Category: Market News, Research & Commentary

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF gained +0.33% over the past week, as S&P 500 stocks recovered from their early week losses over Thursday & Friday, led by NVIDIA’s strong earnings.

Their RSI is still on the overbought end of neutral at 59.79, with volumes being about average compared to the year prior.

Their MACD has been in limbo for the last few weeks while they’ve been relatively rangebound, as investors are still unsure about which direction the market is going to head in in the near-term.

SPY has support at the $416.72 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.33:1), $415.50 (10 day moving average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers 3:1), $410.48 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.57:1) & $408.90/share (50 day moving average, Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.57:1), with resistance at the $426.37 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.24:1), $438.53 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.32:1), $442.12 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.35:1)& $449.09/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.89:1) price levels.

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF gained +3.53% over the past week, as investors favored Technology names after the NVDA earnings news, causing a gap up on Thursday’s session, after gapping done the session prior.

Volumes remained relatively average compared to the year prior, with their RSI being in overbought territory at 74.35.

Their MACD is bullish, with their 10 day moving average closing in on the price range that they ended the week prior in to act as support.

QQQ has support at the $334.96 (10 day moving average, Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 3.2:1), $332.51 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 3.2:1), $320.20 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2:1) & $313.19/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 3.64:1) price levels, with resistance overhead at the $368.99 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.75:0*), $375.07 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1:0*), $378.49 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.33:1) & $401.00/share (Volume Sentiment: NULL, 0:0*)

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF gained +0.02% over the past week, finishing just above where it closed on last Friday.

Their RSI is neutral at 51.89, with volumes increasing week-over-week to be above average compared to the year prior.

Their MACD looks set to cross over bearishly in the coming days & their 10 & 50 day moving averages are both within Friday’s session’s candlestick.

IWM has support at the $175.83 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.45:1), $175.81 (10 day moving average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.45:1), $175.77 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.45:1) & $175.13/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.45:1) price levels, with resistance at the $179.33 (200 day moving average, Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.84:1), $179.78 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.84:1), $180.53 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.09:1) & $184.07/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.75:1) price levels.

Let’s dive into some of the best & worst performing market sectors, industries & geo-locations in this week’s technical analysis rating review!

NASDAQ Technology Dividend (TDIV), Japanese Hedged Equities (DXJ), Emerging Market Dividend (EDIV) & Autonomous & Electric Vehicles (DRIV) Are All Bullishly Leading The Market

TDIV, the First Trust NASDAQ Technology Dividend Fund has gained +0.59% over the past year, with a +32.73% rebound after their 52-week low in September of 2022 (ex-distributions).

Their RSI is approaching overbought territory at 65.58, on about average volume compared to the year prior.

Their MACD is bullishly climbing, with Friday’s gap up adding strength to its bullish curve.

Given market volatility & that they’re approaching their 52-week high level, investors would be smart to watch how they behave around their resistance & support levels, while eyeing where to enter a position once volatility has cooled down.

In the meantime, a protective options strategy would be beneficial, as their 2.10% distribution yield for long-term holders does not protect against much in the event of price consolidation.

TDIV has support at the $54.41 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.5:1), $54.29 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.5:1), $53.65 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.36:1) & $53.44/share (10 day moving average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.36:1) price levels, with resistance at the $55.41 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.25:1), $57.10 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.67:1), $57.12 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.67:1) & $59.19/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2:1) price levels.

DXJ, the WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity Fund has gained +24.44% over the past year, climbing +25.55% since their 52-week low in July of 2022 (ex-distributions).

They have been on a relatively steady ascent since March 2023, with exception to one week in April.

DXJ’s RSI is approaching overbought at 67.8, but recent volumes have been roughly average compared to the year prior, signaling investors have confidence.

Their MACD is beginning to curl down bearishly, after Tuesday & Wednesday’s sessions produced losses for the ETF.

DXJ is at the highest price level in its history, making caution imperative to investors.

With a 3.33% distribution yield for long-term holders there is some protection against losses, but an options strategy such as selling calls or buying puts would be advisable while waiting to see how they behave at their support levels upon consolidation.

DXJ has support at the $76.21 (10 day moving average), $73.76, $72.67, $72.04/share (50 day moving average) price levels, with no overhead resistance, as they are at their all time high price level.

As the charts below show, there is very limited volume data at these levels.

EDIV, the SPDR S&P Emerging Markets Dividend ETF has improved +4.05% over the past year, gaining +27.37% since their 52-week low in November of 2022 (ex-distributions).

Their RSI is on the overbought end of neutral at 56.86, but volumes sunk towards the end of the week into below average levels compared to the year prior, signaling uncertainty & caution among investors.

Their MACD is currently bearish, as a result of Tuesday’s gap down & Wednesday’s losing session.

EDIV offers a 4.4% distribution yield for long-term holders, but given the uncertainty in their volume & Friday’s gap up whose candlestick closed lower than it opened, there is a need to have insurance protection in the near-term, while watching their behavior around support levels.

EDIV has support at the $27.38 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.26:1), $27.14 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.26:1), $26.85 (Volume Sentiment: 1.06:1) & $26.67/share (50 day moving average; Volume Sentiment: 1.06:1) price levels, with resistance at the $27.84 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.26:1), $28.46 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.08:1), $28.58 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.08:1) & $28.64/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.08:1) price levels.

DRIV, the Global X Autonomous & Electric Vehicles ETF has fallen -4.05% over the past year, but has recovered +25.54% since their 52-week low in October of 2022 (ex-distributions).

Their RSI is approaching oversold territory as it climbed over 60 in Friday’s session, with volumes coming in at about average level.

Their MACD is still bullish due in part to Friday’s +2.46% session, as they look to retest the $23.74/share price level.

With a modest 1.04% distribution yield for long-term holders, there is not much cushion against losses, making an insurance policy essential while waiting to see how they fare in the near-term.

DRIV has support at the $23.62 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.45:1), $23.35 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.45:1), $23.25 (10 day moving average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.45:1), $23.09/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.45:1) price levels, with resistance at the $23.84 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.45:1), $23.85 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.45:1), $24.29 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.87:1) & $24.94/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.87:1) price levels.

South Africa (EZA), Base Metals (DBB), China (GXC) & Retail (XRT) Are All Bearishly Lagging The Market

EZA, the iShares MSCI South Africa ETF has lost -18.74% over the past year, falling -23.76% since their 52-week high in May of 2022 & has recovered +5.28% since their 52-week low in October of 2022 (ex-distributions).

Their RSI just exited official oversold territory & currently sites at 30.46, but very timid below average volume last week is signaling that there is still uncertainty among investors regarding their near-term performance prospects, which is confirmed by Friday’s doji candlestick.

Their MACD is still in a bearish downtrend, which became steeper after Thursday’s gap down session, where they’ll try to hold $37.20/share at support.

Despite a 4.41% cushion for long-term holders in the form of a distribution yield, a wait & see approach appears best while watching how EZA behaves at its support levels in the coming weeks, unless you are holding an insurance position with options as a hedge.

EZA has support at the $37.20 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.33:1), $36.47 (Volume Sentiment: 2.72:1), $35.35 (Volume Sentiment: 1.5:1) & $35.08/share (Volume Sentiment: 1.5:1) price levels, with resistance at the $37.72 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.33:1), $37.91 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.33:1), $38.43 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers 1.1:1) & $38.59/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers 1.1:1) price levels.

DBB, the Invesco DB Base Metals Fund ETF has fallen -21.82% over the past year, losing -24.19% since their 52-week high in June of 2022, but has reclaimed +3.05% since their 52-week low in May of 2023 (ex-distributions).

Their RSI has just recovered from oversold territory & is currently at 37.65 & their MACD has smoothed & looks to cross over bullishly in early next week after Friday’s gap up of +2.46%.

Volumes have been very low compared to average this past week, as investors will see how they feel about the $17.40-17.93 price range, with the current signal being uncertainty.

DBB’s modest 1.02% distribution yield for long-term holders provides limited downside protection, making it wisest to wait to see how their support levels hold up, with some type of hedge against possible poor performance.

DBB has support at the $17.51 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.06:1), $17.40 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.09:1), $17.31 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.09:1) & $17.27/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.09:1) price levels, with resistance at the $18.10 (10 day moving average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.2:1), $18.15 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.2:1), $18.58 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.15:1) & $18.86/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.15:1) price levels.

GXC, the SPDR S&P China ETF has shed -9.21% over the past year, declining -21.39% from their 52-week high in June of 2022, but has reclaimed +22.85% since their 52-week low in October of 2022 (ex-distributions).

Their MACD is still in bearish descent, despite their RSI spiking after Friday’s +1.5% session to settle at 36.66.

Volumes has been above average the last 3 sessions, with Friday’s session attempting to fill in the gap down caused by Thursday’s session.

GXC offers a 2.84% distribution yield for long-term shareholders, which provides a slight cushion against losses, but they do not appear to be out of the woods just yet, as investors should be eyeing where to target an entry in less volatile markets.

GXC has support at the $73.55 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 36:1), $72.46 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 2.75:1), $70.08 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 4.73:1) & $69.21/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2:1) price levels, with resistance at the $74.63 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 4.33:1), $76.03 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 36:1), $76.23 (10 day moving average; Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 36:1) & $76.71/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 36:1) price levels.

XRT, the SPDR S&P Retail ETF has lost -16.06% over the past year, losing -22.41% since their 52-week high in April of 2022, while climbing back +11.19% from their 52-week low in September of 2022 (ex-distributions).

Their RSI climbed to 38.22 after Friday’s +0.83% session, which had higher than average volume.

Their MACD is still bearish, but is flatting out to attempt a bullish cross in the coming week.

XRT’s 2.41% distribution yield is a small cushion against potential losses, but unless you’re hedging against a position there is still more risk than worth taking here, but eyeing their behavior at support will give clues as to what levels to buy at when markets have calmed down.

XRT has support at the $58.01 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2.9:1), $57.61 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.93:1), $57.28 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.93:1) & $56.44/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 20:1) price levels, with resistance overhead at the $58.60 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2.9:1), $58.80 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2.9:1), $58.97 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 2.9:1) & $59.19/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.47:1) price levels.

Tying It All Together

Monday the markets will be closed in observance of Memorial Day, so there will be no data being reported, nor earnings reports; thank you to all readers who have served our country.

Tuesday’s data kicks off with the S&P Case-Schiller Home Price Index (20 cities) at 9 am, followed by Consumer Confidence at 10 am & Richmond Fed President Barkin speaking at 1pm.

Tuesday’s earnings include Ambarella, Box, Canopy Growth, Hewlett Packard Enterprise, HP & Sportsman’s Warehouse.

ADP Employment data is reported Wednesday at 8:15 am, followed by the Chicago Business Barometer at 9:45 am, Job Openings at 10 am, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker speaking at 12:30 pm & the Federal Reserve Beige Book at 2pm.

Salesforce is the most anticipated earnings call on Wednesday, along with Advanced Auto Parts, C3.ai, Chewy, Conn’s, CrowdStrike, GameStop, NetApp, Nordstrom, Victoria’s Secret & others.

Thursday at 8:30 am we get Initial Jobless Claims & U.S. Productivity data, with IS&P U.S. Manufacturing PMI data at 9:45 am, ISM Manufacturing & Construction Spending data at 10 am & Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker speaking at 1pm.

Thursday’s earnings calls include Broadcom, Lululemon Athletica, Cooper, Dell Technologies, Dollar General, Five Below, Hormel Foods, Macy’s, MongoDB, VMware & more.

Friday the week winds down at 8:30 am when we get U.S. Employment Report, U.S. Unemployment Rate, U.S. Hourly Wages & Hourly Wages Year-Over-Year reported, with limited earnings calls being held.

See you back here next week!

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARE OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM, TDIV, DXJ, EDIV, DRIV, EZA, DBB, GXC or XRT AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF gained +1.71% over the past week, as investors tried to sort through the results of earnings calls, changes in companies’ guidance, the fallout of the bank failure issues, future inflation curbing measures from the Fed & the U.S. Debt Ceiling debacle.

After starting the week off in the same consolidation range as last week, Wednesday & Thursday’s sessions showed signs of optimism from investors, with Friday’s session bringing SPY back to reality a bit after two strong days.

Their RSI is on the overbought end of neutral at 60.83, with last week’s volumes starting off below average compared to the year prior, before increasing Wednesday through Friday.

Their MACD is currently bullish, but Monday’s session will provide more technical insights into which direction they are likely to go in for the next week, as Monday’s session has to the potential to create a Dark Cloud Cover pattern, which would be a bearish signal to kick off the week.

SPY has support at the $416.72 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.33:1), $413.66 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 3:1), $410.48 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.57:1) & $407.06/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.9:1) price levels, with resistance at the $426.37 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.24:1), $438.53 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.32:1), $442.12 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.35:1) & $449.09/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.89:1) price levels.

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF jumped +3.53% over the past week, as investors showed favor to the tech-heavy NASDAQ index vs. the S&P 500 & Russell 2000.

Their day-by-day results were quite similar to SPY’s, although Monday & Tuesday were both days of slight gains that remained in last week’s consolidation range, before Wednesday & Thursday’s major bullish sessions & Friday’s spinning top candlestick.

QQQ’s RSI is overbought at 71.36 & their past week’s volume followed a similar pattern to SPY’s.

Their MACD is also currently bullish, but beginning to show signals of rolling over bearishly in the coming days.

QQQ has support at the $332.51 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 3.2:1) , $328.05 (10 day moving average; Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1.8:1), $315.99 (50 day moving average; Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 3.64:1) & $312.16/share (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 3.64:1) price levels, with resistance at the $346.78 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.31:1), $368.99 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 0.75:0*), $375.07 (Volume Sentiment: Sellers, 1:0*) & $378.49/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.33:1) price levels.

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF gained +1.96% over the past week, as investors showed more favor to smaller cap stocks than the S&P 500 index, but still were not able to perform as strongly as the NASDAQ names.

They too kicked off the first two days of the week in the same range as last week, before Wednesday & Thursday produced big gains, which were brought back to reality during Friday’s session.

Their RSI is neutral at 52.69, with volumes becoming above average compared to the year prior from Wednesday through Friday of this past week.

Their MACD is also bullish, but beginning to signal that it may roll over bearishly in the coming sessions.

IWM has support at the $175.83 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.45:1) , $175.77 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.45:1), $174.71 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.45:1) & $174.70/share (50 day moving average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.45:1 ) price levels, with resistance at the $179.65 (200 day moving average; Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.84:1), $179.78 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.84:1), $184.07 (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.75:1) & $185.95/share (Volume Sentiment: Buyers, 1.75:1) price levels.

Let’s dive into some of the best & worst performing sectors, industries & geo-locations based on our technical analysis ratings of their relevant ETFs!

Semiconductors (SOXL), Argentina (ARGT), Germany (EWG) & Telecommunication Services (FCOM) Are All Bullishly Leading The Market

SOXL, the Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3x Shares ETF has fallen -13.76% over the past year, but has recovered a remarkable +180.03% from their 52-week low in October of 2022 (ex-distributions).

They had a very strong week last week, climbing +23.33% during the course of the past five trading sessions.

Their RSI is nearing overbought at 65.33 & recent trading volumes have been below average compared to the year prior, signaling that investors & traders still are feeling uncertain as to where they value SOXL’s shares.

Their MACD is bullish, with their 10 day moving average poised to cross bullishly through their 50 day moving average in the next trading session.

Given their technicals & broader market volatility, it would be wisest to watch their behavior around their support levels, while using a defensive options strategy as insurance, as their 0.7% distribution yield for long-term holders does not provide much cushion against losses.

SOXL has support at the $16.77, $16.51, $16.44 & $15.46/share (50 day moving average) price levels, with resistance at the $17.49, $17.56, $17.80 & $18.34/share price levels.

ARGT, the Global X MSCI Argentina ETF has gained +41.58% over the past year, posting a +75.01% gain since their 52-week low in July of 2022 (ex-distributions).

Their last two sessions have had hanging man/spinning top candlesticks, which is signaling a bearish near-term outlook for ARGT.

Their MACD is signaling a bearish crossover is imminent & their RSI is bearishly moving back towards the neutral point of 50.

Trading volumes for the first three sessions of the week looked above/about average compared to the year prior, but the last two sessions produced limited volume, signaling caution among investors on ARGT.

While they provide a 2.04% distribution yield for long-term holders, a defensive options strategy such as buying puts or selling calls would be wiser than entering a long position now, while waiting to see how their price behaves around their support levels in the near-term.

ARGT has support at the $40.70 (10 day moving average), $40.64, $40.50 & $38.99/share (50 day moving average) price levels, with resistance at the $40.80, $41.59, $41.77 & $41.96/share price levels.

EWG, the iShares MSCI Germany ETF has improved +15.8% over the past year, climbing +51.52% since their 52-week low in September of 2022 (ex-distributions).

Their MACD is currently bearish, but moving towards a bullish crossover in the coming sessions, but a shooting star candlestick from Friday’s session shows that there may be a consolidation coming in the near-term.

Their RSI is on the overbought end of neutral at 57.36, and recent trading volumes have been below average, confirming that uncertainty that investors are feeling regarding their share price.

EWG offers a 2.73% distribution yield for long-term holders which will provide some cushion against losses, but trading options around their current price levels will provide a better form of insurance while waiting to see how they behave at key support levels in the near-term.

EWG has support at the $29.08 (10 day moving average), $28.91, $28.49 (50 day moving average) & $28.20/share price levels, with resistance at the $29.56, $29.86, $30.26 & $30.84/share price levels.

FCOM, the Fidelity MSCI Telecommunication Services Index ETF has gained +1.72% over the past year, climbing +28.37% from their 52-week low in November of 2022 (ex-distributions).

Friday’s session has caused their MACD to begin taking a turn towards a bearish crossover in the coming sessions, but this past week’s volume was also subpar compared to the year prior.

Their RSI is moving back towards neutral from a more overbought position earlier in the week.

Their modest 0.89% distribution yield will not provide much protection against losses, making an options strategy the best bet while waiting to see where to enter a long-term position.

FCOM has support at the $37.89, $37.47, $37.35 (10 day moving average) & $37.16/share price levels, with resistance at the $38.39, $39.35, $39.50 & $40.73/share price levels.

Regional Banking (KRE), Clean Energy (PBW), Metals & Mining (XME) & Turkey (TUR) Are All Bearishly Lagging The Market

KRE, the SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF has lost -32.8% over the past year, losing -43% from their 52-week high in August of 2022, but recovering +13.59% from their 52-week low in May of 2023 (ex-distributions).

After a small rebound early in the week, an ominous hanging man candle concluded the week on both Thursday & Friday, signaling that investors are not feeling optimistic on their share price in the near-term.

Their MACD is bullish, but beginning to curl over bearishly & their RSI bounced off of neutral earlier in the week, but has begun bearishly declining again.

While volumes are above average compared to the year prior, they are below average for the last few months, which is when regional banks began to get in trouble, showing more uncertainty among investors.

KRE offers a 3.81% distribution yield, which is a decent cushion against losses for long-term holders, but any position should be accompanied by an options strategy in the near-term, as we wait to see how these banks fare.

KRE has support at the $37.79 (10 day moving average), $35.76 & $34.52/share price levels, with resistance at the $41.28, $41.44, $41.57 & $41.84/share (50 day moving average) price levels.

PBW, the Invesco WilderHill Clean Energy ETF has fallen -24.88% over the past year, losing -44.85% since their 52-week high in August of 2022, while recovering +6.65% since their 52-week low in May of 2023 (ex-distributions).

Their MACD is signaling that momentum is being lost, with their RSI beginning to bearishly decline after crossing over the neutral 50 mark recently.

All of their candles for the past week have been consolidated in a tight range, with very weak volume, signaling that investors are still not confident in their price level.

Their 5.2% distribution yield is a decent cushion for long-term holders, but investors would be wise to wait & see how they behave at their existing support levels before buying long shares, unless they are employing an insurance policy using options.

PBW has support at the $35.73 & $33.67/share price levels, with resistance at the $35.95, $36.11, $36.53 & $36.87 (50 day moving average) price levels.

XME, the SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF has dropped -5.26% over the past year, losing -20.7% since their 52-week high in March of 2023, but has recovered +17.95% since their 52-week low in July of 2022 (ex-distributions).

After a recent death cross last week, their MACD has been unable to manage a bullish crossover & has moved relatively flat for the past couple of weeks.

Their RSI is moving towards the oversold level of 30, with recent trading volumes being about average compared to the year prior.

Their price has spent the past week consolidated in a narrow range, signaling uncertainty among investors.

XME offers a 1.98% distribution yield for long-term holders, but that provides limited insurance against losses, calling for a defensive options strategy to be in place while waiting out to see how their support levels hold up in the near-term.

XME has support at the $46.33, $46.08, $45.12 & $43.07/share price levels, with resistance at the $47.04, $47.12, $47.25 & $47.69/share (10 day moving average) price levels.

TUR, the iShares MSCI Turkey ETF has gained +50.1% over the past year, including a +66% gain since their 52-week low in July of 2022, but has fallen -22.92% since their 52-week high achieved in the first trading session of 2023 (ex-distributions).

Their MACD is bearish, as is their RSI which is trending its way back towards the oversold mark at 30.

Recent trading volumes have been above average compared to the year prior, signaling that investors think that their price level is valued below their two day gap up range that they tried to establish earlier in May.

With a 2.48% cushion for protection against losses from their distribution yield, there are other gaps that need to be filled in the near-term that support levels may not be able to protect.

TUR has support at the $29.41, $29.35, $29.24 & $29.09/share price levels, with resistance at the $30.35 (200 day moving average), $30.76 (10 day moving average), $31.07 & $31.80/share price levels.

Tying It All Together

This week is relatively quiet on the data front until Friday, compared to prior weeks in terms of the number of announcements.

Monday morning at 8:30 am St. Louis President James Bullard speaks, followed by San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly at 11 am & Atlanta Fed President Bostic & Richmond Fed President Barkin speaking at 11:05 am.

Monday’s earnings calls include Global-E Online, HEICO, Nordson & Zoom Video Communications.

Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan speaks at 9 am on Tuesday, followed by S&P Flash U.S. Services PMI & S&P Flash U.S. Manufacturing PMI data at 9:45 am & New Home Sales data at 10 am.

Lowe’s Agilent, AutoZone, BJ’s Wholesale, Dick’s Sporting Goods, Intuit, Palo Alto Networks, Toll Brothers, Urban Outfitters, Williams-Sonoma & others will report earnings on Tuesday.

On Wednesday Fed Governor Waller speaks at 12:40 pm & at 2pm the Fed’s May FOMC Minutes are released.

Wednesday’s earnings calls include Nvidia, Abercrombie & Fitch, Digital Turbine, Kohl’s, Petco Health & Wellness, Snowflake, Splunk, The Children’s Place & more.

Thursday morning kicks off at 8:30 am with the GDP (second reading) & Initial Jobless Claims data, followed up with Richmond Fed President Barkin speaking at 9:50 am & at 10 am the Pending Home Sales data being reported.

Dollar Tree, 23andMe, Best Buy, Burlington Stores, Costco Wholesale, Deckers Outdoor, Gap, Manchester United, Nutanix, Pinduoduo, Ralph Lauren, Royal Bank of Canada, Titan Machinery, Toronto-Dominion Bank, Ulta Beauty, WMware, Workday & many other names will report earnings on Thursday.

Friday morning at 8:30 am we get the bulk of the week’s data reports, which include Durable-goods Orders, Durable-goods Minus Transportation, Person Income (nominal), Personal Spending (nominal), PCE Index, Core PCE Index, PCE (Y-o-Y), Core PCE (Y-o-Y), Advanced U.S. Trade Balance in Goods, Advanced Retail Inventories & Advanced Wholesale Inventories, with Consumer Sentiment (final) data coming in at 10 am.

Friday’s earnings calls conclude with Big Lots, Booz Allen Hamilton, Buckle & Hibbett reporting.

See you back here next week!

***I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM, SOXL, ARGT, EWG, FCOM, KRE, PBW, XME or TUR AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE***

On Friday afternoon I found myself at happy hour, pen in hand, modeling out volume data on some of my holdings & hedges.

I was mostly interested in seeing how the volume has been at their support & resistance levels, as well as at & around the strike prices of my options contracts, which led me to the idea of doing the same exercise (in Excel this time) for ETFs that track the major stock indexes.

The methodology is relatively simple (feel free to skip ahead to the data in the next heading section if this portion is not of interest); first, look at the Point & Figure charts’ time horizons & match the candlestick charts to the closest time period (based on my account permissions), then find the resistance & support levels on the candlestick charts for said time period.

After, using the Volume By Price layover data on the Point & Figure charts, I looked at the Buyer vs. Seller Volume at each price level & recorded the volume trends for each price level’s relevant box as a ratio & applied the data to the individual support/resistance/strike prices (my notebook exercise had more layers of relevant detail & indicators to my specific trades, but this is what is being used in the following article).

Below I apply that methodology to SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF, QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF which tracks the NASDAQ, IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF & DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF to see how investor sentiment is at all of these levels throughout this relatively sideways market period to see what additional insights of value it can provide towards future market performance.

Those ETFs were chosen due to their coverage of the major U.S. market indexes, but the methodology can be applied to other securities as well, with further customizations.

The data & tables presented below are meant to serve as a reference guide to trader/investor sentiment for each price level being presented.

Please note that some of the observed data may not be complete/was unable to be accounted for (most likely due to sampling), leading to some ratio figures that are unconventional, which are all marked with a “*” & can be referenced in any of the images that accompany each section.

The following is meant to serve as a reference to how market participants have behaved historically at these price levels & is neither investment advice nor recommendations of any kind.

SPY, The S&P 500 ETF’s Volume Analysis At Support & Resistance Points

SPY, the ETF that is most often referred to for tracking the returns of the S&P 500’s Point & Figure Chart is below, showing the volume overlays along with the 10 & 50 day moving averages & support lines for a period of roughly the past 2 years.

As the chart goes back ~2 years, I selected the 2 year SPY candlestick chart as well to make them match as closest as possible, given the limitations of the toolset that I was using, where we are able to see the support & resistance levels for that time period, as well as the moving averages & other indicator data.

SPY closed on Friday 5/12/2023 at $411.49/share, which would place it in the Point & Figure percentage box range for the $408/share price level.

At $408/share over the past year, SPY’s volume has favored the Sellers by 1.57:1 (I counted the boxes by hand/estimated the fraction of boxes, this did not come from raw data).

The $412/share box covers all prices that go from $412.00-$415.99, where Buyers are dominating the volume 3:1, which is one of the 5 strongest price levels in terms of their ratio.

The $404/share box covers $404-$407.99 SPY prices, where the Sellers are favored 1.90:1, before from $400 down to $392 the Buyers are back in control historically for the time period covered (1.133:1, 1.45:1 & 1.87:1, respectively), before the Sellers take back over from $388 down until $364.

SPY’s current closest Resistance Levels for the time period, as well as their volume ratings are below:

$412.47 – Buyers – 3:1

$416.49 – Sellers – 1.33:1

$416.72 – Sellers – 1.33:1

$417.62 – Sellers – 1.33:1

$426.37 – Sellers – 1.24:1

$438.53 – Sellers – 1.32:1

$442.12 – Sellers – 1.35:1

$449.09 – Buyers – 1.89:1

$454.37 – Sellers – 1.25:1

$462.58 – Buyers – 1.5:0*

$470.52 – Buyers – 3.33:1

SPY’s Support Levels within that time period are below (BOLD denotes a moving average):

$411.24 – Sellers – 1.57:1 (10 DMA)

$410.48 – Sellers – 1.57:1

$407.06 – Sellers – 1.9:1

$406.62 – Sellers- 1.9:1

$404.42 – Sellers – 1.9:1 (50 DMA)

$402.55 – Buyers – 1.13:1

$394.15 – Buyers – 1.87:1 (200 DMA)

$388.28 – Sellers – 1.5:1

$379.20 – Sellers – 1.63:1

$374.20 – Sellers – 1.37:1

$373.34 – Sellers – 1.37:1

$366.43 – Sellers – 3.71:1

$357.67 – Sellers – 2.2:0*

$345.2 – NULL – 0:0*

SPY’s Point & Figure price levels are listed below, with their respective volume sentiment:

$472 – NULL – 1:1

$468 – Buyers – 3.33:1

$464 – Sellers – 3.33:1

$460 – Buyers – 1.5:0*

$456 – Buyers – 1.53:1

$452 – Sellers – 1.25:1

$448 – Buyers – 1.89:1

$444 – Buyers – 1.14:1

$440 – Sellers – 1.35:1

$436 – Sellers – 1.32:1

$432 – Buyers – 4.25:1

$428 – Sellers – 1.56:1

$424 – Sellers – 1.24:1

$420 – Sellers – 1.30:1

$416 – Sellers – 1.33:1

$412 – Buyers – 3:1

$408 – Sellers – 1.57:1

$404 – Sellers – 1.90:1

$400 – Buyers – 1.13:1

$396 – Buyers – 1.45:1

$392 – Buyers – 1.87:1

$388 – Sellers – 1.5:1

$384 – Sellers – 2.38:1

$372 – Sellers – 1.37:1

$380 – Sellers – 2.14:1

$376 – Sellers – 1.63:1

$368 – Sellers – 1.91:1

$364 – Sellers – 3.71:1

$360 – NULL – 3:3

$356 – Sellers – 2.2:0*

$352 – Sellers – 3:0*

$348 – NULL 0:0*

$344 – NULL – 0:0*

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust, Tracking The NASDAQ ETF’s Volume Analysis At Support & Resistance Points

The QQQ ETF is often used as a proxy for the performance of the NASDAQ index & closed at $325.03/share on Friday 5/12/2023.

Their Point & Figure chart was closer to a year & a half, so a two year candlestick chart was selected in order to observe their support & resistance levels.

At $325.03, QQQ is currently in the $324/share box range, which for the past year & a half has been dominated by Buyers, at a rate of 5.3:1.

The neighboring $328/share box is a Sellers range at 1.8:1, and the neighboring 3 higher levels have also been dominated by Sellers in this time period (3.2:1, 1.69:1 & 1.2:1), with the $320/share box also being a Sellers range at a rate of 2:1.

QQQ’s Resistance Levels For The Past Two Years & Their Volume Sentiment:

$331.19 – Sellers – 1.8:1

$332.51 – Sellers – 3.2:1

$346.78 – Buyers – 1.31:1

$368.99 – Buyers – 0.75:0*

$375.07 – Sellers – 1:0*

$378.49 – Buyers – 1.33:1

$401 – NULL – 0:0*

$404.58 – NULL – 0:0*

QQQ’s Support Levels for that time period are below (BOLD denotes moving average level):

$321.96 – Sellers – 2:1 (10 DMA)

$315.44 – Sellers – 3.64:1

$313.19 – Sellers – 3.64:1

$312.50 – Seller s- 3.64:1 (50 DMA)

$312.16 – Sellers – 3.64:1

$309.30 – Buyers – 1.55:1

$294.88 – Buyers – 1.14:1

$294.59 – Buyers – 1.14:1

$294.13 – Buyers – 1.14:1 (200 DMA)

$284.75 – Sellers – 1.87:1

$283.06 – Buyers – 1.79:1

$278.07 – Sellers – 1.72:1

$259.33 – Sellers – 2.25:0*

$258.06 – Sellers – 2.25:0*

$253.26 – NULL – 0:0*

QQQ’s Point & Figure price levels are listed below, with their respective volume sentiment:

$404 – NULL – 0:0*

$400 – NULL – 0:0*

$396 – Sellers – 1.43:1

$392 – Sellers – 1.2:1

$388 – Buyers – 0.75:0*

$384 – Sellers – 4:1

$380 – Sellers – 2.69:1

$376 – Buyers – 1.33:1

$372 – Sellers – 1:0*

$368 – Buyers – 0.75:0*

$364 – Sellers – 1.16:1

$360 – Buyers – 2.5:1

$356 – Sellers – 2:1

$352 – Buyers – 1.67:1

$348 – NULL – 1:1

$344 – Buyers – 1.31:1

$340 – Sellers – 1.2:1

$336 – Sellers – 1.69:1

$332 – Sellers – 3.2:1

$328 – Sellers – 1.8:1

$324 – Buyers – 3.5:1

$320 – Sellers – 2:1

$316 – Buyers – 1.24:1

$312 – Sellers – 3.64:1

$308 – Buyers – 1.55:1

$304 – Buyers – 1.03:1

$300 – Sellers – 2.22:1

$296 – Buyers – 2.97:1

$292 – Buyers – 1.14:1

$288 – Sellers – 1.77:1

$284 – Sellers – 1.87:1

$280 – Buyers – 1.79:1

$276 – Sellers – 1.72:1

$272 – Buyers – 1.05:1

$268 – Sellers – 1.72:1

$264 – 1.33:1

$260 – Sellers – 2.5:1

$256 – Sellers – 2.25:0*

$252 – NULL – 0:0*

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF’s Volume Analysis At Support & Resistance Points

IWM, the ETF commonly used as a proxy for the performance of the Russell 2,000 small cap stocks had roughly a year & a half chart when I loaded their Point & Figure data, calling for a two year chart for the candlestick resources.

IWM closed at $172.72/share on Friday 5/12/2023, placing it in the $172/share box, which is currently dominated by the Sellers at a rate of 1.47:1.

The next box above IWM’s current price level is $174, which has been won by the Buyers at a rate of 1.45:1 over the past 2 years, with their next leg lower being the $170 range, which has also been a Seller dominated zone at a rate of 2.17:1 in that time period.

IWM’s Resistance Levels For The Past Two Years & Their Volume Sentiment (BOLD denotes moving averages):

$173.20 – Sellers – 1.47:1 (10 DMA)

$174.71 – Buyers – 1.45:1

$175.77 – Buyers – 1.45:1

$175.79 – Buyers – 1.45:1 (50 DMA)

$179.78 – Buyers – 1.84:1

$179.90 – Buyers – 1.84:1 (200 DMA)

$184.56 – Buyers – 1.75:1

$187.32 – Buyers – 1.91:1

$187.89 – Buyers – 1.91:1

$188 – Sellers – 1.19:1

$188.45 – Sellers – 1.19:1

$198.53 – Buyers – 1.5:1

$199.29 – Buyers – 1.5:1

$201.63 – Buyers – 2.27:1

$204.07 – Buyers – 1.5:1

$205.03 – Buyers – 1.5:1

$205.31 – Buyers – 1.5:1

$205.67 – Buyers – 1.5:1

$206.19 – Buyers – 1.5:1

$208.28 – Buyers – 0.25:0*

$208.87 – Buyers – 0.25:0*

$209.12 – Buyers – 0.25:0*

$215.87 – NULL – 0:0*

$219.85 – NULL – 0:0*

$223.07 – NULL – 0:0*

$224.37 – NULL – 0:0*

$239.36 – N/A*

IWM’s Support Levels for that time period are below:

$169.71 – NULL – 1:1

$168.78 – NULL – 1:1

$167.46 – Sellers – 2.65:1

$166.21 – Sellers – 2.65:1

$164.79 – Sellers – 3.57:1

$161.16 – NULL – 1:1

$160.61 – NULL – 0:0*

IWM’s Point & Figure price levels are listed below, with their respective volume sentiment:

$212 – NULL – 0:0*

$208 – Buyers – 0.25:0*

$204 – Buyers – 1.5:1

$200 – Buyers – 2.27:1

$198 – Buyers – 1.5:1

$196 – Buyers – 1.31:1

$194 – Sellers – 2.25:1

$192 – Buyers – 1.67:1

$190 – Buyers – 5.4:1

$188 – Sellers – 1.19:1

$186 – Buyers – 1.91:1

$184 – Buyers – 1.75:1

$182 – Sellers – 1.23:1

$180 – Sellers – 1.09:1

$178 – Buyers – 1.84:1

$176 – Sellers – 1.06:1

$174 – Buyers – 1.45:1

$172 – Sellers – 1.47:1

$170 – Sellers – 2.17:1

$168 – NULL – 1:1

$166 – Sellers – 2.65:1

$164 – Sellers – 3.57:1

$162 – NULL – 1:1

$160 – NULL – 0:0*

DIA, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF’s Volume Analysis At Support & Resistance Points

DIA is an ETF that is used to track the performance of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, whose Point & Figure Chart had closer to 3 year’s worth of data in the view, which called for using a 3 year candlestick chart for finding support & resistance levels.

DIA closed at $333.20/share on 5/12/2023, placing it in the $332 box in the data, which is currently favoring the Buyers 1.20:1.

The next 2 higher boxes are both in favor of the Buyers ($336 = 1.01:1 & $340 = 1.71:1), with the next 4 lower boxes being in favor of the Sellers ($328 = 1.35:1, $324 = 1.19:1, $320 = 1.4:1 & $316 = 1.88:1).

DIA’s Resistance Levels For The Past Two Years & Their Volume Sentiment (BOLD denotes moving averages):

$335.34 – Buyers – 1.2:1 (10 DMA)

$337.93 – Buyers – 1.01:1

$341.87 – Buyers – 1.71:1

$342.59 – Buyers – 1.71:1

$344.98 – NULL – 1:1

$345.46 – NULL – 1:1

$347.76 – NULL – 1:1

$349.47 – Buyers – 1.5:1

$355.21 -Sellers – 1.25:1

$360.33 – NULL – 0:0*

DIA’s Support Levels for that time period are below (BOLD denotes moving average levels):

$331.34 – Sellers – 1.35:1 (50 DMA)

$331.26 – Buyers – 1.01:1

$327.05 – Sellers – 1.19:1

$326.30 – Sellers – 1.19:1

$325.40 – Sellers – 1.19:1 (200 DMA)

$323.80 – Sellers – 1.4:1

$323.27 – Sellers – 1.4:1

$315.39 – Buyers – 1.45:1

$313.96 – Buyers – 1.45:1

$300.85 – NULL – 1:1

$296.81 – Sellers – 1.37:1

$291.81 – NULL – 1:1

$283.60 – Buyers – 1.5:1

$277.07 – Buyers – 3:1

$262.24 – Buyers – 1.33:1

$250.19 – Buyers – 3.5:1

$236.36 – Sellers – 5:1

DIA’s Point & Figure price levels are listed below, with their respective volume sentiment:

$364 – NULL – 0:0*

$360 – NULL – 0:0*

$356 – Buyers – 0.5:0*

$352 – Sellers – 1.25:1

$348 – Buyers – 1.5:1

$344 – NULL – 1:1

$340 -Buyers – 1.71:1

$336 – Buyers – 1.01:1

$332 – Buyers – 1.20:1

$328 – Sellers – 1.35:1

$324 – Sellers – 1.19:1

$320 – Sellers – 1.4:1

$316 – Sellers – 1.88:1

$312 – Buyers – 1.45:1

$308 – Sellers – 1.67:1

$304 – Buyers – 1.4:1

$300 – NULL – 1:1

$296 – Sellers – 1.37:1

$292 – Sellers – 1.25:1

$288 – NULL – 1:1

$284 – Sellers – 1.25:1

$280 – Buyers – 1.5:1

$276 – Buyers – 3:1

$272 – Buyers – 1.67:1

$268 – Sellers – 1.25:1

$264 – Buyers – 1.4:1

$260 – Buyers – 1.33:1

$256 – Buyers – 1.67:1

$252 – Buyers – 1.07:1

$248 – Buyers – 3.5:1

$244 – Buyers – 3.5:1

$240 – Buyers – 1.25:1

$236 – Sellers – 5:1

$232 – NULL – 1:1

$228 – Sellers – 0.25:0*

$224 – Buyers – 0.6:0*

$220 – Sellers – 0.25:0*

$216 – NULL – 0:0*

Tying It All Together

Volume is one of the best indicators of investor sentiment that can be applied to any time frame, price level, or price range to help paint a better picture of the market’s behavior.

While it does not predict what will happen in the future as market conditions are ever changing & new variables may be of more importance now than they were when these volume levels were read, it can provide a reference as to how investors may behave when the same levels are approached again.

This document was intended to show investor sentiment at levels of support & resistance that are currently relevant to their price levels, while also providing more widespread data that can be used as prices move away from the levels of support & resistance mentioned above.

It can be combined with a current analysis of markets to give more clarity into how investors have historically behaved when prices have been in the price levels listed during the relevant time periods to provide additional detail to your analysis.

It is not intended to serve as investment recommendations or advice.

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM or DIA AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF lost -0.25% over the past week & remained in the same range that it’s been in for the past month & a half.

Uncertainty is still in the air, as the last few days’ candlesticks could characterize the past week as “the week of the hanging man”.

SPY’s RSI is still neutral at 53, with volumes slightly dipping from the previous weeks, but remaining in-line with the year prior’s average volume range.

Their MACD is still bearish, but both lines are moving relatively flat as a result of the previous month’s trading range still being in tact.

SPY has support at the $411.24 (10 day moving average), $410.48, $407.06 & $406.62/share price levels, with resistance at the $416.49, $416.72, $417.62 & $426.37/share price levels.

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF climbed +0.66% over the past week, after getting off to a slow start on Monday followed by an upside pivot on Wednesday.

Much like SPY, their past week is also marred with uncertainty when you look at the candles, with Wednesday & Friday being hanging men & Thursday being a spinning top, all of whom’s real bodies stayed relatively in-line with one another.

QQQ’s RSI is on the oversold end of neutral at 60.52, but their volume has waned a bit compared to the year prior’s average this past week.

Their MACD is also relatively flat, with both lines sitting atop one another waiting for the catalyst that will send it in one direction or another.

QQQ has support at the $321.96 (10 day moving average), $313.19, $312.96 (50 day moving average) & $312.16/share price levels, with resistance at the $331.19, $332.51, $346.78 & $368.99/share price levels (resistance levels required a 2 year chart view).

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF declined -0.99% over the past week, as investors fled from smaller cap names, mostly in favor of the larger NASDAQ components.

They too were not spared the uncertainty, with a week filled with hanging men & spinning top candlesticks as traders & investors await a signal as to which direction to move in.

Their RSI is on the more oversold end of neutral at 44.8, but trading volumes have remained relatively close to average compared to the year prior.

Their MACD is also in the same state of limbo as SPY’s & QQQ’s, although it is currently giving a slightly bullish reading.

IWM has support at the $172.67, $169.71, $169.05 & $168.78/share price levels, with resistance at the $173.20 (10 day moving average), 174.63, $174.71 & $175.13/share price levels.

Let’s dive into some of the best & worst performing market sectors & geo-locations based on this week’s technical analysis ratings!

Mexico (MEXX), U.S. Home Construction (ITB), Brazil Small Caps (BRF) & Global Gold Miners (RING) Are All Bullishly Leading The Market

MEXX, the Direxion Daily MSCI Mexico Bull 3x Shares ETF has climbed an impressive +84.8% over the past year, gaining an even more impressive +158.51% since their 52-week low in May of 2022 (ex-distributions).

After a year of explosive growth, MEXX’s volumes have declined to well below average compared to the year prior, signaling uncertainty in the near-term by investors.

Their RSI at 62 is on the overbought end of neutral & their MACD is beginning to show signs of a near-term bearish crossover, after two days of declines to fill the window following Wednesday’s gap up.

MEXX offers a 1.05% distribution yield to long-term holders, which will not provide much cushion against any impending consolidation or correction from their current high range for the past year.

This makes it important for investors to have a defensive options strategy in place for insurance such as buying puts or selling calls while they watch to see how MEXX behaves around support levels.

MEXX has support at the $146.11 (10 day moving average), $145.23, $139.39 & $138.11/share price levels, as they try to break out & above their $156.14, $159.55 & $162.16/share resistance levels (latter 2 are from 2019).

For investors who find too much risk in a 3x leveraged ETF, it is possible to get Mexico exposure via the EWW ETF, which was featured in our 4/23/2023 Weekly Notes.

ITB, the iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF has added +30.94% over the past year, improving +57.58% since their 52 week low in June of 2022 (ex-distributions).

Much like MEXX, ITB & the U.S. Home Construction industry have been very bullish over the past year, but their volumes have waned less in recent days vs. MEXX & are much closer to average compared to the year prior’s levels.

This past week they remained relatively rangebound, with all of the real bodies of their candlesticks remaining at the same general price level, as traders & investors look for a catalyst to push them in one direction or another.

Their RSI is on the overbought end of neutral at 62, but their MACD has bearishly crossed over after spending the past week in a consolidation range.

With a modest 0.68% distribution yield for long-term holders there is limited cushion against losses from these steep price levels, making an insurance strategy against losses appealing while watching to see how they behave around their support levels in the near-term.

ITB has support at the $75.58 (10 day moving average), $73.75, $70.82 (50 day moving average) & $67.69, with resistance overhead at the $77.02, $77.51 & $82.52/share price levels (last 2 resistance levels are from 2021).

We also featured XHB, the SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF in our 4/30/2023 weekly market review notes.

BRF, the VanEck Vectors Brazil Small-Cap ETF has fallen -3.89% over the past year, while rebounding +26.05% since their 52-week low in March of 2023 (ex-distributions).

While they have fallen over the past year, their recent recovery in 2023 has shown strength compared to other ETFs, giving them a higher ranking in our system.

Their RSI is overbought currently at 72 after Wednesday’s gap up, but investor sentiment is signaling weakness in the past week as their volumes feel to below average compared to the year prior & their last three candlesticks all remained relatively closely aligned with one another’s real bodies.

Their MACD is still bullish & their 10 day moving average crossed through their 200 day moving average on Thursday of this past week.

With a 3.63% cushion against losses from their distribution yield for long-term shareholders, there is more protection against losses than some other names in this article, but a defensive options strategy would be wise to have as their RSI is signaling a near-term cooldown.

BRF has support at the $15.07, $15.05, $15.04 & $14.99/share price levels, as they try to resistance at the $15.94, $15.95, $16.08 & $16.25/share price levels.

In our April 2, 2023 Market Notes we also covered the BRZU ETF, the Direxion Daily Brazil Bull 2x Shares ETF, which some traders & investors may find more suitable for their portfolio strategy.

RING, the iShares MSCI Global Gold Miners ETF, has gained +7.15% over the past year, adding +55.3% since their 52-week low in September of 2022 (ex-distributions).

Their MACD has been in bearish decline over the past week, as their RSI dipped just under neutral to 47.

Recent volumes are showing indecisiveness in where investors value their shares, falling to below average levels for the year prior, with their past week’s candlesticks signaling an impending slide that was capped off with a hammer to close Friday’s session & temporarily slow their losses.

RING offers a 1.96% distribution yield, which provides a slight cushion for long-term holders, but like the other names mentioned above, they are best approached with a defensive options strategy while watching how they behave at their support levels in the near-term.

RING has support at the $25.65, $25.21 (50 day moving average), $23.50 & $23.38/share price level, with resistance at the $26.15, $26.36, $26.93 (10 day moving average) & $27.97/share price levels.

Cannabis (POTX), Oil Services (OIH), U.S. Aerospace & Defense (ITA) & Hong Kong (EWH) Are All Bearishly Lagging The Market

POTX, the Global X Cannabis ETF has fallen -62.09% over the past year, dropping -65.78% since their 52-week high in May of 2022, but recovering +3.2% since their 52-week low in April of 2023 (ex-distributions).

This year has been very bearish for the cannabis industry as a whole & POTX is looking to rebound off of their recent 52-week low.

Their RSI is on the oversold end of neutral at 40, but their MACD looks primed to cross bearishly in the coming trading sessions.

Volumes recently have been below average compared to the year prior, signaling uncertainty among investors.

POTX offers a 4.51% distribution yield for long-term holders, which can help protect against future losses, but in the near-term a defensive options strategy can generate profits for investors while they wait to see how POTX behaves at support levels.

POTX has support at the $7.82 (all time lowest since their inception in 2020), with resistance at the $8.40 (10 day moving average), $8.47, $8.85 (50 day moving average) & $8.99/share price levels.

OIH, the VanEck Vectors Oil Services ETF has lost -2.61% over the past year, falling -24.77% since their 52-week high in January 2023, but has regained +29.23% since their 52-week low in July of 2022 (ex-distributions).

Their RSI is closing in on oversold levels, which is supported by their impending death cross (bearish crossover of the 50 & 200 day moving average), which will add to the declines that began with Thursday’s gap down.

Their MACD is still bearish, but attempting to flatten out for a bullish crossover, but recent trading volumes are below average compared to the year prior, signaling weakness in the near-term as investors are not overly eager to buy shares at these price levels.

OIH offers a 1.14% distribution yield for long-term holders, but again, like everything else in this article, the best course of action currently is to wait & see their behavior around support levels, while employing a defensive strategy using options as an insurance policy.

OIH has support at the $249.42, $249.30, $249.17 & $244.42/share price levels, with resistance at the $253.75, $255.92, $259.02 (10 day moving average) & $267.94/share price levels.

ITA, the iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF has gained +13.61% over the past year, losing -6.14% from their 52-week high in March of 2023 & improving +21.83% since their 52-week low in September of 2022 (ex-distributions).

Their MACD has been bearish for the past month, as their price has been in steady decline, with their RSI on the oversold end of neutral at 40.

Recent trading volumes are slightly below average compared to the year prior, signaling caution from investors.

ITA’s 1.06% distribution yield is not enough cushion to protect against any further near-term declines, making it wise to have a defensive strategy as insurance against losses, while watching their behavior around the near-term support levels.

ITA has support at the $109.46, $109.32, $108.28 & $108.13/share price levels, with resistance at the $111.98, $112.17, $113.71 & $113.76/share price levels.

EWH, the iShares MSCI Hong Kong ETF has fallen -3.13% over the past year, dropping -12.19% since their 52-week high in January of 2023, but improving +24% since their 52-week low in October of 2022 (ex-distributions).

Their RSI is very bearish & approaching oversold territory quickly, after 2 gap downs in the past week, which are setting the tone for the week ahead to be bearish at worst & at best finding them establishing a new, lower price range.

Their MACD is also bearish, and recent trading volumes have been relatively close to average compared to the year prior, signaling that there may be more losses incurred in the near-term.

With a 3.07% distribution yield for long-term holders, there is some protection against losses, but this is another instance where an insurance policy using options is the best idea in the near-term while watching their behavior at their support levels.

EWH has support at the $19.78, $19.65, $19.51 & $18.90/share price levels, with resistance at the $19.92, $20.12, $20.16 (200 day moving average) & $20.21/share price levels.

Tying It All Together

Next week’s data announcements kick off Monday morning at 8:30 am with the Empire Manufacturing Survey data & Chicago Fed President Goolsbee speaking on TV, followed by Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari speaking at 9:15 am.

Monday’s earnings reports include Catalent, Lordstown Motors, Tower Semiconductor & Navitas Semiconductor.

Tuesday is a bit busier, beginning at 8:15 am with Cleveland Fed President Mester Speaking, U.S. Retail Sales & Retail Sales Minus Autos reported at 8:30 am, Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization at 9:15 am, and at 10 am Business Inventories, Home Builder Confidence Index data & Fed Chair Barr testifying.

Also on Tuesday at 10:30 am Richmond Fed President Barkin speaks, followed by New York Fed President Williams at 12:15 pm, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee on TV at 2:30 pm & Atlanta Fed President Bostic & Chicago Fed President Goolsbee speaking on a panel at 7pm.

Tuesday’s earnings calls include Home Depot, Baidu, Sea Limited, Tencent Music, Tupperware & others.

Wednesday has a slower pace on the data front, with Housing Starts & Building Permits data reported at 8:30 am.

Cisco Systems reports earnings on Wednesday, along with Bootbarn Holdings, Copart, Jack In the Box, Synopsys, Take-Two Interactive, Target, TJX, Trip.com Group, Wix.com & more.

On Thursday at 8:30 am the Philadelphia Fed Factory Survey & Initial Jobless Claims data are reported, followed by Fed Governor Philip Jefferson speaking at 9:15 am, Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Barr Testifying at 9:30 am, and at 10 am Existing Home Sales & U.S. Leading Economic Indicators data will be reported.

Walmart is set to report earnings on Thursday, as well as Alibaba Group Holding, Applied Materials, Bath & Body Works, Bilibili, Canada Goose, Deckers Outdoor, Dole, Ross Stores, The Children’s Place & many more.

Friday winds the week down with New York Fed President Williams speaking at 8:45 am & at 11 am Fed Chairman Powell & former Fed Chairman Bernanke will be speaking on a panel.

Friday’s bigger earnings reports include Deere & Footlocker.

See you back here next week!

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM, MEXX, ITB, BRF, RING, POTX, OIH, ITA, or EWH AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF lost -0.79% over the past week, in a week filled with earnings reports, the Federal Reserve & ECB’s Interest Rate Decision & other data points flooding in.

Volumes were heavier than they’ve been for the prior month, but were still not as active as in March.

SPY’s MACD is trying to flatten out to cross bullishly, while their RSI remains in the neutral range, signaling that unless there is some positive momentum stemming from Friday’s +1.85% gap up it looks like the $405/share level will be tested again.

SPY has support at the $410.48, $410.35 (10 day moving average), $407.06 & $406.62/share price levels before the $405 mark that it has had difficulty crossing through, with resistance at the $416.49, $416.72, $417.62 & $426.37/share price levels.

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF nudged forward 0.1% over the past week, fairing the best of the indexes we cover in this section for the week.

Their technicals are looking similar to SPY’s, with a bearish, but flattening MACD & an RSI that entered into the overbought end of neutral with Friday’s +2.13% gap up session.

Volumes have been consistent, but like SPY, if the momentum of Friday isn’t able to be carried into the new week, there looks to be a resumption of the rest of the week’s declines for QQQ.

QQQ has support at the $317.86 (10 day moving average), $313.19, $312.16 & $309.30/share price levels, with resistance at the $331.19, $332.51, $346.78 & $368.99/share price levels.

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF lost -0.43% over the past week, despite having the most volatile of the three indexes.

Their MACD is similar to SPY’s & QQQ’s after Friday’s +2.38% gap up session helped to flatten out a bearish trending indicator reading.

IWM’s RSI is neutral, with above average volume this past week compared to the year prior.

IWM has support at the $173.49 (10 day moving average), $172.67, $169.71 & $169.05/share price levels & resistance at the $174.63, $174.71, $175.13 & $175.77/share price levels.

Let’s dive into some of the best & worst performing sectors & geo-locations in the market, based on technical performance rankings!

Italy (EWI), Robotics & Artificial Intelligence (BOTZ), Sports & Gaming Betting (BETZ) & International Equities (SCHF) Are All Bullishly Leading The Market

EWI, the iShares MSCI Italy Capped ETF has gained +23.9% over the past year, improving an impressive +52.45% since their 52-week low in October of 2022 (ex-distributions).

Their RSI is neutral at 50 & while their MACD is currently bearish, it is beginning to make a run at turning bullish after the past couple of weeks’ consolidation range & Friday’s +2.53% gap up.

Volume has been far below average compared to the year prior, signaling that investors are unsure of where they value the ETF.

While EWI offers a 3.85% distribution yield for long-term holders, a protective options strategy would provide better cushion against losses in the near-term, while watching how they behave at support levels before entering or adding to a position.

EWI has support at the $31.53 (10 day moving average), $30.96, $30.95 & $30.51/share (50 day moving average) price levels, with resistance overhead at the $32.02, $32.18, $32.46 & $32.47/share price levels (from 2022, viewing 2 year chart).

BOTZ, the Global X Robotics & Artificial Intelligence Thematic ETF has climbed +9.2% over the past year, adding +45.99% since their 52-week low in October of 2022 (ex-distributions).

Their MACD is on the verge of bullishly crossing over, after spending much of April in a consolidated price range.

Their RSI is on the overbought end of neutral (in part due to Friday’s 1.52% gap up), with recent trading volumes being about average compared to the year prior.

With a tiny 0.15% distribution yield, there is no cushion against a price correction, making an options strategy the best near-term choice while waiting to see how they behave at key support levels.

BOTZ has support at the $25.10, $24.91 (10 day moving average), $24.61 & $24.47/share (50 day moving average) price levels, with resistance at the $25.51, $25.75, $26.53 & $27.39/share price levels (in 2022, using a 2 year chart).

BETZ, the Roundhill Sports Betting & Gaming ETF added +2.45% over the past year, gaining +34.16% from their 52-week low in September of 2022 (ex-distributions).

They too have an RSI that is on the overbought end of neutral at ~62, while investors show uncertainty & have been trading in low volume.

Their MACD lines are pressed right against one another & their modest 0.22% distribution yield for long-term shareholders will provide limited cushion against losses, making it important to have an insurance policy in place, whether it be through buying puts, selling calls or another strategy, while waiting to see how they behave at support levels.

BETZ has support at the $17, $16.87 (10 day moving average), $16.85 & $16.70/share price levels, with resistance at the $17.34, $17.62, $17.66 & $18.20/share price ranges.

SCHF, the Schwab International Equity ETF has improved +9.92% over the past year, adding +31.17% from their 52-week low in October of 2022 (ex-distributions).

They too have an RSI in the low 60’s, signaling a rise towards overbought conditions, with very unconvincing low volume in 2023, compared to the year prior.

Their MACD is heading in the direction of a bullish crossover in the near-term, if the momentum from Friday’s +1.53% gap up is sustained in early next week.

While they offer a 2.51% cushion in terms of a distribution yield for long-term shareholders, a defensive options position would be better suited for while you wait to see how they behave around their support levels in the coming weeks.

SCHF has support at the $35.60 (10 day moving average), $35.58, $34.64 (50 day moving average) & $34.30/share price levels, with resistance at the $35.96, $36.04, $36.23 & $36.49/share price levels.

Diversified Commodity Strategy (PDBC), U.S. Broker Dealers & Securities Exchanges (IAI), U.S. Preferred Stocks (PFF) & Chinese Technology (CQQQ) Are All Bearishly Lagging The Market

PDBC, the Invesco Optimum Yield Diversified Commodity Strategy No K-1 ETF has fallen -18.11% over the past year, dropping -33.19% from their 52-week high in June of 2022, but reclaiming +3.66% from their 52-week low in March of 2023 (ex-distributions).

Friday’s +2.29% gap up helped to jolt their RSI from almost oversold levels up to the oversold end of neutral at 43.

Their MACD is beginning to move towards a bullish crossover in the near-term if they are able to maintain any momentum into the new week, but their weaker than average volumes cast doubt on that happening.

PDBC pays a 13.9% distribution year to long-term shareholders, which will provide a cushion against losses until the $11.94/share level, if the shares are held for a year or longer.

However, it would be wisest to wait & see how they behave against their support levels, or else to take a near-term approach with an options strategy while waiting to purchase shares at a less volatile time in the markets.

PDBC has support at the $13.47, $13.38, $13.02 & $11.74/share price levels (using a two year chart), with resistance at $13.94 (10 day moving average), $13.96, $14 & $14.12/share price levels.

IAI, the iShares U.S. Broker-Dealers & Securities Exchanges ETF has nudged forward +0.63% over the past year, dropping -16.69% from their 52-week high in February 2023, while regaining +9.14% since their 52-week low in July of 2022 (ex-distributions).

With similar technicals to PDBC, IAI’s RSI also rebounded nicely from near oversold territory to the oversold end of neutral at 40 due to Friday’s +2.44% gap up day.

They also are lacking in volume compared to the year prior, signaling uncertainty in where shareholders value their shares, with a MACD that could bullishly crossover this week, if there is some momentum carried over into the new week from Friday’s price action.

Unfortunately, IAI’s distribution yield for long-term holders is only 2%, providing much less cushion from losses, meaning it is best to play a defensive options strategy now, or wait to see how their support levels hold up in the near-term before entering a position.

IAI has support at the $86.66, $86.27, $85.29 & $84.57/share price limits, with resistance at the $89.71, $89.84 (10 day moving average), $90.36 & $91.54/share price levels.

PFF, the iShares U.S. Preferred Stock ETF has shed -4.96% over the past year, falling -15.93% from their 52-week high in August of 2022 & only gaining +4.09% since their 52-week low in October of 2022 (ex-distributions).

The situation for PFF looks a bit more dire than the previous two names.

Their MACD is in bearish freefall, after 5 straight steep declining sessions before Friday’s +1.47% recovery.

Volumes have recently been above average & their RSI is still closer to oversold than neutral, signaling more future losses in the near-term.

PFF does pay a 6.97% distribution yield, which will cover some losses, but a defensive options strategy with a “wait & see” approach to long shares looks best in the near-term while we wait to see how it behaves at its support levels.

PFF has support at the $29.57, $29.29, $29.18 & $28.59/share price levels, with resistance at the $29.90, $30.06, $30.57 (10 day moving average) & $30.83/share (50 day moving average) price levels.

CQQQ, the Invesco China Technology ETF inched forward +2.27% over the past year, however they fell -20.36% from their 52-week high in June of 2022, but have improved +38.85% since their 52-week low in October of 2022 (ex-distributions).

CQQQ is beginning to show signs of an impending bullish MACD crossover, however their recent performance was on extremely light volume compared to the year’s average.

Their RSI is moving back towards the oversold end of neutral, but there appears to be a tough test in the form of a shooting star candle at the top of the window that they are trying to fill.

With such a small 0.08% distribution yield for long-term shareholders, this is another one in the “Wait & see” or trade options defensively around name until we see how its support levels hold up in the near-term.

CQQQ has support at the $41.34 (10 day moving average), $41.07, $40.98 & $40.51/share price levels, with resistance at the $41.60, $42.11, $42.75 & $42.80/share (200 day moving average) price levels.

Tying It All Together

Next week’s data kicks off with Wholesale Inventories reported at 10 am on Monday, followed by Fed Senior Loan Survey data at 2 pm.

We also continue quarterly earnings calls on Monday, featuring Paypal, Cabot, Devon Energy, KKR, Novavax, Six Flags, Skyworks Solutions, Tyson Foods & Western Digital, plus others.

Tuesday the NFIB Optimism Index data is released at 6 am.

AirBnb is the big earnings call on Tuesday, with reports from Affirm Holdings, Aramark, Fisker, FoxCorp, H&R Block, Hostess Brands, Mannkind, Occidental Petroleum, Rackspace Technology, Squarespace, Under Armour, WeWork, Wynn Resorts & more.

Much anticipated Consumer Price Index, Core CPI, CPI Y-o-Y & Core CPI Y-o-Y data will be reported at 8:30 am on Wednesday.

Wednesday’s earnings will feature Disney, Cheesecake Factory, Jazz Pharmaceuticals, Reynolds Consumer Products, Roblox, The Trade Desk, Traeger, Valvoline, Wendy’s, Wolverine World Wide & many other companies.

On Thursday the Producer Price Index, Core PPI, PPI Y-o-Y, Core PPI Y-o-Y, Initial Jobless Claims & Continuing Jobless Claims data are all released at 8:30 am.

Thursday’s earnings calls include CyberArk Software, Dillard’s, JD.com, Krispy Kreme, U.S. Foods, Utz Brands & more.

Friday wraps the week up with Import Price Index & Import Price Index Minus Fuel data at 8:30 am, followed by Consumer Sentiment (preliminary) at 10 am, with Embecta & Spectrum Brands reporting earnings.

See you back here next week!

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM, EWI, BETZ, BOTZ, SCHF, PDBC, IAI, PFF, or CQQQ AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***

Last week earnings reports dominated the headlines, along with the continuing news about banks being in financial distress as a solution is worked out.

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF gained +0.9% over the past week, in a week that started off on a weak foot until Thursday & Friday’s sessions.

Volumes were more enthusiastic compared to the week prior, returning to about average compared to the year prior.

Their RSI is beginning to show signs of weakness as it approaches overbought conditions, but their MACD is approaching a bullish crossover, which signals there will be some volatility in the coming week.

SPY’s current moving averages, particularly the 10 day moving average are now all in positions to act as support, but they need to re-test the $416.72 resistance level.

SPY has support at the $411.78 (10 day moving average), $410.48, $407.06 & $406.62/share price levels, with resistance at the $416.72, $426.37, $438.53 & $442.12/share price levels.

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF improved +1.88% over the past week, faring the best of the indexes, as investors cheered earnings reports & piled into stocks most impacted by interest rates in the week before the next rate announcement.

They too have an RSI approaching overbought, while their MACD is turning towards a bullish crossover, confirming the volatility SPY is also showing on the horizon.

Volumes for QQQ were also relatively in-line with average compared to the year prior, but Friday’s candlestick is signaling more uncertainty in the near-term, as it is not a hanging man due to the opening price being too low into the real-body:shadow, but is not entirely signaling bullishness either.

QQQ has support at the $317 (10 day moving average), $313.19, $312.16 & $309.30/share price levels, with resistance at the $331.19, $332.51, $338.56 & $346.78/share price levels.

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF -1.33% 0ver the past week, has investors were moving away from smaller cap stocks & investments in favor of larger S&P 500 names & technology heavy NASDAQ names.

They ended the week trying to strengthen after falling out of a consolidation range earlier in the week, on above average volume compared to the year prior.

Their RSI is neutral, with their MACD fluttering around as Monday’s session will determine whether or not it settles in a bullish or bearish direction.

IWM has support at the $175.13, $174.71, $174.63 & $172.67/share price levels, with resistance at the $175.77, $175.83, $176.07 (10 day moving average) & $178.85/share (50 day moving average) price levels.

Let’s take a look into some of the best & worst performing sectors & geo-locations in the market, based on this week’s technical analysis!

Homebuilders (XHB), Greece (GREK), Indonesia (EIDO) & Emerging Markets Dividend Stocks (EDIV) Are All Bullishly Leading The Market

XHB, the SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF has climbed +14.49% over the past year, gaining +38.43% since their 52 week low in June of 2022 (ex-distributions).

Their RSI is approaching overbought, while their MACD is beginning to look exhausted & in need of a breather.

Last week’s below average volumes also confirm that XHB’s sentiment is waning in the near-term, and their distribution yield pays 0.94% to long-term holders throughout the year, leaving little protection from downside risks.

Investors should wait to see how they perform around support levels in the coming weeks to plan their entry, while employing an options strategy for additional protection & profits.

XHB has support at the $69.15 (10 day moving average), $69.13, $68 & $67.48/share price levels, with resistance at the $72.78, $73.31, $74.13 & $74.45/share price levels.

GREK, the Global X MSCI Greece ETF has gained +23.85% over the past year, improving 51.06% from their 52 week low in September of 2022 (ex-distributions).

They’ve already begun to cool off a bit recently throughout the month of March, after a steady near 6-month climb & their RSI is back to neutral.

Their MACD is already bearish, with volumes over the past two months being above average compared to the year prior.

While GREK offers a 2.4% distribution yield over the year to long-term holders, they too look best suited for a wait & see approach for long-term investors, with an options strategy such as selling calls or buying puts in place as well for protection from downside moves.

GREK has support at the $31.12 (50 day moving average), $30.65, $28.83 & $26.44/ share (200 day moving average) price levels, with resistance at the $31.77 (10 day moving average), $32.50 & $33.12/share price levels.

EIDO, the iShares MSCI Indonesia ETF has improved by 0.84% over the past year, while gaining +16.64% since their 52 week low in July of 2022 (ex-distributions).

Their RSI is overbought after a couple of major gap up days last week, with volume only being particularly strong on Wednesday, which was a gap up hanging man candlestick session.

Investors & traders would be wise to see how they behave around the most recent gap, to see if they will go test Wednesday’s candlestick level, as that could avalanche into a closing of the window created by Wednesday’s gap up.

With a 2.29% distribution yield for long-term holders & so many signals of uncertainty, EIDO’s behavior at support levels will be critical in timing an entry to a position in this environment.

EIDO has support at the $24.62, $24.11, $24.05 (10 day moving average) & $23.86/share price levels, with resistance at the $25.01, $25.15, $25.27 & $25.79/share price levels.

EDIV, the SPDR S&P Emerging Markets Dividend ETF has gained +0.79% over the past year, climbing +24.44% from their 52 week low in November of 2022 (ex-distributions).

They’re volume tends to be light, with the most recent trading sessions falling below average compared to the year prior & their RSI is on the overbought end of neutral.

While their MACD is bearish, it is beginning to point bearish, mostly due to the gap up day on Thursday of last week.

EDIV pays a 4.51% distribution yield to long-term investors throughout each year, which is a better cushion against losses than many of the other names outlined in this article, but using options for additional protection is advisable in the near-term.

EDIV has support at the $26.64 (10 day moving average), $26.31, $26.01 & $25.93/share (50 day moving average), with resistance at the $26.80, $26.89, $27.14 & $27.76/share price levels.

China Small Cap Stocks (ECNS), Small Cap Momentum Stocks (DWAS), Natural Gas (FCG) & Agribusiness (MOO) Are All Bearishly Lagging The Market

ECNS, the iShares MSCI China Small Cap ETF has fallen -9.03% over the past year, losing -19.33% since their 52 week high in February of 2022, but has rebounded +24.58% since their 52 week low in October of 2022 (ex-distributions).

Their MACD is about to crossover bullish, but weak volumes compared to the year prior don’t signal much strength in the near-term.

Their RSI is on the oversold end of neutral, with Friday’s session resulting in a hanging man candlestick, implying more volatility to come on the horizon.

With a 3.74% distribution yield paid to long-term holders throughout the year they do have some cushion against losses, but an options strategy for protection while waiting to see how they behave at support levels looks to be the best near-term course of action.

ECNS has support at the $32.77, $32.10, $30.91 & $30.46/share price levels, with resistance at the $33.25, $33.44 (10 day moving average), $33.71 & $33.96/share (200 day moving average) price levels.

DWAS, the Invesco DWA Small Cap Momentum ETF has lost -8.52% over the past year, falling -14.61% since their 52 week low in June of 2022, but has bounced +10.84% since their 52 week low in July of 2022 (ex-distributions).

Their RSI is heading back towards neutral after Friday’s gap up following a week of declines, with volumes being about neutral compared to the year prior.

Their MACD is bearish, but hinting at a chance of a near-term bullish crossover, but Friday’s hanging man candlestick signals a dampening of the chances of that.

With a modest 0.81% distribution yield for long-term holders, a protective strategy should be employed, while watching their behavior at support levels.

DWAS has support at the $71.16, $70.51, $70.32 & $69.31/share price levels, with resistance at the $72.09, $72.43, $72.88 (10 day moving average) & $72.89/share price levels.

FCG, the First Trust Natural Gas ETF shed -0.65% over the past year, declining -25.62% from their 52 week high in June of 2022, but has rebounded +17.97% from their 52 week low in July of 2022 (ex-distributions).

Their RSI is neutral, with their MACD in a bearish decline on below average volume for the past couple of month’s trading sessions.

With a 3.58% distribution yield they offer some cushion against losses for long-term holders, but based on the indecisiveness behind their recent performance it appears best to wait to see how they behave at support levels in the near-term, with a defensive near-term trading strategy around them for protection & profits while waiting.

FCG has support at the $23.07 (10 day moving average), $22.77 (50 day moving average), $22.57 & $22.48/share price levels, with resistance at the $23.16, $23.20, $23.33 & $23.63/share price level.

MOO, the VanEck Vectors Agribusiness ETF has lost -11.44% over the past year, losing -16% from their 52 week high in May of 2022, but reclaiming +6.09% since their 52 week low in September of 2022 (ex-distributions).

Thursday & Friday’s recovery sessions have helped push their RSI back towards neutral, but their MACD is still bearish.

Recent trading volumes have also signaled uncertainty, as they have been below average compared to the year prior, which when paired with their 2.16% distribution yield as a cushion against losses stresses the importance of taking a wait & see defensive approach to MOO.

MOO has support at the $84.56, $83.96, $82.89 & $82.66/share price levels, with resistance overhead at the $85.92, $86.09 (10 day moving average), $86.58 (50 day moving average) & $87.18/share (200 day moving average) price levels.

Tying It All Together

May kicks off with highly anticipated data being released, in addition to quarterly earnings calls continuing.

Monday at 9:45 am the S&P US Manufacturing PMI data will be released, followed by ISM Manufacturing & Construction Spending data at 10 am.

On the earning’s front, Monday’s reports include Avis Budget, Chegg, Diamondback Energy, Hologic, J&J Snack Foods, MGM Resorts International, Microstrategy, Norwegian Cruise Line, NXP Semiconductors, SoFi Technologies, Stryker & ZoomInfo, amongst others.

Tuesday we get U.S. Job Openings data reported & Factory Orders data at 10 am, with the m0st anticipated data release being Advanced Micro Devices & Pfizer’s earnings calls.

Other earnings being reported on Tuesday include ADT, BP, Cheniere Energy, Chesapeake Energy, Clorox, Cummins, DuPont, Ford Motor Company, Illinois Tool Works, Marriott, Molson Coors Brewing, Prudential, Simon Property Group, Starbucks, Sunoco, T. Rowe Price, Thomason Reuters, Uber Technologies & Western Union, with many more.

Wednesday will be very interesting, with ADP Employment data kicking off the dat at 8:15 am, S&P U.S. Services PMI data at 9:45 am, ISM Services data reported at 10 am & the highly anticipated Federal Reserve Interest Rate Statement at 2 pm & Fed Chair Powell’s Press Conference at 2:30 pm.

Albermarle, Allstate, Clean Harbors, Fresh Del Monte, Garmin, Hanesbrands, Kraft Heinz, Marathon Oil, MetLife, Phillips 66, Scotts Miracle Grow, Trip Advisor, Wingstop & Yum! Brands are some of Wednesday’s earnings reports.

Thursday morning at 8:30 am we hear U.S. Productivity, U.S. Trade Deficit, Initial Jobless Claims & Continuing Jobless claims data to start off the day.

Apple’s earnings call is Thursday, as well as American International Group, Anheuser-Busch InBev, Ball Corp., Block, ConocoPhillips, DISH Network, DraftKings, DropBox, Ferrari, GoDaddy, Huntington Ingalls, Hyatt Hotels, Kellogg, Lyft, Moderna, Monster Beverage, Peloton Interactive, Shake Shack, Starwood Property Trust, Wayfair, XPO, Yelp & more.

Friday winds down with the U.S. Employment Report, U.S. Unemployment Rate, U.S. Hourly Wages & Hour Wages Year Over Year reported at 8:30 am & Consumer Credit data coming in at 3pm.

Friday’s earnings reports include AMC Entertainment, CBOE Global Markets, Dominion Energy, Goodyear Tire, Johnson Controls, The Cigna Group & more.

See you back here next week!

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM, XHB, GREK, EIDO, EDIV, ECNS, DWAS, FCG or MOO AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF closed the week mostly flat, falling -0.06%, as we began receiving more earnings data from companies, while hearing a number of Federal Reserve speakers throughout the week.

Their MACD is about to bearishly crossover, which looks particularly troubling, as with an RSI of 60 (overbought end of neutral), there is more room to fall before algorithms will be tripped into buying again.

Volume in April has been lower than March, but relatively average compared to the rest of the year prior, and last week’s assortment of candlesticks show a rejection of the $415 price level, followed by uncertainty floating between $410-$415/share.

SPY has support at the $411.97 (10 day moving average), $410.48, $407.06 & $406.62/share price levels, with resistance at the $415.72, $416.72, $426.37 & $438.52/share price levels.

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF fared a bit worse than SPY, dropping -0.62% during the course of last week, as investors moved away from the technology-heavy index.

Their MACD has already completed a bearish crossover in April, as they’ve hovered around a consolidation range for most of the month, with their RSI at 56.

Volumes have been about average/just below average compared to the year prior throughout that time & Friday’s hanging man candle after Thursday’s shooting star candlestick signals more uncertainty & consolidation are on the horizon.

QQQ has support at the $313.19, $312.16, $309.30 & $305.86/share (50 day moving average) price levels, with resistance at the $317.38, $321.63, $331.19 & $332.51/share price levels.

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF proved small caps were the haven of choice this week among market participants, gaining +0.59% over the course of the week.

Their RSI is neutral at 50, and their MACD is beginning to show signs of a near-term bearish crossover on the horizon in the next couple of trading sessions.

Volumes have settled down relative to March’s above average volume & are still about average compared to the year prior.

Much like SPY & QQQ, IWM has been in a consolidation range for the month of April so far, with Thursday & Friday’s candlesticks looking very similar to their larger index counterparts’ as well.

IWM has support at the $177.33 (10 day moving average), $175.83, $175.77 & $175.13/share price levels, with resistance overhead at the $179.78, $179.92, $179.94 (200 day moving average) & $180.56/share (50 day moving average) price levels.

Let’s dive into some of the best & worst sectors & geo-locations in the market based on this week’s technical analysis ratings for their respective ETF’s!

Mexico (EWW), Switzerland (EWL), Semiconductors (SMH) & European SmallCap Dividend Investments (DFE) Are All Bullishly Leading The Market

EWW, the iShares MSCI Mexico Capped ETF has gained +20.64% over the past year, climbing +37.34% from their 52 week low in September of 2022 (ex-distributions).

Their MACD is beginning to send signals of an impending cool off period, which is further supported by Friday’s hanging man candlestick.

Their RSI is on the oversold end of neutral at 58, with recent volumes being a bit lower than average compared to the year prior, signaling slowing enthusiasm in the near-term.

EWW pays a 2.99% distribution to long-term holders, which can provide some protection from a downfall, but otherwise it would be wisest to use an options strategy for protection (selling calls/buying puts), while eying its behavior at support levels in the coming weeks.

EWW has support at the $59.81 (10 day moving average), $59.45, $58.08 (50 day moving average) & $55.29/share price levels, with resistance at the $60.40 & $60.52/share price levels.

EWL, the iShares MSCI Switzerland Capped ETF has gained 2.9% over the past year, but has bounced back +33.54% from their 52 week low in October of 2022 (ex-distributions).

Their RSI is well into overbought territory at 78.98, with their MACD beginning to signal a bearish rollover.

Friday’s hanging man candlestick on a +1% gap up with high volume will make for an interesting Monday/Tuesday session while we wait to see if the gap is filled or not.

EWL pays a 1.78% distribution to long-term shareholders, but that will not be enough protection when you factor in where their support levels, so other methods of insurance would be beneficial while watching where to make a better entry in less volatile market conditions.

EWL has support at the $47.13 (10 day moving average), $45.87, $44.94 & $44.67/share (50 day moving average) price levels, with resistance at the $49.27, $50.28 & $52.02/share price levels.

SMH, the VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF has grown +7% over the past year, while rising +48.73% since their 52 week low in October of 2022 (ex-distributions).

Their MACD has been bearish for a couple of weeks, but their RSI is relatively neutral (oversold side), after spending the past couple of weeks in a consolidation range.

Recent trading volumes have been below average, signaling indecision on the part of investors, which is validated by Friday’s doji candlestick.

SMH’s 0.97% distribution yield doesn’t offer much in the form of insurance against losses from volatility, making it important to have an options strategy as a hedge while eyeing how they behave at support levels to begin planning an entry.

SMH has support at the $246.43, $246.32, $244.41 & $244.28/share price levels, with resistance at the $248.52 (50 day moving average), $249.56, $252.07 (10 day moving average) & $255.64/share price levels.

DFE, the WisdomTree Europe SmallCap Dividend Fund has lost -3% over the past year, but has grown 35.96% since their 52 week low in September of 2022 (ex-distributions).

Their MACD is beginning to signal a bearish crossover in the coming days, with their RSI showing room to cool off, as it is approaching the overbought end of neutral.

This is a lightly traded ETF throughout the year that sports a 5.91% distribution for long-term shareholders.

While eyeing their behavior at support levels, there may be opportunities using options to profit from a near-term strategy, but as the shares themselves as so illiquid, make sure open interest levels are liquid before trading them.

DFE has support at the $59.60 (10 day moving average), $58.41 (50 day moving average), $57.96 & $56.82/share price levels, with resistance at the $60.19, $60.49, $60.84 & $61.27/share price levels.

Regional Banks (DPST), Oil & Gas Exploration & Production (XOP), China (PGJ) & 20+ Year Treasuries (UBT) Are All Bearishly Lagging The Market

DPST, the Direxion Daily Regional Banks Bull 3x Shares ETF has fallen -79.46% over the past year, losing -81.9% from their 52 week high in August of 2022, but reclaiming +9.08% from their 52 week low in March of 2023 (ex-distributions).

Their MACD has been bullish since late March, but their RSI is bearishly trending back to oversold conditions after this most recent consolidation period.

Recent volumes have been above average compared to the year prior, with the past few days’ candlesticks signaling more uncertainty.

While they offer a 4.07% distribution yield to long-term holders, traders can profit in the meantime using options strategies while the market participants find an agreeable price range for DPST.

DPST has support at the $6.93, $6.56 & $6.50/share price levels, with resistance overhead at the $7.23 (10 day moving average), $7.70 & $14.46/share (50 day moving average) price levels.

XOP, the SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF has shed -1.91% over the past year, losing 25.62% since their 52 week high of June of 2022, but gaining 17.51% since their 52 week low of July 2022 (ex-distributions).

Their MACD recently completed a bearish crossover, but their recent volumes have been below average, signaling uncertainty, which is further confirmed by their mix of candlesticks from the past week, which include multiple bearish hanging man candles & a doji.

Their RSI is approaching the oversold end of neutral at 44, but with only 3.01% cushion for losses from their distribution yield (for long-term holders), unless using an options protection strategy, it would be wisest to wait & see at what level they begin trending upward again.

XOP has support at the $125.63, $124.41, $123.58 & $120.33/share price level, with resistance at the $128.32, $129.71 (50 day moving average), $129.90 & $130.44/share price levels.

PGJ, the Invesco Golden Dragon China ETF has gained 7.81% over the past year, losing -20.75% from their 52 week high in June of 2022, while rebounding +60.7% since their 52 week low in October of 2022 (ex-distributions).

Their RSI is beginning to approach oversold conditions, but their MACD is trending downward.

Recent volumes have been extremely light & below average, confirming the negative sentiment that the 2 gap down days last week expressed.

With only 0.93% for longterm holders coming from distribution, this is another one to either trade around using options, or wait to see when it begins to find stable footing at one of its support levels.

PGJ has support at the $27.06, $27.04, $26.85 & $26.64/share price levels, with resistance at the $27.38, $27.45, $27.81 & $27.90/share (200 day moving average) price levels.

UBT, the ProShares Ultra 20+ Year Treasury ETF has lost -26.52% over the past year, losing 30.33% since their 52 week high in April of 2022, but regaining 25.98% since their 52 week low in October of 2022 (ex-distributions).

Their MACD is showing signs of a near-term bullish crossover, but they also run the risk of filling the gap from March of 2023 if there is broader market volatility.

With an RSI at 45 & trending downward, below average volume recently & a modest 0.80% distribution yield for protection, this one is best left alone until a new range is established to trend from.

UBT has support at the $25.66, $25.63, $24.85 & $23.91/share price level, with resistance at the $26.57 (10 day moving average), $26.79, $26.80 & $27.30/share price level.

Tying It All Together

In terms of data reporting, this week starts off quiet, with nothing to be announced on Monday, which will give more control over the market’s direction to the results of earnings reports.

Monday’s earnings reports include Bank of Hawaii, AGNC, Coca Cola, Cleveland-Cliffs, First Republic Bank & Whirlpool.

On Tuesday we get the S&P Case-Schiller Home Price Index (20 cities) & the FHFA Home Price Index data at 9 am, followed by New Home Sales & Consumer Confidence numbers at 10 am.

Also on Tuesday, Microsoft, Alphabet, Archer Daniels Midland, 3M, Biogen, Chubb, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Danaher, DOW, General Electric, General Motors, Halliburton, McDonald’s, Sherwin Williams, Raytheon Technologies, Texas Instruments, UPS, Verizon Communications, Visa & many other large names report their earnings.

Wednesday we get Durable Goods Orders, Durable Goods Minus Transportation, Advanced U.S. Trade Balance In Goods, Advanced Retail Inventories & Advanced Wholesale Inventories data, all at 8:30 am.

Wednesday’s earnings include Meta, Automatic Data, C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Churchill Downs, CME Group, Boeing, eBay, Meritage Homes, Lending Club, Humana, Norfolk Southern, Old Dominion, Otis Worldwide, Penske Auto, Ryder System, Steve Madden, Thermo Fisher, United Rentals, Waste Management, Wyndham Hotels & Resorts and many other names as well.

Thursday’s data kicks off with GDP, Initial Jobless Claims & Continuing Jobless Claims at 8:30 am, and Pending Home Sales at 10 am.

Thursday will also be a busy day of earnings calls, with Amazon, AbbVie, Activision Blizzard, Amgen, Bristol-Myers, Boston Beer Co. Caterpiller, Church & Dwight, Cloudflare, Comcast, Domino’s Pizza, Eli Lilly, Grainger, Harley Davidson, Hershey Foods, Honeywell, Mastercard, Merck, Mohawk Industries, Modelez International, Northrop Grumman, S&P Global, Southern, T-Mobile, Tractor Supply, U.S. Steel, Valero Energy, Xcel Energy & many other names.

Friday the week winds down with Employment Cost Index, Personal Income (nominal), Personal Spending (nominal), PCE Index, Core PCE Index, PCE (year-over-year) & Core PCE (year-over-year) at 8:30 am, the Chicago Business Barometer at 9:45 am & Final Consumer Sentiment numbers at 10 am.

Friday is more quiet on the earnings calls front, with Aon, Charter Communications, Colgate-Palmolive, Exxon Mobil, Newell Brands & Wisdom Tree, among others all reporting quarterly earnings.

Between the data being reported & the large amount of companies reporting earnings, this promises to be a volatile week.

See you back here next week!

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM, EWW, EWL, SMH, DFE, DPST, XOP, PGJ or UBT AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF added +0.23% over the past week as investors digested & reacted to earnings calls, CPI/PPI data & more, being less favorable than NASDAQ stocks for the week, but outperforming the small cap Russell 2000 index.

While Friday’s spinning top candle’s open & closing prices stayed near the top of Thursday’s candle’s range, it remained inside of it, signaling hesitance among investors at the $415/share level.

Their RSI is closer to overbought than neutral, with some room to consolidate & cool off & their MACD looks poised to roll over bearishly in the near-term.

Trading volumes have been about average compared to the year prior for SPY & I’ll be watching their nearest support/resistance levels in the coming week for clues as to the S&P’s next moves.

SPY has support at the $410.48, $409.91 (10 day moving average) & $407.06/share price levels,with resistance at the $416.72, $422.50 & $426.37/share price levels.

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF gained +1.7% over the past week, faring the best of the indexes for the week.

Their MACD crossed over bearishly mid-week & Friday’s spinning top candlestick is also similar to SPY’s, signaling investors are not certain about the $320/share price level on QQQ.

Their RSI is also above 60, with room to cool off in the near-term & their recent trading volumes have been about average compared to the year prior.

QQQ has support at the $317.86 (10 day moving average), $313.19 & $312.16/share price levels, which will be areas of interest to watch this week, with resistance overhead at the $321.63, $327.77 & $332.51/share price levels.

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF shed -0.13% over the past week, as investors were more interested in larger cap S&P 500 stocks & the tech heavy NASDAQ index last week.

They remained in a tight range all week, trading at about average volume compared to the year prior.

Their RSI is neutral & MACD is still bullish, but beginning to signal a loss of steam, which will make seeing their reactions to support levels this week important for figuring out where the index goes next.

IWM has support at the $176.32 (10 day moving average), $175.83, $175.77 & 175.13/share price levels, with resistance at the $179.71 (200 day moving average), $179.78, $179.92 & $182.24/share (50 day moving average) price levels.

Let’s dive into some of the best & worst performing sectors & geo-locations based on this week’s technical performance rating data!

South Korea (KORU), U.S. Home Construction (ITB), United Kingdom (EWU) & Energy (ERX) Are All Bullishly Leading The Markets

KORU, the Direxion Daily South Korea Bull 3x Shares ETF has lost -40.35% over the past year, but posted an impressive +111.18% rebound from their 52 week low in October of 2022 (ex-distributions for long-term holders).

Last week’s multiple gap up days have pushed their RSI to close to overbought conditions last week, with trading volumes being above average compared to the year prior.

Their MACD still looks strong, but with only 0.82% in the form of annual distribution for long-term share holders, it appears best to wait & see how they behave at support levels before entering or adding to a position (unless using options as insurance).

KORU has support at the $9.43, $9.25, $9.23 & $8.93 (10 day moving average), with resistance overhead at the $9.66, $9.96, $10.08 & $10.33/share price levels.

ITB, the iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF has climbed +24.33% over the past year, improving +46.54% from their 52 week low in June of 2022 (ex-distributions).

Their RSI had been relatively flat around 59 as they’ve been slowly building up from a consolidation period, but their MACD is not signaling near-term strength.

Add in their below average trading volumes of recent compared to the past year & it appears that market participants are not overly optimistic about ITB in the near-term.

With only a 0.73% cushion in the form of their distribution yield, unless using an options strategy it would be best to wait & see how they too behave at support levels in the coming weeks.

ITB has support at the $69.63 (10 day moving average), $68.55 (50 day moving average), $67.69 & $65.14/share price levels, with resistance at the $71.14 $73.66, $73.75 & $74.44/share price levels.

EWU, the iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF has gained +2.21% over the past year, with +32.37% returns from their 52 week low in September 2022 (ex-distributions).

Their RSI has just crossed out of overbought territory after a few weeks of strong price performance, but the lighter than average volume they’ve traded on recently shows there is still some reservations among investors in EWU.

While their MACD looks strong with the recent trend, it is beginning to also signal near-term consolidation, implying investors should be defensive.

EWU has a 3.13% distribution yield for long-term shareholders each year, but that will only provide protection from losses until the $32.52 price level, signaling it best to have an options strategy in place as insurance, or wait to enter after seeing their behavior at support levels.

EWU has support at the $33.18, $33.09, $33.05 (10 day moving average) & $32.35/share price level, with resistance at the $33.64 & $33.95/share price levels.

ERX, the Direxion Daily Energy Bull 2x Shares ETF has added +6.6% over the past year, gaining +65.3% since their 52 week low in July of 2022 (ex-distributions).

Their RSI is on the overbought end of neutral, after a gap up two weeks ago propelled them ~+9%, but their MACD is beginning to hint at signs of near-term weakness & consolidation on the horizon.

ERX’s volumes have been far below average recently, which also suggests that there is limited good sentiment left in the near-term.

While their 2.53% distribution yield will reward long-term shareholders with a cushion, their behavior at support levels will be critical for establishing when it is wisest to enter, unless hedging with options.

ERX has support at the $64.34, $63.37, $62.54 & $62.45/share (10 day moving average) price levels & resistance at the $64.77, $65.12, $67.05 & $67.35/share price level.

Real Estate (VNQ), Space (UFO), Israel (ISRA) & MidCap Dividends (DON) Are All Bearishly Lagging The Market

VNQ, the Vanguard Real Estate ETF has dropped -21.88% over the past year, losing -28.4% from their 52 week high in April of 2022, but rebounding +8.75% from their 52 week low in July of 2022 (ex-distributions).

Despite a recent rally in late March, VNQ’s MACD is signaling a bearish crossover is imminent & their RSI is trending bearishly away from the neutral level.

Recent trading volumes have been about average compared to the year prior, confirming the sentiment & while their distribution yield is 4.21%, this seems like a situation best to approach with caution in the near-term.

VNQ’s behavior at support levels will give clues into when an entry would be better (unless employing an options strategy), with support at the $79.69, $79.07, $77.16 & $76.86/share price levels & resistance at the $81.88, $82.13, $82.42 (10 day moving average) & $82.84.

UFO, the Procure Space ETF has lost -24.44% over the past year, which coincidentally was its high point in the past 52 weeks, but has rebounded +7.21% from their 52 week low in October of 2022 (ex-distributions).

Their MACD is beginning to indicate a bearish rollover, but their RSI is still neutral.

Volume sentiment is tough to gauge, as this is not the most particularly liquid security, & their most recent price movements have been to consolidate in the $18.50-19 range since the end of March.

UFO pays a 2.36% distribution for long-term holders, which provides some relief, but there seems to be uncertainty on their horizon as well, making insurance against losses (buying puts or selling calls) & an eye on support levels for entry imperative.

UFO has support at the $18.59, $18.02, $17.55 & $17.48/share price level, with resistance at the $18.79, $18.86 (10 day moving average), $19.07 & $19.08/share price levels.

ISRA, the VanEck Vectors Israel ETF has declined -21.63% over the past year, shedding -23.96% from their 52 week high in April of 2022, but scraping back +3.94% from their 52 week low in March of 2023 (ex-distributions).

They too have an MACD flashing warnings signs, after consolidating into a $35-35.50 price range over the past few weeks.

Recent trading volumes have been below average compared to the year prior & their RSI is bearishly declining, signaling investors should be cautious & wait to see how they behave at support levels before creating a new position or adding to an existing one.

With only a 1.38% distribution yield for long-term holders, there is limited cushion for protection unless you employ an options strategy defensively to protect/profit from near-term losses.

ISRA has support at the $34.79, $34.48 & $33.77/share price level, with resistance at the $35.30, $35.44 (10 day moving average), $35.45 & $35.62/share price levels.

DON, the Wisdom Tree MidCap Dividend Fund ETF has lost -4.6% over the past year, falling -10.81% from their 52 week high in April of 2022, while gaining back +8.94% since their 52 week low in September of 2022 (ex-distributions).

Their recent volumes have been below average & their RSI is neutral, but their MACD is beginning to show signs of bearishly rolling over.

DON pays a 2.97% distribution yield, which provides some cushion for a price consolidation, but they too are in a “wait & see” period to see how they behave against their support levels in the near-term.

DON has support at the $40.72 (10 day moving average), $40.15, $40.14 & $39.92/share price levels & resistance at the $41.11 (200 day moving average), $41.36, $41.73 & $41.85/share (50 day moving average) price levels.

Tying It All Together

Next week kicks off with the Empire State Manufacturing data at 8:30 am on Monday, followed by Homebuilder Confidence Index data at 10 am & at 12:45 pm Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin speaks.

Tuesday we hear Housing Starts & Building Permits data at 8:30 am, with Fed Governor Michelle Bowman speaking at 1 pm.

Wednesday is the Fed Beige Book at 2 pm & New York Fed President Williams speaking at 7 pm.

Things pick up the pace Thursday with Initial Jobless Claims, Continuing Jobless Claims & Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey data reported at 8:30 am, followed with Existing Homes Sales & U.S. Leading Economic Indicators at 10 am.

Thursday afternoon we hear from many Fed speakers, starting with Fed Governor Christopher Waller & Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester speaking at 12 pm, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan & Fed Governor Michelle Bowman speaking at 3 pm & at 5 pm Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic speaks.

Friday the week winds down with S&P Flash U.S. Services PMI & S&P Flash U.S. Manufacturing PMI data at 9:45 am & Fed Governor Lisa Cook speaking at 4:35 pm.

Additionally, there will be many notable earnings calls throughout the week including Monday’s Charles Schwab, J.B. Hunt Transport Services, M&T Bank & State Street reporting.

Tuesday’s calls include Bank of America, Netflix, BNY Mellon, Fulton Financial, Goldman Sachs, Lockheed Martin & Johnson & Johnson.

Wednesday we hear from Tesla, Abbott Labs, Baker Hughes, Discover Financial Services, IBM, Travelers, Morgan Stanley & Las Vegas Sands.

AT&T, Blackstone, American Express, Phillip Morris International, Seagate Technology & Rite Aid are set to report earnings on Thursday & on Friday we hear updates from Freeport-McMoran, SAP, Procter & Gamble, and more.

See you back here next week!

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACTS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM, KORU, ITB, EWU, ERX, VNQ, UFO, ISRA, or DON AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF lost -0.05% this past week, faring the best of the indexes that we review here this week, as investors sought safety in larger cap names.

Their RSI & MACD are beginning to show more signs of weakness compared to last week & this past week’s trading volumes subsided, signaling less confidence than last week’s jumpy but bullish week.

SPY has support at the $407.06, $406.62 & $403.87/share (10 day moving average) price levels, with resistance overhead at the $410.48, $411.92 & $416.72/share price levels.

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF dropped -0.9% last week; trailing the S&P 500, but being preferred over the Russell 2000 small cap names.

Their RSI is slightly more overbought than SPY’s & their MACD is beginning to curl over bearishly, with relatively average volume to confirm the sentiment.

QQQ has support at the $314.93 (10 day moving average), $313.19 & $312.16/share price levels, making for a decent zone before the next level at $309.30 & they have resistance at the $321.63, $327.77 & $332.51/share price levels.

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF lost -2.53% over the past week, as investors looked to flee smaller cap names & many pivoted into large cap, safer stocks.

Their RSI is below neutral trending towards oversold & their MACD is beginning to signal bearishness, after a month & change of above average trading volume to confirm sentiment.

IWM has support at the $172.67, $169.71 & $169.05/share price levels, with resistance at the $174.63, $174.93 (10 day moving average) & $175.13/share price levels.

Let’s dive into some of the best & worst performing sectors & geo-locations based on this week’s technical ratings data!

Euro STOXX 50 (FEZ), Argentina (ARGT), Aerospace & Defense (DFEN) & Fundamental International Large Companies (FNDF) Are All Bullishly Leading The Market

FEZ, the SPDR EURO STOXX 50 ETF has gained +16.81% over the past year, rebounding +50.02% from their 52 week low on 10/13/2022 (ex-distributions).

Their RSI is approaching overbought conditions at 64 & their MACD is beginning to show signs of weakness, as they’ve consolidated after a gap up 2 weeks ago.

Recent volumes have been below average compared to the year prior & their most recent candlestick configuration is signaling to proceed with caution in the near-term.

While their distribution yield provides a 2.7% cushion to long-term holders, unless employing an options strategy for protection, it would be wise to wait & see how they behave around their recent support levels before entering or adding to a position.

FEZ has support at the $44.36, $44.33 (10 day moving average) & $43.34/share price levels, which all appear below the aforementioned gap, with the only overhead resistance from the past 52 weeks occurring at the $45.46/share price level.

ARGT, the Global X MSCI Argentina ETF has climbed +10.91% over the past year & has grown +64.28% from their 52 week low on 7/14/2022 (ex-distributions).

Their RSI is neutral at 50.63, with their MACD signaling a near-term decline is on the horizon.

Recent trading volumes have been about average compared to the year prior, although their volume levels have been quite volatile over that time period & their Tuesday gap down has led to a range of uncertainty.

While they offer a 2.17% distribution yield for long-term holders annually, unless using a long/short strategy for protection against the downside, it looks best to wait to enter or add to a position until their price has further consolidated.

ARGT has support at the $37.09, $35.02 & $32.95/share price levels, with resistance at the $38.31, $38.41 (10 day moving average) & $38.83/share (50 day moving average) price levels.

DFEN, the Direxion Daily Aerospace & Defense Bull ETF has lost -9.56% over the past year, but has posted an impressive +80.04% comeback from their 52 week low on 9/29/2022 (ex-distributions).

Like ARGT, DFEN also has a neutral RSI at 50.57 & a MACD signaling that there is a near-term price correction on the horizon.

With trading volumes for 2023 being very low compared to the year prior, there is still uncertainty among market participants as to the value of DFEN’s shares.

With a modest 0.67% distribution yield for long-term shareholders they are another name worth following to wait for a more opportune entry point for.

DFEN has support at the $20.40 (10 day moving average), $20.25, $19.88/share price levels, as they try to break out & above their $20.76, $20.80 (50 day moving average) & $21.34/share resistance levels.

FNDF, the Schwab Fundamental International Large Company Index ETF has gained +1.97% over the past year, with a 26.64% recovery since their 52 week low of 10/13/2022 (ex-distributions).

While their 10 & 50 day moving averages are primed to cross bullishly in the coming week, their MACD is signaling near-term losses & consolidation.

With an RSI approaching the overbought end of neutral & roughly average volume, minus one of the gap up days recently, there still looks to be uncertainty in the near-term & their past week’s candlesticks are not particularly appealing.

With only 2.87% of protection to the downside via distribution yields for long-term shareholders, this one is worth watching for a more favorable entry-point, with opportunities to build profits with a long/short strategy that can be applied to new shares in the future.

FNDF has support at the $31.07 (50 day moving average), $31.03 & $31.01 (10 day moving average) price levels, with resistance at the $31.67, $31.86 & $32.11/share price levels.

Uranium (URA), SuperDividends (FDIV), Retail (XRT) & Global Timber & Forestry (WOOD) Are All Bearishly Lagging The Market

URA, the Global X Uranium ETF has dropped -29.5% over the past year, losing -33.06% from their 52 week high in April of 2022, but have recovered +8.05% since their 52 week low on 7/6/2022 (ex-distributions).

Their MACD is beginning to show bearish signals for the near-term, as their RSI enters into the oversold end of the neutral range at 39.43.

With lower than average recent trading volumes & the impending death cross of their 50 & 200 day moving averages, there appears to be more near-term pain in store for URA.

With only a 0.8% distribution yield annually for long-term holders, this will require a wait & see approach about an entry-point after observing how it behaves at support, but some insurance on the short side is worth looking into.

URA has support at the $19.06, $18.95 & $18.46/share price level, with resistance overhead at the $19.12, $19.35 & $19.40/share (10 day moving average) price levels.

SDIV, the Global X SuperDividend ETF has lost -6.14% over the past year, falling -7.04% from their 52 week high in April of 2022, but has gained +3.97% from their 52 week low on 10/21/2022 (ex-distributions).

Recent trading volumes have been about average compared to the year prior & their RSI is neutral.

SDIV’s MACD is beginning to signal short-term weakness & their behavior at their 10 day moving average will be important to see how it holds up as a support level.

Despite having an 11.41% distribution yield for long-term holders, that only covers losses up to $20.10/share, which based on the last 52 weeks of support points looks risky (current lowest is $20.76/share), making this name another to approach with caution or defensively.

SDIV has support at the $22.57, $22.56 (10 day moving average) & $21.77/share price levels, with resistance at the $22.81, $22.94 & $23.02/share price levels.

XRT, the SPDR S&P Retail ETF shed -16.06% over the past year, losing -22.41% from their 52 week high in April 2022, but has reclaimed +11.19% since their 52 week low of 9/30/2022 (ex-distributions).

Recent trading volumes have been about average compared to the year prior, with their RSI trending bearishly & their MACD is looking to roll over bearishly in the coming trading sessions.

With a 2.29% distribution yield, there is limited downside protection making it risky to be eyeing an entry or consider adding to an existing position & it would be more prudent to wait & see how they interact with support levels, or play a long/short defensive play while waiting on their price to become less volatile.

XRT has support at the $61.46, $61.04 & $60.39/share price levels, with resistance at the $61.79. $62.06 & $62.88/share price levels.

WOOD, the iShares Global Timber & Forestry ETF has fallen -17.47% over the past year, losing -24.64% since their 52 week high in April 2022, but gaining +11.46% since their 52 week low on 9/26/2022 (ex-distributions).

Trading volumes have been much lower than average compared to the year prior recently, after the death cross of the 50 & 200 day moving averages earlier in the week, showing traders aren’t sure of their proper valuation currently.

Their RSI & MACD appear ready to turn bearish, after Thursday’s +0.4% bounce helped keep them from falling more aggressively.

WOOD pays a 2.31% distribution yield to long-term holders, but that will not provide adequate protection against losses, making it advisable to watch how they interact with support levels & or play defensively while looking for an opportune entry point.

WOOD has support at the $70.81, $68.75 & $63.70/share price levels, with resistance overhead at the $71.47, $72.08 & $72.22/share price levels.

Tying It All Together

This upcoming week features many interesting bits of data being reported.

Monday we get Wholesale Inventories data at 10 am, with New York Fed President Williams speaking at 4:15 pm.

Tuesday at 6 am we get the NFIB Optimism Index, followed by Chicago Fed President Goolsbee speaking at 1:30 pm, Philadelphia Fed President Harker speaking at 6:30 pm & at 7:30 pm Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari speaks.

Wednesday will be the most eagerly anticipated day, with Consumer Price Index data, Core CPI, CPI Y-o-Y & Core CPI Y-o-Y all reported at 8:30 am, followed by Richmond Fed President Barkin speaking at 9:00 am, San Francisco Fed President Daly speaking at 12 pm & at 2 pm we get the Treasury Budget & FOMC minutes reported.

Thursday will also be important, with Producer Price Index, Core PPI, PPI Y-o-Y, Initial Jobless Claims & Continuing Jobless Claims all being reported at 8:30 am.

Friday will also be a busy day, with US Retail Sales, Retail Sales minus Autos, Import Price Index, & Import Prices minus Fuel being reported at 8:30 am

At 8:45 am Fed Governor Waller speaks, followed by Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization data at 9:15 am & Business Inventories & Consumer Sentiment reports out at 10 am.

It promises to be an interesting week ahead – see you back here next week!

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN FEZ, ARGT, DFEN, FNDF, URA, SDIV, XRT or WOOD AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***

SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF gained +3.45% this past week, with trading volumes falling more back in line with the average over the past year.

Their MACD is very bullish, but their 62.89 RSI is approaching overbought territory.

Resistance after the past week’s rally is at $410.48, $416.72 & $422.50, with support at the $407.06, $406.62 & $401.76/share price level.

QQQ, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF added +3.23% over the past week, with volumes also returning more to the average level for the past 52 weeks.

At 68, QQQ’s RSI is almost overbought, although their MACD is still showing bullish signals.

QQQ has support at the $313.93, $312.16 & $310.83 (10 day moving average), with overhead resistance at the $327.77, $331.51 & $338.56/share price levels.

IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF gained +3.85% last week, showing smaller cap stocks were favored compared to larger cap names.

They bucked the trend & has above average volume, during a volatile, but successful week.

Their RSI is neutral at 50.43 & MACD is bullish, but their 200 day moving average is 0.52% away & will be an interesting resistance point to watch for more insight into their future performance.

IWM has support at the $175.83, $175.13 & $174.63/share price levels, with resistance at the $179.33 (200 day moving average), $179.92 & $184.07/share price levels.

Let’s dive into the week’s report.

Global Gold Miners (RING), Europe (EURL), North American Tech (IGM) & Global Comm Services (IXP) Are All Bullishly Leading The Market

RING, the iShares MSCI Global Gold Miners ETF has lost -13.74% over the past year, but has recovered +51.72% (ex-distributions) since their 52 week low in September 2022.

Their RSI is approaching overbought at 66.87 & their MACD has begun curling over, signaling a cool down period in the near-term.

Given that their distribution yield is only 2.03% for long-term shareholders, it may be wisest to wait to see how they behave at their next test of support or trade an options strategy rather than buying long shares into uncertainty.

RING has support at the $24.53 (10 day moving average), $23.50, $23.38 & $23.37 (50 day moving average), with resistance overhead at the $26.15, $26.36, $26.68 & $28.58/share price levels.

EURL, the Direxion Daily FTSE Europe Bull 3x Shares ETF has lost -25% over the past 52 weeks, but has rebounded +128.04% (ex-distributions) since their low in October of 2022.

Their MACD is still bullish, while their RSI is neutral & recent trading volumes have been about average compared to the year prior.

After Thursday & Friday’s candlesticks & the back to back gap up day mid-week EURL should also be approached with caution, as their 1.68% distribution yield will only provide so much safety from a near-term shakeup in price.

EURL has support at the $21.15, $20.83 (50 day moving average), $20.74 & $19.95/share price levels, with resistance at the $21.83, $22.52, $22.73 & $23.08/share price levels, which are the key areas to be watching their behavior at currently.

IGM, the iShares North American Tech ETF has lost -14.12% over the past year, but has climbed +30.21% (ex-distributions) from their low of October 2022.

Their RSI is approaching overbought conditions at 67.49, as their MACD begins to show signals of exhausting.

Recent trading volumes have been below average compared to the year prior & their 0.48% distribution yield will not provide much cushion for safety, making IGM another candidate for options trading while waiting for their price to stabilize.

IGM has support levels to keep an eye on at the $336.83, $334.48, $328.38 (10 day moving average) & $323.42/share price level, with resistance at the $349.47, $351.10, $352.90 & $359.78/share levels.

IXP, the iShares Global Comm Services ETF dropped -14.8% over the past year, but has gained +29.05% (ex-distributions) since their low in November of 2022.

Their RSI is also approaching the overbought level & their MACD is beginning to show signals of losing momentum.

While long-term holders will receive 1.22% annually in the form of distributions, patchy low trading volumes raise concerns about IXP’s strength in the near-term & signal to hold off on a long-term position entry.

IXP has support at the $63.74, $63.39, $63.25 & $62.61 (10 day moving average) price levels, with resistance at the $64.33, $64.43, $65.84 & $65.98/share price levels.

Banks (KBE), Genomics Immunology and Healthcare (IDNA), Mortgage Real Estate (REM) & Brazil (BRZU) Are All Bearishly Lagging The Market

KBE, the SPDR S&P Bank ETF has lost -30.32% over the past year, losing -30.49% from the high of April 2022, but reclaiming +7.89% (ex-distributions) since their recent low.

Their RSI has recently recovered from being in oversold territory but remains on the oversold end of neutral after suffering sharp declines in March 2023 & MACD has crossed over bullishly while the price has consolidated over the past month.

Recent trading volumes have been very high compared to the year prior, and their 3.42% annual distribution yield will provide some protection against loss for long-term holders, but the price may still require more time to settle down making any near-term moves in the name without options protection unwise.

KBE has support at the $36.54 (10 day moving average), $34.83 & $34.33/share price levels, with resistance at the $37.70, $38.23 & $41.36/share price levels.

IDNA, the iShares Genomics Immunology & Healthcare ETF has lost -33.07% over the past year, dropping -35.22% from their high in April 2022, but has reclaimed +5.34% (ex-distributions) from their low of March 2023.

Their RSI is approaching neutral again, while their MACD is still bullish, but recent trading volumes have been very light compared to the year prior.

IDNA’s 0.58% distribution yield will not provide much protection for investors, so waiting to see how their price behaves around support/resistance areas will be imperative to find the most opportune entry point.

IDNA has support at the $22.94 & $22.09/share price levels, with resistance at the $23.55, $24.20 & $24.76/share price levels.

REM, the iShares Mortgage Real Estate Capped ETF has lost -26.34% over the past 52 weeks, losing -27.56% since their high in April 2022, while regaining +16.17% since their low in October 2022 (ex-distributions).

With a bullish MACD, REM’s RSI has recovered to just below neutral levels after their price slid most of the past 2 months.

While long-term holders receive an 11.55% distribution yield, their shaky recent trading volumes show that there is still uncertainty around where to value these shares at & it would be wisest to approach with caution.

REM has support at the $21.78, $21.13, $20.94 & $20.85 (10 day moving average)price levels, with resistance at the $22.11, $22.24, $22.60 & $22.87/share price levels.

BRZU, the Direxion Daily Brazil Bull 2x Shares ETF has lost -43.75% over the past year, shedding -48.5% since their high of April 2022 & has gained +20.47% (ex-distributions) since their low in July 2022.

Their MACD is beginning to show signs of waning enthusiasm, as their RSI is is re-approaching neutral, which when paired with their below average recent trading volumes is a good reason to wait & see how they interact with their nearest support/resistance levels before making an investment in them.

While their distribution yield is 5.06%, that is not enough protection to justify entry into a long-term position here.

BRZU has support at the $62.94, $62.13, $59.89 & $59.19 (10 day moving average) price levels, with resistance overhead at the $63.33, $64.14, $65.38 & $67.47/share price levels.

Tying It All Together

This week we hit the pavement running Monday, with St. Louis Fed President Bullard speaking at 8:30 am, followed by S&P final U.S. Manufacturing PMI at 9:45 am, ISM Manufacturing & Construction Spending data at 10 am & closing out with Fed. Governor Cook speaking at 4:15 pm.

Factory Orders & Job Openings data get reported on Tuesday at 10 am & at 6 pm Cleveland Fed President Mester speaks.

On Wednesday we get the ADP Employment data at 8:15 am, with U.S. Trade Balance data at 8:30 am, S&P Final U.S. Services PMI data at 9:45 am & the ISM Services report at 10 am.

Thursday kicks off with Initial Jobless Claims & Continuing Jobless Claims data at 8:30 am, with St. Louis Fed President Bullard Speaking at 10 am.

We close out with the US Unemployment Report, US Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Wages & Average Hourly Wages Y-o-Y at 8:30 am on Friday, followed by Consumer Credit data at 3 pm.

See you back here next week!

*** I DO NOT OWN SHARES OR OPTIONS CONTRACT POSITIONS IN SPY, QQQ, IWM, RING, EURL, IGM, IXP, KBE, IDNA, REM or BRZU AT THE TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS ARTICLE ***