Category: Market News, Research & Commentary

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF lost -0.79% over the past week, in a week filled with earnings reports, the Federal Reserve & ECB’s Interest Rate Decision & other data points flooding in.

Volumes were heavier than they’ve been for the prior month, but were still not as active as in March.

SPY’s MACD is trying to flatten out to cross bullishly, while their RSI remains in the neutral range, signaling that unless there is some positive momentum stemming from Friday’s +1.85% gap up it looks like the $405/share level will be tested again.

SPY has support at the $410.48, $410.35 (10 day moving average), $407.06 & $406.62/share price levels before the $405 mark that it has had difficulty crossing through, with resistance at the $416.49, $416.72, $417.62 & $426.37/share price levels.

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF nudged forward 0.1% over the past week, fairing the best of the indexes we cover in this section for the week.

Their technicals are looking similar to SPY’s, with a bearish, but flattening MACD & an RSI that entered into the overbought end of neutral with Friday’s +2.13% gap up session.

Volumes have been consistent, but like SPY, if the momentum of Friday isn’t able to be carried into the new week, there looks to be a resumption of the rest of the week’s declines for QQQ.

QQQ has support at the $317.86 (10 day moving average), $313.19, $312.16 & $309.30/share price levels, with resistance at the $331.19, $332.51, $346.78 & $368.99/share price levels.

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF lost -0.43% over the past week, despite having the most volatile of the three indexes.

Their MACD is similar to SPY’s & QQQ’s after Friday’s +2.38% gap up session helped to flatten out a bearish trending indicator reading.

IWM’s RSI is neutral, with above average volume this past week compared to the year prior.

IWM has support at the $173.49 (10 day moving average), $172.67, $169.71 & $169.05/share price levels & resistance at the $174.63, $174.71, $175.13 & $175.77/share price levels.

Let’s dive into some of the best & worst performing sectors & geo-locations in the market, based on technical performance rankings!

Italy (EWI), Robotics & Artificial Intelligence (BOTZ), Sports & Gaming Betting (BETZ) & International Equities (SCHF) Are All Bullishly Leading The Market

EWI, the iShares MSCI Italy Capped ETF has gained +23.9% over the past year, improving an impressive +52.45% since their 52-week low in October of 2022 (ex-distributions).

Their RSI is neutral at 50 & while their MACD is currently bearish, it is beginning to make a run at turning bullish after the past couple of weeks’ consolidation range & Friday’s +2.53% gap up.

Volume has been far below average compared to the year prior, signaling that investors are unsure of where they value the ETF.

While EWI offers a 3.85% distribution yield for long-term holders, a protective options strategy would provide better cushion against losses in the near-term, while watching how they behave at support levels before entering or adding to a position.

EWI has support at the $31.53 (10 day moving average), $30.96, $30.95 & $30.51/share (50 day moving average) price levels, with resistance overhead at the $32.02, $32.18, $32.46 & $32.47/share price levels (from 2022, viewing 2 year chart).

BOTZ, the Global X Robotics & Artificial Intelligence Thematic ETF has climbed +9.2% over the past year, adding +45.99% since their 52-week low in October of 2022 (ex-distributions).

Their MACD is on the verge of bullishly crossing over, after spending much of April in a consolidated price range.

Their RSI is on the overbought end of neutral (in part due to Friday’s 1.52% gap up), with recent trading volumes being about average compared to the year prior.

With a tiny 0.15% distribution yield, there is no cushion against a price correction, making an options strategy the best near-term choice while waiting to see how they behave at key support levels.

BOTZ has support at the $25.10, $24.91 (10 day moving average), $24.61 & $24.47/share (50 day moving average) price levels, with resistance at the $25.51, $25.75, $26.53 & $27.39/share price levels (in 2022, using a 2 year chart).

BETZ, the Roundhill Sports Betting & Gaming ETF added +2.45% over the past year, gaining +34.16% from their 52-week low in September of 2022 (ex-distributions).

They too have an RSI that is on the overbought end of neutral at ~62, while investors show uncertainty & have been trading in low volume.

Their MACD lines are pressed right against one another & their modest 0.22% distribution yield for long-term shareholders will provide limited cushion against losses, making it important to have an insurance policy in place, whether it be through buying puts, selling calls or another strategy, while waiting to see how they behave at support levels.

BETZ has support at the $17, $16.87 (10 day moving average), $16.85 & $16.70/share price levels, with resistance at the $17.34, $17.62, $17.66 & $18.20/share price ranges.

SCHF, the Schwab International Equity ETF has improved +9.92% over the past year, adding +31.17% from their 52-week low in October of 2022 (ex-distributions).

They too have an RSI in the low 60’s, signaling a rise towards overbought conditions, with very unconvincing low volume in 2023, compared to the year prior.

Their MACD is heading in the direction of a bullish crossover in the near-term, if the momentum from Friday’s +1.53% gap up is sustained in early next week.

While they offer a 2.51% cushion in terms of a distribution yield for long-term shareholders, a defensive options position would be better suited for while you wait to see how they behave around their support levels in the coming weeks.

SCHF has support at the $35.60 (10 day moving average), $35.58, $34.64 (50 day moving average) & $34.30/share price levels, with resistance at the $35.96, $36.04, $36.23 & $36.49/share price levels.

Diversified Commodity Strategy (PDBC), U.S. Broker Dealers & Securities Exchanges (IAI), U.S. Preferred Stocks (PFF) & Chinese Technology (CQQQ) Are All Bearishly Lagging The Market

PDBC, the Invesco Optimum Yield Diversified Commodity Strategy No K-1 ETF has fallen -18.11% over the past year, dropping -33.19% from their 52-week high in June of 2022, but reclaiming +3.66% from their 52-week low in March of 2023 (ex-distributions).

Friday’s +2.29% gap up helped to jolt their RSI from almost oversold levels up to the oversold end of neutral at 43.

Their MACD is beginning to move towards a bullish crossover in the near-term if they are able to maintain any momentum into the new week, but their weaker than average volumes cast doubt on that happening.

PDBC pays a 13.9% distribution year to long-term shareholders, which will provide a cushion against losses until the $11.94/share level, if the shares are held for a year or longer.

However, it would be wisest to wait & see how they behave against their support levels, or else to take a near-term approach with an options strategy while waiting to purchase shares at a less volatile time in the markets.

PDBC has support at the $13.47, $13.38, $13.02 & $11.74/share price levels (using a two year chart), with resistance at $13.94 (10 day moving average), $13.96, $14 & $14.12/share price levels.

IAI, the iShares U.S. Broker-Dealers & Securities Exchanges ETF has nudged forward +0.63% over the past year, dropping -16.69% from their 52-week high in February 2023, while regaining +9.14% since their 52-week low in July of 2022 (ex-distributions).

With similar technicals to PDBC, IAI’s RSI also rebounded nicely from near oversold territory to the oversold end of neutral at 40 due to Friday’s +2.44% gap up day.

They also are lacking in volume compared to the year prior, signaling uncertainty in where shareholders value their shares, with a MACD that could bullishly crossover this week, if there is some momentum carried over into the new week from Friday’s price action.

Unfortunately, IAI’s distribution yield for long-term holders is only 2%, providing much less cushion from losses, meaning it is best to play a defensive options strategy now, or wait to see how their support levels hold up in the near-term before entering a position.

IAI has support at the $86.66, $86.27, $85.29 & $84.57/share price limits, with resistance at the $89.71, $89.84 (10 day moving average), $90.36 & $91.54/share price levels.

PFF, the iShares U.S. Preferred Stock ETF has shed -4.96% over the past year, falling -15.93% from their 52-week high in August of 2022 & only gaining +4.09% since their 52-week low in October of 2022 (ex-distributions).

The situation for PFF looks a bit more dire than the previous two names.

Their MACD is in bearish freefall, after 5 straight steep declining sessions before Friday’s +1.47% recovery.

Volumes have recently been above average & their RSI is still closer to oversold than neutral, signaling more future losses in the near-term.

PFF does pay a 6.97% distribution yield, which will cover some losses, but a defensive options strategy with a “wait & see” approach to long shares looks best in the near-term while we wait to see how it behaves at its support levels.

PFF has support at the $29.57, $29.29, $29.18 & $28.59/share price levels, with resistance at the $29.90, $30.06, $30.57 (10 day moving average) & $30.83/share (50 day moving average) price levels.

CQQQ, the Invesco China Technology ETF inched forward +2.27% over the past year, however they fell -20.36% from their 52-week high in June of 2022, but have improved +38.85% since their 52-week low in October of 2022 (ex-distributions).

CQQQ is beginning to show signs of an impending bullish MACD crossover, however their recent performance was on extremely light volume compared to the year’s average.

Their RSI is moving back towards the oversold end of neutral, but there appears to be a tough test in the form of a shooting star candle at the top of the window that they are trying to fill.

With such a small 0.08% distribution yield for long-term shareholders, this is another one in the “Wait & see” or trade options defensively around name until we see how its support levels hold up in the near-term.

CQQQ has support at the $41.34 (10 day moving average), $41.07, $40.98 & $40.51/share price levels, with resistance at the $41.60, $42.11, $42.75 & $42.80/share (200 day moving average) price levels.

Tying It All Together

Next week’s data kicks off with Wholesale Inventories reported at 10 am on Monday, followed by Fed Senior Loan Survey data at 2 pm.

We also continue quarterly earnings calls on Monday, featuring Paypal, Cabot, Devon Energy, KKR, Novavax, Six Flags, Skyworks Solutions, Tyson Foods & Western Digital, plus others.

Tuesday the NFIB Optimism Index data is released at 6 am.

AirBnb is the big earnings call on Tuesday, with reports from Affirm Holdings, Aramark, Fisker, FoxCorp, H&R Block, Hostess Brands, Mannkind, Occidental Petroleum, Rackspace Technology, Squarespace, Under Armour, WeWork, Wynn Resorts & more.

Much anticipated Consumer Price Index, Core CPI, CPI Y-o-Y & Core CPI Y-o-Y data will be reported at 8:30 am on Wednesday.

Wednesday’s earnings will feature Disney, Cheesecake Factory, Jazz Pharmaceuticals, Reynolds Consumer Products, Roblox, The Trade Desk, Traeger, Valvoline, Wendy’s, Wolverine World Wide & many other companies.

On Thursday the Producer Price Index, Core PPI, PPI Y-o-Y, Core PPI Y-o-Y, Initial Jobless Claims & Continuing Jobless Claims data are all released at 8:30 am.

Thursday’s earnings calls include CyberArk Software, Dillard’s, JD.com, Krispy Kreme, U.S. Foods, Utz Brands & more.

Friday wraps the week up with Import Price Index & Import Price Index Minus Fuel data at 8:30 am, followed by Consumer Sentiment (preliminary) at 10 am, with Embecta & Spectrum Brands reporting earnings.

See you back here next week!

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM, EWI, BETZ, BOTZ, SCHF, PDBC, IAI, PFF, or CQQQ AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***

Last week earnings reports dominated the headlines, along with the continuing news about banks being in financial distress as a solution is worked out.

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF gained +0.9% over the past week, in a week that started off on a weak foot until Thursday & Friday’s sessions.

Volumes were more enthusiastic compared to the week prior, returning to about average compared to the year prior.

Their RSI is beginning to show signs of weakness as it approaches overbought conditions, but their MACD is approaching a bullish crossover, which signals there will be some volatility in the coming week.

SPY’s current moving averages, particularly the 10 day moving average are now all in positions to act as support, but they need to re-test the $416.72 resistance level.

SPY has support at the $411.78 (10 day moving average), $410.48, $407.06 & $406.62/share price levels, with resistance at the $416.72, $426.37, $438.53 & $442.12/share price levels.

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF improved +1.88% over the past week, faring the best of the indexes, as investors cheered earnings reports & piled into stocks most impacted by interest rates in the week before the next rate announcement.

They too have an RSI approaching overbought, while their MACD is turning towards a bullish crossover, confirming the volatility SPY is also showing on the horizon.

Volumes for QQQ were also relatively in-line with average compared to the year prior, but Friday’s candlestick is signaling more uncertainty in the near-term, as it is not a hanging man due to the opening price being too low into the real-body:shadow, but is not entirely signaling bullishness either.

QQQ has support at the $317 (10 day moving average), $313.19, $312.16 & $309.30/share price levels, with resistance at the $331.19, $332.51, $338.56 & $346.78/share price levels.

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF -1.33% 0ver the past week, has investors were moving away from smaller cap stocks & investments in favor of larger S&P 500 names & technology heavy NASDAQ names.

They ended the week trying to strengthen after falling out of a consolidation range earlier in the week, on above average volume compared to the year prior.

Their RSI is neutral, with their MACD fluttering around as Monday’s session will determine whether or not it settles in a bullish or bearish direction.

IWM has support at the $175.13, $174.71, $174.63 & $172.67/share price levels, with resistance at the $175.77, $175.83, $176.07 (10 day moving average) & $178.85/share (50 day moving average) price levels.

Let’s take a look into some of the best & worst performing sectors & geo-locations in the market, based on this week’s technical analysis!

Homebuilders (XHB), Greece (GREK), Indonesia (EIDO) & Emerging Markets Dividend Stocks (EDIV) Are All Bullishly Leading The Market

XHB, the SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF has climbed +14.49% over the past year, gaining +38.43% since their 52 week low in June of 2022 (ex-distributions).

Their RSI is approaching overbought, while their MACD is beginning to look exhausted & in need of a breather.

Last week’s below average volumes also confirm that XHB’s sentiment is waning in the near-term, and their distribution yield pays 0.94% to long-term holders throughout the year, leaving little protection from downside risks.

Investors should wait to see how they perform around support levels in the coming weeks to plan their entry, while employing an options strategy for additional protection & profits.

XHB has support at the $69.15 (10 day moving average), $69.13, $68 & $67.48/share price levels, with resistance at the $72.78, $73.31, $74.13 & $74.45/share price levels.

GREK, the Global X MSCI Greece ETF has gained +23.85% over the past year, improving 51.06% from their 52 week low in September of 2022 (ex-distributions).

They’ve already begun to cool off a bit recently throughout the month of March, after a steady near 6-month climb & their RSI is back to neutral.

Their MACD is already bearish, with volumes over the past two months being above average compared to the year prior.

While GREK offers a 2.4% distribution yield over the year to long-term holders, they too look best suited for a wait & see approach for long-term investors, with an options strategy such as selling calls or buying puts in place as well for protection from downside moves.

GREK has support at the $31.12 (50 day moving average), $30.65, $28.83 & $26.44/ share (200 day moving average) price levels, with resistance at the $31.77 (10 day moving average), $32.50 & $33.12/share price levels.

EIDO, the iShares MSCI Indonesia ETF has improved by 0.84% over the past year, while gaining +16.64% since their 52 week low in July of 2022 (ex-distributions).

Their RSI is overbought after a couple of major gap up days last week, with volume only being particularly strong on Wednesday, which was a gap up hanging man candlestick session.

Investors & traders would be wise to see how they behave around the most recent gap, to see if they will go test Wednesday’s candlestick level, as that could avalanche into a closing of the window created by Wednesday’s gap up.

With a 2.29% distribution yield for long-term holders & so many signals of uncertainty, EIDO’s behavior at support levels will be critical in timing an entry to a position in this environment.

EIDO has support at the $24.62, $24.11, $24.05 (10 day moving average) & $23.86/share price levels, with resistance at the $25.01, $25.15, $25.27 & $25.79/share price levels.

EDIV, the SPDR S&P Emerging Markets Dividend ETF has gained +0.79% over the past year, climbing +24.44% from their 52 week low in November of 2022 (ex-distributions).

They’re volume tends to be light, with the most recent trading sessions falling below average compared to the year prior & their RSI is on the overbought end of neutral.

While their MACD is bearish, it is beginning to point bearish, mostly due to the gap up day on Thursday of last week.

EDIV pays a 4.51% distribution yield to long-term investors throughout each year, which is a better cushion against losses than many of the other names outlined in this article, but using options for additional protection is advisable in the near-term.

EDIV has support at the $26.64 (10 day moving average), $26.31, $26.01 & $25.93/share (50 day moving average), with resistance at the $26.80, $26.89, $27.14 & $27.76/share price levels.

China Small Cap Stocks (ECNS), Small Cap Momentum Stocks (DWAS), Natural Gas (FCG) & Agribusiness (MOO) Are All Bearishly Lagging The Market

ECNS, the iShares MSCI China Small Cap ETF has fallen -9.03% over the past year, losing -19.33% since their 52 week high in February of 2022, but has rebounded +24.58% since their 52 week low in October of 2022 (ex-distributions).

Their MACD is about to crossover bullish, but weak volumes compared to the year prior don’t signal much strength in the near-term.

Their RSI is on the oversold end of neutral, with Friday’s session resulting in a hanging man candlestick, implying more volatility to come on the horizon.

With a 3.74% distribution yield paid to long-term holders throughout the year they do have some cushion against losses, but an options strategy for protection while waiting to see how they behave at support levels looks to be the best near-term course of action.

ECNS has support at the $32.77, $32.10, $30.91 & $30.46/share price levels, with resistance at the $33.25, $33.44 (10 day moving average), $33.71 & $33.96/share (200 day moving average) price levels.

DWAS, the Invesco DWA Small Cap Momentum ETF has lost -8.52% over the past year, falling -14.61% since their 52 week low in June of 2022, but has bounced +10.84% since their 52 week low in July of 2022 (ex-distributions).

Their RSI is heading back towards neutral after Friday’s gap up following a week of declines, with volumes being about neutral compared to the year prior.

Their MACD is bearish, but hinting at a chance of a near-term bullish crossover, but Friday’s hanging man candlestick signals a dampening of the chances of that.

With a modest 0.81% distribution yield for long-term holders, a protective strategy should be employed, while watching their behavior at support levels.

DWAS has support at the $71.16, $70.51, $70.32 & $69.31/share price levels, with resistance at the $72.09, $72.43, $72.88 (10 day moving average) & $72.89/share price levels.

FCG, the First Trust Natural Gas ETF shed -0.65% over the past year, declining -25.62% from their 52 week high in June of 2022, but has rebounded +17.97% from their 52 week low in July of 2022 (ex-distributions).

Their RSI is neutral, with their MACD in a bearish decline on below average volume for the past couple of month’s trading sessions.

With a 3.58% distribution yield they offer some cushion against losses for long-term holders, but based on the indecisiveness behind their recent performance it appears best to wait to see how they behave at support levels in the near-term, with a defensive near-term trading strategy around them for protection & profits while waiting.

FCG has support at the $23.07 (10 day moving average), $22.77 (50 day moving average), $22.57 & $22.48/share price levels, with resistance at the $23.16, $23.20, $23.33 & $23.63/share price level.

MOO, the VanEck Vectors Agribusiness ETF has lost -11.44% over the past year, losing -16% from their 52 week high in May of 2022, but reclaiming +6.09% since their 52 week low in September of 2022 (ex-distributions).

Thursday & Friday’s recovery sessions have helped push their RSI back towards neutral, but their MACD is still bearish.

Recent trading volumes have also signaled uncertainty, as they have been below average compared to the year prior, which when paired with their 2.16% distribution yield as a cushion against losses stresses the importance of taking a wait & see defensive approach to MOO.

MOO has support at the $84.56, $83.96, $82.89 & $82.66/share price levels, with resistance overhead at the $85.92, $86.09 (10 day moving average), $86.58 (50 day moving average) & $87.18/share (200 day moving average) price levels.

Tying It All Together

May kicks off with highly anticipated data being released, in addition to quarterly earnings calls continuing.

Monday at 9:45 am the S&P US Manufacturing PMI data will be released, followed by ISM Manufacturing & Construction Spending data at 10 am.

On the earning’s front, Monday’s reports include Avis Budget, Chegg, Diamondback Energy, Hologic, J&J Snack Foods, MGM Resorts International, Microstrategy, Norwegian Cruise Line, NXP Semiconductors, SoFi Technologies, Stryker & ZoomInfo, amongst others.

Tuesday we get U.S. Job Openings data reported & Factory Orders data at 10 am, with the m0st anticipated data release being Advanced Micro Devices & Pfizer’s earnings calls.

Other earnings being reported on Tuesday include ADT, BP, Cheniere Energy, Chesapeake Energy, Clorox, Cummins, DuPont, Ford Motor Company, Illinois Tool Works, Marriott, Molson Coors Brewing, Prudential, Simon Property Group, Starbucks, Sunoco, T. Rowe Price, Thomason Reuters, Uber Technologies & Western Union, with many more.

Wednesday will be very interesting, with ADP Employment data kicking off the dat at 8:15 am, S&P U.S. Services PMI data at 9:45 am, ISM Services data reported at 10 am & the highly anticipated Federal Reserve Interest Rate Statement at 2 pm & Fed Chair Powell’s Press Conference at 2:30 pm.

Albermarle, Allstate, Clean Harbors, Fresh Del Monte, Garmin, Hanesbrands, Kraft Heinz, Marathon Oil, MetLife, Phillips 66, Scotts Miracle Grow, Trip Advisor, Wingstop & Yum! Brands are some of Wednesday’s earnings reports.

Thursday morning at 8:30 am we hear U.S. Productivity, U.S. Trade Deficit, Initial Jobless Claims & Continuing Jobless claims data to start off the day.

Apple’s earnings call is Thursday, as well as American International Group, Anheuser-Busch InBev, Ball Corp., Block, ConocoPhillips, DISH Network, DraftKings, DropBox, Ferrari, GoDaddy, Huntington Ingalls, Hyatt Hotels, Kellogg, Lyft, Moderna, Monster Beverage, Peloton Interactive, Shake Shack, Starwood Property Trust, Wayfair, XPO, Yelp & more.

Friday winds down with the U.S. Employment Report, U.S. Unemployment Rate, U.S. Hourly Wages & Hour Wages Year Over Year reported at 8:30 am & Consumer Credit data coming in at 3pm.

Friday’s earnings reports include AMC Entertainment, CBOE Global Markets, Dominion Energy, Goodyear Tire, Johnson Controls, The Cigna Group & more.

See you back here next week!

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM, XHB, GREK, EIDO, EDIV, ECNS, DWAS, FCG or MOO AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF closed the week mostly flat, falling -0.06%, as we began receiving more earnings data from companies, while hearing a number of Federal Reserve speakers throughout the week.

Their MACD is about to bearishly crossover, which looks particularly troubling, as with an RSI of 60 (overbought end of neutral), there is more room to fall before algorithms will be tripped into buying again.

Volume in April has been lower than March, but relatively average compared to the rest of the year prior, and last week’s assortment of candlesticks show a rejection of the $415 price level, followed by uncertainty floating between $410-$415/share.

SPY has support at the $411.97 (10 day moving average), $410.48, $407.06 & $406.62/share price levels, with resistance at the $415.72, $416.72, $426.37 & $438.52/share price levels.

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF fared a bit worse than SPY, dropping -0.62% during the course of last week, as investors moved away from the technology-heavy index.

Their MACD has already completed a bearish crossover in April, as they’ve hovered around a consolidation range for most of the month, with their RSI at 56.

Volumes have been about average/just below average compared to the year prior throughout that time & Friday’s hanging man candle after Thursday’s shooting star candlestick signals more uncertainty & consolidation are on the horizon.

QQQ has support at the $313.19, $312.16, $309.30 & $305.86/share (50 day moving average) price levels, with resistance at the $317.38, $321.63, $331.19 & $332.51/share price levels.

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF proved small caps were the haven of choice this week among market participants, gaining +0.59% over the course of the week.

Their RSI is neutral at 50, and their MACD is beginning to show signs of a near-term bearish crossover on the horizon in the next couple of trading sessions.

Volumes have settled down relative to March’s above average volume & are still about average compared to the year prior.

Much like SPY & QQQ, IWM has been in a consolidation range for the month of April so far, with Thursday & Friday’s candlesticks looking very similar to their larger index counterparts’ as well.

IWM has support at the $177.33 (10 day moving average), $175.83, $175.77 & $175.13/share price levels, with resistance overhead at the $179.78, $179.92, $179.94 (200 day moving average) & $180.56/share (50 day moving average) price levels.

Let’s dive into some of the best & worst sectors & geo-locations in the market based on this week’s technical analysis ratings for their respective ETF’s!

Mexico (EWW), Switzerland (EWL), Semiconductors (SMH) & European SmallCap Dividend Investments (DFE) Are All Bullishly Leading The Market

EWW, the iShares MSCI Mexico Capped ETF has gained +20.64% over the past year, climbing +37.34% from their 52 week low in September of 2022 (ex-distributions).

Their MACD is beginning to send signals of an impending cool off period, which is further supported by Friday’s hanging man candlestick.

Their RSI is on the oversold end of neutral at 58, with recent volumes being a bit lower than average compared to the year prior, signaling slowing enthusiasm in the near-term.

EWW pays a 2.99% distribution to long-term holders, which can provide some protection from a downfall, but otherwise it would be wisest to use an options strategy for protection (selling calls/buying puts), while eying its behavior at support levels in the coming weeks.

EWW has support at the $59.81 (10 day moving average), $59.45, $58.08 (50 day moving average) & $55.29/share price levels, with resistance at the $60.40 & $60.52/share price levels.

EWL, the iShares MSCI Switzerland Capped ETF has gained 2.9% over the past year, but has bounced back +33.54% from their 52 week low in October of 2022 (ex-distributions).

Their RSI is well into overbought territory at 78.98, with their MACD beginning to signal a bearish rollover.

Friday’s hanging man candlestick on a +1% gap up with high volume will make for an interesting Monday/Tuesday session while we wait to see if the gap is filled or not.

EWL pays a 1.78% distribution to long-term shareholders, but that will not be enough protection when you factor in where their support levels, so other methods of insurance would be beneficial while watching where to make a better entry in less volatile market conditions.

EWL has support at the $47.13 (10 day moving average), $45.87, $44.94 & $44.67/share (50 day moving average) price levels, with resistance at the $49.27, $50.28 & $52.02/share price levels.

SMH, the VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF has grown +7% over the past year, while rising +48.73% since their 52 week low in October of 2022 (ex-distributions).

Their MACD has been bearish for a couple of weeks, but their RSI is relatively neutral (oversold side), after spending the past couple of weeks in a consolidation range.

Recent trading volumes have been below average, signaling indecision on the part of investors, which is validated by Friday’s doji candlestick.

SMH’s 0.97% distribution yield doesn’t offer much in the form of insurance against losses from volatility, making it important to have an options strategy as a hedge while eyeing how they behave at support levels to begin planning an entry.

SMH has support at the $246.43, $246.32, $244.41 & $244.28/share price levels, with resistance at the $248.52 (50 day moving average), $249.56, $252.07 (10 day moving average) & $255.64/share price levels.

DFE, the WisdomTree Europe SmallCap Dividend Fund has lost -3% over the past year, but has grown 35.96% since their 52 week low in September of 2022 (ex-distributions).

Their MACD is beginning to signal a bearish crossover in the coming days, with their RSI showing room to cool off, as it is approaching the overbought end of neutral.

This is a lightly traded ETF throughout the year that sports a 5.91% distribution for long-term shareholders.

While eyeing their behavior at support levels, there may be opportunities using options to profit from a near-term strategy, but as the shares themselves as so illiquid, make sure open interest levels are liquid before trading them.

DFE has support at the $59.60 (10 day moving average), $58.41 (50 day moving average), $57.96 & $56.82/share price levels, with resistance at the $60.19, $60.49, $60.84 & $61.27/share price levels.

Regional Banks (DPST), Oil & Gas Exploration & Production (XOP), China (PGJ) & 20+ Year Treasuries (UBT) Are All Bearishly Lagging The Market

DPST, the Direxion Daily Regional Banks Bull 3x Shares ETF has fallen -79.46% over the past year, losing -81.9% from their 52 week high in August of 2022, but reclaiming +9.08% from their 52 week low in March of 2023 (ex-distributions).

Their MACD has been bullish since late March, but their RSI is bearishly trending back to oversold conditions after this most recent consolidation period.

Recent volumes have been above average compared to the year prior, with the past few days’ candlesticks signaling more uncertainty.

While they offer a 4.07% distribution yield to long-term holders, traders can profit in the meantime using options strategies while the market participants find an agreeable price range for DPST.

DPST has support at the $6.93, $6.56 & $6.50/share price levels, with resistance overhead at the $7.23 (10 day moving average), $7.70 & $14.46/share (50 day moving average) price levels.

XOP, the SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF has shed -1.91% over the past year, losing 25.62% since their 52 week high of June of 2022, but gaining 17.51% since their 52 week low of July 2022 (ex-distributions).

Their MACD recently completed a bearish crossover, but their recent volumes have been below average, signaling uncertainty, which is further confirmed by their mix of candlesticks from the past week, which include multiple bearish hanging man candles & a doji.

Their RSI is approaching the oversold end of neutral at 44, but with only 3.01% cushion for losses from their distribution yield (for long-term holders), unless using an options protection strategy, it would be wisest to wait & see at what level they begin trending upward again.

XOP has support at the $125.63, $124.41, $123.58 & $120.33/share price level, with resistance at the $128.32, $129.71 (50 day moving average), $129.90 & $130.44/share price levels.

PGJ, the Invesco Golden Dragon China ETF has gained 7.81% over the past year, losing -20.75% from their 52 week high in June of 2022, while rebounding +60.7% since their 52 week low in October of 2022 (ex-distributions).

Their RSI is beginning to approach oversold conditions, but their MACD is trending downward.

Recent volumes have been extremely light & below average, confirming the negative sentiment that the 2 gap down days last week expressed.

With only 0.93% for longterm holders coming from distribution, this is another one to either trade around using options, or wait to see when it begins to find stable footing at one of its support levels.

PGJ has support at the $27.06, $27.04, $26.85 & $26.64/share price levels, with resistance at the $27.38, $27.45, $27.81 & $27.90/share (200 day moving average) price levels.

UBT, the ProShares Ultra 20+ Year Treasury ETF has lost -26.52% over the past year, losing 30.33% since their 52 week high in April of 2022, but regaining 25.98% since their 52 week low in October of 2022 (ex-distributions).

Their MACD is showing signs of a near-term bullish crossover, but they also run the risk of filling the gap from March of 2023 if there is broader market volatility.

With an RSI at 45 & trending downward, below average volume recently & a modest 0.80% distribution yield for protection, this one is best left alone until a new range is established to trend from.

UBT has support at the $25.66, $25.63, $24.85 & $23.91/share price level, with resistance at the $26.57 (10 day moving average), $26.79, $26.80 & $27.30/share price level.

Tying It All Together

In terms of data reporting, this week starts off quiet, with nothing to be announced on Monday, which will give more control over the market’s direction to the results of earnings reports.

Monday’s earnings reports include Bank of Hawaii, AGNC, Coca Cola, Cleveland-Cliffs, First Republic Bank & Whirlpool.

On Tuesday we get the S&P Case-Schiller Home Price Index (20 cities) & the FHFA Home Price Index data at 9 am, followed by New Home Sales & Consumer Confidence numbers at 10 am.

Also on Tuesday, Microsoft, Alphabet, Archer Daniels Midland, 3M, Biogen, Chubb, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Danaher, DOW, General Electric, General Motors, Halliburton, McDonald’s, Sherwin Williams, Raytheon Technologies, Texas Instruments, UPS, Verizon Communications, Visa & many other large names report their earnings.

Wednesday we get Durable Goods Orders, Durable Goods Minus Transportation, Advanced U.S. Trade Balance In Goods, Advanced Retail Inventories & Advanced Wholesale Inventories data, all at 8:30 am.

Wednesday’s earnings include Meta, Automatic Data, C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Churchill Downs, CME Group, Boeing, eBay, Meritage Homes, Lending Club, Humana, Norfolk Southern, Old Dominion, Otis Worldwide, Penske Auto, Ryder System, Steve Madden, Thermo Fisher, United Rentals, Waste Management, Wyndham Hotels & Resorts and many other names as well.

Thursday’s data kicks off with GDP, Initial Jobless Claims & Continuing Jobless Claims at 8:30 am, and Pending Home Sales at 10 am.

Thursday will also be a busy day of earnings calls, with Amazon, AbbVie, Activision Blizzard, Amgen, Bristol-Myers, Boston Beer Co. Caterpiller, Church & Dwight, Cloudflare, Comcast, Domino’s Pizza, Eli Lilly, Grainger, Harley Davidson, Hershey Foods, Honeywell, Mastercard, Merck, Mohawk Industries, Modelez International, Northrop Grumman, S&P Global, Southern, T-Mobile, Tractor Supply, U.S. Steel, Valero Energy, Xcel Energy & many other names.

Friday the week winds down with Employment Cost Index, Personal Income (nominal), Personal Spending (nominal), PCE Index, Core PCE Index, PCE (year-over-year) & Core PCE (year-over-year) at 8:30 am, the Chicago Business Barometer at 9:45 am & Final Consumer Sentiment numbers at 10 am.

Friday is more quiet on the earnings calls front, with Aon, Charter Communications, Colgate-Palmolive, Exxon Mobil, Newell Brands & Wisdom Tree, among others all reporting quarterly earnings.

Between the data being reported & the large amount of companies reporting earnings, this promises to be a volatile week.

See you back here next week!

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM, EWW, EWL, SMH, DFE, DPST, XOP, PGJ or UBT AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF added +0.23% over the past week as investors digested & reacted to earnings calls, CPI/PPI data & more, being less favorable than NASDAQ stocks for the week, but outperforming the small cap Russell 2000 index.

While Friday’s spinning top candle’s open & closing prices stayed near the top of Thursday’s candle’s range, it remained inside of it, signaling hesitance among investors at the $415/share level.

Their RSI is closer to overbought than neutral, with some room to consolidate & cool off & their MACD looks poised to roll over bearishly in the near-term.

Trading volumes have been about average compared to the year prior for SPY & I’ll be watching their nearest support/resistance levels in the coming week for clues as to the S&P’s next moves.

SPY has support at the $410.48, $409.91 (10 day moving average) & $407.06/share price levels,with resistance at the $416.72, $422.50 & $426.37/share price levels.

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF gained +1.7% over the past week, faring the best of the indexes for the week.

Their MACD crossed over bearishly mid-week & Friday’s spinning top candlestick is also similar to SPY’s, signaling investors are not certain about the $320/share price level on QQQ.

Their RSI is also above 60, with room to cool off in the near-term & their recent trading volumes have been about average compared to the year prior.

QQQ has support at the $317.86 (10 day moving average), $313.19 & $312.16/share price levels, which will be areas of interest to watch this week, with resistance overhead at the $321.63, $327.77 & $332.51/share price levels.

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF shed -0.13% over the past week, as investors were more interested in larger cap S&P 500 stocks & the tech heavy NASDAQ index last week.

They remained in a tight range all week, trading at about average volume compared to the year prior.

Their RSI is neutral & MACD is still bullish, but beginning to signal a loss of steam, which will make seeing their reactions to support levels this week important for figuring out where the index goes next.

IWM has support at the $176.32 (10 day moving average), $175.83, $175.77 & 175.13/share price levels, with resistance at the $179.71 (200 day moving average), $179.78, $179.92 & $182.24/share (50 day moving average) price levels.

Let’s dive into some of the best & worst performing sectors & geo-locations based on this week’s technical performance rating data!

South Korea (KORU), U.S. Home Construction (ITB), United Kingdom (EWU) & Energy (ERX) Are All Bullishly Leading The Markets

KORU, the Direxion Daily South Korea Bull 3x Shares ETF has lost -40.35% over the past year, but posted an impressive +111.18% rebound from their 52 week low in October of 2022 (ex-distributions for long-term holders).

Last week’s multiple gap up days have pushed their RSI to close to overbought conditions last week, with trading volumes being above average compared to the year prior.

Their MACD still looks strong, but with only 0.82% in the form of annual distribution for long-term share holders, it appears best to wait & see how they behave at support levels before entering or adding to a position (unless using options as insurance).

KORU has support at the $9.43, $9.25, $9.23 & $8.93 (10 day moving average), with resistance overhead at the $9.66, $9.96, $10.08 & $10.33/share price levels.

ITB, the iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF has climbed +24.33% over the past year, improving +46.54% from their 52 week low in June of 2022 (ex-distributions).

Their RSI had been relatively flat around 59 as they’ve been slowly building up from a consolidation period, but their MACD is not signaling near-term strength.

Add in their below average trading volumes of recent compared to the past year & it appears that market participants are not overly optimistic about ITB in the near-term.

With only a 0.73% cushion in the form of their distribution yield, unless using an options strategy it would be best to wait & see how they too behave at support levels in the coming weeks.

ITB has support at the $69.63 (10 day moving average), $68.55 (50 day moving average), $67.69 & $65.14/share price levels, with resistance at the $71.14 $73.66, $73.75 & $74.44/share price levels.

EWU, the iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF has gained +2.21% over the past year, with +32.37% returns from their 52 week low in September 2022 (ex-distributions).

Their RSI has just crossed out of overbought territory after a few weeks of strong price performance, but the lighter than average volume they’ve traded on recently shows there is still some reservations among investors in EWU.

While their MACD looks strong with the recent trend, it is beginning to also signal near-term consolidation, implying investors should be defensive.

EWU has a 3.13% distribution yield for long-term shareholders each year, but that will only provide protection from losses until the $32.52 price level, signaling it best to have an options strategy in place as insurance, or wait to enter after seeing their behavior at support levels.

EWU has support at the $33.18, $33.09, $33.05 (10 day moving average) & $32.35/share price level, with resistance at the $33.64 & $33.95/share price levels.

ERX, the Direxion Daily Energy Bull 2x Shares ETF has added +6.6% over the past year, gaining +65.3% since their 52 week low in July of 2022 (ex-distributions).

Their RSI is on the overbought end of neutral, after a gap up two weeks ago propelled them ~+9%, but their MACD is beginning to hint at signs of near-term weakness & consolidation on the horizon.

ERX’s volumes have been far below average recently, which also suggests that there is limited good sentiment left in the near-term.

While their 2.53% distribution yield will reward long-term shareholders with a cushion, their behavior at support levels will be critical for establishing when it is wisest to enter, unless hedging with options.

ERX has support at the $64.34, $63.37, $62.54 & $62.45/share (10 day moving average) price levels & resistance at the $64.77, $65.12, $67.05 & $67.35/share price level.

Real Estate (VNQ), Space (UFO), Israel (ISRA) & MidCap Dividends (DON) Are All Bearishly Lagging The Market

VNQ, the Vanguard Real Estate ETF has dropped -21.88% over the past year, losing -28.4% from their 52 week high in April of 2022, but rebounding +8.75% from their 52 week low in July of 2022 (ex-distributions).

Despite a recent rally in late March, VNQ’s MACD is signaling a bearish crossover is imminent & their RSI is trending bearishly away from the neutral level.

Recent trading volumes have been about average compared to the year prior, confirming the sentiment & while their distribution yield is 4.21%, this seems like a situation best to approach with caution in the near-term.

VNQ’s behavior at support levels will give clues into when an entry would be better (unless employing an options strategy), with support at the $79.69, $79.07, $77.16 & $76.86/share price levels & resistance at the $81.88, $82.13, $82.42 (10 day moving average) & $82.84.

UFO, the Procure Space ETF has lost -24.44% over the past year, which coincidentally was its high point in the past 52 weeks, but has rebounded +7.21% from their 52 week low in October of 2022 (ex-distributions).

Their MACD is beginning to indicate a bearish rollover, but their RSI is still neutral.

Volume sentiment is tough to gauge, as this is not the most particularly liquid security, & their most recent price movements have been to consolidate in the $18.50-19 range since the end of March.

UFO pays a 2.36% distribution for long-term holders, which provides some relief, but there seems to be uncertainty on their horizon as well, making insurance against losses (buying puts or selling calls) & an eye on support levels for entry imperative.

UFO has support at the $18.59, $18.02, $17.55 & $17.48/share price level, with resistance at the $18.79, $18.86 (10 day moving average), $19.07 & $19.08/share price levels.

ISRA, the VanEck Vectors Israel ETF has declined -21.63% over the past year, shedding -23.96% from their 52 week high in April of 2022, but scraping back +3.94% from their 52 week low in March of 2023 (ex-distributions).

They too have an MACD flashing warnings signs, after consolidating into a $35-35.50 price range over the past few weeks.

Recent trading volumes have been below average compared to the year prior & their RSI is bearishly declining, signaling investors should be cautious & wait to see how they behave at support levels before creating a new position or adding to an existing one.

With only a 1.38% distribution yield for long-term holders, there is limited cushion for protection unless you employ an options strategy defensively to protect/profit from near-term losses.

ISRA has support at the $34.79, $34.48 & $33.77/share price level, with resistance at the $35.30, $35.44 (10 day moving average), $35.45 & $35.62/share price levels.

DON, the Wisdom Tree MidCap Dividend Fund ETF has lost -4.6% over the past year, falling -10.81% from their 52 week high in April of 2022, while gaining back +8.94% since their 52 week low in September of 2022 (ex-distributions).

Their recent volumes have been below average & their RSI is neutral, but their MACD is beginning to show signs of bearishly rolling over.

DON pays a 2.97% distribution yield, which provides some cushion for a price consolidation, but they too are in a “wait & see” period to see how they behave against their support levels in the near-term.

DON has support at the $40.72 (10 day moving average), $40.15, $40.14 & $39.92/share price levels & resistance at the $41.11 (200 day moving average), $41.36, $41.73 & $41.85/share (50 day moving average) price levels.

Tying It All Together

Next week kicks off with the Empire State Manufacturing data at 8:30 am on Monday, followed by Homebuilder Confidence Index data at 10 am & at 12:45 pm Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin speaks.

Tuesday we hear Housing Starts & Building Permits data at 8:30 am, with Fed Governor Michelle Bowman speaking at 1 pm.

Wednesday is the Fed Beige Book at 2 pm & New York Fed President Williams speaking at 7 pm.

Things pick up the pace Thursday with Initial Jobless Claims, Continuing Jobless Claims & Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey data reported at 8:30 am, followed with Existing Homes Sales & U.S. Leading Economic Indicators at 10 am.

Thursday afternoon we hear from many Fed speakers, starting with Fed Governor Christopher Waller & Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester speaking at 12 pm, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan & Fed Governor Michelle Bowman speaking at 3 pm & at 5 pm Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic speaks.

Friday the week winds down with S&P Flash U.S. Services PMI & S&P Flash U.S. Manufacturing PMI data at 9:45 am & Fed Governor Lisa Cook speaking at 4:35 pm.

Additionally, there will be many notable earnings calls throughout the week including Monday’s Charles Schwab, J.B. Hunt Transport Services, M&T Bank & State Street reporting.

Tuesday’s calls include Bank of America, Netflix, BNY Mellon, Fulton Financial, Goldman Sachs, Lockheed Martin & Johnson & Johnson.

Wednesday we hear from Tesla, Abbott Labs, Baker Hughes, Discover Financial Services, IBM, Travelers, Morgan Stanley & Las Vegas Sands.

AT&T, Blackstone, American Express, Phillip Morris International, Seagate Technology & Rite Aid are set to report earnings on Thursday & on Friday we hear updates from Freeport-McMoran, SAP, Procter & Gamble, and more.

See you back here next week!

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACTS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM, KORU, ITB, EWU, ERX, VNQ, UFO, ISRA, or DON AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF lost -0.05% this past week, faring the best of the indexes that we review here this week, as investors sought safety in larger cap names.

Their RSI & MACD are beginning to show more signs of weakness compared to last week & this past week’s trading volumes subsided, signaling less confidence than last week’s jumpy but bullish week.

SPY has support at the $407.06, $406.62 & $403.87/share (10 day moving average) price levels, with resistance overhead at the $410.48, $411.92 & $416.72/share price levels.

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF dropped -0.9% last week; trailing the S&P 500, but being preferred over the Russell 2000 small cap names.

Their RSI is slightly more overbought than SPY’s & their MACD is beginning to curl over bearishly, with relatively average volume to confirm the sentiment.

QQQ has support at the $314.93 (10 day moving average), $313.19 & $312.16/share price levels, making for a decent zone before the next level at $309.30 & they have resistance at the $321.63, $327.77 & $332.51/share price levels.

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF lost -2.53% over the past week, as investors looked to flee smaller cap names & many pivoted into large cap, safer stocks.

Their RSI is below neutral trending towards oversold & their MACD is beginning to signal bearishness, after a month & change of above average trading volume to confirm sentiment.

IWM has support at the $172.67, $169.71 & $169.05/share price levels, with resistance at the $174.63, $174.93 (10 day moving average) & $175.13/share price levels.

Let’s dive into some of the best & worst performing sectors & geo-locations based on this week’s technical ratings data!

Euro STOXX 50 (FEZ), Argentina (ARGT), Aerospace & Defense (DFEN) & Fundamental International Large Companies (FNDF) Are All Bullishly Leading The Market

FEZ, the SPDR EURO STOXX 50 ETF has gained +16.81% over the past year, rebounding +50.02% from their 52 week low on 10/13/2022 (ex-distributions).

Their RSI is approaching overbought conditions at 64 & their MACD is beginning to show signs of weakness, as they’ve consolidated after a gap up 2 weeks ago.

Recent volumes have been below average compared to the year prior & their most recent candlestick configuration is signaling to proceed with caution in the near-term.

While their distribution yield provides a 2.7% cushion to long-term holders, unless employing an options strategy for protection, it would be wise to wait & see how they behave around their recent support levels before entering or adding to a position.

FEZ has support at the $44.36, $44.33 (10 day moving average) & $43.34/share price levels, which all appear below the aforementioned gap, with the only overhead resistance from the past 52 weeks occurring at the $45.46/share price level.

ARGT, the Global X MSCI Argentina ETF has climbed +10.91% over the past year & has grown +64.28% from their 52 week low on 7/14/2022 (ex-distributions).

Their RSI is neutral at 50.63, with their MACD signaling a near-term decline is on the horizon.

Recent trading volumes have been about average compared to the year prior, although their volume levels have been quite volatile over that time period & their Tuesday gap down has led to a range of uncertainty.

While they offer a 2.17% distribution yield for long-term holders annually, unless using a long/short strategy for protection against the downside, it looks best to wait to enter or add to a position until their price has further consolidated.

ARGT has support at the $37.09, $35.02 & $32.95/share price levels, with resistance at the $38.31, $38.41 (10 day moving average) & $38.83/share (50 day moving average) price levels.

DFEN, the Direxion Daily Aerospace & Defense Bull ETF has lost -9.56% over the past year, but has posted an impressive +80.04% comeback from their 52 week low on 9/29/2022 (ex-distributions).

Like ARGT, DFEN also has a neutral RSI at 50.57 & a MACD signaling that there is a near-term price correction on the horizon.

With trading volumes for 2023 being very low compared to the year prior, there is still uncertainty among market participants as to the value of DFEN’s shares.

With a modest 0.67% distribution yield for long-term shareholders they are another name worth following to wait for a more opportune entry point for.

DFEN has support at the $20.40 (10 day moving average), $20.25, $19.88/share price levels, as they try to break out & above their $20.76, $20.80 (50 day moving average) & $21.34/share resistance levels.

FNDF, the Schwab Fundamental International Large Company Index ETF has gained +1.97% over the past year, with a 26.64% recovery since their 52 week low of 10/13/2022 (ex-distributions).

While their 10 & 50 day moving averages are primed to cross bullishly in the coming week, their MACD is signaling near-term losses & consolidation.

With an RSI approaching the overbought end of neutral & roughly average volume, minus one of the gap up days recently, there still looks to be uncertainty in the near-term & their past week’s candlesticks are not particularly appealing.

With only 2.87% of protection to the downside via distribution yields for long-term shareholders, this one is worth watching for a more favorable entry-point, with opportunities to build profits with a long/short strategy that can be applied to new shares in the future.

FNDF has support at the $31.07 (50 day moving average), $31.03 & $31.01 (10 day moving average) price levels, with resistance at the $31.67, $31.86 & $32.11/share price levels.

Uranium (URA), SuperDividends (FDIV), Retail (XRT) & Global Timber & Forestry (WOOD) Are All Bearishly Lagging The Market

URA, the Global X Uranium ETF has dropped -29.5% over the past year, losing -33.06% from their 52 week high in April of 2022, but have recovered +8.05% since their 52 week low on 7/6/2022 (ex-distributions).

Their MACD is beginning to show bearish signals for the near-term, as their RSI enters into the oversold end of the neutral range at 39.43.

With lower than average recent trading volumes & the impending death cross of their 50 & 200 day moving averages, there appears to be more near-term pain in store for URA.

With only a 0.8% distribution yield annually for long-term holders, this will require a wait & see approach about an entry-point after observing how it behaves at support, but some insurance on the short side is worth looking into.

URA has support at the $19.06, $18.95 & $18.46/share price level, with resistance overhead at the $19.12, $19.35 & $19.40/share (10 day moving average) price levels.

SDIV, the Global X SuperDividend ETF has lost -6.14% over the past year, falling -7.04% from their 52 week high in April of 2022, but has gained +3.97% from their 52 week low on 10/21/2022 (ex-distributions).

Recent trading volumes have been about average compared to the year prior & their RSI is neutral.

SDIV’s MACD is beginning to signal short-term weakness & their behavior at their 10 day moving average will be important to see how it holds up as a support level.

Despite having an 11.41% distribution yield for long-term holders, that only covers losses up to $20.10/share, which based on the last 52 weeks of support points looks risky (current lowest is $20.76/share), making this name another to approach with caution or defensively.

SDIV has support at the $22.57, $22.56 (10 day moving average) & $21.77/share price levels, with resistance at the $22.81, $22.94 & $23.02/share price levels.

XRT, the SPDR S&P Retail ETF shed -16.06% over the past year, losing -22.41% from their 52 week high in April 2022, but has reclaimed +11.19% since their 52 week low of 9/30/2022 (ex-distributions).

Recent trading volumes have been about average compared to the year prior, with their RSI trending bearishly & their MACD is looking to roll over bearishly in the coming trading sessions.

With a 2.29% distribution yield, there is limited downside protection making it risky to be eyeing an entry or consider adding to an existing position & it would be more prudent to wait & see how they interact with support levels, or play a long/short defensive play while waiting on their price to become less volatile.

XRT has support at the $61.46, $61.04 & $60.39/share price levels, with resistance at the $61.79. $62.06 & $62.88/share price levels.

WOOD, the iShares Global Timber & Forestry ETF has fallen -17.47% over the past year, losing -24.64% since their 52 week high in April 2022, but gaining +11.46% since their 52 week low on 9/26/2022 (ex-distributions).

Trading volumes have been much lower than average compared to the year prior recently, after the death cross of the 50 & 200 day moving averages earlier in the week, showing traders aren’t sure of their proper valuation currently.

Their RSI & MACD appear ready to turn bearish, after Thursday’s +0.4% bounce helped keep them from falling more aggressively.

WOOD pays a 2.31% distribution yield to long-term holders, but that will not provide adequate protection against losses, making it advisable to watch how they interact with support levels & or play defensively while looking for an opportune entry point.

WOOD has support at the $70.81, $68.75 & $63.70/share price levels, with resistance overhead at the $71.47, $72.08 & $72.22/share price levels.

Tying It All Together

This upcoming week features many interesting bits of data being reported.

Monday we get Wholesale Inventories data at 10 am, with New York Fed President Williams speaking at 4:15 pm.

Tuesday at 6 am we get the NFIB Optimism Index, followed by Chicago Fed President Goolsbee speaking at 1:30 pm, Philadelphia Fed President Harker speaking at 6:30 pm & at 7:30 pm Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari speaks.

Wednesday will be the most eagerly anticipated day, with Consumer Price Index data, Core CPI, CPI Y-o-Y & Core CPI Y-o-Y all reported at 8:30 am, followed by Richmond Fed President Barkin speaking at 9:00 am, San Francisco Fed President Daly speaking at 12 pm & at 2 pm we get the Treasury Budget & FOMC minutes reported.

Thursday will also be important, with Producer Price Index, Core PPI, PPI Y-o-Y, Initial Jobless Claims & Continuing Jobless Claims all being reported at 8:30 am.

Friday will also be a busy day, with US Retail Sales, Retail Sales minus Autos, Import Price Index, & Import Prices minus Fuel being reported at 8:30 am

At 8:45 am Fed Governor Waller speaks, followed by Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization data at 9:15 am & Business Inventories & Consumer Sentiment reports out at 10 am.

It promises to be an interesting week ahead – see you back here next week!

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN FEZ, ARGT, DFEN, FNDF, URA, SDIV, XRT or WOOD AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF gained +3.45% this past week, with trading volumes falling more back in line with the average over the past year.

Their MACD is very bullish, but their 62.89 RSI is approaching overbought territory.

Resistance after the past week’s rally is at $410.48, $416.72 & $422.50, with support at the $407.06, $406.62 & $401.76/share price level.

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF added +3.23% over the past week, with volumes also returning more to the average level for the past 52 weeks.

At 68, QQQ’s RSI is almost overbought, although their MACD is still showing bullish signals.

QQQ has support at the $313.93, $312.16 & $310.83 (10 day moving average), with overhead resistance at the $327.77, $331.51 & $338.56/share price levels.

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF gained +3.85% last week, showing smaller cap stocks were favored compared to larger cap names.

They bucked the trend & has above average volume, during a volatile, but successful week.

Their RSI is neutral at 50.43 & MACD is bullish, but their 200 day moving average is 0.52% away & will be an interesting resistance point to watch for more insight into their future performance.

IWM has support at the $175.83, $175.13 & $174.63/share price levels, with resistance at the $179.33 (200 day moving average), $179.92 & $184.07/share price levels.

Let’s dive into the week’s report.

Global Gold Miners (RING), Europe (EURL), North American Tech (IGM) & Global Comm Services (IXP) Are All Bullishly Leading The Market

RING, the iShares MSCI Global Gold Miners ETF has lost -13.74% over the past year, but has recovered +51.72% (ex-distributions) since their 52 week low in September 2022.

Their RSI is approaching overbought at 66.87 & their MACD has begun curling over, signaling a cool down period in the near-term.

Given that their distribution yield is only 2.03% for long-term shareholders, it may be wisest to wait to see how they behave at their next test of support or trade an options strategy rather than buying long shares into uncertainty.

RING has support at the $24.53 (10 day moving average), $23.50, $23.38 & $23.37 (50 day moving average), with resistance overhead at the $26.15, $26.36, $26.68 & $28.58/share price levels.

EURL, the Direxion Daily FTSE Europe Bull 3x Shares ETF has lost -25% over the past 52 weeks, but has rebounded +128.04% (ex-distributions) since their low in October of 2022.

Their MACD is still bullish, while their RSI is neutral & recent trading volumes have been about average compared to the year prior.

After Thursday & Friday’s candlesticks & the back to back gap up day mid-week EURL should also be approached with caution, as their 1.68% distribution yield will only provide so much safety from a near-term shakeup in price.

EURL has support at the $21.15, $20.83 (50 day moving average), $20.74 & $19.95/share price levels, with resistance at the $21.83, $22.52, $22.73 & $23.08/share price levels, which are the key areas to be watching their behavior at currently.

IGM, the iShares North American Tech ETF has lost -14.12% over the past year, but has climbed +30.21% (ex-distributions) from their low of October 2022.

Their RSI is approaching overbought conditions at 67.49, as their MACD begins to show signals of exhausting.

Recent trading volumes have been below average compared to the year prior & their 0.48% distribution yield will not provide much cushion for safety, making IGM another candidate for options trading while waiting for their price to stabilize.

IGM has support levels to keep an eye on at the $336.83, $334.48, $328.38 (10 day moving average) & $323.42/share price level, with resistance at the $349.47, $351.10, $352.90 & $359.78/share levels.

IXP, the iShares Global Comm Services ETF dropped -14.8% over the past year, but has gained +29.05% (ex-distributions) since their low in November of 2022.

Their RSI is also approaching the overbought level & their MACD is beginning to show signals of losing momentum.

While long-term holders will receive 1.22% annually in the form of distributions, patchy low trading volumes raise concerns about IXP’s strength in the near-term & signal to hold off on a long-term position entry.

IXP has support at the $63.74, $63.39, $63.25 & $62.61 (10 day moving average) price levels, with resistance at the $64.33, $64.43, $65.84 & $65.98/share price levels.

Banks (KBE), Genomics Immunology and Healthcare (IDNA), Mortgage Real Estate (REM) & Brazil (BRZU) Are All Bearishly Lagging The Market

KBE, the SPDR S&P Bank ETF has lost -30.32% over the past year, losing -30.49% from the high of April 2022, but reclaiming +7.89% (ex-distributions) since their recent low.

Their RSI has recently recovered from being in oversold territory but remains on the oversold end of neutral after suffering sharp declines in March 2023 & MACD has crossed over bullishly while the price has consolidated over the past month.

Recent trading volumes have been very high compared to the year prior, and their 3.42% annual distribution yield will provide some protection against loss for long-term holders, but the price may still require more time to settle down making any near-term moves in the name without options protection unwise.

KBE has support at the $36.54 (10 day moving average), $34.83 & $34.33/share price levels, with resistance at the $37.70, $38.23 & $41.36/share price levels.

IDNA, the iShares Genomics Immunology & Healthcare ETF has lost -33.07% over the past year, dropping -35.22% from their high in April 2022, but has reclaimed +5.34% (ex-distributions) from their low of March 2023.

Their RSI is approaching neutral again, while their MACD is still bullish, but recent trading volumes have been very light compared to the year prior.

IDNA’s 0.58% distribution yield will not provide much protection for investors, so waiting to see how their price behaves around support/resistance areas will be imperative to find the most opportune entry point.

IDNA has support at the $22.94 & $22.09/share price levels, with resistance at the $23.55, $24.20 & $24.76/share price levels.

REM, the iShares Mortgage Real Estate Capped ETF has lost -26.34% over the past 52 weeks, losing -27.56% since their high in April 2022, while regaining +16.17% since their low in October 2022 (ex-distributions).

With a bullish MACD, REM’s RSI has recovered to just below neutral levels after their price slid most of the past 2 months.

While long-term holders receive an 11.55% distribution yield, their shaky recent trading volumes show that there is still uncertainty around where to value these shares at & it would be wisest to approach with caution.

REM has support at the $21.78, $21.13, $20.94 & $20.85 (10 day moving average)price levels, with resistance at the $22.11, $22.24, $22.60 & $22.87/share price levels.

BRZU, the Direxion Daily Brazil Bull 2x Shares ETF has lost -43.75% over the past year, shedding -48.5% since their high of April 2022 & has gained +20.47% (ex-distributions) since their low in July 2022.

Their MACD is beginning to show signs of waning enthusiasm, as their RSI is is re-approaching neutral, which when paired with their below average recent trading volumes is a good reason to wait & see how they interact with their nearest support/resistance levels before making an investment in them.

While their distribution yield is 5.06%, that is not enough protection to justify entry into a long-term position here.

BRZU has support at the $62.94, $62.13, $59.89 & $59.19 (10 day moving average) price levels, with resistance overhead at the $63.33, $64.14, $65.38 & $67.47/share price levels.

Tying It All Together

This week we hit the pavement running Monday, with St. Louis Fed President Bullard speaking at 8:30 am, followed by S&P final U.S. Manufacturing PMI at 9:45 am, ISM Manufacturing & Construction Spending data at 10 am & closing out with Fed. Governor Cook speaking at 4:15 pm.

Factory Orders & Job Openings data get reported on Tuesday at 10 am & at 6 pm Cleveland Fed President Mester speaks.

On Wednesday we get the ADP Employment data at 8:15 am, with U.S. Trade Balance data at 8:30 am, S&P Final U.S. Services PMI data at 9:45 am & the ISM Services report at 10 am.

Thursday kicks off with Initial Jobless Claims & Continuing Jobless Claims data at 8:30 am, with St. Louis Fed President Bullard Speaking at 10 am.

We close out with the US Unemployment Report, US Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Wages & Average Hourly Wages Y-o-Y at 8:30 am on Friday, followed by Consumer Credit data at 3 pm.

See you back here next week!

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM, RING, EURL, IGM, IXP, KBE, IDNA, REM or BRZU AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF gained +1.46% this past week, lagging the performance of the NASDAQ names.

Their RSI is neutral & recent trading volumes have been above average compared to the year prior.

SPY’s MACD is showing signs of slowing down, with signals of a downtrend from Tuesday on last week.

SPY has support at the $392.02 (10 day moving average), $389.10 (200 day moving average), $388.28 & $387.13/share price levels, with overhead resistance at the $398.27, $399.14 (50 day moving average), $401.76 & $402.49/share price levels.

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF closed +1.97% higher this week vs. last, outperforming the large caps of the S&P 500, as well as the smaller cap Russell 2000 stocks for the week.

As a result, their RSI is on the more overbought end of neutral (62) & their MACD is bullish, but beginning to show signs of weakness as it rolls over & recent trading volumes have been about average compared to the year prior.

QQQ has support at the $309.30, $304.22, $304.00 (10 day moving average) & $303.53/share price levels, with resistance at the $312.16, $313.19, $315.25 & $327.77/share price levels.

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF gained +0.69% this past week, as small cap names did not enjoy the same strength as their S&P 500 & NASDAQ peers.

Their RSI is on the oversold end of neutral at 38, as their MACD is beginning to righten after their freefall at the beginning of March 2023.

Trading volumes for IWM have been very high this past month, which should advice market participants to be careful.

IWM has support at the $169.71, $169.05, $166.80 & $166.21/share price levels, with resistance at the $172.67, $172.93 (10 day moving average),$174.63 & $174.71/share.

Let’s dive into some of the best & worst performing sectors & geo-locations based on this week’s technical rating data results!

Semiconductors (SMH), U.S. Technology (IYW), Silver Miners (SIL) & Japan Small Cap Dividends (DFJ) Are All Bullishly Leading The Markets

SMH, the VanEck Vectors Semiconductors ETF has lost -6.73% over the past year, but has reclaimed 54.23% (ex-distributions) since their 52 week low in October of 2022.

Their RSI is approaching the overbought end of neutral at 59, with recent trading volumes being slightly below average compared to the year prior.

Their MACD is beginning to signal that there may be some cooling off to come in the near-term, as it turns bearish, and their 0.94% distribution for long-term holders will not provide much cushion for investors.

The presence of both a shooting star & hanging man candlestick in last week’s chart signals that unless you’re using an options strategy for protection to wait & see how it behaves at its support levels.

SMH has support at the $250.42, $249.79 (10 day moving average), $249.56 & $246.32/share price levels, with resistance overhead at the $255.64, $261.92 & $267.30/share price levels.

IYW, the iShares U.S. Technology ETF has lost -12.5% over the past year, but has rebounded +29.98% (ex-distributions) since their 52 week low in October of 2022.

Their RSI is approaching overbought, and recent volumes have been above average compared to the year prior.

Their MACD is beginning to show signs of waning enthusiasm & their distribution only offers a modest 0.49% cushion for protection from losses for long-term holders, suggesting that in the near-term this is a better idea for an options trade than a long-term investment.

IYW has support at the $89.24, $88.25, $87.72 (10 day moving average), $87.39 & $87.22/share price level, with resistance at the $90.27, $91.24, $94.25 & $94.65/share price levels.

SIL, the Global X Silver Miners ETF has lost 20.6% over the past year, but has bounced back +38.77% (ex-distributions) from their lowest point of September 2022.

Their RSI is on the overbought end of neutral, with recent trading volumes being average compared to the year prior.

Their MACD is beginning to look exhausted, and their distribution only provides 0.21% of an annualized cushion, signaling that it is best to see how Friday’s doji candlestick plays out & whether a morning star pattern is formed or not (signaling a bearish reversal).

While waiting, trading options can generate profits that can be parlayed into buying long-shares once things become more clear.

SIL has support at the $28.92, $28.59 (50 day moving average), $28.45 (10 day moving average) & $27.81/share price level, with resistance levels at $29.78, $29.79, $31.38 & $31.90/share.

DFJ, the WisdomTree Japan SmallCap Dividend Fund has gained +0.99% over the past year, has also climbed +21.38% (ex-distributions) since its low in October 2022.

Their MACD looks poised for a bullish crossover in the near-term, although their past couple of candlesticks will need to maintain their momentum & avoid filling the gap from last Thursday.

Recent trading volumes have been above average compared to the year prior & their RSI is neutral.

DFJ pays a 2.54% annual distribution, which will shield long-term holders from some losses in volatile environments & they have options which can be used for additional downside protection.

DFJ has support at $64.61 (50 day moving average), $64.45 (10 day moving average), $63.55 & $63.39/share & overhead resistance at the $66.05 & $66.68/share price levels from the past 52 weeks.

World Equities (URTH), Risk Parity (RPAR), Pharmaceuticals (PPH) & Sweden (EWD) Are All Bearishly Lagging The Markets

URTH, the iShares MSCI World ETF has lost -10.15% over the past year, falling -12.09% (ex-distributions) from their 52 week high in April 2022.

Recent trading volumes for URTH have been below average & their RSI is neutral at 51.

Their MACD is slightly bullish, but last week’s candlesticks signal that there is still a downtrend.

Long-term holders will receive 1.61% of distribution as a cushion from losses, but unless trading options, it would be wisest to wait for URTH to get on more stable footing before investing.

URTH has support at the $112.56 (10 day moving average), $110.49 (200 day moving average), $110.18 & $109.48/share price levels, with resistance at the $113.62, $114.33, $115.12 (50 day moving average) & $115.20/share price levels.

RPAR, the RPAR Risk Parity ETF has dropped -15.48% over the past year, losing -16.03% (ex-distributions) from their 52 week high achieved in March 2022.

Their recent trading volumes have been below average & their RSI is neutral, signaling that investors are not certain as to where they value RPAR’s shares.

Their MACD looks to be losing speed, which may bring near-term entry points for investors who don’t mind losing beyond their 3.85% annual distribution.

For those that do mind, they are optionable, which can be used to generate profits while waiting for a more appropriate entry-point.

RPAR has support at $19.25 (10 day moving average), $19.05, $19.01 & $18.81/share, with resistance at $19.42, $19.45 (50 day moving average), $19.54 & $19.61/share.

PPH, the VanEck Vectors Pharmaceutical ETF has lost -3.15% over the past year, with a -9.41% (ex-distributions) loss since their high in April 2022.

Their RSI is approaching neutral again & recent trading volumes have been far below average compared to the year prior.

PPH has a 1.59% distribution for long-term share holders, and has options that can be traded while waiting for a more secure entry point.

PPH has support at the $74.64 (10 day moving average), $74.54 (200 day moving average), $73.64 & $73.40/share price levels, with resistance at the $76.19, $76.89 (50 day moving average), $77.59 & $78.19/share price levels.

EWD, the iShares MSCI Sweden ETF has lost -11.71% of its value over the past year, shedding -14.93% since its high of March 2022.

Friday’s gap down will prove interesting, as their MACD was on the verge of crossing over bullishly, but with low trading volumes it is hard to gauge investor sentiment on the move.

Their RSI is on the oversold end of neutral at 43, and there looks to be more near-term losses on the horizon, which can present entry point opportunities for long-term investors.

However, unless their 3.57% distribution is the only protection from loss that you require, it would be wisest to wait & see how they behave at their support levels.

EWD has support at the $32.47, $32.13 (200 day moving average), $31.97 & $31.96/share price levels, with resistance overhead at the $33.68 (10 day moving average), $34.04, $34.05 & $34.71/share price levels.

Tying It All Together

This week we have lots of data coming in, with the exception of Monday which will be a quiet day minus Fed. Governor Jefferson speaking at 5pm.

Tuesday will be busy, with Advanced U.S. Trade Balance In Goods, Advance Retail Inventories & Advance Wholesale inventories at 8:30 am, followed by the S&P Case-Schiller Home Price Index & FHFA Home Index Price data at 9 am & U.S. Consumer Confidence & Fed Gov. Barr testifying before the Senate about banks at 10 am.

Wednesday brings us Pending US Home Sales data at 10 am, which will also be when Barr testifies to the House on banks.

Thursday features GDP (2nd revision), Initial Jobless Claims & Continuing Jobless Claims at 8:30 am, with Boston Fed President Collins speaking at 12:45 pm.

Friday too will be busy, with 8:30 am having a line up featuring Person Income (nominal), Personal Spending (nominal), PCE Index, Core PCE Index, PCE (Y-o-Y) & Core PCE (Y-o-Y) at 8:30, followed by the Chicago Business Barometer at 9:45 am.

At 10 am Friday the UMich Consumer Sentiment (final) data will be released & at 3:05 the NY Fed President Williams speaks, as well as Fed Governors Cook & Waller speaking in the evening (5:45 & 10 pm).

See you back here next week!

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SMH, IYW, SIL, DFJ, URTH, RPAR, PPH, or EWD AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF gained +1.06% over the past week, as a week dominated by bank crisis headlines & data points provided a volatile trading week for stocks.

The individual candlesticks of the week look as though the market spent much of the week expecting a dovish Federal Reserve announcement this upcoming week, only to be brought back to reality Friday where Thursday’s high’s were not touched.

SPY’s RSI is between neutral & oversold at 44, and all eyes will be on their MACD, as it has flattened out & looks ready to cross over bullishly next week, after a week of heavier than average trading volume.

SPY has support at the $389.38 (200 day moving average),$388.28, $387.13 & $383.60/share price levels, which will be important to watch this week.

Their nearest resistance levels are at the $391.81 (10 day moving average), $398.27, $398.35 (50 day moving average) & $401.76/share price levels.

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF that tracks that NASDAQ gained +6.26%, as traders & investors adopted a more dovish Federal reserve sentiment which would benefit the technology heavy NASDAQ, while others piled in to add additional momentum leading to its outperformance of the other index ETFs this week.

While Friday’s candlestick’s shadow went above Thursday’s high, it does not show much strength & conviction behind the week’s movement.

QQQ’s RSI is between neutral & overbought at 59, and their MACD bullishly crossed over during the past week, trading on above average volume compared to the year prior.

QQQ has support at $304.69, $304, $297.45 (10 day moving average) & $296.17/share, with resistance at $309.78, $312.64 & $313.68/share.

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF lost -2.81%, as small caps were outperformed by larger cap stocks.

Their trading volumes were higher than average compared to the year prior, and their RSI is about to slip into oversold territory at 31 as their MACD is in freefall downward.

IWM’s support levels of $170.38, $170.34, $169.67 & $167.42 will be important to watch this upcoming week & their resistance levels overhead are the $173.31, $175.27, $175.78 & $176.48/share price levels.

Let’s dive into some of the top & bottom performing sectors & geo-locations based on this week’s technical rating data!

Turkey (TUR), Technology (XLK), Video Games & eSports (ESPO) & Spain (EWP) Are All Bullishly Leading The Market

TUR, the iShares MSCI Turkey ETF has gained +85.74% over the past year (ex-distributions), and is +98.25% from their low in July 2022.

Long-term holders receive an extra 2.08% as additional distribution yield if they hold the ETF for one year.

Recent trading volumes for TUR have been volatile, after experiencing two gap ups in February 2023 & fluttering around in consolidation for most of the time since & their RSI is neutral.

Their recent bearish MACD crossover signals that there will be further consolidation in the near-term, which provides opportunities for long-entries or for options traders to profit from volatility in their price.

TUR has support at the $34.54, $34.49 (50 day moving average), $34.21 & $32.11/share price levels, with overhead resistance at the $36.15, $37.08, $37.17 & $38.17 (52 week high)/share price levels.

XLK, the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund ETF has lost -4.33% from one year ago, but has rebounded +27.35% since their low of October 2022 (ex-distributions).

Their recent trading volumes have been above average compared to the year prior, but their RSI is approaching overbought territory as it draws nearer to 70.

XLK recently had a bullish MACD crossover, but investors & traders would be wise to wait to see how they react to the $144.59 resistance level before entering a position, as their 0.9% annual distribution yield does not provide much cushion for support.

There are opportunities for options traders to profit from the price movements in XLK during this time.

XLK has support at the $142.72, $142.30, $139.71 (10 day moving average) & $138.93/share price levels, with resistance at the $144.59, $147.96 & $151.05/share levels.

ESPO, the VanEck Vectors Video Gaming & eSports ETF has lost -13.18% over the past year, but has bounced back +30.82% since their low in October 2022 (ex-distributions).

Their RSI is neutral & recent trading volumes have been below average compared to the previous year, but they have had a bullish MACD crossover within the past week.

With a 1.13% distribution yield as a cushion, long positions may be best to wait on establishing until we see how they react to their resistance levels, but options traders have opportunities for near-term profits.

ESPO has support at the $49.38, $49.08, $49.00 & $48.30 (10 day moving average) price levels, with resistance overhead at the $50.32, $51.12, $51.32 & $52.53/share price levels.

EWP, the iShares MSCI Spain Capped ETF has gained +5.96% over the past year, gaining +35.83% from their low in October 2022 (ex-distributions).

After a gap down earlier this past week their RSI is dove down to nearing oversold territory (<30 level) & their MACD has turned bearish, all on lighter than average trading volumes.

EWP offers a 2.88% distribution yield for long-term holders annually, but unless trading options, it appears best to wait & see how they behave around their other, older gaps & support levels in wake of this recent decline.

EWP has support at the $25.77, $25.65, $25.50 & $24.68/share price levels, with resistance at the $26.85 (50 day moving average), $26.89 (10 day moving average) & $27.97/share price levels.

Real Estate (DRN), Cannabis (POTX), Energy (ERX) & South Korea (KORU) Are All Bearishly Lagging The Market

DRN, the Direxion Daily Real Estate Bull 3x Shares ETF has dropped -61.31% over the past year, falling -67.97% from their 52 week high in April of 2022 (ex-distributions).

Their recent trading volumes have been above average & their RSI is approaching oversold territory.

DRN’s MACD is beginning to flatten out due to a week of consolidation after their most recent move downwards, and they offer a 3.01% distribution yield for long-term holders.

However, some addition protection from put options may be wise to have in the near-term.

DRN has support at the $8.50, $8.49, $7.83 & $7.33/share price levels, with overhead resistance at the $9.09, $9.23, $9.31 & $9.55 (10 day moving average).

POTX, the Global X Cannabis ETF has lost -67.26% over the past year, including a -74.57% from their 52 week high in March of 2022 (ex-distributions).

They’ve seen a steady decline over the past year & as a result their RSI is in oversold territory.

Their MACD has also been in a smooth downtrend since the beginning of February, with trading volumes being relatively average compared to the year prior.

POTX only has support at the $9.00 price level for the past 52 weeks, and while they offer a 3.93% distribution yield as a cushion to long-term holders of 1 year+, it would be wisest to trade options until there is more price stability, using the profits to enter a long-term position once they’ve stabilized more.

POTX has resistance at the $9.72 (10 day moving average), $10.43, $11.34 (50 day moving average) & $11.65/share price levels.

ERX, the Direxion Daily Energy Bull 2x Shares ETF has lost -0.46% over the past year, dropping -36.55% from their 52 week high in June 2022 (ex-distributions).

A decline throughout March 2023 has led their RSI into oversold territory, with their MACD also being in a downtrend.

Recent trading volumes have been below average, signaling that there is still uncertainty around their value & there will likely be more near-term volatility to come.

ERX’s 2.98% distribution yield provides some downside protection for long-term holders, but given where their support levels are in relation to gaps that need to be filled on the way down, the best approach to this name in the near-term is using an options strategy.

ERX has support at the $48.21, $47.96, $46.37 & $44.36/share price levels, with resistance at the $51.16, $51.41, $51.80& $53.62/share price levels.

KORU, the Direxion Daily South Korea Bull 3x Shares ETF has lost -56.47% over the past year, dropping -59.73% since their 52 week high in March of 2022.

They’ve been declining for the better part of Q1 2023 on higher than average volumes compared to the year prior.

KORU’s RSI is midway between neutral & oversold, with their MACD about to make a bullish crossover, but resistance overhead signals that this may not be a sustainable upside move.

With limited cushion from their 0.47% distribution yield, waiting for a more solid entry time or using options to navigate the volatility would be the best strategy here.

KORU has support at the $7.70 (also their price level), $7.57, $7.50, $7.39 & $7.17/share price levels, with resistance at the $7.86, $7.89 (10 day moving average), $8.00 & $8.08/share price levels.

Tying It All Together

The week ahead promises to be interesting, mostly due to the Federal Reserve’s Interest-Rate Decision on Wednesday at 2pm.

Monday has no major data points to be reported, followed by Existing Home Sales at 10 am on Tuesday.

Wednesday we also get Fed Chairman Powell’s Press Conference after the interest-rate decision announcement.

Thursday we will head U.S. Current Account Data, as well as Initial Jobless Claims & Continuing Jobless Claims at 8:30 am, followed by New Home Sales data at 10 am.

Friday wraps up the week with Durable Goods data at 8:30 am, as well as S&P Global Flash U.S. Services & Manufacturing PMI data at 9:45 am.

We’ll still be dealing with the fallout of the SVB collapse, as well as how it is impacting other smaller banks, as well as getting more insight into the Credit Suisse situation.

It all promises to be nothing short of interesting.

See you back here next week!

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM, TUR, XLK, ESPO, EWP, DRN, POTX, ERX or KORU AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***

Last week was a volatile week for stocks across the board, fueled mostly by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell’s testimonies to the House & Senate, as well as employment data & the fallout of Silicon Valley Bank’s failure news.

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF lost -4.52% over the past week, starting the week off with a shooting star candlestick on Monday to initiate the fall.

Their RSI is nearing oversold & their MACD is looking very bearish, but Friday’s volume spike that eclipses the rest of the year’s volume readings signals more near-term unrest for investors.

Previously in the year, the nearest volume readings for SPY came in during the large declines of May & June 2022.

Investors & traders need exercise caution in SPY in the near-term, with their current nearest support levels being $385.06, $380.18 & $377.73, leaving room open for new gap downs this week.

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF that tracks the NASDAQ dropped -3.71% last week, faring slightly better than SPY, but still signaling the same technical weakness over the course of the week.

Given the NASDAQ is more susceptible to tremors caused by interest rates than SPY, they will likely see more outflows in the coming week as we get the CPI & PPI data coming in.

Their RSI is a bit closer to neutral, but their MACD is also showing bearishness to continue on the horizon.

With the difference between QQQ & SPY’s RSI, there is more room for QQQ to fall before triggering a technical oversold signal, which may be a factor in this coming week.

QQQ has support at the $288.37, $283.92, $283.50 & $283.20/share price levels, with resistance at the $289.32 (200 day moving average), $289.57 (50 day moving average), $294.74 & $295.51/share price levels.

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF fell -8% this past week, showing that smaller cap names were hurt the worst by the week’s volatility.

Their volume was much more in line with the larger cap stocks SPY’ compared to the NASDAQ.

However, their RSI is already in oversold territory & their MACD is heading in bearish decline.

IWM has support at the $175.78 $175.36, $175.27 & $173.31/share price levels, with the next resistance points falling at $180.45 (200 day moving average), $180.59, $184.75 & $186.64/share.

Let’s dive into some of this week’s top & bottom performing sectors & geo-locations based on our technical data ratings for ETFs!

Semiconductors (USD), European Hedged Equity (HEDJ), U.S. Infrastructure Development (PAVE) & Precious Metals (DBP) Are All Bullishly Leading The Market

USD, the ProShares Ultra Semiconductors ETF has dropped -33.4% over the past year, but has recovered +98.5% since the lows of October 2022 (excluding distributions collected from their modest 0.21% yield for long-term holders).

Recent volumes have been below average compared to the year prior, their RSI is neutral & their MACD is slightly bearish after recent consolidation over the last two months.

Their distribution yield doesn’t provide much cushion at 0.21%, making options the most appealing way to play defensively in USD.

USD has support at the $22.93, $22.52, $22.24 & $22.18/share price level (with a zone of decent support in the $21-22 range), with overhead resistance at the $23.79 (10 day moving average), $25.45, $25.59 & $25.75/share price levels.

HEDJ, the WisdomTree Europe Hedged Equity Fund ETF has gained +15.61% over the past year, while climbing +29.3% (ex-distributions) since their lows in September of 2022.

They have been on a major uptrend since October 2022, with their recent trading volume being about average compared to the year prior’s volatile volumes.

HEDJ’s RSI is neutral, but their MACD is showing bearish signals in the near-term.

Their only resistance levels from the past 52 weeks are the $80.93 (10 day moving average) & $82.26/share price level, and their support levels are at $77.69, $74.12 & $74.09, signaling that there is a lot of room for HEDJ to cool off in the near-term.

With so little nearby support in the last 52 weeks, this appears to be a name to wait until it has cooled off a bit before investing, as their 2.49% annual distribution can only provide so much protection.

Traders can capitalize on their consolidation & new range establishing using put options, which the profits from can in turn be applied to purchasing additional long-term shares.

PAVE, the Global X U.S. Infrastructure Development ETF has gained +4.52% over the past year, gaining +27.5% since their lows of June 2022 (ex-distributions).

Their past month’s trading volumes have been above average compared to the year prior, but their RSI is approaching oversold after falling 4 of the last 5 sessions.

PAVE’s MACD is signaling more near-term weakness, and their distribution yield provides little cushion at 0.79% annually.

PAVE has support at the $27.66, $27.13 & $27.08 price levels, with resistance at $28.31, $28.37, $28.50 (50 day moving average) & $28.53/share.

This looks to be another situation where it is best to watch how the ETF interacts with their support/resistance levels & use options as protection in the meantime.

DBP, the Invesco DB Precious Metals Fund ETF has lost -10.4% over the past year, but has climbed +13.9% (ex-distributions) since their low of September 2022.

Their RSI is neutral & their MACD is bullish, leaving investors & traders to wait & see how they behave around their recent gaps of the last few weeks.

While DBP is listed as optionable, there is no open interest in the next two month’s strike prices, leaves traders & investors with limited protection from loss as their distribution level for the year is only 0.46%.

DBP has support at the $47.23, $46.96 & $46.92/share price levels, with resistance at $47.44, $47.76 & $48.12/share.

Traders & investors should see how they behave at these price levels before buying more or entering into a new position in DBP to minimize potential losses.

Regional Banks (DPST), Lithium (LIT), Oil & Gas (DIG) & U.S. Healthcare Providers (IHF) Are All Bearishly Lagging The Market

DPST, the Direxion Daily Regional Banks Bull 3x Shares ETF has lost -70.5% of its value since one year ago, falling -73.6% from their high in March 2022 (ex-distributions).

Their RSI is oversold & MACD is also highly bearish after they stepped off of a price cliff in the beginning of March.

Their above average volume recently has coincided with these losses, and in the last 52 weeks they have no support, as the low of Friday’s candlestick at $11.43 is the lowest level they’ve been at in that time period.

They have resistance at $19.99, $20.60 & $21.07.

While their 2.56% distribution will provide some form of cushion for long-term holders of the ETF, this is one to tread lightly around until it has consolidated into more of a range & behaves less volatily.

LIT, the Global X Lithium ETF has lost -14.14% over the past year, falling -25.6% (ex-distributions) from their peak in August 2022.

Their RSI is also oversold & their MACD is in a significant downtrend, with recent trading volumes being below average.

With only a 0.95% distribution yield, they do not offer much protection to the downside & their only support level of the past 52 weeks is at $57.54.

LIT has resistance at the $61.07, $62.32, $62.37 & $62.45/share price levels.

Unless trading options, this also looks like one to wait before making any moves into until after it has consolidated more.

DIG, the ProShares Ultra Oil & Gas ETF has gained +7.85% over the past year, but has fallen -26.33% (ex-distributions) from their high of November 2022.

Their MACD recently had a bearish crossover, and their RSI is approaching oversold territory, on weaker than average trading volumes compared to the year prior.

Their next levels of support are at the $35.71, $35.38 & $34.20/share price levels, with resistance at the $37.24, $37.28, $37.86 & $37.87/share price levels.

While their annual distribution provides long-term holders with a 1.53% cushion, it does not look safe enough to be making moves on DIG from a long-term perspective, but options can be traded for protection.

IHF, the iShares U.S. Healthcare Providers ETF has fallen -11.72% over the past year, losing -17.83% (ex-distributions) from their high of April 2022.

Their RSI is heavily oversold & their MACD has been in a bearish decline for the last 3 weeks as the ETF suffered.

Recent trading volumes have been above average, but their past year’s volumes are very volatile, much like the share price.

IHF’s only support from the past 52 weeks is at $236.05, with resistance at $248.10, $249.50 & $252.40.

They too should be approached with caution until they have consolidated more & established a more stable price range, but options traders can find profits from the chaos of their near-term volatility.

Tying It All Together & The Week Ahead

It goes without saying that Silicon Valley Bank will be a popular headline generator this upcoming week, especially as Monday has no major economic data to report on.

We have yet to see all of the fallout from their failure & what other dangers are lurking in the coal mine that this particular canary is warning us of.

Tuesday will bring their (former) executives some relief, as all eyes will shift towards the CPI data readings at 8:30 am (CPI, Core CPI & each’s Y-o-Y change), as well as the NFIB Optimism Index.

Wednesday we will hear data on Retail Sales, Retail sales ex-auto’s, the Empire State Manufacturing data, Business Inventories & Homebuilders Survey.

Of course, most eyes Wednesday will be more interested on the PPI data that will also be released at 8:30 am that morning.

Thursday sees us receiving data on Initial Jobless Claims, Import Price Index, Housing Starts, Building Permits & the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing data, all at 8:30 am.

Friday rounds the week off with Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization, U.S. Leading Economic Index & Consumer Sentiment data.

While I’m not an economist, the candlesticks that we saw all of last week signal more near-term volatility to come.

Monday’s shooting star candlestick on SPY & QQQ, paired with IWM’s bearish candle paired with the following day’s relative freefall spell more near-term volatility to come.

See you back here next week!

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OF OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM, USD, HEDJ, PAVE, DBP, DPST, LIT, DIG or IHF AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***

I am still on vacation, so this week’s post will be more brief than previous weeks’ posts.

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF gained +1.97% this past week, mostly due to a gap up on Friday’s session.

Their RSI is still neutral at ~53 & their MACD is beginning to curl in a bullish direction & recent volumes have improved, but remains about average.

It will be interesting to see how they hold up with support at $399.79, $399.27 (10 day moving average), $397.59 (50 day moving average), but it looks to be a volatile week ahead.

SPY has a lot of resistance in the $408 price-level zone ($408.17, $408.49 & $408.61), before jumping to $412.05.

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ET gained +2.68% this past week, gapping up stronger than SPY did on Friday’s session, although their volume has been more average than SPY’s recently.

Their next level of resistance is $304.69, followed by $309.78, $312.64 & $313.68.

QQQ’s support will likely be tested in the coming days, with the levels to watch being $296.17, $295.51, $295.01 (10 day moving average), before falling to $289.65.

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF gained +2.13% this week, with similarly “near-average” volume compared to the rest of the year prior.

Like SPY & QQQ, Friday’s gap up moved IWM’s RSI to look bullish & their MACD is beginning to signal an attempt at a bullish crossover.

Let’s dive into the best & worst performing sectors/geo-locations!

Aerospace & Defense (DFEN), Industrials (DUSL), Germany (EWG) & Small Caps (UAA) Are All Bullishly Leading The Market

DFEN, the Direxion Daily Aerospace & Defense Bull 3x Shares ETF has gained 4.44% over the past year, but has rebounded 99.29% from its low in September of 2022.

While their distribution will not provide much cushion at 0.40% annually (0.1% payout/quarter), they have support at $21.74 (10 day moving average), $21.47, $21.41 & $21.39.

Given where they are at currently it would be wisest to wait on any moves or use options strategies around these levels, as their next overhead resistance level is $22.70, followed by $22.80 & $23.14.

DUSL, the Direxion Daily Industrials Bull 3x Shares ETF has lost 3% this past year (excluding dividends, which still only provide a 0.58% cushion for loss), but has gained 83.12% from the lows of October 2022.

Their next resistance levels are $36.55, $36.57 & $36.73.

Support levels are a bit lower, signaling investors who aren’t trading options around DUSL should wait until they test these levels again before entering.

Support levels currently are $35.00, $34.34 & $34.31 (10 day moving average), and there is a consolidation around the area of the 10 & 50 day moving averages.

EWG, the iShares MSCI Germany ETF has gained 10% (in addition to their 2.87% distribution for long-term holders), while gaining 44.47% since their low in September 2022.

Long-term holders will be rewarded the 2.85% in distributions, but this is currently too overheated for an entry, with overhead resistance at $28.91, $28.95 & $29.86.

Unless using options, it is best for long-only readers to wait to see how EWG performs against their support levels of $27.57 (10 day moving average), $27.45 & $27.24 (50 day moving average) before making an entry.

SAA, the ProShares Ultra Small Cap 600 ETF has lost -11.18% over the past year (with minimal cushion from their 0.39% distribution), but they have recovered +39.37% from their lows in September 2022.

While they’ve begun to fill their most recent gap down, this one also is worth taking a wait & see approach for entering a position.

With resistance at $25.86, $26.16, $26.17 & $26.49, it will be important to see how they behave at their support levels of $24.27, $24.23 & $24.21.

Colombia (GXG), Mortgage Real Estate (REM), U.S. Telecommunications (IYZ) & Clean Energy (PBW) Are All Bearishly Lagging The Market

GXG, the Global X MSCI Colombia ETF has lost 32.13% (not including their 12.75% distribution paid to long-term holders), and is -38.73% from their high in April 2022.

While their last week went well, resistance tests at $19.87, $19.91 & $20.11 will be imperative to see how much upward momentum they can gain, while they have support at $18.95, $18.82 & $18.79/share.

REM, the iShares Mortgage Real Estate Capped ETF has lost -17% over the past year (although their distribution of 10.58% to long-term holders helped cushion the fall), and has lost -22% since their high in March 2022.

They have pivoted off of the low last Wednesday to recover for 2 days, but need to face tests at $24.49, $24.63 & $24.71 (50 day moving average) & have a long ways down to go upon failing, as support levels are $24.14 (10 day moving average), $23.20 & $23.11.

IYZ, the iShares U.S. Telecommunications ETF has lost 20.94% over the past year (excluding the 2.49% distribution they pay to long-term holders), down -23.23% from their high in March 2022.

The gaps up of last week don’t look strong here, with overhead resistance at $23.22, $23.23, $23.50 (50 day moving average) & $23.61.

Support levels of $23.07 (10 day moving average), $22.50 & $22.29 are going to be what to watch for to see how they hold up upon retest.

PBW, the Invesco Wilder Hill Clean Energy ETF has lost -20.48% over the past year (excluding their 3.69% distribution paid to long-term holders), losing -34.78% since their high in April 2022.

Their next tests of resistance will be at the $45.17, $45.66 & $46.31/share level.

Support levels to watch are at $43.89, $43.67 & $43.47.

Tying It All Together

Monday will bring us Factory Orders data, followed by Fed Chairman Powell testifying to the Senate Tuesday, when Wholesale Inventories & Consumer Credit data will also be reported.

Wednesday will provide us with ADP Employment, U.S. Trade Balance, Fed Chairman Powell testifying to the House, JOLTs Job Openings data & Beige Book information.

On Thursday Jobless Claims data will be reported & Fed Governor Waller is scheduled to speak & Friday wraps the week up with Employment Report, U.S. Unemployment Rate & Federal Budget Data.

See you back here next week!

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACTS OF DFEN, DUSL, EWG, SAA, GXG, REM, IYZ or PBW AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***