Since our last check-in on Volume Sentiment Analysis in October markets have continued to slowly grind higher, with most of the gains for SPY & QQQ coming as a result of gaps up in late October, while IWM & DIA have continued higher in a more consistent fashion.
While this comes as no surprise as the two pairs have moved relatively in tandem for some time, something interesting to observe is that the NASDAQ is the only one that seems to of recent have a difficult time finding the power to break out & make a run at their all-time high, while the other three indexes are at/near per Friday’s close.
More concerning is that it has been unable to break out above the two resistance levels that seperate it from its all-time high, despite the strength of the technology names powering markets higher over the past couple of years.
Whether this is indicative of a rotation from tech names into other sectors or not for the long-term is yet to be determined, but is certainly something to be keeping an eye on.
Friday, the VIX closed at 14.49, indicating an implied one day move range of +/-0.91% & an implied one month move range of +/-4.19% for the S&P 500.
As a reminder, SPY’s beta is 1, QQQ’s beta is 1.14, IWM’s is 1.34 & DIA’s is 0.99 for perspective on how that VIX reading will impact other major indexes.
Aside from the lowered back-to-back shortened weeks, DIA has been the only index ETF of the above that has seen strong volume in the first week back of trading vs. the prior year’s average levels & even that was subpar.
For perspective, last week in the first full trading week after two shortened holiday weeks SPY traded on volume that was -7.57% than the prior year’s average (66,880,000 vs. 72,361,230), QQQ was -15.62% lower than the prior year’s average (41,100,000 vs. 48,710,996), IWM traded on -13.89% less volume than the prior year’s average (30,455,000 vs. 35,366,494) & DIA was only -2.47% lower than the prior year’s average (4,177,500 vs. 4,283,347).
This signals that there is some skepticism creeping into all but the blue chip names (despite IWM having the strongest week of the four majors mentioned).
Earnings season is upon us this coming week, and we are still getting delayed data from the government shutdown released as well, which when coupled with some of the international headlines we’re seeing may provide some interesting volatility near these all-time high levels that lack volume sentiment to support price levels & signal there is uncertainty brewing.
With that said, it is a great time to check in on the historic volume sentiments for each of the four major index ETFs mentioned above in order to assess the historic strength/weakness of support/resistance levels & shed insight into what may be coming next.
Each section below contains a view of each index ETF’s chart (for a technical breakdown of each’s chart, see last week’s market review note, this week’s will be published tomorrow), as well as a list of their current one year support & resistance levels with the volume sentiment noted beneath it on the table.
There is an additional table beneath this table with each price level’s sentiment, as well as a typed text version below that is able to be copied & pasted.
Note that “NULL, 0:0*” values denote areas that each name has traded at (or gapped through, in some instances) but with limited volume data to work with from a comparison standpoint in terms of creating a ratio of buyers:sellers (or vice versa) or is the outlier above the highest/lowest level with price data.
Also, prices that do have a ratio of Buyers:Sellers (Sellers:Buyers) where the denominator is 0 are denoted with an asterisk “*”.
In the written lists of the price levels & volume sentiments the price levels that contain support & resistance levels are marked in BOLD.
Recall that at price extremes such as the highs that we have recently hit there will tend to be skewed data due to the small sample size & factor that into how you interpret each price level’s reported sentiment.
This is intended to serve as an additional tool, similar to a barometer to use during your due diligence process & is not meant to replace doing your own research & is not financial advice.
Price Level:Volume Sentiment Analysis For SPY, The SPDR S&P 500 ETF
SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF set a new all-time high on Friday, although recent volumes have pointed to weakening senitment among market participants & a more wait-and-see approach heading into the new year.
Headng into the upcoming earnings season their Bollinger Bands appear primed to expand by mid-week, but given SPY is near such price extremes & geo-political uncertainty, as well as internal U.S. disruptions it is unclear whether it will be for the better or for the worse in terms of where price goes from there.
Throw in a slew of Fed speakers, CPI for the current month, as well as a delayed CPI report from the government shutdown, PPI data & potential earnings surprises & the uncertainty grows even more.
With that in mind, it is a good time to check in with how SPY’s volume sentiment has been at historic price levels to gain insight into how future performance may go, particularly at support & resistance levels.
Before reading the chart below, note that at price extreme such as where we stand today with SPY things will skew towards the bullish (Buyers) or bearish (Sellers) side where price resides, making the current situation Buyer heavy in local support levels.
The table below outlines SPY’s volume sentiment from the past ~3 years by price level at their one year support/resistance levels, with a more comprehensive list of all levels beneath it.
Below that is a copy & pasteable list of the data.
This is a barometer to aid in research & due diligence and is not financial advice.
$690 – NULL – 0:0*, -0.59% From Current Price Level – Current Price Level & All-Time High**
$685 – Buyers – 3.4:0*, -1.31% From Current Price Level – 10 Day Moving Average*
$680 – Buyers – 6.23:1, -2.03% From Current Price Level
$675 – Sellers – 1.28:1, -2.75% From Current Price Level – 50 Day Moving Average*
$670 Buyers – 1.4:1, -3.47% From Current Price Level
$665 – Sellers – 1.26:1, -4.19% From Current Price Level
$660 – Buyers, 2.52:1, -4.91% From Current Price Level
$655 – Sellers – 1.55:1, -5.63% From Current Price Level
$650 – Sellers – 4.56:1, -6.35% From Current Price Level
$645 – Buyers – 3.6:0*, -7.07% From Current Price Level
$640 – Buyers – 2.22:1, -7.79% From Current Price Level
$635 – Sellers – 4:1, -8.51% From Current Price Level
$630 – Sellers – 1.45:1, -9.23% From Current Price Level
$625 – Buyers – 1.53:1, -9.95% From Current Price Level – 200 Day Moving Average*
$620 – Buyers, 1.86:1, -10.67% From Current Price Level
$615 – Sellers – 4.5:1, -11.39% From Current Price Level
$610 – Buyers – 2.86:1, -12.11% From Current Price Level
$605 – Buyers – 1.2:0*, -12.83% From Current Price Level
$600 – Buyers – 2.6:1, -13.55% From Current Price Level
$595 – Buyers – 2.42:1, -14.27% From Current Price Level
$590 – Sellers – 1.74:1, -14.99% From Current Price Level
$585 – Buyers – 2.71:1, -15.71% From Current Price Level
$580 – Buyers – 1.71:1, -16.43% From Current Price Level
$575 – Sellers – 1.66:1, -17.16% From Current Price Level
$570 – Sellers – 1.55:1, -17.88% From Current Price Level
$565 – Buyers, 1.63:1, -18.6% From Current Price Level
$560 – Buyers, 1.84:1, -19.32% From Current Price Level
$555 – Buyers – 1.06:1, -20.04% From Current Price Level
$550 – Buyers – 1.76:1, -20.76% From Current Price Level
$545 – Buyers – 1.25:1, -21.48% From Current Price Level
$540 – Buyers – 3.32:1, -22.2% From Current Price Level
$535 – Buyers – 2:1, -22.92% From Current Price Level
$530 – Sellers – 1.42:1, -23.64% From Current Price Level
$525 – Buyers – 3.14:1, -24.36% From Current Price Level
$520 – Buyers – 1.09:1, -25.08% From Current Price Level
$515 – Buyers- 2.75:1, -25.8% From Current Price Level
$510 – Sellers – 1.23:1, -26.52% From Current Price Level
$505 -Buyers – 1.43:1, -27.24% From Current Price Level
$500 – Sellers – 2.02:1, -27.96% From Current Price Level
$496 – Sellers – 1.7:1, -28.54% From Current Price Level
$492 – Sellers – 1.59:1, -29.11% From Current Price Level
$488 – Sellers – 1.82:1, -29.69% From Current Price Level
$484 – Buyers – 1.04:1, -30.27% From Current Price Level
$480 – Sellers – 1.11:1, -30.84% From Current Price Level
$476 – Buyers – 5:1, -31.42% From Current Price Level
$472 – Buyers – 1.88:1. -32% From Current Price Level
$468 – Buyers – 1.5:1, -32.57% From Current Price Level
$464 – Buyers- 5.88:1, -33.15% From Current Price Level
$460 – Sellers – 1.28:1, -33.72% From Current Price Level
$456 – Sellers – 1.42:1, -34.3% From Current Price Level
$452 – NULL – 0:0*, -34.88% From Current Price Level
$448 – Buyers – 1.5:0*, -35.45% From Current Price Level
$444 – Buyers – 2.7:0*, -36.03% From Current Price Level
$440 – Buyers – 1.48:1, -36.61% From Current Price Level
$436 – Buyers – 4:1, -37.18% From Current Price Level
$432 – Sellers – 1.64:1, -37.76% From Current Price Level
$428 – Buyers – 1.19:1, -38.33% From Current Price Level
$424 – Buyers – 1.10:1, -38.91% From Current Price Level
$420 – Buyers – 1.69:1, -39.49% From Current Price Level
$416 – Sellers – 1.45:1, -40.06% From Current Price Level
$412 – Sellers – 1.09:1, -40.64% From Current Price Level
$408 – Sellers – 2.25:1, -41.22% From Current Price Level
$404 – Buyers – 5.6:1, -41.79% From Current Price Level
$400 – Buyers – 1.16:1, -42.37% From Current Price Level
$396 – Buyers – 1.08:1, -42.95% From Current Price Level
$392 – Sellers – 1.27:1, -43.52% From Current Price Level
$388 – Buyers – 1.02:1, -44.1% From Current Price Level
$384 – Buyers – 3.57:1, -44.67% From Current Price Level
$380 – Buyers – 1.47:1, -45.25% From Current Price Level
$376 – Sellers – 1.6:1, -45.83% From Current Price Level
$372 – Sellers – 1.85:1, -46.4% From Current Price Level
$368 – Sellers – 3.9:1, -46.98% From Current Price Level
$364 – Sellers – 1.8:0*, -47.56% From Current Price Level
$360 – NULL – 0:0*, -48.13% From Current Price Level
Price Level:Volume Sentiment Analysis For QQQ, The Invesco QQQ Trust ETF
QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF has not performed as well as SPY in recent weeks/months, as it has been unable to break out above the two resistance levels that seperate it from its all-timehigh, signaling a shift away from its tech heavy components & possible rotation play at foot.
They also look poised for more incoming volatility like SPY, which adds wonder to what comes next, as if there’s a risk-off or rotation away from tech-names support strength will become increasingly more important.
Reference the tables below to accompany your research & aid in assessing your views on the strength/weakness of support/resistance levels.
Also, note that while most of their local support levels are Buyer oriented, that many levels’ ratios will be diluted/switch to Seller zones in re-tests/declines & to assess the strength of levels in relation to the strength of their ratios due to price extremes.
$635 – NULL – 0:0*, +1.33% From Current Price Level – All-Time High*
$630 – Buyers – 4:0*, +0.53% From Current Price Level
$625 – Buyers – 2.75:1, -0.26% From Current Price Level – Current Price Level*
$620 – Buyers – 1.23:1, -1.06% From Current Price Level – 10 Day Moving Average*
$615 – Buyers – 1.22:1, -1.86% From Current Price Level – 50 Day Moving Averages*
$610 – Buyers – 1.04:1, -2.66% From Current Price Level
$605 – Buyers – 1.21:1, -3.45% From Current Price Level
$600 – Buyers – 1.78:1, -4.25% From Current Price Level
$595 – Sellers – 1.45:1, -5.05% From Current Price Level
$590 – Buyers – 1.59:1, -5.85% From Current Price Level
$585 – Sellers – 1.31:1, -6.65% From Current Price Level
$580 – Sellers – 2.33:1, -7.44% From Current Price Level
$575 – Buyers – 2.23:1, -8.24% From Current Price Level
$570 – Buyers – 10:1, -9.04% From Current Price Level
$565 – Buyers – 1.17:1,-9.84% From Current Price Level
$560 – Sellers – 1.03:1, -10.64% From Current Price Level – 200 Day Moving Average*
$555 – Sellers – 1.5:1, -11.43% From Current Price Level
$550 – Buyers – 1.04:1, -12.23% From Current Price Level
$545 – Buyers – 1.71:1, -13.03% From Current Price Level
$540 – Buyers – 1:0*, -13.83% From Current Price Level
$535 – Buyers – 3.8:0*, -14.63% From Current Price Level
$530 – Buyers – 2.19:1, 15.42% From Current Price Level
$525 – Buyers – 1.84:1, -16.22% From Current Price Level
$520 – Buyers – 1.26:1, -17.02% From Current Price Level
$515 – Buyers – 1.15:1, -17.82% From Current Price Level
$510 – Sellers – 1.31:1, -18.61% From Current Price Level
$505 – Sellers – 1.5:1, -19.41% From Current Price Level
$500 – Buyers – 1.22:1, -20.21% From Current Price Level
$496 – Buyers – 1.24:1, -20.85% From Current Price Level
$492 – Sellers – 1.30:1, -21.49% From Current Price Level
$488 – Buyers – 10:1, -22.13% From Current Price Level
$484 – Buyers – 1.5:1, -22.76% From Current Price Level
$480 – Buyers – 1.10:1, -23.4% From Current Price Level
$476 – Buyers – 1.4:1, -24.04% From Current Price Level
$472 – Buyers – 2.29:1, -24.68% From Current Price Level
$468 – Sellers – 1.03:1, -25.32% From Current Price Level
$464 – Sellers – 1.10:1, -25.96% From Current Price Level
$460 – NULL – 0:0*, -26.59% From Current Price Level
$456 – Buyers – 1.85:1, -27.23% From Current Price Level
$452 – Buyers – 4.7:0*, -27.87% From Current Price Level
$448 – Sellers – 1.7:1, -28.51% From Current Price Level
$444 – Sellers – 3.11:1, -29.15% From Current Price Level
$440 – Sellers – 1.77:1, -29.79% From Current Price Level
$436 – NULL – 0:0*, -30.42% From Current Price Level
$432 – Buyers – 1.6:0*, -31.06% From Current Price Level
$428 – Sellers – 4.8:0*, 31.7% From Current Price Level
$424 – NULL – 0:0*, -32.34% From Current Price Level
$420 – Buyers – 1.33:1, -32.98% From Current Price Level
$416 – NULL – 0:0*, -33.62% From Current Price Level
$412 – Sellers – 3.6:0*, -34.25% From Current Price Level
$408 – NULL – 0:0*, -34.89% From Current Price Level
Price Level:Volume Sentiment Analysis For IWM, The iShares Russell 2000 ETF
IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF just set a new all-time high after their last one came one month ago, as small cap names have continued to climb in the new year.
Their Bollinger Bands also look primed to expand soon, indicating heightened volatility on the horizon which will prove interesting in the coming weeks based on the catalysts mentioned in the first section, particularly seeing how they move-in relation to DIA, the blue chip index.
While their primary support levels are all currently NULL or Buyer dominated due to price extremes, watch for dilution of wider ratios in the coming weeks & assess strength/weakness according to them.
$260 – NULL – 0:0*, -0.09% From Current Price Level – All-Time High & Current Price Level**
$256 – NULL – 0:0*, -1.63% From Current Price Level
$252 – NULL – 0:0*, -3.16% From Current Price Level – 10 Day Moving Average*
$248 – Buyers – 4.67:1, -4.7% From Current Price Level
$244 – Buyers – 1.32:1, -6.24% From Current Price Level – 50 Day Moving Average*
$240 – Buyers – 1.22:1, -7.77% From Current Price Level
$236 – Buyers – 1.57:1, -9.31% From Current Price Level
$232 – Buyers – 1.19:1, -10.85% From Current Price Level
$228 – Sellers – 2.79:1, -12.39% From Current Price Level
$224 – Buyers – 1.59:1, -13.92% From Current Price Level
$220 – Buyers – 1.19:1, -15.46% From Current Price Level
$216 – Buyers – 1.25:1, -17% From Current Price Level
$212 – Sellers – 1.13:1, -18.53% From Current Price Level
$208 – Buyers – 1.45:1, -20.07% From Current Price Level
$204 – Buyers – 1.17:1, -21.61% From Current Price Level
$200 – Buyers – 1.19:1, -23.14% From Current Price Level
$198 – Buyers -1.02:1, -23.91% From Current Price Level
$196 – Sellers – 1.48:1, -24.68% From Current Price Level
$194 – Buyers – 2.31:1, -25.45% From Current Price Level
$192 – Buyers – 2.05:1, -26.22% From Current Price Level
$190 – Sellers – 1.46:1, -26.99% From Current Price Level
$188 – Sellers – 1.93:1, -27.76% From Current Price Level
$186 – Buyers – 1.12:1, -28.52% From Current Price Level
$184 – Buyers – 1.67:1, -29.29% From Current Price Level
$182 – Buyers – 1.64:1, -30.06% From Current Price Level
$180 – Buyers – 1.44:1, -30.83% From Current Price Level
$178 – Sellers – 1.56:1, -31.6% From Current Price Level
$176 – Sellers – 8.75:1, -32.37% From Current Price Level
$174 – Buyers – 1.86:1, -33.14% From Current Price Level
$172 – Buyers – 1.41:1, -30.9% From Current Price Level
$170 – Even – 1:1, -34.67% From Current Price Level
$168 – Buyers – 2:1, -35.44% From Current Price Level
$166 – Sellers – 2.3:1, -36.21% From Current Price Level
$164 – Sellers – 1.07:1, -36.98% From Current Price Level
$162 – Sellers – 3:1, -37.75% From Current Price Level
$160 – Buyers – 1.67:1, -38.52% From Current Price Level
$158 – Buyers – 1.1:1, -39.28% From Current Price Level
Price Level:Volume Sentiment Analysis For DIA, The SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF
DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF is just off of all-time highs, but has had the most robust volumes in the first full trading week of the year (still below average).
While the blue chip index has remained resilient due to the buy-and-hold nature of its components, it should be noted that their first support levels is in a Seller zone historically.
While expectations say Buy-and-Hold prevails, any meaningful decline (particularly for SPY or QQQ) may result in position liquidation.
The charts below can be useful in navigating the road ahead for DIA near these all-time high levels.
$496 – NULL – 0:0*, +0.2% From Current Price Level – All Time High*
$492 – NULL – 0:0*, -0.61% From Current Price Level – Current Price Level*
$488 – NULL – 0:0*, -1.42% From Current Price Level – 10 Day Moving Average*
$484 – NULL – 0:0*, -2.23% From Current Price Level
$480 – Buyers – 0.8:0*, -3.03% From Current Price Level
$476 – Buyers – 0.8:0*, -3.84% From Current Price Level – 50 Day Moving Average*
$472 – Buyers – 1.19:1, -4.65% From Current Price Level
$468 – Buyers – 1.5:1, -5.46% From Current Price Level
$464 – Sellers – 1.17:1, -6.27% From Current Price Level
$460 – Buyers – 7:1, -7.07% From Current Price Level
$456 – Sellers – 1.5:1, -7.88% From Current Price Level
$452 – Sellers – 10.73:1, -8.69% From Current Price Level
$448 – Sellers – 6.33:1, -9.5% From Current Price Level
$444 – Buyers – 2.27:1, -10.31% From Current Price Level – 200 Day Moving Averge*
$440 – Buyers – 1.5:1, -11.11% From Current Price Level
$436 – Sellers – 1.46:1, -11.92% From Current Price Level
$432 – Buyers – 1.29:1, -12.73% From Current Price Level
$428 – Buyers – 2.38:1, -13.54% From Current Price Level
$424 – Buyers – 1.11:1, -14.35% From Current Price Level
$420 – Buyers – 2.53:1, -15.15% From Current Price Level
$416 – Sellers – 1.26:1, -15.96% From Current Price Level
$412 – Buyers – 1.58:1, -16.77% From Current Price Level
$408 – Sellers – 2.73:1, -17.58% From Current Price Level
$404 – Buyers – 1.88:1, -18.39% From Current Price Level
$400 – Buyers – 2.83:1, -19.2% From Current Price Level
$396 – Buyers – 1.67:1, -20% From Current Price Level
$392 – Sellers – 2:1, -20.81% From Current Price Level
$388 – Buyers – 2.11:1, -21.62% From Current Price Level
$384 – Buyers – 2.22:1, -22.43% From Current Price Level
$380 – Sellers – 2.85:1, -23.24% From Current Price Level
$376 – Sellers – 1.04:1, -24.04% From Current Price Level
$372 – Even – 1:1, -24.85% From Current Price Level
$368 – Buyers – 1.11:1, -25.66% From Current Price Level
$364 – Buyers – 1.65:1, -26.47% From Current Price Level
$360 – Buyers – 1.6:1, -27.28% From Current Price Level
$360 – Buyers – 1.6:1, -28.08% From Current Price Level
$356 – Even – 1:1, -28.89% From Current Price Level
$352 – Buyers – 0.8:0*, -28.89% From Current Price Level
$348 – Sellers – 1.15:1, -29.7% From Current Price Level
$344 – Buyers – 0.4:0*, -30.51% From Current Price Level
$340 – Buyers – 12:1, -31.32% From Current Price Level
$336 – Buyers – 1.19:1, -32.12% From Current Price Level
$332 -Buyers – 1.38:1, -32.93% From Current Price Level
$328 – Buyers – 1.65:1, -33.74% From Current Price Level
$324 – Buyers – 1.90:1, -34.55% From Current Price Level
$320 – Even – 1:1*, -35.36% From Current Price Level
$316 – Buyers – 1.05:1, -36.16% From Current Price Level
$312 – Sellers – 1.45:1, -36.97% From Current Price Level
$308 – Buyers – 1.25:1, -37.78% From Current Price Level
$304 – Sellers – 1.08:1, -38.59% From Current Price Level
$300 – Sellers – 1.44:1, -39.4% From Current Price Level
$296 – Buyers – 1.92:1, -40.2% From Current Price Level
$292 – Sellers – 1.5:1, -41.01% From Current Price Level
$288 – Sellers – 1.19:1, -41.82% From Current Price Level
$284 – Sellers – 2.92:1, -42.63% From Current Price Level
$280 – Sellers – 1.83:1, -43.44% From Current Price Level
$276 – Sellers – 1.67:1, -44.24% From Current Price Level
$272 – Sellers – 1.6:0*, -45.05% From Current Price Level
*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM OR DIA AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***