Category: Market News, Research & Commentary

Last week was a bit of relief for longs in the market, with gains on four of the five days.

Earnings reports were received with enthusiasm, although most contained issues of warning for upcoming headwinds for investors to anticipate in the coming months to years.

The Federal Reserve stayed in line with expectations, announcing a .75% increase in rates, which also helped the market as there were no surprises, however there was some future uncertainty that was discussed on that front as well.

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF had one of its strongest weeks in 2022, and ending the week on a 1.46% gap up Friday.

Expect to see some pullback & shake-out this week, as their RSI is entering overbought territory, and with that their MACD will follow bearishly.

Volume this last week was also not particularly high, showing that market participants still have some reservations.

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF that tracks the performance of the NASDAQ had a very similar week.

Their chart also tells the same story as SPY’s, and earnings calls this week are likely to be the straw that breaks the camel’s back.

Big banks & big companies, especially tech have all reported earnings now, but many of these companies are less likely to be negatively impacted by the current state of the economy vs. the smaller companies that will be reporting in the coming weeks.

We will get better insight not only into the true state of the consumer, but also the state of the American worker, as companies will surely be discussing layoffs & hiring freezes.

Let’s take a look at the best & worst performing sectors & geo-location ETFs from a technical perspective.

Natural Gas (BOIL), Soybeans(SOYB), Water Resources (PHO) & U.S. Infrastructure Development (PAVE) Are All Bullishly Leading The Market

BOIL, the ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Natural Gas ETF has rebounded from its drop in June, almost recovering most of its recent losses.

This past week they began to fall, with their MACD now turning bearish & their RSI retreating back down to neutral after a strong month of July.

This would be a good time to have some protection for BOIL holdings in the form of puts, as they do not offer a dividend to cushion investors.

SOYB, the Teucrium Soybean Fund ETF has also fared well over the last 2 weeks & finds itself now re-testing resistance from late June 2022.

Friday’s 1.75% gap up was on above average volume, signaling confidence among investors, & it looks like SOYB could begin to establish a new price range around the $27.38 range.

They will need to break above $27.90 to continue their bullish march forward, but their RSI is still on the overbought end of neutral & they may have more momentum in the near-term.

Like with anything else these days though, keep an eye on the puts as insurance in this volatile market.

PHO, the Invesco Water Resources ETF has had an extremely strong last couple of weeks, recovering much of its losses that were incurred since March 2022.

Their volumes have been below average consistently since early March, signaling that there is not a high degree of confidence from investors.

The $52.23 price level will be their next test, although they may not break above it right away, as their RSI is overbought & there is sure to be some settling down into a price range in the near-term.

With a small dividend (0.25%) & options, there are multiple ways for investors to protect themselves while this new price range is established.

PAVE, the Global X U.S. Infrastructure Development ETF has also recovered most of its losses since March, after an especially strong past week.

They too have an overbought RSI, and if they can’t break above the $26.66/share resistance level should begin to establish a new price range between there & $25.57.

Their dividend is a bit healthier than PHO’s at 0.65%, but that is the only cushion for these shares as there are no PAVE options.

Dry Bulk Shipping (BDRY), Homebuilders & Supplies (NAIL), Germany (EWG) & The Euro (ULE)Are All Bearishly Lagging The Market

BDRY, the Breakwave Dry Bulk Shipping ETF has had a difficult past year, losing ~71% of its share price since September of last year.

Their RSI is oversold, and they will now need to try to break above the $13.80 resistance level.

Recent volumes are not indicating much confidence in their share price, and there may be more damage to come in the near-term.

NAIL, the Direxion Daily Homebuilders & Supplies Bull 3x Shares ETF has begun to recover from its 2022 losses & now faces a test at the $38.54 price level.

Keep an eye on their MACD, as it is beginning to curl over bearishly & looks to be signaling there is some near-term losses on the horizon.

NAIL does not offer a dividend, so all protection will need to be in the form of puts.

There is not much in terms of support until the $34.20/level, which is something to keep in mind as you do your research.

EWG, the iShares MSCI Germany ETF has rallied back from its low for the year over the last couple of weeks after a steady decline for the last year.

They will need to test the $24.14 level, but have support at $23.31/share, which when combined with their 4.56% dividend yield looks to have an appealing possible entry-point for a position.

However, based on their MACD’s bearish leveling off, it would be wise to also have some puts as protection too.

ULE, the ProShares Ultra Euro ETF also experienced a bit of a brief bounce over the month of July, after also falling steadily over the year prior.

I would expect them to move in similar fashion to EWG, and their technicals are all on a similar page as one another.

Look for them to try to break above the $10.62 resistance level, with $10.27 being the first stop down in terms of support.

Tying It All Together

This week will be a continuation of earnings, where stocks will look to keep up the same momentum that powered them through the last few days of last week.

Based on recent trading volumes there is still a lot of uncertainty surrounding where the indexes will go next.

Manufacturing numbers & employment opportunity numbers are expected to drop modestly in this week’s announcements, while there is a slight expected increase in PMI coming in Wednesday’s announcement.

The non-farm payrolls numbers are expected to decrease dramatically, but the unemployment rate is still projected to be 3.6%.

James Bullard & Loretta Mester are both scheduled to speak as well, with markets responding positively last month for Bullard after he spoke.

While the recent bear rally may continue into the week, don’t expect it to gather too much steam.

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OF SPY, QQQ, BOIL, SOYB, PHO, PAVE, BDRY, NAIL, EWG & ULE AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***

Last week we saw earnings season kick off, with big banks primarily kicking off the week’s reports.

While results & outlooks were mixed, the major indexes were able to notch 3 days of gains, with the bookend days resulting in losses.

This appears to be setting the stage for more volatility to come in the next couple of weeks as more companies report their earnings.

SPUU, the Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 2X Shares ETF was able to gain some momentum, but unable to pass beyond the $80.15/share level.

While volumes were above average compared to the rest of July, there still is a lot of uncertainty in the air, as their MACD is still charging upwards bullishly, but their RSI is breaking down.

TQQQ, the ProShares UltraPro QQQ ETF that tracks the NASDAQ’s performance, has seen similar performance, although on higher volumes than SPUU compared to the recent month.

Based on their technical positioning, there looks to be a fallout coming for TQQQ in the near-term, given that their components tend to be more interest rate reliant than S&P 500 companies.

However, given the nature of the concerns for growth outlooks being discussed in recent earnings reports, the S&P 500 will follow close behind once the NASDAQ begins to fall again.

Natural Gas (BOIL), Debt Market Income (JPIE), Senior Loans (BKLN) & 7-10 Year Treasury Bonds (IEF) Are All Bullishly Leading The Markets

BOIL, the ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Natural Gas ETF has recovered a solid amount of its June losses, and looks ready to go test the $95/share level after breaking out above its 50 day moving average.

Their MACD points to more strength to come, and their RSI is still not in the overbought range yet, along with strong recent volume, signaling that BOIL still has momentum to run.

While they don’t have a dividend to provide downside protection, they do have options that traders & investors can use to position themselves against possible downturns as a hedge.

JPIE, the JPMorgan Income ETF is a relatively new ETF, and does not have options yet, but has been performing strongly since June’s steep downfall.

Their RSI is encroaching on overbought territory, while their MACD is still very bullish.

Traders & investors who own these shares have a 2.5% cushion against losses in their dividend yield, should they hold it for more than one year.

They need to break above the $46.80/share level as they continue climbing higher.

BKLN, the Invesco Senior Loan ETF also has recovered well from the losses incurred in June, despite showing weakness on Friday of this week.

Their MACD is still bullish, but beginning to turn bearish & their RSI has already begun to work its way back down towards neutral from recent high levels.

Fortunately, they pay a 3.3% dividend yield annually to investors who own them for a year, and also offer options that can be used to protect traders against any falls in price.

IEF, the iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF has also recovered a bit from its fall in March.

Their RSI is pushing towards overbought conditions, which may result in a brief cool off, but their MACD is still bullish.

IEF has options that can be used for downside protection/profits & also pays a 1.2% dividend, for those who hold their shares for the course of a year.

Cloud Computing (SKYY), U.S. Financial Services (IYG), Global Autos (CARZ) & Video Games & E-Sports (HERO) Are All Bearishly Lagging The Market

SKYY, the First Trust Cloud Computing ETF has continued to struggle since November of 2021, and looks to face testing a critical price level this week.

If they fail to break above $72.50, then it appears there will be more near-term pain for the ETF.

Their MACD is beginning to roll over bearishly, and their RSI is neutral, which would facilitate a drop.

Traders can use options to protect themselves on the downside with SKYY, while also collecting a 1.21% dividend annually.

IYG, the iShares U.S. Financial Services ETF has fallen steadily since February, & look to have more room to drop in the near-term.

Traders can use their options to position themselves defensively against future losses, and shareholder get a 1.89% cushion of downside protection from their dividend.

CARZ, the First Trust NASDAQ Global Auto Index Fund ETF has enjoyed a brief rally in July of 2022, after trending downward since November 2021.

They have not traded on meaningful volume over the last few months, when compared with the year prior, showing that sentiment is still not that confident & bullish.

Despite not having options to trade, they do offer a 3% dividend yield as a cushion for investors who purchase the ETF & hold it for a year to protect against losses from volatility.

HERO, the Global X Video Games & Esports ETF has also been steadily in decline since last summer.

They will need to break above the $22.30 & $22.90 price levels to reverse their downward trend, but traders can trade their options as they decline further to profit in the meantime.

Tying It All Together

While the largest & most anticipated news this week will be coming out of the Federal Reserve, earnings will also be a big contributor to market sentiments.

Earnings reports are still sounding pessimistic, and data is still weaker than what investors are anticipating.

How much volatility this creates will be key to figuring out the rest of the year’s interest rate decisions from the Federal Reserve, which will give clues about how to play out the rest of the year in the markets.

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OF SPUU, TQQQ, BOIL, JPIE, BKLN, IEF, SKYY, IYG, CARZ & HERO AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***

This past week was unsurprisingly volatile in the markets, with both the S&P 500 & the NASDAQ indexes gapping down on Friday after the CPI disappointment.

Jobless claims also did not help the picture, with a disappointing report, and consumer credit also increased again.

QLD, the ProShares Ultra QQQ ETF dropped 7.12% on Friday (2x levered), as fears about inflation, interest rates & the state of the US consumer & employee made investors seek less risk.

Their trading volume is still below average for 2022, although on Friday they received more trading attention than they had for the last few weeks.

The $43.66 price-level will have to try & hold up, else they will fall down to test $41.96.

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF also had a difficult week, closing Friday on a -2.9% gap down.

Both indexes shown above have RSI’s that are bordering on being oversold, but SPY’s MACD will bearishly cross before QLD’s.

SPY will try to stay above $385.15, else it will continue to fall until it tests the $380.54 level.

Let’s look at some of the top & performing ETFs based on sectors & geo-locations.

Oil Services (OIH), Corn (CORN), North American Pipelines (TPYP) & US Dollar (UUP) Are All Bullishly Leading The Markets

OIH, the VanEck Vectors Oil Services ETF has been steadily gaining since early December 2021, although it had a difficult last 3 trading sessions.

With an MACD that looks about to bearishly cross & a neutral RSI, there looks to be more losses in store for OIH in the near-term.

Traders can capitalize on this by using their options, where profit from puts can be put to use to buy more shares as the price falls lower, and the investor collects a dividend.

CORN, the Teucrium Corn Fund ETF has also been climbing steadily since October 2021, as fears about food shortages & supply chains have continued.

CORN’s MACD is bullishly crossing, signaling that there may be momentum in the coming days, and their RSI is neutral.

They will need to break above their 50 day moving average, before testing the $30.04 level.

TPYP, the Tortoise North American Pipeline Fund ETF has also enjoyed strong returns since September 2021.

TPYP ETF’s MACD is bearishly crossing over, and their RSI is neutral, so there may be some short-term weakness coming.

Unfortunately, they do not have options, but their 3.37% dividend yield can form an appealing price cushion for losses if an investor holds the ETF for a year.

UUP, the Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund ETF has been steadily climbing over the last year, although it did decline a little bit in May 2022.

UUP has recently completed a bullish MACD crossover, and its RSI is approaching overbought after Friday’s 0.8% gap up.

They do not offer a dividend, but they do have options that traders can use to profit & hedge against volatility as they march onward to test the $28.07 level.

Cannabis (TOKE), Industrials (UXI), Dynamic Media (PBS) & Clean Energy (PBW) Bearishly Lagging The Markets

TOKE, the Cambria Cannabis ETF has had a disappointing past year (I have a position in TOKE), and they appear to be facing additional near-term losses.

They broke through their $8.70 support level, and their MACD is bearishly crossing over, signaling that they are going to continue lower in the coming days.

They do not have options, but do offer a 4.05% dividend yield that can serve as a cushion for investors who hold the ETF for a year.

UXI, the ProShares Ultra Industrials ETF

PBS, the Invesco Dynamic Media ETF has also had a difficult past year, particularly since December 2021.

Their MACD is about to bearishly cross over, despite their RSI almost being in oversold territory signaling that this name is not out of the woods yet & should see more near-term price declines.

PBW, the Invesco WilderHill Clean Energy ETF has had a choppy year, losing 46.5% of its value since it peaked in November 2022.

PBW also has a bearish crossover approaching on its MACD, and a neutral RSI.

If they fall below the $49.79 level, they should test the $48.89 support line after.

PBW pays a 2.64% dividend yield, and also has options, making this a name that can be turned into profits, even during market downturns.

Tying It All Together – The Week Ahead

Next week looks to be a continuation of late last week, unless there are some surprises in store for the data being reported.

NY Fed Inflation expectations will be reported on Monday, followed by the NFIB Small Business Index & PPI Final Demand numbers on Tuesday.

Based on the other numbers that we are seeing reported, these look to also be disappointing for markets.

Retail Sales, the Empire State Manufacturing Index & the NAHB Homebuilders Index numbers will all be released on Wednesday, along with the FOMC statement & projections in the afternoon.

Thursday will have unemployment numbers, along with housing starts & building permits, and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index.

Friday closes the week off with Industrial Production Index, Capacity Utilization & Leading Economic Indicators numbers being reported.

Pending any surprises, Friday’s move down should continue into next week, as market participants try to establish what the market’s fair value is.

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OF QLD, SPY, OIH, CORN, TPYP, UUP, UXI, PBS or PBW ETFs ***

*** I OWN A POSITION IN TOKE ***

Last week we saw the major market indexes turn around a positive week for the first time in nearly 2 months.

While data being reported & earnings calls did not sound particularly more upbeat, investors felt more confident in taking on more risk, causing markets to rise.

SPUU, the Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 2x Shares ETF performed very strong, closing green for 4 of the last 5 days.

While there was temporary relief, their chart does not look to be out of the woods just yet, and this upcoming week looks like we will see more selling than buying.

TQQQ, the ProShares UltraPro QQQ ETF also rebounded last week, after a mostly negative last quarter.

Volumes were higher than they have been all year, but the chart is not signaling that it is time to buy in just yet.

Energy Momentum (PXI), UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT), Chile (ECH) & Metals and Mining (XME) All Bullishly Leading The Market

PXI, the Invesco DWA Energy Momentum ETF has performed strongly since August of 2021.

PXI does look to be cooling off though, as their 10 & 50 day moving averages are pulling tighter together, and their RSI is about to enter into overbought territory.

They look to be due for a shakeout in the near-term, which can be navigated using options as hedging protection, as long-only shares only provide a .55% cushion through their dividend for those who hold the position for a year.

TBT, the ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury ETF has been climbing steadily since December, as higher interest rate expectations powered it higher.

While they’ve cooled off in May, their trading volume has gone down from the rest of 2022, signaling a lack of investor confidence.

TBT’s MACD has been signaling bearish since the beginning of May & their RSI has gone back to neutral, showing that they may be ready to begin climbing higher again in the near-term.

ECH, the iShares MSCI Chile Capped ETF has performed very strongly since the beginning of May, climbing ~26% over the last few weeks.

ECH offers a 4.13% dividend yield that investors can use as a cushion to protect against future losses, and they also have options that traders can use to reduce risk.

They look primed for a pullback in the near-term, with an overbought RSI, which may present a buying opportunity for some investors.

XME, the SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF has been trading on higher than average volume in 2022 vs. 2021’s trading volumes.

They look to have momentum to continue climbing in the coming weeks, should their MACD not roll over & begin to turn bearish, as their RSI is currently neutral.

Investors looking to buy into XME should reduce the risks associated in this volatile market environment by leveraging their options, as their dividend yield does not provide much protection from any downside risks.

US Rotation (RORO), Telemedicine & Digital Health (EDOC), Gerber Kawasaki (GK) & Dry Bulk Shipping (BDRY) All Bearishly Lagging The Market

RORO, the ATAC US Rotation ETF has performed poorly since the beginning of 2022, falling ~38% in the last 5 months.

As their RSI begins to return to neutral, investors may begin to think about rotating into a RORO position, as holding the shares for the year ahead yields a 4.3% dividend.

EDOC, the Global X Telemedicine & Digital Health ETF has also been performing poorly since November of 2021.

While they look to be establishing a new floor to build from, there is no dividend yield to provide additional returns for long-term shareholders who establish a new position now.

Their MACD looks like that it may becoming bearish in the near-term, so this is something investors may want to monitor closely in the coming weeks before purchasing shares.

GK, the AdvisorShares Gerber Kawasaki ETF has performed terribly since its inception in July 2021, losing ~36% over the last 8-9 months.

While their RSI is approaching neutral & their MACD looks bullish, this is a name that will experience more near-term pain & is not worth considering entry into a new position in at this time.

BDRY, the Breakwave Dry Bulk Shipping ETF has lost ~50% of its value since October of 2021.

Their MACD is currently bearish, and their 10 day moving average is set to break through the 50 day MA, signaling more pain on the near-horizon.

As they offer no dividend yield, this does not appear to be a good time to begin buying into BDRY.

Tying It All Together

This upcoming week looks to have more volatility in store, after major averages had their first positive week last week in months.

Investors will be interested in PMI data, job openings, jobless claims, construction spending & factory orders data, as well as the Fed’s Beige Book.

Earnings calls will also continue, where guidance offered will help mold future expectations for market performance in the coming year.

Volatility looks to continue, which can offer some discounts for investors willing to take on more risk while purchasing new assets or building on existing positions.

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OF SPUU, TQQQ, PXI, TBT, ECH, XME, RORO, EDOC, GK, OR BDRY AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***

Major stock indexes continued to slide this last week, despite a mid-week brief rally focused around the Federal Reserve announcement & Powell conference.

Energy prices continued to climb, the dollar remained relatively flat & earnings reports continued to come in, with more on deck next week.

SSO, the ProShares Ultra S&P 500 ETF traded on above average volume this past week, with their MACD signaling more pain to come as it looks to be in relative free-fall.

With an RSI at 38, there may be an opportunity to trade options around the ETF & profit while waiting for the dip to rebound.

TQQQ, the ProShares UltraPro QQQ ETF is in a more extreme, yet similar camp, as their holdings are more focused on names that such as technology & sciences, which tend to have higher levels of debt & be impacted more greatly by interest rate changes.

The technicals on TQQQ’s chart look similar to SSO’s; higher volume than average this week, RSI at 36 & a MACD that is showing more downward momentum to come.

Let’s take a look into some of the top & bottom performing sectors & geo-locations based on their technical ratings.

Energy (ERX), 7-10 Year Treasury Bear (TYO), Utilities (UTES) & Agriculture (DBA) Bullishly Leading The Markets

ERX, the Direxion Daily Energy Bull 2x Shares ETF has been steadily gaining since it’s 2021 low in mid-August.

I don’t think that this surprises anyone, but something interesting here is that after their gap up on Wednesday, their trading volumes have dropped below average for the past year, which is even lower than the average for the last 1-2 months.

Their RSI is still in the 60’s & their MACD looks healthy, but there may be some near-term pullback that can be used as an entry-point based on the closeness of the 10 & 50 day moving averages.

ERX pays a 1.36% dividend yield, which can be used as a cushion for those entering a long-only position.

The $62.79 level will be key to watch this week, as they try to stay above it.

TYO, the Direxion Daily 7-10 Year Treasury 3x Bear Shares ETF has also seen steady success since the beginning of August, gaining ~50% in that time period.

Their RSI is approaching overbought territory, although their MACD is beginning to cross over bullishly, signaling more gains in the near-term.

An entry into the ETF now should be accompanied with some options as a hedge.

UTES, the EFTIS Series Trust I Reaves Utilities ETF is beginning to rebound, after falling sharply ~10% since April 2022.

While they aren’t out of the woods just yet, their MACD is beginning to curl upwards, and their RSI is still in the low 40’s, which may signal the turning of momentum into a bullish near-term period.

UTES provides a 2% cushion for investors in the form of their dividend for stockholders who plan to build a position for the longer-term.

DBA, the Invesco DB Agriculture Fund has been steadily gaining since last May, despite having some more recent hiccups since mid-April.

While they do not have a dividend yield, they do have options that can be used to soften the landing on entering a new position via long-short.

DBA’s MACD is still trending downwards, but it is beginning to signal potential signs of a reversal in the near-term, which is supported by their RSI at 42.

I would be watching how they hold $21.77, as well as how their price reacts when the 10 & 50 day moving averages meet.

Blockchain (BKCH), Cannabis (YOLO), Semiconductors (USD) & Social Sentiment (BUZZ) Bearishly Lagging The Markets

BKCH, the Global X Blockchain ETF has struggled since its inception in July 2021,falling 72.7% over its first 2 quarters on the market.

BKCH does not have options to trade yet, but they do offer an 8.65% dividend yield, which interested investors can use as a cushion for building their position, should they hold it for over a year.

They look poised to reverse trend & gain some losses back as their RSI approaches the 30, or “oversold” mark & their MACD looks to try & crossover bullishly, but it is too speculative to tell for sure, given the interest rate concerns impacting tech names.

YOLO, the AdvisorShares Pure Cannabis ETF has been steadily declining since June of 2021, although there may be an end in sight, as Friday 5/6/2022 resulted in a hammer candlestick at their current low price for the year.

Those interested in entering a long position here or buying down their average price for existing positions may see this as a sign of confidence in a near-term reversal.

Their RSI is well-oversold & their MACD is beginning to flatten, which could lead to more bullish momentum, should their trading volumes continue to stay above average for the year in the near-term. (I have a long position in TOKE, another cannabis ETF)

With no options to use as a hedge & no dividend to offer a cushion from more losses, this will be an interesting one to watch.

USD, the ProShares Ultra Semiconductors ETF has dropped by 53.5% from its high in November 2021, with trading volumes increasing on average throughout 2022.

USD’s MACD is currently bullish, but they will need to break above their 10 day moving average in the near-term in order to keep it from crossing back bearishly.

Anyone thinking of entering USD should also consider buying some puts as well in order to protect themselves from potential near-term losses.

BUZZ, the VanEck Vectors Social Sentiment ETF has performed poorly since topping out in November 2021, posting 44.4% losses from their high.

Their trading volumes have been steadily going down since last August to October, with a few random flare ups, signaling that investors aren’t particularly keen on their concept.

Their MACD is trying to break out bullishly, but a reversal will be heavily reliant on yesterday’s hammer candlestick, making the $15/share mark a good place to be keeping an eye on as the begin trading again next week.

Tying It All Together

Next week will be interesting, particularly Wednesday’s CPI numbers, which will be one of the week’s focal points.

Thursday’s PPI data & jobless claims data will also be something to keep an eye on, to look for inconsistencies with other recently reported data points that markets have been trying to digest.

Another couple sets of numbers that will shed better light on inflation are coming on Tuesday, with the NFIB small business index & the real household savings rate (SAAR), as this will shed more light into how inflation is impacting people.

Earnings reports will also add in another dimension that markets will need to deal with, with 1,177 companies reporting (per Yahoo).

Results & guidance numbers reported will give more insight into the current state of the economy beyond the data prints that we have been reading each week.

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OF SSO, TQQQ, ERX, TYO, UTES, DBA, BKCH, YOLO, USD, or BUZZ AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***

*** I HAVE A LONG POSITION IN TOKE, WHICH IS MENTIONED ABOVE IN THE BODY OF THIS ARTICLE ***

Last week’s market events were primarily driven by earnings & weakness in news, as well as anticipated tightening of interest rates to combat inflation.

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF continued its choppy 2022, closing down in 4 of 5 sessions as investors tried sorting out what is going to come next for stocks & the economy.

TQQQ, the ProShares UltraPro QQQ ETF that tracks the performance of the NASDAQ also struggled all week.

This week looks to be about the same catalysts as last, with more of a focus on technology names in the earnings department.

Let’s take a closer look at some of the best & worst performing ETFs by sector/geo-location for this week.

Corn (CORN), 20+ Year Treasuries (TBF), Soybeans (SOYB) & North American Pipelines (TPYP) Bullishly Lead The Markets

CORN, the Teucrium Corn Fund ETF has been on a steady climb since September 2021, and has finally cooled off over the last 3 days.

Based on their MACD & RSI, there looks to be a bit of voliatlity in store for them in the near-term, which is also supported by their recent above average trading volume levels.

There may be room for an entry into a new position soon, and with their options there looks to be many other opportunities for traders to profit as they establish a new price range after such rapid growth.

TBF, the ProShares Short 20+ Year Treasury ETF has enjoyed steady growth since December 2021’s lows.

Their MACD is beginning to curl bearishly, and their RSI is at overbought territory, signaling that there may be some near-term volatility in store.

TBF’s trading volumes have been above average recently compared to the year prior, signaling that traders have confidence in the ETF – trading options would be a wise move to safely take some profits from their current momentum.

SOYB, the Teucrium Soybean Fund ETF has also enjoyed steady growth since November os 2021, but looks to be currently cooling off.

Their MACD is beginning to roll over bearishly, although their RSI is re-approaching neutral (50) & they look to have investor confidence based on their recent above average trading volumes.

TPYP, the Tortoise North American Pipeline Fund ETF has also been steadily climbing over the last year, until the last two trading sessions where it began to sell off.

TPYP’s RSI was in need of a price shakeout, going from being overbought in the 70’s down to 54 over the last few days.

With a bearish MACD & no options contracts, the 3.4% dividend can be used as a cushion should the price continue lower.

Cloud Computing (SKYY), Entrepreneurs (ENTR), IPO’s (IPO) & Chindia (FNI) Bearishly Lagging The Markets

SKYY, the First Trust Cloud Computing ETF has not performed well as we have entered the rate tightening cycle.

Their RSI is approaching oversold territory, but their MACD still looks bearish – they do have options contracts that can be used to profit alongside a long-position while the price comes down, as well as a 1.1% dividend.

ENTR, the ERShares Entrepreneur 30 ETF is in a similar position, but has suffered from having much less trading volume than SKYY.

While ENTR does not have options to trade, they do offer a modest dividend that can be used as a cushion if entering a long-position.

However, their MACD & RSI do not appear level enough to safely begin thinking about that.

IPO, the Renaissance IPO ETF has continued moving downwards since November; also with a bearish MACD & oversold RSI.

Their performance is also going to be tied heavily to interest rates & market liquidity, making this a name to be using options for as a safety net.

FNI, the First Trust ISE Chindia Index ETF has been steadily falling since a year ago, with very low volume levels.

While their shares have tried to bounce in the last 2 months, there still looks to be a lot of weakness in this name.

Tying It All Together

All eyes will be set on earnings calls this week, as markets seek to rebound from a weak week prior.

Investors will be eager not just to hear about the performance of their holdings, but also to gain clues into the market landscape that may impact their stocks & the broader market in general.

Volumes will be important to keep a closer eye on, as they will give clues about the investor sentiment both in individual names, as well as in sector-specific ETFs.

Check back next week to see how different sectors fared in our next weekly review!

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OF SPY, TQQQ, CORN,TBF, SOYB, TPYP, SKYY, ENTR, IPO OR FNI AT THE TIME OF WRITING THIS ARTICLE ***

Last week the S&P 500 & NASDAQ indexes continued inching lower, with the ETFs that track each index completing bearish MACD crossovers, as their RSI‘s retreated back towards neutral (50).

SPUU, the Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 2X Shares ETF fell on about average trading volume compared to the year prior.

With <2% between the 10 & 50 day moving averages, there looks to be more declines to come this week, possibly stemming from bad news coming from earnings calls.

QLD, the ProShares Ultra QQQ ETF which tracks the NASDAQ’s performance also had a difficult week, with prices dropping even further than SPUU.

They have been trading on above average volume compared to the year prior, and have an RSI that is below 50, signaling that it is becoming oversold.

There looks to be more downwards room to fall in the near-term for QLD & SPUU, with ~6% between their 10 & 50 day moving averages.

Global Uranium Mining (URNM), Natural Gas (FCG), 20+ Year Treasury Bear (TMV) & Wheat (WEAT) Are All Bullishly Leading The Pack

URNM, the North Shore Global Uranium Mining ETF has been performing well since the end of January 2022 & has just had a bullish MACD crossover.

While their RSI is trending into overbought territory in the coming days, their above average trading volume f the past week looks set to continue pushing them higher in the coming days.

URNM does not have options to use for hedging, but they do offer a 5.31% dividend yield which can provide a cushion for returns depending on how long you hold it for.

They look set to establish a new range & continue climbing, which may provide an entry-point for new positions, using the yield as a hedging cushion.

FCG, the First Trust Natural Gas ETF has also been performing strongly since December 2021’s lows, and also recently had a bullish MACD crossover, after a month or so of establishing a new price range in the $24+ range.

While their RSI is approaching overbought, there looks to be more gains in the near-term as they try to cross over into the $26/share range.

They have options that can be used for hedging against volatility, and for long-only investors they do offer a 1.49% dividend yield, which can act as a small cushion against volatility.

TMV, the Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3X Shares ETF has been steadily gaining since the beginning of December 2021.

Their recent trading volumes have been above average, their MACD is signaling very bullish, and their RSI is almost 68, signaling that they’re approaching overbought.

TMV may be worth trading some options around as a new price range is established & the profits can then be used to buy in after the technicals signal a better entry-point.

WEAT, the Teucrium Wheat Fund ETF has been steadily rising since October of 2021, although since March of 2022 has held tight in the $10-11/share price range.

Their trading volume has been perking up, and their MACD is beginning to curl upwards signaling bullishness on the horizon.

With an RSI that is still in the neutral-ish area, WEAT may be ready to run in the near-term & since they have options this can be highly profitable while establishing a new position.

Cannabis (TOKE), Pop Culture Disruption (VPOP), e-Commerce (EBIZ) & Homebuilders (XHB) Are All Bearishly Lagging The Pack

TOKE, the Cambria Cannabis ETF has been having a difficult run since November of 2021.

They offer a 4% dividend yield that investors can use as a cushion against volatility, or as additional gains as they hold their position.

TOKE’s MACD is still flashing bearish, but their RSI is about to dip below 40, which is beginning to signal oversold conditions & may warrant a turnaround.

I have a position in TOKE ETF, as disclosed at the bottom of this article.

VPOP, the Simplify Volt Pop Culture Disruption ETF has also been having a tough last year, with their price falling since October of 2021.

Investors may be disappointed that VPOP does not offer any dividend, and traders will not be pleased that they do not have options, so this is not a name that I would be piling into a new position just yet.

Their MACD & RSI are both signaling that there is more near-term pain to come, and they haven’t had any meaningful trading volume recently, signaling that this is not the time to be looking at them.

EBIZ, the Global X e-Commerce ETF has been in a steady decline since October 2021 as well, although they tried to rebound a bit in March 2021.

EBIZ has had some higher than average trading volume days recently though, but last week had a bearish MACD crossover, along with an RSI of 43.

With such a minuscule dividend, this doesn’t look like a good time to begin a position, although options can be used to hedge against near-term losses.

XHB, the SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF has had a difficult 2022, losing almost 26% of their price since the new year began.

Their volume has been picking up above average though, and their RSI is oversold.

Watch their MACD in the near-term as it is beginning to show signs of turning bullish, which could provide them with the momentum needed to turn it around & begin climbing again.

Tying It All Together

This should be an interesting week, where earnings calls will meet Fed inflation predictions, CPI & unemployment data.

It is also a short trading week, as Friday is a holiday, which may also shake things up heading into a long weekend.

It will be interesting to see how much risk investors & traders are willing to take into the weekend, and with Thursday being an options expiration date, seeing how open interest on contracts changes for May 20th.

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OF: SPUU, QLD, URNM, FCG, TMV, WEAT, XHB, EBIZ or VPOP. ***

***I HAVE A LONG POSITION IN TOKE ***

2022’s volatility has continued throughout Q1, after showing some signs of strength in mid-March.

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF‘s MACD looks set to bearishly crossover this week, signaling increased volatility in the near-term.

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF that tracks the NASDAQ’s performance also looks to be signaling more volatility is coming, as their MACD is also beginning to curve bearishly.

Let’s take a look at how some sectors are over & underperforming based on our daily technical performance calculations.

Global Infrastructure (IGF), Energy (ERX), Brazil (FLBR) & Steel (SLX) Have All Bullishly Led The ETF Markets

IGF, the iShares Global Infrastructure Index ETF has grown ~7% since 2022 began, in addition to their 2.24% annual dividend yield.

Most of their price gains for this year took place in March over the last few weeks, which is why their RSI is oversold.

Their MACD still looks bullish, but they may blow off some steam in the near-term, providing an entry-point for new investors.

ERX, the Direxion Daily Energy Bull 2x Shares ETF has gained 105% since mid-December 2021, in addition to their 1.14% annual dividend yield.

Their MACD bearishly crossed over last week, as they’ve begun to establish a range in the $48-58/share neighborhood.

Their last couple of weeks have been lighter than average volume, and their RSI is approaching neutral again, signaling that they may be ready to continue climbing in the near-term.

FLBR, the Franklin FTSE Brazil ETF has grown 47.2% in 2022, excluding their annual 4.63% dividend yield.

FLBR’s MACD is bearishly rolling over, and their RSI is in overbought territory.

This should lead to some short-term losses that may provide entry-points for new positions in the coming weeks.

SLX, the VanEck Vectors Steel ETF has grown 30.5% since the beginning of 2022, not including their 5.44% annual dividend yield.

Their MACD is about to bearishly cross this upcoming week, and their RSI is just below overbought values.

This is another ETF that may have good entry-points for a new position as it begins to establish a new price range after such rapid growth.

FinTech Innovation (ARKF), Regional Banks (DPST), Germany (FGM) & Egypt (EGPT) Have All Bearishly Lagged The ETF Markets

ARKF, the ARK FinTech Innovation ETF has struggled since mid-November of 2022, losing almost half of its value over the last 5 months, and not paying a dividend yield.

While they have rebounded since mid-March, a neutral RSI & MACD that is curling over bearishly are signaling that there is more pain in store for this ETF.

DPST, the Direxion Daily Regional Banks Bull 3x Shares ETF has had a very volatile past year, shedding ~39% of its value since the peak in January 2022.

Their MACD has recently cross over bearishly, and their RSI is halfway between neutral & oversold.

While they offer a 0.71% cushion in the form of their dividend, this doesn’t look like the time to begin building a position in this space just yet, given the recent higher than average trading volume.

FGM, the First Trust Germany AlphaDEX Fund ETF has lost ~20% of its price since the middle of November 2021, although it does pay a 2.09% dividend.

Their MACD is beginning to signal short-term weakness, making it important to look at their RSI for additional clues as to how their price will perform in the coming months.

EGPT, the VanEck Vectors Egypt Index ETF has lost ~21% since the beginning of 2022, not including the 3.04% dividend that they pay.

Their RSI is coming back from being oversold, although it is still low at 36.

However, their MACD looks set to bullishly cross over, signaling that they may be prime for a near-term uptrend in price.

Tying It All Together

While broader market indexes are looking like there will be an increase in short-term volatility, there are still many bullish opportunities for profits in the market.

Based on the trading volumes of many of the names I looked at, there looks to be a lot of uncertainty still about the overall direction of the markets.

The sectors & areas mentioned above all have unique opportunities compared to other ETFs, and utilizing their options can help improve profits as the market moves volatily.

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OF SPY, QQQ, IGF, ERX, FLBR, SLX, ARKF, DPST, FGM or EGPT ETFs ***

Another week of earnings calls, inflation data & international relations news awaits us, after a Monday holiday in the United States.

One of the best indicators on market sentiment is going to lie in the volume levels of the index-based ETFs, as inflows & outflows there will reflect the broader market’s feelings on the headlines.

SPXL, the Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 3x Shares ETF has been trading at higher than average volumes so far in 2022, mostly on weakness.

Their MACD implies that there will be more volatility coming in the week ahead.

TQQQ, the ProShares UltraPro QQQ ETF has also had similar fate, although a bit more extreme as we kicked off 2022.

Their MACD is about to bearishly cross, although their futures are looking up in Wednesday’s pre-market trading.

Gold Miners (NUGT), Copper Miners (CPOX), South Africa (EZA) & Greece (GREK) Bullishly Leading The Pack

NUGT, the Direxion Daily Gold Miners Index Bull 2X ETF has rebounded coming into February 2022, after starting the year off on a sluggish foot.

Their RSI is showing that they’ve become a bit overbought, but with a still bullish MACD & the 10 Day MA moving in on the 200 day on high trading volume, there may be momentum to reach $61.94.

COPX, the Global X Copper Miners ETF has also made a strong recovery in February, after starting the year off down.

Their MACD looks to be about to bearishly cross, which should be an interesting one to watch play out given the nature of the Russian sanctions that we are seeing.

I’ll be keeping an eye on their RSI as it approaches neutral territory again in the coming days to see if it can regather momentum.

EZA, the iShares MSCI South Africa ETF has been on a bullish run since the middle of December 2021, gaining 18.7%.

EZA’s MACD is beginning to curl over bearishly after 2 days of declines, which may signal buying opportunities as it establishes a new range in the $52-54 price levels, with a 1.82% cushion provided by their dividend yield.

GREK, the Global X MSCI Greece ETF has also experienced strength since November 2021, gaining ~17%.

Last week they had a bearish MACD crossover, and their RSI has come back to neutral.

If their price can stay above the 10 Day Moving Average they look to have more momentum to come in the near-term.

Russia (RUSL), Social Media (SOCL), Sports Betting & iGaming (BETZ) & Solar (TAN) Sub-Industries All Bearishly Lagging The Pack

RUSL, the Direxion Daily Russia Bull 2X Shares ETF has been falling since November 2021, with what looks like more pain to come as their MACD crosses bearishly.

This one looks to be a bit too uncertain at this time, given the nature of the international sanctions being discussed, and they only offer a 1.43% cushion via the dividend.

SOCL, the Global X Social media Index ETF has also been experiencing weakness since November 2021.

SOCL is also faced with more bearish momentum, with their MACD crossing bearishly, and their RSI showing more room to fall in the near-term.

BETZ, the Roundhill Sports Betting & iGaming ETF has been weak since October of 2021, and does not look ready to begin rallying again just yet.

Last Friday’s gap down day indicates that there will be more losses for BETZ in the near-term, as their indicators are all currently bearish.

TAN, the Invesco Solar ETF has underperformed since November of 2021.

While they have been improving slightly in February 2022, their MACD signals that they’re going to be experiencing more losses in the near-term.

Tying It All Together

The rest of this week will prove to be interesting, as futures are currently up (Wednesday at 9:02am), as it’s being reported that the sanctions that have been announced were softer than what was anticipated.

Between earnings calls, the Ukrainian situation, PMI numbers & inflation related reports on Friday we look to have a rocky short trading week ahead of us.

I’ll be paying attention to the volume levels of the index-tracking ETFs for clues about market sentiment throughout the rest of the week.

This past week saw a rebound for the markets, after starting 2022 off in a tumble.

Volumes still remain elevated compared to the year prior’s average, as traders are repositioning themselves into a rising interest rate environment.

Earnings calls are also going to continue into this week, which should shed more outlook into what companies are seeing for the upcoming year’s projections in a year already muddled with uncertainty.

TQQQ, the ProShares UltraPro QQQ ETF that tracks the NASDAQ’s performance 3x began climbing back from recent losses, with Friday’s price breaking out above their 10 Day Moving Average.

While its RSI is still oversold, as it creeps back to neutral keep an eye on the MACD, which while it is bullish currently, looks to be turning back over for a bearish crossover in the coming week.

SPXL, the Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 3x Shares ETF is in a very similar position.

They’re slightly more bullish, but still signaling that there will be more near-term pain to come as their RSI approaches neutral.

Let’s hop into the leaders & laggards from this week’s data!

Gasoline (UGA), Natural Gas (FCG), Qatar (QAT) & Equities For Rising Rates (EQRR) All Leading The Pack

UGA, the United States Gasoline Fund, LP ETF has been on a great run since early December, gaining 40% in two months.

It’s no surprise that their RSI is heavily overbought at 80.91, but there looks to be more momentum in the tank for UGA.

I’ll be eyeing the MACD as the spread between the price & the 10 Day Moving Average grows narrower; the lighter than average recent volumes do signal some uncertainty at these high price levels.

FCG, the First Trust Natural Gas ETF has also been enjoying a nice run that began back in August of 2021; gaining 71%.

Their volumes continue to be strong, but momentum does look to be waning.

This makes sense given we are near the end of winter, and so far it looks like all perceived possible winter energy crises have been averted.

Given it is at a new high, expect to see a bit of a pullback around the $21-level as it establishes a new price range.

QAT, the iShares MSCI Qatar Capped ETF has climbed steadily over the last year.

Their RSI is heavily overbought at 76; I am eyeing what happens as they try to cross above the $22.60/share mark, as their MACD is showing signs of losing momentum & rolling over bearishly.

EQRR, the ProShares Equities For Rising Rates ETF has been trading on above average volume coming into 2022, to no one’s surprise.

With an RSI that is still neutral & a 1.62% annual dividend yield, this may be a good name to get into while it gathers momentum.

Last week’s bullish MACD crossover also signals that, but first they will need to re-test & break out above the $54.12/share price level.

Retail (RETL), Biotechnology (BIB), Cloud Computing (SKYY) & Emerging Market Corporate Bonds (CEMB) All Lagging The Pack

RETL, the Direxion Daily Retail Bull 3x Shares ETF has been tumbling since mid-November.

Volumes have increased in 2022, where it has managed to hold above $20.76/share, but their MACD is signaling that there will be additional short-term pain to come, as it bearishly rolls over.

With limited yield to collect, I’d be keeping an eye on their RSI to time an entry if this is something of interest, but it doesn’t seem like a safe time just yet to begin establishing a position.

BIB, the ProShares Ultra NASDAQ Biotechnology ETF is another name that has been trying to establish its footing, since it began falling in September of 2021.

While its MACD has been bullish since the beginning of February, their recent trading volume is light, indicating that there is no clear sentiment about where its price level should be.

This one is another to wait on before beginning a position, as they do not offer a dividend yield to provide a cushion for additional near-term downside, and only hit their lowest price of the year within the last 2 weeks.

SKYY, the First Trust Cloud Computing ETF is one of the top performing Cloud Computing ETFs, but the space as a whole has been performing poorly.

They have dropped 24% since early November, as many of SKYY’s holdings will be adversely impacted by rising interest rates.

Keep an eye on their MACD, which is currently rolling over bearishly.

Given that their RSI is approaching neutral again & volumes have been above average in the last month, this looks set to go back down & test its support levels, hopefully holding above $90, as otherwise it’s a long drop to $84.84.

CEMB, the iShares Emerging Markets Corporate Bond ETF has also been underperforming since August, but may have a near-term opportunity for profits.

Given that they offer a 3.6% dividend yield & have options, there may be an opportunity to buy puts here while establishing a position on the way down.

This way, you can collect interest from the dividend, while also hedging with the puts while CEMB establishes a new support level.

With their bearish MACD & oversold RSI, this could present an interesting opportunity.

Tying It All Together

I don’t think anyone is surprised that energy names & rising rate-oriented equities have been having a great run in the last few months.

The lack of confidence in consumers & emerging market corporate bonds is cause for concern though, which when paired with rising fuel prices could spell more trouble on the horizon.

Should there be a wave of defaults & an already cautious consumer, economic activity will be hampered a bit, which in turn will create an issue for the Federal Reserve, who is already somewhat cornered into taking the actions that they’ve stated as a goal for 2022.

The good news, is that spring is around the corner, so demand for energy should ease a bit, as consumers go from using it for heating to using it for traveling & recreation, which is also good for the economy in a broader sense.