Category: Market News, Research & Commentary

Since our last Volume Sentiment Analysis SPY, QQQ, IWM & DIA have continued to reach new all-time highs, but things have become to look less & less stable & sustainable, making it a great time to check in on historic volume sentiments.

Last night the VIX closed at 15.35, indicating an implied one day move range of +/-0.97% & an implied one month move range of +/-4.44% & it seems more likely it’ll heat up than cool down in the near-to-mid-term.

Volumes have been questionable-to-unstable at best (see this week’s market review note) & AI/related-tech has clearly become the long-shot bet that has not proven itself & is not fully prepared to scale at the rates forecasters are projecting (pending a lot of other changes in other sectors & infrastructure), yet is fueling the mania.

This makes it worth checking in on historic volume sentiments in the event of near-term re-tests to assess the strength/weakness of support/resistance levels for the major index ETFs.

Each section below contains a view of each index ETF’s chart (for a technical breakdown of each’s chart, see the link above for last week’s note), as well as a list of their current one year support & resistance levels with the volume sentiment noted beneath it on the table.

There is an additional table beneath this table with each price level’s sentiment, as well as a typed text version below that is able to be copied & pasted.

Note that “NULL, 0:0*” values denote areas that each name has traded at but with limited volume data to work with from a comparison standpoint in terms of creating a ratio of buyers:sellers (or vice versa) or is the outlier above the highest/lowest level with price data.

Also, prices that do have a ratio of Buyers:Sellers (Sellers:Buyers) where the denominator is 0 are denoted with an asterisk “*” as well.

In the written lists of the price levels & volume sentiments the price levels that contain support & resistance levels are marked in BOLD.

Recall that at price extremes such as the highs that we have recently hit there will tend to be skewed data due to the small sample size & factor that into how you interpret each price level’s reported sentiment.

This is intended to serve as an additional tool, similar to a barometer to use during your due diligence process & is not meant to replace doing your own research & is not financial advice.

Price Level:Volume Sentiment Analysis For SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF is still hovering around it’s upper Bollinger band intraday, but is beginning to show signs of overextension, particularly due to the volume/participation rate.

For a deeper dive into SPY’s technicals, see the link to the market review note above.

$655 – NULL – 0:0*, +0.00% From Current Price Level – Current Price Level*

$650 – NULL – 0:0*, -0.76% From Current Price Level

$645 – NULL – 0:0*, -1.53% From Current Price Level – 10 Day Moving Average*

$640 – NULL – 0:0*, -2.29% From Current Price Level

$635 – Sellers – 1.24:1, -3.05% From Current Price Level – 50 Day Moving Average*

$630 – Buyers – 1.09:1, -3.82% From Current Price Level

$625 – Buyers – 2.46:1, -4.58% From Current Price Level

$620 – Sellers – 1.61:1, -5.34% From Current Price Level

$615 – Buyers – 1.8:1, -6.11% From Current Price Level

$610 – Buyers – 1.5:0*, -6.87% From Current Price Level

$605 – Buyers – 3.83:1, -7.63% From Current Price Level

$600 – Buyers – 12.2:1, -8.4% From Current Price Level

$595 – Sellers – 2.08:1, -9.16% From Current Price Level

$590 – Buyers – 1.3:1, -9.93% From Current Price Level – 200 Day Moving Average*

$585 – Buyers – 2.67:1, -10.69% From Current Price Level

$580 – Sellers – 2.81:1, -11.45% From Current Price Level

$575 – Buyers – 1.74:1, -12.22% From Current Price Level

$570 – Even – 1:1, -12.98% From Current Price Level

$565 – Buyers – 1.5:1, -13.74% From Current Price Level

$560 – Sellers – 1.07:1, -14.51% From Current Price Level

$555 – Buyers – 3.53:1, -15.27% From Current Price Level

$550 – Buyers – 1.24:1, -16.03% From Current Price Level

$545 – Buyers – 2.24:1, -16.8% From Current Price Level

$540 – Buyers – 1.67:1, -17.56% From Current Price Level

$535 – Sellers – 1.11:1, -18.32% From Current Price Level

$530 – Buyers – 1.67:1, -19.09% From Current Price Level

$525 – Buyers – 1.92:1, -19.85% From Current Price Level

$520 – Buyers – 1.33:1, -20.61% From Current Price Level

$515 – Buyers – 4:1, -21.38% From Current Price Level

$510 – Sellers – 1.41:1, -22.14% From Current Price Level

$505 – Buyers – 1.2:1, -22.9% From Current Price Level

$500 – Sellers – 2.05:1, -23.57% From Current Price Level

$496 – Buyers – 1.24:1, -24.28% From Current Price Level

$492 – Sellers – 7.83:1, -24.89% From Current Price Level

$488 – Buyers – 1.61:1, -25.5% From Current Price Level

$484 – Sellers – 1.2:1, -26.11% From Current Price Level

$480 – Buyers – 1.27:1, -26.72% From Current Price Level

$476 – Buyers – 2.33:1, -27.33% From Current Price Level

$472 – Buyers – 1.91:1, -27.94% From Current Price Level

$468 – NULL – 0:0*, -28.55% From Current Price Level

$464 – Buyers – 1.83:1, -29.16% From Current Price Level

$460 – Sellers – 1.52:1, -29.77% From Current Price Level

$456 – Buyers – 1.13:1, -30.38% From Current Price Level

$452 – Buyers – 0.7:0*, -30.99% From Current Price Level

$448 – Buyers – 2:0*, -31.6% From Current Price Level

$444 – Buyers – 1.42:1, -32.21% From Current Price Level

$440 – Buyers – 2.78:1, -32.83% From Current Price Level

$436 – Buyers – 1.87:1, -33.44% From Current Price Level

$432 – Sellers – 1.58:1, -34.05% From Current Price Level

$428 – Buyers – 1.22:1, -34.66% From Current Price Level

$424 – Buyers – 1.92:1, -35.27% From Current Price Level

$420 – Sellers – 1.68:1, -35.88% From Current Price Level

$416 – Buyers – 1.08:1, -36.49% From Current Price Level

$412 – Buyers – 1.31:1, -37.1% From Current Price Level

$408 – Sellers – 1.63:1, -37.71% From Current Price Level

$404 – Buyers – 1.95:1, -38.32% From Current Price Level

$400 – Buyers – 2.51:1, -38.93% From Current Price Level

$396 – Sellers – 1.8:1, -39.54% From Current Price Level

$392 – Sellers – 1.97:1, -40.15% From Current Price Level

$388 – Buyers – 5:1, -40.76% From Current Price Level

$384 – Buyers – 1.67:1, -41.37% From Current Price Level

$380 – Buyers – 1.39:1, -41.99% From Current Price Level

$376 – Sellers – 2.47:1, -42.6% From Current Price Level

$372 – Sellers – 2.11:1, -43.21% From Current Price Level

$368 – Sellers – 2:1, -43.82% From Current Price Level

$364 – Sellers – 1.28:1, -44.43% From Current Price Level

$360 – Buyers – 1.11:1, -45.04% From Current Price Level

$356 – Buyers – 1.43:1, -45.65% From Current Price Level

$352 – Buyers – 1.67:1, -46.26% From Current Price Level

$348 – Sellers – 0.9:0*, -46.87% From Current Price Level

$344 – NULL – 0:0*, -47.48% From Current Price Level

Price Level:Volume Sentiment Analysis For QQQ, The Invesco QQQ Trust ETF

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF has also benefitted from the AI/tech boom, but has shown a more conservative performance of recent vs. SPY.

Given the heights & gappy performance of recent from QQQ components the table below can serve as a barometer for how they may perform in coming re-tests for market participants.

$585 – NULL – 0:0*, +0.34% From Current Price Level

$580 – Buyers – 2:0*, -0.52% From Current Price Level – Current Price Level*

$575 – Sellers – 1.3:1, -1.38% From Current Price Level – 10 Day Moving Average*

$570 – Buyers – 1.79:1, -2.24% From Current Price Level

$565 – Sellers – 1.28:1, -3.09% From Current Price Level – 50 Day Moving Average*

$560 – Sellers – 1.18:1, -3.95% From Current Price Level

$555 – Buyers – 6.25:1, -4.81% From Current Price Level

$550 – Sellers – 1.28:1, -5.67% From Current Price Level

$545 – Buyers – 1.92:1, -6.52% From Current Price Level

$540 – Buyers – 1:0*, -7.38% From Current Price Level

$535 – Buyers – 5.5:1, -8.24% From Current Price Level

$530 – Buyers – 3.45:1, -9.1% From Current Price Level

$525 – Buyers – 1.11:1, -9.95% From Current Price Level

$520 – Buyers – 1.84:1, -10.81% From Current Price Level – 200 Day Moving Average*

$515 – Buyers – 1.1:1, -11.67% From Current Price Level

$510 – Sellers – 2.04:1, -12.53% From Current Price Level

$505 – Sellers – 1.42:1, -13.39% From Current Price Level

$500 – Buyers – 1.79:1, -14.24% From Current Price Level

$496 – Buyers – 1.17:1, -14.93% From Current Price Level

$492 – Buyers – 1.49:1, -15.61% From Current Price Level

$488 – Buyers – 2.58:1, -16.3% From Current Price Level

$484 – Buyers – 1.17:1, -16.99% From Current Price Level

$480 – Buyers – 1.35:1, -17.67% From Current Price Level

$476 – Sellers – 1.06:1, -18.36% From Current Price Level

$472 – Buyers – 1.69:1, -19.05% From Current Price Level

$468 – Sellers – 2.68:1, -19.73% From Current Price Level

$464 – Buyers – 5.46:1, -20.42% From Current Price Level

$460 – Buyers – 1.79:1, -21.1% From Current Price Level

$456 – Buyers – 1.48:1, -21.79% From Current Price Level

$452 – Buyers – 1.17:1, -22.48% From Current Price Level

$448 – Even – 1:1, -23.16% From Current Price Level

$444 – Sellers – 2.25:1, -23.85% From Current Price Level

$440 – Sellers – 1.31:1, -24.53% From Current Price Level

$436 – Buyers – 1.6:0*, -25.22% From Current Price Level

$432 – Sellers – 4.6:0*, -25.91% From Current Price Level

$428 – NULL – 0:0*, -26.59% From Current Price Level

$424 – NULL – 0:0*, -27.28% From Current Price Level

$420 – Buyers – 1.43:1, -27.96% From Current Price Level

$416 – NULL – 0:0*, -28.65% From Current Price Level

$412 – Sellers – 3.5:0*, -29.34% From Current Price Level

$408 – NULL – 0:0*, -30.02% From Current Price Level

Price Level:Volume Sentiment Analysis For IWM, The iShares Russell 2000 ETF

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF has moved along at a slower pace than its larger part index ETFs, but its movements in the future will be dictated in part by theirs.

With that said, the table data below can help aid in assessing the strength/weakness of the small cap index’s support/resistance levels.

$244 – NULL – 0:0*, +3.12% From Current Price Level

$240 – Buyers – 0.4:0*, +1.43% From Current Price Level

$236 – Buyers – 2.1:1, -0.26% From Current Price Level – Current Price Level & 10 Day Moving Average**

$232 – Buyers – 1.03:1, -1.95% From Current Price Level

$228 – Buyers – 1.27:1, -3.64% From Current Price Level

$224 – Buyers – 1.09:1, -5.33% From Current Price Level – 50 Day Moving Average*

$220 – Buyers – 1.83:1, -7.02% From Current Price Level

$216 – Even – 1:1, -8.71% From Current Price Level

$212 – Sellers – 1.24:1, -10.4% From Current Price Level – 200 Day Moving Average*

$208 – Buyers – 1.55:1, -12.09% From Current Price Level

$204 – Buyers – 1.12:1, -13.78% From Current Price Level

$200 – Buyers – 1.44:1, -15.47% From Current Price Level

$198 – Sellers – 1.35:1, -16.32% From Current Price Level

$196 – Buyers – 1.33:1, -17.16% From Current Price Level

$194 – Buyers – 1.36:1, -18.01% From Current Price Level

$192 – Buyers – 1.24:1, -18.85% From Current Price Level

$190 – Sellers – 2.7:1, -19.7% From Current Price Level

$188 – Buyers – 1.19:1, -20.54% From Current Price Level

$186 – Buyers – 1.42:1, -21.39% From Current Price Level

$184 – Buyers – 1.83:1, -22.23% From Current Price Level

$182 – Buyers – 3.38:1, -23.08% From Current Price Level

$180 – Sellers – 1.8:1, -23.93% From Current Price Level

$178 – Sellers – 2.2:1, -24.77% From Current Price Level

$176 – Buyers – 1.27:1, -25.62% From Current Price Level

$174 – Buyers – 1.68:1, -26.46% From Current Price Level

$172 – Buyers – 1.18:1, -27.31% From Current Price Level

$170 – Buyers – 1.24:1, -28.15% From Current Price Level

$168 – Sellers – 1.39:1, -29% From Current Price Level

$166 – Sellers – 1.27:1, -29.84% From Current Price Level

$164 – Sellers – 1.78:1, -30.69% From Current Price Level

$162 – Even – 1:1, -31.53% From Current Price Level

$160 – Sellers – 1.07:1, -32.38% From Current Price Level

$158 – NULL – 0:0*, -33.22% From Current Price Level

Price Level:Volume Sentiment Analysis For DIA, The SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF

DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF has shown that investors have been shuffling money & taking profits, but “Buy & Hold” isn’t done yet for most.

When DIA begins to correct it may be felt harder than other indexes as it is a mainly buy & hold index, making the data below worth looking into as an added tool in your assessment of both the ETF & individual names within the index.

$460 – NULL – 0:0*, +0.4% From Current Price Level

$456 – NULL – 0:0*, -0.83% From Current Price Level – Current Price Level & 10 Day Moving Average**

$452 – NULL – 0:0*, -1.7% From Current Price Level

$448 – Buyers – 2.09:1, -2.57% From Current Price Level

$444 – Buyers – 2.24:1, -3.44% From Current Price Level – 50 Day Moving Average*

$440 – Sellers – 1.07:1, -4.31% From Current Price Level

$436 – Sellers – 1.28:1, -5.18% From Current Price Level

$432 – Buyers – 1.53:1, -6.05% From Current Price Level

$428 – Buyers – 1.25:1, -6.92% From Current Price Level – 200 Day Moving Average*

$424 – Buyers – 2.21:1, -7.79% From Current Price Level

$420 – Sellers – 1.11:1, -8.66% From Current Price Level

$416 – Buyers – 1.12:1, -9.53% From Current Price Level

$412 – Sellers – 1.41:1, -10.4% From Current Price Level

$408 – Buyers – 1.06:1, -11.27% From Current Price Level

$404 – Buyers – 7:1, -12.14% From Current Price Level

$400 – Buyers – 1.5:1, -13.01% From Current Price Level

$396 – Sellers – 1.06:1, -13.88% From Current Price Level

$392 – Buyers – 1.92:1, -14.75% From Current Price Level

$388 – Buyers – 2.4:1, -15.62% From Current Price Level

$384 – Sellers – 1.03:1, -16.49% From Current Price Level

$380 – Sellers – 1.02:1, -17.36% From Current Price Level

$376 – Sellers – 1.58:1, -18.23% From Current Price Level

$372 – Buyers – 1.38:1, -19.1% From Current Price Level

$368 – Buyers – 1.07:1, -19.97% From Current Price Level

$364 – Buyers – 1.87:1, -20.84% From Current Price Level

$360 – Buyers – 2.86:1, -21.71% From Current Price Level

$356 – Buyers – 0.3:0*, -22.58% From Current Price Level

$352 – Buyers – 3:1, -23.45% From Current Price Level

$348 – Sellers – 1.25:1, -24.32% From Current Price Level

$344 – Buyers – 1:0*, -25.19% From Current Price Level

$340 – Buyers – 1.63:1, -26.06% From Current Price Level

$336 – Buyers – 1.9:1, -26.93% From Current Price Level

$332 – Buyers – 1.25:1, -27.8% From Current Price Level

$328 – Buyers – 1.54:1, -28.67% From Current Price Level

$324 – Buyers – 1.2:1, -29.54% From Current Price Level

$320 – Buyers – 1.31:1, -30.41% From Current Price Level

$316 – Sellers – 1.09:1, -31.28% From Current Price Level

$312 – Sellers – 1.04:1, -32.15% From Current Price Level

$308 – Buyers – 1.13:1, -33.02% From Current Price Level

$304 – Sellers – 3.6:1, -33.89% From Current Price Level

$300 – Buyers – 1.77:1, -34.76% From Current Price Level

$296 – Sellers – 1.68:1, -35.63% From Current Price Level

$292 – Sellers – 1.57:1, -36.5% From Current Price Level

$288 – Sellers – 1.41:1, -37.37% From Current Price Level

$284 – Sellers – 1.55:1, -38.24% From Current Price Level

$280 – Sellers – 2.25:1, -39.11% From Current Price Level

$276 – Sellers – 8.33:1, 39.98% From Current Price Level

$272 – NULL – 0:0*, 40.85% From Current Price Level

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM OR DIA AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE***

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF gained +0.56% last week, while the VIX closed the week at 15.18, indicating a range of one day implied movement of +/- 0.96% & an implied one month range of movement of +/-4.39%.

Their RSI is trending back down towards the neutral 50 level, sitting currently at 58.95, while their MACD is still bearish, but could dolphin up above the signal line briefly this week.

Volumes were -13.63% lower than the prior year’s average (53,177,500 vs. 61,569,641), with both of the highest sessions of the week being declining volume, which paints a rather grim picture for the near-term.

Tuesday opened the week up on a gap down that tested lower, but was able to power higher & close above its open, but still for an intraday loss of -0.74%

Wednesday opened on a gap up to be in-line with the 1 day moving average, indicating that the short-term trendline was where market participants valued SPY, but tested lower & closed as a small bodied spinning top, indicating that there was confusion among market participants, particularly given that the day closed lower than it opened.

The low volume, but larger lower shadow than upper shadow also signal that there was a little bit of profit taking given the small size of the candle’s real body.

Thursday opened in-line with the 10 day moving average, but was able to advance; however it was on the weaknest volume for the week, which is not a sign of strength behind the move.

Friday opened on a gap higher temporarilyget a new all-time high, before tumbling down through the 10 DMA’s support while investors took profits, and it closed for a day-over-day loss of -0.29%.

Looking into the new week the upside case is the same as it has been for months now, in order to continue paving the road for higher all-time highs that have consistency and staying power we need a to form a base that is anchored by stronger advancing volume.

The consolidation case involved oscillations around the 10 day moving average & between the 10 & 50 DMAs once the 50 DMA draws nearer.

The downside case get’s interesting near the 50 day moving average, as it resides in a historic Sellers zone, and will be retested after some windows are closed from previous gaps, which will provide momentum behind the move.

Should the 50 DMA break down the next support levels is $619.29/share, which is the gatekeeper to the late 2024 to early 2025 consolidation zone.

SPY has support at the $645.39 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $639.85 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.5:1), $633.14 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.33:1) & $619.29/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.8:1) price levels, with resistance at the $562.21/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF advanced +0.89% on the shortened holiday week, as the tech-heavy index was the top performer of the four majors.

Their RSI has flattened at the 57.2 mark, while their MACD is bearish & approaching the signal line & may briefly dolphin above it in the coming week.

Volumes were -4.92% lower than the prior year’s average (37,965,000 vs. 39,931,115), which is not a particularly strong sign given 3/4 of the sessions last week were on advancing volume.

Tuesday the week kicked off on a note of weakness, with QQQ opening on a gap down in-line with the 50 day moving average, temporarily breaking below it, but rallying to close higher than it opened, but still down -0.84% on the day.

Wednesday opened on a gap higher in-line with the 10 day moving average, tested both above it & below it, but closed as a doji in-line with the open & 10 DMA, indicating that there was fair valuto for QQQ names seen in line with the short-term trendline.

Thursday opened in a similar spot, tested below the 10 DMA temporarily, but recovered to rally higher for a gain of +0.91% on the day.

Friday was the week’s highest volume session & warning lights were flashing, as a gap up open at $580.49 tested slightly higher, before crumbling down to the 10 DMA’s support as profits were taken off the board & closed higher than Thursday’s session, but below it’s opening price.

The session’s high volumes can be attributed to profit taking throughout the day, as indicated by the gap up falling apart.

Moving into a new week, ORCL earnings & CPI/PPI data willl be the primary catalysts up or dows for QQQ.

Again, there will need to be sustainable, higher levels of advancing volume for any moves higher beyond their current all-time high that have staying power.

The consolidation case currently looks like QQQ oscillated between the 10 & 50 DMAs while playing wait & see with the data points listed above.

To the downside all eyes should focus on the 10 DMA & awaiting its breakdown, as once thatoccurred it’s -1.34% until price tests the 50 DMA’s support.

In the event of that breakdown, the $558.84/share level becomes important, as it’s the gatekeeper to the $550-554.99/share level which is historically dominated by Sellers (1.28:1) & has no support levels beneath it for ~2%+, which creates a different landscape for QQQ’s fourth quarter.

QQQ has support at the $574.63 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $572.29 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $564.62 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.74:1) & $558.84/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 6.25:1) price levels, with resistance at the $583.32/share (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF added +0.59% for the week, the second strongest showing among the four major index ETFs.

Their RSI is trending towards the overbought 70 level & currently sits at 66.65, while their MACD is bullish still, but its histogram is beginning to signal weakness on the horizon.

Volumes were -15.13% lower than the prior year’s average (25,995,000 vs. 30,628,645), which does not paint a rosy picture given that the week’s highest volume was one of the two advancing sessions; sentiment seems to be wavering.

Tuesday the week kicked off with a low volume session that opened on a gap lower, temporarily broke down the support of the 10 day moving average, before advancing to close higher than it opened, but down -0.54% on the day.

Wednesday opened lower, again tested the 10 DMA’s support, and again passed the test.

However, the size of the upper shadow show that the bulls were not in control, and that short term profit taking was occurring.

Thursday opened higher, in-line with he 10 day moving average, gained +1.25% on the day, but the story behind the move was weak, given that it occurred on the lowest volume session of an already low volume week.

Frdiday confirmed this, as the week’s highest volume session opened on a gap up, tested as high as $239.68 & as low as the 10 DMA, but support held up & the session closed as a doji.

The volumes account for a lot of profit taking in the near-term, and while the 10 DMA held up, market participants should view this as uneasiness moving into a new week.

The upside case for IWM remains the same as the weeks prior, with the other major indexes of large cap stocks so close to all-time highs, without the others moving on to new all-time highs, expect IWM to oscillate higher at the more steady pace than the others.

The consolidation case sees IWM oscillating around the 10 day moving average, as it awaits an upside or downside catalyst.

The 50 DMA is ~4% away, so that likely will not come into play this week, but perhaps next.

The downside here focuses on the 10 DMA’s support breaking down, which has remained resilient since mid-August.

Once thatbreaks down, the $229.55 & $226.04-226.71/share zone become the gatekeepers to the 50 day moving average retest & will be key areas to watch in the coming week.

It is also worth noting that the closer we get to the 50 DMA, the weaker Buyer sentiment has been historically, as shown in the table below.

IWM has support at the $235.07 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.18:1), $229.55 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.56:1), $226.71 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.06:1) & $226.04/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.06:1) price levels, with resistance at the $240.47 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.4:0*) & $243.04/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.4:0*) price levels.

DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF inched forward +0.03% for the week, as the blue chip index was the least favored among market participants.

Their RSI is currently trending down towards the neutral 50 level & sits at 58.88, while their MACD is flat & likely to cross bearishly in the coming week.

Volumes were +3.11% higher than the prior year’s average (3,402,500 vs. 3,299,880), which shows that there was complacency in the market, especially given that the week was only four sessions.

Tuesday DIA opened on a gap down to below the 10 day moving average, tested lower & was able to recover to close just below the 10 DMA’s resistance on the week’s highest volume, indicating that the market valued DIA lower, but some optimists remained.

Wednesday this trend continued, as DIA again opened lower, tested almost as low as Tuesday, before closing -0.08% on the day on the lowest volume of the week.

Thursday opened higher & managed to break above the 10 DMA’s resistance intraday & close above it, but the volume paled in comparison to the three sessions of declining volume that made up the rest of the week.

Friday the week wound down on a session that opened slightly higher, tested up to the new all-time high, before collapsing down to $$452.98/share level & settling just below the 10 day moving average.

The volume story here shows that there was still significant hesitency & downside appetite, particularly when you look at the declining volume vs. advancing volume of the week & profits were certainly being taken after a stronger August than anticipated.

Moving into a new week, the upside case for DIA remains the same as it has been for months now, new all-time highs will only continue in a choppy manner like last week, and or with continued higher levels of advancing volume in order to prove sustainable.

The 10 day moving average will also need to show considerable strength compared to that of last week in order to support any upside moves.

The consolidation case remains similar, expect to see DIA oscillate around the 10 DMA & between it and the 50 DMA as it draws nearer & we await an upside or downside catalyst.

To the downside things have changed a bit, with the 50 day moving average drawing nearer to price by the day, a gap down of <2% suddenly has that support levels being tested, which hasn’t happened since early August.

The $450.29/share level is also going to be of interest, as if it gives out DIA will begin to close windows from August that are still open, which leads to said 50 DMA test & will have some level of steam built up behind it, particularly after the declining volume of the past week.

DIA has support at the $449.98 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 9:1), $446.55 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.73:1), $446.27 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.73:1) & $446.27/share (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.73:1) price levels, with resistance at the $455.20 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $458.67/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment:NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

The Week Ahead

Monday brings us Consumer Credit data at 3pm.

Planet Labs reports earnings before Monday’s closing bell, before Casey’s General & Mission Produce report after the session’s close.

NFIB Optimism Index data comes out Tuesday at 6 am.

Tuesday morning kicks off with earnings from Core & Main, Hello Group, Korn/Ferry & Sail point, before AeroVironment, Calavo Growers, GameStop, Oracle, Rubrik & Synopsys report following the closing bell.

Wednesday morning features Producer Price Index, Core PPI, PPI Year-over-Year & Core PPI Year-over-Year at 8:30 am & Wholesale Inventories data at 10 am.

Chewy reports before Wednesday’s open, before Oxford Industries reports earnings after the day’s close.

Consumer Price Index, CPI Year-over-Year, Core CPI, Core CPI Year-over-Year & Initial Jobless Claims data all comes out Thursday at 8:30 am, followed by Monthly U.S. Budget data at 2pm.

Thursday morning brings earnings from Kroger & Lovesac, before Adobe reports after the closing bell.

Friday morning features Consumer Sentiment (prelim) data at 10 am & there are no noteworthy earnings scheduled for release.

See you back here next week!

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM OR DIA AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF dipped -0.04% last week, while the VIX closed at 15.36, indicating an implied one day range of movement of +/-0.97% & an implied one month range of movement of +/-4.44%.

Their RSI is trending down towards the neutral 50 level & sits at 59.22, while their MACD is bearish, but flat in the wake of Friday’s declines.

Volumes were -6.78% lower than the prior year’s average (57,446,000 vs. 61,621,031.8), which raises eyebrows given that more advancing sessions occurred last week than declines & Friday’s declining session had the highest volume.

Monday set the tone for calling into question the strength of SPY’s short-term trendline, as the session formed a bearish harami pattern with the prior Friday’s candle & closed right atop the 10 day moving average’s support.

Tuesday opened just lower than Monday’s close, but formed a bullish engulfing pattern with Monday’s candle, with neither session having particularly strong volume, indicating that there was certainly a pause on the horizon.

Wednesday opened slightly lower, but was able to advance +0.23% on even lower volume, indicating that there was more waning confidence among market participants.

Thursday opened on a gap higher, retraced into Wednesday’s range before charging higher, but left mixed signals.

Thursday’s session had the second highest volume of the week, which would normally be viewed as a sign of emerging confidence after the previous three days, but the candle resulted in a spinning top, indicating indecision.

Friday is when the fear broke out, with SPY opening lower than Thursday & testing down to near the 10 day moving average’s support, and closing for a -0.6% decline on the day.

Friday featured the highest volume of the week, indicating that there was limited appetite for risk heading into the weekend & that profits were being taken & that folks were preparing to hop out of the pool.

Moving into the new, short holiday week the upside case remains the same as in the notes of prior couple of months; without an increase in advancing volume that remains consistent then any new all-time highs are at risk to fall apart.

The consolidation case also remains the same, as SPY would just oscillate around the 10 day moving average awaiting for an upside or downside catalyst to push it in a direction.

In the event of a downside catalyst/move, we’ll see the 10 DMA break down first, which then directs attention to the 50 day moving average given that the next support level is in a Seller zone historically & is <1% lower.

Should the 50 DMA’s support hold up there could be a brief consolidation featuring oscillations between the 10 & 50 day moving averages, which would be the best case scenario.

In the event of further declines the $619.48/share is the last line of defense before the support of a consolidation zone with touchpoints at $609.59 & $607.15.

SPY has support at the $643.03 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $639.85 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.5:1), $629.70 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: BUyers, 5.4:1) & $619.29/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.8:1) price levels, with resistance at the $649.48/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF declined -0.27% last week, faring the worst of the major four index ETFs.

Their RSI is trending down towards the neutral 50 mark & is currently at 52.22, while their MACD is bearish & looks set to diverge further bearish from the signal line in the coming week.

Volumes were +3.96% higher than the prior year’s average levels (41,578,000 vs. 39,995,000), mostly due to Thursday & Friday’s price action, which isn’t particularly telling about QQQ’s sentiment.

Monday the week began similarly to SPY’s, as a low volume session resulted in a bearish harami cross, that notably was unable to break above the 10 day moving average.

The gravestone doji also was a harbinger of near-term pain, as market participants decided that the fair valuation of QQQ was in the $570.32-.40 range based on the day’s open & close.

Tuesday opened lower, but was able to rally higher to close just below the resistance of the 10 day moving average, again on low volume.

Wednesday signaled that there was a bit more further confusion in the market, as QQQ opened just below Tuesday’s close, but was able to eventually break out above the resistance of the 10 DMA, but again, volumes were unimpressive.

Thursday opened on a gap higher, retraced down to the support of the 10 DMA, but eventually pushed higher to close +0.63% higher day-over-day on slightly higher volume.

The gap was short lived however, as it was filled immediately on Friday’s -1.16% declining session that featured the highest volume of the week, as like SPY, QQQ was showing cracks.

The week ahead’s landscape looks much like SPY’s & sounds exactly the same as the past couple of months’s message: the move higher needs sustainable advancing volume to accompany these new all-time highs.

It’s also worth noting the emerging bearish head & shoulders pattern, where Thursday’s session is the right shoulder.

Should this be true, then there are possibilities, the first being that we see a consoldation range emerge between & tightly around the 10 & 50 day moving averages, which are also getting quite close to one another & look to have a bearish crossover in the coming days.

In the event that there is a downside catalyst the $551.68/share level is important, as it is in a Seller dominated price zone, and is the gate keeper to the mid-June unfilled window.

In the event that QQQ attempts to fill that window & succeeds there are pockets of support along the way, but the 200 day moving average will be something to begin looking at & assessing the strength of in terms of a support level.

QQQ has support at the $561.65 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.74:1), $558.84 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 6.25:1), $551.68 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.28:1) & $539.40/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 5.5:1) price levels, with resistance at the $571.14 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $574.63 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $583.32/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF advanced +0.14%, as the small cap index was the favorite among investors.

Their RSI is just below the overbought 70 Mark & sits at 64.4 currently, while their MACD is bullish, but appears to be bearishly curling over towards the signal line & is possibly at its local apex.

Volumes were -12.99% lower than the prior year’s average (26,646,000 vs. 30,623,175), which signals uncertain to complacent attitudes among market participants, as the highest volume sessions on the week were both declines.

Monday began the same as SPY & QQQ, as a bearish harami pattern emerged on a declining session that had the second highest volume of the week.

Tuesday opened higher & managed to continue higher on weak volume, leading to Wednesday’s lower open but rally to break out above the $235/share level.

Thursday is where things began to unwind, despite a gap up open as IWM began to decline, briefly dipping below the $235/share level but settling +0.12% day-over-day, while below the day’s open.

Friday the wheels officially came off & the highest volume session of the week resulted in a decline of -0.44% & set the stage for a difficult week ahead.

While IWM is not as close to its all-time highs as SPY & QQQ, it will move higher in tandem with these & DIA, so there will need to be in influx in advancing volume for the small cap index to continue higher.

The consolidation case at the moment features IWM oscillating around its 10 day moving average as we await a catalyst to the upside ro downside, which would also mean that the 10 & 50 DMAs would begin nearing each other (oscillations may begin to flutter between each as well).

The downside case for IWM is tricky, as it tends to oscillate around more than just outright climb higher like SPY & QQQ, so it has more frequent local support levels.

However, given that if faith in the larger cap names waivers that lack of optimism can easily spread over into the small cap index as well, which could prove problematic for IWM.

While Buyers have been resilient at most price levels below IWM’s Friday closing price historically, the $225/share level is the first place to be watching in terms of downside activity.

The $225.97-226.32/share level is the bottom of the window created in mid-August that remains unfilled.

In the event that we see that take place, eyes should begin focusing on the 200 day moving average, as the long-term trend will come into play, which makes for an interest set up as it resides in a Seller dominated zone, which also includes the two touchpoint $212.90 support levels.

IWM has support at the $231.43 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.56:1), $229.55 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.56:1), $226.71 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.06:1) & $226.04/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.06:1) price levels, with resistance at the $240.47 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.4:0*) & $243.04/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.4:0*) price levels.

DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF fell -0.12% for the week, as even the blue chip names were not invincible.

Their RSI is trending downwards at 63.8, while their MACD is still bullish, but their histogram is beginning to show signs of weakening & will be something to keep an eye on in the coming week.

Volumes were +4.33% higher than the prior year’s average (3,444,000 vs. 3,301,111.11), which is unnotable, particularly given that they remained in a consolidation range.

Monday DIA kicked off the week with a bearish harami pattern forming during the week’s strongest volume session, followed by Tuesday opening on a gap lower but managing to recover & advance.

Wednesday opened higher & was able to climb higher, before Thursday gapped up on the open, but declined throughout the session & closed lower than it opened, for a gain of +0.17% on the day.

Friday opened on a gap down, saw buying & selling pressure, but ultimately closed -0.15% on the day as a doji candle, indicating that there was complacency & uncertainty abound.

Heading into the new week, the story remains the same for DIA to the upside, without sustained, elevated advancing volume there is going to be limited further upside.

Oscillations around the 10 day moving average mark the consolidation case.

The downside casefor DIA becomes tricky & depends greatly on the catalyst given the Buy & Hold nature of many of its components.

In the event of some major catastrophy there would likely be a significant flight to safety that impacts the structure of DIA in a major manner.

In the event of a regular pullback though, $446.27-446.55 will be an area to watch, as should they break down then the 50 day movingaverage is likely to fall, which leads to the 200 day moving average becoming the next area of interest, as it resides two support levels lower.

DIA has support at the $452.88 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $449.98 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 9:1), $446.55 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.73:1) & $446.27/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.73:1) price levels, with resistance at the $457.87/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

The Week Ahead

Monday the market is closed for the Labor Day holiday in the US., so there will be no economic data or earnings reports.

S&P Final U.S. Manufacturing PMI data comes out Tuesday at 9:45 am, followed by ISM Manufacturing & Construction Spending data at 10 am.

Tuesday morning’s earnings calls include Academy Sports + Outdoors, NIO & Signet Jewlers, with Zscaler reporting after the closing bell.

Wednesday begins with Fed President Musalem speaking at 9 am, Job Openings & Factory Orders data at 10 am, Fed President Kashkari speaking at 1:30 pm & the Fed Beige Book at 2pm.

Dollar Tree, Campbell Soup, Macy’s, REV Group & Sprinklr report earnings before Wednesday’s opening bell, before Salesforce, American Eagle, Asana, C3.ai, Credo Technology Group, Descartes, GitLab, Hewlett Packard Enterprise & Pager Duty report after the session’s close.

ADP Employment, Initial Jobless Claims, U.S. Productivity (revision) & U.S. Trade Deficit data come out Thursday at 8:30 am, followed by S&P Final U.S. Services PMI data at 9:45 am, ISM Services Data at 10 am, Fed President Williams speaking at 12:05 pm & Fed President Goolsbee speaking at 7pm.

Thursday morning begins with 1-800-FLOWERS, Brady, Caleres, Ciena, Endava, G-III Apparenl, Science Applications, Shoe Carnival & Toro before the session opens, with Broadcom, Argan, Braze, Copart, DocuSign, Guidewire Software, Lululemon Athletica, Phreesia, Samsara, ServiceTitan, Smith & Wesson Brands, UiPath & Zumiez reporting after the closing bell.

Friday the week winds down with U.S. Employment Report, U.S. Unemployment Rate, U.S. Hourly Wages & Hourly Wages Year-over-Year data at 8:30 am.

ABM Industries reports earnings before Friday’s session’s opening bell.

See you back here next week!

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM OR DIA AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF gained +0.98% this past week, while the VIX closed at 15.09, indicting an implied one day move of +/-0.95% & an implied one month move of +/-4.36%.

Their RSI is trending downward & currently sits at 65.66, while their MACD is bullish following Wednesday’s gap up session, but it should be noted that it is very muted per its histogram.

Volumes were -0.14% below the prior year’s average (60,744,000 vs. 60,831,032), which calls into question the strength of the move higher on the week, given that Wednesday’s gap up led to an immediate consolidation period.

Monday the week kicked off with a hint of uncertainty in the air, as SPY opened slightly lower, was unable to get anything together to move higher & the day resulted in a decline of -0.2% on low volume.

The session also resulted in a spinning top candle, indicating that there was a good deal of uncertainty in the air & that market participants were waiting on an upside/downside catalyst.

Tuesday opened on a gap up, retraced into Monday’s real-body range, but powered higher on the second highest volume of the week to close +1.06% higher on the day.

Wednesday brought more murkiness to SPY’s chart, as a gap up open ultimately resulted in a doji candle, indicating that market participants were slightly uneasy, but the similar opening/closing levels show that Buyers & Sellers were happy to meet at about the same price, signaling temporary equilibrium.

Thursday opened lower, but bulls reluctantly stepped in & pushed SPY +0.0.1% higher on the day, as wait & see became the story.

Friday’s session opened on a gap higher, but profits were taken on the highest volume session of the week for a decline of -0.23% on the day & the cracks began to be exposed.

The upside case for this week & SPY is the same as it has been for weeks-to-months now, as SPY continues to squeak out record highs.

It’s beginning to appear more fragile than its been in the past though, but this isn’t anything that hasn’t been said before & its still managed to push higher, but it bares repeating.

Given the low amount of economic information & earnings reports this week it is most likely that any additional new highs will be a result of gap ups, similar to what we’ve seen so many times now, and still an indicator of uneasiness among market participants.

Also, as mentioned each week, there will need to be stronger advancing volume that is consistent for any further upside movements to remain sustainable.

The consolidation case looks to be a closing of the window that formed on Wednesday’s gap up, while SPY awaits an upside or downside catalyst & oscillates around the 10 day moving average.

Assuming the 10 DMA can catch up to price, this is likely to occur this week while we await Friday’s Fed Chair Powell Jackson Hole remarks, but there are a number of other Fed speakers this week as well.

The downside case occurs when the 10 DMA’s support breaks down, which conveniently is possible given that historically over the past ~3 years, the price zone that SPY’s 10 day moving average is in has been Seller dominated at a rate of 1.5 Sellers : 1 Buyer.

In this case, the 50 DMA’s support will also be challenged, and it too lies in the same $620-624.99/share price zone that has been marked by bearish Seller oriented behavior.

Should this occur, the $619.29/share level is the last hope before all eyes should look to the$609.59/share support level.

Should it escalate to that point, the window from late June 2025’s gap up comes into view & may be closed shortly after, but that’s not an area of focus just yet.

SPY has support at the $639.85 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.5:1), $637.32 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.5:1), $620.64 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.5:1) & $619.29/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.8:1) price levels, with resistance at the $646.19/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF added +0.49% last week, as market participants were not overly eager to jump into the tech-heavy index.

Their RSI is also retreating back towards the neutral 50-mark & is currently at 64.24, while their MACD is narrowly bullish & looking primed to cross the signal line bearishly by mid-week.

Volumes were +6.59% above the prior year’s average (42,000,000 vs. 39,404,008), which should be paid attention to given that the two highest volume sessions of the week were Thursday & Friday’s declines.

Monday opened the week up on a sour note for QQQ, but the day’s upper shadow indicated that there was some untapped upside sentiment still among market participants.

Tuesday this became clear when a gap up open retraced into Monday’s real body range, but bulls came out & were able to force QQQ’s price higher & the session closed near the day’s high, gaining +1.26% on the day.

Wednesday is where things began to unwind though & uneasiness crept into the market.

The session opened on a gap up, but faults emerged & the day closed lower than it opened, despite gaining +0.05% day-over-day.

Thursday opened on a gap down, and the second highest volume session of the week was a mix of profit taking & speculation, as QQQ was able to march higher than it opened & briefly cross back above the $580/share level, before closing down -0.08%.

Friday the profit takers re-emerged, as the session resulted in a -0.44% decline & the candle’s lower shadow indicates that there was still some negative sentiment in the air & that QQQ is beginning to look more appealing at a lower price.

Similar to SPY, QQQ’s upside case involves a new all-time high & will require an influx of advancing volume that is consistent in order to remain sustainable.

The consolidation case focuses on oscillating around the 10 day moving average while awaiting an upside or downside catalyst, which seems likely to be how we spend much of this week based on the earnings reports & economic data that is scheduled for release.

The downside case emerges with the breakdown of the 10 day moving average’s support.

In the event that the 10 DMA’s support level breaks down things get a bit more interesting for QQQ on the downside, as their next two support levels (one being the 50 day moving average) live in the $550-554.99/share price zone, which is Seller dominated at a rate of 1.28:1 over the past year.

The next support level should that break down is the $539.40, which is ~-6.6% below Friday’s closing price.

This becomes more interesting because it then opens QQQ up to refill the window created by the gap of late June 2025.

QQQ has support at the $574.63 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $572.60 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $553.41 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.28:1) & $551.68/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.28:1) price levels, with resistance at the $583.32/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

IWM the iShares Russell 2000 ETF advanced +3.09% last week, as the small cap index was the favorite of the four majors.

Their RSI is trending back down towards the neutral 50-mark, while their MACD is bullish, but beginning to curl over towards the signal line in the wake of Friday’s declines following Thursday’s gap up.

Volumes were +30.13% higher than the prior year’s average (39,680,000 vs. 30,492,460), which will prove to be something to watch given that the highest volume session of the week by a long-shot was a declining session.

Monday opened up on uneasiness, but there was a glimmer of optimism with the upper shadow on the day’s candle, which led to the advance of Tuesday & Wednesday.

Tuesday opened on a gap higher, tested lower, before rallying to close out the day +2.97% higher day-over-day on the week’s second highest volume; folks were hopping back into the pool.

It should be noted that this took IWM’s price higher away from the nearby support of the 10 day moving average, which will be important to recall shortly.

Wednesday also featured another gap up open & IWM closed +1.94% higher on the day, but as you can see, volume wanted day-over-day, indicating that there was limited gas in the tank.

Thursday profits began being taken from the table & in high demand, as the weel’s highest volume session began the unraveling of a strong week for IWM.

While the day resulted in a dragonfly doji which can hint at upside sentiment still being in tact, Friday’s session resulted in a bearish engulfing candle to conclude the week, as risk-off into the weekend was a major theme for small caps after a robust week.

It should also be noted that while Friday’s session was not stronger volume wise than Thursday’s, the day’s low was lower, indicating that there was more bearish appetite in the market.

IWM’s upside case differs from SPY & QQQ’s, as they are further removed from their all-time high, but their performance will help/hurt IWM’s upside case as they’ll be taken as a symbol of overall market confidence, which will boost/drop the small cap index.

The consolidation case gets a little fuzzy, as the window from Wednesday’s gap up will likely house it’s outter limits while the 10 day moving average plays catch up.

The downside case for IWM has a few major parts, first being that the short & medium term trand lines are providing support for IWM, but will be moving with it in the declining case.

In the event of a breakdown of these two levels, something a bit more sinister emerges, the $212-215.99/share price zone.

The issue with this zone is two-fold; one being that it is historically a Seller dominated zone at a rate of 1.24:1 Sellers:Buyers, and two that it houses both the long-term trend line (200 day moving average) & the $212.90/share support levels, which there are two touch-points for.

If Sellers emerge in droves & break down the 200 day moving average’s support, that $212.90/share level becomes the new downside gatekeeper, with a support touch-point at $212.34 before attention should be turned to the $209.55/share level.

IWM has support at the $226.71 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.06:1), $226.04 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.06:1), $225.37 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.06:1) & $224.60/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.06:1) price levels, with resistance at the $229.55 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.56:1), $231.46 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.56:1), $240.47 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.4:0*) & $243.05/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.4:0*) price levels.

DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF climbed +1.72% last week, as the blue chip index reached another all-time high on Friday, despite closing lower than it opened for the day.

Their RSI isrelatively flat at the 60.73 mark, while their MACD is currently bullish after Friday’s crossover, but may well porpoise as the week goes on.

Volumes were +52.78% above the prior year’s average (4,948,000 vs. 3,238,571), which will be something worth watching heading into the new week as the top three highest volume sessions all came on advancing days & it will be interesting to see how much of that money is true “buy & hold” & how much will see profits taken.

Monday DIA began the week opening higher, but being unable to be supported by the 10 day moving average & ultimately crashed through it & closed below it, with the day’s lower shadow signaling that there was appetite for DIA to be below $440/share before bulls stepped in.

It should be noted that Monday’s candle also formed a bearish engulfing pattern with Friday’s, which signals that all is not well under the hood for even the blue chip index.

Tuesday opened higher & in-line with the 10 day moving average, and took off to the races higher gaining +1.06% on the day, leading into Wednesday’s gap up open that advanced day-over-day +1.07%.

Wednesday’s session also produced the week’s highest volume, which will be interesting to see how long that money actually stays in the blue chip index.

Thursday opened midway between Wednesday’s range, tested lower before testing & failing to break higher than Wednesday’s close & settling down to close higher than it opened, but forming a bearish harami pattern & signaling that there is weakness in the air.

Friday also added some complexity to DIA’s situation, as a gap up open quickly fell apart & the day closed lower than it opened for an advance of only +0.14% on the week’s second highest volume.

These elevated advancing volume levels could form the base for running higher if DIA can continue them in the coming weeks, which will be needed to continue setting new all-time highs.

The consolidation case at these levels focuses on the window created on Wednesday & the 10 day moving average, with oscillations around the two taking place in anticipation of an upside or downside catalyst.

The declining case here is tricky, as the 10 DMA is in a Seller oriented price zone ($440-443.99; 1.24:1), meaning that the consolidation case could quite possibly lead to the decline case, which would likely be the result of the profit taking from last week mentioned above.

Should this take place, the 50 day moving average becomes the focal point, and in the event of a breakdown there the $433.14/share becomes the gatekeeper, as if $431.99/share is reached then DIA re-enters another Seller zone & suddenly the 200 day moving average is within close proximity.

At that stage the strength of the long-term trend becomes a key point of interest.

DIA has support at the $446.55 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.73:1), $446.27 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.73:1), $443.70 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.24:1) & $439.40/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.6:1) price levels, with resistance at the $449.98 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 9:1) & $452.05/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

The Week Ahead

Monday the week begins with Home Builder Confidence Index data at 10 am.

Riskified reports earnings before Monday’s opening bell, before Fabrinet & Palo Alto Networks after the session’s close.

Housing Starts & Building permits data comes out Tuesday morning at 8:30 am.

Tuesday morning kicks off with earnings from Home Depot, Cardinal Health, Circle Internet Group, eToro Group, HUYA, MSG Sports, On Holding, Paysafe, Sea Ltd., Smithfield Foods, Tech target & Tencent Music, before Jack Henry, James Hardie, Keysight, La-Z-Boy, Sociedad Quimica y Minera, Toll Brothers & ZTO Express report after the closing bell.

Wednesday brings us the Minutes of the May FOMC Meeting at 2pm.

Alcom, Analog Devices, Baidu, Dycom, Estee Lauder, GDS Holdings, Kingsoft Cloud, Lowe’s, Target & TJX all report earnings before Wednesday’s session’s open, with Coty & Nordson reporting after the close.

Initial Jobless Claims & Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey data are released Thursday at 8:30 am, before S&P Flash U.S. Services PMI & S&P Flash U.S. Manufacturing PMI data at 9:45 am and Existing Home Sales & U.S. Leading Economic Indicators data at 10 am.

Thursday morning features earnings from Walmart, Bilibili, Canadian Solar, Scan source & The Marzetti Company, followed by Intuit, Ross Stores, Workday & Zoom Communications after the closing bell.

There is no major economic data for release on Friday & BJ’s Wholesale & Buckle report earnings before the session’s opening bell.

See you back here next week!

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM OR DIA AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***

Since our last Volume Sentiment Analysis SPY, QQQ & DIA have marched to new all-time highs, but markets are beginning to look unstable, making it a great time to check in with volume sentiments for the major indexes.

Last night the VIX closed at 17.85, indicating an implied one day move of +/-1.12% & an implied one month move of +/-5.16%, which adds to the importance of knowing our bearings in terms of historic market behavior.

This will also be of heightened importance in the event of a drawdown, as over the past couple of months there has been a lot of gappy behavior, with majors jumping up & continuing to advance, while leaving open windows in their wake.

Volume have remained high (see last week’s market review note), but are signaling that there is a bit more risk-off sentiment in the air & that market participants are less confident than they’ve been in the past.

In the event that we see re-tests of the current one year support or resistance levels, the data below can be used as a barometer to gain insight into how market participants have behaved histrorically.

This can shed light into how they may behave again & can be helpful in crafting a strategy for navigating these interesting conditions.

Each section below contains a view of each index ETF’s chart (for a technical breakdown of each’s chart, see the link above for last week’s note), as well as a list of their current one year support & resistance levels with the volume sentiment noted beneath it on the table.

There is an additional table beneath this table with each price level’s sentiment, as well as a typed text version below that is able to be copied & pasted.

Note that “NULL, 0:0*” values denote areas that each name has traded at but with limited volume data to work with from a comparison standpoint in terms of creating a ratio of buyers:sellers (or vice versa) or is the outlier above the highest/lowest level with price data.

Also, prices that do have a ratio of Buyers:Sellers (Sellers:Buyers) where the denominator is 0 are denoted with an asterisk “*” as well.

In the written lists of the price levels & volume sentiments the price levels that contain support & resistance levels are marked in BOLD.

Recall that at price extremes such as the highs that we have recently hit there will tend to be skewed data due to the small sample size & factor that into how you interpret each price level’s reported sentiment.

This is intended to serve as an additional tool, similar to a barometer to use during your due diligence process & is not meant to replace doing your own research & is not financial advice.

Price Level:Volume Sentiment Analysis For SPY, The SPDR S&P 500 ETF

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF has given up some losses since its last all-time high, but is still hovering around it, up +0.76% so far intraday.

Expect to see it restricted by the 10 day moving average’s resistance in the near-term, but as it approaches other support/resistance levels the data below can serve as a reference.

For a deeper dive into SPY’s technicals, see the link to the market review note above.

$640 – NULL – 0:0*, +1.92% From Current Price Level

$635 – Sellers – 1.5:1, +1.12% From Current Price Level

$630 – Buyers – 1.33:1, +0.32% From Current Price Level – 10 Day Moving Average*

$625 – Buyers – 5.4:1, -0.47% From Current Price Level – Current Price Level*

$620 – Sellers – 1.5:1, -1.27% From Current Price Level

$615 – Buyers – 1.8:1, -2.07% From Current Price Level

$610 – Buyers – 1.5:0*, -2.86% From Current Price Level – 50 Day Moving Average*

$605 – Buyers – 4.8:1, -3.66% From Current Price Level

$600 – Buyers – 12.2:1, -4.45% From Current Price Level

$595 – Sellers – 2.14:1, -5.25% From Current Price Level

$590 – Buyers – 1.3:1,, -6.05% From Current Price Level

$585 – Buyers – 2.63:1, -6.84% From Current Price Level – 200 Day Moving Average*

$580 – Sellers- 2.81:1, -7.64% From Current Price Level

$575 – Buyers – 1.74:1, -8.44% From Current Price Level

$570 – Even – 1:1, -9.23% From Current Price Level

$565 – Buyers – 1.5:1, -10.03% From Current Price Level

$560 – Sellers – 1.07:1, -10.82% From Current Price Level

$555 – Buyers – 3.53:1, -11.62% From Current Price Level

$550 – Buyers – 1.21:1, -12.42% From Current Price Level

$545 – Buyers – 2.24:1, -13.21% From Current Price Level

$540 – Buyers – 1.67:1, -14.01% From Current Price Level

$535 – Sellers – 1.11:1, -14.8% From Current Price Level

$530 – Buyers – 1.67:1, -15.6% From Current Price Level

$525 – Buyers – 1.92:1, -16.4% From Current Price Level

$520 – Buyers – 1.3:1, -17.19% From Current Price Level

$515 – Buyers – 4:1, -17.99% From Current Price Level

$510 – Sellers – 1.41:1, -18.79% From Current Price Level

$505 – Buyers – 1.2:1, -19.58% From Current Price Level

$500 – Sellers – 2.05:1, -20.38% From Current Price Level

$496 – Buyers – 1.21:1, -21.02% From Current Price Level

$492 – Sellers – 7.83:1, -21.65% From Current Price Level

$488 – Buyers – 1.61:1, -22.29% From Current Price Level

$484 – Sellers – 1.2:1, -22.93% From Current Price Level

$480 – Buyers – 1.27:1, -23.56% From Current Price Level

$476 – Buyers – 2.33:1, -24.2% From Current Price Level

$472 – Buyers – 1.91:1, -24.84% From Current Price Level

$468 – NULL – 0:0*, -25.47% From Current Price Level

$464 – Buyers – 1.83:1, -26.11% From Current Price Level

$460 – Sellers – 1.52:1, -26.75% From Current Price Level

$456 – Buyers – 1.13:1, -27.39% From Current Price Level

$452 – Buyers – 0.7:0*, -28.02% From Current Price Level

$448 – Buyers – 2:0*, -29.66% From Current Price Level

$444 – Buyers – 1.31:1, -29.3% From Current Price Level

$440 – BUyers – 2.78:1, -29.93% From Current Price Level

$436 – Buyers – 1.87:1, -30.57% From Current Price Level

$432 – Sellers – 1.56:1, -31.21% From Current Price Level

$428 – Buyers – 1.25:1, -31.84% From Current Price Level

$424 – Buyers – 1.92:1, -32.48% From Current Price Level

$420 – Sellers – 1.66:1, -33.12% From Current Price Level

$416 – Buyers – 1.08:1, -33.75% From Current Price Level

$412 – Buyers – 1.31:1, -34.39% From Current Price Level

$408 – Sellers – 1.63:1, -35.03% From Current Price Level

$404 – Buyers – 1.95:1, -35.67% From Current Price Level

$400 – Buyers – 2.51:1, -36.3% From Current Price Level

$396 – Sellers – 1.8:1, -36.94% From Current Price Level

$392 – Sellers – 2.03:1, -37.58% From Current Price Level

$388 – Buyers – 4.86:1, -38.21% From Current Price Level

$384 – Buyers – 1.67:1, -38.85% From Current Price Level

$380 – Buyers – 1.41:1, -39.49% From Current Price Level

$376 – Sellers – 2.44:1, -40.12% From Current Price Level

$372 – Sellers – 2.12:1, -40.76% From Current Price Level

$368 – Sellers – 2:1, -41.4% From Current Price Level

$364 – Sellers – 1.28:1, -42.04% From Current Price Level

$360 – Buyers – 1.17:1, -42.67% From Current Price Level

$356 – Buyers – 1.43:1, -43.31% From Current Price Level

$352 – Buyers – 1.67:1, -43.95% From Current Price Level

$348 – Sellers – 0.9:0*, -44.58% From Current Price Level

$344 – Sellers – 1.2:0*, -45.22% From Current Price Level

$340 – NULL – 0:0*, -45.86% From Current Price Level

$336 – NULL – 0:0*, -46.49% From Current Price Level

Price Level:Volume Sentiment Analysis For QQQ, The Invesco QQQ Trust ETF

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF is in a similar boat to SPY, hovering near all-time highs, seeing folks retreat from the uptick in declining volume perspective, and oscillating around the 10 day moving average while awaiting an upside or downside catalyst.

The data below can aid in making assessments around the strength/weakness of QQQ’s support/resistance levels.

$575 – NULL – 0:0*, +2.63% From Current Price Level

$570 – NULL – 0:0*, +1.74% From Current Price Level

$565 – Buyers – 1.39:1, +0.84% From Current Price Level

$560 – Buyers – 1.74:1, -0.05% From Current Price Level – Current Price Level*

$555 – Buyers – 6.25:1, -0.94% From Current Price Level

$550 – Sellers – 1.28:1, -1.83% From Current Price Level

$545 – Buyers – 1.92:1, -2.73% From Current Price Level

$540 – Buyers – 1:0*, -3.62% From Current Price Level – 50 Day Moving Average*

$535 – Buyers – 5.5:1, -4.51% From Current Price Level

$530 – Buyers – 3.45:1, -5.4% From Current Price Level

$525 – Buyers – 1.11:1, -6.3% From Current Price Level

$520 – Buyers – 1.84:1, -7.19% From Current Price Level

$515 – Buyers – 1.1:1, -8.08% From Current Price Level

$510 – Sellers – 2.04:1, -8.97% From Current Price Level – 200 Day Moving Average*

$505 – Sellers – 1.42:1, -9.86% From Current Price Level

$500 – Buyers – 2:1, -10.76% From Current Price Level

$496 – Buyers – 1.17:1, -11.47% From Current Price Level

$492 – Buyers – 1.96:1, -12.19% From Current Price Level

$488 – Buyers – 2.59:1, -12.9% From Current Price Level

$484 – Buyers – 1.28:1, -13.61% From Current Price Level

$480 – Buyers – 1.71:1, -14.33% From Current Price Level

$476 – Sellers – 1.04:1, -15.04% From Current Price Level

$472 – Buyers – 2.04:1, -15.75% From Current Price Level

$468 – Sellers – 2.34:1, -16.47% From Current Price Level

$464 – Buyers – 6:1, -17.18% From Current Price Level

$460 – Buyers – 1.95:1, -17.9% From Current Price Level

$456 – Buyers – 1.31:1, -18.61% From Current Price Level

$452 – Buyers – 1.08:1, -19.32% From Current Price Level

$448 – Sellers – 1.11:1, -20.04% From Current Price Level

$444 – Sellers – 3.45:1, -20.75% From Current Price Level

$440 – Buyers – 1.39:1, -21.47% From Current Price Level

$436 – Buyers – 5.63:1, -22.18% From Current Price Level

$432 – Sellers – 7.33:1, -22.89% From Current Price Level

$428 – Buyers – 2:0*, -23.61% From Current Price Level

$424 – Sellers – 1.36:1, -24.32% From Current Price Level

$420 – Sellers – 1.11:1, -25.04% From Current Price Level

$416 – Sellers – 1.3:0*, -25.75% From Current Price Level

$412 – Sellers – 2:1, -26.46% From Current Price Level

$408 – Sellers – 1.9:0*. -27.18% From Current Price Level

$404 – NULL – 0:0*, -27.89% From Current Price Level

Price Level:Volume Sentiment Analysis For IWM, The iShares Russell 2000 ETF

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF has not performed as strongly as SPY or QQQ as investors are skittish around the small cap index at the current moment.

Due to this, there are more support & resistance levels around their current price that may be retested.

The data below displays how market participants have behaved at each price level IWM has traded at over the past ~2 years.

$244 – NULL – 0:0*, +10.48% From Current Price Level

$240 – Buyers – 0.4:0*, +8.67% From Current Price Level

$236 – Buyers – 1.9:1, +6.86% From Current Price Level

$232 – Buyers – 1.18:1, +5.05% From Current Price Level

$228 – Buyers – 1.56:1, +3.24% From Current Price Level

$224 – Buyers – 1.06:1, +1.43% From Current Price Level

$220 – Buyers – 1.87:1, -0.38% From Current Price Level – 10 Day Moving Average & Current Price**

$216 – Buyers – 1.07:1, -2.2% From Current Price Level

$212 – Sellers – 1.24:1, -4.01% From Current Price Level – 50 & 200 Day Moving Averages**

$208 – Buyers – 1.55:1, -5.82% From Current Price Level

$204 – Buyers – 1.12:1, -7.63% From Current Price Level

$200 – Buyers – 1.44:1, -9.44% From Current Price Level

$198 – Sellers – 1.35:1, -10.35% From Current Price Level

$196 – Buyers – 1.33:1, -11.25% From Current Price Level

$194 – Buyers – 1.36:1, -12.13% From Current Price Level

$192 – Buyers – 1.24:1, -13.06% From Current Price Level

$190 – Sellers -2.7:1, -13.97% From Current Price Level

$188 – Buyers – 1.19:1, -14.87% From Current Price Level

$186 – Buyers – 1.42:1, -15.78% From Current Price Level

$184 – Buyers – 1.83:1, -16.69% From Current Price Level

$182 – Buyers – 3.36:1, -17.59% From Current Price Level

$180 – Sellers – 1.8:1, -18.5% From Current Price Level

$178 – Sellers – 2.2:1, -19.4% From Current Price Level

$176 – Buyers – 1.27:1, -20.31% From Current Price Level

$174 – Buyers – 1.68:1, -21.21% From Current Price Level

$172 – Buyers – 1.18:1, -22.12% From Current Price Level

$170 – Buyers – 1.24:1, -23.02% From Current Price Level

$168 – Sellers – 1.39:1, -23.93% From Current Price Level

$166 – Sellers – 1.27:1, -24.84% From Current Price Level

$164 – Sellers – 1.78:1, -25.74% From Current Price Level

$162 – Even – 1:1, -26.65% From Current Price Level

$160 – Sellers – 1.07:1, -27.55% From Current Price Level

$158 – NULL – 0:0*, -28.46% From Current Price Level

Price Level:Volume Sentiment Analysis For DIA, The SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF

DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF is also near its all-time high, giving reason to tread cautiously in the near-term while awaiting it to break out definitively to the upside or downside.

The data below shed insight into how strong their support/resistance levels are when they’re approached & re-tested again.

$452 – NULL – 0:0*, +2.46% From Current Price Level

$448 – Buyers – 9:1, +1.56% From Current Price Level

$444 – Buyers – 2.72:1, +0.65% From Current Price Level

$440 – Sellers – 1.24:1, -0.26% From Current Price Level – 10 Day Moving Average & Current Price**

$436 – Buyers – 1.6:1, -1.17% From Current Price Level

$432 – Buyers – 1.88:1, -2.07% From Current Price Level – 50 Day Moving Average*

$428 – Sellers – 1.22:1, -2.98% From Current Price Level

$424 – Buyers – 3.7:1, -3.89% From Current Price Level – 200 Day Moving Average*

$420 – Seller s- 1.21:1, -4.79% From Current Price Level

$416 – Buyers – 1.24:1, -5.7% From Current Price Level

$412 – Sellers – 1.6:1, -6.61% From Current Price Level

$408 – Buyers – 1.27:1, -7.51% From Current Price Level

$404 – Buyers – 3.44:1, -8.42% From Current Price Level

$400 – Buyers – 1.5:1, -9.33% From Current Price Level

$396 – Even – 1:1, -10.23% From Current Price Level

$392 – Buyers – 2.1:1, -11.14% From Current Price Level

$388 – Buyers – 2.13:1, -12.05% From Current Price Level

$384 – Buyers – 1.07:1, -12.95% From Current Price Level

$380 – Sellers – 1.08:1, -13.86% From Current Price Level

$376 – Sellers – 1.41:1, -14.77% From Current Price Level

$372 – Sellers – 1.07:1, -15.67% From Current Price Level

$368 – Buyers – 1.8:1, -16.58% From Current Price Level

$364 – Buyers – 1.86:1, -17.49% From Current Price Level

$360 – Buyers – 2.57:1, -18.39% From Current Price Level

$356 – Buyers – 0.2:0*, -19.3% From Current Price Level

$352 – Buyers – 2:1, -20.21% From Current Price Level

$348 – Sellers – 2:1, -21.11% From Current Price Level

$344 – Buyers – 0.9:0*, -22.02% From Current Price Level

$340 – Buyers – 1.7:1, -22.93% From Current Price Level

$336 – Buyers – 1.42:1, -23.83% From Current Price Level

$332 – Buyers – 1.71:1, -24.74% From Current Price Level

$328 – Buyers – 1.74:1, -25.65% From Current Price Level

$324 – Buyers – 1.1:1, -26.55% From Current Price Level

$320 – Buyers – 1.22:1, -27.46% From Current Price Level

$316 – Sellers – 1.15:1, -28.37% From Current Price Level

$312 – Buyers – 1.1:1, -29.27% From Current Price Level

$308 – Even – 1:1, -30.18% From Current Price Level

$304 – Sellers – 3.2:1, -31.09% From Current Price Level

$300 – Buyers – 1.25:1, -31.99% From Current Price Level

$296 – Sellers – 1.71:1, -32.9% From Current Price Level

$292 – Sellers – 2.13:1, -33.81% From Current Price Level

$288 – Sellers – 1.45:1, -34.71% From Current Price Level

$284 – Sellers – 1.3:1, -35.62% From Current Price Level

$280 – Sellers – 2.29:1, -36.53% From Current Price Level

$276 – Sellers – 7.33:1, -37.43% From Current Price Level

$272 – NULL – 0:0*, -38.34% From Current Price Level

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM OR DIA AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF fell -2.41% last week, while the VIX closed the week out at 20.38, indicating an implied one day move of +/-1.28% & an implied one month move of +/-5.89%.

Their RSI has just crossed down below the neutral 50 level & sits at 47.89, while their MACD is still bearish, as it was for most of the month of July.

Volumes were +43.87% higher than the prior year’s average (87,878,000 vs. 61,080,680), which should be cause for concern given that the declining volumes increased day-over-day throughout the week.

Monday the week began on a bearish note, as the week’s lowest volume session resulted in a decline & a doji candle, indicating that market participants were on edge, and awaiting more earnings reports, the FOMC rate decision & other economic data before making any sudden movements.

Tuesday the bearishness continued, as SPY opened higher, before declining throughout the session to ultimately form a bearish engulfing pattern on slightly higher volume than Monday’s session.

Wednesday the theme continued, but there was a test of the support of the 10 day moving average, while momentarily broke down before SPY was able to recover to close down -0.13% for the day, resulting in a spinning top candle which signals that there was indecision among market participants.

Following Wednesday’s unchanged FOMC interest rate decision & more earnings coming in Thursday opened on a gap higher, before sliding lower & ultimately taking out the support of the 10 day moving average, closing beneath it & forming a bearish engulfing pattern.

Friday confirmed that the bears had come out to play & that there was no risk appetite heading into the weekend when SPY opened on a gap down & continued lower, with the day’s low briefly dropping to $619.29/share, before closing at $621.72, a day-over-day decline of -1.64%.

Heading into the coming week, there is a new upside case emerging, where the resistance of the 10 day moving average will need to be broken through to see SPY continue higher, where it will test its all-time high set by Thurday’s session’s high.

The consolidation case for the time being involves SPY oscillating back & forth between the 10 & 50 day moving averages awaiting an upside or downside catalyst.

In the event that the support of the 50 day moving average breaks down, things get a bit murkier, leading to the declining case.

In the event that this brings price down to the neighborhood of $603.41 then we will likely see the window created in late June close, which then sets all eyes on the support of the 200 day moving average.

In that set up, the 10 & 50 day moving averages would be bearing down on SPY’s price & they’d be priced in the neighborhood to close the gap that was created in early May 2025 that is still unfilled.

The 200 day moving average is -5.81% below Friday’s closing price, but the $590-599.99/share level has sparse support levels, which may make it easier to be passed through quickly.

The table below lays out SPY’s volume sentiment historically from the past few years & can be referenced in the event of the re-tests mentioned above in order to assess the strength/weakness of support/resistance levels.

SPY has support at the $610.59 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $609.59 (Volume Sneimtent: Buyers, 2.6:1), $607.15 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.6:1) & $603.42/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 7:1) price levels, with resistance at the $632.38 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $639.85/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF dipped -2.21%, as investors in the tech-heavy index were slightly less inclined to sell, but were still clearly on the fence about the near-term.

Their RSI also has just come crashing back to below the neutral 50-mark & sits at 48.34, while their MACD is also still bearish, having spent most of the month of July below the signal line.

Volumes were +28.18% higher than the prior year’s average (50,880,000 vs. 39,692,640), mostly due to the last two sessions of the week, indicating that there is risk-off sentiment in the market for QQQ.

Monday kicked the week off on a similar (but slightly less pessimistic) manner as SPY, as a gap up open resulted in a lower close & a thick doji candle for QQQ.

Tuesday followed suit & on another low volume session a gap up saw a slightly advance, before crumbling lower to form a bearish engulfing candle for the day.

Wednesday opened in Tuesday’s range, testing slightly higher & lower as shown by the upper & lower shadows on the day’s candle, before ultimately closing lower than the open & forming a bearish harami pattern with Tuesday’s candle.

Thursday is where market participants really stepped up, as QQQ opened on a gap up, made a fresh all-time high, before diving lower to form a bearish engulfing candle that closed straddling the 10 day moving average’s support.

Friday saw the tipping point, where QQQ opened on a gap lower & continued lower throughout the day, although they were able to regain some losses before the session’s close based on the lower shadow.

QQQ’s near-term outlook is similar to SPY’s, with their upside case hinging upon being able to break out above their 10 DMA’s resistance; until that happens there’s not much to talk about.

Should it occur, we’re then off to try to break out above their all-time high, which will require the same high, sustained advancing volume that’s been mentioned over the past month.

The consolidation case is also the same as SPY’s, QQQ in that situation will oscillate around between the 10 & 50 day moving averages awaiting an upside or downside catalyst.

QQQ’s downside case is also quite similar to SPY’s; should the 50 day moving average’s support break down, $536.27 will be the price to watch, as if QQQ reaches it we’ll see the window created in late June close.

After that, the 200 day moving average will be in focus, which is currently -7.97% below Friday’s closing price.

Should that show weakness or break down, all eyes should be directed towards the window created in mid-May.

QQQ has support at the $542.66 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $539.40 (Volume Sneimtent: Buyers, 3.67:1), $536.88 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.67:1) & $532.43/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3:1) price levels, with resistance at the $564.29 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) & $574.63/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF declined -4.22%, as the small cap index had the worst week of the major four index ETFs.

Their RSI has also crossed below the neutral 50 mark & sits at 41.43, while their MACD continues lower with its histogram signaling that there is likely further declines on the horizon.

Volumes were +37.26% higher than the prior year’s average (41,860,000 vs. 30,497,320), which signals that there is severe discomfort among the small cap names currently, as every session of the week resulted in declining candles.

Monday the small cap investors went straight to the point compared to SPY & QQQ investors, as the session resulted in a bearish engulfing candle whose low just barely stayed above the support of the 10 day moving average.

Tuesday opened higher, before forming a bearish engulfing pattern on Monday’s candle & closing below the support of the 10 day moving average.

Wednesday opened in-line with the 10 DMA, briefly tested higher reaching as high as $224.93/share, but ultimately dipped lower to close below the 10 day moving average & the lower shadow on the day’s candle indicates that there was appetite for IWM to trade below $220/share.

It is also worth nothing that Wednesday’s volume was near Monday & Tuesday’s combined levels, so between profit taking & fleeing to safety a lot of shares were changing hands, a trend that only continued throughout the week.

Thursday the pain continued, when IWM opened on a gap down, attempted to climb back to the 10 DMA’s resistance, but was stopped short & slid for a loss of -0.98% day-over-day.

Friday the bears were on parade for IWM, as the ETF opened on a gap lower, hardly tested much higher, before breaking down to go as low as $212.34/share & to close down -2.04% for the day on the week’s highest volume as everyone was jumping out of the pool.

This is somewhat to be expected among the small cap names following the performance of SPY & QQQ, but it should be noted that IWM closed below both its 50 & 200 day moving averages, which are both well below their 10 DMA.

This breakdown of the medium & long-term trend lines will be an area of focus in the coming week, but the overall direction of IWM will most likely be determined by the direction that the other 3 major indexes move in.

Upside case as shown below requires the $216.91/share level to be broken & sustained above before it carries any water, particularly given the amount of resistance levels in the $215-217 price range & the historic Seller oriented historic price movements at these levels.

The consolidation case looks to be oscillations around the 200 DMA while awaiting an upside or downside catalyst.

To the downside, the $209.55 & $208.69/share price levels will be key to watch in the coming week if there is a downside catalyst for IWM.

In the event of a breakdown of these two levels, there are only two support levels between the price & the $199.01/share support levels, which opens IWM up for potentially large losses in the near-to-mid-term.

IWM has support at the $212.90 (2 Touch-Points, Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.89:1), $209.55 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.9:1), $208.69 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.9:1) & $206.81/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.11:1) price levels, with resistance at the $215.16 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.89:1), $215.22 (200 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.89:1), $215.34 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.89:1) & $215.65/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.89:1) price levels.

DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF lost -2.96% last week, as even the blue chip names were unable to escape the week unharmed.

Their RSI has also dipped through the neutral 50 mark to the downside & is currently at 42.44, while their MACD is continuing to move more bearishly from the signal line.

Volumes were +24.3% higher than the prior year’s average (3,996,000 vs. 3,214,760), which is cause for concern given that each session of the week was a decline & each’s volumes got progressively higher day-over-day.

Monday opened the week up with a bearish harami cross on weak volume, setting the stage for more declines to come.

Tuesday opened higher but closed down in-line with the 10 day moving average’s support, forming a bearish engulfing candle with Monday’s on slightly higher volume.

Wednesday saw a breakdown of the 10 day moving average’s support, with an appetite to continue lower based on the session’s lower shadow.

Thursday opened in line with the 10 DMA, before proceeding lower & setting the stage for Friday’s high volume gap down open that continued lower to close the day out -1.27%, while also temporarily breaking down the 50 day moving average intraday.

The upside case for DIA is going to focus on the 10 DMA’s resistance to begin; if it can’t be broken through then expect a move lower, if it can be broken through, then the breaking the all-time high case of the past month is back in place.

Consolidation looks like oscillations between the 50 & 200 day moving averages as we await an upside or downside catalyst.

Like IWM, the downside case now relied heavily upon the strength of the support of the 200 DMA, as if the long-term trendline breaks down there is a bit of Seller pressure in two of the immediate three price zones below it & sentiment is already souring based on the increasing day-over-day declining volume trend of last week.

DIA has support at the $434.00 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.5:1), $430.10 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.43:1), $428.13 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.43:1) & $427.27/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 4.5:1) price levels, with resistance at the $439.66 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.71:1), $445.14 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 14:1), $446.54 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 14:1) & $446.82/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 14:1) price levels.

The Week Ahead

Monday the week begins with Factory Orders data at 10 am.

Palantir Technologies, BioCryst Pharma, BioNTech, Bruker, CNA Financial, Energizer, Freshpet, IDEXX Labs, Krystal Biotech, onsemi, TG Therapuetics, Tower Semi, Transocean, Tyson Foods, Waters & Wayfair all report earnings before Monday’s opening bell, followed by Addus HomeCare, ADTRAN, Aecom Tech, Air Lease, Allegiant Travel, Allison Transmission, Ameresco, Andersons, Ardelyx, Atlas Energy Solutions, Axon, B&G Foods, BellRing Brands, BioMarin Pharmaceutical, BWX Technologies, Cabot, Corebridge Financial, Coterra Energy, Denny’s, Diamondback Energy, Dorman Products, Douglas Dynamics, Encompass Health, Equity Residential, EverQuote, Golub Capital, Helios Technologies, Hims & Hers Health, IAC Inc., ICHOR Corporation, Ingevity, Inspire Medical Systems, JBT Marel Corporation, Kyndryl, Lattice Semi, LTC Properties, Marriott Vacations, MSA Safety, Mueller Water, National Storage Affiliates, Navitas Semiconductor, New Mountain Finance, NJ Resources, ODDITY Tech Ltd., Olo Inc., ONEOK, Otter Tail Power, Palantir Technologies, Palomar Holdings, Paymentus, Primoris Services, Ryman Hospitality, Sabra Health Care REIT, SBA Comm, Simon Properties, Syndax Pharmaceuticals, Tanger Factory, Tidewater, Trex, UFP Technologies, V2X, Vertex Pharma, Vimeo, Viper Energy Partners, Vornado Rlty Trust, Voyager Technologies, Williams Cos & ZoomInfo after the session’s close. 

U.S. Trade Deficit Data comes out at 8:30 am on Tuesday, before S&P Final U.S. Services PMI data at 9:45 am & ISM Services data at 10 am.

Tuesday morning’s earnings reports include AdaptHealth, ADM, Alight, Apollo Global Management, Aramark, Atkore International, Avanos Medical, Axcelis Tech, Azenta, Ball Corp, BP, Broadridge Financial, Camtek, Caterpillar, Clear Secure, Cummins, Cushman & Wakefield, DigitalOcean, Driven Brands, Duke Energy, DuPont, Easterly Government Properties, Eaton, Edgewell Personal Care, Embraer SA, Enpro Inc., Enviri Corporation, EVgo Inc., Expeditors Intl, Fidelity Nat’l Info, First Watch Restaurant Group, Fox Corporation, Frontdoor, Frontier Group Holdings, Gartner, Hamilton Lane, Harmony Biosciences, Henry Schein, Hillman Solutions Corp., IPG Photonics, J&J Snack Foods, Jacobs Solutions, Knife River Corp., LCI Industries, Leidos, Lemonade, LGI Homes, Life Time, Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Marathon Petroleum, Marriott, Molson Coors Brewing, MPLX LP, NNN REIT, Northwest Natural, Novanta, Oaktree Specialty Lending Corp, Ocular Therapeutix, Organon, Pediatrix Medical Group, Pfizer, Portillo’s, Public Service, Recursion Pharmaceuticals, Rhythm Pharmaceuticals, Sally Beauty, Sealed Air, Shift4 Payments, Shoals Technologies, Silicon Labs, Spire, Sportradar Group AG, Stevanato Group S.p.A., Surgery Partners, TopBuild, Transdigm Group, UL Solutions Inc., Uniti Group, Westlake Corporation, WK Kellogg Co, Xometry, Yum China, Yum! Brands, Zebra Tech & Zoetis, before  8×8, A10 Networks, Acadia Healthcare, Adaptive Biotechnologies, Advanced Energy, Advanced Micro Devices, Aflac, Agilon Health, American Fincl, Amgen, Angi Inc., Arista Networks, Assurant, Astera Labs, BlackLine, BridgeBio Pharma, Cadre Holdings, California Resources, Centrus Energy, Chemours, Cirrus Logic, Clearway Energy, Coupang, DaVita, Devon Energy, DoubleVerify, Douglas Emmett, Elme Communities, Equitable Holdings, Evolus, Flywire, Grocery Outlet, GXO Logistics, Halozyme Therapeutics, Hinge Health, Innospec, Innovex International, Interparfums, Intl Flavors, Jackson Financial, Jazz Pharma, JELD-WEN, Kemper, Klaviyo, Lemaitre Vascular, Limbach, Lucid Group, Masimo, Match Group, MNTN, Inc., Mosaic, News Corp., Noble Corporation, ONE Gas, Opendoor Technologies, OUTFRONT Media, Pacira BioSciences, Par Pacific, Paylocity, Powell Inds, Qiagen, Qualys, QuidelOrtho, Regal Rexnord, Resideo, Revolve Group, RingCentral, Rivian Automotive, Safehold, Select Water Solutions, SITE Centers, Skyline Champion, Skyworks, Snap, Stride, Suncor Energy, Super Micro Computer, Supernus Pharma, Teradata, The Baldwin Group, Toast, Ultragenyx Pharma, Upstart, Vestis, Viasat, Voya Financial & Zeta Global report following the session’s close. 

There is no major economic data scheduled for release on Wednesday.

Wednesday morning features earnings from ACM Research, Adient, Avista, Avnet, Barrick Mining, Bentley Systems, BeOne Medicines, Bio-Techne, Bloomin’ Brands, Brinks, Capri Holdings, Carlyle Group, CDW, Cencora, Charles River, Choice Hotels, Conduent, Dave, Inc., Dayforce, Delek US Holdings, Dine Brands, DNOW Inc., Dynatrace, Emerson, ESAB Corp., Extreme Networks, Fortrea, Genius Sports, Geron, Gibraltar Industries, Global Payments, International Seaways, Iron Mountain, Jones Lang LaSalle, Kennametal, Kornit Digital, Lantheus Holdings, Lineage, LivaNova, Louisiana-Pacific, Magnera Corporation, MarketAxess, McDonald’s, Middleby, MRC Global, National Vision, New York Times, NiSource, Nomad Foods, Novavax, NRG Energy, ODP Corporation, Oscar Health, Owens Corning, Parsons, Payoneer, Perrigo, Pinnacle West, Planet Fitness, Rockwell Automation, Scholar Rock, Shopify, Six Flags Entertainment, Starz Entertainment Corp, Sunoco LP, Sunstone Hotel, Thomson Reuters, TPG Inc., Trimble, Unity Software, Valvoline, Vertex, Vishay, Walt Disney, Wix.com, Wolverine & XPEL, before  ACADIA Pharmaceuticals, ADMA Biologics, Airbnb, Alpha and Omega Semi, Amdocs, American Intl, American States Water, Amplitude, AppLovin, Atmos Energy, B2Gold, Barrett Business, Beyond Meat, Blue Bird, BrightView, Bumble, CACI Intl, Capital Southwest Corp., CareDx, Central Garden, Certara, CF Industries, Chord Energy, Civitas Resources, Clearwater Analytics, Coeur Mining, Copa Holdings, CoreCivic, Corpay, Corteva, Crane NXTC, CRH Plc., CSG Systems, Curtiss-Wright, Deluxe, DHT, Digi Intl, DoorDash, DraftKings, Duolingo, Dutch Bros, e.l.f. Beauty, Encore Capital, Energy Transfer, Enersys, EverCommerce, Exact Sciences, Fastly, Federal Realty, Fidelity National, Fortinet, FS KKR Capital, Genco Shipping & Trading, GoodRx, Grand Canyon Education, Hecla Mining, Herbalife Nutrition, Horace Mann, Howard Hughes Holdings, HubSpot, Informatica, IonQ, Jack In The Box, Joby Aviation, Kinetik, Kulicke & Soffa, LandBridge, Light & Wonder, LiveRamp, Lyft, Magnite, Manulife Financial, Marqeta, McKesson, MediaAlpha, MetLife, MKS Inc., Murphy Oil, National Health, NCR Atleos, Nutrien, Occidental Petro, OPENLANE, Orion Engineered Carbons, Ormat Tech, Pan Am Silver, Paycom Software, Permian Resources, Power Integrations, Primerica, PROCEPT BioRobotics, Rayonier, RB Global, Realty Income, Remitly Global, Root, Inc., Royal Gold, Schrodinger, Seadrill Ltd, Sinclair Broadcast, SiTime, Sitio Royalties Corp., Sonos, Sprout Social, Steris, Sunrun, Symbotic, Talos Energy, Tandem Diabetes Care, Tennant, TKO Group Holdings, Tutor Perini, U.S. Physical Therapy, Uber & UGI Corp report earnings after the closing bell. 

Thursday delivers Initial Jobless Claims & U.S. Productivity data at 8:30 am, followed by Wholesale Inventories & Fed President Bostic speaking at 10 am & Consumer Credit data at 3pm.

Constellation Energy, ACI Worldwide, Acushnet, Advanced Drainage Systems, Allete, Altice USA, Americold Realty Trust, Appian, Aspen Aerogels, Avadel Pharmaceuticals, BCE Inc, Becton Dickinson, Canadian Natrl Res, Cars.com, Cheniere Energy, Cogent Communications, Collegium Pharmaceutical, ConocoPhillips, Construction Partners, Crocs, Datadog, Dentsply Sirona, DigitalBridge, Ducommun, Ecovyst, Elanco Animal Health, Eli Lilly, Enovis Corporation, EPAM Systems, Establishment Labs, Evergy, First Advantage Corp., Gogo, Granite Constr, Haemonetics, Hanesbrands, Hertz Global, Himax Tech, Hyatt Hotels, Insmed, Installed Building Products, Janus International Group, Kelly Services, Kenvue, Kimbell Royalty Partners, Kontoor Brands, Krispy Kreme, LifeStance Health Group, Ligand Pharma, MACOM Tech, Martin Marietta, MAXIMUS, MDU Resources, Millicom International Cel, N-able, NCR Voyix Corporation, NetScout Systems, Nexstar, Nova Measuring, Olaplex, Pagaya, Papa John’s, Parker-Hannifin, Peloton, PENN Entertainment, Playtika, Prestige Consumer, Primo Brands Corporation, Privia Health, Ralph Lauren, Restaurant Brands Int’l, RXO, Inc., Sabre, Sempra Energy, SharkNinja, SolarEdge Technologies, Somnigroup International, Spectrum Brands, Starwood Property Trust, Tecnoglass, TEGNAT, United Parks & Resorts Inc., US Foods, Viatris, Vital Farms, Walker & Dunlop, Warby Parker, Warner Bros. Discovery, Warner Music Group, YETI Holdings & Zimmer Biomet, followed by 10x Genomics, Adtalem Global Education, Akamai Tech, Alarm.com, Alliant Energy, American Healthcare REIT, AMN Healthcare, Applied Optoelectronics, Arcosa, Arlo Technologies, Array Tech, Arrowhead, Artivion, Assured Guaranty, Astrana Health, Atlassian, AvePoint, Barings BDC, Block, Brighthouse Financial, CarGurus, Chesapeake Utilities, Chime, Clean Energy Fuels, Con Edison, Concentra, Corsair Gaming, Crinetics Pharmaceuticals, Cytokinetics, Definitive Healthcare, Diamondrock Hospitality, Doximity, Dropbox, Esco Tech, Evolent Health, Expedia Group, FIGS, Inc., Flutter Entertainment, Fox Factory Holding, Funko, Gen Digital, Genpact, Gilead Sciences, Globus Medical, GoDaddy, Grindr, ICU Medical, indie Semiconductor, Instacart, Insulet, Integral Ad Science, JFrog, Karman Space and Defense, Kratos Defense and Security, LegalZoom.com, Live Nation, Manitowoc, Microchip, Motorola Solutions, MP Materials, NerdWallet, nLIGHT, Omada Health, OneStream, Onto Innovation, Pembina Pipeline, Pinterest, Post, Progyny, PTC Therapeutics, Rapid7, RLJ Lodging Trust, Rocket Lab USA, RxSight, Solventum, SoundHound AI, StepStone Group, Sun Life, Sweetgreen, Synaptics, Take-Two, Texas Roadhouse, The Trade Desk, TripAdvisor, Trupanion, Twilio, Viavi, Victory Capital, Westrock Coffee Company, Wheaton Precious Metals, Wynn Resorts, XPLR Infrastructure, Xponential Fitness, Yelp & Zymeworks after the closing bell.  

There is no major economic data scheduled for release on Friday.

Friday morning’s earnings calls include Algonquin Power & Utilities, Alpha Metallurgical Resources, American Axle, Atmus Filtration Technologies, Calumet Specialty Products, Embecta Corp., Essent Group, fuboTV, Gray Media, Koppers Holdings, Lamar Advertising, Open Text, PAR Technology, Plains All American, Sotera Health, Sylvamo, Tempus AI, TeraWulf, Under Armour & Wendy’s. 

See you back here next week!

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM OR DIA AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF advanced 1.52% last week, while the VIX closed at 14.93 indicating an implied one day move of +/-0.94% & an implied one month move of +/-4.32%.

Their RSI is overbought at 76.18, while their MACD is bearish, but approaching the signal line & may dolphin above it briefly in the coming week.

Volumes were +6.57% higher than the prior year’s average (64,422,000 vs. 60,452,000), which signals that there was a bit of cautious climbing higher in response to earnings call results, given that all five sessions of the week were advancing.

However, they also came flashing warning signs as SPY continued to set new all-time highs throughout the week.

Monday the week opened on what could at first seem like an optimistic note, but closed on a rather grim outlook.

SPY opened on a gap up, climbed to temporarily break out above the $530/share level, but ultimately intraday profit taking resulted in the day losing as a gravestone doji candle, indicating caution & bearishness seeping into the market.

Tuesday was more of the same, but showed that there was some optimism surrounding earnings results, as the session opened in-line with Monday’s, tested lower, before coming back to close as a dragonfly doji.

The support of the 10 day moving average managed to hold up, signaling that the near-term trend is in-tact & the dragonfly doji signaled that there was a cautious sentiment of SPY trading higher, as Wednesday had a heavy schedule of earnings that included GOOG, RTX & TSLA amongst other large companies.

This led to a gap up open on Wednesday, making space between SPY’s price & the 10 day moving average that went relatively untested, aside from a brief dip under the $630/share price level, but shares closed +0.85% up on the day on the week’s second highest volume session.

Thursday produced the highest volume session that came with a catch.

On another gap up open, SPY managed to test higher, but profit taking began & forced the second gravestone doji candle of the week, signaling that there remained near-term uncertainty among market participants.

The week wound down on an advancing session of +0.42%, but the upp shadow on the day’s candle point to more continued caution coming into the new week.

As has been the case for weeks now, the upside case continues to remain that SPY’s all-time high needs to continue climbing higher with strong, sustainable advancing volume.

However, the higher we climb, the less likely this trend is to continue, particularly given the overheated RSI reading that we’re seeing now.

Consolidation looks like oscillations around the 10 DMA, which was -1.29% below Friday’s price at the close, while we wait for the next upside or downside catalyst.

In the event that the catalyst is to the downside & the 10 day moving average does not hold up, there are a few things to take into consideration.

The first being that the gappy ascent of the past month has some windows that have been left open, which are likely to be retested & closed.

Another area of concern is that SPY’s second highest support levels is -4.32% below Friday’s closing price.

While there are three support levels clustered in that zone (including the 50 day moving average which is still advancing), the high 2.6:1 Buyer:Seller ratio historically will likely face some dilution in the event of a retest.

This raises the importance of watching the FOMC decision on Wednesday afternoon, tariff announcements before the Friday deadline & continuing to watch earnings results to see how guidance is changing among SPY component stocks.

SPY has support at the $629.02 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $609.59 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.6:1), $607.15 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.6:1) & $606.40/share (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.6:1) price level, with resistance at the $637.58 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price level.

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF added +0.91% last week, faring the worst of the major four index ETFs.

Their RSI is overbought at 71.94, while their MACD is similar to SPY’s, bearish, but may pop above the signal line briefly this week.

Volumes were-0.8% lower than the prior year’s average (39,200,000 vs. 39,517,960), which is reason for caution given that the highest volume session of the week came on a decline.

Monday opened higher, but showed that much like SPY there were reservations about straying too far from the near-term trendline.

Tuesday confirmed this when QQQ opened higher, but ultimately declined into the session, going as low as to test the 10 day moving average’s support, but it held robust.

Tuesday’s candle also resulted in a bearish engulfing pattern with Monday’s, giving another signal that all sentiment was not entirely well for the tech heavy NASDAQ.

Wednesday inspired some sense of at least near-term optimism, when QQQ opened, retested the 10 DMA’s support again, but was able to close for an advance & form a (weak) bullish harami pattern with Tuesday’s candle.

This lead Thursday’s slight gap up open to be of no surprise, but the fact that it closed as a spinning top candle that closed lower than it opened indicates a mix of caution & confusion among market participants & ultimately does not inspire confidence heading into the new week.

Friday also confirmed this, as despite gaining +0.24% on the day, the session had the week’s lowest volume & the upper shadow on the day’s candle signal that there are cracks forming in confidence around QQQ.

Like SPY, QQQ’s bullish case involves more new all-time highs, which will require a great deal of advancing volume to wind up being successful.

Its consolidation case also is the same as SPY’s & those of weeks past; oscillations around the 10 day moving average’s support until we see some type of upside or downside catalyst.

Similarly, QQQ’s declining case is also much like that of SPY, their first support level is their 10 day moving average, which was -0.88% below Friday’s closing price & the next highest level of support is -4.76% below Friday’s close.

While there is historic Buyer sentiment at the price zone of $535-539.99, there is a window below the three support levels that it houses that needs to be closed, which will likely force a historic dilution of the Buyer strength.

In the near-term though it will be important to watch to see if price retests the three support levels mentioned & to see how sturdily they hold up.

QQQ has support at the $561.39 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $539.40 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.67:1), $538.19 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.67:1) & $536.88/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.67:1) price level, with resistance at the $567.70 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price level.

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF gained +0.92% last week, just edging out QQQ for second worst performing major index ETF of the week.

Their RSI is at 59.1, while their MACD is bearish & trending lower.

Volumes were -1.48% lower than the previous year’s average (30,110,000 vs. 30,562,000), which is signaling that there is a bit of uncertainty & hesitancy coming into this week for the small cap index.

Monday opened the week up on a bearish note, as despite some intra-day advances for IWM as shown by the session’s upper shadow, market participants sold as the day progressed & lead to a close that broke down below the 10 day moving average’s support.

Tuesday opened slightly higher, tested lower, but was able to rally higher, temporarily breaking above Monday’s opening price before settling into the close for a gain of +0.83% & forming a bullish harami pattern with Monday’s candle, signaling that there would be some near-term optimism.

Wednesday saw IWM open on a gap up, briefly see some profit taking, before climbing higher to advance +1.53%, but the day’s lower shadow showed that there was already appetite to take profits & close the window created by the gap.

Thursday saw profits taken down from the table & Friday showed that there was cautious uncertainty abound for the small cap index, as the day resulted in a bearish harami cross that’s low broke down through the 10 day moving average’s support.

The upside case for IWM is the same as last week, as despite the $226.04/share resistance levels breaking down, it came as a result of a gap up & the Seller dominated $224-227.99/share zone remained bearish & denied price to advance much higher.

Now the $226.71/share is the upside target to watch in terms of whether or not IWM can rally higher.

The consolidation case centers around the breakdown of the 10 day moving average, resulting in price oscillating between $224/share & the 200 day moving average while we await a catalyst higher or one that forces the breakdown of the long-term trendline.

The declining case also centers around the breakdown of the 200 day moving average’s support, at which time attention should be brought to the $212.50/share level, which is currently the gatekeeper for the unclosed window that was a result of a gap up in late June.

IWM has support at the $222.86 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.41:1), $222.40 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.41:1), $219.93 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.19:1) & $219.57/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.19:1) price level, with resistance at the $224.60 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.23:1), $225.37 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.23:1), $226.04 (2 Touch-Points*, Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.23:1) & $226.71/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.23:1) price levels.

DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF gained +1.3%, having the second best week of the major four index ETFs, trailing only SPY.

Their RSI is trending higher at 63.45, while their MACD is still bearish & looking like it is ready to head lower coming into the new week.

Volumes were +24.15% higher than the prior year’s average (3,984,000 vs. 3,209,080), which reflects Wednesday’s high volume advancing session & Thursday’s almost as high volume profit taking session primarily.

Monday opened up with appetite for higher prices, but the open & close were straddling the 10 day moving average’s support, show uneasiness among market participants.

Tuesday opened lower & below the 10 DMA, but was able to rally back to close above it for an intra-day gain of +0.34%.

Wednesday opened on a gap higher, briefly retraced a dip lower before powering higher to set a new all-time high on the week’s strongest volume.

Thursday opened on a gap lower, advanced higher briefly, before Sellers came out in droves forcing the session to close on the second highest volume of the week on a bearish gravestone doji candle.

Friday opened on a gap up, retraced down briefly to beyond the lows of Thursday’s session, before climbing higher to advance +0.43% for the day.

This lower shadow signaled that there is appetite for the window created by Wednesday’s gap to be filled in the near-term.

The advancing case for DIA is similar to those of SPY & QQQ, as they are all in similar proximity to all-time highs.

While Wednesday featured high advancing volume, the sustainability has not been shown, both due to the other low volume advancing sessions & by Thursday’s high volume declining session.

Their consolidation case is also similar to the aforementioned index ETFs, as it will likely be oscillations around the 10 day moving average awaiting an upside or downside catalyst.

In the event of a decline, the next three support levels reside in an extreme Buyer oriented zone, which will likely see some dilution in the near-term as there has historically been limited downside action in it.

If the 10 day moving average breaks down, the next ~1% of price has no support levels & is historically dominated by Sellers, which would be cause for further declines, making the $439.66/share support level important.

This is because in the event it breaks down, the next support levels is -1.74% below & sits atop another Seller zone just $0.03 below it, which would likely see more declines that would force the closing of windows left open from late June 2025.

DIA has support at the $446.82 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 14:1), $446.54 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 14:1), $444.96 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 14:1) & $439.66/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.71:1) price level, with resistance at the $450.25 (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price level.

The Week Ahead

Monday opens the week up on a quiet note on the economic news front.

Bank of Hawaii, Enterprise Products & Revvity all report earnings before Monday morning’s session, with Ameris Bancorp, Amkor, Bank of N.T. Butterfield & Son, Beyond, Brixmor Property, Brown & Brown, Cadence Design, Cincinnati Financial, CNO Financial, COPT Defense Properties, Crane, Curbline Properties, Exelixis, Harmonic, Hartford Financial, Kforce, Kilroy Realty, NOV Inc., Nucor, Olin, Piedmont Office Realty Trust, PotlatchDeltic, Principal Financial Group, Rambus, Sanmina, Simpson Manufacturing, UFP Industries, Ultra Clean Holdings, Universal Health, Veralto, Waste Management, Welltower, Western Union, Whirlpool & Woodward after the closing bell.

Advanced U.S. Trade Balance in Goods, Advanced Retail Inventories & Advance Wholesale Inventories all are released Tuesday morning at 8:30 am, before S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index (20 Cities) data at 9 am and Consumer Confidence & Job Openings data at 10 am.

Tuesday morning’s earnings kick off with Procter & Gamble, Alkermes Plc, American Tower, Anywhere Real Estate, Ares Capital, Armstrong World Industries, Asbury Automotive, AstraZeneca, Bandwidth, Brightstar Lottery, Carrier Global, CBRE Group, CECO Environ., Celestica, Commvault Systems, Constellium, Corning, DTE Energy, Eagle Materials, Ecolab, Expro Group, Franklin Electric, GATX, GeneDx, Graphic Packaging, Herc Holdings, Hubbell, Incyte, JetBlue Airways, Johnson Controls, Lithia Motors, Merck, Neogen, NeoGenomics, Norfolk Southern, PayPal, Philips, PJT Partners, Polaris Industries, Repligen, Royal Caribbean, SoFi Technologies, Spotify, Stanley Black & Decker, Sysco, Trimas, UBS AG, UnitedHealth & UPS, before Acadia Realty Trust, Arch Capital, Artisan Partners Asset Mgmt, Ashland, AtriCure, Avis Budget, AXIS Capital, Booking Holdings, BXP, Inc., Caesars Entertainment, Camping World, Cheesecake Factory, Chemed, Electronic Arts, Essex Property, ExlService, Expand Energy, First Commonwealth, First Interstate Bancsystem, Four Corners Property Trust, Freshworks, Frontier Communications Parent, FTAI Aviation Ltd., Gildan Activewear, Highwoods Prop, Houlihan Lokey, Landstar System, Lending Club, Logitech Int’l SA, MARA Holdings Inc., Mondelez Int’l, Nabors Industries, Nextracker, NMI Hldgs, Northwest Bancshares, O-I Glass, Pebblebrook Hotel Trust, Penumbra, PPG Industries, Qorvo, Red Rock Resorts, Regency Centers, Republic Services, Seagate Tech, Sensata Tech, STAG Industrial, Starbucks, Teladoc, Teradyne, Ternium S.A., Titan America, UMB Financial Corporation, Unum Group, Varonis Systems, Visa, W.P. Carey, Werner Enterprises, WesBanco Inc. & Zurn Elkay Water Solutions report following the session’s closing bell. 

Wednesday kicks off with ADP Employment data at 8:15 am, followed by GDP data at 8:30 am, Pending Home Sales data at 10 am, the FOMC Interest-Rate Decision at 2 pm & Fed Chair Powell’s Press Conference at 2:30 pm.

AerCap, Agnico-Eagle Mines, Altria, American Electric, ArcBest, Ardmore Shipping, Automatic Data, Axalta Coating Systems, Bausch + Lomb, Blackbaud, Bunge, CGI Group, Check Point Software, Chefs’ Warehouse, Clarivate, Clean Harbors, Criteo, Entegris, Entergy, Etsy, Evercore, Federal Signal, Fiverr, Fortive, Fresh Del Monte, Garmin, Gates Industrial, GE HealthCare, Generac, GlaxoSmithKline, Harley-Davidson, Hayward Holdings, Hershey Foods, Hess Midstream Partners, Humana, IDEX Corp, Illinois Tool, InMode, Ionis Pharma, Kraft Heinz, Leonardo DRS, Littelfuse, LXP Industrial Trust, Materion, Monro Muffler, Navient, New Oriental Education & Technology, Newmark Group, OGE Energy, Old Dominion, OneSpaWorld, Option Care Health, Penske Auto, ProPetro, Radware, Reynolds Consumer Products, Scorpio Tankers, Scotts Miracle-Gro, Silgan Holdings, SiteOne Landscape Supply, Sleep Number, Smurfit Westrock plc, Stepan Company, Steven Madden, Stifel Financial, Strategic Education, Teva Pharma, The Vita Coco Company, Thryv, Timken, Tradeweb Markets, Trane, United Therapeutics, V.F. Corp, Verisk Analytics, Vertiv, Virtu Financial, Watsco, WEC Energy Group & Wingstop all report earnings before Wednesday’s opening bell, followed by Albany Intl, Albemarle, Align Tech, Alignment Healthcare, Alkami Technology, American Water Works, Antero Midstream, Antero Resources, Applied Digital Corporation, Arm Holdings plc, AvalonBay, Axos Financial, Benchmark Electronics, Black Hills Corp, C.H. Robinson, Cactus, Canadian Pacific Kansas City, Carlisle Cos, Carvana, CBIZ, Cognex, Cognizant Tech, Comstock, Confluent, CONMED, Custom Truck One Source, CVR Energy, Dexcom, eBay, Element Solutions, Employers Holdings, EPR Properties, Equinix, Ethan Allen, Everest Group, EVERTEC, Extra Space Storage, F5 Networks, Fair Isaac, FirstEnergy, Flowserve, FMC Corp, Ford Motor, FormFactor, Glaukos, Green Brick Partners, Guardant Health, Hanover Insurance, Hologic, Host Hotels, Impinj, Independence Realty Trust, Invitation Homes, Lam Research, Magnolia Oil & Gas, Merit Medical, Meta Platforms, MGIC Investment, MGM Resorts, Microsoft, Mid-America Aptmt, Mister Car Wash, Modine Manufacturing, Murphy USA, MYR Group, National Fuel Gas, NETGEAR, Neurocrine Biosciences, NorthWestern, Pilgrim’s Pride, Pitney Bowes, Prudential, PTC, Public Storage, Q2 Holdings, Qualcomm, Radian Group, Robinhood Markets, Rush Enterprises, Rush Street Interactive, Service Corp, Silicon Motion, Sixth Street Specialty Lending, Sprouts Farmers Market, SPS Commerce, Sturm Ruger, Sun Communities, Tenable, Tenaris, Tetra Tech, TransMedics Group, Tronox, TTM Tech, Tyler Tech, Udemy, UDR, Ventas, VICI Properties, VSE Corp, Waystar Holding Corp. & Western Digital after the session closes.  

Initial Jobless Claims, Employment Cost Index, Personal Income, Personal Spending, PCE Index, PCE (Year-over-Year), Core PCE Index & Core PCE Index (Year-over-Year) are all released Thursday at 8:30 am, before the Chiacgo Business Barometer (PMI) data is released at 9:45 am.

Thursday’s morning earnings calls include AbbVie, AGCO Corp, Air Products, Alamos, Allegro Microsystems, Alnylam Pharma, Ametek, Amicus Therapeutics, Anheuser-Busch InBev, APi Group, Aptiv, ArcelorMittal, Arrow Electronics, ATI Inc., Autohome, Balchem, Baxter, Belden, BigCommerce, Biogen, BorgWarner, Bristol-Myers, Brookfield Infrastructure, Builders FirstSource, California Water, Cameco, Canada Goose, Carpenter Tech, Chart Industries, CMS Energy, Colliers, Comcast, Cullen/Frost, CVS Health, Donnelley Financial, DT Midstream, EMCOR Group, Euronet, Exelon, Genesis Energy, L.P., GFL Environmental, HF Sinclair, Hilton Grand Vacations, Howmet Aerospace, Huntington Ingalls, IdaCorp, Insight Enterprises, Int’l Paper, Integra, Intercontinental Exchange, InterDigital, Itron, ITT, Janus Henderson Group, KBR, Kellanova, Kimco Realty, Kinross Gold, Kirby, KKR, Laureate Education, Lightspeed, Lincoln Electric, Lincoln National, Masco, Mastercard, Methanex, MGP Ingredients, Norwegian Cruise Line, Oil States, Omnicell, Patrick Industries, PBF Energy, Peabody Energy, PG&E, PPL Corp, Protolabs, Quanta Services, Roblox, S&P Global, Sanofi, Schneider National, Shake Shack, Sirius XM, Southern, Stagwell, TC Energy, Teleflex, Terex, The Cigna Group, TreeHouse Foods, Trinity Industries, Upbound Group, Utz Brands, Valaris, Vericel, Vontier, Vulcan Materials, Wesco, Willis Towers Watson, Xcel Energy, XPO, Inc. & Xylem, with Amazon.com,  Apple, Agree Realty, Alphatec, Ameren, American Homes 4 Rent, AppFolio, AptarGroup, Arthur J. Gallagher, Beazer Homes, Bio-Rad Labs, BJ Restaurants, Bloom Energy, Bright Horizons, Camden Property, Casella Waste, CCC Intelligent Solutions, Clorox, Cloudflare, Cohu, Coinbase Global, Columbia Sportswear, Cousins Prop, CubeSmart, Dolby Labs, DXC Technology, Eastman Chemical, Edison, El Pollo Loco, Enovix, Envista, Essential Utilities, Eversource Energy, eXp World Holdings, Exponent, Federated Hermes, First Solar, Five9, Floor & Decor, Fortune Brands Innovations, Grid Dynamics, Healthcare Realty, Hercules Capital, Hub Group, Huntsman, Huron Consulting, ICF International, Illumina, Ingersoll-Rand, Innodata, iRhythm, KLA Corporation, Leggett & Platt, LendingTree, LPL Financial, Lumen Technologies, MasTec, Matson, Mettler-Toledo, MicroStrategy d/b/a Strategy, Monolithic Power, Northern Oil & Gas, Omega Health, Park Hotels & Resorts, Perdoceo Education, Procore Technologies, PROS Holdings, Quaker Chemical, Reinsurance Group of America, ResMed, Rocket Companies, Roku, Ryan Specialty Group, Savers Value Village, Select Medical, Skyward Specialty Insurance, SM Energy, SPX Technologies, Stryker, Universal Display, WillScot Mobile Mini, Workiva & World Kinect Corporation  host their earnings calls after the session’s close.

Friday begins with U.S. Employment report, U.S. Unemployment Rate, U.S. Hourly Wages & Hourly Wages Year-over-Year data at 8:30 am, followed by S&P Final U.S. Manufacturing PMI data at 9:45 am and ISM Manufacturing, Construction Spending & Consumer Sentiment (Final) data at 10 am.

Ares Management, Avantor, Avient, BrightSpring Health Services, Cboe Global Markets, Chevron, Church & Dwight, Colgate-Palmolive, Dominion Energy, Exxon Mobil, Fluor, Fortis, Franklin Resources, Fulgent Genetics, Grainger, Imperial Oil, Ingredion, Insperity, Interface, Kimberly-Clark, Linde plc, LyondellBasell, Magna, Moderna, Newell Brands, nVent Electric, Oshkosh, Perella Weinberg Partners, Piper Sandler, RBC Bearings, Regeneron Pharma, T. Rowe Price, Telus, WisdomTree & Xenia Hotels all report earnings before the session’s closing bell. 

See you back here next week!

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES NOR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM, OR DIA AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF gained +0.64%, while the VIX closed at 16.41, indicating an implied one day move of +/-1.03% & an implied one month move of +/-4.74%.

Their RSI is right up against the overbought 70 level, currently sitting at 68.91, while their MACD is relatively flat but bearish in relation to their signal line.

Volumes were +23.56% higher than the previous year’s average (74,455,000 vs. 60,258,473.9), as big banks kicked off the fresh earnings season & did pretty well for the most part.

Monday the week began with an advancing session that showed that the support of the 10 day moving average appears to still be sturdy & robust.

The next day signaled that there may be some turbulence on the horizon though, as the session opened higher on a gap up, before declining all the way down to close in-line with the 10 day moving average’s support forming a bearish engulfing pattern with Monday’s candle on the week’s second highest volume.

Wednesday brought us the highest volume session of the week, and despite advancing & forming a bullish harami pattern with Tuesday’s candle, warning signs continued to flash.

The session opened within Wednesday’s candle’s real body, but broke out downward, took out the 10 day moving average as a support levels temporarily, before roaring back intraday to close as a dragonfly doji.

The day’s low broke through the $620/share level, indicating that there is a bit of appetite for SPY to be below that price level, which we may see within the next week.

Thursday saw a higher open that stayed above the 10 DMA’s support & ultimately the day closed up +0.61%.

Friday’s session certainly left market participants with questions, as the day opened on a gap up, tested slightly higher, before collapsing into the close & leaving a possibility for an evening star pattern to emerge with today’s session, which would be bearish.

Heading into the new week, all eyes will be on the plethora of earnings reports (listed below) and there is not a ton of economic data for release.

The upside case will require a major catalyst, which will be interesting to see given how lofty earnings expectations are for many of the companies reporting this week.

Given that we’re still at all-time highs, that would require some serious earnings beats & upwards future guidance figures, which seems unlikely to happen outside for a few names.

However, volumes have remained elevated which has helped SPY & its component Stocks grind higher.

The consolidation case continues to be the same as the weeks prior, where oscillations around the 10 day moving average would be the most likely case while we await the aforementioned catalyst.

To the downside, the first support level is the 10 day moving average, and then there is nothing for another -2.33%, at which point the gap up form late June is going to be nearby & will possibly be filled.

With this in mind, the downside levels that are most important to watch are the 10 DMA, $609.59 & the 50 DMA in the coming week(s).

SPY has support at the $624.13 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $609.59 (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $607.15 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.6:1) & $603.42/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 7:1) price levels, with resistance at the$629.47/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF advanced +1.27% last week, as the tech-heavy index was the favorite destination among market participants.

Their RSI is in overbought territory & beginning to signal downward following today’s session, currently sitting at 71.08, while their MACD is bearish, but floundering about near the signal line following

Volumes were +17.68% higher than the prior year’s average (46,622,500 vs. 39,619,076.31), which is primarily due to Wednesday’s advancing session & Friday’s declining session.

Monday opened up slightly, briefly testing below the support of the 10 day movign average, but was able to muster an intra-day gain of +0.36%.

Tuesday opened on a gap up, and while it stayed away from the 10 DMA, it closed almost ~1% lower than the session opened, gaining +0.09% day-over-day, but signaling that there is limited upside appetite still there unless we get some form of upside catalyst.

Wednesday confirmed this & showed that there is a bit more downside appetite than originaly thought, as the session opened on a gap lower, tested up to $560.21 & as low as $551.56, only to close as a high wave doji at $557.29.

While it closed closer to the high end of the day’s range, the day exposed that there is a variety of thoughts as to where QQQ should be valued currently.

This was also on the week’s highest volume, indicating that there was a bit of profit taking going on as there was a bit of uneasiness so close to the all-time high.

Thursday opened on a gap up & pushed higher to close +0.81% & setting a new all-time high, but the volume was not as strong as Wednesday’s, indicating that there is waning enthusiasm at prices so high & that folks are becoming more cautious.

Friday opened on a gap up, but the second highest volume session of the week left market participants with a bit of uncertainty heading into the weekend.

The day resulted in a spinning top that was able to tread water above the $560/share level, but the spinning top shows that there was quite a bit of uncertainty & the high volume shows market participants were eager to take some profits & head risk-off into the weekend.

QQQ is slightly different than SPY now, in that it is slightly leading the four major indexes & is a bit more extended, making it less likely to see an upside surprise of much strength or magnitude.

In the event of one though, you will need sturdy, sustained increases in advancing volume before QQQ marches much higher in the near-term.

The consolidation case looks like a continuation of the range that we’ve been seeing all month, with QQQ oscillating around the 10 day moving average, where a keen eye should be placed on the $550/share level, as in the event of a breakdown that would lead us into the declining case.

The declining case is similar to SPY’s in that once the 10 day moving average breaks down, there is no support levels again until -3.05% lower.

In the event of a decline that reaches the second support levels at $539.40, all eyes should be on the 50 day moving average’s support, as well as the bottom of the window from June 23, 2025 at $531.65 which has not been filled yet.

Again, QQQ is likely to lead SPY in the coming week(s) due to the large volume of tech companies reporting earnings & limited economic data being released.

The table below will be helpful in assessing the strength & weakness of support/resistance levels.

QQQ has support at the $556.36 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $539.40 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.67:1), $536.88 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.67:1) & $532.43/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3:1) price levels, with resistance at the $564.73/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF declined -0.65% for the week, as the small cap index was shunned in favor of the other three major indexes for the week.

Their RSI is trending back towards the neutral 50-mark, currently at 58.95, while their MACD is bearish after crossing over early this week.

Volumes were +37.01% higher than the prior year’s average (42,140,000 vs. 30,757,068), as there was a bit of profit taking & shares exchanging hands during the week.

Monday the week kicked off on an optimistic note for IWM, as the session resulted in a bullish engulfing pattern, but the session’s volume was the lowest of the entire week.

Tuesday opened on a gap up, only the decline all day throughout the session to form a bearish engulfing pattern & expose that the support of the 10 day moving average was not so sturdy, as the session closed beneath it on volume that eclipsed the previous day’s level.

Wednesday began to really expose the cracks that Tuesday brought attention to, as while the session resulted in a bullish harami pattern day-over-day, the high never touched the resistance of the 10 DMA & the lower shadow on the day’s candle expose that there was a lot of downside appetite for IWM.

While some of this came from profit taking, per the session being the week’s highest volume, there was clearly a run made at the 200 day moving average’s support, indicating that there is less belief in the strength of the long-term trend line than may have originally been though since the breakout above it in late June.

Thursday saw an advance of +1.31% & price broke above the resistance of the 10 DMA, but Friday proved this to be short lived.

Friday opened on a gap up, that quickly saw profits being taken down from the table in droves, where the session’s low temporarily broke down below the support of the 10 DMA, but the session closed $0.29 above it heading into the weekend.

The upside case for IWM remains similar to what it’s been the past couple of weeks, $225.37-$226.05 are going to be a key area of focus that need to be passed through with conviction that comes in the form of high volume in order to see any sustainable advances.

This is especially true, as per the table below the $224-227.99/share price zone for IWM has historically been a Seller dominated zone, which will require even more effort to break through these resistance levels.

A consolidation around here for IWM likely comes in the form of oscillations between the 10 & 200 day moving averages while we await an upside or downside catalyst.

The downside argument here brings our attention to the $216.76-216.91/share support zone, as if it breaks down the next price zone is another Seller zone that also houses the long-term trendline.

If the 200 DMA’s support breaks down in this zone then the $211.77/share price level at the bottom of the window left open from late June becomes a new target, and the sturdiness of the 50 day moving average will be tested.

While it is currently in a Buyer dominated zone, the sentiment change that would be reflected by prices being that low would make it more difficult to find stable footing for IWM in the near-term, making the chart below worth examining before any of these levels are retested.

IWM has support at the $222.04 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.41:1), $219.93 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.19:1), $219.57 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.19:1) & $216.91/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.19:1) price levels, with resistance at the $222.40 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.41:1), $225.37 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.23:1), $226.04 (Two Touch-points*, Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.23:1) & $226.05/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.23:1) price levels.

DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF dipped -0.07% for the week, as market participants mostly held onto their blue chip holdings.

Their RSI is trending back towards the neutral 50 level, currently at 59.41, while their MACD crossed over bearishly during the week.

Volumes were +23.29% higher than the prior year’s average (42,140,000 vs. 3,189,678.71), likely due to a solid amount of profit taking given how close the day-over-day changes in volume were for Tuesday through Friday.

Monday was relatively quiet on the volume front for DIA & while the day resulted in a bullish engulfing pattern, there was limited conviction behind the move, which we saw based on the weekly change in price.

Tuesday opened on a gap higher, but the strength of the 10 day moving average’s support was no match for the market forces that pushed DIA lower, forming a bearish engulfing pattern & closing at $439.97/share.

Wednesday saw the week’s highest volume, and much like IWM the level of profit taking & shares exchanging hands exposed the downside appetite from an investor’s standpoint on DIA.

The day’s lower shadow went down to $437.36/share before it was able to rally back to close up +0.5% on the day, but the resulting candle did not spark feelings of comfort among market participants.

Thursday opened slightly lower, but prices squeezed higher for a D-o-D gain of +0.65% & DIA managed to break above the 10 day moving average’s resistance again.

Friday signaled that there was limited risk appetite heading into the weekend, and DIA opened on a gap higher, only to decline through the support of the 10 DMA once again & close just below it on the day.

Unlike IWM, DIA is close to all-time highs, making any upside movement more like the SPY & QQQ cases mentioned above, there will need to be meaningful advancing volume behind any moves for them to be taken seriously.

The consolidation case is almost highly similar to SPY & QQQ’s, in that there will likely be oscillations around the 10 day moving average awaiting an upside or downside catalyst, while hopefully remaining over $440/share.

In the event that the $440/share level breaks down, we’re likely to see the windows created by late June’s gappy behavior begin to fill, which places us in the downside scenario.

That would bring DIA’s price face to face with their long-term trend line, which is in a Buyer zone currently, but based on the gappy behavior we saw last month may be primed to give out under the momentum gained by the window closings.

This could become especially dangerous given the proximity of the 50 DMA to the 200 DMA & the fact that the 10 DMA will be a long in tow closely to price, which would add extra pressure against the 200 DMA’s support strength in the event of a death cross.

DIA has support at the $439.66 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.71:1), $430.10 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.43:1), $428.83 (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.43:1) & $428.13/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.43:1) price levels, with resistance at the $443.49 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.24:1), $446.54 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 14:1), $446.82 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 14:1) & $448.68/share (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

The Week Ahead

Monday the week begins with U.S. Leading Economic Indicators at 10 am.

Cleveland-Cliffs, Domino’s Pizza, Roper & Verizon Communications report earnings before Monday morning’s opening bell, with Agilysis, Alexandria RE, BOK Financial, Calix Networks, Crown Holdings, Equity LifeStyle Properties, Medpace, NXP Semiconductors, RLI Corp., Steel Dynamics, W.R. Berkley, Wintrust Financial & Zions Bancorp reporting after the session’s close.

Fed Chair Powell delivers opening remarks at a banking conference at 8:30 am on Tuesday.

Tuesday morning’s earnings calls include Coca-Cola, Avery Dennison, Badger Meter, Community Financial System, D.R. Horton, Danaher, Equifax, First Bancorp, General Motors, Genuine Parts, Halliburton, Hope Bancorp, Interpublic, Invesco, IQVIA, KeyCorp, Lockheed Martin, MSCI, Northrop Grumman, Old National Bancorp, PACCAR, Pentair, Philip Morris International, PulteGroup, Quest Diagnostics, RTX, Sherwin-Williams, Synchrony Financial, Tenet Healthcare & Valmont Industries, before Baker Hughes, Cal-Maine Foods, Capital One Financial, Cathaty General Bancorp, Chubb, CoStar Group, East West Bancorp, Enphase Energy, EQT Corp., Intuitive Surgical, Manhattan Associates, Matador Resources, National Bank, Pegasystems, Penny Mac, Range Resources, Renasant, SAP SE, Texas Intrustments, Trustmark & Vicor after the closing bell.

Wednesday delivers Existing Home Sales at 10 am.

Amphenol, AT&T, BankUnited, Boston Scientific, CME Group, Fiserv, Freeport-McMoran, GE Vernova, General Dynamics, Hasbro, Healthcare Services Group, Hilton, Lamb Weston, Lennox International, M/I Homes, Moody’s, Mr. Cooper Group, NextEra Energy, Northern Trust, NVR, Otis Worldwide, Popular, PROG Holdings, Prosperity Bancshares, Rogers Communications, Taylor Morrison Home, TE Connectivity, Teledyne Technologies, Travel + Leisure & United Community Banks report earnings on Wednesday morning, followed by Alphabet, Tesla, Alaska Air Group, ASGN Incorporated, Banc of California, Cadence Bank, Century Communities, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Churchill Downs, Community Health, Core Labs, Crown Castle, CSX, EastGroup, Essential Properties Realty Trust, First American Financial, Globe Life, Goosehead Insurance, Graco, International Business Machines, ICON, Kaiser Aluminum, Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings, Las Vegas Sands, Mattel, MaxLinear, Meritage Homes, Molina Healthcare, O’Reilly Automotive, Oceaneering International, Packaging Corporation of America, Plexus, QuantumScape, Raymond James, Reliance, RenaissanceRE, Ribbon Communications, Robert Half, Rollins, SEI Investments, Selective Insurance, ServiceNow, Sonoco Products, SS&C Technologies Holdings, Stewart Information Services, T-Mobile US, United Rentals, Viking Therapuetics, Waste Connections, WEX & Wyndham Hotels & Resorts after the closing bell.

Initial Jobless Claims data comes out Thursday at 8:30 am, followed by S&P Flash U.S. Services PMI & S&P Flash U.S. Manufacturing PMI data at 9:45 am & New Home Sales data at 10 am.

A.O. Smith, ADT, Allegion, AllianceBernstein, American Airlines, Ameriprise Financial, Ardagh Metal Packaging, Atlantic Union Bankshares, Berkshire Hills Bancorp, Blackstone, Bread Financial, Brunswick, CenterPoint, CNX Resources, Comcast, CVB Financial, Darling Ingredients, Dover, Dow, FirstCash, FirstService, Flex, FTI Consulting, Group 1 Auto, HNI, Honeywell, IMAX, Integer Holdings, Iridium Communications, Keurig Dr. Pepper, L3Harris, Labcorp Holdings, Lazard, Lincoln Electric, LKQ, Mobileye Global, Mohawk Industries, Nasdaq, NovoCure, Old Republic, PHINIA, Pool, RPC, RPM, Ryder System, Sonic Automotive, STMicroelectronics, TechnipFMC, Teck Resources, Textron, Tractor Supply, TransUnion, TRI Pointe Homes, Union Pacific, Valero Energy, Valley National, Visteon, Wabtec, West Pharmaceutical Services & WNS report earnings Thursday morning before the opening bell, before Agnico-Eagle Mines, Associated Banccorp, Boyd Gaming, Celestica, Columbia Banking, Coursera, Customers Bancorp, Deckers Outdoor, Digital Realty Trust, Edwards Lifesciences, Enova International, First Financial Bancorp, Gaming and Leisure Properties, Glacier Bancorp, Healthpeak Properties, Hexcel, Intel, Kinsale Capital, Knowles, Liberty Energy, McGrath RentCorp, Minerals Technologies, Moelis, Newmont, Phillips Edison & Company, Sallie Mae, Seacoast Banking, SkyWest, South State, VeriSign, Weyerhaeuser & WSFS Financial after the closing bell.

Friday the week winds down with Durable-Goods Orders & Durable-Goods minus Transportation data at 8:30 am.

Aon, AutoNation, Booz Allen Hamilton, Centene, Charter Communications, First Hawaiian, Flagstar Financial, Gentex, HCA, Lakeland Financial, Lear, Moog, OneMain Holdings, Phillips 66, Portland General Electric, Saia, Sensient, Stellar Bank, TriNet Group & Wabash National are all scheduled to report earnings on Friday morning before the session’s open. 

See you back here next week!

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM OR DIA AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF closed the week out down -0.28%, while the VIX closed at 16.4, indicating an implied one day move of +/-1.03% & an implied one month move of +/-4.74%.

Their RSI is straddling the overbought 70 level & currently sits at 68.45, while their MACD is flat, but its histogram is signaling that it is fading & likely to see a bearish crossover in the coming days.

Volumes were 2.89% higher than the previous year’s average (61,582,500 vs. 59,854,720), which is not a signal of confidence given that three of the five sessions of the week resulted in declines.

Monday the week opened on a weak note, as the week’s highest volume session resulted in a decline of -0.75% & the lower shadow of the day’s candle managed to break down below the $620/share level temporarily, indicating that there was some profits being taken still from the previous week’s rally.

Tuesday opened slightly higher, only to continue the declines as the session wore on, but it was more of a continuation of Monday’s action, given that the volume was noticeably lower.

Wedensday the gap ups of the previous couple of weeks returned, but the lower shadow of the day’s session indicated that there was still a strong tendency towards the 10 day moving average, which had inched closer following the previous two days.

While Wednesday was the week’s second highest volume session, the spinning top candle it resulted in show a severe amount of uncertainty heading into bank earnings week & readings on inflation data.

Thursday opened on a much smaller gap up & the party rallied on, as a new all-time high was reached, but the mediocre volume didn’t show that there was much enthusiasm in the air.

Friday the evening star pattern emerged, but with a twist as the session opened on a gap down, approached the 10 day moving average’s support but kicked higher to close above its open, but still for a loss on the day.

Yes, there’s a bit to unpack there; a gap down open is bearish, the 10 DMA maintaining support indicates not bearishness in the near-term (or at least appetite to remain above it as it continues higher), the close above the open is not viewed bearishly, but the evening star pattern is bearish.

Heading into the new week that is going to be marked primarily by big bank earnings, Fed Speakers & CPI/PPI data, any potential upside case will be targeting a new all-time high & require some serious advancing volume behind it to be sustainable.

The consolidation case may still show a near-term new all-time high, where SPY straddles its 10 day moving average as market participants digest the information that they’re about to receive & think about how prospective tariffs also will impact that data & future company/market performance.

In the event of a consolidation while awaiting an upside or downside catalyst, it will be important to keep an eye on the gaps that have taken place over the past few weeks, as they will look to be filled, which would force declines.

The support levels below SPY’s closing price from Friday are all in an interesting area, as due to the nature of being at all-time highs their Buyer:Seller historic data is skewed towards the Buyers as we are at a price extreme.

However, they are also relatively sparse, as the data below shows which signals that any declines could be more violent than anticipated, particularly due to the gaps mentioned above.

SPY has support at the $621.07 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $609.59 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.6:1), $603.42 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 7:1) & $593.51/share (50 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.91:1) price levels, with resistance at the $626.87/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF dipped -0.36% for the week in a week where all of the major indexes felt some pain.

Their RSI is trending out of overbought territory & currently sits at 66.53, while their MACD is looking ready to cross over bearishly across the signal line in the coming day or two.

Volumes were -2.92% lower than the previous year’s average (38,382,500 vs. 39,536,320), which shows that there is still quite a bit of enthusiasm for names such as NVDA & ORCL, although it should be noted that the past year’s volume is still much lower than it had been for the years prior.

Monday QQQ opened on a gap down & temporarily broke down below the $550/share level after approaching the 10 day moving average’s support, but did not officially test it during the week’s highest volume session.

Tuesday’s candle added a hint of complexity to the week, when the session opened just below Monday’s open & closed just above it’s closing price, forming a harami pattern that is technically bearish given the day closed lower than it opened in terms of market participants sentiment.

Both of the first two candles of the week were spinning tops, indicating indecision among market participants.

That remained the theme of the week, when Wednesday produced a gap up open & a new all-time high for QQQ on the week’s second highest volume, and the candle resulted in a spinning top.

Thursday opened on a gap up, but was unable to test as high as Wednesday’s high & there was quite a bit of profit taking as shown by the day’s lower shadow.

Thursday was also the lowest volume of the week & resulted in a spinning top, indicating that the uncertainty still reigned supreme, but that there was now signs of appetite down by the 10 day moving average’s support.

Friday the week began to show that there was fear creeping into market, as a gap down open tested below the 10 day moving average briefly, before closing the session out as a loss & a doji candle heading into the weekend.

Much like SPY, QQQ is near its all-time high, so the upside case is going to require a breakout above their ATH & an increase in volume if it wants to remains sustainable.

A consolidation would look like a continuation of last week, but oscillating around the 10 day moving average which has now begun to show signs of frailty.

In the event of a decline, much like SPY there are sparse support levels around for QQQ, which means that there’s not much for QQQ to find footing on nearby & due to how high QQQ sits, there is a skewed view of Buyer:Seller traffic in the direction of the Buyers as we are near the top.

Still, the chart below can be referenced to use as a barometer while navigating & assessing the strength of any support levels that QQQ encounters in the coming weeks.

QQQ has support at the $552.40 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*), $539.40 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.67:1), $536.88 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3.67:1) & $532.43/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3:1) price levels, with resistance at the $557.63/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF shed -0.62%, as the small cap index managed to outperform the larger blue chip Dow Jones.

Their RSI is trending back from the overbought levels & is currently 62.3, while their MACD is showing signs of curling over bearishly, likely to cross over by the end of the week.

Volumes were +7.91% higher than the prior year’s average (33,555,000 vs. 31,095,160), signaling that there is waning enthusiasm about the future of the small-cap index & investors are seeking a more risk-off approach currently.

Monday opened on a gap down, attempted a run higher & broke the $222.50/share mark briefly, before the bottom came out & everyone began piling out of the pool, resulting in a daily decline & the week’s highest volume.

Lot of profit taking from the previous week and a half’s rally above the long-term trend line.

Tuesday opened higher, briefly broke above Monday’s opening price, but sunk down to close for a daily advance & form a bullish harami pattern.

Wednesday opened as a gap up, retraced back down to Tuesday’s range for a bit before powering higher to close as an advancing session near the day’s high.

Thursday opened higher, tested back in Wednesday’s range, but continued climbing, reaching as high as $226.05, but closing at $224.80/share, indicating that market participants had begun to think that IWM had strayed too far from its 200 day moving average after its recent breakout above it.

Friday the week closed out following that narrative, as the session opened on a gap lower, was unable to break above far into Thursday’s real body & the session deflated throughout the day as there was risk-off into the weekend sentiment abound & profits taken following that three day rally.

The upside case for IWM heading into a new week will likely be determined by a gap up & how aggressively market participants come pouring in.

The $226/share level would then likely be encroached upon following the gap, where there are two touch-points at $226.04 & one at $226.05/share, in a zone that is historically dominated by Seller volume.

That’s a gate that will need to break down & will be tested unless gapped over, so keep an eye out for that.

There’s also an emergence of a bearish head & shoulders with the left shoulder occurring in early August 2024 at $226.04, the head forming in November of 2024 at $243.04 & Thursday’s $226.05/share forming the right shoulder.

While this is unconfirmed yet, it is something else to watch for in that upside argument.

In the event of a consolidation, IWM will likely oscillate around its 10 DMA awaiting an upside/downside catalyst.

The downside gets interesting, because the 10 day moving average will have to breakdown first, with price either going straight to test the 200 DMA’s support or consolidating briefly in between the long & short term trend lines.

SHould the 200 DMA be broken through, there is another shorter-term bearish head & shoulders forming for IWM that has left shoulders in both May & June, which will make the $215.43 (Sellers, 1.89:1) & $209.55/share (Buyers, 1.9:1) areas to keep an eye on moving forward.

The table below may be beneficial for assessing the strength/weakness of support & resistance levels moving forward.

IWM has support at the $220.45 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.41:1), $219.93 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.19:1), $219.57 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.19:1) & $216.76/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.19:1) price levels, with resistance at the $222.40 (Volume Sentiment: Buyres, 2.41:1), $224.08 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.23:1), $224.60 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.23:1) & $225.37/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.23:1) price levels.

DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF declined -1.01%, having the worst weekly performance of the major four index ETFs.

Their RSI is coming back from overbought territory & is currently at 63.3, while their MACD is currently bullish, but looks set to break down bearishly in the coming days.

Volumes were -3.57% lower than the prior year’s average (3,107,500 vs. 3,222,560), making this weekly decline appear as if to be short-term profit taking.

Monday opened lower, and set the stage for the week’s declines tumbling to as low as $441.56, to recover modestly and close down on the day at $444/share on the week’s highest volume session.

Tuesday opened on a gap down that made an attempt higher that was quickly thwarted & the declines continued, although not as low as Monday’s low, as the two highest volume sessions of the week saw profits being taken.

Wednesday was an interesting session, opening on a gap higher, testing lower but staying above the 10 day moving average, and briefly breaking above the $445/share level to close the day as a dragonfly doji.

Thursday opened higher, dipped below Wednesday’s real body range (not too tough to do on a doji), before rallying higher, but much like IWM they closed well below the day’s high leaving a decent sized upper shadow.

Friday exposed the blue chip index’s weakness though, when the day opened on a gap down just below the 10 day moving average, tested lower, tested higher, only to close as a doji candle just below the 10 DMA’s resistance & below its opening price.

Its beginning to seem like folks are interested in taking more profits from the blue chip index & perhaps are even getting uneasy, especially heading into a big week like this one.

Same as SPY & QQQ, DIA’s upside case requires a breakout above their all-time high, which will need to see a lot of upside volume increases that remain consistent before the breakout looks sustainable.

It is worth noting too that they’re currently in a Seller dominated price zone, which will make that feat even more difficult.

The consolidation case involves oscillating around the 10 DMA & hoping that no downward momentum is gained by the filling in of any of the gaps <$440/share.

To the downside, should the $439.84/share level break down & the gaps of the past week & a half begin to fill there aren’t many nearby support levels for DIA to find stable footing on, which may cause accelerated declines.

This would also be compounded upon possibly due to the $428-431.99/share price zone being Seller dominated historically.

DIA has support at the $439.84 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.71:1), $430.27 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.43:1), $428.31 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.43:1) & $427.44/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 4.5:1) price levels, with resistance at the $443.73 (10 Day Moving Average, Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.24:1), $446.72 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 14:1), $447.00 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 14:1) & $448.86/share (All-Time High, Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*) price levels.

The Week Ahead

Monday the week starts off on a quiet note with no major economic data scheduled for release.

Fastenal reports earnings before Monday’s opening bell, followed by FB Financial & Simulations Plus after the session’s close.

Consumer Price Index, CPI Year-over-Year, Core CPI, Core CPI Year-over-Year & the Empire State Manufacturing Survey data are all released at 8:30 am on Tuesday, followed by Fed Governor Bowman speaking at 9:15 am, Fed Governor Barr speaking at 12:45 pm, Fed President Collins Speaking at 2:45 pm & Fed President Logan speaking at 6:45 pm.

JP Morgan Chase, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, Albertson’s, AngioDynamics, BlackRock, BNY Melon, Ericcson & State Street report earnings before Tuesday’s open, before Fulton Financial, Hancock Whitney, J.B. Hunt Transportation & Pinnacle Financial report after the session’s closing bell.

Wednesday brings us Producer Price Index, Core PPI, PPI Year-over-Year & Core PPI Year-over-Year data at 8:30 am, followed by Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization data at 9:15 am, Fed Governor Barr speaking at 10 am & The Fed Beige Book at 2 pm.

ASML, Bank of America, Commerce Bancshares, First Horizon, Goldman Sachs, Johnson & Johnson, M&T Bank, Morgan Stanley, PNC, Progressive & Prologis report earnings on Wednesday morning, with AAR, Alcoa, First Industrial Realty, Home Bancshares, Rexford Industrial Realty, SL Green Realty, Synovus, Triumph Financial & United Airlines all set to report after the closing bell.

Initial Jobless Claims, U.S. Retail Sales, Retail Sales minus Autos, Import Price Index, Import Price Index minus Fuel & the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey data at are released Thursday at 8:30 am, before Business Inventories, Home Builder Confidence Index data & Fed Governor Kugler speak at 10 am, Fed Governor Cook speaks at 1:30 pm & Fed Governor Waller speaks at 6:30 pm.

Abbot Labs, Cintas, Citizens Financial Group, Elevance Health, Fifth Third, Forestar, GE Aerospace, Insteel Industries, Manpower, Marsh McLennan, OFG Bancorp, PepsiCo, Snap-On, Texas Capital, Travelers, U.S. Bancorp & Webster Financial all report earnings before Thursday’s opening bell, followed by Netflix, Bank OZK, F.N.B., Interactive Brokers, Simmons First National & Western Alliance Bancorp after the closing bell.

Friday the week winds down with Housing Starts & Building Permits data at 8:30 am & Consumer Senitment (prelim) at 10 am & 3M, Ally Financial, American Express, Autoliv, Charles Schwab, Comerica, Huntington Banc, Regions Financial, SLB & Truist report earnings.

See you back here next week!

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM OR DIA AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***

Since our last Volume Sentiment Analysis major indexes have continued higher, with SPY & QQQ hitting new all-time highs, DIA approaching their all-time high & IWM has been battling to stay above its 200 day moving average this week.

Last night the VIX closed at 16.83, indicating an implied one day move of +/-1.06% & an implied one month move of +/-4.86% for the S&P 500, which appears oddly tame for a market whose primary gains came in the wake of a gap up on June 24.

Since that gap up there has been consistent upwards pressure, with SPY closing outside of its upper Bollinger Band almost every one of the past seven sessions, which is cause for concern & reason to view the situation as being overheated.

While volumes have been elevated (see last week’s market review note) compared to the year prior, the aforementioned gap up & the one from May 12, 2025 remain unfilled, mostly based on hope & optimism, but not on much in terms of actual facts.

Tariffs & foreign relations are still not entirely resolved & there are still companies announcing massive layoffs (MSFT announced 9,000 today), making these gains look more like the result of hopium than much else of substance.

This calls for a review of the volume sentiment at the price levels each of the major index ETFs have traded at in recent history to gain insight into how market participants have felt at each of these price levels.

This way, in the event of a retest there is some insight into how market participants may behave again.

Each section below contains a view of each index ETF’s chart (for a technical breakdown of each’s chart, see the link above for last week’s note), as well as a list of their current one year support & resistance levels with the volume sentiment noted beneath it on the table.

There is an additional table beneath this table with each price level’s sentiment, as well as a typed text version below that is able to be copied & pasted.

Note that “NULL, 0:0*” values denote areas that each name has traded at but with limited volume data to work with from a comparison standpoint in terms of creating a ratio of buyers:sellers (or vice versa) or is the outlier above the highest/lowest level with price data.

Also, prices that do have a ratio of Buyers:Sellers (Sellers:Buyers) where the denominator is 0 are denoted with an asterisk “*” as well.

In the written lists of the price levels & volume sentiments the price levels that contain support & resistance levels are marked in BOLD.

Recall that at price extremes such as the highs that we have recently hit there will tend to be skewed data due to the small sample size & factor that into how you interpret each price level’s reported sentiment.

This is intended to serve as an additional tool, similar to a barometer to use during your due diligence process & is not meant to replace doing your own research & is not financial advice.

Price Level:Volume Sentiment Analysis For SPY, The SPDR S&P 500 ETF

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF has pushed another all-time high today, two days before the July 4th holiday.

Given the speculative nature of the advances it is worth reviewing SPY’s support & resistance levels below, along with their historic Buyer:Seller (Seller:Buyer) ratio in order to aid in assessing how strong each is.

This is particularly important now as we approach the month of August, which historically is volatile for broader markets.

For a deeper dive into SPY’s near-term horizon take a look at the link above to this past week’s market review post.

$620 – NULL – 0:0*, +0.38% From Current Price Level

$615 – NULL – 0:0*, -0.43% From Current Price Level – Current Price Level*

$610 – NULL – 0:0*, -1.24% From Current Price Level

$605 – Buyers – 2.6:1, -2.05% From Current Price Level – 10 Day Moving Average*

$600 – Buyers – 7:1, -2.86% From Current Price Level

$595 – Sellers – 1.88:1, -3.67% From Current Price Level

$590 – Buyers – 1.91:1, -4.48% From Current Price Level

$585 – Buyers – 2.67:1, -5.29% From Current Price Level

$580 – Sellers – 2.81:1, -6.1% From Current Price Level – 50 Day Moving Average*

$575 – Buyers – 1.74:1, -6.91% From Current Price Level – 200 Day Moving Average*

$570 – Even – 1:1, -7.71% From Current Price Level

$565 – Buyers – 1.5:1, -8.52% From Current Price Level

$560 – Sellers – 1.07:1, -9.33% From Current Price Level

$555 – Buyers – 3.53:1, -10.14% From Current Price Level

$550 – Buyers – 1.24:1, -10.95% From Current Price Level

$545 – Buyers – 2.24:1, -11.76% From Current Price Level

$540 – Buyers – 1.67:1, -12.57% From Current Price Level

$535 – Sellers – 1.11:1, -13.38% From Current Price Level

$530 – Buyers – 1.77:1, -14.19% From Current Price Level

$525 – Buyers – 1.92:1, -15% From Current Price Level

$520 – Buyers – 1.33:1 -15.81% From Current Price Level

$515 – Buyers – 4:1, -16.62% From Current Price Level

$510 – Sellers – 1.41:1, -17.43% From Current Price Level

$505 – Buyers – 1.2:1, -18.24% From Current Price Level

$500 – Sellers – 2.05:1, -19.05% From Current Price Level

$496 – Buyers – 1.24:1, -19.7% From Current Price Level

$492 – Sellers – 7.83:1, -20.34% From Current Price Level

$488 – Buyers – 1.61:1, -20.99% From Current Price Level

$484 – Sellers – 1.2:1, -21.64% From Current Price Level

$480 – Buyers – 1.27:1, -22.29% From Current Price Level

$476 – Buyers – 2.33:1, -22.93% From Current Price Level

$472 – Buyers – 1.91:1, -23.58% From Current Price Level

$468 – Even – 1:1, -24.23% From Current Price Level

$464 – Buyers – 1.77:1, -24.88% From Current Price Level

$460 – Sellers – 1.52:1, -25.52% From Current Price Level

$456 – Buyers – 1.13:1, -26.17% From Current Price Level

$452 – Buyers – 0.7:0*, -26.82% From Current Price Level

$448 – Buyers – 2.1:0*, -27.47% From Current Price Level

$444 – Buyers – 1.42:1, -28.11% From Current Price Level

$440 – Buyers – 2.78:1, -28.76% From Current Price Level

$436 – Buyers – 1.86:1, -29.41% From Current Price Level

$432 – Sellers – 1.58:1, -30.06% From Current Price Level

$428 – Buyers – 1.22:1, -30.71% From Current Price Level

$424 – Buyers – 1.92:1, -31.35% From Current Price Level

$420 – Sellers – 1.68:1, -32% From Current Price Level

$416 – Buyers – 1.08:1, -32.65% From Current Price Level

$412 – Buyers – 1.31:1, -33.3% From Current Price Level

$408 – Sellers – 1.63:1, -33.94% From Current Price Level

$404 – Buyers – 1.95:1, -34.59% From Current Price Level

$400 – Buyers – 2.51:1, -35.24% From Current Price Level

$396 – Sellers – 1.8:1, -35.89% From Current Price Level

$392 – Sellers – 1.97:1, -36.53% From Current Price Level

$388 – Buyers – 5:1, -37.18% From Current Price Level

$384 – Buyers – 1.67:1, -37.83% From Current Price Level

$380 – Buyers – 1.39:1, -38.48% From Current Price Level

$376 – Sellers – 2.47:1, -39.12% From Current Price Level

$372 – Sellers – 2.12:1, -39.77% From Current Price Level

$368 – Sellers – 2:1, -40.42% From Current Price Level

$364 – Sellers – 1.28:1, -41.07% From Current Price Level

$360 – Buyers – 1.11:1, -41.71% From Current Price Level

$356 – Buyers – 1.43:1, -42.36% From Current Price Level

$352 – Buyers – 3.14:1, -43.01% From Current Price Level

$348 – Sellers – 1.9:0*, -43.66% From Current Price Level

$344 – Sellers – 2.7:0*, -44.31% From Current Price Level

$340 – Sellers – 0.8:0*, -44.95% From Current Price Level

$336 – NULL – 0:0*, -45.6% From Current Price Level

Price Level:Volume Sentiment For QQQ, The Invesco QQQ Trust

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF has just bounced down off of a new all-time high, but still remains moving in sync with SPY to a degree.

They’ve also seen an uptick in volume recently, however much of that is in response to recent earnings calls & continued AI speculation.

The data below can help map out how to navigate any potential corrections in the near-to-mid term for QQQ in terms of viewing how market participants have behaved historically.

$545 – NULL – 0:0*, -0.36% From Current Price Level – Current Price Level*

$540 – NULL – 0:0*, -1.28% From Current Price Level

$535 – Buyers – 3.67:1, -2.19% From Current Price Level – 10 Day Moving Average*

$530 – Buyers – 3:1, -3.11% From Current Price Level

$525 – Buyers – 2.67:1, -4.02% From Current Price Level

$520 – Buyers – 2.48:1, -4.93% From Current Price Level

$515 – Buyers – 1.1:1, -5.85% From Current Price Level

$510 – Sellers – 2.04:1, -6.76% From Current Price Level – 50 Day Moving Average*

$505 – Sellers – 1.42:1, -7.68% From Current Price Level

$500 – Buyers – 2:1, -8.59% From Current Price Level – 200 Day Moving Average*

$496 – Buyers – 1.17:1, -9.32% From Current Price Level

$492 – Buyers – 1.96:1, -10.05% From Current Price Level

$488 – Buyers – 2.59:1, -10.78% From Current Price Level

$484 – Buyers – 1.28:1, -11.52% From Current Price Level

$480 – Buyers – 1.71:1, -12.25% From Current Price Level

$476 – Sellers – 1.04:1, -12.98% From Current Price Level

$472 – Buyers – 2.04:1, -13.71% From Current Price Level

$468 – Sellers – 2.34:1, -14.44% From Current Price Level

$464 – Buyers – 6:1, -15.17% From Current Price Level

$460 – Buyers – 1.95:1, -15.9% From Current Price Level

$456 – Buyers – 1.25:1, -16.63% From Current Price Level

$452 – Buyers – 1.08:1, -17.37% From Current Price Level

$448 – Sellers – 1.16:1, -18.1% From Current Price Level

$444 – Sellers – 3.45:1, -18.83% From Current Price Level

$440 – Buyers – 1.7:1, -19.56% From Current Price Level

$436 – Buyers – 3.78:1, -20.29% From Current Price Level

$432 – Sellers – 3.42:1, -21.02% From Current Price Level

$428 – Buyers – 1.18:1, -21.75% From Current Price Level

$424 – Sellers – 1.36:1, -22.48% From Current Price Level

$420 – Sellers – 1.11:1, -23.22% From Current Price Level

$416 – Sellers – 1.3:0*, -23.95% From Current Price Level

$412 – Sellers – 2:1, -24.68% From Current Price Level

$408 – Sellers – 1.9:0*, -25.41% From Current Price Level

$404 – NULL – 0:0*, -26.14% From Current Price Level

Price Level:Volume Sentiment Analysis For IWM, The iShares Russell 2000 ETF

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF is having the strongest day of the four major index ETFs & is struggling to remain above its long-term trendline after months of performing below it.

Its volume has not been as strong as the other three majors recently, signaling that there is still uncertainty & market participants are not flocking into small-cap names.

There is also an interesting amount of Seller sentiment both in its support & resistance levels which is worth examining on the table below.

$244 – NULL – 0:0*, +11.92% From Current Price Level

$240 – Buyers – 0.4:0*, +10.09% From Current Price Level

$236 – Buyers – 1.9:0*, +8.25% From Current Price Level

$232 – Buyers – 1.18:1, +6.42% From Current Price Level

$228 – Buyers – 1.56:1, +4.58% From Current Price Level

$224 – Sellers – 1.23:1, +2.75% From Current Price Level

$220 – Buyers – 2.41:1, +0.91% From Current Price Level

$216 – Buyers – 1.19:1, -0.92% From Current Price Level – Current Price Level*

$212 – Sellers – 1.89:1, -2.76% From Current Price Level – 10 & 200 Day Moving Average**

$208 – Buyers – 1.9:1, -4.59% From Current Price Level

$204 – Buyers – 1.11:1, -6.43% From Current Price Level – 50 Day Moving Average*

$200 – Buyers – 1.44:1, -8.26% From Current Price Level

$198 – Sellers – 1.3:1, -9.18% From Current Price Level

$196 – Buyers – 1.33:1, -10.1% From Current Price Level

$194 – Buyers – 1.36:1, -11.01% From Current Price Level

$192 – Buyers – 1.24:1, -11.93% From Current Price Level

$190 – Sellers – 2.7:1, -12.85% From Current Price Level

$188 – Buyers – 1.19:1, -13.77% From Current Price Level

$186 – Buyers – 1.42:1, -14.68% From Current Price Level

$184 – Buyers – 1.83:1, -15.6% From Current Price Level

$182 – Buyers – 3.36:1, -16.52% From Current Price Level

$180 – Sellers – 1.8:1, -17.43% From Current Price Level

$178 – Sellers – 2.2:1, -18.35% From Current Price Level

$176 – Buyers – 1.27:1, -19.27% From Current Price Level

$174 – Buyers – 1.68:1, -20.19% From Current Price Level

$172 – Buyers – 1.18:1, -21.1% From Current Price Level

$170 – Buyers – 1.24:1, -22.02% From Current Price Level

$168 – Sellers – 1.39:1, -22.94% From Current Price Level

$166 – Sellers – 1.27:1, -23.86% From Current Price Level

$164 – Sellers – 1.78:1, -24.77% From Current Price Level

$162 – Even – 1:1, -25.69% From Current Price Level

$160 – Sellers – 1.07:1, -26.61% From Current Price Level

$158 – NULL – 0:0*, -27.53% From Current Price Level

Price Level:Volume Sentiment Analysis For DIA, The SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF

DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF has continued to climb in recent weeks as market participants flock to & hold the blue chip stocks.

Nearing its all-time high, the support sentiment below is now something that is worth examining when profits are taken off of the table in the near-term.

$448 – NULL – 0:0*, +0.7% From Current Price Level

$444 – Buyers – 14:1, -0.2% From Current Price Level

$440 – Sellers – 1.24:1, -1.1% From Current Price Level – Current Price Level*

$436 – Buyers – 1.71:1, -2% From Current Price Level

$432 – Buyers – 2.5:1, -2.9% From Current Price Level

$428 – Sellers – 1.43:1, -3.8% From Current Price Level

$424 – Buyers – 4.5:1, -4.7% From Current Price Level – 10 Day Moving Average**

$420 – Buyers – 1.08:1, -5.59% From Current Price Level – 200 Day Moving Average*

$416 – Sellers – 1.03:1, -6.49% From Current Price Level – 50 Day Moving Average*

$412 – Sellers – 1.39:1, -7.39% From Current Price Level

$408 – Buyers – 1.2:1, -8.29% From Current Price Level

$404 – Buyers – 4.14:1, -9.19% From Current Price Level

$400 – Buyers – 1.75:1, -10.09% From Current Price Level

$396 – Sellers – 1.09:1, -10.99% From Current Price Level

$392 – Buyers – 2.22:1, -11.89% From Current Price Level

$388 – Buyers – 2.64:1, -12.79% From Current Price Level

$384 – Buyers – 1.04:1, -13.69% From Current Price Level

$380 – Sellers – 1.04:1, -14.59% From Current Price Level

$376 – Sellers – 1.42:1, -15.48% From Current Price Level

$372 – Sellers – 1.04:1, -16.38% From Current Price Level

$368 – Buyers – 1.67:1, -17.28% From Current Price Level

$364 – Buyers – 1.84:1, -18.18% From Current Price Level

$360 – Buyers – 2.67:1, -19.08% From Current Price Level

$356 – Buyers – 0.2:0*, -19.98% From Current Price Level

$352 – Buyers – 1.71:1, -20.88% From Current Price Level

$348 – Sellers – 1.67:1, -21.78% From Current Price Level

$344 – Buyers – 0.8:0*, -22.68% From Current Price Level

$340 – Buyers – 1.52:1, -23.58% From Current Price Level

$336 – Buyers – 1.5:1, -24.48% From Current Price Level

$332 – Buyers – 1.94:1, -25.37% From Current Price Level

$328 – Buyers – 2.13:1, -26.27% From Current Price Level

$324 – Buyers – 1.07:1, -27.17% From Current Price Level

$320 – Buyers – 1.33:1, -28.07% From Current Price Level

$316 – Even – 1:1, -28.97% From Current Price Level

$312 – Buyers – 1.1:1, -29.87% From Current Price Level

$308 – Buyers – 1.02:1, -30.77% From Current Price Level

$304 – Sellers – 3.27:1, -31.67% From Current Price Level

$300 – Buyers – 1.74:1, -32.57% From Current Price Level

$296 – Sellers – 1.57:1, -33.47% From Current Price Level

$292 – Sellers – 2.8:1, -34.37% From Current Price Level

$288 – Sellers – 1.26:1, -35.26% From Current Price Level

$284 – Even – 1:1, -36.16% From Current Price Level

$280 – Sellers – 2:1, -37.06% From Current Price Level

$276 – Sellers – 6.67:1, -37.96% From Current Price Level

$272 – NULL – 0:0*, -38.86% From Current Price Level

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM OR DIA AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***