seems to be a better gauge at the moment, especially given how they’ve diverged this year.