Category: Market News, Research & Commentary

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF gained +1.46% this past week, lagging the performance of the NASDAQ names.

Their RSI is neutral & recent trading volumes have been above average compared to the year prior.

SPY’s MACD is showing signs of slowing down, with signals of a downtrend from Tuesday on last week.

SPY has support at the $392.02 (10 day moving average), $389.10 (200 day moving average), $388.28 & $387.13/share price levels, with overhead resistance at the $398.27, $399.14 (50 day moving average), $401.76 & $402.49/share price levels.

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF closed +1.97% higher this week vs. last, outperforming the large caps of the S&P 500, as well as the smaller cap Russell 2000 stocks for the week.

As a result, their RSI is on the more overbought end of neutral (62) & their MACD is bullish, but beginning to show signs of weakness as it rolls over & recent trading volumes have been about average compared to the year prior.

QQQ has support at the $309.30, $304.22, $304.00 (10 day moving average) & $303.53/share price levels, with resistance at the $312.16, $313.19, $315.25 & $327.77/share price levels.

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF gained +0.69% this past week, as small cap names did not enjoy the same strength as their S&P 500 & NASDAQ peers.

Their RSI is on the oversold end of neutral at 38, as their MACD is beginning to righten after their freefall at the beginning of March 2023.

Trading volumes for IWM have been very high this past month, which should advice market participants to be careful.

IWM has support at the $169.71, $169.05, $166.80 & $166.21/share price levels, with resistance at the $172.67, $172.93 (10 day moving average),$174.63 & $174.71/share.

Let’s dive into some of the best & worst performing sectors & geo-locations based on this week’s technical rating data results!

Semiconductors (SMH), U.S. Technology (IYW), Silver Miners (SIL) & Japan Small Cap Dividends (DFJ) Are All Bullishly Leading The Markets

SMH, the VanEck Vectors Semiconductors ETF has lost -6.73% over the past year, but has reclaimed 54.23% (ex-distributions) since their 52 week low in October of 2022.

Their RSI is approaching the overbought end of neutral at 59, with recent trading volumes being slightly below average compared to the year prior.

Their MACD is beginning to signal that there may be some cooling off to come in the near-term, as it turns bearish, and their 0.94% distribution for long-term holders will not provide much cushion for investors.

The presence of both a shooting star & hanging man candlestick in last week’s chart signals that unless you’re using an options strategy for protection to wait & see how it behaves at its support levels.

SMH has support at the $250.42, $249.79 (10 day moving average), $249.56 & $246.32/share price levels, with resistance overhead at the $255.64, $261.92 & $267.30/share price levels.

IYW, the iShares U.S. Technology ETF has lost -12.5% over the past year, but has rebounded +29.98% (ex-distributions) since their 52 week low in October of 2022.

Their RSI is approaching overbought, and recent volumes have been above average compared to the year prior.

Their MACD is beginning to show signs of waning enthusiasm & their distribution only offers a modest 0.49% cushion for protection from losses for long-term holders, suggesting that in the near-term this is a better idea for an options trade than a long-term investment.

IYW has support at the $89.24, $88.25, $87.72 (10 day moving average), $87.39 & $87.22/share price level, with resistance at the $90.27, $91.24, $94.25 & $94.65/share price levels.

SIL, the Global X Silver Miners ETF has lost 20.6% over the past year, but has bounced back +38.77% (ex-distributions) from their lowest point of September 2022.

Their RSI is on the overbought end of neutral, with recent trading volumes being average compared to the year prior.

Their MACD is beginning to look exhausted, and their distribution only provides 0.21% of an annualized cushion, signaling that it is best to see how Friday’s doji candlestick plays out & whether a morning star pattern is formed or not (signaling a bearish reversal).

While waiting, trading options can generate profits that can be parlayed into buying long-shares once things become more clear.

SIL has support at the $28.92, $28.59 (50 day moving average), $28.45 (10 day moving average) & $27.81/share price level, with resistance levels at $29.78, $29.79, $31.38 & $31.90/share.

DFJ, the WisdomTree Japan SmallCap Dividend Fund has gained +0.99% over the past year, has also climbed +21.38% (ex-distributions) since its low in October 2022.

Their MACD looks poised for a bullish crossover in the near-term, although their past couple of candlesticks will need to maintain their momentum & avoid filling the gap from last Thursday.

Recent trading volumes have been above average compared to the year prior & their RSI is neutral.

DFJ pays a 2.54% annual distribution, which will shield long-term holders from some losses in volatile environments & they have options which can be used for additional downside protection.

DFJ has support at $64.61 (50 day moving average), $64.45 (10 day moving average), $63.55 & $63.39/share & overhead resistance at the $66.05 & $66.68/share price levels from the past 52 weeks.

World Equities (URTH), Risk Parity (RPAR), Pharmaceuticals (PPH) & Sweden (EWD) Are All Bearishly Lagging The Markets

URTH, the iShares MSCI World ETF has lost -10.15% over the past year, falling -12.09% (ex-distributions) from their 52 week high in April 2022.

Recent trading volumes for URTH have been below average & their RSI is neutral at 51.

Their MACD is slightly bullish, but last week’s candlesticks signal that there is still a downtrend.

Long-term holders will receive 1.61% of distribution as a cushion from losses, but unless trading options, it would be wisest to wait for URTH to get on more stable footing before investing.

URTH has support at the $112.56 (10 day moving average), $110.49 (200 day moving average), $110.18 & $109.48/share price levels, with resistance at the $113.62, $114.33, $115.12 (50 day moving average) & $115.20/share price levels.

RPAR, the RPAR Risk Parity ETF has dropped -15.48% over the past year, losing -16.03% (ex-distributions) from their 52 week high achieved in March 2022.

Their recent trading volumes have been below average & their RSI is neutral, signaling that investors are not certain as to where they value RPAR’s shares.

Their MACD looks to be losing speed, which may bring near-term entry points for investors who don’t mind losing beyond their 3.85% annual distribution.

For those that do mind, they are optionable, which can be used to generate profits while waiting for a more appropriate entry-point.

RPAR has support at $19.25 (10 day moving average), $19.05, $19.01 & $18.81/share, with resistance at $19.42, $19.45 (50 day moving average), $19.54 & $19.61/share.

PPH, the VanEck Vectors Pharmaceutical ETF has lost -3.15% over the past year, with a -9.41% (ex-distributions) loss since their high in April 2022.

Their RSI is approaching neutral again & recent trading volumes have been far below average compared to the year prior.

PPH has a 1.59% distribution for long-term share holders, and has options that can be traded while waiting for a more secure entry point.

PPH has support at the $74.64 (10 day moving average), $74.54 (200 day moving average), $73.64 & $73.40/share price levels, with resistance at the $76.19, $76.89 (50 day moving average), $77.59 & $78.19/share price levels.

EWD, the iShares MSCI Sweden ETF has lost -11.71% of its value over the past year, shedding -14.93% since its high of March 2022.

Friday’s gap down will prove interesting, as their MACD was on the verge of crossing over bullishly, but with low trading volumes it is hard to gauge investor sentiment on the move.

Their RSI is on the oversold end of neutral at 43, and there looks to be more near-term losses on the horizon, which can present entry point opportunities for long-term investors.

However, unless their 3.57% distribution is the only protection from loss that you require, it would be wisest to wait & see how they behave at their support levels.

EWD has support at the $32.47, $32.13 (200 day moving average), $31.97 & $31.96/share price levels, with resistance overhead at the $33.68 (10 day moving average), $34.04, $34.05 & $34.71/share price levels.

Tying It All Together

This week we have lots of data coming in, with the exception of Monday which will be a quiet day minus Fed. Governor Jefferson speaking at 5pm.

Tuesday will be busy, with Advanced U.S. Trade Balance In Goods, Advance Retail Inventories & Advance Wholesale inventories at 8:30 am, followed by the S&P Case-Schiller Home Price Index & FHFA Home Index Price data at 9 am & U.S. Consumer Confidence & Fed Gov. Barr testifying before the Senate about banks at 10 am.

Wednesday brings us Pending US Home Sales data at 10 am, which will also be when Barr testifies to the House on banks.

Thursday features GDP (2nd revision), Initial Jobless Claims & Continuing Jobless Claims at 8:30 am, with Boston Fed President Collins speaking at 12:45 pm.

Friday too will be busy, with 8:30 am having a line up featuring Person Income (nominal), Personal Spending (nominal), PCE Index, Core PCE Index, PCE (Y-o-Y) & Core PCE (Y-o-Y) at 8:30, followed by the Chicago Business Barometer at 9:45 am.

At 10 am Friday the UMich Consumer Sentiment (final) data will be released & at 3:05 the NY Fed President Williams speaks, as well as Fed Governors Cook & Waller speaking in the evening (5:45 & 10 pm).

See you back here next week!

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SMH, IYW, SIL, DFJ, URTH, RPAR, PPH, or EWD AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF gained +1.06% over the past week, as a week dominated by bank crisis headlines & data points provided a volatile trading week for stocks.

The individual candlesticks of the week look as though the market spent much of the week expecting a dovish Federal Reserve announcement this upcoming week, only to be brought back to reality Friday where Thursday’s high’s were not touched.

SPY’s RSI is between neutral & oversold at 44, and all eyes will be on their MACD, as it has flattened out & looks ready to cross over bullishly next week, after a week of heavier than average trading volume.

SPY has support at the $389.38 (200 day moving average),$388.28, $387.13 & $383.60/share price levels, which will be important to watch this week.

Their nearest resistance levels are at the $391.81 (10 day moving average), $398.27, $398.35 (50 day moving average) & $401.76/share price levels.

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF that tracks that NASDAQ gained +6.26%, as traders & investors adopted a more dovish Federal reserve sentiment which would benefit the technology heavy NASDAQ, while others piled in to add additional momentum leading to its outperformance of the other index ETFs this week.

While Friday’s candlestick’s shadow went above Thursday’s high, it does not show much strength & conviction behind the week’s movement.

QQQ’s RSI is between neutral & overbought at 59, and their MACD bullishly crossed over during the past week, trading on above average volume compared to the year prior.

QQQ has support at $304.69, $304, $297.45 (10 day moving average) & $296.17/share, with resistance at $309.78, $312.64 & $313.68/share.

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF lost -2.81%, as small caps were outperformed by larger cap stocks.

Their trading volumes were higher than average compared to the year prior, and their RSI is about to slip into oversold territory at 31 as their MACD is in freefall downward.

IWM’s support levels of $170.38, $170.34, $169.67 & $167.42 will be important to watch this upcoming week & their resistance levels overhead are the $173.31, $175.27, $175.78 & $176.48/share price levels.

Let’s dive into some of the top & bottom performing sectors & geo-locations based on this week’s technical rating data!

Turkey (TUR), Technology (XLK), Video Games & eSports (ESPO) & Spain (EWP) Are All Bullishly Leading The Market

TUR, the iShares MSCI Turkey ETF has gained +85.74% over the past year (ex-distributions), and is +98.25% from their low in July 2022.

Long-term holders receive an extra 2.08% as additional distribution yield if they hold the ETF for one year.

Recent trading volumes for TUR have been volatile, after experiencing two gap ups in February 2023 & fluttering around in consolidation for most of the time since & their RSI is neutral.

Their recent bearish MACD crossover signals that there will be further consolidation in the near-term, which provides opportunities for long-entries or for options traders to profit from volatility in their price.

TUR has support at the $34.54, $34.49 (50 day moving average), $34.21 & $32.11/share price levels, with overhead resistance at the $36.15, $37.08, $37.17 & $38.17 (52 week high)/share price levels.

XLK, the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund ETF has lost -4.33% from one year ago, but has rebounded +27.35% since their low of October 2022 (ex-distributions).

Their recent trading volumes have been above average compared to the year prior, but their RSI is approaching overbought territory as it draws nearer to 70.

XLK recently had a bullish MACD crossover, but investors & traders would be wise to wait to see how they react to the $144.59 resistance level before entering a position, as their 0.9% annual distribution yield does not provide much cushion for support.

There are opportunities for options traders to profit from the price movements in XLK during this time.

XLK has support at the $142.72, $142.30, $139.71 (10 day moving average) & $138.93/share price levels, with resistance at the $144.59, $147.96 & $151.05/share levels.

ESPO, the VanEck Vectors Video Gaming & eSports ETF has lost -13.18% over the past year, but has bounced back +30.82% since their low in October 2022 (ex-distributions).

Their RSI is neutral & recent trading volumes have been below average compared to the previous year, but they have had a bullish MACD crossover within the past week.

With a 1.13% distribution yield as a cushion, long positions may be best to wait on establishing until we see how they react to their resistance levels, but options traders have opportunities for near-term profits.

ESPO has support at the $49.38, $49.08, $49.00 & $48.30 (10 day moving average) price levels, with resistance overhead at the $50.32, $51.12, $51.32 & $52.53/share price levels.

EWP, the iShares MSCI Spain Capped ETF has gained +5.96% over the past year, gaining +35.83% from their low in October 2022 (ex-distributions).

After a gap down earlier this past week their RSI is dove down to nearing oversold territory (<30 level) & their MACD has turned bearish, all on lighter than average trading volumes.

EWP offers a 2.88% distribution yield for long-term holders annually, but unless trading options, it appears best to wait & see how they behave around their other, older gaps & support levels in wake of this recent decline.

EWP has support at the $25.77, $25.65, $25.50 & $24.68/share price levels, with resistance at the $26.85 (50 day moving average), $26.89 (10 day moving average) & $27.97/share price levels.

Real Estate (DRN), Cannabis (POTX), Energy (ERX) & South Korea (KORU) Are All Bearishly Lagging The Market

DRN, the Direxion Daily Real Estate Bull 3x Shares ETF has dropped -61.31% over the past year, falling -67.97% from their 52 week high in April of 2022 (ex-distributions).

Their recent trading volumes have been above average & their RSI is approaching oversold territory.

DRN’s MACD is beginning to flatten out due to a week of consolidation after their most recent move downwards, and they offer a 3.01% distribution yield for long-term holders.

However, some addition protection from put options may be wise to have in the near-term.

DRN has support at the $8.50, $8.49, $7.83 & $7.33/share price levels, with overhead resistance at the $9.09, $9.23, $9.31 & $9.55 (10 day moving average).

POTX, the Global X Cannabis ETF has lost -67.26% over the past year, including a -74.57% from their 52 week high in March of 2022 (ex-distributions).

They’ve seen a steady decline over the past year & as a result their RSI is in oversold territory.

Their MACD has also been in a smooth downtrend since the beginning of February, with trading volumes being relatively average compared to the year prior.

POTX only has support at the $9.00 price level for the past 52 weeks, and while they offer a 3.93% distribution yield as a cushion to long-term holders of 1 year+, it would be wisest to trade options until there is more price stability, using the profits to enter a long-term position once they’ve stabilized more.

POTX has resistance at the $9.72 (10 day moving average), $10.43, $11.34 (50 day moving average) & $11.65/share price levels.

ERX, the Direxion Daily Energy Bull 2x Shares ETF has lost -0.46% over the past year, dropping -36.55% from their 52 week high in June 2022 (ex-distributions).

A decline throughout March 2023 has led their RSI into oversold territory, with their MACD also being in a downtrend.

Recent trading volumes have been below average, signaling that there is still uncertainty around their value & there will likely be more near-term volatility to come.

ERX’s 2.98% distribution yield provides some downside protection for long-term holders, but given where their support levels are in relation to gaps that need to be filled on the way down, the best approach to this name in the near-term is using an options strategy.

ERX has support at the $48.21, $47.96, $46.37 & $44.36/share price levels, with resistance at the $51.16, $51.41, $51.80& $53.62/share price levels.

KORU, the Direxion Daily South Korea Bull 3x Shares ETF has lost -56.47% over the past year, dropping -59.73% since their 52 week high in March of 2022.

They’ve been declining for the better part of Q1 2023 on higher than average volumes compared to the year prior.

KORU’s RSI is midway between neutral & oversold, with their MACD about to make a bullish crossover, but resistance overhead signals that this may not be a sustainable upside move.

With limited cushion from their 0.47% distribution yield, waiting for a more solid entry time or using options to navigate the volatility would be the best strategy here.

KORU has support at the $7.70 (also their price level), $7.57, $7.50, $7.39 & $7.17/share price levels, with resistance at the $7.86, $7.89 (10 day moving average), $8.00 & $8.08/share price levels.

Tying It All Together

The week ahead promises to be interesting, mostly due to the Federal Reserve’s Interest-Rate Decision on Wednesday at 2pm.

Monday has no major data points to be reported, followed by Existing Home Sales at 10 am on Tuesday.

Wednesday we also get Fed Chairman Powell’s Press Conference after the interest-rate decision announcement.

Thursday we will head U.S. Current Account Data, as well as Initial Jobless Claims & Continuing Jobless Claims at 8:30 am, followed by New Home Sales data at 10 am.

Friday wraps up the week with Durable Goods data at 8:30 am, as well as S&P Global Flash U.S. Services & Manufacturing PMI data at 9:45 am.

We’ll still be dealing with the fallout of the SVB collapse, as well as how it is impacting other smaller banks, as well as getting more insight into the Credit Suisse situation.

It all promises to be nothing short of interesting.

See you back here next week!

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM, TUR, XLK, ESPO, EWP, DRN, POTX, ERX or KORU AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***

Last week was a volatile week for stocks across the board, fueled mostly by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell’s testimonies to the House & Senate, as well as employment data & the fallout of Silicon Valley Bank’s failure news.

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF lost -4.52% over the past week, starting the week off with a shooting star candlestick on Monday to initiate the fall.

Their RSI is nearing oversold & their MACD is looking very bearish, but Friday’s volume spike that eclipses the rest of the year’s volume readings signals more near-term unrest for investors.

Previously in the year, the nearest volume readings for SPY came in during the large declines of May & June 2022.

Investors & traders need exercise caution in SPY in the near-term, with their current nearest support levels being $385.06, $380.18 & $377.73, leaving room open for new gap downs this week.

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF that tracks the NASDAQ dropped -3.71% last week, faring slightly better than SPY, but still signaling the same technical weakness over the course of the week.

Given the NASDAQ is more susceptible to tremors caused by interest rates than SPY, they will likely see more outflows in the coming week as we get the CPI & PPI data coming in.

Their RSI is a bit closer to neutral, but their MACD is also showing bearishness to continue on the horizon.

With the difference between QQQ & SPY’s RSI, there is more room for QQQ to fall before triggering a technical oversold signal, which may be a factor in this coming week.

QQQ has support at the $288.37, $283.92, $283.50 & $283.20/share price levels, with resistance at the $289.32 (200 day moving average), $289.57 (50 day moving average), $294.74 & $295.51/share price levels.

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF fell -8% this past week, showing that smaller cap names were hurt the worst by the week’s volatility.

Their volume was much more in line with the larger cap stocks SPY’ compared to the NASDAQ.

However, their RSI is already in oversold territory & their MACD is heading in bearish decline.

IWM has support at the $175.78 $175.36, $175.27 & $173.31/share price levels, with the next resistance points falling at $180.45 (200 day moving average), $180.59, $184.75 & $186.64/share.

Let’s dive into some of this week’s top & bottom performing sectors & geo-locations based on our technical data ratings for ETFs!

Semiconductors (USD), European Hedged Equity (HEDJ), U.S. Infrastructure Development (PAVE) & Precious Metals (DBP) Are All Bullishly Leading The Market

USD, the ProShares Ultra Semiconductors ETF has dropped -33.4% over the past year, but has recovered +98.5% since the lows of October 2022 (excluding distributions collected from their modest 0.21% yield for long-term holders).

Recent volumes have been below average compared to the year prior, their RSI is neutral & their MACD is slightly bearish after recent consolidation over the last two months.

Their distribution yield doesn’t provide much cushion at 0.21%, making options the most appealing way to play defensively in USD.

USD has support at the $22.93, $22.52, $22.24 & $22.18/share price level (with a zone of decent support in the $21-22 range), with overhead resistance at the $23.79 (10 day moving average), $25.45, $25.59 & $25.75/share price levels.

HEDJ, the WisdomTree Europe Hedged Equity Fund ETF has gained +15.61% over the past year, while climbing +29.3% (ex-distributions) since their lows in September of 2022.

They have been on a major uptrend since October 2022, with their recent trading volume being about average compared to the year prior’s volatile volumes.

HEDJ’s RSI is neutral, but their MACD is showing bearish signals in the near-term.

Their only resistance levels from the past 52 weeks are the $80.93 (10 day moving average) & $82.26/share price level, and their support levels are at $77.69, $74.12 & $74.09, signaling that there is a lot of room for HEDJ to cool off in the near-term.

With so little nearby support in the last 52 weeks, this appears to be a name to wait until it has cooled off a bit before investing, as their 2.49% annual distribution can only provide so much protection.

Traders can capitalize on their consolidation & new range establishing using put options, which the profits from can in turn be applied to purchasing additional long-term shares.

PAVE, the Global X U.S. Infrastructure Development ETF has gained +4.52% over the past year, gaining +27.5% since their lows of June 2022 (ex-distributions).

Their past month’s trading volumes have been above average compared to the year prior, but their RSI is approaching oversold after falling 4 of the last 5 sessions.

PAVE’s MACD is signaling more near-term weakness, and their distribution yield provides little cushion at 0.79% annually.

PAVE has support at the $27.66, $27.13 & $27.08 price levels, with resistance at $28.31, $28.37, $28.50 (50 day moving average) & $28.53/share.

This looks to be another situation where it is best to watch how the ETF interacts with their support/resistance levels & use options as protection in the meantime.

DBP, the Invesco DB Precious Metals Fund ETF has lost -10.4% over the past year, but has climbed +13.9% (ex-distributions) since their low of September 2022.

Their RSI is neutral & their MACD is bullish, leaving investors & traders to wait & see how they behave around their recent gaps of the last few weeks.

While DBP is listed as optionable, there is no open interest in the next two month’s strike prices, leaves traders & investors with limited protection from loss as their distribution level for the year is only 0.46%.

DBP has support at the $47.23, $46.96 & $46.92/share price levels, with resistance at $47.44, $47.76 & $48.12/share.

Traders & investors should see how they behave at these price levels before buying more or entering into a new position in DBP to minimize potential losses.

Regional Banks (DPST), Lithium (LIT), Oil & Gas (DIG) & U.S. Healthcare Providers (IHF) Are All Bearishly Lagging The Market

DPST, the Direxion Daily Regional Banks Bull 3x Shares ETF has lost -70.5% of its value since one year ago, falling -73.6% from their high in March 2022 (ex-distributions).

Their RSI is oversold & MACD is also highly bearish after they stepped off of a price cliff in the beginning of March.

Their above average volume recently has coincided with these losses, and in the last 52 weeks they have no support, as the low of Friday’s candlestick at $11.43 is the lowest level they’ve been at in that time period.

They have resistance at $19.99, $20.60 & $21.07.

While their 2.56% distribution will provide some form of cushion for long-term holders of the ETF, this is one to tread lightly around until it has consolidated into more of a range & behaves less volatily.

LIT, the Global X Lithium ETF has lost -14.14% over the past year, falling -25.6% (ex-distributions) from their peak in August 2022.

Their RSI is also oversold & their MACD is in a significant downtrend, with recent trading volumes being below average.

With only a 0.95% distribution yield, they do not offer much protection to the downside & their only support level of the past 52 weeks is at $57.54.

LIT has resistance at the $61.07, $62.32, $62.37 & $62.45/share price levels.

Unless trading options, this also looks like one to wait before making any moves into until after it has consolidated more.

DIG, the ProShares Ultra Oil & Gas ETF has gained +7.85% over the past year, but has fallen -26.33% (ex-distributions) from their high of November 2022.

Their MACD recently had a bearish crossover, and their RSI is approaching oversold territory, on weaker than average trading volumes compared to the year prior.

Their next levels of support are at the $35.71, $35.38 & $34.20/share price levels, with resistance at the $37.24, $37.28, $37.86 & $37.87/share price levels.

While their annual distribution provides long-term holders with a 1.53% cushion, it does not look safe enough to be making moves on DIG from a long-term perspective, but options can be traded for protection.

IHF, the iShares U.S. Healthcare Providers ETF has fallen -11.72% over the past year, losing -17.83% (ex-distributions) from their high of April 2022.

Their RSI is heavily oversold & their MACD has been in a bearish decline for the last 3 weeks as the ETF suffered.

Recent trading volumes have been above average, but their past year’s volumes are very volatile, much like the share price.

IHF’s only support from the past 52 weeks is at $236.05, with resistance at $248.10, $249.50 & $252.40.

They too should be approached with caution until they have consolidated more & established a more stable price range, but options traders can find profits from the chaos of their near-term volatility.

Tying It All Together & The Week Ahead

It goes without saying that Silicon Valley Bank will be a popular headline generator this upcoming week, especially as Monday has no major economic data to report on.

We have yet to see all of the fallout from their failure & what other dangers are lurking in the coal mine that this particular canary is warning us of.

Tuesday will bring their (former) executives some relief, as all eyes will shift towards the CPI data readings at 8:30 am (CPI, Core CPI & each’s Y-o-Y change), as well as the NFIB Optimism Index.

Wednesday we will hear data on Retail Sales, Retail sales ex-auto’s, the Empire State Manufacturing data, Business Inventories & Homebuilders Survey.

Of course, most eyes Wednesday will be more interested on the PPI data that will also be released at 8:30 am that morning.

Thursday sees us receiving data on Initial Jobless Claims, Import Price Index, Housing Starts, Building Permits & the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing data, all at 8:30 am.

Friday rounds the week off with Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization, U.S. Leading Economic Index & Consumer Sentiment data.

While I’m not an economist, the candlesticks that we saw all of last week signal more near-term volatility to come.

Monday’s shooting star candlestick on SPY & QQQ, paired with IWM’s bearish candle paired with the following day’s relative freefall spell more near-term volatility to come.

See you back here next week!

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OF OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM, USD, HEDJ, PAVE, DBP, DPST, LIT, DIG or IHF AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***

I am still on vacation, so this week’s post will be more brief than previous weeks’ posts.

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF gained +1.97% this past week, mostly due to a gap up on Friday’s session.

Their RSI is still neutral at ~53 & their MACD is beginning to curl in a bullish direction & recent volumes have improved, but remains about average.

It will be interesting to see how they hold up with support at $399.79, $399.27 (10 day moving average), $397.59 (50 day moving average), but it looks to be a volatile week ahead.

SPY has a lot of resistance in the $408 price-level zone ($408.17, $408.49 & $408.61), before jumping to $412.05.

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ET gained +2.68% this past week, gapping up stronger than SPY did on Friday’s session, although their volume has been more average than SPY’s recently.

Their next level of resistance is $304.69, followed by $309.78, $312.64 & $313.68.

QQQ’s support will likely be tested in the coming days, with the levels to watch being $296.17, $295.51, $295.01 (10 day moving average), before falling to $289.65.

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF gained +2.13% this week, with similarly “near-average” volume compared to the rest of the year prior.

Like SPY & QQQ, Friday’s gap up moved IWM’s RSI to look bullish & their MACD is beginning to signal an attempt at a bullish crossover.

Let’s dive into the best & worst performing sectors/geo-locations!

Aerospace & Defense (DFEN), Industrials (DUSL), Germany (EWG) & Small Caps (UAA) Are All Bullishly Leading The Market

DFEN, the Direxion Daily Aerospace & Defense Bull 3x Shares ETF has gained 4.44% over the past year, but has rebounded 99.29% from its low in September of 2022.

While their distribution will not provide much cushion at 0.40% annually (0.1% payout/quarter), they have support at $21.74 (10 day moving average), $21.47, $21.41 & $21.39.

Given where they are at currently it would be wisest to wait on any moves or use options strategies around these levels, as their next overhead resistance level is $22.70, followed by $22.80 & $23.14.

DUSL, the Direxion Daily Industrials Bull 3x Shares ETF has lost 3% this past year (excluding dividends, which still only provide a 0.58% cushion for loss), but has gained 83.12% from the lows of October 2022.

Their next resistance levels are $36.55, $36.57 & $36.73.

Support levels are a bit lower, signaling investors who aren’t trading options around DUSL should wait until they test these levels again before entering.

Support levels currently are $35.00, $34.34 & $34.31 (10 day moving average), and there is a consolidation around the area of the 10 & 50 day moving averages.

EWG, the iShares MSCI Germany ETF has gained 10% (in addition to their 2.87% distribution for long-term holders), while gaining 44.47% since their low in September 2022.

Long-term holders will be rewarded the 2.85% in distributions, but this is currently too overheated for an entry, with overhead resistance at $28.91, $28.95 & $29.86.

Unless using options, it is best for long-only readers to wait to see how EWG performs against their support levels of $27.57 (10 day moving average), $27.45 & $27.24 (50 day moving average) before making an entry.

SAA, the ProShares Ultra Small Cap 600 ETF has lost -11.18% over the past year (with minimal cushion from their 0.39% distribution), but they have recovered +39.37% from their lows in September 2022.

While they’ve begun to fill their most recent gap down, this one also is worth taking a wait & see approach for entering a position.

With resistance at $25.86, $26.16, $26.17 & $26.49, it will be important to see how they behave at their support levels of $24.27, $24.23 & $24.21.

Colombia (GXG), Mortgage Real Estate (REM), U.S. Telecommunications (IYZ) & Clean Energy (PBW) Are All Bearishly Lagging The Market

GXG, the Global X MSCI Colombia ETF has lost 32.13% (not including their 12.75% distribution paid to long-term holders), and is -38.73% from their high in April 2022.

While their last week went well, resistance tests at $19.87, $19.91 & $20.11 will be imperative to see how much upward momentum they can gain, while they have support at $18.95, $18.82 & $18.79/share.

REM, the iShares Mortgage Real Estate Capped ETF has lost -17% over the past year (although their distribution of 10.58% to long-term holders helped cushion the fall), and has lost -22% since their high in March 2022.

They have pivoted off of the low last Wednesday to recover for 2 days, but need to face tests at $24.49, $24.63 & $24.71 (50 day moving average) & have a long ways down to go upon failing, as support levels are $24.14 (10 day moving average), $23.20 & $23.11.

IYZ, the iShares U.S. Telecommunications ETF has lost 20.94% over the past year (excluding the 2.49% distribution they pay to long-term holders), down -23.23% from their high in March 2022.

The gaps up of last week don’t look strong here, with overhead resistance at $23.22, $23.23, $23.50 (50 day moving average) & $23.61.

Support levels of $23.07 (10 day moving average), $22.50 & $22.29 are going to be what to watch for to see how they hold up upon retest.

PBW, the Invesco Wilder Hill Clean Energy ETF has lost -20.48% over the past year (excluding their 3.69% distribution paid to long-term holders), losing -34.78% since their high in April 2022.

Their next tests of resistance will be at the $45.17, $45.66 & $46.31/share level.

Support levels to watch are at $43.89, $43.67 & $43.47.

Tying It All Together

Monday will bring us Factory Orders data, followed by Fed Chairman Powell testifying to the Senate Tuesday, when Wholesale Inventories & Consumer Credit data will also be reported.

Wednesday will provide us with ADP Employment, U.S. Trade Balance, Fed Chairman Powell testifying to the House, JOLTs Job Openings data & Beige Book information.

On Thursday Jobless Claims data will be reported & Fed Governor Waller is scheduled to speak & Friday wraps the week up with Employment Report, U.S. Unemployment Rate & Federal Budget Data.

See you back here next week!

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACTS OF DFEN, DUSL, EWG, SAA, GXG, REM, IYZ or PBW AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***

Last week’s big word for markets was inflation, with CPI prints & Fed speakers all echoing that more needs to be done to reach their target goals.

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF dropped -0.19% this past week, floating around the same $407-8 price level that has played critical support & resistance.

Their overhead resistance levels are $408.17, $406.49 & $408.61, with support at the $404.08, $403.30 & $399.79.

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF finished the week up +0.49%.

They have support at the $297.25, $295.34 & $295.04, as they look to try to break above their $304.40, $304.69 & $309.78 resistance levels.

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF finished the week +1.48%, with smaller cap stocks having the strongest week based on the major indexes.

They enter this week with support at the $192.80. $191.54 & $189.15 & their nearest resistance points are $199.26 & $200.03/share.

Let’s dive into this week’s top & bottom performing ETFs that provide dividends & also have tradable options.

Please note as reading this week’s post that due to anticipated volatility, using options strategies is the most effective way to trade the names listed below, but it began to sound redundant during the publishing.

Mexico (EWW), Steel (SLX), US Home Construction (ITB) & The Netherlands (EWN) Are All Bullishly Leading The Market

EWW, the iShares MSCI Mexico Capped ETF has gained +20.53% over the past year, gaining +37.45% since their lows of September 2022.

They offer a 3% cushion in the form of a dividend for investors who hold for a year, but their RSI is nearing overbought territory.

While their MACD shows that there could be a bit more momentum in the near-term, current resistance levels are $58.61 & $59.45, near the 52 week high.

It appears best to wait & see how their price behaves around their $56.94, $55.29 & $54.39 support levels before making any moves on EWW.

SLX, the VanEck Vectors Steel ETF has gained +24.21% over the past year, climbing +52.88% since their low in July 2022.

They offer a better cushion for reducing the impact of a price decline in the name of a 4.27% dividend.

However, just like EWW, SLX’s primary resistance levels now are at & near their 52 week high levels, $68.58 & $69.18/share.

Their support levels of $67.02, $66.45 & $66.42 will be interesting to get more insight into where SLX goes next.

ITB, the iShares US Home Construction ETF has gained +3.58% over the past year, with a +43.65% gain from their low of July 2022.

They have less protection from their modest 0.76% dividend, and signal further declines in the near-term based on their bearish MACD & most recent candlesticks.

With overhead resistance also near the 52 week highs at $70.04 & $73.90, it would be best to wait & see how they behave around their $68.21, $67.83 & $67.76 support levels before entering a new position.

EWN, the iShares MSCI Netherlands ETF has dropped -4.8% over the last year, but has bounced back +48.26% since their low of October 2022.

They’ve spent much of 2023 so far consolidating in the $41-43 range & their MACD signals that there is more near-term losses on the horizon.

With only 1.75% in protection from their dividend & resistance at the $43.57 & $43.67/share range, it would be wise to see how they behave at their $42.19, $41.38 & $41.29/share support levels before entering a position.

China (YINN), Utilities (UTSL), Psychedelics (PSIL) & Junior Gold Miners (SGDJ) Are All Bearishly Lagging The Market

YINN, the Direxion Daily FTSE China Bull 3x Shares has dropped -70.34% over the last year.

Their MACD is beginning to turn less bearish, with an RSI approaching oversold territory.

Their support level of $47.63 will be critical, as their next support levels from the past 52 weeks are at $42.45 & $40.65 & their 1% dividend does not offer much cushion.

UTSL, the Direxion Daily Utilities Bull 3x Shares has fallen -1.5% over the past year, with a -38.49% decline since their high in April of 2022.

Their MACD recently turned bullish, and their RSI is approaching neutral again, while we wait to see if they pivot upwards from their $27.58 support level they just touched.

UTSL has resistance overhead at the $31 & $31.89/share price levels, with additional support at the $30.22, $30 & $29.56/share (10 Day Moving Average) price points.

PSIL, the AdvisorShares Psychedelics ETF has dropped -1.5% over the past year, but has fallen -38.49% from their high of April 2022.

Their recent candlesticks signal that there is additional declines for PSIL in the near-term that their 2.5% dividend can’t protect against.

PSIL has support at the $2.12 (2 points), $2.08 & $1.79/share, while their resistance levels are currently at $2.21, $2.22 & $2.23.

SGDJ, the Sprott Junior Gold Miners ETF has dropped -30.33% over the last year, and decreased -37.78% since their high of April 2022.

Their $28.12 support level will be important to watch, with the next levels coming in at $27.52 & $27.17.

SGDJ’s MACD is beginning to level out, but it is still too early to tell if it will turn bullish in the near-term or not, although their RSI is fast approaching oversold territory.

SGDJ’s next resistance levels are $29.35, $29.42 & $30.25.

Tying It All Together

This week will kick off slowly, with the markets being closed Monday in observance of President’s Day.

Tuesday we get the S&P Flash US Services PMI, S&P Flash US Manufacturing PMI & Existing Home Sales data.

Wednesday brings us the FOMC Minutes of the February 1st Meeting, followed by Initial Jobless Claims, GDP & Atlanta Fed President Bostic speaking on Thursday.

Friday concludes the week with Consumer Spending, Personal Income (both nominal), PCE Index, Core PCE Index, Core PCE Y-o-Y, New Home Sales & Consumer Sentiment numbers.

Have a great week!

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACTS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM, EWW, SLX, ITB, EWN, YINN, UTSL, PSIL or SGDJ AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***

Earnings calls continued this past week, including from companies such as Cummins, TFI International, BP Amoco PLC, DuPont De Nemours Inc., The Walt Disney Company & more.

There was also a lot of activity coming from Federal Reserve speakers all week, which challenged the recent dovish interpretations of their announcements so far this year.

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF declined -1.05% during a volatile week for stocks, which compared to the other indexes shows large cap stocks were the most favorable losers.

SPY will test their $404.08 & $403.30/share support levels this week, with a last chance effort to stay in the $400’s coming from their $399.79 support.

The $408-9 price zone is acting as a strong resistance zone, which looks difficult to break through in the near-term.

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF declined -2.12% last week, due to data from the earnings calls of the week, as well as for newly revived fears in the Fed’s rate hiking’s impact on technology stocks.

Their near-term support levels include $296.17, $295.51, $289.89, $289.65 & a support zone in the $283-4 range, while they have resistance at the $302.29 & $304.69/share level.

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF fell -3.39% this past week, showing the weakest performing names in the week were smaller cap stocks.

Their resistance levels of $191.54 & $193.09 will be tested this week, with support at the $189.15 & multiple touch-points in the $188-9 zone.

Let’s dive into some of the best & worst performing sectors & geo-locations by ETF.

Aerospace & Defense (DFEN), U.S. Oil Equipment & Services (IEZ), Gaming (BJK) & Semiconductors (SOXX) All Bullishly Leading The Market

DFEN, the Direxion Daily Aerospace & Defense Bull 3X Shares ETF has climbed 8.83% over the past year, with a remarkable 90.12% of gains since their low in September 2022.

They’ve spent the last couple of months consolidating, with the $21.64 resistance level looking set to be tested this week.

Their MACD & RSI are both signaling near-term declines, with all eyes set to look at how they behave when meeting the $21.50 & $21.47/share support levels.

With such a low yield, it appears best in the near-term to wait for an entry into this name.

IEZ, the iShares U.S. Oil Equipment & Services ETF has gained 44.17% over the past year, gaining 70.62% from their low in July of 2022.

Their MACD has been bearish for the last few weeks, as they have also been in a consolidation period.

IEZ’s dividend is not much in terms of providing a cushion for investors & their only resistance for the last 52 weeks is $23.40, signaling that they are primed to cool down in the near-term.

Before entering or adding to a position, it would be best to see how their support levels of $22.40 & $22.14 hold up.

BJK, the VanEck Vectors Gaming ETF has declined ~1% over the past year, but has staged a 37.88% rebound from their lows of September 2022.

They too have limited resistance overhead from the past year, with only the $44.10 & $45 price levels for resistance.

However, BJK’s MACD & RSI have been in bearish decline, and their most recent gap down day looks to be adding more downward momentum.

BJK’s dividend is quite low, making it imperative to wait to see how they behave at their $42.47, $42.16 & $41.39 support levels before entering or adding to a positon.

SOXX, the iShares Semiconductor ETF has declined -13.75% over the past year, but has gained 45.47% since hitting their low of October 2022.

Their MACD just completed a bearish crossover, and their RSI is still above 50 (neutral), signaling that this may have a lot of room to run downward in the coming weeks.

With only a 1% cushion in form of a dividend & resistance at $417.79 & the 10 day moving average $420.20, it would be wisest to make options trades around SOXX, while waiting to see how their $413.53 support holds up in the near-term.

Real Estate (DRN), Short Emerging Markets (EUM), TIPS Bonds (TIP) & Latin America 40 (ILF) Are All Bearishly Lagging The Market

DRN, the Direxion Daily Real Estate Bull 3X Shares ETF has declined -43.39% over the past year, although they have managed to gain 67% from their low in October 2022.

Last week’s bearish MACD crossover signals more near-term declines, however they do offer a 2% yield to cushion holders of the ETF for a year by 2.16%.

There are multiple touch-points at the $12.17 support level, as well as support at $12.10, which is what investors & traders should be eyeing to see how DRN behaves at these levels.

EUM, the ProShares Short Emerging Markets ETF has gained 16% over the past year, but has fallen -17.5% from their high in October 2022.

Their RSI is still neutral, but their MACD is beginning to roll over bearishly.

EUM has support at $14.41, as well as multiple touch-points at the $14.35/4 price level, which should be tested in the coming week.

TIP, the iShares TIPS Bond ETF has fallen -7.56% over the last year, with a -11.9% decline from their high in March of 2022.

Their MACD has been bearish for over a week, and they offer a 6.88% dividend as a cushion for investors who hold their shares for a year or longer.

TIP’s $106.62, $106.58 & $106.28/share support levels will be in focus in the coming weeks.

ILF, the iShares Latin America 40 ETF has gained 2.27% over the past year, but has fallen -13.44% since their high in March 2022.

Their dividend of 12% offers a supportive cushion for long-term holders, but their near-term indicators all signal more near-term declines are in store.

ILF has support at the $24.01, $23.81 &$23.74/share price levels, which are where traders & investors should be watching in the coming weeks.

Tying It All Together

This week we will continue to hear more earnings calls from companies, including Marriott, CocaCola, Cisco, Kraft Heinz, Ryder, Shake Shack & John Deere.

Tuesday we will hear the CPI numbers, followed Wednesday by the Retail Sales numbers, Empire State Manufacturing Index, Industrial Production Index, Capacity Utilization Rate, NAHB Home Builder’s Index & Business Inventories numbers.

Thursday brings additional housing numbers, including Building Permits & Housing Starts, as well as the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey, Household Debt (SAAR), Producer Price Index Final Demand & the usual jobless numbers.

Friday will show the Import Price Index & Index of Leading Economic Indicators numbers, to conclude a busy week in data.

Last week set the stage for slowing momentum in markets, let’s see what this week brings!

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OF OR OPTIONS CONTRACTS FOR SPY, QQQ, IWM, DFEN, IEZ, BJK, SOXX, DRN, EUM, TIP or ILF AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***

Last week we continued to hear earnings calls, including from tech giants Alphabet, Amazon & Apple, as well as from pharmaceutical companies & more.

We also received updated numbers on home prices, construction spending, employment numbers, manufacturing & of course, the Federal Reserves rate announcement.

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF gained 1.64% after a week with losses on Monday & Friday, with gains in the middle of the week.

It has support at $412.05, followed by the $408 price zone, as well as support points at $405.86, $404.08 & $403.30.

The RSI is beginning to look weaker, signaling that there will be near-term weakness before they hit the $418.31 resistance level.

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF climbed 3.35% this week, but it is also signaling that there will be a near-term cool down period based on their RSI retreating from overbought territory.

They have support at the $304.69, $296.17, $295.84 & $295.51, with resistance at the $309.78, $312.64 & $313.68/share price level.

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF gained 3.91% this week, signaling that smaller cap stocks were favorites of the week.

They too are signaling a near-term cool off, with an RSI that has just dipped back underneath overbought territory.

IWM has support at $191.54, $190.81, $189.15 & multiple touch-points in the $188-range, with resistance at the $199.26, $200.03 & $202.37/share price levels.

S&P Homebuilders (XHB), S&P High Beta (SPHB), France (EWQ) & Global Copper Miners (COPX) All Bullishly Leading The Market

XHB, the SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF is still 1% below where it was a year ago, however they have climbed 40.2% since their low in June 2022.

While XHB offers a slight cushion in the form of a 0.90% dividend, investors would be wise to wait for their price to correct more.

XHB has overhead resistance at $71.29 & $72.98/share, when looking at the past 52 weeks.

They have support at the $70.10, $68.23, $68.20 & $67.67/share price levels, which are where it will be interesting to see how they behave at.

SPHB, the Invesco S&P 500 High Beta ETF has also posted a strong recovery from their mid-2022 lows.

Their RSI & MACD are both signaling that they’re cooling off, and their 0.6% dividend yield does not provide an adequate cushion against losses.

EWQ, the iShares MSCI France ETF has gained 2.81% over the last year, but has climbed 188% since their lowest point in September 2022.

Offering a better cushion than the former mentioned ETFs with their 2.88% dividend, EWQ also looks set to drop in the near-term.

Before investing or adding to a position, it would be wise to watch how EWQ behaves at their support levels, which are $36.96, $35.45, $34.71, $34.62 & $34.52.

COPX, the Global X Copper Miners ETF has gained 9% since a year ago, with a 54.6% improvement from their low in July 2022.

They also provide a decent cushion of 2.8% in the form of dividends for investors who hold the ETF for a year.

However, given their RSI & MACD it would be wise to wait & see how they react around their support levels in the near-term.

COPX has support at the $38.30, $37.84, $37.63, $37.47 & $37.41/share price levels.

DB Energy Fund (DBE), Japan (HEWJ), Colombia (GXG) & Wheat (WEAT) All Bearishly Lagging The Market

DBE, the Invesco DB Energy Fund ETF has gained 2.62% since a year ago, however they have dropped -32.71% from their high in June 2022.

While their RSI is approaching oversold & their MACD is bearish, investors would be wise to wait to see how they react to their $19.92 support level.

With a low 0.84% dividend, there is little cushion against additional losses should they break through support bearishly.

HEWJ, the iShares Currency Hedged MSCI Japan ETF has gained 7.2% in the past year, despite falling -2.64% since their high in December 2022.

Their MACD has begun to curl over bearishly, and their RSI is approaching overbought conditions, signaling that there is more near-term pain to come.

HEWJ has a lot of support in the $27 & $26 range, including $27.95, $27.86, $27.58 & $27.47.

While they offer a 1.53% dividend, it would be wise to watch how they behave around their support zones before investing.

GXG, the Global X MSCI Colombia ETF has fallen 25.6% over the last year, with a -35.3% decrease from their April 2022 high.

Investors intent on holding GXG for a year or longer may be able to begin making a position, as their 12% dividend will protect them for losses up to $18.15/share.

GXG has support at the $20.26, $20.20 & $20.11/share.

WEAT, the Teucrium Wheat Fund ETF has gained 5.49% since a year ago, however they have dropped -35.4% since their high in March of 2022.

They do not offer a dividend & are very close to their 52 week low, signaling that investors should wait to see how they behave at their support levels before buying shares.

WEAT has support at the $7.63, $7.35 & $7.23/share price levels.

Tying It All Together

This week we will continue to hear earnings reports, which will likely contribute to near-term weakness in markets.

Additionally, there are a number of Federal Reserve speakers lined up for the week, which should give more insight into how dovish or hawkish policymakers really are.

Tuesday will also feature international trade deficit & consumer credit numbers, Wednesday we will get wholesale inventories revised numbers, jobless claims data on Thursday & UMich consumer sentiment & inflation expectations data.

One thing to watch will be how the market reacts to earnings & Fed speakers after a year that has been volatile & on a week with limited data being reported.

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM, XHB, SPHB, EWQ, COPX, DBE, HEWJ, GXG & WEAT AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***

Last week most market participants’ focus was on the CPI readings that came out largely in-line with expectations, as well as a number of speeches by US Federal Reserve officials, before banks began reporting earnings on Friday.

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF closed +2.69% this past week, as traders & investors began adding to their holdings after many watched the markets for the first trading week of the year.

Their next test of resistance will be the $399.79/share price level, finding support at their 200 Day Moving Average at $394.10.

Despite many market participants choosing to wait & watch during the year’s first trading week, volumes decreased week-over-week for SPY, signaling investors are still on the fence as earnings calls for Q4 2022 begin kicking off.

The $388-389 price zone will be an area to watch over the coming week(s), to gauge how the index will head next as more & more earnings data comes in.

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF gained 4.53% during the last week, trading on higher volume than the previous week (unlike SPY).

Their MACD is beginning to signal a bearish rollover, and it will be interesting to see how much support they find in the $278 range (multiple support points between $278-279), as they look to try to break above their resistance zone in the $283-284 price range.

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF gained 5.33% last week, helping their RSI approach overbought levels at 65.76.

They are set to have a few resistance levels in the $188-189 range, with support at the $186.64/share level.

Small caps look to be more overbought than their larger peers based on the RSI‘s above, but the week ahead’s earnings call results may change that tone.

Let’s get into this week’s out-performers & laggers.

Argentina (ARGT), Copper Miners (COPX), Oil Services (OIH) & Chindia (FNI) All Bullishly Leading The Market

ARGT, the Global X MSCI Argentina ETF has had a strong year, rebounding 70.86% since their July 2022 low.

While they offer protection for investors in the form of their 2.12% dividend, their RSI is currently very overbought at 84.23.

While volumes have been above average for 2023 vs. the year prior, it looks best to wait before investing in a new ARGT position or adding to existing holdings.

Savvy traders can utilize options to create profits in the meantime that can be put towards adding to ARGT shares as their price cools off.

COPX, the Global X Copper Miners ETF has also enjoyed a steep recovery since their July 2022 lows, gaining back ~60% & approaching their 2022 highs from March & April.

Like ARGT, COPX also is currently overbought in the near-term, with an RSI of 76.18.

While they pay a 2.71% dividend to investors who are willing to hold their shares for a year, it may be wise to wait until their share price cools off & to see how they interact with the $40 price level.

With support at $40.04 & $40.03 & gaps before the next support ($38.41), downward momentum may cause this ETF to fall beyond the dividend’s ability to break even & by that point have additional downward momentum.

OIH, the VanEck Vectors Oil Services ETF has also had a solid 69.22% recovery since July of 2022, after starting off that year strongly.

While their RSI is still not outright overbought, it is approaching it, signaling to investors that now is not the best time to establish a position, nor to add to an existing one.

With only a 0.88% dividend yield, there is even less of a cushion than the prior two examples, plus they currently only have one resistance level above their current price within the last year & a hanging man candle from Friday 1/13/2023.

While they’re a name to keep on your radar, it looks safest to wait to see how they fare with the $319.53 & $313.80 support levels before entering a new position.

OIH also has options which can be utilized for profits while awaiting to see how they fare moving forward.

FNI, the First Trust ISE Chindia Index Fund has also has a strong end of 2022 into 2023.

Gaining 53% since their 2022 low in October, they now face resistance tests at $43.64 & $43.84/share, while their overbought RSI (72) signals their need to cool off in the meantime.

Given the negligible dividend they offer, this one will not offer much in means of protection against losses & they do not have tradable options, which may further dissuade investors from them.

Colombia (GXG), Battery Metals & Materials (BATT), US Technology (IYW) & Regional Banking (KRE) All Bearishly Lagging The Market

GXG, the Global X MSCI Colombia ETF has recently made a slight recovery from their losses that plagued them into October/November of 2022.

While their overbought RSI signals that they are due to cool off in the near-term, they offer an 11% dividend, which provides protection down to their $19.53 support level.

With this in mind, there is wiggle room for loss on the way down, and GXG does have options that can be utilized for near-term profits even as the ETF declines.

BATT, the Amplify Advanced Battery Metals & Materials ETF has had a strong first couple of weeks in 2023, rebounding from their 52 week low(s) of $11.45/46 by 14%.

Their 3.7% dividend offers some cushion, and their options can be traded while investors wait to see how they handle the $12.56/57 support levels that are just beneath a couple of gaps.

One note, there are additional gaps beneath this support, so it would be wise to pay strong attention to any buying done in this zone, as the ladder could be kicked out from underneath them at any moment.

IYW, the iShares US Technology ETF had a disappointing 2022 & is not off to the strongest of starts in 2023.

They sport a negligible dividend that offers limited protection from further price declines (0.48%).

The $78.12 support level will be important to watch, as if they break below that there is high likelihood that they cross into the $76/share range before finding support & establishing a floor/price range.

KRE, the SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF also suffered in 2022, and has been attempting to build up positive momentum in the near-term.

While their RSI is still neutral, they will not be immune to broader market sell-offs, and offer only 2.43% of cushion from losses in their dividend.

While they have many support points beneath them, this is a name to be keeping an eye on in the coming weeks, but not necessarily ready for an entry into a position just yet.

Tying It All Together

This week earnings calls continue after our Monday holiday, with Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, United Airlines & others reporting on Tuesday.

On Tuesday the Empire State Manufacturing Index number will be reported, followed by Retail Sales, PPI Final Demand, Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization, the NAHB Home Builder’s Index & the Fed’s Beige Book on Wednesday.

Thursday we hear about initial jobless claims (and continuing), as well as Building Permits, Housing Starts, the Philadelphia Fed’s Manufacturing Index & the Fed’s Brainard will also be speaking.

Friday morning we get Existing Home Sales (SAAR) numbers, and Fed Governor Christopher Waller will be speaking at the Council on Foreign Relations.

Enjoy the rest of the long weekend & see you back here next week!

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS POSTIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM, ARGT, COPX, OIH, FNI, GXG, BATT, IYW, or KRE AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***

Happy New Year to all of my readers on here; I hope you have an excellent & profitable 2023!

The first week of trading is in the books for the year, with most indexes showing investors’ reluctance to dive right into the markets.

Rather than break down the same issues we’ve been discussing for over a quarter now, let’s dive into some charts.

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF continued to trade in a sideways trend that began in mid-December 2022, with it’s only noticeable gain taking place on this past Friday (+2.29%).

While its MACD appears weakly bullish, their RSI has returned to neutral, which increases the likelihood of a near-term decline.

The next support levels are $385.06, $381.96, $377.73 & $374.77.

Should the last one be crossed bearishly, there will be downward momentum that after ~2% ($367.10) will see the lows of September & October 2022 retested.

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF that trades with the NASDAQ also was trading sideways to kick off the new year, with the most prominent day of gains taking place on Friday as well (+2.76%).

Given the sensitivity of the NASDAQ to interest rates, there looks to be more trouble ahead for NASDAQ names as the Federal Reserve has echoed that they are still not ready to begin pausing hikes, much less easing.

QQQ’s next support levels will be important, as after $266.46 & $265.11 are tested, the next support zone is in the $259.73-258.46 price levels, before their final low support level from October 2022 is to be tested.

Should the $253.65 level be broken, there looks to be a long way to go downwards before finding additional support.

IWM, the ProShares Russell 2000 ETF, which tracks the 2,000 smallest stocks in the Russell 3,000 faired similarly, with the only major upward movement of the week occurring on Friday (+2.25%).

IWM has a support zone between the $176.48-$174.12 price levels, and more potential touch points on the way down than the former two ETFs.

Given where they currently stand, there is no upwards trend, so this does not look like an appealing time to enter any of the names above.

However, traders who us options as protective hedges have the opportunity to purchase them, collect their dividend yields, while also being able to profit from their additional near-term downward movements.

I will be looking to see how each of these indexes performs in the coming week(s), but the sluggish start to 2023 does not look promising for much growth in the mid-term, unless we see some major macro-headline developments.

Let’s take a closer look at some of the best & worst performing sectors & geo-locations by ETF!

Turkey (TUR), China (PGJ), Aerospace & Defense (DFEN) & Gold Miners (GDXJ) Are All Bullishly Leading The Pack

TUR, the iShares MSCI Turkey ETF has shown continued steady growth over the last year, rising 88%+ in that time period (excluding proceeds from their 2.01% dividend).

Their MACD is bearish & their RSI is bearishly approaching neutral after a long period of growth, signaling that there may be a cool off period on their horizon.

Given the number of gaps shown on their chart (6 months shown above), it looks best to wait & see what direction they end up moving in from here.

Traders looking to capitalize on their downside movements can buy in-the-money puts or sell out-of-the-money calls for additional income while they establish a price range.

PGJ, the Invesco Golden Dragon ETF has also performed well this year, rising ~85% since their low of late-October (excluding their 0.73% dividend).

Much like TUR, they too have begun sputtering near their 52 week high & look ready to go test some of their support levels.

Investors may think to wait & see how they interact with their lower $29 support zone before entering a position ($29.34-29.13), as should they bearishly break through there, the $28 support levels are awfully spread out.

PGJ does have options, which savvy traders can use to their advantage while they wait to see which direction they move in later into the month.

DFEN, the Direxion Daily Aerospace & Defense Bull 3x Shares ETF has also had a strong year in terms of their recovery from the lows of October (+2.71% on the year, + 83.69% since September/October’s low, excluding their 0.44% dividend).

This name will require more attention to headlines, as there are bearish overall market catalysts that can be bullish for defense stocks.

Their $21.19 & $21.39 resistance levels are in focus in the coming weeks, while they have support at the $20.81 & $20.19 price levels.

As with most of the other names on today’s list, DFEN stock has options that can be used to profit from their performance while the market establishes where they are currently valued.

GDXJ, the VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF has also had a year that was relatively flat (+1.49%), despite posting a ~54% gain from their lows established in October of 2022 (excluding gains from their 0.46% dividend).

For the upside, look at the $41.02-41.40 price range, where resistance will have had to fill a gap up before reaching, and on the downside they have support at $38.27 & $37.29.

Cloud Computing (SKYY), Cannabis (CNBS), ARKK Innovation (ARKK) & Clean Energy (ACES) Are All Bearishly Lagging The Pack

SKYY, the First Trust Cloud Computing ETF has had a difficult year, falling -42% (excluding their 0.23% dividend) & resting atop their $55.01-$55.62 support range.

While their RSI is on the oversold side, their MACD is signaling that there looks to be a retest of the support mentioned above in the near-term.

CNBS, the Amplify Seymour Cannabis ETF has also had a difficult past year, losing ~61% of its value since the beginning of 2022.

Their RSI is approaching oversold & they have only 2 support points ($5.12 & $4.81) from their current price level, with no dividend to offer investors a cushion.

CNBS will need additional time before being deemed at an ok level to invest in the long-term, but they do have options for traders looking to profit while they establish a new price level.

ARKK, the ARK Innovation ETF has also had a dismal year, losing 63% of its total value since the beginning of 2022.

While those losses are to be expected based on the basket of names that the ETF contains, they do not offer a dividend, meaning that investors who purchased shares are in a tough place.

Their RSI is 42 & they have only 2 support levels beneath them currently ($30.90 & $29.43), signaling that there is likely more downward pain to come in the near-term.

While this isn’t a time to initiate a position just yet, there are opportunities for options traders to profit from them establishing a new price range.

ACES, the ALPS Clean Energy ETF has lost ~25% of its value over the past year (excluding their 1.09% dividend).

Much like the other bearish members of this article they have limited support levels left ($44.03) & they also have the most oversold RSI (37.09).

This does not appear to be a safe entry spot for creating a position, however options traders can profit from trading around them as they try to establish a new price range.

Tying It All Together

2022 was a volatile year for stocks & ETFs, with 2023 looking to start off on the same foot.

As investors search for safe places to put money in a rising rates environment opportunities have opened up in emerging markets, metals & energy, as well as defense names.

Names that are more speculative in nature, such as cannabis companies that are subject to more regulation uncertainty & technology companies that are heavily reliant on debt are feeling the pain of the past year’s interest rate hikes, along with the uncertainty of how far into 2023 the Fed will go before pausing increases.

Earnings calls this week should give some signal into where the economy is heading in the first half of the year, with many of the large US banks reporting on Friday 1/13/23.

There are also a number of Federal Reserve speakers set to speak throughout the week, which should also provide some clarity into the direction of where the markets are likely to head in 2023.

We will also learn more about NY Fed 1 & 5 year inflation expectations, consumer credit, the NFIB small-business index, revised wholesale inventories & CPI numbers this week.

Once we have more information from these reports & meetings there will be more information to begin combing through to figure out how price trends will behave in the coming year.

Best of luck in 2023!

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OF SPY, QQQ, IWM, TUR, PGJ, DFEN, GDXJ, SKYY, CNBS, ARKK, or ACES AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***

SPUU, the Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 2x Shares ETF has shown strength in the last three trading sessions, after beginning September on a downtrend.

Their RSI is neutral, and their MACD looks set to bullishly cross over in the coming days, most likely fueled by quadruple witching covering at the end of the week (9/16).

Volumes are still light, signaling that the market is still rather uncertain of what SPUU’s value is, but there looks to be some positive near-term momentum.

The $80.10 support level & $83.84 resistance levels will be in focus this week.

TQQQ, the ProShares UltraPro QQQ ETF has fared similar to SPUU, with a neutral RSI, and a MACD that looks set to bullishly cross over in the coming days.

Despite having no dividend, TQQQ has options that traders can use as part of their strategy, providing downside protection that is greater than the 3.91% dividend cushion of SPUU.

The $29.04 support level will be interesting to watch for TQQQ this week, with $31.53 being the upside number to watch as resistance.

Uranium Mining (URNM), U.S. Energy (IYE), Chile (ECH) & Corn (CORN) Are Bullishly Leading The Market

URNM, the Sprott Funds Uranium Mining ETF has rebounded well after its lows in early July of 2022.

While they do not have options to trade, they offer a 5.98% cushion for investors who hold them throughout the year.

With an almost oversold RSI & a MACD that is beginning to curl over bearishly, there looks to be buying opportunities in the near-term horizon, where that dividend protection can help alleviate losses.

IYE, the iShares U.S. Energy ETF has also been recovering nicely from the steep declines in early summer of 2022.

Their RSI is still neutral & their MACD is beginning to turn bullish, signaling that there may be more upward momentum to come in the near-term.

IYE has options that can be used to reduce risk in this volatile market, and they offer a 2.85% dividend, which can also be used to reduce risk for investors & traders who hold their shares for a year.

ECH, the iShares MSCI Chile Capped ETF has also been rebounding strongly since June, recovering all that it lost until cooling off over the last week.

They look primed to dip in the near-term, based on their MACD line, signaling an entry-point for investors.

With a 6.71% dividend & options that can be used to hedge risk, there looks to be an interesting opportunity in ECH in the near-to-long term.

CORN, the Teucrium Corn Fund ETF has struggled to regain its losses since June of 2022, and it will be interesting to see if they can remain above the $27.20 support level this week.

Their RSI is on the overbought side of neutral, and their MACD looks set to bearishly cross in the next day or so, showing a potential entry opportunity.

CORN also has options, which traders can use to protect themselves from market volatility, as they do not offer a dividend.

Silver (AGQ), Cannabis (POTX), Real Estate (DRN) & Europe Small-Cap Dividend Stocks (DFE) Are Bearishly Lagging The Market

AGQ, the ProShares Ultra Silver ETF is trying to rebound, after making fresh lows for the year in early September.

The $20.50 resistance level will be the place to be watching, especially as their MACD curls bullish in the next day, with $19.71 being their highest support level.

POTX, the Global X Cannabis ETF had a 5.53% gap up day on Friday, 9/9/2022, as they closed at the $17.18 resistance level.

While they do not have options to trade for protection, they do offer a 7%+ dividend yield, should they fall to the $16.51/share support level.

DRN, the Direxion Daily Real Estate Bull 3x Shares ETF also had a strong week last week, but has had a difficult time recovering from the losses it incurred in April.

Their neutral RSI & MACD that is about to cross over bullishly signal there is momentum coming in the near-term for DRN, and they have options, as well as a dividend yield (1.35%) that can provide some defensive protection for positions.

DFE, the WisdomTree Europe SmallCap Dividend Fund ETF had a 3.15% gap up on Friday, and has an RSI nearing neutral, along with an impending bullish MACD crossover.

They look to be about to establish a new range between the $52.49 & $54.32 price levels, as there are many gaps on either side of the current price to be filled.

Tying It All Together

This upcoming week has a lot of interesting data points & announcements coming out.

On Monday we have the NY Fed 3-Year Inflations Expectations numbers, with Core CPI coming out on Tuesday, as well as the Federal Budget & NFIB Small-Business Index.

Wednesday will have the PPI Final Demand numbers, with Jobless Claims, Retail Sales, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index & Empire State Manufacturing Index numbers coming in on Thursday.

Friday is the UMich Consumer Sentiment & 5 Year Inflation Expectation numbers, as well as a quadruple witching.

Volatility looks to continue onward, although there may be some upside surprises this week, based on the technical levels showing on many charts.

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OF SPUU, TQQQ, UNRM, IYE, ECH, CORN, AGQ , POTX, DRN & DFE AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***